It is a valid news story to point out that the UK official death toll passed that of Italy today, given the attention Italy was getting earlier. In terms of actual comparisons, the UK can be grouped with Belgium, Spain, Italy and France as the European countries with very high death rates. If you want to rank those counties further, France comes fifth and the other countries, it depends on what point you are trying to make.
Is it, when the numbers can't be fairly compared?
I challenge that they can't be fairly compared. It depends on what point you are trying to make. Belgium has the highest per capita death rate, a position it will probably hold going forward. The UK has the highest official death toll now and because it is lagging the others will almost certainly end the initial phase of the epidemic with the highest death toll overall under any definition. Italy has had the greatest localised death rates.
I'm not sure whether it's a good idea or not to bring WW2 in as much as people do, but there are three reasons why people will continue to do so:
- WW2 is so well known: anybody of even average intelligence knows its basic outlines - it was so complex that people can use it to support (attack) more or less any point they want to make (oppose) - it defined so much of the modern world, and especially Europe.
So people will keep dragging WW2 into everything, at least until there is an even more destructive and all-emcompassing war. Which, on the whole, I would oppose.
This guys situation may have been a rather unfortunate one, if self inflicted, but its getting way more coverage than it deserves. Its one guy, there are plenty of other big brains working away in the background.
However, either off his own bat or at the government request, has been basically on every tv show, YouTube channel and newspaper channel going. I am not sure even Chris Witty has given as much copy.
Plenty of the other "big brains" have quietly got on with their work in virtual anonymity.
Being PE everything has to be taken with a certain modicum of salt but even so, this is an interesting read:
Very interesting how the Imperial modelling team at the time (presumably largely or entirely via Roy Anderson, so this isn't necessarily a direct comment on Ferguson himself) carefully cultivated the media not just to improve the research group's image/standing but to try to "bounce" policy decisions when rivals were suggesting the evidence favoured alternative approaches.
(The eagle-eyed may note Christl Donnelly being quoted a lot in pieces about her colleague Ferguson at present! And recall the Oxford epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta for her criticism of the Imperial team's modelling assumptions earlier in the epidemic, a bit - or rather, a heck of a lot - of history there...)
Doesn't detract from the fact Anderson / Ferguson are high-profile figures who have made very important contributions to the field. But ability to play the media is a handy skill to have if you're involved in policy-determining research.
It is a valid news story to point out that the UK official death toll passed that of Italy today, given the attention Italy was getting earlier. In terms of actual comparisons, the UK can be grouped with Belgium, Spain, Italy and France as the European countries with very high death rates. If you want to rank those counties further, France comes fifth and the other countries, it depends on what point you are trying to make.
Is it, when the numbers can't be fairly compared?
I challenge that they can't be fairly compared. It depends on what point you are trying to make. Belgium has the highest per capita death rate, a position it will probably hold going forward. The UK has the highest official death toll now and because it is lagging the others will almost certainly end the initial phase of the epidemic with the highest death toll overall under any definition. Italy has had the greatest localised death rates.
They can't be fairly compared because they are incomplete. It was revealed only today that Italy's numbers were underestimated by 50%!
When we stood alone in WWII, it was our finest hour as a nation.
It is part of our national character, etched on our psyche, one of defiance, resiliance - it is a history to be proud of.
It's a myth. We were an empire.
The speech recognises that
And kyf_100's comment doesn't.
Yawn. Pathetic.
If I'd said "the finest hour in our empire's history" you would have accused me of being a fascist, racist, imperialist for mere mention of the word "empire".
I used the words part of our national character because that is what it is.
I think your problem is that you think it's disgusting to be proud of your country so you want to use semantics to justify your hatred. Fair enough, but that's hardly my problem.
I'm very patriotic, but the UK is an artificial political union that should be abolished.
All countries are artifical political unions. One world government is not realistic or even necessarily desirable, at the present time at the very least, but I am curious what you would consider to not be an artificial union. One based on geography? Language? Why would that be the case that that prevents polities within those two, and what if they conflict? Is France an artificial union? It didn't always have the level of shared character it does now after all. What about Germany? China? Eswatini?
If enough people believe a union should exist it will exist and be real. When they don't believe in it enough, it will fall.
The UK is more artificial than most. If Corsica left France, it would still be France. If Northern Ireland left the UK, the UK would no longer exist.
Wouldn't the equivalent be the Isle of Wight?
Replace Corsica with Alsace if you don't like that example.
On topic the real injustice is that every anniversary VJ Day is largely ignored. Even with Colonel Tom's walking heroics only a few would have noticed his service was in India and Burma.
Indeed. Have complained to the Council about their publicity to celebrate the end of WW2. Cos that's how I roll.
It is a valid news story to point out that the UK official death toll passed that of Italy today, given the attention Italy was getting earlier. In terms of actual comparisons, the UK can be grouped with Belgium, Spain, Italy and France as the European countries with very high death rates. If you want to rank those counties further, France comes fifth and the other countries, it depends on what point you are trying to make.
Is it, when the numbers can't be fairly compared?
I challenge that they can't be fairly compared. It depends on what point you are trying to make. Belgium has the highest per capita death rate, a position it will probably hold going forward. The UK has the highest official death toll now and because it is lagging the others will almost certainly end the initial phase of the epidemic with the highest death toll overall under any definition. Italy has had the greatest localised death rates.
They can't be fairly compared because they are incomplete. It was revealed only today that Italy's numbers were underestimated by 50%!
I don't think that's the case. Do you have the link?
On topic the real injustice is that every anniversary VJ Day is largely ignored. Even with Colonel Tom's walking heroics only a few would have noticed his service was in India and Burma.
Indeed. Have complained to the Council about their publicity to celebrate the end of WW2. Cos that's how I roll.
It is a valid news story to point out that the UK official death toll passed that of Italy today, given the attention Italy was getting earlier. In terms of actual comparisons, the UK can be grouped with Belgium, Spain, Italy and France as the European countries with very high death rates. If you want to rank those counties further, France comes fifth and the other countries, it depends on what point you are trying to make.
Is it, when the numbers can't be fairly compared?
I challenge that they can't be fairly compared. It depends on what point you are trying to make. Belgium has the highest per capita death rate, a position it will probably hold going forward. The UK has the highest official death toll now and because it is lagging the others will almost certainly end the initial phase of the epidemic with the highest death toll overall under any definition. Italy has had the greatest localised death rates.
They can't be fairly compared because they are incomplete. It was revealed only today that Italy's numbers were underestimated by 50%!
I don't think that's the case. Do you have the link?
273 quarantined pax out of 18,000,000 who entered the UK while the pandemic was underway.....
Shutting the border in January would have been a bit extreme given the circumstances at the time, don't you think?
They didn't need to shut the border completely in January, but they could have shut it to people arriving from countries where the virus was already well established.
It is a valid news story to point out that the UK official death toll passed that of Italy today, given the attention Italy was getting earlier. In terms of actual comparisons, the UK can be grouped with Belgium, Spain, Italy and France as the European countries with very high death rates. If you want to rank those counties further, France comes fifth and the other countries, it depends on what point you are trying to make.
