Economy definitely bouncing back. It feels better already. Just need Boris to man up a d reduce the distancing to 1m and open up the pubs.
Premature cheery optimism this early in the morning. You must be Boris Johnson!
No, just some data we got in this morning on order book values. It's much more positive than it was last month, plus just a sense that people are more confident than they were last month.
Whatever floats your boat. But I predict choppy seas ahead.
Fake news once you take into account "debt" to the Bank of England the reality is very different.
That entire months borrowing was paid for by the BoE yesterday.
Weird how we can suddenly lend money to ourselves after so long being told it was impossible and we would be saddling our grandchildren with debt. Tory economics folks
Good try but pandemic economics is the correct response
Economy definitely bouncing back. It feels better already. Just need Boris to man up a d reduce the distancing to 1m and open up the pubs.
Are you being serious?
The economy won't bounce back for years, wait until the furlough finishes and people realise that tourism, hospitality, sport and leisure are decimated.
Well they aren't going to start to improve if this buffoon doesn't allow the pubs, bars and restaurants to open anytime soon.
The way this govt has handled this pandemic has been shockingly bad.
Correct but that's only a part of it. Cinemas, theatres, hotels, football grounds etc etc.
Anybody saying the economy is bouncing back is deluded
Yes, bouncing back is far too optimistic.
It is certainly getting a little better but these are small steps from a catastrophic slump. We don't know what form the recovery will take. Either a V or a Tick, or it may not recover.
far too early to say.
Where the recovery takes place is also important.
Now if its mostly in outer suburbs, commuter towns and rural areas rather than big urban areas that has a political effect.
It may well be that the shake up the service sector might get in the 2020s will mostly hit Labour voting areas in the same way that the shake up manufacturing received in the 1980s mostly hit the then Labour voting areas.
But a major media platform should not be preventing one of two serious candidates in an election from advertising as they see fit. Provided the ads are legal and within the electoral rules they should be permitted.
Otherwise - at best - You create a narrative of “he would have won but”
All major media platforms spouted non-stop Better Together propaganda during the 6 months leading up to the independence referendum in 2014.
Scotland would have won but for that.
Scottish independence wasn't torpedoed by the dastardly MSM, it was undone by money - primarily the Barnett subsidy, and secondarily the lack of a convincing plan for what currency Scotland was going to use. Your floating voters broke for No because they thought independence would hit them hard in their wallets (possibly through major cuts to public services, so that goodies like free prescriptions, university tuition fees and elderly social care would have to go; more likely through hefty tax rises.)
There are some committed Unionists out there, but I'm convinced that the main thing holding the UK together now is cash. If Scotland were a net contributor to the UK Treasury, rather than a net beneficiary of it, then the 2014 vote would probably have gone the other way.
I don't like it but I accept that's probably true.
You could argue of course that is what led to the creation of the Union in the first place.
Yes I fear you are right. If people see a practical benefit to maintaining it I'll take it, but i think the point about truly committed unionists is right. It's why i think it's a question of time for indy. They just want it more, so can make a better case .
De Gaulle was a deeply flawed individual, who made many mistakes, but like Churchill rose to the occasion when needed. Neither was a saint by any means, but both deserve garlands for what they did in the war, as well as the brickbats for some of their other actions.
Just as well we never fell into the hands of a flawed individual who buggered it up when the occasion came along, then.
Has anybody ever met an individual who isn't flawed?
Economy definitely bouncing back. It feels better already. Just need Boris to man up a d reduce the distancing to 1m and open up the pubs.
Premature cheery optimism this early in the morning. You must be Boris Johnson!
Retail up 12% in May on April
June will be interesting since easing in England and more shops opening in Scotland and Wales next week.
On my first venture out of 12 weeks lockdown yesterday to B & Q I was impressed how organised it was and there did seem to be as many shoppers as normal times
The troops are demob happy, keen to spend Rishi's windfall.
If Boris and his pals can prevent economic armageddon, you are right, the guys is a genius.
The mad lefties can stop blaming Starmer for the defeat now.
The truth is, we should never have allowed a GE.
Very true. Johnson's election will perhaps serve you well. Corbyn has been ejected, his henchmen (and women) are dropping like flies. And with the benefit of six months of hindsight this might have been a election not to win.
The flip side to this is Johnson has almost four years to turn it around.
If a Labour minority Government somehow had been formed, I think it would have collapsed due to Coronavirus and we'd be shortly having a Tory majority Government elected again anyway.
Labour actually needs to spend a period in opposition getting ready for Government instead of just talking to itself. At least the current leadership seems to actually look at the polls as opposed to ignoring them and hoping it will turn around like the last one.
The report is spot on, we treated 2017 like a victory when we should have treated it like a loss. Corbyn should have stepped down in 2017, 2018, or 2019 (the latter I did originally call for but I accept I didn't stick with it) and Starmer should have taken over. Starmer vs May would have lead to a Labour minority Government and Brexit being stopped without any GE.
Labour made so many mistakes, mistake after mistake. And that can only be put down to a leadership that really had no idea about how to strategise.
Went to IKEA in Gateshead yesterday for home office stuff. Has to be said that they have done a great job configuring their business for the virus. One Way system already in place of course, but regular sanitiser stations set out, team computer stations protected by plastic shields, restaurant open for staff feeding only (and otherwise screened off by more stuff for sale).
If as suggested the government is going to change the 2m distancing it does know this is going to cost business and industry £lots doesn't it? All the signs, markers, decals etc etc will need replacing. Surely - given that we're not getting the virus down fast enough and don't have track and trace in place as the PM himself set out that we MUST do - he can't be desperate enough to go "ah spaff it" and just arbitrarily change the thing anyway?
Yes, of course he is. But just as with the schools I don't think he will take most of the population with him. Despite the froth and the attacks on teachers it is PARENTS who aren't prepared to send their kids back yet. If we suddenly decide "its fine, go back to normal" I can't see everyone shrugging their shoulders and doing so. Not when "the virus is under control go back to normal" is ravaging the dumber states in America and UK remains banned from international travel because we still have the pox.
Fake news once you take into account "debt" to the Bank of England the reality is very different.
That entire months borrowing was paid for by the BoE yesterday.
Weird how we can suddenly lend money to ourselves after so long being told it was impossible and we would be saddling our grandchildren with debt. Tory economics folks
Good try but pandemic economics is the correct response
And yet I'm sure it was the wrong response post 2008 as the Tories have insisted for 12 years
De Gaulle was a deeply flawed individual, who made many mistakes, but like Churchill rose to the occasion when needed. Neither was a saint by any means, but both deserve garlands for what they did in the war, as well as the brickbats for some of their other actions.
Just as well we never fell into the hands of a flawed individual who buggered it up when the occasion came along, then.
Has anybody ever met an individual who isn't flawed?
Economy definitely bouncing back. It feels better already. Just need Boris to man up a d reduce the distancing to 1m and open up the pubs.
Premature cheery optimism this early in the morning. You must be Boris Johnson!
Retail up 12% in May on April
June will be interesting since easing in England and more shops opening in Scotland and Wales next week.
On my first venture out of 12 weeks lockdown yesterday to B & Q I was impressed how organised it was and there did seem to be as many shoppers as normal times
The troops are demob happy, keen to spend Rishi's windfall.
If Boris and his pals can prevent economic armageddon, you are right, the guys is a genius.
Went to IKEA in Gateshead yesterday for home office stuff. Has to be said that they have done a great job configuring their business for the virus. One Way system already in place of course, but regular sanitiser stations set out, team computer stations protected by plastic shields, restaurant open for staff feeding only (and otherwise screened off by more stuff for sale).
If as suggested the government is going to change the 2m distancing it does know this is going to cost business and industry £lots doesn't it? All the signs, markers, decals etc etc will need replacing. Surely - given that we're not getting the virus down fast enough and don't have track and trace in place as the PM himself set out that we MUST do - he can't be desperate enough to go "ah spaff it" and just arbitrarily change the thing anyway?
