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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    malcolmg said:

    ukpaul said:

    Midlands deaths higher than London in the latest set. And North West up there as well.

    It seems to be kicking off more up here in Yorkshire now, as well. It appears that the focus may well be moving north of Birmingham for the next stage. Still not up to the level of London’s problem though.
    One would expect the number of cases as a proportion of total population to end up varying by region, with the most urbanized areas suffering the worst. We have all been asked to practice social distancing for a reason, after all. This is why, for example, it's no surprise that the East of England, which has no large cities, is suffering less badly than Scotland, which has approximately the same population but where most of the people inhabit the central belt.
    however Scotland count all deaths , care homes etc, as far as I am aware England do not , they only count hospital and then only if tested so not a great comparison. Deaths in Scotland are significantly below England even counting those factors, why is that.
    I've just been noticing the trends in the numbers of Covid-19 cases in hospital, as displayed in one of the charts that we're shown in the daily UK Government press briefing. The numbers for the South West of England are lowest; the East is in a similar place to Wales, which has a lower population but where most of the people are concentrated in the far South; and Scotland is running well above the East of England and only a little below the (significantly more populous) South East in terms of the current total numbers hospitalised.

    I doubt if the differences are attributable to issues such as Governmental competence because London and the devolved administrations have mostly been singing from the same hymn sheet through this crisis, and nor does it seem to be anything to do with resourcing because per capita public spending is not radically different between the various parts of the UK (Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all do better than the mean for the English regions on this metric, but it's not as if they vary by a factor of 2 or 3.) Thus, I wondered if the most obvious explanation might be population density? Obviously Scotland has a greater percentage of its population clustered in conurbations and a correspondingly lower percentage in the countryside than in the East of England or the West Country.

    I'm not aware of there being any major difference in the procedures for the reporting of Covid-19-related deaths between Scotland and the rest of the country, but not being an expert on that topic there might well be.
    The population density of the SW is probably less of an issue than the age profile: the place is full of old, independent people who are happy to lock down rather than die, thank you very much. We had the first hotspot in the country. Now we have the lowest number of cases (It was literally a tenth of the Yorkshire numbers per 100,000 when I last checked). They started self-isolating sooner and harder than anywhere else. But we still can't come out becuase of the risk of the virus being brought in from outside.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Raab up with Whittey & Valance
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    isam said:

    ...

    IshmaelZ said:

    Coronavirus: Thirteen die at Stanley care home

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-52268841

    72 bed home so that's 18% of entire population, with undisclosed number of further unresolved cases. Sobering.

    Over 50% of hospital deaths from Covid-19 are aged over 80, and the unreported deaths from care homes are estimated to be 50% of the total, so likely 2/3rds of all Covid deaths are 80+, and 6% under 40
    People over 80 don't matter - in fact, think of the money we're going save because they've died.
    Some Age UK stats:

    Older people in care homes
    • 400,000 older people
    • Average age 85 years
    • 66% Cognitive impairment
    • 40% depression
    • 75% classified “severely
    disabled”

    That depression stat is frightening (they all are). Personal decision but if that was me I'd wanna be euthanased. Not that that should dictate our policy in this instance.
    Truth be told, most people over 50 would probably be better off dead.

    And yes, you're right that ideally it would be a personal decision. But in the present situation we're getting to the point where younger people are being inconvenienced.
  • I'm continuing to be impressed by Raab.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    I saw earlier someone saying that the Spanish lockdown had been relaxed today. It has, but it remains significantly more severe than what is operating in the UK. So please don't get carried away!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    I'm continuing to be impressed by Raab.

    He can certainly read out long numbers.

    :smiley:
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464

    Stocky said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    isam said:

    ...

    IshmaelZ said:

    Coronavirus: Thirteen die at Stanley care home

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-52268841

    72 bed home so that's 18% of entire population, with undisclosed number of further unresolved cases. Sobering.

    Over 50% of hospital deaths from Covid-19 are aged over 80, and the unreported deaths from care homes are estimated to be 50% of the total, so likely 2/3rds of all Covid deaths are 80+, and 6% under 40
    People over 80 don't matter - in fact, think of the money we're going save because they've died.
    Some Age UK stats:

    Older people in care homes
    • 400,000 older people
    • Average age 85 years
    • 66% Cognitive impairment
    • 40% depression
    • 75% classified “severely
    disabled”

    That depression stat is frightening (they all are). Personal decision but if that was me I'd wanna be euthanased. Not that that should dictate our policy in this instance.
    I`m with you - though I`d have topped myself before getting to that stage.
    My son in laws parents, both in their late eighties, are in a terrible way with his mother in dementia care and his father needing hospital or nursing care and not able to get either, but both are fighting to live

    When you arrive in old age you may find it harder to face your own death
    I'm not (expletive deleted) giving up, either.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    edited April 2020
    deleted - been posted
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Stocky said:

    Alistair said:

    Quincel said:

    Ashcroft has has published some focus group stuff on US 2020 FWIW.