Is it, when the numbers can't be fairly compared?
I challenge that they can't be fairly compared. It depends on what point you are trying to make. Belgium has the highest per capita death rate, a position it will probably hold going forward. The UK has the highest official death toll now and because it is lagging the others will almost certainly end the initial phase of the epidemic with the highest death toll overall under any definition. Italy has had the greatest localised death rates.
273 quarantined pax out of 18,000,000 who entered the UK while the pandemic was underway.....
Shutting the border in January would have been a bit extreme given the circumstances at the time, don't you think?
They didn't need to shut the border completely in January, but they could have shut it to people arriving from countries where the virus was already well established.
I doubt that would have helped because of the incubation period.
“The admission that just four flights from two locations, barely a few hundred individuals – out of literally millions of arrivals – were formally quarantined while the pandemic was already raging in a series of locations beggars belief.
“On what scientific basis were a handful of flights from Wuhan and one from a Tokyo singled out for extreme attention? But not a single flight from Northern Italy, Spain or the US?
“The fact that many of these people then likely arrived and travelled onwards across the UK with little or no adherence to social distancing, and with no checks or protections at the border – barely a whiff of hand sanitiser – is deeply disturbing. Let alone the arrival of 3,000 fans from Madrid [for a football match against Liverpool] as the pandemic picked up speed.
“Yet arrivals continue to this day – with no formal quarantine requirements. It is simply staggering. Who made these decisions? And on what basis?”"
Re second para, I believe we and France were actually the only two nations to declare war on Nazi Germany. Not for a moment suggesting the others were dragged into it.
That's not quite true. I think the Dominions declared war on Nazi Germany separately, though Sir Robert Menzies of Australia said that the British declaration bound Australia. Canada waited until a week later to declare war on Germany. Also, lots of South American countries declared war on the Germans once it was clear that the Germans were losing.
There is an amusing story that Ribbentrop had to have the mail box of the German Foreign Ministry welded shut to avoid receiving yet more declarations of war by 1943.
It is a valid news story to point out that the UK official death toll passed that of Italy today, given the attention Italy was getting earlier. In terms of actual comparisons, the UK can be grouped with Belgium, Spain, Italy and France as the European countries with very high death rates. If you want to rank those counties further, France comes fifth and the other countries, it depends on what point you are trying to make.
and the point you're trying to make is?
I was commenting on the figures and not making a point, but I will make one now. It strikes me that some people are more concerned that the media should not report on things embarrassing to the government than in the validity of those reports.
On topic the real injustice is that every anniversary VJ Day is largely ignored. Even with Colonel Tom's walking heroics only a few would have noticed his service was in India and Burma.
Indeed. Have complained to the Council about their publicity to celebrate the end of WW2. Cos that's how I roll.
You think it should have continued?
Ha ha ha! Of course it did continue for a few months
273 quarantined pax out of 18,000,000 who entered the UK while the pandemic was underway.....
Shutting the border in January would have been a bit extreme given the circumstances at the time, don't you think?
But Vallance said many of the cases came from the “high level of travel.
“One of the things that it looks like very clear is that early in March the UK got many, many different imports of virus from many different places,” he said. Those places were particularly from European countries with outbreaks.
"The government continues to allow arrivals into the UK without screening or enforced quarantine, which the home secretary, Priti Patel, said was based on advice from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage)."
273 quarantined pax out of 18,000,000 who entered the UK while the pandemic was underway.....
Shutting the border in January would have been a bit extreme given the circumstances at the time, don't you think?
But Vallance said many of the cases came from the “high level of travel.
“One of the things that it looks like very clear is that early in March the UK got many, many different imports of virus from many different places,” he said. Those places were particularly from European countries with outbreaks.
"The government continues to allow arrivals into the UK without screening or enforced quarantine, which the home secretary, Priti Patel, said was based on advice from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage)."
Because it's pointless now, but it's clear they are thinking of enforcing a 14-day quarantine for new arrivals once infection rates are low enough.
On topic the real injustice is that every anniversary VJ Day is largely ignored. Even with Colonel Tom's walking heroics only a few would have noticed his service was in India and Burma.
Indeed. Have complained to the Council about their publicity to celebrate the end of WW2. Cos that's how I roll.
You think it should have continued?
Ha ha ha! Of course it did continue for a few months
It is a valid news story to point out that the UK official death toll passed that of Italy today, given the attention Italy was getting earlier. In terms of actual comparisons, the UK can be grouped with Belgium, Spain, Italy and France as the European countries with very high death rates. If you want to rank those counties further, France comes fifth and the other countries, it depends on what point you are trying to make.
Is it, when the numbers can't be fairly compared?
I challenge that they can't be fairly compared. It depends on what point you are trying to make. Belgium has the highest per capita death rate, a position it will probably hold going forward. The UK has the highest official death toll now and because it is lagging the others will almost certainly end the initial phase of the epidemic with the highest death toll overall under any definition. Italy has had the greatest localised death rates.
They can't be fairly compared because they are incomplete. It was revealed only today that Italy's numbers were underestimated by 50%!
Until last week, the UK didn't count non-hospital deaths!
I'd be very surprised if 18 million people were allowed into the UK in just three months. The UK only gets 40 million tourists per year, and I doubt most of them come for the weather in February.
It is a valid news story to point out that the UK official death toll passed that of Italy today, given the attention Italy was getting earlier. In terms of actual comparisons, the UK can be grouped with Belgium, Spain, Italy and France as the European countries with very high death rates. If you want to rank those counties further, France comes fifth and the other countries, it depends on what point you are trying to make.
Is it, when the numbers can't be fairly compared?
I challenge that they can't be fairly compared. It depends on what point you are trying to make. Belgium has the highest per capita death rate, a position it will probably hold going forward. The UK has the highest official death toll now and because it is lagging the others will almost certainly end the initial phase of the epidemic with the highest death toll overall under any definition. Italy has had the greatest localised death rates.
They can't be fairly compared because they are incomplete. It was revealed only today that Italy's numbers were underestimated by 50%!
Until last week, the UK didn't count non-hospital deaths!
And now it does, and now it has a higher rate. Not too surprising really.
I'd be very surprised if 18 million people were allowed into the UK in just three months. The UK only gets 40 million tourists per year, and I doubt most of them come for the weather in February.
It is a valid news story to point out that the UK official death toll passed that of Italy today, given the attention Italy was getting earlier. In terms of actual comparisons, the UK can be grouped with Belgium, Spain, Italy and France as the European countries with very high death rates. If you want to rank those counties further, France comes fifth and the other countries, it depends on what point you are trying to make.
Is it, when the numbers can't be fairly compared?
I challenge that they can't be fairly compared. It depends on what point you are trying to make. Belgium has the highest per capita death rate, a position it will probably hold going forward. The UK has the highest official death toll now and because it is lagging the others will almost certainly end the initial phase of the epidemic with the highest death toll overall under any definition. Italy has had the greatest localised death rates.