Yes, of course he is. But just as with the schools I don't think he will take most of the population with him. Despite the froth and the attacks on teachers it is PARENTS who aren't prepared to send their kids back yet. If we suddenly decide "its fine, go back to normal" I can't see everyone shrugging their shoulders and doing so. Not when "the virus is under control go back to normal" is ravaging the dumber states in America and UK remains banned from international travel because we still have the pox.
Lol, the cost of a few signs and a bit of tape vs doubling customer capacity. I wonder what they will pick.
The GDP quarterly growth record (since 1955) for the UK was 5% in Q1 1973. If there isn't a second wave by September then you'd expect Q3 to beat that after the record in the other direction in Q2.
So, yes, a massive bounce back, but with so far fallen we need to do more than set a new quarterly record.
So the Lib Dem approach is to full leftie and compete with Labour.
They need to win Tory seats, why do they not get this
A lot of them since the demise of the coalition have preferred labour lite. Plus many cut their teeth in areas where the tories are the opponents so its easy to trend as far from them as possible.
Went to IKEA in Gateshead yesterday for home office stuff. Has to be said that they have done a great job configuring their business for the virus. One Way system already in place of course, but regular sanitiser stations set out, team computer stations protected by plastic shields, restaurant open for staff feeding only (and otherwise screened off by more stuff for sale).
If as suggested the government is going to change the 2m distancing it does know this is going to cost business and industry £lots doesn't it? All the signs, markers, decals etc etc will need replacing. Surely - given that we're not getting the virus down fast enough and don't have track and trace in place as the PM himself set out that we MUST do - he can't be desperate enough to go "ah spaff it" and just arbitrarily change the thing anyway?
Yes, of course he is. But just as with the schools I don't think he will take most of the population with him. Despite the froth and the attacks on teachers it is PARENTS who aren't prepared to send their kids back yet. If we suddenly decide "its fine, go back to normal" I can't see everyone shrugging their shoulders and doing so. Not when "the virus is under control go back to normal" is ravaging the dumber states in America and UK remains banned from international travel because we still have the pox.
Reducing to 1m would only require lines in the middle of some, not all, the 2m gaps.
If that change was too onerous for a business they could keep their own buildings at 2m.
Economy definitely bouncing back. It feels better already. Just need Boris to man up a d reduce the distancing to 1m and open up the pubs.
Premature cheery optimism this early in the morning. You must be Boris Johnson!
Retail up 12% in May on April
June will be interesting since easing in England and more shops opening in Scotland and Wales next week.
On my first venture out of 12 weeks lockdown yesterday to B & Q I was impressed how organised it was and there did seem to be as many shoppers as normal times
The troops are demob happy, keen to spend Rishi's windfall.
If Boris and his pals can prevent economic armageddon, you are right, the guys is a genius.
We have to remember many people are better off with lockdown and WFH together with thousands receiving holiday refunds or holding back on booking holidays that once the hotel and leisure industries are released, together with the idiotic 5 mile driving restrictions in Scotland and Wales a lot of this pent up demand will flow back into the economy
Non of this will heal the damage but it should mitigate it
Looking slightly further ahead than the Independence (from the Rona) Day weekend changes, what do people expect for holidays this year? Whilst the travel industry is screaming at the government to drop its quarantine I see no signs this will be reciprocated if we do. The UK has already spread the pox back into New Zealand, we're still a country mile more infected than most EU countries and if you are Greece or Spain or other major destinations I'd be surprised to see them risk the massive economic impact of another outbreak to take the money from the usual lager-fuelled wazzocks that consist of smo many ENglish abroad holidays in the Med.
Which gives us the UK. Well, England. Scotland says we can't come. Wales says we can't comeNI says we can late July maybe. So Skeggy is an option. Or go to Ulster and visit the beautiful Antrim coast. But further afield? We get to sit this one out, listening to tossers lie about the track and trace app we needed to reopen whilst foreigners we believe to be beneath us enjoy holidays. That is the point when the government really gets unpopular...
Fake news once you take into account "debt" to the Bank of England the reality is very different.
That entire months borrowing was paid for by the BoE yesterday.
Weird how we can suddenly lend money to ourselves after so long being told it was impossible and we would be saddling our grandchildren with debt. Tory economics folks
Good try but pandemic economics is the correct response
And yet I'm sure it was the wrong response post 2008 as the Tories have insisted for 12 years
Fake news once you take into account "debt" to the Bank of England the reality is very different.
That entire months borrowing was paid for by the BoE yesterday.
Weird how we can suddenly lend money to ourselves after so long being told it was impossible and we would be saddling our grandchildren with debt. Tory economics folks
Good try but pandemic economics is the correct response
And yet I'm sure it was the wrong response post 2008 as the Tories have insisted for 12 years
Undertaking countercyclical fiscal policy is one of those irregular verbs. I support the economy in the wake of a global economic shock. You trash the public finances and leave the country saddled with debt. The tragedy is that Labour are probably too honest to play this game like the Tories did in 2010.
The GDP quarterly growth record (since 1955) for the UK was 5% in Q1 1973. If there isn't a second wave by September then you'd expect Q3 to beat that after the record in the other direction in Q2.
So, yes, a massive bounce back, but with so far fallen we need to do more than set a new quarterly record.
I agree. Q3 is going to be more than a dead cat bounce though, unless there's a second national lockdown. But that would be so like shooting yourself in the head I can't believe any government would do it unless the numbers are dire.
The mad lefties can stop blaming Starmer for the defeat now.
The truth is, we should never have allowed a GE.
Well duh. Same issue with Jo Icarus pushing the LibDems into letting her strap on wings for her flight to the sun. The Johnson government was contained. Why change things by having a 2nd re-election?
Fake news once you take into account "debt" to the Bank of England the reality is very different.
That entire months borrowing was paid for by the BoE yesterday.
Weird how we can suddenly lend money to ourselves after so long being told it was impossible and we would be saddling our grandchildren with debt. Tory economics folks
Good try but pandemic economics is the correct response
And yet I'm sure it was the wrong response post 2008 as the Tories have insisted for 12 years
Fake news once you take into account "debt" to the Bank of England the reality is very different.
That entire months borrowing was paid for by the BoE yesterday.
Weird how we can suddenly lend money to ourselves after so long being told it was impossible and we would be saddling our grandchildren with debt. Tory economics folks
Good try but pandemic economics is the correct response
And yet I'm sure it was the wrong response post 2008 as the Tories have insisted for 12 years
Undertaking countercyclical fiscal policy is one of those irregular verbs. I support the economy in the wake of a global economic shock. You trash the public finances and leave the country saddled with debt. The tragedy is that Labour are probably too honest to play this game like the Tories did in 2010.
When did the Tories support the economy in the wake of the global economic shock? They had 10 years to do so, they failed.
Fake news once you take into account "debt" to the Bank of England the reality is very different.
That entire months borrowing was paid for by the BoE yesterday.
Weird how we can suddenly lend money to ourselves after so long being told it was impossible and we would be saddling our grandchildren with debt. Tory economics folks
Good try but pandemic economics is the correct response
And yet I'm sure it was the wrong response post 2008 as the Tories have insisted for 12 years
It might or it might not, people will disagree. Taking a different view in light of today's extremely different situation doesnt speak as to it as a general policy one bit. Different responses for different times is a perfectly reasonable view to hold.
Decisions like this have always been about the risks and costs of now vs tomorrow and the factors have shifted. It's why people pushing the same extreme economic solutions at all like communists or fanatical libertarians are so dumb.
Excellent piece by Fraser Nelson in Telegraph on need to stop being so cautious.
"Germany has been more sensible. Its route out of lockdown has been to relax controls as long as the virus stays below a certain level in each region: 50 infections in a week for every 100,000 people."
That cartoon is so badly drawn I was wondering what Barack Obama had said to upset Steve Bell.
He’s got barely more artistic talent than I have.
That's Peter Brookes. He's basically just a funny as Steve Bell. Definitely someone who hasn't recovered from June 2016.
Without wishing to defend either or indeed any cartoonist, we should remember that some see their role as satire rather than humour, to illustrate rather than amuse.
Yes, but Bell has been doing the cartoon equivalent of shouting incoherent abuse for the last thirty years. That isn't satire.
