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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some assorted Presidential election betting markets
Paddy Power have some interesting markets on the Presidential election, first up is the 1/4 on Biden winning the popular vote by five million votes or more, which would be more impressive than the near three million votes Hillary Clinton bested Donald Trump with in 2016.
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***** Betting Post *****
Despite all the negativity currently emanating from both the British and European negotiating teams as regards a trade deal being agreed and signed up by 31 Dec. 2020, the one betting market (Smarkets) offering such a market appears surprisingly confident that just such a deal can and will be done within this timescale.
The latest traded prices being:
Yes ..... 1.69 (59.17%)
No....... 2.20 (45.45%)
Am I missing something here on what looks like a good bet on no deal?
As ever, DYOR.
From Smarkets' market rules:
If the UK and EU sign a trade deal between the 16th January 2020 and the 31st December 2020 this market will be settled as yes. If the trade deal is agreed in this period but comes into force at a later date, this market will be settled for yes.
This market covers any trade deal, either sector by sector or a complete deal.
If no trade deal is signed in this period between the EU and UK this market will be settled for no.
https://smarkets.com/event/40554343/politics/uk/brexit/trade-deals
So if even sector-specific deals count for "yes" then I'd not want to risk the rent money on "no".
Coronavirus: 'Devastated' travellers react to Spain quarantine rules
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53541503
If they didn’t know there was a risk of this happening, they’re idiots.
If they knew the risk, and went ahead anyway, well, the risk went sour. Bad luck.
If they knew the risk but thought it magically didn’t apply to them, they’re arrogant beyond the point of a Cummings or a Corbyn.
There is a reason why I have booked an October break in Wales, rather than the Med as I usually try for. And I won’t be going abroad again until the Rona is under control.
Yes, I will miss my nice sunny holidays, but I would miss two weeks’ pay much more.
Surprised its not more local, whats going on in Barcelona, doesnt really have any impact on whats happening in the Canary Islands or Majorca. That would have been better but we should have learnt speed is important.
It will be interesting to see the same commentariat blaming the govt being too slow to lockdown previously for being too quick to lockdown now.
Perhaps they implemented it just so the rest of the cabinet dont have to see Shapps for two weeks, I couldnt blame them for that.
The EU can have
1. No deal on level playing field and no deal on anything
2. No deal on level playing field but a whole series of deals on everything else.
Barnier getting 1. really would demonstrate that his months of meetings are not about pragmatism but instead about punishment.
A cursory look on easyJet one day a couple of weeks ago showed some genuiely stupid prices. One adult 2 kids return including hold baggage for £360 return. In August. Ah sod it, worst they can do is impose quarantine for when you get back - which they have - but its the summer holidays, my kids enjoy hibernating with computer games anyway and we can just about squeeze 2 weeks hibernation in before we all go up to Scotland.
C'est la vie. Here's thing though. Lets assume the government hasn't overreacted and isn't going to perform a uturn before the end of the day. This ends the travel and tourism industry. You can't postpone your holiday into next year because the hotels cafes restaurants at your destination will have gone bankrupt as will the airline you were going to travel with. Nobody will now book anything to go anywhere due to the Martini menace.
And thats just the travel industry. The Spanish experience points the way to our own future where we spike again and stuff gets shut down, starting with the things the government of fools insist you can do safely indoors with no mask for profit such as gyms, cinemas, pubs, restaurants.
The government are going to have to extend furlough and other support or face the consequences of the financial and political cataclyism that is 6m people trying to claim UC having been gaslit to think its plenty of cash only to find its three fifths of fuck all.
Government could have actively encouraged the spending of UK pounds in the UK, helping domestic hospitality trades and the balance of payments.
Instead, presumably because the airlines are a powerful lobby group, it has been encouraging people to fly overseas and convert British pounds into Euros and "spaff" them into a Spanish nightclub urinal.
But the holiday companies, airlines and media all lobbied hard and got their air bridges, only for popular destinations to have a virus outbreak and be removed from the list.
