FT: "Swedish companies reap benefits of country’s Covid-19 approach" Better than expected numbers suggests no-lockdown strategy helped business
and
Telegraph: "Spain's experience shows that Sweden's Covid approach could have been right all along" At the end of this we may well conclude that countries which attempted total suppression of the virus killed their economies for zero gain
And they didn't close their schools so they haven't got a cohort of badly educated, socially-traumatised kids.
Sweden now has 564 deaths per million and will likely soon overtake Italy on 581 as it has more new cases. Only Belgium, us and Spain will have more deaths per head then in the world than Sweden does
But, like Italy or Spain, they are only registering a few deaths per day, now.
Yet the Swedish recession will be dwarfed by the recessions (Depressions) in southern Europe (and in the UK)
And Sweden kept the schools open, and they're not even using masks.
It still too early to say, but if you HAD to choose a European model to follow (if you could) it would be Sweden
No. It would be Germany, far fewer deaths than Sweden per head and opened up its economy from lockdown earlier than us
++++++
Perhaps. But Germany now has a hint of a second wave, and it is possible their excellent earlier record was more from luck than judgement.
Sweden's outcome was a result of definite policy.
As ever, we shall see
Sweden still has more daily cases per head than Germany, it was German mass testing from an early stage and lockdown imposed when needed that was key.
Germany also has more facemask wearing than Sweden and now requires facemasks outside as well as inside
It does? - (looks outside) - Nobody seems to have been told.
'The head of Germany's public health agency has said he is "very concerned" by rising infections in the country...At a press conference on Tuesday, Mr Wieler asked people for the first time to wear a mask outdoors if they cannot maintain a physical distance of at least 1.5 metres (5ft).
Previously the guidance had been to wear masks indoors in public.'
Before the usual suspects get stuck in Bout masks I’ll outline the development of use in Alicante province as I remember
Up until 15/3 no requirement apart from attending hospital or health centres From 15/3 required in those limited retail, outlets That were open, as we couldn’t leave the house then No need to wear in street From mid may limited freedom to go for a walk, mask only needed if 2m couldn’t be maintained. 28/5 limited opening of bars and restaurants masks only required when stood up inside. From 17/7 mask required in virtually all circumstances
As can be seen the use of masks has not driven the rise in infections but has been in response to it, but the usual suspects will be back claiming black is white.
I've read and heard quite a few times now, interesting speculation that emptying office space in places like Central London, and its accompanying decline in residential prices - as much more residential accommodation becomes available - could have the long-term effect of reviving city centres, as they become more affordable places to live in, and smaller businesses are able to move back in too. That's interesting.
I see the Depp case is just about over. I wonder if at the end of the day the only winners will be the lawyers on both sides. Doesn't look to me as if Depp or Heard have covered themselves with glory, but of course the Sun's reputation can stand anything. I wonder too if we're going to see 1p damages and no order as to costs!
I'd have thought a victory, even a 1p victory, could be worth millions for Depp?
If he'd done nothing and accepted the accusation of being a wife beater then he'd surely have been persona non grata in Hollywood and that would be the end of his career? Whereas if he wins and the Sun has to apologise, even without damages, I assume he can continue filming.
+1 the money doesn't matter here it's complete irrelevant.
If the Sun wins Depp's career is finished (as is the Fantastic Beasts franchise without a rewrite).
If Depp wins his career can restart.
And while Depp is clearly a strange person, Heard really doesn't come out of this well.
Indeed, look how quickly Kevin Spacey's career was brought to an abrupt close.
That is what The Sun could have done to Depp.
It's probably more accurate to say that is what The Sun has currently done to Depp - there is still a question over whether he can recover his career even if the Sun was found to have libelled him.
It was control of India which made the British Empire a Superpower, once India got independence so Britain's Superpower status went with it
It was control of the oceans which made Britain the superpower.
I agree, during the 1920s and 30s the USA was largely demilitarised and isolationist. Either America surpassed us in the Edwardian period (the economic point) or in WW2 (the military point).
Command of the oceans* was indeed the key. With it and overseas lands are an asset, without it, they are liabilities. It was loss of control of the oceans that did in Japan, and arguably Germany too.
* an island in those days was defined as a piece of land completely surrounded by the Royal Navy.
I see the Depp case is just about over. I wonder if at the end of the day the only winners will be the lawyers on both sides. Doesn't look to me as if Depp or Heard have covered themselves with glory, but of course the Sun's reputation can stand anything. I wonder too if we're going to see 1p damages and no order as to costs!
I'd have thought a victory, even a 1p victory, could be worth millions for Depp?
If he'd done nothing and accepted the accusation of being a wife beater then he'd surely have been persona non grata in Hollywood and that would be the end of his career? Whereas if he wins and the Sun has to apologise, even without damages, I assume he can continue filming.
+1 the money doesn't matter here it's complete irrelevant.
If the Sun wins Depp's career is finished (as is the Fantastic Beasts franchise without a rewrite).
If Depp wins his career can restart.
And while Depp is clearly a strange person, Heard really doesn't come out of this well.
I do get he impression a lot of this was originally based on the idea that they thought everyone would believe Heard because Depp is strange. If that is the case then I do hope he wins. Being strange is certainly not a crime and shouldn't be punished.
The thing is I suspect anyone who had the money and career Depp has had would be strange, he works in a very strange world and has make so much money from it that he can (and does) whatever he wants whenever he wants.
It was control of India which made the British Empire a Superpower, once India got independence so Britain's Superpower status went with it
It was control of the oceans which made Britain the superpower.
There is an argument that the Empire was actually a drag (at least in the last 50 years). That the economic theory behind it (mercantilism) was a bust.
I see the Depp case is just about over. I wonder if at the end of the day the only winners will be the lawyers on both sides. Doesn't look to me as if Depp or Heard have covered themselves with glory, but of course the Sun's reputation can stand anything. I wonder too if we're going to see 1p damages and no order as to costs!
I'd have thought a victory, even a 1p victory, could be worth millions for Depp?
If he'd done nothing and accepted the accusation of being a wife beater then he'd surely have been persona non grata in Hollywood and that would be the end of his career? Whereas if he wins and the Sun has to apologise, even without damages, I assume he can continue filming.
+1 the money doesn't matter here it's complete irrelevant.
If the Sun wins Depp's career is finished (as is the Fantastic Beasts franchise without a rewrite).
If Depp wins his career can restart.
And while Depp is clearly a strange person, Heard really doesn't come out of this well.
I do get he impression a lot of this was originally based on the idea that they thought everyone would believe Heard because Depp is strange. If that is the case then I do hope he wins. Being strange is certainly not a crime and shouldn't be punished.
It's bad enough having faces come out of the rain and no one remember your name!
Agree that this has hit home more than any event in my lifetime.
Covid is strange because it is a deadly virus but it isn't a deadly virus for most people so the overall reaction is understandable and also, as we are seeing from da yoof on tour, ignorable. Certainly the measures taken, lockdown, etc are once in a lifetime events. But walking around it doesn't feel as though we are in mortal danger. Whether rightly or wrongly.
For me IIRC just before Gulf 1 there was a time when it was thought that Iran and Iraq would come together to fight the infidel, thus occasioning a literal clash of civilisations. A cultural war, but a hot one, not just one conducted in the Graun Opinion section.
Covid 19 is the biggest event of my lifetime. We aren't even halfway through and it is transforming the world.
Inter alia, it will mark the decisive moment when supreme power passed from the West to the East.