Economy definitely bouncing back. It feels better already. Just need Boris to man up a d reduce the distancing to 1m and open up the pubs.
Are you being serious?
The economy won't bounce back for years, wait until the furlough finishes and people realise that tourism, hospitality, sport and leisure are decimated.
I haven't said it's bounced back, I said it's bouncing back. There's a huge difference.
The mad lefties can stop blaming Starmer for the defeat now.
The truth is, we should never have allowed a GE.
Very true. Johnson's election will perhaps serve you well. Corbyn has been ejected, his henchmen (and women) are dropping like flies. And with the benefit of six months of hindsight this might have been a election not to win.
The flip side to this is Johnson has almost four years to turn it around.
If a Labour minority Government somehow had been formed, I think it would have collapsed due to Coronavirus and we'd be shortly having a Tory majority Government elected again anyway.
Labour actually needs to spend a period in opposition getting ready for Government instead of just talking to itself. At least the current leadership seems to actually look at the polls as opposed to ignoring them and hoping it will turn around like the last one.
The report is spot on, we treated 2017 like a victory when we should have treated it like a loss. Corbyn should have stepped down in 2017, 2018, or 2019 (the latter I did originally call for but I accept I didn't stick with it) and Starmer should have taken over. Starmer vs May would have lead to a Labour minority Government and Brexit being stopped without any GE.
Labour made so many mistakes, mistake after mistake. And that can only be put down to a leadership that really had no idea about how to strategise.
Labour have one opportunity only, SFAICS. There is a massive market place for competence and at the moment no national party with much/any credibility in that area. On central big expenditure issues (pensions, schools, housing, public spending, migration) there is remarkably little difference between the parties once Brexit is completed. If Labour work on style (you can't win elections by pleasing sociology lecturers and the Guardian), competence (they may be all useless but someone has to be more convincing than the alternative) and toxicity (the Pidcock tendency, the Jewish issue, dim/extreme back benchers, victim culture, class hatred both real and made up) they can still recover.
They had a chap who did that quite well for a time. What on earth was his name?
Fake news once you take into account "debt" to the Bank of England the reality is very different.
That entire months borrowing was paid for by the BoE yesterday.
Weird how we can suddenly lend money to ourselves after so long being told it was impossible and we would be saddling our grandchildren with debt. Tory economics folks
Good try but pandemic economics is the correct response
And yet I'm sure it was the wrong response post 2008 as the Tories have insisted for 12 years
Fake news once you take into account "debt" to the Bank of England the reality is very different.
That entire months borrowing was paid for by the BoE yesterday.
Weird how we can suddenly lend money to ourselves after so long being told it was impossible and we would be saddling our grandchildren with debt. Tory economics folks
Good try but pandemic economics is the correct response
And yet I'm sure it was the wrong response post 2008 as the Tories have insisted for 12 years
Undertaking countercyclical fiscal policy is one of those irregular verbs. I support the economy in the wake of a global economic shock. You trash the public finances and leave the country saddled with debt. The tragedy is that Labour are probably too honest to play this game like the Tories did in 2010.
When did the Tories support the economy in the wake of the global economic shock? They had 10 years to do so, they failed.
What do you think the hundreds of billions that they borrowed and spent was ?
The mad lefties can stop blaming Starmer for the defeat now.
The truth is, we should never have allowed a GE.
Very true. Johnson's election will perhaps serve you well. Corbyn has been ejected, his henchmen (and women) are dropping like flies. And with the benefit of six months of hindsight this might have been a election not to win.
The flip side to this is Johnson has almost four years to turn it around.
If a Labour minority Government somehow had been formed, I think it would have collapsed due to Coronavirus and we'd be shortly having a Tory majority Government elected again anyway.
Labour actually needs to spend a period in opposition getting ready for Government instead of just talking to itself. At least the current leadership seems to actually look at the polls as opposed to ignoring them and hoping it will turn around like the last one.
The report is spot on, we treated 2017 like a victory when we should have treated it like a loss. Corbyn should have stepped down in 2017, 2018, or 2019 (the latter I did originally call for but I accept I didn't stick with it) and Starmer should have taken over. Starmer vs May would have lead to a Labour minority Government and Brexit being stopped without any GE.
Labour made so many mistakes, mistake after mistake. And that can only be put down to a leadership that really had no idea about how to strategise.
Corbyn was like a malignant tumour. Even once removed, one can't be sure traces remain that could come back more aggressively.
I have said here on many occasions, if was never Corbyn's dream to be elected Prime Minister. Corbyn is a man who desires power without responsibility. He achieved this through protest, and better still protest against people who purport to be on his side, like Blair.
Corbyn's legacy is a deep distrust of metropolitan liberals. Starmer, unfortunately also fits that bill. In reality so is Johnson but he pretends to be otherwise. But don't worry about that. Don't worry either about the allegation regularly made here that Starmer has no charm or charisma. If the economy tanks like never before (and I can't see how that is avoidable) charm and charisma are the least of our worries.
Excellent piece by Fraser Nelson in Telegraph on need to stop being so cautious.
"Germany has been more sensible. Its route out of lockdown has been to relax controls as long as the virus stays below a certain level in each region: 50 infections in a week for every 100,000 people."
Nowhere near it. I assume the Germans set out a plan which said "if x happens then y" and stuck to it? Our failure to stick to our own plan because incompetence is brilliant. Even the app - which PBers said from the get go would not work - was a brilliant example of English exceptionalism. Do you want to adopt the global approach? No thank you we will develop our own app which will be Better than yours. We must have this app to make it safe for kids to go back to schools. // OK so the app didn't work, but its safe to go to school anyway WHY WON'T YOU SAY IT'S SAFE
Fake news once you take into account "debt" to the Bank of England the reality is very different.
That entire months borrowing was paid for by the BoE yesterday.
Weird how we can suddenly lend money to ourselves after so long being told it was impossible and we would be saddling our grandchildren with debt. Tory economics folks
There's a difference between borrowing for an economic crisis during the crisis and doing so during times of growth. If you don't understand that I'm not sure how to break it down into smaller pieces to explain it to you.
Economy definitely bouncing back. It feels better already. Just need Boris to man up a d reduce the distancing to 1m and open up the pubs.
Premature cheery optimism this early in the morning. You must be Boris Johnson!
No, just some data we got in this morning on order book values. It's much more positive than it was last month, plus just a sense that people are more confident than they were last month.
Whatever floats your boat. But I predict choppy seas ahead.
Of course - but some bit of the economy are doing OK, alongside others which are a smoking ruin. What business are you in, Max ?
Looking slightly further ahead than the Independence (from the Rona) Day weekend changes, what do people expect for holidays this year? Whilst the travel industry is screaming at the government to drop its quarantine I see no signs this will be reciprocated if we do. The UK has already spread the pox back into New Zealand, we're still a country mile more infected than most EU countries and if you are Greece or Spain or other major destinations I'd be surprised to see them risk the massive economic impact of another outbreak to take the money from the usual lager-fuelled wazzocks that consist of smo many ENglish abroad holidays in the Med.
Which gives us the UK. Well, England. Scotland says we can't come. Wales says we can't comeNI says we can late July maybe. So Skeggy is an option. Or go to Ulster and visit the beautiful Antrim coast. But further afield? We get to sit this one out, listening to tossers lie about the track and trace app we needed to reopen whilst foreigners we believe to be beneath us enjoy holidays. That is the point when the government really gets unpopular...
An interesting contrast from your "parents don't want to send their kids to school" to your "everyone wants to fly abroad on holiday".
Fake news once you take into account "debt" to the Bank of England the reality is very different.
That entire months borrowing was paid for by the BoE yesterday.
Weird how we can suddenly lend money to ourselves after so long being told it was impossible and we would be saddling our grandchildren with debt. Tory economics folks
There's a difference between borrowing for an economic crisis during the crisis and doing so during times of growth. If you don't understand that I'm not sure how to break it down into smaller pieces to explain it to you.
I don't see any way the Conservatives are going to get out of this fiscal hole in the next 4 years.
The current leadership have shown no desire to get out of the fiscal hole so, provided there isn't a Sterling crisis to force them to, then they won't even try.
