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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » COVID-19: With Boris back some of this afternoon’s development

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  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    Evening all. I am now officially retired.

    I'm quite refreshed just now. Virtual drinks aren't all that virtual.

    Congratulations! How are you going to handle the boredom?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    Foxy said:

    Anecdote time:

    It would appear that people who stockpiled ludicrous quantities of bog roll are now contacting the supplier asking if they can return it and get a refund.

    Give them some laxatives, they'll be grateful for their stockpile then...
    That's a crap suggestion if you don't mind me saying so.
    A bog standard refund is all he wants.
    He'll be flush if he gets a refund for all of those.
    A crapper investment decision it is hard to imagine.
    It was always destined to down the pan tbf.
    It is just a paper loss.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Ave_it said:

    I think we do need to see some easing next Thur 7 May.

    COVID-19 is now largely in hospitals and care homes.

    Some non-essential shops to reopen with social distancing from 11 May together with a small relaxation of restrictions on people meeting at their houses - family groups in particular.

    Pretty sure we will see something thrown to the public in time for 8th May VE day celebrations.

    Classic Boris.
    Agreed - Boris could do the 'small relaxation of restrictions on people meeting at their houses' for 8 May bank holiday

    In practice it might take small non-essential shops 2 to 3 weeks to be ready to open given social distance restrictions after a clearance given on 7 May.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    Evening all. I am now officially retired.

    I'm quite refreshed just now. Virtual drinks aren't all that virtual.

    Wow! Congratulations (I'm hoping it was planned and not an unwelcome side effect of the current crisis)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    isam said:

    Ok, scrub Nigel banging his pan, Gangs of London is the worst thing I'll see today. Knew I shouldn't have persisted, ahm oot.

    How many episodes did you give it?
    1.25.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    NYT:

    "the [US] S&P 500 had its best month since January 1987"

    WTF?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    Ok, scrub Nigel banging his pan, Gangs of London is the worst thing I'll see today. Knew I shouldn't have persisted, ahm oot.

    I wasted part of an evening watching that the other day. What a pile of shit. The premise could have been good, but the ridiculous unnecessary, often comical, violence, made Westworld Season 3 look like a masterpiece.
    I think the only time I've been more disappointed than Westworld Season 3 was when I found out Santa Claus wasn't real. And even then, it was a close run thing.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878

    Foxy said:

    Anecdote time:

    It would appear that people who stockpiled ludicrous quantities of bog roll are now contacting the supplier asking if they can return it and get a refund.

    Give them some laxatives, they'll be grateful for their stockpile then...
    That's a crap suggestion if you don't mind me saying so.
    A bog standard refund is all he wants.
    He'll be flush if he gets a refund for all of those.
    A crapper investment decision it is hard to imagine.
    Cistern Addict
    I never can get enough
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    edited April 2020

    franklyn said:

    With the future of air travel in doubt for many years to come, might now be a time to reconsider the need for the third runway at Heathrow, and also the economic case for HS2. The money would be much better spent on wider access to high speed broadband.

    Third runway is finished. Dead. Gone. A parrot.
    I wouldn't be so sure. 6 weeks is too short a time after which to be making all these grand predictions IMO.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Foxy said:

    Ave_it said:

    I think we do need to see some easing next Thur 7 May.

    COVID-19 is now largely in hospitals and care homes.

    Some non-essential shops to reopen with social distancing from 11 May together with a small relaxation of restrictions on people meeting at their houses - family groups in particular.

    Schools to go back after Spring half term, shops to reopen with social distancing. Pubs, and restaurants etc to reopen July.
    Good call I'll take it!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    Evening all. I am now officially retired.

    I'm quite refreshed just now. Virtual drinks aren't all that virtual.

    Wow! Congratulations (I'm hoping it was planned and not an unwelcome side effect of the current crisis)


    Many congrats Mr Meeks.

    (I believe he said it was planned.)
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 732

    NYT:

    "the [US] S&P 500 had its best month since January 1987"

    WTF?

    Rebound after very deep fall.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729

    Evening all. I am now officially retired.

    I'm quite refreshed just now. Virtual drinks aren't all that virtual.

    Wow! Congratulations (I'm hoping it was planned and not an unwelcome side effect of the current crisis)
    +1 well done. Be happy!!! Use your time wisely. It goes by at breakneck speed.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Evening all. I am now officially retired.

    I'm quite refreshed just now. Virtual drinks aren't all that virtual.

    Well done Alastair. I did likewise this time last year although was able to have real in person leaving drinks!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,708
    Trump apparently says he's seen evidence that the virus originated in the Wuhan Institute of Virology lab.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    Foxy said:

    Anecdote time:

    It would appear that people who stockpiled ludicrous quantities of bog roll are now contacting the supplier asking if they can return it and get a refund.