The question now is how easily can the UK government enforce quarantine on tens of thousands of people on their return? Apart from a few idiots who post pictures of their life constantly, or 'famous' people who might get caught by the paparazzi, it's not going to be easy. Are we expecting police to knock on doors every couple of days to make sure you're home?
http://www.ipharminc.com/press-release/2020/7/20/innovation-pharmaceuticals-brilacidin-inhibits-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-by-almost-90-at-the-lowest-concentration-tested-to-date-in-a-human-lung-cell-line
Recently released in vitro data showed Brilacidin exhibited a potent inhibitory effect on SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus responsible for COVID-19, in a human lung epithelial cell line—reducing viral load by 95 percent and 97 percent at two efficacious concentrations tested, compared to control (DMSO).
It might show some efficacy, as it appears to show considerably more activity than Remdesivir.
Similarly to (the British) Synairgen’s inhaled interferon, which has a possibility of being very effective indeed, it was in early human trials around a decade ago.
Will be a few months before it’s in clinical trials again.
We’ve now moved on from the emergency fund to a new, larger, resilience fund. There’s lots of support out there. The British people are incredibly generous
His comments are relevant but I doubt Boris will be in office if and when another referendum is agreed
My interview in today’s @ObserverUK 👇 https://twitter.com/ObserverUK/status/1287283773864677377
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/grant-shapps-holiday-spain-quarantine-coronavirus-transport-secretary-a9638166.html
I mean, I am genuinely unsure. If I were somehow magically made leader of the Lib Dems, I am not sure what I would do.
"Our policy is not to support an independence referendum" and Labour won't push for one says @JonAshworth
He says Labour "is not a pro-independence party" and believes "in the strength of the union."
#Ridge https://twitter.com/RidgeOnSunday/status/1287296944201773056/video/1
Finally
Now to get rid of Leonard
Raab very good on Sophy
He will only cement his place if he withdraws the whip from Corbyn and all his fellow travellers post ECHR
Labour will then be a credible force
Starmer of all people will be careful, he won't do things without evidence...
In fact, there have been one or two cases of spreading events in pubs, but nothing on a large scale. The triage phone call stats remain flat. Hospitalisations continue to trend downwards.
Now, even assuming that bringing the schools back doesn't muck everything up first then yes, this might change towards the end of the year when all those nasty coughs, colds and flu get going - but frankly we can't go back to April and sit at home pissing ourselves out of fear of hypotheticals. For all we know, firstly there may be at least a partially effective vaccine available by the Winter, so that we can substantially reduce both the severity and transmissibility of the virus, and secondly it may have been squashed to such low levels by that point that it simply can't spread around enough people without being intercepted to cause a second major outbreak anyway.
At this point we must also remember that we didn't elect Labour last year and that, consequently, doing stuff "for profit" is not actually evil. If the re-opening of restaurants indoors isn't causing great chunks of the population to fall ill with Plague and start dropping down dead again - which the evidence suggests it is not - then what's wrong with that? The greater the opportunity for these business to make money, the better. And condemning the Government for its mistakes earlier in the year doesn't mean that it's not making the right decisions now.
Where I am more confident is that I am 99.9 % sure that, if elected Lib Dem leader, she will be a disaster on many, many fronts.
I really don't understand the people who feel the need to go holiday in the middle of a global pandemic, and I type this from one of the places that usually empties out over the summer as hundreds of thousands of people travel to escape the heat! Very few people are leaving here this summer, and the local beach hotels are doing good offers if people want to get away for a few days. Strict immigration controls and lots of testing have allowed entertainment venues to re-open, although with reduced capacities.
With the number of cases worldwide still rising rapidly, places with a lot of travel were always going to get hit by a second wave once that travel resumed.
I don't know anyone travelling for leisure reasons at the moment, among a group of friends who are all pretty frequent flyers. I've not been on a plane since January, and usually do three or four trips a month. I'll be staying off planes until I've had a vaccine, thanks very much!
Of course with 40%+ of current SLab voters supporting Indy and a majority for indy ref II, you may have to replace some voters too.