    The stat that hit me was that 7 out of ten Bernie supporters intend to turn out for Biden.


    Which shows a combination of how crap Biden is as a Democratic candidate and how off the rails some Bernie supporters are.

    At this point, given choice between the embalmed corpse of Lenin and Trump, I think that Lenin is preferable.
    Are the Greens running this time? Stern gave a place for Sanders supports to run to last time.
    They'll run, but for whatever reason the third parties (also Libertarians) aren't much of a factor this time (perhaps because their candidates were more notable in 2016). An underrated issue for Trump, I suspect. Overall I still think it's close but leaning Dem.
    Libertarians being less of a factor is good for Trump, they clearly leached GOP support from nevertrumpers
    I`ve being going in big against Trump/Republicans for a while. Topped up yet again today.

    At current odds I prefer laying Trump for Next President at 1.99 (1.97 this morning) rather than laying Republicans to win GE at 1.95. My reasoning is that I still hold a hunch that Trump may not run.
    I'm consistently building my Dem to Win position. I'm laying off when they go down to 1.9 ish and then building back up when they inexplicably rise.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    felix said:

    It is very funny - I mean we've not yet heard the result of the external investigation and then this complication is added. What a mess.

    I've got the leaked report. Planning to read it shortly.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020
    Charles said:

    Anybody still thinks we are going to get a South Korean type system without certain sections of the media making a hell of a racket and special interest grouping mounting long winded legal challenges....

    Somebody clearly very keen to leak to the Guardian all this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/nhs-coronavirus-app-memo-discussed-giving-ministers-power-to-de-anonymise-users

    Just wanted to check: the Edward Snowden they quote, he’s the international fugitive from justice who is hanging out with Putin right?
    I remember the days when Julian Assange was the darling of the Guardianistas...whatever happened to him?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,358

    malcolmg said:

    ukpaul said:

    Midlands deaths higher than London in the latest set. And North West up there as well.

    It seems to be kicking off more up here in Yorkshire now, as well. It appears that the focus may well be moving north of Birmingham for the next stage. Still not up to the level of London’s problem though.
    One would expect the number of cases as a proportion of total population to end up varying by region, with the most urbanized areas suffering the worst. We have all been asked to practice social distancing for a reason, after all. This is why, for example, it's no surprise that the East of England, which has no large cities, is suffering less badly than Scotland, which has approximately the same population but where most of the people inhabit the central belt.
    however Scotland count all deaths , care homes etc, as far as I am aware England do not , they only count hospital and then only if tested so not a great comparison. Deaths in Scotland are significantly below England even counting those factors, why is that.
    You didn't listen to the FM today then?

    Scotland announces daily deaths - hospital deaths tested positive for Covid-19.

    The same way as England & Wales.

    Then there is a weekly update which covers all deaths based on death certificates. This will cover any death that mentions Covid-19 on the death certificate, wherever they died, hospital, care home or at home. As it takes time for death certificates to filter through there is a lag,

    The same way as England & Wales.
    Can we therefore say that at some point of the week the numbers will be accurate for all countries in the UK and all will have been collated using the same methodology etc. If so do we know what day that is.
  • Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    isam said:

    ...

    IshmaelZ said:

    Coronavirus: Thirteen die at Stanley care home

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-52268841

    72 bed home so that's 18% of entire population, with undisclosed number of further unresolved cases. Sobering.

    Over 50% of hospital deaths from Covid-19 are aged over 80, and the unreported deaths from care homes are estimated to be 50% of the total, so likely 2/3rds of all Covid deaths are 80+, and 6% under 40
    People over 80 don't matter - in fact, think of the money we're going save because they've died.
    Some Age UK stats:

    Older people in care homes
    • 400,000 older people
    • Average age 85 years
    • 66% Cognitive impairment
    • 40% depression
    • 75% classified “severely
    disabled”

    That depression stat is frightening (they all are). Personal decision but if that was me I'd wanna be euthanased. Not that that should dictate our policy in this instance.
    Truth be told, most people over 50 would probably be better off dead.