Not quite, but I suspect it will be the reference pointed use in the same way that the US is regarded to have replaced the UK as the leading power between 1939 and 1945 when in reality it was probably some time in the 1920's / 30's..
India was still part of the Empire until 1947
OK, how was India central to Britain's victories in WW1 and WW2?
Suppose you decide to go to work immediately after returning from Spain. Is a company within it's right to suspend you for the quarantine period (without pay) or even dismiss you (gross misconduct by potentially making other employees ill).
It was control of India which made the British Empire a Superpower, once India got independence so Britain's Superpower status went with it
It was control of the oceans which made Britain the superpower.
And with control of Indian ports we had control of the Indian Ocean and Australian and New Zealand ports much of the Pacific, we lost much of our control of the Atlantic Ocean with the independence of the American colonies though our control of Canada and much of Africa still kept it in part.
It was only after WW2 and the late 1940s the Royal Navy ceased being the largest navy in the world which also coincided with Indian independence
Agree that this has hit home more than any event in my lifetime.
Covid is strange because it is a deadly virus but it isn't a deadly virus for most people so the overall reaction is understandable and also, as we are seeing from da yoof on tour, ignorable. Certainly the measures taken, lockdown, etc are once in a lifetime events. But walking around it doesn't feel as though we are in mortal danger. Whether rightly or wrongly.
For me IIRC just before Gulf 1 there was a time when it was thought that Iran and Iraq would come together to fight the infidel, thus occasioning a literal clash of civilisations. A cultural war, but a hot one, not just one conducted in the Graun Opinion section.
Covid 19 is the biggest event of my lifetime. We aren't even halfway through and it is transforming the world.
Inter alia, it will mark the decisive moment when supreme power passed from the West to the East.
Not quite, but I suspect it will be the reference pointed use in the same way that the US is regarded to have replaced the UK as the leading power between 1939 and 1945 when in reality it was probably some time in the 1920's / 30's..
India was still part of the Empire until 1947
OK, how was India central to Britain's victories in WW1 and WW2?
For the latter, 2.5 million servicemen is quite an impressive start.
It was control of India which made the British Empire a Superpower, once India got independence so Britain's Superpower status went with it
It was control of the oceans which made Britain the superpower.
And with control of India we had control of the Indian Ocean and Australia and New Zealand much of the Pacific, we lost much of our control of the Atlantic Ocean with the independence of the American colonies though our control of Canada and much of Africa still kept it in part
We still had control of the NA Ocean for a century and more after American independence, as the Americans discovered to their cost in the War of 1812.
Agree that this has hit home more than any event in my lifetime.
Covid is strange because it is a deadly virus but it isn't a deadly virus for most people so the overall reaction is understandable and also, as we are seeing from da yoof on tour, ignorable. Certainly the measures taken, lockdown, etc are once in a lifetime events. But walking around it doesn't feel as though we are in mortal danger. Whether rightly or wrongly.
For me IIRC just before Gulf 1 there was a time when it was thought that Iran and Iraq would come together to fight the infidel, thus occasioning a literal clash of civilisations. A cultural war, but a hot one, not just one conducted in the Graun Opinion section.
Covid 19 is the biggest event of my lifetime. We aren't even halfway through and it is transforming the world.
Inter alia, it will mark the decisive moment when supreme power passed from the West to the East.
Not quite, but I suspect it will be the reference pointed use in the same way that the US is regarded to have replaced the UK as the leading power between 1939 and 1945 when in reality it was probably some time in the 1920's / 30's..
India was still part of the Empire until 1947
OK, how was India central to Britain's victories in WW1 and WW2?
To the defeat of Japan it was certainly important and Indian troops also supplied forces in WW1 as well
Agree that this has hit home more than any event in my lifetime.
Covid is strange because it is a deadly virus but it isn't a deadly virus for most people so the overall reaction is understandable and also, as we are seeing from da yoof on tour, ignorable. Certainly the measures taken, lockdown, etc are once in a lifetime events. But walking around it doesn't feel as though we are in mortal danger. Whether rightly or wrongly.
For me IIRC just before Gulf 1 there was a time when it was thought that Iran and Iraq would come together to fight the infidel, thus occasioning a literal clash of civilisations. A cultural war, but a hot one, not just one conducted in the Graun Opinion section.
Covid 19 is the biggest event of my lifetime. We aren't even halfway through and it is transforming the world.
Inter alia, it will mark the decisive moment when supreme power passed from the West to the East.
Not quite, but I suspect it will be the reference pointed use in the same way that the US is regarded to have replaced the UK as the leading power between 1939 and 1945 when in reality it was probably some time in the 1920's / 30's..
India was still part of the Empire until 1947
OK, how was India central to Britain's victories in WW1 and WW2?
WW1 - money, trade, and Army manpower to control the Middle East and Suez and oil fuel for the new battleships.
WW2 - as above, only more so re oil, and stopping the Germans outflanking the USSR while maintaining supply routes to the USSR and China.
Slightly smaller swing to Biden than nationally - arguably a good thing given its implication as to how the national swing translates into ECVs.
Only 78% preferencing either candidate, even this far out from the election, is exceptionally low. And Gary Johnson put in one of the best third party efforts in 2016 and that is very unlikely to be repeated this year, so that makes it even worse. This is a pollster that got Hillary spot on and Biden is 5 points below that level. So not really good for either side.
Those low preference numbers seem pretty unusual for this election. I'll run an analysis, but I think we're probably seeing a great percentage of voters who say they've made up their mind than in 2016.
But is that actually real though or is it because the samples are not representative in terms of interest in politics?
I find this a little irritating by smart arse journalists and politicos.
We are in a unique crisis situation
The hospitality sector is on its knees. Obesity is a significant factor in death rates.
These two policies (subsidising meals out and the obesity strategy) address these issues. They have been implemented quickly, and the government should be praised for that
Sure there is a small area of overlap where one may counteract the other (although I suspect it affects a very small number of people). In a perfect world you would probably have excluded fast food restaurants from the subsidised meals policy.
But that would have (a) required a definition of which restaurants were excluded; (b) required consultation, slowing things down massively; (c) probably have resulted in judicial review of the policy slowing things down even more; and (d) cost jobs in the fast food sector
Sometime you have to accept that the perfect is the enemy of the good and just get on with it. But the haters just choose to carp and criticise from the sidelines. Of course the government has got stuff wrong. But overall on the really big things - NHS capacity, ventilators, vaccine strategy, economic support - they’ve done pretty well.
They've done well on the furlough, but are now in danger of blotting their copybook with some very poorly targeted and poorly thought through ideas like this 1/2 price meal deal and that jobs retention thing.
(IMO, they're still missing a big trick in terms of an opportunity to get furloughed workers/others into training schemes for new industries through some combination of adult education and university partnerships)
In public health terms they've done poorly overall, with their initial decisions like delaying lockdown, stopping contact tracing and failure to protect care homes particularly disastrous.
In a nice reversal however, recent decisions on public health look better - e.g. the obesity campaign, reacting swiftly to a surge in Spain (bad headlines be damned).
Agree that this has hit home more than any event in my lifetime.
Covid is strange because it is a deadly virus but it isn't a deadly virus for most people so the overall reaction is understandable and also, as we are seeing from da yoof on tour, ignorable. Certainly the measures taken, lockdown, etc are once in a lifetime events. But walking around it doesn't feel as though we are in mortal danger. Whether rightly or wrongly.
