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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s Tories still ahead with Opinium but he’s a net 30% b

SystemSystem Posts: 12,169
edited June 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s Tories still ahead with Opinium but he’s a net 30% behind in the approval ratings

Tories make slight recovery in Opinium voting intention but the contrast with a month ago is stark pic.twitter.com/wUUUcW1cF6

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    primo
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,118
    edited June 2020
    Boris going to need to get a grip...we are now way beyond a mob ripping down a statue. Covid is so last month

    https://twitter.com/jamiemacwhirter/status/1271847616637272064?s=19

    https://twitter.com/Tom_Norm/status/1271832403070377986?s=19
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,118
    Is anybody going to be surprised if it all kicks off again next weekend?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599
    Average of the 5 most recent opinion polls.

    Con 43.0%
    Lab 37.8%
    LD 7.8%
    SNP 4.8%
    Grn 2.8%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    LAB still looking good for 2nd GE 2024. Not sure why we are worrying about opinion polls now.

    Sort the Corona>deal with the hard left thugs>end the lockdown.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Is anybody going to be surprised if it all kicks off again next weekend?

    Footballs back. Live Premier League from 12.30-22.00. It will be quieter.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    Ave_it said:

    LAB still looking good for 2nd GE 2024. Not sure why we are worrying about opinion polls now.

    Sort the Corona>deal with the hard left thugs>end the lockdown.

    You haven't been paying attention, for months now Mike has been telling you the key metric for the next GE is the personal approval polling.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    edited June 2020
    Personally I am surprised crossover hasn't happened yet

    Boris figures nose diving is no surprise

    Will it change anything, I doubt it.

    However. Boris, Patel, Khan and the Met have to get together and stop these weekend fracas

    If need be close down central London for the next few weekends
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,118
    edited June 2020
    eadric said:

    An alleged stabbing. Who knows. The beatings are bad enough

    twitter.com/ANG83503664/status/1271888098616541189?s=20

    I can see the narrative already. All the sundays carry the yob peeing next to the memorial to the killed police officer and carry lots of footage of the football holigans attacking the police earlier in the day. And there is widespread condemnation.

    The ramble rousers will share around the videos of white individuals being beaten by black mob and say look at this and all the bias media talk about is the other stuff.

    And next weekend back for round 2. Boris, Khan and Met need to close this down ASAP.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    eadric said:

    An alleged stabbing. Who knows. The beatings are bad enough

    https://twitter.com/ANG83503664/status/1271888098616541189?s=20

    I wouldn't trust the word of a person who uses the phrase "patriot protestors".

    I'd be curious to see something legitimate.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Mexicanpete said:

    Ave_it said:

    LAB still looking good for 2nd GE 2024. Not sure why we are worrying about opinion polls now.

    Sort the Corona>deal with the hard left thugs>end the lockdown.

    You haven't been paying attention, for months now Mike has been telling you the key metric for the next GE is the personal approval polling.
    Let's see shall we? Virtually all the headers on this site are anti CON but we keep winning elections!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited June 2020
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Personally I am surprised crossover hasn't happened yet

    Boris figures nose diving is no surprise

    Will it change anything, I doubt it.

    However. Boris, Patel, Khan and the Met have to get together and stop these weekend fracas

    If need be close down central London for the next few weekends

    Football's Coming Home.

    Nine hours of live football should keep some people inside and occupied.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Personally I am surprised crossover hasn't happened yet

    Boris figures nose diving is no surprise

    Will it change anything, I doubt it.

    However. Boris, Patel, Khan and the Met have to get together and stop these weekend fracas

    If need be close down central London for the next few weekends

    No the polls will stabilise, and if anything the Conservatives should retain a slightly bigger lead, maybe up to 10. That lead will slowly diminish over the months as the realities seet in.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Personally I am surprised crossover hasn't happened yet

    Boris figures nose diving is no surprise

    Will it change anything, I doubt it.

    However. Boris, Patel, Khan and the Met have to get together and stop these weekend fracas

    If need be close down central London for the next few weekends

    No need to involve Khan. Boris, Priti and police need to take action now to close this down like we did in the 2011 riots.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,118
    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1271875790242828289?s=19
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1271875790242828289?s=19

    Well said.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Personally I am surprised crossover hasn't happened yet

    Boris figures nose diving is no surprise

    Will it change anything, I doubt it.

    However. Boris, Patel, Khan and the Met have to get together and stop these weekend fracas

    If need be close down central London for the next few weekends

    Football's Coming Home.

    Nine hours of live football should keep some people inside and occupied.
    Does any aspect of this afternoon's events make you think you might be a bit of a twerp?
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    Net approval is good for Starmer (on some metrics best since Blair) however the PM ratings, where Starmer and Johnson are roughly tied are pretty similar to where Corbyn was against May in Summer 2017 just after that election.

    That still suggests the 2017 result could be a a ceiling in terms of votes and seats for Labour.

    To be narrowly the largest party at the next election which is still 4 years away realistically Starmer would probably need a consistent lead of around +10 on best PM but that would also require the Tories suffering substantial seat losses to the Lib Dems which is not yet forthcoming.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    IshmaelZ said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Personally I am surprised crossover hasn't happened yet

    Boris figures nose diving is no surprise

    Will it change anything, I doubt it.

    However. Boris, Patel, Khan and the Met have to get together and stop these weekend fracas

    If need be close down central London for the next few weekends

    Football's Coming Home.

    Nine hours of live football should keep some people inside and occupied.
    Does any aspect of this afternoon's events make you think you might be a bit of a twerp?
    No.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    Mexicanpete said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Personally I am surprised crossover hasn't happened yet

    Boris figures nose diving is no surprise

    Will it change anything, I doubt it.

    However. Boris, Patel, Khan and the Met have to get together and stop these weekend fracas

    If need be close down central London for the next few weekends

    No the polls will stabilise, and if anything the Conservatives should retain a slightly bigger lead, maybe up to 10. That lead will slowly diminish over the months as the realities seet in.
    I have to say that stating with any certainty the result of 2024 is for the dreamers

    I have no idea and am not at all sure Boris will fight it

    The next 6 months are going to be a rollercoaster and to be honest I wish all the politicians the best in plotting the way through, even to next summer

    I am pleased though that Starmer leads labour if for nothing else he is making Corbyn history and that history will not be kind to Corbyn or his labour years
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    From the last thread - England cases by specimen date

    image

    I am starting to think the government is playing a game - the lagged numbers will suddenly collapse at the end of the epidemic. But look big until really quite close to the end...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    I do think those going out looking for violence are twerps though.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    Ave_it said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Personally I am surprised crossover hasn't happened yet

    Boris figures nose diving is no surprise

    Will it change anything, I doubt it.

    However. Boris, Patel, Khan and the Met have to get together and stop these weekend fracas

    If need be close down central London for the next few weekends

    No need to involve Khan. Boris, Priti and police need to take action now to close this down like we did in the 2011 riots.
    Of course you have to include Khan, he is London's mayor with responsibility for policing
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,555
    edited June 2020
    Obviously none of this polling tells you anything about the next election. What it does suggest, IMHO, is that Boris's position as popular leader is fragile, and much will depend on how Brexit goes, assuming that at some point before 2024 C 19 is a thing of the past; but he still has a broadly electable party.

