This is NOT what Doctor Ferguson predicted. It maybe tallies with the mad Israeli professor’s opinion that this disease has a natural ebb and flow, lockdowns are less important than we think
If Sweden does turn out to have had a strategy that has blended freedom, not trashing their economy and protection of their people, the pivoting of some is going to be incredible.
Personally, I think that it will probably turn out that different countries have a differing range of options available to them based on factors like population density, ability to isolate from neighbours, level of travel into a country from elsewhere.
The "personal choice over nanny state" argument, yes, but my understanding is that their economy is likely just as damaged as ours.
If it is just as bad, it near enough, then hopefully the arguments about strategy will be less riotous.
Mr. Richard, that's going to be a murky area. Countries may well measure in different ways and even those doing their best to be transparent and honest will either overestimate or underestimate the impact to some degree.
Disaster. Down to only 1 in 2 of the population is a Conservative.....
Interesting direction of travel though. Were an election actually to be called - even before the economic tsunami arrives - I would be surprised to see the Tories retain as much as half of that poll lead.
An election won't be called, so it's probably not even worth thinking about!
Indeed. We have now reached the 7.5% point of this Parliament were it to last the full term. In the more likely event of an election in May or June 2024 we are at the 8.5% mark!
If Sweden does turn out to have had a strategy that has blended freedom, not trashing their economy and protection of their people, the pivoting of some is going to be incredible.
Personally, I think that it will probably turn out that different countries have a differing range of options available to them based on factors like population density, ability to isolate from neighbours, level of travel into a country from elsewhere.
Yeah, we can't really assume Sweden's model was an option for us, or Belgium, or France/Spain/Italy etc. It's a choice that was open say to Norway or Poland, and it's them Sweden should be compared against. At present they have hugely more deaths (225 per million vs 38 and 15 respectively), but of course the proof of the pudding will be longterm.
Worth noting also that Sweden are being very diligent about covid recording, their stats include everything so are boosted somewhat compared to us, or Spain, or Italy. As a share of excess mortality their reported covid deaths are at 90%.
If Sweden turns out the be right, then the implications for this government are extremely serious.
Their policy will not just be a monstrous folly, it will have been shown to be.
And when Corona importance subsides and we are groaning under the weight of the financial burden, well. I wouldn't want to be in their shoes.
Unsurprising figure but I'm surprised as many as 7% went for Gove too - as someone who likes Gove. Shows the unreliability of polling respondents to answer the question actually asked.
Gove and Patel simply haven't done that much that's obvious compared to the others during Boris's absence. Their departments are not as key frontline as the others.
Nation likes person who gives them free stuff shock.
Nation likes person who took the risk to react quickly in what was a constructive manner. Given the usual speed of the Treasury when it comes to handing back money, it was a bloody miracle.
Compare and contrast with everyone else in government.
Note he's never once said "we're following the advice of our economists"...
Because that would be an absurd and meaningless phrase that most especially anyone who knows anything about economics would laugh at.
Why would anyone say anything so silly? There are economists for and against almost any action.
Of course, the same goes for science. As Prof Brian Cox said to Andrew Marr on Sunday:
"There’s no such thing as ‘the science’, which is a key lesson. If you hear a politician say ‘we’re following the science’, then what that means is they don’t really understand what science is. There isn’t such a thing as ‘the science’. Science is a mindset."
I wonder if that applies to campaigners on Global Warming, where 'follow the science' is also a mantra.
Just a musing on that...
Not accepting that increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere will lead to the warmng of average global temperatures is not just outsider the "cloud of science" it is a hundred miles away.
Arguing that tiny trace volumes of CO2 are the only controlling factor and what the sun is up to is a disctraction seems thousands of miles away.
Increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere 285 ppm to 410 ppm since 1850. That's a 44% increase. Saying the words "tiny trace" just makes you sound like an idiot.
"How can a tiny trace amount of botulinum toxin kill someone?"
Globally over decades the world is certainly outputting a lot of CO2.
The global atmospheric difference in CO2 between the UK going to net zero at a timescale like the government are proposing and the UK going at a timescale XR propose is a tiny trace difference.
Brexiteer= Climate change denier. What a surprise. Had enough of experts? Support Brexit and any other idiots charter that is in vogue with the pseudoscience Trumpian populist right wing.
A venn diagram of Trump fans/ Brexiteers/ climate change deniers/ end-lockdown-now advocates would show a great deal of overlap.
I've got no overlap.
Despise Trump and hopes he loses, want climate change tackling sensibly, think the lockdown needs to be ended when the time is right but not yet and Brexiteer. So one of your 4.
I have noted a persistent theme - that all Brexiters must be Trump supporters. Despite polling that indicates virtually no-one in the UK has any time for him.
I think this is largely true now. Didn't used to be, but as the awful reality of him as POTUS has dawned on anybody with a brain or a moral compass it has left him with few genuine supporters here in the UK other than the bona fide racist hard right. One does still hear the "awful but better than Hillary" sentiment around, though. Certainly I hear that more than I would like - which is never - from ostensibly OKish individuals.
That looks like a large and over-imaginative claim. Polling suggests that the numbers have not changed ie Split down the middle, with about 10% don't knows.
Just watched the panorama program. Pretty damning. Overtaking other countries on deaths is also going to be very damaging to the govt if/when it happens.
Bill from Brighton - What films / tv shows did Boris watch while recovering? Why are deaths up? Why isn't lockdown working? When will lockdown end? People are confused about lockdown, why is the government message so poor? Peston....blah blah blah...5 mins later...is because you are useless isn't it? Why are deaths in care home rapidly increasing?
This is NOT what Doctor Ferguson predicted. It maybe tallies with the mad Israeli professor’s opinion that this disease has a natural ebb and flow, lockdowns are less important than we think
If Sweden does turn out to have had a strategy that has blended freedom, not trashing their economy and protection of their people, the pivoting of some is going to be incredible.
Personally, I think that it will probably turn out that different countries have a differing range of options available to them based on factors like population density, ability to isolate from neighbours, level of travel into a country from elsewhere.
The "personal choice over nanny state" argument, yes, but my understanding is that their economy is likely just as damaged as ours.
Yes, their GDP is expected to shrink by 10%. It is export-oriented
However, what they have avoided is the mental and physical health impact of stricter lockdown. Much less isolation.
Though there is the mental health impact of losing loved ones through excess and avoidable Covid deaths, and the physical health impact of being, well, dead.
Prof Cowley is absolutely right. That pattern of that campaign had Labour in the low 30s and Tories high 30s, then the Cleggasm, before a fairly long, stable period of Labour in the high 20s, Tories mid 30s, Lib Dems mid 20s. Bigot-gate was fairly late on, right before the final leadership debate when things were very stable. It had zero perceptible effect.
It's very easy to believe that events that stick in the memory are game-changers, and to mythologise them. But often it doesn't stand up, and this is an example.
One thing I wonder about with that case, though, is how it would have played if Brown hadn't been so grovellingly apologetic. There's some question as to whether he'd have been better gambling that quite a few people were broadly sympathetic to him but thought he was rather weak in his response and voted Lib Dem. It wasn't uncommon at the time for people to say, "I know her sort... not sure about 'bigot', but 'sour old bat' wouldn't be far wrong". That might well be unfair to Mrs Duffy, by the way, who may be quite charming. But she didn't come across as that lovable a character in the exchange. Probably wouldn't have made much difference, or may have been worse, but we'll never know.
Bigotgate was the only time I heard politics discussed at work in the 2010GE.
I know its always been fashionable for middle class types to claim it had no effect or that it made them more favourable to Gordon Brown but in reality in cost Labour working class votes.
I'd estimate it gave the Conservatives another 5-10 MPs in 2010.
On what basis would you estimate that, looking at the polls before and after 28 April 2010?
Aren't you basing your view on anecdote from your office rather than solid evidence? I am also fairly surprised that Bigotgate was the ONLY time you heard politics discussed in the 2010 General Election. It was a memorable event from the campaign, for sure, but more impactful than the first leadership debate and aftermath? I seriously doubt it.
I'm sure you're right some people didn't vote Labour who would have done as a result of it. That's true for most memorable events. But were the numbers large and were they balanced by people who might otherwise have voted Lib Dem and rather liked the fact Brown had reacted in a fairly human way to someone who quite a lot of people saw as rather an unsympathetic character.
I guess you could make a case that it was a distraction just when Labour didn't need it, putting them on the back foot just at the moment they were going to make their move with a few days to go. And it's true that, when you're behind, you don't want to run down the clock with damage limitation work. But it's not clear what that move was going to be - as I say, the polls were really pretty stable from the second debate right through to polling day.
If a few people voted Labour instead of LibDem (and I have doubts about that) then where did that happen ? Oxford or Cambridge or Islington South or Edinburgh South.
So no damage to the Conservatives there - in fact a shift from LibDems to Labour in Oxford West would have benefited the Conservatives there.
Now go and look at the Conservative majorities in the likes of Warwickshire N, Cambourne, Thurrock, Sherwood, Lancaster, Morecambe and possibly Hendon and Cardiff North.
5-10 fewer Conservative MPs and the numbers game becomes different after the election.
As to the polls, there are a multitude of factors which affect them, some giving a boost to one side others to another.
And if you remove bigotgate then Labour would have done better in the polls, in particular in would have done better in many places where it needed to do better.
If Sweden does turn out to have had a strategy that has blended freedom, not trashing their economy and protection of their people, the pivoting of some is going to be incredible.
Personally, I think that it will probably turn out that different countries have a differing range of options available to them based on factors like population density, ability to isolate from neighbours, level of travel into a country from elsewhere.
Yeah, we can't really assume Sweden's model was an option for us, or Belgium, or France/Spain/Italy etc. It's a choice that was open say to Norway or Poland, and it's them Sweden should be compared against. At present they have hugely more deaths (225 per million vs 38 and 15 respectively), but of course the proof of the pudding will be longterm.
Worth noting also that Sweden are being very diligent about covid recording, their stats include everything so are boosted somewhat compared to us, or Spain, or Italy. As a share of excess mortality their reported covid deaths are at 90%.
If Sweden turns out the be right, then the implications for this government are extremely serious.
Their policy will not just be a monstrous folly, it will have been shown to be.
And when Corona importance subsides and we are groaning under the weight of the financial burden, well. I wouldn't want to be in their shoes.
Not now or in history.
The only politician in the UK advocating a lighter touch lockdown was Boris, it was the opponents of the government that wanted a harder and faster lockdown. Even if you think Boris imposed to tight a lockdown, who do you vote for? There is no one to the "laissez faire" side of him
The only valid criticism of Boris would be that he didn't stick to his "herd immunity" guns, but no one from any of the other UK parties could legitimately level that criticism at him given their own positions
Will be under 600 then across the UK for today - still awful, but the lowest non-weekend biased figure this month. So confirmation that the decreasing trend is likely continuing.