For me IIRC just before Gulf 1 there was a time when it was thought that Iran and Iraq would come together to fight the infidel, thus occasioning a literal clash of civilisations. A cultural war, but a hot one, not just one conducted in the Graun Opinion section.
Covid 19 is the biggest event of my lifetime. We aren't even halfway through and it is transforming the world.
Inter alia, it will mark the decisive moment when supreme power passed from the West to the East.
Not quite, but I suspect it will be the reference pointed use in the same way that the US is regarded to have replaced the UK as the leading power between 1939 and 1945 when in reality it was probably some time in the 1920's / 30's..
India was still part of the Empire until 1947
OK, how was India central to Britain's victories in WW1 and WW2?
For the latter, 2.5 million servicemen is quite an impressive start.
Slightly smaller swing to Biden than nationally - arguably a good thing given its implication as to how the national swing translates into ECVs.
Only 78% preferencing either candidate, even this far out from the election, is exceptionally low. And Gary Johnson put in one of the best third party efforts in 2016 and that is very unlikely to be repeated this year, so that makes it even worse. This is a pollster that got Hillary spot on and Biden is 5 points below that level. So not really good for either side.
Those low preference numbers seem pretty unusual for this election. I'll run an analysis, but I think we're probably seeing a great percentage of voters who say they've made up their mind than in 2016.
But is that actually real though or is it because the samples are not representative in terms of interest in politics?
That's an excellent question.
And none of us know for sure. I suspect it's probably real, because we had the same issue back in 2018, and there was a lot of scepticism that midterm turnout would be particularly high. Yet it was. I think the Dems got 40% more than their previous record in terms of absolute number of votes in midterm House elections.
It was control of India which made the British Empire a Superpower, once India got independence so Britain's Superpower status went with it
It was control of the oceans which made Britain the superpower.
There was song about it, ‘Britain rules the waves.’
Britain controlled... essentially the indian ocean.
And yet India had **** all to do with that basic point - except (1) through the support it gave to British wealth and the taxation needed to support the navy, and (2) a small but very useful navy of its own (or rather, IIRC, three of them - Bengal, Madras and Bombay).
The decisive naval campaigns were (as so often) fought elsewhere than the Indian Ocean, like one near a Spanish headland called Cape Trafalgar. It really was a world war from 1793-1815.
I agree, during the 1920s and 30s the USA was largely demilitarised and isolationist. .
Not in naval terms - it maintained a large and effective fleet between the wars, even if it was hampered by being split betweent two oceans.
It was only the Washington Treaty* that stopped the US from building a Two Ocean navy that would have been bigger than the RN and the Japanese Navy. Combined.
This is a perfect example of what was wrong with Britain in the early 70s. Trade Unions dictating to the govt and the Courts and threatening to bring the country to its knees.
The "Pentonville Five" were locked up for breaking the law.
Of course I am serious, I mean really, yes I am!
The Labour Party went from supporting this kind of action, to importing hundreds of thousands of people to undercut the wages of the people on marches like this.
I remember this stuff from the 70s. The Labour Party was full of the then equivalent of Corbynites (anti-semitism would not matter back then) and the "Loony Left". It was unworkable. You could get nothing done because of strike disruption and when you did get it done, it was overpriced and under-spec and usually shoddily made.
Modern Labour may have gone too far, but that does not excuse the near Marxist Labour from back then.
Before my time, and I take your point that overarching Trade Unions can be more of an overall hindrance than a help, but my feeling, that you seem to sympathise with, is that Modern Labour threw the baby out with the bathwater. The majority of people on the march were probably not Loony left, Corbynite anti semites but working class people who wanted job security, same as most poorly paid people today.
It’s one of the things I find most baffling about modern left wing politics, they rail against the free market in a lot of ways but seem to consider poor peoples labour fair game
It's a big issue and I pretty much share your take except for the race and immigration angle. For me, the notion that the boss class use this to divide the workers has much going for it. This sort of thing -
It's a very interesting political question. The modern identity politics of the right is, in part, a very clear and effective way of dividing up working class people. Tabloid campaigns against EU immigrant labourers, for instance, from the offices of what are essentially billionaire-owned and plutocrat mouthpieces, defiintely bear some relation to this.
On the other hand, on some occasions, parts of the modern left are also doing the plutocrats' work for them. The insistent focus on statue issues rather than foodbanks in the Guardian, for instance, is very handy for ensuring the continuity of current working conditions, and discouraging cross-ethnic and cross-cultural working class activity.
I'd recommend Piers Wauchope's History of Camden Council, which sounds dull as ditchwater, but gives a very interesting account of how the local Labour developed between 1964 and 1986. It's a microcosm of how the Labour Party has continued to develop.
At the start of Camden Council, Labour was dominated by St. Pancras. St. Pancras' concerns were housing and employment rights. By 1986, it was dominated by Hampstead. Hampstead's concerns were women' issues, CND, and anti-apartheid.
Thanks, that sounds interesting. I was involved in Hampstead/Highgate Labour Party in the 1980s, and that sounds about right - especially the CND bit. Though they did a lot to fundraise for the miners during the strike. In 1983 they appointed a young leftie firebrand to contest the seat - name of John McDonnell. He lost (to a time-serving, hopeless Tory).
Yes, I remember McDonnell from those days, the subject of some ‘jobs for the boys’ episode on Camden council. My first foray into local politics was as a candidate in a no-hope seat in Camden in 1986, and I also did my bit to get the first ever LibDem elected to the council (and she’s still there).
It was control of India which made the British Empire a Superpower, once India got independence so Britain's Superpower status went with it
It was control of the oceans which made Britain the superpower.
And with control of Indian ports we had control of the Indian Ocean and Australian and New Zealand ports much of the Pacific, we lost much of our control of the Atlantic Ocean with the independence of the American colonies though our control of Canada and much of Africa still kept it in part.
It was only after WW2 and the late 1940s the Royal Navy ceased being the largest navy in the world which also coincided with Indian independence
I think you’ll find the Royal Navy ceased to be the largest in the world in 1924.
Admittedly, it cheated somewhat on the terms of the Washington Naval treaty by continuing to have de facto Royal Navy Fleets in Canada and Australia, but by 1945 the American Navy was far larger by any measure.
Before the usual suspects get stuck in Bout masks I’ll outline the development of use in Alicante province as I remember
Up until 15/3 no requirement apart from attending hospital or health centres From 15/3 required in those limited retail, outlets That were open, as we couldn’t leave the house then No need to wear in street From mid may limited freedom to go for a walk, mask only needed if 2m couldn’t be maintained. 28/5 limited opening of bars and restaurants masks only required when stood up inside. From 17/7 mask required in virtually all circumstances
As can be seen the use of masks has not driven the rise in infections but has been in response to it, but the usual suspects will be back claiming black is white.
I think a requirement to wear a mask outside where a distance of 2 metres can and is very easily maintained (My regular solo running routes) would be crazy overreach. It'd also people off exercising too I think - doubt we'll go down this route. I can see it being desired in busier outdoor spaces such as a requirement for zoos when they reopenthey're open, huzzah, and city centres. {Clipped for blockquote madness}
Maybe people will get fed up with working from home after a few months. We don't know yet. It feels to me like a lot of long-term decisions are being made too quickly.
For example, as I mentioned yesterday, a trade fair/show that I go to every year has just been cancelled — not just for this year and next year, but permanently. I don't know how they can make that decision so soon. (I suppose they could change their minds again if things change).
