I look forward to the 3000 word rebuttal of the Telegraph lead story. Or not.
May 7 makes sense and matches what I was just saying. Why announce anything premature this week right before the Bank Holiday long weekend when you are already scheduled to announce a review next week?
Boris now that he is back should be working on things this week, but announcing them next week.
We have known for many weeks that May 7 is on the “grid”, although I don’t think the government is SO cynical as to announce unwise measures at that time just for the sake of it.
Kay Burley is so rude and ignorant. Victoria Atkins MP on to discuss the Domestic Violance Abuse Bill, Kay Burley demands to know what the Government is going to do about the Airline industry. Atkins says that the Business Secretary was looking into that but she was here to discuss the Domestic Violence Abuse Bill - Burley says "you represent the Government so need to answer my questions".
WTF? You think every Government MP has a hive mind and knows what the Business Secretary is working on or will decide?
Kay Burley is another victim of the corona virus - it has found her weakness and exploited it.
The effect it has had on the regard of journalists is one of its more devastating features. Relentless, working 24/7, it has scythed through the reputations of broadcasters.
Any idea that she was ever anything other than biassed, rude and ignorant has never crossed my mind. No-one watches Sky News.
Except the hundreds on PB each day complaining about it!
The displacement activity of docile PB-ers' daily rants against journalists is one of the more unedifying phenomena of the Coronavirus.
As unedifying as us also ranting about politicians daily? Get a grip, people moan on here it happens.
Perfectly ok to moan at anyone you want. Politicians are the ones implementing the policies by which we live. Journalists are the ones trying to hold those politicians to account. People on here, and I get it, they are scared and want to be told what to do, seem not to like the journalists rocking the boat.
I think the frustration that many on here feel is that there are real, serious questions to ask the government and the journalists seem to come up with simplistic variations on the story du jour.
Appreciate that the set up is not conducive to challenging questions, but I wish they were more thoughtful rather than looking for soundbites
I think people want broad brush, primary colour questions and answer atm. I don't think the national psyche is up to too much nuance.
Everyone (certainly on here) might like a knockout question but knockout blows are only delivered after your opponent has been opened up by a series of jabs.
People on here are criticising the jabs saying well it didn't knock them out.
( @kle4 might need your help here if you remember you are PB's analogy assessment chief)
Sure, but all the questions are basically the same.
If journalists could coordinate a bit, or were faster on their feet in developing in an argument then it would be useful
This. Plus, in the age of the internet, hypertext your stories more. If the poor dear public can't be disturbed with too much detail, they can read the top level story. Why not link through to detail, though?
Perhaps the reason is journalists ask the same questions is so their employers can then play the video of their woman asking the minister, and not their rival's man on the spot. This is probably why the government set it up this way. Under the old lobby rules, this did not matter because no-one knew who asked what.
Austria opening hotels on the 29th May with no heed whatsoever to a common EU position must be causing alarm in Italy, Spain and France who have indicated they will stay closed this year
It cannot be denied, even by the most ardent supporter of the EU, that the EU has been found wanting and exposed to every likelihood that individual nations will continue to take decisions in their own self interest as they work their way through this crisis and beyond
One can be pro-EU while criticising the people running the institution, as one can be a a Unionist without being a Tory. A fair criticism of the EU is the difficulty of changing the people who run it, but again you can be a reformist Europhile as much as you can want to reform the UK.
If the EU was imposing coronavirus decisions centrally that would be attacked too. It is probably a good idea to allow some local decision making as in the US and EU.
Austria opening hotels on the 29th May with no heed whatsoever to a common EU position must be causing alarm in Italy, Spain and France who have indicated they will stay closed this year
It cannot be denied, even by the most ardent supporter of the EU, that the EU has been found wanting and exposed to every likelihood that individual nations will continue to take decisions in their own self interest as they work their way through this crisis and beyond
Give it a rest.
Everything’s about “EU failure” to you, it’s quite dull.
Unfair.
There's a fair bit of Labour failure and the occasional SNP failure too.
I look forward to the 3000 word rebuttal of the Telegraph lead story. Or not.
May 7 makes sense and matches what I was just saying. Why announce anything premature this week right before the Bank Holiday long weekend when you are already scheduled to announce a review next week?
Boris now that he is back should be working on things this week, but announcing them next week.
We have known for many weeks that May 7 is on the “grid”, although I don’t think the government is SO cynical as to announce unwise measures at that time just for the sake of it.
I don't think its just for the sake of it, I think its the logical date to announce things in it is own right if they're ready. If its not then announce another continuance but as it stands with our point of the curve we are a week to two weeks behind others who are loosening so that makes sense.
Austria opening hotels on the 29th May with no heed whatsoever to a common EU position must be causing alarm in Italy, Spain and France who have indicated they will stay closed this year
It cannot be denied, even by the most ardent supporter of the EU, that the EU has been found wanting and exposed to every likelihood that individual nations will continue to take decisions in their own self interest as they work their way through this crisis and beyond
Give it a rest.
Everything’s about “EU failure” to you, it’s quite dull.
You should engage with the argument about how poor the EU has been rather than trying to close down any criticism of the legitimate concerns that it is not fit for purpose
Contrary to the Header my vibes are not that lockdown is set to be eased. I am fortunate enough to have a Sir Cliff Richard calendar on the kitchen wall and I have marked the end of UK lockdown on there. 28th May. The balance of political risk steers to keeping it until then.
In his May picture, Cliff is in concert and is wearing head to toe denim. Shirt is well open, hair long, big sideburns. Quite raunchy. It catches him in what many feel to be his best period, the mid seventies. Very possible, therefore, that the song he is singing is Devil Woman (1976) - I like to think so anyway.
Austria opening hotels on the 29th May with no heed whatsoever to a common EU position must be causing alarm in Italy, Spain and France who have indicated they will stay closed this year
It cannot be denied, even by the most ardent supporter of the EU, that the EU has been found wanting and exposed to every likelihood that individual nations will continue to take decisions in their own self interest as they work their way through this crisis and beyond
Give it a rest.
Everything’s about “EU failure” to you, it’s quite dull.
You should engage with the argument about how poor the EU has been rather than trying to close down any criticism of the legitimate concerns that it is not fit for purpose
What’s its purpose? That’s a real existential question. One that is frequently levelled at the nation state too.
Contrary to the Header my vibes are not that lockdown is set to be eased. I am fortunate enough to have a Sir Cliff Richard calendar on the kitchen wall and I have marked the end of UK lockdown on there. 28th May. The balance of political risk steers to keeping it until then.
In his May picture, Cliff is in concert and is wearing head to toe denim. Shirt is well open, hair rather long, big sideburns. Quite raunchy. It catches him in what many feel to be his best period, the mid seventies. Very possible, therefore, that the song he is singing is Devil Woman (1976) - I like to think so anyway.
I do wish Johnson would lay off the war metaphors. They aren't helpful. We're not going to defeat this virus - unless someone somewhere invents a workable vaccine and that's not a national battle thing.
Living with the virus above all requires discipline. People's behaviours need to be conditioned to minimise infection. It's all about that.
I wish he'd tone down his use of metaphors altogether. The whole speech was almost content free, and packed with meaningless verbiage, which detracted from a necessary message..
Contrary to the Header my vibes are not that lockdown is set to be eased. I am fortunate enough to have a Sir Cliff Richard calendar on the kitchen wall and I have marked the end of UK lockdown on there. 28th May. The balance of political risk steers to keeping it until then.
