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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jo Biden’s VP pick – why we shouldn’t rule out Elizabeth Warren
In recent weeks the Senator from Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren, has appeared to be falling back in the race to become the vice presidential nominee for the Democrats at the White House election in November. In the betting she’s now dropped to third favourite behind Harris and Klobuchar.
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Obama seems to like her a lot and obviously has Bidens ear but the donors don't like her at all. I have a feeling it she has more of a chance then people think.
I dont think Warren's age is an issue either since she comes across as someone in their late 50's rather than 70's and is rather energetic for her age.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8332719/Fears-global-trade-war-China-Beijing-slaps-80-cent-tariff-Australian-exports.html
Writing Boris off again!
https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1262413408466604032
The import tax will remain in place for five years, and is expected to wipe out Australian sales into the lucrative market.
Typically, at least half of Australia's barley exports would be bound for China, trade that was estimated to be worth $1.5 billion in 2018 but due to drought fell to $600 million in 2019.
https://amp.abc.net.au/article/12261108
This will not be a positive for mid-sized, open economies like ours.
So, that means that Russia and Germany (the number two and three producers) will end up selling some of their exports to China instead of to (for example) the UK or Korea. Those countries will then need to buy barley from somewhere. And who now has barley to spare? That would be Australia.
The owners of dry bulk vessels will be rubbing their hands. But the actual impact on the world (or Australia) will be minimal.
Wearing a surgical mask can reduce the spread by 75% study claims.
Well there's a surprise.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-19/coronavirus-rental-hardship-pushed-down-the-line/12259322
Yes, I know it’s about Oz. But many of the features are similar to ones I’m seeing here.
I don’t have a mortgage on my rental property, so if my tenant had to pause payments (which so far she hasn’t) I wouldn’t be losing vast sums of money even if I let her live there rent free. But it could well be carnage for those who do.
https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1262402708654473216
Neither condition exists at present.
You can afford a higher R if its the young and healthy rather than the more vulnerable.
At least Wales are not fishy.
Between electoral defeat and leaving office Trump decides to put China back into the stone age.
Good plan.
Between the first results in Virginia and the announcement Trump has lost, Pence finally declares Trump insane.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1262461742598295552?s=20
An observation or two as it has been nine weeks since I worked other than at home.
There are apparently 120,000 workers based at Canary Wharf and 99% of them have been working at home (what @NerysHughes calls "working at home" in the public sector apparently) for the past two months. Mrs Stodge is one of them and she is working a full day with plenty of work.
One of the clients for whom I am helping with office re-configuration is themselves connected to a bank in one of the towers and the big problem there is lift capacity and social distancing in lifts. The latest thinking id 10-15% of capacity in the big office blocks maximum so that mean while 20,000 come back, 100,000 won't and what impact will that have on all the support services in the Canary Wharf complex such as the myriad of places to get lunch?
I think my small firm will give up its office space and decide to rent fully furnished meeting and Conference facilities later on. We are conducting business quite reasonably via a mixture of videoconferencing platforms (not Zoom). Some earlier client projections of 50% capacity now look hopelessly optimistic and until there's a vaccine available it may be 20% capacity at offices at most.
My first foray to East Ham High Street in two months today - queues at the banks and the supermarkets but foot traffic well below normal. Bank opening hours of 10 to 2 puts a lot of pressure on and I would imagine if the positive trends of recent days continue for the next 10 days a relieved Boris Johnson will happily tell us we can go to the next phase of easing restrictions on June 1st.
Still only a minority wearing masks - 20% at most. It's been my experience the group most likely to ignore the restrictions has been young men (irrespective of race, colour or creed). I suppose at 21 you think you are invincible - it's too long ago and I can't remember.
Final thought - UK Services PMI flash number for May due on Thursday. April was 13.4 - will we be in the 20s? Manufacturing for April was 32.6. Even if we return to nearer normal in June, Q2 2020 is going to be ugly.
A hot war is in nobody's interests but it's clear a cold war and policy of containment are coming.
There is no way someone would be allowed to start back at my workplace if there was a possibility that their health was a risk to either themselves or to other employees.
They would need to have a signed doctor's fitness to work form and an assessment from the H&S manager.
What I would like to know is what is the equivalent procedure for care homes ?
Given the legal liabilities surely there must be one ?
You’re right though, the government are pretty shit.
If bar and shops and restaurants around Canary Wharf lose business then their equivalents in the residential areas will gain it.
Chernobyl is close enough to Belarus for him to consider it Belarusian.
Similarly, Staffordshire is sufficiently close to Offa’s Dyke for him to regard it as part of Wales.
I'm also interested in your assertion Starmer would take us back into the Single Market (which would entail Freedom of Movement of course). I see no evidence that will be the Labour position in 2024.
If there is No Deal and we are trading on WTO rules from 2021 onwards, the Labour position could be to seek to obtain an FTA with the EU if they come into Government in 2024. If there is an FTA arranged during this year it might be labour will simply leave it as it is and continue what is likely to be the unfinished process of securing trade deals beyond the EU (China, Russia, India, Brazil?)
