It's gone unremarked on, but Trump has definitely improved a bit in the polling - he's moved from a 9.1% national deficit a few weeks ago to a 6.4% one now. This has almost entirely happened due to a decrease in the number of DKs, with Biden's 49% remaining pretty much constant throughout.
If you take The Hill/Harris X poll, Biden's lead is just three (43-40) with 9% unsure. The crosstabs don't make a lot of senses compared to other pollsters - among White voters Trump is up 16 points (50-34). I'm not convinced.
Trump's opponents have a problem because of the way they treat him and anybody who votes or supports him as complete anathem. Some of his supporters are reluctant to talk.
The result is the dems have no way of knowing if' shy Trump' exists and to what extent. That 9% could be genuinely unsure, or they could be wall to wall shy Trump supporters.
A 45% Tory vote share with Ipsos-Mori, and more people thought Labour was ready for government under Corbyn last November (!) than they do today under Starmer.
And yet the received wisdom is all about how wonderful Mr. Boring is and the terrrrrrrible trouble Boris and the Tories are in...
Of course.
It is incredible, the need to see Starmer as doing so fantastically well. Comparing the peak of the huge spike in Boris' net satisfaction ratings with the Opinium outliers is just telling yourself porkies, why bother?
A 45% Tory vote share with Ipsos-Mori, and more people thought Labour was ready for government under Corbyn last November (!) than they do today under Starmer.
And yet the received wisdom is all about how wonderful Mr. Boring is and the terrrrrrrible trouble Boris and the Tories are in...
Of course.
Once again you’re creating this all in your head. You really are obsessed.
A 45% Tory vote share with Ipsos-Mori, and more people thought Labour was ready for government under Corbyn last November (!) than they do today under Starmer.
And yet the received wisdom is all about how wonderful Mr. Boring is and the terrrrrrrible trouble Boris and the Tories are in...
A 45% Tory vote share with Ipsos-Mori, and more people thought Labour was ready for government under Corbyn last November (!) than they do today under Starmer.
And yet the received wisdom is all about how wonderful Mr. Boring is and the terrrrrrrible trouble Boris and the Tories are in...
Of course.
Excuse me while I adjust my book based on your razor-sharp analysis.
I was caned at school for throwing a cricket ball at a teacher. In truth, I couldn't throw and he wasn't watching the game he was supposed to be umpiring. Not that I bear grudges 40-odd years later.
(Come to think of it, probably every teacher to have wielded a cane in anger is dead now, or at least retired, since it was abolished 40 years ago by the lefty Thatcher government and you'd have needed to be 22 to be a teacher and probably 30 to be trusted with a stick by the 1970s.)
I know one teacher still working who started in the seventies. I’m not sure she would ever have caned anyone though.
A 45% Tory vote share with Ipsos-Mori, and more people thought Labour was ready for government under Corbyn last November (!) than they do today under Starmer.
And yet the received wisdom is all about how wonderful Mr. Boring is and the terrrrrrrible trouble Boris and the Tories are in...
Of course.
Excuse me while I adjust my book based on your razor-sharp analysis.
Every time it looks certain that Trump will lose, his Democratic opponents just take a massive sledgehammer to their own bollocks. They are not content with winning power and letting the rest follow, they're burning up with ideological frenzy and want to create their perfect United States of Woke right now. I'm not going to bet on this, because I could well be wrong, it happens, but it feels like they just have defeat written through them like a stick of rock.
I was caned at school for throwing a cricket ball at a teacher. In truth, I couldn't throw and he wasn't watching the game he was supposed to be umpiring. Not that I bear grudges 40-odd years later.
(Come to think of it, probably every teacher to have wielded a cane in anger is dead now, or at least retired, since it was abolished 40 years ago by the lefty Thatcher government and you'd have needed to be 22 to be a teacher and probably 30 to be trusted with a stick by the 1970s.)
I know one teacher still working who started in the seventies. I’m not sure she would ever have caned anyone though.
I got beaten with a slipper in my second year of Junior school (so aged eight or nine)(, I would think.
Every time it looks certain that Trump will lose, his Democratic opponents just take a massive sledgehammer to their own bollocks. They are not content with winning power and letting the rest follow, they're burning up with ideological frenzy and want to create their perfect United States of Woke right now. I'm not going to bet on this, because I could well be wrong, it happens, but it feels like they just have defeat written through them like a stick of rock.
The NRA was in the process of blowing itself up, so it was an incredibly dumb move.
I was caned at school for throwing a cricket ball at a teacher. In truth, I couldn't throw and he wasn't watching the game he was supposed to be umpiring. Not that I bear grudges 40-odd years later.
(Come to think of it, probably every teacher to have wielded a cane in anger is dead now, or at least retired, since it was abolished 40 years ago by the lefty Thatcher government and you'd have needed to be 22 to be a teacher and probably 30 to be trusted with a stick by the 1970s.)
I know one teacher still working who started in the seventies. I’m not sure she would ever have caned anyone though.
I got beaten with a slipper in my second year of Junior school (so aged eight or nine)(, I would think.
What happened? Did you say something about Radiohead?
On the 538 and RCP numbers, it's not Biden who is dropping, but Trump who is rising. Biden has been pretty consistently on 49% +/- 1.5% for about four months, and is almost exactly on that average today.
What's happening is that some people who went Trump -> Don't Know / Won't Say, have gone back to Trump.
