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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After another lacklustre Johnson PMQs performance a reminder how well Sunak has been polling
One of the most remarkable stories since Johnson became CON leader and PM a year ago has been the rise and rise of Rishi Sunak who just a year ago was parliamentary secretary for local government. Now he’s favourite to succeed Johnson as CON leader and second favourite behind Starmer of becoming the next PM.
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"Additionally, following the murders of George Floyd, Ahmaud Arbery, and Breonna Taylor, "
Err, isn't that prejudicing the trial / slander?
The party will defenestrate failing leaders but it took years to get rid of even Theresa May. Johnson is no May. Two terms is a good length of time for a PM, 2028 gives Sunak a year to be in charge before the 2029 General Election.
https://twitter.com/edwest/status/1285856216787361795?s=21
Patel not gifted enough and Gove tainted. But there's one clever fellow winning plaudits for his stance on China and Russia.
Could 2024 be a legal borathon between two lawyers, Sir Keir Starmer and.....Dominic Raab?
The people who killed them may not be convicted for murder but that's never stopped murder victims from being referred to as having been murdered before or during the trial before.
When you're talking about the accused it is "accused murderer" but when you're talking about the victim there is no 'innocent until proven guilty' requirement for the murder victim.
Peacefully at home (location unclear) after a long illness, 'RBS will leave an indy Scotland' passed away in its sleep surrounded by regretful Unionists.
Nae floors.
Requiescat in pace
'RBS will leave Scotland if voters back independence'
https://tinyurl.com/y3cx9gzm
'SCOTLAND BOMBSHELL: Royal Bank to move to LONDON if Sturgeon wins independence'
https://tinyurl.com/y6atrk6n
'RBS threatens to quit Scotland if SNP wins independence as it rebrands to NatWest'
https://tinyurl.com/y3ot4k8o
'RBS ditches toxic name after nearly 300 years: Bank to be called Natwest from today'
https://tinyurl.com/y6sjertl
Give the lad credit though; he's trying.
https://twitter.com/frankfurtzack/status/1282030657062002690?s=21
On that basis Sunak leads Starmer as preferred PM 44% to 34% which is less than the 48% to 33% Johnson leads Starmer by.
That is because Johnson does better with Tory and Labour voters relative to Sunak v Starmer, Sunak only doing better than Johnson with LD voters like OGH
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-15-july/
Now Johnson is trailing Stamer on that measure by 20+%.
Belated congrats to Liverpool and their fans. Thoroughly deserved title obv.
Starmer is positioned really well to compare/contrast vs Corbyn as we're seeing now on national security. His being in the shad cabinet under Corbyn is presumably a bit of a weakness but likely not to matter.
Spurs may be winning but the 'style' is not welcome. Jose needs WHL to be left empty for it to work.
Boris is what he's always been.....
Johnson himself is still as strong independently now as he was then.
Johnson's attacks are Starmer flip flopping (when?) and Corbyn being bad. Not sure either is very effective.
Starmer has Johnson as a chancer and somebody that only looks out for himself. That can be very effective given time
https://twitter.com/youwouldknow/status/1285902398909636609?s=20
This is the powerful stuff, breaking down the idea Johnson is any different to the previous lot
It's simple logic, people get enraged about RBS, work in a RBS branch or call centre when people ring up in financial distress, say you lot get bailed out, I want a bailout.
Natwest is more benign, plus Natwest represents circa 80% of the group's trade.
Edit - RBS is still being retained for the existing branch network/cards/business.
Seriously how thick can you be?
The parallel is I think with Anthony Barber, someone initially seen as integral to the Heath government's initial popularity as expansionary policies were followed, only to be seen as the architect of the retrenchment that eventually followed. Barber wouldn't have saved the Conservatives in 1974.
If the government guides the country through COVID, through the end of transition and there is post vaccine from 2021 onwards a boom in the UK economy . . . then Boris will deserve a second majority victory and Sunak will be well placed to replace him when the Tories look for a sixth election victory in a row in 2029.
NatWest was much bigger than RBS but some it got gobbled up, and they went to make it the RBS Group.
Then he went around the market trying to buy up every takeover target in sight, with disastrous results?
Edit - Well he was there, but it was mostly down to the then CEO Sir George Matthewson.
But having said that, would you say that if I am right and you are wrong and the economy is booming by 2024 then Boris and Sunak would deserve kudos and maybe another election victory?
Philip Thompson may be right about Johnson's tenure reaching the end of the decade.
Coutts are wonderful.
Headline - 10 - another low
Last 7 days - 10
Yesterday - 3
We'd be all detesting Barclays instead of RBS today.
I'm assuming Barclays missed out because they determined ABN Amro was not worth the price that RBS valued it at when they bought it?
Of course the Tory bots here will just back Johnson even if he was literally caught f-ing a pig (haha) so there you go
Sometimes luck is actually due diligence.
*Although we could blame the Crystal Methodist for that one.
They were implying Johnson humiliated Starmer. Anyway back to work.
PM says not going back to austerity.
Chancellor says we're going back to austerity.
One of them is lying / not in possession of the facts
And then Bob Diamond refused a higher counter...??
Goodwin was an utter certin. The videos of the investor calls before and after the acquisition are toe curlingly awful.
I mean at the time people thought it was RBS who had got lucky with the deal, there was some enthusiastic backers of the deal, IIRC Alex Salmond did some cringeworthy support of the deal, although I can forgive him as he was an ex RBS employee.
His error/hubris was to persevere at the same bid price when the sector had rerated down by half.
Edit: or more to the point, the PM’s definition of austerity does not match yours. I can’t see where the Chancellor has called what he is doing austerity.
I see that Corbyn is continuing with his classic strategy -
1) When in a hole...
2) ...Borrow Bagger 288 and really go for it.
This is Bos-terity instead.
It's like Os-terity, but has a Union flag painted on it. And costs a lot more...
Jeez, if you're saying "restraint" is austerity then I hope Labour never get back in power. A lack of restraint by Brown is what made a decade of austerity necessary to recover from his largesse!
And he wasn't a MP or MSP either.
There's something in the Speccie about Scottish Independence being something Putin wants.
'Nicola Sturgeon has led condemnation of Alex Salmond, her predecessor as Scotland’s first minister, over his decision to host a chat show on a TV channel backed by the Kremlin.'
https://twitter.com/LloydAMelville/status/1285934322713874432?s=20
One wonders whether Team SKS are just displaying the standard Lab ignorance & lack of interest in matters Scotch or if they thought they'd just get the dig in anyway and hope no one notices.
Mr Forensic strikes again!
https://twitter.com/andrewlearmonth/status/1285540365869748224
...apart from Alex, who not only led the movement and the party, but shills on TV
3 deaths each for 20/7 and 19/7.
As the whole point of the deal for RBS was to buy in expertise it was a massive failure.
Difficult to know where to go to.... Barclays has history with S Africa, Lloyds is Lloyds. as I say difficult...
Starmer OTOH campaigned as a "unity" candidate rather than campaigning to vanquish Corbynism.
The leadership at the top may have slightly changed but it's the same group...