They can't be fairly compared because they are incomplete. It was revealed only today that Italy's numbers were underestimated by 50%!
I don't think that's the case. Do you have the link?
We're talking about the part of the excess (above seasonal average) deaths that are attributed to CV19. Italy has attributed a smaller proportion of those to CV19 than the UK. I expect the UK to see a greater number of excess deaths by the time this phase of the epidemic is finished, given it is lagging the Italian epidemic and the decrease is slower.
I'd be very surprised if 18 million people were allowed into the UK in just three months. The UK only gets 40 million tourists per year, and I doubt most of them come for the weather in February.
Brits returning from holidays?
Ah yes, the millions that go on holiday in February.
I'd be very surprised if 18 million people were allowed into the UK in just three months. The UK only gets 40 million tourists per year, and I doubt most of them come for the weather in February.
Heathrow has 80 million passengers per year. Not everyone flying into the country is a tourist.
It is a valid news story to point out that the UK official death toll passed that of Italy today, given the attention Italy was getting earlier. In terms of actual comparisons, the UK can be grouped with Belgium, Spain, Italy and France as the European countries with very high death rates. If you want to rank those counties further, France comes fifth and the other countries, it depends on what point you are trying to make.
Is it, when the numbers can't be fairly compared?
I challenge that they can't be fairly compared. It depends on what point you are trying to make. Belgium has the highest per capita death rate, a position it will probably hold going forward. The UK has the highest official death toll now and because it is lagging the others will almost certainly end the initial phase of the epidemic with the highest death toll overall under any definition. Italy has had the greatest localised death rates.
They can't be fairly compared because they are incomplete. It was revealed only today that Italy's numbers were underestimated by 50%!
I don't think that's the case. Do you have the link?
We're talking about the part of the excess (above seasonal average) deaths that are attributed to CV19. Italy has attributed a smaller proportion of those to CV19 than the UK. I expect the UK to see a greater number of excess deaths by the time this phase of the epidemic is finished, given it is lagging the Italian epidemic and the decrease is slower.
I'm not sure how you can do that when the excess death figure for Italy was only available up to the end of March as stated in this FT article. The comparison is being done on the headline figure which is incomplete.
- The list of countries/places added to the Foreign Office's "hotspot" list always seemed to be updated erratically, like they were playing catch-up. I guess that's understandable if you're operating under great uncertainty, but the way the costs are balanced it would have been better to err on the side of proactivity and name regions where the epidemic seemed to be starting to take off, rather than wait for it to have actually done so.
- Returning passengers reported a lack of guidance on whether they should self-isolate. It would be unreasonable to expect everyone to look up on a website whether they should self-isolate or not. Could airline staff have issued instructions? Could health officials have met arriving flights so people could get some more informed advice? It wouldn't have been possible to get every returnee from Italy to stay at an official venue like a hotel/hall of residence to be watched over, but people isolating at home was a reasonable idea that would only have worked if backed up with strong, personal advice.
I do understand why they didn't both doing "checks" at airport - the thermometer spot-checks would have been more security theatre than anything. And I also understand why they didn't stop all flights back then (their modelling had shown it would only delay things by days at best) and why more flights are still arriving now (the reason these don't actually make much difference right now is pretty intuitive, once the disease is already well-established here new imports make relatively little difference, especially while lockdown means new outbreaks will tend to peter out fairly quickly). But if we reach the stage where the disease is largely suppressed, then it becomes more urgent to think what we can do about arriving passengers to stop new outbreaks. Thermometers at airports are not going to cut it while 14 days' isolation at approved venues is going to be very expensive and limiting. I wonder if we are going to see a combination of a shorter isolation period with a requirement to pass negative on several tests taken a few days apart.
I'd be very surprised if 18 million people were allowed into the UK in just three months. The UK only gets 40 million tourists per year, and I doubt most of them come for the weather in February.
Heathrow has 80 million passengers per year. Not everyone flying into the country is a tourist.
I'd be very surprised if 18 million people were allowed into the UK in just three months. The UK only gets 40 million tourists per year, and I doubt most of them come for the weather in February.
Heathrow has 80 million passengers per year. Not everyone flying into the country is a tourist.
How many of those stay in the UK vs. transfer?
UK Border Force stats show they processed 137,901,821 total people in 2018.
It also wasn't a referendum. You delightfully once spent post after post posting details of the Protestant/Catholic breakdown in constituencies as if it was a purely religious function whilst completely ignoring the increasing gap between religion & political party choice. What also you ignored was the way people designated themselves in the 2011 census which would have indicated that self designation of Irishness first doesn't exactly have a strong position.
What you quoted is done partially by apportioning by postcode, one of them is done 100% by voluntary choice of designation. Which one do you think tells you more about where people are?
What you have failed to see is that despite the census having it there to see is that party political choice, as indeed is religion, is only a partial determinant of the view about what people see themselves as as well as where people want to be, part of Britain or part of Ireland. People vote a lot more often here on what is local, ie who represents their 'community' that is not the same as saying they want a United Ireland or the Union with the UK.
We've heard this over simplistic ra ra shit that you churn out today for decades; that its a game of religious outbreeding, which I assume you believe in given your posts in the past. Brexit is just the latest thing that's going turn unionists with a small u into first rate supporters of Irish unity
Nothing and no one beyond the usual suspects (who tried to bomb us out, tried to guilt us out and claimed we'd be out by 2016) has actually suggested Irish unity is near at all, you know why? Because a majority of people are comfortable enough with where they are thanks.
If you understood how the culture here has developed you'd know that.
And the DUP won most MPs and the Unionist parties won more votes than Nationalist parties in Northern Ireland
But Unionists only won 8 out of 18 seats. Compare 2015 and 2017 when they won 11 seats.
Irrelevant as the Alliance is non sectarian.
The DUP and UUP also won more votes combined in 2019 than in 2010 or 2015.
Unionist still won only 8 out 18 Westminster seats, the lowest tally since Partition.
Irrelevant as the Conservative and Unionist Party won an overall majority at Westminster, all that matters in Northern Ireland is votes and Unionist parties won 43% of Northern Irish votes to just 38% for Nationalist parties
When we stood alone in WWII, it was our finest hour as a nation.
It is part of our national character, etched on our psyche, one of defiance, resiliance - it is a history to be proud of.
It's a myth. We were an empire.
The speech recognises that
And kyf_100's comment doesn't.
Yawn. Pathetic.
If I'd said "the finest hour in our empire's history" you would have accused me of being a fascist, racist, imperialist for mere mention of the word "empire".
I used the words part of our national character because that is what it is.
I think your problem is that you think it's disgusting to be proud of your country so you want to use semantics to justify your hatred. Fair enough, but that's hardly my problem.
I'm very patriotic, but the UK is an artificial political union that should be abolished.
All countries are artifical political unions. One world government is not realistic or even necessarily desirable, at the present time at the very least, but I am curious what you would consider to not be an artificial union. One based on geography? Language? Why would that be the case that that prevents polities within those two, and what if they conflict? Is France an artificial union? It didn't always have the level of shared character it does now after all. What about Germany? China? Eswatini?
