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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM’s phone poll for December sees CON get 3 pc closer
ICM gender divide on the recovery
Men say by 57% to 38%, that recovery is under way
Women say by 46% to 44% that it isn't
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Is a 5% Labour lead enough at this stage of the electoral cycle ?
No it certainly is not.
Progressives 49%
Assorted fruitcakes/loonies 41%
http://www.labour.org.uk/today-the-whole-country-stands-with-small-businesses-like-mine
Might have guessed they wouldn't be fruitcakes.
Scrapheap_as_was • Posts: 943
November 11 • edited November 11
Who will bet me that next months same monthly Guardian ICM shows a Lab lead of only 5% or less? I say it will be. Who says it won't?
Interesting times.
If minds are that made up, even the Magic Swingback Fairies might not be able to save the Tories.
Though this was one of those credit crunch polls.
Either side the Tory leads were 15% and 12%
""The poll also asked voters whether they were worried that the emerging recovery was based on an unsustainable new property boom. Overall, voters dismissed this concern – which has been raised by the business secretary, Vince Cable, among others – by 49% to 34%. Even in the south, where housing is so costly, 45% disagree with the suggestion that growth is fuelled by a property bubble, and only 35% agree.""
The fieldwork ended yesterday.
The above could actually be very encouraging for Con.
Because it means there is huge scope for upside - if we get 18 months of strong growth up to the GE and if by the GE most people are then feeling the benefit then it may feed through at the ballot box.
It's not surprising it isn't feeding through in the polls yet if most people aren't feeling it yet.
Populus
YouGov
All MOE.
Nothing is happening out there. Nada.
But I thought the Tories were adamantly insisting that all incumbent governments get a swing back as the election comes?
Scrapheap_as_was • Posts: 943
November 12
NickPalmer said:
I claim a small canvassing prize for tentatively identifying the weakening Tory position here yesterday on the basis of the last couple of weeks' returns. The "don't let Labour ruin it" line isn't working at all, as (a) people don't feel well off, and are irritated by the Tories claiming that things are getting much better and (b) they don't think there's much difference in how parties handle the economy. I think they should, so do others here (though with different outcomes), but most people really don't.
NPx - Did you accept my open offer of betting the next monthly ICM shows a lead of 5% or less then? No on else did so I believe - not exactly ringing support from the PBreds?
MikeSmithson • Posts: 1,061
November 11
This is a very bad poll for the Tories particuarly as it comes from a pollster with such a record for getting it right.
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tim • Posts: 14,309
November 11
The gender gap is stunning, and the leader ratings continue to improve for Miliband - it's firming up the 2010 LDs and has been since Syria.
Oh, and it's a good time to remember the PB Tory motto
The PB Tories are always wrong
The PB Tories never learn
For the record, on which of the remaining 514 days until the election do you forecast swingback-crossover to occur?
It was a credit crunch bounce poll, they were down to the 20s soon enough
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/21/icm-poll-data-labour-conservatives
But 2000 more people a day are in work and some of them can vote. Those that work in private firms will start to feel a little more secure in their jobs. The millions who still work for the public sector won't.
The tories need Labour down to the mid 30s and so far that is not happening.
On women not finding benefits from a recovery, it's easy. A higher proportion of women work in part-time, minimum wage jobs and the minimum wage is rising more slowly than inflation, so their wages are decreasing in real terms. It actually explains a lot of the gender divide that tim loves to highlight.
Economic competence means nought if the benefits of it can't be seen by man on the street.
Similarly, in the '01 and '05 elections, Labour did MUCH less well than the vast majority of polls in the 4 years before had indicated
The last 3 elections have all seen the governing party do WORSE than "midterm" polls had indicated (we have to go back to the 90s, when polling methods were much less sophisticated, to find any evidence of governments getting significant swingback). So I find the Tories' complacency, both here and in the media, quite strange
I would love to know what it would cost the government. Directly and indirectly they employ a lot of people on minimum wage. OTOH some of it would be clawed back from benefits for those on in work benefits, particularly women. Money is tight but it would be a good move and it would do the most good in the north where wages are lower.
Progressives (C + LD): 44%
Assorted fruitcakes/loonies: 46%
I expect polls in the last days of the election campaign to see consistent Con leads. I expect differential turnout to ensure the Conservatives remain the largest party with an prospect, although not large, of a small Con majority.
My ARSE presently projects a Coalition majority of 30 seats.
Still, even if the line is correct, the likelihood, barring disasters in the Eurozone or elsewhere, if that voters will be feeling the improvement, personally and/or in their immediate circle of friends and family, by the end of 2014.
David Cameron and Osborne retain their solid lead over Ed Miliband and the shadow chancellor, Ed Balls, as the team most trusted to manage the economy properly, with 39% backing the Tory pair to handle the economy, compared with just 23% who side with Labour's two Eds.
