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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599
    edited August 2020
    Latest comparisons between 2020 and 2016 with RCP averages:

    Top battlegrounds: Biden +1.1
    National average: Biden +0.1
    Fav Ratings: Trump +4.3

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,466
    dixiedean said:

    This Naseem looks swift and handy.
    Amazing to think he could be bowling in a school team.

    Almost certainly not 17 - background a bit mysterious. Looks more like 20-21ish. Impressive though.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    RH1992 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Why is that relevant to the Bloomberg Brexit account, or is this an implied admission that the Bloomberg Brexit account just exists to bash Britain?

    Test and Trace isn't perfect, but to some elements of the media, anything less than every single contact padlocked in their house with an armed guard for two weeks seems to be deemed a failure. 80% of contacts is commonly accepted as effective, even if there's room for improvement.
    Sections of society that are wary of authority means you will never get overall high numbers. It might (by way of an entirely made up scenario) be 90% in white middle England; 50% in the BAME community and 10% in the traveller community.

    Or it could be that those who are self-employed white van man types refuse to go along with it, becaue they need the money/don't want to dob in their clients who pay them cash off the books. There was a doctor yesterday on the Jeremy Vine show saying he had to deal with a number of Covid-19 positive people who were refusing to self isolate, even after being told to do so by their GP and then at hospital. Those people aren't going to co-operate with test and trace.
    Not true, the local council system is tracing up to 98%, far better than Hancocks "World beating", privatised system. 89% in Leicesterdespite being given the harder contacts.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1290888803666792448?s=09

    This is not meaningless point scoring. The useless privatised system has its contract up in a few weeks. If it gets extended rather than the funding going to council systems, then that is another scandal.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Foxy said:

    RH1992 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Why is that relevant to the Bloomberg Brexit account, or is this an implied admission that the Bloomberg Brexit account just exists to bash Britain?

    Test and Trace isn't perfect, but to some elements of the media, anything less than every single contact padlocked in their house with an armed guard for two weeks seems to be deemed a failure. 80% of contacts is commonly accepted as effective, even if there's room for improvement.
    Sections of society that are wary of authority means you will never get overall high numbers. It might (by way of an entirely made up scenario) be 90% in white middle England; 50% in the BAME community and 10% in the traveller community.

    Or it could be that those who are self-employed white van man types refuse to go along with it, becaue they need the money/don't want to dob in their clients who pay them cash off the books. There was a doctor yesterday on the Jeremy Vine show saying he had to deal with a number of Covid-19 positive people who were refusing to self isolate, even after being told to do so by their GP and then at hospital. Those people aren't going to co-operate with test and trace.
    Not true, the local council system is tracing up to 98%, far better than Hancocks "World beating", privatised system. 89% in Leicesterdespite being given the harder contacts.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1290888803666792448?s=09

    This is not meaningless point scoring. The useless privatised system has its contract up in a few weeks. If it gets extended rather than the funding going to council systems, then that is another scandal.
    Isn't that cherry picking stats, whereas the national figures are the average success rate?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149
    I see Pence has called the Chief Justice a disappointment to conservatives, presumably as he occasionally sides with the liberal justices. Not that there was much doubt, but only the hardest of hard conservatives to be nominated under his watch.
  • isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    CatMan said:

    Nigelb said:

    35 years for destruction of property versus the sentence the killers (manslaughter) of the Police Officer got recently here makes a very sharp contrast.

    That’s exactly what I was thinking.

    I don’t however think these people should have their entire lives ruined due to this, although they certainly should face serious consequences. US sentences are quite something.
    The sentences should be reversed.

    35 years for the killers and a few years for destruction of property seem more apt.
    The 35 years is a mandatory minimum (if they are found guilty). They potentially face 45 years to rest of life.
    Wow. What they did was stupid, but that's just insane.
    PC Harpers Mother was on Breakfast tv this morning (both of them, wearing different outfits!). Apparently some MPs have asked the AG to intervene due to the light sentence. The mother is trying to get "Andrew's Law" in place - minimum 20 years in prison for anyone killing a frontline worker (I think thats the phrase they used)
    Ken Clarke let Anthony Jeffs out after 20, which I think was too light for a cold blooded ambush of anyone let alone a police officer....
    I think 20 years is appropriate here though, a whole life tariff is with the greatest feelings in the world difficult to justify when murder has not been proven.
    Whole life for murder/20 years for manslaughter (And a real 20 years behind bars) would probably be seen as too soft by most people mind.
    Anders Breivik got 21 years (the maximum sentence in Norway).
    That said, he will in all likelihood not be released so soon.
    Wonder if he'll get unpersoned on release like Venables and Thompson were here.
    I was speaking to someone who works for NOMS, they don't think Harper's killers will be released at the earliest opportunity.

    Based on their illiteracy and lack of remorse alone the benchmark for their release has been raised.

    They are going to have show a lot of improvement.

    Plus they are a part of the traveller community, they are going to need a permanent place of residence to stay and be supervised when they are released.
    Can their actions in court (laughing at the description of PC Harper's death, for one) be classified as some kind of offence?
    It could be seen as contempt of court, but the judge didn't take any action from the reports I read.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729

    England aren't going to avoid the follow on are they?

    Are you joining the long list of negativity types....???
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    dixiedean said:

    This Naseem looks swift and handy.
    Amazing to think he could be bowling in a school team.

    It looks as though he’s bowling at one.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Hmm, as a Biden backer the last thing I want is a firearms/second amendment trench war dominating the election. The key swing voter in Michigan probably owns a gun and thinks they should have a right to do so.
    The NRA has become very corrupt - quite a few righty gun owners can't stand them because of this.
    The NYAG is the same Letitia James who called the NRA a terrorist organization when running for office.
  • kle4 said:

    I see Pence has called the Chief Justice a disappointment to conservatives, presumably as he occasionally sides with the liberal justices. Not that there was much doubt, but only the hardest of hard conservatives to be nominated under his watch.

    GOPers are seldom happy with their Justices.

    Earl Warren, John Paul Stevens, David Souter, and Anthony Kennedy were all apparently pinkos when it counted despite being appointed by Republican Presidents.
  • England aren't going to avoid the follow on are they?

    Are you joining the long list of negativity types....???
    I've been following the England cricket team for 30 years, negativity is the default position, that way I'm never disappointed.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RH1992 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Why is that relevant to the Bloomberg Brexit account, or is this an implied admission that the Bloomberg Brexit account just exists to bash Britain?

    Test and Trace isn't perfect, but to some elements of the media, anything less than every single contact padlocked in their house with an armed guard for two weeks seems to be deemed a failure. 80% of contacts is commonly accepted as effective, even if there's room for improvement.
    Sections of society that are wary of authority means you will never get overall high numbers. It might (by way of an entirely made up scenario) be 90% in white middle England; 50% in the BAME community and 10% in the traveller community.

    Or it could be that those who are self-employed white van man types refuse to go along with it, becaue they need the money/don't want to dob in their clients who pay them cash off the books. There was a doctor yesterday on the Jeremy Vine show saying he had to deal with a number of Covid-19 positive people who were refusing to self isolate, even after being told to do so by their GP and then at hospital. Those people aren't going to co-operate with test and trace.
    Not true, the local council system is tracing up to 98%, far better than Hancocks "World beating", privatised system. 89% in Leicesterdespite being given the harder contacts.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1290888803666792448?s=09

    This is not meaningless point scoring. The useless privatised system has its contract up in a few weeks. If it gets extended rather than the funding going to council systems, then that is another scandal.
    Isn't that cherry picking stats, whereas the national figures are the average success rate?
    No. The national system is a disgrace, with minimum wage call handlers getting paid to do nothing. The number of contacts made per handler is farcical low.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    England aren't going to avoid the follow on are they?

    Are you joining the long list of negativity types....???
    I've been following the England cricket team for 30 years, negativity is the default position, that way I'm never disappointed.
    Except when a duff player has a middling score and thus hangs on to their place.

    One name is Jostling for attention here.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Tim_B said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Hmm, as a Biden backer the last thing I want is a firearms/second amendment trench war dominating the election. The key swing voter in Michigan probably owns a gun and thinks they should have a right to do so.
    The NRA has become very corrupt - quite a few righty gun owners can't stand them because of this.
    The NYAG is the same Letitia James who called the NRA a terrorist organization when running for office.
    Thats as maybe. The case against the NRA is about fraud rather than policy, if Bloomberg has it correct:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-08-06/nra-dissolution-sought-by-n-y-in-claims-of-financial-fraud?__twitter_impression=true
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Foxy said:


    No. The national system is a disgrace, with minimum wage call handlers getting paid to do nothing. The number of contacts made per handler is farcical low.