Working from home is better reclassified as work from anywhere. Sometimes that might be at home, it might be an occasional desk at the local co-working space, or even a face-to-face meeting in the local coffee shop once Covid is behind us. Often it will actually mean going into the office. So plenty of opportunity for variety for many employees if their job allows.
The trade show decision is interesting. In the job I do we also run conferences and other events. Some we have chosen to move virtually at the moment. We will take a decision on their long term future in a physical space once we understand more what life after the pandemic holds. The market for big conferences may or may not return.
A couple of interesting trends on virtual conferences already.
1/Employers quite willing and keen to book their staff on these in numbers. Often the delegate place is not that much cheaper than the equivalent physical event but feedback says that as employers aren't paying for travel, accommodation and for their employees to go on the piss they are happy to pay.
2/Lots of people making what I think will be a mistake of just dumping their physical event programmes on-line. I can't think of anything worse than sitting in front of a screen listening to talking heads for a day - we are experimenting in running our big events in bite size pieces over days and weeks.
3/The virtual market is ripe for disruption. Platforms for conferences vary wildly in functionality, cost, availability and usability. I would expect one of the big players like google or zoom to figure this out and clear up.
Agree that this has hit home more than any event in my lifetime.
Covid is strange because it is a deadly virus but it isn't a deadly virus for most people so the overall reaction is understandable and also, as we are seeing from da yoof on tour, ignorable. Certainly the measures taken, lockdown, etc are once in a lifetime events. But walking around it doesn't feel as though we are in mortal danger. Whether rightly or wrongly.
For me IIRC just before Gulf 1 there was a time when it was thought that Iran and Iraq would come together to fight the infidel, thus occasioning a literal clash of civilisations. A cultural war, but a hot one, not just one conducted in the Graun Opinion section.
Covid 19 is the biggest event of my lifetime. We aren't even halfway through and it is transforming the world.
Inter alia, it will mark the decisive moment when supreme power passed from the West to the East.
Not quite, but I suspect it will be the reference pointed use in the same way that the US is regarded to have replaced the UK as the leading power between 1939 and 1945 when in reality it was probably some time in the 1920's / 30's..
India was still part of the Empire until 1947
OK, how was India central to Britain's victories in WW1 and WW2?
For the latter, 2.5 million servicemen is quite an impressive start.
The Indian Army was vast, but not very deployable.
Otherwise The Raj would have sent 10 million men to France in 1916 and walked to Berlin.
They did send some to France, but the winter and food got them down.
The Indians were used much more in Mespot, Egypt and Gallipoli - given the importance of the Berlin-Istanbul axis (and the Berlin-Baghdad railway) it was as good a way of making their start on the walk to Berlin as any, as they had to secure the Canal and the oilfields anyway.
I agree, during the 1920s and 30s the USA was largely demilitarised and isolationist. .
Not in naval terms - it maintained a large and effective fleet between the wars, even if it was hampered by being split betweent two oceans.
It was only the Washington Treaty* that stopped the US from building a Two Ocean navy that would have been bigger than the RN and the Japanese Navy. Combined.
*well that and the Depression.
We should have let them, as Churchill later said, rather than trying to limit them.
"Build what you want - you don't figure in our plans at all, except as a potential friend".
I agree, during the 1920s and 30s the USA was largely demilitarised and isolationist. .
Not in naval terms - it maintained a large and effective fleet between the wars, even if it was hampered by being split betweent two oceans.
It was only the Washington Treaty* that stopped the US from building a Two Ocean navy that would have been bigger than the RN and the Japanese Navy. Combined.
*well that and the Depression.
We should have let them, as Churchill later said, rather than trying to limit them.
"Build what you want - you don't figure in our plans at all, except as a potential friend".
Except: "War Plan Red was one of the color-coded war plans created by the United States War Department in the late 1920s and the early 1930s to estimate the requirements for a hypothetical war with the United Kingdom (the "Red" forces)." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Plan_Red
Maybe people will get fed up with working from home after a few months. We don't know yet. It feels to me like a lot of long-term decisions are being made too quickly.
For example, as I mentioned yesterday, a trade fair/show that I go to every year has just been cancelled — not just for this year and next year, but permanently. I don't know how they can make that decision so soon. (I suppose they could change their minds again if things change).
Working from home is better reclassified as work from anywhere. Sometimes that might be at home, it might be an occasional desk at the local co-working space, or even a face-to-face meeting in the local coffee shop once Covid is behind us. Often it will actually mean going into the office. So plenty of opportunity for variety for many employees if their job allows.
The trade show decision is interesting. In the job I do we also run conferences and other events. Some we have chosen to move virtually at the moment. We will take a decision on their long term future in a physical space once we understand more what life after the pandemic holds. The market for big conferences may or may not return.
A couple of interesting trends on virtual conferences already.
1/Employers quite willing and keen to book their staff on these in numbers. Often the delegate place is not that much cheaper than the equivalent physical event but feedback says that as employers aren't paying for travel, accommodation and for their employees to go on the piss they are happy to pay.
2/Lots of people making what I think will be a mistake of just dumping their physical event programmes on-line. I can't think of anything worse than sitting in front of a screen listening to talking heads for a day - we are experimenting in running our big events in bite size pieces over days and weeks.
3/The virtual market is ripe for disruption. Platforms for conferences vary wildly in functionality, cost, availability and usability. I would expect one of the big players like google or zoom to figure this out and clear up.
On 3 - whoever solves the networking issue (which for a lot of people is more important than the talks themselves) will have it made.
I agree, during the 1920s and 30s the USA was largely demilitarised and isolationist. .
Not in naval terms - it maintained a large and effective fleet between the wars, even if it was hampered by being split betweent two oceans.
It was only the Washington Treaty* that stopped the US from building a Two Ocean navy that would have been bigger than the RN and the Japanese Navy. Combined.
*well that and the Depression.
We should have let them, as Churchill later said, rather than trying to limit them.
"Build what you want - you don't figure in our plans at all, except as a potential friend".
Except: "War Plan Red was one of the color-coded war plans created by the United States War Department in the late 1920s and the early 1930s to estimate the requirements for a hypothetical war with the United Kingdom (the "Red" forces)." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Plan_Red
Indeed, and Churchill's statement would have made it clear that such a war would never be started by us.
Agree that this has hit home more than any event in my lifetime.
Covid is strange because it is a deadly virus but it isn't a deadly virus for most people so the overall reaction is understandable and also, as we are seeing from da yoof on tour, ignorable. Certainly the measures taken, lockdown, etc are once in a lifetime events. But walking around it doesn't feel as though we are in mortal danger. Whether rightly or wrongly.
For me IIRC just before Gulf 1 there was a time when it was thought that Iran and Iraq would come together to fight the infidel, thus occasioning a literal clash of civilisations. A cultural war, but a hot one, not just one conducted in the Graun Opinion section.
Covid 19 is the biggest event of my lifetime. We aren't even halfway through and it is transforming the world.
Inter alia, it will mark the decisive moment when supreme power passed from the West to the East.
Not quite, but I suspect it will be the reference pointed use in the same way that the US is regarded to have replaced the UK as the leading power between 1939 and 1945 when in reality it was probably some time in the 1920's / 30's..
India was still part of the Empire until 1947
OK, how was India central to Britain's victories in WW1 and WW2?
For the latter, 2.5 million servicemen is quite an impressive start.
