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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The case for making “personality” ratings a good electoral ind
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The case for making “personality” ratings a good electoral indicator
Last month, Keir Starmer appeared on the television in my front room to give his response to the Prime Minister’s Covid-19 statement. A few seconds later my eyes glazed over, a few more passed and I switched the tv off saying “Jesus, he is dull”. It set me thinking that in a world of Reality tv, tiktok, snapchat, (none of which I am a fan of), and general instant gratification, (which I kind of am) Starmer was too boring to be Prime Minister. Those with a keen interest in politics scrutinise policies, but it could be that a significant minority, perhaps even a small majority, of the public prefer someone they can imagine mucking in on I’m a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here. The polls are tightening, and this weeks IPSOS-MORI political monitor has Starmer ahead of Boris Johnson in favourability by 14 points, albeit with over a third not yet knowing enough about him to express an opinion. So does charisma matter?
Comments
Yes I agree Starmer won't beat Boris. Starmer will stabilise Labour but won't win a GE. Maybe Jess, it would liven things up a bit!
Medical experts in the US fear the use of tear gas and pepper spray by the country's police at Black Lives Matter protests will increase the risk for Covid-19.
The concern was raised in an open letter which explained why the demonstrations are necessary despite those attending having been advised to stay at home to help prevent the spread of coronavirus. The letter was signed by 1,288 professionals in the field.
One bullet point reads: "Oppose any use of tear gas, smoke, or other respiratory irritants, which could increase risk for Covid-19 by making the respiratory tract more susceptible to infection, exacerbating existing inflammation, and inducing coughing."
Seriously they need to clear the streets of these people, nationwide
I think the charisma factor is largely retrospective. If Ed Miliband had beaten Dave Cameron, wouldn't he have been seen as charismatic?
You're right in principle, but of course personality is only one factor amongst many. I guess you are right with your Starmer bet though. At those odds, he's a lay....especially if the Tories get to replace Boris before the next GE.
https://slate.com/human-interest/2020/06/st-johns-church-rector-rob-fisher-trump-photo-op.html
He managed to alienate church leaders who see it as part of their mission to get along with the president.
What is wrong with Sky
https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1269293571527659520?s=09
And of course it should be covered by the BBC
My mullet lies on the kitchen floor....
But I think it's going to change because of coronavirus and recession and climate change. Things are going to get serious and frivolous Boris types will lose appeal. So will Boris.
Trump in November will be a litmus. If he wins again I'm wrong.
Sensible, dull even. And a contrast to the PM. You can't out Boris Mr Johnson, so why try?
What it has done is put Labour back in the game. There are plenty of Tories none too impressed with the government. Their votes are up for grabs. As are those who went blue for the first time. Along with the LDs .
It may not be enough. There is a massive electoral hill to climb, but the first steps have been taken.
Does anyone now question they will be one of the big two next time? Does anyone think they will go backwards?
Both were genuinely possibilities under RLB.
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1269326346930569222
Waits for Survation etc..
It seems to irritate the hell out of you.
All we have got left is the government suppressing significant industry sectors which are desperate to reopen on the grounds of "science" which has no credibility or consistency
I may be slightly late with that news...
However, not sure it changes anything
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1269327154086588418
And then have the new Survation poll as the very next post.
https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1269328315569102851
The kind of thing they're going to break up is big house and street parties. If somebody's single neighbour was having her boyfriend round her flat and they decided to ring the local constabulary to grass her up, then I imagine they'd be politely told to get lost.
Having said that, sooner or later Starmer will have to tell voters what he believes in and what policies will flow from that. His Brexit policy was disastrous, and he'll have to do better. He'll need an attractive and distinctive policy programme and be able to keep his party together behind it. Not easy.
He also needs to sound interesting. When a nation needs inspiring worthy but dull will probably not be enough.
He reports that some are trying to take his cameras away
Mark just talking to a very angry BLM demonstrator who is furious and says we have not come here for this but came here for unity, and that has gone now
In the thread, the words "Sir Keir will not be the next PM" seem a tad overly confident.
However, you’re conclusion, if correct, is just further proof that Scottish voters have significantly different preferences in terms of style and the (perceived) personality of candidates. Which I think we all knew anyway.
Boris is a disaster for the Scottish Tories. The jury is out on Starmer via a vis his influence on the Scottish Labour vote. Can’t see Moran being much help to the struggling SLDs.
Or am I conflating two stories?
NOM beckons, Starmer on a Corbyn 2017 result, but that is before tactical voting...
First, does Boris have a personality, or an act? Who was it who did the piece about being at a couple of awards dos and seeing BoJo do the same routine, word for word and tic for tic? The act might wear pretty thin- like old time music hall acts on the telly.
Next, will Boris make it to 2024? Right now, he looks pretty unwell and pretty unhappy.
Finally, you make a good point about first name recognition. Maggie had it, though Blair didn't need it really. SKS does by definition; he's Sir Keir. The Sir-ness puts a bit of distance, I'm sure. But I was struck by a report on this week's PMQs which described them as Sir Keir and Mr Johnson. Which one sounds bigger, more Prime Ministerial?
If you start throwing stuff, whether London or New York, Beijing or Moscow, you cannot expect the state's police not to react. Violence is violence, whatever the cause.
Starmer's personal ratings are currently ascending on the back of his clinical and withering victories overJohnson at PMQs. The fact that he can think before he speaks will demonstrate he is serious rather than casual and flippant. Starmer's confidence will rise should the government start to fail over the longer term. The time may also be right by 2024 for a grown up rather than a man-child-stand-up comedian. Starmer looks the part and will grow into the role.
As for Tories claiming Jess Phillips or Lisa Nandy would be running away with the polls had they won the leadership race. I don't believe them. Much as I rate Phillips and Mandy, Tory supporters would be calling them out for their regional accents, which would demonstrate a lack of intelligence, a lack of social standing or just a demonstration of their general ignorance, irrespective of personal or educational achievement. I can say this as someone with a thick West Midlands accent, which however hard I have tried to shake it off it remains and has been a millstone throughout my career. Conversely any success would categorise them as champagne socialists.
Having said that, now is a very different moment in politics. I still think the big thing for Starmer is how does he react when economic impact starts to bite. Cameron and Osborne backed the bank bailout. How will Labour react to the difficult decisions taken by the government?
That will get CHB excited!
Starmar is making plans, and popcorn, I expect...
Starmar is making plans, and popcorn, I expect...
Letter writing and avoiding making any decisions
Lets see what he has to say about today
Lets see what he has to say about today
https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1269197488554156032?s=19
She accepts that going to a party would be wrong
I never realised a virus selected its victims based on their morals.........
Oh - she was fine to go on the protest, but not ok to go to school to work.........
That it seems would be more dangerous......
And 'will win' needs qualifying as there are different degrees of winning. Vote share? Most seats but not in government (not likely for Labour in fairness, with more agreement possibilities), majority? Second in seats but in power a la Jacinda Adern?
So SNP and Green only ones for second ref
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1269299479326470144