    Give them some laxatives, they'll be grateful for their stockpile then...
    That's a crap suggestion if you don't mind me saying so.
    A bog standard refund is all he wants.
    He'll be flush if he gets a refund for all of those.
    A crapper investment decision it is hard to imagine.
    It was always destined to down the pan tbf.
    We could have warned him it was a sheet idea. But nobody was privy to his investment scheme.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    MaxPB said:

    Evening all. I am now officially retired.

    I'm quite refreshed just now. Virtual drinks aren't all that virtual.

    Congratulations! How are you going to handle the boredom?
    More PB headers on Brexit...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    Foxy said:

    Anecdote time:

    It would appear that people who stockpiled ludicrous quantities of bog roll are now contacting the supplier asking if they can return it and get a refund.

    Give them some laxatives, they'll be grateful for their stockpile then...
    That's a crap suggestion if you don't mind me saying so.
    A bog standard refund is all he wants.
    He'll be flush if he gets a refund for all of those.
    A crapper investment decision it is hard to imagine.
    It was always destined to down the pan tbf.
    We could have warned him it was a sheet idea. But nobody was privy to his investment scheme.
    Sometimes you just have to roll with it.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    NYT:

    "the [US] S&P 500 had its best month since January 1987"

    WTF?

    Had a pretty bad month the month before that...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    OMG.

    An actual (BBC) news item that is not the plague!!!!!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413
    Foxy said:

    Another pic from the land of stable geniuses.

    https://twitter.com/SenPolehanki/status/1255899318210314241?s=20

    In any other country, men with guns invading parliament demanding their policy is followed would be described as a coup in progress.
    Any other country it might be described as low level Civil War.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    Trump apparently says he's seen evidence that the virus originated in the Wuhan Institute of Virology lab.

    Well it wasn't from his Director of National Intelligence

    https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status/1255970813590876160?s=20
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Just seen new Government/NHS advert with a 'keep going' (with the lockdown) message.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Ave_it said:

    Just seen new Government/NHS advert with a 'keep going' (with the lockdown) message.

    Keep Calm and Carry On ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Anecdote time:

    It would appear that people who stockpiled ludicrous quantities of bog roll are now contacting the supplier asking if they can return it and get a refund.

    Give them some laxatives, they'll be grateful for their stockpile then...
    That's a crap suggestion if you don't mind me saying so.
    A bog standard refund is all he wants.
    He'll be flush if he gets a refund for all of those.
    A crapper investment decision it is hard to imagine.
    It was always destined to down the pan tbf.
    We could have warned him it was a sheet idea. But nobody was privy to his investment scheme.
    Sometimes you just have to roll with it.
    Put on some Lou Rawls.....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Is there not a billionaire in Britain who will match the £30m given to Captain Tom?

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    edited April 2020

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Anecdote time:

    It would appear that people who stockpiled ludicrous quantities of bog roll are now contacting the supplier asking if they can return it and get a refund.

    Give them some laxatives, they'll be grateful for their stockpile then...
    That's a crap suggestion if you don't mind me saying so.
    A bog standard refund is all he wants.
    He'll be flush if he gets a refund for all of those.
    A crapper investment decision it is hard to imagine.
    It was always destined to down the pan tbf.
    We could have warned him it was a sheet idea. But nobody was privy to his investment scheme.
    Sometimes you just have to roll with it.
    Put on some Lou Rawls.....
    Maybe Fleetwood Mac's "the Chain".....

    And wait until it's cistern to make the next pun.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    edited April 2020
    deleted :lol:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Andy_JS said:

    franklyn said:

    With the future of air travel in doubt for many years to come, might now be a time to reconsider the need for the third runway at Heathrow, and also the economic case for HS2. The money would be much better spent on wider access to high speed broadband.

    Third runway is finished. Dead. Gone. A parrot.
    I wouldn't be so sure. 6 weeks is too short a time after which to be making all these grand predictions IMO.
    In general I think that's true. But as far as the 3rd runway is concerned, forget it - it's not happening.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Ave_it said:

    Just seen new Government/NHS advert with a 'keep going' (with the lockdown) message.

    Keep Calm and Carry On ?
    Basically yes. We need to see something more positive from Boris next week
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,052

    Andy_JS said:

    franklyn said:

    With the future of air travel in doubt for many years to come, might now be a time to reconsider the need for the third runway at Heathrow, and also the economic case for HS2. The money would be much better spent on wider access to high speed broadband.

    Third runway is finished. Dead. Gone. A parrot.
    I wouldn't be so sure. 6 weeks is too short a time after which to be making all these grand predictions IMO.
    In general I think that's true. But as far as the 3rd runway is concerned, forget it - it's not happening.
    I agree. We might get R2 at Gatwick in a decade though.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    Andy_JS said:

    franklyn said:

    With the future of air travel in doubt for many years to come, might now be a time to reconsider the need for the third runway at Heathrow, and also the economic case for HS2. The money would be much better spent on wider access to high speed broadband.