The government advantage on economic trust has been a constant of politics ever since the last election.....this month's 16-point gap is the same as that found in August, when ICM last asked who were most trusted on the economy.
If the polls are saying the same story this time next year, I'll be getting concerned. If they are saying it in April 2015, I'll be near suicidal.
But now? I can more than live with a 5% Labour lead.
@Felix - do you have any evidence that the LAB score is soft? Or is it just a hunch?
@Danny - and they say the Tories have but two states of mind, complacency, and panic....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25300010
Worth mentioning that until the Scots vote these polls don't matter much. If the Scots leave that'd shift the tectonic plates.
The figures would all be in the hundreds of millions though, not higher than that.
Corporations have shown over the past two years they are not going invest the significant net cash positions on their balance sheets so it's time to transfer that cash to the working poor. It's a very, very simple transaction.
Another possible divisive Tory policy that would help them harvest C2DE votes is a wage freeze in cash terms for higher rate public sector employees and a 5% wage cut for top rate state employees and a 2% rise for basic rate ones. Divisive, but it would be incredibly effective for the government in an election year to say "we're on the side of the working poor, and the aspirational classes, and don't just stick up for the rich and middle classes".
Honestly, I just don't think Dave has the cojones for either policy. Businesses would raise a stink (one that the Tories desperately need IMO) and donors would have a fit, while they may not want to rock the boat among higher rate public sector employees which includes nurses and teachers these days. Still, they have to decide what is more important to them, winning the most seats in 2015 (I think a majority is mathematically out of reach) or heading back to opposition while Labour make hay with their hard won economic gains that have knocked 5-7 points from their polling.
Looking at the 2010 result there is only minimal movement between Con and Lab in either direction. The two significant shifts have been the rise of UKIP (who are taking significant chunks of 2010 Con, BNP and Lab votes, in that order), and the collapse in LD support, which will benefit Lab much more than Con. Neither of these two factors are likely to be affected by an economic upturn, so that as things stand the most likely result is Lab Maj, closely followed by NOM with Lab largest party. However, there is still time for a rabbit to be pulled from the hat (perhaps the line DavidL suggests below on increasing the Minimum Wage - which could potentially give rise to some Lab to Con movement). If the Tories are simply relying on the economy for their salvation, I think they're going to lose.
The campaign for an independent Scotland has received a boost in a new poll commissioned by STV News.
Thirty-four per cent of those certain to vote in the referendum said they would vote Yes, up three per cent on STV's September poll on independence.
Fifty-seven per cent of certain voters said they planned to vote No, down two per cent on September, and a further ten per cent remains undecided.
Mark Diffley, director at Ipsos-MORI Scotland, said: “This poll will provide some encouragement for Yes Scotland as we enter the most crucial part of the referendum campaign, as it is the first time we have recorded an increase in support for independence in nearly a year.
http://news.stv.tv/politics/252342-stv-poll-on-independence-referendum-puts-yes-at-34-and-no-at-57/
I don't buy the immutable ideological coalition stuff propounded by Mike Smithson, Nick Palmer et al.
But we shall see one way or the other. The polls in December 2014 may make for decisive reading.
"I`m proud to be black" said a black man.
"I`m proud to be Asian" said an Asian man.
"I`m proud to be white" said a racist.
No comment needed.
None of the monetary savings amount to very much, but the message it sends is far more important than any economic gain IMO, it puts the Tories on the side of the working man for the first time since Thatcher and Major and it puts Labour on the side of the non-working underclass or just agreeing with government measures.
Yes 11/2 (Stan James)
No 2/9 (Betfair)
The Economist's "The World in..." series usually has some slightly potty "information".
This year's edition "The World In 2014" has a "Risk of Social Unrest" chart, with 5 categories: very low risk, low risk, medium risk, high risk, very high risk.
Both Britain and Thailand are in the medium risk category.
Singapore, which just had its first riots for 30 years, is in the low risk category.
http://www.euronews.com/2013/12/09/singapore-shocked-by-worst-riots-the-first-since-1969/
"Adebolajo sat in the dock of London's central criminal court, the Old Bailey, just yards away from Rigby's family as he gave evidence for the first time. He told the court he was engaged in a war against Western nations fighting in Muslim countries.
Adebolajo and Adebowale, both British citizens, have denied murder.
"I am a soldier of Allah. I understand that some people might not recognize this because we do not wear fatigues," Adebolajo said, flanked by five prison guards in the heavily-secured courtroom."
http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/12/09/21834488-i-am-a-soldier-of-allah-alleged-london-killer-of-afghan-war-vet-appears-in-court?lite
If I was a Scot I'd probably be in the YES camp.
http://www1.skysports.com/f1/news/12476/9065193/williams-hire-red-bull-lotus-aerodynamicists-as-rebuilding-continues
This marks a bit of a trend. Red Bull lost their number two (an aerodynamicist) engineer Prodromou[sp] to McLaren, and Lotus lost their lead engineer to Ferrari earlier this year. For Lotus, lack of money (which is baffling given their performance in 2012 and 2013) may well be a factor. Harder to see the issue at Red Bull, but I suppose having Newey as Eternal King of Engineering might be seen as a concrete ceiling on career aspirations.