A 45% Tory vote share with Ipsos-Mori, and more people thought Labour was ready for government under Corbyn last November (!) than they do today under Starmer.
And yet the received wisdom is all about how wonderful Mr. Boring is and the terrrrrrrible trouble Boris and the Tories are in...
Of course.
Once again you’re creating this all in your head. You really are obsessed.
Yeah, if I was a Tory I'd be out celebrating all the time and getting pissed, yet this one is always here telling us how good it's going
And the Lib Dems near to crossover with the Greens
Lots of disaffected Corbynistas joining the single issue fanatics, and many centrists quietly drifting back to Labour?
To be honest if you believe the consensus on here there is no explanation for the Conservative lead but maybe this forum generally does not reflect public opinion
What consensus? This place is full of tory supporters.
Really ?
Really. How many people on here would call themselves out and out Labour supporters? Not many.
I mean I’m a Labour member and I wouldn’t call myself a Labour supporter.
Compare that to how many people on here who are out and out Conservative Party supporters.
Night and day.
Site is dripping with fanatical Tories , they have their grafters on here spending inordinate amount of hours supporting any and every atrocity as being great and denigrating everybody else. You know the ones.
I certainly know Scots Nats who are world champions at that Malc
Certainly has potential to turn out numbers of low-turnout pro-gun voters, mostly in exurbs, small towns & rural areas.
Note that in WA State, Republican Loren Culp, a pro-gun police chief from a small town in rural Eastern WA is coming in 2nd for Governor (behind incumbent Democrat Jay Inslee) in Evergreen State's August 4, 2020 Top-Two Primary.
In a gubernatorial field of 36 - count 'em 36 - hopefuls, Gov Inslee is currently winning 51.3% versus Loren Culp at 16.9%, trailed in 3rd place by fellow Republican Joshua Freed with 7.8%
Clup's support was visible across many rural parts of WA via profusion of signs large and small posted at intersections and along roadsides.
I was caned at school for throwing a cricket ball at a teacher. In truth, I couldn't throw and he wasn't watching the game he was supposed to be umpiring. Not that I bear grudges 40-odd years later.
(Come to think of it, probably every teacher to have wielded a cane in anger is dead now, or at least retired, since it was abolished 40 years ago by the lefty Thatcher government and you'd have needed to be 22 to be a teacher and probably 30 to be trusted with a stick by the 1970s.)
I know one teacher still working who started in the seventies. I’m not sure she would ever have caned anyone though.
I got beaten with a slipper in my second year of Junior school (so aged eight or nine)(, I would think.
What happened? Did you say something about Radiohead?
I was fighting with another child when the teacher came in. She was unimpressed.
Can anyone explain why so many people who give a positive test can't be contacted?
Not talking about their contacts - talking about the original person who tested positive just 24 or 48 hours earlier.
If someone dies in road accident etc, police go round to next of kin and find them. No messing around. They wait outside if necessary if person is out. I imagine they trace 99%+.
So what is going in? Person who tested positive can only have gone away in tiny fraction of cases. Given how little work contact tracers are doing, why not get them to do same job as police? If no response to call/text/email, go round in person and wait.
If you 100% have to trace somebody you can if you try hard enough.
Can anyone explain why so many people who give a positive test can't be contacted?
Not talking about their contacts - talking about the original person who tested positive just 24 or 48 hours earlier.
If someone dies in road accident etc, police go round to next of kin and find them. No messing around. They wait outside if necessary if person is out. I imagine they trace 99%+.
So what is going in? Person who tested positive can only have gone away in tiny fraction of cases. Given how little work contact tracers are doing, why not get them to do same job as police? If no response to call/text/email, go round in person and wait.
If you 100% have to trace somebody you can if you try hard enough.
I agree it seems daft. We live in an era of Big Brother and the overbearing/metadata/surveillance state. You'd think we could do a bit better than this. That's why I argue GCHQ should be given the job.
A 45% Tory vote share with Ipsos-Mori, and more people thought Labour was ready for government under Corbyn last November (!) than they do today under Starmer.
And yet the received wisdom is all about how wonderful Mr. Boring is and the terrrrrrrible trouble Boris and the Tories are in...
Of course.
Once again you’re creating this all in your head. You really are obsessed.
Once again you've excelled yourself in tediousness. Well done!
A 45% Tory vote share with Ipsos-Mori, and more people thought Labour was ready for government under Corbyn last November (!) than they do today under Starmer.
And yet the received wisdom is all about how wonderful Mr. Boring is and the terrrrrrrible trouble Boris and the Tories are in...
Of course.
Once again you’re creating this all in your head. You really are obsessed.
Yeah, if I was a Tory I'd be out celebrating all the time and getting pissed, yet this one is always here telling us how good it's going
Whereas you keep telling us that crossover is just about to arrive and the majority is already lost...
I did say a few weeks ago that the bad news and revelations for Donald Trump are going to keep coming. Its getting into hard legal stuff now. not just stories about the guy's general shitty personage.
It is clear that investigations into his business dealings, his money and associated corruption therein have been underway for some time and there is more to come there.
The NRA issue is a potential tool for him to cry foul but who is listening? He already has his core support. More importantly Trump is not as flush with donors and the NRA is a player for the GOP and was for him in 2016.
The stories and revelations are not over yet. I reckoned a few weeks ago that the chances of the GOP looking to jettison him was around the 30% mark. Its still there but its late. Ironically the NRA issue might ensure their base is motivated when at the moment its creaking and may have a surprise stay at home element but is that base Trump's..or the GOP?.