Note the 'again'.
We lost control by failing to lock down early enough. As we all know.
I shall go to bed.
Good night, one and all.
In terms of this disease young men (unless they've got some serious medical problems) are, to all intents and purposes, invincible. They're highly unlikely to fall seriously ill and are more likely to be killed by a meteorite strike than by the virus.
I see no reason why most office-based workers should ever return to commuting, on a full-time basis at any rate. Canary Wharf and half the office blocks in the City of London might as well be dynamited and the land repurposed for homes and parks. Needless to say the bulk of those support services will fold and their employees will end up on the scrapheap.
If it was prepared to offer a genuine Canada style FTA Boris would not need to do WTO terms Brexit.
So whether Starmer takes the UK back into the EEA or just agrees a FTA with the EU in terms of regulatory alignment we will still be de facto in the single market either way
This, using genetics to trace minor strains of the virus, is the sort of work that should have been done right from the start (and I hope it was, in other prohects [edit]). But the info seems to havbe taken a while to filter out to the community.
... Trump said he consulted with the White House doctor about taking the drug, but it was not recommended for him.
"I asked him what do you think. He said, 'Well if you’d like it.' I said, 'Yeah I’d like it. I’d like to take it.'"
He said he's been taking the drug for about a week-and-a-half and based his decision on positive reviews he's heard from frontline healthcare workers.
"So far, I seem to be ok," Trump said...
The problem is while young men may be statistically invincible the people with whom they interact may not be and if young people are asymptomatic that won't stop them transmitting the virus to older and more vulnerable people.
Canary Wharf is an extreme example but many towns are dependent on office workers to keep the local economy active through buying lunch, using other services etc. If the office workers don't come back and the value of commercial real estate collapses, some of the regeneration projects are going to be disasters.
She brings the Bernie progressives.....
If you're right that 3.8% of households have the virus then in order to have a 38% chance of at least one staff member having the virus you'd need only 12 staff. However I suspect most homes have many more than 12 staff. (1 - 0.962^12)
If you're right that 3.8% of households then if a home has 25 staff members there's there's a 62% chance that at least one of those staff does have the virus.
From our side, I understand the view we didn't go through all the pain of leaving just to have a BINO with forced regulatory alignment.
That doesn't mean such positions will hold ad infinitum - the problem with Canada + (or ++) as I understood it was it didn't apply to Services which is a significant if not pre-eminent part of the UK economy.
The Swiss got the best deal in my view and perhaps we might get somewhere offering a series of bilateral treaties.
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1849
Worth noting that in both HCQ and control groups, about a fifth were still producing virus 28 days after enrolment.
It was reasonable to trial it, but it got completely out of hand.
The big question, in that case, is the extent to which more vulnerable people are exposed. Frankly, if most of the shielded cohort continue to shield and many old people, especially the more frail and fearful ones, also carry on sealing themselves off then the disease could run through the populace at a steady rate and still not come close to buggering the hospitals. We just don't know.
Eventually homes, leisure and cultural venues could help the cities to reinvent themselves, but in the short and medium term it's reasonable to suppose that there will be a large-scale relocation of economic activity out of them. If you have a nice house in a leafy suburb or country town and the new reality is that you're now working in it as well, then it stands to reason that most of the time you're saving on commuting is going to be spent on shopping and leisure activities closer to home. Cities risk ending up consisting largely of hollowed-out centres surrounded by the homes of the young and the urban poor.
There'll be plenty of blame to throw round later but we need to establish what happened, why it happened and how we can prevent something like this happening again in a second wave.
I'd go further and say this is the time to be having a proper national debate about we treat the elderly - what their place in society is and what they should expect from us and what we should expect from them.
Should the onus switch back from care in the residential home sector to care within the family with proper Government financial help to expedite it?
Should we be talking about providing the option for a dignified end to a life if an individual of sound mind requests it? What about the scourge of dementia? How do we provide proper dementia care while recognising the real victims aren't always the individuals but their relatives?
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/brexit-poll-eu-rules-voters_uk_5ec2697ac5b6092e8e0c7ff9?utm_hp_ref=uk-politics&?ncid=newsltukhpmgpols
In any event, I don't think Biden will go with a white woman, he needs minority turnout.
The only way I see to not have an epidemic in care homes is not to have an epidemic in society.
I can't think of a single nation anywhere in the world to have a societal pandemic that hasn't seen it enter care homes as a result. As much as possible needs to be done to protect them but if the virus is wild in society then some staff will get it.
https://twitter.com/davidalim/status/1262482382306840577
Families working on their own are very likely to lack the skills and the personnel to cope. And so what if the state pays for a carer to come in a couple of times a day? They're still stuck with the crippled relative for the remaining 22 hours of every day, in a home that may not be adapted to their needs and would be ruinously expensive to convert even if it were possible to do so. And, of course, we know what happens as soon as a killer disease goes into circulation. Carers moving between homes are going to spread it everywhere.
Scientist are still investigating but beware closely packed markets, vigorous dance classes, loud bars and choirs"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/superspreader-events-may-responsible-80-percent-coronavirus/