It was control of India which made the British Empire a Superpower, once India got independence so Britain's Superpower status went with it
It was control of the oceans which made Britain the superpower.
And with control of Indian ports we had control of the Indian Ocean and Australian and New Zealand ports much of the Pacific, we lost much of our control of the Atlantic Ocean with the independence of the American colonies though our control of Canada and much of Africa still kept it in part.
It was only after WW2 and the late 1940s the Royal Navy ceased being the largest navy in the world which also coincided with Indian independence
I think you’ll find the Royal Navy ceased to be the largest in the world in 1924.
Admittedly, it cheated somewhat on the terms of the Washington Naval treaty by continuing to have de facto Royal Navy Fleets in Canada and Australia, but by 1945 the American Navy was far larger by any measure.
Canada and Australia were still British dominions until well into the latter half of the 20th century. It was only after 1945 the Royal Navy substantially reduced itself
I agree, during the 1920s and 30s the USA was largely demilitarised and isolationist. .
Not in naval terms - it maintained a large and effective fleet between the wars, even if it was hampered by being split betweent two oceans.
It was only the Washington Treaty* that stopped the US from building a Two Ocean navy that would have been bigger than the RN and the Japanese Navy. Combined.
*well that and the Depression.
We should have let them, as Churchill later said, rather than trying to limit them.
"Build what you want - you don't figure in our plans at all, except as a potential friend".
Except: "War Plan Red was one of the color-coded war plans created by the United States War Department in the late 1920s and the early 1930s to estimate the requirements for a hypothetical war with the United Kingdom (the "Red" forces)." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Plan_Red
I don't think the US actually expected to use it ever. Planning is what general staffs do. Probably there's still some sort of outline in the basement of the Pentagon for the general problem of "how would we conquer Canada if the President decides maple syrup is too expensive". Probably the MoD has a plan to invade France somewhere too.
I wouldn't have thought that view would be controversial. I mean, have you seen a single piece of peer reviewed research that proves that sex with demons is safe?
I wouldn't have thought that view would be controversial. I mean, have you seen a single piece of peer reviewed research that proves that sex with demons is safe?
I wouldn't have thought that view would be controversial. I mean, have you seen a single piece of peer reviewed research that proves that sex with demons is safe?
I have seen a peer-reviewed science journal article on zombies, but not on sex with demons.
My company has ruled out long term remote working. Want everyone back in the office as soon as there's a vaccine, willing to pay privately for staff to be vaccinated if the NHS queue is too long. Open to people doing up to two days a week from home but would prefer people do one day or no days.
Essentially, the story is going to be "as you were" for us when there's a vaccine. Anecdotally I've heard similar stories across the City and for lots of London based tech workers.
Long-term, is there not going to be a competitive element to this? If you're advertising for a job, the option of home working is likely to become a big part of the equation.
If my office decrees everyone back full time my cv will be going out as I have preferred home working as have most of my colleagues. As you say I am sure there will be many firms offering full time home working after this. The company might all of a sudden find it self lacking team members.
I wouldn't have thought that view would be controversial. I mean, have you seen a single piece of peer reviewed research that proves that sex with demons is safe?
What if you drink some hydroxychloroquine to protect yourself beforehand? Could we do something like that?
Agree that this has hit home more than any event in my lifetime.
Covid is strange because it is a deadly virus but it isn't a deadly virus for most people so the overall reaction is understandable and also, as we are seeing from da yoof on tour, ignorable. Certainly the measures taken, lockdown, etc are once in a lifetime events. But walking around it doesn't feel as though we are in mortal danger. Whether rightly or wrongly.
For me IIRC just before Gulf 1 there was a time when it was thought that Iran and Iraq would come together to fight the infidel, thus occasioning a literal clash of civilisations. A cultural war, but a hot one, not just one conducted in the Graun Opinion section.
Covid 19 is the biggest event of my lifetime. We aren't even halfway through and it is transforming the world.
Inter alia, it will mark the decisive moment when supreme power passed from the West to the East.
Not quite, but I suspect it will be the reference pointed use in the same way that the US is regarded to have replaced the UK as the leading power between 1939 and 1945 when in reality it was probably some time in the 1920's / 30's..
India was still part of the Empire until 1947
OK, how was India central to Britain's victories in WW1 and WW2?
For the latter, 2.5 million servicemen is quite an impressive start.
I wouldn't have thought that view would be controversial. I mean, have you seen a single piece of peer reviewed research that proves that sex with demons is safe?
What if you drink some hydroxychloroquine to protect yourself beforehand? Could we do something like that?
I agree, during the 1920s and 30s the USA was largely demilitarised and isolationist. .
Not in naval terms - it maintained a large and effective fleet between the wars, even if it was hampered by being split betweent two oceans.
It was only the Washington Treaty* that stopped the US from building a Two Ocean navy that would have been bigger than the RN and the Japanese Navy. Combined.
*well that and the Depression.
We should have let them, as Churchill later said, rather than trying to limit them.
"Build what you want - you don't figure in our plans at all, except as a potential friend".
Except: "War Plan Red was one of the color-coded war plans created by the United States War Department in the late 1920s and the early 1930s to estimate the requirements for a hypothetical war with the United Kingdom (the "Red" forces)." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Plan_Red
I don't think the US actually expected to use it ever. Planning is what general staffs do. Probably there's still some sort of outline in the basement of the Pentagon for the general problem of "how would we conquer Canada if the President decides maple syrup is too expensive". Probably the MoD has a plan to invade France somewhere too.
But what if (say) Britain went Communist? It woould be very germane then.
An American equivalent of the problem which the French Navy posed to the British Navy on the fall of France and the signing of an armistice with thr Germans in 1940.
My company has ruled out long term remote working. Want everyone back in the office as soon as there's a vaccine, willing to pay privately for staff to be vaccinated if the NHS queue is too long. Open to people doing up to two days a week from home but would prefer people do one day or no days.
Essentially, the story is going to be "as you were" for us when there's a vaccine. Anecdotally I've heard similar stories across the City and for lots of London based tech workers.
Long-term, is there not going to be a competitive element to this? If you're advertising for a job, the option of home working is likely to become a big part of the equation.
If my office decrees everyone back full time my cv will be going out as I have preferred home working as have most of my colleagues. As you say I am sure there will be many firms offering full time home working after this. The company might all of a sudden find it self lacking team members.
With the levels of unemployment coming your company would have a very long queue of replacements
It was control of India which made the British Empire a Superpower, once India got independence so Britain's Superpower status went with it
It was control of the oceans which made Britain the superpower.
And with control of Indian ports we had control of the Indian Ocean and Australian and New Zealand ports much of the Pacific, we lost much of our control of the Atlantic Ocean with the independence of the American colonies though our control of Canada and much of Africa still kept it in part.
It was only after WW2 and the late 1940s the Royal Navy ceased being the largest navy in the world which also coincided with Indian independence
I think you’ll find the Royal Navy ceased to be the largest in the world in 1924.
Admittedly, it cheated somewhat on the terms of the Washington Naval treaty by continuing to have de facto Royal Navy Fleets in Canada and Australia, but by 1945 the American Navy was far larger by any measure.
Canada and Australia were still British dominions until well into the latter half of the 20th century. It was only after 1945 the Royal Navy substantially reduced itself
No they weren’t. Even if I assumed Australia was not independent de facto from 1901 (which it was) South Africa, Australia, Newfoundland, New Zealand and Canada were made formally independent of British rule by the Statute of Westminster in 1931.