If enough people believe a union should exist it will exist and be real. When they don't believe in it enough, it will fall.
The UK is more artificial than most. If Corsica left France, it would still be France. If Northern Ireland left the UK, the UK would no longer exist.
Wouldn't the equivalent be the Isle of Wight?
Replace Corsica with Alsace if you don't like that example.
Alsace is spoils of war not part of France
Alsace became French long before Scotland became "British".
I'd be very surprised if 18 million people were allowed into the UK in just three months. The UK only gets 40 million tourists per year, and I doubt most of them come for the weather in February.
Heathrow has 80 million passengers per year. Not everyone flying into the country is a tourist.
How many of those stay in the UK vs. transfer?
UK Border Force stats show they processed 137,901,821 total people in 2018.
- The list of countries/places added to the Foreign Office's "hotspot" list always seemed to be updated erratically, like they were playing catch-up. I guess that's understandable if you're operating under great uncertainty, but the way the costs are balanced it would have been better to err on the side of proactivity and name regions where the epidemic seemed to be starting to take off, rather than wait for it to have actually done so.
- Returning passengers reported a lack of guidance on whether they should self-isolate. It would be unreasonable to expect everyone to look up on a website whether they should self-isolate or not. Could airline staff have issued instructions? Could health officials have met arriving flights so people could get some more informed advice? It wouldn't have been possible to get every returnee from Italy to stay at an official venue like a hotel/hall of residence to be watched over, but people isolating at home was a reasonable idea that would only have worked if backed up with strong, personal advice.
I do understand why they didn't both doing "checks" at airport - the thermometer spot-checks would have been more security theatre than anything. And I also understand why they didn't stop all flights back then (their modelling had shown it would only delay things by days at best) and why more flights are still arriving now (the reason these don't actually make much difference right now is pretty intuitive, once the disease is already well-established here new imports make relatively little difference, especially while lockdown means new outbreaks will tend to peter out fairly quickly). But if we reach the stage where the disease is largely suppressed, then it becomes more urgent to think what we can do about arriving passengers to stop new outbreaks. Thermometers at airports are not going to cut it while 14 days' isolation at approved venues is going to be very expensive and limiting. I wonder if we are going to see a combination of a shorter isolation period with a requirement to pass negative on several tests taken a few days apart.
It is tough. Who the heck is going to go anywhere if they have to quarantine on arrival for a fortnight then again on return? The airline and travel industry are finished. However. People were flying home from hotspots well into very early lockdown. With no temperature checks and no enforcement. They were literally disrmbarking off flights from N Italy and Spain. Being advised to self-isolate. And then blithely getting on public transport to do so. This was endemic at Manchester Airport. An integrated public transport system to the airport aint all its cracked up to be.
It is a valid news story to point out that the UK official death toll passed that of Italy today, given the attention Italy was getting earlier. In terms of actual comparisons, the UK can be grouped with Belgium, Spain, Italy and France as the European countries with very high death rates. If you want to rank those counties further, France comes fifth and the other countries, it depends on what point you are trying to make.
Is it, when the numbers can't be fairly compared?
I challenge that they can't be fairly compared. It depends on what point you are trying to make. Belgium has the highest per capita death rate, a position it will probably hold going forward. The UK has the highest official death toll now and because it is lagging the others will almost certainly end the initial phase of the epidemic with the highest death toll overall under any definition. Italy has had the greatest localised death rates.
Over the last 7 days, the UK has recorded 2,169 more deaths than Italy. Should something close to that difference be maintained, our official per capita death rate will also exceed Italy's within 2 weeks. Although the methodologies appear very similar, based on deaths in all situations of someone who had tested positive, the fact that the UK has still tested at only half the numbers in Italy will have suppressed our figures.
You can of course argue that the UK was slightly more at risk due to poor health or average population density, or that Italy was more at slightly more risk due to its much more concentrated outbreak (in the densely populated north) and its older population. I think that's splitting hairs. The key overwhelming point in terms of judging which country might be expected to have the higher death rate is this. Italy was in the vanguard of cases in Europe, whereas we were behind the curve and had the opportunity to react in anticipation. Yet we did very little to act or prepare in those vital extra weeks. The UK was afforded a breathing space put to good use in Germany and other countries (eg. Portugal), an opportunity that Italy never had, yet we squandered our chance.
Figures from the Italian statistics agency IStat show that deaths in Lombardy during March 2020 were 186.5% above the five-year average for that time of year, but in the province around the city of Bergamo they were 567.6% above the average.
That helps explain why the shocking scenes of overcrowding that were seen in some Italian hospitals have not been replicated in London hospitals.
Some parts of Italy were affected to an incredible level while some others were barely touched. It’s odd given the mass exodus from the north that occurred when the partial lockdown happened.
On the contrary, people departed Lombardy with CV-19 and went Lazio and into almost immediate lockdown.
That's why Lazio (i.e. Rome) was barely touched, while Milan and Bergamo was massacred. They locked down when there were few cases, Lombardy locked down when there were lots.
And the DUP won most MPs and the Unionist parties won more votes than Nationalist parties in Northern Ireland
But Unionists only won 8 out of 18 seats. Compare 2015 and 2017 when they won 11 seats.
Irrelevant as the Alliance is non sectarian.
The DUP and UUP also won more votes combined in 2019 than in 2010 or 2015.
Unionist still won only 8 out 18 Westminster seats, the lowest tally since Partition.
Irrelevant as the Conservative and Unionist Party won an overall majority at Westminster, all that matters in Northern Ireland is votes and Unionist parties won 43% of Northern Irish votes to just 38% for Nationalist parties
I'd be very surprised if 18 million people were allowed into the UK in just three months. The UK only gets 40 million tourists per year, and I doubt most of them come for the weather in February.
Heathrow has 80 million passengers per year. Not everyone flying into the country is a tourist.
How many of those stay in the UK vs. transfer?
UK Border Force stats show they processed 137,901,821 total people in 2018.
138 million divided by 4 for a three-month period gives, what, 64 million?
It is a valid news story to point out that the UK official death toll passed that of Italy today, given the attention Italy was getting earlier. In terms of actual comparisons, the UK can be grouped with Belgium, Spain, Italy and France as the European countries with very high death rates. If you want to rank those counties further, France comes fifth and the other countries, it depends on what point you are trying to make.
Is it, when the numbers can't be fairly compared?
I challenge that they can't be fairly compared. It depends on what point you are trying to make. Belgium has the highest per capita death rate, a position it will probably hold going forward. The UK has the highest official death toll now and because it is lagging the others will almost certainly end the initial phase of the epidemic with the highest death toll overall under any definition. Italy has had the greatest localised death rates.
Over the last 7 days, the UK has recorded 2,169 more deaths than Italy. Should something close to that difference be maintained, our official per capita death rate will also exceed Italy's within 2 weeks. Although the methodologies appear very similar, based on deaths in all situations of someone who had tested positive, the fact that the UK has still tested at only half the numbers in Italy will have suppressed our figures.