    And yes, you're right that ideally it would be a personal decision. But in the present situation we're getting to the point where younger people are being inconvenienced.
    What a dreadful thing to think let alone say
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    ukpaul said:

    Midlands deaths higher than London in the latest set. And North West up there as well.

    It seems to be kicking off more up here in Yorkshire now, as well. It appears that the focus may well be moving north of Birmingham for the next stage. Still not up to the level of London’s problem though.
    One would expect the number of cases as a proportion of total population to end up varying by region, with the most urbanized areas suffering the worst. We have all been asked to practice social distancing for a reason, after all. This is why, for example, it's no surprise that the East of England, which has no large cities, is suffering less badly than Scotland, which has approximately the same population but where most of the people inhabit the central belt.
    however Scotland count all deaths , care homes etc, as far as I am aware England do not , they only count hospital and then only if tested so not a great comparison. Deaths in Scotland are significantly below England even counting those factors, why is that.
    You didn't listen to the FM today then?

    Scotland announces daily deaths - hospital deaths tested positive for Covid-19.

    The same way as England & Wales.

    Then there is a weekly update which covers all deaths based on death certificates. This will cover any death that mentions Covid-19 on the death certificate, wherever they died, hospital, care home or at home. As it takes time for death certificates to filter through there is a lag,

    The same way as England & Wales.
    I did indeed and knew how Scotland counted , but have seen varying articles on what is counted in England, some say care homes included some say not, some say only if tested some say all. Given they will not bother testing in care homes it could make a huge difference to the actual numbers reported.
    All deaths which mention COVID19 on death certificates, coroners reports etc are being reported by the ONS. As are deaths in Scotland by National Records, I believe.

    Doctors have written instructions (published) to report all deaths they believe *in their clinical judgement* involved COVID19, if no test was performed before death.

    The current tests do not work post mortum.

    *Involved - multiple causes of death can be entered on a death certificate, and often are.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    RobD said:

    I'm continuing to be impressed by Raab.

    He can certainly read out long numbers.

    :smiley:
    So can Priti, just not necessarily in the right order.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    The trajectory of the US on that chart... damn.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Are they waiting for Baroness Shami Chakrabati to come out of lockdown?

    (I can't beleive there will have recently been a run on whitewash.....)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    I'm continuing to be impressed by Raab.

    He can certainly read out long numbers.

    :smiley:
    So can Priti, just not necessarily in the right order.
    I'll give her a B- for effort.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    RobD said:

    The trajectory of the US on that chart... damn.

    Well Trump did say America First....
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    Stocky said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    isam said:

    ...

    IshmaelZ said:

    Coronavirus: Thirteen die at Stanley care home

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-52268841

    72 bed home so that's 18% of entire population, with undisclosed number of further unresolved cases. Sobering.

    Over 50% of hospital deaths from Covid-19 are aged over 80, and the unreported deaths from care homes are estimated to be 50% of the total, so likely 2/3rds of all Covid deaths are 80+, and 6% under 40
    People over 80 don't matter - in fact, think of the money we're going save because they've died.
    Some Age UK stats:

    Older people in care homes
    • 400,000 older people
    • Average age 85 years
    • 66% Cognitive impairment
    • 40% depression
    • 75% classified “severely
    disabled”

    That depression stat is frightening (they all are). Personal decision but if that was me I'd wanna be euthanased. Not that that should dictate our policy in this instance.
    I`m with you - though I`d have topped myself before getting to that stage.
    My son in laws parents, both in their late eighties, are in a terrible way with his mother in dementia care and his father needing hospital or nursing care and not able to get either, but both are fighting to live

    When you arrive in old age you may find it harder to face your own death
    Yes, I hear you BigG.

    My mum and dad are in their 80s. Mum is in a nursing home. Dad is on his own (with brief daily carer visits) and has Alzheimer`s desease. Under lockdown, of course, I can`t visit either. It`s tragic. I may never see them again and, equally importantly, they may never see each other again. They`ve been married for over 50 years and never been apart.

    My experience with mum`s nursing home has been an experience and an education. Mum exists. I wouldn`t call it a life. The living dead. The home banned visitors before the government advised them to do so. The care home manager was honest - she said "if the virus gets it it would be bad for business". These private homes are farming old folk for profit. Sorry - but that`s how I see it. I`m generally not for state ownership of things, but I`ve come to believe that private companies shouldn`t be allowed anywhere near this sector.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    malcolmg said:

    ukpaul said:

    Midlands deaths higher than London in the latest set. And North West up there as well.