In his May picture, Cliff is in concert and is wearing head to toe denim. Shirt is well open, hair long, big sideburns. Quite raunchy. It catches him in what many feel to be his best period, the mid seventies. Very possible, therefore, that the song he is singing is Devil Woman (1976) - I like to think so anyway.
Double-denim Cliff is niche even for pb.com - the home of the niche!!
Austria opening hotels on the 29th May with no heed whatsoever to a common EU position must be causing alarm in Italy, Spain and France who have indicated they will stay closed this year
It cannot be denied, even by the most ardent supporter of the EU, that the EU has been found wanting and exposed to every likelihood that individual nations will continue to take decisions in their own self interest as they work their way through this crisis and beyond
Give it a rest.
Everything’s about “EU failure” to you, it’s quite dull.
You should engage with the argument about how poor the EU has been rather than trying to close down any criticism of the legitimate concerns that it is not fit for purpose
You don’t have an argument. You must keep whining that the EU has failed.
Meanwhile, Britain looks to have the most excess deaths per capita in Europe (bar tiny San Marino).
- Germany has maintained social distancing rules, recommending masks in shops and on public transport, but have opened shops "under a certain size"
- Denmark has reopened schools and nurseries for children up to the age of 11
- Construction and manufacturing work is back under way in Spain
- Thousands of smaller shops in Austria reopened on Tuesday, and the country will allow outdoor sport such as tennis, golf and athletics from 1 May
- Some regions in Italy have reopened bookshops and children's clothing stores
That can provide useful data. If Germany's restriction-easing has caused Rt to jump too far, we should see corroboration in Austria. It could be that smaller shops are worse for infectivity than larger shops (as there's less room and the space is more enclosed - but that's just guessing). The Austrian data could be made a bit fuzzy by the outside sports/activities while maintaining social distancing - I suspect those will be minimum risk, but I'm aware I want to believe that, so my opinion there is suspect.
Denmark and Spain will provide very useful data on different areas (I suspect that primary schools may be minimal risk, but that's just a suspicion. I hope to God it's true, for the sake of the Danish kids, as well as providing evidence that we may be able to send our youngest kids back to school).
Given Germany has only been open a week - is it feasible that the "R" would have been observed to move already ?
I wondered about that, but then they do have a good level of testing, which would help them detect a change earlier than somewhere like the UK.
Germany has done more than recommend "masks" for shopping and public transport - some kind of nose and mouth covering mouth is mandatory. At least it is here - it might vary regionally.
Shops below 800 sq metres are now open. In practice that means most shops, as plenty of bigger shops are also allowed to be open: supermarkets, diy shops, bicycle shops, car dealers, bookshops, baby shops, furniture shops...
I guess it's mainly big clothes shops and electronics shops that are still closed. And bars restaurants etc can only do takeaway still. The brothels are still closed
Secondary schools have already reopened for pupils with exams this year. Next week primary schools reopen, starting with the final year.
It's going to be difficult to find out what is making R rise (if indeed it is, I think it's too early to say). People are generally taking distancing rules a bit less seriously, from what I've seen.
Contrary to the Header my vibes are not that lockdown is set to be eased. I am fortunate enough to have a Sir Cliff Richard calendar on the kitchen wall and I have marked the end of UK lockdown on there. 28th May. The balance of political risk steers to keeping it until then.
In his May picture, Cliff is in concert and is wearing head to toe denim. Shirt is well open, hair long, big sideburns. Quite raunchy. It catches him in what many feel to be his best period, the mid seventies. Very possible, therefore, that the song he is singing is Devil Woman (1976) - I like to think so anyway.
I look forward to the 3000 word rebuttal of the Telegraph lead story. Or not.
We're definitely into phase two of the lockdown, the volume of cars was up plenty during my morning run today.
Yeh, but, but, we should have locked down several weeks earlier.
Under what criteria should we have locked down earlier?
The NHS hasn't exceeded capacity and unless and until a vaccine we have to operate on the principle that everyone will catch it at some point.
Except for New Zealand I suspect a lot of countries that locked down earlier have only delayed a worse outbreak later.
I was being sarcastic. Sorry, doesn't always work on screen.
The Left in particular are screaming we should have locked down weeks before we did. They just refuse to accept that the science guys knew we wouldn't stick it more than a month or six weeks or so.
Austria opening hotels on the 29th May with no heed whatsoever to a common EU position must be causing alarm in Italy, Spain and France who have indicated they will stay closed this year
It cannot be denied, even by the most ardent supporter of the EU, that the EU has been found wanting and exposed to every likelihood that individual nations will continue to take decisions in their own self interest as they work their way through this crisis and beyond
Give it a rest.
Everything’s about “EU failure” to you, it’s quite dull.
You should engage with the argument about how poor the EU has been rather than trying to close down any criticism of the legitimate concerns that it is not fit for purpose
You don’t have an argument. You must keep whining that the EU has failed.
Meanwhile, Britain looks to have the most excess deaths per capita in Europe (bar tiny San Marino).
The cabinet was chosen for maximum ideology and minimum threat to Johnson. Minimum threat is closely correlated to minimum competence. It would be nice to adjust the balance: decrease ideology; increase competence.
Also might do something to the average honesty level. Gove, Patel, Raab and Johnson himself have above politician normal issues in this respect.
Austria opening hotels on the 29th May with no heed whatsoever to a common EU position must be causing alarm in Italy, Spain and France who have indicated they will stay closed this year
It cannot be denied, even by the most ardent supporter of the EU, that the EU has been found wanting and exposed to every likelihood that individual nations will continue to take decisions in their own self interest as they work their way through this crisis and beyond
Give it a rest.
Everything’s about “EU failure” to you, it’s quite dull.
You should engage with the argument about how poor the EU has been rather than trying to close down any criticism of the legitimate concerns that it is not fit for purpose
You don’t have an argument. You must keep whining that the EU has failed.
Meanwhile, Britain looks to have the most excess deaths per capita in Europe (bar tiny San Marino).
I think over 17 million would disagree with you on the EU
I look forward to the 3000 word rebuttal of the Telegraph lead story. Or not.
May 7 makes sense and matches what I was just saying. Why announce anything premature this week right before the Bank Holiday long weekend when you are already scheduled to announce a review next week?
Boris now that he is back should be working on things this week, but announcing them next week.
Remember the Bank Holiday has been moved to VE day on Friday 8th, so the early May Bank Holiday weekend is one weekend later then it would normally be - so announcing imminent easing on the 7th would be an invitation to party on the bank holiday weekend immediately thereafter.
I can see the appeal of wanting to declare victory over Coronavirus in time for VE day, but I think it would likely be premature.
Austria opening hotels on the 29th May with no heed whatsoever to a common EU position must be causing alarm in Italy, Spain and France who have indicated they will stay closed this year
It cannot be denied, even by the most ardent supporter of the EU, that the EU has been found wanting and exposed to every likelihood that individual nations will continue to take decisions in their own self interest as they work their way through this crisis and beyond
Give it a rest.
Everything’s about “EU failure” to you, it’s quite dull.
You should engage with the argument about how poor the EU has been rather than trying to close down any criticism of the legitimate concerns that it is not fit for purpose
You don’t have an argument. You must keep whining that the EU has failed.
Meanwhile, Britain looks to have the most excess deaths per capita in Europe (bar tiny San Marino).
We're actually counting and not hiding the data.
I don’t think we are hiding the data.
Are some European countries hiding the data? I don’t know. I am referring to the FT analysis from yesterday which was looking at ONS and equivalent figures.
The number of non-COVID deaths in care homes is significantly up. To me, this suggests that seriously ill people in care homes are not being moved to hospital as in the past.