Bill from Brighton - What films / tv shows did Boris watch while recovering? Why are deaths up? Why isn't lockdown working? When will lockdown end? People are confused about lockdown, why is the government message so poor? Peston....blah blah blah...5 mins later...is because you are useless isn't it? Why are deaths in care home rapidly increasing?
Great questions all.
I'm sorry that your questions weren't chosen yesterday. And also I'm sorry that you chose not to be a journalist (the nation's loss). And that you decided not to be a politician (even greater loss). Delighted that you did choose to be an internet guy who could sort it all out if only given the chance (our benefit).
Bill from Brighton - What films / tv shows did Boris watch while recovering? Why are deaths up? Why isn't lockdown working? When will lockdown end? People are confused about lockdown, why is the government message so poor? Peston....blah blah blah...5 mins later...is because you are useless isn't it? Why are deaths in care home rapidly increasing?
Great questions all.
I'm sorry that your questions weren't chosen yesterday. And also I'm sorry that you chose not to be a journalist (the nation's loss). And that you decided not to be a politician (even greater loss). Delighted that you did choose to be an internet guy who could sort it all out if only given the chance (our benefit).
I am bloody hoping somebody asks about the app. There are huge issues with this from the privacy aspect of centralising the data to choosing to not go with the Google / Apple APIs.
Other than Germany the big european states seem pretty similar.
Poland is quite big too, and they have 20% of Germany's deaths/capita. Or Romania vs Netherlands, similar population but 650 deaths vs 4518 (or 9k excess) .... and Romania is doing badly compared to its neighbours.
It seems to be geographically-defined more than anything. Western Europe got spanked, the excess mortality for all of us is pretty similar. Meanwhile, eastern Europe is almost untouched, with death rates 20x lower than us very common.
If Sweden does turn out to have had a strategy that has blended freedom, not trashing their economy and protection of their people, the pivoting of some is going to be incredible.
Personally, I think that it will probably turn out that different countries have a differing range of options available to them based on factors like population density, ability to isolate from neighbours, level of travel into a country from elsewhere.
Yeah, we can't really assume Sweden's model was an option for us, or Belgium, or France/Spain/Italy etc. It's a choice that was open say to Norway or Poland, and it's them Sweden should be compared against. At present they have hugely more deaths (225 per million vs 38 and 15 respectively), but of course the proof of the pudding will be longterm.
Worth noting also that Sweden are being very diligent about covid recording, their stats include everything so are boosted somewhat compared to us, or Spain, or Italy. As a share of excess mortality their reported covid deaths are at 90%.
If Sweden turns out the be right, then the implications for this government are extremely serious.
Their policy will not just be a monstrous folly, it will have been shown to be.
And when Corona importance subsides and we are groaning under the weight of the financial burden, well. I wouldn't want to be in their shoes.
Not now or in history.
The only politician in the UK advocating a lighter touch lockdown was Boris, it was the opponents of the government that wanted a harder and faster lockdown. Even if you think Boris imposed to tight a lockdown, who do you vote for? There is no one to the "laissez faire" side of him
The only valid criticism of Boris would be that he didn't stick to his "herd immunity" guns, but no one from any of the other UK parties could legitimately level that criticism at him given their own positions
Politics doesn’t work like that, though, does it?
The Tories weren’t criticising Labour for not regulating the banking industry sufficiently, in the run up to the financial crisis. No, they were urging more deregulation.
Good to have the new figures in a different colour
The line suggests the peak was 15/16th really doesn't it? I thought I saw that they started having people die of Covid a week later than the UK on @Alistair's graph earlier, so that would make sense
One of the nuggets that doesn't seem to have been picked up on. The Icelandic guy behind the Recode project says he believes CV was much more widespread in the UK and before it was really known about.
That is a tragedy, but it ain’t a war. Meanwhile, millions of Swedes will have gained, psychologically, economically and physically, from avoiding a harder lockdown
"A single death is a tragedy; a million deaths is a statistic." - Stalin.
Unsurprising figure but I'm surprised as many as 7% went for Gove too - as someone who likes Gove. Shows the unreliability of polling respondents to answer the question actually asked.
Gove and Patel simply haven't done that much that's obvious compared to the others during Boris's absence. Their departments are not as key frontline as the others.
Nation likes person who gives them free stuff shock.
Nation likes person who took the risk to react quickly in what was a constructive manner. Given the usual speed of the Treasury when it comes to handing back money, it was a bloody miracle.
Compare and contrast with everyone else in government.
Note he's never once said "we're following the advice of our economists"...
Because that would be an absurd and meaningless phrase that most especially anyone who knows anything about economics would laugh at.
Why would anyone say anything so silly? There are economists for and against almost any action.
Of course, the same goes for science. As Prof Brian Cox said to Andrew Marr on Sunday:
"There’s no such thing as ‘the science’, which is a key lesson. If you hear a politician say ‘we’re following the science’, then what that means is they don’t really understand what science is. There isn’t such a thing as ‘the science’. Science is a mindset."
I wonder if that applies to campaigners on Global Warming, where 'follow the science' is also a mantra.
Just a musing on that...
Not accepting that increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere will lead to the warmng of average global temperatures is not just outsider the "cloud of science" it is a hundred miles away.
Arguing that tiny trace volumes of CO2 are the only controlling factor and what the sun is up to is a disctraction seems thousands of miles away.
Increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere 285 ppm to 410 ppm since 1850. That's a 44% increase. Saying the words "tiny trace" just makes you sound like an idiot.
"How can a tiny trace amount of botulinum toxin kill someone?"
Globally over decades the world is certainly outputting a lot of CO2.
The global atmospheric difference in CO2 between the UK going to net zero at a timescale like the government are proposing and the UK going at a timescale XR propose is a tiny trace difference.
Brexiteer= Climate change denier. What a surprise. Had enough of experts? Support Brexit and any other idiots charter that is in vogue with the pseudoscience Trumpian populist right wing.
A venn diagram of Trump fans/ Brexiteers/ climate change deniers/ end-lockdown-now advocates would show a great deal of overlap.
This is NOT what Doctor Ferguson predicted. It maybe tallies with the mad Israeli professor’s opinion that this disease has a natural ebb and flow, lockdowns are less important than we think
If Sweden does turn out to have had a strategy that has blended freedom, not trashing their economy and protection of their people, the pivoting of some is going to be incredible.
Personally, I think that it will probably turn out that different countries have a differing range of options available to them based on factors like population density, ability to isolate from neighbours, level of travel into a country from elsewhere.
The "personal choice over nanny state" argument, yes, but my understanding is that their economy is likely just as damaged as ours.
Yes, their GDP is expected to shrink by 10%. It is export-oriented
However, what they have avoided is the mental and physical health impact of stricter lockdown. Much less isolation.
Though there is the mental health impact of losing loved ones through excess and avoidable Covid deaths, and the physical health impact of being, well, dead.
They may avoid many deaths by not having further waves due to herd immunity.
Bill from Brighton - What films / tv shows did Boris watch while recovering? Why are deaths up? Why isn't lockdown working? When will lockdown end? People are confused about lockdown, why is the government message so poor? Peston....blah blah blah...5 mins later...is because you are useless isn't it? Why are deaths in care home rapidly increasing?
Great questions all.
I'm sorry that your questions weren't chosen yesterday. And also I'm sorry that you chose not to be a journalist (the nation's loss). And that you decided not to be a politician (even greater loss). Delighted that you did choose to be an internet guy who could sort it all out if only given the chance (our benefit).
I am bloody hoping somebody asks about the app. There are huge issues with this from the privacy aspect of centralising the data to choosing to not go with the Google / Apple APIs.
If Sweden does turn out to have had a strategy that has blended freedom, not trashing their economy and protection of their people, the pivoting of some is going to be incredible.
Personally, I think that it will probably turn out that different countries have a differing range of options available to them based on factors like population density, ability to isolate from neighbours, level of travel into a country from elsewhere.
Yeah, we can't really assume Sweden's model was an option for us, or Belgium, or France/Spain/Italy etc. It's a choice that was open say to Norway or Poland, and it's them Sweden should be compared against. At present they have hugely more deaths (225 per million vs 38 and 15 respectively), but of course the proof of the pudding will be longterm.
Worth noting also that Sweden are being very diligent about covid recording, their stats include everything so are boosted somewhat compared to us, or Spain, or Italy. As a share of excess mortality their reported covid deaths are at 90%.
If Sweden turns out the be right, then the implications for this government are extremely serious.
Their policy will not just be a monstrous folly, it will have been shown to be.
And when Corona importance subsides and we are groaning under the weight of the financial burden, well. I wouldn't want to be in their shoes.
Not now or in history.
The only politician in the UK advocating a lighter touch lockdown was Boris, it was the opponents of the government that wanted a harder and faster lockdown. Even if you think Boris imposed to tight a lockdown, who do you vote for? There is no one to the "laissez faire" side of him
The only valid criticism of Boris would be that he didn't stick to his "herd immunity" guns, but no one from any of the other UK parties could legitimately level that criticism at him given their own positions
Politics doesn’t work like that, though, does it?
The Tories weren’t criticising Labour for not regulating the banking industry sufficiently, in the run up to the financial crisis. No, they were urging more deregulation.
Its a shame you only see things in black and white. The country didn't need "more regulations" it wasn't the lack of "sufficient" regulations that caused the problems.
Other than Germany the big european states seem pretty similar.
Poland is quite big too, and they have 20% of Germany's deaths/capita. Or Romania vs Netherlands, similar population but 650 deaths vs 4518 (or 9k excess).
It seems to be geographically-defined more than anything. Western Europe got spanked, the excess mortality for all of us is pretty similar. Meanwhile, eastern Europe is almost untouched, with death rates 20x lower than us very common.
Rich super spreaders don't return to Eastern Europe, nor go there to attend Super Spreading events?
Other than Germany the big european states seem pretty similar.
By the end of May I suspect we will have the most deaths of any European Country
It will be a close run thing between all the big Western European nations, Germany excluded
Worth noting that France and the UK have similar large populations - nearly 70 million - and are bigger than Italy and much bigger than Spain, so you’d expect the first two nations to be at the top.
Makes sense. Youd hope, as a big nation, to do better than the rest like Germany, but if you dont youd expect to be near the top on totals. Actually being top would play very badly for the government though.
If Sweden does turn out to have had a strategy that has blended freedom, not trashing their economy and protection of their people, the pivoting of some is going to be incredible.
Personally, I think that it will probably turn out that different countries have a differing range of options available to them based on factors like population density, ability to isolate from neighbours, level of travel into a country from elsewhere.
Yeah, we can't really assume Sweden's model was an option for us, or Belgium, or France/Spain/Italy etc. It's a choice that was open say to Norway or Poland, and it's them Sweden should be compared against. At present they have hugely more deaths (225 per million vs 38 and 15 respectively), but of course the proof of the pudding will be longterm.
Worth noting also that Sweden are being very diligent about covid recording, their stats include everything so are boosted somewhat compared to us, or Spain, or Italy. As a share of excess mortality their reported covid deaths are at 90%.
