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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New polling analysis by Peter Kellner suggests that the Tories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New polling analysis by Peter Kellner suggests that the Tories could lose power if an election was held now
The polling expert and former President of YouGov, Peter Kellner, has an article in the latest New European based on his study of the data from the last four weeks of Opinium polls. Unlike most other pollsters this firm has a range of cross tabs that make such an analysis possible. These include vote splits in the seats gained by CON from LAB at GE2019 as well on those seats gained by Johnson’s party over the last decade.
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https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jul/16/uk-says-russia-sought-to-interfere-in-2019-election-by-leaking-documents-online
PS the bit they are concerned about wont be what's covered by the Guardian article, hence why they are talking about it.
You may not like the paper who commissioned the article (if indeed they did and it wasn't offered to them directly) but that doesn't invalidate the details.
Personally I'm surprised as I don't think the red wall was liable to turn red again just yet.... I suspect the day was going to come but it would be a year or so away after unemployment appeared.
Queen Elizabeth took a royal oath to govern according to our laws and customs at her coronation. She even chose to swear an extra special oath for Scotland in 1952 before her coronation because we (the Scots) are so special as she ain't the head of our church.
So these oaths Queenie swore preserve the rights and priviledges of the Scottish Crown as endorsed at the time of Queen Anne. These rights inlcude the principles asserted since the Declaration of Arbroath that the noble and common people of Scotland believe in a single kingdom and possess the freedom to select a king who will protect these rights and priviledges.
So if she and her servant Johnson choose to break these oaths, she can just jog on tout suite.
However if Starmer came out and said he would keep free movement which he has not said specifically yet then I think that Red Wall swing would decline
Most of the other data seems to suggest that Labour has been building support by picking up low hanging fruit such as former supporters who maybe went to the Lib Dems due to the anti-semitism row. That makes more sense.
Where are these votes coming from? Are they coming from former Tories in the south? If so, then does that make the boundary review important again?
https://twitter.com/RossMcCaff/status/1283733981532508160?s=20
Is Labour ready for government?
"Con gains in Red wall" - Ready 25%, Not ready 60%.
i) Starmer is a big positive for Labour
ii) Johnson is a drag for the Tories.
iii) Sunak is miles and miles and miles ahead of Dodds, and likely ahead of Starmer too.
iv) The Tory brand/party is better than Labour still.
If Johnson gets replaced by Sunak before the next election it'll be an absolute walk in the park for the Tories.
B - rexit was the key issue.
B - oris united the Leave vote.
C - orbyn spooked Remainers into fracturing.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1283733966709821442?s=20
If you don’t have a headache and want one, try this article:
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/ecclesiastical-law-journal/article/coronation-oath/F83079759125218B8D97BA1722954CBC/core-reader
So it's an interesting analysis but I'm not sure I've seen enough to convince me to drop uniform national swing as the best available guess of the outcome.
As for your second point, I don't think that is the message, the message would be 'go and fight for an ISIS caliphate and you won't be a British citizen' - you may see that as a negative message, but I am not sure how many would agree.
Labour is ahead 53% to 29% in London and 49% to 44% in the North
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/ai16ajr8zo/TheTimes_VI_200709_V2_W.pdf
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1283734264564023296?s=20
Headline - 19 - lowest weekday since March
Seven days - 17
Yesterday - 3
As ever, the last 3-5 days are subject to revision. Last 5 days are included for completeness.
That must have been fun - assuming they briefed the right one.....
* I don't know whether they should be worried, but they clearly are.
eg I am sure China and Russia have hijacked the BLM cause, on both sides, via social media, to sow racial discord in the US (and elsewhere). It's an obvious move, exploiting the weakness of an enemy - in this case America's poisonous racial divide, and legacy of liberal guilt.
Highly effective.
You can actually see it happening in real time. Recently created accounts (with names like Wotsit79203859) randomly appear and stoke-up arguments on Twitter, making them go viral.
I can't remember, did you end up voting for someone else in the GE or did you come to some grubby personal accommodation?
Interesting mention of this exact technique in that Standard article:
"But when they [leaks online of trade talks] did not gain traction, Russian “actors” are then said to have sought to push them on Twitter posts, blogs, and single-use burner accounts on social media."
The phase 3 studies are what we need, as well as aftermarket surveillance, which is the way rarer side effects get picked up.
Boris Johnson represents the Conservative Party.
In the same terms it is no stretch to say that Laura Kuenssberg represents the BBC (or does she append a "these views do not represent..." line in her tweets?)
And as for who I voted for, I voted happily for the Conservatives, given the choice I was presented with.
We are an algorithm!
A curious insight.
And the answer to your concern was provided by @OnlyLivingBoy who said she should and perhaps would have been sent on a deradicalisation programme so she could stop doing all those nasty things.
A computer which itself does not exist, outside the mind of a Chinese teenager.