    Third runway is finished. Dead. Gone. A parrot.
    I wouldn't be so sure. 6 weeks is too short a time after which to be making all these grand predictions IMO.
    In general I think that's true. But as far as the 3rd runway is concerned, forget it - it's not happening.
    City Airport should be more than enough for London's air travel needs. Dig up Heathrow's two runways - and make a city for the 22nd Century there.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    franklyn said:

    With the future of air travel in doubt for many years to come, might now be a time to reconsider the need for the third runway at Heathrow, and also the economic case for HS2. The money would be much better spent on wider access to high speed broadband.

    Third runway is finished. Dead. Gone. A parrot.
    I wouldn't be so sure. 6 weeks is too short a time after which to be making all these grand predictions IMO.
    In general I think that's true. But as far as the 3rd runway is concerned, forget it - it's not happening.
    I agree. We might get R2 at Gatwick in a decade though.
    Or maybe not...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52489013?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cmmq89l227wt/british-airways&link_location=live-reporting-story
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    franklyn said:

    With the future of air travel in doubt for many years to come, might now be a time to reconsider the need for the third runway at Heathrow, and also the economic case for HS2. The money would be much better spent on wider access to high speed broadband.

    Third runway is finished. Dead. Gone. A parrot.
    I wouldn't be so sure. 6 weeks is too short a time after which to be making all these grand predictions IMO.
    In general I think that's true. But as far as the 3rd runway is concerned, forget it - it's not happening.
    I agree. We might get R2 at Gatwick in a decade though.
    I seriously doubt it. BA have basically just said they don't know when they will resume Gatwick services.
  • Evening all. I am now officially retired.

    I'm quite refreshed just now. Virtual drinks aren't all that virtual.

    Congratulations. Hope you have many interesting and active years ahead doing whatever you want to do
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    Andy_JS said:

    franklyn said:

    With the future of air travel in doubt for many years to come, might now be a time to reconsider the need for the third runway at Heathrow, and also the economic case for HS2. The money would be much better spent on wider access to high speed broadband.

    Third runway is finished. Dead. Gone. A parrot.
    I wouldn't be so sure. 6 weeks is too short a time after which to be making all these grand predictions IMO.
    In general I think that's true. But as far as the 3rd runway is concerned, forget it - it's not happening.
    City Airport should be more than enough for London's air travel needs. Dig up Heathrow's two runways - and make a city for the 22nd Century there.
    Heathrow serves the whole south of England, not just London.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    Is there not a billionaire in Britain who will match the £30m given to Captain Tom?

    Our billionaires are too busy becoming millionaires.....
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Andy_JS said:

    franklyn said:

    With the future of air travel in doubt for many years to come, might now be a time to reconsider the need for the third runway at Heathrow, and also the economic case for HS2. The money would be much better spent on wider access to high speed broadband.

    Third runway is finished. Dead. Gone. A parrot.
    I wouldn't be so sure. 6 weeks is too short a time after which to be making all these grand predictions IMO.
    In general I think that's true. But as far as the 3rd runway is concerned, forget it - it's not happening.
    Heathrow won’t need two runways in the future TBH. The very few flights, mostly cargo, that will be needed/allowed in and out of London will probably be able to be handled at Gatwick or similar. Heathrow could be redeveloped for housing.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Andy_JS said:

    franklyn said:

    With the future of air travel in doubt for many years to come, might now be a time to reconsider the need for the third runway at Heathrow, and also the economic case for HS2. The money would be much better spent on wider access to high speed broadband.

    Third runway is finished. Dead. Gone. A parrot.
    I wouldn't be so sure. 6 weeks is too short a time after which to be making all these grand predictions IMO.
    In general I think that's true. But as far as the 3rd runway is concerned, forget it - it's not happening.
    City Airport should be more than enough for London's air travel needs. Dig up Heathrow's two runways - and make a city for the 22nd Century there.
    Heathrow serves the whole south of England, not just London.
    There won’t be a need for more than one airstrip in the whole of England.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609


    Heathrow serves the whole south of England, not just London.

    The whole south of England is going nowhere any time soon.

    In fact, just open the garden centres and life will be just ginger peachy and ever so ever so nice....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Genuinely feels to me like Trump is on the edge of the slippery slope before a descent into chaos.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/30/trump-brad-parscale-campaign-manager

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1255971874921644034?s=20
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695


    Heathrow serves the whole south of England, not just London.

    The whole south of England is going nowhere any time soon.

    In fact, just open the garden centres and life will be just ginger peachy and ever so ever so nice....
    Yes, I don't disagree. It just wanted to point out that Heathrow serves much mor than London.
  • glw said:

    Times reporting EPL will vote on what to do about the footy season next Thursday. One of the (crazy) ideas is playing matches at secret neutral locations....that isn't going to work is it. Somebody will leak be leaking them.