    It seems to be kicking off more up here in Yorkshire now, as well. It appears that the focus may well be moving north of Birmingham for the next stage. Still not up to the level of London’s problem though.
    One would expect the number of cases as a proportion of total population to end up varying by region, with the most urbanized areas suffering the worst. We have all been asked to practice social distancing for a reason, after all. This is why, for example, it's no surprise that the East of England, which has no large cities, is suffering less badly than Scotland, which has approximately the same population but where most of the people inhabit the central belt.
    however Scotland count all deaths , care homes etc, as far as I am aware England do not , they only count hospital and then only if tested so not a great comparison. Deaths in Scotland are significantly below England even counting those factors, why is that.
    I've just been noticing the trends in the numbers of Covid-19 cases in hospital, as displayed in one of the charts that we're shown in the daily UK Government press briefing. The numbers for the South West of England are lowest; the East is in a similar place to Wales, which has a lower population but where most of the people are concentrated in the far South; and Scotland is running well above the East of England and only a little below the (significantly more populous) South East in terms of the current total numbers hospitalised.

    I doubt if the differences are attributable to issues such as Governmental competence because London and the devolved administrations have mostly been singing from the same hymn sheet through this crisis, and nor does it seem to be anything to do with resourcing because per capita public spending is not radically different between the various parts of the UK (Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all do better than the mean for the English regions on this metric, but it's not as if they vary by a factor of 2 or 3.) Thus, I wondered if the most obvious explanation might be population density? Obviously Scotland has a greater percentage of its population clustered in conurbations and a correspondingly lower percentage in the countryside than in the East of England or the West Country.

    I'm not aware of there being any major difference in the procedures for the reporting of Covid-19-related deaths between Scotland and the rest of the country, but not being an expert on that topic there might well be.
    The population density of the SW is probably less of an issue than the age profile: the place is full of old, independent people who are happy to lock down rather than die, thank you very much. We had the first hotspot in the country. Now we have the lowest number of cases (It was literally a tenth of the Yorkshire numbers per 100,000 when I last checked). They started self-isolating sooner and harder than anywhere else. But we still can't come out becuase of the risk of the virus being brought in from outside.
    The map from the app shows Dartmoor and Exmoor as hotspots for symptoms: https://covid.joinzoe.com/data
    Second homers?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    IshmaelZ said:

    malcolmg said:

    ukpaul said:

    Midlands deaths higher than London in the latest set. And North West up there as well.

    It seems to be kicking off more up here in Yorkshire now, as well. It appears that the focus may well be moving north of Birmingham for the next stage. Still not up to the level of London’s problem though.
    One would expect the number of cases as a proportion of total population to end up varying by region, with the most urbanized areas suffering the worst. We have all been asked to practice social distancing for a reason, after all. This is why, for example, it's no surprise that the East of England, which has no large cities, is suffering less badly than Scotland, which has approximately the same population but where most of the people inhabit the central belt.
    however Scotland count all deaths , care homes etc, as far as I am aware England do not , they only count hospital and then only if tested so not a great comparison. Deaths in Scotland are significantly below England even counting those factors, why is that.
    I've just been noticing the trends in the numbers of Covid-19 cases in hospital, as displayed in one of the charts that we're shown in the daily UK Government press briefing. The numbers for the South West of England are lowest; the East is in a similar place to Wales, which has a lower population but where most of the people are concentrated in the far South; and Scotland is running well above the East of England and only a little below the (significantly more populous) South East in terms of the current total numbers hospitalised.

    I doubt if the differences are attributable to issues such as Governmental competence because London and the devolved administrations have mostly been singing from the same hymn sheet through this crisis, and nor does it seem to be anything to do with resourcing because per capita public spending is not radically different between the various parts of the UK (Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all do better than the mean for the English regions on this metric, but it's not as if they vary by a factor of 2 or 3.) Thus, I wondered if the most obvious explanation might be population density? Obviously Scotland has a greater percentage of its population clustered in conurbations and a correspondingly lower percentage in the countryside than in the East of England or the West Country.

    I'm not aware of there being any major difference in the procedures for the reporting of Covid-19-related deaths between Scotland and the rest of the country, but not being an expert on that topic there might well be.
    The population density of the SW is probably less of an issue than the age profile: the place is full of old, independent people who are happy to lock down rather than die, thank you very much. We had the first hotspot in the country. Now we have the lowest number of cases (It was literally a tenth of the Yorkshire numbers per 100,000 when I last checked). They started self-isolating sooner and harder than anywhere else. But we still can't come out becuase of the risk of the virus being brought in from outside.
    The map from the app shows Dartmoor and Exmoor as hotspots for symptoms: https://covid.joinzoe.com/data
    Second homers?
    Isn't that where Johnson Snr relocated to?
  • Perhaps he will need a report on the report.