    SKS is clearly personally electable and could be just the man for the moment when boring and honest competence is required, indeed he would appear to have no rival in that under crowded field . Labour is behind because his party has not proved itself electable, with a number of MPs and members who seem to lack the basic credential of being a (small L) centrist liberal. for example it still has Richard Burgon in it, and I am sure there will be a constituency somewhere dying to lose the next election by appointing Laura Pidcock as candidate. Oh yes, RLB is on the front bench. There is more to do before they can be the sort of party that stormed its way to electability in 1997 and onwards. Now what on earth was the name of that leader chappie in those days?...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Ave_it said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Personally I am surprised crossover hasn't happened yet

    Boris figures nose diving is no surprise

    Will it change anything, I doubt it.

    However. Boris, Patel, Khan and the Met have to get together and stop these weekend fracas

    If need be close down central London for the next few weekends

    No need to involve Khan. Boris, Priti and police need to take action now to close this down like we did in the 2011 riots.
    Khan needs to be made to own these riots. He encouraged them.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Ave_it said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Personally I am surprised crossover hasn't happened yet

    Boris figures nose diving is no surprise

    Will it change anything, I doubt it.

    However. Boris, Patel, Khan and the Met have to get together and stop these weekend fracas

    If need be close down central London for the next few weekends

    No need to involve Khan. Boris, Priti and police need to take action now to close this down like we did in the 2011 riots.
    Of course you have to include Khan, he is London's mayor with responsibility for policing
    I live in London. I, like most sensible Londoners, know it's best not to involve Khan with anything! He is an extreme left winger. He encourages division.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,118
    edited June 2020
    MaxPB said:

    Ave_it said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Personally I am surprised crossover hasn't happened yet

    Boris figures nose diving is no surprise

    Will it change anything, I doubt it.

    However. Boris, Patel, Khan and the Met have to get together and stop these weekend fracas

    If need be close down central London for the next few weekends

    No need to involve Khan. Boris, Priti and police need to take action now to close this down like we did in the 2011 riots.
    Khan needs to be made to own these riots. He encouraged them.
    He is expert at going missing when shit gets real, but all over the tv when easy hit such as blast Trump.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    Philip_Thompson said:

    I do think those going out looking for violence are twerps though.

    Multiply by 100x for people "going equipped"
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    edited June 2020
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ave_it said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Personally I am surprised crossover hasn't happened yet

    Boris figures nose diving is no surprise

    Will it change anything, I doubt it.

    However. Boris, Patel, Khan and the Met have to get together and stop these weekend fracas

    If need be close down central London for the next few weekends

    No need to involve Khan. Boris, Priti and police need to take action now to close this down like we did in the 2011 riots.
    Khan needs to be made to own these riots. He encouraged them.
    He is expert at going missing when shit gets real, but all over the tv when easy hit such as blast Trump.
    Yes his "you can't get Coronavirus on the tube" comments needs to be pinned to his forehead.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Looking at the graphs I have been making comparing VI, NS and Personality ratings, the closest parallel with the current situation (5-6 point Govt VI lead, 30 pt LotO NS lead, 30pt PM personality lead) is Blair vs Howard (?) around November 2003-June 2004

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    Ave_it said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Ave_it said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Personally I am surprised crossover hasn't happened yet

    Boris figures nose diving is no surprise

    Will it change anything, I doubt it.

    However. Boris, Patel, Khan and the Met have to get together and stop these weekend fracas

    If need be close down central London for the next few weekends

    No need to involve Khan. Boris, Priti and police need to take action now to close this down like we did in the 2011 riots.
    Of course you have to include Khan, he is London's mayor with responsibility for policing
    I live in London. I, like most sensible Londoners, know it's best not to involve Khan with anything! He is an extreme left winger. He encourages division.
    He is elected

    I consider him to be one of London's worse mayors but until he is out of office he remains in charge of the Met
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775
    How can it be the case that there are people in the UK that when confronted by a police line don't just walk away?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Ave_it said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Ave_it said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Personally I am surprised crossover hasn't happened yet

    Boris figures nose diving is no surprise

    Will it change anything, I doubt it.

    However. Boris, Patel, Khan and the Met have to get together and stop these weekend fracas

    If need be close down central London for the next few weekends

    No need to involve Khan. Boris, Priti and police need to take action now to close this down like we did in the 2011 riots.
    Of course you have to include Khan, he is London's mayor with responsibility for policing
    I live in London. I, like most sensible Londoners, know it's best not to involve Khan with anything! He is an extreme left winger. He encourages division.
    He is elected

    I consider him to be one of London's worse mayors but until he is out of office he remains in charge of the Met
    Democracy runs both ways.

    You can't claim to respect the law and not accept he's involved.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    Malmesbury said:

    From the last thread - England cases by specimen date

    image

    I am starting to think the government is playing a game - the lagged numbers will suddenly collapse at the end of the epidemic. But look big until really quite close to the end...

    "VE day will cause a second wave"
    "Stay alert will cause a second wave"
    "People in parks will cause a second wave"
    "Dominic Cummings will cause a second wave"
    "People at the seaside will cause a second wave"
    "People going back to work will cause a second wave"

    WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,118
    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1271871738423447553?s=19
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Ave_it said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Ave_it said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Personally I am surprised crossover hasn't happened yet

    Boris figures nose diving is no surprise

    Will it change anything, I doubt it.

    However. Boris, Patel, Khan and the Met have to get together and stop these weekend fracas

    If need be close down central London for the next few weekends

    No need to involve Khan. Boris, Priti and police need to take action now to close this down like we did in the 2011 riots.
    Of course you have to include Khan, he is London's mayor with responsibility for policing
    I live in London. I, like most sensible Londoners, know it's best not to involve Khan with anything! He is an extreme left winger. He encourages division.
    He is elected

    I consider him to be one of London's worse mayors but until he is out of office he remains in charge of the Met
    He is also supposedly responsible for TFL but the government has had to effectively take that off him after bailing out the £1.6bn deficit.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,118
    This guys thread looking spot on so far.

    https://twitter.com/KonstantinKisin/status/1270711803597615111?s=19
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,555
    Serious question: How is BLM movement getting on in the continent of Africa? At a glance both left and right wing media have ignored this rather crucial continent altogether. Anyone got any information?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    another_richard said:

    Malmesbury said:

    From the last thread - England cases by specimen date

    image

    I am starting to think the government is playing a game - the lagged numbers will suddenly collapse at the end of the epidemic. But look big until really quite close to the end...

    "VE day will cause a second wave"
    "Stay alert will cause a second wave"
    "People in parks will cause a second wave"
    "Dominic Cummings will cause a second wave"
    "People at the seaside will cause a second wave"
    "People going back to work will cause a second wave"

    WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG
    "BLM protests will case a second wave"

    *Cough*

    For the record I said these protests shouldn't happen because of the virus and I wouldn't join them because of it even if I respect those who do.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1271871738423447553?s=19

    Also well said.
  • ManchesterKurtManchesterKurt Posts: 921
    another_richard said:

    Malmesbury said:

    From the last thread - England cases by specimen date

    image

    I am starting to think the government is playing a game - the lagged numbers will suddenly collapse at the end of the epidemic. But look big until really quite close to the end...