Until the general election campaign when they will try to scare the voters with a tale of how Labour will wreck the economy the Tories rescued by borrowing too much.
Looking slightly further ahead than the Independence (from the Rona) Day weekend changes, what do people expect for holidays this year? Whilst the travel industry is screaming at the government to drop its quarantine I see no signs this will be reciprocated if we do. The UK has already spread the pox back into New Zealand, we're still a country mile more infected than most EU countries and if you are Greece or Spain or other major destinations I'd be surprised to see them risk the massive economic impact of another outbreak to take the money from the usual lager-fuelled wazzocks that consist of smo many ENglish abroad holidays in the Med.
Which gives us the UK. Well, England. Scotland says we can't come. Wales says we can't comeNI says we can late July maybe. So Skeggy is an option. Or go to Ulster and visit the beautiful Antrim coast. But further afield? We get to sit this one out, listening to tossers lie about the track and trace app we needed to reopen whilst foreigners we believe to be beneath us enjoy holidays. That is the point when the government really gets unpopular...
As you well know the image of Spain is different away from the traditional resorts, there are many keen to visit relatives, as you are and second home owners who just want some sun and to see friends. But those of us out here would, unless we ran a English facing bar or restaurant woulD be happier to wait till next spring to see them when, all being well infection rates are negligible.
Economy definitely bouncing back. It feels better already. Just need Boris to man up a d reduce the distancing to 1m and open up the pubs.
Premature cheery optimism this early in the morning. You must be Boris Johnson!
Retail up 12% in May on April
June will be interesting since easing in England and more shops opening in Scotland and Wales next week.
On my first venture out of 12 weeks lockdown yesterday to B & Q I was impressed how organised it was and there did seem to be as many shoppers as normal times
The troops are demob happy, keen to spend Rishi's windfall.
If Boris and his pals can prevent economic armageddon, you are right, the guys is a genius.
We have to remember many people are better off with lockdown and WFH together with thousands receiving holiday refunds or holding back on booking holidays that once the hotel and leisure industries are released, together with the idiotic 5 mile driving restrictions in Scotland and Wales a lot of this pent up demand will flow back into the economy
Non of this will heal the damage but it should mitigate it
On the headline debt figures it should also be remembered that business was told it could defer the quarters VAT payment for twelve months. VAT receipts fell by half, but some of that will get paid first quarter next year (by me, too - if I'm still around).
Looking slightly further ahead than the Independence (from the Rona) Day weekend changes, what do people expect for holidays this year? Whilst the travel industry is screaming at the government to drop its quarantine I see no signs this will be reciprocated if we do. The UK has already spread the pox back into New Zealand, we're still a country mile more infected than most EU countries and if you are Greece or Spain or other major destinations I'd be surprised to see them risk the massive economic impact of another outbreak to take the money from the usual lager-fuelled wazzocks that consist of smo many ENglish abroad holidays in the Med.
Which gives us the UK. Well, England. Scotland says we can't come. Wales says we can't comeNI says we can late July maybe. So Skeggy is an option. Or go to Ulster and visit the beautiful Antrim coast. But further afield? We get to sit this one out, listening to tossers lie about the track and trace app we needed to reopen whilst foreigners we believe to be beneath us enjoy holidays. That is the point when the government really gets unpopular...
Interesting Qantas have stopped all international flights other than to New Zealand until October and they expect Australia to continue the ban until 2021. Spain has banned cruise ships indefinitely
As for your last paragraph Scotland is due to open for tourism mid july and Drakeford is really being attacked now over his driving restriction to 5 miles and North Wales holiday organisation and it's parks are demanding to be allowed to open from mid july. It is expected he will have no choice but to agree
As far as your loaded statement about 'foreigners' the quarantine to Europe is likely to go by mid july but not the rest of the world
This forum seems to predict the unpopularity of HMG daily and of course Boris is gifting many own goals, but do not underestimate the ability of the conservative party to change leaders and win elections
Looking slightly further ahead than the Independence (from the Rona) Day weekend changes, what do people expect for holidays this year? Whilst the travel industry is screaming at the government to drop its quarantine I see no signs this will be reciprocated if we do. The UK has already spread the pox back into New Zealand, we're still a country mile more infected than most EU countries and if you are Greece or Spain or other major destinations I'd be surprised to see them risk the massive economic impact of another outbreak to take the money from the usual lager-fuelled wazzocks that consist of smo many ENglish abroad holidays in the Med.
Which gives us the UK. Well, England. Scotland says we can't come. Wales says we can't comeNI says we can late July maybe. So Skeggy is an option. Or go to Ulster and visit the beautiful Antrim coast. But further afield? We get to sit this one out, listening to tossers lie about the track and trace app we needed to reopen whilst foreigners we believe to be beneath us enjoy holidays. That is the point when the government really gets unpopular...
There's the Lakes... @Cyclefree 's daughter might get some decent business in the late summer ?
Fake news once you take into account "debt" to the Bank of England the reality is very different.
That entire months borrowing was paid for by the BoE yesterday.
Weird how we can suddenly lend money to ourselves after so long being told it was impossible and we would be saddling our grandchildren with debt. Tory economics folks
Good try but pandemic economics is the correct response
And yet I'm sure it was the wrong response post 2008 as the Tories have insisted for 12 years
Fake news once you take into account "debt" to the Bank of England the reality is very different.
That entire months borrowing was paid for by the BoE yesterday.
Weird how we can suddenly lend money to ourselves after so long being told it was impossible and we would be saddling our grandchildren with debt. Tory economics folks
Good try but pandemic economics is the correct response
And yet I'm sure it was the wrong response post 2008 as the Tories have insisted for 12 years
Undertaking countercyclical fiscal policy is one of those irregular verbs. I support the economy in the wake of a global economic shock. You trash the public finances and leave the country saddled with debt. The tragedy is that Labour are probably too honest to play this game like the Tories did in 2010.
When did the Tories support the economy in the wake of the global economic shock? They had 10 years to do so, they failed.
What global economic shock under the Tories are you talking about? The global economic shock was in 2007/8.
The Tories took over in 2010.
The shock was already over by then. The UK was growing in 2010 and grew every single year for a decade until 2020.
Borrowing in 2007/8 for the shock is reasonable. Borrowing insane amounts years later would not be.
Fake news once you take into account "debt" to the Bank of England the reality is very different.
That entire months borrowing was paid for by the BoE yesterday.
Weird how we can suddenly lend money to ourselves after so long being told it was impossible and we would be saddling our grandchildren with debt. Tory economics folks
There's a difference between borrowing for an economic crisis during the crisis and doing so during times of growth. If you don't understand that I'm not sure how to break it down into smaller pieces to explain it to you.
Unnecessarily rude again Philip.
the essence of what he is saying is correct. don't get too precious, it'll give you ulcers.
Economy definitely bouncing back. It feels better already. Just need Boris to man up a d reduce the distancing to 1m and open up the pubs.
Premature cheery optimism this early in the morning. You must be Boris Johnson!
No, just some data we got in this morning on order book values. It's much more positive than it was last month, plus just a sense that people are more confident than they were last month.
Whatever floats your boat. But I predict choppy seas ahead.
Of course - but some bit of the economy are doing OK, alongside others which are a smoking ruin. What business are you in, Max ?
City. But the data we get is from a group of representative manufacturing businesses in the UK.
Fake news once you take into account "debt" to the Bank of England the reality is very different.
That entire months borrowing was paid for by the BoE yesterday.
Weird how we can suddenly lend money to ourselves after so long being told it was impossible and we would be saddling our grandchildren with debt. Tory economics folks
Good try but pandemic economics is the correct response
And yet I'm sure it was the wrong response post 2008 as the Tories have insisted for 12 years
Fake news once you take into account "debt" to the Bank of England the reality is very different.
That entire months borrowing was paid for by the BoE yesterday.
