Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Spotting the Difference – what really matters to Johnson when
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Spotting the Difference – what really matters to Johnson when deciding who is in or out
The Secretary of State for Northern Ireland – has usually been seen as a hospital pass (any point during the Troubles), an internal exile for those having to earn their passage back to the mainstream (Mandelson) or somewhere to put rivals or nuisances (Francis Pym, Jim Prior). In some cases, PMs have trolled the residents of that benighted province (Shaun Woodward, Karen Bradley, for heaven’s sake!) Few have shone in the role. One who did was Julian Smith. In his time there, he managed to broker a return of the devolved government (after a three-year stalemate), helped secure agreement in the revised Withdrawal Agreement to there being no hard border between north and south and oversaw the introduction of marriage equality. Quite something for 204 days’ work. For all this he was praised by both the Irish Taisoeach and Arlene Foster and duly sacked by Boris Johnson.
Comments
Julian Lewis showed no fear...
He may be the first. He will not be the last.
TimT said:
» show previous quotes
I believe that is right, but I am worried about the prospect of opinion shifting rapidly to prioritize the economy if independents believe an effective vaccine is/will be available shortly. Put me in the category of worrywart if that helps.
Well, reckon that 78 years ago in July 1932 just after Dem National Convention, Louis Howe & Jim Farley were worried about the outlook for the general.
As they say, many a slip between the cup and the lip!
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1283814116885495810
https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1283810100818448386
If that is not true, and he was expelled merely for the defying the government with regards to a non-governmental (and in theory independent) role, then that is an extraordinary step - a degree of control-freakery that Blair and Mandelson at their peak did not aspire to.
That's why the right choice is to SLOWLY remove restrictions, so you can make sure that R is not skyrocketing again. Because if you do it quickly, then you end up with another complete lockdown, which is far worse.
Monday 16/03/2020 "Everyone should avoid gatherings with friends and family, as well as large gatherings and crowded places, such as pubs, clubs and theatres... work from home if you can" -BJ
Tuesday 17/03/2020 "We hope to keep deaths below 20,000" - Vallance; "although the measures already announced are extreme, we may need to go further and faster" (BJ) - London empties of commuters (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-51929558)
Wednesday 18/03/2020 - Gov't announces all schools to close
Friday 20/03/2020 - Gov't announces restaurants, pubs and gyms to close
Monday 23/03/2020 - "From this evening I must give the British people a very simple instruction - you must stay at home."
That was the week that was.
We area dealing with fine margins. Unfortunately for all concerned fine margins may have cost lives. But there is a lot of hindsight going on here.
Fallecidos:28.416
Fallecidos últimos 7 días: 9
Recuperados:18-05-2020150.376
Hospitalizados: 125.881 Hospitalizados últimos 7 días: 196 UCI: 11.726 UCI últimos 7 días: 17
PCR totales: 2.536.234
PCR/1000 hab: 53,8 Incremento capacidad PCR última semana: 14%
Problems n Spain although bulk of problem in Catalonia and Aragon
Another new outbreak in Alicante, this time Benidorm but limited to three cases. There is a group of holiday makers outside playing boules in the park behaving like footballers without a mask between them, selfish bastards.
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1283818014916452357
AIUI the Scottish Parliament decided to dissolve itself and merge with the Westminster Parliament with Scotland sending representatives to sit in the U.K. Parliament
Some years later, the U.K. parliament votes to create a devolved Parliament at Holyrood which has certain prescribed powers with other powers reserved to Westminster.
It does not follow that Holyrood is a recreation of the original Scottish Parliament, but it’s instead a devolved body from Westminster. Hence I don’t think that it can “just dissolve the Union”.
That’s not to saw that Scotland can’t go down UDI route if it wants to, but I don’t think it can claim to be acting within the law if it does
Sunday 12/04/2020 Lockdown eases to allow self-administered eye-tests involving driving to beauty spots.
My guess is he misled the chief whip without *quite* lying to his face
There is a vast body of evidence (not actually evidence) that lockdown had no effect at all on R and indeed everything that is happening now is a perfectly normal seasonally/latitude adjusted epidemic curve.
The cynic in me thinks it's because they know that once the home working genie is out of the bottle, it's going to be very hard to put it back in. We could all be vaccinated against COVID-19 next year and the damage will be done, in my opinion.