    It's a good thing that they are being paid to do nothing. It's because we have very few cases outside around a dozen areas, where indeed it is a good idea to have the local council increase the effort.

    If the national tracers weren't there doing nothing, we'd have no capacity to deal with a sudden increase, and no means of increasing capacity in a hurry. You can't just switch these things on in a week.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RH1992 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Why is that relevant to the Bloomberg Brexit account, or is this an implied admission that the Bloomberg Brexit account just exists to bash Britain?

    Test and Trace isn't perfect, but to some elements of the media, anything less than every single contact padlocked in their house with an armed guard for two weeks seems to be deemed a failure. 80% of contacts is commonly accepted as effective, even if there's room for improvement.
    Sections of society that are wary of authority means you will never get overall high numbers. It might (by way of an entirely made up scenario) be 90% in white middle England; 50% in the BAME community and 10% in the traveller community.

    Or it could be that those who are self-employed white van man types refuse to go along with it, becaue they need the money/don't want to dob in their clients who pay them cash off the books. There was a doctor yesterday on the Jeremy Vine show saying he had to deal with a number of Covid-19 positive people who were refusing to self isolate, even after being told to do so by their GP and then at hospital. Those people aren't going to co-operate with test and trace.
    Not true, the local council system is tracing up to 98%, far better than Hancocks "World beating", privatised system. 89% in Leicesterdespite being given the harder contacts.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1290888803666792448?s=09

    This is not meaningless point scoring. The useless privatised system has its contract up in a few weeks. If it gets extended rather than the funding going to council systems, then that is another scandal.
    Isn't that cherry picking stats, whereas the national figures are the average success rate?
    The National scheme has really picked up. My daughter’s friend is now up to 4 calls a day, much more than a fortnight ago when 1 was more typical.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    CatMan said:

    Nigelb said:

    35 years for destruction of property versus the sentence the killers (manslaughter) of the Police Officer got recently here makes a very sharp contrast.

    That’s exactly what I was thinking.

    I don’t however think these people should have their entire lives ruined due to this, although they certainly should face serious consequences. US sentences are quite something.
    The sentences should be reversed.

    35 years for the killers and a few years for destruction of property seem more apt.
    The 35 years is a mandatory minimum (if they are found guilty). They potentially face 45 years to rest of life.
    Wow. What they did was stupid, but that's just insane.
    PC Harpers Mother was on Breakfast tv this morning (both of them, wearing different outfits!). Apparently some MPs have asked the AG to intervene due to the light sentence. The mother is trying to get "Andrew's Law" in place - minimum 20 years in prison for anyone killing a frontline worker (I think thats the phrase they used)
    Ken Clarke let Anthony Jeffs out after 20, which I think was too light for a cold blooded ambush of anyone let alone a police officer....
    I think 20 years is appropriate here though, a whole life tariff is with the greatest feelings in the world difficult to justify when murder has not been proven.
    Whole life for murder/20 years for manslaughter (And a real 20 years behind bars) would probably be seen as too soft by most people mind.
    Anders Breivik got 21 years (the maximum sentence in Norway).
    That said, he will in all likelihood not be released so soon.
    Wonder if he'll get unpersoned on release like Venables and Thompson were here.
    I was speaking to someone who works for NOMS, they don't think Harper's killers will be released at the earliest opportunity.

    Based on their illiteracy and lack of remorse alone the benchmark for their release has been raised.

    They are going to have show a lot of improvement.

    Plus they are a part of the traveller community, they are going to need a permanent place of residence to stay and be supervised when they are released.
    Can their actions in court (laughing at the description of PC Harper's death, for one) be classified as some kind of offence?
    It could be seen as contempt of court, but the judge didn't take any action from the reports I read.
    I think that is what makes the case so gut wrenching - obviously the way PC Harper died was horrific, but had the guilty parties been sobbing with sorrow about it in court, it would probably have made things marginally easier for the bereaved to deal with. To have them laughing and joking about it is enough to push a lot of people over the edge.

    There is a twitter account alleging this isn't the first time one of the traveller's has been responsible for a man's death. I read the details of said case, quite strange
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217
    Scott_xP said:
    Pretty dumb, given Wayne LaPierre seemed to be single-handedly determined to destroy the NRA from the inside.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    Foxy said:

    Tim_B said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Hmm, as a Biden backer the last thing I want is a firearms/second amendment trench war dominating the election. The key swing voter in Michigan probably owns a gun and thinks they should have a right to do so.
    The NRA has become very corrupt - quite a few righty gun owners can't stand them because of this.
    The NYAG is the same Letitia James who called the NRA a terrorist organization when running for office.
    Thats as maybe. The case against the NRA is about fraud rather than policy, if Bloomberg has it correct:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-08-06/nra-dissolution-sought-by-n-y-in-claims-of-financial-fraud?__twitter_impression=true
    Exactly - and the guys at the top in the NRA have been living high on the NRA's money.

    The resemblance to the uglier kind of megachurch in the US is striking.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RH1992 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Why is that relevant to the Bloomberg Brexit account, or is this an implied admission that the Bloomberg Brexit account just exists to bash Britain?

    Test and Trace isn't perfect, but to some elements of the media, anything less than every single contact padlocked in their house with an armed guard for two weeks seems to be deemed a failure. 80% of contacts is commonly accepted as effective, even if there's room for improvement.
    Sections of society that are wary of authority means you will never get overall high numbers. It might (by way of an entirely made up scenario) be 90% in white middle England; 50% in the BAME community and 10% in the traveller community.

    Or it could be that those who are self-employed white van man types refuse to go along with it, becaue they need the money/don't want to dob in their clients who pay them cash off the books. There was a doctor yesterday on the Jeremy Vine show saying he had to deal with a number of Covid-19 positive people who were refusing to self isolate, even after being told to do so by their GP and then at hospital. Those people aren't going to co-operate with test and trace.
    Not true, the local council system is tracing up to 98%, far better than Hancocks "World beating", privatised system. 89% in Leicesterdespite being given the harder contacts.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1290888803666792448?s=09

    This is not meaningless point scoring. The useless privatised system has its contract up in a few weeks. If it gets extended rather than the funding going to council systems, then that is another scandal.
    Isn't that cherry picking stats, whereas the national figures are the average success rate?
    No. The national system is a disgrace, with minimum wage call handlers getting paid to do nothing. The number of contacts made per handler is farcical low.
    A disgrace, that's only doing marginally worse than the example you highlight?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    They are asylum seekers escaping the horrors of war torn........er.......France.
    There are several posters who consider France to be a rogue state!
  • Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) has tested positive for COVID-19 and plans to quarantine at his home for the next 14 days, his office announced Thursday. He currently has no symptoms.

    Why it matters: The 73-year-old DeWine was set to meet President Trump Thursday on the tarmac at an airport in Cleveland and was tested as part of standard protocol. He is the second governor known to have contracted the coronavirus, after Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt (R).

    https://www.axios.com/ohio-mike-dewine-coroanvirus-6f95a8ce-95cb-4d8f-b845-726982570e39.html
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    edited August 2020
    Actually, I take back that comment about schoolboys.

    No schoolboy would play a waft as daft as that.

    What odds can we get on Woakes surviving the over?

    Edit - quite good ones, as Buttler came in ahead of him, amazingly.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RH1992 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Why is that relevant to the Bloomberg Brexit account, or is this an implied admission that the Bloomberg Brexit account just exists to bash Britain?

    Test and Trace isn't perfect, but to some elements of the media, anything less than every single contact padlocked in their house with an armed guard for two weeks seems to be deemed a failure. 80% of contacts is commonly accepted as effective, even if there's room for improvement.
    Sections of society that are wary of authority means you will never get overall high numbers. It might (by way of an entirely made up scenario) be 90% in white middle England; 50% in the BAME community and 10% in the traveller community.

