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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The voting intention polls since LAB got its new leader

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Andy_JS said:

    Just cycled through a medium-sized town of about 80,000 people (which I haven't visited for about 6 weeks). It was like a ghost town. About 2 or 3 cars on the road.

    That sounds pretty normal for one in the morning.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The stable genius doesn’t quite get how infectious disease works....

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1258853971164368896

    That's a much watch clip.
    Trump's schtick has utterly fallen apart under the spotlight of Covid-19.

    Doesn't know what is required of him? Doesn't care? It holds a certain morbid fascination: just how much worse can his response get? And at what point does self-awareness kick in?
    No.

    No.

    Much worse.

    Never.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729

    Andrew said:


    Surely an aircraft is a mobile petri dish, recirculating air shared between 200 people ....

    The recirculating air itself isn't a problem iirc - it goes through a hepa filter every couple of minutes, which will catch cv19. No help if somebody sneezes on you directly of course.
    Bless you!
    A few yrs back i was on a olane to majorca. Up front there was someone coughing hhh hhh every minute or so. I was in the rear seats. I got to my holiday and within a vouple if hrs i was coughing just like the perso up front was. It ruined my holiday and a week after that.. i don't think i will be trusting a hepa filter any time soon .....
    Are there any diseases that get from infection to symptoms that fast???
    Pass. They may not have been connected but it seemed pretty likely to me.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The stable genius doesn’t quite get how infectious disease works....

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1258853971164368896

    That's a much watch clip.
    Trump's schtick has utterly fallen apart under the spotlight of Covid-19.

    Doesn't know what is required of him? Doesn't care? It holds a certain morbid fascination: just how much worse can his response get? And at what point does self-awareness kick in?
    He'll still get 42-43%
    Put up a donkey with a red rosette and some people will still vote for it.

    No, Malc has not hacked my account, it’s a simple factual observation.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The stable genius doesn’t quite get how infectious disease works....

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1258853971164368896

    That's a much watch clip.
    Trump's schtick has utterly fallen apart under the spotlight of Covid-19.

    Doesn't know what is required of him? Doesn't care? It holds a certain morbid fascination: just how much worse can his response get? And at what point does self-awareness kick in?
    He'll still get 42-43%
    Which is still a very heavy loss. To an opponent who is denuded of mental faculties and should ordinarily lose by an even heavier defeat than that.

    America and ordinarily are, however, no longer on speaking terms.

  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    edited May 2020

    Ave_it said:

    Ave_it said:

    Seriously if Boris doesn't come out with a sensible programme on Sunday I am going Starmer 😈

    Goint to the dark side Ave It ???🤣🤣🤣
    Yes I fancy a new party.

    Or maybe LD under Layla 😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊
    Worse Eric Clapton cover ever.
    I wouldn’t go so far as calling Layla a cover. I know that Clapton’s insane matricidal drummer Jim Gordon nicked the piano part off his ex Rita Coolidge (whose sister Priscilla later recorded it with her then husband Booker T Jones https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9IJPLcwHOes ) but I think it’s still Clapton’s song!
    (ps I know you weren’t actually calling Layla a cover, I just wanted to show off my weirdly detailed knowledge of it :) )
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The stable genius doesn’t quite get how infectious disease works....

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1258853971164368896

    That's a much watch clip.
    Trump's schtick has utterly fallen apart under the spotlight of Covid-19.

    Doesn't know what is required of him? Doesn't care? It holds a certain morbid fascination: just how much worse can his response get? And at what point does self-awareness kick in?
    Mike is on an airplane to some faraway place.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    The 50s film 'The Man that Never Was' is on iPlayer from yesterday, essentially a true story.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    This is I think key:

    "A worry for the Tories is the growing negative numbers that we are seeing on aspects of the government’s handling of the crisis and the impression of a lack of preparedness and ministers appearing to wing it day by day."

    Mike has long championed 'approval ratings' as the best indicator of voter intention and I think this is correct. The steady erosion of the Government's credibility is not good for the Conservatives. I think we all (myself included) had hoped the return of Boris would see us leap ahead but instead we have continued to experience misinformation, leaks, confusing signals, bluster and a general sense that they don't know what they are doing.

    Plus, and I think this is going to be significant, people are starting to see other parts of the world easing lockdown. The fact we have the 2nd worst death rate in the world, a care home crisis and an ongoing lockdown is not a good look.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    IanB2 said:
    Big call to call off "The Arnold" on March 4. Well done Mike DeWine
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,708
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The stable genius doesn’t quite get how infectious disease works....

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1258853971164368896

    That's a much watch clip.
    Trump's schtick has utterly fallen apart under the spotlight of Covid-19.