    "VE day will cause a second wave"
    "Stay alert will cause a second wave"
    "People in parks will cause a second wave"
    "Dominic Cummings will cause a second wave"
    "People at the seaside will cause a second wave"
    "People going back to work will cause a second wave"

    WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG
    Seems that catching C-19 outside is practically impossible.

    Need to be totally rid of it before the autumn arrives.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775
    edited June 2020
    another_richard said:

    Malmesbury said:

    From the last thread - England cases by specimen date

    image

    I am starting to think the government is playing a game - the lagged numbers will suddenly collapse at the end of the epidemic. But look big until really quite close to the end...

    "VE day will cause a second wave"
    "Stay alert will cause a second wave"
    "People in parks will cause a second wave"
    "Dominic Cummings will cause a second wave"
    "People at the seaside will cause a second wave"
    "People going back to work will cause a second wave"

    WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG
    Most of these factors were flagged ahead of time and therefore the public may well have responded so that the risk was averted.

    I think you can certainly lose most of the caps, and probably many of the conclusions.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,118
    edited June 2020
    Philip_Thompson said:

    another_richard said:

    Malmesbury said:

    From the last thread - England cases by specimen date

    image

    I am starting to think the government is playing a game - the lagged numbers will suddenly collapse at the end of the epidemic. But look big until really quite close to the end...

    "VE day will cause a second wave"
    "Stay alert will cause a second wave"
    "People in parks will cause a second wave"
    "Dominic Cummings will cause a second wave"
    "People at the seaside will cause a second wave"
    "People going back to work will cause a second wave"

    WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG
    "BLM protests will case a second wave"

    *Cough*

    For the record I said these protests shouldn't happen because of the virus and I wouldn't join them because of it even if I respect those who do.
    Well definite evidence of significant rise in cases in many US cities that have had big protests. Miami is up 4x, Portland 10x (albeit from a tiny level). California was 2x (although dropped down a bit now, but still above previous levels).

    NYC is the best exception.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1271871738423447553?s=19

    Rules aren't made to be broken, but guidelines are made to be breached.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    Omnium said:

    another_richard said:

    Malmesbury said:

    From the last thread - England cases by specimen date

    image

    I am starting to think the government is playing a game - the lagged numbers will suddenly collapse at the end of the epidemic. But look big until really quite close to the end...

    "VE day will cause a second wave"
    "Stay alert will cause a second wave"
    "People in parks will cause a second wave"
    "Dominic Cummings will cause a second wave"
    "People at the seaside will cause a second wave"
    "People going back to work will cause a second wave"

    WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG
    Most of these factors were flagged ahead of time and therefore the public may well have responded so that the risk was averted.

    I think you can certainly lose most of the caps, and probably many of the conclusions.
    Yet we continually told on PB that all those things would cause a second wave.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,118
    edited June 2020
    eadric said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    This guys thread looking spot on so far.

    https://twitter.com/KonstantinKisin/status/1270711803597615111?s=19

    Yes, that's a brilliant analysis, even if I still hope he is wrong
    I see twitter has decided that well those getting beaten by a mob of 30+ youths deserved it. In a week, we have gone from mob pulls statue down, well it deserved it, to beating people based on race, because well they deserved...
  • BantermanBanterman Posts: 287
    eadric said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    eadric said:

    An alleged stabbing. Who knows. The beatings are bad enough

    twitter.com/ANG83503664/status/1271888098616541189?s=20

    I can see the narrative already. All the sundays carry the yob peeing next to the memorial to the killed police officer and carry lots of footage of the football holigans attacking the police earlier in the day. And there is widespread condemnation.

    The ramble rousers will share around the videos of white individuals being beaten by black mob and say look at this and all the bias media talk about is the other stuff.

    And next weekend back for round 2. Boris, Khan and Met need to close this down ASAP.
    Having now witnessed the reality of these riots, it is fascinating to compare them to what the MSM report

    Like, for some of them, there seems to be some mystery as to whether BLM were even in Trafalgar Square or not.

    This is farcical. I saw it with my own eyes. Several hundred angry protestors all carrying BLM-esque placards, and some of them were intent on horrible violence. I saw BLM supporters hunt down lone whites and attack them in quite cowardly ways: I saw it.

    And it's not like I was the only observer. There were dozens of journalists, photographers, etc.

    The TV lies, and the papers lie. I know this is not that shocking, but to do it this blatantly is remarkable: to me

    Something seriously wrong with UK broadcast media at the moment. They all have become Corbynista's. It's pretty disgusting to see.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Andy_JS said:

    Average of the 5 most recent opinion polls.

    Con 43.0%
    Lab 37.8%
    LD 7.8%
    SNP 4.8%
    Grn 2.8%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Labour is already close to 40% in the polls. There is every prospect of the party being in the 45% - 50% range later in the Parliament.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775
    edited June 2020
    another_richard said:

    Omnium said:

    another_richard said:

    Malmesbury said:

    From the last thread - England cases by specimen date

    image

    I am starting to think the government is playing a game - the lagged numbers will suddenly collapse at the end of the epidemic. But look big until really quite close to the end...

    "VE day will cause a second wave"
    "Stay alert will cause a second wave"
    "People in parks will cause a second wave"
    "Dominic Cummings will cause a second wave"
    "People at the seaside will cause a second wave"
    "People going back to work will cause a second wave"

    WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG
    Most of these factors were flagged ahead of time and therefore the public may well have responded so that the risk was averted.

    I think you can certainly lose most of the caps, and probably many of the conclusions.
    Yet we continually told on PB that all those things would cause a second wave.
    Yes, but we weren't told on PB uniquely - these thoughts were well known, and not only that they were at least in part accepted. As such they will have been acted upon. So you can't possibly say that this was crying wolf, because you don't know what the wolf would have done if the cry had not gone up.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599
    justin124 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Average of the 5 most recent opinion polls.

    Con 43.0%
    Lab 37.8%
    LD 7.8%
    SNP 4.8%
    Grn 2.8%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Labour is already close to 40% in the polls. There is every prospect of the party being in the 45% - 50% range later in the Parliament.
    Very likely.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Mexicanpete said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Personally I am surprised crossover hasn't happened yet

    Boris figures nose diving is no surprise

    Will it change anything, I doubt it.

    However. Boris, Patel, Khan and the Met have to get together and stop these weekend fracas

    If need be close down central London for the next few weekends

    No the polls will stabilise, and if anything the Conservatives should retain a slightly bigger lead, maybe up to 10. That lead will slowly diminish over the months as the realities seet in.
    I suspect that the Tories are still being flattered to an extent by the ongoing sense of crisis in the background which keeps normal politics at bay.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    justin124 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Average of the 5 most recent opinion polls.

    Con 43.0%
    Lab 37.8%
    LD 7.8%
    SNP 4.8%
    Grn 2.8%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Labour is already close to 40% in the polls. There is every prospect of the party being in the 45% - 50% range later in the Parliament.
    You are one of the dreamers I referred to earlier

    Predicting polls going forward is for those who wish them to come about

    Others like myself say I have not got a clue
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    justin124 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Average of the 5 most recent opinion polls.