My company has ruled out long term remote working. Want everyone back in the office as soon as there's a vaccine, willing to pay privately for staff to be vaccinated if the NHS queue is too long. Open to people doing up to two days a week from home but would prefer people do one day or no days.
Essentially, the story is going to be "as you were" for us when there's a vaccine. Anecdotally I've heard similar stories across the City and for lots of London based tech workers.
Long-term, is there not going to be a competitive element to this? If you're advertising for a job, the option of home working is likely to become a big part of the equation.
If my office decrees everyone back full time my cv will be going out as I have preferred home working as have most of my colleagues. As you say I am sure there will be many firms offering full time home working after this. The company might all of a sudden find it self lacking team members.
With the levels of unemployment coming your company would have a very long queue of replacements
But probably not suitably qualified ones nor ones that you would actually want.
I'm looking for a salesman at the moment, oh boy the CVs I'm getting are bad.
I wouldn't have thought that view would be controversial. I mean, have you seen a single piece of peer reviewed research that proves that sex with demons is safe?
I have seen a peer-reviewed science journal article on zombies, but not on sex with demons.
I don't do it - 'better safe than sorry' is my motto when it comes to having sex with a demon.
Without offices how different would the learning process in your twenties be? Understanding the technology, how different parts of a business fit together, how to manage and get the best out of people. Maybe I am a luddite but I dont see how that knowledge gets assimilated effectively by the next generation.
Perhaps this is a drawbridge moment, those with experience gained pre 2020 will have an enduring and significant advantage over those yet to gain it. Yet again the interests of the young will be ignored for the benefit of the rest of society.
I wouldn't have thought that view would be controversial. I mean, have you seen a single piece of peer reviewed research that proves that sex with demons is safe?
Objective replicability and measurability would be issues. And so would double blind trials. No placebo would be convincing.
Suppose you decide to go to work immediately after returning from Spain. Is a company within it's right to suspend you for the quarantine period (without pay) or even dismiss you (gross misconduct by potentially making other employees ill).
I reckon most workplaces would send you home. Compliance with Gov't regulations is high up most employers agendas, or at least it should be.
It was control of India which made the British Empire a Superpower, once India got independence so Britain's Superpower status went with it
It was control of the oceans which made Britain the superpower.
Indeed. I've never been that interested in the 18th century - always preferred the Victorian era, but it was during that time that Britain turned away from land wars on the continent, and decided to 'rule the waves'. It was a policy that served us extremely well, until we... ...decided to get into a huge land war on the continent again.
There are lessons for current policy makers in that.
Interesting background on how the Lincoln Project works. Apparently they started with very little money and are still not a big hitter financially, but cheeky advertising durinmg interviews with Trump got small donations pouring in and they flourish by doing sharp, rapidly-made ad on current themes which frequently go viral. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lincoln_Project
Without offices how different would the learning process in your twenties be? Understanding the technology, how different parts of a business fit together, how to manage and get the best out of people. Maybe I am a luddite but I dont see how that knowledge gets assimilated effectively by the next generation.
Perhaps this is a drawbridge moment, those with experience gained pre 2020 will have an enduring and significant advantage over those yet to gain it. Yet again the interests of the young will be ignored for the benefit of the rest of society.
Did you miss the bit where others pointed out that if their company expected 100% office working they (and most others) would be seeking to join more wfh friendly companies?
The idea that a company can return to the old ways of 5 days in the office has gone forever - I did think about adding the word probably in there but actually, no it has gone.
Now training new starters is going to be harder work compared to before but over time suitable methods will be found as otherwise companies will have longer term problems.
Interesting background on how the Lincoln Project works. Apparently they started with very little money and are still not a big hitter financially, but cheeky advertising durinmg interviews with Trump got small donations pouring in and they flourish by doing sharp, rapidly-made ad on current themes which frequently go viral. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lincoln_Project
From what Ive seen it does seem to have moved away from carefully targetting Republicans against Trump and evolved into another general mocking of Trump that we were not already short of. A tactical mistake if my casual observation from afar is correct.
Do they want to be viral or niche? Niche is where they can change votes, viral is where they can make a name for themselves.
It was control of India which made the British Empire a Superpower, once India got independence so Britain's Superpower status went with it
It was control of the oceans which made Britain the superpower.
Indeed. I've never been that interested in the 18th century - always preferred the Victorian era, but it was during that time that Britain turned away from land wars on the continent, and decided to 'rule the waves'. It was a policy that served us extremely well, until we... ...decided to get into a huge land war on the continent again.
There are lessons for current policy makers in that.
Who do you think would have ruled the waves in 1920 if Germany had defeated France again?
It was control of India which made the British Empire a Superpower, once India got independence so Britain's Superpower status went with it
It was control of the oceans which made Britain the superpower.
Indeed. I've never been that interested in the 18th century - always preferred the Victorian era, but it was during that time that Britain turned away from land wars on the continent, and decided to 'rule the waves'. It was a policy that served us extremely well, until we... ...decided to get into a huge land war on the continent again.
There are lessons for current policy makers in that.
Who do you think would have ruled the waves in 1920 if Germany had defeated France again?
Depends in part what happened to the French navy - nutral internment, takeover or escape to exile? And wherther the Italians were defeated in the Med.
I wouldn't have thought that view would be controversial. I mean, have you seen a single piece of peer reviewed research that proves that sex with demons is safe?
Don't fall for the spin of the succubus lobby groups . . .
Latest data shows a rising swell. Not a surge or wave yet but worrying. England 14.5 reported cases in last 14 days per 100,000. Low point was 13.7 two weeks ago. London 9.9 reported cases in the last 14 days pr 100,000. Low point was 6.7 four weeks ago.
Without offices how different would the learning process in your twenties be? Understanding the technology, how different parts of a business fit together, how to manage and get the best out of people. Maybe I am a luddite but I dont see how that knowledge gets assimilated effectively by the next generation.
Perhaps this is a drawbridge moment, those with experience gained pre 2020 will have an enduring and significant advantage over those yet to gain it. Yet again the interests of the young will be ignored for the benefit of the rest of society.
Now training new starters is going to be harder work compared to before but over time suitable methods will be found as otherwise companies will have longer term problems.
I find this sentence confusing. They will find a way because they must, in essence? But that's just it, they might not, or not quickly, particularly if the impacts are hard to quantify, as I suspect is the case here. They must, but not right away, which spells trouble.
They should find suitable alternative methods, and probably will (adapting ones used more sporadically already), but that doesn't mean that they definitely will, so longer term problems is pretty high risk.
I agree, during the 1920s and 30s the USA was largely demilitarised and isolationist. .
Not in naval terms - it maintained a large and effective fleet between the wars, even if it was hampered by being split betweent two oceans.
It was only the Washington Treaty* that stopped the US from building a Two Ocean navy that would have been bigger than the RN and the Japanese Navy. Combined.
*well that and the Depression.
We should have let them, as Churchill later said, rather than trying to limit them.
"Build what you want - you don't figure in our plans at all, except as a potential friend".
Except: "War Plan Red was one of the color-coded war plans created by the United States War Department in the late 1920s and the early 1930s to estimate the requirements for a hypothetical war with the United Kingdom (the "Red" forces)." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Plan_Red
I don't think the US actually expected to use it ever. Planning is what general staffs do. Probably there's still some sort of outline in the basement of the Pentagon for the general problem of "how would we conquer Canada if the President decides maple syrup is too expensive". Probably the MoD has a plan to invade France somewhere too.