If Sweden turns out the be right, then the implications for this government are extremely serious.
Their policy will not just be a monstrous folly, it will have been shown to be.
And when Corona importance subsides and we are groaning under the weight of the financial burden, well. I wouldn't want to be in their shoes.
Not now or in history.
The only politician in the UK advocating a lighter touch lockdown was Boris, it was the opponents of the government that wanted a harder and faster lockdown. Even if you think Boris imposed to tight a lockdown, who do you vote for? There is no one to the "laissez faire" side of him
The only valid criticism of Boris would be that he didn't stick to his "herd immunity" guns, but no one from any of the other UK parties could legitimately level that criticism at him given their own positions
Politics doesn’t work like that, though, does it?
The Tories weren’t criticising Labour for not regulating the banking industry sufficiently, in the run up to the financial crisis. No, they were urging more deregulation.
Indeed. They weren't criticizing Labour for overspending either. But when it went tits up it was "Labour's mess".
Other than Germany the big european states seem pretty similar.
Poland is quite big too, and they have 20% of Germany's deaths/capita. Or Romania vs Netherlands, similar population but 650 deaths vs 4518 (or 9k excess).
It seems to be geographically-defined more than anything. Western Europe got spanked, the excess mortality for all of us is pretty similar. Meanwhile, eastern Europe is almost untouched, with death rates 20x lower than us very common.
Geography has has obviously had some impact, with the virus spreading more slowly in less urbanised countries. But so too has the speed and tightness of lockdowns. In general, countries that locked down quicker and tighter have suffered fewer deaths (so far).
Bill from Brighton - What films / tv shows did Boris watch while recovering? Why are deaths up? Why isn't lockdown working? When will lockdown end? People are confused about lockdown, why is the government message so poor? Peston....blah blah blah...5 mins later...is because you are useless isn't it? Why are deaths in care home rapidly increasing?
Great questions all.
I'm sorry that your questions weren't chosen yesterday. And also I'm sorry that you chose not to be a journalist (the nation's loss). And that you decided not to be a politician (even greater loss). Delighted that you did choose to be an internet guy who could sort it all out if only given the chance (our benefit).
I am bloody hoping somebody asks about the app. There are huge issues with this from the privacy aspect of centralising the data to choosing to not go with the Google / Apple APIs.
Experience of the NHS getting something techie specifically designed for it isn't good. And how happy are Apple/Google going to be that there's going to be an app for their phones with that provenance?
Bill from Brighton - What films / tv shows did Boris watch while recovering? Why are deaths up? Why isn't lockdown working? When will lockdown end? People are confused about lockdown, why is the government message so poor? Peston....blah blah blah...5 mins later...is because you are useless isn't it? Why are deaths in care home rapidly increasing?
Great questions all.
I'm sorry that your questions weren't chosen yesterday. And also I'm sorry that you chose not to be a journalist (the nation's loss). And that you decided not to be a politician (even greater loss). Delighted that you did choose to be an internet guy who could sort it all out if only given the chance (our benefit).
I am bloody hoping somebody asks about the app. There are huge issues with this from the privacy aspect of centralising the data to choosing to not go with the Google / Apple APIs.
Experience of the NHS getting something techie specifically designed for it isn't good. And how happy are Apple/Google going to be that there's going to be an app for their phones with that provenance?
Hopefully they use the same private sector crew that did the furlough work - seems to have gone ok.
If Sweden does turn out to have had a strategy that has blended freedom, not trashing their economy and protection of their people, the pivoting of some is going to be incredible.
Personally, I think that it will probably turn out that different countries have a differing range of options available to them based on factors like population density, ability to isolate from neighbours, level of travel into a country from elsewhere.
Yeah, we can't really assume Sweden's model was an option for us, or Belgium, or France/Spain/Italy etc. It's a choice that was open say to Norway or Poland, and it's them Sweden should be compared against. At present they have hugely more deaths (225 per million vs 38 and 15 respectively), but of course the proof of the pudding will be longterm.
Worth noting also that Sweden are being very diligent about covid recording, their stats include everything so are boosted somewhat compared to us, or Spain, or Italy. As a share of excess mortality their reported covid deaths are at 90%.
If Sweden turns out the be right, then the implications for this government are extremely serious.
Their policy will not just be a monstrous folly, it will have been shown to be.
And when Corona importance subsides and we are groaning under the weight of the financial burden, well. I wouldn't want to be in their shoes.
Not now or in history.
The only politician in the UK advocating a lighter touch lockdown was Boris, it was the opponents of the government that wanted a harder and faster lockdown. Even if you think Boris imposed to tight a lockdown, who do you vote for? There is no one to the "laissez faire" side of him
The only valid criticism of Boris would be that he didn't stick to his "herd immunity" guns, but no one from any of the other UK parties could legitimately level that criticism at him given their own positions
Politics doesn’t work like that, though, does it?
The Tories weren’t criticising Labour for not regulating the banking industry sufficiently, in the run up to the financial crisis. No, they were urging more deregulation.
Be that as it may, it will be interesting to see Starmer, Sturgeon, etc trying to criticise Boris for imposing too many lockdown restrictions too quickly
One of the nuggets that doesn't seem to have been picked up on. The Icelandic guy behind the Recode project says he believes CV was much more widespread in the UK and before it was really known about.
I think that's right.
The UK was never as far behind in the cycle as Italy, Spain, Germany etc as the scientists thought.
And then that gap narrowed even further through the lack of restrictions of entry to the UK.
Bill from Brighton - What films / tv shows did Boris watch while recovering? Why are deaths up? Why isn't lockdown working? When will lockdown end? People are confused about lockdown, why is the government message so poor? Peston....blah blah blah...5 mins later...is because you are useless isn't it? Why are deaths in care home rapidly increasing?
Great questions all.
I'm sorry that your questions weren't chosen yesterday. And also I'm sorry that you chose not to be a journalist (the nation's loss). And that you decided not to be a politician (even greater loss). Delighted that you did choose to be an internet guy who could sort it all out if only given the chance (our benefit).
I am bloody hoping somebody asks about the app. There are huge issues with this from the privacy aspect of centralising the data to choosing to not go with the Google / Apple APIs.
Experience of the NHS getting something techie specifically designed for it isn't good. And how happy are Apple/Google going to be that there's going to be an app for their phones with that provenance?
Among a lot of other worries, hearing that GCHQ had to be used to find a loophole in Apple IoS to allow a particular functionality, which isn't supposed to be possible. Great, until Apple patch their OS....And we Apple don't like anybody trying to exploit loopholes, even for supposed good, so I can absolutely see them doing it.
I don't imagine this being completely uncontroversial...
Modeling COVID-19 Growing Trends to Reveal the Differences in the Effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions among Countries in the World https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.22.20075846v1 ...We hypothesize that COVID-19 case growth data reveals the efficacy of NPIs. In this study, we conduct a secondary analysis of COVID-19 case growth data to compare the differences in the effectiveness of NPIs among 16 representative countries in the world. Methods: This study leverages publicly available data to learn patterns of dynamic changes in the reproduction rate for sixteen countries covering Asia, Europe, North America, South America, Australia, and Africa. Furthermore, we model the relationships between the cumulative number of cases and the dynamic reproduction rate to characterize the effectiveness of the NPIs. We learn four levels of NPIs according to their effects in the control of COVID-19 growth and categorize the 16 countries into the corresponding groups. Results: The dynamic changes of the reproduction rate are learned via linear regression models for all of the studied countries, with the average adjusted R-squared at 0.96 and the 95% confidence interval as [0.94 0.98]. China, South Korea, Argentina, and Australia are at the first level of NPIs, which are the most effective. Japan and Egypt are at the second level of NPIs, and Italy, Germany, France, Netherlands, and Spain, are at the third level. The US and UK have the most inefficient NPIs, and they are at the fourth level of NPIs. Conclusions: COVID-19 case growth data provides evidence to demonstrate the effectiveness of the NPIs. Understanding the differences in the efficacy of the NPIs among countries in the world can give guidance for emergent public health events....
Other than Germany the big european states seem pretty similar.
Poland is quite big too, and they have 20% of Germany's deaths/capita. Or Romania vs Netherlands, similar population but 650 deaths vs 4518 (or 9k excess).
It seems to be geographically-defined more than anything. Western Europe got spanked, the excess mortality for all of us is pretty similar. Meanwhile, eastern Europe is almost untouched, with death rates 20x lower than us very common.
An analysis of why the virus has affected some countries much more than others will be interesting in a years time. Whilst they are some obvious reasons such as dense population and transport hubs there are some have been affected massively which are none of those such as Iran and Ecuador and others such as India and Pakistan has so far not been badly affected. Africa is also not badly affected and as for Vietnam I really have no idea.
Other than Germany the big european states seem pretty similar.
Poland is quite big too, and they have 20% of Germany's deaths/capita. Or Romania vs Netherlands, similar population but 650 deaths vs 4518 (or 9k excess) .... and Romania is doing badly compared to its neighbours.
It seems to be geographically-defined more than anything. Western Europe got spanked, the excess mortality for all of us is pretty similar. Meanwhile, eastern Europe is almost untouched, with death rates 20x lower than us very common.
Unless we find a vaccine or amazing treatments (unlikely before 2021) then it is probable the Ronavirus will hit Eastern Europe, big time, this coming winter. With some poor health systems, lots of air pollution, and severe winter weather, it could be grim. And another lockdown would demolish their economies.
Compare the transport rate and links between China and Northern Italy and then Poland. Of course they havent been hit.
But, we will have to revisit this in a year or two. Prof Ferguson thinks Swedish deaths will just keep on rising, relentlessly, because their R0 will stay stubbornly over 1
What might be happening there is that they're already below the Rt needed to see infections drop. The ICL model has them at Rt 1.14 [0.94-1.35] as of yesterday, and if they're at say 20% already infected and immune, anything below Rt of 1.25 is golden (it's apparently more complicated than that, but just as a rule of thumb).
The interesting thing about the Labour figure is that it's only 3 points less than the party polled the last time they won an election in 2005 (with a 66 seat majority).
The main movement since the general election seems to be LD and Brexit Party to Tory, Labour largely unchanged
If Sweden does turn out to have had a strategy that has blended freedom, not trashing their economy and protection of their people, the pivoting of some is going to be incredible.
Personally, I think that it will probably turn out that different countries have a differing range of options available to them based on factors like population density, ability to isolate from neighbours, level of travel into a country from elsewhere.
Yeah, we can't really assume Sweden's model was an option for us, or Belgium, or France/Spain/Italy etc. It's a choice that was open say to Norway or Poland, and it's them Sweden should be compared against. At present they have hugely more deaths (225 per million vs 38 and 15 respectively), but of course the proof of the pudding will be longterm.
Worth noting also that Sweden are being very diligent about covid recording, their stats include everything so are boosted somewhat compared to us, or Spain, or Italy. As a share of excess mortality their reported covid deaths are at 90%.
If Sweden turns out the be right, then the implications for this government are extremely serious.