    In that case I would suggest a report on the leaking of the report on the report should be commissioned *now* to save time

    As should the report on the leaking of the report on the leaking of the report on the......
    Don't really agree with bottling it?

    They're now being investigated by the ICO, I suspect legally this is what they have to do because with the potential fines there won't be a Labour Party left.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    malcolmg said:
    You know his Dad didn’t leave him £10bn right? From memory he and his sisters each inherited about £12m (a very nice amount to be clear)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,358
    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    ukpaul said:

    Midlands deaths higher than London in the latest set. And North West up there as well.

    It seems to be kicking off more up here in Yorkshire now, as well. It appears that the focus may well be moving north of Birmingham for the next stage. Still not up to the level of London’s problem though.
    One would expect the number of cases as a proportion of total population to end up varying by region, with the most urbanized areas suffering the worst. We have all been asked to practice social distancing for a reason, after all. This is why, for example, it's no surprise that the East of England, which has no large cities, is suffering less badly than Scotland, which has approximately the same population but where most of the people inhabit the central belt.
    however Scotland count all deaths , care homes etc, as far as I am aware England do not , they only count hospital and then only if tested so not a great comparison. Deaths in Scotland are significantly below England even counting those factors, why is that.
    You didn't listen to the FM today then?

    Scotland announces daily deaths - hospital deaths tested positive for Covid-19.

    The same way as England & Wales.

    Then there is a weekly update which covers all deaths based on death certificates. This will cover any death that mentions Covid-19 on the death certificate, wherever they died, hospital, care home or at home. As it takes time for death certificates to filter through there is a lag,

    The same way as England & Wales.
    I did indeed and knew how Scotland counted , but have seen varying articles on what is counted in England, some say care homes included some say not, some say only if tested some say all. Given they will not bother testing in care homes it could make a huge difference to the actual numbers reported.
    The daily NHS stats are in-hospital only, whereas the weekly ONS stats include all deaths. I don't think that has ever changed.
    we should be looking at ONS for accurate numbers then
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    My son in laws parents, both in their late eighties, are in a terrible way with his mother in dementia care and his father needing hospital or nursing care and not able to get either, but both are fighting to live

    When you arrive in old age you may find it harder to face your own death

    Saw that with a close relative recently. 96 years old, ostensibly no quality of life for the last 3 of them, but did not want to go.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    IshmaelZ said:

    malcolmg said:

    ukpaul said:

    Midlands deaths higher than London in the latest set. And North West up there as well.

    It seems to be kicking off more up here in Yorkshire now, as well. It appears that the focus may well be moving north of Birmingham for the next stage. Still not up to the level of London’s problem though.
    One would expect the number of cases as a proportion of total population to end up varying by region, with the most urbanized areas suffering the worst. We have all been asked to practice social distancing for a reason, after all. This is why, for example, it's no surprise that the East of England, which has no large cities, is suffering less badly than Scotland, which has approximately the same population but where most of the people inhabit the central belt.
    however Scotland count all deaths , care homes etc, as far as I am aware England do not , they only count hospital and then only if tested so not a great comparison. Deaths in Scotland are significantly below England even counting those factors, why is that.
    I've just been noticing the trends in the numbers of Covid-19 cases in hospital, as displayed in one of the charts that we're shown in the daily UK Government press briefing. The numbers for the South West of England are lowest; the East is in a similar place to Wales, which has a lower population but where most of the people are concentrated in the far South; and Scotland is running well above the East of England and only a little below the (significantly more populous) South East in terms of the current total numbers hospitalised.

    I doubt if the differences are attributable to issues such as Governmental competence because London and the devolved administrations have mostly been singing from the same hymn sheet through this crisis, and nor does it seem to be anything to do with resourcing because per capita public spending is not radically different between the various parts of the UK (Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all do better than the mean for the English regions on this metric, but it's not as if they vary by a factor of 2 or 3.) Thus, I wondered if the most obvious explanation might be population density? Obviously Scotland has a greater percentage of its population clustered in conurbations and a correspondingly lower percentage in the countryside than in the East of England or the West Country.