There are a few things to watch for: From the GOP Keep an eye out for more stories around his health appearing within the next 4-6 weeks, its as liable to come out of his own party as anywhere
From Within the government More leaks on poor decisions, corrupt activities, inappropriate associations and personal gain
The law If his associates, like the NRA bosses, start getting picked off in legal cases.
Elsewhere If there was any fear about taking him on because of his position, that dam is leaking if not outright broken and people who have stayed silent once they feel like there is less risk will start to talk. This is a wild card area because that guy has crossed a lot of people.
Research shows Covid-19 cases in the community went down after restrictions were relaxed . . . Researchers carried out initial swab testing of 150,000 people in May, while full lockdown was still in place, and again following the easing of restrictions.
Of the 159,199 swab tests carried out in the latest two weeks, just 123 were positive.
At any one point in the two weeks between June 19 and July 8, there were 39,000 people with Covid-19, compared to 74,000 in May.
This is a completely wildcard act. I can only see t being bad for the Dems short term and I sense a market move in my favour coming up.
Also I had greened out of this market a while ago as I am very nervous about the mail in vote being totally fucked with. I am putting no act passed Trump or the GOP.
A 45% Tory vote share with Ipsos-Mori, and more people thought Labour was ready for government under Corbyn last November (!) than they do today under Starmer.
And yet the received wisdom is all about how wonderful Mr. Boring is and the terrrrrrrible trouble Boris and the Tories are in...
Of course.
Once again you’re creating this all in your head. You really are obsessed.
Yeah, if I was a Tory I'd be out celebrating all the time and getting pissed, yet this one is always here telling us how good it's going
Whereas you keep telling us that crossover is just about to arrive and the majority is already lost...
The general consesus on thios board over the last few months is cross over will come between January and summer 2021.
"The Attorney General of New York took action today to dissolve the National Rifle Association, following an 18-month investigation that found evidence the powerful gun rights group is "fraught with fraud and abuse."
Attorney General Letitia James claims in a lawsuit filed Thursday that she found financial misconduct in the millions of dollars, and that it contributed to a loss of more than $64 million over a three year period."
I don't get what some of you are saying. Are they supposed to say "Oh but it's an election year and we don't want to give Trump something he can use so let's just drop it and pretend nothing happened"?
If Trump were shown not to be in a fit mental state, would he be able to grant a pardon to all the friends and crooks who surround him?
US Constitution Amendment XXV - Section 4 "Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principle officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President"
Which would give Acting President full pardoning power.
BUT do NOT hold yer breath waiting for invocation of 25th amendment.
"The Attorney General of New York took action today to dissolve the National Rifle Association, following an 18-month investigation that found evidence the powerful gun rights group is "fraught with fraud and abuse."
Attorney General Letitia James claims in a lawsuit filed Thursday that she found financial misconduct in the millions of dollars, and that it contributed to a loss of more than $64 million over a three year period."
I don't get what some of you are saying. Are they supposed to say "Oh but it's an election year and we don't want to give Trump something he can use so let's just drop it and pretend nothing happened"?
Legal mills grind slow. In this case, maybe would have been better to grind a bit slower.
BUT the whole NRA investigation has turned up a lot of dirt from what was already a self-created disaster for the organization. Which is what you get when you choose cretins like Wayne La Pierre and clowns like Oliver North as leaders.
When they were trying to fill an A380 there were lots of lovely cheap seats on them - pretty good service too - sadly they retired those and now use an A350 - currently only weekly, rather than daily, and non Malaysians aren't allowed into Malaysia currently.
On the 538 and RCP numbers, it's not Biden who is dropping, but Trump who is rising. Biden has been pretty consistently on 49% +/- 1.5% for about four months, and is almost exactly on that average today.
What's happening is that some people who went Trump -> Don't Know / Won't Say, have gone back to Trump.
All those Dems who are either thinking it's all going to be fine, the nightmare is over, or even planning who will have what job in Biden's administration better wake up and get a grip.
"The Attorney General of New York took action today to dissolve the National Rifle Association, following an 18-month investigation that found evidence the powerful gun rights group is "fraught with fraud and abuse."
Attorney General Letitia James claims in a lawsuit filed Thursday that she found financial misconduct in the millions of dollars, and that it contributed to a loss of more than $64 million over a three year period."
I don't get what some of you are saying. Are they supposed to say "Oh but it's an election year and we don't want to give Trump something he can use so let's just drop it and pretend nothing happened"?
Yes, probably.
This is a totemic issue. And anyway if there's been misconduct why not bring charges against the individuals, rather than trying to disband the organisation?
A 45% Tory vote share with Ipsos-Mori, and more people thought Labour was ready for government under Corbyn last November (!) than they do today under Starmer.
And yet the received wisdom is all about how wonderful Mr. Boring is and the terrrrrrrible trouble Boris and the Tories are in...
Of course.
Once again you’re creating this all in your head. You really are obsessed.
Yeah, if I was a Tory I'd be out celebrating all the time and getting pissed, yet this one is always here telling us how good it's going
Whereas you keep telling us that crossover is just about to arrive and the majority is already lost...
The general consesus on thios board over the last few months is cross over will come between January and summer 2021.
But that's not the consensus of the actual person I was speaking to, is it? As for it happening in 'January to summer' of next year, Ed Miliband's Labour achieved crossover long before that point, and look how that turned out for him...