You can't possibly know that. US policy (perhaps understandably) toward Britain since the inception of the country has been ambivalent at best. Their participation in both world wars was belated and it was by no means certain which side they would join. Even in the modern era being their best buddy ever hasn't stopped them shaking down BP and Standard Chartered.
Getting some of our managers "working from home" has been very helpful. It keeps them out of our way when we are doing stuff.
I am fairly certain that a portion of the "Back to the Office!" is coming from managers who are sitting at home, realising their teams are doing good work. Without more than a couple hours a week of input from the said managers....
If that goes ahead it seems like it will be the most fruitless strike in decades.
It would be the 1980 British Steel strike on speed.
I doubt it would last that long. I was more thinking it would be as successful and last as long as the Air Traffic Controllers strike in the USA in 1981.
There are plenty of peer-reviewed trials of cases of sex with demons, dating from the middle ages. They tended to end very badly for those most involved.
Slightly smaller swing to Biden than nationally - arguably a good thing given its implication as to how the national swing translates into ECVs.
Only 78% preferencing either candidate, even this far out from the election, is exceptionally low. And Gary Johnson put in one of the best third party efforts in 2016 and that is very unlikely to be repeated this year, so that makes it even worse. This is a pollster that got Hillary spot on and Biden is 5 points below that level. So not really good for either side.
Those low preference numbers seem pretty unusual for this election. I'll run an analysis, but I think we're probably seeing a great percentage of voters who say they've made up their mind than in 2016.
But is that actually real though or is it because the samples are not representative in terms of interest in politics?
That's an excellent question.
And none of us know for sure. I suspect it's probably real, because we had the same issue back in 2018, and there was a lot of scepticism that midterm turnout would be particularly high. Yet it was. I think the Dems got 40% more than their previous record in terms of absolute number of votes in midterm House elections.
I think you should be bold in stating who on here loudly trumpeted that it was going to be record levels of mid-term turnout .
There are plenty of peer-reviewed trials of cases of sex with demons, dating from the middle ages. They tended to end very badly for those most involved.
I agree, during the 1920s and 30s the USA was largely demilitarised and isolationist. .
Not in naval terms - it maintained a large and effective fleet between the wars, even if it was hampered by being split betweent two oceans.
It was only the Washington Treaty* that stopped the US from building a Two Ocean navy that would have been bigger than the RN and the Japanese Navy. Combined.
*well that and the Depression.
We should have let them, as Churchill later said, rather than trying to limit them.
"Build what you want - you don't figure in our plans at all, except as a potential friend".
Except: "War Plan Red was one of the color-coded war plans created by the United States War Department in the late 1920s and the early 1930s to estimate the requirements for a hypothetical war with the United Kingdom (the "Red" forces)." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Plan_Red
I don't think the US actually expected to use it ever. Planning is what general staffs do. Probably there's still some sort of outline in the basement of the Pentagon for the general problem of "how would we conquer Canada if the President decides maple syrup is too expensive". Probably the MoD has a plan to invade France somewhere too.
You can't possibly know that. US policy (perhaps understandably) toward Britain since the inception of the country has been ambivalent at best. Their participation in both world wars was belated and it was by no means certain which side they would join. Even in the modern era being their best buddy ever hasn't stopped them shaking down BP and Standard Chartered.
Not to mention the full-scale invasion of Grenada, just when Mrs T thought she and Ron were BFF.
Without offices how different would the learning process in your twenties be? Understanding the technology, how different parts of a business fit together, how to manage and get the best out of people. Maybe I am a luddite but I dont see how that knowledge gets assimilated effectively by the next generation.
Perhaps this is a drawbridge moment, those with experience gained pre 2020 will have an enduring and significant advantage over those yet to gain it. Yet again the interests of the young will be ignored for the benefit of the rest of society.
Now training new starters is going to be harder work compared to before but over time suitable methods will be found as otherwise companies will have longer term problems.
I find this sentence confusing. They will find a way because they must, in essence? But that's just it, they might not, or not quickly, particularly if the impacts are hard to quantify, as I suspect is the case here. They must, but not right away, which spells trouble.
They should find suitable alternative methods, and probably will (adapting ones used more sporadically already), but that doesn't mean that they definitely will, so longer term problems is pretty high risk.
No, more because over time the issue will be addressed. I came back to post this anyway https://pando.com/2020/07/22/unbundling-udemy/ but it shows how the market has taken a product that just about worked (udemy) and over a couple of iterations slowly fixed the missing bits in the earlier iterations.
That will be the same here, those companies that have decent on-boarding practices will eventually as people leave spread those ideas elsewhere.
Heck I introduced to Microsoft Consulting Services (of all companies) the concept of the on-boarding document where your first job is to follow the steps (setting up your computer) contained within it and update anything that has changed. The important bit is that you never give people the absolutely latest version, let them find things that don't work and resolve the issue. You learn an awful lot about people from how they react to such issues.
Without offices how different would the learning process in your twenties be? Understanding the technology, how different parts of a business fit together, how to manage and get the best out of people. Maybe I am a luddite but I dont see how that knowledge gets assimilated effectively by the next generation.
Perhaps this is a drawbridge moment, those with experience gained pre 2020 will have an enduring and significant advantage over those yet to gain it. Yet again the interests of the young will be ignored for the benefit of the rest of society.
Did you miss the bit where others pointed out that if their company expected 100% office working they (and most others) would be seeking to join more wfh friendly companies?
The idea that a company can return to the old ways of 5 days in the office has gone forever - I did think about adding the word probably in there but actually, no it has gone.
Now training new starters is going to be harder work compared to before but over time suitable methods will be found as otherwise companies will have longer term problems.
This site is skewed to well off over 50s, over 50s are only about a third of the workforce. Businesses will need the under 30s as well (or at least historically have done, as I point out, perhaps they will be an ignored generation). Working from home appeals far less to those as they learn less so future earnings are lower for them, they miss out more on the social scene and they would be working in shared cramped flats rather than nice houses with a garden.
Without offices how different would the learning process in your twenties be? Understanding the technology, how different parts of a business fit together, how to manage and get the best out of people. Maybe I am a luddite but I dont see how that knowledge gets assimilated effectively by the next generation.
Perhaps this is a drawbridge moment, those with experience gained pre 2020 will have an enduring and significant advantage over those yet to gain it. Yet again the interests of the young will be ignored for the benefit of the rest of society.
Now training new starters is going to be harder work compared to before but over time suitable methods will be found as otherwise companies will have longer term problems.
I find this sentence confusing. They will find a way because they must, in essence? But that's just it, they might not, or not quickly, particularly if the impacts are hard to quantify, as I suspect is the case here. They must, but not right away, which spells trouble.
They should find suitable alternative methods, and probably will (adapting ones used more sporadically already), but that doesn't mean that they definitely will, so longer term problems is pretty high risk.
No, more because over time the issue will be addressed. I came back to post this anyway https://pando.com/2020/07/22/unbundling-udemy/ but it shows how the market has taken a product that just about worked (udemy) and over a couple of iterations slowly fixed the missing bits in the earlier iterations.
That will be the same here, those companies that have decent on-boarding practices will eventually as people leave spread those ideas elsewhere.
Heck I introduced to Microsoft Consulting Services (of all companies) the concept of the on-boarding document where your first job is to follow the steps (setting up your computer) contained within it and update anything that has changed. The important bit is that you never give people the absolutely latest version, let them find things that don't work and resolve the issue. You learn an awful lot about people from how they react to such issues.
