But Christmas is about hope, faith and self-sacrifice. It has a much deeper meaning, especially for adults (who are the recipients of politicians' Christmas cards). It is not simply a party.
Two of the last four seasons have gone down to the final race anyway. The other two years Vettel had won about 60% into the season. So, this is both gimmicky and stupid, and probably won't change anything anyway.
Of course it is at this point of the electoral cycle. It's called give the government a kick up the ar5e when it doesn't matter and then come the general election public opinion will settle again.
But Christmas is about hope, faith and self-sacrifice. It has a much deeper meaning, especially for adults (who are the recipients of politicians' Christmas cards). It is not simply a party.
Well if hope, faith and self-sacrifice is just for Christmas I'd say it's just for show.
Of course it is at this point of the electoral cycle. It's called give the government a kick up the ar5e when it doesn't matter and then come the general election public opinion will settle again.
Do you have any evidence for that or is it just a hunch?
Of course it is at this point of the electoral cycle. It's called give the government a kick up the ar5e when it doesn't matter and then come the general election public opinion will settle again.
Do you have any evidence for that or is it just a hunch?
Quite so. I remain firmly of the opinion that when the nation finally faces up to the choice available to it come May 2015 they will not place the Downing Street net curtain tape measure in the hands of Mrs Miliband.
But Christmas is about hope, faith and self-sacrifice. It has a much deeper meaning, especially for adults (who are the recipients of politicians' Christmas cards). It is not simply a party.
Well if hope, faith and self-sacrifice is just for Christmas I'd say it's just for show.
Quite so. I remain firmly of the opinion that when the nation finally faces up to the choice available to it come May 2015 they will not place the Downing Street net curtain tape measure in the hands of Mrs Miliband.
You're "firmly" of that opinion because you want it to be true.
I note below that you appear to be a Powellite nutter.
I wouldn't have entered into a bet with you if I'd known that. But since I have, on the off-chance you win, I'm not donating your charity winnings to the EDL or someone, 'kay? If that's a welch, it's a welch.
Haha fair enough
I wouldn't say Im a nutter, but having read Enoch Powells Birmingham speech as a Labour voting leftie four years ago, fully expecting to hate him afterwards, I couldn't deny to myself that his predictions and fears, not to be confused with what he desired, were incredibly accurate. Further reading has convinced me that anyone considering him racist is very wide of the mark.
But anyway, if I win the bet you can donate the money to Cancer Research, or if you would rather not bet with me because I am a fan of Enoch Powell, then I will let you off the bet its no problem
Of course it is at this point of the electoral cycle. It's called give the government a kick up the ar5e when it doesn't matter and then come the general election public opinion will settle again.
Do you have any evidence for that or is it just a hunch?
You're neither a student of political history or an impartial observer of the prospects of Ed Miliband are you ??
I note below that you appear to be a Powellite nutter.
I wouldn't have entered into a bet with you if I'd known that. But since I have, on the off-chance you win, I'm not donating your charity winnings to the EDL or someone, 'kay? If that's a welch, it's a welch.
Haha fair enough
I wouldn't say Im a nutter, but having read Enoch Powells Birmingham speech as a Labour voting leftie four years ago, fully expecting to hate him afterwards, I couldn't deny to myself that his predictions and fears, not to be confused with what he desired, were incredibly accurate. Further reading has convinced me that anyone considering him racist is very wide of the mark.
But anyway, if I win the bet you can donate the money to Cancer Research, or if you would rather not bet with me because I am a fan of Enoch Powell, then I will let you off the bet its no problem
Mr. Isam, I watched a programme about the Rivers of Blood speech a few years ago, and was surprised to see that it was both generally agreed with by the public and absolutely ruined Powell's career.
Now we have enclaves that are breeding grounds for lunatics who feel no sense of Britishness whatsoever. Excessive immigration meant proper integration of everyone was impossible, and anyone who criticised it was labelled a racist (as we know from the revelations about Labour's decision to open the floodgates).
As an aside, the six arrested over the recent slavery case are travellers, apparently. Has gypsy been officially consigned to the dustbin of non-PC vocabulary?
I note below that you appear to be a Powellite nutter.
I wouldn't have entered into a bet with you if I'd known that. But since I have, on the off-chance you win, I'm not donating your charity winnings to the EDL or someone, 'kay? If that's a welch, it's a welch.
Haha fair enough
I wouldn't say Im a nutter, but having read Enoch Powells Birmingham speech as a Labour voting leftie four years ago, fully expecting to hate him afterwards, I couldn't deny to myself that his predictions and fears, not to be confused with what he desired, were incredibly accurate. Further reading has convinced me that anyone considering him racist is very wide of the mark.
But anyway, if I win the bet you can donate the money to Cancer Research, or if you would rather not bet with me because I am a fan of Enoch Powell, then I will let you off the bet its no problem
No probs, even more happy to take money for my fave charity off a fan of a vile racist scumbag like Enoch Powell!
I read in tonight's Standard that Geoffrey Bloom's family Christmas card features him brandishing a pair of bongos and his wife dressed as a slut. I'm surprised Michael Crick didn't make a cameo.
I saw that card and it was mildly amusing - His wife with a fag hanging out of the corner of her mouth.
Quite so. I remain firmly of the opinion that when the nation finally faces up to the choice available to it come May 2015 they will not place the Downing Street net curtain tape measure in the hands of Mrs Miliband.
You're "firmly" of that opinion because you want it to be true.
I'm "firmly of that opinion" because and with no false sense of modesty .... stop tittering in the back row .... I have a reputation for calling general elections both here and in the US correctly.
Neither are my opinions based in political bias. When Hague, IDS and Howard ran for office my contention was the same as it is now for Miliband.
You should just sit back, enjoy your good fortune, make a few shillings and thank me after the election as many others have done in the past !!
JackW, well worth having another look at this PB article penned by OGH from May 2011 in the aftermath of the last Holyrood elections and aptly titled "Could Labour’s polling position just evaporate?". "Ten weeks in Scottish politics – what are the lessons? I’ve been meaning to put up this chart for some time because I’m sure that the polling experience leading up to the Holyrood election on May 5th will be referred to time and time again.
This shows the regional list where the changes were most pronounced. From a position just ten weeks before election day where Labour had a 14 point lead over the SNP voters on the day gave Salmond’s party an 18 point margin over Labour."
Quite so. I remain firmly of the opinion that when the nation finally faces up to the choice available to it come May 2015 they will not place the Downing Street net curtain tape measure in the hands of Mrs Miliband.
@Carola Would it be "philistine" of me to think it looks more like a lost soul from the "Tartan Army", still trying to find his way home from the last World Cup game?
It's the fourth wise man apparently.
Howson is very religious in his eccentric way.
It's a picture of a man who failed to achieve his objective. A curious and inauspicious choice by Salmond.
'The legend of the fourth wise man, based on an 1895 novel by American author Henry van Dyke, tells the story of a Persian scholar who, delayed by helping the vulnerable, followed the star to Bethlehem but arrived just too late to herald the birth of Jesus.Thirty years on, Artaban, who had become an old man, was still searching for Jesus when he saved a young girl from slavery. In a dying vision, he was comforted that his devotion to the distressed secured him entrance heaven.'
The embodiment of Eck's gradualist approach surely?
Anyway , Salmond's fixation with Christmas is profoundly un-Scottish. The ghastly festival was justly outlawed there until recently.
Mr. Isam, I watched a programme about the Rivers of Blood speech a few years ago, and was surprised to see that it was both generally agreed with by the public and absolutely ruined Powell's career.
Now we have enclaves that are breeding grounds for lunatics who feel no sense of Britishness whatsoever. Excessive immigration meant proper integration of everyone was impossible, and anyone who criticised it was labelled a racist (as we know from the revelations about Labour's decision to open the floodgates).
As an aside, the six arrested over the recent slavery case are travellers, apparently. Has gypsy been officially consigned to the dustbin of non-PC vocabulary?
Almost every thing he predicted on immigration has been proven correct... If he had said "by 2013 less than half of Londoners would be white british, immigrant descended muslims would be cutting British soldiers heads off in the street while British men are bombing the tube in the name of Allah" people would have crucified him... he never went nearly as far, yet is still castigated. It can only be because people wish these things weren't true... and he even predicted that!
'Above all, people are disposed to mistake predicting troubles for causing troubles and even for desiring troubles: "If only," they love to think, "if only people wouldn't talk about it, it probably wouldn't happen." '
Yes, be careful... and remember, opposing mass immigration of white Europeans is racist as well
Quite so. I remain firmly of the opinion that when the nation finally faces up to the choice available to it come May 2015 they will not place the Downing Street net curtain tape measure in the hands of Mrs Miliband.