    Or it could be that those who are self-employed white van man types refuse to go along with it, becaue they need the money/don't want to dob in their clients who pay them cash off the books. There was a doctor yesterday on the Jeremy Vine show saying he had to deal with a number of Covid-19 positive people who were refusing to self isolate, even after being told to do so by their GP and then at hospital. Those people aren't going to co-operate with test and trace.
    Not true, the local council system is tracing up to 98%, far better than Hancocks "World beating", privatised system. 89% in Leicesterdespite being given the harder contacts.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1290888803666792448?s=09

    This is not meaningless point scoring. The useless privatised system has its contract up in a few weeks. If it gets extended rather than the funding going to council systems, then that is another scandal.
    Isn't that cherry picking stats, whereas the national figures are the average success rate?
    The National scheme has really picked up. My daughter’s friend is now up to 4 calls a day, much more than a fortnight ago when 1 was more typical.
    4 successful calls? Or are they still recording unanswered ones?

    Local teams are better for local outbreaks, and the evidence shows that. Contact is made door to door if needed, and local knowledge vital when picking up spots of transmission.
  • Has this been posted

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1291386060027629568?s=09


    And the Lib Dems near to crossover with the Greens
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    Has this been posted

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1291386060027629568?s=09


    And the Lib Dems near to crossover with the Greens

    Lots of disaffected Corbynistas joining the single issue fanatics, and many centrists quietly drifting back to Labour?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,466
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RH1992 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Why is that relevant to the Bloomberg Brexit account, or is this an implied admission that the Bloomberg Brexit account just exists to bash Britain?

    Test and Trace isn't perfect, but to some elements of the media, anything less than every single contact padlocked in their house with an armed guard for two weeks seems to be deemed a failure. 80% of contacts is commonly accepted as effective, even if there's room for improvement.
    Sections of society that are wary of authority means you will never get overall high numbers. It might (by way of an entirely made up scenario) be 90% in white middle England; 50% in the BAME community and 10% in the traveller community.

    Or it could be that those who are self-employed white van man types refuse to go along with it, becaue they need the money/don't want to dob in their clients who pay them cash off the books. There was a doctor yesterday on the Jeremy Vine show saying he had to deal with a number of Covid-19 positive people who were refusing to self isolate, even after being told to do so by their GP and then at hospital. Those people aren't going to co-operate with test and trace.
    Not true, the local council system is tracing up to 98%, far better than Hancocks "World beating", privatised system. 89% in Leicesterdespite being given the harder contacts.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1290888803666792448?s=09

    This is not meaningless point scoring. The useless privatised system has its contract up in a few weeks. If it gets extended rather than the funding going to council systems, then that is another scandal.
    Isn't that cherry picking stats, whereas the national figures are the average success rate?
    The National scheme has really picked up. My daughter’s friend is now up to 4 calls a day, much more than a fortnight ago when 1 was more typical.
    4 successful calls? Or are they still recording unanswered ones?

    Local teams are better for local outbreaks, and the evidence shows that. Contact is made door to door if needed, and local knowledge vital when picking up spots of transmission.
    It seems clear now that expanding the local teams would be the best approach. Have the gov got the chops to change tack?
  • Has this been posted

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1291386060027629568?s=09


    And the Lib Dems near to crossover with the Greens

    Yes, several hours ago.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RH1992 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Why is that relevant to the Bloomberg Brexit account, or is this an implied admission that the Bloomberg Brexit account just exists to bash Britain?

    Test and Trace isn't perfect, but to some elements of the media, anything less than every single contact padlocked in their house with an armed guard for two weeks seems to be deemed a failure. 80% of contacts is commonly accepted as effective, even if there's room for improvement.
    Sections of society that are wary of authority means you will never get overall high numbers. It might (by way of an entirely made up scenario) be 90% in white middle England; 50% in the BAME community and 10% in the traveller community.

    Or it could be that those who are self-employed white van man types refuse to go along with it, becaue they need the money/don't want to dob in their clients who pay them cash off the books. There was a doctor yesterday on the Jeremy Vine show saying he had to deal with a number of Covid-19 positive people who were refusing to self isolate, even after being told to do so by their GP and then at hospital. Those people aren't going to co-operate with test and trace.
    Not true, the local council system is tracing up to 98%, far better than Hancocks "World beating", privatised system. 89% in Leicesterdespite being given the harder contacts.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1290888803666792448?s=09

    This is not meaningless point scoring. The useless privatised system has its contract up in a few weeks. If it gets extended rather than the funding going to council systems, then that is another scandal.
    Isn't that cherry picking stats, whereas the national figures are the average success rate?
    No. The national system is a disgrace, with minimum wage call handlers getting paid to do nothing. The number of contacts made per handler is farcical low.
    A disgrace, that's only doing marginally worse than the example you highlight?
    The national system is failing to contact half of cases. That is more than marginally worse.

    If we want to open up the economy, then back the system that is running effective local contact tracing. Sticking with a failed national system is just plain stupid.
  • ydoethur said:

    Has this been posted

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1291386060027629568?s=09


    And the Lib Dems near to crossover with the Greens

    Lots of disaffected Corbynistas joining the single issue fanatics, and many centrists quietly drifting back to Labour?
    To be honest if you believe the consensus on here there is no explanation for the Conservative lead but maybe this forum generally does not reflect public opinion
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Is the follow on 150 or 200 in these matches?
  • ydoethur said:

    Is the follow on 150 or 200 in these matches?

    Technically it is 199.

    As a fellow pedant, I'm sure you will approve.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599

    Has this been posted

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1291386060027629568?s=09


    And the Lib Dems near to crossover with the Greens

    When will the result of the LD leadership election be announced? They desperately need a leader and some publicity.
  • Has this been posted

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1291386060027629568?s=09


    And the Lib Dems near to crossover with the Greens

    Yes, several hours ago.
    Thank you.

    I have been out most of the day and just came up my twitter feed
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217

    Scott_xP said:
    Its not often remarked on here, but Europe does seem to be struggling very badly with coronavirus right now. Double digit shrinkages in already ailing economies, rising case numbers, and in at least one case (Germany) big political opposition to renewed restriction measures.
    Pretty much every advanced economy shrank 10-12% in Q2, with France and Sweden the worst, and the US (at -9.5%) the best. We don't know the UK number yet, but it's probably going to be 10.5-11.0%, so worse than the US, Germany, Denmark or the Netherlands, but better than Italy, Spain or France.

    Looking to Q3, most economies will bounce back somewhat (with Sweden being the possible exception, as PMIs remain very weak there).
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,466
    ydoethur said:

    Is the follow on 150 or 200 in these matches?

    200 in a 5 day test. (Even when first day is washed out, which happened last year I think...)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    They are asylum seekers escaping the horrors of war torn........er.......France.
    There are several posters who consider France to be a rogue state!
    I understand from asylum advocates that the conditions in Calais are such that asylum in the UK is justified.

    Therefore it follows, that for the area around Calais, at least, France is a failed state,

    So obviously, the UK should take back control of the Pale of Calais.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    ydoethur said:

    Has this been posted

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1291386060027629568?s=09


    And the Lib Dems near to crossover with the Greens

    Lots of disaffected Corbynistas joining the single issue fanatics, and many centrists quietly drifting back to Labour?
    What price would Jezza be to win a seat if he defected to Les Verts?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    edited August 2020

    ydoethur said:

    Has this been posted

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1291386060027629568?s=09


    And the Lib Dems near to crossover with the Greens

    Lots of disaffected Corbynistas joining the single issue fanatics, and many centrists quietly drifting back to Labour?
    To be honest if you believe the consensus on here there is no explanation for the Conservative lead but maybe this forum generally does not reflect public opinion
    What consensus? This place is full of tory supporters.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Foxy said:

    Tim_B said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Hmm, as a Biden backer the last thing I want is a firearms/second amendment trench war dominating the election. The key swing voter in Michigan probably owns a gun and thinks they should have a right to do so.
    The NRA has become very corrupt - quite a few righty gun owners can't stand them because of this.
    The NYAG is the same Letitia James who called the NRA a terrorist organization when running for office.
    Thats as maybe. The case against the NRA is about fraud rather than policy, if Bloomberg has it correct:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-08-06/nra-dissolution-sought-by-n-y-in-claims-of-financial-fraud?__twitter_impression=true
    The rumors about Wayne LaPierre et al and alleged excesses have been around for a long time. I'm not a fan - and not a gun owner. So go for him. That's like a congressman siphoning campaign funds into his own account _ you prosecute him, not try to dissolve congress.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Has this been posted

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1291386060027629568?s=09


    And the Lib Dems near to crossover with the Greens

    When will the result of the LD leadership election be announced? They desperately need a leader and some publicity.
    I am not sure it will make any difference
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    ydoethur said:

    Has this been posted

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1291386060027629568?s=09


    And the Lib Dems near to crossover with the Greens

    Lots of disaffected Corbynistas joining the single issue fanatics, and many centrists quietly drifting back to Labour?
    To be honest if you believe the consensus on here there is no explanation for the Conservative lead but maybe this forum generally does not reflect public opinion
    That’s not quite true. There is an explanation. It’s that people like Boris Johnson.