I was caned at school for throwing a cricket ball at a teacher. In truth, I couldn't throw and he wasn't watching the game he was supposed to be umpiring. Not that I bear grudges 40-odd years later.
(Come to think of it, probably every teacher to have wielded a cane in anger is dead now, or at least retired, since it was abolished 40 years ago by the lefty Thatcher government and you'd have needed to be 22 to be a teacher and probably 30 to be trusted with a stick by the 1970s.)
I know one teacher still working who started in the seventies. I’m not sure she would ever have caned anyone though.
I got beaten with a slipper in my second year of Junior school (so aged eight or nine)(, I would think.
The head at the first school I worked at told me a tale once from his own school days, back in the fifties. On a snowy day a snowball was thrown which smashed a window (as it had been wrapped round a stone. The head of that school called all the boys in to the hall and asked for the snowball thrower to own up.
A 45% Tory vote share with Ipsos-Mori, and more people thought Labour was ready for government under Corbyn last November (!) than they do today under Starmer.
And yet the received wisdom is all about how wonderful Mr. Boring is and the terrrrrrrible trouble Boris and the Tories are in...
Of course.
Once again you’re creating this all in your head. You really are obsessed.
Yeah, if I was a Tory I'd be out celebrating all the time and getting pissed, yet this one is always here telling us how good it's going
Whereas you keep telling us that crossover is just about to arrive and the majority is already lost...
The general consesus on thios board over the last few months is cross over will come between January and summer 2021.
But that's not the consensus of the actual person I was speaking to, is it? As for it happening in 'January to summer' of next year, Ed Miliband's Labour achieved crossover long before that point, and look how that turned out for him...
Maybe Johnson can promise an EU referendum too. It worked for Cameron.
Also, I am not sure economic armageddon was coming down the track when Ed was the challenger.
Can anyone explain why so many people who give a positive test can't be contacted?
Not talking about their contacts - talking about the original person who tested positive just 24 or 48 hours earlier.
If someone dies in road accident etc, police go round to next of kin and find them. No messing around. They wait outside if necessary if person is out. I imagine they trace 99%+.
So what is going in? Person who tested positive can only have gone away in tiny fraction of cases. Given how little work contact tracers are doing, why not get them to do same job as police? If no response to call/text/email, go round in person and wait.
If you 100% have to trace somebody you can if you try hard enough.
It is the problem with physically distant phone based tracking. The council public health teams do as you suggest. If no reply they go door knocking. They also speak to the whole household rather than for example 5 different tracers trying to contact 5 different people in the same house.
All those Dems who are either thinking it's all going to be fine, the nightmare is over, or even planning who will have what job in Biden's administration better wake up and get a grip.
This ain't over by a long, long way.
No one who campaigns seriously ever thinks in those terms. Every vote is to be earned not assumed.
Oddly enough, a few less than favourable polls will give the Democratic campaign a good kick but I'm a long way from being convinced there is any kind of mass swing back toward the President.
Looking at the most recent State polling - first, Maine where a 3-point Clinton win is now a 15-point lead for Biden. ME-2, which Trump won by 10 last time, is now a dead heat with Trump up by 1 so once again that 4-6% swing we've seen in many State polls.
In South Carolina, a 14-point Trump lead in 2016 is now a 5-point Trump lead which fits nicely in the 4-6% swing range. Kentucky has seen a 30-point lead for Trump become a 9-point advantage so is Biden doing disproportionately better in states where he has no chance?
Finally, the Rasmussen Trump approval numbers are back negative (46-52) having even positive earlier in the week.
What a third-rate incompetent little country we have become.
Utterly ridiculous. I have never seem an explaantion for that guidance terminology which is even slightly convincing. The police have been provided with countless examples of words they could use to make very clear allegations will be treated seriously without crossing the line like that, yet they persist in it. They don't accept any criticism.
What a third-rate incompetent little country we have become.
That's what happens when institutions like the police get taken over by left-wing retards.
It’s not being left-wing that is the problem. It’s being stupidly sentimental, not understanding the law or knowing what is needed to carry out an investigation properly.
It’s like not knowing your A,B,C.
Time to repost these I think. Though I may as well spit into the wind, for all the good any of this will do.
I've only stumbled upon it because all of the players at the PGA Championship appear to be wearing blue. There is a suggestion on Twitter that that is what it's about.
What a third-rate incompetent little country we have become.
Utterly ridiculous. I have never seem an explaantion for that guidance terminology which is even slightly convincing. The police have been provided with countless examples of words they could use to make very clear allegations will be treated seriously without crossing the line like that, yet they persist in it. They don't accept any criticism.
I think we know that in the past the authorities have been guilty of dismissing allegations far too easily. But rather than insist that they investigate thoroughly all claims of sexual abuse, the policy has become to put together a case for prosecution even if the evidence isn't there.
If the police announced a change in policy, the Guardian would be running a story saying that the police won't believe rape victims, etc. etc.
A 45% Tory vote share with Ipsos-Mori, and more people thought Labour was ready for government under Corbyn last November (!) than they do today under Starmer.
And yet the received wisdom is all about how wonderful Mr. Boring is and the terrrrrrrible trouble Boris and the Tories are in...
Of course.
Once again you’re creating this all in your head. You really are obsessed.
Yeah, if I was a Tory I'd be out celebrating all the time and getting pissed, yet this one is always here telling us how good it's going
Whereas you keep telling us that crossover is just about to arrive and the majority is already lost...
The general consesus on thios board over the last few months is cross over will come between January and summer 2021.