    How the hell would that work? There are only so many possible locations with the right facilities for a top flight match, even without leaks it would be quite obvious that a match is about to be held.
    Maybe the secret neutral location is Moonbase Alpha.
    Reminds me of that old Cilla Black show where she would turn up out off the blue at a random viewers' house. Funnily enough, it was always in the same town where the OB cameras had been at the horse racing that afternoon.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,052
    eadric said:

    I'm back in London, temporarily (work, IanB, work)

    It's a weird atmos. Much more subdued than I expected. The clapping definitely felt a bit half hearted.

    But also, for all its many flaws, what a beautiful city it is: the late April sunshine flashing off Georgian sash windows, the rain all silver and glistening on the cobbles in the mews.

    How beautiful it must have been before the modern architects got to work on it in the 50s.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    Is there not a billionaire in Britain who will match the £30m given to Captain Tom?

    Our billionaires are too busy becoming millionaires.....
    The best way to get rich quick these days is to start very rich.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,052
    MaxPB said:

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    franklyn said:

    With the future of air travel in doubt for many years to come, might now be a time to reconsider the need for the third runway at Heathrow, and also the economic case for HS2. The money would be much better spent on wider access to high speed broadband.

    Third runway is finished. Dead. Gone. A parrot.
    I wouldn't be so sure. 6 weeks is too short a time after which to be making all these grand predictions IMO.
    In general I think that's true. But as far as the 3rd runway is concerned, forget it - it's not happening.
    I agree. We might get R2 at Gatwick in a decade though.
    I seriously doubt it. BA have basically just said they don't know when they will resume Gatwick services.
    A runway is not a project that you decide on looking at demand over the next 50 years, not because of one press statement.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Evening all. I am now officially retired.

    I'm quite refreshed just now. Virtual drinks aren't all that virtual.

    Congrats!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218

    Foxy said:

    Another pic from the land of stable geniuses.

    https://twitter.com/SenPolehanki/status/1255899318210314241?s=20

    In any other country, men with guns invading parliament demanding their policy is followed would be described as a coup in progress.
    If Trump loses in November, I suspect we will see a good deal of trouble along these lines. Or maybe worse.
    Imagine the Crimea playbook in a few red states. They could declare independence and pledge allegiance to the Trump Republic.
    I think a lot of the US would be overjoyed to see some of those states secede.

    Of the 13 most "federally dependent" states, only one voted for Clinton (New Mexico) last time around:

    https://wallethub.com/edu/states-most-least-dependent-on-the-federal-government/2700/
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    franklyn said:

    With the future of air travel in doubt for many years to come, might now be a time to reconsider the need for the third runway at Heathrow, and also the economic case for HS2. The money would be much better spent on wider access to high speed broadband.

    Third runway is finished. Dead. Gone. A parrot.
    I wouldn't be so sure. 6 weeks is too short a time after which to be making all these grand predictions IMO.
    In general I think that's true. But as far as the 3rd runway is concerned, forget it - it's not happening.
    I agree. We might get R2 at Gatwick in a decade though.
    I seriously doubt it. BA have basically just said they don't know when they will resume Gatwick services.
    A runway is not a project that you decide on looking at demand over the next 50 years, not because of one press statement.
    Optimistically there will be only a handful of flights coming and going from the London area, England as a whole, for generations. Covid-19 means we have massive overcapacity for our lifetimes at least.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    I hope you were all watching Chris Witty's Gresham College lecture, released today, as tipped here by @Cyclefree. Really very good indeed - superbly clear, and covering all the key aspects of Covid-19 and policy responses to it from an epidemiological point of view. He even covered the point I've asked about a couple of times about prophylactic use of drugs. I can't say there was anything much new in it for those of us who have been following things closely, but what was impressive was the clarity and comprehensiveness of his presentation. It should be compulsory viewing for all those journalists and politicians who keep asking stupid questions or whingeing about policy choices:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3BdPKpWbxTg
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218

    Trump apparently says he's seen evidence that the virus originated in the Wuhan Institute of Virology lab.

    Well, it must be true then.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    DougSeal said:

    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    franklyn said:

    With the future of air travel in doubt for many years to come, might now be a time to reconsider the need for the third runway at Heathrow, and also the economic case for HS2. The money would be much better spent on wider access to high speed broadband.