Their policy will not just be a monstrous folly, it will have been shown to be.
And when Corona importance subsides and we are groaning under the weight of the financial burden, well. I wouldn't want to be in their shoes.
Not now or in history.
The only politician in the UK advocating a lighter touch lockdown was Boris, it was the opponents of the government that wanted a harder and faster lockdown. Even if you think Boris imposed to tight a lockdown, who do you vote for? There is no one to the "laissez faire" side of him
The only valid criticism of Boris would be that he didn't stick to his "herd immunity" guns, but no one from any of the other UK parties could legitimately level that criticism at him given their own positions
Politics doesn’t work like that, though, does it?
The Tories weren’t criticising Labour for not regulating the banking industry sufficiently, in the run up to the financial crisis. No, they were urging more deregulation.
Its a shame you only see things in black and white. The country didn't need "more regulations" it wasn't the lack of "sufficient" regulations that caused the problems.
Nearly 4,000 people worked for FSA, and yet all kinds of stuff went badly wrong on their watch. Equitable Life, PPI, Northern Rock, and of course the financial crash itself. Lots of regulations, and lots of regulators, but not much good.
Contrary to the Header my vibes are not that lockdown is set to be eased. I am fortunate enough to have a Sir Cliff Richard calendar on the kitchen wall and I have marked the end of UK lockdown on there. 28th May. The balance of political risk steers to keeping it until then.
In his May picture, Cliff is in concert and is wearing head to toe denim. Shirt is well open, hair long, big sideburns. Quite raunchy. It catches him in what many feel to be his best period, the mid seventies. Very possible, therefore, that the song he is singing is Devil Woman (1976) - I like to think so anyway.
Miss You Nights, surely?
I watched the video to "Daddy's Home" on Youtube last week.. and sang along! (to the title bit, I don't know the words)
The hidden toll of lockdown on people's lives. Real people. Real lives.
Haha
I watched a few Roger Waters interviews to redress the balance!
- yes I can imagine you liking him.
HIM, I mean, not necessarily his music. He has a trad WC 1950s vibe. Salt of the earth blended with a touch of the spiritual
Looks uncannily like Richard Gere? Well, yes, there's that too. But Waters came first so any charge of copycat would be ridiculous.
I like both him and his music. I used to obsessively love the early Pink Floyd of which he had little writing involvement, and I can barely listen to now (although played The Gnome to our 6 month old son the other day) , and now prefer the albums he more or less wrote on his own, Dark Side to The Final Cut. The Wall is a masterpiece.
He is a massive lefty politically, I think.
Looks wise he has matured like a fine wine... from actually ugly in his twenties and thirties, to genuinely handsome in his seventies.
Roger Water's politics are summed up in the vicious but brilliant track Pigs (Three Different Ones)" from Animals released in 1977 where Mary Whitehouse among others was targeted.
Big man, pig man Ha ha, charade you are
A certain D Trump would be in his sights today one suspects
Other than Germany the big european states seem pretty similar.
Poland is quite big too, and they have 20% of Germany's deaths/capita. Or Romania vs Netherlands, similar population but 650 deaths vs 4518 (or 9k excess).
It seems to be geographically-defined more than anything. Western Europe got spanked, the excess mortality for all of us is pretty similar. Meanwhile, eastern Europe is almost untouched, with death rates 20x lower than us very common.
Vietnam I really have no idea.
Vietnam population of males over 65 is a 1/3 of the Uk.
If Sweden does turn out to have had a strategy that has blended freedom, not trashing their economy and protection of their people, the pivoting of some is going to be incredible.
Personally, I think that it will probably turn out that different countries have a differing range of options available to them based on factors like population density, ability to isolate from neighbours, level of travel into a country from elsewhere.
Yeah, we can't really assume Sweden's model was an option for us, or Belgium, or France/Spain/Italy etc. It's a choice that was open say to Norway or Poland, and it's them Sweden should be compared against. At present they have hugely more deaths (225 per million vs 38 and 15 respectively), but of course the proof of the pudding will be longterm.
Worth noting also that Sweden are being very diligent about covid recording, their stats include everything so are boosted somewhat compared to us, or Spain, or Italy. As a share of excess mortality their reported covid deaths are at 90%.
If Sweden turns out the be right, then the implications for this government are extremely serious.
Their policy will not just be a monstrous folly, it will have been shown to be.
And when Corona importance subsides and we are groaning under the weight of the financial burden, well. I wouldn't want to be in their shoes.
Not now or in history.
The only politician in the UK advocating a lighter touch lockdown was Boris, it was the opponents of the government that wanted a harder and faster lockdown. Even if you think Boris imposed to tight a lockdown, who do you vote for? There is no one to the "laissez faire" side of him
The only valid criticism of Boris would be that he didn't stick to his "herd immunity" guns, but no one from any of the other UK parties could legitimately level that criticism at him given their own positions
Politics doesn’t work like that, though, does it?
The Tories weren’t criticising Labour for not regulating the banking industry sufficiently, in the run up to the financial crisis. No, they were urging more deregulation.
Be that as it may, it will be interesting to see Starmer, Sturgeon, etc trying to criticise Boris for imposing too many lockdown restrictions too quickly
Why would they do that? The obvious line of attack is that his initial dithering about imposing a lockdown has led to us having a longer lockdown than otherwise necessary with all the consequences that that entails.
Other than Germany the big european states seem pretty similar.
Poland is quite big too, and they have 20% of Germany's deaths/capita. Or Romania vs Netherlands, similar population but 650 deaths vs 4518 (or 9k excess).
It seems to be geographically-defined more than anything. Western Europe got spanked, the excess mortality for all of us is pretty similar. Meanwhile, eastern Europe is almost untouched, with death rates 20x lower than us very common.
Vietnam I really have no idea.
Vietnam population of males over 65 is a 1/3 of the Uk.
Long Communist backed civil wars will do that.
Seems a bit of an extreme way of solving the social care problem.
If Sweden does turn out to have had a strategy that has blended freedom, not trashing their economy and protection of their people, the pivoting of some is going to be incredible.
Personally, I think that it will probably turn out that different countries have a differing range of options available to them based on factors like population density, ability to isolate from neighbours, level of travel into a country from elsewhere.
Yeah, we can't really assume Sweden's model was an option for us, or Belgium, or France/Spain/Italy etc. It's a choice that was open say to Norway or Poland, and it's them Sweden should be compared against. At present they have hugely more deaths (225 per million vs 38 and 15 respectively), but of course the proof of the pudding will be longterm.
Worth noting also that Sweden are being very diligent about covid recording, their stats include everything so are boosted somewhat compared to us, or Spain, or Italy. As a share of excess mortality their reported covid deaths are at 90%.
If Sweden turns out the be right, then the implications for this government are extremely serious.
Their policy will not just be a monstrous folly, it will have been shown to be.
And when Corona importance subsides and we are groaning under the weight of the financial burden, well. I wouldn't want to be in their shoes.
Not now or in history.
The only politician in the UK advocating a lighter touch lockdown was Boris, it was the opponents of the government that wanted a harder and faster lockdown. Even if you think Boris imposed to tight a lockdown, who do you vote for? There is no one to the "laissez faire" side of him
The only valid criticism of Boris would be that he didn't stick to his "herd immunity" guns, but no one from any of the other UK parties could legitimately level that criticism at him given their own positions
Boris is the prime minister. It was his call then, its his call now. He was fresh from an enormous election victory. He had enormous authority.
He could have stood up and said that no British government in history has ever shut down its own economy, no matter what crisis had befallen its citizens, and he wasn't about to lead the first.
He could have pointed out that smallpox, plague, and and a host of other diseases had ravaged the country and yet governments down the centuries had held true to the principles of liberty and commerce and for good reason.
He could have pointed out that true leadership rested in accepting some deaths now to save the lives and futures of many more in the future.
He could have pointed out that as custodian of the country he had to think of those of the past and the future as well as the present, and the needs of all citizens, including those suffering from serious illness not related to Corona
The government did the opposite of all that. The only thing in their minds was keeping blowhards like Piers Morgan and Adam Boulton quiet. They had nothing else then and its perfectly clear they have nothing else now.
Unsurprising figure but I'm surprised as many as 7% went for Gove too - as someone who likes Gove. Shows the unreliability of polling respondents to answer the question actually asked.
Gove and Patel simply haven't done that much that's obvious compared to the others during Boris's absence. Their departments are not as key frontline as the others.
Nation likes person who gives them free stuff shock.
Nation likes person who took the risk to react quickly in what was a constructive manner. Given the usual speed of the Treasury when it comes to handing back money, it was a bloody miracle.
Compare and contrast with everyone else in government.
Note he's never once said "we're following the advice of our economists"...
Because that would be an absurd and meaningless phrase that most especially anyone who knows anything about economics would laugh at.
Why would anyone say anything so silly? There are economists for and against almost any action.
Of course, the same goes for science. As Prof Brian Cox said to Andrew Marr on Sunday:
"There’s no such thing as ‘the science’, which is a key lesson. If you hear a politician say ‘we’re following the science’, then what that means is they don’t really understand what science is. There isn’t such a thing as ‘the science’. Science is a mindset."
I wonder if that applies to campaigners on Global Warming, where 'follow the science' is also a mantra.
Just a musing on that...
Not accepting that increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere will lead to the warmng of average global temperatures is not just outsider the "cloud of science" it is a hundred miles away.
Arguing that tiny trace volumes of CO2 are the only controlling factor and what the sun is up to is a disctraction seems thousands of miles away.
Increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere 285 ppm to 410 ppm since 1850. That's a 44% increase. Saying the words "tiny trace" just makes you sound like an idiot.
"How can a tiny trace amount of botulinum toxin kill someone?"
Globally over decades the world is certainly outputting a lot of CO2.
The global atmospheric difference in CO2 between the UK going to net zero at a timescale like the government are proposing and the UK going at a timescale XR propose is a tiny trace difference.
Brexiteer= Climate change denier. What a surprise. Had enough of experts? Support Brexit and any other idiots charter that is in vogue with the pseudoscience Trumpian populist right wing.
A venn diagram of Trump fans/ Brexiteers/ climate change deniers/ end-lockdown-now advocates would show a great deal of overlap.
I've got no overlap.
Despise Trump and hopes he loses, want climate change tackling sensibly, think the lockdown needs to be ended when the time is right but not yet and Brexiteer. So one of your 4.
I have noted a persistent theme - that all Brexiters must be Trump supporters. Despite polling that indicates virtually no-one in the UK has any time for him.
I think this is largely true now. Didn't used to be, but as the awful reality of him as POTUS has dawned on anybody with a brain or a moral compass it has left him with few genuine supporters here in the UK other than the bona fide racist hard right. One does still hear the "awful but better than Hillary" sentiment around, though. Certainly I hear that more than I would like - which is never - from ostensibly OKish individuals.
That looks like a large and over-imaginative claim. Polling suggests that the numbers have not changed ie Split down the middle, with about 10% don't knows.