You can of course argue that the UK was slightly more at risk due to poor health or average population density, or that Italy was more at slightly more risk due to its much more concentrated outbreak (in the densely populated north) and its older population. I think that's splitting hairs. The key overwhelming point in terms of judging which country might be expected to have the higher death rate is this. Italy was in the vanguard of cases in Europe, whereas we were behind the curve and had the opportunity to react in anticipation. Yet we did very little to act or prepare in those vital extra weeks. The UK was afforded a breathing space put to good use in Germany and other countries (eg. Portugal), an opportunity that Italy never had, yet we squandered our chance.
The UK is the 3rd most densely populated nation in Europe after the Netherlands and Belgium, the UK has the 4th highest death rate in Europe so about right, arguably slightly better than expected on that basis
- The list of countries/places added to the Foreign Office's "hotspot" list always seemed to be updated erratically, like they were playing catch-up. I guess that's understandable if you're operating under great uncertainty, but the way the costs are balanced it would have been better to err on the side of proactivity and name regions where the epidemic seemed to be starting to take off, rather than wait for it to have actually done so.
- Returning passengers reported a lack of guidance on whether they should self-isolate. It would be unreasonable to expect everyone to look up on a website whether they should self-isolate or not. Could airline staff have issued instructions? Could health officials have met arriving flights so people could get some more informed advice? It wouldn't have been possible to get every returnee from Italy to stay at an official venue like a hotel/hall of residence to be watched over, but people isolating at home was a reasonable idea that would only have worked if backed up with strong, personal advice.
I do understand why they didn't both doing "checks" at airport - the thermometer spot-checks would have been more security theatre than anything. And I also understand why they didn't stop all flights back then (their modelling had shown it would only delay things by days at best) and why more flights are still arriving now (the reason these don't actually make much difference right now is pretty intuitive, once the disease is already well-established here new imports make relatively little difference, especially while lockdown means new outbreaks will tend to peter out fairly quickly). But if we reach the stage where the disease is largely suppressed, then it becomes more urgent to think what we can do about arriving passengers to stop new outbreaks. Thermometers at airports are not going to cut it while 14 days' isolation at approved venues is going to be very expensive and limiting. I wonder if we are going to see a combination of a shorter isolation period with a requirement to pass negative on several tests taken a few days apart.
It is tough. Who the heck is going to go anywhere if they have to quarantine on arrival for a fortnight then again on return? The airline and travel industry are finished. However. People were flying home from hotspots well into very early lockdown. With no temperature checks and no enforcement. They were literally disrmbarking off flights from N Italy and Spain. Being advised to self-isolate. And then blithely getting on public transport to do so. This was endemic at Manchester Airport. An integrated public transport system to the airport aint all its cracked up to be.
They are until some kind of pattern vaccine similar to that for flu comes into play. That the airliner is a fantastic environment for disease spread is one of the more obvious things that has to be dealt with and its probable that merely wearing a mask wont cut it. Anyone who travels regularly and managed to come off every flight they have ever done without so much as catching a sniffle is doing well. I'm extremely robust but air travel and the appearance of a throat infection a number of days later is not uncommon. I'd guess a lot of people are the same.
And the DUP won most MPs and the Unionist parties won more votes than Nationalist parties in Northern Ireland
But Unionists only won 8 out of 18 seats. Compare 2015 and 2017 when they won 11 seats.
Irrelevant as the Alliance is non sectarian.
The DUP and UUP also won more votes combined in 2019 than in 2010 or 2015.
Unionist still won only 8 out 18 Westminster seats, the lowest tally since Partition.
Irrelevant as the Conservative and Unionist Party won an overall majority at Westminster, all that matters in Northern Ireland is votes and Unionist parties won 43% of Northern Irish votes to just 38% for Nationalist parties
Westminster has FPTP - all that matters is SEATs.
Yes and the Unionist Tory party won a majority of seats at Westminster, Northern Ireland is not a separate country but part of the UK
Figures from the Italian statistics agency IStat show that deaths in Lombardy during March 2020 were 186.5% above the five-year average for that time of year, but in the province around the city of Bergamo they were 567.6% above the average.
That helps explain why the shocking scenes of overcrowding that were seen in some Italian hospitals have not been replicated in London hospitals.
Some parts of Italy were affected to an incredible level while some others were barely touched. It’s odd given the mass exodus from the north that occurred when the partial lockdown happened.
On the contrary, people departed Lombardy with CV-19 and went Lazio and into almost immediate lockdown.
That's why Lazio (i.e. Rome) was barely touched, while Milan and Bergamo was massacred. They locked down when there were few cases, Lombardy locked down when there were lots.
Why was Milan massively affected whereas Rome which is much more of a tourist spot and I’m sure gets lots of visitors from China was not ? I realise that is an impossible question but it just adds to the unpredictable nature of this virus.
Figures from the Italian statistics agency IStat show that deaths in Lombardy during March 2020 were 186.5% above the five-year average for that time of year, but in the province around the city of Bergamo they were 567.6% above the average.
That helps explain why the shocking scenes of overcrowding that were seen in some Italian hospitals have not been replicated in London hospitals.
Some parts of Italy were affected to an incredible level while some others were barely touched. It’s odd given the mass exodus from the north that occurred when the partial lockdown happened.
On the contrary, people departed Lombardy with CV-19 and went Lazio and into almost immediate lockdown.
That's why Lazio (i.e. Rome) was barely touched, while Milan and Bergamo was massacred. They locked down when there were few cases, Lombardy locked down when there were lots.
Likewise, Portugal also saw the situation was out of control in Spain, and the inevitability of it spreading without action, and took the decision to lock down at the same time as Spain did when their case numbers were still relatively low. They heeded the warning by acting in time, the UK didn't.
Figures from the Italian statistics agency IStat show that deaths in Lombardy during March 2020 were 186.5% above the five-year average for that time of year, but in the province around the city of Bergamo they were 567.6% above the average.
That helps explain why the shocking scenes of overcrowding that were seen in some Italian hospitals have not been replicated in London hospitals.
Some parts of Italy were affected to an incredible level while some others were barely touched. It’s odd given the mass exodus from the north that occurred when the partial lockdown happened.
On the contrary, people departed Lombardy with CV-19 and went Lazio and into almost immediate lockdown.
That's why Lazio (i.e. Rome) was barely touched, while Milan and Bergamo was massacred. They locked down when there were few cases, Lombardy locked down when there were lots.
Why was Milan massively affected whereas Rome which is much more of a tourist spot and I’m sure gets lots of visitors from China was not ? I realise that is an impossible question but it just adds to the unpredictable nature of this virus.
Milan and the Northern region is the industrial heart of Italy so i suspect there is a lot of international movement in the course of business as well as still plenty of tourist traffic
It also wasn't a referendum. You delightfully once spent post after post posting details of the Protestant/Catholic breakdown in constituencies as if it was a purely religious function whilst completely ignoring the increasing gap between religion & political party choice. What also you ignored was the way people designated themselves in the 2011 census which would have indicated that self designation of Irishness first doesn't exactly have a strong position.
