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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jo Biden’s VP pick – why we shouldn’t rule out Elizabeth Warre

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  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    alterego said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Like our own dear Prime Minister, perhaps?

    Keep an eye on PMQs. Last week, Boris seemed to struggle to keep up with SKS. If this goes on, he might step down sooner rather than later. For betting purposes, though, remember the summer recess starts soon and there is also paternity leave to come.
    Hague was brilliant at PMQs.
    You are missing the point, which was that Boris missed the point. It is nothing to so with Starmer.

    IDS, or whoever else complained anonymously about PMQs preparation got it wrong. Of course Number 10 will have expected SKS's question about excess deaths in care homes; of course Boris will have been briefed, and answers added to his folder. The point is he did not even realise what SKS asked. It sailed straight over the Prime Minister's head. Hence the inference he has not fully recovered from his illness.

    Time is a great healer but if not, there is always retirement.
    PMQs is irrelevant, if it was decisive Hague and Howard and maybe even Ed Miliband would have been elected.

    If the Tories lose Boris they face as long a period in the wilderness as they did once Thatcher went, genius leaders like Boris and Maggie and Blair only come around once a generation at best
    Just imagine describing Boris Johnson as a “genius”
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,931
    OT today is the last day to buy menthol cigarettes. Banned by the EU. #TakeBackControl.
    https://metro.co.uk/2020/05/18/why-are-menthol-cigarettes-banned-tobacco-skinny-cigarettes-12720193/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    HYUFD said:

    alterego said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Like our own dear Prime Minister, perhaps?

    Keep an eye on PMQs. Last week, Boris seemed to struggle to keep up with SKS. If this goes on, he might step down sooner rather than later. For betting purposes, though, remember the summer recess starts soon and there is also paternity leave to come.
    Hague was brilliant at PMQs.
    You are missing the point, which was that Boris missed the point. It is nothing to so with Starmer.

    IDS, or whoever else complained anonymously about PMQs preparation got it wrong. Of course Number 10 will have expected SKS's question about excess deaths in care homes; of course Boris will have been briefed, and answers added to his folder. The point is he did not even realise what SKS asked. It sailed straight over the Prime Minister's head. Hence the inference he has not fully recovered from his illness.

    Time is a great healer but if not, there is always retirement.
    PMQs is irrelevant, if it was decisive Hague and Howard and maybe even Ed Miliband would have been elected.

    If the Tories lose Boris they face as long a period in the wilderness as they did once Thatcher went, genius leaders like Boris and Maggie and Blair only come around once a generation at best
    Just imagine describing Boris Johnson as a “genius”
    He is, alongside Churchill and Thatcher one of the 3 best Tory leaders of the last 100 years
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    HYUFD said:

    alterego said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Like our own dear Prime Minister, perhaps?

    Keep an eye on PMQs. Last week, Boris seemed to struggle to keep up with SKS. If this goes on, he might step down sooner rather than later. For betting purposes, though, remember the summer recess starts soon and there is also paternity leave to come.
    Hague was brilliant at PMQs.
    You are missing the point, which was that Boris missed the point. It is nothing to so with Starmer.

    IDS, or whoever else complained anonymously about PMQs preparation got it wrong. Of course Number 10 will have expected SKS's question about excess deaths in care homes; of course Boris will have been briefed, and answers added to his folder. The point is he did not even realise what SKS asked. It sailed straight over the Prime Minister's head. Hence the inference he has not fully recovered from his illness.

    Time is a great healer but if not, there is always retirement.
    PMQs is irrelevant, if it was decisive Hague and Howard and maybe even Ed Miliband would have been elected.

    If the Tories lose Boris they face as long a period in the wilderness as they did once Thatcher went, genius leaders like Boris and Maggie and Blair only come around once a generation at best
    Again, the point is not that SKS is brilliant but that Boris has been distinctly below par since his brush with mortality. That is why he may resign unless he recovers.

    Even a below par Boris is still far better than any of the alternatives
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,931
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    alterego said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Like our own dear Prime Minister, perhaps?

    Keep an eye on PMQs. Last week, Boris seemed to struggle to keep up with SKS. If this goes on, he might step down sooner rather than later. For betting purposes, though, remember the summer recess starts soon and there is also paternity leave to come.
    Hague was brilliant at PMQs.
    You are missing the point, which was that Boris missed the point. It is nothing to so with Starmer.

