That would suggest 40 to 45% of under 70s in Stockholm have had CV-19. If true, that's extraordinary.
And to have achieved that with (relatively) low - and now declining - deaths.
If it's true, then Sweden's R is going to be well below 3 going forward, even if you removed all lockdown.
(It's really important to realise that R declines with the number of infectable people. R0 is its infection rate assuming everyone you meet can be infected. Over time, if you get to 50% with immunity, then only half the people you can meet can be infected. It cannot spread as quickly as it did. R, then, will be on a glidepath from, say, 4 when the disease is brand new, to under 1 when 60% of people have had the disease.)
I'm going to need some convincing there is anything approaching herd immunity anywhere outside of a Covid ward in a Bronx hospital.
In a study of some 1,000 new patients admitted to New York hospitals over the last week, 66 percent were staying at home and 18 percent had come from nursing homes, meaning they either became infected by going out to get groceries or other essential items, or from seeing people outside of work.
Gov. Cuomo said they were clearly becoming infected as a result of personal behavior, something that can't be controlled by his lock-down.
If you want your Big Mac fix and don't mind queuing half the night for the privilege so be it but will parents be more interested in the health of their children (and themselves) than in doing their patriotic duty? It may well be given how subservient we were going into lockdown, Johnson and Cummings think we will be equally subservient coming out of it - we'll see.
What was the Parent Teachers Association group for the UK (now called Parentkind) had a survey out to all PTA’s and it had been promoted by the DfE. Results published fully tomorrow but, as per the BBC news, out of a quarter of a million responses 90% of parents would not be happy sending their children to school after lockdown ends. I’ve kept saying this and maybe it might get through now, government can’t afford to announce something that will be so comprehensively ignored. The lack of trust that stems from the late lockdown and the attempt at vaccine free herd immunity is palpable.
So what do those parents want to do instead ?
If your children are at home you can't go to work, hence your furlough / wfh may continue.
It could also be that some parents are fond of their children and do not want them to die from exotic bat viruses; unlikely after being locked down wiv da kids for three weeks but not impossible.
I mean I've no idea but weren't schools the very last thing to be closed down? They were happily playing in the playground while @eadric was crapping himself under the kitchen table. How many CV19 deaths of children have there been?
From the fateful herd immunity speech onwards attendance numbers in schools cratered, by the end half, less than half or so. Before that very nervy and concerned, pretty much everything cancelled outside of class time, a bare bones operation.
My son is doing really well homeschooling but is missing his friends. He’s keen to get back, as are lots of children. And, as Topping says, children are an extremely low risk group.
So let him and his mates go round each other's houses then. Simple solution.
That’s not allowed.
So complain that it should be allowed. Anyway, if the other parents are happy with it, who would know?
At what point do we stop celebrating VE Day? We are not Germany’s enemies after all. We were talking about this over dinner and my missus said why not celebrate it as ‘the end of the war’ without mentioning ‘victory’ and maybe Germany could join in, making it a celebration of peace.
We still commemorate the end of WW1 of course.
We were never Germany's enemy, as our behaviour after WW2 clearly showed. We were Nazism's enemy. And we still are. I think it's good to remember what our ancestors fought for in that terrible struggle and why.
The Germans can join in if they want. After all, some Germans suffered under Nazism too - not just the 5 million dead in the war. Of course it will be more complicated for them.
Yes I just meant stop celebrating ‘victory’ and celebrate ‘the end of the war’ really, not to forget it happened or why people fought
At what point do we stop celebrating VE Day? We are not Germany’s enemies after all. We were talking about this over dinner and my missus said why not celebrate it as ‘the end of the war’ without mentioning ‘victory’ and maybe Germany could join in, making it a celebration of peace.
I think there is some sort of commemoration in Germany for May 8th. Maybe more in former East Germany.
Ok cheers. I don’t know anything much about it really, so maybe showing that ignorance
That would suggest 40 to 45% of under 70s in Stockholm have had CV-19. If true, that's extraordinary.
And to have achieved that with (relatively) low - and now declining - deaths.
If it's true, then Sweden's R is going to be well below 3 going forward, even if you removed all lockdown.
(It's really important to realise that R declines with the number of infectable people. R0 is its infection rate assuming everyone you meet can be infected. Over time, if you get to 50% with immunity, then only half the people you can meet can be infected. It cannot spread as quickly as it did. R, then, will be on a glidepath from, say, 4 when the disease is brand new, to under 1 when 60% of people have had the disease.)
I'm going to need some convincing there is anything approaching herd immunity anywhere outside of a Covid ward in a Bronx hospital.
Herd immunity doesn't require 100% to be already infected though to be relevant.
There is probably some herd immunity effect already in London which is why the lockdown is succeeding so well in London (which was struck first) while other regions are being slower to see hospitalisation rates fall.
The weather forecast for saturday pm and sunday is very cold with snow in the north
I wouldn't worry too much about the weather on Friday...we are seriously fucked with a capital F follow by a guttural ucked..the incompetence of the Govt trashed us, and there are no good options now....
I am not necessarily blaming the Tories....it could have happened under a Labour Govt..but the Tories were holding the baby when this terrible calamity approached....and they really fucked it up....
The weather forecast for saturday pm and sunday is very cold with snow in the north
I wouldn't worry too much about the weather on Friday...we are seriously fucked with a capital F follow by a guttural ucked..the incompetence of the Govt trashed us, and there are no good options now....
I am not necessarily blaming the Tories....it could have happened under a Labour Govt..but the Tories were holding the baby when this terrible calamity approached....and they really fucked it up....
Fucked it up good and proper.
Yàaaaawn
What the hell is that kind of reply? Seriously comrade.
There are no good options now. People are fed up of lockdown....but the virus is still out there. The economy is shattered, and there is no safe pathway out. Our economy post de-industrialisation has been about people spending money on services...tell me how that will happen.....
The only hope is a vaccine...and what do we do until then?
The Govt did too little...too late...and now we are stuck where we are....
So yawn ahead.....
Well at least we should get some economic rebalancing and a bit less consumerism.
You mean we'll all be poorer and have less to spend. It's a view, but probably not a vote winner.
I have never understood what people's problem with consumerism is. What is the problem with people spending money on things that make them happy?
We're about to find out just how miserable we all are when nobody goes out or spends any money...
Our consumerism has been funded by debt and involves exploitation of people and the environment.
And does it really bring more pleasure than cheaper and simpler activities ?
In general, yes. People who say otherwise are either lying to themselves, haven't actually experienced how much happier a bit of money can make you, or are so rich they are able to blather on about how we could all be a bit poorer and still be just as happy. And that is a hypothesis we are all about to test... unwillingly, I might add.
That would suggest 40 to 45% of under 70s in Stockholm have had CV-19. If true, that's extraordinary.
And to have achieved that with (relatively) low - and now declining - deaths.
If it's true, then Sweden's R is going to be well below 3 going forward, even if you removed all lockdown.
(It's really important to realise that R declines with the number of infectable people. R0 is its infection rate assuming everyone you meet can be infected. Over time, if you get to 50% with immunity, then only half the people you can meet can be infected. It cannot spread as quickly as it did. R, then, will be on a glidepath from, say, 4 when the disease is brand new, to under 1 when 60% of people have had the disease.)
I'm going to need some convincing there is anything approaching herd immunity anywhere outside of a Covid ward in a Bronx hospital.
We don’t even know if catching coronavirus confers ‘immunity’ let alone ‘herd immunity.
So, yeah. It’s bollox
We're reasonably certain it does. For how long is unclear.
That would suggest 40 to 45% of under 70s in Stockholm have had CV-19. If true, that's extraordinary.
And to have achieved that with (relatively) low - and now declining - deaths.
If it's true, then Sweden's R is going to be well below 3 going forward, even if you removed all lockdown.
(It's really important to realise that R declines with the number of infectable people. R0 is its infection rate assuming everyone you meet can be infected. Over time, if you get to 50% with immunity, then only half the people you can meet can be infected. It cannot spread as quickly as it did. R, then, will be on a glidepath from, say, 4 when the disease is brand new, to under 1 when 60% of people have had the disease.)
If it’s as infectious as we were told, and they’ve been mixing In crowds of 50 for the last 6 months is it really that extraordinary? The intention of the Swedish govt was for younger people to get it
At what point do we stop celebrating VE Day? We are not Germany’s enemies after all. We were talking about this over dinner and my missus said why not celebrate it as ‘the end of the war’ without mentioning ‘victory’ and maybe Germany could join in, making it a celebration of peace.
I think there is some sort of commemoration in Germany for May 8th. Maybe more in former East Germany.
Ok cheers. I don’t know anything much about it really, so maybe showing that ignorance
I don't either, but it's possible that what Germany does for May 8th is something like what your partner was talking about. So maybe we could join them.
If you want your Big Mac fix and don't mind queuing half the night for the privilege so be it but will parents be more interested in the health of their children (and themselves) than in doing their patriotic duty? It may well be given how subservient we were going into lockdown, Johnson and Cummings think we will be equally subservient coming out of it - we'll see.