You're "firmly" of that opinion because you want it to be true.
I'm "firmly of that opinion" because and with no false sense of modesty .... stop tittering in the back row .... I have a reputation for calling general elections both here and in the US correctly.
Neither are my opinions based in political bias. When Hague, IDS and Howard ran for office my contention was the same as it is now for Miliband.
You should just sit back, enjoy your good fortune, make a few shillings and thank me after the election as many others have done in the past !!
On what basis are you "calling" this one?
Your hilarious - and oh my, it is so side-splittingly hilarious - "ARSE"?
Or the fact that you dislike Ed Miliband and Labour?
Quite so. I remain firmly of the opinion that when the nation finally faces up to the choice available to it come May 2015 they will not place the Downing Street net curtain tape measure in the hands of Mrs Miliband.
You're "firmly" of that opinion because you want it to be true.
I'm "firmly of that opinion" because and with no false sense of modesty .... stop tittering in the back row .... I have a reputation for calling general elections both here and in the US correctly.
Neither are my opinions based in political bias. When Hague, IDS and Howard ran for office my contention was the same as it is now for Miliband.
You should just sit back, enjoy your good fortune, make a few shillings and thank me after the election as many others have done in the past !!
Well said Mr W.
I must admit that I share your view, but rather than a surge for Cameron it will be the desertion of Labour voters which will close the gap. They will drop below their 35% target.
"Arrested because he joked about Mandela: Police hold shopkeeper for eight hours, take his DNA and seize his computer - after local councillor objects to off-colour internet comments
* Neil Phillips from Rugeley, Staffordshire, was also finger-printed * The 44-year-old insisted he meant no harm saying there was 'no hatred' * Local Councillor Tim Jones complained about the one-liners * CPS said they would not be prosecuting because of insufficient evidence":
Quite so. I remain firmly of the opinion that when the nation finally faces up to the choice available to it come May 2015 they will not place the Downing Street net curtain tape measure in the hands of Mrs Miliband.
You're "firmly" of that opinion because you want it to be true.
I'm "firmly of that opinion" because and with no false sense of modesty .... stop tittering in the back row .... I have a reputation for calling general elections both here and in the US correctly.
Neither are my opinions based in political bias. When Hague, IDS and Howard ran for office my contention was the same as it is now for Miliband.
You should just sit back, enjoy your good fortune, make a few shillings and thank me after the election as many others have done in the past !!
On what basis are you "calling" this one?
Your hilarious - and oh my, it is so side-splittingly hilarious - "ARSE"?
Or the fact that you dislike Ed Miliband and Labour?
I hold no personal animus for Ed Miliband.
However he falls into the same camp as Michael Foot and Kinnock for Labour and Hague, IDS and Howard do for the Conservatives. The British voters were not prepared to hand the highest office in the land to them.
UK PLC might tempt them all mid term, flash a curvaceous political ankle their way, invite them to an intimate candle lit fish supper dinner for two .... but oh dear at the altar they all find the voter has gathered up the wedding dress and opted for Gretna Green and the ex boyfriend.
Two of the last four seasons have gone down to the final race anyway. The other two years Vettel had won about 60% into the season. So, this is both gimmicky and stupid, and probably won't change anything anyway.
Double points is absolute nonsense, and an indication that the system is borken.
As I have said passim, to varying amounts of hilarity, the solution is to do weight handicapping as happens in the BTCC. It would make races more varied (people can still win with the heaviest penalty), acts as a cost cap, and levels the playing field wrt drivers - they get more opportunities to win and score points.
It may also allow the regulations to be streamlined. I'd love to see a diesel F1 car!
It goes against the ethos of the sport, but so does double points.
I'm always a tad perplexed that my poor old ARSE attracts such levels of opprobrium from some. It holds an unparalleled record for calling general elections correctly and PBers of all political colours have benefited financially in the past.
I can only put such base opinion down to rank envy in that my rippling rump continues to hold sway.
Much more impressive than Ed and Dave's offerings. Is it just me that finds putting a photo of ones self on a card extremely vain?
It's done so that the people who receive them can "name drop". Picture the scene, minor functionary hosting dreary drinks party, "why yes it is a personal card from the PM, didn't you get one?"
Nah, the real snobs focus on how it is signed. The lowest tier is pre-printed, then, you get a machine signature, then, a personal signature, then a personal top & tail and signature.
My Dad had great fun last year teasing me because mine was pre-printed while his was topped & tailed... ;-)
@Carola Would it be "philistine" of me to think it looks more like a lost soul from the "Tartan Army", still trying to find his way home from the last World Cup game?
It's the fourth wise man apparently.
Howson is very religious in his eccentric way.
It's a picture of a man who failed to achieve his objective. A curious and inauspicious choice by Salmond.
'The legend of the fourth wise man, based on an 1895 novel by American author Henry van Dyke, tells the story of a Persian scholar who, delayed by helping the vulnerable, followed the star to Bethlehem but arrived just too late to herald the birth of Jesus.Thirty years on, Artaban, who had become an old man, was still searching for Jesus when he saved a young girl from slavery. In a dying vision, he was comforted that his devotion to the distressed secured him entrance heaven.'
The embodiment of Eck's gradualist approach surely?
Anyway , Salmond's fixation with Christmas is profoundly un-Scottish. The ghastly festival was justly outlawed there until recently.
Don't worry, as in much of the UK the lurid orgy of consumption will descend into dyspeptic, alcoholic bickering at around 16:00 on 25/12/13. Come Boxing Day, apart from a few black eyes, it'll be like it never happened.
"Arrested because he joked about Mandela: Police hold shopkeeper for eight hours, take his DNA and seize his computer - after local councillor objects to off-colour internet comments
* Neil Phillips from Rugeley, Staffordshire, was also finger-printed * The 44-year-old insisted he meant no harm saying there was 'no hatred' * Local Councillor Tim Jones complained about the one-liners * CPS said they would not be prosecuting because of insufficient evidence":
The very darkest aspects of the new labour tactics, something that this government seems unwilling to change.
The incitement laws used to have a very high threshold for prosecution, needing permission from the minister before action to be taken. To ensure that freedom of speech was not infringed. This was all abandoned with racial harassment laws, in which 'stirring up' was much easier to prosecute.
Of course it is at this point of the electoral cycle. It's called give the government a kick up the ar5e when it doesn't matter and then come the general election public opinion will settle again.
Do you have any evidence for that or is it just a hunch?
You're neither a student of political history or an impartial observer of the prospects of Ed Miliband are you ??
No matter, you'll learn.
So no then. The grand 'I am the ever wise' tip is a bit wearing to be honest.
I note below that you appear to be a Powellite nutter.
I wouldn't have entered into a bet with you if I'd known that. But since I have, on the off-chance you win, I'm not donating your charity winnings to the EDL or someone, 'kay? If that's a welch, it's a welch.
Haha fair enough
I wouldn't say Im a nutter, but having read Enoch Powells Birmingham speech as a Labour voting leftie four years ago, fully expecting to hate him afterwards, I couldn't deny to myself that his predictions and fears, not to be confused with what he desired, were incredibly accurate. Further reading has convinced me that anyone considering him racist is very wide of the mark.
But anyway, if I win the bet you can donate the money to Cancer Research, or if you would rather not bet with me because I am a fan of Enoch Powell, then I will let you off the bet its no problem
No probs, even more happy to take money for my fave charity off a fan of a vile racist scumbag like Enoch Powell!
You know there are far better uses of charitable giving that cancer charities right? Firstly they spend an inordinate amount fundraising, secondly there is tons of private sector money and thirdly all the money goes to breast cancer research anyway which really doesn't need it but lends itself to better advertising than, say, glioblastoma multiforme, where it could do some good.
Ok. rant over. At least give it to Macmillian or something. Please.
Of course it is at this point of the electoral cycle. It's called give the government a kick up the ar5e when it doesn't matter and then come the general election public opinion will settle again.
Do you have any evidence for that or is it just a hunch?
JackW, well worth having another look at this PB article penned by OGH from May 2011 in the aftermath of the last Holyrood elections and aptly titled "Could Labour’s polling position just evaporate?". "Ten weeks in Scottish politics – what are the lessons? I’ve been meaning to put up this chart for some time because I’m sure that the polling experience leading up to the Holyrood election on May 5th will be referred to time and time again.
This shows the regional list where the changes were most pronounced. From a position just ten weeks before election day where Labour had a 14 point lead over the SNP voters on the day gave Salmond’s party an 18 point margin over Labour."