Unsurprising figure but I'm surprised as many as 7% went for Gove too - as someone who likes Gove. Shows the unreliability of polling respondents to answer the question actually asked.
Gove and Patel simply haven't done that much that's obvious compared to the others during Boris's absence. Their departments are not as key frontline as the others.
Nation likes person who gives them free stuff shock.
Nation likes person who took the risk to react quickly in what was a constructive manner. Given the usual speed of the Treasury when it comes to handing back money, it was a bloody miracle.
Compare and contrast with everyone else in government.
Note he's never once said "we're following the advice of our economists"...
Because that would be an absurd and meaningless phrase that most especially anyone who knows anything about economics would laugh at.
Why would anyone say anything so silly? There are economists for and against almost any action.
Of course, the same goes for science. As Prof Brian Cox said to Andrew Marr on Sunday:
"There’s no such thing as ‘the science’, which is a key lesson. If you hear a politician say ‘we’re following the science’, then what that means is they don’t really understand what science is. There isn’t such a thing as ‘the science’. Science is a mindset."
I wonder if that applies to campaigners on Global Warming, where 'follow the science' is also a mantra.
Just a musing on that...
Not accepting that increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere will lead to the warmng of average global temperatures is not just outsider the "cloud of science" it is a hundred miles away.
Arguing that tiny trace volumes of CO2 are the only controlling factor and what the sun is up to is a disctraction seems thousands of miles away.
Increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere 285 ppm to 410 ppm since 1850. That's a 44% increase. Saying the words "tiny trace" just makes you sound like an idiot.
"How can a tiny trace amount of botulinum toxin kill someone?"
Globally over decades the world is certainly outputting a lot of CO2.
The global atmospheric difference in CO2 between the UK going to net zero at a timescale like the government are proposing and the UK going at a timescale XR propose is a tiny trace difference.
Brexiteer= Climate change denier. What a surprise. Had enough of experts? Support Brexit and any other idiots charter that is in vogue with the pseudoscience Trumpian populist right wing.
A venn diagram of Trump fans/ Brexiteers/ climate change deniers/ end-lockdown-now advocates would show a great deal of overlap.
I've got no overlap.
Despise Trump and hopes he loses, want climate change tackling sensibly, think the lockdown needs to be ended when the time is right but not yet and Brexiteer. So one of your 4.
Fair enough, I said there would be significant overlap not that it would be a perfect Venn, Your views are hardly typical, Philip. I'm sure even you would concede that.
It will be a close run thing between all the big Western European nations, Germany excluded
Worth noting that France and the UK have similar large populations - nearly 70 million - and are bigger than Italy and much bigger than Spain, so you’d expect the first two nations to be at the top.
Makes sense. Youd hope, as a big nation, to do better than the rest like Germany, but if you dont youd expect to be near the top on totals. Actually being top would play very badly for the government though.
I'm not sure that population size should be factored in, unless and until you get to the point where basically everyone has had the disease.
We are trying to stop the disease from spreading. So absolute number of deaths seems the right metric.
If we had reacted as well as countries like South Korea, Germany, Australia and New Zealand we could have prevented far more deaths.
This is NOT what Doctor Ferguson predicted. It maybe tallies with the mad Israeli professor’s opinion that this disease has a natural ebb and flow, lockdowns are less important than we think
If Sweden does turn out to have had a strategy that has blended freedom, not trashing their economy and protection of their people, the pivoting of some is going to be incredible.
Personally, I think that it will probably turn out that different countries have a differing range of options available to them based on factors like population density, ability to isolate from neighbours, level of travel into a country from elsewhere.
The "personal choice over nanny state" argument, yes, but my understanding is that their economy is likely just as damaged as ours.
Yes, their GDP is expected to shrink by 10%. It is export-oriented
However, what they have avoided is the mental and physical health impact of stricter lockdown. Much less isolation.
Though there is the mental health impact of losing loved ones through excess and avoidable Covid deaths, and the physical health impact of being, well, dead.
Sure, but to be brutal and Malthusian, most of their dead are found in care homes. This is very old people with not long to live. A death is sad but not devastating.
The devastating deaths are the younger people. If Sweden has lost 2500 citizens to coronavirus she might have lost a few hundred younger people.
That is a tragedy, but it ain’t a war. Meanwhile, millions of Swedes will have gained, psychologically, economically and physically, from avoiding a harder lockdown
But, we will have to revisit this in a year or two. Prof Ferguson thinks Swedish deaths will just keep on rising, relentlessly, because their R0 will stay stubbornly over 1
A good friend of mine lost his mum at the weekend, elderly & frail and in hospital because of that rather than Covid. She just stopped breathing after having a chat with a nurse (tbf the way most of us would probably like to go), but my friend and his family weren't allowed to see her for the previous 2 weeks though they were allowed in to say a painful farewell to the remains.
He's a successful artist and has had to decamp from his large studio to the summer house in his back garden for the foreseeable future, a right royal pita and likely to have some effect on his commercial output. However I'm almost certain that it'll take him much longer to deal with the former event than it will the latter situation.
Unsurprising figure but I'm surprised as many as 7% went for Gove too - as someone who likes Gove. Shows the unreliability of polling respondents to answer the question actually asked.
Gove and Patel simply haven't done that much that's obvious compared to the others during Boris's absence. Their departments are not as key frontline as the others.
Nation likes person who gives them free stuff shock.
Nation likes person who took the risk to react quickly in what was a constructive manner. Given the usual speed of the Treasury when it comes to handing back money, it was a bloody miracle.
Compare and contrast with everyone else in government.
Note he's never once said "we're following the advice of our economists"...
Because that would be an absurd and meaningless phrase that most especially anyone who knows anything about economics would laugh at.
Why would anyone say anything so silly? There are economists for and against almost any action.
Of course, the same goes for science. As Prof Brian Cox said to Andrew Marr on Sunday:
"There’s no such thing as ‘the science’, which is a key lesson. If you hear a politician say ‘we’re following the science’, then what that means is they don’t really understand what science is. There isn’t such a thing as ‘the science’. Science is a mindset."
I wonder if that applies to campaigners on Global Warming, where 'follow the science' is also a mantra.
Just a musing on that...
Not accepting that increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere will lead to the warmng of average global temperatures is not just outsider the "cloud of science" it is a hundred miles away.
Arguing that tiny trace volumes of CO2 are the only controlling factor and what the sun is up to is a disctraction seems thousands of miles away.
Increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere 285 ppm to 410 ppm since 1850. That's a 44% increase. Saying the words "tiny trace" just makes you sound like an idiot.
"How can a tiny trace amount of botulinum toxin kill someone?"
Globally over decades the world is certainly outputting a lot of CO2.
The global atmospheric difference in CO2 between the UK going to net zero at a timescale like the government are proposing and the UK going at a timescale XR propose is a tiny trace difference.
Brexiteer= Climate change denier. What a surprise. Had enough of experts? Support Brexit and any other idiots charter that is in vogue with the pseudoscience Trumpian populist right wing.
A venn diagram of Trump fans/ Brexiteers/ climate change deniers/ end-lockdown-now advocates would show a great deal of overlap.
I've got no overlap.
Despise Trump and hopes he loses, want climate change tackling sensibly, think the lockdown needs to be ended when the time is right but not yet and Brexiteer. So one of your 4.
Fair enough, I said there would be significant overlap not that it would be a perfect Venn, Your views are hardly typical, Philip. I'm sure even you would concede that.
My views are hardly typical but I think that my combination would represent a significant portion of Brexiteers.
I do certainly think there is a small minority that is all 4 but it would be a small minority.
All the speculating about the UK maybe topping the Coronavirus deaths league table. I wonder why..... What do they all have in common?...
Britain has the perfect storm - high number of old people, centres of savage population density with crammed public transport, obesity, busy transport links to the epicentre in China, poor air quality, daft religions that congregate together.
I think we are going to be seeing a long tail of not insignificant numbers of deaths for weeks to come.
The shape of the tail will almost certainly be dependent on the degree to which social distancing continues to be observed. If social distancing is significantly relaxed, or if compliance falls too much, then we may see deaths start to rise again.
All the speculating about the UK maybe topping the Coronavirus deaths league table. I wonder why..... What do they all have in common?...
Britain has the perfect storm - high number of old people, centres of savage population density with crammed public transport, obesity, busy transport links to the epicentre in China, poor air quality, daft religions that congregate together.
...people not able to take on board the situation and take voluntary action....nah I'm going down the boozer mate, I ain't giving up tickets to a gig, etc.
All the speculating about the UK maybe topping the Coronavirus deaths league table. I wonder why..... What do they all have in common?...
Britain has the perfect storm - high number of old people, centres of savage population density with crammed public transport, obesity, busy transport links to the epicentre in China, poor air quality, daft religions that congregate together.
...people not able to take on board the situation and take voluntary action....nah I'm going down the boozer mate, I ain't giving up tickets to a gig, etc.
...halfwits spreading and believing "Shanghai Sniffle" and "its-just-the-flu-innit" bollox...
Unsurprising figure but I'm surprised as many as 7% went for Gove too - as someone who likes Gove. Shows the unreliability of polling respondents to answer the question actually asked.
Gove and Patel simply haven't done that much that's obvious compared to the others during Boris's absence. Their departments are not as key frontline as the others.
Nation likes person who gives them free stuff shock.
Nation likes person who took the risk to react quickly in what was a constructive manner. Given the usual speed of the Treasury when it comes to handing back money, it was a bloody miracle.
Compare and contrast with everyone else in government.
Note he's never once said "we're following the advice of our economists"...
Because that would be an absurd and meaningless phrase that most especially anyone who knows anything about economics would laugh at.
Why would anyone say anything so silly? There are economists for and against almost any action.
Of course, the same goes for science. As Prof Brian Cox said to Andrew Marr on Sunday:
"There’s no such thing as ‘the science’, which is a key lesson. If you hear a politician say ‘we’re following the science’, then what that means is they don’t really understand what science is. There isn’t such a thing as ‘the science’. Science is a mindset."
I wonder if that applies to campaigners on Global Warming, where 'follow the science' is also a mantra.
Just a musing on that...
Not accepting that increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere will lead to the warmng of average global temperatures is not just outsider the "cloud of science" it is a hundred miles away.
Arguing that tiny trace volumes of CO2 are the only controlling factor and what the sun is up to is a disctraction seems thousands of miles away.
Increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere 285 ppm to 410 ppm since 1850. That's a 44% increase. Saying the words "tiny trace" just makes you sound like an idiot.
"How can a tiny trace amount of botulinum toxin kill someone?"
Globally over decades the world is certainly outputting a lot of CO2.
The global atmospheric difference in CO2 between the UK going to net zero at a timescale like the government are proposing and the UK going at a timescale XR propose is a tiny trace difference.
Brexiteer= Climate change denier. What a surprise. Had enough of experts? Support Brexit and any other idiots charter that is in vogue with the pseudoscience Trumpian populist right wing.
A venn diagram of Trump fans/ Brexiteers/ climate change deniers/ end-lockdown-now advocates would show a great deal of overlap.
