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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:
    That's a very good article.

    Trump is despicable and I really worry this is playing right into his hands.
    Bottom line is that he believes in the knee on the neck.
    When Colin Kaepernick took the knee in protest he was sacked and vilified by Trump, amongst others.

    That is how peaceful protest is treated in the USA.
    What's more Trump literally called for violent disorder against elected authorities just a matter of weeks ago.
    This American Carnage starts here!
    Can't see how a nation in flames helps the Head of State tbh.
    Particularly when he doesn't seem able or even willing to do owt about it other than make it worse with tweeting.
    Trump doesn't care who the minorities vote for, they're a minority. He wins by scaring whites into voting for him.

    I worry the riots are going to play into his hands. They shouldn't, but he's an arsonist gleefully playing with fire.
    CNN playing into his hands at the moment. Straight away taken the bait on ANTIFA, already got the talking heads on Russia, Russia, Russia and that he can't designate them as a terrorist group.

    A lot of middle America will see black hodded youth, smashing, looting and burning shit down and think hold on he is trying to do something about them and the usual suspects are implicitly defending them.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,434
    eadric said:

    Why the swing back to the Tories?

    Why not?

    We're 4 years to an election. Don't hyperventillate over every poll . . . you'll turn into @HYUFD !
    I'd normally dismiss this poll as an outlier, BUT I have heard several different people this week (all lefties, or centre lefties) say, "Yes the government is a bit shit, but they are doing their best, maybe give them a chance"

    I wonder if the relentless onslaught on Cummings is now backfiring. It is overdone and people want to think the best of their leaders in a time of great danger.

    Just a theory.
    Could be that people were hoping Starmer would be the grown-up in the room, move beyond the initial complaining about Cummings to show the leadership needed, but that didn't seem to happen.

    I know there is a lot of excitement about Starmer due to him not being Corbyn, but he's clearly not in the first rank of political leaders.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    TimT said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:
    That's a very good article.

    Trump is despicable and I really worry this is playing right into his hands.
    It has moved the narrative on from his coronavirus failing and he gets to play the tough man.
    He's not a tough man. He's an arsonist. An evil, white supremacist bigotted narcissist that has spread the flames of hate. He's scum incarnate.
    I'll put you down as a maybe.

    Yes, Philip was way to kind to Trump.
    I can't understand what America has done to deserve a President so awful.

    The are no words that describe how catastrophic Trump is.
    "I can't understand what America has done to deserve a President so awful."

    Er, voted for him?
    In all fairness, a majority of Americans voted against him. Pretty sickening really that three million more voted for his opponent yet they get the blame for his presidency anyway. The Electoral College is an utterly stupid system.
    As much as I hate Trump and despise him, the Electoral College makes sense.

    Hillary failed to campaign in swing states and reaped what she sowed. The Electoral College was designed to ensure that smaller states got a larger voice quite deliberately, the Electoral College could have been done to be proportional to state sizes but quite deliberately was distorted to give tiny states a larger voice.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    eadric said:

    Scott_xP said:
    hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah

    Pause

    hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahha

    Pause

    hahahahahahahahahahahahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

    burp
    I have this theory, which is probably bollocks, that you are a parody.

    An exceedingly brilliant parody, mind!
    Yep. Spoof account. I realised it months ago. He has several others, all of which have their own charms.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Wait, I thought Churchill was a racist imperialist? Has the old boy been rehabilitated? :D
    Undeniably Churchill was both racist and Imperialist. A man of his times.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878

    This is pretty disgusting.

    There were hordes of teenagers (not from the area) at my mum and dad's this weekend playing in the river nearby - driven in. They turned the banks to mud.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52867696

    Yep. These are the dickheads I was referring to earlier. Actually, calling them dickheads is being overly nice towards them.
    Yes that’s filthy. Horrible behaviour.

    But you have been overly fond of using that epithet for people who are bending lockdown rules, so you can understand why people think you are crying wolf.
    I've felt obliged to play to the gallery.

    The problem I tend to have is that people take me seriously when I'm trolling and think I'm trolling when I'm being serious.

    Is that you, Donald? :lol:
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    Tories better hope their isn't a second wave in the next few weeks. I think that would be the final nail and their polling numbers would be done for, long term.

    Yep. I think they are done for anyway, as the economic shitstorm hits.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Even after the kitchen sink was thrown at Boris he still has a lead? :sunglasses:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    To go down by only two points after all that? Quite something.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    TimT said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:
    That's a very good article.

    Trump is despicable and I really worry this is playing right into his hands.
    It has moved the narrative on from his coronavirus failing and he gets to play the tough man.
    He's not a tough man. He's an arsonist. An evil, white supremacist bigotted narcissist that has spread the flames of hate. He's scum incarnate.
    I'll put you down as a maybe.

    Yes, Philip was way to kind to Trump.
    I can't understand what America has done to deserve a President so awful.

    The are no words that describe how catastrophic Trump is.
    "I can't understand what America has done to deserve a President so awful."

    Er, voted for him?
    In all fairness, a majority of Americans voted against him. Pretty sickening really that three million more voted for his opponent yet they get the blame for his presidency anyway. The Electoral College is an utterly stupid system.
    As much as I hate Trump and despise him, the Electoral College makes sense.

    Hillary failed to campaign in swing states and reaped what she sowed. The Electoral College was designed to ensure that smaller states got a larger voice quite deliberately, the Electoral College could have been done to be proportional to state sizes but quite deliberately was distorted to give tiny states a larger voice.
    Dividing Dakota up just so they got more votes was having a laugh, however. Perhaps California should think about hiving off SoCal?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    Foxy said:

    The lack of demand for the NHS is getting crazy at Winchester hospital, this week they are having meetings to discuss redundancies in all areas. They have 3 times the staff they need, they are not getting referrals from GPs and the whole Covid testing procedure is putting people off from having surgery. They were expecting some return to normality but it is not happening. They have just a few Covid patients and have not admitted any new ones for a while.

    Seriously? Redundancies? Hmmm.
    Absolutely, the major problem is they thought there was a pent up demand but it is not happening. Quite regularly there are more staff on a ward then patients. The staff have nothing to do. They are being forced to take annual leave. They can see no change coming and with Covid dying out it’s a situation that cant continue.
    My three NHS mates (one ward doc) broadly concur. Reckon it’s way too quiet, little to do, and the government has stoked up fear of hospitals so much that almost the only people in them are hospital staff and Covid sufferers. People aren’t reporting to hospital with other things, because they are scared. Their general view is that the lockdown needs to end for all but the highest risk groups, because the current situation is scaring people away from attending A&E despite their having good cause to do so.
    Personal anecdote != data alert

    My GP (who has been very active during this emergency) reckons that the excess deaths are not so much hidden COVID, as old(er) people not going to the hospital for fear of COVID.

    Given she has been signing death certificates...
    Why then are the excess deaths strongly correlated with the covid deaths geographically? They are not occurring evenly, though the lockdown is applied evenly.
    She obviously didn't give specifics, but mentioned: pre-existing conditions that weren't being checked and heart attacks.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:
    That's a very good article.

    Trump is despicable and I really worry this is playing right into his hands.
    Bottom line is that he believes in the knee on the neck.
    When Colin Kaepernick took the knee in protest he was sacked and vilified by Trump, amongst others.