Quite so. I remain firmly of the opinion that when the nation finally faces up to the choice available to it come May 2015 they will not place the Downing Street net curtain tape measure in the hands of Mrs Miliband.
A good example fitalass.
One other factor to assess is whether Ed Miliband has any ammunition left outwith the roll out of some policies close to the manifesto period. Probably not, he's as much a prisoner of the economic situation as were the Coalition for their first three years of government.
When was the last time there was meaningful swingback to the government from 17 months out?
="Bobajob">
Can't find any example, unless you include dodgy polls pre-reform.
Ah, PB's resident chuckle brothers attempt serious polling analysis. When was the last time there was serious swing back to the Government in the 17 months before a general election? Err, at the last election. Indeed, on 26/11/08, ICM recorded a 15 point lead to the opposition. Far from that being the high water mark, in 2009 ICM recorded leads for the opposition of 19 and 18 once each and 17 three times. During 2009 Ipsos-MORI recorded a 22pt Tory lead, ComRes 19, YouGov 19, Populus 20, BPIX 22. The polling was incredibly volatile in late 2009, but in 2010 it started to tighten dramatically.
Two of the last four seasons have gone down to the final race anyway. The other two years Vettel had won about 60% into the season. So, this is both gimmicky and stupid, and probably won't change anything anyway.
Double points is absolute nonsense, and an indication that the system is borken.
As I have said passim, to varying amounts of hilarity, the solution is to do weight handicapping as happens in the BTCC. It would make races more varied (people can still win with the heaviest penalty), acts as a cost cap, and levels the playing field wrt drivers - they get more opportunities to win and score points.
It may also allow the regulations to be streamlined. I'd love to see a diesel F1 car!
It goes against the ethos of the sport, but so does double points.
I know a way to fix Formula 1. Give everyone the same car, dump the crap circuits and see who wins. A potentially great sport ruined by rules and the idiots who run it.
Of course it is at this point of the electoral cycle. It's called give the government a kick up the ar5e when it doesn't matter and then come the general election public opinion will settle again.
Do you have any evidence for that or is it just a hunch?
You're neither a student of political history or an impartial observer of the prospects of Ed Miliband are you ??
No matter, you'll learn.
So no then. The grand 'I am the ever wise' tip is a bit wearing to be honest.
Translation - I'm bored with JackW being correct.
So in the famous words of that other highly respected political pundit, Lauren Cooper -
I note below that you appear to be a Powellite nutter.
I wouldn't have entered into a bet with you if I'd known that. But since I have, on the off-chance you win, I'm not donating your charity winnings to the EDL or someone, 'kay? If that's a welch, it's a welch.
Haha fair enough
I wouldn't say Im a nutter, but having read Enoch Powells Birmingham speech as a Labour voting leftie four years ago, fully expecting to hate him afterwards, I couldn't deny to myself that his predictions and fears, not to be confused with what he desired, were incredibly accurate. Further reading has convinced me that anyone considering him racist is very wide of the mark.
But anyway, if I win the bet you can donate the money to Cancer Research, or if you would rather not bet with me because I am a fan of Enoch Powell, then I will let you off the bet its no problem
No probs, even more happy to take money for my fave charity off a fan of a vile racist scumbag like Enoch Powell!
You know there are far better uses of charitable giving that cancer charities right? Firstly they spend an inordinate amount fundraising, secondly there is tons of private sector money and thirdly all the money goes to breast cancer research anyway which really doesn't need it but lends itself to better advertising than, say, glioblastoma multiforme, where it could do some good.
Ok. rant over. At least give it to Macmillian or something. Please.
Oi! That's isam's charity nomination, not mine. I completely agree with you, and on Macmillan.
Of course it is at this point of the electoral cycle. It's called give the government a kick up the ar5e when it doesn't matter and then come the general election public opinion will settle again.
Do you have any evidence for that or is it just a hunch?
You're neither a student of political history or an impartial observer of the prospects of Ed Miliband are you ??
No matter, you'll learn.
So no then. The grand 'I am the ever wise' tip is a bit wearing to be honest.
Translation - I'm bored with JackW being correct.
So in the famous words of that other highly respected political pundit, Lauren Cooper -
"Am I bovvered ?!?"
No I'm finding the grand stuff wearing, as I said. FWIW I've been following politics closely for 25 years.
The polls are all well and good, but what politics are we going to be talking about after the Mandelathon has ended? Will we be talking about the deficit and Ed Balls, as George Osborne would like? Or will we still be talking about the cost of living, as Ed Miliband would like?
Of course it is at this point of the electoral cycle. It's called give the government a kick up the ar5e when it doesn't matter and then come the general election public opinion will settle again.
Do you have any evidence for that or is it just a hunch?
You're neither a student of political history or an impartial observer of the prospects of Ed Miliband are you ??
No matter, you'll learn.
So no then. The grand 'I am the ever wise' tip is a bit wearing to be honest.
Translation - I'm bored with JackW being correct.
So in the famous words of that other highly respected political pundit, Lauren Cooper -
"Am I bovvered ?!?"
No I'm finding the grand stuff wearing, as I said. FWIW I've been following politics closely for 25 years.
It's worth nowt, not next to Jack's infinite wisdom and hilarious - for it is side-splitting - "ARSE".
When was the last time there was meaningful swingback to the government from 17 months out?
="Bobajob">
Can't find any example, unless you include dodgy polls pre-reform.
Ah, PB's resident chuckle brothers attempt serious polling analysis. When was the last time there was serious swing back to the Government in the 17 months before a general election? Err, at the last election. Indeed, on 26/11/08, ICM recorded a 15 point lead to the opposition. Far from that being the high water mark, in 2009 ICM recorded leads for the opposition of 19 and 18 once each and 17 three times. During 2009 Ipsos-MORI recorded a 22pt Tory lead, ComRes 19, YouGov 19, Populus 20, BPIX 22. The polling was incredibly volatile in late 2009, but in 2010 it started to tighten dramatically.
The polls are all well and good, but what politics are we going to be talking about after the Mandelathon has ended? Will we be talking about the deficit and Ed Balls, as George Osborne would like? Or will we still be talking about the cost of living, as Ed Miliband would like?
We could end up talking about both.
Someone suggested the Tories acknowledge the cost of living crisis and frame it as an inevitable consequence of Labour's deficit.
As others have pointed, the cost of living crisis began before May 2010.
"Arrested because he joked about Mandela: Police hold shopkeeper for eight hours, take his DNA and seize his computer - after local councillor objects to off-colour internet comments
* Neil Phillips from Rugeley, Staffordshire, was also finger-printed * The 44-year-old insisted he meant no harm saying there was 'no hatred' * Local Councillor Tim Jones complained about the one-liners * CPS said they would not be prosecuting because of insufficient evidence":
The very darkest aspects of the new labour tactics, something that this government seems unwilling to change.
The incitement laws used to have a very high threshold for prosecution, needing permission from the minister before action to be taken. To ensure that freedom of speech was not infringed. This was all abandoned with racial harassment laws, in which 'stirring up' was much easier to prosecute.
I don't like the uswe of the phrase by the CPS "insufficient evidence to proceed". Does this mean "a crime has been committed but there is insufficient evidence to prosecute anyone for it", which seems unlikely in these cases as we seem to know who published what. Or is it "insufficient evidence than a crime has actually been committed" in which case, why not say so?
Of course it is at this point of the electoral cycle. It's called give the government a kick up the ar5e when it doesn't matter and then come the general election public opinion will settle again.
Do you have any evidence for that or is it just a hunch?
You're neither a student of political history or an impartial observer of the prospects of Ed Miliband are you ??
No matter, you'll learn.
So no then. The grand 'I am the ever wise' tip is a bit wearing to be honest.
Translation - I'm bored with JackW being correct.
So in the famous words of that other highly respected political pundit, Lauren Cooper -
"Am I bovvered ?!?"
No I'm finding the grand stuff wearing, as I said. FWIW I've been following politics closely for 25 years.
If JackW and his ARSE are a wee bit "wearing" for you then there is little to be done for you old fellow.
But just between us .... and I promise not to tell .... have a few quid following my ARSE. Look on it as a guilty little pleasure. That correct little winning ticket that you pull out of your wallet when nobody is looking .... then smile and tuck it away again.
"Arrested because he joked about Mandela: Police hold shopkeeper for eight hours, take his DNA and seize his computer - after local councillor objects to off-colour internet comments
* Neil Phillips from Rugeley, Staffordshire, was also finger-printed * The 44-year-old insisted he meant no harm saying there was 'no hatred' * Local Councillor Tim Jones complained about the one-liners * CPS said they would not be prosecuting because of insufficient evidence":
The very darkest aspects of the new labour tactics, something that this government seems unwilling to change.