What was the Parent Teachers Association group for the UK (now called Parentkind) had a survey out to all PTA’s and it had been promoted by the DfE. Results published fully tomorrow but, as per the BBC news, out of a quarter of a million responses 90% of parents would not be happy sending their children to school after lockdown ends. I’ve kept saying this and maybe it might get through now, government can’t afford to announce something that will be so comprehensively ignored. The lack of trust that stems from the late lockdown and the attempt at vaccine free herd immunity is palpable.
So what do those parents want to do instead ?
If your children are at home you can't go to work, hence your furlough / wfh may continue.
It could also be that some parents are fond of their children and do not want them to die from exotic bat viruses; unlikely after being locked down wiv da kids for three weeks but not impossible.
I mean I've no idea but weren't schools the very last thing to be closed down? They were happily playing in the playground while @eadric was crapping himself under the kitchen table. How many CV19 deaths of children have there been?
From the fateful herd immunity speech onwards attendance numbers in schools cratered, by the end half, less than half or so. Before that very nervy and concerned, pretty much everything cancelled outside of class time, a bare bones operation.
My son is doing really well homeschooling but is missing his friends. He’s keen to get back, as are lots of children. And, as Topping says, children are an extremely low risk group.
So let him and his mates go round each other's houses then. Simple solution.
That’s not allowed.
So complain that it should be allowed. Anyway, if the other parents are happy with it, who would know?
Surely the whole point of having lockdown rules is that we follow them?
The weather forecast for saturday pm and sunday is very cold with snow in the north
I wouldn't worry too much about the weather on Friday...we are seriously fucked with a capital F follow by a guttural ucked..the incompetence of the Govt trashed us, and there are no good options now....
I am not necessarily blaming the Tories....it could have happened under a Labour Govt..but the Tories were holding the baby when this terrible calamity approached....and they really fucked it up....
The weather forecast for saturday pm and sunday is very cold with snow in the north
I wouldn't worry too much about the weather on Friday...we are seriously fucked with a capital F follow by a guttural ucked..the incompetence of the Govt trashed us, and there are no good options now....
I am not necessarily blaming the Tories....it could have happened under a Labour Govt..but the Tories were holding the baby when this terrible calamity approached....and they really fucked it up....
Fucked it up good and proper.
Yàaaaawn
What the hell is that kind of reply? Seriously comrade.
There are no good options now. People are fed up of lockdown....but the virus is still out there. The economy is shattered, and there is no safe pathway out. Our economy post de-industrialisation has been about people spending money on services...tell me how that will happen.....
The only hope is a vaccine...and what do we do until then?
The Govt did too little...too late...and now we are stuck where we are....
So yawn ahead.....
Well at least we should get some economic rebalancing and a bit less consumerism.
You mean we'll all be poorer and have less to spend. It's a view, but probably not a vote winner.
I have never understood what people's problem with consumerism is. What is the problem with people spending money on things that make them happy?
We're about to find out just how miserable we all are when nobody goes out or spends any money...
Our consumerism has been funded by debt and involves exploitation of people and the environment.
And does it really bring more pleasure than cheaper and simpler activities ?
You are regularly on here banging on about building more roads and public transport being a niche London thing.
Don’t hide behind the environment now to justify your austere paleoconservatism.
Consumerism can be environmentally friendly.
As a matter of fact I am sceptical of the need to build more roads but less sceptical than I am about the value of other government infrastructure projects. The bigger the project the greater the doubt I get.
As to public transport, though I'm not sure why you've brought that up, it clearly is more important in London than it is in other places - I use it myself when I'm there.
I've spent over a decade on PB saying we need to live within our means and that our economy and lifestyle was fundamentally unbalanced and could not continue in the same way forever.
That era seems likely now to come to an end - believe it or not I do have sympathy for those who will lose out and hope that they can take pleasure in the cheaper and simpler options that still remain to us.
That would suggest 40 to 45% of under 70s in Stockholm have had CV-19. If true, that's extraordinary.
And to have achieved that with (relatively) low - and now declining - deaths.
If it's true, then Sweden's R is going to be well below 3 going forward, even if you removed all lockdown.
(It's really important to realise that R declines with the number of infectable people. R0 is its infection rate assuming everyone you meet can be infected. Over time, if you get to 50% with immunity, then only half the people you can meet can be infected. It cannot spread as quickly as it did. R, then, will be on a glidepath from, say, 4 when the disease is brand new, to under 1 when 60% of people have had the disease.)
I'm going to need some convincing there is anything approaching herd immunity anywhere outside of a Covid ward in a Bronx hospital.
Herd immunity doesn't require 100% to be already infected though to be relevant.
There is probably some herd immunity effect already in London which is why the lockdown is succeeding so well in London (which was struck first) while other regions are being slower to see hospitalisation rates fall.
These pages were full of wealthy middle class bumpkins outing geezers from London council houses for sunbathing in parks. Yet it doesn’t appear to have harmed London’s numbers.
At what point do we stop celebrating VE Day? We are not Germany’s enemies after all. We were talking about this over dinner and my missus said why not celebrate it as ‘the end of the war’ without mentioning ‘victory’ and maybe Germany could join in, making it a celebration of peace.
We still commemorate the end of WW1 of course.
We were never Germany's enemy, as our behaviour after WW2 clearly showed. We were Nazism's enemy. And we still are. I think it's good to remember what our ancestors fought for in that terrible struggle and why.
The Germans can join in if they want. After all, some Germans suffered under Nazism too - not just the 5 million dead in the war. Of course it will be more complicated for them.
Yes I just meant stop celebrating ‘victory’ and celebrate ‘the end of the war’ really, not to forget it happened or why people fought
Hopefully never.
We should remember our history - the good, the bad and the ugly. Lest we forget.
We should cease to celebrate victory on VE Day about the same time as the Americans cease to celebrate July 4th, or the French cease to celebrate Bastille Day.
The weather forecast for saturday pm and sunday is very cold with snow in the north
I wouldn't worry too much about the weather on Friday...we are seriously fucked with a capital F follow by a guttural ucked..the incompetence of the Govt trashed us, and there are no good options now....
I am not necessarily blaming the Tories....it could have happened under a Labour Govt..but the Tories were holding the baby when this terrible calamity approached....and they really fucked it up....
Fucked it up good and proper.
Hard to avoid that conclusion.
February 2020 will be forever known as the UK's wasted month.
The fact that Boris disappeared for the last two weeks of Feb holed up in a country house with his girlfriend trying to sort out his private life is probably the key factor that explains why the government wasn't anywhere near as on the ball as it should have been. We lost the chance to get ahead of the curve and benefit from the experience of others. We have been playing catch up ever since.
That would suggest 40 to 45% of under 70s in Stockholm have had CV-19. If true, that's extraordinary.
And to have achieved that with (relatively) low - and now declining - deaths.
If it's true, then Sweden's R is going to be well below 3 going forward, even if you removed all lockdown.
(It's really important to realise that R declines with the number of infectable people. R0 is its infection rate assuming everyone you meet can be infected. Over time, if you get to 50% with immunity, then only half the people you can meet can be infected. It cannot spread as quickly as it did. R, then, will be on a glidepath from, say, 4 when the disease is brand new, to under 1 when 60% of people have had the disease.)
I'm going to need some convincing there is anything approaching herd immunity anywhere outside of a Covid ward in a Bronx hospital.
We don’t even know if catching coronavirus confers ‘immunity’ let alone ‘herd immunity.
So, yeah. It’s bollox
We're reasonably certain it does. For how long is unclear.
Which is chocolate teapot territory
No. The effect is real whether we know it or not.
Its like saying what was the world's tallest mountain before Mount Everest was discovered?
At what point do we stop celebrating VE Day? We are not Germany’s enemies after all. We were talking about this over dinner and my missus said why not celebrate it as ‘the end of the war’ without mentioning ‘victory’ and maybe Germany could join in, making it a celebration of peace.
We still commemorate the end of WW1 of course.
We were never Germany's enemy, as our behaviour after WW2 clearly showed. We were Nazism's enemy. And we still are. I think it's good to remember what our ancestors fought for in that terrible struggle and why.
The Germans can join in if they want. After all, some Germans suffered under Nazism too - not just the 5 million dead in the war. Of course it will be more complicated for them.
Yes I just meant stop celebrating ‘victory’ and celebrate ‘the end of the war’ really, not to forget it happened or why people fought
Hopefully never.
We should remember our history - the good, the bad and the ugly. Lest we forget.
We should cease to celebrate victory on VE Day about the same time as the Americans cease to celebrate July 4th, or the French cease to celebrate Bastille Day.
You’re replying to a post where I say we should celebrate the end of the war, not to forget it or why people fought
We are friends with Germany, I don’t think it’s friendly to celebrate ‘victory’ where million of Germans died. We should celebrate the war ending
That would suggest 40 to 45% of under 70s in Stockholm have had CV-19. If true, that's extraordinary.
And to have achieved that with (relatively) low - and now declining - deaths.
If it's true, then Sweden's R is going to be well below 3 going forward, even if you removed all lockdown.
(It's really important to realise that R declines with the number of infectable people. R0 is its infection rate assuming everyone you meet can be infected. Over time, if you get to 50% with immunity, then only half the people you can meet can be infected. It cannot spread as quickly as it did. R, then, will be on a glidepath from, say, 4 when the disease is brand new, to under 1 when 60% of people have had the disease.)