    That is how peaceful protest is treated in the USA.
    What's more Trump literally called for violent disorder against elected authorities just a matter of weeks ago.
    This American Carnage starts here!
    Can't see how a nation in flames helps the Head of State tbh.
    Particularly when he doesn't seem able or even willing to do owt about it other than make it worse with tweeting.
    Trump doesn't care who the minorities vote for, they're a minority. He wins by scaring whites into voting for him.

    I worry the riots are going to play into his hands. They shouldn't, but he's an arsonist gleefully playing with fire.
    CNN playing into his hands at the moment. Straight away taken the bait on ANTIFA, already got the talking heads on Russia, Russia, Russia and that he can't designate them as a terrorist group.

    A lot of middle America will see black hodded youth, smashing, looting and burning shit down and think hold on he is trying to do something about them and the usual suspects are implicitly defending them.
    Silent majority election.*


    * with added dose of china hate.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    The headline intention I don't get myself but the underlying numbers are utterly grim for the Tories long term.

    Starmer will surely lead on best PM soon.

    Looking at the positive aspects in isolation the Tories win on:

    More In Touch than Labour
    More Trustworthy than Labour.
    More Trying to do the right thing than Labour
    More Strong than Labour
    More Competent than Labour.

    Looking at the positive aspects in isolation Labour win on:
    More Cares about ordinary people than the Tories.
    Not by much though, and quite some momentum. Downwards momentum for the Tories on most descriptors.


    Still, quite incredible that the Tories are still more in touch and more trustworthy.
    Anyone who cheers and jeers polling from either side at this stage in the electoral cycle needs to get a bloody life.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    IanB2 said:

    TimT said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:
    That's a very good article.

    Trump is despicable and I really worry this is playing right into his hands.
    It has moved the narrative on from his coronavirus failing and he gets to play the tough man.
    He's not a tough man. He's an arsonist. An evil, white supremacist bigotted narcissist that has spread the flames of hate. He's scum incarnate.
    I'll put you down as a maybe.

    Yes, Philip was way to kind to Trump.
    I can't understand what America has done to deserve a President so awful.

    The are no words that describe how catastrophic Trump is.
    "I can't understand what America has done to deserve a President so awful."

    Er, voted for him?
    In all fairness, a majority of Americans voted against him. Pretty sickening really that three million more voted for his opponent yet they get the blame for his presidency anyway. The Electoral College is an utterly stupid system.
    As much as I hate Trump and despise him, the Electoral College makes sense.

    Hillary failed to campaign in swing states and reaped what she sowed. The Electoral College was designed to ensure that smaller states got a larger voice quite deliberately, the Electoral College could have been done to be proportional to state sizes but quite deliberately was distorted to give tiny states a larger voice.
    Dividing Dakota up just so they got more votes was having a laugh, however. Perhaps California should think about hiving off SoCal?
    I thought Dakota was divided because the Northern Dakotans couldn't stand having the capital in the South and vice-versa?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    The headline intention I don't get myself but the underlying numbers are utterly grim for the Tories long term.

    Starmer will surely lead on best PM soon.

    Looking at the positive aspects in isolation the Tories win on:

    More In Touch than Labour
    More Trustworthy than Labour.
    More Trying to do the right thing than Labour
    More Strong than Labour
    More Competent than Labour.

    Looking at the positive aspects in isolation Labour win on:
    More Cares about ordinary people than the Tories.
    Not by much though, and quite some momentum. Downwards momentum for the Tories on most descriptors.


    Still, quite incredible that the Tories are still more in touch and more trustworthy.
    Anyone who cheers and jeers polling from either side at this stage in the electoral cycle needs to get a bloody life.
    Dude, I frequent a message board regarding politics.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Coronavirus: it's been difficult under this Government but can you imagine what it would have been like under LAB?

    COVID-19 would be out of control, there would be no NHS left and the economy would have been wiped out!

    And Corbyn, McDonnell, Rayner and the rest would still be doing their virtue signalling and focussing on ideology rather than getting on with sorting it!

    BUT BORIS PLEASE stop the lockdown, scrap the furlough, get people back to work and sort it out!!

  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Why the swing back to the Tories?

    Because the surge of ludicrous moralistic anger has subsided and people have regained a sense of perspective - as some of us might have predicted :smile:
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,600
    eadric said:

    IanB2 said:

    An interesting read. Friston is basically lining up with Oxford in arguing that one way or another there is now a significant level of immunity or resistance about. It remains my own view that this is the simplest explanation for what we are seeing in the high level data.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/31/covid-19-expert-karl-friston-germany-may-have-more-immunological-dark-matter

    I'm inclined that way, and certainly hoping so.
    Surely the reason Germans are less likely to die is partly explained by the fact they are less obese.

    Possibly the most successful country in tackling coronavius is Vietnam. Unheralded, but maybe true. It is also the least obese country in the world

    https://obesity.procon.org/global-obesity-levels/
    Do we really believe the official figures that zero people have died from the virus out of a population of 100 million?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217

    TimT said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:
    That's a very good article.

    Trump is despicable and I really worry this is playing right into his hands.
    It has moved the narrative on from his coronavirus failing and he gets to play the tough man.
    He's not a tough man. He's an arsonist. An evil, white supremacist bigotted narcissist that has spread the flames of hate. He's scum incarnate.
    I'll put you down as a maybe.

    Yes, Philip was way to kind to Trump.
    I can't understand what America has done to deserve a President so awful.

    The are no words that describe how catastrophic Trump is.
    "I can't understand what America has done to deserve a President so awful."

    Er, voted for him?
    In all fairness, a majority of Americans voted against him. Pretty sickening really that three million more voted for his opponent yet they get the blame for his presidency anyway. The Electoral College is an utterly stupid system.
    As much as I hate Trump and despise him, the Electoral College makes sense.

    Hillary failed to campaign in swing states and reaped what she sowed. The Electoral College was designed to ensure that smaller states got a larger voice quite deliberately, the Electoral College could have been done to be proportional to state sizes but quite deliberately was distorted to give tiny states a larger voice.
    The Electoral College makes sense so long as everyone feels that it's fair. And right now, it's fine, because although the popular vote loser has won, the gaps have been narrow.

    But imagine that - for example - Ivanka Trump lost the popular vote 60:40, but won the Presidency by a narrow margin. At some point, people say "F*ck this, the system's not working for me."
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:
    That's a very good article.

    Trump is despicable and I really worry this is playing right into his hands.
    Bottom line is that he believes in the knee on the neck.
    When Colin Kaepernick took the knee in protest he was sacked and vilified by Trump, amongst others.

    That is how peaceful protest is treated in the USA.
    What's more Trump literally called for violent disorder against elected authorities just a matter of weeks ago.
    This American Carnage starts here!
    Can't see how a nation in flames helps the Head of State tbh.
    Particularly when he doesn't seem able or even willing to do owt about it other than make it worse with tweeting.
    Trump doesn't care who the minorities vote for, they're a minority. He wins by scaring whites into voting for him.

    I worry the riots are going to play into his hands. They shouldn't, but he's an arsonist gleefully playing with fire.
    I get that viewpoint I really do.
    I just reckon mass infections, riots, 40m unemployed, and a general air of malice and hatred doesnt lead moderates to conclude what we need is 4 more years of that.
    It will scare his base into voting for him, yes. But they would have anyway.
    Those who chose him as "lesser of two evils", or better for their personal finances now have some empirical evidence to reflect on.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited May 2020

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:
    That's a very good article.