Weird how we can suddenly lend money to ourselves after so long being told it was impossible and we would be saddling our grandchildren with debt. Tory economics folks
Good try but pandemic economics is the correct response
And yet I'm sure it was the wrong response post 2008 as the Tories have insisted for 12 years
Undertaking countercyclical fiscal policy is one of those irregular verbs. I support the economy in the wake of a global economic shock. You trash the public finances and leave the country saddled with debt. The tragedy is that Labour are probably too honest to play this game like the Tories did in 2010.
When did the Tories support the economy in the wake of the global economic shock? They had 10 years to do so, they failed.
I think that's unfair. The Tories almost doubled the national debt in the ten years to 2019 so they must have been doing some borrowing!
Economy definitely bouncing back. It feels better already. Just need Boris to man up a d reduce the distancing to 1m and open up the pubs.
Premature cheery optimism this early in the morning. You must be Boris Johnson!
No, just some data we got in this morning on order book values. It's much more positive than it was last month, plus just a sense that people are more confident than they were last month.
Whatever floats your boat. But I predict choppy seas ahead.
Of course - but some bit of the economy are doing OK, alongside others which are a smoking ruin. What business are you in, Max ?
This is true, even within industries. Universities may well be in the smoking ruin category for the next few years, but my department (which has pretty much only nursing students, mostly from UK, as undergrads) is likely to see at least a short term boost in research funding as the NIHR, MRC and Wellcome are putting out extra calls for COVID-related research (it may still be there are lean times ahead if NIHR/MRC funding is just becoming front-loaded rather than sustainably increased).
Looking slightly further ahead than the Independence (from the Rona) Day weekend changes, what do people expect for holidays this year? Whilst the travel industry is screaming at the government to drop its quarantine I see no signs this will be reciprocated if we do. The UK has already spread the pox back into New Zealand, we're still a country mile more infected than most EU countries and if you are Greece or Spain or other major destinations I'd be surprised to see them risk the massive economic impact of another outbreak to take the money from the usual lager-fuelled wazzocks that consist of smo many ENglish abroad holidays in the Med.
Which gives us the UK. Well, England. Scotland says we can't come. Wales says we can't comeNI says we can late July maybe. So Skeggy is an option. Or go to Ulster and visit the beautiful Antrim coast. But further afield? We get to sit this one out, listening to tossers lie about the track and trace app we needed to reopen whilst foreigners we believe to be beneath us enjoy holidays. That is the point when the government really gets unpopular...
An interesting contrast from your "parents don't want to send their kids to school" to your "everyone wants to fly abroad on holiday".
Not everyone - most parents with kids in school haven't been given the chance to have to make the decision. But a summer holiday? That's pretty universal
Fake news once you take into account "debt" to the Bank of England the reality is very different.
That entire months borrowing was paid for by the BoE yesterday.
Weird how we can suddenly lend money to ourselves after so long being told it was impossible and we would be saddling our grandchildren with debt. Tory economics folks
There's a difference between borrowing for an economic crisis during the crisis and doing so during times of growth. If you don't understand that I'm not sure how to break it down into smaller pieces to explain it to you.
Unnecessarily rude again Philip.
Well if someone can't understand the difference between a crisis and growth times many years after a crisis then what are we supposed to say?
Economy definitely bouncing back. It feels better already. Just need Boris to man up a d reduce the distancing to 1m and open up the pubs.
Premature cheery optimism this early in the morning. You must be Boris Johnson!
Retail up 12% in May on April
June will be interesting since easing in England and more shops opening in Scotland and Wales next week.
On my first venture out of 12 weeks lockdown yesterday to B & Q I was impressed how organised it was and there did seem to be as many shoppers as normal times
The troops are demob happy, keen to spend Rishi's windfall.
If Boris and his pals can prevent economic armageddon, you are right, the guys is a genius.
We have to remember many people are better off with lockdown and WFH together with thousands receiving holiday refunds or holding back on booking holidays that once the hotel and leisure industries are released, together with the idiotic 5 mile driving restrictions in Scotland and Wales a lot of this pent up demand will flow back into the economy
Non of this will heal the damage but it should mitigate it
On the headline debt figures it should also be remembered that business was told it could defer the quarters VAT payment for twelve months. VAT receipts fell by half, but some of that will get paid first quarter next year (by me, too - if I'm still around).
Excellent piece by Fraser Nelson in Telegraph on need to stop being so cautious.
"Germany has been more sensible. Its route out of lockdown has been to relax controls as long as the virus stays below a certain level in each region: 50 infections in a week for every 100,000 people."
I always thought our "guided by the science" meant there was an in house formula that was a function of (Best estimate) R and current prevalence to determine what should/shouldn't happen. Indeed if our '5 step' alert level isn't designed to trigger between levels at various outputs of that function then what the hell is it based on ?
Fake news once you take into account "debt" to the Bank of England the reality is very different.
That entire months borrowing was paid for by the BoE yesterday.
Weird how we can suddenly lend money to ourselves after so long being told it was impossible and we would be saddling our grandchildren with debt. Tory economics folks
There's a difference between borrowing for an economic crisis during the crisis and doing so during times of growth. If you don't understand that I'm not sure how to break it down into smaller pieces to explain it to you.
Unless...the level of poverty in this country and in particular the level of child poverty constitutes a crisis every bit as grave as the Coronavirus? Or the closure of libraries represents a crisis for peoples' literacy and access to learning. Or the rundown of the NHS constitutes a crisis which...etc.
One man's crisis is another's BAU. Once you get to choose the crisis (by being in government) you can justify anything.
But a major media platform should not be preventing one of two serious candidates in an election from advertising as they see fit. Provided the ads are legal and within the electoral rules they should be permitted.
Otherwise - at best - You create a narrative of “he would have won but”
Ooh, an 'I'm no fan of Trump but' by any other name.
Meaning what? It seems that people suggest that means the person actually supports Trump, and while there will be examples of that in existence, most 'I'm no fan of X but' comments really are from people who are not fans of X and the old adage of 'ignore everything before the but' really does not work.
We could all very easily I'm sure find personal examples of using such a phrase either in praise, reluctant mitigation or nuance about someone or something we dont like.
Ooh, an "I'm no fan of folk who say 'I'm no no can of Trump but', but".
De Gaulle was a deeply flawed individual, who made many mistakes, but like Churchill rose to the occasion when needed. Neither was a saint by any means, but both deserve garlands for what they did in the war, as well as the brickbats for some of their other actions.
Just as well we never fell into the hands of a flawed individual who buggered it up when the occasion came along, then.
Has anybody ever met an individual who isn't flawed?
Fake news once you take into account "debt" to the Bank of England the reality is very different.
That entire months borrowing was paid for by the BoE yesterday.
Weird how we can suddenly lend money to ourselves after so long being told it was impossible and we would be saddling our grandchildren with debt. Tory economics folks
There's a difference between borrowing for an economic crisis during the crisis and doing so during times of growth. If you don't understand that I'm not sure how to break it down into smaller pieces to explain it to you.
Unless...the level of poverty in this country and in particular the level of child poverty constitutes a crisis every bit as grave as the Coronavirus? Or the closure of libraries represents a crisis for peoples' literacy and access to learning. Or the rundown of the NHS constitutes a crisis which...etc.
One man's crisis is another's BAU. Once you get to choose the crisis (by being in government) you can justify anything.
No because the difference between a health crisis and what you're describing is it is temporary. We will get through the coronavirus crisis to the other side. Once we are through to the other side of the pandemic then we will need to restore balance to the economy.
That's not the case with writing blank cheques for permanent things. I'm assuming you don't want the library open temporarily? If you want the library permanently open you need to be able to afford it.
To be fair it is hard for cartoonists to create a caricature of Raab, when a photo is already 90% of the way there.
If you speak to cartoonists, they will tell you that some politicians are much more difficult to do than others. Cameron was notoriously difficult. Have a look at a picture of him; it's a very bland face with no distinguishing characteristic.
I should say Raab presents a similar problem.
Presumably Gove is a gift to cartoonists.
Just checked with one and the answer was definitely! Raab not easy but not the worst.
Edit: Apparently Cummings is a gift too, so there is at least one part of the community that regrets his current disappearance from the front pages.
Why didnt they test the alternative app like they did their preferred one on the IoW? Surely a parallel trial somewhere else would have happened if we were backing both horses.