The problem is asymptomatic cases - if someone doesn't know they have it, and passes it on to someone who doesn't get symptoms either... nothing above the surface.
This is what happened with the resurgence in Wuhan.
The idea that it will go away and we will all return to things as before is wrong. Unless there is a vaccine.
I have to admit I do miss the office interactions with my staff.
Plus with WFH, I have a lot more distractions, like most of us with children under age of 14.
We all had an informal chat (a team of 12 of us) last week and most of us want to get back to the office when it is safe.
I think working in a city centre also has great attractions if you like shopping.
- people doing *some* personal distancing
- lockdown breaking up group meeting regularly, with people bridging between groups.
In Profumo case, government could have saved itself a LOT of grief IF they had asked the minister the right questions - and enough of them - at the critical juncture. Instead, they rushed it & muffed it.
"Well they would, wouldn't they?" - Mandy Rice Davies
Shame he hasn't resigned as MP as well.
Anyone know what story was about to break about him? There is clearly something else going on.
So there's that. But the rest is still bollocks.
https://youtu.be/1CDlBLvc3YE
https://www.indy100.com/article/boris-johnson-the-godfather-favourite-movie-scene-8991166
- a chunk of staff without proper facilities for home working. They want back to the office.
- a chunk who want to come in 1 or 2 days a week. A senior guy told me that he has people pleading with him - distance from the family :-)
- a chunk who live for Après Office - not finishing the day in the pub hurts.
All in all, I think we are looking at teams coming in 1-2 days a week. But nothing much before Christmas, currently.
https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/1283830437245341701
One thing WFH has shown up the broadband divide.
At home I have a 350 Mbps cable connection, a 72 Mbps fibre connection, and a couple of mobile phone connections of circa 20 Mbps.
One of my staff has a 5 Mbps connection which she has two share with two other people, both of whom are currently furloughed.
The Hammers get relegated because of a technology mistake involving Sheffield United and Villa.
The reaction of the dildo brothers will be hysterical.
But even if he did see the email, failure to follow an instruction is not the same as lying.
Now, if he spoke to the Chief Whip (or another member of the Whips office), and told them (or led them to believe) that he would vote for Grayling, and then reneged, then that is a serious offence (although, one would note, not one that usually results in expulsion from the party).
But if he did not, then I find his expulsion troublesome, if ultimately forgiveable.
What I find harder to accept, though, is that the government falsely claimed he lied to them. If you're going to fire someone for not actually lying, then surely heads should roll for - you know - actual lies.
His attempt to play the victim card in his resignation is, quite frankly, pathetic.
The spanners are staying up.
be seen as a good day for a party that Mr Raab has today implied was in league with Putin.
What's next?
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1283812615098007559?s=20
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1283812786997469188?s=20
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1283813034373390339?s=20
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1283813178888118272?s=20
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disgrace_of_Gijón
I’d be gutted for them.
https://twitter.com/Zarkwan/status/1283806399500296192?s=20
Poor kibble Kev, and him usually such a fan of IFS.
A slight difference of opinion between Johnson and Vallance:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53436865
I still think if the figures continue to look good, social distancing will be abandoned at the end of August and a big "let's get back to work" campaign will follow with Ministers telling us it is our "civic duty" to go back to the office.
That's when the fight will really begin.
I do remember watching a few shows on that World Cup later in my life.
I think Harald Schumacher’s assault on the French player later in the tournament still makes me wince.
https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1283833970581540865
https://twitter.com/NormOrnstein/status/1283823281867567105
TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Huawei-crackdown/TSMC-plans-to-halt-chip-supplies-to-Huawei-in-2-months
One can stretch a guiding principle too far....
Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear...
They agree with me!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-53435505/spanish-king-leads-memorial-to-victims-of-covid-19
I'd like to think the more than 60,000 dead from Covid-19 in the UK won't be forgotten in the rush to get back to desks, Pret a Manger and the pub.
Instead of just showing as lines on a graph or a spreadsheet, each individual is a tragedy and we need to remember we haven't "won" a victory over the virus. The virus has beaten us - not just the dead but those whose health has been seriously and perhaps permanently affected even if they have survived the immediate crisis.