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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » COVID-19: With Boris back some of this afternoon’s development

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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,261
    TGOHF666 said:

    alterego said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    Could backfire on Scots Nationalists' more looney wing?
    This won't really pass will it?
    They had it in place for football grounds for a couple of years until it got repealed.

    Bunch of nanny state authoritarians in charge.

    Up to our knees in Fenian blood
    Up to our knees in LGBGT blood
    Up to our knees in refugees' blood
    Up to our knees in women's blood
    etc

    You lot could test any legislation with variations on your 'folk' song which seems to get sung as regularly as ever, or it did when you were on your way to losing the league yet again.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,982
    edited April 2020
    It looks like global deaths from the virus have dropped by about 14% today compared to yesterday, (which hopefully is a like-for-like comparison for once).

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    If Johnson's medical condition remains unchanged at the end of July, will serious speculation arise as to his ability to continue?

    Uh? He is back at work and led the press conference today
    But many have said he appeared unfit and breathless. If he failed to recover further, concerns might well mount.
    Its his first week back and his child was born yesterday. Jeez like anyone else would be any different in the circumstances?
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,001
    isam said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    If Johnson's medical condition remains unchanged at the end of July, will serious speculation arise as to his ability to continue?

    Uh? He is back at work and led the press conference today
    But many have said he appeared unfit and breathless. If he failed to recover further, concerns might well mount.
    If he hasn’t got any better by the end of July, the virus is even worse than we think now!

    People banging on about his health, or lack of it, are just trying to find a route to a general election, because they reckon Starmer could beat AN Other Tory probably
    I'm no fan of his. But he's been in intensive care and had a child in the past month. And he is an overweight bloke in his mid 50s.
    Frankly I'd be asking questions if he looked well.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    If Johnson's medical condition remains unchanged at the end of July, will serious speculation arise as to his ability to continue?

    Uh? He is back at work and led the press conference today
    But many have said he appeared unfit and breathless. If he failed to recover further, concerns might well mount.
    He looked fine to me, a few leftwingers may think differently but as the Tories have a majority of 80 and there are 4 years of the parliament left what they think is irrelevant
    I did not see it but Tories on here were making such comments.After all, it is now five weeks since he tested positive for the virus.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,161
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    If Johnson's medical condition remains unchanged at the end of July, will serious speculation arise as to his ability to continue?

    Uh? He is back at work and led the press conference today
    But many have said he appeared unfit and breathless. If he failed to recover further, concerns might well mount.
    He looked fine to me, a few leftwingers may think differently but as the Tories have a majority of 80 and there are 4 years of the parliament left what they think is irrelevant
    I did not see it but Tories on here were making such comments.After all, it is now five weeks since he tested positive for the virus.
    I did not see any and I certainly wasn't but regardless lefties ain't getting any less than another 4 years of Tory rule whether under PM Boris or PM Sunak with a Tory majority of 80
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    If Johnson's medical condition remains unchanged at the end of July, will serious speculation arise as to his ability to continue?

    Uh? He is back at work and led the press conference today
    But many have said he appeared unfit and breathless. If he failed to recover further, concerns might well mount.
    He looked fine to me, a few leftwingers may think differently but as the Tories have a majority of 80 and there are 4 years of the parliament left what they think is irrelevant
    I did not see it but Tories on here were making such comments.After all, it is now five weeks since he tested positive for the virus.
    I did not see any and I certainly wasn't but regardless lefties ain't getting any less than another 4 years of Tory rule whether under PM Boris or PM Sunak with a Tory majority of 80
    That is not my point or concern at all. There is good precedent for a new PM not being obliged to call an election - Macmillan in January 1957 and Callaghan in April 1976 come to mind.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,982
    Maybe primary schools will open on either Monday 11th or 18th.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    If Johnson's medical condition remains unchanged at the end of July, will serious speculation arise as to his ability to continue?

    Uh? He is back at work and led the press conference today
    But many have said he appeared unfit and breathless. If he failed to recover further, concerns might well mount.
    They may have been overstating it slightly.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    ABZ said:

    MaxPB said:

    So I think it's time for the government to consider the unpalatable idea of holing people up in hotels for 14 days if they test positive. We need to start separating people with the virus from the rest of the public until they are definitely no longer infectious. Leaving them to their own devices isn't working.