    Con 43.0%
    Lab 37.8%
    LD 7.8%
    SNP 4.8%
    Grn 2.8%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Labour is already close to 40% in the polls. There is every prospect of the party being in the 45% - 50% range later in the Parliament.
    Just as EdM managed.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    Banterman said:

    eadric said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    eadric said:

    An alleged stabbing. Who knows. The beatings are bad enough

    twitter.com/ANG83503664/status/1271888098616541189?s=20

    I can see the narrative already. All the sundays carry the yob peeing next to the memorial to the killed police officer and carry lots of footage of the football holigans attacking the police earlier in the day. And there is widespread condemnation.

    The ramble rousers will share around the videos of white individuals being beaten by black mob and say look at this and all the bias media talk about is the other stuff.

    And next weekend back for round 2. Boris, Khan and Met need to close this down ASAP.
    Having now witnessed the reality of these riots, it is fascinating to compare them to what the MSM report

    Like, for some of them, there seems to be some mystery as to whether BLM were even in Trafalgar Square or not.

    This is farcical. I saw it with my own eyes. Several hundred angry protestors all carrying BLM-esque placards, and some of them were intent on horrible violence. I saw BLM supporters hunt down lone whites and attack them in quite cowardly ways: I saw it.

    And it's not like I was the only observer. There were dozens of journalists, photographers, etc.

    The TV lies, and the papers lie. I know this is not that shocking, but to do it this blatantly is remarkable: to me

    Something seriously wrong with UK broadcast media at the moment. They all have become Corbynista's. It's pretty disgusting to see.
    Sky has been on the left for sometime now but they have got worse, much worse, and it says something when I can say the BBC seem more balanced
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    justin124 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Average of the 5 most recent opinion polls.

    Con 43.0%
    Lab 37.8%
    LD 7.8%
    SNP 4.8%
    Grn 2.8%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Labour is already close to 40% in the polls. There is every prospect of the party being in the 45% - 50% range later in the Parliament.
    You are one of the dreamers I referred to earlier

    Predicting polls going forward is for those who wish them to come about

    Others like myself say I have not got a clue
    You're saying he's a dreamer, but he's not the only one?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,118
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Banterman said:

    eadric said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    eadric said:

    An alleged stabbing. Who knows. The beatings are bad enough

    twitter.com/ANG83503664/status/1271888098616541189?s=20

    I can see the narrative already. All the sundays carry the yob peeing next to the memorial to the killed police officer and carry lots of footage of the football holigans attacking the police earlier in the day. And there is widespread condemnation.

    The ramble rousers will share around the videos of white individuals being beaten by black mob and say look at this and all the bias media talk about is the other stuff.

    And next weekend back for round 2. Boris, Khan and Met need to close this down ASAP.
    Having now witnessed the reality of these riots, it is fascinating to compare them to what the MSM report

    Like, for some of them, there seems to be some mystery as to whether BLM were even in Trafalgar Square or not.

    This is farcical. I saw it with my own eyes. Several hundred angry protestors all carrying BLM-esque placards, and some of them were intent on horrible violence. I saw BLM supporters hunt down lone whites and attack them in quite cowardly ways: I saw it.

    And it's not like I was the only observer. There were dozens of journalists, photographers, etc.

    The TV lies, and the papers lie. I know this is not that shocking, but to do it this blatantly is remarkable: to me

    Something seriously wrong with UK broadcast media at the moment. They all have become Corbynista's. It's pretty disgusting to see.
    Sky has been on the left for sometime now but they have got worse, much worse, and it says something when I can say the BBC seem more balanced
    Sky leading lights suffer terrible Brexit / Boris derangement syndrome.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Stereotomy said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1271871738423447553?s=19

    Rules aren't made to be broken, but guidelines are made to be breached.
    (My point here being why on earth is he using such weak language. If he actually wants this to be kept to, it has to be more than a "guideline")
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,118
    Interesting editing from Sky

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1271901797658083328?s=19
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Gary_Burton said:

    Net approval is good for Starmer (on some metrics best since Blair) however the PM ratings, where Starmer and Johnson are roughly tied are pretty similar to where Corbyn was against May in Summer 2017 just after that election.

    That still suggests the 2017 result could be a a ceiling in terms of votes and seats for Labour.

    To be narrowly the largest party at the next election which is still 4 years away realistically Starmer would probably need a consistent lead of around +10 on best PM but that would also require the Tories suffering substantial seat losses to the Lib Dems which is not yet forthcoming.

    But almost invariably , an incumbent government a mere six months following a big election win tends to be performing better in the polls than at the subsequent general election. That was true of the Parliaments of 2001 - 1997 - 1987 - 1966 - and 1959. That is probably even more likely today due to the Covid crisis boost national governments have enjoyed.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    Omnium said:

    another_richard said:

    Omnium said:

    another_richard said:

    Malmesbury said:

    From the last thread - England cases by specimen date

    image

    I am starting to think the government is playing a game - the lagged numbers will suddenly collapse at the end of the epidemic. But look big until really quite close to the end...

    "VE day will cause a second wave"
    "Stay alert will cause a second wave"
    "People in parks will cause a second wave"
    "Dominic Cummings will cause a second wave"
    "People at the seaside will cause a second wave"
    "People going back to work will cause a second wave"

    WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG
    Most of these factors were flagged ahead of time and therefore the public may well have responded so that the risk was averted.

    I think you can certainly lose most of the caps, and probably many of the conclusions.
    Yet we continually told on PB that all those things would cause a second wave.
    Yes, but we weren't told on PB uniquely - these thoughts were well known, and not only that they were at least in part accepted. As such they will have been acted upon. So you can't possibly say that this was crying wolf, because you don't know what the wolf would have done if the cry had not gone up.
    But the claims, with the exception of Stay Alert and Cummings, were all retrospective.

    People had already gone to VE parties / parks / seaside / work.

    While Stay Alert and Cummings were supposed to lead to a breakdown of all social distancing.

    The second wave mongers and lockdown headbangers have been shown to be wrong.

    Something which we should all be thankful for.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Banterman said:

    eadric said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    eadric said:

    An alleged stabbing. Who knows. The beatings are bad enough

    twitter.com/ANG83503664/status/1271888098616541189?s=20

    I can see the narrative already. All the sundays carry the yob peeing next to the memorial to the killed police officer and carry lots of footage of the football holigans attacking the police earlier in the day. And there is widespread condemnation.

    The ramble rousers will share around the videos of white individuals being beaten by black mob and say look at this and all the bias media talk about is the other stuff.

    And next weekend back for round 2. Boris, Khan and Met need to close this down ASAP.
    Having now witnessed the reality of these riots, it is fascinating to compare them to what the MSM report

    Like, for some of them, there seems to be some mystery as to whether BLM were even in Trafalgar Square or not.

    This is farcical. I saw it with my own eyes. Several hundred angry protestors all carrying BLM-esque placards, and some of them were intent on horrible violence. I saw BLM supporters hunt down lone whites and attack them in quite cowardly ways: I saw it.

    And it's not like I was the only observer. There were dozens of journalists, photographers, etc.

