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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The next out of the cabinet betting
Ladbrokes have finally put up their next out of the cabinet market and to be honest there’s no value in backing Robert Jenrick. It truly is shameful how shameless Robert Jenrick and the Prime Minister are over this scandal. If Robert Jenrick was a humble councillor he’d had been forced out and facing much worse.
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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/06/27/sir-mark-sedwill-pm-oust-uks-senior-civil-servant-whitehall/
If you’re looking for a longer-odds tip, I like the look of Andrew Wilson at 33/1. An outstanding personality within the independence movement, the former MSP is (unusually for SNP figures) widely respected and admired throughout the Scottish establishment: business, finance sector, media, academia, civil society and even among the other political parties. But the key problem is that I am not aware that he is even standing next year? If he doesn’t, it’s very hard to see how he can build his internal base sufficiently in time to replace Sturgeon.
Looking at the top Unionist candidates, Richard Leonard (SLab) has shortened to 16/1, presumably on the back of the Starmer effect? But Leonard himself is universally regarded as a figure of ridicule, not least within his own party; and the SLD’s wouldn’t touch him with a bargepole. Jackson Carlaw (SCon) remains 25/1. That is way too short. The Scottish Labour and Liberal Democrat parties would implode if their leaderships ever tried to install the hapless Tory as first minister. Carlaw would be poor value at 50/1. Not quite sure why Shadsy is still listing Ruth Davidson at 20/1, shorter than her successor? She is retiring from parliament next year.
If a week is a long time in politics, a year......?
https://twitter.com/JohnnyDundee/status/1277025744409985025?s=20
I wonder if she's looked at the post Covid 'celebrity politician with a bit of political lobbying' landscape and decided it's a bit bleak?
Nice to see the mighty Ruth defending Boris’ useless floppy arse. Quite literally.
What do you make of this, @Foxy ?
(If nothing else, I learned a new word...)
Coronaviruses Induce Entry-Independent, Continuous Macropinocytosis
https://mbio.asm.org/content/5/4/e01340-14
... Macropinocytosis can occur in polarized cells (42) and could represent a novel mechanism of virus cell-to-cell spreading over tight junctions within airway epithelium. Viral spreading in this manner has several advantages over viral spreading via exocytosis, specifically, immune evasion, concentration of reagents, speed, and the capacity to circumvent physical barriers. Increasing the size and duration of plasma membrane extensions could increase opportunities for interactions with adjacent or distant cells.
Our results also show that expression of cleaved, fusogenic spike protein on the cell surface is necessary to induce macropinocytosis, whether by furin-mediated cleavage in the cell or by exogenous cleavage by trypsin on the cell surface. Induction of macropinocytosis also requires EGFR activation and signaling through the known macropinocytosis cellular pathway. On the basis of our results, we propose a model in which fusogenic spike protein on the plasma membrane results in EGFR activation, leading to a signaling cascade that manifests as increased membrane ruffling and filopodium formation to facilitate cell-cell fusion and virus spread....
https://www.salon.com/2020/06/27/democrats-will-hold-a-virtual-convention-republicans-wont-the-cruelty-is-just-too-obvious/
The winner of the Next First Minister market depends largely on when Sturgeon decides to go.
There is of course the issue of what Ladbrokes and other bookies would do if the job title changes. That could be pre- or post-independence, or in conjunction with it. The office of First Minister of Norway was changed to Prime Minister of Norway 27 years prior to their successful independence referendum in 1905. On the other hand, even when independent, Scots could decide to keep the name of the office as First Minister, which has the advantage of familiarity. The job title is far less important than the substantive powers.
As for the market, I’m guessing we’ll be getting an autumn reshuffle so probably a dead heat with value on the current outsiders. Jenrick seems to have convinced the PM for now, so unless there’s more to the story we don’t know yet, he’s probably safe. Johnson seems to be following the Cameron approach of avoiding losing anyone if he can help it.
Never apologise. Never explain. Never admit you were wrong. Fuck the plebs.
‘I’m Tired of Being the Help’
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/06/24/letter-to-washington-grosse-pointe-woods-325641
In suburban Detroit, a cookout full of Democratic voters bubbles into outrage, frustration at being taken for granted—and certainty that 2020 is in the bag for Trump.
Or to put it another way, do you really think Boris Johnson or even Keir Starmer will be willing to put forward and pass legislation that would change the statutory office of First Minister established under Section 44 of the Scotland Act 1998, that would further the SNP narrative they both reject?
"Donald Trump knows he's losing."
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/27/trump-losing-2020-election-342326
Agree about the market, and much as Williamson deserves the boot, it’s unclear that he’ll get it. If Johnson gave a damn, he wouldn’t have appointed him in the first place.
Ho ho.
I’m a big fan of the Johnson/Starmer Jock-bashing axis: they have both decided to simply keep building the dam higher and higher, as the weight of water behind the crumbling, ill-designed structure just keeps getting greater and greater. Tony Blair was no structural engineer, and his blueprint to “kill nationalism stone dead” has so enraged British Nationalists that they have set themselves on an irreversible course to destroying the thing they claim to love.
If so, I fear I have some disappointing news from 2014 for you.
Politically, perhaps.
Where would that leave him, or Cummings, or Raab?
Emotionally: no.
Technically: kind of.
Try not to confuse wishful thinking from the safe(ish) distance of Sweden with reality.
Personally, I’d prefer zero polling on this topic. The shock when the reality hits home as the dam collapses...