Would it be possible to get an idea of infection rates among the working population by have sick absence data ?
I assume that even in Stockholm that a person with symptoms is told not to go to work.
That would suggest 40 to 45% of under 70s in Stockholm have had CV-19. If true, that's extraordinary.
And to have achieved that with (relatively) low - and now declining - deaths.
If it's true, then Sweden's R is going to be well below 3 going forward, even if you removed all lockdown.
(It's really important to realise that R declines with the number of infectable people. R0 is its infection rate assuming everyone you meet can be infected. Over time, if you get to 50% with immunity, then only half the people you can meet can be infected. It cannot spread as quickly as it did. R, then, will be on a glidepath from, say, 4 when the disease is brand new, to under 1 when 60% of people have had the disease.)
If it’s as infectious as we were told, and they’ve been mixing In crowds of 50 for the last 6 months is it really that extraordinary? The intention of the Swedish govt was for younger people to get it
If they really wanted all under 70s to get it, they'd keep the football matches open.
Sweden has implemented a policy that looks not a million miles from the UK pre full lockdown - i.e. restrictions that keep R at a reasonable level, say 1 to 1.5, and to try and keep oldies hidden away.
They are lucky that - even in Stockholm - they have relatively low population density (no megablocks of apartments where everyone uses the same lift). So, they are less likely to get crazy run away growth.
I hope they really are as far through this as they think. Because if they are, then we'll back to (almost) normal in three or four months.
The weather forecast for saturday pm and sunday is very cold with snow in the north
I wouldn't worry too much about the weather on Friday...we are seriously fucked with a capital F follow by a guttural ucked..the incompetence of the Govt trashed us, and there are no good options now....
I am not necessarily blaming the Tories....it could have happened under a Labour Govt..but the Tories were holding the baby when this terrible calamity approached....and they really fucked it up....
The way you go on you would think the UK suffered orders of magnitude worse than any other country. That's simply not true.
We had the big advantage of being an island and squandered it.
Yes, the best option would have been to close the border to countries where the virus was known to be spreading, and/or people who had been to those countries.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Right up until the second week of March suggesting shutting the borders would have been shouted down as xenophobic by people on here and in politics. Now the closure of borders is all the rage and "why didn't they do it sooner??"
The function of a government is to do what is best for the country not fret about what twitter might be saying. They were asleep at the wheel and that buck stops firmly with Boris.
That would suggest 40 to 45% of under 70s in Stockholm have had CV-19. If true, that's extraordinary.
And to have achieved that with (relatively) low - and now declining - deaths.
If it's true, then Sweden's R is going to be well below 3 going forward, even if you removed all lockdown.
(It's really important to realise that R declines with the number of infectable people. R0 is its infection rate assuming everyone you meet can be infected. Over time, if you get to 50% with immunity, then only half the people you can meet can be infected. It cannot spread as quickly as it did. R, then, will be on a glidepath from, say, 4 when the disease is brand new, to under 1 when 60% of people have had the disease.)
If it’s as infectious as we were told, and they’ve been mixing In crowds of 50 for the last 6 months is it really that extraordinary? The intention of the Swedish govt was for younger people to get it
That would suggest 40 to 45% of under 70s in Stockholm have had CV-19. If true, that's extraordinary.
And to have achieved that with (relatively) low - and now declining - deaths.
If it's true, then Sweden's R is going to be well below 3 going forward, even if you removed all lockdown.
(It's really important to realise that R declines with the number of infectable people. R0 is its infection rate assuming everyone you meet can be infected. Over time, if you get to 50% with immunity, then only half the people you can meet can be infected. It cannot spread as quickly as it did. R, then, will be on a glidepath from, say, 4 when the disease is brand new, to under 1 when 60% of people have had the disease.)
I'm going to need some convincing there is anything approaching herd immunity anywhere outside of a Covid ward in a Bronx hospital.
We don’t even know if catching coronavirus confers ‘immunity’ let alone ‘herd immunity.
So, yeah. It’s bollox
SARS and MERS both conferred immunity*, and the stories about reinfection in South Korea have now been eliminated.
Really the question is not about if there is immunity, but how much immunity is conferred (no future cases, mild future cases or full on future cases?) and for how long (one year, three years, five years, fifty years).
This is a slow mutating virus, so the best guess is some to full and three to five years.
The entire British economy has been shut down, plus god knows how many deferred operations, cancer scans, GP checks etc etc. for a model that the university will not release.
"A request for the original code has been made 8 days ago but ignored, it will probably take some kind of legal compulsion to make them release it. Clearly Imperial are too embarrassed by the state of it to ever release it of their own free will, which is unacceptable given it was paid for by the taxpayer and belongs to them."
The entire British economy has been shut down, plus god knows how many deferred operations, cancer scans, GP checks etc etc. for a model that the university will not release.
"A request for the original code has been made 8 days ago but ignored, it will probably take some kind of legal compulsion to make them release it. Clearly Imperial are too embarrassed by the state of it to ever release it of their own free will, which is unacceptable given it was paid for by the taxpayer and belongs to them."
The weather forecast for saturday pm and sunday is very cold with snow in the north
I wouldn't worry too much about the weather on Friday...we are seriously fucked with a capital F follow by a guttural ucked..the incompetence of the Govt trashed us, and there are no good options now....
I am not necessarily blaming the Tories....it could have happened under a Labour Govt..but the Tories were holding the baby when this terrible calamity approached....and they really fucked it up....
The weather forecast for saturday pm and sunday is very cold with snow in the north
I wouldn't worry too much about the weather on Friday...we are seriously fucked with a capital F follow by a guttural ucked..the incompetence of the Govt trashed us, and there are no good options now....
I am not necessarily blaming the Tories....it could have happened under a Labour Govt..but the Tories were holding the baby when this terrible calamity approached....and they really fucked it up....
Fucked it up good and proper.
Yàaaaawn
What the hell is that kind of reply? Seriously comrade.
There are no good options now. People are fed up of lockdown....but the virus is still out there. The economy is shattered, and there is no safe pathway out. Our economy post de-industrialisation has been about people spending money on services...tell me how that will happen.....
The only hope is a vaccine...and what do we do until then?
The Govt did too little...too late...and now we are stuck where we are....
So yawn ahead.....
Well at least we should get some economic rebalancing and a bit less consumerism.
You mean we'll all be poorer and have less to spend. It's a view, but probably not a vote winner.
I have never understood what people's problem with consumerism is. What is the problem with people spending money on things that make them happy?
We're about to find out just how miserable we all are when nobody goes out or spends any money...
Our consumerism has been funded by debt and involves exploitation of people and the environment.
And does it really bring more pleasure than cheaper and simpler activities ?
In general, yes. People who say otherwise are either lying to themselves, haven't actually experienced how much happier a bit of money can make you, or are so rich they are able to blather on about how we could all be a bit poorer and still be just as happy. And that is a hypothesis we are all about to test... unwillingly, I might add.
Well, speaking only for myself, I've found my evening walks to be a new and simple pleasure and infinitely cheaper than my gym membership.
At what point do we stop celebrating VE Day? We are not Germany’s enemies after all. We were talking about this over dinner and my missus said why not celebrate it as ‘the end of the war’ without mentioning ‘victory’ and maybe Germany could join in, making it a celebration of peace.
We still commemorate the end of WW1 of course.
We were never Germany's enemy, as our behaviour after WW2 clearly showed. We were Nazism's enemy. And we still are. I think it's good to remember what our ancestors fought for in that terrible struggle and why.
The Germans can join in if they want. After all, some Germans suffered under Nazism too - not just the 5 million dead in the war. Of course it will be more complicated for them.
Yes I just meant stop celebrating ‘victory’ and celebrate ‘the end of the war’ really, not to forget it happened or why people fought
Hopefully never.
We should remember our history - the good, the bad and the ugly. Lest we forget.
We should cease to celebrate victory on VE Day about the same time as the Americans cease to celebrate July 4th, or the French cease to celebrate Bastille Day.
You’re replying to a post where I say we should celebrate the end of the war, not to forget it or why people fought
We are friends with Germany, I don’t think it’s friendly to celebrate ‘victory’ where million of Germans died. We should celebrate the war ending
I couldn't disagree more with that logic though.
Americans celebrate victory in their war of independence against us. Doesn't mean they hate us.
We defeated the Nazis. We absolutely should celebrate that as a key moment in our history. The Germans today are not the Nazis. As well as liberating France etc, Hitler's downfall liberated Germany too, that's something to celebrate all around.
That would suggest 40 to 45% of under 70s in Stockholm have had CV-19. If true, that's extraordinary.
And to have achieved that with (relatively) low - and now declining - deaths.
If it's true, then Sweden's R is going to be well below 3 going forward, even if you removed all lockdown.
(It's really important to realise that R declines with the number of infectable people. R0 is its infection rate assuming everyone you meet can be infected. Over time, if you get to 50% with immunity, then only half the people you can meet can be infected. It cannot spread as quickly as it did. R, then, will be on a glidepath from, say, 4 when the disease is brand new, to under 1 when 60% of people have had the disease.)
I'm going to need some convincing there is anything approaching herd immunity anywhere outside of a Covid ward in a Bronx hospital.