    The TV lies, and the papers lie. I know this is not that shocking, but to do it this blatantly is remarkable: to me

    Something seriously wrong with UK broadcast media at the moment. They all have become Corbynista's. It's pretty disgusting to see.
    Sky has been on the left for sometime now but they have got worse, much worse, and it says something when I can say the BBC seem more balanced
    Sky leading lights suffer terrible Brexit / Boris derangement syndrome.
    I agree.

    Adam Boulton's twitter feed confirms that and the times he sits and seeths when discussing brexit is really rather amusing
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878
    algarkirk said:

    Serious question: How is BLM movement getting on in the continent of Africa? At a glance both left and right wing media have ignored this rather crucial continent altogether. Anyone got any information?

    They seem active in Brazil, different continent, I know.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Banterman said:

    eadric said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    eadric said:

    An alleged stabbing. Who knows. The beatings are bad enough

    twitter.com/ANG83503664/status/1271888098616541189?s=20

    I can see the narrative already. All the sundays carry the yob peeing next to the memorial to the killed police officer and carry lots of footage of the football holigans attacking the police earlier in the day. And there is widespread condemnation.

    The ramble rousers will share around the videos of white individuals being beaten by black mob and say look at this and all the bias media talk about is the other stuff.

    And next weekend back for round 2. Boris, Khan and Met need to close this down ASAP.
    Having now witnessed the reality of these riots, it is fascinating to compare them to what the MSM report

    Like, for some of them, there seems to be some mystery as to whether BLM were even in Trafalgar Square or not.

    This is farcical. I saw it with my own eyes. Several hundred angry protestors all carrying BLM-esque placards, and some of them were intent on horrible violence. I saw BLM supporters hunt down lone whites and attack them in quite cowardly ways: I saw it.

    And it's not like I was the only observer. There were dozens of journalists, photographers, etc.

    The TV lies, and the papers lie. I know this is not that shocking, but to do it this blatantly is remarkable: to me

    Something seriously wrong with UK broadcast media at the moment. They all have become Corbynista's. It's pretty disgusting to see.
    Sky has been on the left for sometime now but they have got worse, much worse, and it says something when I can say the BBC seem more balanced
    Sky leading lights suffer terrible Brexit / Boris derangement syndrome.
    Brexit is the biggest symptom of EU derangement syndrome.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357
    Andy_JS said:

    Average of the 5 most recent opinion polls.

    Con 43.0%
    Lab 37.8%
    LD 7.8%
    SNP 4.8%
    Grn 2.8%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    I see the SNP are unpopular NOT, when will we see the Tory surge that makes Carcrash FM
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    justin124 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Average of the 5 most recent opinion polls.

    Con 43.0%
    Lab 37.8%
    LD 7.8%
    SNP 4.8%
    Grn 2.8%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Labour is already close to 40% in the polls. There is every prospect of the party being in the 45% - 50% range later in the Parliament.
    You are one of the dreamers I referred to earlier

    Predicting polls going forward is for those who wish them to come about

    Others like myself say I have not got a clue
    Not at all - it is very unlikely that support for the main Opposition party peaks so early in a Parliament.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775
    Stereotomy said:

    Stereotomy said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1271871738423447553?s=19

    Rules aren't made to be broken, but guidelines are made to be breached.
    (My point here being why on earth is he using such weak language. If he actually wants this to be kept to, it has to be more than a "guideline")
    Because you can't be locked up over a guideline and he's not sure he's got it sufficiently right to make laws.

  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Omnium said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Stereotomy said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1271871738423447553?s=19

    Rules aren't made to be broken, but guidelines are made to be breached.
    (My point here being why on earth is he using such weak language. If he actually wants this to be kept to, it has to be more than a "guideline")
    Because you can't be locked up over a guideline and he's not sure he's got it sufficiently right to make laws.

    That's why I'm suggesting "rule" rather than "law"
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Banterman said:

    eadric said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    eadric said:

    An alleged stabbing. Who knows. The beatings are bad enough

    twitter.com/ANG83503664/status/1271888098616541189?s=20

    I can see the narrative already. All the sundays carry the yob peeing next to the memorial to the killed police officer and carry lots of footage of the football holigans attacking the police earlier in the day. And there is widespread condemnation.

    The ramble rousers will share around the videos of white individuals being beaten by black mob and say look at this and all the bias media talk about is the other stuff.

    And next weekend back for round 2. Boris, Khan and Met need to close this down ASAP.
    Having now witnessed the reality of these riots, it is fascinating to compare them to what the MSM report

    Like, for some of them, there seems to be some mystery as to whether BLM were even in Trafalgar Square or not.

    This is farcical. I saw it with my own eyes. Several hundred angry protestors all carrying BLM-esque placards, and some of them were intent on horrible violence. I saw BLM supporters hunt down lone whites and attack them in quite cowardly ways: I saw it.

    And it's not like I was the only observer. There were dozens of journalists, photographers, etc.

    The TV lies, and the papers lie. I know this is not that shocking, but to do it this blatantly is remarkable: to me

    Something seriously wrong with UK broadcast media at the moment. They all have become Corbynista's. It's pretty disgusting to see.
    Sky has been on the left for sometime now but they have got worse, much worse, and it says something when I can say the BBC seem more balanced
    Sky leading lights suffer terrible Brexit / Boris derangement syndrome.
    I agree.

    Adam Boulton's twitter feed confirms that and the times he sits and seeths when discussing brexit is really rather amusing
    Beth Rigby is also appalling and Kay Burley is a Corbynista fishwife.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599
    edited June 2020
    eadric said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    This guys thread looking spot on so far.

    https://twitter.com/KonstantinKisin/status/1270711803597615111?s=19

    Yes, that's a brilliant analysis, even if I still hope he is wrong
    With another comedian he's interviewed loads of interesting guests on the Triggernometry YouTube channel.

    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7oPkqeHTwuOZ5CZ-R9f-6w/videos?view=0&sort=p&flow=grid
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    Ave_it said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Banterman said:

    eadric said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    eadric said:

    An alleged stabbing. Who knows. The beatings are bad enough

    twitter.com/ANG83503664/status/1271888098616541189?s=20

    I can see the narrative already. All the sundays carry the yob peeing next to the memorial to the killed police officer and carry lots of footage of the football holigans attacking the police earlier in the day. And there is widespread condemnation.

    The ramble rousers will share around the videos of white individuals being beaten by black mob and say look at this and all the bias media talk about is the other stuff.

    And next weekend back for round 2. Boris, Khan and Met need to close this down ASAP.
    Having now witnessed the reality of these riots, it is fascinating to compare them to what the MSM report

    Like, for some of them, there seems to be some mystery as to whether BLM were even in Trafalgar Square or not.

    This is farcical. I saw it with my own eyes. Several hundred angry protestors all carrying BLM-esque placards, and some of them were intent on horrible violence. I saw BLM supporters hunt down lone whites and attack them in quite cowardly ways: I saw it.

    And it's not like I was the only observer. There were dozens of journalists, photographers, etc.