    IDS, or whoever else complained anonymously about PMQs preparation got it wrong. Of course Number 10 will have expected SKS's question about excess deaths in care homes; of course Boris will have been briefed, and answers added to his folder. The point is he did not even realise what SKS asked. It sailed straight over the Prime Minister's head. Hence the inference he has not fully recovered from his illness.

    Time is a great healer but if not, there is always retirement.
    PMQs is irrelevant, if it was decisive Hague and Howard and maybe even Ed Miliband would have been elected.

    If the Tories lose Boris they face as long a period in the wilderness as they did once Thatcher went, genius leaders like Boris and Maggie and Blair only come around once a generation at best
    Again, the point is not that SKS is brilliant but that Boris has been distinctly below par since his brush with mortality. That is why he may resign unless he recovers.

    Even a below par Boris is still far better than any of the alternatives
    Take another look at Sunak, who has been both charismatic and authoritative in a period where none of his Cabinet colleagues has been either.

    But that is irrelevant to the question of whether Boris has mentally recovered.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    alterego said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Like our own dear Prime Minister, perhaps?

    Keep an eye on PMQs. Last week, Boris seemed to struggle to keep up with SKS. If this goes on, he might step down sooner rather than later. For betting purposes, though, remember the summer recess starts soon and there is also paternity leave to come.
    Hague was brilliant at PMQs.
    You are missing the point, which was that Boris missed the point. It is nothing to so with Starmer.

    IDS, or whoever else complained anonymously about PMQs preparation got it wrong. Of course Number 10 will have expected SKS's question about excess deaths in care homes; of course Boris will have been briefed, and answers added to his folder. The point is he did not even realise what SKS asked. It sailed straight over the Prime Minister's head. Hence the inference he has not fully recovered from his illness.

    Time is a great healer but if not, there is always retirement.
    PMQs is irrelevant, if it was decisive Hague and Howard and maybe even Ed Miliband would have been elected.

    If the Tories lose Boris they face as long a period in the wilderness as they did once Thatcher went, genius leaders like Boris and Maggie and Blair only come around once a generation at best
    Just imagine describing Boris Johnson as a “genius”
    He is, alongside Churchill and Thatcher one of the 3 best Tory leaders of the last 100 years
    He hasn’t done anything of note. You’re deluded.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    alterego said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Like our own dear Prime Minister, perhaps?

    Keep an eye on PMQs. Last week, Boris seemed to struggle to keep up with SKS. If this goes on, he might step down sooner rather than later. For betting purposes, though, remember the summer recess starts soon and there is also paternity leave to come.
    Hague was brilliant at PMQs.
    You are missing the point, which was that Boris missed the point. It is nothing to so with Starmer.

    IDS, or whoever else complained anonymously about PMQs preparation got it wrong. Of course Number 10 will have expected SKS's question about excess deaths in care homes; of course Boris will have been briefed, and answers added to his folder. The point is he did not even realise what SKS asked. It sailed straight over the Prime Minister's head. Hence the inference he has not fully recovered from his illness.

    Time is a great healer but if not, there is always retirement.
    PMQs is irrelevant, if it was decisive Hague and Howard and maybe even Ed Miliband would have been elected.

    If the Tories lose Boris they face as long a period in the wilderness as they did once Thatcher went, genius leaders like Boris and Maggie and Blair only come around once a generation at best
    Just imagine describing Boris Johnson as a “genius”
    He is, alongside Churchill and Thatcher one of the 3 best Tory leaders of the last 100 years
    He hasn’t done anything of note. You’re deluded.
    He has won the biggest Tory majority for 32 years and delivered Brexit
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    alterego said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Like our own dear Prime Minister, perhaps?

    Keep an eye on PMQs. Last week, Boris seemed to struggle to keep up with SKS. If this goes on, he might step down sooner rather than later. For betting purposes, though, remember the summer recess starts soon and there is also paternity leave to come.
    Hague was brilliant at PMQs.
    You are missing the point, which was that Boris missed the point. It is nothing to so with Starmer.

    IDS, or whoever else complained anonymously about PMQs preparation got it wrong. Of course Number 10 will have expected SKS's question about excess deaths in care homes; of course Boris will have been briefed, and answers added to his folder. The point is he did not even realise what SKS asked. It sailed straight over the Prime Minister's head. Hence the inference he has not fully recovered from his illness.

    Time is a great healer but if not, there is always retirement.
    PMQs is irrelevant, if it was decisive Hague and Howard and maybe even Ed Miliband would have been elected.