We went into lockdown a week after France and Spain. I don't see the justification for a shorter lockdown when UK growth rate of deaths and cases is still well above other European countries.
That the economy is collapsing, domestic violence is through the roof, the sick have put off essential operations, people are starting to ignore it anyway and NHS capacity has been successfully (arguably excessively) ramped up to cope with a second wave?
Unsurprising figure but I'm surprised as many as 7% went for Gove too - as someone who likes Gove. Shows the unreliability of polling respondents to answer the question actually asked.
Gove and Patel simply haven't done that much that's obvious compared to the others during Boris's absence. Their departments are not as key frontline as the others.
Nation likes person who gives them free stuff shock.
Nation likes person who took the risk to react quickly in what was a constructive manner. Given the usual speed of the Treasury when it comes to handing back money, it was a bloody miracle.
Compare and contrast with everyone else in government.
(Seeing if embedding will work) trends.embed.renderExploreWidget("TIMESERIES", {"comparisonItem":[{"keyword":"coronavirus","geo":"GB","time":"today 12-m"},{"keyword":"unemployment","geo":"GB","time":"today 12-m"}],"category":0,"property":""}, {"exploreQuery":"geo=GB&q=coronavirus,unemployment&date=today 12-m,today 12-m","guestPath":"https://trends.google.com:443/trends/embed/"});
EDIT: Didn't work embedding the script, so adding the screenshot:
I nabbed my screenshot off Reddit so mine will likely be US or global. Apologies - should have made that clear.
No worries. For all the criticism of the Government (in terms of speed of reaction, PPE, and especially care homes), they do seem to have got a lot of the economic response correct.
Austria opening hotels on the 29th May with no heed whatsoever to a common EU position must be causing alarm in Italy, Spain and France who have indicated they will stay closed this year
It cannot be denied, even by the most ardent supporter of the EU, that the EU has been found wanting and exposed to every likelihood that individual nations will continue to take decisions in their own self interest as they work their way through this crisis and beyond
Give it a rest.
Everything’s about “EU failure” to you, it’s quite dull.
You should engage with the argument about how poor the EU has been rather than trying to close down any criticism of the legitimate concerns that it is not fit for purpose
You don’t have an argument. You must keep whining that the EU has failed.
Meanwhile, Britain looks to have the most excess deaths per capita in Europe (bar tiny San Marino).
I think over 17 million would disagree with you on the EU
What happened to the £350 million a WEEK for the NHS?
Austria opening hotels on the 29th May with no heed whatsoever to a common EU position must be causing alarm in Italy, Spain and France who have indicated they will stay closed this year
It cannot be denied, even by the most ardent supporter of the EU, that the EU has been found wanting and exposed to every likelihood that individual nations will continue to take decisions in their own self interest as they work their way through this crisis and beyond
Give it a rest.
Everything’s about “EU failure” to you, it’s quite dull.
You should engage with the argument about how poor the EU has been rather than trying to close down any criticism of the legitimate concerns that it is not fit for purpose
You don’t have an argument. You must keep whining that the EU has failed.
Meanwhile, Britain looks to have the most excess deaths per capita in Europe (bar tiny San Marino).
I think over 17 million would disagree with you on the EU
I look forward to the 3000 word rebuttal of the Telegraph lead story. Or not.
We're definitely into phase two of the lockdown, the volume of cars was up plenty during my morning run today.
Yeh, but, but, we should have locked down several weeks earlier.
Under what criteria should we have locked down earlier?
The NHS hasn't exceeded capacity and unless and until a vaccine we have to operate on the principle that everyone will catch it at some point.
Except for New Zealand I suspect a lot of countries that locked down earlier have only delayed a worse outbreak later.
I was being sarcastic. Sorry, doesn't always work on screen.
The Left in particular are screaming we should have locked down weeks before we did. They just refuse to accept that the science guys knew we wouldn't stick it more than a month or six weeks or so.
We should have locked down earlier, to save lives and protect the NHS.
Behavioural science has nothing to do with it.
We will eventually learn that locking down earlier would have saved 1,000s of lives.
Austria opening hotels on the 29th May with no heed whatsoever to a common EU position must be causing alarm in Italy, Spain and France who have indicated they will stay closed this year
It cannot be denied, even by the most ardent supporter of the EU, that the EU has been found wanting and exposed to every likelihood that individual nations will continue to take decisions in their own self interest as they work their way through this crisis and beyond
Give it a rest.
Everything’s about “EU failure” to you, it’s quite dull.
You should engage with the argument about how poor the EU has been rather than trying to close down any criticism of the legitimate concerns that it is not fit for purpose
You don’t have an argument. You must keep whining that the EU has failed.
Meanwhile, Britain looks to have the most excess deaths per capita in Europe (bar tiny San Marino).
I think over 17 million would disagree with you on the EU
What happened to the £350 million a WEEK for the NHS?
I think you will find a much larger amount has gone into the NHS sadly through covid
I look forward to the 3000 word rebuttal of the Telegraph lead story. Or not.
We're definitely into phase two of the lockdown, the volume of cars was up plenty during my morning run today.
Yeh, but, but, we should have locked down several weeks earlier.
Under what criteria should we have locked down earlier?
The NHS hasn't exceeded capacity and unless and until a vaccine we have to operate on the principle that everyone will catch it at some point.
Except for New Zealand I suspect a lot of countries that locked down earlier have only delayed a worse outbreak later.
On the criterion that the number of infected was doubling every two or three days. Even a week earlier would have made the task of dealing with the end of lockdown much less complicated, and requiring a fraction of the track and trace we'll now need. There's an element of hindsight in that, of course, but only an element. If you can keep the number of cases low enough, then controlling it without further lockdowns becomes quite feasible (see S. Korea).
Austria opening hotels on the 29th May with no heed whatsoever to a common EU position must be causing alarm in Italy, Spain and France who have indicated they will stay closed this year
It cannot be denied, even by the most ardent supporter of the EU, that the EU has been found wanting and exposed to every likelihood that individual nations will continue to take decisions in their own self interest as they work their way through this crisis and beyond
Give it a rest.
Everything’s about “EU failure” to you, it’s quite dull.
You should engage with the argument about how poor the EU has been rather than trying to close down any criticism of the legitimate concerns that it is not fit for purpose
You don’t have an argument. You must keep whining that the EU has failed.
Meanwhile, Britain looks to have the most excess deaths per capita in Europe (bar tiny San Marino).
I think over 17 million would disagree with you on the EU
Not you though, you voted to Remain - and have spent the last four years in devout Brexitolatry to atone for it.
There is so much negative stuff going on that sometimes a bit of praise is due.
For example Sainsburys quickly identified my wife as in the highly vulnerable group and have allocated us a delivery slot each week, for which we are very grateful.
Must admit though that I don't like online grocery shopping. Last week my wife asked me to order 7 loose bananas, but I somehow managed to order 7 bags of 8, meaning we ended up with 56 of the bloody things.
I ended up giving them away to family and neighbours, to add insult to injury this week I did manage to get the order right but they didn't send any!
My wife has just ordered 16 kg of flour because she couldn't get a smaller pack!
Your wife's buns are going to be things of legend.....
I look forward to the 3000 word rebuttal of the Telegraph lead story. Or not.
We're definitely into phase two of the lockdown, the volume of cars was up plenty during my morning run today.
Yeh, but, but, we should have locked down several weeks earlier.
Under what criteria should we have locked down earlier?
The NHS hasn't exceeded capacity and unless and until a vaccine we have to operate on the principle that everyone will catch it at some point.