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/motor-sport/event/28778956/multi-market?marketIds=1.170627277
Lots of unknowns, but Valtteri at 8 looks like the value in the win market.
https://twitter.com/lloyd_rm/status/1277135883813163010
(Though Hamilton has form in being quick straight away, and given the long lay-off should be the overwhelming favourite.)
The problem for Scottish independence is that while its supporters are becoming more strident the actual issues have, if anything, moved the fundamentals against them.
In 2014 there were serious doubts as to whether Scotland could remain in the EU, which was vital to the economic case for independence. Now, we know it wouldn’t be in the EU and would have to apply under article 49, a long process.
In 2014, there was a strong government with substantial Scottish representation in Westminster, which had worked effectively with the SNP to deliver a referendum that everyone agrees was free, fair and democratic, although some quibbles about the franchise and its extent remain. It was a government that could be expected to negotiate a divorce on a reasonable basis, in good faith. Now, we have a factional, divisive and populist English dominated government led by an unstable liar whose skills in negotiations are zero, and because of that, would not negotiate at all. His response would be, ‘independence? Fine. Sod off. Enjoy the border checks at Gretna.’
The oil price is on the floor and may never recover fully.
The pound, leaving aside its own serious issues, is being debased to support the government of the UK, and the Euro continues to be a mess, so the currency situation would still be unclear.
The SNP itself is divided and the Salmond saga is far from over. It may bring down Sturgeon. More likely it simply becomes a festering sore that taints a government noted for its patriotism but not for its executive ability.
Does that mean a referendum on independence would vote no again? Well, no, not for certain. Often these things are about emotion rather than reason (Brexit and perhaps more pertinently, the Irish Free State wave hello). And the mere fact the UK government is so unpopular in Scotland in itself does probably have an impact.
But there is no sign of a shift from 45-55 to the 60-40 that would probably be needed to call a referendum in the expectation of winning it. I strongly suspect, indeed, that if Sturgeon had thought May or Johnson would have granted her a referendum she wouldn’t have called for one, as a second ‘No’ really would kill independence and possibly the SNP stone dead.
Personally, I wonder if this all isn’t irrelevant anyway, as I think the age of the nation state (and there I include the EU) may be drawing to an end for other reasons. But I personally would be surprised if Scotland were to become independent in the next ten years. Not shocked, not dying of a heart attack, but surprised.
What are the odds of Homo sapiens still being around in a million years? Worse than 1000/1 against?
In a hundred years? 1/10 on?
In ten years 1/100?
(*There is of course the possibility that the next top predator also writes history, where footnotes might exist.)
‘Done,’ said the pilot,
‘Why were you so quick to accept?’ asked the observer.
‘Well, if we come back, you pay up. But if we’re killed, I won’t have to!’
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1277148722871271424?s=19
Very weird to start the season not knowing how many races there will be, nor when they’ll take place. 8 races scheduled so far, which if they all happen is the minimum required for a valid championship. Next target is 15, which is the minimum in the media rights and sponsorship contracts with F1 and costs them huge refunds if they go below. At the moment the Americas look like a no-go, so it’s going to be as many places as they can find in Europe until the weather turns in autumn, then maybe a couple in Asia and finish in the Middle East in December. Maybe even with crowds allowed by the end of the year (he says optimisticly, clutching a pair of tickets to the final race in Abu Dhabi).
Not bet yet. Might give them another look.
Edited extra bit: no idea why it takes so long for the other markets to expand after clicking... bit tedious.
Are bookies’ shops open in the U.K. yet?
“Bionic sapiens types”. Glad I won’t be around.
Three scenarios:
The left have decided to play by centrist rules for now and keep their positions.
This bloke has a strongly developed sense of irony.
He has grown up, changed his mind and decided to join the normal people. (Possible but unlikely.)
AFAIC he is one of the people who has to go if Labour is to become a party a Tory voter can vote for.
https://www.racingpost.com/news/betting-shops-set-to-reopen-in-scotland-with-restricted-service-on-monday-week/438516
Not backing anything just now, but the ones that look most interesting to me are Albon podium 34, and Sainz top 6 at 3.25.
Odd season, though. Even the mood music of testing is now pretty much worthless.
I’m vain enough to be preening that you think it my ‘one weakness’ though.
(PS, I never read the Times. My newspaper of choice is the Guardian. No political reasons, I’m just a cheapskate.)
Are 100% of people on the electoral roles of England English?
Ill-informed piffle.
Better Together lied. Yes Scotland told the truth. Other Europeans like us.
“everyone agrees”: er. “Now, we have a factional, divisive and populist English dominated government led by an unstable liar whose skills in negotiations are zero, and because of that, would not negotiate at all. His response would be, ‘independence? Fine.”: no comment needed.
Agreed. And?
Agreed. And your only valid point.
More ill-informed piffle. Yawn.
“probably” have an impact!?! Do you know anything about Scots and our culture?
Stop reading the Daily Express. It rots the brain.
States dying? Have you heard of China, Russia or the USA? They are places abroad.
I have just had a 'wee chuckle' when I read your entirely predictable response to Ydoethur's intelligent and well stated argument as it reminds me of Scots Nats of 70 years ago expressing themselves in a very similar manner and it got them nowhere
Someday, the SNP may need to make their case in a serious debate and answer all the questions posed by Ydoethur and others, before even standing a chance of winning the argument and seeing the erection of a border crossing from Berwick to Carlisle
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53207700
If and when another referendum is held serious questions will require serious answers, not insults and hyperbole
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1277147964176244737
No threat to BoZo or Cummings