    If the Tories lose Boris they face as long a period in the wilderness as they did once Thatcher went, genius leaders like Boris and Maggie and Blair only come around once a generation at best
    Again, the point is not that SKS is brilliant but that Boris has been distinctly below par since his brush with mortality. That is why he may resign unless he recovers.

    Even a below par Boris is still far better than any of the alternatives
    Take another look at Sunak, who has been both charismatic and authoritative in a period where none of his Cabinet colleagues has been either.

    But that is irrelevant to the question of whether Boris has mentally recovered.
    Sunak is an OK chancellor but genius he is not, at best he would be a slightly more charismatic John Major
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019

    Striking poll showing that mosty younger Leave voters hope for more environmental regulation after leaving the EU:

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/brexit-poll-eu-rules-voters_uk_5ec2697ac5b6092e8e0c7ff9?utm_hp_ref=uk-politics&?ncid=newsltukhpmgpols

    Ha. That'll happen.

    Fools.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,931
    edited May 2020
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    alterego said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Like our own dear Prime Minister, perhaps?

    Keep an eye on PMQs. Last week, Boris seemed to struggle to keep up with SKS. If this goes on, he might step down sooner rather than later. For betting purposes, though, remember the summer recess starts soon and there is also paternity leave to come.
    Hague was brilliant at PMQs.
    You are missing the point, which was that Boris missed the point. It is nothing to so with Starmer.

    IDS, or whoever else complained anonymously about PMQs preparation got it wrong. Of course Number 10 will have expected SKS's question about excess deaths in care homes; of course Boris will have been briefed, and answers added to his folder. The point is he did not even realise what SKS asked. It sailed straight over the Prime Minister's head. Hence the inference he has not fully recovered from his illness.

    Time is a great healer but if not, there is always retirement.
    PMQs is irrelevant, if it was decisive Hague and Howard and maybe even Ed Miliband would have been elected.

    If the Tories lose Boris they face as long a period in the wilderness as they did once Thatcher went, genius leaders like Boris and Maggie and Blair only come around once a generation at best
    Again, the point is not that SKS is brilliant but that Boris has been distinctly below par since his brush with mortality. That is why he may resign unless he recovers.

    Even a below par Boris is still far better than any of the alternatives
    Take another look at Sunak, who has been both charismatic and authoritative in a period where none of his Cabinet colleagues has been either.

    But that is irrelevant to the question of whether Boris has mentally recovered.
    Sunak is an OK chancellor but genius he is not, at best he would be a slightly more charismatic John Major
    You do remember that John Major won a bigger vote share than Boris?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    alterego said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Like our own dear Prime Minister, perhaps?

    Keep an eye on PMQs. Last week, Boris seemed to struggle to keep up with SKS. If this goes on, he might step down sooner rather than later. For betting purposes, though, remember the summer recess starts soon and there is also paternity leave to come.
    Hague was brilliant at PMQs.
    You are missing the point, which was that Boris missed the point. It is nothing to so with Starmer.

    IDS, or whoever else complained anonymously about PMQs preparation got it wrong. Of course Number 10 will have expected SKS's question about excess deaths in care homes; of course Boris will have been briefed, and answers added to his folder. The point is he did not even realise what SKS asked. It sailed straight over the Prime Minister's head. Hence the inference he has not fully recovered from his illness.

    Time is a great healer but if not, there is always retirement.
    PMQs is irrelevant, if it was decisive Hague and Howard and maybe even Ed Miliband would have been elected.

    If the Tories lose Boris they face as long a period in the wilderness as they did once Thatcher went, genius leaders like Boris and Maggie and Blair only come around once a generation at best
    Again, the point is not that SKS is brilliant but that Boris has been distinctly below par since his brush with mortality. That is why he may resign unless he recovers.

    Even a below par Boris is still far better than any of the alternatives
    Take another look at Sunak, who has been both charismatic and authoritative in a period where none of his Cabinet colleagues has been either.

    But that is irrelevant to the question of whether Boris has mentally recovered.
    Sunak is an OK chancellor but genius he is not, at best he would be a slightly more charismatic John Major
    You do remember that John Major won a bigger vote share than Boris?
    He didn't actually! In GB Major polled 42.8% in 1992 whilst Johnson managed 44.6% last year. However, Major did poll over 14 million votes - the highest ever vote total to date - though that reflected the much higher turnout.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    alterego said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Like our own dear Prime Minister, perhaps?

