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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No, don’t look to a non-Trump/Biden winner
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No, don’t look to a non-Trump/Biden winner
Unusual things happen. Fringe scenarios occur and outsiders find ways to win races they aren’t even in. Even so, for both Donald Trump and Joe Biden to be odds against to win the 2020 US presidential election when both are their party’s nominee-elect is pretty extraordinary.
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We won't see anything of the intensive behind the scenes medical checks the Democrats are going to insist upon before the Convention. Ask yourself this: if you were headhunting the post of CEO of a FTSE 100 company, would you appoint Biden, having heard what he has said in the media in recent months? Let's face it, he wouldn't get on the long list.
Well, start with the actuarial tables, add in a little bit for CV-19, and a small smidgen for scandal, and I'd reckon 4-5% at most.
So, yes. Buy Trump and Biden and pat yourself on the back.
"His mind is so far gone, he can't even remember he was so corrupt...."
Plus they don't even put the shirts in collar size order on the stores these days.
Charles Tyrwhitt provide a great service imo, especially if you pick up one of their '4 shirts for' offers which I always do.
On top of population density another factor that looks to be important is "connectivity". How many people travel on the transit systems, how many commuters from outside the city come in, how many flights arrive?
Once you start looking at it like that the most likely cities to be impacted in the West are London, Paris, New York, Chicago, Milan, Madrid.
I find comparisons with the Southern Hemisphere quite strange when we have separate flu vaccines for north and south due to the timing differences of flu season. Even if covid19 itself is completely neutral to climate (which seems unlikely), then more people coughing in the northern hemisphere due to other colds would lead to faster spread than the south anyway. And Southern Hemisphere big cities arent as connected and densely populated as northern hemisphere countries.
Similarly flu and colds in Asia dont tend to show the same seasonality that they do in the West, the article below from 2006 even mentions the 30 degree latitude line as a boundary between the types of flu spread, which was also proposed as the covid19 hotspot back in March.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4007136/
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308
I am convinced geography is at least as important in policy in this whilst obviously accepting policy is in our control so needs more focus. But it is not reasonable to compare cities and countries with vastly different densities, connectivity and climates.
There is a huge market out there for guys 40-70 who want to buy smart, top quality yet slightly edgy clothing. In "wiry", "stout", "stocky" and "barrel-chested" fittings. These are people with money but nowhere obvious to spend it on their clothes.
Since then it’s been pretty grim. Obama in particular was a disappointment, proving a great speech maker but a highly ineffectual executive. GWB was embarrassing and some around him positively malignant. The professional class have been incredibly greedy and trickle down a fantasy. There is a lot of ruin in a nation but America is working hard at it.
No, I have zero confidence in Biden. And more to the point, I'm not sure how many Americans will have much more come November. "He's up against Trump" is no reason to give him the job.
Note that Betfait won't pay out on the nominee or VP markets till the Conventions
There is no reason at all for the Democrats to remove him and if there were an election this week he would win, maybe even win a landslide.
However, a long way to go yet
Many of the same things as us, I would suggest. It needs to start saving, eliminate its trade deficit, improve its education for the majority, find ways to create social mobility again, bring the vampiric classes of financiers and lawyers back under control, invest in infrastructure, reduce inequality, bring alienated communities back into the mainstream. It’s an obvious list. The candidates on offer seem to not even recognise the problem.
I grew up in Tunbridge Wells and met him several times as he was my MP, he was very sharp but not hugely charismatic and although he was in Willliam Hague's Shadow Cabinet he backed Portillo in 2001 and returned to business after he lost and is currently chairman of ITV
Lose the guns.
Stop spending ludicrous sums on the military.
I think it's worth reminding yourself what this President is like, the sorts of people he praises and the actions they take.
In a dispute between armed fascists and anyone who isn't wearing Trump merchandise, Trump supports the fascists. The very good people. If these people protest "election fraud" on voting day in strongly Democrat precincts, how many votes does Biden lose as a result?
These people believe that the Democrats would need to steal the election to defeat Trump. They won't watch it happen. Fascists don't peacefully sit by while their opponents vote against them.
After the fact Republicans will argue that turnout was depressed by fear of the virus, or because Biden was a poor candidate, to minimise the effect of violence preventing people from voting. The election will have been stolen and it will be too late to do anything about it.
Last time they picked a CEO ie Hillary and left electability to one side, they lost
Oh wait. They took it from us. And currently their administration is a reflection of a great many Americans. Just as ours is.
It's not Trump it's the American people and they are entitled to elect whoever they damn well want. Assured, perhaps, that the smug Brits will be there with them. To criticise and make snide observations.
Edit: God bless America.
Pretty much agree with it all. Biden has shown this season that he is underestimated and on occasion written off by the commentators and pundits.
I am however, on a few Hail Mary bets, as David calls them. Haley or Whitmer or Stacey Abrams are big pay days for me.
My most 'bonkers' bet though is Rice at 1000/1
Trump wouldn't do a dreadful thing like that surely?