Smedley's likely to join as well, although in a more senior position and not as Massa's race engineer (a shame, he's quite entertaining).
Of course the best prices may come very late in the day, even the last hours, but if Yes is trading at 13/2 at that late stage then it'd take a brave man to go against the tide.
Why only "probably"?
A glance at the leader ratings in Scotland soon shows who is most toxic out of Davidson, Salmond and Sturgeon. And it ain't the last two.
With Massa's experience and several top engineering hires I hope that 2014 and 2015 see Williams do better.
http://news.tes.co.uk/news_blog/b/weblog/archive/2013/12/09/mps-launch-inquiry-into-academies-and-free-schools-after-spate-of-controversies.aspx
The Conservative vice-chairman says that young people should be aware that the things they write on social networks now may stand in the way of their dream job in the future":
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/10468001/Michael-Fabricant-Teach-children-the-perils-of-Twitter-or-they-wont-get-a-job.html
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5314841/ed-miliband-christmas-card-2013.html
'Nicola Sturgeon has strengthened her position as the most popular of the political leaders measured. The Deputy First Minister has a net satisfaction rating (the proportion who are satisfied minus the proportion who are dissatisfied) of +21, up 7 points since May. Better Together leader Alistair Darling has a net satisfaction rating of +5, also up 7 points since May. First Minister Alex Salmond appears to have halted the decline in his satisfaction rating and now has a net satisfaction rating of +8, up 6 points since May.'
Net satisfaction amongst women:
Sturgeon +18
Darling +7
Salmond -4
Cameron -25
http://tinyurl.com/nuv6a8o
How bitter it must be for one of Dave's pom pom girls to accept he's poisonous with the ladies.
http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/local/perth-kinross/tories-trying-new-way-of-selecting-perthshire-candidate-1.163110
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-25215881
'Both this and Dave's pathetic attempt at a Christmas show how out of touch these people are.'
What does Farage have on his cards,a picture of Barroso ?
http://www.thisislocallondon.co.uk/news/10865392.Dartford_MP_Gareth_Johnson_readopted_as_Tory_candidate_for_the_town/
I hope No wins but can't see why it should.
"ICM finds 39% backing Dave/George to handle the economy best, compared with just 23% who side with Two Eds." This kind of underlying polling figures on who is best to handle the economy are a big anchor weighing the Labour party down right, especially considering that they are still seen as most to blame for our economic woes. And I can only see this gap continuing widen as the economy improves further and starts to trickle down further into people's personal confidence in their own job/wage prospects.
We have had Labour waste nearly three years complaining about this Government going too far, too fast with Plan A, now that meme has been completely debunked. Then we had the attempt to try to undermine the economic recovery by complaining it was the wrong type of growth. And now the Miliband/Balls latest hostage to fortune is the gamble that living costs will show no signs of improving right up until the next GE, at this rate the only flat-ling gesture needed will be for their polling when it comes to the economic blame game and current their incompetence.
Would it be "philistine" of me to think it looks more like a lost soul from the "Tartan Army", still trying to find his way home from the last World Cup game?
They accuse the high-profile chairman of the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Select Committee, of failing in her constituency duties.
Members of the local party association are being asked to back that decision.
Ms McIntosh refused to comment on the ballot of members.
A specially-called postal ballot will be held next month.
This is the second time in four years Ms McIntosh has faced such drastic action."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-25292065
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/weird-news/worst-family-christmas-cards-pictured-2905777
Ahhh....now that would be an ecumenical question...
Howson is very religious in his eccentric way.
I'm surprised Michael Crick didn't make a cameo.
A curious and inauspicious choice by Salmond.
Or just a whole bunch ofcheese!
I predicted after Clegg's conference speech that the Lib Dems would be going down, a view reinforced after his Cameron impersonation at PMQs.
Public opinion is so settled, the only question for me (barring "events") is whether Labour will have a majority or just have to settle for most seats. This mostly depends on the behaviour of Labour's legion of ex-Lib Dems that have been solidly with them since 2010.
Tractor stats on the economy won't save the Tories, nor will magic swingback pixies.
His is remarkably similar!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2520523/Christmas-greetings-Bongo-Bongo-Land-MEP-slut-wife-Godfrey-Bloom-reveals-self-mocking-card.html
I note below that you appear to be a Powellite nutter.
I wouldn't have entered into a bet with you if I'd known that. But since I have, on the off-chance you win, I'm not donating your charity winnings to the EDL or someone, 'kay? If that's a welch, it's a welch.
The embodiment of Eck's gradualist approach surely?