    Trump is despicable and I really worry this is playing right into his hands.
    Bottom line is that he believes in the knee on the neck.
    When Colin Kaepernick took the knee in protest he was sacked and vilified by Trump, amongst others.

    That is how peaceful protest is treated in the USA.
    What's more Trump literally called for violent disorder against elected authorities just a matter of weeks ago.
    This American Carnage starts here!
    Can't see how a nation in flames helps the Head of State tbh.
    Particularly when he doesn't seem able or even willing to do owt about it other than make it worse with tweeting.
    Trump doesn't care who the minorities vote for, they're a minority. He wins by scaring whites into voting for him.

    I worry the riots are going to play into his hands. They shouldn't, but he's an arsonist gleefully playing with fire.
    CNN playing into his hands at the moment. Straight away taken the bait on ANTIFA, already got the talking heads on Russia, Russia, Russia and that he can't designate them as a terrorist group.

    A lot of middle America will see black hodded youth, smashing, looting and burning shit down and think hold on he is trying to do something about them and the usual suspects are implicitly defending them.
    Silent majority election.*


    * with added dose of china hate.
    Yeap. He is going to play the China card for coronavirus virus, killing 100k people and wrecking the economy that superficially looked to be doing well. And he will play on the weak response by certain mayors to the ANITFA for several years.

    If it works is another matter, but that is clearly going to be the approach.

    A smarter politician would combine it will enough talk of police reform, but Trump won't do that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    Foxy said:

    The lack of demand for the NHS is getting crazy at Winchester hospital, this week they are having meetings to discuss redundancies in all areas. They have 3 times the staff they need, they are not getting referrals from GPs and the whole Covid testing procedure is putting people off from having surgery. They were expecting some return to normality but it is not happening. They have just a few Covid patients and have not admitted any new ones for a while.

    Seriously? Redundancies? Hmmm.
    Absolutely, the major problem is they thought there was a pent up demand but it is not happening. Quite regularly there are more staff on a ward then patients. The staff have nothing to do. They are being forced to take annual leave. They can see no change coming and with Covid dying out it’s a situation that cant continue.
    My three NHS mates (one ward doc) broadly concur. Reckon it’s way too quiet, little to do, and the government has stoked up fear of hospitals so much that almost the only people in them are hospital staff and Covid sufferers. People aren’t reporting to hospital with other things, because they are scared. Their general view is that the lockdown needs to end for all but the highest risk groups, because the current situation is scaring people away from attending A&E despite their having good cause to do so.
    Personal anecdote != data alert

    My GP (who has been very active during this emergency) reckons that the excess deaths are not so much hidden COVID, as old(er) people not going to the hospital for fear of COVID.

    Given she has been signing death certificates...
    Why then are the excess deaths strongly correlated with the covid deaths geographically? They are not occurring evenly, though the lockdown is applied evenly.
    She obviously didn't give specifics, but mentioned: pre-existing conditions that weren't being checked and heart attacks.
    That still doesn't explain the geographic correlation.

  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    Zeroth rule of politics - don't chase individual data points.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    The headline intention I don't get myself but the underlying numbers are utterly grim for the Tories long term.

    Starmer will surely lead on best PM soon.

    Looking at the positive aspects in isolation the Tories win on:

    More In Touch than Labour
    More Trustworthy than Labour.
    More Trying to do the right thing than Labour
    More Strong than Labour
    More Competent than Labour.

    Looking at the positive aspects in isolation Labour win on:
    More Cares about ordinary people than the Tories.
    Not by much though, and quite some momentum. Downwards momentum for the Tories on most descriptors.


    Still, quite incredible that the Tories are still more in touch and more trustworthy.
    Anyone who cheers and jeers polling from either side at this stage in the electoral cycle needs to get a bloody life.
    Dude, I frequent a message board regarding politics.
    Do you? What's it called? :lol:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217

    TimT said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:
    That's a very good article.

    Trump is despicable and I really worry this is playing right into his hands.
    It has moved the narrative on from his coronavirus failing and he gets to play the tough man.
    He's not a tough man. He's an arsonist. An evil, white supremacist bigotted narcissist that has spread the flames of hate. He's scum incarnate.
    I'll put you down as a maybe.

    Yes, Philip was way to kind to Trump.
    I can't understand what America has done to deserve a President so awful.

    The are no words that describe how catastrophic Trump is.
    "I can't understand what America has done to deserve a President so awful."

    Er, voted for him?
    In all fairness, a majority of Americans voted against him. Pretty sickening really that three million more voted for his opponent yet they get the blame for his presidency anyway. The Electoral College is an utterly stupid system.
    All electoral systems are liable to produce disproportionate results from time to time.

    There is no perfect system, because they all try and balance a complex number of factors, from fairness to stable government to maintaining historic geographical links to balancing different regions or groups.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413
    eadric said:

    IanB2 said:

    An interesting read. Friston is basically lining up with Oxford in arguing that one way or another there is now a significant level of immunity or resistance about. It remains my own view that this is the simplest explanation for what we are seeing in the high level data.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/31/covid-19-expert-karl-friston-germany-may-have-more-immunological-dark-matter

    I'm inclined that way, and certainly hoping so.
    Surely the reason Germans are less likely to die is partly explained by the fact they are less obese.

    Possibly the most successful country in tackling coronavius is Vietnam. Unheralded, but maybe true. It is also the least obese country in the world

    https://obesity.procon.org/global-obesity-levels/
    There was an interesting article on Mongolia if I can find it. A capital city of 1.5 million and daily flights to Wuhan.
    No deaths at all.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    TimT said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:
    That's a very good article.

    Trump is despicable and I really worry this is playing right into his hands.
    It has moved the narrative on from his coronavirus failing and he gets to play the tough man.
    He's not a tough man. He's an arsonist. An evil, white supremacist bigotted narcissist that has spread the flames of hate. He's scum incarnate.
    I'll put you down as a maybe.

    Yes, Philip was way to kind to Trump.
    I can't understand what America has done to deserve a President so awful.

    The are no words that describe how catastrophic Trump is.
    "I can't understand what America has done to deserve a President so awful."

    Er, voted for him?
    In all fairness, a majority of Americans voted against him. Pretty sickening really that three million more voted for his opponent yet they get the blame for his presidency anyway. The Electoral College is an utterly stupid system.
    As much as I hate Trump and despise him, the Electoral College makes sense.

    Hillary failed to campaign in swing states and reaped what she sowed. The Electoral College was designed to ensure that smaller states got a larger voice quite deliberately, the Electoral College could have been done to be proportional to state sizes but quite deliberately was distorted to give tiny states a larger voice.
    Which might make sense if one was electing a council of members to govern the country.

    But as one is electing a single president for the whole US, one person, one equal vote is the way forward.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    Foxy said:

    The lack of demand for the NHS is getting crazy at Winchester hospital, this week they are having meetings to discuss redundancies in all areas. They have 3 times the staff they need, they are not getting referrals from GPs and the whole Covid testing procedure is putting people off from having surgery. They were expecting some return to normality but it is not happening. They have just a few Covid patients and have not admitted any new ones for a while.