    I'm not aware of there being any major difference in the procedures for the reporting of Covid-19-related deaths between Scotland and the rest of the country, but not being an expert on that topic there might well be.
    The population density of the SW is probably less of an issue than the age profile: the place is full of old, independent people who are happy to lock down rather than die, thank you very much. We had the first hotspot in the country. Now we have the lowest number of cases (It was literally a tenth of the Yorkshire numbers per 100,000 when I last checked). They started self-isolating sooner and harder than anywhere else. But we still can't come out becuase of the risk of the virus being brought in from outside.
    The map from the app shows Dartmoor and Exmoor as hotspots for symptoms: https://covid.joinzoe.com/data
    Second homers?
    The granulation of the color bar is a bit misleading there. 2.96% and 3.09% have very different colors.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    isam said:

    ...

    IshmaelZ said:

    Coronavirus: Thirteen die at Stanley care home

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-52268841

    72 bed home so that's 18% of entire population, with undisclosed number of further unresolved cases. Sobering.

    Over 50% of hospital deaths from Covid-19 are aged over 80, and the unreported deaths from care homes are estimated to be 50% of the total, so likely 2/3rds of all Covid deaths are 80+, and 6% under 40
    People over 80 don't matter - in fact, think of the money we're going save because they've died.
    Some Age UK stats:

    Older people in care homes
    • 400,000 older people
    • Average age 85 years
    • 66% Cognitive impairment
    • 40% depression
    • 75% classified “severely
    disabled”

    That depression stat is frightening (they all are). Personal decision but if that was me I'd wanna be euthanased. Not that that should dictate our policy in this instance.
    Truth be told, most people over 50 would probably be better off dead.

    And yes, you're right that ideally it would be a personal decision. But in the present situation we're getting to the point where younger people are being inconvenienced.
    What a dreadful thing to think let alone say
    Blimey, that's a relief! When I said 80 it was met with a chorus of approval. I wondered how low I'd have to go before anyone disagreed ...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    ukpaul said:

    Midlands deaths higher than London in the latest set. And North West up there as well.

    It seems to be kicking off more up here in Yorkshire now, as well. It appears that the focus may well be moving north of Birmingham for the next stage. Still not up to the level of London’s problem though.
    One would expect the number of cases as a proportion of total population to end up varying by region, with the most urbanized areas suffering the worst. We have all been asked to practice social distancing for a reason, after all. This is why, for example, it's no surprise that the East of England, which has no large cities, is suffering less badly than Scotland, which has approximately the same population but where most of the people inhabit the central belt.
    however Scotland count all deaths , care homes etc, as far as I am aware England do not , they only count hospital and then only if tested so not a great comparison. Deaths in Scotland are significantly below England even counting those factors, why is that.
    You didn't listen to the FM today then?

    Scotland announces daily deaths - hospital deaths tested positive for Covid-19.

    The same way as England & Wales.

    Then there is a weekly update which covers all deaths based on death certificates. This will cover any death that mentions Covid-19 on the death certificate, wherever they died, hospital, care home or at home. As it takes time for death certificates to filter through there is a lag,

    The same way as England & Wales.
    I did indeed and knew how Scotland counted , but have seen varying articles on what is counted in England, some say care homes included some say not, some say only if tested some say all. Given they will not bother testing in care homes it could make a huge difference to the actual numbers reported.
    The daily NHS stats are in-hospital only, whereas the weekly ONS stats include all deaths. I don't think that has ever changed.
    we should be looking at ONS for accurate numbers then
    Of course, but they take time to compile. I don't think there is much material difference between the approach in England and Scotland.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,358

    malcolmg said:


    *SNIP*

    Speaking at a Scottish Government media briefing this week, interim chief medical officer Dr Gregor Smith warned that areas of the National Health Service (NHS) not involved with coronavirus were "eerily quiet".

    I would imagine that this pattern is not peculiar to Scotland and is being replicated all over the UK. Presumably the product of patients who don't want to be a burden at the moment, or who are too afraid to access services because of the risk of picking up Covid-19 from staff or th, e sick in healthcare environments?

    There are probably going to be an awful lot of people who are going to end up needlessly sick, maimed or dead through the cumulative effects of this, plus all the screenings, routine appointments and elective surgeries that are being cancelled, whilst the healthcare system scrambles to deal with the virus.
    Yes my wife has basically had her treatment stopped, consultant said he would phone in a month to see how she was doing.
  • Chris said:

    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    isam said:

    ...

    IshmaelZ said:

    Coronavirus: Thirteen die at Stanley care home

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-52268841

    72 bed home so that's 18% of entire population, with undisclosed number of further unresolved cases. Sobering.