The incitement laws used to have a very high threshold for prosecution, needing permission from the minister before action to be taken. To ensure that freedom of speech was not infringed. This was all abandoned with racial harassment laws, in which 'stirring up' was much easier to prosecute.
I don't like the uswe of the phrase by the CPS "insufficient evidence to proceed". Does this mean "a crime has been committed but there is insufficient evidence to prosecute anyone for it", which seems unlikely in these cases as we seem to know who published what. Or is it "insufficient evidence than a crime has actually been committed" in which case, why not say so?
This may help, or may help to confuse the matter more
Re cost of living crisis - nobody ever says that it is hard for many individuals to judge as their own circumstances change.
I can understand that an X year old person in job Y is say 3% worse off in real terms than 5 years ago.
However many individuals circumstances change - over a 5 year period you are (obviously) 5 years older but you may well have become more qualified and / or received a promotion etc. So you personally may be much better off even if the "theoretical" person in the same position isn't.
We also saw this with the average person in the public sector receiving a pay rise way, way above the supposed pay norms over the last few years.
OK, some people may have moved into worse jobs but it would be interesting to get data on the average person vs their own position 5 years ago.
"Arrested because he joked about Mandela: Police hold shopkeeper for eight hours, take his DNA and seize his computer - after local councillor objects to off-colour internet comments
* Neil Phillips from Rugeley, Staffordshire, was also finger-printed * The 44-year-old insisted he meant no harm saying there was 'no hatred' * Local Councillor Tim Jones complained about the one-liners * CPS said they would not be prosecuting because of insufficient evidence":
The very darkest aspects of the new labour tactics, something that this government seems unwilling to change.
The incitement laws used to have a very high threshold for prosecution, needing permission from the minister before action to be taken. To ensure that freedom of speech was not infringed. This was all abandoned with racial harassment laws, in which 'stirring up' was much easier to prosecute.
I don't like the uswe of the phrase by the CPS "insufficient evidence to proceed". Does this mean "a crime has been committed but there is insufficient evidence to prosecute anyone for it", which seems unlikely in these cases as we seem to know who published what. Or is it "insufficient evidence than a crime has actually been committed" in which case, why not say so?
This may help, or may help to confuse the matter more
Not really, there doesn't seem to be a "Has a crime been committed?" stage which I'd have thought would be a bit of a prerequisite.
Saying "there is insufficient evidence" is just weasel words, it implies the accused might have done something illegal, we just can't prove it. In these cases, we know they did it - they admit it - the supposition must be that it was not illegal.
Remember Watford Jack which you were sure the LDs would take in 2010. They didn't thn but stand a good chance in 2015.
A good chance??? Bar some strange local circumstances I think not. It'll be interesting to see whether Labour can win many seats from 3rd. Where they've got a good vote share, like Watford or Cambridge, it's a real possibility.
"Arrested because he joked about Mandela: Police hold shopkeeper for eight hours, take his DNA and seize his computer - after local councillor objects to off-colour internet comments
* Neil Phillips from Rugeley, Staffordshire, was also finger-printed * The 44-year-old insisted he meant no harm saying there was 'no hatred' * Local Councillor Tim Jones complained about the one-liners * CPS said they would not be prosecuting because of insufficient evidence":
The very darkest aspects of the new labour tactics, something that this government seems unwilling to change.
The incitement laws used to have a very high threshold for prosecution, needing permission from the minister before action to be taken. To ensure that freedom of speech was not infringed. This was all abandoned with racial harassment laws, in which 'stirring up' was much easier to prosecute.
At the same time the police continue to refuse to arrest anyone for FGM, despite the fact that apparently 1 in 12 women giving birth in Birmingham have been subjected to it.
"Arrested because he joked about Mandela: Police hold shopkeeper for eight hours, take his DNA and seize his computer - after local councillor objects to off-colour internet comments
* Neil Phillips from Rugeley, Staffordshire, was also finger-printed * The 44-year-old insisted he meant no harm saying there was 'no hatred' * Local Councillor Tim Jones complained about the one-liners * CPS said they would not be prosecuting because of insufficient evidence":
The very darkest aspects of the new labour tactics, something that this government seems unwilling to change.
The incitement laws used to have a very high threshold for prosecution, needing permission from the minister before action to be taken. To ensure that freedom of speech was not infringed. This was all abandoned with racial harassment laws, in which 'stirring up' was much easier to prosecute.
I don't like the uswe of the phrase by the CPS "insufficient evidence to proceed". Does this mean "a crime has been committed but there is insufficient evidence to prosecute anyone for it", which seems unlikely in these cases as we seem to know who published what. Or is it "insufficient evidence than a crime has actually been committed" in which case, why not say so?
This may help, or may help to confuse the matter more
Not really, there doesn't seem to be a "Has a crime been committed?" stage which I'd have thought would be a bit of a prerequisite.
Saying "there is insufficient evidence" is just weasel words, it implies the accused might have done something illegal, we just can't prove it. In these cases, we know they did it - they admit it - the supposition must be that it was not illegal.
"Arrested because he joked about Mandela: Police hold shopkeeper for eight hours, take his DNA and seize his computer - after local councillor objects to off-colour internet comments
* Neil Phillips from Rugeley, Staffordshire, was also finger-printed * The 44-year-old insisted he meant no harm saying there was 'no hatred' * Local Councillor Tim Jones complained about the one-liners * CPS said they would not be prosecuting because of insufficient evidence":
The very darkest aspects of the new labour tactics, something that this government seems unwilling to change.
The incitement laws used to have a very high threshold for prosecution, needing permission from the minister before action to be taken. To ensure that freedom of speech was not infringed. This was all abandoned with racial harassment laws, in which 'stirring up' was much easier to prosecute.
At the same time the police continue to refuse to arrest anyone for FGM, despite the fact that apparently 1 in 12 women giving birth in Birmingham have been subjected to it.
I have never understood why we needed a law against it, grievous bodily harm seems to fit the bill (although I admit there is a problem if committed abroad as GBH is not a crime where British courts claim extraterritoriality). Similarly surely a forced marriage = conspiracy to rape, and anyone going abroad to fight for an al-Qaeda affiliate should be charged under the Treason Act 1351 "giving aid and comfort to the Queen's enemies".
How is UKIP doing in the polls? Well, it depends which ones you look at. At the end of last month, one survey put the party on seven per cent; the following day another poll from a different company had them at 19 per cent."
Just caught a bit of ITVs the Agenda ft Chuka Umanna... There is talk of Bulgarian immigrants and what benefits they are entitled to, what Services they are able to use etc...
This just seems wrong to me... If people come here to live and work, they should be able to use the same devices and be entitled to the same benefits s everyone else. This issue is dangerously close to creating a two tier society, which could be devastating.
Just caught a bit of ITVs the Agenda ft Chuka Umanna... There is talk of Bulgarian immigrants and what benefits they are entitled to, what Services they are able to use etc...
This just seems wrong to me... If people come here to live and work, they should be able to use the same devices and be entitled to the same benefits s everyone else. This issue is dangerously close to creating a two tier society, which could be devastating.
Basically Jeremy Warner points out that the search for yield on what is practically free money goes on apace and seems to have become the base rock of western economies, including ours. The underlying situation is now at least as bad as 2007.
Whilst I remain optimistic about our short term growth over the next 12 months I do not think that this country or indeed any other western countries (with the possible exception of Germany) have come close to solving their underlying problems. Our economies have become based on consumption. Consumption requires demand. Demand requires the spending of money whether it is earned or borrowed. Any reduction in demand ends growth. But we cannot continue to grow demand unless we earn more. And we don't. In fact we earn less.
The excess consumption causes balance of payment problems. These problems are met in the short term by the excess capital of eastern exporters recycling their surpluses. But we are no longer credit worthy and cannot give them a return. Their economies, built on excess consumption in the west are vulnerable. And we are bankrupt.
I cannot honestly see a way out of this. It is why we are still borrowing £9bn a month to fund basic services and think they are underfunded. Better than the £12.5bn the last government peaked at but we are only falling slightly more slowly.
It is why we cannot eliminate or even reduce our trade deficit. It is why we have to sell more and more of our assets. The next decade is going to be hard with our standard of living falling more often than not. We are in serious trouble and Warner touches on why.
Just caught a bit of ITVs the Agenda ft Chuka Umanna... There is talk of Bulgarian immigrants and what benefits they are entitled to, what Services they are able to use etc...