    Doesn't know what is required of him? Doesn't care? It holds a certain morbid fascination: just how much worse can his response get? And at what point does self-awareness kick in?
    Mike is on an airplane to some faraway place.
    Perhaps Trump was inadvertently revealing his own getaway plan.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,489

    This is I think key:

    "A worry for the Tories is the growing negative numbers that we are seeing on aspects of the government’s handling of the crisis and the impression of a lack of preparedness and ministers appearing to wing it day by day."

    Mike has long championed 'approval ratings' as the best indicator of voter intention and I think this is correct. The steady erosion of the Government's credibility is not good for the Conservatives. I think we all (myself included) had hoped the return of Boris would see us leap ahead but instead we have continued to experience misinformation, leaks, confusing signals, bluster and a general sense that they don't know what they are doing.

    Plus, and I think this is going to be significant, people are starting to see other parts of the world easing lockdown. The fact we have the 2nd worst death rate in the world, a care home crisis and an ongoing lockdown is not a good look.

    The Government lacks peripheral vision and broad thinking.

    It's great on focussing on one target (e.g. nightingale hospitals, 100k tests a day etc) but it's crap at foreseeing unintended consequences of secondary policies (such as discharges to carehomes) and seems to have been napping on the job when it comes to air travel. Just not on the radar.

    I wonder what Cummings thinks. Regardless of what you think of him this is the sort of stuff he gets.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    All borders and entry ports of New Zealand were closed to all non-residents at 11:59 pm on 19 March 2020, with returning citizens and residents being required to self-isolate. Since 10 April, all New Zealanders returning from overseas must go into two weeks of supervised quarantine.
    Wiki

    Guernsey implemented similar restrictions (not excluding non residents and sticking with self-quarantine) the same day and has had no new cases for 8 days.

    And the U.K. is finally proposing to do this 10 weeks later...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,489

    Ave_it said:

    Ave_it said:

    Seriously if Boris doesn't come out with a sensible programme on Sunday I am going Starmer 😈

    Goint to the dark side Ave It ???🤣🤣🤣
    Yes I fancy a new party.

    Or maybe LD under Layla 😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊
    Worse Eric Clapton cover ever.
    I wouldn’t go so far as calling Layla a cover. I know that Clapton’s insane matricidal drummer Jim Gordon nicked the piano part off his ex Rita Coolidge (whose sister Priscilla later recorded it with her then husband Booker T Jones https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9IJPLcwHOes ) but I think it’s still Clapton’s song!
    (ps I know you weren’t actually calling Layla a cover, I just wanted to show off my weirdly detailed knowledge of it :) )
    I get it 😉
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,489

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The stable genius doesn’t quite get how infectious disease works....

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1258853971164368896

    That's a much watch clip.
    Trump's schtick has utterly fallen apart under the spotlight of Covid-19.

    Doesn't know what is required of him? Doesn't care? It holds a certain morbid fascination: just how much worse can his response get? And at what point does self-awareness kick in?
    He'll still get 42-43%
    Which is still a very heavy loss. To an opponent who is denuded of mental faculties and should ordinarily lose by an even heavier defeat than that.

    America and ordinarily are, however, no longer on speaking terms.

    People support Trump because they hate his (their) political opponents even more and he really (deliciously) pisses them off.

    That has a value.

    I agree though. Only way I could see the Dems losing again is if they pick Hillary.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    This thread has

    been placed in quarantine.

  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The stable genius doesn’t quite get how infectious disease works....

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1258853971164368896

    That's a much watch clip.
    Trump's schtick has utterly fallen apart under the spotlight of Covid-19.

    Doesn't know what is required of him? Doesn't care? It holds a certain morbid fascination: just how much worse can his response get? And at what point does self-awareness kick in?
    He'll still get 42-43%
    Put up a donkey with a red rosette and some people will still vote for it.

    No, Malc has not hacked my account, it’s a simple factual observation.
    Doesn't have to be red...could be blue..
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The stable genius doesn’t quite get how infectious disease works....

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1258853971164368896

    That's a much watch clip.
    Trump's schtick has utterly fallen apart under the spotlight of Covid-19.

    Doesn't know what is required of him? Doesn't care? It holds a certain morbid fascination: just how much worse can his response get? And at what point does self-awareness kick in?
    He'll still get 42-43%
    Put up a donkey with a red rosette and some people will still vote for it.

    No, Malc has not hacked my account, it’s a simple factual observation.
    They used to say that about UK politics too, and then suddenly one December day no-one did.

    Although Biden is no Boris.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,851
    Remember that (at a guess) Biden is more senile than Trump.
This discussion has been closed.