    Third runway is finished. Dead. Gone. A parrot.
    I wouldn't be so sure. 6 weeks is too short a time after which to be making all these grand predictions IMO.
    In general I think that's true. But as far as the 3rd runway is concerned, forget it - it's not happening.
    I agree. We might get R2 at Gatwick in a decade though.
    I seriously doubt it. BA have basically just said they don't know when they will resume Gatwick services.
    A runway is not a project that you decide on looking at demand over the next 50 years, not because of one press statement.
    Optimistically there will be only a handful of flights coming and going from the London area, England as a whole, for generations. Covid-19 means we have massive overcapacity for our lifetimes at least.
    "Optimistically there will be only a handful of flights coming and going from the London area, England as a whole, for generations"

    A handful of flights a day?

    Right now, there are hundreds of flights a day into the London region - admittedly, mostly cargo.

    CV-19 will be a much smaller deal 18 months from now, either via a vaccine, or via us all having had it, or via better treatment, or by some combination of these.

    Will this mean we're all back to normal? Nope. I'm sure the number of LA to London flights will be down 50% or so from 2019 levels. But that's not the same as...

    "Optimistically there will be only a handful of flights coming and going from the London area, England as a whole, for generations"

    Unless you think the word "optimistically" means something different to me.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    I'm lost.

    Didn't Nigel want to move away from the NHS towards widespread private health insurance?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Fishing said:

    eadric said:

    I'm back in London, temporarily (work, IanB, work)

    It's a weird atmos. Much more subdued than I expected. The clapping definitely felt a bit half hearted.

    But also, for all its many flaws, what a beautiful city it is: the late April sunshine flashing off Georgian sash windows, the rain all silver and glistening on the cobbles in the mews.

    How beautiful it must have been before the modern architects got to work on it in the 50s.
    Herman Goerings urban redevelopment plan didn't help much either.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,335
    edited April 2020
    Re: Lets call them militias hanging about in the US. They may enjoy their day in the Sun because the Feds still have the biggest boots and will do some serious return damage if things start getting problematic.

    Playing at soldiers when there is no sense of proper retaliation like being shot, flung in jail for 20 years or otherwise just have your life made miserable is not hard. When those threats are hung over your head you will see how many of them are really up for it. The most significant militia threats are rather less overt and rather more networked in ODC than a lot of those bozos who have awful operational security.

    It is not unusual for the authorities to do nothing on the day, then start knocking on doors some days later when the heat goes out.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    I hope you were all watching Chris Witty's Gresham College lecture, released today, as tipped here by @Cyclefree. Really very good indeed - superbly clear, and covering all the key aspects of Covid-19 and policy responses to it from an epidemiological point of view. He even covered the point I've asked about a couple of times about prophylactic use of drugs. I can't say there was anything much new in it for those of us who have been following things closely, but what was impressive was the clarity and comprehensiveness of his presentation. It should be compulsory viewing for all those journalists and politicians who keep asking stupid questions or whingeing about policy choices:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3BdPKpWbxTg

    Thanks.

    BUT, when will the late-to-start lockdown end?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    I'm lost.

    Didn't Nigel want to move away from the NHS towards widespread private health insurance?
    That was ukip nige, brexit nige was all about the NHS.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    TGOHF666 said:
    Could backfire on Scots Nationalists' more looney wing?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Bad news for @AlastairMeeks plans for retirement, Love Island faces the axe. Cornwall not good enough it seems. Surely 14 days quarantine before admission would have been fine...

    https://twitter.com/HuffPostUKEnt/status/1255980761548718080?s=19
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    Genuinely feels to me like Trump is on the edge of the slippery slope before a descent into chaos.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/30/trump-brad-parscale-campaign-manager

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1255971874921644034?s=20

    Absolute gold standard classic Trump.

    Everything. Everything tiny little thing in his life is personal.

    Who? Not which organization etc.

    Has to be a named person, who is getting at him. Who is trying to puncture the world's thinnest skin?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036

    Evening all. I am now officially retired.

    I'm quite refreshed just now. Virtual drinks aren't all that virtual.

    Nice one!

    With spare time on your hands you should stand for election to the local council.

    Good night all.
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100

    TGOHF666 said:
    Could backfire on Scots Nationalists' more looney wing?
    This won't really pass will it?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,885

    TGOHF666 said:
    Could backfire on Scots Nationalists' more looney wing?
    As I noted on previous thread, that National Review piece contains such a massive howler (on the name of the chap last executed for a hate crime) that I wouldn't rely on it for anything. There are much better commentators such as Andrew Tickell for that sort of thing. It'll be interesting to see what he says (usually in the National of a Sunday).
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    alterego said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    Could backfire on Scots Nationalists' more looney wing?
    This won't really pass will it?
    They had it in place for football grounds for a couple of years until it got repealed.

    Bunch of nanny state authoritarians in charge.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,708
    TGOHF666 said:

    alterego said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    Could backfire on Scots Nationalists' more looney wing?
    This won't really pass will it?
    They had it in place for football grounds for a couple of years until it got repealed.