    Seriously? Redundancies? Hmmm.
    Absolutely, the major problem is they thought there was a pent up demand but it is not happening. Quite regularly there are more staff on a ward then patients. The staff have nothing to do. They are being forced to take annual leave. They can see no change coming and with Covid dying out it’s a situation that cant continue.
    My three NHS mates (one ward doc) broadly concur. Reckon it’s way too quiet, little to do, and the government has stoked up fear of hospitals so much that almost the only people in them are hospital staff and Covid sufferers. People aren’t reporting to hospital with other things, because they are scared. Their general view is that the lockdown needs to end for all but the highest risk groups, because the current situation is scaring people away from attending A&E despite their having good cause to do so.
    Personal anecdote != data alert

    My GP (who has been very active during this emergency) reckons that the excess deaths are not so much hidden COVID, as old(er) people not going to the hospital for fear of COVID.

    Given she has been signing death certificates...
    Why then are the excess deaths strongly correlated with the covid deaths geographically? They are not occurring evenly, though the lockdown is applied evenly.
    She obviously didn't give specifics, but mentioned: pre-existing conditions that weren't being checked and heart attacks.
    Perhaps she just isn't very good at diagnosing covid. Sudden cardiac death is a recognised presentation.

    https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00059-020-04924-0
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    https://twitter.com/alexsalvinews/status/1267188439482462208

    I'm on at 340/1 for Veep.

    Still available at 29.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    eadric said:

    IanB2 said:

    An interesting read. Friston is basically lining up with Oxford in arguing that one way or another there is now a significant level of immunity or resistance about. It remains my own view that this is the simplest explanation for what we are seeing in the high level data.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/31/covid-19-expert-karl-friston-germany-may-have-more-immunological-dark-matter

    I'm inclined that way, and certainly hoping so.
    Surely the reason Germans are less likely to die is partly explained by the fact they are less obese.

    Possibly the most successful country in tackling coronavius is Vietnam. Unheralded, but maybe true. It is also the least obese country in the world

    https://obesity.procon.org/global-obesity-levels/
    Indeed, it’s likely.

    Get fit. Fight the virus.

    Might be a better slogan. Instead we are encouraging people to do sweet FA, scaring them into inactivity.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:
    That's a very good article.

    Trump is despicable and I really worry this is playing right into his hands.
    It has moved the narrative on from his coronavirus failing and he gets to play the tough man.
    He's not a tough man. He's an arsonist. An evil, white supremacist bigotted narcissist that has spread the flames of hate. He's scum incarnate.
    I'll put you down as a maybe.

    Yes, Philip was way to kind to Trump.
    I can't understand what America has done to deserve a President so awful.

    The are no words that describe how catastrophic Trump is.
    "I can't understand what America has done to deserve a President so awful."

    Er, voted for him?
    In all fairness, a majority of Americans voted against him. Pretty sickening really that three million more voted for his opponent yet they get the blame for his presidency anyway. The Electoral College is an utterly stupid system.
    All electoral systems are liable to produce disproportionate results from time to time.

    There is no perfect system, because they all try and balance a complex number of factors, from fairness to stable government to maintaining historic geographical links to balancing different regions or groups.
    True, but the EC is plain dumb.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217
    eadric said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:
    That's a very good article.

    Trump is despicable and I really worry this is playing right into his hands.
    Bottom line is that he believes in the knee on the neck.
    When Colin Kaepernick took the knee in protest he was sacked and vilified by Trump, amongst others.

    That is how peaceful protest is treated in the USA.
    What's more Trump literally called for violent disorder against elected authorities just a matter of weeks ago.
    This American Carnage starts here!
    Can't see how a nation in flames helps the Head of State tbh.
    Particularly when he doesn't seem able or even willing to do owt about it other than make it worse with tweeting.
    Trump doesn't care who the minorities vote for, they're a minority. He wins by scaring whites into voting for him.

    I worry the riots are going to play into his hands. They shouldn't, but he's an arsonist gleefully playing with fire.
    CNN playing into his hands at the moment. Straight away taken the bait on ANTIFA, already got the talking heads on Russia, Russia, Russia and that he can't designate them as a terrorist group.

    A lot of middle America will see black hodded youth, smashing, looting and burning shit down and think hold on he is trying to do something about them and the usual suspects are implicitly defending them.
    Silent majority election.*


    * with added dose of china hate.
    Excommunicating Antifa is super clever.

    For a start Antifa are quite repulsive, and horribly violent, so it is justified, morally.

    It will enrage a certain type of lefty Democrat, who will over-react: even better for Trump. Also Antifa represent a certain kind of upper middle class entitled wanky left wing twat, so it will solidify Trump's base in conjoined hatred.

    It's a very deft move in the chess game of the culture war





    Is it deft?

    It may very well lead to him being re-elected in 2020, but will that work out well for Trump or America or the Republican Party?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    The lack of demand for the NHS is getting crazy at Winchester hospital, this week they are having meetings to discuss redundancies in all areas. They have 3 times the staff they need, they are not getting referrals from GPs and the whole Covid testing procedure is putting people off from having surgery. They were expecting some return to normality but it is not happening. They have just a few Covid patients and have not admitted any new ones for a while.

    Seriously? Redundancies? Hmmm.
    Absolutely, the major problem is they thought there was a pent up demand but it is not happening. Quite regularly there are more staff on a ward then patients. The staff have nothing to do. They are being forced to take annual leave. They can see no change coming and with Covid dying out it’s a situation that cant continue.
    My three NHS mates (one ward doc) broadly concur. Reckon it’s way too quiet, little to do, and the government has stoked up fear of hospitals so much that almost the only people in them are hospital staff and Covid sufferers. People aren’t reporting to hospital with other things, because they are scared. Their general view is that the lockdown needs to end for all but the highest risk groups, because the current situation is scaring people away from attending A&E despite their having good cause to do so.
    Personal anecdote != data alert

    My GP (who has been very active during this emergency) reckons that the excess deaths are not so much hidden COVID, as old(er) people not going to the hospital for fear of COVID.

    Given she has been signing death certificates...
    Why then are the excess deaths strongly correlated with the covid deaths geographically? They are not occurring evenly, though the lockdown is applied evenly.
    She obviously didn't give specifics, but mentioned: pre-existing conditions that weren't being checked and heart attacks.
    That still doesn't explain the geographic correlation.

    I would agree - hence the personal anecdote level warning.

    I have a feeling that this will only be resolved as a result of a Phd by someone analysing the data down to individual death certificate level and back.

    She was very, very worried about the "not attending" at hospitals - has been working through lists of patients with serious conditions to try and persuade them to go to hospital.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    edited May 2020

    Why the swing back to the Tories?

    Because the surge of ludicrous moralistic anger has subsided and people have regained a sense of perspective - as some of us might have predicted :smile:
    Some of us on both sides predicted it too you are naive CHB if you thought Lab short term bounce would last.

    When there is a 2nd wave and or massive rise in unemployment there will be a longer term effect.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    Although I am still REALLY curious about this one datapoint here:

    https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1266057459334078466?s=20

    I've not seen it replicated anywhere else

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    eadric said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eadric said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:
    That's a very good article.

    Trump is despicable and I really worry this is playing right into his hands.
    Bottom line is that he believes in the knee on the neck.
    When Colin Kaepernick took the knee in protest he was sacked and vilified by Trump, amongst others.