Except for New Zealand I suspect a lot of countries that locked down earlier have only delayed a worse outbreak later.
I was being sarcastic. Sorry, doesn't always work on screen.
The Left in particular are screaming we should have locked down weeks before we did. They just refuse to accept that the science guys knew we wouldn't stick it more than a month or six weeks or so.
We should have locked down earlier, to save lives and protect the NHS.
Behavioural science has nothing to do with it.
We will eventually learn that locking down earlier would have saved 1,000s of lives.
The scientists and/or the govt - were wrong.
I think this is right IF the plan is eradication.
But I don't think that is the plan. Hence why the minutes from the meetings will not be released.
Austria opening hotels on the 29th May with no heed whatsoever to a common EU position must be causing alarm in Italy, Spain and France who have indicated they will stay closed this year
It cannot be denied, even by the most ardent supporter of the EU, that the EU has been found wanting and exposed to every likelihood that individual nations will continue to take decisions in their own self interest as they work their way through this crisis and beyond
Give it a rest.
Everything’s about “EU failure” to you, it’s quite dull.
You should engage with the argument about how poor the EU has been rather than trying to close down any criticism of the legitimate concerns that it is not fit for purpose
You don’t have an argument. You must keep whining that the EU has failed.
Meanwhile, Britain looks to have the most excess deaths per capita in Europe (bar tiny San Marino).
I think over 17 million would disagree with you on the EU
Not you though, you voted to Remain - and have spent the last four years in devout Brexitolatry to atone for it.
Austria opening hotels on the 29th May with no heed whatsoever to a common EU position must be causing alarm in Italy, Spain and France who have indicated they will stay closed this year
It cannot be denied, even by the most ardent supporter of the EU, that the EU has been found wanting and exposed to every likelihood that individual nations will continue to take decisions in their own self interest as they work their way through this crisis and beyond
Give it a rest.
Everything’s about “EU failure” to you, it’s quite dull.
You should engage with the argument about how poor the EU has been rather than trying to close down any criticism of the legitimate concerns that it is not fit for purpose
You don’t have an argument. You must keep whining that the EU has failed.
Meanwhile, Britain looks to have the most excess deaths per capita in Europe (bar tiny San Marino).
I think over 17 million would disagree with you on the EU
What happened to the £350 million a WEEK for the NHS?
I look forward to the 3000 word rebuttal of the Telegraph lead story. Or not.
We're definitely into phase two of the lockdown, the volume of cars was up plenty during my morning run today.
Yeh, but, but, we should have locked down several weeks earlier.
Under what criteria should we have locked down earlier?
The NHS hasn't exceeded capacity and unless and until a vaccine we have to operate on the principle that everyone will catch it at some point.
Except for New Zealand I suspect a lot of countries that locked down earlier have only delayed a worse outbreak later.
I was being sarcastic. Sorry, doesn't always work on screen.
The Left in particular are screaming we should have locked down weeks before we did. They just refuse to accept that the science guys knew we wouldn't stick it more than a month or six weeks or so.
We should have locked down earlier, to save lives and protect the NHS.
Behavioural science has nothing to do with it.
We will eventually learn that locking down earlier would have saved 1,000s of lives.
The scientists and/or the govt - were wrong.
I think this is right IF the plan is eradication.
But I don't think that is the plan. Hence why the minutes from the meetings will not be released.
50 year rule on them ?
There's track and trace which is the middle ground between elimination and herd immunity (Which involves mass deaths to get there).
I don't think the Gov't was going for elimination, track and trace or herd immunity though. It was going for a partially man managed, partially seasonal outbreak containment because it's modelling was based on seasonal bloody flu.
We went into lockdown a week after France and Spain. I don't see the justification for a shorter lockdown when UK growth rate of deaths and cases is still well above other European countries.
That the economy is collapsing, domestic violence is through the roof, the sick have put off essential operations, people are starting to ignore it anyway and NHS capacity has been successfully (arguably excessively) ramped up to cope with a second wave?
If we ease too early, it will mean more lockdown later. I'd rather another week now, than 3 more weeks in the Summer.
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EDIT: Didn't work embedding the script, so adding the screenshot:
I nabbed my screenshot off Reddit so mine will likely be US or global. Apologies - should have made that clear.
No worries. For all the criticism of the Government (in terms of speed of reaction, PPE, and especially care homes), they do seem to have got a lot of the economic response correct.
How do we know? It’s too early to tell. What we can say is that our measures have often been more complex and piecemeal than in some countries.
The Left in particular are screaming we should have locked down weeks before we did. They just refuse to accept that the science guys knew we wouldn't stick it more than a month or six weeks or so.
That's simply not true, sorry. The polls show support for the lockdown as strong as ever, with more people wanting stricter measures than relaxation.The late lockdown has undoubtedly cost lives.
I know you've been a sceptic about acceptance from the start just as I've felt there would be few problems, and we're probably both extrapolaring from how we and our friends feel (personally I'd be willing to stay indoors in my two-room cottage for a year, say), and I expect the average is somewhere in between. But most people are OK with it for now, and IMO they'd still be OK if it had started a month earlier and our death rate was now down to say 200/day instead of 600.
The number of non-COVID deaths in care homes is significantly up. To me, this suggests that seriously ill people in care homes are not being moved to hospital as in the past.
Or that they were not recorded as Covid deaths. Given the lack of testing up until quite recently, it's likely a proportion of those were.
I still don't know the answer to this question: when it first became apparent there was an coronavirus epidemic in China, why didn't the government shut the external borders of the country, in conjunction with a strict quarantine for British people seeking to return home?
Austria opening hotels on the 29th May with no heed whatsoever to a common EU position must be causing alarm in Italy, Spain and France who have indicated they will stay closed this year
It cannot be denied, even by the most ardent supporter of the EU, that the EU has been found wanting and exposed to every likelihood that individual nations will continue to take decisions in their own self interest as they work their way through this crisis and beyond
Give it a rest.
Everything’s about “EU failure” to you, it’s quite dull.
You should engage with the argument about how poor the EU has been rather than trying to close down any criticism of the legitimate concerns that it is not fit for purpose
You don’t have an argument. You must keep whining that the EU has failed.
Meanwhile, Britain looks to have the most excess deaths per capita in Europe (bar tiny San Marino).
I think over 17 million would disagree with you on the EU
Not you though, you voted to Remain - and have spent the last four years in devout Brexitolatry to atone for it.
I am a democrat
LOL.
Actually, making appeals to majoritarianism is not very democratic.
Unsurprising figure but I'm surprised as many as 7% went for Gove too - as someone who likes Gove. Shows the unreliability of polling respondents to answer the question actually asked.
Gove and Patel simply haven't done that much that's obvious compared to the others during Boris's absence. Their departments are not as key frontline as the others.
Nation likes person who gives them free stuff shock.
Nation likes person who took the risk to react quickly in what was a constructive manner. Given the usual speed of the Treasury when it comes to handing back money, it was a bloody miracle.
Compare and contrast with everyone else in government.
Note he's never once said "we're following the advice of our economists"...
I still don't know the answer to this question: when it first became apparent there was an coronavirus epidemic in China, why didn't the government shut the external borders of the country, in conjunction with a strict quarantine for British people seeking to return home?
"Social distancing could be “abandoned” by the end of this year if decision-makers stopped waiting for a vaccine, an expert claimed.
Professor Hugh Pennington, emeritus professor of bacteriology at Aberdeen University, said he was “reasonably optimistic” that the coronavirus outbreak could be “eradicated” in Britain by Christmas by focusing efforts on a huge increase in testing and tracing."