But that's not the consensus of the actual person I was speaking to, is it? As for it happening in 'January to summer' of next year, Ed Miliband's Labour achieved crossover long before that point, and look how that turned out for him...
Maybe Johnson can promise an EU referendum too. It worked for Cameron.
Also, I am not sure economic armageddon was coming down the track when Ed was the challenger.
Economic armageddon is coming for the whole world (absent a globally co-ordinated pressing of the 'print' button by all the central bankers, which would be an excellent idea in these unique circumstances), but one way or another it will be over four years from now - even the Great Depression played out within that time frame.
He's improved, and Biden is definitely not out of his reach. On the other hand, President Trump is doing worse (relatively) than at the same time in 2016 (and perhaps more importantly, Biden is doing a lot better than Hillary), and therefore he needs to do correspondingly better.
What a third-rate incompetent little country we have become.
Utterly ridiculous. I have never seem an explaantion for that guidance terminology which is even slightly convincing. The police have been provided with countless examples of words they could use to make very clear allegations will be treated seriously without crossing the line like that, yet they persist in it. They don't accept any criticism.
I think we know that in the past the authorities have been guilty of dismissing allegations far too easily. But rather than insist that they investigate thoroughly all claims of sexual abuse, the policy has become to put together a case for prosecution even if the evidence isn't there.
If the police announced a change in policy, the Guardian would be running a story saying that the police won't believe rape victims, etc. etc.
From my header - “ “Any process that imposes an artificial state of mind upon an investigator is, necessarily, a flawed process. An investigator, in any reputable system of justice, must be impartial. The imposed ‘obligation to believe’ removes that impartiality.”
If the police allow sentimental beliefs, preconceived opinions and assumptions, pressure from the media or politicians to override the judgments they need to make, they are doing a profound disservice – to the victims (who need their complaints taken seriously and investigated properly, a crucially important difference to simply being believed), to the defendants (who are entitled not to be accused publicly – or at all – on the basis of opinion unsupported by any evidence), to the public’s faith in policing, to the administration of justice itself.”
What a third-rate incompetent little country we have become.
Utterly ridiculous. I have never seem an explaantion for that guidance terminology which is even slightly convincing. The police have been provided with countless examples of words they could use to make very clear allegations will be treated seriously without crossing the line like that, yet they persist in it. They don't accept any criticism.
I think we know that in the past the authorities have been guilty of dismissing allegations far too easily. But rather than insist that they investigate thoroughly all claims of sexual abuse, the policy has become to put together a case for prosecution even if the evidence isn't there.
If the police announced a change in policy, the Guardian would be running a story saying that the police won't believe rape victims, etc. etc.
From my header - “ “Any process that imposes an artificial state of mind upon an investigator is, necessarily, a flawed process. An investigator, in any reputable system of justice, must be impartial. The imposed ‘obligation to believe’ removes that impartiality.”
If the police allow sentimental beliefs, preconceived opinions and assumptions, pressure from the media or politicians to override the judgments they need to make, they are doing a profound disservice – to the victims (who need their complaints taken seriously and investigated properly, a crucially important difference to simply being believed), to the defendants (who are entitled not to be accused publicly – or at all – on the basis of opinion unsupported by any evidence), to the public’s faith in policing, to the administration of justice itself.”
It's not rocket science, is it? That's why I think it is ideological.
A 45% Tory vote share with Ipsos-Mori, and more people thought Labour was ready for government under Corbyn last November (!) than they do today under Starmer.
And yet the received wisdom is all about how wonderful Mr. Boring is and the terrrrrrrible trouble Boris and the Tories are in...
Of course.
Once again you’re creating this all in your head. You really are obsessed.
Yeah, if I was a Tory I'd be out celebrating all the time and getting pissed, yet this one is always here telling us how good it's going
Whereas you keep telling us that crossover is just about to arrive and the majority is already lost...
The general consesus on thios board over the last few months is cross over will come between January and summer 2021.
But that's not the consensus of the actual person I was speaking to, is it? As for it happening in 'January to summer' of next year, Ed Miliband's Labour achieved crossover long before that point, and look how that turned out for him...
Maybe Johnson can promise an EU referendum too. It worked for Cameron.
Also, I am not sure economic armageddon was coming down the track when Ed was the challenger.
Economic armageddon is coming for the whole world (absent a globally co-ordinated pressing of the 'print' button by all the central bankers, which would be an excellent idea in these unique circumstances), but one way or another it will be over four years from now - even the Great Depression played out within that time frame.
You may well be right, although colour me unconvinced.
In a time of massive economic upheaval incumbency is most likely a significant disadvantage.
Good luck with the idea that four years will be enough to see us back to economic equilibrium.
What a third-rate incompetent little country we have become.
Utterly ridiculous. I have never seem an explaantion for that guidance terminology which is even slightly convincing. The police have been provided with countless examples of words they could use to make very clear allegations will be treated seriously without crossing the line like that, yet they persist in it. They don't accept any criticism.
I think we know that in the past the authorities have been guilty of dismissing allegations far too easily. But rather than insist that they investigate thoroughly all claims of sexual abuse, the policy has become to put together a case for prosecution even if the evidence isn't there.
If the police announced a change in policy, the Guardian would be running a story saying that the police won't believe rape victims, etc. etc.
From my header - “ “Any process that imposes an artificial state of mind upon an investigator is, necessarily, a flawed process. An investigator, in any reputable system of justice, must be impartial. The imposed ‘obligation to believe’ removes that impartiality.”