This just seems wrong to me... If people come here to live and work, they should be able to use the same devices and be entitled to the same benefits s everyone else. This issue is dangerously close to creating a two tier society, which could be devastating.
The polls are all well and good, but what politics are we going to be talking about after the Mandelathon has ended? Will we be talking about the deficit and Ed Balls, as George Osborne would like? Or will we still be talking about the cost of living, as Ed Miliband would like?
We won't be taking much about the deficit if Ozzy has any sense. A) It's still gigantic and most of the public don't have the faintest idea what it is.
apparently 1 in 12 women giving birth in Birmingham have been subjected to [FGM].
Citation needed. Last time I saw this claim it was about a _particular_ hospital in Birmingham, but I'm guessing it had already gone several rounds of Chinese whispers before it got to that point.
Just caught a bit of ITVs the Agenda ft Chuka Umanna... There is talk of Bulgarian immigrants and what benefits they are entitled to, what Services they are able to use etc...
This just seems wrong to me... If people come here to live and work, they should be able to use the same devices and be entitled to the same benefits s everyone else. This issue is dangerously close to creating a two tier society, which could be devastating.
No one should be an official 2nd class citizen
But a Bulgarian coming here isn't a citizen.
So who here at the moment isn't a citizen?
Er... anyone who isn't one. Bit of a stupid question if you ask me.
apparently 1 in 12 women giving birth in Birmingham have been subjected to [FGM].
Citation needed. Last time I saw this claim it was about a _particular_ hospital in Birmingham, but I'm guessing it had already gone several rounds of Chinese whispers before it got to that point.
A Birmingham city councillor posted this information on the VoteUK message forum a few days ago, someone I regard as a reliable source.
I don't usually post crap information if I can help it.
"The date of the 1931 census of England, Wales and Scotland was the night of Sunday 26 April 1931. The entire census including schedules, enumeration books and plans were destroyed in a fire at the Office of Works store at Hayes, Middlesex on Saturday 19 December 1942. The fire was not due to enemy bombing in the second world war but was due to an unexplained incident."
Just caught a bit of ITVs the Agenda ft Chuka Umanna... There is talk of Bulgarian immigrants and what benefits they are entitled to, what Services they are able to use etc...
This just seems wrong to me... If people come here to live and work, they should be able to use the same devices and be entitled to the same benefits s everyone else. This issue is dangerously close to creating a two tier society, which could be devastating.
No one should be an official 2nd class citizen
But a Bulgarian coming here isn't a citizen.
So who here at the moment isn't a citizen?
Er... anyone who isn't one. Bit of a stupid question if you ask me.
Wasn't being sarcastic or argumentative, what defines a citizen asa opposed to someone who isn't. The vote?
Twitter Danny Blanchflower @D_Blanchflower 16m Much appreciated the support I am getting from those who realise the tory trolls & commentariat dont like the message I have been delivering
Alastair Stewart @alstewitn 11m @D_Blanchflower I think a little less sullying of those who disagree with your 'message' would achieve a better response, Danny.
Danny Blanchflower @D_Blanchflower 10m @alstewitn if they give it then i will give it right back - scurrilous attacks need to be defended - I am sick of the lies
Alastair Stewart @alstewitn 6m @D_Blanchflower but 'stick to O level wood-work' and 'buffoons' ? Is that how you'd correct an erring student? Just asking.
Danny Blanchflower @D_Blanchflower 17m @alstewitn maybe if the Labour Party was doing more of it I wouldnt have to...!
Alastair Stewart @alstewitn 13m @D_Blanchflower that is a different point but @edballsmp's response to Autumn Statement & treatment there-after may be instructive to you..!
apparently 1 in 12 women giving birth in Birmingham have been subjected to [FGM].
Citation needed. Last time I saw this claim it was about a _particular_ hospital in Birmingham, but I'm guessing it had already gone several rounds of Chinese whispers before it got to that point.
A Birmingham city councillor posted this information on the VoteUK message forum a few days ago, someone I regard as a reliable source.
I don't usually post crap information if I can help it.
What were his exact words, and where did he get it?
These details can completely transform a claim, even if the original bloke was immune from getting the wrong end of the stick, which would make him unique in the history of the internet. The version you've posted on this thread (Birmingham) is already completely different from the previous version (one hospital in Birmingham).
Twitter Danny Blanchflower @D_Blanchflower 16m Much appreciated the support I am getting from those who realise the tory trolls & commentariat dont like the message I have been delivering
Alastair Stewart @alstewitn 11m @D_Blanchflower I think a little less sullying of those who disagree with your 'message' would achieve a better response, Danny.
Danny Blanchflower @D_Blanchflower 10m @alstewitn if they give it then i will give it right back - scurrilous attacks need to be defended - I am sick of the lies
Alastair Stewart @alstewitn 6m @D_Blanchflower but 'stick to O level wood-work' and 'buffoons' ? Is that how you'd correct an erring student? Just asking.
Danny Blanchflower @D_Blanchflower 17m @alstewitn maybe if the Labour Party was doing more of it I wouldnt have to...!
Alastair Stewart @alstewitn 13m @D_Blanchflower that is a different point but @edballsmp's response to Autumn Statement & treatment there-after may be instructive to you..!
Can't believe for a second that Tories religiously follow and troll people they don't like. As if.
On which note, you seem to be following Danny Blanchflower's tweets, fitalass?
Just caught a bit of ITVs the Agenda ft Chuka Umanna... There is talk of Bulgarian immigrants and what benefits they are entitled to, what Services they are able to use etc...
This just seems wrong to me... If people come here to live and work, they should be able to use the same devices and be entitled to the same benefits s everyone else. This issue is dangerously close to creating a two tier society, which could be devastating.
No one should be an official 2nd class citizen
But a Bulgarian coming here isn't a citizen.
So who here at the moment isn't a citizen?
Er... anyone who isn't one. Bit of a stupid question if you ask me.
Wasn't being sarcastic or argumentative, what defines a citizen asa opposed to someone who isn't. The vote?
The legal definition is pretty clear.
The moral argument less so. Someone who lives here, someone who has lived here all their life, someone who was born here but might now live abroad etc?
Today, when I pointed out that the Populus showed another poll with Labour in the 40's, I was being told how the polls don't matter as it is 17 months to the election. To which I replied, when they are good for a certain party they are dissected to death and are all the rage. The certain party are ONLY 5% behind in this one.PB Hodges......thanks for proving my point.
I found it quite an interesting exchange to follow, that you think simple posting it here is trolling is bizarre. But I am sure that others here will have picked up on Danny Blanchflower's frustration at both the robust economic recovery now under way, as well as the lack of a Labour strategy to counter it.
Twitter Danny Blanchflower @D_Blanchflower 16m Much appreciated the support I am getting from those who realise the tory trolls & commentariat dont like the message I have been delivering
Alastair Stewart @alstewitn 11m @D_Blanchflower I think a little less sullying of those who disagree with your 'message' would achieve a better response, Danny.
Danny Blanchflower @D_Blanchflower 10m @alstewitn if they give it then i will give it right back - scurrilous attacks need to be defended - I am sick of the lies
Alastair Stewart @alstewitn 6m @D_Blanchflower but 'stick to O level wood-work' and 'buffoons' ? Is that how you'd correct an erring student? Just asking.
Danny Blanchflower @D_Blanchflower 17m @alstewitn maybe if the Labour Party was doing more of it I wouldnt have to...!
Alastair Stewart @alstewitn 13m @D_Blanchflower that is a different point but @edballsmp's response to Autumn Statement & treatment there-after may be instructive to you..!
Can't believe for a second that Tories religiously follow and troll people they don't like. As if.
On which note, you seem to be following Danny Blanchflower's tweets, fitalass?
Today, when I pointed out that the Populus showed another poll with Labour in the 40's, I was being told how the polls don't matter as it is 17 months to the election. To which I replied, when they are good for a certain party they are dissected to death and are all the rage. The certain party are ONLY 5% behind in this one.PB Hodges......thanks for proving my point.
Except you're comparing Populus with the Gold Standard.
Today, when I pointed out that the Populus showed another poll with Labour in the 40's, I was being told how the polls don't matter as it is 17 months to the election. To which I replied, when they are good for a certain party they are dissected to death and are all the rage. The certain party are ONLY 5% behind in this one.PB Hodges......thanks for proving my point.
Except you're comparing Populus with the Gold Standard.
Congratulations to @MartinBoon of ICM for his MRS award for his Wisdom Index approach to predicting elections
TSE - To the PB Hodges, the gold standard is the one that shows the Tory Party in the best light and it seems to move about the polling companies more than the Tory percentage in the opinion polls.