    Bunch of nanny state authoritarians in charge.
    If you want a centre-right government in Scotland, support independence.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Foxy said:

    Bad news for @AlastairMeeks plans for retirement, Love Island faces the axe. Cornwall not good enough it seems. Surely 14 days quarantine before admission would have been fine...

    twitter.com/HuffPostUKEnt/status/1255980761548718080?s=19

    Not going to be much of a show if they had to maintain social distancing ;-)
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052



    If you want a centre-right government in Scotland, support independence.

    “If you want to lose weight, chop your arm off”
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Meanwhile, the Guardian Media Editor shows us journalistic innumeracy in glorious action:

    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1255933256488439815
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149
    MaxPB said:

    BBC bigging up the forthcoming UK-Italy death figure crossover.

    Which isn't a correct comparison because the Italian figure doesn't include care homes while the UK figure includes some.
    It's almost funny that everyone seems to be aware that direct comparisons are fraught with difficulties due to how things are counted differently, but we cannot help ourselves.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    For those in need of entertainment during these lockdown days:

    Trump erupts over poll slump and threatens to sue campaign manager

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/30/trump-brad-parscale-campaign-manager

    It feels a long time ago that PBers were getting incredibly excited about Trump's rising ratings
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited April 2020
    Gallup Incidentally currently have him on +2, his second best rating with them (a +4 from 2 weeks ago)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020

    Meanwhile, the Guardian Media Editor shows us journalistic innumeracy in glorious action:

    twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1255933256488439815

    No wonder these people can't get their heads around the pandemic stats....

    I believe he is another graduate from that second rate institution we are pinning our hopes on for a vaccine.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149

    Another pic from the land of stable geniuses.

    https://twitter.com/SenPolehanki/status/1255899318210314241?s=20

    There is much to admire in the USA. But that tens of millions of americans will see that and either think it's great, or not so big a deal to do anything about a culture that thinks it is ok, is just f*cking baffling.

    I don't think there are many people who could love another person as much as some americans love their guns and want to take them everywhere.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    I'm back in London, temporarily (work, IanB, work)

    It's a weird atmos. Much more subdued than I expected. The clapping definitely felt a bit half hearted.

    But also, for all its many flaws, what a beautiful city it is: the late April sunshine flashing off Georgian sash windows, the rain all silver and glistening on the cobbles in the mews.

    I have been too long exiled in sarf Wales.

    You do realise that the police won't let you back into Wales?
    NOT BEING LET BACK INTO WALES

    To be fair, in the annals of history, there are worse fates
    This work trip must be lucrative, seeing as it involves going back into the plague pit.
    Essential travel.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878
    Alistair said:

    Gallup Incidentally currently have him on +2, his second best rating with them (a +4 from 2 weeks ago)

    Gallup?

    You canter be serious!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    The population of Scotland has increased by 25,200.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52487043
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020
    Chinese flogging dangerous shit again...

    Chinese ventilators that ministers heralded as vital to the NHS’s efforts to tackle Covid-19 were badly built, unsuitable for use in hospitals and potentially dangerous for patients, it has emerged.

    A well-placed NHS source said the incident highlighted problems that had occurred with a range of medical supplies and equipment ordered from China during the coronavirus pandemic.

    “Some other stuff ordered from China recently, especially personal protective equipment, has also turned out to be either of a lesser quality than what we need or to be the wrong thing altogether, like T-shirts instead of long-sleeved surgical gowns” they said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/apr/30/entire-order-of-250-chinese-ventilators-were-useless-despite

    Just taking the piss. Flog the west any old shit, because they will be too busy to worry about any come back.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Andy_JS said:

    The population of Scotland has increased by 25,200.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52487043

    Wait until the Nats find out most of them are E*****h.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Alistair said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    I'm back in London, temporarily (work, IanB, work)

    It's a weird atmos. Much more subdued than I expected. The clapping definitely felt a bit half hearted.

    But also, for all its many flaws, what a beautiful city it is: the late April sunshine flashing off Georgian sash windows, the rain all silver and glistening on the cobbles in the mews.

    I have been too long exiled in sarf Wales.

    You do realise that the police won't let you back into Wales?
    NOT BEING LET BACK INTO WALES

    To be fair, in the annals of history, there are worse fates
    This work trip must be lucrative, seeing as it involves going back into the plague pit.
    Essential travel.
    Isn't it byronic, don't you think ?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,885
    TGOHF666 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The population of Scotland has increased by 25,200.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52487043

    Wait until the Nats find out most of them are E*****h.
    THe biggest, erm, minority in the SNP is ther English!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    TGOHF666 said:

    alterego said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    Could backfire on Scots Nationalists' more looney wing?
    This won't really pass will it?
    They had it in place for football grounds for a couple of years until it got repealed.

    Bunch of nanny state authoritarians in charge.
    If you want a centre-right government in Scotland, support independence.
    Strange, I thought you were against independence.....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,708
    Floater said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    alterego said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    Could backfire on Scots Nationalists' more looney wing?
    This won't really pass will it?
    They had it in place for football grounds for a couple of years until it got repealed.