It's the 'over time' bit I have a problem with, particularly how long that might mean for many places and industries. I'm far from confident it will be of a time that won't mean big impacts.
Most people have sacrificed a lot of normal living to get through this. The rush to go on foreign travel is incomprehensible to me. No wonder there is little sympathy. I suspect there will be some minor relaxations for some of the Spanish islands but it's not justified in mainland Spain where there are outbreaks in a lot of tourist spots already. I live in one such area - my province now has the highest number of cases in Andalucia - all within about 3 weeks. And today for the first time we saw increases in hospital and ICU cases. The response of the authorities is poor as they are clearly concerned about tourist revenue. Not cool.
Comments
“The problem with fiction, it has to be plausible. That's not true with non-fiction.”
― Tom Wolfe
- (looks outside) -
Nobody seems to have been told.
'The head of Germany's public health agency has said he is "very concerned" by rising infections in the country...At a press conference on Tuesday, Mr Wieler asked people for the first time to wear a mask outdoors if they cannot maintain a physical distance of at least 1.5 metres (5ft).
Previously the guidance had been to wear masks indoors in public.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53566880
Before the usual suspects get stuck in Bout masks I’ll outline the development of use in Alicante province as I remember
Up until 15/3 no requirement apart from attending hospital or health centres
From 15/3 required in those limited retail, outlets That were open, as we couldn’t leave the house then No need to wear in street
From mid may limited freedom to go for a walk, mask only needed if 2m couldn’t be maintained.
28/5 limited opening of bars and restaurants masks only required when stood up inside.
From 17/7 mask required in virtually all circumstances
As can be seen the use of masks has not driven the rise in infections but has been in response to it, but the usual suspects will be back claiming black is white.
Command of the oceans* was indeed the key. With it and overseas lands are an asset, without it, they are liabilities. It was loss of control of the oceans that did in Japan, and arguably Germany too.
* an island in those days was defined as a piece of land completely surrounded by the Royal Navy.
https://twitter.com/BBCArchive/status/1288123294684549125?s=20
To quote Hong Kong democracy activists:
China does not own Hong Kong*
China does not own Tibet*
China does not own Taiwan
China does own Coronavirus.
*Yes, I know it does really, but I’m quoting people who think it shouldn’t.
Suppose you decide to go to work immediately after returning from Spain. Is a company within it's right to suspend you for the quarantine period (without pay) or even dismiss you (gross misconduct by potentially making other employees ill).
It was only after WW2 and the late 1940s the Royal Navy ceased being the largest navy in the world which also coincided with Indian independence
https://www.bl.uk/learning/timeline/item124212.html
In World War I it was 1.3 million, 74,000 of whom were killed (about 8% of the total from the British Empire).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-33317368
WW2 - as above, only more so re oil, and stopping the Germans outflanking the USSR while maintaining supply routes to the USSR and China.
(IMO, they're still missing a big trick in terms of an opportunity to get furloughed workers/others into training schemes for new industries through some combination of adult education and university partnerships)
In public health terms they've done poorly overall, with their initial decisions like delaying lockdown, stopping contact tracing and failure to protect care homes particularly disastrous.
In a nice reversal however, recent decisions on public health look better - e.g. the obesity campaign, reacting swiftly to a surge in Spain (bad headlines be damned).
Otherwise The Raj would have sent 10 million men to France in 1916 and walked to Berlin.
And none of us know for sure. I suspect it's probably real, because we had the same issue back in 2018, and there was a lot of scepticism that midterm turnout would be particularly high. Yet it was. I think the Dems got 40% more than their previous record in terms of absolute number of votes in midterm House elections.
The decisive naval campaigns were (as so often) fought elsewhere than the Indian Ocean, like one near a Spanish headland called Cape Trafalgar. It really was a world war from 1793-1815.
*well that and the Depression.
Admittedly, it cheated somewhat on the terms of the Washington Naval treaty by continuing to have de facto Royal Navy Fleets in Canada and Australia, but by 1945 the American Navy was far larger by any measure.
I can see it being desired in busier outdoor spaces such as a requirement for zoos when they reopen they're open, huzzah, and city centres.
{Clipped for blockquote madness}
The trade show decision is interesting. In the job I do we also run conferences and other events. Some we have chosen to move virtually at the moment. We will take a decision on their long term future in a physical space once we understand more what life after the pandemic holds. The market for big conferences may or may not return.
A couple of interesting trends on virtual conferences already.
1/Employers quite willing and keen to book their staff on these in numbers. Often the delegate place is not that much cheaper than the equivalent physical event but feedback says that as employers aren't paying for travel, accommodation and for their employees to go on the piss they are happy to pay.
2/Lots of people making what I think will be a mistake of just dumping their physical event programmes on-line. I can't think of anything worse than sitting in front of a screen listening to talking heads for a day - we are experimenting in running our big events in bite size pieces over days and weeks.
3/The virtual market is ripe for disruption. Platforms for conferences vary wildly in functionality, cost, availability and usability. I would expect one of the big players like google or zoom to figure this out and clear up.
The Indians were used much more in Mespot, Egypt and Gallipoli - given the importance of the Berlin-Istanbul axis (and the Berlin-Baghdad railway) it was as good a way of making their start on the walk to Berlin as any, as they had to secure the Canal and the oilfields anyway.
"Build what you want - you don't figure in our plans at all, except as a potential friend".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Plan_Red
compare with yesterdays -
All under the superb command of Bill Slim, superior to Monty in just about every way.
Trump easy - 5%
Trump close - 15%
Biden close - 30%
Biden easy - 50%
An American equivalent of the problem which the French Navy posed to the British Navy on the fall of France and the signing of an armistice with thr Germans in 1940.
I'm looking for a salesman at the moment, oh boy the CVs I'm getting are bad.
Perhaps this is a drawbridge moment, those with experience gained pre 2020 will have an enduring and significant advantage over those yet to gain it. Yet again the interests of the young will be ignored for the benefit of the rest of society.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jul/28/british-airways-ba-cabin-crew-warn-of-immediate-strike-over-plans-to-cut-12000-jobs
There are lessons for current policy makers in that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lincoln_Project
The idea that a company can return to the old ways of 5 days in the office has gone forever - I did think about adding the word probably in there but actually, no it has gone.
Now training new starters is going to be harder work compared to before but over time suitable methods will be found as otherwise companies will have longer term problems.
Do they want to be viral or niche? Niche is where they can change votes, viral is where they can make a name for themselves.
Won't make any difference though, BA simply don't need those people anymore.
England 14.5 reported cases in last 14 days per 100,000.
Low point was 13.7 two weeks ago.
London 9.9 reported cases in the last 14 days pr 100,000.
Low point was 6.7 four weeks ago.
They should find suitable alternative methods, and probably will (adapting ones used more sporadically already), but that doesn't mean that they definitely will, so longer term problems is pretty high risk.
Ahem.
*Waits*
That will be the same here, those companies that have decent on-boarding practices will eventually as people leave spread those ideas elsewhere.
Heck I introduced to Microsoft Consulting Services (of all companies) the concept of the on-boarding document where your first job is to follow the steps (setting up your computer) contained within it and update anything that has changed. The important bit is that you never give people the absolutely latest version, let them find things that don't work and resolve the issue. You learn an awful lot about people from how they react to such issues.