    That is how peaceful protest is treated in the USA.
    What's more Trump literally called for violent disorder against elected authorities just a matter of weeks ago.
    This American Carnage starts here!
    Can't see how a nation in flames helps the Head of State tbh.
    Particularly when he doesn't seem able or even willing to do owt about it other than make it worse with tweeting.
    Trump doesn't care who the minorities vote for, they're a minority. He wins by scaring whites into voting for him.

    I worry the riots are going to play into his hands. They shouldn't, but he's an arsonist gleefully playing with fire.
    CNN playing into his hands at the moment. Straight away taken the bait on ANTIFA, already got the talking heads on Russia, Russia, Russia and that he can't designate them as a terrorist group.

    A lot of middle America will see black hodded youth, smashing, looting and burning shit down and think hold on he is trying to do something about them and the usual suspects are implicitly defending them.
    Silent majority election.*


    * with added dose of china hate.
    Excommunicating Antifa is super clever.

    For a start Antifa are quite repulsive, and horribly violent, so it is justified, morally.

    It will enrage a certain type of lefty Democrat, who will over-react: even better for Trump. Also Antifa represent a certain kind of upper middle class entitled wanky left wing twat, so it will solidify Trump's base in conjoined hatred.

    It's a very deft move in the chess game of the culture war





    Is it deft?

    It may very well lead to him being re-elected in 2020, but will that work out well for Trump or America or the Republican Party?
    lol. It is touching you wonder if Trump thinks beyond his re-election in 2020. The man is demented and old, he just wants a 2nd term so he can say YAH BOO to the nay sayers. I doubt he cares, or has a clue, what he would do with that 2nd term
    He hasn't a clue what he will do in 30 secs time never mind next year.

    The man is a human goldfish.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    eadric said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eadric said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:
    That's a very good article.

    Trump is despicable and I really worry this is playing right into his hands.
    Bottom line is that he believes in the knee on the neck.
    When Colin Kaepernick took the knee in protest he was sacked and vilified by Trump, amongst others.

    That is how peaceful protest is treated in the USA.
    What's more Trump literally called for violent disorder against elected authorities just a matter of weeks ago.
    This American Carnage starts here!
    Can't see how a nation in flames helps the Head of State tbh.
    Particularly when he doesn't seem able or even willing to do owt about it other than make it worse with tweeting.
    Trump doesn't care who the minorities vote for, they're a minority. He wins by scaring whites into voting for him.

    I worry the riots are going to play into his hands. They shouldn't, but he's an arsonist gleefully playing with fire.
    CNN playing into his hands at the moment. Straight away taken the bait on ANTIFA, already got the talking heads on Russia, Russia, Russia and that he can't designate them as a terrorist group.

    A lot of middle America will see black hodded youth, smashing, looting and burning shit down and think hold on he is trying to do something about them and the usual suspects are implicitly defending them.
    Silent majority election.*


    * with added dose of china hate.
    Excommunicating Antifa is super clever.

    For a start Antifa are quite repulsive, and horribly violent, so it is justified, morally.

    It will enrage a certain type of lefty Democrat, who will over-react: even better for Trump. Also Antifa represent a certain kind of upper middle class entitled wanky left wing twat, so it will solidify Trump's base in conjoined hatred.

    It's a very deft move in the chess game of the culture war





    Is it deft?

    It may very well lead to him being re-elected in 2020, but will that work out well for Trump or America or the Republican Party?
    lol. It is touching you wonder if Trump thinks beyond his re-election in 2020. The man is demented and old, he just wants a 2nd term so he can say YAH BOO to the nay sayers. I doubt he cares, or has a clue, what he would do with that 2nd term
    He hasn't a clue what he will do in 30 secs time never mind next year.

    The man is a human goldfish.
    Same colour too
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited May 2020
    "I wish they’d give us more detail on the statistics."

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/may/31/beth-rigby-im-going-to-have-to-get-off-telly-soon-because-ill-be-too-old

    Clearly doesn't read PB....or do much research.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191

    IanB2 said:

    An interesting read. Friston is basically lining up with Oxford in arguing that one way or another there is now a significant level of immunity or resistance about. It remains my own view that this is the simplest explanation for what we are seeing in the high level data.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/31/covid-19-expert-karl-friston-germany-may-have-more-immunological-dark-matter

    I'm inclined that way, and certainly hoping so.
    That may be true, but I doubt Germany will turn out to have significantly more of this than its worse-hit neighbours.

    The article linked to above contains no reason why Friston believes this, except for the circular "fewer Germans are getting ill because fewer Germans are getting this" (paraphrased), although I assume he has reasons. He talks about just using maths, which makes me suspicious.

    Personally I think the high amount of testing early on and a bit of luck allowed distancing measures before things got too out of control, nothing mysterious or special about Germans.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    Although I am still REALLY curious about this one datapoint here:

    https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1266057459334078466?s=20

    I've not seen it replicated anywhere else

    Deaths are up in the SW too, in this article from the Health Service Journal on Friday:

    https://www.hsj.co.uk/news/coronavirus-deaths-mapped/7027212.article

    "Deaths in all regions had been falling steadily – and in London, rapidly. But there are now signs of the fall in the number of deaths slowing, or even beginning to rise.

    This is most noticeable in the south west region where weekly deaths bottomed out at 30 on 20 May but had risen to 46 by 27 May. This is especially worrying as death totals from 24 May onwards are likely to increase because of delays in reporting."
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    Foxy said:

    Although I am still REALLY curious about this one datapoint here:

    https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1266057459334078466?s=20

    I've not seen it replicated anywhere else

    Deaths are up in the SW too, in this article from the Health Service Journal on Friday:

    https://www.hsj.co.uk/news/coronavirus-deaths-mapped/7027212.article

    "Deaths in all regions had been falling steadily – and in London, rapidly. But there are now signs of the fall in the number of deaths slowing, or even beginning to rise.

    This is most noticeable in the south west region where weekly deaths bottomed out at 30 on 20 May but had risen to 46 by 27 May. This is especially worrying as death totals from 24 May onwards are likely to increase because of delays in reporting."
    cheers.

    maybe I'll get an answer tomorrow.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    "I wish they’d give us more detail on the statistics."

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/may/31/beth-rigby-im-going-to-have-to-get-off-telly-soon-because-ill-be-too-old

    Clearly doesn't read PB....or do much research.

    Too old? Nonsense!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,434

    TimT said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:
    That's a very good article.

    Trump is despicable and I really worry this is playing right into his hands.
    It has moved the narrative on from his coronavirus failing and he gets to play the tough man.
    He's not a tough man. He's an arsonist. An evil, white supremacist bigotted narcissist that has spread the flames of hate. He's scum incarnate.
    I'll put you down as a maybe.

    Yes, Philip was way to kind to Trump.
    I can't understand what America has done to deserve a President so awful.

    The are no words that describe how catastrophic Trump is.
    "I can't understand what America has done to deserve a President so awful."

    Er, voted for him?
    In all fairness, a majority of Americans voted against him. Pretty sickening really that three million more voted for his opponent yet they get the blame for his presidency anyway. The Electoral College is an utterly stupid system.
    As much as I hate Trump and despise him, the Electoral College makes sense.