I've got no overlap.
Despise Trump and hopes he loses, want climate change tackling sensibly, think the lockdown needs to be ended when the time is right but not yet and Brexiteer. So one of your 4.
I have noted a persistent theme - that all Brexiters must be Trump supporters. Despite polling that indicates virtually no-one in the UK has any time for him.
The theme is that any British Trumptons were very very likely to be Brexiteers. Lots of people pretending they never had any time for him now he has become such an embarrassment but that was not what they were saying at the time he was elected. The UK Trump-rampers that come to mind are all UKIP types - who can forget all those photos of good old Nigel fawning over him. Remind me of any prominent remainers that were Trump fans - I'm sure there must be an odd one but I can't think of any..
But the Daily Mail told me they were a total waste of time and money...
Britain's near-empty Nightingale wards could be filled with the majority of Britain's coronavirus patients in order to make the UK's permanent hospitals 'Covid-free zones'.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock is planning to reopen key areas of the NHS for routine care - including cancer treatment starting from today.
Unsurprising figure but I'm surprised as many as 7% went for Gove too - as someone who likes Gove. Shows the unreliability of polling respondents to answer the question actually asked.
Gove and Patel simply haven't done that much that's obvious compared to the others during Boris's absence. Their departments are not as key frontline as the others.
Nation likes person who gives them free stuff shock.
Nation likes person who took the risk to react quickly in what was a constructive manner. Given the usual speed of the Treasury when it comes to handing back money, it was a bloody miracle.
Compare and contrast with everyone else in government.
Note he's never once said "we're following the advice of our economists"...
Because that would be an absurd and meaningless phrase that most especially anyone who knows anything about economics would laugh at.
Why would anyone say anything so silly? There are economists for and against almost any action.
Of course, the same goes for science. As Prof Brian Cox said to Andrew Marr on Sunday:
"There’s no such thing as ‘the science’, which is a key lesson. If you hear a politician say ‘we’re following the science’, then what that means is they don’t really understand what science is. There isn’t such a thing as ‘the science’. Science is a mindset."
I wonder if that applies to campaigners on Global Warming, where 'follow the science' is also a mantra.
Just a musing on that...
Not accepting that increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere will lead to the warmng of average global temperatures is not just outsider the "cloud of science" it is a hundred miles away.
Arguing that tiny trace volumes of CO2 are the only controlling factor and what the sun is up to is a disctraction seems thousands of miles away.
Increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere 285 ppm to 410 ppm since 1850. That's a 44% increase. Saying the words "tiny trace" just makes you sound like an idiot.
"How can a tiny trace amount of botulinum toxin kill someone?"
Globally over decades the world is certainly outputting a lot of CO2.
The global atmospheric difference in CO2 between the UK going to net zero at a timescale like the government are proposing and the UK going at a timescale XR propose is a tiny trace difference.
Brexiteer= Climate change denier. What a surprise. Had enough of experts? Support Brexit and any other idiots charter that is in vogue with the pseudoscience Trumpian populist right wing.
A venn diagram of Trump fans/ Brexiteers/ climate change deniers/ end-lockdown-now advocates would show a great deal of overlap.
I've got no overlap.
Despise Trump and hopes he loses, want climate change tackling sensibly, think the lockdown needs to be ended when the time is right but not yet and Brexiteer. So one of your 4.
I have noted a persistent theme - that all Brexiters must be Trump supporters. Despite polling that indicates virtually no-one in the UK has any time for him.
The theme is that any British Trumptons were very very likely to be Brexiteers. Lots of people pretending they never had any time for him now he has become such an embarrassment but that was not what they were saying at the time he was elected. The UK Trump-rampers that come to mind are all UKIP types - who can forget all those photos of good old Nigel fawning over him. Remind me of any prominent remainers that were Trump fans - I'm sure there must be an odd one but I can't think of any..
Other than Germany the big european states seem pretty similar.
Poland is quite big too, and they have 20% of Germany's deaths/capita. Or Romania vs Netherlands, similar population but 650 deaths vs 4518 (or 9k excess).
It seems to be geographically-defined more than anything. Western Europe got spanked, the excess mortality for all of us is pretty similar. Meanwhile, eastern Europe is almost untouched, with death rates 20x lower than us very common.
An analysis of why the virus has affected some countries much more than others will be interesting in a years time. Whilst they are some obvious reasons such as dense population and transport hubs there are some have been affected massively which are none of those such as Iran and Ecuador and others such as India and Pakistan has so far not been badly affected. Africa is also not badly affected and as for Vietnam I really have no idea.
Vietnam is fascinating. They crunched down hard and apparently eliminated The Bug.
At first I thought their stats were totally fake (and this corrupt communist country is surely massaging the data) but now the lack of any alarming social media to indicate an outbreak (as in Wuhan, Ecuador, Iran) suggests that Yes, they really have done well.
Strict isolation, and mask wearing?
Hard, and fast. Acting early is, I think, the single biggest differentiator between countries.
All the speculating about the UK maybe topping the Coronavirus deaths league table. I wonder why..... What do they all have in common?...
Britain has the perfect storm - high number of old people, centres of savage population density with crammed public transport, obesity, busy transport links to the epicentre in China, poor air quality, daft religions that congregate together.
...people not able to take on board the situation and take voluntary action....nah I'm going down the boozer mate, I ain't giving up tickets to a gig, etc.
...halfwits spreading and believing "Shanghai Sniffle" and "its-just-the-flu-innit" bollox...
“I’m off to Cheltenham”
I didn't have tickets to the nags, but I did have them for two events in the 2-3 weeks proceeding shit hitting the fan...and there was absolutely bugger all chance I was going to stand in a room crammed together with a several 1000 sweaty people.
All the speculating about the UK maybe topping the Coronavirus deaths league table. I wonder why..... What do they all have in common?...
Britain has the perfect storm - high number of old people, centres of savage population density with crammed public transport, obesity, busy transport links to the epicentre in China, poor air quality, daft religions that congregate together.
Population density in the south-east of England is off the scale compared to almost anywhere apart from perhaps Bangladesh. Fact check: it's slightly higher. 1171 km2 compared to 1106 km2.
The interesting thing about the Labour figure is that it's only 3 points less than the party polled the last time they won an election in 2005 (with a 66 seat majority).
The main movement since the general election seems to be LD and Brexit Party to Tory, Labour largely unchanged
In the very unlikely event of another election in coming months, I suspect we would end up with a Tory lead similar to 2010 and 2015.
But the Daily Mail told me they were a total waste of time and money...
Britain's near-empty Nightingale wards could be filled with the majority of Britain's coronavirus patients in order to make the UK's permanent hospitals 'Covid-free zones'.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock is planning to reopen key areas of the NHS for routine care - including cancer treatment starting from today.
The speed and efficiency with which the Nightingale wards were set up is one bright point in an otherwise mediocre government response to Covid-19. It is always best to prepare for the worst while hoping for the best, and the fact that they, thankfully, haven't been used (yet) in no way detracts from the need to create them.
But, we will have to revisit this in a year or two. Prof Ferguson thinks Swedish deaths will just keep on rising, relentlessly, because their R0 will stay stubbornly over 1
What might be happening there is that they're already below the Rt needed to see infections drop. The ICL model has them at Rt 1.14 [0.94-1.35] as of yesterday, and if they're at say 20% already infected and immune, anything below Rt of 1.25 is golden (it's apparently more complicated than that, but just as a rule of thumb).
Then Ferguson is wrong and the Swedish epidemiologist, Giesecke, is right.
Which is quite a big thing
Just three minutes between your advocating a stricter lockdown and speaking up for the looser Swedish approach? Surely that is a record for contemporaneous inconsistency. Rendering your posts worthless.
But, we will have to revisit this in a year or two. Prof Ferguson thinks Swedish deaths will just keep on rising, relentlessly, because their R0 will stay stubbornly over 1
What might be happening there is that they're already below the Rt needed to see infections drop. The ICL model has them at Rt 1.14 [0.94-1.35] as of yesterday, and if they're at say 20% already infected and immune, anything below Rt of 1.25 is golden (it's apparently more complicated than that, but just as a rule of thumb).
Then Ferguson is wrong and the Swedish epidemiologist, Giesecke, is right.
Which is quite a big thing
The government are a bunch of cowards. They wanted to use ''follow the science'' as a shield to keep Morgan and Co. quiet
Turns out the journos shrieked anyway, the science may be wrong and the government is now out half a trillion pounds, millions of jobs and a shattered economy.
The interesting thing about the Labour figure is that it's only 3 points less than the party polled the last time they won an election in 2005 (with a 66 seat majority).
The main movement since the general election seems to be LD and Brexit Party to Tory, Labour largely unchanged
In the very unlikely event of another election in coming months, I suspect we would end up with a Tory lead similar to 2010 and 2015.
Unlikely? Impossible.
We aren't even having our local elections this year, there certainly won't be national elections in the coming months. Any election will be years from now which will be a different era long after the virus epidemic ended (hopefully) and long after the Brexit transition ended (definitely).
But, we will have to revisit this in a year or two. Prof Ferguson thinks Swedish deaths will just keep on rising, relentlessly, because their R0 will stay stubbornly over 1
What might be happening there is that they're already below the Rt needed to see infections drop. The ICL model has them at Rt 1.14 [0.94-1.35] as of yesterday, and if they're at say 20% already infected and immune, anything below Rt of 1.25 is golden (it's apparently more complicated than that, but just as a rule of thumb).
Then Ferguson is wrong and the Swedish epidemiologist, Giesecke, is right.
Which is quite a big thing
The government are a bunch of cowards. They wanted to use ''follow the science'' as a shield to keep Morgan and Co. quiet
Turns out the journos shrieked anyway, the science may be wrong and the government is now out half a trillion pounds, millions of jobs and a shattered economy.
But, we will have to revisit this in a year or two. Prof Ferguson thinks Swedish deaths will just keep on rising, relentlessly, because their R0 will stay stubbornly over 1
What might be happening there is that they're already below the Rt needed to see infections drop. The ICL model has them at Rt 1.14 [0.94-1.35] as of yesterday, and if they're at say 20% already infected and immune, anything below Rt of 1.25 is golden (it's apparently more complicated than that, but just as a rule of thumb).
Then Ferguson is wrong and the Swedish epidemiologist, Giesecke, is right.
Which is quite a big thing
The government are a bunch of cowards. They wanted to use ''follow the science'' as a shield to keep Morgan and Co. quiet
Turns out the journos shrieked anyway, the science may be wrong and the government is now out half a trillion pounds, millions of jobs and a shattered economy.
How many more dead and sick do you think we would have had without the lockdown ?
Unsurprising figure but I'm surprised as many as 7% went for Gove too - as someone who likes Gove. Shows the unreliability of polling respondents to answer the question actually asked.
Gove and Patel simply haven't done that much that's obvious compared to the others during Boris's absence. Their departments are not as key frontline as the others.