The financial implications of the French intervention eventually led to Calonne’s famous advice to the French King - ‘Your Majesty, I am afraid there is no money left.’*
Had it been left to the Americans on their own, they might have struggled.
*No that’s not exactly what he said, but it’s a great line. I’ve always thought so ever since Laws Byrned Liam over it.
I went back in against Clinton last night and dropped two big ones against her.
Actually, not just US politics: there was that weird Andrea Leadsom love-in last year during the Tory leadership contest that was never satisfactorily explained either.
Still, at the end of it we are left with Brits and Yanks. Both of whom have agency today.
That doesn’t quite work, but never mind. I will still get my coat.
Have a good morning.
sean thomas knox
@thomasknox
·
4m
So here’s a thing. In late January I became obsessed with Corona after a personal brush. Read everything. By mid Feb I was convinced a pandemic/lockdown was coming our way. So I ordered my first masks. See below. If I could see this coming in mid-Feb, why couldn’t the government?
America is already there but hasn't realised it yet. The next 10-20 years will be a wake-up call as it recongises it needs to work in alliance right across the West to not just leverage its influence and power effectively, but also to defend its values and way of life at home.
I'm expecting the development of new forums and institutions and possibly NATO changing into GTO.
They both fed off each other. For a Trump, you need a Hillary. Without a Hillary, you don't need a Trump.
Someone needs to drain the poison out of politics for it to return to sanity.
Biden has made a good start by simply not insulting a quarter of the US electorate as deplorable.
PS: With all this TV re-run of snooker classics going on, I wonder when they will show the best of all - the 2006 Crucible final between Dotty and Ebo? Talk about an antidote to lockdown if that is aired soup to nuts.
But they don't last. Build-quality is poor. My Tyrwhitt shirts and suits have never lasted longer than 2 years.
TM Lewin? M&S? Gieves & Hawkes? Turnbull & Asser?
They go the full mile, and some.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
O/T: pedant's corner - the headline makes it appear that Palin's neighbour set fire to Palin's house before rescuing him in remorse:
https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2020/may/02/sir-michael-palin-tells-how-elderly-neighbour-rescued-him-after-setting-house-ablaze
Obviously, self-governance would have continued to be a thing (as it was to an extent even at the point of revolution, and in all other settler colonies) so I'm inclined to think it'd have been a much bigger and richer Canada.
However, what would its size and boundaries have been? How would it have developed?
No-one knows.
The US remains totally dominant globally. China may or may not decide to wake up from a hegemonic perspective (imo probably not; it's more interested in protecting its own integrity, including Taiwan, the Spratlys, rather than making new claims) although it will of course continue to grow economically.
Sound familiar?
I don't think the US is quite as dominant as we suppose (it's not the 1990s anymore) and the events of the Trump presidency of what happens when America tries to do it solely alone have shown the consequences of that.
The shirts are handmade in England, with a pricetag to prove it.
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/coronavirus/bombshell-dossier-lays-out-case-against-chinese-bat-virus-program/news-story/55add857058731c9c71c0e96ad17da60
They are already preparing for a post-NATO, isolated future with JADC2 which integrates every sensor, weapon and platform from the Army, USAF and USN into one multi-domain network and there is NO connectivity into it for coalition 'partners'. What comes after NATO for the US won't be another treaty organisation. They will do strong but separate bilateral defence agreements with subservient partner nations (eg Canada and Australia) with whom they share strategic interests.
The tailor-made guy still has my number and at the height of the pandemic WhatsApped me "Now is a great time to think about a new suit!" Some people never give up.
He is the best candidate the Democrats could have picked to beat Trump
For those interested, his November picture is circa 95 when he would have been in his mid-fifties. A fallow period, truth be told, with no big hits. Looks OK though. He is reclining against a fence in jeans, checked shirt, cowboy boots. Not smiling. It's a rather moody shot.
However - and please note this for the record - there still is a way in that event to judge who is calling this better. Because I predict not just a Trump loss but also that it will NOT be close.
That is another reason why I am betting on the winning party market not next president.
Whilst it would of course have been wonderful for the Government to have shown equivalent foresight and proactivity, I'm in no way surprised or even disappointed that they didn't. There's a reason why 'moving at the speed of government' exists as an expression and not in a complimentary sense. It's one of the philosophical reasons why I'm a conservative and a libertarian - the individual will in many cases be able to act more quickly, flexibly, and intelligently in their own interests that any government could.
Plus governments quite rightly have to look at the big picture, balancing individual outcomes versus those of the country as a whole. An epidemiologist or an economist who thinks in terms of the survival of an individual as opposed to that of thousands or millions is simply not doing their job properly - they're like the planners in Dr. Strangelove who consult books called 'Global Casualties in Megadeaths'.
TL;DR: Governments generally do no fail to adequately care for the individual because they are evil or incompetent (though they may be both): they fail to do so _because they are governments_.
China on top will make America look like a cuddly teddy bear.
Once the isolationist, pro-Russia, anti-China Trump is replaced, even four years from now, it would not be surprising if America reverts back.