Whilst I do think Starmer will win the next election I confess to sharing the @isam experience of watching that particular broadcast by him. He did not grab me. Indeed he lost the battle for my attention to his desk and surroundings. So he does need to work on this.
It's far too soon to tell, but it would be truly remarkable if Labour were able to win the next General Election outright.
On the current boundaries, seat number 123 on the Labour target list is South Ribble, with a Con maj of over 11,000 and requiring a 10.4% swing to flip; moreover, there are 16 SNP seats in the list ahead of that, and for each one of those SLAB can't win back an even safer target in England or Wales has to be converted. If Labour can't make any progress at all in Scotland (not at all beyond the bounds of possibility) then the magic target becomes Basingstoke (Con maj 14,200, 13% swing required) which has been Tory continuously since 1924. If Scotland secedes before the next GE then the new magic target becomes the slightly more achievable Stevenage (Con maj 8,500, 9% swing,) but that still requires a swing to Labour slightly in excess of the 1997 Blair landslide to achieve an absolute majority of one.
Beyond that, we have to consider it likely that the Government will use its solid Commons majority to implement long-overdue boundary changes at some point before the next election. Whatever the outcome of such reforms, one has to presume that they are unlikely to be advantageous to Labour which has historically benefitted from holding many under-sized constituencies in urban areas and in Wales.
A much more realistic target is, of course, to strip the Tories of their majority and govern as a minority or in a coalition; Labour doesn't even have to become the largest party to do that. However, unless Scotland has gone by then, the English Tories will then be able to weaponise the SNP against Labour in the campaign again, which may result in a situation not necessarily to Starmer's advantage.
Though if Scotland has independence by the time of the next rUK GE, I cannot see that playing well for the Tories.
A Lab SNP coalition/Confidence and Supply may not be that scary to English voters. Ms Sturgeon is well thought of South of the border, in a way that Salmond never was.
On the first point - I'm not sure it hurts the Tories that much. There may be a large cohort of English public opinion that would be distraught at the departure of Scotland but I'd be surprised. Scotland isn't a possession, and the United Kingdom as a structure is in long-term decline.
On the second, the jury's out. Sturgeon was already in charge in 2015 and the Tories seemed to be able to make political capital out of portraying EdM as being in her pocket back then. Yes, she polls reasonably well because she is well presented, and most voters outside of Scotland know next-to-nothing of her Government or its policies (independence aside) and do not have to live under them, but the West Lothian Question applies at this point. If a substantial number of English voters conclude that they object to the Scottish Nationalists having a controlling stake in their Government, when they themselves have very little say anymore in what happens in Scotland, then that could be damaging to Labour's chances.
Surely the main point is that Sturgeon (or, more likely, her successor) would demand indyref2 as the price of a coalition, of any kind, with PM manque Starmer
And he would have to refuse in case the referendum was lost.
There will have been a referendum before that ever happens
There will be no referendum while the Tories are in government at least until after the next general election
If Boris wins the 2024 election at a canter, there won't be Indyref2 until the 2030s. By which time I will be past caring.
Beth Rigby really should be placed in internment by the government. It's what we would do with these sort of people in wartime. And this is the biggest crisis since the war.
It is very wrong of the media to point out that the government is making a bloody awful mess of managing the effects of this pandemic and one of its most senior figures has repeatedly broken its own rules.
How can they be giving aid and comfort to the virus in the way they are?
All I've seen is everyone on PB declaring that we'll be awash with unlabelled horror food from the US, with nothing to subtantiate the story. Now a Minister has said different it is some kind of U-turn!
Reread the letter. It talks about what the government will do in some bill or other. What it ignores is what Tory MPs actually did in a recent Commons vote, which was the opposite of what is said here. It also conveniently ignores the compromises needed in order to get a trade agreement.
Beth Rigby really should be placed in internment by the government. It's what we would do with these sort of people in wartime. And this is the biggest crisis since the war.
