Oh dear professor Ferguson. Tbh, I think his original model is one of the major reasons for our poor strategy during the crisis so it's no great loss.
I read today that under the Ferguson model Sweden should have 40,000 deaths.
They have under 3,000
Just a shame he was right about the UK death toll though.
?? Look at his track record. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
Sorry but that doesn't answer the point - the one you are so desperate to avoid.
He predicted that with lockdown we would have around 20,000. In fact he was wrong because he failed to take into account the incompetence of the Government in enforcing a workable lockdown and protecting our most vulnerable. We are now at at least 30,000 and counting.
Week after week the BBC’s mantra has been “all deaths are tragedies” when talking about the virus. Yet tonight they couldn’t wait to pile into misleading statistical comparisons.
They are an utter disgrace.
It's the BBC's fault 30,000 people have died?
Umm, not sure how you took that from my post.
Whose fault is it, then?
Sunil, tlg86 is referring to BBC`s misrepresentation of statistics.
For me there is a lack of appreciation between the difference between statistics and management information. Right now, most of those worldometer figures are the latter. There will be plenty of time for a forensic statistical assessment of how different countries responded to this, and I suspect the UK will not do particularly well. Right now the focus should be on "what are the government doing to get us out of this mess?"
Why do you suspect the UK will not do particularly well. I suspect except for Germany we will have done reasonably when we start comparisons with the actual excess death figures of other EU countries (France, Spain, Italy).
You may have missed this from a couple of days back.
"England's excess death rate among highest in Europe An analysis of official figures from 24 European countries shows that England has had the highest excess death rate and it is not dropping"
"Stephen Powis, National Medical Director of NHS England, told the daily Downing Street press conference that excess deaths is the “key measure” in assessing the impact of Covid-19 but argued it will be “some time” before that comparison can be done between countries. However, figures from EuroMOMO which monitors official data including from all parts of the UK, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, Italy and Switzerland, show that England has had the highest level of excess deaths for the past four weeks. The researchers, who are supported by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO), provide a “z-score” which takes into account factors such as population size and mortality patterns. The higher the z-score, the higher the number of excess deaths and the countries with the biggest peaks are Belgium, Spain, Italy and England. However, England is the only country which recorded a z-score over 40 and it has now been at this level for three weeks."
Stupid people Fat people BAME with vit D problems Etc
England was a plague waiting to happen.
That z-score measures variability in mortality. It means that a nation with a stable average death rate (like the UK) scores very poorly, and one with a highly variable one (France) scores well. It's not a good measure at all. The best analysis is by the FT who are compiling excess death data from national statistical releases. Even those depend on accurate data but it's still the best measure. The reason it looks bad here is because our data is very fast to release, other countries take weeks or months to do it while the ONS run just a couple of weeks behind.
Sure. I still think we will end up in the same rough ballpark as Italy, Spain etc. in terms of deaths per capita
But we were given 2-3 weeks warning. We apparently didn’t use it. That is the crime
I quite agree, and as many of us have been saying this morning, we're about the repeat these mistakes with the app by following our own path instead of doing the obvious.
A Tory government that loses control of the borders is a Tory government that needs to die. This lot has managed it twice over: illegal immigrants and failed quarantine
Labour should destroy them on this
Its an open goal for Starmer and has been for weeks.
But it seems he's another globalist nutjob and so can't see the open goal.
From a few conversations I've had lots of people don't know about the unrestricted air travel and assume that there are medical checks on people flying into this country.
They are amazed, and not in a good way, when I tell them otherwise.
Week after week the BBC’s mantra has been “all deaths are tragedies” when talking about the virus. Yet tonight they couldn’t wait to pile into misleading statistical comparisons.
They are an utter disgrace.
It's the BBC's fault 30,000 people have died?
Umm, not sure how you took that from my post.
Whose fault is it, then?
Sunil, tlg86 is referring to BBC`s misrepresentation of statistics.
For me there is a lack of appreciation between the difference between statistics and management information. Right now, most of those worldometer figures are the latter. There will be plenty of time for a forensic statistical assessment of how different countries responded to this, and I suspect the UK will not do particularly well. Right now the focus should be on "what are the government doing to get us out of this mess?"
Why do you suspect the UK will not do particularly well. I suspect except for Germany we will have done reasonably when we start comparisons with the actual excess death figures of other EU countries (France, Spain, Italy).
You may have missed this from a couple of days back.
"England's excess death rate among highest in Europe An analysis of official figures from 24 European countries shows that England has had the highest excess death rate and it is not dropping"
"Stephen Powis, National Medical Director of NHS England, told the daily Downing Street press conference that excess deaths is the “key measure” in assessing the impact of Covid-19 but argued it will be “some time” before that comparison can be done between countries. However, figures from EuroMOMO which monitors official data including from all parts of the UK, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, Italy and Switzerland, show that England has had the highest level of excess deaths for the past four weeks. The researchers, who are supported by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO), provide a “z-score” which takes into account factors such as population size and mortality patterns. The higher the z-score, the higher the number of excess deaths and the countries with the biggest peaks are Belgium, Spain, Italy and England. However, England is the only country which recorded a z-score over 40 and it has now been at this level for three weeks."
Stupid people Fat people BAME with vit D problems Etc
England was a plague waiting to happen.
That z-score measures variability in mortality. It means that a nation with a stable average death rate (like the UK) scores very poorly, and one with a highly variable one (France) scores well. It's not a good measure at all. The best analysis is by the FT who are compiling excess death data from national statistical releases. Even those depend on accurate data but it's still the best measure. The reason it looks bad here is because our data is very fast to release, other countries take weeks or months to do it while the ONS run just a couple of weeks behind.
Have you any sources for that opinion or are you just asking us to accept the claims of FT journalists over EU and WHO backed researchers?
If you are right though and time lags have distorted the data, it's worth also remembering that the UK is lagging well behind the timeline to recovery of Italy, Spain and France such that the UK is now typically reporting daily deaths in official counts far in excess of theirs going forward. So there are going to be a lot more deaths down the road to add to our figures compared to theirs. A delay in reporting excess deaths elsewhere would serve to bring our timeline into line with theirs, so they the stats would still be comparable. If there's not a delay elsewhere then our excess death stats are comparatively even worse.
Comments
NEW THREAD
He predicted that with lockdown we would have around 20,000. In fact he was wrong because he failed to take into account the incompetence of the Government in enforcing a workable lockdown and protecting our most vulnerable. We are now at at least 30,000 and counting.
But it seems he's another globalist nutjob and so can't see the open goal.
From a few conversations I've had lots of people don't know about the unrestricted air travel and assume that there are medical checks on people flying into this country.
They are amazed, and not in a good way, when I tell them otherwise.
If you are right though and time lags have distorted the data, it's worth also remembering that the UK is lagging well behind the timeline to recovery of Italy, Spain and France such that the UK is now typically reporting daily deaths in official counts far in excess of theirs going forward. So there are going to be a lot more deaths down the road to add to our figures compared to theirs. A delay in reporting excess deaths elsewhere would serve to bring our timeline into line with theirs, so they the stats would still be comparable. If there's not a delay elsewhere then our excess death stats are comparatively even worse.