We don’t even know if catching coronavirus confers ‘immunity’ let alone ‘herd immunity.
So, yeah. It’s bollox
SARS and MERS both conferred immunity*, and the stories about reinfection in South Korea have now been eliminated.
Really the question is not about if there is immunity, but how much immunity is conferred (no future cases, mild future cases or full on future cases?) and for how long (one year, three years, five years, fifty years).
This is a slow mutating virus, so the best guess is some to full and three to five years.
Hmm
‘Patients who recover from coronavirus are likely to have some immunity from the disease for up to three years, the government's chief scientific adviser has suggested.
Sir Patrick Vallance said those who have already caught COVID-19 will probably have a "degree of protection" from it but warned it "almost certainly" won't give a person "absolute immunity".
He cautioned "we don't know" if getting rid of the virus would stop someone catching it again and passing it on.‘
The entire British economy has been shut down, plus god knows how many deferred operations, cancer scans, GP checks etc etc. for a model that the university will not release.
"A request for the original code has been made 8 days ago but ignored, it will probably take some kind of legal compulsion to make them release it. Clearly Imperial are too embarrassed by the state of it to ever release it of their own free will, which is unacceptable given it was paid for by the taxpayer and belongs to them."
That would suggest 40 to 45% of under 70s in Stockholm have had CV-19. If true, that's extraordinary.
And to have achieved that with (relatively) low - and now declining - deaths.
If it's true, then Sweden's R is going to be well below 3 going forward, even if you removed all lockdown.
(It's really important to realise that R declines with the number of infectable people. R0 is its infection rate assuming everyone you meet can be infected. Over time, if you get to 50% with immunity, then only half the people you can meet can be infected. It cannot spread as quickly as it did. R, then, will be on a glidepath from, say, 4 when the disease is brand new, to under 1 when 60% of people have had the disease.)
I'm going to need some convincing there is anything approaching herd immunity anywhere outside of a Covid ward in a Bronx hospital.
We don’t even know if catching coronavirus confers ‘immunity’ let alone ‘herd immunity.
So, yeah. It’s bollox
SARS and MERS both conferred immunity*, and the stories about reinfection in South Korea have now been eliminated.
Really the question is not about if there is immunity, but how much immunity is conferred (no future cases, mild future cases or full on future cases?) and for how long (one year, three years, five years, fifty years).
This is a slow mutating virus, so the best guess is some to full and three to five years.
Hmm
‘Patients who recover from coronavirus are likely to have some immunity from the disease for up to three years, the government's chief scientific adviser has suggested.
Sir Patrick Vallance said those who have already caught COVID-19 will probably have a "degree of protection" from it but warned it "almost certainly" won't give a person "absolute immunity".
He cautioned "we don't know" if getting rid of the virus would stop someone catching it again and passing it on.‘
The entire British economy has been shut down, plus god knows how many deferred operations, cancer scans, GP checks etc etc. for a model that the university will not release.
"A request for the original code has been made 8 days ago but ignored, it will probably take some kind of legal compulsion to make them release it. Clearly Imperial are too embarrassed by the state of it to ever release it of their own free will, which is unacceptable given it was paid for by the taxpayer and belongs to them."
That would suggest 40 to 45% of under 70s in Stockholm have had CV-19. If true, that's extraordinary.
And to have achieved that with (relatively) low - and now declining - deaths.
If it's true, then Sweden's R is going to be well below 3 going forward, even if you removed all lockdown.
(It's really important to realise that R declines with the number of infectable people. R0 is its infection rate assuming everyone you meet can be infected. Over time, if you get to 50% with immunity, then only half the people you can meet can be infected. It cannot spread as quickly as it did. R, then, will be on a glidepath from, say, 4 when the disease is brand new, to under 1 when 60% of people have had the disease.)
I'm going to need some convincing there is anything approaching herd immunity anywhere outside of a Covid ward in a Bronx hospital.
We don’t even know if catching coronavirus confers ‘immunity’ let alone ‘herd immunity.
So, yeah. It’s bollox
SARS and MERS both conferred immunity*, and the stories about reinfection in South Korea have now been eliminated.
Really the question is not about if there is immunity, but how much immunity is conferred (no future cases, mild future cases or full on future cases?) and for how long (one year, three years, five years, fifty years).
This is a slow mutating virus, so the best guess is some to full and three to five years.
Hmm
‘Patients who recover from coronavirus are likely to have some immunity from the disease for up to three years, the government's chief scientific adviser has suggested.
Sir Patrick Vallance said those who have already caught COVID-19 will probably have a "degree of protection" from it but warned it "almost certainly" won't give a person "absolute immunity".
He cautioned "we don't know" if getting rid of the virus would stop someone catching it again and passing it on.‘
That would suggest 40 to 45% of under 70s in Stockholm have had CV-19. If true, that's extraordinary.
And to have achieved that with (relatively) low - and now declining - deaths.
If it's true, then Sweden's R is going to be well below 3 going forward, even if you removed all lockdown.
(It's really important to realise that R declines with the number of infectable people. R0 is its infection rate assuming everyone you meet can be infected. Over time, if you get to 50% with immunity, then only half the people you can meet can be infected. It cannot spread as quickly as it did. R, then, will be on a glidepath from, say, 4 when the disease is brand new, to under 1 when 60% of people have had the disease.)
I'm going to need some convincing there is anything approaching herd immunity anywhere outside of a Covid ward in a Bronx hospital.
We don’t even know if catching coronavirus confers ‘immunity’ let alone ‘herd immunity.
So, yeah. It’s bollox
SARS and MERS both conferred immunity*, and the stories about reinfection in South Korea have now been eliminated.
Really the question is not about if there is immunity, but how much immunity is conferred (no future cases, mild future cases or full on future cases?) and for how long (one year, three years, five years, fifty years).
This is a slow mutating virus, so the best guess is some to full and three to five years.
Hmm
‘Patients who recover from coronavirus are likely to have some immunity from the disease for up to three years, the government's chief scientific adviser has suggested.
Sir Patrick Vallance said those who have already caught COVID-19 will probably have a "degree of protection" from it but warned it "almost certainly" won't give a person "absolute immunity".
He cautioned "we don't know" if getting rid of the virus would stop someone catching it again and passing it on.‘
A degree of immunity. Not absolute. Up to 3 years. Maybe
It’s not entirely reassuring
Well you're not going to get a guarantee.
Maybe you'd get 90% immunity for 5 years.
Or maybe not.
But you're likely to get something for some time and during that time testing and treatment and knowledge of covid should improve.
Of course. I imagine catching this bug gives ‘some’ immunity. At least I bloody well hope so. Having possibly had it
But if i were wildly obese, badly immunodeficient, severely asthmatic, or 85 years old, I would not be relying on any putative *immunity*
You get immunity.
The question is how long for because it will be mutating in that time. If it mutates sufficiently then you can lose your immunity. Though even then future versions of the virus can hit you milder because you have partial immunity already.
Interestingly the Spanish Flu reportedly hit young adults disproportionately harder than you would normally expect (the elderly normally get hit hardest in any outbreak) - which is partially due to WWI and poverty at the time but partially due to the fact that there had been a bad flu outbreak in the 19th century that the 1918 elderly had survived so many may have already had antibodies that helped them when the Spanish Flu hit.
That would suggest 40 to 45% of under 70s in Stockholm have had CV-19. If true, that's extraordinary.
And to have achieved that with (relatively) low - and now declining - deaths.
If it's true, then Sweden's R is going to be well below 3 going forward, even if you removed all lockdown.
(It's really important to realise that R declines with the number of infectable people. R0 is its infection rate assuming everyone you meet can be infected. Over time, if you get to 50% with immunity, then only half the people you can meet can be infected. It cannot spread as quickly as it did. R, then, will be on a glidepath from, say, 4 when the disease is brand new, to under 1 when 60% of people have had the disease.)
I'm going to need some convincing there is anything approaching herd immunity anywhere outside of a Covid ward in a Bronx hospital.
We don’t even know if catching coronavirus confers ‘immunity’ let alone ‘herd immunity.
So, yeah. It’s bollox
SARS and MERS both conferred immunity*, and the stories about reinfection in South Korea have now been eliminated.
Really the question is not about if there is immunity, but how much immunity is conferred (no future cases, mild future cases or full on future cases?) and for how long (one year, three years, five years, fifty years).
This is a slow mutating virus, so the best guess is some to full and three to five years.
Hmm
‘Patients who recover from coronavirus are likely to have some immunity from the disease for up to three years, the government's chief scientific adviser has suggested.
Sir Patrick Vallance said those who have already caught COVID-19 will probably have a "degree of protection" from it but warned it "almost certainly" won't give a person "absolute immunity".
He cautioned "we don't know" if getting rid of the virus would stop someone catching it again and passing it on.‘
That would suggest 40 to 45% of under 70s in Stockholm have had CV-19. If true, that's extraordinary.
And to have achieved that with (relatively) low - and now declining - deaths.
If it's true, then Sweden's R is going to be well below 3 going forward, even if you removed all lockdown.
(It's really important to realise that R declines with the number of infectable people. R0 is its infection rate assuming everyone you meet can be infected. Over time, if you get to 50% with immunity, then only half the people you can meet can be infected. It cannot spread as quickly as it did. R, then, will be on a glidepath from, say, 4 when the disease is brand new, to under 1 when 60% of people have had the disease.)