Even now, cant we just take one of the apps like the German one, and translate it? Couldnt that be done in less than a week?
Yes it could. The code for the German app is open source.
In which case a simple translation probably costs so little the Labour party could afford to pay to get it translated and have it released on Iphone and Android by the start of July. That would be truly effective opposition.
The mad lefties can stop blaming Starmer for the defeat now.
The truth is, we should never have allowed a GE.
Yes, the main swing from 2017 to 2019 was Labour to LD, the Labour vote was down 8%, the Tories vote only up 2% but the LD vote up 4% and some Labour voters went Brexit Party.
Now most of that LD vote has returned to Labour under Starmer
De Gaulle was a deeply flawed individual, who made many mistakes, but like Churchill rose to the occasion when needed. Neither was a saint by any means, but both deserve garlands for what they did in the war, as well as the brickbats for some of their other actions.
Just as well we never fell into the hands of a flawed individual who buggered it up when the occasion came along, then.
Has anybody ever met an individual who isn't flawed?
Floyd Mayweather?
The pun very very nearly works.
"Hasn't been" in the question and it's a slam dunk.
Excellent piece by Fraser Nelson in Telegraph on need to stop being so cautious.
"Germany has been more sensible. Its route out of lockdown has been to relax controls as long as the virus stays below a certain level in each region: 50 infections in a week for every 100,000 people."
Running at about one quarter of that limit in England on my (hopefully correct) calculations. I think the German 50 infections per 100 000 week regulation is the point at which you need to slam on the emergency brakes. The target should be much lower than that.
I would say this means the UK has some limited room for easing off, but not a lot. Bear in mind Germany has eased off its lockdowns already and it still has lower infection rates.
Looking slightly further ahead than the Independence (from the Rona) Day weekend changes, what do people expect for holidays this year? Whilst the travel industry is screaming at the government to drop its quarantine I see no signs this will be reciprocated if we do. The UK has already spread the pox back into New Zealand, we're still a country mile more infected than most EU countries and if you are Greece or Spain or other major destinations I'd be surprised to see them risk the massive economic impact of another outbreak to take the money from the usual lager-fuelled wazzocks that consist of smo many ENglish abroad holidays in the Med.
Which gives us the UK. Well, England. Scotland says we can't come. Wales says we can't comeNI says we can late July maybe. So Skeggy is an option. Or go to Ulster and visit the beautiful Antrim coast. But further afield? We get to sit this one out, listening to tossers lie about the track and trace app we needed to reopen whilst foreigners we believe to be beneath us enjoy holidays. That is the point when the government really gets unpopular...
An interesting contrast from your "parents don't want to send their kids to school" to your "everyone wants to fly abroad on holiday".
Not everyone - most parents with kids in school haven't been given the chance to have to make the decision. But a summer holiday? That's pretty universal
For many people they've already had a multi month holiday.
Instead of wanting to fly abroad at higher than normal cost and with more than normal restrictions people would be better advised to get their own finances in order, improve their skillsets and improve their health.
Fake news once you take into account "debt" to the Bank of England the reality is very different.
That entire months borrowing was paid for by the BoE yesterday.
Weird how we can suddenly lend money to ourselves after so long being told it was impossible and we would be saddling our grandchildren with debt. Tory economics folks
There's a difference between borrowing for an economic crisis during the crisis and doing so during times of growth. If you don't understand that I'm not sure how to break it down into smaller pieces to explain it to you.
Unless...the level of poverty in this country and in particular the level of child poverty constitutes a crisis every bit as grave as the Coronavirus? Or the closure of libraries represents a crisis for peoples' literacy and access to learning. Or the rundown of the NHS constitutes a crisis which...etc.
One man's crisis is another's BAU. Once you get to choose the crisis (by being in government) you can justify anything.
No because the difference between a health crisis and what you're describing is it is temporary. We will get through the coronavirus crisis to the other side. Once we are through to the other side of the pandemic then we will need to restore balance to the economy.
That's not the case with writing blank cheques for permanent things. I'm assuming you don't want the library open temporarily? If you want the library permanently open you need to be able to afford it.
That is your definition of a crisis which justifies near-unlimited borrowing. And your criteria about libraries. The govt can make its own definitions. Including a Labour government.
Fake news once you take into account "debt" to the Bank of England the reality is very different.
That entire months borrowing was paid for by the BoE yesterday.
Weird how we can suddenly lend money to ourselves after so long being told it was impossible and we would be saddling our grandchildren with debt. Tory economics folks
There's a difference between borrowing for an economic crisis during the crisis and doing so during times of growth. If you don't understand that I'm not sure how to break it down into smaller pieces to explain it to you.
Unless...the level of poverty in this country and in particular the level of child poverty constitutes a crisis every bit as grave as the Coronavirus? Or the closure of libraries represents a crisis for peoples' literacy and access to learning. Or the rundown of the NHS constitutes a crisis which...etc.
One man's crisis is another's BAU. Once you get to choose the crisis (by being in government) you can justify anything.
No because the difference between a health crisis and what you're describing is it is temporary. We will get through the coronavirus crisis to the other side. Once we are through to the other side of the pandemic then we will need to restore balance to the economy.
That's not the case with writing blank cheques for permanent things. I'm assuming you don't want the library open temporarily? If you want the library permanently open you need to be able to afford it.
That is your definition of a crisis which justifies near-unlimited borrowing. And your criteria about libraries. The govt can make its own definitions. Including a Labour government.
No the definition of recession and growth is a global one, not mine.
I'm still reeling from that poll from last night showing Trump is actually relatively popular with blacks and hispanic voters.
His problem is with whites.
Relatively popular based on the difference between him being on 9% in a small poll or 8% at the last election might be stretching things to the point of absurdity.
Fake news once you take into account "debt" to the Bank of England the reality is very different.
That entire months borrowing was paid for by the BoE yesterday.
Weird how we can suddenly lend money to ourselves after so long being told it was impossible and we would be saddling our grandchildren with debt. Tory economics folks
There's a difference between borrowing for an economic crisis during the crisis and doing so during times of growth. If you don't understand that I'm not sure how to break it down into smaller pieces to explain it to you.
Unless...the level of poverty in this country and in particular the level of child poverty constitutes a crisis every bit as grave as the Coronavirus? Or the closure of libraries represents a crisis for peoples' literacy and access to learning. Or the rundown of the NHS constitutes a crisis which...etc.
One man's crisis is another's BAU. Once you get to choose the crisis (by being in government) you can justify anything.
No because the difference between a health crisis and what you're describing is it is temporary. We will get through the coronavirus crisis to the other side. Once we are through to the other side of the pandemic then we will need to restore balance to the economy.
That's not the case with writing blank cheques for permanent things. I'm assuming you don't want the library open temporarily? If you want the library permanently open you need to be able to afford it.
That is your definition of a crisis which justifies near-unlimited borrowing. And your criteria about libraries. The govt can make its own definitions. Including a Labour government.
No the definition of recession and growth is a global one, not mine.
Absolutely. What is the global definition of a crisis?
I'm still reeling from that poll from last night showing Trump is actually relatively popular with blacks and hispanic voters.
His problem is with whites.
Yes Trump is getting the highest percentage of the black vote for a Republican since George W Bush in 2004 but Biden is getting the highest percentage of the white vote for a Democrat since Obama in 2008.
Good news for Biden in the rustbelt with the white working class but also for Trump. For example the Republican who won the highest share of the white vote since 2000 was Romney but Romney stilll narrowly lost, George W Bush won
So the Lib Dem approach is to full leftie and compete with Labour.
They need to win Tory seats, why do they not get this
It is a leadership pitch by Layla. Ed is clearly more centrist, not quite in the picture with Daisy.
Layla will at least get media attention, as she is a natural on camera, and getting noticed is important.
Lib Dems are a democratic party so we will see how many of these ideas get adopted. It is a bit castles on clouds as I think it very unlikely to be a LD majority government, but a bit of rapprochement with Labour, and a willingness to tactically vote (in both directions) is a key to ending Tory rule. I think both LD and Labour know in their hearts that is true.