Time for Lawrence.
"Was there a point when you started to have second thoughts about your life under Islamic State? Only at the end, after my son died. I realised I had to get out for the sake of my children - for the sake of my daughter and my baby. Yeah.
Only at the end? Yeah.
You didn't have any regrets up until that point? No.
What was it about Islamic State that attracted you? What did you like about it? The way they showed that you can go [to Syria] and they'll take care of you. You can have your own family, do anything. You're living under Islamic law.
Did you know what Islamic State were doing when you left for Syria? Because they had beheaded people. There were executions. Yeah, I knew about those things and I was okay with it. Because, you know, I started becoming religious just before I left. From what I heard, Islamically that is all allowed. So I was okay with it.
You didn't question that? No, not at all."
"The head of the intelligence services in the UK says people like you are potentially very dangerous. What would you say to him? They don't have any evidence against me doing anything dangerous."
"Do you feel that you have made a mistake? When you look back at what you've been through over the last four years, do you feel like you've made a mistake? A mistake in going to al-Dawla?
Yes, a mistake in coming here, living under Islamic State. In a way, yes, but I don't regret it because it's changed me as a person. It's made me stronger, tougher. I married my husband. I wouldn't have found someone like him back in the UK. I had my kids. I did have a good time there, it's just that at the end things got harder and I couldn't take it anymore. I had to leave."
To my mind, she should have been tried by the Syrians, in Syria, as that's where she did her *alleged* crimes, and it is the Syrians who suffered, not us.
https://twitter.com/CovidLeics/status/1283465193029357568?s=09
Cases very much focused in certain neighbourhoods and quite low positivity rates.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1283703347049095170?s=20
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1283703351675359233?s=20
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1283703355139928065?s=20
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1283703357962682370?s=20
If she is released or acquitted on the grounds of being a sweet, innocent little thing, so cruelly groomed against her will, the government will never hear the last of it.
Don't worry, no need to panic until 2024, when it might be brutal, after post Covid economic armageddon.
Trying to throw the problem at Bangladesh was neither fair or moral..
https://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/watch/more-troubling-poll-results-for-president-trump-87801413571
See how that works? The child was radicalised, and, from your post, may remain radicalised, and hence everything she says is all part of the deal of radicalisation. As a child. And she was, as I understand it, rendered stateless by the Home Secretary which is the basis of the challenge.
Is it any clearer now? Please don't hesitate to ask if so. You know the only stupid question is an unasked one.
In not particularly nuanced Divvie world, I'm happy to distinguish between criticism of BJ, criticism of the government of all the pricks which he heads, the Conservative party and Conservatives in general. Mental, eh?!
EU court ruling strikes blow to transatlantic data flows
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/16/eu-court-us-surveillance-data-privacy-365796
...Europe's top court handed down a searing verdict on U.S. surveillance powers on Thursday, ruling for the second time that EU data would not be safe from snooping under a transatlantic data protection deal.
The ruling, which cancels the Privacy Shield agreement, throws billions of dollars in digital trade into legal limbo and reignites a spat over surveillance that dates back more than five years to U.S. whistleblower Edward Snowden's revelations about American spying....
We will probably have to jump one way or the other ?
Yet we still held, and would hold, Hitler responsible for the crimes he committed as an adult.
Why is Begum different? We are all formed by positive or negative influences in childhood.
Er, no, not "mental".
Laura represents the BBC as Boris represents the Conservative Party. I'm happy to go with that. There's probably a porter at the BBC who disagrees with Laura and there's me who disagrees with a lot of what Boris says. But I have no problem with you putting me in the basket of Conservatives that Boris represents.
Very good information - good catch
Looks like the authorities went in heavy, and quite early in the spike. The map seems to explain the wide area of the lockdown.
On a practical note, I wonder if she could ever lead a "normal" life in Britain, anyway. She is notorious and reviled. Her face is widely known. She'd basically have to change her identity and live in hiding. Miserable.
She;d be better off making a life in a Muslim country, if she could find one to take her in.
What's your plan?
Are we really having this discussion again? The only thing we can do to combat Islamic extremism is to illustrate that our way of life, our morals, our philosophy is one which is superior to theirs.
Very frustrating for people who just want to blast away, literally, at the problem, but that ain't how this problem is going to be solved.
More Labour voters prefer Boris to Starmer than prefer Sunak to Starmer, only LD voters prefer Sunak to Starmer by more than they prefer Boris to Starmer
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-uk-voting-intention-8-july/
Many others of a similar background got drum-head court martials.
She has been granted leave to appeal against the decision to strip her of her citizenship, which, I'm sure it will be argued, leaves her stateless.
I have been told human rights enthusiasts, that that is "not ethical". Not sure why?
https://www.institutkurde.org/info/a-10-minute-trial-a-death-sentence-iraqi-justice-for-isis-suspects-1232551366
This is not seriously disputed.