    Keep an eye on PMQs. Last week, Boris seemed to struggle to keep up with SKS. If this goes on, he might step down sooner rather than later. For betting purposes, though, remember the summer recess starts soon and there is also paternity leave to come.
    Hague was brilliant at PMQs.
    You are missing the point, which was that Boris missed the point. It is nothing to so with Starmer.

    IDS, or whoever else complained anonymously about PMQs preparation got it wrong. Of course Number 10 will have expected SKS's question about excess deaths in care homes; of course Boris will have been briefed, and answers added to his folder. The point is he did not even realise what SKS asked. It sailed straight over the Prime Minister's head. Hence the inference he has not fully recovered from his illness.

    Time is a great healer but if not, there is always retirement.
    PMQs is irrelevant, if it was decisive Hague and Howard and maybe even Ed Miliband would have been elected.

    If the Tories lose Boris they face as long a period in the wilderness as they did once Thatcher went, genius leaders like Boris and Maggie and Blair only come around once a generation at best
    Just imagine describing Boris Johnson as a “genius”
    He is, alongside Churchill and Thatcher one of the 3 best Tory leaders of the last 100 years
    He hasn’t done anything of note. You’re deluded.
    He has won the biggest Tory majority for 32 years and delivered Brexit
    Like I said, deluded.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    alterego said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Like our own dear Prime Minister, perhaps?

    Keep an eye on PMQs. Last week, Boris seemed to struggle to keep up with SKS. If this goes on, he might step down sooner rather than later. For betting purposes, though, remember the summer recess starts soon and there is also paternity leave to come.
    Hague was brilliant at PMQs.
    You are missing the point, which was that Boris missed the point. It is nothing to so with Starmer.

    IDS, or whoever else complained anonymously about PMQs preparation got it wrong. Of course Number 10 will have expected SKS's question about excess deaths in care homes; of course Boris will have been briefed, and answers added to his folder. The point is he did not even realise what SKS asked. It sailed straight over the Prime Minister's head. Hence the inference he has not fully recovered from his illness.

    Time is a great healer but if not, there is always retirement.
    PMQs is irrelevant, if it was decisive Hague and Howard and maybe even Ed Miliband would have been elected.

    If the Tories lose Boris they face as long a period in the wilderness as they did once Thatcher went, genius leaders like Boris and Maggie and Blair only come around once a generation at best
    Again, the point is not that SKS is brilliant but that Boris has been distinctly below par since his brush with mortality. That is why he may resign unless he recovers.

    Even a below par Boris is still far better than any of the alternatives
    Take another look at Sunak, who has been both charismatic and authoritative in a period where none of his Cabinet colleagues has been either.

    But that is irrelevant to the question of whether Boris has mentally recovered.
    Sunak is an OK chancellor but genius he is not, at best he would be a slightly more charismatic John Major
    Isn't it a bit early for judgments like that?

    He might be brilliant. Or might be terrible. Or he might be something in the middle. It's far too early to know for sure.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,335
    Covid Vaccine

    I have read news reports all day suggesting that, in effect, the Oxford Vaccine Groups first run at this didn't go well because the test animals given the vaccine contracted the virus. Yet when you delve into the results it didn't actually fail. Did it stop them contracting the virus? No, Did it protect the test animals from getting very ill after repeated exposures to high doses of the virus? Yes. Notably pneumonia seems to have been avoided in the test animals given the vaccine versus those not given the vaccine.

    Yet the media reports that it may be a dud. There seems to a misunderstanding that a vaccine will by default simply eliminate the disease and prevents infection when its role might be reducing severity of the disease i.e. control it.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217
    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I’ve now lost track as to whether it’s better to get the virus or “keep safe” from it. In the absence of a consistent view, maybe it’s best to have had it, and have not had it, simultaneously. So have a test, don’t read the result.

    The dream is to have been asymptomatic, produced antibodies and not even realise you had it.
    Indeed. That is everyone's dream.
    Thus blithely, and entirely innocently infecting your elderly family, colleagues and friends outside of a lockdown.
    And therefore inheriting.

    Brilliant.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    On topic, Biden is very cautious. I can't think of any example where he's taken the risky path, and a bunch where he's gone for the safe one. He wasn't convinced of the Bin Laden raid, he didn't run against Hillary, he just does the conventional thing.

