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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How in just three months Starmer has changed the political wea
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How in just three months Starmer has changed the political weather
I am a great fan of the Opinium weekly poll for the Observer. The firm gets its full datasets out at the same time as when the poll is published on a Saturday evening and it has a series of questions in every survey that are always asked with the result that we can compare changes over time.
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I said that if the government wants to do something and the Civil Service says it is illegal then it should say so and that it would take an Act of Parliament to change the law.
If the government doesn't want to change the law then that is its prerogative and it is a no. If the government is prepared to change the law though, then that is also its prerogative subject to Parliament agreeing to do so - and if the law is changed the act is no longer illegal.
You tried that bollocks on the last thread. Did you really need to repeat it here?
Because quite often the argument was made that something was illegal under EU law and the government has no power over EU law. The government does have power over UK law. Once we have Brexited international law will be quite narrow in scope as it should be.
Again the argument was that the Civil Service "often" has to say "no". How "often" do you think the government seeks to break international laws?
Why wasn't that on the side of a bus?
He needs to think of ideas and plans but he is right to focus on sorting out the stains on Labour's reputation first. I think its interesting that Ed Miliband is back in a more prominent role. He was a poor leader and a terrible Minister but he was always a good ideas man who could write a coherent proposal.
The Tories will need to up their game. That is what a good opposition gives to the country. We've missed it.
Francois Fillon jailed for 5 years 3 of which are suspended for the fake job scandal involving his wife.
Betfair last matched prices for GOP nominee, moves since yesterday lunchtime:
Trump 1.09 to 1.13
Pence 15 to 18
Haley 70 to 27
Romney 140 to 100
Ryan - flat at 240
Cruz - 310 to 300
If a vacancy were to arise, Haley would be a sensible pick against Biden.
The question “Is it legal for me to do this today?” requires a yes or no answer. Postponing an action may also be unlawful in some circumstances.
Ministers who ignore the law get themselves into terrible trouble. Generally they try to avoid this. But in a government headed by a man who thinks the rules should not apply to him they get away with it.
Why anyone should think this a good thing beats me. It is another degrading of good government in this country. We will all be worse off if this continues.
https://journalistinajumpsuit.com/2011/03/14/tess-daly-in-maxmara/
Headline - 19 - lowest, even for a Monday since March
7 days - 17
Yesterday - 6
As ever, the last 3-5 days are subject to heavy revision later, due to reporting delays and are included only for completeness.
"There's a large leisure and tourism industry absolutely desperate for business in Scotland. Many Brits are looking at what is now called a staycation (which used to be just staying at home) holidaying in the UK. There is a chance here to save tens of thousands of jobs in areas like the Highlands with little else.
And not being satisfied with giving their competitors in the Lake District or the South West a two week start we have this kind of crap? It's just infuriating. Economic vandalism is too kind a description."
*****
I know quite a few hoteliers, restaurateurs, and the like in Scotland, esp the Highlands and Islands.
I was planning a professional trip to Skye this summer as lockdown eases, but the locals are adamant that no one must come to Skye, for many months, to keep the virus out. They're not especially keen on Glaswegians, let alone the English. And they really mean it, they won't cooperate. Or so I am told.
All the people employed directly in tourism are tearing their hair out, they know how much tourism means to the Skye economy: it is hugely important. Without it, Skye basically goes bust.
I guess when furlough ends and the jobs go with it, that might focus minds.
All the movement since GE19 has been LD to Labour and while there is a possibility the Tories could lose their majority at the next general election, they would still have more seats than Labour, the SNP and LDs combined
https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1276959345268469761?s=20
Quite the opposite if I'm suggesting the law getting changed as an option.
Should we be changing John Lennon airport back to Speke Airport if changes of names are inappropriate?
Why this should be controversial I don’t know but with some of this government’s supporters it is. Apparently.
On Jenrick, according to reports, he was advised not to proceed with the decision. He ignored that which is why he had to later accept that his decision was unlawful and agree that it should be quashed.
From what I know of tourism in Ireland there is massive demand for holiday cottages - in which people can get away from the city but still isolate themselves from most other people.
I don't know about hotels. Not sure it would be so relaxing to be necessarily around so many potential virus vectors.
We all laughed at the airbnb rentals that were desperate to find long-term lets earlier in the year - but I think they have a big advantage over hotels and B&Bs in the present circumstances. They add a lot less to the local economy than hotels.
I said they should not be "often" saying no. If no is the default rather than a more complicated response then that is a problem. There may be times when no is appropriate but they should be relatively few and far between not very often.
However to be fair to him politicians have done much worse than he did and stayed out of jail
So they want to keep it that way and to tell everyone to stay east of Exmoor.
However, they also reluctantly realise they will be eating grass if the tourism industry dies. So they are grudgingly accepting the reality that travel must happen and people will come, they have the advantage that Boris is allowing it.
This is what we are talking about wrt the civil service.
- he's done nothing on policy, so there's not much for Boris and allies to attack
- some, perhaps most, of the government's wounds are self-inflicted, and he can't rely on that continuing
- he'll run into the law of diminishing returns at some point. Maybe he has already. June was not a successful month for the government, but his lead over Boris barely moved
- -2 is not a huge deficit, by any stretch of the imagination.
- he's got four more years to go. Anyone can become stale in that time.
If the civil service is often saying no then it is deciding.
Advising against, the classic Sir Humphrey "that would be brave, minister" is not saying "no" even if its code for recommending it.
Navarro also claims there might be "economic winter of discontent" if Dems win
I agree that he was a poor leader. So much triangulation - the immigration mug was the emblem of this, but also on the economy - giving the impression that he had no principles, which I don't think is true. But what makes you say that he was a terrible minister?
Bojo looks completely returned to his old self. Relaxed, witty, healthy, a sparkle in the eye: entirely healthy and rested (especially rested, given that he is the 56 year old dad of a newborn)
This fits with the profile of Covid sufferers. It hits you for quite a while - but you nearly always DO get better in the end.
https://twitter.com/timesradio/status/1277522387844632576?s=20
The reduction in pressure on him may be a factor.
Is it me or has his voice changed (for the better) too?
Since those later actions might need to be of a different character to any previously successful actions (e.g. developing new policy within a coherent framework that can be sold with a simple slogan compared to not being Corbyn and having an eye for detail) then previous success is not necessarily a good guide to the future.
But he has started well on what is a big job.
MOTS required again from August
It's been notably absent of late, to the extent I wondered if it would ever return and he might retire very soon.
Not any more. A revivified Boris with 4 clear years of power will be a delightful sight to behold
But he has some interesting ideas, as the government has shown by pinching several of them!
Remarkable statistic - when you account for off-shored energy our emissions went up not down under Labour.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-81125296.html
They will be adamant that the Tamar must be fortified and NO ONE allowed in. And yet that area is full of pubs, hotels, sports clubs, renters of kayaks and paddleboards, artisanal pasty makers, all staffed by working class Cornish and they will be DESPERATE for the tourists to come.
Quite a division.
Notwithstanding the necessity of working out a smart form of semi-lockdown, which will be our way of life for the medium term.
There may be fun and games involving the GOP's Standing Committee on Rules and its Rules Committee. As I understand it, all ~2000 delegates have a vote on the nomination, but only those ~300 who are physically present in Charlotte will have a vote on other matters.
The effort that the Lincoln Project is putting into its work suggests there is time for the GOP to stop Trump one way or another.
The last matched price for Romney for the nomination is now 55.
We are free to disagree, but I am entirely right.
As the cranky mob hate this, it must mean it's a great thing to have said