It's a strange thing - yesterday in conversation I pronounced him with the Connery method "Schtarmer" - and the person I was talking to immediately thought of Allo Allo. It may have helped that I am still wearing my thin leather lockdown gloves outdoors.
Particle sizes of infectious aerosols: implications for infection control
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30323-4/fulltext
... These data show that infectious aerosols from humans exist in a wide range of particle sizes that are strikingly consistent across studies, methods, and pathogens. There is no evidence to support the concept that most respiratory infections are associated with primarily large droplet transmission. In fact, small particle aerosols are the rule, rather than the exception, contrary to current guidelines.12 These small particles occur without a need for a prolonged time to allow for desiccation, and they are of a size that is immediately respirable. These data also add evidence that could update the current dichotomous infection control guidelines, as was proposed 9 years ago....
It's a difficulty of making markets, to consider all the many ways in which the outcome might not be straightforward. But that's why they earn their commission.
Is that a Shirley Williams, and what is "The Garden Nook". Either gardening or am I hearing echoes of Bloomsbury Group, which would be very Layla.
The Mac is a black mark, however.
Now, personally I'd rather they'd never put themselves into the situation in the first place by simply keeping the advice not to travel abroad full stop, and encourage the populace either to save its money or take its holidays here. But we are where we are, and the Spanish situation seems to me to have been handled properly.
That suggests Biden is better placed than Hillary to win the Electoral College but Trump could do better than he did in 2016 in coastal states like California and in the popular vote if he recovers with middle income voters too
If you’re in a position to quarantine when you get back, and do it 100% well ok I guess, but I still think it’s frankly just a bit daft.
The Govt seems, hopefully, to be learning, on a brighter note. They’re clearly of the view now that lockdown was too late ( why is for the enquiry ), and that if anything erring on the side of not faffing around with local lockdowns and travel restrictions is the way forwards.
There is going to be a lot of stop/start till we get a vaccine.
I do wonder what could possibly be in there that was not already known for alleged in respect of Corbyn personally.
1.69 is therefore unbelievable value. Tempted to open an account with Smarkets just to do it.
UBI.
Abolish HoL.
Fully federal UK with English parliament in Hunstanton.
Free broadband.
He did get a lot more votes
We shall have to see if further evidence emerges to back this study up, but it just goes to remind us that our knowledge of this situation is fluid and ever-changing. As I remarked yesterday, back in April received wisdom was that cyclists and joggers were selfish, evil plague spreaders who all deserved to be shot; now that outdoor exercise is appreciated to be very low risk and obesity the single most important controllable risk factor for the disease, they're Heroes of the Revolution.
In the same way, received wisdom right now is that masks are essential because they catch coughs and sneezes; in another three or four months we might very well be right back to where we were in March, when they were regarded as worse than useless because they offer very limited protection, they're often not worn properly, they get filthy and people end up infecting themselves by fiddling with them, pulling them down and back up all the time and touching their faces in the process.
Or not. Evidence, evidence, more evidence is always helpful.
https://twitter.com/AngusRobertson/status/1287304517801971713?s=20
This is a betting site and discussions about the prospects for 2024 election are understandable but nobody can have any idea of the outcome as all parties face the fallout of covid 19 and the upsetting of traditional ideas and ways of working
To be fair even I do not know who I will be voting for in 2024
Nothing is going to be the same again and it is how everyone adapts to the change coming and the consequences that will not only shape political parties but the policies and even the viability of those policies
Plus if you have been on holiday there is a good chance your colleagues will know you’ve been to Spain
Oops, done it now...
I suppose moving Parliament to Hunstanton could prevent an Independent Norfolk, although I maintain it is probably already operating under an unofficial UDI. I don't believe HMRC and DVLA rules apply there anyway.
I could very easily see (days of rise)
Day 1 - noise
Day 2 - what’s going on?
Day 3 - we’ve an issue: prepare paper for committee
Day 4 - scientific committee makes recommendation
Day 5 - minister reviews and agrees. Policy announced and implemented immediately
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/face-coverings-when-to-wear-one-and-how-to-make-your-own/face-coverings-when-to-wear-one-and-how-to-make-your-own
Impracticable for most, surely?