Twitter Danny Blanchflower @D_Blanchflower 16m Much appreciated the support I am getting from those who realise the tory trolls & commentariat dont like the message I have been delivering
Alastair Stewart @alstewitn 11m @D_Blanchflower I think a little less sullying of those who disagree with your 'message' would achieve a better response, Danny.
Danny Blanchflower @D_Blanchflower 10m @alstewitn if they give it then i will give it right back - scurrilous attacks need to be defended - I am sick of the lies
Alastair Stewart @alstewitn 6m @D_Blanchflower but 'stick to O level wood-work' and 'buffoons' ? Is that how you'd correct an erring student? Just asking.
Danny Blanchflower @D_Blanchflower 17m @alstewitn maybe if the Labour Party was doing more of it I wouldnt have to...!
Alastair Stewart @alstewitn 13m @D_Blanchflower that is a different point but @edballsmp's response to Autumn Statement & treatment there-after may be instructive to you..!
Can't believe for a second that Tories religiously follow and troll people they don't like. As if.
On which note, you seem to be following Danny Blanchflower's tweets, fitalass?
Blanchflower is an ass. A bloated pig's bladder: punctured. He should go and become a hermit in Anglesey in something. Seldom has a man been proved so wrong so consistently yet been so determined we should still hear his flatulent opinion (Will Hutton excepted, of course).
Do you troll him as well then? I thought you were UKIP or BNP or something?
Blanchflower has the advantage of being proven broadly right by 3 years of economic mess followed by a spendy pumping up of the economy.
Today, when I pointed out that the Populus showed another poll with Labour in the 40's, I was being told how the polls don't matter as it is 17 months to the election. To which I replied, when they are good for a certain party they are dissected to death and are all the rage. The certain party are ONLY 5% behind in this one.PB Hodges......thanks for proving my point.
Except you're comparing Populus with the Gold Standard.
Congratulations to @MartinBoon of ICM for his MRS award for his Wisdom Index approach to predicting elections
TSE - To the PB Hodges, the gold standard is the one that shows the Tory Party in the best light and it seems to move about the polling companies more than the Tory percentage in the opinion polls.
Twitter Danny Blanchflower @D_Blanchflower 16m Much appreciated the support I am getting from those who realise the tory trolls & commentariat dont like the message I have been delivering
Alastair Stewart @alstewitn 11m @D_Blanchflower I think a little less sullying of those who disagree with your 'message' would achieve a better response, Danny.
Danny Blanchflower @D_Blanchflower 10m @alstewitn if they give it then i will give it right back - scurrilous attacks need to be defended - I am sick of the lies
Alastair Stewart @alstewitn 6m @D_Blanchflower but 'stick to O level wood-work' and 'buffoons' ? Is that how you'd correct an erring student? Just asking.
Danny Blanchflower @D_Blanchflower 17m @alstewitn maybe if the Labour Party was doing more of it I wouldnt have to...!
Alastair Stewart @alstewitn 13m @D_Blanchflower that is a different point but @edballsmp's response to Autumn Statement & treatment there-after may be instructive to you..!
Can't believe for a second that Tories religiously follow and troll people they don't like. As if.
On which note, you seem to be following Danny Blanchflower's tweets, fitalass?
Blanchflower is an ass. A bloated pig's bladder: punctured. He should go and become a hermit in Anglesey in something. Seldom has a man been proved so wrong so consistently yet been so determined we should still hear his flatulent opinion (Will Hutton excepted, of course).
Only Paul Krugman had been as consistently wrong as Mr Blanchflower.
@SeanT: - “Seldom has a man been proved so wrong so consistently yet been so determined we should still hear his flatulent opinion”
The British journalist Robert Fisk, spawned the term ‘fisking’ - a blogosphere slang describing a point-by-point criticism that highlights perceived errors.
Can you think of a suitable descriptor for the term ‘Blanchflowered’ ?
Twitter Danny Blanchflower @D_Blanchflower 16m Much appreciated the support I am getting from those who realise the tory trolls & commentariat dont like the message I have been delivering
Alastair Stewart @alstewitn 11m @D_Blanchflower I think a little less sullying of those who disagree with your 'message' would achieve a better response, Danny.
Danny Blanchflower @D_Blanchflower 10m @alstewitn if they give it then i will give it right back - scurrilous attacks need to be defended - I am sick of the lies
Alastair Stewart @alstewitn 6m @D_Blanchflower but 'stick to O level wood-work' and 'buffoons' ? Is that how you'd correct an erring student? Just asking.
Danny Blanchflower @D_Blanchflower 17m @alstewitn maybe if the Labour Party was doing more of it I wouldnt have to...!
Alastair Stewart @alstewitn 13m @D_Blanchflower that is a different point but @edballsmp's response to Autumn Statement & treatment there-after may be instructive to you..!
Can't believe for a second that Tories religiously follow and troll people they don't like. As if.
On which note, you seem to be following Danny Blanchflower's tweets, fitalass?
Blanchflower is an ass. A bloated pig's bladder: punctured. He should go and become a hermit in Anglesey in something. Seldom has a man been proved so wrong so consistently yet been so determined we should still hear his flatulent opinion (Will Hutton excepted, of course).
Only Paul Krugman had been as consistently wrong as Mr Blanchflower.
Twitter Danny Blanchflower @D_Blanchflower 16m Much appreciated the support I am getting from those who realise the tory trolls & commentariat dont like the message I have been delivering
Alastair Stewart @alstewitn 11m @D_Blanchflower I think a little less sullying of those who disagree with your 'message' would achieve a better response, Danny.
Danny Blanchflower @D_Blanchflower 10m @alstewitn if they give it then i will give it right back - scurrilous attacks need to be defended - I am sick of the lies
Alastair Stewart @alstewitn 6m @D_Blanchflower but 'stick to O level wood-work' and 'buffoons' ? Is that how you'd correct an erring student? Just asking.
Danny Blanchflower @D_Blanchflower 17m @alstewitn maybe if the Labour Party was doing more of it I wouldnt have to...!
Alastair Stewart @alstewitn 13m @D_Blanchflower that is a different point but @edballsmp's response to Autumn Statement & treatment there-after may be instructive to you..!
Can't believe for a second that Tories religiously follow and troll people they don't like. As if.
On which note, you seem to be following Danny Blanchflower's tweets, fitalass?
Blanchflower is an ass. A bloated pig's bladder: punctured. He should go and become a hermit in Anglesey in something. Seldom has a man been proved so wrong so consistently yet been so determined we should still hear his flatulent opinion (Will Hutton excepted, of course).
Do you troll him as well then? I thought you were UKIP or BNP or something?
Blanchflower has the advantage of being proven broadly right by 3 years of economic mess followed by a spendy pumping up of the economy.
No. The general message of the crisis had been terribly simple: the state cannot prop up the private sector ad infinitum. Attempts to do so, whether in Japan or France, are doomed to failure.
Cameron and Osborne and Alexander have recognised this, and we owe them much credit.
Twitter Danny Blanchflower @D_Blanchflower 16m Much appreciated the support I am getting from those who realise the tory trolls & commentariat dont like the message I have been delivering
Alastair Stewart @alstewitn 11m @D_Blanchflower I think a little less sullying of those who disagree with your 'message' would achieve a better response, Danny.
Danny Blanchflower @D_Blanchflower 10m @alstewitn if they give it then i will give it right back - scurrilous attacks need to be defended - I am sick of the lies
Alastair Stewart @alstewitn 6m @D_Blanchflower but 'stick to O level wood-work' and 'buffoons' ? Is that how you'd correct an erring student? Just asking.
Danny Blanchflower @D_Blanchflower 17m @alstewitn maybe if the Labour Party was doing more of it I wouldnt have to...!
Alastair Stewart @alstewitn 13m @D_Blanchflower that is a different point but @edballsmp's response to Autumn Statement & treatment there-after may be instructive to you..!
Can't believe for a second that Tories religiously follow and troll people they don't like. As if.
On which note, you seem to be following Danny Blanchflower's tweets, fitalass?
Blanchflower is an ass. A bloated pig's bladder: punctured. He should go and become a hermit in Anglesey in something. Seldom has a man been proved so wrong so consistently yet been so determined we should still hear his flatulent opinion (Will Hutton excepted, of course).
Only Paul Krugman had been as consistently wrong as Mr Blanchflower.
Only Paul Krugman had been as consistently wrong as Mr Blanchflower.
.. which gives rise to a question: Is being lambasted by lefty economists a sufficient, as well as a necessary, condition for being shown to be spot-on in economic policy?