    The problem is that their liking of him is based on a carefully crafted persona that bears as much resemblance to the reality as a Boycott innings to the match situation. It conceals somebody who is in every way unsuited to high political office, and who is being manipulated by somebody even less suited to executive power.

    The question is, whether those people who like Johnson will realise that, and if so when.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Pretty dumb, given Wayne LaPierre seemed to be single-handedly determined to destroy the NRA from the inside.
    What. The. Actual. Living. Fuck.

    Why on earth are they doing this. The NRA was well on its way to destroying itself. Unless there is incredible evidence of illegality this is an insane action that will damage the Dems in a huge number of down ticket races and cause Biden to have to have awful interviews on the subject.
  • ydoethur said:

    Has this been posted

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1291386060027629568?s=09


    And the Lib Dems near to crossover with the Greens

    Lots of disaffected Corbynistas joining the single issue fanatics, and many centrists quietly drifting back to Labour?
    To be honest if you believe the consensus on here there is no explanation for the Conservative lead but maybe this forum generally does not reflect public opinion
    What consensus? This place is full of tory supporters.
    Really ?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357
    Omnium said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    isam said:

    In some ways, not surprising -

    Starmer has taken over the Labour Party, but has not dealt with the various issues in the party completely, yet. EHCR report etc.

    He has then to set out a program of policies and sell them to the country as departure from the previous leadership.

    Essentially - promising start, but lots to do.

    Yep - lots still to do, but Labour now has the chance to get a hearing in a way that has not been the case for a long time. That is a good place to start from.

    SKS Labour behind Corbyns and Milibands on is the opposition ready to become a Government

    Oh dear

    59% thought Labour wasn't ready to form a government under Corbyn. It was 52% under Miliband. That number is now 47% after five months of Starmer. Only Tony Blair did better.

    Another way of looking at it is Starmer has the worst positives out of himself, Miliband and Corbyn

    If people start getting elected by lack of negatives, he's doing well I guess

    Lack of negatives is very important in a FPTP system. The least worst option is often the choice people feel forced to make.

    One point about these figures that strikes me is how few people do not have a decided view of Johnson.

    Admittedly I don’t understand what his admirers see in him, but just 5% have no view.

    That means to improve his ratings he has to convert people who dislike him into supporters. That will be very hard. The opposite is a lot more likely.

    Meanwhile, comparatively few people have a deep dislike of Starmer (and many of them may be Corbynistas infuriated by his anti racism as our own dear BJO is). He has as many ‘don’t knows’ as ‘don’t likes’ which is a nice profitable pool to fish in especially if Johnson continues to show all the clarity, stability and decision of a drunk on a bouncy castle.
    Does he need to improve his ratings much? If his 47% are firm the haters don't matter. Surely that just reflects the natural political divide in the UK and elsewhere. He's been a divisive figure for a while but unless the negatives turn voters away from the party he could win again. Starmer's problem which is likely to grow is that he will have to come up with policies at some point - and all recent Labour leaders have struggled to convince voters on that score. The last one to manage it was Blair and Labour members hate him more than Boris. The voters liked him and his policies. Of course there was a reason for that.....
    The point is that over time, a large proportion of the ‘favourable’ will move away. Decisions they disagree with, scandals, something he says, etc.

    Meanwhile it’s unusual for those who have unfavourable views of someone after they have become PM to change their minds. Blair over Princess Diana’s death was a dazzling exception, or Thatcher over the Falklands. I don’t quite see Johnson doing the same. This crisis might have been a similar opportunity but his handling of it has been at best inept and at worst catastrophic.

    Starmer, however, slightly behind Johnson on raw numbers, has a quarter of the vote to mine - as people get to know him, there’s a chance they’ll come to like him.

    Of course, the opposite may happen (Neil Kinnock) or he may totally fail to cut through a la Ming Campbell, but the potential is there.
    Starmer is very dull! He was droning on in Wales today. All good, solid stuff, but straight over the heads of the great uneducated. They don't want to hear and see Bank Managerial competence, they want Boris to tell them, as he has again today, that Britain's test and trace is "world beating".

    I can't see, even with the greatest economic catastrophe on the horizon that Johnson's puppydog image and cheery bon homie won't still cut through.

    You and I may think Johnson is a walking fiasco, but on here and in the real world the man can do no wrong to vast swathes of the public.
    Its not a case of do no wrong, its a case of the alternative they saw at the GE was much worse with or without Corbyn.

    Starmer has to convince voters that Labour are a "New", "New Labour" , that the old ways are gone and his is a new broom sweep clean Party.

    Cannot see it myself as its not, nor will it ever be true (Blair's "New Labour" was a mirage) and without a swathe of seats in Scotland, Starmer is marooned.
    I have watched non-political people when Johnson comes on the TV. He makes them smile and laugh. They will vote for him just for doing that.
    That is because of his big ugly mush, they are laughing at him not with him.
    He's a capable politician, I'm not sure how he looks matters.

    I think there are parallels between Boris and Salmond. No matter if true or not, but Boris' adoption of a slightly shambolic style and Salmond's adoption of smoothy style are interesting contrasts.

    Blair's adoption of the 'everyone's mate' is clearly to be avoided.

    Late Edit: 'if true or not' - No matter the truth of what they say for these purposes.
    He is a useless politician , a serial liar and workshy oaf. How many times sacked for lying , throwaway racist comments. Gold plated erse.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Pretty dumb, given Wayne LaPierre seemed to be single-handedly determined to destroy the NRA from the inside.
    What. The. Actual. Living. Fuck.

    Why on earth are they doing this. The NRA was well on its way to destroying itself. Unless there is incredible evidence of illegality this is an insane action that will damage the Dems in a huge number of down ticket races and cause Biden to have to have awful interviews on the subject.
    It’s a cock up.

    They’re aiming at the wrong target.

    Their stock will fall.

    Is that enough awesome rifle puns?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357
    Omnium said:

    Nigelb said:

    Omnium said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    isam said:

    In some ways, not surprising -

    Starmer has taken over the Labour Party, but has not dealt with the various issues in the party completely, yet. EHCR report etc.

    He has then to set out a program of policies and sell them to the country as departure from the previous leadership.

    Essentially - promising start, but lots to do.

    Yep - lots still to do, but Labour now has the chance to get a hearing in a way that has not been the case for a long time. That is a good place to start from.

    SKS Labour behind Corbyns and Milibands on is the opposition ready to become a Government

    Oh dear

    59% thought Labour wasn't ready to form a government under Corbyn. It was 52% under Miliband. That number is now 47% after five months of Starmer. Only Tony Blair did better.

    Another way of looking at it is Starmer has the worst positives out of himself, Miliband and Corbyn

    If people start getting elected by lack of negatives, he's doing well I guess

    Lack of negatives is very important in a FPTP system. The least worst option is often the choice people feel forced to make.

    One point about these figures that strikes me is how few people do not have a decided view of Johnson.

    Admittedly I don’t understand what his admirers see in him, but just 5% have no view.

    That means to improve his ratings he has to convert people who dislike him into supporters. That will be very hard. The opposite is a lot more likely.

    Meanwhile, comparatively few people have a deep dislike of Starmer (and many of them may be Corbynistas infuriated by his anti racism as our own dear BJO is). He has as many ‘don’t knows’ as ‘don’t likes’ which is a nice profitable pool to fish in especially if Johnson continues to show all the clarity, stability and decision of a drunk on a bouncy castle.
    Does he need to improve his ratings much? If his 47% are firm the haters don't matter. Surely that just reflects the natural political divide in the UK and elsewhere. He's been a divisive figure for a while but unless the negatives turn voters away from the party he could win again. Starmer's problem which is likely to grow is that he will have to come up with policies at some point - and all recent Labour leaders have struggled to convince voters on that score. The last one to manage it was Blair and Labour members hate him more than Boris. The voters liked him and his policies. Of course there was a reason for that.....
    The point is that over time, a large proportion of the ‘favourable’ will move away. Decisions they disagree with, scandals, something he says, etc.