I'm going to need some convincing there is anything approaching herd immunity anywhere outside of a Covid ward in a Bronx hospital.
We don’t even know if catching coronavirus confers ‘immunity’ let alone ‘herd immunity.
So, yeah. It’s bollox
SARS and MERS both conferred immunity*, and the stories about reinfection in South Korea have now been eliminated.
Really the question is not about if there is immunity, but how much immunity is conferred (no future cases, mild future cases or full on future cases?) and for how long (one year, three years, five years, fifty years).
This is a slow mutating virus, so the best guess is some to full and three to five years.
Hmm
‘Patients who recover from coronavirus are likely to have some immunity from the disease for up to three years, the government's chief scientific adviser has suggested.
Sir Patrick Vallance said those who have already caught COVID-19 will probably have a "degree of protection" from it but warned it "almost certainly" won't give a person "absolute immunity".
He cautioned "we don't know" if getting rid of the virus would stop someone catching it again and passing it on.‘
At what point do we stop celebrating VE Day? We are not Germany’s enemies after all. We were talking about this over dinner and my missus said why not celebrate it as ‘the end of the war’ without mentioning ‘victory’ and maybe Germany could join in, making it a celebration of peace.
We still commemorate the end of WW1 of course.
We were never Germany's enemy, as our behaviour after WW2 clearly showed. We were Nazism's enemy. And we still are. I think it's good to remember what our ancestors fought for in that terrible struggle and why.
The Germans can join in if they want. After all, some Germans suffered under Nazism too - not just the 5 million dead in the war. Of course it will be more complicated for them.
Yes I just meant stop celebrating ‘victory’ and celebrate ‘the end of the war’ really, not to forget it happened or why people fought
Hopefully never.
We should remember our history - the good, the bad and the ugly. Lest we forget.
We should cease to celebrate victory on VE Day about the same time as the Americans cease to celebrate July 4th, or the French cease to celebrate Bastille Day.
You’re replying to a post where I say we should celebrate the end of the war, not to forget it or why people fought
We are friends with Germany, I don’t think it’s friendly to celebrate ‘victory’ where million of Germans died. We should celebrate the war ending
I couldn't disagree more with that logic though.
Americans celebrate victory in their war of independence against us. Doesn't mean they hate us.
We defeated the Nazis. We absolutely should celebrate that as a key moment in our history. The Germans today are not the Nazis. As well as liberating France etc, Hitler's downfall liberated Germany too, that's something to celebrate all around.
Well it’s ok to disagree. I wouldn’t be comfortable celebrating ‘victory’ in front of a German who’d lost his father in the war, so I think we should cease calling it a victory. Yes we defeated the Nazis, but millions of Germans who died were not Nazis.
At what point do we stop celebrating VE Day? We are not Germany’s enemies after all. We were talking about this over dinner and my missus said why not celebrate it as ‘the end of the war’ without mentioning ‘victory’ and maybe Germany could join in, making it a celebration of peace.
We still commemorate the end of WW1 of course.
We were never Germany's enemy, as our behaviour after WW2 clearly showed. We were Nazism's enemy. And we still are. I think it's good to remember what our ancestors fought for in that terrible struggle and why.
The Germans can join in if they want. After all, some Germans suffered under Nazism too - not just the 5 million dead in the war. Of course it will be more complicated for them.
Yes I just meant stop celebrating ‘victory’ and celebrate ‘the end of the war’ really, not to forget it happened or why people fought
Hopefully never.
We should remember our history - the good, the bad and the ugly. Lest we forget.
We should cease to celebrate victory on VE Day about the same time as the Americans cease to celebrate July 4th, or the French cease to celebrate Bastille Day.
You’re replying to a post where I say we should celebrate the end of the war, not to forget it or why people fought
We are friends with Germany, I don’t think it’s friendly to celebrate ‘victory’ where million of Germans died. We should celebrate the war ending
I couldn't disagree more with that logic though.
Americans celebrate victory in their war of independence against us. Doesn't mean they hate us.
We defeated the Nazis. We absolutely should celebrate that as a key moment in our history. The Germans today are not the Nazis. As well as liberating France etc, Hitler's downfall liberated Germany too, that's something to celebrate all around.
Well it’s ok to disagree. I wouldn’t be comfortable celebrating ‘victory’ in front of a German who’d lost his father in the war, so I think we should cease calling it a victory. Yes we defeated the Nazis, but millions of Germans who died were not Nazis.
Isn't that less of an issue now than it was in the past?
We're more likely now to be speaking to a German who may have lost his grandfather in the war.
However even then I'd hope most Germans are glad they lost the war, even if there are personal tragedies. My best friend growing up lost his mother's mother in a concentration camp, I'm never going to have any sympathy to anyone who regrets or is upset with us having defeated the Nazis.
Hardly anyone visits Belarus. I bet even Eadric hasn't been there.
I have. I’ve even been to Chernobyl
I'd have expected Chernobyl to get more British tourists than Minsk.
I've been to Chornobyl. Minsk is harder to get to. Kyiv is a great city.
Kiev is in Ukraine not Belarus though.
As is Chernobyl
Indeed.
Wrong
Chernobyl is in Ukraine.
It is close to the border with Belarus, but it is in Ukraine.
You’re a fucking idiot. I’ve been to Chernobyl. The dead zone straddles the border. If you go to Belarus you can go to the BELARUS Chernobyl dead zone. And see the plant. I’ve done it. You haven’t.
FFS
From your link: The old nuclear power station is located in the north of Ukraine, near the current border of that country with Belarus.
The infected zone straddles the border, sure, of course it does. But that’s not what I wrote or what you wrote.
At what point do we stop celebrating VE Day? We are not Germany’s enemies after all. We were talking about this over dinner and my missus said why not celebrate it as ‘the end of the war’ without mentioning ‘victory’ and maybe Germany could join in, making it a celebration of peace.
We still commemorate the end of WW1 of course.
We were never Germany's enemy, as our behaviour after WW2 clearly showed. We were Nazism's enemy. And we still are. I think it's good to remember what our ancestors fought for in that terrible struggle and why.
The Germans can join in if they want. After all, some Germans suffered under Nazism too - not just the 5 million dead in the war. Of course it will be more complicated for them.
Yes I just meant stop celebrating ‘victory’ and celebrate ‘the end of the war’ really, not to forget it happened or why people fought
Hopefully never.
We should remember our history - the good, the bad and the ugly. Lest we forget.
We should cease to celebrate victory on VE Day about the same time as the Americans cease to celebrate July 4th, or the French cease to celebrate Bastille Day.
You’re replying to a post where I say we should celebrate the end of the war, not to forget it or why people fought
We are friends with Germany, I don’t think it’s friendly to celebrate ‘victory’ where million of Germans died. We should celebrate the war ending
I couldn't disagree more with that logic though.
Americans celebrate victory in their war of independence against us. Doesn't mean they hate us.
We defeated the Nazis. We absolutely should celebrate that as a key moment in our history. The Germans today are not the Nazis. As well as liberating France etc, Hitler's downfall liberated Germany too, that's something to celebrate all around.
Well it’s ok to disagree. I wouldn’t be comfortable celebrating ‘victory’ in front of a German who’d lost his father in the war, so I think we should cease calling it a victory. Yes we defeated the Nazis, but millions of Germans who died were not Nazis.
If you were American would you be equally uncomfortable celebrating Independence Day in front of a Brit whose ancestor was a redcoat killed in the War of Independence?
Hardly anyone visits Belarus. I bet even Eadric hasn't been there.
Maybe that’s why Eastern Europe is barely affected.
Well it doesn't explain why Prague isn't affected unless they don't get many visitors in Jan/Feb/March,
My guess is that a large part of how badly you are affected is the existence of super-spreader events.
You know, things like beer pong. Or elevators in apartment complexes that don't get cleaned and have hundreds of residents going through them.
If you have a few of these super spreader events, then you get hammered because early on in the process one person gives fifty people the disease and now you have fifty disease vectors.
That's what happened in Milan and New York. And it's something that's very unlikely in cities without lots of dense public transport or high rise apartment blocks. It's why Munich was barely touched, while New York was hammered.
Some of Eastern Europe has big apartment complexes. But most of them are fairly low rise, and rely on people using - you know - the stairs. Plus the (relatively) old people that live in them don't tend to play beer pong that often.
If you want your Big Mac fix and don't mind queuing half the night for the privilege so be it but will parents be more interested in the health of their children (and themselves) than in doing their patriotic duty? It may well be given how subservient we were going into lockdown, Johnson and Cummings think we will be equally subservient coming out of it - we'll see.
What was the Parent Teachers Association group for the UK (now called Parentkind) had a survey out to all PTA’s and it had been promoted by the DfE. Results published fully tomorrow but, as per the BBC news, out of a quarter of a million responses 90% of parents would not be happy sending their children to school after lockdown ends. I’ve kept saying this and maybe it might get through now, government can’t afford to announce something that will be so comprehensively ignored. The lack of trust that stems from the late lockdown and the attempt at vaccine free herd immunity is palpable.
So what do those parents want to do instead ?