Increased testing or work on a vaccine?
My own thoughts have been for a while that if there was a rapid, easy, reliable and ubiquitous test we could put wherever we wanted (before entering stores, restaurants, places of work, sports areas, public transport), we'd beat the virus without any vaccine or treatment.
It may be that such an idealised test system is complete science fiction (or even fantasy - but I've seen more implausible things unfold) and not even necessary - while test-and-trace will inevitably have gaps, maybe there's a level of coverage where it effectively drives down the Rt to a sufficient level (although I fear that we'd find it far more challenging than New Zealand - London is one of the major cross-roads of the world)
I still don't know the answer to this question: when it first became apparent there was an coronavirus epidemic in China, why didn't the government shut the external borders of the country, in conjunction with a strict quarantine for British people seeking to return home?
How about even doing this a few weeks ago? We still haven’t done it.
The Left in particular are screaming we should have locked down weeks before we did. They just refuse to accept that the science guys knew we wouldn't stick it more than a month or six weeks or so.
That's simply not true, sorry. The polls show support for the lockdown as strong as ever, with more people wanting stricter measures than relaxation.The late lockdown has undoubtedly cost lives.
I know you've been a sceptic about acceptance from the start just as I've felt there would be few problems, and we're probably both extrapolaring from how we and our friends feel (personally I'd be willing to stay indoors in my two-room cottage for a year, say), and I expect the average is somewhere in between. But most people are OK with it for now, and IMO they'd still be OK if it had started a month earlier and our death rate was now down to say 200/day instead of 600.
Polls always show support for virtuous things. Polls don't mean squat. Supporting the lockdown in a poll is about as meaningful as supporting other people paying a tax in a poll.
In the real world the lockdown is already starting to fray as people support the lockdown but view more of their own personal actions as essential. Transport usage is already starting to go back up - that is empirically measurable and meaningful in more of a way than a poll is.
That certainly is sobering stuff, and of course a potential no-deal Brexit is going to be complicating things even more for the UK. I for one will be maintaining a good cushion of food stocks for a while yet.
I still don't know the answer to this question: when it first became apparent there was an coronavirus epidemic in China, why didn't the government shut the external borders of the country, in conjunction with a strict quarantine for British people seeking to return home?
How about even doing this a few weeks ago? We still haven’t done it.
Are you considering heading back to New Zealand (Even with the strict quarantine to get in) or is that not an option for you now ?
Kay Burley is so rude and ignorant. Victoria Atkins MP on to discuss the Domestic Violance Abuse Bill, Kay Burley demands to know what the Government is going to do about the Airline industry. Atkins says that the Business Secretary was looking into that but she was here to discuss the Domestic Violence Abuse Bill - Burley says "you represent the Government so need to answer my questions".
WTF? You think every Government MP has a hive mind and knows what the Business Secretary is working on or will decide?
Kay Burley is another victim of the corona virus - it has found her weakness and exploited it.
The effect it has had on the regard of journalists is one of its more devastating features. Relentless, working 24/7, it has scythed through the reputations of broadcasters.
Any idea that she was ever anything other than biassed, rude and ignorant has never crossed my mind. No-one watches Sky News.
Except the hundreds on PB each day complaining about it!
The displacement activity of docile PB-ers' daily rants against journalists is one of the more unedifying phenomena of the Coronavirus.
As unedifying as us also ranting about politicians daily? Get a grip, people moan on here it happens.
Perfectly ok to moan at anyone you want. Politicians are the ones implementing the policies by which we live. Journalists are the ones trying to hold those politicians to account. People on here, and I get it, they are scared and want to be told what to do, seem not to like the journalists rocking the boat.
I think the frustration that many on here feel is that there are real, serious questions to ask the government and the journalists seem to come up with simplistic variations on the story du jour.
Appreciate that the set up is not conducive to challenging questions, but I wish they were more thoughtful rather than looking for soundbites
I think people want broad brush, primary colour questions and answer atm. I don't think the national psyche is up to too much nuance.
Everyone (certainly on here) might like a knockout question but knockout blows are only delivered after your opponent has been opened up by a series of jabs.
People on here are criticising the jabs saying well it didn't knock them out.
( @kle4 might need your help here if you remember you are PB's analogy assessment chief)
Sure, but all the questions are basically the same.
If journalists could coordinate a bit, or were faster on their feet in developing in an argument then it would be useful
This. Plus, in the age of the internet, hypertext your stories more. If the poor dear public can't be disturbed with too much detail, they can read the top level story. Why not link through to detail, though?
Perhaps the reason is journalists ask the same questions is so their employers can then play the video of their woman asking the minister, and not their rival's man on the spot. This is probably why the government set it up this way. Under the old lobby rules, this did not matter because no-one knew who asked what.
that's 100% why they ask these questions. It's about entertainment not information
Gah. BBC Breakfast berating the Minister about the existential national scandal that each surgical glove is an "item of PPE", and not a *pair* of gloves.
Somebody explain to the divots that they don't come in pairs ... please.
They are generally used in pairs, though.
I suspect the number of one-armed members of NHS ICU could be counted on the fing....I better leave it there.
Austria opening hotels on the 29th May with no heed whatsoever to a common EU position must be causing alarm in Italy, Spain and France who have indicated they will stay closed this year
It cannot be denied, even by the most ardent supporter of the EU, that the EU has been found wanting and exposed to every likelihood that individual nations will continue to take decisions in their own self interest as they work their way through this crisis and beyond
Give it a rest.
Everything’s about “EU failure” to you, it’s quite dull.
You should engage with the argument about how poor the EU has been rather than trying to close down any criticism of the legitimate concerns that it is not fit for purpose
The primary purpose of the EU is to facilitate trade between its members. Dealing with pandemics barely falls within its remit, if it does at all. You might as well criticise NATO for its poor performance on Covid-19!
Unsurprising figure but I'm surprised as many as 7% went for Gove too - as someone who likes Gove. Shows the unreliability of polling respondents to answer the question actually asked.
Gove and Patel simply haven't done that much that's obvious compared to the others during Boris's absence. Their departments are not as key frontline as the others.
Nation likes person who gives them free stuff shock.
Nation likes person who took the risk to react quickly in what was a constructive manner. Given the usual speed of the Treasury when it comes to handing back money, it was a bloody miracle.
Compare and contrast with everyone else in government.
Note he's never once said "we're following the advice of our economists"...
Because that would be an absurd and meaningless phrase that most especially anyone who knows anything about economics would laugh at.
Why would anyone say anything so silly? There are economists for and against almost any action.
The Left in particular are screaming we should have locked down weeks before we did. They just refuse to accept that the science guys knew we wouldn't stick it more than a month or six weeks or so.
That's simply not true, sorry. The polls show support for the lockdown as strong as ever, with more people wanting stricter measures than relaxation.The late lockdown has undoubtedly cost lives.
I know you've been a sceptic about acceptance from the start just as I've felt there would be few problems, and we're probably both extrapolaring from how we and our friends feel (personally I'd be willing to stay indoors in my two-room cottage for a year, say), and I expect the average is somewhere in between. But most people are OK with it for now, and IMO they'd still be OK if it had started a month earlier and our death rate was now down to say 200/day instead of 600.
I agree there is probably some extrapolating on my behalf. My actual situation doesn't involve me going out much in normal times, but I do like to have visitors.
But I am also very concerned about the mental health damage on many people.
Not everyone is happy alone in their homes for weeks on end.