    Meanwhile it’s unusual for those who have unfavourable views of someone after they have become PM to change their minds. Blair over Princess Diana’s death was a dazzling exception, or Thatcher over the Falklands. I don’t quite see Johnson doing the same. This crisis might have been a similar opportunity but his handling of it has been at best inept and at worst catastrophic.

    Starmer, however, slightly behind Johnson on raw numbers, has a quarter of the vote to mine - as people get to know him, there’s a chance they’ll come to like him.

    Of course, the opposite may happen (Neil Kinnock) or he may totally fail to cut through a la Ming Campbell, but the potential is there.
    Starmer is very dull! He was droning on in Wales today. All good, solid stuff, but straight over the heads of the great uneducated. They don't want to hear and see Bank Managerial competence, they want Boris to tell them, as he has again today, that Britain's test and trace is "world beating".

    I can't see, even with the greatest economic catastrophe on the horizon that Johnson's puppydog image and cheery bon homie won't still cut through.

    You and I may think Johnson is a walking fiasco, but on here and in the real world the man can do no wrong to vast swathes of the public.
    Its not a case of do no wrong, its a case of the alternative they saw at the GE was much worse with or without Corbyn.

    Starmer has to convince voters that Labour are a "New", "New Labour" , that the old ways are gone and his is a new broom sweep clean Party.

    Cannot see it myself as its not, nor will it ever be true (Blair's "New Labour" was a mirage) and without a swathe of seats in Scotland, Starmer is marooned.
    I have watched non-political people when Johnson comes on the TV. He makes them smile and laugh. They will vote for him just for doing that.
    That is because of his big ugly mush, they are laughing at him not with him.
    He's a capable politician, I'm not sure how he looks matters.

    I think there are parallels between Boris and Salmond. No matter if true or not, but Boris' adoption of a slightly shambolic style and Salmond's adoption of smoothy style are interesting contrasts.

    Blair's adoption of the 'everyone's mate' is clearly to be avoided.
    It's not inappropriate that Johnson looks, to borrow Spike Milligan's memorable phrase, like a sack of shit tied in the middle.
    Many of us have looked that way, and I suspect almost all of us have felt that way.
    Speak for yourself
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599
    A couple of weeks ago Trump was about 10 to win the popular vote. It's now 5.8.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.170211116
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    isam said:

    ydoethur said:

    Has this been posted

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1291386060027629568?s=09


    And the Lib Dems near to crossover with the Greens

    Lots of disaffected Corbynistas joining the single issue fanatics, and many centrists quietly drifting back to Labour?
    What price would Jezza be to win a seat if he defected to Les Verts?
    If he were ten years younger, probably quite good. I’ve never heard anyone suggest he neglected his constituency.

    But if he loses the Labour whip, I don’t think he’ll be standing again aged 74.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    ydoethur said:

    Has this been posted

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1291386060027629568?s=09


    And the Lib Dems near to crossover with the Greens

    Lots of disaffected Corbynistas joining the single issue fanatics, and many centrists quietly drifting back to Labour?
    I think that is true.

    However, the blue, red wall is moving still further away from Labour, under working class hero Johnson.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    edited August 2020
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Has this been posted

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1291386060027629568?s=09


    And the Lib Dems near to crossover with the Greens

    Lots of disaffected Corbynistas joining the single issue fanatics, and many centrists quietly drifting back to Labour?
    To be honest if you believe the consensus on here there is no explanation for the Conservative lead but maybe this forum generally does not reflect public opinion
    That’s not quite true. There is an explanation. It’s that people like Boris Johnson.

    The problem is that their liking of him is based on a carefully crafted persona that bears as much resemblance to the reality as a Boycott innings to the match situation. It conceals somebody who is in every way unsuited to high political office, and who is being manipulated by somebody even less suited to executive power.

    The question is, whether those people who like Johnson will realise that, and if so when.
    But not on this forum in the main

    And I am not sure the public follow the details of Cummings role though I have no doubt at all that he should have resigned over Durham
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    ydoethur said:

    Has this been posted

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1291386060027629568?s=09


    And the Lib Dems near to crossover with the Greens

    Lots of disaffected Corbynistas joining the single issue fanatics, and many centrists quietly drifting back to Labour?
    I think that is true.

    However, the blue, red wall is moving still further away from Labour, under working class hero Johnson.
    That’s why I said earlier that Cooper’s vulnerable at the next election.

    But then, so is Miliband unless Labour can reconnect with the North.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    England down to the tail. Follow on or not depends on Pope.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    ydoethur said:

    Has this been posted

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1291386060027629568?s=09


    And the Lib Dems near to crossover with the Greens

    Lots of disaffected Corbynistas joining the single issue fanatics, and many centrists quietly drifting back to Labour?
    To be honest if you believe the consensus on here there is no explanation for the Conservative lead but maybe this forum generally does not reflect public opinion
    What consensus? This place is full of tory supporters.
    Really ?
    Really. How many people on here would call themselves out and out Labour supporters? Not many.

    I mean I’m a Labour member and I wouldn’t call myself a Labour supporter.

    Compare that to how many people on here who are out and out Conservative Party supporters.

    Night and day.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    ydoethur said:

    isam said:

    ydoethur said:

    Has this been posted

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1291386060027629568?s=09


    And the Lib Dems near to crossover with the Greens

    Lots of disaffected Corbynistas joining the single issue fanatics, and many centrists quietly drifting back to Labour?
    What price would Jezza be to win a seat if he defected to Les Verts?
    If he were ten years younger, probably quite good. I’ve never heard anyone suggest he neglected his constituency.

    But if he loses the Labour whip, I don’t think he’ll be standing again aged 74.
    I find it very difficult to offer any credit to Corbyn. Just an awful, awful excuse for a human being.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217

    They are asylum seekers escaping the horrors of war torn........er.......France.
    I thought only a relatively small proportion (like 20-30%) of the 20,000 or so asylum seekers came via France and most presented themselves at passport control (conveniently having lost their travel documentation) at Heathrow, Gatwick and other international airports
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Has this been posted

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1291386060027629568?s=09


    And the Lib Dems near to crossover with the Greens

    Lots of disaffected Corbynistas joining the single issue fanatics, and many centrists quietly drifting back to Labour?
    To be honest if you believe the consensus on here there is no explanation for the Conservative lead but maybe this forum generally does not reflect public opinion
    That’s not quite true. There is an explanation. It’s that people like Boris Johnson.

    The problem is that their liking of him is based on a carefully crafted persona that bears as much resemblance to the reality as a Boycott innings to the match situation. It conceals somebody who is in every way unsuited to high political office, and who is being manipulated by somebody even less suited to executive power.

    The question is, whether those people who like Johnson will realise that, and if so when.
    “as much resemblance ti the reality as a Boycott innings to the match situation”.
    Oh like.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357

    ydoethur said:

    Has this been posted

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1291386060027629568?s=09


    And the Lib Dems near to crossover with the Greens

    Lots of disaffected Corbynistas joining the single issue fanatics, and many centrists quietly drifting back to Labour?
    To be honest if you believe the consensus on here there is no explanation for the Conservative lead but maybe this forum generally does not reflect public opinion
    What consensus? This place is full of tory supporters.
    Really ?
    Really. How many people on here would call themselves out and out Labour supporters? Not many.

    I mean I’m a Labour member and I wouldn’t call myself a Labour supporter.

    Compare that to how many people on here who are out and out Conservative Party supporters.

    Night and day.
    Site is dripping with fanatical Tories , they have their grafters on here spending inordinate amount of hours supporting any and every atrocity as being great and denigrating everybody else. You know the ones.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    edited August 2020

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Has this been posted

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1291386060027629568?s=09


    And the Lib Dems near to crossover with the Greens

    Lots of disaffected Corbynistas joining the single issue fanatics, and many centrists quietly drifting back to Labour?
    To be honest if you believe the consensus on here there is no explanation for the Conservative lead but maybe this forum generally does not reflect public opinion
    That’s not quite true. There is an explanation. It’s that people like Boris Johnson.