    The TV lies, and the papers lie. I know this is not that shocking, but to do it this blatantly is remarkable: to me

    Something seriously wrong with UK broadcast media at the moment. They all have become Corbynista's. It's pretty disgusting to see.
    Sky has been on the left for sometime now but they have got worse, much worse, and it says something when I can say the BBC seem more balanced
    Sky leading lights suffer terrible Brexit / Boris derangement syndrome.
    I agree.

    Adam Boulton's twitter feed confirms that and the times he sits and seeths when discussing brexit is really rather amusing
    Beth Rigby is also appalling and Kay Burley is a Corbynista fishwife.
    Burley loves Burley and is one of the worst presenters Sky have had.

    No wonder her viewing figures are only 90,000
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,118
    Andy_JS said:

    eadric said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    This guys thread looking spot on so far.

    https://twitter.com/KonstantinKisin/status/1270711803597615111?s=19

    Yes, that's a brilliant analysis, even if I still hope he is wrong
    With another comedian he's interviewed loads of interesting guests on the Triggernometry YouTube channel.

    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7oPkqeHTwuOZ5CZ-R9f-6w/videos?view=0&sort=p&flow=grid
    He is actually better at that than being a comedian.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    justin124 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    justin124 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Average of the 5 most recent opinion polls.

    Con 43.0%
    Lab 37.8%
    LD 7.8%
    SNP 4.8%
    Grn 2.8%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Labour is already close to 40% in the polls. There is every prospect of the party being in the 45% - 50% range later in the Parliament.
    You are one of the dreamers I referred to earlier

    Predicting polls going forward is for those who wish them to come about

    Others like myself say I have not got a clue
    Not at all - it is very unlikely that support for the main Opposition party peaks so early in a Parliament.
    You know Justin, I have little interest in polls 4 years out from a GE

    Talk to me again in Winter 2023
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Ave_it said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Banterman said:

    eadric said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    eadric said:

    An alleged stabbing. Who knows. The beatings are bad enough

    twitter.com/ANG83503664/status/1271888098616541189?s=20

    I can see the narrative already. All the sundays carry the yob peeing next to the memorial to the killed police officer and carry lots of footage of the football holigans attacking the police earlier in the day. And there is widespread condemnation.

    The ramble rousers will share around the videos of white individuals being beaten by black mob and say look at this and all the bias media talk about is the other stuff.

    And next weekend back for round 2. Boris, Khan and Met need to close this down ASAP.
    Having now witnessed the reality of these riots, it is fascinating to compare them to what the MSM report

    Like, for some of them, there seems to be some mystery as to whether BLM were even in Trafalgar Square or not.

    This is farcical. I saw it with my own eyes. Several hundred angry protestors all carrying BLM-esque placards, and some of them were intent on horrible violence. I saw BLM supporters hunt down lone whites and attack them in quite cowardly ways: I saw it.

    And it's not like I was the only observer. There were dozens of journalists, photographers, etc.

    The TV lies, and the papers lie. I know this is not that shocking, but to do it this blatantly is remarkable: to me

    Something seriously wrong with UK broadcast media at the moment. They all have become Corbynista's. It's pretty disgusting to see.
    Sky has been on the left for sometime now but they have got worse, much worse, and it says something when I can say the BBC seem more balanced
    Sky leading lights suffer terrible Brexit / Boris derangement syndrome.
    I agree.

    Adam Boulton's twitter feed confirms that and the times he sits and seeths when discussing brexit is really rather amusing
    Beth Rigby is also appalling and Kay Burley is a Corbynista fishwife.
    Burley loves Burley and is one of the worst presenters Sky have had.

    No wonder her viewing figures are only 90,000
    Yes it's good news Sky News viewing figures are negligible so this keeps their influence to a minimum. In fact the hard left on here probably have more influence!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1271889838963331073

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1271891854611623941
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Ave_it said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Banterman said:

    eadric said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    eadric said:

    An alleged stabbing. Who knows. The beatings are bad enough

    twitter.com/ANG83503664/status/1271888098616541189?s=20

    I can see the narrative already. All the sundays carry the yob peeing next to the memorial to the killed police officer and carry lots of footage of the football holigans attacking the police earlier in the day. And there is widespread condemnation.

    The ramble rousers will share around the videos of white individuals being beaten by black mob and say look at this and all the bias media talk about is the other stuff.

    And next weekend back for round 2. Boris, Khan and Met need to close this down ASAP.
    Having now witnessed the reality of these riots, it is fascinating to compare them to what the MSM report

    Like, for some of them, there seems to be some mystery as to whether BLM were even in Trafalgar Square or not.

    This is farcical. I saw it with my own eyes. Several hundred angry protestors all carrying BLM-esque placards, and some of them were intent on horrible violence. I saw BLM supporters hunt down lone whites and attack them in quite cowardly ways: I saw it.

    And it's not like I was the only observer. There were dozens of journalists, photographers, etc.

    The TV lies, and the papers lie. I know this is not that shocking, but to do it this blatantly is remarkable: to me

    Something seriously wrong with UK broadcast media at the moment. They all have become Corbynista's. It's pretty disgusting to see.
    Sky has been on the left for sometime now but they have got worse, much worse, and it says something when I can say the BBC seem more balanced
    Sky leading lights suffer terrible Brexit / Boris derangement syndrome.
    I agree.

    Adam Boulton's twitter feed confirms that and the times he sits and seeths when discussing brexit is really rather amusing
    Beth Rigby is also appalling and Kay Burley is a Corbynista fishwife.
    Burley loves Burley and is one of the worst presenters Sky have had.

    No wonder her viewing figures are only 90,000
    Fun fact. Kay Burley's Dad was my old Rugby League coach.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002
    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1271904319927996425
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1271871073454358529
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    eadric said:

    Banterman said:

    eadric said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    eadric said:

    An alleged stabbing. Who knows. The beatings are bad enough

    twitter.com/ANG83503664/status/1271888098616541189?s=20

    I can see the narrative already. All the sundays carry the yob peeing next to the memorial to the killed police officer and carry lots of footage of the football holigans attacking the police earlier in the day. And there is widespread condemnation.

    The ramble rousers will share around the videos of white individuals being beaten by black mob and say look at this and all the bias media talk about is the other stuff.

    And next weekend back for round 2. Boris, Khan and Met need to close this down ASAP.
    Having now witnessed the reality of these riots, it is fascinating to compare them to what the MSM report

    Like, for some of them, there seems to be some mystery as to whether BLM were even in Trafalgar Square or not.

    This is farcical. I saw it with my own eyes. Several hundred angry protestors all carrying BLM-esque placards, and some of them were intent on horrible violence. I saw BLM supporters hunt down lone whites and attack them in quite cowardly ways: I saw it.

    And it's not like I was the only observer. There were dozens of journalists, photographers, etc.

    The TV lies, and the papers lie. I know this is not that shocking, but to do it this blatantly is remarkable: to me

    Something seriously wrong with UK broadcast media at the moment. They all have become Corbynista's. It's pretty disgusting to see.
    Look at this. The Guardian's main report. It is just a series of lies, evasions, half truths and decoys from beginning to end

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jun/13/rightwing-protesters-clash-with-police-in-central-london

    The painful fact is that by far the worst violence, today, came from BLM. They are the only side that hunted down people because of skin colour, they are the only side that tried to kill isolated victims.