    Hillary failed to campaign in swing states and reaped what she sowed. The Electoral College was designed to ensure that smaller states got a larger voice quite deliberately, the Electoral College could have been done to be proportional to state sizes but quite deliberately was distorted to give tiny states a larger voice.
    The EU system of Qualified Majority Voting is even more disproportionate in protecting the voice of smaller members of the EU. The same principle is at work.

    I read a commentary that argued that it was more important that electoral systems followed an agreed set of rules consistently, than that those rules were fair.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884

    "I wish they’d give us more detail on the statistics."

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/may/31/beth-rigby-im-going-to-have-to-get-off-telly-soon-because-ill-be-too-old

    Clearly doesn't read PB....or do much research.

    "I wish they’d give us more detail on the statistics."???

    You're a journalist. The government are, for good or ill, revealing almost every facet of the story.

    You have literally one job, Beth, one job.

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    I have no idea of how true any of this is

    Apparently some hacker group (Anonymous) has put out some very incendiary documents tonight according to social media

    Conspiracy theorists will however lap them up.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited May 2020

    "I wish they’d give us more detail on the statistics."

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/may/31/beth-rigby-im-going-to-have-to-get-off-telly-soon-because-ill-be-too-old

    Clearly doesn't read PB....or do much research.

    "I wish they’d give us more detail on the statistics."???

    You're a journalist. The government are, for good or ill, revealing almost every facet of the story.

    You have literally one job, Beth, one job.

    And not like you even have to work hard, as a number accounts on twitter (and here) do a lot of the heavy lifting.

    They really have been shown up during this crisis. They are great on home turf of political scandal, but when it requires some reading and research, we end up with Prof Peston getting everything wrong about the chemical industry and journalists shocked to find death records kept by the ONS go back further than 15 years.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    The lack of demand for the NHS is getting crazy at Winchester hospital, this week they are having meetings to discuss redundancies in all areas. They have 3 times the staff they need, they are not getting referrals from GPs and the whole Covid testing procedure is putting people off from having surgery. They were expecting some return to normality but it is not happening. They have just a few Covid patients and have not admitted any new ones for a while.

    Seriously? Redundancies? Hmmm.
    Absolutely, the major problem is they thought there was a pent up demand but it is not happening. Quite regularly there are more staff on a ward then patients. The staff have nothing to do. They are being forced to take annual leave. They can see no change coming and with Covid dying out it’s a situation that cant continue.
    My three NHS mates (one ward doc) broadly concur. Reckon it’s way too quiet, little to do, and the government has stoked up fear of hospitals so much that almost the only people in them are hospital staff and Covid sufferers. People aren’t reporting to hospital with other things, because they are scared. Their general view is that the lockdown needs to end for all but the highest risk groups, because the current situation is scaring people away from attending A&E despite their having good cause to do so.
    It must be leading to more non related Covid deaths. I’m also sure that some people think hospitals are overwhelmed with Covid patients, perhaps the government needs to do an advertising campaign
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    "I wish they’d give us more detail on the statistics."

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/may/31/beth-rigby-im-going-to-have-to-get-off-telly-soon-because-ill-be-too-old

    Clearly doesn't read PB....or do much research.

    "I wish they’d give us more detail on the statistics."???

    You're a journalist. The government are, for good or ill, revealing almost every facet of the story.

    You have literally one job, Beth, one job.

    And not like you even have to work hard, as a number accounts on twitter (and here) do a lot of the heavy lifting.
    Sounds like my friend I mentioned before, who is finding life hard in a world where journalism means having to use Excel.

    I can feel pity - it is hard for people to adapt to a world where the future belongs to the scientists and the engineers. Where the quest for truth ends in - how many sig. fig.?

    There's a reason why such people hate the Elon Musk types so very, very much.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191

    TimT said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:
    That's a very good article.

    Trump is despicable and I really worry this is playing right into his hands.
    It has moved the narrative on from his coronavirus failing and he gets to play the tough man.
    He's not a tough man. He's an arsonist. An evil, white supremacist bigotted narcissist that has spread the flames of hate. He's scum incarnate.
    I'll put you down as a maybe.

    Yes, Philip was way to kind to Trump.
    I can't understand what America has done to deserve a President so awful.

    The are no words that describe how catastrophic Trump is.
    "I can't understand what America has done to deserve a President so awful."

    Er, voted for him?
    In all fairness, a majority of Americans voted against him. Pretty sickening really that three million more voted for his opponent yet they get the blame for his presidency anyway. The Electoral College is an utterly stupid system.
    As much as I hate Trump and despise him, the Electoral College makes sense.

    Hillary failed to campaign in swing states and reaped what she sowed. The Electoral College was designed to ensure that smaller states got a larger voice quite deliberately, the Electoral College could have been done to be proportional to state sizes but quite deliberately was distorted to give tiny states a larger voice.
    The electoral college is an utterly stupid system.

    TimT said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:
    That's a very good article.

    Trump is despicable and I really worry this is playing right into his hands.
    It has moved the narrative on from his coronavirus failing and he gets to play the tough man.
    He's not a tough man. He's an arsonist. An evil, white supremacist bigotted narcissist that has spread the flames of hate. He's scum incarnate.
    I'll put you down as a maybe.

    Yes, Philip was way to kind to Trump.
    I can't understand what America has done to deserve a President so awful.

    The are no words that describe how catastrophic Trump is.
    "I can't understand what America has done to deserve a President so awful."

    Er, voted for him?
    In all fairness, a majority of Americans voted against him. Pretty sickening really that three million more voted for his opponent yet they get the blame for his presidency anyway. The Electoral College is an utterly stupid system.
    As much as I hate Trump and despise him, the Electoral College makes sense.

    Hillary failed to campaign in swing states and reaped what she sowed. The Electoral College was designed to ensure that smaller states got a larger voice quite deliberately, the Electoral College could have been done to be proportional to state sizes but quite deliberately was distorted to give tiny states a larger voice.
    The EU system of Qualified Majority Voting is even more disproportionate in protecting the voice of smaller members of the EU. The same principle is at work.

    I read a commentary that argued that it was more important that electoral systems followed an agreed set of rules consistently, than that those rules were fair.
    The two things are not remotely similar.

    If there was an EU wide vote to elect a president of the EU you might begin to have a point.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Floater said:

    I have no idea of how true any of this is

    Apparently some hacker group (Anonymous) has put out some very incendiary documents tonight according to social media

    Conspiracy theorists will however lap them up.

    Yes. Interesting stuff, but Fake News again?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878
    eadric said:


    For a start Antifa are quite repulsive, and horribly violent, so it is justified, morally.


    Officer Chauvin was horribly violent too...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482
    edited May 2020
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    The lack of demand for the NHS is getting crazy at Winchester hospital, this week they are having meetings to discuss redundancies in all areas. They have 3 times the staff they need, they are not getting referrals from GPs and the whole Covid testing procedure is putting people off from having surgery. They were expecting some return to normality but it is not happening. They have just a few Covid patients and have not admitted any new ones for a while.