If your children are at home you can't go to work, hence your furlough / wfh may continue.
It could also be that some parents are fond of their children and do not want them to die from exotic bat viruses; unlikely after being locked down wiv da kids for three weeks but not impossible.
I mean I've no idea but weren't schools the very last thing to be closed down? They were happily playing in the playground while @eadric was crapping himself under the kitchen table. How many CV19 deaths of children have there been?
From the fateful herd immunity speech onwards attendance numbers in schools cratered, by the end half, less than half or so. Before that very nervy and concerned, pretty much everything cancelled outside of class time, a bare bones operation.
My son is doing really well homeschooling but is missing his friends. He’s keen to get back, as are lots of children. And, as Topping says, children are an extremely low risk group.
So let him and his mates go round each other's houses then. Simple solution.
That’s not allowed.
So complain that it should be allowed. Anyway, if the other parents are happy with it, who would know?
Surely the whole point of having lockdown rules is that we follow them?
I think it's the right thing to do, whether it's a rule or not. The reason we are in this mess is because too many people needed someone else to tell them to stop being an idiot, it's a sad state of affairs when only a diktat from government changes their behaviour.
That very article says that Chernobyl is in Ukraine but that the radiation spread to Belarus.
That's like saying if there was a nuclear incident in Calais which irradiated parts of Kent that Calais is in England.
Chornobyl (the town), Chernobyl (the plant, they prefer the Russian spelling for some reason) and Pripyat (the ghost town that was the main service town for the plant) are all in Ukraine, but the radiation zone extends over the Belarus border. People now live in Chornobyl again but you have to be over 50 and lived there before the disaster. As do people who work at the plant, but they generally do two weeks on and two weeks off. The guides delight in pointing out radiation hotspots ;-)
Hardly anyone visits Belarus. I bet even Eadric hasn't been there.
Maybe that’s why Eastern Europe is barely affected.
Well it doesn't explain why Prague isn't affected unless they don't get many visitors in Jan/Feb/March,
My guess is that a large part of how badly you are affected is the existence of super-spreader events.
You know, things like beer pong. Or elevators in apartment complexes that don't get cleaned and have hundreds of residents going through them.
If you have a few of these super spreader events, then you get hammered because early on in the process one person gives fifty people the disease and now you have fifty disease vectors.
That's what happened in Milan and New York. And it's something that's very unlikely in cities without lots of dense public transport or high rise apartment blocks. It's why Munich was barely touched, while New York was hammered.
Some of Eastern Europe has big apartment complexes. But most of them are fairly low rise, and rely on people using - you know - the stairs. Plus the (relatively) old people that live in them don't tend to play beer pong that often.
The German academic who has been conducting antibody testing research, said that 40% of those who attended Carnival event got infected. Luckily, they were all very young.
Where as in the Austrian ski resort, the bar tender who appears to have been a super spreader came into contact with many more middle aged people.
At what point do we stop celebrating VE Day? We are not Germany’s enemies after all. We were talking about this over dinner and my missus said why not celebrate it as ‘the end of the war’ without mentioning ‘victory’ and maybe Germany could join in, making it a celebration of peace.
We still commemorate the end of WW1 of course.
We were never Germany's enemy, as our behaviour after WW2 clearly showed. We were Nazism's enemy. And we still are. I think it's good to remember what our ancestors fought for in that terrible struggle and why.
The Germans can join in if they want. After all, some Germans suffered under Nazism too - not just the 5 million dead in the war. Of course it will be more complicated for them.
Yes I just meant stop celebrating ‘victory’ and celebrate ‘the end of the war’ really, not to forget it happened or why people fought
Hopefully never.
We should remember our history - the good, the bad and the ugly. Lest we forget.
We should cease to celebrate victory on VE Day about the same time as the Americans cease to celebrate July 4th, or the French cease to celebrate Bastille Day.
You’re replying to a post where I say we should celebrate the end of the war, not to forget it or why people fought
We are friends with Germany, I don’t think it’s friendly to celebrate ‘victory’ where million of Germans died. We should celebrate the war ending
I couldn't disagree more with that logic though.
Americans celebrate victory in their war of independence against us. Doesn't mean they hate us.
We defeated the Nazis. We absolutely should celebrate that as a key moment in our history. The Germans today are not the Nazis. As well as liberating France etc, Hitler's downfall liberated Germany too, that's something to celebrate all around.
Well it’s ok to disagree. I wouldn’t be comfortable celebrating ‘victory’ in front of a German who’d lost his father in the war, so I think we should cease calling it a victory. Yes we defeated the Nazis, but millions of Germans who died were not Nazis.
Isn't that less of an issue now than it was in the past?
We're more likely now to be speaking to a German who may have lost his grandfather in the war.
However even then I'd hope most Germans are glad they lost the war, even if there are personal tragedies. My best friend growing up lost his mother's mother in a concentration camp, I'm never going to have any sympathy to anyone who regrets or is upset with us having defeated the Nazis.
I think it will bring out the worst in a lot of British people who see it as us vs The Germans, and would be better celebrated as the end of a terrible time for Europe rather than a victory for us over them
I don’t think people make the Nazi/German distinction
Hardly anyone visits Belarus. I bet even Eadric hasn't been there.
Maybe that’s why Eastern Europe is barely affected.
Well it doesn't explain why Prague isn't affected unless they don't get many visitors in Jan/Feb/March,
My guess is that a large part of how badly you are affected is the existence of super-spreader events.
You know, things like beer pong. Or elevators in apartment complexes that don't get cleaned and have hundreds of residents going through them.
If you have a few of these super spreader events, then you get hammered because early on in the process one person gives fifty people the disease and now you have fifty disease vectors.
That's what happened in Milan and New York. And it's something that's very unlikely in cities without lots of dense public transport or high rise apartment blocks. It's why Munich was barely touched, while New York was hammered.
Some of Eastern Europe has big apartment complexes. But most of them are fairly low rise, and rely on people using - you know - the stairs. Plus the (relatively) old people that live in them don't tend to play beer pong that often.
That would suggest 40 to 45% of under 70s in Stockholm have had CV-19. If true, that's extraordinary.
And to have achieved that with (relatively) low - and now declining - deaths.
If it's true, then Sweden's R is going to be well below 3 going forward, even if you removed all lockdown.
(It's really important to realise that R declines with the number of infectable people. R0 is its infection rate assuming everyone you meet can be infected. Over time, if you get to 50% with immunity, then only half the people you can meet can be infected. It cannot spread as quickly as it did. R, then, will be on a glidepath from, say, 4 when the disease is brand new, to under 1 when 60% of people have had the disease.)
I'm going to need some convincing there is anything approaching herd immunity anywhere outside of a Covid ward in a Bronx hospital.
We don’t even know if catching coronavirus confers ‘immunity’ let alone ‘herd immunity.
So, yeah. It’s bollox
SARS and MERS both conferred immunity*, and the stories about reinfection in South Korea have now been eliminated.
Really the question is not about if there is immunity, but how much immunity is conferred (no future cases, mild future cases or full on future cases?) and for how long (one year, three years, five years, fifty years).
This is a slow mutating virus, so the best guess is some to full and three to five years.
Hmm
‘Patients who recover from coronavirus are likely to have some immunity from the disease for up to three years, the government's chief scientific adviser has suggested.
Sir Patrick Vallance said those who have already caught COVID-19 will probably have a "degree of protection" from it but warned it "almost certainly" won't give a person "absolute immunity".
He cautioned "we don't know" if getting rid of the virus would stop someone catching it again and passing it on.‘
A degree of immunity. Not absolute. Up to 3 years. Maybe
It’s not entirely reassuring
Well you're not going to get a guarantee.
Maybe you'd get 90% immunity for 5 years.
Or maybe not.
But you're likely to get something for some time and during that time testing and treatment and knowledge of covid should improve.
Of course. I imagine catching this bug gives ‘some’ immunity. At least I bloody well hope so. Having possibly had it
But if i were wildly obese, badly immunodeficient, severely asthmatic, or 85 years old, I would not be relying on any putative *immunity*
You get immunity.
The question is how long for because it will be mutating in that time. If it mutates sufficiently then you can lose your immunity. Though even then future versions of the virus can hit you milder because you have partial immunity already.
Interestingly the Spanish Flu reportedly hit young adults disproportionately harder than you would normally expect (the elderly normally get hit hardest in any outbreak) - which is partially due to WWI and poverty at the time but partially due to the fact that there had been a bad flu outbreak in the 19th century that the 1918 elderly had survived so many may have already had antibodies that helped them when the Spanish Flu hit.
I think it just had a different pathway - the assumption on Spanish flu is that it killed at a flat rate, regardless of age. If it was an antibody thing then you'd have expected to see a cutoff at some point beyond which the mortality uplift started to decrease.
Incidentally, I think it's possible that a lot of pandemic models were based on a Spanish flu re-occurrence (and hence not especially useful). The (very) simple one I built about 10 years ago for a life/health insurer certainly was, and this was because I - as a relatively fresh graduate - was told that the industry standard approach was to peg to Swiss Re's study on the 1919 pandemic. There's certainly been a lot of thinking about the issue since then, but not any actual new data points, which is often the trigger for major changes in approach.