    The problem is that their liking of him is based on a carefully crafted persona that bears as much resemblance to the reality as a Boycott innings to the match situation. It conceals somebody who is in every way unsuited to high political office, and who is being manipulated by somebody even less suited to executive power.

    The question is, whether those people who like Johnson will realise that, and if so when.
    But not on this forum in the main

    And I am not sure the public follow the details of Cummings role though I have no doubt at all that he should have resigned over Durham
    Because with certain exceptions with literally asinine avatars, as people who are shrewd and well-informed about politics we can all see through that persona to the person underneath, and it genuinely is difficult therefore to understand why our understanding isn’t matched elsewhere.

    The truth, of course, is that most people don’t pay lots of attention to politics. So they listen to whoever shouts loudest.

    One of the reasons Cummings has done a lot of underlying damage to the Tory brand is precisely because it did cut through. It means that Johnson won’t get the benefit of the doubt the next time he massively cocks up, which will be sooner rather than later given his atrocious judgement.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217
    Andy_JS said:

    A couple of weeks ago Trump was about 10 to win the popular vote. It's now 5.8.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.170211116

    It's gone unremarked on, but Trump has definitely improved a bit in the polling - he's moved from a 9.1% national deficit a few weeks ago to a 6.4% one now. This has almost entirely happened due to a decrease in the number of DKs, with Biden's 49% remaining pretty much constant throughout.
  • malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    Has this been posted

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1291386060027629568?s=09


    And the Lib Dems near to crossover with the Greens

    Lots of disaffected Corbynistas joining the single issue fanatics, and many centrists quietly drifting back to Labour?
    To be honest if you believe the consensus on here there is no explanation for the Conservative lead but maybe this forum generally does not reflect public opinion
    What consensus? This place is full of tory supporters.
    Really ?
    Really. How many people on here would call themselves out and out Labour supporters? Not many.

    I mean I’m a Labour member and I wouldn’t call myself a Labour supporter.

    Compare that to how many people on here who are out and out Conservative Party supporters.

    Night and day.
    Site is dripping with fanatical Tories , they have their grafters on here spending inordinate amount of hours supporting any and every atrocity as being great and denigrating everybody else. You know the ones.
    I certainly know Scots Nats who are world champions at that Malc
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Has this been posted

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1291386060027629568?s=09


    And the Lib Dems near to crossover with the Greens

    Lots of disaffected Corbynistas joining the single issue fanatics, and many centrists quietly drifting back to Labour?
    To be honest if you believe the consensus on here there is no explanation for the Conservative lead but maybe this forum generally does not reflect public opinion
    That’s not quite true. There is an explanation. It’s that people like Boris Johnson.

    The problem is that their liking of him is based on a carefully crafted persona that bears as much resemblance to the reality as a Boycott innings to the match situation. It conceals somebody who is in every way unsuited to high political office, and who is being manipulated by somebody even less suited to executive power.

    The question is, whether those people who like Johnson will realise that, and if so when.
    But not on this forum in the main

    And I am not sure the public follow the details of Cummings role though I have no doubt at all that he should have resigned over Durham
    Because with certain exceptions with literally asinine avatars, as people who are shrewd and well-informed about politics we can all see through that persona to the person underneath, and it genuinely is difficult therefore to understand why our understanding isn’t matched elsewhere.

    The truth, of course, is that most people don’t pay lots of attention to politics. So they listen to whoever shouts loudest.

    One of the reasons Cummings has done a lot of underlying damage to the Tory brand is precisely because it did cut through. It means that Johnson won’t get the benefit of the doubt the next time he massively cocks up, which will be sooner rather than later given his atrocious judgement.
    Maybe
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    ydoethur said:

    isam said:

    ydoethur said:

    Has this been posted

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1291386060027629568?s=09


    And the Lib Dems near to crossover with the Greens

    Lots of disaffected Corbynistas joining the single issue fanatics, and many centrists quietly drifting back to Labour?
    What price would Jezza be to win a seat if he defected to Les Verts?
    If he were ten years younger, probably quite good. I’ve never heard anyone suggest he neglected his constituency.

    But if he loses the Labour whip, I don’t think he’ll be standing again aged 74.
    I find it very difficult to offer any credit to Corbyn. Just an awful, awful excuse for a human being.
    Yes. Last election we were asked to choose between a racist of limited intellect who was out for his mates and made a lot of populist pledges he didn’t understand, couldn’t afford and wouldn’t deal with the key issues the country faces.

    Or Jeremy Corbyn.

    I kept my self respect by tearing up my ballot paper. I never want to have to do that again.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Has this been posted

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1291386060027629568?s=09


    And the Lib Dems near to crossover with the Greens

    Lots of disaffected Corbynistas joining the single issue fanatics, and many centrists quietly drifting back to Labour?
    I think that is true.

    However, the blue, red wall is moving still further away from Labour, under working class hero Johnson.
    That’s why I said earlier that Cooper’s vulnerable at the next election.

    But then, so is Miliband unless Labour can reconnect with the North.
    There are likely to be other factors at play which might save them, like the inevitable post Covid, post Brexit basket case economy.

    Although I am not convinced Johnson's Conservative Party will be blamed for the wreckage.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    A couple of weeks ago Trump was about 10 to win the popular vote. It's now 5.8.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.170211116

    It's gone unremarked on, but Trump has definitely improved a bit in the polling - he's moved from a 9.1% national deficit a few weeks ago to a 6.4% one now. This has almost entirely happened due to a decrease in the number of DKs, with Biden's 49% remaining pretty much constant throughout.
    Big payrolls number tomorrow....
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,264
    DavidL said:

    England down to the tail. Follow on or not depends on Pope.

    Surely he's infallible.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    rcs1000 said:

    They are asylum seekers escaping the horrors of war torn........er.......France.
    I thought only a relatively small proportion (like 20-30%) of the 20,000 or so asylum seekers came via France and most presented themselves at passport control (conveniently having lost their travel documentation) at Heathrow, Gatwick and other international airports
    Aren't airlines obliged to return them from whence they came?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482
    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Pretty dumb, given Wayne LaPierre seemed to be single-handedly determined to destroy the NRA from the inside.
    What. The. Actual. Living. Fuck.

    Why on earth are they doing this. The NRA was well on its way to destroying itself. Unless there is incredible evidence of illegality this is an insane action that will damage the Dems in a huge number of down ticket races and cause Biden to have to have awful interviews on the subject.
    It’s a cock up.

    They’re aiming at the wrong target.

    Their stock will fall.

    Is that enough awesome rifle puns?
    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Pretty dumb, given Wayne LaPierre seemed to be single-handedly determined to destroy the NRA from the inside.
    What. The. Actual. Living. Fuck.

    Why on earth are they doing this. The NRA was well on its way to destroying itself. Unless there is incredible evidence of illegality this is an insane action that will damage the Dems in a huge number of down ticket races and cause Biden to have to have awful interviews on the subject.
    It’s a cock up.

    They’re aiming at the wrong target.

    Their stock will fall.

    Is that enough awesome rifle puns?
    It'll make them the butt of a lot of jokes. They really musket a bit of common sense.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Has this been posted

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1291386060027629568?s=09


    And the Lib Dems near to crossover with the Greens

    Lots of disaffected Corbynistas joining the single issue fanatics, and many centrists quietly drifting back to Labour?
    To be honest if you believe the consensus on here there is no explanation for the Conservative lead but maybe this forum generally does not reflect public opinion
    That’s not quite true. There is an explanation. It’s that people like Boris Johnson.

    The problem is that their liking of him is based on a carefully crafted persona that bears as much resemblance to the reality as a Boycott innings to the match situation. It conceals somebody who is in every way unsuited to high political office, and who is being manipulated by somebody even less suited to executive power.

    The question is, whether those people who like Johnson will realise that, and if so when.
    “as much resemblance ti the reality as a Boycott innings to the match situation”.
    Oh like.
    I Aim to please :smile:

    I thought about using Chris Tavaré, but he’s not as well known as Boycott. Moreover, he could play shots when he wanted, he just usually didn’t bother.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Has this been posted

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1291386060027629568?s=09


    And the Lib Dems near to crossover with the Greens

    Lots of disaffected Corbynistas joining the single issue fanatics, and many centrists quietly drifting back to Labour?
    I think that is true.