If the police allow sentimental beliefs, preconceived opinions and assumptions, pressure from the media or politicians to override the judgments they need to make, they are doing a profound disservice – to the victims (who need their complaints taken seriously and investigated properly, a crucially important difference to simply being believed), to the defendants (who are entitled not to be accused publicly – or at all – on the basis of opinion unsupported by any evidence), to the public’s faith in policing, to the administration of justice itself.”
It's not rocket science, is it? That's why I thinking he’d by it is ideological.
Too much thinking by those in public life is infected by a sort of ideological sentimentality, an assumption that feelings - and how strong they are - however ridiculous and however outweighed by other factors - should be the only or main determinant of policy.
A 45% Tory vote share with Ipsos-Mori, and more people thought Labour was ready for government under Corbyn last November (!) than they do today under Starmer.
And yet the received wisdom is all about how wonderful Mr. Boring is and the terrrrrrrible trouble Boris and the Tories are in...
Of course.
Once again you’re creating this all in your head. You really are obsessed.
Yeah, if I was a Tory I'd be out celebrating all the time and getting pissed, yet this one is always here telling us how good it's going
Whereas you keep telling us that crossover is just about to arrive and the majority is already lost...
The general consesus on thios board over the last few months is cross over will come between January and summer 2021.
But that's not the consensus of the actual person I was speaking to, is it? As for it happening in 'January to summer' of next year, Ed Miliband's Labour achieved crossover long before that point, and look how that turned out for him...
Maybe Johnson can promise an EU referendum too. It worked for Cameron.
Also, I am not sure economic armageddon was coming down the track when Ed was the challenger.
Economic armageddon is coming for the whole world (absent a globally co-ordinated pressing of the 'print' button by all the central bankers, which would be an excellent idea in these unique circumstances), but one way or another it will be over four years from now - even the Great Depression played out within that time frame.
UK exports were $5.7bn in 1925. They only surpassed that level again in 1948 - that's 23 years later. So, sure, the Great Depression may have ended and growth resumed, but people didn't feel comfortable again for a long, long time.
What a third-rate incompetent little country we have become.
Utterly ridiculous. I have never seem an explaantion for that guidance terminology which is even slightly convincing. The police have been provided with countless examples of words they could use to make very clear allegations will be treated seriously without crossing the line like that, yet they persist in it. They don't accept any criticism.
I think we know that in the past the authorities have been guilty of dismissing allegations far too easily. But rather than insist that they investigate thoroughly all claims of sexual abuse, the policy has become to put together a case for prosecution even if the evidence isn't there.
If the police announced a change in policy, the Guardian would be running a story saying that the police won't believe rape victims, etc. etc.
I'm sure they would, but since what is happening instead is not a solution, and in fact is detrimental to justice, the authorities should have the sense and fortitude to put up with it. It's far far too important to let stand.
A 45% Tory vote share with Ipsos-Mori, and more people thought Labour was ready for government under Corbyn last November (!) than they do today under Starmer.
And yet the received wisdom is all about how wonderful Mr. Boring is and the terrrrrrrible trouble Boris and the Tories are in...
Of course.
Once again you’re creating this all in your head. You really are obsessed.
Yeah, if I was a Tory I'd be out celebrating all the time and getting pissed, yet this one is always here telling us how good it's going
Whereas you keep telling us that crossover is just about to arrive and the majority is already lost...
The general consesus on thios board over the last few months is cross over will come between January and summer 2021.
But that's not the consensus of the actual person I was speaking to, is it? As for it happening in 'January to summer' of next year, Ed Miliband's Labour achieved crossover long before that point, and look how that turned out for him...
Maybe Johnson can promise an EU referendum too. It worked for Cameron.
Also, I am not sure economic armageddon was coming down the track when Ed was the challenger.
Economic armageddon is coming for the whole world (absent a globally co-ordinated pressing of the 'print' button by all the central bankers, which would be an excellent idea in these unique circumstances), but one way or another it will be over four years from now - even the Great Depression played out within that time frame.
UK exports were $5.7bn in 1925. They only surpassed that level again in 1948 - that's 23 years later. So, sure, the Great Depression may have ended and growth resumed, but people didn't feel comfortable again for a long, long time.
And there was a bloody great World War in the meanwhile.
"The Attorney General of New York took action today to dissolve the National Rifle Association, following an 18-month investigation that found evidence the powerful gun rights group is "fraught with fraud and abuse."
Attorney General Letitia James claims in a lawsuit filed Thursday that she found financial misconduct in the millions of dollars, and that it contributed to a loss of more than $64 million over a three year period."
I don't get what some of you are saying. Are they supposed to say "Oh but it's an election year and we don't want to give Trump something he can use so let's just drop it and pretend nothing happened"?
Agreed. Are we really at the point where people are afraid to enforce the law because it might wind up a few Republican voters ?
"The Attorney General of New York took action today to dissolve the National Rifle Association, following an 18-month investigation that found evidence the powerful gun rights group is "fraught with fraud and abuse."
Attorney General Letitia James claims in a lawsuit filed Thursday that she found financial misconduct in the millions of dollars, and that it contributed to a loss of more than $64 million over a three year period."
I don't get what some of you are saying. Are they supposed to say "Oh but it's an election year and we don't want to give Trump something he can use so let's just drop it and pretend nothing happened"?