Fake news once you take into account "debt" to the Bank of England the reality is very different.
That entire months borrowing was paid for by the BoE yesterday.
Weird how we can suddenly lend money to ourselves after so long being told it was impossible and we would be saddling our grandchildren with debt. Tory economics folks
There's a difference between borrowing for an economic crisis during the crisis and doing so during times of growth. If you don't understand that I'm not sure how to break it down into smaller pieces to explain it to you.
Unless...the level of poverty in this country and in particular the level of child poverty constitutes a crisis every bit as grave as the Coronavirus? Or the closure of libraries represents a crisis for peoples' literacy and access to learning. Or the rundown of the NHS constitutes a crisis which...etc.
One man's crisis is another's BAU. Once you get to choose the crisis (by being in government) you can justify anything.
No because the difference between a health crisis and what you're describing is it is temporary. We will get through the coronavirus crisis to the other side. Once we are through to the other side of the pandemic then we will need to restore balance to the economy.
That's not the case with writing blank cheques for permanent things. I'm assuming you don't want the library open temporarily? If you want the library permanently open you need to be able to afford it.
That is your definition of a crisis which justifies near-unlimited borrowing. And your criteria about libraries. The govt can make its own definitions. Including a Labour government.
No the definition of recession and growth is a global one, not mine.
Absolutely. What is the global definition of a crisis?
A recession.
I specifically said an economic crisis as opposed to "times of growth". After the recession the deficit will need to be resolved.
I'm still reeling from that poll from last night showing Trump is actually relatively popular with blacks and hispanic voters.
His problem is with whites.
Yes Trump is getting the highest percentage of the black vote for a Republican since George W Bush in 2004 but Biden is getting the highest percentage of the white vote for a Democrat since Obama in 2008.
Good news for Biden in the rustbelt with the white working class but also for Trump. For example the Republican who won the highest share of the white vote since 2000 was Romney but Romney stilll narrowly lost, George W Bush won
I wonder if Trump piling in hard on Biden being China's candidate and Osama's candidate is an attempt to regain the initiative in the rustbelt states?
Excellent piece by Fraser Nelson in Telegraph on need to stop being so cautious.
"Germany has been more sensible. Its route out of lockdown has been to relax controls as long as the virus stays below a certain level in each region: 50 infections in a week for every 100,000 people."
I do sometimes think that a perfectly serviceable general rule for us in most walks of activity is to do what Germany does. Certainly this should be considered on anything to do with the health and economic response to the coronavirus.
Get a hold of their plans, change the boilerplate so Muscles & Co can present it as theirs at the daily pressers, and then implement rigorously, checking back with Berlin on a regular basis to make sure we're doing it right.
If they insist on a fee? Fine. We can pay them in fish.
I'm still reeling from that poll from last night showing Trump is actually relatively popular with blacks and hispanic voters.
His problem is with whites.
Not that much of a surprise TBH. There are a fairly large amount of social media feeds out there from younger Black activists who say it is time for the community to stop relying on the Democrats who have done nothing for the Black community in urban areas and just view them as a pool of votes.
Re Hispanics, many view themselves as white and there is a huge social difference depending on how light your skin colour, your ancestry etc between the different groups.
One thing that hasn't been mentioned much about what is happening with BLM is that it risks - for the Democrats - fracturing the Black / Hispanic coalition. The two communities don't have the best relations. Check out what is happening in New Mexico at the moment with BLM and Native Indian activists on one side and Hispanics on the other side fighting over the statues to the Conquistadores.
Re whites, it is an issue for Trump but I suspect he will be secretly very happy with the two Supreme Court decisions this week. It will fire up his base and strengthen his argument to evangelicals and Catholics (the latter are particularly worried about lawsuits in the light of the LGBTQ decision) that more works needs to be done on the Supreme Court with Roberts having gone "rogue". It is entirely possible you could have four Justices need to be replaced in the next Presidential term.
Yeh, a ban.That'll work with 1000s of beered-up fans.
Great idea.
Bonkers.
How do you 'ban' singing? How would they enforce a 'ban'
We couldn't enforce a ban on a song that openly glorifies sectarian violence in Scotland (much helped by hypocritical politicians), so yeah, it'd be difficult.
Fake news once you take into account "debt" to the Bank of England the reality is very different.
That entire months borrowing was paid for by the BoE yesterday.
Weird how we can suddenly lend money to ourselves after so long being told it was impossible and we would be saddling our grandchildren with debt. Tory economics folks
There's a difference between borrowing for an economic crisis during the crisis and doing so during times of growth. If you don't understand that I'm not sure how to break it down into smaller pieces to explain it to you.
Unless...the level of poverty in this country and in particular the level of child poverty constitutes a crisis every bit as grave as the Coronavirus? Or the closure of libraries represents a crisis for peoples' literacy and access to learning. Or the rundown of the NHS constitutes a crisis which...etc.
One man's crisis is another's BAU. Once you get to choose the crisis (by being in government) you can justify anything.
No because the difference between a health crisis and what you're describing is it is temporary. We will get through the coronavirus crisis to the other side. Once we are through to the other side of the pandemic then we will need to restore balance to the economy.
That's not the case with writing blank cheques for permanent things. I'm assuming you don't want the library open temporarily? If you want the library permanently open you need to be able to afford it.
That is your definition of a crisis which justifies near-unlimited borrowing. And your criteria about libraries. The govt can make its own definitions. Including a Labour government.
No the definition of recession and growth is a global one, not mine.
Absolutely. What is the global definition of a crisis?
A recession.
I specifically said an economic crisis as opposed to "times of growth". After the recession the deficit will need to be resolved.
You have deemed an "economic crisis" as being worthy of spaffing money up the wall and turning on the spending taps.
But Labour might say that a "library crisis" is worthy of doing the same.
You have accepted that a crisis (economic in this case) justifies such borrowing. And other governments are therefore justified, by your own argument, in deeming other crises likewise worthy.
Once you have decided that a crisis is justification for such spending then lo there will be crises.
I'm still reeling from that poll from last night showing Trump is actually relatively popular with blacks and hispanic voters.
His problem is with whites.
Relative to what? 9% is terrible.
relative to other republican candidates. 9% of the black vote would actually be quite a good performance for a republican I believe.
Not at all, GOP candidates usually get around 30% of the minority vote. Trump is well below that level. It's the difference between him getting a second term and not. For every minority vote he has lost he hasn't gained one additional racist vote. His electoral strategy is absolutely terrible and it reflects what a terrible president he has been. He is a disgrace.
Economy definitely bouncing back. It feels better already. Just need Boris to man up a d reduce the distancing to 1m and open up the pubs.
Premature cheery optimism this early in the morning. You must be Boris Johnson!
No, just some data we got in this morning on order book values. It's much more positive than it was last month, plus just a sense that people are more confident than they were last month.
Whatever floats your boat. But I predict choppy seas ahead.
Of course - but some bit of the economy are doing OK, alongside others which are a smoking ruin. What business are you in, Max ?
City. But the data we get is from a group of representative manufacturing businesses in the UK.
Interesting, thanks. I get the impression that manufacturing (with some obvious exceptions) is doing OK.
I'm still reeling from that poll from last night showing Trump is actually relatively popular with blacks and hispanic voters.
His problem is with whites.
Relative to what? 9% is terrible.
relative to other republican candidates. 9% of the black vote would actually be quite a good performance for a republican I believe.
Not at all, GOP candidates usually get around 30% of the minority vote. Trump is well below that level. It's the difference between him getting a second term and not. For every minority vote he has lost he hasn't gained one additional racist vote. His electoral strategy is absolutely terrible and it reflects what a terrible president he has been. He is a disgrace.
Wrong, the last Republican to get even 10%+ of the black vote was George W Bush, 9% for Trump would be more than he got in 2016 of the black vote and more of the black vote than Romney and McCain got
The use of Swing Low in England rugby is errrr, a touch more complicated than people are making out.
Are you saying the cognoscenti sing it for one particular reason while the broad mass of unknowing fans sing it for another?
What are you talking about?
No, I'm saying the reason players/fans started singing it at all is a bit cringe inducing in its 'white guy singing the only "black" song they know' way.