    Bunch of nanny state authoritarians in charge.
    If you want a centre-right government in Scotland, support independence.
    Strange, I thought you were against independence.....
    I'm in favour of national sovereignty.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Alistair said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    I'm back in London, temporarily (work, IanB, work)

    It's a weird atmos. Much more subdued than I expected. The clapping definitely felt a bit half hearted.

    But also, for all its many flaws, what a beautiful city it is: the late April sunshine flashing off Georgian sash windows, the rain all silver and glistening on the cobbles in the mews.

    I have been too long exiled in sarf Wales.

    You do realise that the police won't let you back into Wales?
    NOT BEING LET BACK INTO WALES

    To be fair, in the annals of history, there are worse fates
    This work trip must be lucrative, seeing as it involves going back into the plague pit.
    Essential travel.
    https://twitter.com/covid19actuary/status/1255973159037276162?s=21
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    If Johnson's medical condition remains unchanged at the end of July, will serious speculation arise as to his ability to continue?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    justin124 said:

    If Johnson's medical condition remains unchanged at the end of July, will serious speculation arise as to his ability to continue?

    Uh? He is back at work and led the press conference today
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    MaxPB said:

    BBC bigging up the forthcoming UK-Italy death figure crossover.

    Which isn't a correct comparison because the Italian figure doesn't include care homes while the UK figure includes some.
    Wrong. In Wednesday's 5pm briefing, the Government's graphics made it clear that Italy's count does include cases tested outside hospitals. They flagged up Spain, not Italy, as the odd one out.

    Wiki: "Deaths statistics for Italy include coronavirus victims who died in hospital, as well as those who died outside of hospitals and were tested before or after dying."

    Pretty similar to our new basis then. The only caveat I would add is that as the total of tests in the UK to date are still less than half those in Italy, the impact of the UK's lack of testing outside of hospitals will have been to understate the cumulative UK figure by much more than in Italy.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    Meanwhile, the Guardian Media Editor shows us journalistic innumeracy in glorious action:

    twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1255933256488439815

    No wonder these people can't get their heads around the pandemic stats....

    I believe he is another graduate from that second rate institution we are pinning our hopes on for a vaccine.
    What Buzzfeed news ?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    ABZ said:

    MaxPB said:

    So I think it's time for the government to consider the unpalatable idea of holing people up in hotels for 14 days if they test positive. We need to start separating people with the virus from the rest of the public until they are definitely no longer infectious. Leaving them to their own devices isn't working.

    If we have the capability to test 100k people per day we will be catching a significant proportion of the people who have the virus everyday, enough to lower the R to well below 1 in just a few days.

    It's not going to be a cheap way of doing it but it will work.

    I'd guess we'll need somewhere between 150k and 200k hotel rooms and other temporary accommodation at peak. Is that feasible? I don't know but we definitely need to try, what we're doing at the moment isn't working and will not only result in another 20,000 people dying it will prevent the reopening of the economy for another 3 months.

    Seems high. 6000 found positive today is 84k people. Positive numbers should be going down too.
    It should keep coming down - look at other countries (e.g., Austria / Switzerland) they have seen very substantial reductions since their peak without resorting to separating families. It seems quite possible we will be able to achieve the same here.

    The more fundamental problem in the UK is that we have (historically) not performed enough tests so previous numbers have been artificially deflated - it seems almost certain that if we could have tested 80000 people at the peak we would have had tens of thousands of positives (plus of course have reduced ongoing infections substantially). Hence, it will take us longer to get the rate down, but there's every reason to hope that this will happen reasonably soon.
    Why wait and hope, it's time for action. I'm sure if you asked the public the question they would be up for it. 14-21 days of full separation of people who have the virus followed by an almost full opening up of the economy or 6 more weeks of the current situation plus a slow opening up of the economy. That's the choice right now and I think I'd rather go down the drastic action route, even if it's expensive.
    What makes you think that transmission is happening because of people who've tested positive already?
    If you have 6k people who have tested positive and an R of 0.7, those 6k will infect another 4k people, my proposal means those 4k people won't be infected. Then follow that up for 14 days worth of taking people into hotel rooms and you're suddenly reducing the R to 0.2 from 0.7, it may be artificial but it will work. It's how China did it and, IMO, they had a much more serious outbreak in Hubei than we have had. I have no doubt their test and separate policy was a huge factor in getting the R from 3 to 0.1 in a very short period of time.