Agreed. Are we really at the point where people are afraid to enforce the law because it might wind up a few Republican voters ?
"The Attorney General of New York took action today to dissolve the National Rifle Association, following an 18-month investigation that found evidence the powerful gun rights group is "fraught with fraud and abuse."
Attorney General Letitia James claims in a lawsuit filed Thursday that she found financial misconduct in the millions of dollars, and that it contributed to a loss of more than $64 million over a three year period."
I don't get what some of you are saying. Are they supposed to say "Oh but it's an election year and we don't want to give Trump something he can use so let's just drop it and pretend nothing happened"?
Agreed. Are we really at the point where people are afraid to enforce the law because it might wind up a few Republican voters ?
I don't think they should halt legal proceedings because it is an election year. I'm just worried that it will help Trump. If that is so, it's almost a shame the investigation wasn't longer.
It is what is is, but it will be intensely political and we can only hope it doesn't help Trump as much as some fear.
What a third-rate incompetent little country we have become.
Utterly ridiculous. I have never seem an explaantion for that guidance terminology which is even slightly convincing. The police have been provided with countless examples of words they could use to make very clear allegations will be treated seriously without crossing the line like that, yet they persist in it. They don't accept any criticism.
I think we know that in the past the authorities have been guilty of dismissing allegations far too easily. But rather than insist that they investigate thoroughly all claims of sexual abuse, the policy has become to put together a case for prosecution even if the evidence isn't there.
If the police announced a change in policy, the Guardian would be running a story saying that the police won't believe rape victims, etc. etc.
From my header - “ “Any process that imposes an artificial state of mind upon an investigator is, necessarily, a flawed process. An investigator, in any reputable system of justice, must be impartial. The imposed ‘obligation to believe’ removes that impartiality.”
If the police allow sentimental beliefs, preconceived opinions and assumptions, pressure from the media or politicians to override the judgments they need to make, they are doing a profound disservice – to the victims (who need their complaints taken seriously and investigated properly, a crucially important difference to simply being believed), to the defendants (who are entitled not to be accused publicly – or at all – on the basis of opinion unsupported by any evidence), to the public’s faith in policing, to the administration of justice itself.”
It's not rocket science, is it? That's why I thinking he’d by it is ideological.
Too much thinking by those in public life is infected by a sort of ideological sentimentality, an assumption that feelings - and how strong they are - however ridiculous and however outweighed by other factors - should be the only or main determinant of policy.
"The Attorney General of New York took action today to dissolve the National Rifle Association, following an 18-month investigation that found evidence the powerful gun rights group is "fraught with fraud and abuse."
Attorney General Letitia James claims in a lawsuit filed Thursday that she found financial misconduct in the millions of dollars, and that it contributed to a loss of more than $64 million over a three year period."
I don't get what some of you are saying. Are they supposed to say "Oh but it's an election year and we don't want to give Trump something he can use so let's just drop it and pretend nothing happened"?
Yes, probably.
This is a totemic issue. And anyway if there's been misconduct why not bring charges against the individuals, rather than trying to disband the organisation?
Under NY State law, organizations incorporated with the state have significant legal obligations. Removals of charters is sanction for misbehavior.
NRA could (and likely will) incorporate in a more obliging state. BUT until that happens, they are bound to follow the law NOT flout it.
Comments
Rudy Giuliani
Genuine laugh out loud.
The result is the dems have no way of knowing if' shy Trump' exists and to what extent. That 9% could be genuinely unsure, or they could be wall to wall shy Trump supporters.
His untamed political instincts, once treated by Republicans with an almost mystical reverence, look increasingly unlikely to stave off defeat.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/04/trump-biden-bag-tricks-giuliani-391081
Help. Please make it stop. The hope is killing me.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1291435765575176192
A measure of what Johnson is taking on.
If the lib dems pledged to fight the Johnson planning laws all they way that could be a way back into some tory constituencies.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/376097-trump-take-the-guns-first-go-through-due-process-second
Maybe Trump has mental issues and has forgotten his previous statements?
What's happening is that some people who went Trump -> Don't Know / Won't Say, have gone back to Trump.
Note that in WA State, Republican Loren Culp, a pro-gun police chief from a small town in rural Eastern WA is coming in 2nd for Governor (behind incumbent Democrat Jay Inslee) in Evergreen State's August 4, 2020 Top-Two Primary.
In a gubernatorial field of 36 - count 'em 36 - hopefuls, Gov Inslee is currently winning 51.3% versus Loren Culp at 16.9%, trailed in 3rd place by fellow Republican Joshua Freed with 7.8%
Clup's support was visible across many rural parts of WA via profusion of signs large and small posted at intersections and along roadsides.
Not talking about their contacts - talking about the original person who tested positive just 24 or 48 hours earlier.
If someone dies in road accident etc, police go round to next of kin and find them. No messing around. They wait outside if necessary if person is out. I imagine they trace 99%+.
So what is going in? Person who tested positive can only have gone away in tiny fraction of cases. Given how little work contact tracers are doing, why not get them to do same job as police? If no response to call/text/email, go round in person and wait.
If you 100% have to trace somebody you can if you try hard enough.
PPE that doesn't P?
Track and Trace that can't track and won't trace...
Surely not...
It is clear that investigations into his business dealings, his money and associated corruption therein have been underway for some time and there is more to come there.
The NRA issue is a potential tool for him to cry foul but who is listening? He already has his core support. More importantly Trump is not as flush with donors and the NRA is a player for the GOP and was for him in 2016.