Nation likes person who gives them free stuff shock.
Nation likes person who took the risk to react quickly in what was a constructive manner. Given the usual speed of the Treasury when it comes to handing back money, it was a bloody miracle.
Compare and contrast with everyone else in government.
Note he's never once said "we're following the advice of our economists"...
Because that would be an absurd and meaningless phrase that most especially anyone who knows anything about economics would laugh at.
Why would anyone say anything so silly? There are economists for and against almost any action.
Of course, the same goes for science. As Prof Brian Cox said to Andrew Marr on Sunday:
"There’s no such thing as ‘the science’, which is a key lesson. If you hear a politician say ‘we’re following the science’, then what that means is they don’t really understand what science is. There isn’t such a thing as ‘the science’. Science is a mindset."
I wonder if that applies to campaigners on Global Warming, where 'follow the science' is also a mantra.
Just a musing on that...
Not accepting that increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere will lead to the warmng of average global temperatures is not just outsider the "cloud of science" it is a hundred miles away.
Arguing that tiny trace volumes of CO2 are the only controlling factor and what the sun is up to is a disctraction seems thousands of miles away.
Increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere 285 ppm to 410 ppm since 1850. That's a 44% increase. Saying the words "tiny trace" just makes you sound like an idiot.
"How can a tiny trace amount of botulinum toxin kill someone?"
Globally over decades the world is certainly outputting a lot of CO2.
The global atmospheric difference in CO2 between the UK going to net zero at a timescale like the government are proposing and the UK going at a timescale XR propose is a tiny trace difference.
Brexiteer= Climate change denier. What a surprise. Had enough of experts? Support Brexit and any other idiots charter that is in vogue with the pseudoscience Trumpian populist right wing.
A venn diagram of Trump fans/ Brexiteers/ climate change deniers/ end-lockdown-now advocates would show a great deal of overlap.
I've got no overlap.
Despise Trump and hopes he loses, want climate change tackling sensibly, think the lockdown needs to be ended when the time is right but not yet and Brexiteer. So one of your 4.
I have noted a persistent theme - that all Brexiters must be Trump supporters. Despite polling that indicates virtually no-one in the UK has any time for him.
The theme is that any British Trumptons were very very likely to be Brexiteers. Lots of people pretending they never had any time for him now he has become such an embarrassment but that was not what they were saying at the time he was elected. The UK Trump-rampers that come to mind are all UKIP types - who can forget all those photos of good old Nigel fawning over him. Remind me of any prominent remainers that were Trump fans - I'm sure there must be an odd one but I can't think of any..
William Glenn.
I was thinking more along the lines of politicians or public figures.
All the speculating about the UK maybe topping the Coronavirus deaths league table. I wonder why..... What do they all have in common?...
Britain has the perfect storm - high number of old people, centres of savage population density with crammed public transport, obesity, busy transport links to the epicentre in China, poor air quality, daft religions that congregate together.
...people not able to take on board the situation and take voluntary action....nah I'm going down the boozer mate, I ain't giving up tickets to a gig, etc.
...halfwits spreading and believing "Shanghai Sniffle" and "its-just-the-flu-innit" bollox...
“I’m off to Cheltenham”
I didn't have tickets to the nags, but I did have them for two events in the 2-3 weeks proceeding shit hitting the fan...and there was absolutely bugger all chance I was going to stand in a room crammed together with a several 1000 sweaty people.
Seeing a band live just isn't that important.
My local advertised the Saturday before lockdown as "Show Your Resilience Partyt". Needless to say I showed mine by keeping well clear.
Contrary to the Header my vibes are not that lockdown is set to be eased. I am fortunate enough to have a Sir Cliff Richard calendar on the kitchen wall and I have marked the end of UK lockdown on there. 28th May. The balance of political risk steers to keeping it until then.
In his May picture, Cliff is in concert and is wearing head to toe denim. Shirt is well open, hair long, big sideburns. Quite raunchy. It catches him in what many feel to be his best period, the mid seventies. Very possible, therefore, that the song he is singing is Devil Woman (1976) - I like to think so anyway.
Miss You Nights, surely?
I watched the video to "Daddy's Home" on Youtube last week.. and sang along! (to the title bit, I don't know the words)
The hidden toll of lockdown on people's lives. Real people. Real lives.
Haha
I watched a few Roger Waters interviews to redress the balance!
- yes I can imagine you liking him.
HIM, I mean, not necessarily his music. He has a trad WC 1950s vibe. Salt of the earth blended with a touch of the spiritual
Looks uncannily like Richard Gere? Well, yes, there's that too. But Waters came first so any charge of copycat would be ridiculous.
I like both him and his music. I used to obsessively love the early Pink Floyd of which he had little writing involvement, and I can barely listen to now (although played The Gnome to our 6 month old son the other day) , and now prefer the albums he more or less wrote on his own, Dark Side to The Final Cut. The Wall is a masterpiece.
He is a massive lefty politically, I think.
Looks wise he has matured like a fine wine... from actually ugly in his twenties and thirties, to genuinely handsome in his seventies.
Roger Water's politics are summed up in the vicious but brilliant track Pigs (Three Different Ones)" from Animals released in 1977 where Mary Whitehouse among others was targeted.
Big man, pig man Ha ha, charade you are
A certain D Trump would be in his sights today one suspects
Yes I love that song.It seems he incorporates anti-Trump message into it now. The second verse is about Thatcher apparently.
I didnt know it was the song they were playing when Waters spat at a fan, just read that on wiki. The incident that led to "The Wall"
All the speculating about the UK maybe topping the Coronavirus deaths league table. I wonder why..... What do they all have in common?...
Britain has the perfect storm - high number of old people, centres of savage population density with crammed public transport, obesity, busy transport links to the epicentre in China, poor air quality, daft religions that congregate together.
Allied to a government whose administrative rhythms lie somewhere between Adagio and Largo.
This is NOT what Doctor Ferguson predicted. It maybe tallies with the mad Israeli professor’s opinion that this disease has a natural ebb and flow, lockdowns are less important than we think
If Sweden does turn out to have had a strategy that has blended freedom, not trashing their economy and protection of their people, the pivoting of some is going to be incredible.
Personally, I think that it will probably turn out that different countries have a differing range of options available to them based on factors like population density, ability to isolate from neighbours, level of travel into a country from elsewhere.
The "personal choice over nanny state" argument, yes, but my understanding is that their economy is likely just as damaged as ours.
Yes, their GDP is expected to shrink by 10%. It is export-oriented
However, what they have avoided is the mental and physical health impact of stricter lockdown. Much less isolation.
Though there is the mental health impact of losing loved ones through excess and avoidable Covid deaths, and the physical health impact of being, well, dead.
They may avoid many deaths by not having further waves due to herd immunity.
May is carrying a lot there.
1) there may be no further waves.
2) infection may not lead to lasting immunity
3) Even in Stockholm there have not been enough infections to generate herd immunity, and much less so still in provincial Sweden.
All the speculating about the UK maybe topping the Coronavirus deaths league table. I wonder why..... What do they all have in common?...
Britain has the perfect storm - high number of old people, centres of savage population density with crammed public transport, obesity, busy transport links to the epicentre in China, poor air quality, daft religions that congregate together.
...people not able to take on board the situation and take voluntary action....nah I'm going down the boozer mate, I ain't giving up tickets to a gig, etc.
...halfwits spreading and believing "Shanghai Sniffle" and "its-just-the-flu-innit" bollox...
“I’m off to Cheltenham”
I didn't have tickets to the nags, but I did have them for two events in the 2-3 weeks proceeding shit hitting the fan...and there was absolutely bugger all chance I was going to stand in a room crammed together with a several 1000 sweaty people.
Seeing a band live just isn't that important.
When was the "Cheltenham spike"? Can we separate it out from the "tube spike"?
All the speculating about the UK maybe topping the Coronavirus deaths league table. I wonder why..... What do they all have in common?...
Britain has the perfect storm - high number of old people, centres of savage population density with crammed public transport, obesity, busy transport links to the epicentre in China, poor air quality, daft religions that congregate together.
...people not able to take on board the situation and take voluntary action....nah I'm going down the boozer mate, I ain't giving up tickets to a gig, etc.
...halfwits spreading and believing "Shanghai Sniffle" and "its-just-the-flu-innit" bollox...
“I’m off to Cheltenham”
I didn't have tickets to the nags, but I did have them for two events in the 2-3 weeks proceeding shit hitting the fan...and there was absolutely bugger all chance I was going to stand in a room crammed together with a several 1000 sweaty people.
Seeing a band live just isn't that important.
When was the "Cheltenham spike"? Can we separate it out from the "tube spike"?
If Sweden does turn out to have had a strategy that has blended freedom, not trashing their economy and protection of their people, the pivoting of some is going to be incredible.
Personally, I think that it will probably turn out that different countries have a differing range of options available to them based on factors like population density, ability to isolate from neighbours, level of travel into a country from elsewhere.
Yeah, we can't really assume Sweden's model was an option for us, or Belgium, or France/Spain/Italy etc. It's a choice that was open say to Norway or Poland, and it's them Sweden should be compared against. At present they have hugely more deaths (225 per million vs 38 and 15 respectively), but of course the proof of the pudding will be longterm.
Worth noting also that Sweden are being very diligent about covid recording, their stats include everything so are boosted somewhat compared to us, or Spain, or Italy. As a share of excess mortality their reported covid deaths are at 90%.
If Sweden turns out the be right, then the implications for this government are extremely serious.
Their policy will not just be a monstrous folly, it will have been shown to be.
And when Corona importance subsides and we are groaning under the weight of the financial burden, well. I wouldn't want to be in their shoes.
Not now or in history.
The only politician in the UK advocating a lighter touch lockdown was Boris, it was the opponents of the government that wanted a harder and faster lockdown. Even if you think Boris imposed to tight a lockdown, who do you vote for? There is no one to the "laissez faire" side of him
The only valid criticism of Boris would be that he didn't stick to his "herd immunity" guns, but no one from any of the other UK parties could legitimately level that criticism at him given their own positions
Boris is the prime minister. It was his call then, its his call now. He was fresh from an enormous election victory. He had enormous authority.
He could have stood up and said that no British government in history has ever shut down its own economy, no matter what crisis had befallen its citizens, and he wasn't about to lead the first.
He could have pointed out that smallpox, plague, and and a host of other diseases had ravaged the country and yet governments down the centuries had held true to the principles of liberty and commerce and for good reason.
He could have pointed out that true leadership rested in accepting some deaths now to save the lives and futures of many more in the future.
He could have pointed out that as custodian of the country he had to think of those of the past and the future as well as the present, and the needs of all citizens, including those suffering from serious illness not related to Corona
The government did the opposite of all that. The only thing in their minds was keeping blowhards like Piers Morgan and Adam Boulton quiet. They had nothing else then and its perfectly clear they have nothing else now.