    Picking Warren would be brave - he has a careful platform designed to avoid frightening centrist independents and never-Trump GOP, and Trump would reasonably argue that Biden has a good chance of dying and you'll end up with Warren left-wingery. This might still be worth it if it brought the unreconciled Bernie bros on board, but it won't - they hate her as much as anyone, and they'll say she stole it from Bernie by staying in the race and splitting his vote as part of a shadowy establishment conspiracy.

    So I think we should rule out Elizabeth Warren.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Yokes said:

    Covid Vaccine

    I have read news reports all day suggesting that, in effect, the Oxford Vaccine Groups first run at this didn't go well because the test animals given the vaccine contracted the virus. Yet when you delve into the results it didn't actually fail. Did it stop them contracting the virus? No, Did it protect the test animals from getting very ill after repeated exposures to high doses of the virus? Yes. Notably pneumonia seems to have been avoided in the test animals given the vaccine versus those not given the vaccine.

    Yet the media reports that it may be a dud. There seems to a misunderstanding that a vaccine will by default simply eliminate the disease and prevents infection when its role might be reducing severity of the disease i.e. control it.

    A truly successful vaccine would serve to eliminate the disease, but you’re right than even a partially effective one might have utility.

    I don’t think most commentators have written the Oxford vaccine off - and these are only lab animal results - but it might well be that other vaccines prove more effective.

    The very early results of the Moderna vaccine look promising, but again, the data is limited to a company news release about the antibody results in four individuals.

    In any event, it won’t be long before we know more.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    HYUFD said:
    Interesting article.

    By this definition, is the US under Trump a modern state ? :wink:

    ... Most early states were what Max Weber labeled “patrimonial”—that is, the state grew out of the household of the ruler and was based on personal relationships between the ruler and his friends and family. An impersonal state, by contrast, is centralized, bureaucratic, and operates according to rules rather than being governed by the mere whim of the ruler....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Like our own dear Prime Minister, perhaps?

    Keep an eye on PMQs. Last week, Boris seemed to struggle to keep up with SKS. If this goes on, he might step down sooner rather than later. For betting purposes, though, remember the summer recess starts soon and there is also paternity leave to come.
    I think it may be too early for that. I did hear an ICU doctor say you needed a month complete rest for every day spent there. Although others on here have argued it can be less.
    However, he does not look well. And I think he would have benefited from a much longer convalescence.
    But then again this government's bench in terms of public appeal and trust isn't deep.
    The only people who want to get rid of Boris are leftwingers as they fear him, with good reason as he is the best election winner the Tories have had since Thatcher
    I do think a trick was missed. And you were right and I was wrong. He was a great vote winner. However, for the benefit of the man himself he should have convalesced at least up until the birth. Then taken the paternity leave straight away.
    And come back in better form.
    It would have helped if his deputy weren't Raab of course.
    Raab had to be deputy and if not Raab it would be someone equally powerless. Boris and his consigliere ruthlessly centralised power so their enforced absence was bound to leave a vacuum.

    Boris can still take paternity leave to get him to the summer recess, followed by the recess itself, then the (presumably virtual) conference season. If he's not recovered by then, we could have a new Prime Minister by early 2021.
    Given he has disappeared again I thought he was on paternity leave or another holiday and would be due back any day.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    alterego said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Like our own dear Prime Minister, perhaps?

    Keep an eye on PMQs. Last week, Boris seemed to struggle to keep up with SKS. If this goes on, he might step down sooner rather than later. For betting purposes, though, remember the summer recess starts soon and there is also paternity leave to come.
    Hague was brilliant at PMQs.
    You are missing the point, which was that Boris missed the point. It is nothing to so with Starmer.

    IDS, or whoever else complained anonymously about PMQs preparation got it wrong. Of course Number 10 will have expected SKS's question about excess deaths in care homes; of course Boris will have been briefed, and answers added to his folder. The point is he did not even realise what SKS asked. It sailed straight over the Prime Minister's head. Hence the inference he has not fully recovered from his illness.

    Time is a great healer but if not, there is always retirement.
    PMQs is irrelevant, if it was decisive Hague and Howard and maybe even Ed Miliband would have been elected.

    If the Tories lose Boris they face as long a period in the wilderness as they did once Thatcher went, genius leaders like Boris and Maggie and Blair only come around once a generation at best
    Just imagine describing Boris Johnson as a “genius”
    He is, alongside Churchill and Thatcher one of the 3 best Tory leaders of the last 100 years
    Exceedingly low bar there.
This discussion has been closed.