The stories and revelations are not over yet. I reckoned a few weeks ago that the chances of the GOP looking to jettison him was around the 30% mark. Its still there but its late. Ironically the NRA issue might ensure their base is motivated when at the moment its creaking and may have a surprise stay at home element but is that base Trump's..or the GOP?.
There are a few things to watch for:
From the GOP
Keep an eye out for more stories around his health appearing within the next 4-6 weeks, its as liable to come out of his own party as anywhere
From Within the government
More leaks on poor decisions, corrupt activities, inappropriate associations and personal gain
The law
If his associates, like the NRA bosses, start getting picked off in legal cases.
Elsewhere
If there was any fear about taking him on because of his position, that dam is leaking if not outright broken and people who have stayed silent once they feel like there is less risk will start to talk. This is a wild card area because that guy has crossed a lot of people.
How utterly depressing.
And as predicted by me.
Lessons will be learnt, my arse!
What a third-rate incompetent little country we have become.
. . .
Researchers carried out initial swab testing of 150,000 people in May, while full lockdown was still in place, and again following the easing of restrictions.
Of the 159,199 swab tests carried out in the latest two weeks, just 123 were positive.
At any one point in the two weeks between June 19 and July 8, there were 39,000 people with Covid-19, compared to 74,000 in May.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/06/easing-lockdown-restrictions-did-not-lead-increase-infection/
This is a completely wildcard act. I can only see t being bad for the Dems short term and I sense a market move in my favour coming up.
Also I had greened out of this market a while ago as I am very nervous about the mail in vote being totally fucked with. I am putting no act passed Trump or the GOP.
Attorney General Letitia James claims in a lawsuit filed Thursday that she found financial misconduct in the millions of dollars, and that it contributed to a loss of more than $64 million over a three year period."
I don't get what some of you are saying. Are they supposed to say "Oh but it's an election year and we don't want to give Trump something he can use so let's just drop it and pretend nothing happened"?
"Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principle officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President"
Which would give Acting President full pardoning power.
BUT do NOT hold yer breath waiting for invocation of 25th amendment.
However, the headline borders on nonsensical.
'Police still advised to believe alleged abuse victims automatically' would have been fine.
BUT the whole NRA investigation has turned up a lot of dirt from what was already a self-created disaster for the organization. Which is what you get when you choose cretins like Wayne La Pierre and clowns like Oliver North as leaders.
https://twitter.com/theheraldsun/status/1290776300291010562
This 'aint over by a long, long way.
This is a totemic issue. And anyway if there's been misconduct why not bring charges against the individuals, rather than trying to disband the organisation?
When he didn’t, the entire school got the cane...
Also, I am not sure economic armageddon was coming down the track when Ed was the challenger.
Oddly enough, a few less than favourable polls will give the Democratic campaign a good kick but I'm a long way from being convinced there is any kind of mass swing back toward the President.
Looking at the most recent State polling - first, Maine where a 3-point Clinton win is now a 15-point lead for Biden. ME-2, which Trump won by 10 last time, is now a dead heat with Trump up by 1 so once again that 4-6% swing we've seen in many State polls.
In South Carolina, a 14-point Trump lead in 2016 is now a 5-point Trump lead which fits nicely in the 4-6% swing range. Kentucky has seen a 30-point lead for Trump become a 9-point advantage so is Biden doing disproportionately better in states where he has no chance?
Finally, the Rasmussen Trump approval numbers are back negative (46-52) having even positive earlier in the week.
It’s like not knowing your A,B,C.
Time to repost these I think. Though I may as well spit into the wind, for all the good any of this will do.
https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/10/13/the-tyranny-of-low-expectations/.
https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/01/17/a-toxic-culture/.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Lives_Matter
I've only stumbled upon it because all of the players at the PGA Championship appear to be wearing blue. There is a suggestion on Twitter that that is what it's about.
If the police announced a change in policy, the Guardian would be running a story saying that the police won't believe rape victims, etc. etc.
He's improved, and Biden is definitely not out of his reach. On the other hand, President Trump is doing worse (relatively) than at the same time in 2016 (and perhaps more importantly, Biden is doing a lot better than Hillary), and therefore he needs to do correspondingly better.
“ “Any process that imposes an artificial state of mind upon an investigator is, necessarily, a flawed process. An investigator, in any reputable system of justice, must be impartial. The imposed ‘obligation to believe’ removes that impartiality.”
If the police allow sentimental beliefs, preconceived opinions and assumptions, pressure from the media or politicians to override the judgments they need to make, they are doing a profound disservice – to the victims (who need their complaints taken seriously and investigated properly, a crucially important difference to simply being believed), to the defendants (who are entitled not to be accused publicly – or at all – on the basis of opinion unsupported by any evidence), to the public’s faith in policing, to the administration of justice itself.”
In a time of massive economic upheaval incumbency is most likely a significant disadvantage.
Good luck with the idea that four years will be enough to see us back to economic equilibrium.
We are forgetting how to think and reason.
Live in Yorkshire.
What, only the states that voted for Trump in 2016 are eligible for the vaccine?
Are we really at the point where people are afraid to enforce the law because it might wind up a few Republican voters ?
It is what is is, but it will be intensely political and we can only hope it doesn't help Trump as much as some fear.
NRA could (and likely will) incorporate in a more obliging state. BUT until that happens, they are bound to follow the law NOT flout it.
https://twitter.com/feliciasonmez/status/1291431120190439424