    Seriously? Redundancies? Hmmm.
    Absolutely, the major problem is they thought there was a pent up demand but it is not happening. Quite regularly there are more staff on a ward then patients. The staff have nothing to do. They are being forced to take annual leave. They can see no change coming and with Covid dying out it’s a situation that cant continue.
    My three NHS mates (one ward doc) broadly concur. Reckon it’s way too quiet, little to do, and the government has stoked up fear of hospitals so much that almost the only people in them are hospital staff and Covid sufferers. People aren’t reporting to hospital with other things, because they are scared. Their general view is that the lockdown needs to end for all but the highest risk groups, because the current situation is scaring people away from attending A&E despite their having good cause to do so.
    Personal anecdote != data alert

    My GP (who has been very active during this emergency) reckons that the excess deaths are not so much hidden COVID, as old(er) people not going to the hospital for fear of COVID.

    Given she has been signing death certificates...
    Why then are the excess deaths strongly correlated with the covid deaths geographically? They are not occurring evenly, though the lockdown is applied evenly.
    She obviously didn't give specifics, but mentioned: pre-existing conditions that weren't being checked and heart attacks.
    Perhaps she just isn't very good at diagnosing covid. Sudden cardiac death is a recognised presentation.

    https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00059-020-04924-0
    You're not particularly great at diagnosing it yourself I seem to remember.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    The lack of demand for the NHS is getting crazy at Winchester hospital, this week they are having meetings to discuss redundancies in all areas. They have 3 times the staff they need, they are not getting referrals from GPs and the whole Covid testing procedure is putting people off from having surgery. They were expecting some return to normality but it is not happening. They have just a few Covid patients and have not admitted any new ones for a while.

    Seriously? Redundancies? Hmmm.
    Absolutely, the major problem is they thought there was a pent up demand but it is not happening. Quite regularly there are more staff on a ward then patients. The staff have nothing to do. They are being forced to take annual leave. They can see no change coming and with Covid dying out it’s a situation that cant continue.
    My three NHS mates (one ward doc) broadly concur. Reckon it’s way too quiet, little to do, and the government has stoked up fear of hospitals so much that almost the only people in them are hospital staff and Covid sufferers. People aren’t reporting to hospital with other things, because they are scared. Their general view is that the lockdown needs to end for all but the highest risk groups, because the current situation is scaring people away from attending A&E despite their having good cause to do so.
    It must be leading to more non related Covid deaths. I’m also sure that some people think hospitals are overwhelmed with Covid patients, perhaps the government needs to do an advertising campaign
    Are you not seeing hospital acquired Covid-19?

    A lot of places are, between 10 and 20% of cases are acquired in hospital.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/17/hospital-patients-england-coronavirus-covid-19
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    Foxy said:

    Although I am still REALLY curious about this one datapoint here:

    https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1266057459334078466?s=20

    I've not seen it replicated anywhere else

    Deaths are up in the SW too, in this article from the Health Service Journal on Friday:

    https://www.hsj.co.uk/news/coronavirus-deaths-mapped/7027212.article

    "Deaths in all regions had been falling steadily – and in London, rapidly. But there are now signs of the fall in the number of deaths slowing, or even beginning to rise.

    This is most noticeable in the south west region where weekly deaths bottomed out at 30 on 20 May but had risen to 46 by 27 May. This is especially worrying as death totals from 24 May onwards are likely to increase because of delays in reporting."
    image
  • TimT said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:
    That's a very good article.

    Trump is despicable and I really worry this is playing right into his hands.
    It has moved the narrative on from his coronavirus failing and he gets to play the tough man.
    He's not a tough man. He's an arsonist. An evil, white supremacist bigotted narcissist that has spread the flames of hate. He's scum incarnate.
    I'll put you down as a maybe.

    Yes, Philip was way to kind to Trump.
    I can't understand what America has done to deserve a President so awful.

    The are no words that describe how catastrophic Trump is.
    "I can't understand what America has done to deserve a President so awful."

    Er, voted for him?
    In all fairness, a majority of Americans voted against him. Pretty sickening really that three million more voted for his opponent yet they get the blame for his presidency anyway. The Electoral College is an utterly stupid system.
    As much as I hate Trump and despise him, the Electoral College makes sense.

    Hillary failed to campaign in swing states and reaped what she sowed. The Electoral College was designed to ensure that smaller states got a larger voice quite deliberately, the Electoral College could have been done to be proportional to state sizes but quite deliberately was distorted to give tiny states a larger voice.
    That notion is only credible in states that are viable for both parties though. No one was bothered with Wyoming or Rhode Island despite their delegate rich yield per capita population. It can't be fun being a Californian Republican or Texas Democrat - and there's millions of them.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608

    The lack of demand for the NHS is getting crazy at Winchester hospital, this week they are having meetings to discuss redundancies in all areas. They have 3 times the staff they need, they are not getting referrals from GPs and the whole Covid testing procedure is putting people off from having surgery. They were expecting some return to normality but it is not happening. They have just a few Covid patients and have not admitted any new ones for a while.

    Seriously? Redundancies? Hmmm.
    Absolutely, the major problem is they thought there was a pent up demand but it is not happening. Quite regularly there are more staff on a ward then patients. The staff have nothing to do. They are being forced to take annual leave. They can see no change coming and with Covid dying out it’s a situation that cant continue.
    My three NHS mates (one ward doc) broadly concur. Reckon it’s way too quiet, little to do, and the government has stoked up fear of hospitals so much that almost the only people in them are hospital staff and Covid sufferers. People aren’t reporting to hospital with other things, because they are scared. Their general view is that the lockdown needs to end for all but the highest risk groups, because the current situation is scaring people away from attending A&E despite their having good cause to do so.
    It must be leading to more non related Covid deaths. I’m also sure that some people think hospitals are overwhelmed with Covid patients, perhaps the government needs to do an advertising campaign
    Borrowed from Skegness?

    "A&E is so (neck) bracing!"
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Clint Eastwood is ninety today. Sobering.

    Good night all.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608
    Nigelb said:

    Clint Eastwood is ninety today. Sobering.

    Good night all.

    Shit birthday if he's sobering up on it....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608
    rcs1000 said:

    eadric said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:
    That's a very good article.

    Trump is despicable and I really worry this is playing right into his hands.
    Bottom line is that he believes in the knee on the neck.
    When Colin Kaepernick took the knee in protest he was sacked and vilified by Trump, amongst others.

    That is how peaceful protest is treated in the USA.
    What's more Trump literally called for violent disorder against elected authorities just a matter of weeks ago.
    This American Carnage starts here!
    Can't see how a nation in flames helps the Head of State tbh.
    Particularly when he doesn't seem able or even willing to do owt about it other than make it worse with tweeting.
    Trump doesn't care who the minorities vote for, they're a minority. He wins by scaring whites into voting for him.

    I worry the riots are going to play into his hands. They shouldn't, but he's an arsonist gleefully playing with fire.
    CNN playing into his hands at the moment. Straight away taken the bait on ANTIFA, already got the talking heads on Russia, Russia, Russia and that he can't designate them as a terrorist group.

    A lot of middle America will see black hodded youth, smashing, looting and burning shit down and think hold on he is trying to do something about them and the usual suspects are implicitly defending them.
    Silent majority election.*


    * with added dose of china hate.
    Excommunicating Antifa is super clever.

    For a start Antifa are quite repulsive, and horribly violent, so it is justified, morally.

    It will enrage a certain type of lefty Democrat, who will over-react: even better for Trump. Also Antifa represent a certain kind of upper middle class entitled wanky left wing twat, so it will solidify Trump's base in conjoined hatred.