    None of this is mentioned. If you read this and decided to believe it, you would, in fact, think there was very little BLM presence in central London at all, whereas in fact there were many hundreds, and they wanted trouble. I saw it.

    Look at these gems:

    "One protester told the Guardian she was disappointed there had not been a bigger presence to oppose the presence of the far right. Weyman Bennett, the co-convenor of SUTR, said: “It’s a disgrace that the far right were allowed to be involved in thuggery and rioting,"

    "The mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, urged the people in Parliament Square to leave by the 5pm deadline set by the Metropolitan police under the Public Order Act.

    He wrote on Twitter: “Everyone who intended to come to BLM protests today but didn’t has reduced the risk of confrontation with these extreme right-wingers, and the spread of Covid-19."

    It's all a load of gaslighting bullshit. Khan is one of the worst offenders. I am angry.
    You're angry? You do surprise me.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Mail seems to scent blood.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1271904319927996425

    Jerrick may be facing more questions about his judgemnt.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    malcolmg said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Average of the 5 most recent opinion polls.

    Con 43.0%
    Lab 37.8%
    LD 7.8%
    SNP 4.8%
    Grn 2.8%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    I see the SNP are unpopular NOT, when will we see the Tory surge that makes Carcrash FM
    Looking forward to Scotland remaining part of UK general elections for the next 500 years. You know where your bread's buttered.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599
    I didn't expect Matthew Parris to take this view on the crisis.

    (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/if-scientists-are-wrong-about-covid-they-must-be-held-to-account-tpnfszm8q

    "If scientists are wrong about Covid, they must be held to account
    If the economic damage caused by lockdown turns out to have been needless, it’s not just politicians who’ll be to blame
    Matthew Parris

    The world has panicked and the British government has panicked worse than most. We scared ourselves and our fellow citizens out of rational thought. By losing our sense of proportion I submit we have crashed our economy, crashed our education system, our performing arts, our tourist and travel industry, and blighted the life chances of a whole generation. Before too long, commentators, politicians and scientists may be blushing at the mess we made of our national response to the coronavirus pandemic"
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002
    dr_spyn said:

    Jerrick may be facing more questions about his judgemnt.

    Not just Jenrick...

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1271908364822491139
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    Funny how two weeks ago the Boris critics on here were talking about how the Dom Cummings eyesight test would be the defining moment that loses the Conservatives the 2024 election.

    Yet less than a month later we have moved on to race riots, yobs, stabbings in the streets, and whether or not Churchill was a racist.

    Nobody is talking about Cummings any more. Quelle surprise.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002
    He doesn't look well

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1271902553417138176
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,680
    What did the EDL crowd hope to achieve today? Did they think a) they wouldn't encounter any trouble or b) if they did they'd come out of it victorious? Either way, their mystique as hardened, all-conquering fighting men is now in tatters.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited June 2020
    I am not a football fan at all, but out of nostalgia for the day I did briefly tune in to the Youtube recording shown on here of the1966 World Cup Final held at the end of July 1966.That was four months following the 1966 election, and Wilson's Labour Government was still well ahead in the polls despite an emergency economic package - including a Wage Freeze - having been introduced a week earlier.That continued to be true into Autumn 1966 , but by Spring 1968 its electoral position was so dire that at the London Borough elections the Tories gained control of Hackney, Lambeth, Islington as well as cities such as Liverpool-Manchester- Leeds-Sheffield - Newcastle - and Norwich!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357
    Ave_it said:

    malcolmg said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Average of the 5 most recent opinion polls.

    Con 43.0%
    Lab 37.8%
    LD 7.8%
    SNP 4.8%
    Grn 2.8%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    I see the SNP are unpopular NOT, when will we see the Tory surge that makes Carcrash FM
    Looking forward to Scotland remaining part of UK general elections for the next 500 years. You know where your bread's buttered.
    be very surprised if we see the next one
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413
    kyf_100 said:

    Funny how two weeks ago the Boris critics on here were talking about how the Dom Cummings eyesight test would be the defining moment that loses the Conservatives the 2024 election.

    Yet less than a month later we have moved on to race riots, yobs, stabbings in the streets, and whether or not Churchill was a racist.

    Nobody is talking about Cummings any more. Quelle surprise.

    Life moves pretty fast...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002
    kyf_100 said:

    Nobody is talking about Cummings any more. Quelle surprise.

    Mentioned multiple times on this thread alone.

    And in the papers.

    Apart from that, you are absolutely right. Nobody talkin about him...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Banterman said:

    eadric said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    eadric said:

    An alleged stabbing. Who knows. The beatings are bad enough

    twitter.com/ANG83503664/status/1271888098616541189?s=20

    I can see the narrative already. All the sundays carry the yob peeing next to the memorial to the killed police officer and carry lots of footage of the football holigans attacking the police earlier in the day. And there is widespread condemnation.

    The ramble rousers will share around the videos of white individuals being beaten by black mob and say look at this and all the bias media talk about is the other stuff.

    And next weekend back for round 2. Boris, Khan and Met need to close this down ASAP.
    Having now witnessed the reality of these riots, it is fascinating to compare them to what the MSM report

    Like, for some of them, there seems to be some mystery as to whether BLM were even in Trafalgar Square or not.

    This is farcical. I saw it with my own eyes. Several hundred angry protestors all carrying BLM-esque placards, and some of them were intent on horrible violence. I saw BLM supporters hunt down lone whites and attack them in quite cowardly ways: I saw it.

    And it's not like I was the only observer. There were dozens of journalists, photographers, etc.

    The TV lies, and the papers lie. I know this is not that shocking, but to do it this blatantly is remarkable: to me

    Something seriously wrong with UK broadcast media at the moment. They all have become Corbynista's. It's pretty disgusting to see.
    Sky has been on the left for sometime now but they have got worse, much worse, and it says something when I can say the BBC seem more balanced
    Sky leading lights suffer terrible Brexit / Boris derangement syndrome.
    Brexit is the biggest symptom of EU derangement syndrome.
    Be Leave.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Stark_Dawning said:

    What did the EDL crowd hope to achieve today? Did they think a) they wouldn't encounter any trouble or b) if they did they'd come out of it victorious? Either way, their mystique as hardened, all-conquering fighting men is now in tatters.

    What an odd take on events.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    eadric said:

    Banterman said:

    eadric said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    eadric said:

    An alleged stabbing. Who knows. The beatings are bad enough

    twitter.com/ANG83503664/status/1271888098616541189?s=20

    I can see the narrative already. All the sundays carry the yob peeing next to the memorial to the killed police officer and carry lots of footage of the football holigans attacking the police earlier in the day. And there is widespread condemnation.

    The ramble rousers will share around the videos of white individuals being beaten by black mob and say look at this and all the bias media talk about is the other stuff.

    And next weekend back for round 2. Boris, Khan and Met need to close this down ASAP.
    Having now witnessed the reality of these riots, it is fascinating to compare them to what the MSM report

    Like, for some of them, there seems to be some mystery as to whether BLM were even in Trafalgar Square or not.

    This is farcical. I saw it with my own eyes. Several hundred angry protestors all carrying BLM-esque placards, and some of them were intent on horrible violence. I saw BLM supporters hunt down lone whites and attack them in quite cowardly ways: I saw it.