    Over 50% of hospital deaths from Covid-19 are aged over 80, and the unreported deaths from care homes are estimated to be 50% of the total, so likely 2/3rds of all Covid deaths are 80+, and 6% under 40
    People over 80 don't matter - in fact, think of the money we're going save because they've died.
    Some Age UK stats:

    Older people in care homes
    • 400,000 older people
    • Average age 85 years
    • 66% Cognitive impairment
    • 40% depression
    • 75% classified “severely
    disabled”

    That depression stat is frightening (they all are). Personal decision but if that was me I'd wanna be euthanased. Not that that should dictate our policy in this instance.
    Truth be told, most people over 50 would probably be better off dead.

    And yes, you're right that ideally it would be a personal decision. But in the present situation we're getting to the point where younger people are being inconvenienced.
    What a dreadful thing to think let alone say
    Blimey, that's a relief! When I said 80 it was met with a chorus of approval. I wondered how low I'd have to go before anyone disagreed ...
    I assumed, at both levels, that you were just a bit of a d1ck who was bored and trolling. So I ignored you. Suspect that applies to most.
  • Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    isam said:

    ...

    IshmaelZ said:

    Coronavirus: Thirteen die at Stanley care home

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-52268841

    72 bed home so that's 18% of entire population, with undisclosed number of further unresolved cases. Sobering.

    Over 50% of hospital deaths from Covid-19 are aged over 80, and the unreported deaths from care homes are estimated to be 50% of the total, so likely 2/3rds of all Covid deaths are 80+, and 6% under 40
    People over 80 don't matter - in fact, think of the money we're going save because they've died.
    Some Age UK stats:

    Older people in care homes
    • 400,000 older people
    • Average age 85 years
    • 66% Cognitive impairment
    • 40% depression
    • 75% classified “severely
    disabled”

    That depression stat is frightening (they all are). Personal decision but if that was me I'd wanna be euthanased. Not that that should dictate our policy in this instance.
    I`m with you - though I`d have topped myself before getting to that stage.
    My son in laws parents, both in their late eighties, are in a terrible way with his mother in dementia care and his father needing hospital or nursing care and not able to get either, but both are fighting to live

    When you arrive in old age you may find it harder to face your own death
    Yes, I hear you BigG.

    My mum and dad are in their 80s. Mum is in a nursing home. Dad is on his own (with brief daily carer visits) and has Alzheimer`s desease. Under lockdown, of course, I can`t visit either. It`s tragic. I may never see them again and, equally importantly, they may never see each other again. They`ve been married for over 50 years and never been apart.

    My experience with mum`s nursing home has been an experience and an education. Mum exists. I wouldn`t call it a life. The living dead. The home banned visitors before the government advised them to do so. The care home manager was honest - she said "if the virus gets it it would be bad for business". These private homes are farming old folk for profit. Sorry - but that`s how I see it. I`m generally not for state ownership of things, but I`ve come to believe that private companies shouldn`t be allowed anywhere near this sector.
    I have considerable experience of care homes and even DNR and they are intrinsic to our care system. Indeed so many have closed due to substantial loses I do not see a great profit in the system

    This lockdown is emotionally draining and the suffering of some is beyond compare.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Anti-Jeremy Corbyn sentiment within Labour hindered the party from tackling anti-Semitism, says a leaked report.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52271317

    I think this headline will be doing the round on twitter for ever and a day.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    Are they waiting for Baroness Shami Chakrabati to come out of lockdown?

    (I can't beleive there will have recently been a run on whitewash.....)
    I sense an opportunity to call upon the talents of Lord Falconer assuming of course that the rumours of his impending resignation are false :smiley:
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    ukpaul said:

    Midlands deaths higher than London in the latest set. And North West up there as well.

    It seems to be kicking off more up here in Yorkshire now, as well. It appears that the focus may well be moving north of Birmingham for the next stage. Still not up to the level of London’s problem though.
    One would expect the number of cases as a proportion of total population to end up varying by region, with the most urbanized areas suffering the worst. We have all been asked to practice social distancing for a reason, after all. This is why, for example, it's no surprise that the East of England, which has no large cities, is suffering less badly than Scotland, which has approximately the same population but where most of the people inhabit the central belt.
    however Scotland count all deaths , care homes etc, as far as I am aware England do not , they only count hospital and then only if tested so not a great comparison. Deaths in Scotland are significantly below England even counting those factors, why is that.
    You didn't listen to the FM today then?

    Scotland announces daily deaths - hospital deaths tested positive for Covid-19.

    The same way as England & Wales.

    Then there is a weekly update which covers all deaths based on death certificates. This will cover any death that mentions Covid-19 on the death certificate, wherever they died, hospital, care home or at home. As it takes time for death certificates to filter through there is a lag,

    The same way as England & Wales.
    Can we therefore say that at some point of the week the numbers will be accurate for all countries in the UK and all will have been collated using the same methodology etc. If so do we know what day that is.
    ONS and Ntional Records in Scotland will probably have the accurate numbers about 2 weeks behind, for any given date.