Yes, he could have, and I kind of wish he had. Maybe you, I, and some other commentators could legitimately criticise him, but my point is that no other UK party politician could, and when its time to vote, he is the only one who even considered it. Why would you vote for someone else who was more lockdown thirsty if your anger with Boris is that he wasn't going to lockdown, but then did?
Unsurprising figure but I'm surprised as many as 7% went for Gove too - as someone who likes Gove. Shows the unreliability of polling respondents to answer the question actually asked.
Gove and Patel simply haven't done that much that's obvious compared to the others during Boris's absence. Their departments are not as key frontline as the others.
Nation likes person who gives them free stuff shock.
Nation likes person who took the risk to react quickly in what was a constructive manner. Given the usual speed of the Treasury when it comes to handing back money, it was a bloody miracle.
Compare and contrast with everyone else in government.
Note he's never once said "we're following the advice of our economists"...
Because that would be an absurd and meaningless phrase that most especially anyone who knows anything about economics would laugh at.
Why would anyone say anything so silly? There are economists for and against almost any action.
Of course, the same goes for science. As Prof Brian Cox said to Andrew Marr on Sunday:
"There’s no such thing as ‘the science’, which is a key lesson. If you hear a politician say ‘we’re following the science’, then what that means is they don’t really understand what science is. There isn’t such a thing as ‘the science’. Science is a mindset."
I wonder if that applies to campaigners on Global Warming, where 'follow the science' is also a mantra.
Just a musing on that...
Not accepting that increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere will lead to the warmng of average global temperatures is not just outsider the "cloud of science" it is a hundred miles away.
Arguing that tiny trace volumes of CO2 are the only controlling factor and what the sun is up to is a disctraction seems thousands of miles away.
Increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere 285 ppm to 410 ppm since 1850. That's a 44% increase. Saying the words "tiny trace" just makes you sound like an idiot.
"How can a tiny trace amount of botulinum toxin kill someone?"
Globally over decades the world is certainly outputting a lot of CO2.
The global atmospheric difference in CO2 between the UK going to net zero at a timescale like the government are proposing and the UK going at a timescale XR propose is a tiny trace difference.
Brexiteer= Climate change denier. What a surprise. Had enough of experts? Support Brexit and any other idiots charter that is in vogue with the pseudoscience Trumpian populist right wing.
A venn diagram of Trump fans/ Brexiteers/ climate change deniers/ end-lockdown-now advocates would show a great deal of overlap.
I've got no overlap.
Despise Trump and hopes he loses, want climate change tackling sensibly, think the lockdown needs to be ended when the time is right but not yet and Brexiteer. So one of your 4.
I have noted a persistent theme - that all Brexiters must be Trump supporters. Despite polling that indicates virtually no-one in the UK has any time for him.
The theme is that any British Trumptons were very very likely to be Brexiteers. Lots of people pretending they never had any time for him now he has become such an embarrassment but that was not what they were saying at the time he was elected. The UK Trump-rampers that come to mind are all UKIP types - who can forget all those photos of good old Nigel fawning over him. Remind me of any prominent remainers that were Trump fans - I'm sure there must be an odd one but I can't think of any..
William Glenn.
I was thinking more along the lines of politicians or public figures.
The interesting thing about the Labour figure is that it's only 3 points less than the party polled the last time they won an election in 2005 (with a 66 seat majority).
The main movement since the general election seems to be LD and Brexit Party to Tory, Labour largely unchanged
In the very unlikely event of another election in coming months, I suspect we would end up with a Tory lead similar to 2010 and 2015.
There is no general election for 4 years so it does not matter anyway
Comments
That's before we get to demographics.
It's a difficult area, and one full of nuance.
Looks like a load added from the 3 days before that.
Their policy will not just be a monstrous folly, it will have been shown to be.
And when Corona importance subsides and we are groaning under the weight of the financial burden, well. I wouldn't want to be in their shoes.
Not now or in history.
546 deaths in England
https://twitter.com/100YearsAgoLive/status/1255118430237310976
Stats for Vince Cable.
That looks like a large and over-imaginative claim. Polling suggests that the numbers have not changed ie Split down the middle, with about 10% don't knows.
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/
Unless you can provide some evidence that half of the UK population are:
a) Trump Supporters?
b) The "bona fide racist hard right"?
I'm listening...
Overtaking other countries on deaths is also going to be very damaging to the govt if/when it happens.
Bill from Brighton - What films / tv shows did Boris watch while recovering?
Why are deaths up?
Why isn't lockdown working?
When will lockdown end?
People are confused about lockdown, why is the government message so poor?
Peston....blah blah blah...5 mins later...is because you are useless isn't it?
Why are deaths in care home rapidly increasing?
So no damage to the Conservatives there - in fact a shift from LibDems to Labour in Oxford West would have benefited the Conservatives there.
Now go and look at the Conservative majorities in the likes of Warwickshire N, Cambourne, Thurrock, Sherwood, Lancaster, Morecambe and possibly Hendon and Cardiff North.
5-10 fewer Conservative MPs and the numbers game becomes different after the election.
As to the polls, there are a multitude of factors which affect them, some giving a boost to one side others to another.
And if you remove bigotgate then Labour would have done better in the polls, in particular in would have done better in many places where it needed to do better.
Spreadsheet containing the multi-day data at -
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1ncSRdAVVyuObT8_LMEJm9VPmlSnvBbHD
The only valid criticism of Boris would be that he didn't stick to his "herd immunity" guns, but no one from any of the other UK parties could legitimately level that criticism at him given their own positions
I'm sorry that your questions weren't chosen yesterday. And also I'm sorry that you chose not to be a journalist (the nation's loss). And that you decided not to be a politician (even greater loss). Delighted that you did choose to be an internet guy who could sort it all out if only given the chance (our benefit).
https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/health/man-self-diagnoses-as-expert-epidemiologist-20200415195502
It seems to be geographically-defined more than anything. Western Europe got spanked, the excess mortality for all of us is pretty similar. Meanwhile, eastern Europe is almost untouched, with death rates 20x lower than us very common.
The Tories weren’t criticising Labour for not regulating the banking industry sufficiently, in the run up to the financial crisis. No, they were urging more deregulation.
The line suggests the peak was 15/16th really doesn't it? I thought I saw that they started having people die of Covid a week later than the UK on @Alistair's graph earlier, so that would make sense
https://twitter.com/pwyowell/status/1255108492853161985?s=21
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/02/06/plurality-britons-once-again-support-trump-state-v
Those Tories eh. Cheek of them.
The UK was never as far behind in the cycle as Italy, Spain, Germany etc as the scientists thought.
And then that gap narrowed even further through the lack of restrictions of entry to the UK.
Modeling COVID-19 Growing Trends to Reveal the Differences in the Effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions among Countries in the World
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.22.20075846v1
...We hypothesize that COVID-19 case growth data reveals the efficacy of NPIs. In this study, we conduct a secondary analysis of COVID-19 case growth data to compare the differences in the effectiveness of NPIs among 16 representative countries in the world. Methods: This study leverages publicly available data to learn patterns of dynamic changes in the reproduction rate for sixteen countries covering Asia, Europe, North America, South America, Australia, and Africa. Furthermore, we model the relationships between the cumulative number of cases and the dynamic reproduction rate to characterize the effectiveness of the NPIs. We learn four levels of NPIs according to their effects in the control of COVID-19 growth and categorize the 16 countries into the corresponding groups. Results: The dynamic changes of the reproduction rate are learned via linear regression models for all of the studied countries, with the average adjusted R-squared at 0.96 and the 95% confidence interval as [0.94 0.98]. China, South Korea, Argentina, and Australia are at the first level of NPIs, which are the most effective. Japan and Egypt are at the second level of NPIs, and Italy, Germany, France, Netherlands, and Spain, are at the third level. The US and UK have the most inefficient NPIs, and they are at the fourth level of NPIs. Conclusions: COVID-19 case growth data provides evidence to demonstrate the effectiveness of the NPIs. Understanding the differences in the efficacy of the NPIs among countries in the world can give guidance for emergent public health events....
Big man, pig man
Ha ha, charade you are
A certain D Trump would be in his sights today one suspects
Long Communist backed civil wars will do that.
https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1255125561699172353?s=20
He could have stood up and said that no British government in history has ever shut down its own economy, no matter what crisis had befallen its citizens, and he wasn't about to lead the first.
He could have pointed out that smallpox, plague, and and a host of other diseases had ravaged the country and yet governments down the centuries had held true to the principles of liberty and commerce and for good reason.
He could have pointed out that true leadership rested in accepting some deaths now to save the lives and futures of many more in the future.
He could have pointed out that as custodian of the country he had to think of those of the past and the future as well as the present, and the needs of all citizens, including those suffering from serious illness not related to Corona
The government did the opposite of all that. The only thing in their minds was keeping blowhards like Piers Morgan and Adam Boulton quiet. They had nothing else then and its perfectly clear they have nothing else now.
There are few people over here other than the racist hard right who remain enthusiastic supporters of Donald Trump.
Are you disputing this?
What do they all have in common?...
We are trying to stop the disease from spreading.
So absolute number of deaths seems the right metric.
If we had reacted as well as countries like South Korea, Germany, Australia and New Zealand we could have prevented far more deaths.
He's a successful artist and has had to decamp from his large studio to the summer house in his back garden for the foreseeable future, a right royal pita and likely to have some effect on his commercial output. However I'm almost certain that it'll take him much longer to deal with the former event than it will the latter situation.
I do certainly think there is a small minority that is all 4 but it would be a small minority.
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1255127196286373888?s=20
Britain's near-empty Nightingale wards could be filled with the majority of Britain's coronavirus patients in order to make the UK's permanent hospitals 'Covid-free zones'.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock is planning to reopen key areas of the NHS for routine care - including cancer treatment starting from today.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8264051/Britains-barely-used-NHS-Nightingales-FINALLY-patients.html
Acting early is, I think, the single biggest differentiator between countries.
This article outlines the timescale of the Vietnam measures:
https://theconversation.com/vietnam-has-reported-no-coronavirus-deaths-how-136646
They were, for example, quarantining all incoming travellers back in February - something we're still not doing.
In this Chinese paper, they estimate that a single day's difference in locking down a city made a measurable difference in how quickly the outbreak was contained locally:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.22.20075762v1
Seeing a band live just isn't that important.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQRVH08xZcI
Its pretty good.
Turns out the journos shrieked anyway, the science may be wrong and the government is now out half a trillion pounds, millions of jobs and a shattered economy.
We aren't even having our local elections this year, there certainly won't be national elections in the coming months. Any election will be years from now which will be a different era long after the virus epidemic ended (hopefully) and long after the Brexit transition ended (definitely).
Obv nothing to do with the fact that including them would put us top of the death league.
Needless to say I showed mine by keeping well clear.
I didnt know it was the song they were playing when Waters spat at a fan, just read that on wiki. The incident that led to "The Wall"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWLBtMz5OuY
1) there may be no further waves.
2) infection may not lead to lasting immunity
3) Even in Stockholm there have not been enough infections to generate herd immunity, and much less so still in provincial Sweden.