    And it's not like I was the only observer. There were dozens of journalists, photographers, etc.

    The TV lies, and the papers lie. I know this is not that shocking, but to do it this blatantly is remarkable: to me

    Something seriously wrong with UK broadcast media at the moment. They all have become Corbynista's. It's pretty disgusting to see.
    Look at this. The Guardian's main report. It is just a series of lies, evasions, half truths and decoys from beginning to end

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jun/13/rightwing-protesters-clash-with-police-in-central-london

    The painful fact is that by far the worst violence, today, came from BLM. They are the only side that hunted down people because of skin colour, they are the only side that tried to kill isolated victims.

    None of this is mentioned. If you read this and decided to believe it, you would, in fact, think there was very little BLM presence in central London at all, whereas in fact there were many hundreds, and they wanted trouble. I saw it.

    Look at these gems:

    "One protester told the Guardian she was disappointed there had not been a bigger presence to oppose the presence of the far right. Weyman Bennett, the co-convenor of SUTR, said: “It’s a disgrace that the far right were allowed to be involved in thuggery and rioting,"

    "The mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, urged the people in Parliament Square to leave by the 5pm deadline set by the Metropolitan police under the Public Order Act.

    He wrote on Twitter: “Everyone who intended to come to BLM protests today but didn’t has reduced the risk of confrontation with these extreme right-wingers, and the spread of Covid-19."

    It's all a load of gaslighting bullshit. Khan is one of the worst offenders. I am angry.
    BLM were already protesting grievances.

    The white supremacist thugs went looking for trouble to fight with BLM.

    And you're blaming BLM for violence? Quelle surprise!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599
    justin124 said:

    I am not a football fan at all, but out of nostalgia for the day I did briefly tune in to the Youtube recording shown on here of the1966 World Cup Final held at the end of July 1966.That was four months following the 1966 election, and Wilson's Labour Government was still well ahead in the polls despite an emergency economic package - including a Wage Freeze - having been introduced a week earlier.That continued to be true into Autumn 1966 , but by Spring 1968 its electoral position was so dire that at the London Borough elections the Tories gained control of Hackney, Lambeth, Islington as well as cities such as Liverpool-Manchester- Leeds-Sheffield - Newcastle - and Norwich!

    That golden period was also interrupted by the 1968/69 flu epidemic which killed about 80,000 people in the UK, although a surprising number of people who lived through the time can't remember it much.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357
    kyf_100 said:

    Funny how two weeks ago the Boris critics on here were talking about how the Dom Cummings eyesight test would be the defining moment that loses the Conservatives the 2024 election.

    Yet less than a month later we have moved on to race riots, yobs, stabbings in the streets, and whether or not Churchill was a racist.

    Nobody is talking about Cummings any more. Quelle surprise.

    Much bigger scandals unfolding, usual Tory graft , riots , etc, they could not run a bath.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,680
    tlg86 said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    What did the EDL crowd hope to achieve today? Did they think a) they wouldn't encounter any trouble or b) if they did they'd come out of it victorious? Either way, their mystique as hardened, all-conquering fighting men is now in tatters.

    What an odd take on events.
    What's odd about it?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    justin124 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    justin124 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Average of the 5 most recent opinion polls.

    Con 43.0%
    Lab 37.8%
    LD 7.8%
    SNP 4.8%
    Grn 2.8%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Labour is already close to 40% in the polls. There is every prospect of the party being in the 45% - 50% range later in the Parliament.
    You are one of the dreamers I referred to earlier

    Predicting polls going forward is for those who wish them to come about

    Others like myself say I have not got a clue
    Not at all - it is very unlikely that support for the main Opposition party peaks so early in a Parliament.
    You know Justin, I have little interest in polls 4 years out from a GE

    Talk to me again in Winter 2023
    That is fair enough, but some of us do study what occurred in earlier Parliaments - and base our comments on such an analysis whilst being mindful that history never quite repeats itself.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002
    https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/1271910685283356674
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    eadric said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    eadric said:

    Banterman said:

    eadric said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    eadric said:

    An alleged stabbing. Who knows. The beatings are bad enough

    twitter.com/ANG83503664/status/1271888098616541189?s=20

    I can see the narrative already. All the sundays carry the yob peeing next to the memorial to the killed police officer and carry lots of footage of the football holigans attacking the police earlier in the day. And there is widespread condemnation.

    The ramble rousers will share around the videos of white individuals being beaten by black mob and say look at this and all the bias media talk about is the other stuff.

    And next weekend back for round 2. Boris, Khan and Met need to close this down ASAP.
    Having now witnessed the reality of these riots, it is fascinating to compare them to what the MSM report

    Like, for some of them, there seems to be some mystery as to whether BLM were even in Trafalgar Square or not.

    This is farcical. I saw it with my own eyes. Several hundred angry protestors all carrying BLM-esque placards, and some of them were intent on horrible violence. I saw BLM supporters hunt down lone whites and attack them in quite cowardly ways: I saw it.

    And it's not like I was the only observer. There were dozens of journalists, photographers, etc.

    The TV lies, and the papers lie. I know this is not that shocking, but to do it this blatantly is remarkable: to me

    Something seriously wrong with UK broadcast media at the moment. They all have become Corbynista's. It's pretty disgusting to see.
    Look at this. The Guardian's main report. It is just a series of lies, evasions, half truths and decoys from beginning to end

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jun/13/rightwing-protesters-clash-with-police-in-central-london

    The painful fact is that by far the worst violence, today, came from BLM. They are the only side that hunted down people because of skin colour, they are the only side that tried to kill isolated victims.

    None of this is mentioned. If you read this and decided to believe it, you would, in fact, think there was very little BLM presence in central London at all, whereas in fact there were many hundreds, and they wanted trouble. I saw it.

    Look at these gems:

    "One protester told the Guardian she was disappointed there had not been a bigger presence to oppose the presence of the far right. Weyman Bennett, the co-convenor of SUTR, said: “It’s a disgrace that the far right were allowed to be involved in thuggery and rioting,"

    "The mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, urged the people in Parliament Square to leave by the 5pm deadline set by the Metropolitan police under the Public Order Act.

    He wrote on Twitter: “Everyone who intended to come to BLM protests today but didn’t has reduced the risk of confrontation with these extreme right-wingers, and the spread of Covid-19."

    It's all a load of gaslighting bullshit. Khan is one of the worst offenders. I am angry.
    BLM were already protesting grievances.

    The white supremacist thugs went looking for trouble to fight with BLM.

    And you're blaming BLM for violence? Quelle surprise!
    We told you that applauding violent criminal damage - the statue-toppling - would end in blood. So it is. I get that you're now embarrassed
    I'm not embarrassed.

    Those who went looking for blood should be ashamed of themselves. End of story.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited June 2020
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1271871073454358529

    Do you even bother to read this bollocks before reposting it? Boris and Starmer's scores are exactly the same.

    You could equally well write:

    'Another eyebrow-raisingly poor poll for Keir Starmer. LOTO bunker must feel like a lonely place right now.'
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/1271910685283356674

    Another classic case of BDS.
This discussion has been closed.