I keep talking about low hanging fruit. Here's one that's screamingly obvious:
How about we don't send people who've contracted covid-19 into care homes. An enclosed environment full of the most vulnerable people to the disease.
Might be a little more expensive, but we've got scads of empty hotels and even the emergency facilities in the Nightingale hospitals are (thank God) not yet being used. Any care home resident who has shown any symptoms or been exposed to covid-19 gets direct personal care in one of those and only returns to a care home when they are tested and confirmed completely free of any virus residue.
I still don't know the answer to this question: when it first became apparent there was an coronavirus epidemic in China, why didn't the government shut the external borders of the country, in conjunction with a strict quarantine for British people seeking to return home?
How about even doing this a few weeks ago? We still haven’t done it.
Are you considering heading back to New Zealand (Even with the strict quarantine to get in) or is that not an option for you now ?
Good question.
It was interesting to see the post earlier about a potential SE Asian “bubble” in which travel is freely permitted. It’s not impossible that NZ and others lead the way out of this mess!
My job (digital tech exec) and to an even greater extent my wife’s (fashion) are high correlated to being in a place like London, and all my wealth is tied up in property (dumb move).
Against that, Britain is not what it was even a few years ago, and the quantum of relative merit does seem to keep moving toward a return to NZ.
We were there over Christmas as we had to seriously ask ourselves why we were returning to London.
I guess a near death experience can change someone.
Dylan's famous bike crash, for example. July 1966. After it he withdrew from the spotlight for months, eventually coming back with "John Wesley Harding" - an album that was strikingly simple and contemplative.
So a quieter, deeper, more reflective "Boris" post Covid?
I personally would like to see that - but I suspect it would cost him most of his fan base. Quiet and reflective is not what floats their boat.
Unsurprising figure but I'm surprised as many as 7% went for Gove too - as someone who likes Gove. Shows the unreliability of polling respondents to answer the question actually asked.
Gove and Patel simply haven't done that much that's obvious compared to the others during Boris's absence. Their departments are not as key frontline as the others.
Nation likes person who gives them free stuff shock.
Nation likes person who took the risk to react quickly in what was a constructive manner. Given the usual speed of the Treasury when it comes to handing back money, it was a bloody miracle.
Compare and contrast with everyone else in government.
Note he's never once said "we're following the advice of our economists"...
Because that would be an absurd and meaningless phrase that most especially anyone who knows anything about economics would laugh at.
Why would anyone say anything so silly? There are economists for and against almost any action.
Of course. But do you think that (for example) behavioural scientists or pandemic modellers form a cozy consensus ?
Austria opening hotels on the 29th May with no heed whatsoever to a common EU position must be causing alarm in Italy, Spain and France who have indicated they will stay closed this year
It cannot be denied, even by the most ardent supporter of the EU, that the EU has been found wanting and exposed to every likelihood that individual nations will continue to take decisions in their own self interest as they work their way through this crisis and beyond
Give it a rest.
Everything’s about “EU failure” to you, it’s quite dull.
You should engage with the argument about how poor the EU has been rather than trying to close down any criticism of the legitimate concerns that it is not fit for purpose
The primary purpose of the EU is to facilitate trade between its members. Dealing with pandemics barely falls within its remit, if it does at all. You might as well criticise NATO for its poor performance on Covid-19!
Spain and Norway got PPE through NATO via the NSPA. Belgian AF did the A400M movements.
I guess a near death experience can change someone.
Dylan's famous bike crash, for example. July 1966. After it he withdrew from the spotlight for months, eventually coming back with "John Wesley Harding" - an album that was strikingly simple and contemplative.
So a quieter, deeper, more reflective "Boris" post Covid?
I personally would like to see that - but I suspect it would cost him most of his fan base. Quiet and reflective is not what floats their boat.
Keep it up with the Dylan references! I am probably his #1 fan on here.
I keep talking about low hanging fruit. Here's one that's screamingly obvious:
How about we don't send people who've contracted covid-19 into care homes. An enclosed environment full of the most vulnerable people to the disease.
Might be a little more expensive, but we've got scads of empty hotels and even the emergency facilities in the Nightingale hospitals are (thank God) not yet being used. Any care home resident who has shown any symptoms or been exposed to covid-19 gets direct personal care in one of those and only returns to a care home when they are tested and confirmed completely free of any virus residue.
I agree. Nightingale's should be used as COVID care homes if need be.
'Infect us with the coronavirus. It could speed up a vaccine.' Some (Most) ethicists balk at the idea of ‘human challenge’ trials. But thousands of people want to volunteer. https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/27/vaccine-infection-volunteer-coronavirus/ ...If it could lead to a speedier creation of a vaccine for the disease covid-19, we are willing — without reservation — to have doctors infect us with the novel coronavirus. Researchers might then see whether a vaccine candidate made any difference. Such tests are known as “human challenge trials,” and while they are ethically controversial in cases where there is no treatment for an illness, they could be warranted in this emergency, if conducted carefully. Through an organization called 1DaySooner, we’ve gathered signatures from nearly 4,000 people in 52 countries who are willing to make the same commitment we are.
Human challenge trials differ from standard vaccine-testing protocols in several important ways. In traditional clinical trials, participants in the crucial “Phase 3” stage, which follows initial testing for safety, proper dosing and other issues, receive either a candidate vaccine or a placebo and then are observed for evidence of infection. But such infections must occur in the course of participants’ daily lives; unfortunately, this takes time — and most participants are unlikely to become infected during the trial. As a result, these trials often have thousands or even tens of thousands of participants and can last many months, on reason the target date for vaccine approval is a year to a year-and-a-half away.
In a human challenge trial, in contrast, researchers deliberately expose trial participants to infection after administering a vaccine. The dose is carefully calibrated to minimize the risk of serious illness, and participants are kept in isolation and monitored closely. Because exposure is guaranteed, these trials can involve about a hundred people per vaccine candidate and results can come weeks after the exposure. The advantage of speed during a pandemic is obvious....
I still don't know the answer to this question: when it first became apparent there was an coronavirus epidemic in China, why didn't the government shut the external borders of the country, in conjunction with a strict quarantine for British people seeking to return home?
I seem to remember you were a strong advocate for idea 'the number of excess deaths due to corona will be so small that the economic damage to lockdown would not be worth it'. That view is incompatible to 'we should have shutting UK borders at a time when there were no cases outside of China'. That would also have had far reaching economic consequences at a time when no-one knew how the local epidemic would progress.
Unsurprising figure but I'm surprised as many as 7% went for Gove too - as someone who likes Gove. Shows the unreliability of polling respondents to answer the question actually asked.
Gove and Patel simply haven't done that much that's obvious compared to the others during Boris's absence. Their departments are not as key frontline as the others.
Nation likes person who gives them free stuff shock.
Nation likes person who took the risk to react quickly in what was a constructive manner. Given the usual speed of the Treasury when it comes to handing back money, it was a bloody miracle.
Compare and contrast with everyone else in government.
Note he's never once said "we're following the advice of our economists"...
Because that would be an absurd and meaningless phrase that most especially anyone who knows anything about economics would laugh at.
Why would anyone say anything so silly? There are economists for and against almost any action.
Of course, the same goes for science. As Prof Brian Cox said to Andrew Marr on Sunday:
"There’s no such thing as ‘the science’, which is a key lesson. If you hear a politician say ‘we’re following the science’, then what that means is they don’t really understand what science is. There isn’t such a thing as ‘the science’. Science is a mindset."
Mr. JohnL, might just be that B&Q hasn't been open for as long and a lot of people want something to do. Meanwhile, the food situation has had time to calm down.