    If we have the capability to test 100k people per day we will be catching a significant proportion of the people who have the virus everyday, enough to lower the R to well below 1 in just a few days.

    It's not going to be a cheap way of doing it but it will work.

    I'd guess we'll need somewhere between 150k and 200k hotel rooms and other temporary accommodation at peak. Is that feasible? I don't know but we definitely need to try, what we're doing at the moment isn't working and will not only result in another 20,000 people dying it will prevent the reopening of the economy for another 3 months.

    Seems high. 6000 found positive today is 84k people. Positive numbers should be going down too.
    It should keep coming down - look at other countries (e.g., Austria / Switzerland) they have seen very substantial reductions since their peak without resorting to separating families. It seems quite possible we will be able to achieve the same here.

    The more fundamental problem in the UK is that we have (historically) not performed enough tests so previous numbers have been artificially deflated - it seems almost certain that if we could have tested 80000 people at the peak we would have had tens of thousands of positives (plus of course have reduced ongoing infections substantially). Hence, it will take us longer to get the rate down, but there's every reason to hope that this will happen reasonably soon.
    Why wait and hope, it's time for action. I'm sure if you asked the public the question they would be up for it. 14-21 days of full separation of people who have the virus followed by an almost full opening up of the economy or 6 more weeks of the current situation plus a slow opening up of the economy. That's the choice right now and I think I'd rather go down the drastic action route, even if it's expensive.
    What makes you think that transmission is happening because of people who've tested positive already?
    If you have 6k people who have tested positive and an R of 0.7, those 6k will infect another 4k people, my proposal means those 4k people won't be infected. Then follow that up for 14 days worth of taking people into hotel rooms and you're suddenly reducing the R to 0.2 from 0.7, it may be artificial but it will work. It's how China did it and, IMO, they had a much more serious outbreak in Hubei than we have had. I have no doubt their test and separate policy was a huge factor in getting the R from 3 to 0.1 in a very short period of time.

    I'd like for the government to level with the public and basically ask which route we'd like to take, the severe test and separate route followed by track and trace with a Korean style full opening of the economy, or another 6 weeks of slowly opening things back up. I think the British people are made of much sterner stuff than our scientists give us credit for and will live with test and separate.
    You're making a flawed assumption that (a) the R rate for people who have tested positive is the same as the R rate for the general population who have not tested positive and (b) the people who have tested positive won't have already infected anyone prior to testing positive and (c) that everyone who is positive is tested and tests positive.

    If any of those assumptions are wrong (and I think they all are) a premature lifting of lockdown would raise R by more than separation would lower it.
    I think the best analogy (and I know how we love an analogy here) is of a fire. This virus is a fire that doubles in size basically every day if nothing is done. Our measures have allowed us to remove enough of its new fuel source and oxygen so it has started to burn itself out. What China did and what I think we should do is literally looking at the fire, getting parts of it that are still on fire and putting it somewhere that only has inert gases so it stops burning. What I'm proposing is reducing the number of infected people in the general population, do that for two or three weeks and the problem solved itself.
    If you reduce the number of infected people in the general population yes, but I don't think you do that with separation, you do that with testing.

    If people know they are infected then what do you think they're doing currently - going out to Asda and living normally? You can be separated from the general population within your own home from the moment you know you are positive for the virus.

    The virus isn't spreading because people know they have the virus and are still going out. The virus is spreading because of the people who don't know that they have the virus and they're the ones we need to be tracing - your solution does nothing to identify them.
    The problem with that is that a lot of people don't live alone, and if they do then they still need to get food etc, so you still end up with a lot of transmission from people who intended to have self-isolated, especially within families.

    So you need both test and isolate.

    Weirdly a lot of countries seem to be keen to only take half of that, eg Britain apparently wants to test but not isolate, whereas Japan has booked up a bunch of hotels to isolate people in, but they're hardly doing any testing so they don't know who to put in them.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    justin124 said:

    If Johnson's medical condition remains unchanged at the end of July, will serious speculation arise as to his ability to continue?

    No.
This discussion has been closed.