Incidentally, I think it's possible that a lot of pandemic models were based on a Spanish flu re-occurrence (and hence not especially useful)...
The interview I found of Ferguson from mid-February, being asked about modeling CV, he refers to very specific % of flu repeatedly e.g. % of those that don't show any symptoms. It seems like that was in the front of his mind / had been refreshing his knowledge about this particulars at that time. He doesn't mentions SARs or MERS.
That very article says that Chernobyl is in Ukraine but that the radiation spread to Belarus.
That's like saying if there was a nuclear incident in Calais which irradiated parts of Kent that Calais is in England.
Yes, exactly.
Maybe there's a road to Chernobyl around the Cape of Good Hope, avoiding the Straits of Hormuz, so you end up in Belarus?
I can heartily recommend a trip to the Belarusian sector of Chernobyl. It’s much less ‘touristy’ than the Ukrainian side. Indeed there are hardly any tourists at all. So you are free to pick up interesting pieces of graphite, stray metal rods, etc, as souvenirs
I don't think I'd want to be walking round Belarus picking up stray metal rods, even if it wasn't the country next door to the one with Chernobyl in.
And I certainly wouldn't want to do that in Chernobyl.
At what point do we stop celebrating VE Day? We are not Germany’s enemies after all. We were talking about this over dinner and my missus said why not celebrate it as ‘the end of the war’ without mentioning ‘victory’ and maybe Germany could join in, making it a celebration of peace.
We still commemorate the end of WW1 of course.
We were never Germany's enemy, as our behaviour after WW2 clearly showed. We were Nazism's enemy. And we still are. I think it's good to remember what our ancestors fought for in that terrible struggle and why.
The Germans can join in if they want. After all, some Germans suffered under Nazism too - not just the 5 million dead in the war. Of course it will be more complicated for them.
Yes I just meant stop celebrating ‘victory’ and celebrate ‘the end of the war’ really, not to forget it happened or why people fought
Hopefully never.
We should remember our history - the good, the bad and the ugly. Lest we forget.
We should cease to celebrate victory on VE Day about the same time as the Americans cease to celebrate July 4th, or the French cease to celebrate Bastille Day.
You’re replying to a post where I say we should celebrate the end of the war, not to forget it or why people fought
We are friends with Germany, I don’t think it’s friendly to celebrate ‘victory’ where million of Germans died. We should celebrate the war ending
I couldn't disagree more with that logic though.
Americans celebrate victory in their war of independence against us. Doesn't mean they hate us.
We defeated the Nazis. We absolutely should celebrate that as a key moment in our history. The Germans today are not the Nazis. As well as liberating France etc, Hitler's downfall liberated Germany too, that's something to celebrate all around.
Well it’s ok to disagree. I wouldn’t be comfortable celebrating ‘victory’ in front of a German who’d lost his father in the war, so I think we should cease calling it a victory. Yes we defeated the Nazis, but millions of Germans who died were not Nazis.
Isn't that less of an issue now than it was in the past?
We're more likely now to be speaking to a German who may have lost his grandfather in the war.
However even then I'd hope most Germans are glad they lost the war, even if there are personal tragedies. My best friend growing up lost his mother's mother in a concentration camp, I'm never going to have any sympathy to anyone who regrets or is upset with us having defeated the Nazis.
I think it will bring out the worst in a lot of British people who see it as us vs The Germans, and would be better celebrated as the end of a terrible time for Europe rather than a victory for us over them
I don’t think people make the Nazi/German distinction
Being German, I'd like to seize the opportunity to express how immensely glad and grateful I am for having had my fatherland liberated by the allied powers, after all attempts by my compatriots to get rid of the Austrian Corporal failed to achieve their objective. The British should enjoy their, arguably, finest hour. It should also be reminded that the Russians make even much more out of the occasion, and deservedly so.
That very article says that Chernobyl is in Ukraine but that the radiation spread to Belarus.
That's like saying if there was a nuclear incident in Calais which irradiated parts of Kent that Calais is in England.
Yes, exactly.
Maybe there's a road to Chernobyl around the Cape of Good Hope, avoiding the Straits of Hormuz, so you end up in Belarus?
I can heartily recommend a trip to the Belarusian sector of Chernobyl. It’s much less ‘touristy’ than the Ukrainian side. Indeed there are hardly any tourists at all. So you are free to pick up interesting pieces of graphite, stray metal rods, etc, as souvenirs
I don't think I'd want to be walking round Belarus picking up stray metal rods, even if it wasn't the country next door to the one with Chernobyl in.
And I certainly wouldn't want to do that in Chernobyl.
That would suggest 40 to 45% of under 70s in Stockholm have had CV-19. If true, that's extraordinary.
And to have achieved that with (relatively) low - and now declining - deaths.
If it's true, then Sweden's R is going to be well below 3 going forward, even if you removed all lockdown.
(It's really important to realise that R declines with the number of infectable people. R0 is its infection rate assuming everyone you meet can be infected. Over time, if you get to 50% with immunity, then only half the people you can meet can be infected. It cannot spread as quickly as it did. R, then, will be on a glidepath from, say, 4 when the disease is brand new, to under 1 when 60% of people have had the disease.)
I'm going to need some convincing there is anything approaching herd immunity anywhere outside of a Covid ward in a Bronx hospital.
We don’t even know if catching coronavirus confers ‘immunity’ let alone ‘herd immunity.
So, yeah. It’s bollox
SARS and MERS both conferred immunity*, and the stories about reinfection in South Korea have now been eliminated.
Really the question is not about if there is immunity, but how much immunity is conferred (no future cases, mild future cases or full on future cases?) and for how long (one year, three years, five years, fifty years).
This is a slow mutating virus, so the best guess is some to full and three to five years.
Hmm
‘Patients who recover from coronavirus are likely to have some immunity from the disease for up to three years, the government's chief scientific adviser has suggested.
Sir Patrick Vallance said those who have already caught COVID-19 will probably have a "degree of protection" from it but warned it "almost certainly" won't give a person "absolute immunity".
He cautioned "we don't know" if getting rid of the virus would stop someone catching it again and passing it on.‘
A degree of immunity. Not absolute. Up to 3 years. Maybe
It’s not entirely reassuring
Well you're not going to get a guarantee.
Maybe you'd get 90% immunity for 5 years.
Or maybe not.
But you're likely to get something for some time and during that time testing and treatment and knowledge of covid should improve.
Of course. I imagine catching this bug gives ‘some’ immunity. At least I bloody well hope so. Having possibly had it
But if i were wildly obese, badly immunodeficient, severely asthmatic, or 85 years old, I would not be relying on any putative *immunity*
You get immunity.
The question is how long for because it will be mutating in that time. If it mutates sufficiently then you can lose your immunity. Though even then future versions of the virus can hit you milder because you have partial immunity already.
Interestingly the Spanish Flu reportedly hit young adults disproportionately harder than you would normally expect (the elderly normally get hit hardest in any outbreak) - which is partially due to WWI and poverty at the time but partially due to the fact that there had been a bad flu outbreak in the 19th century that the 1918 elderly had survived so many may have already had antibodies that helped them when the Spanish Flu hit.
I think it just had a different pathway - the assumption on Spanish flu is that it killed at a flat rate, regardless of age. If it was an antibody thing then you'd have expected to see a cutoff at some point beyond which the mortality uplift started to decrease.
Incidentally, I think it's possible that a lot of pandemic models were based on a Spanish flu re-occurrence (and hence not especially useful). The (very) simple one I built about 10 years ago for a life/health insurer certainly was, and this was because I - as a relatively fresh graduate - was told that the industry standard approach was to peg to Swiss Re's study on the 1919 pandemic. There's certainly been a lot of thinking about the issue since then, but not any actual new data points, which is often the trigger for major changes in approach.
Spanish Flu triggered a cytokine storm in those with stronger immune systems, so did kill younger people more than expected.
Look at his tweet feed. Sent completely mad by Brexit
FBPE of course. Having FBPE in your Twitter bio is like having ‘normal for Norfolk’ in your medical history
I don't even know what "FBPE" means.
First Born Penis Envy?
Follow Back, Pro European.
"Follow Back"??? That's just odd, that is.
Its what all the cool kids used to say in about 2016. Now it has been co-oped by outraged Remainer Tw@tters, where as the yuff have moved on to TikTok and alike.
Look at his tweet feed. Sent completely mad by Brexit
FBPE of course. Having FBPE in your Twitter bio is like having ‘normal for Norfolk’ in your medical history
I don't even know what "FBPE" means.
First Born Penis Envy?
Follow Back, Pro European.
"Follow Back"??? That's just odd, that is.
It's the worst acronym I've ever encountered. I've Googled it at least a dozen times and every time I forget what it stands for in about five minutes. It's just totally unintuitive.
At what point do we stop celebrating VE Day? We are not Germany’s enemies after all. We were talking about this over dinner and my missus said why not celebrate it as ‘the end of the war’ without mentioning ‘victory’ and maybe Germany could join in, making it a celebration of peace.
We still commemorate the end of WW1 of course.
We were never Germany's enemy, as our behaviour after WW2 clearly showed. We were Nazism's enemy. And we still are. I think it's good to remember what our ancestors fought for in that terrible struggle and why.