    It's a very deft move in the chess game of the culture war





    Is it deft?

    It may very well lead to him being re-elected in 2020, but will that work out well for Trump or America or the Republican Party?
    It will work out better for Trump than not being re-elected, yes.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited May 2020
    Those on twitter thinking they are oh so clever to compare ANTIFA to historic figures who genuinely stood up to fascism are as bad as Trump nonsense of "good people on both sides" in response to white nationalists.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    It's a natural consequence of the lockdown, isn't it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    Scott_xP said:
    Tories up 1% on GE19 now then.

    Boris bounce tiny now but has returned
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,600
    Trump had probably decided to outlaw ANTIFA a few years ago, but had always planned to make the announcement about 6 months before this year's election.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Think you'll have to use the car.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Reports a semi-truck has just ploughed into people on a bridge in Minneapolis.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    RobD said:

    It's a natural consequence of the lockdown, isn't it?
    It’s also completely unenforceable. What a waste of everyone’s time.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Pulpstar said:

    Think you'll have to use the car.
    Urrgh.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    It's a natural consequence of the lockdown, isn't it?
    It’s also completely unenforceable. What a waste of everyone’s time.
    People shouldn't be going round other households, that's sort of the entire point of the lockdown!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Wait, I thought Churchill was a racist imperialist? Has the old boy been rehabilitated? :D
    https://twitter.com/thesimonevans/status/1267218037196771328?s=21
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited May 2020
    This is really out of control now. There are a number of clips of random white folk being badly beaten trying to stop looting, an NBA player badly beating a guy who broke the window on his truck and now somebody has driven a truck at a crowd.

    And of course Trump doesn't do deescalation.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413
    Pulpstar said:

    Think you'll have to use the car.
    Just so long as it is no more than 6. 8 if in Scotland.
    You don't have a stretch limo by any chance?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217
    kamski said:

    IanB2 said:

    An interesting read. Friston is basically lining up with Oxford in arguing that one way or another there is now a significant level of immunity or resistance about. It remains my own view that this is the simplest explanation for what we are seeing in the high level data.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/31/covid-19-expert-karl-friston-germany-may-have-more-immunological-dark-matter

    I'm inclined that way, and certainly hoping so.
    That may be true, but I doubt Germany will turn out to have significantly more of this than its worse-hit neighbours.

    The article linked to above contains no reason why Friston believes this, except for the circular "fewer Germans are getting ill because fewer Germans are getting this" (paraphrased), although I assume he has reasons. He talks about just using maths, which makes me suspicious.

    Personally I think the high amount of testing early on and a bit of luck allowed distancing measures before things got too out of control, nothing mysterious or special about Germans.

    - Lots of testing
    - People are more trusting of their government
    - More light manufacturing that could be converted to PPE early on
    - Few high-rises and generally less dense cities
    - Metro and underground nowhere near as crowded as in the UK (and the like)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    RobD said:

    It's a natural consequence of the lockdown, isn't it?
    It’s also completely unenforceable. What a waste of everyone’s time.
    They have crossed the threshold, now moving up the stairs, he has unbuttoned her blouse, she has undone his belt, all units go...
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    TimT said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:
    That's a very good article.

    Trump is despicable and I really worry this is playing right into his hands.
    It has moved the narrative on from his coronavirus failing and he gets to play the tough man.
    He's not a tough man. He's an arsonist. An evil, white supremacist bigotted narcissist that has spread the flames of hate. He's scum incarnate.
    I'll put you down as a maybe.

    Yes, Philip was way to kind to Trump.
    I can't understand what America has done to deserve a President so awful.

    The are no words that describe how catastrophic Trump is.
    "I can't understand what America has done to deserve a President so awful."

    Er, voted for him?
    In all fairness, a majority of Americans voted against him. Pretty sickening really that three million more voted for his opponent yet they get the blame for his presidency anyway. The Electoral College is an utterly stupid system.
    As much as I hate Trump and despise him, the Electoral College makes sense.

    Hillary failed to campaign in swing states and reaped what she sowed. The Electoral College was designed to ensure that smaller states got a larger voice quite deliberately, the Electoral College could have been done to be proportional to state sizes but quite deliberately was distorted to give tiny states a larger voice.
    In practice the electoral college doesn't do anything make small states more important. (The Senate is a very different story.)

    Look at the graph here.
    https://theweek.com/articles/665750/which-states-got-screwed-worst-by-electoral-college-2016

    The states most underweight in the electoral college are Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, New York, Virginia, Michigan. With the exception of New York, every one of those is a swing state, lavished with attention by the presidential campaigns.

    The states most overweight are places like Wyoming and Vermont, which are completely ignored for the purposes of presidential elections.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,052
    edited May 2020



    As much as I hate Trump and despise him, the Electoral College makes sense.

    Hillary failed to campaign in swing states and reaped what she sowed. The Electoral College was designed to ensure that smaller states got a larger voice quite deliberately, the Electoral College could have been done to be proportional to state sizes but quite deliberately was distorted to give tiny states a larger voice.

    The electoral college makes no sense at all.

    It may just possibly have made sense in the late 18th century, when the overwhelming needs were to keep slavery legal and prevent small states from seceding, but nowadays state loyalties are much weaker and the important thing is to ensure that whoever is President has a mandate. Which the electoral college has failed to do twice in the last twenty years.

    Read Federalist #68 - it was designed to frustrate democracy, not to facilitate it, again understandable in 1790, but not in 2020.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited May 2020
    Jesus...apparently this guy was private security...but man some cos-playing rioter with an AR15, anything could have happened.

    https://twitter.com/CalebJHull/status/1266883740216823814?s=20

    https://twitter.com/CalebJHull/status/1266885259548860419?s=20

    https://twitter.com/CalebJHull/status/1266975102811492352?s=20
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,052
    rcs1000 said:


    Back in 2007, the EZ looked healthy: it had low unemployment, and inflation, and relatively robust economic growth. But that hid massive structural issues. Growth was the consequence of Spaniards borrowing on their houses to buy German cars.

    Note, I'm not saying the EZ has a healthy economy. I'm saying that the hidden unbalances have largely been unwound.

    I might also suggest the UK has much worse structural imbalances than the Eurozone. (We have many, many things that are better than the EZ. But lots of the things the EZ was guilty of in 2007, we are now guilty of.)

    But in many other measures, imbalances have grown (economic growth, Target 2 liabilities, asset prices, etc.).

    Imbalances are a prime example of the waterbed effect, as economists used to call it about 15 years ago.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413
    Still unconvinced that any of these scenes benefit a law and order strongman.
    Establishing Law and Order takes slightly more effort than merely twèeting the words.
    Even if you do so in CAPITALS!
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019
    IanB2 said:


    Why do we need continuous deterrent anyway, nowadays? The sailing schedules are secret and the threat that one may be out there, or could quickly set sail, should be more than enough.

    Isn't hoofing one out to sea in times of tension the very essence of an escalation event? So if you think we need them as a deterrent, we need to have them continuously.

    I don't think we need them as a country (does Germany? clearly not. so neither do we), but unfortunately they are part of the current global security balance, which we upset at our peril.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    There is a new video of the George Floyd incident. Seems like they had him in the back of the cop car, some sort of struggle, he tries to flee out of the opposite door, and then they pin him to the ground.
This discussion has been closed.