Re Inter-country comparisons of excess deaths, I haven't seen any mention here of the EuroMoMo (= European Mortality Monitor) data which you can find here: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps They show excess deaths weekly over the last 5 years, presenting breakdowns by country and age using a "Z-score" (they explain), and they disaggregate the UK into component nations. It is quite remarkable how much the European countries differ, and regrettably England is the second worst performer. Spain is the worst. Some countries hardly show a blip of any kind, even for their older cohorts.
But we all LOVE THE NHS, remember?
Think of a healthcare system like you think of a religion, and it becomes infallible.
Tbf England has two religions, though they seem to be coalescing.
For what its worth all the old parties names are buggered:
Conservative and Unionist: neither conservative or unionist. Labour: seen by far too many as welfare Liberal Democrats: Clegg's betrayal on tuition fees an albatross round the neck
At least Scottish Nationalist Party and Green Party do what they say on the tin.
With 3 months to go, Pennsylvania is the current tipping point state according to the 538 polling averages, where Biden is 6.6% ahead.
In my view it will be Florida, as I think Trump could hold Wisconsin even if he loses Pennsylvania and Michigan
Possibly - there are lots of plausible combinations in a close election where whoever wins Florida wins, although Biden is currently 7% ahead in Wisconsin, and 5.9% in Florida.
Biden is also only 6.5% ahead in Nevada, which is only 6 electoral college votes so he can sometimes afford to lose it. But it's the only Clinton '16 state (apart from Minnesota where Biden is 7.6% ahead), where Biden is currently doing worse than in the national average (Biden 8.3% ahead), and worse than some of the swing states that Trump won in '16.
All according to current 538 polling averages, other polling averages might show something slightly different.
In any case, the polling is consistently showing that Biden probably needs to be about 2% ahead nationally to be favourite to win the electoral college.
Nevada has done some real weird stuff polling wise from 2016 onwards. In the midterms it looked like the Senate seat might go GOP at one point but in the end Roaen comfortably took it. And in 2016 there were lots of polls putting Trump well ahead.
But the fundamentals of Dem/GOP voter registration said it would be Dem wins and so it turned out to be.
Trending away since 2015, when the majority was only 1026. What has happened there?
I honestly don’t know! As I have demonstrated I thought it was marginal.
I would guess, but I could be completely wrong, that it’s where most of the Royal Navy have their shore homes, and that Corbyn’s pacifism didn’t play too well. Labour’s vote went down in Plymouth Sutton and Devonport as well, although not as catastrophically.
Labour’s vote absolutely cratered in Taunton Deane as well, and was down in Bath. Equally, however, it rose in Portsmouth South.
Well I think you would hope Labour might recover some then, with a leader who is not Corbyn.
I do think in these very marginal Brexit-voting seats, Corbyn was the factor that sealed the deal for many voters.
I would expect Starmer will win some back just by not being Corbyn.
Only when he convinces them Labour is no longer Labour. Thier brand is buggered. He needs to oversee a rebrand. New Labour, if you will.
I'm sure all its activists can get behind that idea.
If he rebrands as New Labour, he's completely buggered. The Left will explode and the Right will mock.
Something like Ordinary Labour would serve better, especially given the collection of weirdos he's going to be up against.
Harold Wilson or John Smith Labour should suffice.
I wonder what proportion of the reduced attendance of hospitals is people who need to go to hospitals not going . . . and what proportion is hypochondriacs deciding they have something better to do.
In the past when I've waited in A&E I've often felt the majority of people there didn't really need to be there.
But it's not just A&E that's running at below capacity, it's everything including oncology.
Indeed, oncology being down is very worrying.
I'm not suggesting that all the decrease is non-worrying, but not all of the decrease is worrying either. Some of the decrease is people being more careful (or less driving or less drunk) and fewer accidents, some of it is fewer hypochondriacs going out . . . but much of it is what should be going on like oncology.
There should be an awareness campaign going on for cancer awareness. I think that's the biggest concern of them all.
It's not just cancer though, there's a whole host of routine procedures that are being put off or going undiagnosed because people don't want to go to hospital. The person with undiagnosed high cholesterol is at risk of a stroke, that's as serious as it gets.
Or even a stomach ulcer that goes untreated too long.
Exactly, cancer is just one of the serious health conditions currently going untreated or undetected because the government has sacrificed all other public health priorities for the virus. It's going to end very badly unless there is a serious rethink of policy.
This would be helped a lot if Covid could be moved to a defined set of hospitals whose mission was to deal with Covid.
It's not just a problem of treatment not being given to the vulnerable, I suspect there's also an issue of them not wanting to go and be treated in a hospital where there's a risk of Covid infection.
As I've said before, I think we need: - An interim health sec so Matt Hancock can deal with Covid - Matt Hancock deals with opening a new network of Covid hospitals - New health sec aims to get the Covid-free NHS up and running again
Who's going to go in these Covid hospitals? Is England now not averaging less than 1 patient in hospital per hospital?
Well, if there really turned out to be no patients, I suppose they'd be turned into Covid immunisation centres or centres of excellence for contagious disease, or eventually returned to the mainstream NHS. But most seem to think we still need the capacity.
And with no patients, they might get the Florence Nightingale award for hygiene.
On-topic re Dem VP choice, the screen grab in the header from CBS News includes Maggie Hassan, available at 1000 on Betfair if you believe CBS that she is a live contender. That is longer than Barack (not Michelle) Obama, who falls down on the being a woman part. I've not been including her in any of the betting summaries I've posted from time to time.
Elizabeth Warren is interesting. Though it has been said Biden will nominate a "woman of colour", I cannot trace that back to the man himself, who has said it will be a woman. This is not a tip, more a reflection on how opaque this apparently open process remains. My own sense from looking at the betting and reading American coverage from thousands of miles away, is that the first five in the betting remain under active consideration.
Here is a longer, though still not full, list from Betfair.
Biden has said he will pick a woman as his Vice Presidential running mate. Has NOT gone beyond that, speculation he will choose VP of color is just that -speculation.
Keep in mind there are MANY competing interest groups here within or closely adjacent to the Democratic Party and/or Biden campaign.
Including politicos in MANY states who might benefit IF one or another of the hopefuls in picked. For example IF that pick created a potential vacancy for US Senator or Governor.
You can see why there is such a fight. Whoever wins is the de facto President from day one, and probably the actual president shortly after that.
Seeing some of the clips of Biden, it really is very sad.
Whomever wins is NOT "the de factor President from day one" that is horse poop.
Comments
Conservative and Unionist: neither conservative or unionist.
Labour: seen by far too many as welfare
Liberal Democrats: Clegg's betrayal on tuition fees an albatross round the neck
At least Scottish Nationalist Party and Green Party do what they say on the tin.
What was that about disgraced national security risks again?
But the fundamentals of Dem/GOP voter registration said it would be Dem wins and so it turned out to be.
What an appalling piece of graffiti.
I bet his password was password1234