Fans only knowing the first 2 lines as well is pretty naff.
Comments
Now if its mostly in outer suburbs, commuter towns and rural areas rather than big urban areas that has a political effect.
It may well be that the shake up the service sector might get in the 2020s will mostly hit Labour voting areas in the same way that the shake up manufacturing received in the 1980s mostly hit the then Labour voting areas.
https://twitter.com/trevorptweets/status/1273852003551232002?s=21
If Boris and his pals can prevent economic armageddon, you are right, the guys is a genius.
Labour actually needs to spend a period in opposition getting ready for Government instead of just talking to itself. At least the current leadership seems to actually look at the polls as opposed to ignoring them and hoping it will turn around like the last one.
The report is spot on, we treated 2017 like a victory when we should have treated it like a loss. Corbyn should have stepped down in 2017, 2018, or 2019 (the latter I did originally call for but I accept I didn't stick with it) and Starmer should have taken over. Starmer vs May would have lead to a Labour minority Government and Brexit being stopped without any GE.
Labour made so many mistakes, mistake after mistake. And that can only be put down to a leadership that really had no idea about how to strategise.
If as suggested the government is going to change the 2m distancing it does know this is going to cost business and industry £lots doesn't it? All the signs, markers, decals etc etc will need replacing. Surely - given that we're not getting the virus down fast enough and don't have track and trace in place as the PM himself set out that we MUST do - he can't be desperate enough to go "ah spaff it" and just arbitrarily change the thing anyway?
Yes, of course he is. But just as with the schools I don't think he will take most of the population with him. Despite the froth and the attacks on teachers it is PARENTS who aren't prepared to send their kids back yet. If we suddenly decide "its fine, go back to normal" I can't see everyone shrugging their shoulders and doing so. Not when "the virus is under control go back to normal" is ravaging the dumber states in America and UK remains banned from international travel because we still have the pox.
And has wasted it.
They need to win Tory seats, why do they not get this
So, yes, a massive bounce back, but with so far fallen we need to do more than set a new quarterly record.
If that change was too onerous for a business they could keep their own buildings at 2m.
Non of this will heal the damage but it should mitigate it
Which gives us the UK. Well, England. Scotland says we can't come. Wales says we can't comeNI says we can late July maybe. So Skeggy is an option. Or go to Ulster and visit the beautiful Antrim coast. But further afield? We get to sit this one out, listening to tossers lie about the track and trace app we needed to reopen whilst foreigners we believe to be beneath us enjoy holidays. That is the point when the government really gets unpopular...
I support the economy in the wake of a global economic shock.
You trash the public finances and leave the country saddled with debt.
The tragedy is that Labour are probably too honest to play this game like the Tories did in 2010.
Decisions like this have always been about the risks and costs of now vs tomorrow and the factors have shifted. It's why people pushing the same extreme economic solutions at all like communists or fanatical libertarians are so dumb.
"Germany has been more sensible. Its route out of lockdown has been to relax controls as long as the virus stays below a certain level in each region: 50 infections in a week for every 100,000 people."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/06/18/threat-has-passed-civil-liberties-still-suspended/
Nowhere in UK has that number apparently
Brookes tries, but just isn't very good.
They had a chap who did that quite well for a time. What on earth was his name?
I have said here on many occasions, if was never Corbyn's dream to be elected Prime Minister. Corbyn is a man who desires power without responsibility. He achieved this through protest, and better still protest against people who purport to be on his side, like Blair.
Corbyn's legacy is a deep distrust of metropolitan liberals. Starmer, unfortunately also fits that bill. In reality so is Johnson but he pretends to be otherwise. But don't worry about that. Don't worry either about the allegation regularly made here that Starmer has no charm or charisma. If the economy tanks like never before (and I can't see how that is avoidable) charm and charisma are the least of our worries.
What business are you in, Max ?
Until the general election campaign when they will try to scare the voters with a tale of how Labour will wreck the economy the Tories rescued by borrowing too much.
https://www.building.co.uk/news/london-contractor-offers-covid-19-antibody-test-to-staff-and-suppliers/5106546.article
VAT receipts fell by half, but some of that will get paid first quarter next year (by me, too - if I'm still around).
As for your last paragraph Scotland is due to open for tourism mid july and Drakeford is really being attacked now over his driving restriction to 5 miles and North Wales holiday organisation and it's parks are demanding to be allowed to open from mid july. It is expected he will have no choice but to agree
As far as your loaded statement about 'foreigners' the quarantine to Europe is likely to go by mid july but not the rest of the world
This forum seems to predict the unpopularity of HMG daily and of course Boris is gifting many own goals, but do not underestimate the ability of the conservative party to change leaders and win elections
@Cyclefree 's daughter might get some decent business in the late summer ?
The Tories took over in 2010.
The shock was already over by then. The UK was growing in 2010 and grew every single year for a decade until 2020.
Borrowing in 2007/8 for the shock is reasonable. Borrowing insane amounts years later would not be.
Indeed if our '5 step' alert level isn't designed to trigger between levels at various outputs of that function then what the hell is it based on ?
One man's crisis is another's BAU. Once you get to choose the crisis (by being in government) you can justify anything.
Yeh, a ban.That'll work with 1000s of beered-up fans.
Great idea.
Bonkers.
That's not the case with writing blank cheques for permanent things. I'm assuming you don't want the library open temporarily? If you want the library permanently open you need to be able to afford it.
Edit: Apparently Cummings is a gift too, so there is at least one part of the community that regrets his current disappearance from the front pages.
Rule Brittania at the last night of the Proms ?
Now most of that LD vote has returned to Labour under Starmer
"Hasn't been" in the question and it's a slam dunk.
His problem is with whites.
I would say this means the UK has some limited room for easing off, but not a lot. Bear in mind Germany has eased off its lockdowns already and it still has lower infection rates.
Instead of wanting to fly abroad at higher than normal cost and with more than normal restrictions people would be better advised to get their own finances in order, improve their skillsets and improve their health.
Good news for Biden in the rustbelt with the white working class but also for Trump. For example the Republican who won the highest share of the white vote since 2000 was Romney but Romney stilll narrowly lost, George W Bush won
What are you talking about?
Layla will at least get media attention, as she is a natural on camera, and getting noticed is important.
Lib Dems are a democratic party so we will see how many of these ideas get adopted. It is a bit castles on clouds as I think it very unlikely to be a LD majority government, but a bit of rapprochement with Labour, and a willingness to tactically vote (in both directions) is a key to ending Tory rule. I think both LD and Labour know in their hearts that is true.
I specifically said an economic crisis as opposed to "times of growth". After the recession the deficit will need to be resolved.
Get a hold of their plans, change the boilerplate so Muscles & Co can present it as theirs at the daily pressers, and then implement rigorously, checking back with Berlin on a regular basis to make sure we're doing it right.
If they insist on a fee? Fine. We can pay them in fish.
Re Hispanics, many view themselves as white and there is a huge social difference depending on how light your skin colour, your ancestry etc between the different groups.
One thing that hasn't been mentioned much about what is happening with BLM is that it risks - for the Democrats - fracturing the Black / Hispanic coalition. The two communities don't have the best relations. Check out what is happening in New Mexico at the moment with BLM and Native Indian activists on one side and Hispanics on the other side fighting over the statues to the Conquistadores.
Re whites, it is an issue for Trump but I suspect he will be secretly very happy with the two Supreme Court decisions this week. It will fire up his base and strengthen his argument to evangelicals and Catholics (the latter are particularly worried about lawsuits in the light of the LGBTQ decision) that more works needs to be done on the Supreme Court with Roberts having gone "rogue". It is entirely possible you could have four Justices need to be replaced in the next Presidential term.
But Labour might say that a "library crisis" is worthy of doing the same.
You have accepted that a crisis (economic in this case) justifies such borrowing. And other governments are therefore justified, by your own argument, in deeming other crises likewise worthy.
Once you have decided that a crisis is justification for such spending then lo there will be crises.
I get the impression that manufacturing (with some obvious exceptions) is doing OK.
Fans only knowing the first 2 lines as well is pretty naff.