Figures from the Italian statistics agency IStat show that deaths in Lombardy during March 2020 were 186.5% above the five-year average for that time of year, but in the province around the city of Bergamo they were 567.6% above the average.
That helps explain why the shocking scenes of overcrowding that were seen in some Italian hospitals have not been replicated in London hospitals.
Some parts of Italy were affected to an incredible level while some others were barely touched. It’s odd given the mass exodus from the north that occurred when the partial lockdown happened.
On the contrary, people departed Lombardy with CV-19 and went Lazio and into almost immediate lockdown.
That's why Lazio (i.e. Rome) was barely touched, while Milan and Bergamo was massacred. They locked down when there were few cases, Lombardy locked down when there were lots.
Why was Milan massively affected whereas Rome which is much more of a tourist spot and I’m sure gets lots of visitors from China was not ? I realise that is an impossible question but it just adds to the unpredictable nature of this virus.
Milan and the Northern region is the industrial heart of Italy so i suspect there is a lot of international movement in the course of business as well as still plenty of tourist traffic
I agree but as anyone who has been to Rome will tell you it is chaotic around the main tourist areas at all times, it’s a perfect place for the virus to spread, but it didn’t. In 2019 over a million tourists from China arrived in Rome, so during January and February there would have been tens of thousands of Chinese visitors.
US President Donald Trump has confirmed the White House coronavirus task force will be winding down, with Vice-President Mike Pence suggesting it could be closed within weeks.
It also wasn't a referendum. You delightfully once spent post after post posting details of the Protestant/Catholic breakdown in constituencies as if it was a purely religious function whilst completely ignoring the increasing gap between religion & political party choice. What also you ignored was the way people designated themselves in the 2011 census which would have indicated that self designation of Irishness first doesn't exactly have a strong position.
So that's your answer is it, religion. After having it explained that isn't quite the decider you think it is? Then you state that all that mattered in Westminster elections was seats rather than voting percentages after you initially posted the NI seat count as somehow a counter in numbers (i.e. somehow as an indication that more people voted nationalist than unionist) to my claim that NI is still part of the UK and its status is unlikely to change in a hurry.
You've just made your argument then reversed over it. I know you like your psephology and all but get an argument and be consistent with it at least.
US President Donald Trump has confirmed the White House coronavirus task force will be winding down, with Vice-President Mike Pence suggesting it could be closed within weeks.
It is a valid news story to point out that the UK official death toll passed that of Italy today, given the attention Italy was getting earlier. In terms of actual comparisons, the UK can be grouped with Belgium, Spain, Italy and France as the European countries with very high death rates. If you want to rank those counties further, France comes fifth and the other countries, it depends on what point you are trying to make.
Is it, when the numbers can't be fairly compared?
I challenge that they can't be fairly compared. It depends on what point you are trying to make. Belgium has the highest per capita death rate, a position it will probably hold going forward. The UK has the highest official death toll now and because it is lagging the others will almost certainly end the initial phase of the epidemic with the highest death toll overall under any definition. Italy has had the greatest localised death rates.
Over the last 7 days, the UK has recorded 2,169 more deaths than Italy. Should something close to that difference be maintained, our official per capita death rate will also exceed Italy's within 2 weeks. Although the methodologies appear very similar, based on deaths in all situations of someone who had tested positive, the fact that the UK has still tested at only half the numbers in Italy will have suppressed our figures.
You can of course argue that the UK was slightly more at risk due to poor health or average population density, or that Italy was more at slightly more risk due to its much more concentrated outbreak (in the densely populated north) and its older population. I think that's splitting hairs. The key overwhelming point in terms of judging which country might be expected to have the higher death rate is this. Italy was in the vanguard of cases in Europe, whereas we were behind the curve and had the opportunity to react in anticipation. Yet we did very little to act or prepare in those vital extra weeks. The UK was afforded a breathing space put to good use in Germany and other countries (eg. Portugal), an opportunity that Italy never had, yet we squandered our chance.
The UK is the 3rd most densely populated nation in Europe after the Netherlands and Belgium, the UK has the 4th highest death rate in Europe so about right, arguably slightly better than expected on that basis
Trying to model the relative incidence of coronavirus based on population density alone is the equivalent in terms of predictive statistical modelling of trying to play a round of golf with one club. And despite your spurious partial comparison, in the case of density it's one of the less useful clubs, say your lob wedge. Remember Ted Heath's comments on interest rates?
It also wasn't a referendum. You delightfully once spent post after post posting details of the Protestant/Catholic breakdown in constituencies as if it was a purely religious function whilst completely ignoring the increasing gap between religion & political party choice. What also you ignored was the way people designated themselves in the 2011 census which would have indicated that self designation of Irishness first doesn't exactly have a strong position.
So that's your answer is it, religion. After having it explained that isn't quite the decider you think it is? Then you state that all that mattered in Westminster elections was seats rather than voting percentages after you initially posted the NI seat count as somehow a counter in numbers (i.e. somehow as an indication that more people voted nationalist than unionist) to my claim that NI is still part of the UK and its status is unlikely to change in a hurry.
You've just made your argument then reversed over it. I know you like your psephology and all but get an argument and be consistent with it at least.
Can you tell me another time in Norn Irish history when so few Unionists have been elected to Westminster? Because I'm struggling to think of any. Ta.
US President Donald Trump has confirmed the White House coronavirus task force will be winding down, with Vice-President Mike Pence suggesting it could be closed within weeks.
US President Donald Trump has confirmed the White House coronavirus task force will be winding down, with Vice-President Mike Pence suggesting it could be closed within weeks.
Figures from the Italian statistics agency IStat show that deaths in Lombardy during March 2020 were 186.5% above the five-year average for that time of year, but in the province around the city of Bergamo they were 567.6% above the average.
That helps explain why the shocking scenes of overcrowding that were seen in some Italian hospitals have not been replicated in London hospitals.
Some parts of Italy were affected to an incredible level while some others were barely touched. It’s odd given the mass exodus from the north that occurred when the partial lockdown happened.
On the contrary, people departed Lombardy with CV-19 and went Lazio and into almost immediate lockdown.
That's why Lazio (i.e. Rome) was barely touched, while Milan and Bergamo was massacred. They locked down when there were few cases, Lombardy locked down when there were lots.
Why was Milan massively affected whereas Rome which is much more of a tourist spot and I’m sure gets lots of visitors from China was not ? I realise that is an impossible question but it just adds to the unpredictable nature of this virus.
I don't think Rome gets many Chinese tourists in February.
Milan is the gateway to the Italian alps, and is the business capital of Italy.
Luck plays a massive role here. One "superspreader" event - say a mass or a game of beer pong - can result in 100s of cases.
US President Donald Trump has confirmed the White House coronavirus task force will be winding down, with Vice-President Mike Pence suggesting it could be closed within weeks.