If Blanchflower were right, the solution to France's myriad problems would be for the state to increase its share of the economy from an - already extraordinary - 56%.
Labour's vote share in all the polls remains stubbornly- nay tediously - solid. It's where it has been since around June 2010. The Tories continue to jump about. But what we do know now is no ICM crossover in 2013. Remember when we were all talking about that just a few short months ago?
JackW and Fitalass are right - the Tories *should* win in 2015. But they need to start seeing Labour's vote share start to show some sign of weakness pretty soon I reckon for their optimism to be justified. As for me, I'll stick with what I've always thought about 2015: hung Parliament.
Only Paul Krugman had been as consistently wrong as Mr Blanchflower.
.. which gives rise to a question: Is being lambasted by lefty economists a sufficient, as well as a necessary, condition for being shown to be spot-on in economic policy?
The disturbing thing about that is, one of the 364, went onto become The Governor of the Bank of England during the credit crunch, I hope that's not an omen for Blanchflower.
Only Paul Krugman had been as consistently wrong as Mr Blanchflower.
.. which gives rise to a question: Is being lambasted by lefty economists a sufficient, as well as a necessary, condition for being shown to be spot-on in economic policy?
To me, the lesson we learnt in the early 1980s, the Swedes in the early 1990s, and the Germans in the early 2000s is that liberalisation of the labour market is by far the most important determinant of long term economic success. And this is a lesson the Spanish, Portuguese and Irish have all recently learnt too. The French, Mr Blanchflower, and Mr Krugman are the dunces here.
Fact: Franz Liszt downed 2-3 bottles of wine a day, 1-2 bottles cognac, + several tumblers of absinthe.
Friends noted Liszt “had a cheerful disposition".
Brahms and ...
I read somewhere that Lord Palmerston had a similarly spectacular intake. But wasn't booze much weaker back then? Even in my drinking lifetime there was a time when 4% for beer and 13% for wine was considered strong.
Fact: Franz Liszt downed 2-3 bottles of wine a day, 1-2 bottles cognac, + several tumblers of absinthe.
Friends noted Liszt “had a cheerful disposition".
Brahms and ...
I read somewhere that Lord Palmerston had a similarly spectacular intake. But wasn't booze much weaker back then? Even in my drinking lifetime there was a time when 4% for beer and 13% for wine was considered strong.
The same thought crossed my mind - however the "1-2 bottles cognac, + several tumblers of absinthe" would still have been considerably potent stuff. -
Fact: Franz Liszt downed 2-3 bottles of wine a day, 1-2 bottles cognac, + several tumblers of absinthe.
Friends noted Liszt “had a cheerful disposition".
Brahms and ...
I read somewhere that Lord Palmerston had a similarly spectacular intake. But wasn't booze much weaker back then? Even in my drinking lifetime there was a time when 4% for beer and 13% for wine was considered strong.
The same thought crossed my mind - however the "1-2 bottles cognac, + several tumblers of absinthe" would still have been considerably potent stuff. -
True. It does seem as if there were a lot more pissed people back in the day. What with all the alcohol and the layers of heavy clothing great Empires were built by visionaries who were permanently dehydrated.
Comments
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/25310466
*sighs*
Two of the last four seasons have gone down to the final race anyway. The other two years Vettel had won about 60% into the season. So, this is both gimmicky and stupid, and probably won't change anything anyway.
"Public opinion is so settled ...."
Of course it is at this point of the electoral cycle. It's called give the government a kick up the ar5e when it doesn't matter and then come the general election public opinion will settle again.
Quite so. I remain firmly of the opinion that when the nation finally faces up to the choice available to it come May 2015 they will not place the Downing Street net curtain tape measure in the hands of Mrs Miliband.
I wouldn't say Im a nutter, but having read Enoch Powells Birmingham speech as a Labour voting leftie four years ago, fully expecting to hate him afterwards, I couldn't deny to myself that his predictions and fears, not to be confused with what he desired, were incredibly accurate. Further reading has convinced me that anyone considering him racist is very wide of the mark.
But anyway, if I win the bet you can donate the money to Cancer Research, or if you would rather not bet with me because I am a fan of Enoch Powell, then I will let you off the bet its no problem
No matter, you'll learn.
Now we have enclaves that are breeding grounds for lunatics who feel no sense of Britishness whatsoever. Excessive immigration meant proper integration of everyone was impossible, and anyone who criticised it was labelled a racist (as we know from the revelations about Labour's decision to open the floodgates).
As an aside, the six arrested over the recent slavery case are travellers, apparently. Has gypsy been officially consigned to the dustbin of non-PC vocabulary?
Neither are my opinions based in political bias. When Hague, IDS and Howard ran for office my contention was the same as it is now for Miliband.
You should just sit back, enjoy your good fortune, make a few shillings and thank me after the election as many others have done in the past !!
"Ten weeks in Scottish politics – what are the lessons?
I’ve been meaning to put up this chart for some time because I’m sure that the polling experience leading up to the Holyrood election on May 5th will be referred to time and time again.
This shows the regional list where the changes were most pronounced. From a position just ten weeks before election day where Labour had a 14 point lead over the SNP voters on the day gave Salmond’s party an 18 point margin over Labour."
'Above all, people are disposed to mistake predicting troubles for causing troubles and even for desiring troubles: "If only," they love to think, "if only people wouldn't talk about it, it probably wouldn't happen." '
Yes, be careful... and remember, opposing mass immigration of white Europeans is racist as well
Your hilarious - and oh my, it is so side-splittingly hilarious - "ARSE"?
Or the fact that you dislike Ed Miliband and Labour?
I must admit that I share your view, but rather than a surge for Cameron it will be the desertion of Labour voters which will close the gap. They will drop below their 35% target.
* Neil Phillips from Rugeley, Staffordshire, was also finger-printed
* The 44-year-old insisted he meant no harm saying there was 'no hatred'
* Local Councillor Tim Jones complained about the one-liners
* CPS said they would not be prosecuting because of insufficient evidence":
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2520662/Neil-Phillips-quizzed-8-HOURS-police-Nelson-Mandela-Twitter-jokes.html
However he falls into the same camp as Michael Foot and Kinnock for Labour and Hague, IDS and Howard do for the Conservatives. The British voters were not prepared to hand the highest office in the land to them.
UK PLC might tempt them all mid term, flash a curvaceous political ankle their way, invite them to an intimate candle lit fish supper dinner for two .... but oh dear at the altar they all find the voter has gathered up the wedding dress and opted for Gretna Green and the ex boyfriend.
As I have said passim, to varying amounts of hilarity, the solution is to do weight handicapping as happens in the BTCC. It would make races more varied (people can still win with the heaviest penalty), acts as a cost cap, and levels the playing field wrt drivers - they get more opportunities to win and score points.
It may also allow the regulations to be streamlined. I'd love to see a diesel F1 car!
It goes against the ethos of the sport, but so does double points.
In 2013 and 2011 it would've made no difference, and in 2012 and 2010 the seasons went to the last race anyway.
And, with that, I'm off for the night.
Quite so gentleman.
I'm always a tad perplexed that my poor old ARSE attracts such levels of opprobrium from some. It holds an unparalleled record for calling general elections correctly and PBers of all political colours have benefited financially in the past.
I can only put such base opinion down to rank envy in that my rippling rump continues to hold sway.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead down to 5 - last week's 12 point lead was, unsurprisingly, a blip:
CON 33%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%
My Dad had great fun last year teasing me because mine was pre-printed while his was topped & tailed... ;-)
Here is a similar thing happening round my neck of the woods:
http://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/cumbria-police-arrest-two-in-racial-hatred-investigation-1.1074390
It was clear reading the article that not only had no offence being committed, it wasnt even remotely an offence. But the job was done:
http://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/racial-leaflets-court-case-dropped-against-cumbrian-bnp-pair-1.1097336
The very darkest aspects of the new labour tactics, something that this government seems unwilling to change.
The incitement laws used to have a very high threshold for prosecution, needing permission from the minister before action to be taken. To ensure that freedom of speech was not infringed. This was all abandoned with racial harassment laws, in which 'stirring up' was much easier to prosecute.
Ok. rant over. At least give it to Macmillian or something. Please.
One other factor to assess is whether Ed Miliband has any ammunition left outwith the roll out of some policies close to the manifesto period. Probably not, he's as much a prisoner of the economic situation as were the Coalition for their first three years of government.
Can't find any example, unless you include dodgy polls pre-reform.