Mr. Enjineeya, ha. Reminds me of 'the science is settled' on global warming.
Unsurprising figure but I'm surprised as many as 7% went for Gove too - as someone who likes Gove. Shows the unreliability of polling respondents to answer the question actually asked.
Gove and Patel simply haven't done that much that's obvious compared to the others during Boris's absence. Their departments are not as key frontline as the others.
Nation likes person who gives them free stuff shock.
Nation likes person who took the risk to react quickly in what was a constructive manner. Given the usual speed of the Treasury when it comes to handing back money, it was a bloody miracle.
Compare and contrast with everyone else in government.
Note he's never once said "we're following the advice of our economists"...
Because that would be an absurd and meaningless phrase that most especially anyone who knows anything about economics would laugh at.
Why would anyone say anything so silly? There are economists for and against almost any action.
Of course, the same goes for science. As Prof Brian Cox said to Andrew Marr on Sunday:
"There’s no such thing as ‘the science’, which is a key lesson. If you hear a politician say ‘we’re following the science’, then what that means is they don’t really understand what science is. There isn’t such a thing as ‘the science’. Science is a mindset."
I wonder if that applies to campaigners on Global Warming, where 'follow the science' is also a mantra.
The Left in particular are screaming we should have locked down weeks before we did. They just refuse to accept that the science guys knew we wouldn't stick it more than a month or six weeks or so.
That's simply not true, sorry. The polls show support for the lockdown as strong as ever, with more people wanting stricter measures than relaxation.The late lockdown has undoubtedly cost lives.
I know you've been a sceptic about acceptance from the start just as I've felt there would be few problems, and we're probably both extrapolaring from how we and our friends feel (personally I'd be willing to stay indoors in my two-room cottage for a year, say), and I expect the average is somewhere in between. But most people are OK with it for now, and IMO they'd still be OK if it had started a month earlier and our death rate was now down to say 200/day instead of 600.
Polls always show support for virtuous things. Polls don't mean squat. Supporting the lockdown in a poll is about as meaningful as supporting other people paying a tax in a poll.
In the real world the lockdown is already starting to fray as people support the lockdown but view more of their own personal actions as essential. Transport usage is already starting to go back up - that is empirically measurable and meaningful in more of a way than a poll is.
The government will be factoring a gradual de facto loosening of lockdown (as people relax their behaviour) into the planning.
"Social distancing could be “abandoned” by the end of this year if decision-makers stopped waiting for a vaccine, an expert claimed.
Professor Hugh Pennington, emeritus professor of bacteriology at Aberdeen University, said he was “reasonably optimistic” that the coronavirus outbreak could be “eradicated” in Britain by Christmas by focusing efforts on a huge increase in testing and tracing."
He makes an excellent point - we can't put all our eggs in the "Vaccine" basket......
I keep talking about low hanging fruit. Here's one that's screamingly obvious:
How about we don't send people who've contracted covid-19 into care homes. An enclosed environment full of the most vulnerable people to the disease.
Might be a little more expensive, but we've got scads of empty hotels and even the emergency facilities in the Nightingale hospitals are (thank God) not yet being used. Any care home resident who has shown any symptoms or been exposed to covid-19 gets direct personal care in one of those and only returns to a care home when they are tested and confirmed completely free of any virus residue.
No it does not seem on the face of it to be a massively difficult issue to resolve. I suppose we must be missing something.
'Infect us with the coronavirus. It could speed up a vaccine.' Some (Most) ethicists balk at the idea of ‘human challenge’ trials. But thousands of people want to volunteer. https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/27/vaccine-infection-volunteer-coronavirus/ ...If it could lead to a speedier creation of a vaccine for the disease covid-19, we are willing — without reservation — to have doctors infect us with the novel coronavirus. Researchers might then see whether a vaccine candidate made any difference. Such tests are known as “human challenge trials,” and while they are ethically controversial in cases where there is no treatment for an illness, they could be warranted in this emergency, if conducted carefully. Through an organization called 1DaySooner, we’ve gathered signatures from nearly 4,000 people in 52 countries who are willing to make the same commitment we are.
Human challenge trials differ from standard vaccine-testing protocols in several important ways. In traditional clinical trials, participants in the crucial “Phase 3” stage, which follows initial testing for safety, proper dosing and other issues, receive either a candidate vaccine or a placebo and then are observed for evidence of infection. But such infections must occur in the course of participants’ daily lives; unfortunately, this takes time — and most participants are unlikely to become infected during the trial. As a result, these trials often have thousands or even tens of thousands of participants and can last many months, on reason the target date for vaccine approval is a year to a year-and-a-half away.
In a human challenge trial, in contrast, researchers deliberately expose trial participants to infection after administering a vaccine. The dose is carefully calibrated to minimize the risk of serious illness, and participants are kept in isolation and monitored closely. Because exposure is guaranteed, these trials can involve about a hundred people per vaccine candidate and results can come weeks after the exposure. The advantage of speed during a pandemic is obvious....
I thought that deliberatly giving a health person a disease is against the Hypocratic Oath, which was why Nobel Prize winner Barry Marshall gave himself Helicobacter Pylori to show that it causes stomach ulcers and not a study subject.
Mr. JohnL, might just be that B&Q hasn't been open for as long and a lot of people want something to do. Meanwhile, the food situation has had time to calm down.
Mr. Enjineeya, ha. Reminds me of 'the science is settled' on global warming.
Marks & Spencers is the place to go if you want to avoid crowds. I know it is a bit more expensive, but there is never a queue in the one local to me.
That certainly is sobering stuff, and of course a potential no-deal Brexit is going to be complicating things even more for the UK. I for one will be maintaining a good cushion of food stocks for a while yet.
This is why simply carrying on as normal as far as possible could be the least worst option. A saying goes "If it ain't broke, don't fix it."
What could go wrong if you shut down half the economy indefinitely and other countries do the same thing at the same time? It is a recipe for a global catastrophe that could be far worse than anything this virus could do to us. The global economy and food supply system is keeping over 7 billion people alive. More than anything else we need to keep it going.
Comments
There's a fair bit of Labour failure and the occasional SNP failure too.
In his May picture, Cliff is in concert and is wearing head to toe denim. Shirt is well open, hair long, big sideburns. Quite raunchy. It catches him in what many feel to be his best period, the mid seventies. Very possible, therefore, that the song he is singing is Devil Woman (1976) - I like to think so anyway.
The NHS hasn't exceeded capacity and unless and until a vaccine we have to operate on the principle that everyone will catch it at some point.
Except for New Zealand I suspect a lot of countries that locked down earlier have only delayed a worse outbreak later.
“The EU is having a bad COVID, and is not fit for purpose”
“The media should not be asking impertinent questions of Boris, Hancock etc; they are not fit for purpose”
“Do not criticise herd immunity, you have no right to question ‘the science’”
“Herd immunity was never the policy”
“The science changed”
“You cannot compare Britain to X.”
“Cummings is nowhere near this”
“Cummings was near this but didn’t say anything”
“Cummings said stuff, but why the hell wouldn’t he?”
“Boris is the great delegator”
“It is clear we need Boris to restore grip to the government”
“Anyway, imagine how Corbyn would be responding”.
The whole speech was almost content free, and packed with meaningless verbiage, which detracted from a necessary message..
You must keep whining that the EU has failed.
Meanwhile, Britain looks to have the most excess deaths per capita in Europe (bar tiny San Marino).