    I'd like for the government to level with the public and basically ask which route we'd like to take, the severe test and separate route followed by track and trace with a Korean style full opening of the economy, or another 6 weeks of slowly opening things back up. I think the British people are made of much sterner stuff than our scientists give us credit for and will live with test and separate.
    You're making a flawed assumption that (a) the R rate for people who have tested positive is the same as the R rate for the general population who have not tested positive and (b) the people who have tested positive won't have already infected anyone prior to testing positive and (c) that everyone who is positive is tested and tests positive.

    If any of those assumptions are wrong (and I think they all are) a premature lifting of lockdown would raise R by more than separation would lower it.
    I think the best analogy (and I know how we love an analogy here) is of a fire. This virus is a fire that doubles in size basically every day if nothing is done. Our measures have allowed us to remove enough of its new fuel source and oxygen so it has started to burn itself out. What China did and what I think we should do is literally looking at the fire, getting parts of it that are still on fire and putting it somewhere that only has inert gases so it stops burning. What I'm proposing is reducing the number of infected people in the general population, do that for two or three weeks and the problem solved itself.
    If you reduce the number of infected people in the general population yes, but I don't think you do that with separation, you do that with testing.

    If people know they are infected then what do you think they're doing currently - going out to Asda and living normally? You can be separated from the general population within your own home from the moment you know you are positive for the virus.

    The virus isn't spreading because people know they have the virus and are still going out. The virus is spreading because of the people who don't know that they have the virus and they're the ones we need to be tracing - your solution does nothing to identify them.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    I'm back in London, temporarily (work, IanB, work)

    It's a weird atmos. Much more subdued than I expected. The clapping definitely felt a bit half hearted.

    But also, for all its many flaws, what a beautiful city it is: the late April sunshine flashing off Georgian sash windows, the rain all silver and glistening on the cobbles in the mews.

    I have been too long exiled in sarf Wales.

    You do realise that the police won't let you back into Wales?
    NOT BEING LET BACK INTO WALES

    To be fair, in the annals of history, there are worse fates
    This work trip must be lucrative, seeing as it involves going back into the plague pit.
    Essential travel.
    https://twitter.com/covid19actuary/status/1255973159037276162?s=21
    That looks like a super cool visualisation but I can't get over the calibration that makes it "cases per 4.8 million" .

    That is intrinsically funny somehow.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    I'm back in London, temporarily (work, IanB, work)

    It's a weird atmos. Much more subdued than I expected. The clapping definitely felt a bit half hearted.

    But also, for all its many flaws, what a beautiful city it is: the late April sunshine flashing off Georgian sash windows, the rain all silver and glistening on the cobbles in the mews.

    I have been too long exiled in sarf Wales.

    You do realise that the police won't let you back into Wales?
    NOT BEING LET BACK INTO WALES

    To be fair, in the annals of history, there are worse fates
    This work trip must be lucrative, seeing as it involves going back into the plague pit.
    Essential travel.
    https://twitter.com/covid19actuary/status/1255973159037276162?s=21
    That looks like a super cool visualisation but I can't get over the calibration that makes it "cases per 4.8 million" .

    That is intrinsically funny somehow.
    Yes, I mean you could go with cases per 10 million... or per million... and the chart would look exactly the same
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    If Johnson's medical condition remains unchanged at the end of July, will serious speculation arise as to his ability to continue?

    Uh? He is back at work and led the press conference today
    But many have said he appeared unfit and breathless. If he failed to recover further, concerns might well mount.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    I'm back in London, temporarily (work, IanB, work)

    It's a weird atmos. Much more subdued than I expected. The clapping definitely felt a bit half hearted.

    But also, for all its many flaws, what a beautiful city it is: the late April sunshine flashing off Georgian sash windows, the rain all silver and glistening on the cobbles in the mews.

    I have been too long exiled in sarf Wales.

    You do realise that the police won't let you back into Wales?
    NOT BEING LET BACK INTO WALES

    To be fair, in the annals of history, there are worse fates
    This work trip must be lucrative, seeing as it involves going back into the plague pit.
    Essential travel.
    Isn't it byronic, don't you think ?
    “For Wales? Why SeanT, it profit a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world. . . but for Wales!”
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    edited April 2020
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    If Johnson's medical condition remains unchanged at the end of July, will serious speculation arise as to his ability to continue?

    Uh? He is back at work and led the press conference today
    But many have said he appeared unfit and breathless. If he failed to recover further, concerns might well mount.
    He looked fine to me, a few leftwingers may think differently but as the Tories have a majority of 80 and there are 4 years of the parliament left what they think is irrelevant
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    If Johnson's medical condition remains unchanged at the end of July, will serious speculation arise as to his ability to continue?

    Uh? He is back at work and led the press conference today
    But many have said he appeared unfit and breathless. If he failed to recover further, concerns might well mount.
    If he hasn’t got any better by the end of July, the virus is even worse than we think now!

    People banging on about his health, or lack of it, are just trying to find a route to a general election, because they reckon Starmer could beat AN Other Tory probably
This discussion has been closed.