Is this a sign the White House does not want to fight the November election on its response to the pandemic, by leaving it to the individual states?
As ever with Trump it's impossible to tell between the "cunning low politics" theory and the "confused old man surrounded by grifters has absolutely no idea what's going on" theory. However in support of the second one, they apparently have the guy who normally makes up theories about cutting taxes bringing in more tax revenue doing their epidemiological modelling for them:
US President Donald Trump has confirmed the White House coronavirus task force will be winding down, with Vice-President Mike Pence suggesting it could be closed within weeks.
Is this a sign the White House does not want to fight the November election on its response to the pandemic, by leaving it to the individual states?
As ever with Trump it's impossible to tell between the "cunning low politics" theory and the "confused old man surrounded by grifters has absolutely no idea what's going on" theory. However in support of the second one, they apparently have the guy who normally makes up theories about cutting taxes bringing in more tax revenue doing their epidemiological modelling for them:
No masks but they are wearing eye protection so does this mean American boffins now believe the virus is spread primarily by people rubbing the virus into their eyes rather than by inhalation?
(Anecdote: a friend assures me he has not had a cold for years since he has got into the habit of using a tissue to wipe his eyes.)
No masks but they are wearing eye protection so does this mean American boffins now believe the virus is spread primarily by people rubbing the virus into their eyes rather than by inhalation?
(Anecdote: a friend assures me he has not had a cold for years since he has got into the habit of using a tissue to wipe his eyes.)
Ironically, President Trump showers the masks with his own saliva. One likes to imagine that batch was destroyed off-camera.
In a few days it will be the 80th anniversary of Neville Chamberlain being replaced as wartime prime minister after the Norway vote when the government's majority was cut to 81. Can anyone remember what is Boris's majority?
US President Donald Trump has confirmed the White House coronavirus task force will be winding down, with Vice-President Mike Pence suggesting it could be closed within weeks.
Is this a sign the White House does not want to fight the November election on its response to the pandemic, by leaving it to the individual states?
As ever with Trump it's impossible to tell between the "cunning low politics" theory and the "confused old man surrounded by grifters has absolutely no idea what's going on" theory. However in support of the second one, they apparently have the guy who normally makes up theories about cutting taxes bringing in more tax revenue doing their epidemiological modelling for them:
US President Donald Trump has confirmed the White House coronavirus task force will be winding down, with Vice-President Mike Pence suggesting it could be closed within weeks.
Is this a sign the White House does not want to fight the November election on its response to the pandemic, by leaving it to the individual states?
As ever with Trump it's impossible to tell between the "cunning low politics" theory and the "confused old man surrounded by grifters has absolutely no idea what's going on" theory. However in support of the second one, they apparently have the guy who normally makes up theories about cutting taxes bringing in more tax revenue doing their epidemiological modelling for them:
The EU's muli-trillion resue scheme is unconstituional, German court rules. Yeah, so what?
"Later the EU's executive appeared to play down the ruling, by stressing that EU law takes precedence.
"Notwithstanding the analysis of the decision of the German Constitutional Court today, we reaffirm the primacy of EU law," said European Commission spokesman Eric Mamer.
Surely "Blitz Spirit" "Our Finest Hour" and even the 1943 Bengal Famine are all beside the point. The 75th Anniversary of all of those are fading into history. This weekend marks a different event, the 75th anniversary of Victory in Europe.
It was not us standing alone (not that we were in 1940 either with our worldwide empire), VE day came about because of our alliance particularly with the USA and USSR, and of these it was the Red Army under Marshal Zhukov who "got WW2 done".
I shall raise a silent toast to our veterans, but also to our allies veterans on Friday. We are at our best when we coordinate our efforts with international friends and allies. This is a day to remember the end of the evils of Nazism, and the beginning of the post war world. Between VE and VJ day we changed government, with a landslide victory for Attlee. It was the end of Churchillism*, not its apogee.
*Yes, I know, he stayed on as LOTO, and returned briefly for an undistinguished second government in 1951.
I'm one of the few on here who can actually recall VE Day...... just after my 7th birthday and Dr Foxy is absolutely right. The flags that were out were often little triplets; British, American and Russian.
The North Magnetic Pole has been legging it from Canada to Russia. But you - yes, you - have as valid a theory of what is going to happen next as the experts.
""Whether or not it will move back again in the future is anyone's guess," the Leeds scientist told BBC News."
Had to be amused by Nick Clegg's observation: “A misplaced sense of superiority, sustained by delusions of grandeur and a tenacious obsession with the last war, is much harder to shake off. We need to be put back in our place.”
Considering he was a politician with a misplaced sense of superiority and delusions of grandeur who was put back in his place.
The North Magnetic Pole has been legging it from Canada to Russia. But you - yes, you - have as valid a theory of what is going to happen next as the experts.
""Whether or not it will move back again in the future is anyone's guess," the Leeds scientist told BBC News."
The earth's magnetic polarity moves around, and occasionally completely flips.
It's an enormously complex problem because it's about billions of tonnes of only marginally magnetic material that at some point will pass an inflection point.
And because the billions of tonnes are spread across ice and ocean and a dozen countries, you can't have a thousand boreholes measuring what's moving where.
Comments
- WW2 is so well known: anybody of even average intelligence knows its basic outlines
- it was so complex that people can use it to support (attack) more or less any point they want to make (oppose)
- it defined so much of the modern world, and especially Europe.
So people will keep dragging WW2 into everything, at least until there is an even more destructive and all-emcompassing war. Which, on the whole, I would oppose.
https://www.private-eye.co.uk/pictures/special_reports/not-the-foot-and-mouth.pdf
Very interesting how the Imperial modelling team at the time (presumably largely or entirely via Roy Anderson, so this isn't necessarily a direct comment on Ferguson himself) carefully cultivated the media not just to improve the research group's image/standing but to try to "bounce" policy decisions when rivals were suggesting the evidence favoured alternative approaches.
(The eagle-eyed may note Christl Donnelly being quoted a lot in pieces about her colleague Ferguson at present! And recall the Oxford epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta for her criticism of the Imperial team's modelling assumptions earlier in the epidemic, a bit - or rather, a heck of a lot - of history there...)
Doesn't detract from the fact Anderson / Ferguson are high-profile figures who have made very important contributions to the field. But ability to play the media is a handy skill to have if you're involved in policy-determining research.
Cos that's how I roll.
“The admission that just four flights from two locations, barely a few hundred individuals – out of literally millions of arrivals – were formally quarantined while the pandemic was already raging in a series of locations beggars belief.
“On what scientific basis were a handful of flights from Wuhan and one from a Tokyo singled out for extreme attention? But not a single flight from Northern Italy, Spain or the US?
“The fact that many of these people then likely arrived and travelled onwards across the UK with little or no adherence to social distancing, and with no checks or protections at the border – barely a whiff of hand sanitiser – is deeply disturbing. Let alone the arrival of 3,000 fans from Madrid [for a football match against Liverpool] as the pandemic picked up speed.