The Germans can join in if they want. After all, some Germans suffered under Nazism too - not just the 5 million dead in the war. Of course it will be more complicated for them.
Yes I just meant stop celebrating ‘victory’ and celebrate ‘the end of the war’ really, not to forget it happened or why people fought
Hopefully never.
We should remember our history - the good, the bad and the ugly. Lest we forget.
We should cease to celebrate victory on VE Day about the same time as the Americans cease to celebrate July 4th, or the French cease to celebrate Bastille Day.
You’re replying to a post where I say we should celebrate the end of the war, not to forget it or why people fought
We are friends with Germany, I don’t think it’s friendly to celebrate ‘victory’ where million of Germans died. We should celebrate the war ending
I couldn't disagree more with that logic though.
Americans celebrate victory in their war of independence against us. Doesn't mean they hate us.
We defeated the Nazis. We absolutely should celebrate that as a key moment in our history. The Germans today are not the Nazis. As well as liberating France etc, Hitler's downfall liberated Germany too, that's something to celebrate all around.
Well it’s ok to disagree. I wouldn’t be comfortable celebrating ‘victory’ in front of a German who’d lost his father in the war, so I think we should cease calling it a victory. Yes we defeated the Nazis, but millions of Germans who died were not Nazis.
If you were American would you be equally uncomfortable celebrating Independence Day in front of a Brit whose ancestor was a redcoat killed in the War of Independence?
How many Britons, other than maybe @Charles, even know they have an ancestor killed during the American War of Independence?
"Labour MP Nadia Whittome sacked as carer for speaking out about PPE shortages
The Nottingham East MP returned to the frontline when covid-19 hit in order to use her experience as a care worker. But she has now lost her job after voicing concerns about the safety of staff"
I wonder when it will dawn on Trump and the Republicans generally that they're risking losing a lot more of their voters than the Democrats will lose.
Not until they're well into the next wave - the first one was urban and disproportionately black. Old rural white people are next. However the main principle of conservatism is now denying the concept of causality, so they won't respond until their voters actually die in large numbers.
That very article says that Chernobyl is in Ukraine but that the radiation spread to Belarus.
That's like saying if there was a nuclear incident in Calais which irradiated parts of Kent that Calais is in England.
Yes, exactly.
Maybe there's a road to Chernobyl around the Cape of Good Hope, avoiding the Straits of Hormuz, so you end up in Belarus?
I can heartily recommend a trip to the Belarusian sector of Chernobyl. It’s much less ‘touristy’ than the Ukrainian side. Indeed there are hardly any tourists at all. So you are free to pick up interesting pieces of graphite, stray metal rods, etc, as souvenirs
That very article says that Chernobyl is in Ukraine but that the radiation spread to Belarus.
That's like saying if there was a nuclear incident in Calais which irradiated parts of Kent that Calais is in England.
Yes, exactly.
Maybe there's a road to Chernobyl around the Cape of Good Hope, avoiding the Straits of Hormuz, so you end up in Belarus?
I can heartily recommend a trip to the Belarusian sector of Chernobyl. It’s much less ‘touristy’ than the Ukrainian side. Indeed there are hardly any tourists at all. So you are free to pick up interesting pieces of graphite, stray metal rods, etc, as souvenirs
Chernobyl is in Ukraine, not Belarus.
Hmmm. Not sure. Ask people about "Chernobyl" and they will not say it is a place, but rather an event. The site of the world's worst nuclear accident. And that site incorporates the Palieski State Radioecological Reserve.
Comments
Gov. Cuomo said they were clearly becoming infected as a result of personal behavior, something that can't be controlled by his lock-down.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8293417/66-New-York-coronavirus-hospitalizations-people-staying-HOME.html
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11565196/gyms-closed-lockdown-autumn-coronavirus/
So they will be able to reopen for about 2 weeks until the second wave hits.
There is probably some herd immunity effect already in London which is why the lockdown is succeeding so well in London (which was struck first) while other regions are being slower to see hospitalisation rates fall.
https://twitter.com/fatemperor/status/1258041848955908098?s=21
As to public transport, though I'm not sure why you've brought that up, it clearly is more important in London than it is in other places - I use it myself when I'm there.
I've spent over a decade on PB saying we need to live within our means and that our economy and lifestyle was fundamentally unbalanced and could not continue in the same way forever.
That era seems likely now to come to an end - believe it or not I do have sympathy for those who will lose out and hope that they can take pleasure in the cheaper and simpler options that still remain to us.
We should remember our history - the good, the bad and the ugly. Lest we forget.
We should cease to celebrate victory on VE Day about the same time as the Americans cease to celebrate July 4th, or the French cease to celebrate Bastille Day.
Its like saying what was the world's tallest mountain before Mount Everest was discovered?
We are friends with Germany, I don’t think it’s friendly to celebrate ‘victory’ where million of Germans died. We should celebrate the war ending
I assume that even in Stockholm that a person with symptoms is told not to go to work.
Sweden has implemented a policy that looks not a million miles from the UK pre full lockdown - i.e. restrictions that keep R at a reasonable level, say 1 to 1.5, and to try and keep oldies hidden away.
They are lucky that - even in Stockholm - they have relatively low population density (no megablocks of apartments where everyone uses the same lift). So, they are less likely to get crazy run away growth.
I hope they really are as far through this as they think. Because if they are, then we'll back to (almost) normal in three or four months.
Really the question is not about if there is immunity, but how much immunity is conferred (no future cases, mild future cases or full on future cases?) and for how long (one year, three years, five years, fifty years).
This is a slow mutating virus, so the best guess is some to full and three to five years.
Americans celebrate victory in their war of independence against us. Doesn't mean they hate us.
We defeated the Nazis. We absolutely should celebrate that as a key moment in our history. The Germans today are not the Nazis. As well as liberating France etc, Hitler's downfall liberated Germany too, that's something to celebrate all around.
This time there was a wolf.
Maybe you'd get 90% immunity for 5 years.
Or maybe not.
But you're likely to get something for some time and during that time testing and treatment and knowledge of covid should improve.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/can-covid19-reinfect-us-david-l-katz-md-mph-facpm-facp-faclm
The question is how long for because it will be mutating in that time. If it mutates sufficiently then you can lose your immunity. Though even then future versions of the virus can hit you milder because you have partial immunity already.
Interestingly the Spanish Flu reportedly hit young adults disproportionately harder than you would normally expect (the elderly normally get hit hardest in any outbreak) - which is partially due to WWI and poverty at the time but partially due to the fact that there had been a bad flu outbreak in the 19th century that the 1918 elderly had survived so many may have already had antibodies that helped them when the Spanish Flu hit.
The old and intrinsically sick have their problems but many millions could profitably eat/drink/smoke less and exercise more.
Doing so will not only increase their chances with covid but improve their lives generally.
I have been to Prague.
If all that happens is that people are sick for half as long, then it means they (on average) pass it on to half as many people.
We're more likely now to be speaking to a German who may have lost his grandfather in the war.
However even then I'd hope most Germans are glad they lost the war, even if there are personal tragedies. My best friend growing up lost his mother's mother in a concentration camp, I'm never going to have any sympathy to anyone who regrets or is upset with us having defeated the Nazis.
It is close to the border with Belarus, but it is in Ukraine.
The infected zone straddles the border, sure, of course it does. But that’s not what I wrote or what you wrote.
The plant is in Ukraine.
Chernobyl is in Ukraine.
That's like saying if there was a nuclear incident in Calais which irradiated parts of Kent that Calais is in England.
Good smoke signal for SKS.
You know, things like beer pong. Or elevators in apartment complexes that don't get cleaned and have hundreds of residents going through them.
If you have a few of these super spreader events, then you get hammered because early on in the process one person gives fifty people the disease and now you have fifty disease vectors.
That's what happened in Milan and New York. And it's something that's very unlikely in cities without lots of dense public transport or high rise apartment blocks. It's why Munich was barely touched, while New York was hammered.
Some of Eastern Europe has big apartment complexes. But most of them are fairly low rise, and rely on people using - you know - the stairs. Plus the (relatively) old people that live in them don't tend to play beer pong that often.
Where as in the Austrian ski resort, the bar tender who appears to have been a super spreader came into contact with many more middle aged people.
I don’t think people make the Nazi/German distinction
Incidentally, I think it's possible that a lot of pandemic models were based on a Spanish flu re-occurrence (and hence not especially useful). The (very) simple one I built about 10 years ago for a life/health insurer certainly was, and this was because I - as a relatively fresh graduate - was told that the industry standard approach was to peg to Swiss Re's study on the 1919 pandemic. There's certainly been a lot of thinking about the issue since then, but not any actual new data points, which is often the trigger for major changes in approach.
And I certainly wouldn't want to do that in Chernobyl.
The British should enjoy their, arguably, finest hour.
It should also be reminded that the Russians make even much more out of the occasion, and deservedly so.
https://twitter.com/peterdilworth1/status/1258140122593329155?s=21
First Born Penis Envy?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/06/science/llama-coronavirus-antibodies.html
The Nottingham East MP returned to the frontline when covid-19 hit in order to use her experience as a care worker. But she has now lost her job after voicing concerns about the safety of staff"
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/labour-mp-nadia-whittome-sacked-21985519
Which is wholly in Belarus.