    However, the blue, red wall is moving still further away from Labour, under working class hero Johnson.
    That’s why I said earlier that Cooper’s vulnerable at the next election.

    But then, so is Miliband unless Labour can reconnect with the North.
    There are likely to be other factors at play which might save them, like the inevitable post Covid, post Brexit basket case economy.

    Although I am not convinced Johnson's Conservative Party will be blamed for the wreckage.
    I have been in town twice today and it was as busy as any peak season day in Llandudno, which depends on the leisure and hotel industry entirely. It did make me wonder just how much economic activity we are now seeing
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    isam said:

    ydoethur said:

    Has this been posted

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1291386060027629568?s=09


    And the Lib Dems near to crossover with the Greens

    Lots of disaffected Corbynistas joining the single issue fanatics, and many centrists quietly drifting back to Labour?
    What price would Jezza be to win a seat if he defected to Les Verts?
    If he were ten years younger, probably quite good. I’ve never heard anyone suggest he neglected his constituency.

    But if he loses the Labour whip, I don’t think he’ll be standing again aged 74.
    I find it very difficult to offer any credit to Corbyn. Just an awful, awful excuse for a human being.
    Yes. Last election we were asked to choose between a racist of limited intellect who was out for his mates and made a lot of populist pledges he didn’t understand, couldn’t afford and wouldn’t deal with the key issues the country faces.

    Or Jeremy Corbyn.

    I kept my self respect by tearing up my ballot paper. I never want to have to do that again.
    Because of my limited intellect I do not see the Johnson magic. With a thick West Midlands accent, I really should see the allure, but sadly I don't.

    As it is, enough enlightened souls do see that Johnson stardust, so we nonetheless get the Prime Minister we deserve.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    DavidL said:

    England down to the tail. Follow on or not depends on Pope.

    Surely he's infallible.
    I certainly hope so. Lot of responsibility on the young man. Future England captain for me.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Has this been posted

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1291386060027629568?s=09


    And the Lib Dems near to crossover with the Greens

    Lots of disaffected Corbynistas joining the single issue fanatics, and many centrists quietly drifting back to Labour?
    I think that is true.

    However, the blue, red wall is moving still further away from Labour, under working class hero Johnson.
    That’s why I said earlier that Cooper’s vulnerable at the next election.

    But then, so is Miliband unless Labour can reconnect with the North.
    There are likely to be other factors at play which might save them, like the inevitable post Covid, post Brexit basket case economy.

    Although I am not convinced Johnson's Conservative Party will be blamed for the wreckage.
    I have been in town twice today and it was as busy as any peak season day in Llandudno, which depends on the leisure and hotel industry entirely. It did make me wonder just how much economic activity we are now seeing
    The economic aftermath of Covid-19 will be horrific, whether we like it or not. It has to be with virtually no economic activity for 3 months.

    Because of cheap borrowing a consumer led recovery may well be on the cards for the time being at least (have you seen how many 20 plate cars are on the roads? Loads!) When will that party stop?
  • Who are all these morons commenting on polls saying "LABOUr ShOULD bE 20 PoINTS AHead"
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599
    edited August 2020

    ydoethur said:

    Has this been posted

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1291386060027629568?s=09


    And the Lib Dems near to crossover with the Greens

    Lots of disaffected Corbynistas joining the single issue fanatics, and many centrists quietly drifting back to Labour?
    I think that is true.

    However, the blue, red wall is moving still further away from Labour, under working class hero Johnson.
    Johnson is probably acting as a slight drag on the Conservative vote at the moment IMO. Without him they'd be doing better.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217
    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    They are asylum seekers escaping the horrors of war torn........er.......France.
    I thought only a relatively small proportion (like 20-30%) of the 20,000 or so asylum seekers came via France and most presented themselves at passport control (conveniently having lost their travel documentation) at Heathrow, Gatwick and other international airports
    Aren't airlines obliged to return them from whence they came?
    Hence "conveniently having lost their travel documentation". If you don't know whence they've come it's hard to return them.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Has this been posted

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1291386060027629568?s=09


    And the Lib Dems near to crossover with the Greens

    Lots of disaffected Corbynistas joining the single issue fanatics, and many centrists quietly drifting back to Labour?
    I think that is true.

    However, the blue, red wall is moving still further away from Labour, under working class hero Johnson.
    That’s why I said earlier that Cooper’s vulnerable at the next election.

    But then, so is Miliband unless Labour can reconnect with the North.
    There are likely to be other factors at play which might save them, like the inevitable post Covid, post Brexit basket case economy.

    Although I am not convinced Johnson's Conservative Party will be blamed for the wreckage.
    I have been in town twice today and it was as busy as any peak season day in Llandudno, which depends on the leisure and hotel industry entirely. It did make me wonder just how much economic activity we are now seeing
    The economic aftermath of Covid-19 will be horrific, whether we like it or not. It has to be with virtually no economic activity for 3 months.

    Because of cheap borrowing a consumer led recovery may well be on the cards for the time being at least (have you seen how many 20 plate cars are on the roads? Loads!) When will that party stop?
    New car sales are markedly down (though I have a new electric Kia, and very impressive it is too!) So presumably not that many.

    Aren't a lot of cars on rather sub prime finance contracts too?, but that turd may still be airborne.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Has this been posted

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1291386060027629568?s=09


    And the Lib Dems near to crossover with the Greens

    Lots of disaffected Corbynistas joining the single issue fanatics, and many centrists quietly drifting back to Labour?
    I think that is true.

    However, the blue, red wall is moving still further away from Labour, under working class hero Johnson.
    Johnson is probably acting as a slight drag on the Conservative vote at the moment IMO. Without him they'd be doing better.
    I understand that, but I don't see it anecdotally, and as such I do not believe it.

    Sunak or Hunt in my opinion keep the South Eastern vote, but lose the wall.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    They are asylum seekers escaping the horrors of war torn........er.......France.
    I thought only a relatively small proportion (like 20-30%) of the 20,000 or so asylum seekers came via France and most presented themselves at passport control (conveniently having lost their travel documentation) at Heathrow, Gatwick and other international airports
    Aren't airlines obliged to return them from whence they came?
    Hence "conveniently having lost their travel documentation". If you don't know whence they've come it's hard to return them.
    Well an airport should know what flight they came off!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    Who are all these morons commenting on polls saying "LABOUr ShOULD bE 20 PoINTS AHead"

    Corbynistas bitter at Starmer as far as I can see, and sniping at their own party, like BJO does.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Has this been posted

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1291386060027629568?s=09


    And the Lib Dems near to crossover with the Greens

    Lots of disaffected Corbynistas joining the single issue fanatics, and many centrists quietly drifting back to Labour?
    I think that is true.

    However, the blue, red wall is moving still further away from Labour, under working class hero Johnson.
    That’s why I said earlier that Cooper’s vulnerable at the next election.

    But then, so is Miliband unless Labour can reconnect with the North.
    There are likely to be other factors at play which might save them, like the inevitable post Covid, post Brexit basket case economy.

    Although I am not convinced Johnson's Conservative Party will be blamed for the wreckage.
    I have been in town twice today and it was as busy as any peak season day in Llandudno, which depends on the leisure and hotel industry entirely. It did make me wonder just how much economic activity we are now seeing
    The economic aftermath of Covid-19 will be horrific, whether we like it or not. It has to be with virtually no economic activity for 3 months.

    Because of cheap borrowing a consumer led recovery may well be on the cards for the time being at least (have you seen how many 20 plate cars are on the roads? Loads!) When will that party stop?
    New car sales are markedly down (though I have a new electric Kia, and very impressive it is too!) So presumably not that many.

    Aren't a lot of cars on rather sub prime finance contracts too?, but that turd may still be airborne.
    Up until a month ago dealerships weren't open so understandably there were hardly any 20 plate cars on the road. Up and down the M4, M5 and M6 this week there are far more than I expected.

    With burgeoning unemployment, I suspect the keys to many personal lease cars will be handed back.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    Who are all these morons commenting on polls saying "LABOUr ShOULD bE 20 PoINTS AHead"

    Ken Livingstone complained bitterly the day after the 1992 election that with a proper Socialist manifesto Labour would have won a 100 seat majority.