“Yet arrivals continue to this day – with no formal quarantine requirements. It is simply staggering. Who made these decisions? And on what basis?”"
There is an amusing story that Ribbentrop had to have the mail box of the German Foreign Ministry welded shut to avoid receiving yet more declarations of war by 1943.
“One of the things that it looks like very clear is that early in March the UK got many, many different imports of virus from many different places,” he said. Those places were particularly from European countries with outbreaks.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/05/just-273-people-arriving-in-uk-in-run-up-to-lockdown-quarantined
"The government continues to allow arrivals into the UK without screening or enforced quarantine, which the home secretary, Priti Patel, said was based on advice from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage)."
https://twitter.com/SDoughtyMP/status/1257710431029858304
https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1257779413921542145?s=20
But not quarantining before there was any knowledge of the virus might have been a tad over zealous.
The DUP and UUP also won more votes combined in 2019 than in 2010 or 2015.
https://twitter.com/clarkemicah/status/1257814982118518785?s=21
Which other European Country banned flights or quarantined people on flights from other European countries in February ?
https://www.ft.com/content/e32ddbf7-0826-4cf7-9a73-18611eb29c23
- The list of countries/places added to the Foreign Office's "hotspot" list always seemed to be updated erratically, like they were playing catch-up. I guess that's understandable if you're operating under great uncertainty, but the way the costs are balanced it would have been better to err on the side of proactivity and name regions where the epidemic seemed to be starting to take off, rather than wait for it to have actually done so.
- Returning passengers reported a lack of guidance on whether they should self-isolate. It would be unreasonable to expect everyone to look up on a website whether they should self-isolate or not. Could airline staff have issued instructions? Could health officials have met arriving flights so people could get some more informed advice? It wouldn't have been possible to get every returnee from Italy to stay at an official venue like a hotel/hall of residence to be watched over, but people isolating at home was a reasonable idea that would only have worked if backed up with strong, personal advice.
I do understand why they didn't both doing "checks" at airport - the thermometer spot-checks would have been more security theatre than anything. And I also understand why they didn't stop all flights back then (their modelling had shown it would only delay things by days at best) and why more flights are still arriving now (the reason these don't actually make much difference right now is pretty intuitive, once the disease is already well-established here new imports make relatively little difference, especially while lockdown means new outbreaks will tend to peter out fairly quickly). But if we reach the stage where the disease is largely suppressed, then it becomes more urgent to think what we can do about arriving passengers to stop new outbreaks. Thermometers at airports are not going to cut it while 14 days' isolation at approved venues is going to be very expensive and limiting. I wonder if we are going to see a combination of a shorter isolation period with a requirement to pass negative on several tests taken a few days apart.
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1257601318841188352
What you quoted is done partially by apportioning by postcode, one of them is done 100% by voluntary choice of designation. Which one do you think tells you more about where people are?
What you have failed to see is that despite the census having it there to see is that party political choice, as indeed is religion, is only a partial determinant of the view about what people see themselves as as well as where people want to be, part of Britain or part of Ireland. People vote a lot more often here on what is local, ie who represents their 'community' that is not the same as saying they want a United Ireland or the Union with the UK.
We've heard this over simplistic ra ra shit that you churn out today for decades; that its a game of religious outbreeding, which I assume you believe in given your posts in the past. Brexit is just the latest thing that's going turn unionists with a small u into first rate supporters of Irish unity
Nothing and no one beyond the usual suspects (who tried to bomb us out, tried to guilt us out and claimed we'd be out by 2016) has actually suggested Irish unity is near at all, you know why? Because a majority of people are comfortable enough with where they are thanks.
If you understood how the culture here has developed you'd know that.
The airline and travel industry are finished.
However. People were flying home from hotspots well into very early lockdown. With no temperature checks and no enforcement. They were literally disrmbarking off flights from N Italy and Spain. Being advised to self-isolate. And then blithely getting on public transport to do so.
This was endemic at Manchester Airport.
An integrated public transport system to the airport aint all its cracked up to be.
You can of course argue that the UK was slightly more at risk due to poor health or average population density, or that Italy was more at slightly more risk due to its much more concentrated outbreak (in the densely populated north) and its older population. I think that's splitting hairs. The key overwhelming point in terms of judging which country might be expected to have the higher death rate is this. Italy was in the vanguard of cases in Europe, whereas we were behind the curve and had the opportunity to react in anticipation. Yet we did very little to act or prepare in those vital extra weeks. The UK was afforded a breathing space put to good use in Germany and other countries (eg. Portugal), an opportunity that Italy never had, yet we squandered our chance.
That's why Lazio (i.e. Rome) was barely touched, while Milan and Bergamo was massacred. They locked down when there were few cases, Lombardy locked down when there were lots.
https://cain.ulster.ac.uk/images/maps/2001religionwardsni1.jpg
https://cain.ulster.ac.uk/images/maps/2001religionwardsbelfast1.jpg
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52553829
You've just made your argument then reversed over it. I know you like your psephology and all but get an argument and be consistent with it at least.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52188820
https://twitter.com/LRB/status/1257587586790547458
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-52550309
Health minister Nadine Dorries has been promoted, to become a minister of state.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52553237
Like former prime minister Jim Hacker, Ranil Jayawardena is an LSE alumnus.
He's going for the herd immunity solution.
Milan is the gateway to the Italian alps, and is the business capital of Italy.
Luck plays a massive role here. One "superspreader" event - say a mass or a game of beer pong - can result in 100s of cases.
Milan had one (or more). Rome did not.
https://twitter.com/WhiteHouseCEA/status/1257680258364555264
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1257814281330069504
(Anecdote: a friend assures me he has not had a cold for years since he has got into the habit of using a tissue to wipe his eyes.)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b050r433/churchill-1-renegade-and-turncoat
In a few days it will be the 80th anniversary of Neville Chamberlain being replaced as wartime prime minister after the Norway vote when the government's majority was cut to 81. Can anyone remember what is Boris's majority?
Hansard's record of the debate can be found at:
https://api.parliament.uk/historic-hansard/commons/1940/may/07/conduct-of-the-war
Meanwhile...
https://twitter.com/Psythor/status/1257795741004771329
"Later the EU's executive appeared to play down the ruling, by stressing that EU law takes precedence.
"Notwithstanding the analysis of the decision of the German Constitutional Court today, we reaffirm the primacy of EU law," said European Commission spokesman Eric Mamer.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52542993
""Whether or not it will move back again in the future is anyone's guess," the Leeds scientist told BBC News."
/DailyMashScientistMode
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52550973
“A misplaced sense of superiority, sustained by delusions of grandeur and a tenacious obsession with the last war, is much harder to shake off. We need to be put back in our place.”
Considering he was a politician with a misplaced sense of superiority and delusions of grandeur who was put back in his place.
It's an enormously complex problem because it's about billions of tonnes of only marginally magnetic material that at some point will pass an inflection point.
And because the billions of tonnes are spread across ice and ocean and a dozen countries, you can't have a thousand boreholes measuring what's moving where.