Shops below 800 sq metres are now open. In practice that means most shops, as plenty of bigger shops are also allowed to be open: supermarkets, diy shops, bicycle shops, car dealers, bookshops, baby shops, furniture shops...
I guess it's mainly big clothes shops and electronics shops that are still closed. And bars restaurants etc can only do takeaway still. The brothels are still closed
Secondary schools have already reopened for pupils with exams this year. Next week primary schools reopen, starting with the final year.
It's going to be difficult to find out what is making R rise (if indeed it is, I think it's too early to say). People are generally taking distancing rules a bit less seriously, from what I've seen.
The Left in particular are screaming we should have locked down weeks before we did. They just refuse to accept that the science guys knew we wouldn't stick it more than a month or six weeks or so.
Also might do something to the average honesty level. Gove, Patel, Raab and Johnson himself have above politician normal issues in this respect.
I can see the appeal of wanting to declare victory over Coronavirus in time for VE day, but I think it would likely be premature.
Are some European countries hiding the data? I don’t know. I am referring to the FT analysis from yesterday which was looking at ONS and equivalent figures.
To me, this suggests that seriously ill people in care homes are not being moved to hospital as in the past.
Compare and contrast with everyone else in government.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1254886870049325056
For all the criticism of the Government (in terms of speed of reaction, PPE, and especially care homes), they do seem to have got a lot of the economic response correct.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-27/vaccine-coalition-sees-potential-to-go-even-faster-in-covid-race
Behavioural science has nothing to do with it.
We will eventually learn that locking down earlier would have saved 1,000s of lives.
The scientists and/or the govt - were wrong.
Even a week earlier would have made the task of dealing with the end of lockdown much less complicated, and requiring a fraction of the track and trace we'll now need.
There's an element of hindsight in that, of course, but only an element.
If you can keep the number of cases low enough, then controlling it without further lockdowns becomes quite feasible (see S. Korea).
But I don't think that is the plan. Hence why the minutes from the meetings will not be released.
The truthiness is overwhelming.
There's track and trace which is the middle ground between elimination and herd immunity (Which involves mass deaths to get there).
I don't think the Gov't was going for elimination, track and trace or herd immunity though. It was going for a partially man managed, partially seasonal outbreak containment because it's modelling was based on seasonal bloody flu.
I'd rather another week now, than 3 more weeks in the Summer.
It’s too early to tell.
What we can say is that our measures have often been more complex and piecemeal than in some countries.
I know you've been a sceptic about acceptance from the start just as I've felt there would be few problems, and we're probably both extrapolaring from how we and our friends feel (personally I'd be willing to stay indoors in my two-room cottage for a year, say), and I expect the average is somewhere in between. But most people are OK with it for now, and IMO they'd still be OK if it had started a month earlier and our death rate was now down to say 200/day instead of 600.
Given the lack of testing up until quite recently, it's likely a proportion of those were.
Actually, making appeals to majoritarianism is not very democratic.
But you won’t learn that on Sky News.
That provides universal exculpation apparently.
Yet for all Piers Morgan's daily berating of HMG the Conservatives are currently at 50% in the polls...
My own thoughts have been for a while that if there was a rapid, easy, reliable and ubiquitous test we could put wherever we wanted (before entering stores, restaurants, places of work, sports areas, public transport), we'd beat the virus without any vaccine or treatment.
It may be that such an idealised test system is complete science fiction (or even fantasy - but I've seen more implausible things unfold) and not even necessary - while test-and-trace will inevitably have gaps, maybe there's a level of coverage where it effectively drives down the Rt to a sufficient level (although I fear that we'd find it far more challenging than New Zealand - London is one of the major cross-roads of the world)
Or we could get a vaccine.
Or we could find a reliable treatment.
We still haven’t done it.
In the real world the lockdown is already starting to fray as people support the lockdown but view more of their own personal actions as essential. Transport usage is already starting to go back up - that is empirically measurable and meaningful in more of a way than a poll is.
The underlying intention was good. that's 100% why they ask these questions. It's about entertainment not information
Why would anyone say anything so silly? There are economists for and against almost any action.
But I am also very concerned about the mental health damage on many people.
Not everyone is happy alone in their homes for weeks on end.
How about we don't send people who've contracted covid-19 into care homes. An enclosed environment full of the most vulnerable people to the disease.
Might be a little more expensive, but we've got scads of empty hotels and even the emergency facilities in the Nightingale hospitals are (thank God) not yet being used. Any care home resident who has shown any symptoms or been exposed to covid-19 gets direct personal care in one of those and only returns to a care home when they are tested and confirmed completely free of any virus residue.
It was interesting to see the post earlier about a potential SE Asian “bubble” in which travel is freely permitted. It’s not impossible that NZ and others lead the way out of this mess!
My job (digital tech exec) and to an even greater extent my wife’s (fashion) are high correlated to being in a place like London, and all my wealth is tied up in property (dumb move).
Against that, Britain is not what it was even a few years ago, and the quantum of relative merit does seem to keep moving toward a return to NZ.
We were there over Christmas as we had to seriously ask ourselves why we were returning to London.
Dylan's famous bike crash, for example. July 1966. After it he withdrew from the spotlight for months, eventually coming back with "John Wesley Harding" - an album that was strikingly simple and contemplative.
So a quieter, deeper, more reflective "Boris" post Covid?
I personally would like to see that - but I suspect it would cost him most of his fan base. Quiet and reflective is not what floats their boat.
But do you think that (for example) behavioural scientists or pandemic modellers form a cozy consensus ?
I am probably his #1 fan on here.
Some (Most) ethicists balk at the idea of ‘human challenge’ trials. But thousands of people want to volunteer.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/27/vaccine-infection-volunteer-coronavirus/
...If it could lead to a speedier creation of a vaccine for the disease covid-19, we are willing — without reservation — to have doctors infect us with the novel coronavirus. Researchers might then see whether a vaccine candidate made any difference. Such tests are known as “human challenge trials,” and while they are ethically controversial in cases where there is no treatment for an illness, they could be warranted in this emergency, if conducted carefully. Through an organization called 1DaySooner, we’ve gathered signatures from nearly 4,000 people in 52 countries who are willing to make the same commitment we are.
Human challenge trials differ from standard vaccine-testing protocols in several important ways. In traditional clinical trials, participants in the crucial “Phase 3” stage, which follows initial testing for safety, proper dosing and other issues, receive either a candidate vaccine or a placebo and then are observed for evidence of infection. But such infections must occur in the course of participants’ daily lives; unfortunately, this takes time — and most participants are unlikely to become infected during the trial. As a result, these trials often have thousands or even tens of thousands of participants and can last many months, on reason the target date for vaccine approval is a year to a year-and-a-half away.
In a human challenge trial, in contrast, researchers deliberately expose trial participants to infection after administering a vaccine. The dose is carefully calibrated to minimize the risk of serious illness, and participants are kept in isolation and monitored closely. Because exposure is guaranteed, these trials can involve about a hundred people per vaccine candidate and results can come weeks after the exposure. The advantage of speed during a pandemic is obvious....
"There’s no such thing as ‘the science’, which is a key lesson. If you hear a politician say ‘we’re following the science’, then what that means is they don’t really understand what science is. There isn’t such a thing as ‘the science’. Science is a mindset."
Mr. Enjineeya, ha. Reminds me of 'the science is settled' on global warming.
Just a musing on that...
What could go wrong if you shut down half the economy indefinitely and other countries do the same thing at the same time? It is a recipe for a global catastrophe that could be far worse than anything this virus could do to us. The global economy and food supply system is keeping over 7 billion people alive. More than anything else we need to keep it going.