    I’m sure he’s still one of them.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217
    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    They are asylum seekers escaping the horrors of war torn........er.......France.
    I thought only a relatively small proportion (like 20-30%) of the 20,000 or so asylum seekers came via France and most presented themselves at passport control (conveniently having lost their travel documentation) at Heathrow, Gatwick and other international airports
    Aren't airlines obliged to return them from whence they came?
    Hence "conveniently having lost their travel documentation". If you don't know whence they've come it's hard to return them.
    Well an airport should know what flight they came off!
    Between 7am and 9:30am at Heathrow something like 170 international flights arrive. If you estimate 200 passengers per plane (and with things like A380s, that's way low), there are at least 34,000 international passengers.

    That queue for passport control will contain people from 70 different destinations.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    They are asylum seekers escaping the horrors of war torn........er.......France.
    I thought only a relatively small proportion (like 20-30%) of the 20,000 or so asylum seekers came via France and most presented themselves at passport control (conveniently having lost their travel documentation) at Heathrow, Gatwick and other international airports
    Aren't airlines obliged to return them from whence they came?
    Hence "conveniently having lost their travel documentation". If you don't know whence they've come it's hard to return them.
    Well an airport should know what flight they came off!
    Between 7am and 9:30am at Heathrow something like 170 international flights arrive. If you estimate 200 passengers per plane (and with things like A380s, that's way low), there are at least 34,000 international passengers.

    That queue for passport control will contain people from 70 different destinations.
    CCTV.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    ydoethur said:
    I have flown direct to Kuala Lumpur with MAS in the past.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217
    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    They are asylum seekers escaping the horrors of war torn........er.......France.
    I thought only a relatively small proportion (like 20-30%) of the 20,000 or so asylum seekers came via France and most presented themselves at passport control (conveniently having lost their travel documentation) at Heathrow, Gatwick and other international airports
    Aren't airlines obliged to return them from whence they came?
    Hence "conveniently having lost their travel documentation". If you don't know whence they've come it's hard to return them.
    Well an airport should know what flight they came off!
    Between 7am and 9:30am at Heathrow something like 170 international flights arrive. If you estimate 200 passengers per plane (and with things like A380s, that's way low), there are at least 34,000 international passengers.

    That queue for passport control will contain people from 70 different destinations.
    CCTV.
    There isn't CCTV on every person leaving every plane (although there probably should be). Once they're in the terminal, it's very hard to tell.

    Plus, don't forget that there are genuine asylum cases too. And people are supposed to claim asylum in the first country they get to. With air travel that's a lot more plausible than crossing the channel.

    There are plenty of people who are parts of groups who are persecuted and who do manage to get on planes. The 'losing travel documents' malarky just ensures they get a bit more time to argue their case.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    A couple of weeks ago Trump was about 10 to win the popular vote. It's now 5.8.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.170211116

    It's gone unremarked on, but Trump has definitely improved a bit in the polling - he's moved from a 9.1% national deficit a few weeks ago to a 6.4% one now. This has almost entirely happened due to a decrease in the number of DKs, with Biden's 49% remaining pretty much constant throughout.
    If you take The Hill/Harris X poll, Biden's lead is just three (43-40) with 9% unsure. The crosstabs don't make a lot of senses compared to other pollsters - among White voters Trump is up 16 points (50-34). I'm not convinced.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    They are asylum seekers escaping the horrors of war torn........er.......France.
    I thought only a relatively small proportion (like 20-30%) of the 20,000 or so asylum seekers came via France and most presented themselves at passport control (conveniently having lost their travel documentation) at Heathrow, Gatwick and other international airports
    Aren't airlines obliged to return them from whence they came?
    Hence "conveniently having lost their travel documentation". If you don't know whence they've come it's hard to return them.
    Well an airport should know what flight they came off!
    Between 7am and 9:30am at Heathrow something like 170 international flights arrive. If you estimate 200 passengers per plane (and with things like A380s, that's way low), there are at least 34,000 international passengers.

    That queue for passport control will contain people from 70 different destinations.
    CCTV.
    There isn't CCTV on every person leaving every plane (although there probably should be). Once they're in the terminal, it's very hard to tell.

    Plus, don't forget that there are genuine asylum cases too. And people are supposed to claim asylum in the first country they get to. With air travel that's a lot more plausible than crossing the channel.

    There are plenty of people who are parts of groups who are persecuted and who do manage to get on planes. The 'losing travel documents' malarky just ensures they get a bit more time to argue their case.
    Well either way it's a route that's not coming back any time soon.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    Just a musing or two on the "Eat Out to Help Out" campaign.

    In Downtown East Ham, plenty of restaurants are on the list as participating but most of them have very small seating areas and it was interesting to see a couple who had people sitting down yesterday have now closed off the seating area today.

    Ir will be interesting to see what this early and midweek offer does for weekend bookings. Mrs Stodge and I are out Saturday with friends so we'll see if the venue is busy but it's going to be very hot so who wants to sit in a restaurant on a hot Saturday afternoon (apart from me and Mrs Stodge apparently)?

    To what extent will this undo the damage of lockdown? Obviously, all trade helps and getting more trade early in the week when it's traditionally quieter (except presumably at your average seaside resort) helps but if you have to cut your covers because of social distancing AND you've been dead for three months it's going to need a lot to undo what has happened.

    It would be nice to see the initiative continue into the autumn but I suspect it won't - I'm already getting the sense Government is terrified of the financial outcome of all this and I suspect for all the wittering about endless borrowing, Sunak will be forced to take some rather less popular decisions later in the year.

    The BoE report read rather "best case scenario" to this observer though others found it "sobering",. We have to hope that there is no prolonged secondary outbreak this winter as a further spell of truncated economic activity won't be helpful.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Scott_xP said:
    "Clare Edwards said: “I’m certainly sure that it was Dominic Cummings.” In her statement to officers, she said she saw a man she thought to be Cummings just after 11.01am on 19 April. She said she was able to be precise after finding a timestamped geolocated photograph she took of the woods moments before seeing the man. "

    Bet she wish she'd taken a timestamped, geolocated photo of the man she says is Cummings!

    Why didn't she? She had her phone/camera handy
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:
    I have flown direct to Kuala Lumpur with MAS in the past.
    rcs1000 said:
    You learn something new every day.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:
    "Clare Edwards said: “I’m certainly sure that it was Dominic Cummings.” In her statement to officers, she said she saw a man she thought to be Cummings just after 11.01am on 19 April. She said she was able to be precise after finding a timestamped geolocated photograph she took of the woods moments before seeing the man. "

    Bet she wish she'd taken a timestamped, geolocated photo of the man she says is Cummings!

    Why didn't she? She had her phone/camera handy
    Well, why should she? At the time, she probably didn’t realise there was anything significant about his being there, and he isn’t exactly Brad Pitt that you would *want* a photo of him.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    stodge said:

    Just a musing or two on the "Eat Out to Help Out" campaign.

    In Downtown East Ham, plenty of restaurants are on the list as participating but most of them have very small seating areas and it was interesting to see a couple who had people sitting down yesterday have now closed off the seating area today.

    Ir will be interesting to see what this early and midweek offer does for weekend bookings. Mrs Stodge and I are out Saturday with friends so we'll see if the venue is busy but it's going to be very hot so who wants to sit in a restaurant on a hot Saturday afternoon (apart from me and Mrs Stodge apparently)?

    To what extent will this undo the damage of lockdown? Obviously, all trade helps and getting more trade early in the week when it's traditionally quieter (except presumably at your average seaside resort) helps but if you have to cut your covers because of social distancing AND you've been dead for three months it's going to need a lot to undo what has happened.

    It would be nice to see the initiative continue into the autumn but I suspect it won't - I'm already getting the sense Government is terrified of the financial outcome of all this and I suspect for all the wittering about endless borrowing, Sunak will be forced to take some rather less popular decisions later in the year.

    The BoE report read rather "best case scenario" to this observer though others found it "sobering",. We have to hope that there is no prolonged secondary outbreak this winter as a further spell of truncated economic activity won't be helpful.

    I will be playing football in East Ham at some stage this season, vs London APAS at Flanders
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    A 45% Tory vote share with Ipsos-Mori, and more people thought Labour was ready for government under Corbyn last November (!) than they do today under Starmer.

    And yet the received wisdom is all about how wonderful Mr. Boring is and the terrrrrrrible trouble Boris and the Tories are in...

    Of course.
This discussion has been closed.