Ah, PB's resident chuckle brothers attempt serious polling analysis. When was the last time there was serious swing back to the Government in the 17 months before a general election? Err, at the last election. Indeed, on 26/11/08, ICM recorded a 15 point lead to the opposition. Far from that being the high water mark, in 2009 ICM recorded leads for the opposition of 19 and 18 once each and 17 three times. During 2009 Ipsos-MORI recorded a 22pt Tory lead, ComRes 19, YouGov 19, Populus 20, BPIX 22. The polling was incredibly volatile in late 2009, but in 2010 it started to tighten dramatically.
A potentially great sport ruined by rules and the idiots who run it.
So in the famous words of that other highly respected political pundit, Lauren Cooper -
"Am I bovvered ?!?"
The cash I win from isam is going to Shelter.
Could well be random movement but just a hint that the lead MIGHT have ticked down a fraction from around 7% to more like 6%.
FWIW I've been following politics closely for 25 years.
Actual polling pales in comparison.
Ah, PB's resident chuckle brothers attempt serious polling analysis. When was the last time there was serious swing back to the Government in the 17 months before a general election? Err, at the last election. Indeed, on 26/11/08, ICM recorded a 15 point lead to the opposition. Far from that being the high water mark, in 2009 ICM recorded leads for the opposition of 19 and 18 once each and 17 three times. During 2009 Ipsos-MORI recorded a 22pt Tory lead, ComRes 19, YouGov 19, Populus 20, BPIX 22. The polling was incredibly volatile in late 2009, but in 2010 it started to tighten dramatically.
I merely asked a question. Chuckle Brother?
Someone suggested the Tories acknowledge the cost of living crisis and frame it as an inevitable consequence of Labour's deficit.
As others have pointed, the cost of living crisis began before May 2010.
Remember Watford Jack which you were sure the LDs would take in 2010. They didn't thn but stand a good chance in 2015.
But just between us .... and I promise not to tell .... have a few quid following my ARSE. Look on it as a guilty little pleasure. That correct little winning ticket that you pull out of your wallet when nobody is looking .... then smile and tuck it away again.
There's hours of illicit fun to be had !!
http://www.cps.gov.uk/publications/code_for_crown_prosecutors/codetest.html
................................................
On a more serious note. I hope the funeral passes off well.
I can understand that an X year old person in job Y is say 3% worse off in real terms than 5 years ago.
However many individuals circumstances change - over a 5 year period you are (obviously) 5 years older but you may well have become more qualified and / or received a promotion etc. So you personally may be much better off even if the "theoretical" person in the same position isn't.
We also saw this with the average person in the public sector receiving a pay rise way, way above the supposed pay norms over the last few years.
OK, some people may have moved into worse jobs but it would be interesting to get data on the average person vs their own position 5 years ago.
Saying "there is insufficient evidence" is just weasel words, it implies the accused might have done something illegal, we just can't prove it. In these cases, we know they did it - they admit it - the supposition must be that it was not illegal.
Taken from UK polling report, polling average of Dec / Nov 2008 from ICM, Populus, ComRes, Mori, YouGov is:
Con 41 Lab 34.
Final result, Con 36 Lab 29.
Applying the same level of "swingback" to current polling produces a big Labour majority....
http://www.cps.gov.uk/publications/docs/code_2013_accessible_english.pdf
How is UKIP doing in the polls? Well, it depends which ones you look at. At the end of last month, one survey put the party on seven per cent; the following day another poll from a different company had them at 19 per cent."
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2013/12/from-lordashcroft-counting-the-kippers.html
This just seems wrong to me... If people come here to live and work, they should be able to use the same devices and be entitled to the same benefits s everyone else. This issue is dangerously close to creating a two tier society, which could be devastating.
No one should be an official 2nd class citizen
Basically Jeremy Warner points out that the search for yield on what is practically free money goes on apace and seems to have become the base rock of western economies, including ours. The underlying situation is now at least as bad as 2007.
Whilst I remain optimistic about our short term growth over the next 12 months I do not think that this country or indeed any other western countries (with the possible exception of Germany) have come close to solving their underlying problems. Our economies have become based on consumption. Consumption requires demand. Demand requires the spending of money whether it is earned or borrowed. Any reduction in demand ends growth. But we cannot continue to grow demand unless we earn more. And we don't. In fact we earn less.
The excess consumption causes balance of payment problems. These problems are met in the short term by the excess capital of eastern exporters recycling their surpluses. But we are no longer credit worthy and cannot give them a return. Their economies, built on excess consumption in the west are vulnerable. And we are bankrupt.
I cannot honestly see a way out of this. It is why we are still borrowing £9bn a month to fund basic services and think they are underfunded. Better than the £12.5bn the last government peaked at but we are only falling slightly more slowly.
It is why we cannot eliminate or even reduce our trade deficit. It is why we have to sell more and more of our assets. The next decade is going to be hard with our standard of living falling more often than not. We are in serious trouble and Warner touches on why.
I don't usually post crap information if I can help it.
"The date of the 1931 census of England, Wales and Scotland was the night of Sunday 26 April 1931. The entire census including schedules, enumeration books and plans were destroyed in a fire at the Office of Works store at Hayes, Middlesex on Saturday 19 December 1942. The fire was not due to enemy bombing in the second world war but was due to an unexplained incident."
http://www.1901census.com/1931-census/
•Ted Cruz 18%
•Chris Christie 17%
•Rand Paul 16%
•Marco Rubio 10%
•Paul Ryan 9%
•Jeb Bush 8%
•Scott Walker 6%
•Bobby Jindal 3%
•Rick Santorum 2%
•Someone else/Not sure 11%
Gravis Marketing/Human Events South Carolina GOP 2016
•Chris Christie 16.6%
•Jeb Bush 16.0%
•Mike Huckabee 15.8%
•Ted Cruz 11.1%
•Rand Paul 9.7%
•Marco Rubio 7.2%
•Rick Santorum 2.8%
•Scott Walker 2.3%
•Undecided 18.5%
Danny Blanchflower @D_Blanchflower 16m
Much appreciated the support I am getting from those who realise the tory trolls & commentariat dont like the message I have been delivering
Alastair Stewart @alstewitn 11m
@D_Blanchflower I think a little less sullying of those who disagree with your 'message' would achieve a better response, Danny.
Danny Blanchflower @D_Blanchflower 10m
@alstewitn if they give it then i will give it right back - scurrilous attacks need to be defended - I am sick of the lies
Alastair Stewart @alstewitn 6m
@D_Blanchflower but 'stick to O level wood-work' and 'buffoons' ? Is that how you'd correct an erring student? Just asking.
Danny Blanchflower @D_Blanchflower 17m
@alstewitn maybe if the Labour Party was doing more of it I wouldnt have to...!
Alastair Stewart @alstewitn 13m
@D_Blanchflower that is a different point but @edballsmp's response to Autumn Statement & treatment there-after may be instructive to you..!
These details can completely transform a claim, even if the original bloke was immune from getting the wrong end of the stick, which would make him unique in the history of the internet. The version you've posted on this thread (Birmingham) is already completely different from the previous version (one hospital in Birmingham).
On which note, you seem to be following Danny Blanchflower's tweets, fitalass?
The moral argument less so. Someone who lives here, someone who has lived here all their life, someone who was born here but might now live abroad etc?
Good day all around for ICM
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 51m
Congratulations to @MartinBoon of ICM for his MRS award for his Wisdom Index approach to predicting elections
Blanchflower has the advantage of being proven broadly right by 3 years of economic mess followed by a spendy pumping up of the economy.
The British journalist Robert Fisk, spawned the term ‘fisking’ - a blogosphere slang describing a point-by-point criticism that highlights perceived errors.
Can you think of a suitable descriptor for the term ‘Blanchflowered’ ?
Cameron and Osborne and Alexander have recognised this, and we owe them much credit.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3623669/How-364-economists-got-it-totally-wrong.html
JackW and Fitalass are right - the Tories *should* win in 2015. But they need to start seeing Labour's vote share start to show some sign of weakness pretty soon I reckon for their optimism to be justified. As for me, I'll stick with what I've always thought about 2015: hung Parliament.
How's the Renaissance St Pancras? I saw the photo on Twitter earlier today.
To me, the lesson we learnt in the early 1980s, the Swedes in the early 1990s, and the Germans in the early 2000s is that liberalisation of the labour market is by far the most important determinant of long term economic success. And this is a lesson the Spanish, Portuguese and Irish have all recently learnt too. The French, Mr Blanchflower, and Mr Krugman are the dunces here.
I read somewhere that Lord Palmerston had a similarly spectacular intake. But wasn't booze much weaker back then? Even in my drinking lifetime there was a time when 4% for beer and 13% for wine was considered strong.