It is very wrong of the media to point out that the government is making a bloody awful mess of managing the effects of this pandemic and one of its most senior figures has repeatedly broken its own rules.
How can they be giving aid and comfort to the virus in the way they are?
The TV and radio media is supposed to be reasonably impartial. Sky isn't. Beth Rigby is one of the worst offenders. The government should just remove these people from broadcasting.
This is much much better from Labour. Much cleverer. Also clear and coherent. Heck, I could support it myself.
Boris Johnson has a problem with Starmer, but Starmer might also cause problems for Sturgeon and the SNP.
It's waffle. Without an English Parliament federalism is impossible, and there is zero excuse for the continued existence of Barnett.
It's not going to win over any significant chunk of pro-independence sentiment in Scotland, and somehow I don't see that many committed Unionist voters will be interested in voting to appease the SNP with yet more powers, either. It leaves SLAB continuing to fish in a small pond.
Many thanks to isam for the heads-up on Jess Phillips being the next Labour Leader. With the benefit of Ladbrokes' odds boost I was able to obtain odds of 60/1 against such an eventuality.
Starmer would return the UK to the single market, leaving near zero chance of Yes winning indyref2 anyway
You've come out with this again - is this Labour policy or your characterisation of it? I've not seen anywhere Starmer saying he will try to take Britain into the Single Market. Indeed, all I've seen is his acceptance we won't rejoin the EU.
As we don't yet know the terms on which we will end transition, it seem sodd you seem so certain of what Labour's line is or will be.
The EU have made clear the choice is WTO terms Brexit or single market alignment for a FTA, as Starmer will never back the former he will pursue the latter.
There is clearly a cohort of angry political activists who are primed to engage in riotous demonstrations, and BLM provides a context and a pretext for exactly that. It is a self-organising tinderbox waiting only for a spark to go off.
This is much much better from Labour. Much cleverer. Also clear and coherent. Heck, I could support it myself.
Boris Johnson has a problem with Starmer, but Starmer might also cause problems for Sturgeon and the SNP.
To my knowledge Starmer has said nothing of note about Scotland so far which is probably pretty smart, but he'll have produce a convincing bowel movement or get off the pot sooner rather than later.
Incidentally the people promoting this new, clear vision for a bright Devo Max future are the same people that have been punting the previous 43 versions of SLab North Britishry. Why they think folk are going to start believing them now is slightly mysterious to me.
Whilst I do think Starmer will win the next election I confess to sharing the @isam experience of watching that particular broadcast by him. He did not grab me. Indeed he lost the battle for my attention to his desk and surroundings. So he does need to work on this.
With all due respect, I find it hard to believe anybody can predict the result of a GE 4 years away. If a week is a long time in politics 4 years is an eternity.
That is all true - but if the election is on 2nd May 2024 we are now as close to Polling Day as to Theresa May becoming PM. Is that such a long time ago?
I'll tell you what I think is inevitable: One day there will be an election that results in a hung parliaments leading to a Labour-SNP coalition. It was inevitable that eventually the Lib Dems would hold the balance of power and so it came to pass in 2010. Eventually we'll get Labour-SNP in power. Quite how that will turn out I don't know.
Not a coalition. Much more likely is a Labour minority government receiving Confidence & Supply from the SNP and other parties.
Comments
How can they be giving aid and comfort to the virus in the way they are?
NEW THREAD
It's not going to win over any significant chunk of pro-independence sentiment in Scotland, and somehow I don't see that many committed Unionist voters will be interested in voting to appease the SNP with yet more powers, either. It leaves SLAB continuing to fish in a small pond.
End of conversation
Incidentally the people promoting this new, clear vision for a bright Devo Max future are the same people that have been punting the previous 43 versions of SLab North Britishry. Why they think folk are going to start believing them now is slightly mysterious to me.
https://twitter.com/Robertsonmalt/status/1269257639965450241?s=20