    There will be additional changes after that - post mortum completed tests and inquests may add/subtract.

    See -
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    A journo just asked if the ONS deaths data from death certificates will be put in the public domain.

    I mean, Christ, how do they get these journalism jobs?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464
    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    isam said:

    ...

    IshmaelZ said:

    Coronavirus: Thirteen die at Stanley care home

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-52268841

    72 bed home so that's 18% of entire population, with undisclosed number of further unresolved cases. Sobering.

    Over 50% of hospital deaths from Covid-19 are aged over 80, and the unreported deaths from care homes are estimated to be 50% of the total, so likely 2/3rds of all Covid deaths are 80+, and 6% under 40
    People over 80 don't matter - in fact, think of the money we're going save because they've died.
    Some Age UK stats:

    Older people in care homes
    • 400,000 older people
    • Average age 85 years
    • 66% Cognitive impairment
    • 40% depression
    • 75% classified “severely
    disabled”

    That depression stat is frightening (they all are). Personal decision but if that was me I'd wanna be euthanased. Not that that should dictate our policy in this instance.
    I`m with you - though I`d have topped myself before getting to that stage.
    My son in laws parents, both in their late eighties, are in a terrible way with his mother in dementia care and his father needing hospital or nursing care and not able to get either, but both are fighting to live

    When you arrive in old age you may find it harder to face your own death
    Yes, I hear you BigG.

    My mum and dad are in their 80s. Mum is in a nursing home. Dad is on his own (with brief daily carer visits) and has Alzheimer`s desease. Under lockdown, of course, I can`t visit either. It`s tragic. I may never see them again and, equally importantly, they may never see each other again. They`ve been married for over 50 years and never been apart.

    My experience with mum`s nursing home has been an experience and an education. Mum exists. I wouldn`t call it a life. The living dead. The home banned visitors before the government advised them to do so. The care home manager was honest - she said "if the virus gets it it would be bad for business". These private homes are farming old folk for profit. Sorry - but that`s how I see it. I`m generally not for state ownership of things, but I`ve come to believe that private companies shouldn`t be allowed anywhere near this sector.
    That, Mr S is a dreadful situation, and you have my total sympathy. I used to inspect Care Homes as part of my work duties, and then in retirement went on to advise them on medication handling, staff training and whatever. I have seen some really crap homes, and some really good ones. IME the worst private homes are the worst, but the best private ones were the best. The ex Local Authority ones, run by a not for profit company were OK, but a lot depended on the staff. One of the best I visited was run by nuns.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,358

    Charles said:

    Anybody still thinks we are going to get a South Korean type system without certain sections of the media making a hell of a racket and special interest grouping mounting long winded legal challenges....

    Somebody clearly very keen to leak to the Guardian all this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/nhs-coronavirus-app-memo-discussed-giving-ministers-power-to-de-anonymise-users

    Just wanted to check: the Edward Snowden they quote, he’s the international fugitive from justice who is hanging out with Putin right?
    I remember the days when Julian Assange was the darling of the Guardianistas...whatever happened to him?
    Is he not currently being waterboarded in some jail before being sent off to the USA so they can send him to Guantamo
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020

    A journo just asked if the ONS deaths data from death certificates will be put in the public domain.

    I mean, Christ, how do they get these journalism jobs?

    I stopped watching the Q&As, which esteemed publication is this particular genius from?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    IshmaelZ said:

    malcolmg said:

    ukpaul said:

    Midlands deaths higher than London in the latest set. And North West up there as well.

    It seems to be kicking off more up here in Yorkshire now, as well. It appears that the focus may well be moving north of Birmingham for the next stage. Still not up to the level of London’s problem though.
    One would expect the number of cases as a proportion of total population to end up varying by region, with the most urbanized areas suffering the worst. We have all been asked to practice social distancing for a reason, after all. This is why, for example, it's no surprise that the East of England, which has no large cities, is suffering less badly than Scotland, which has approximately the same population but where most of the people inhabit the central belt.
    however Scotland count all deaths , care homes etc, as far as I am aware England do not , they only count hospital and then only if tested so not a great comparison. Deaths in Scotland are significantly below England even counting those factors, why is that.
    I've just been noticing the trends in the numbers of Covid-19 cases in hospital, as displayed in one of the charts that we're shown in the daily UK Government press briefing. The numbers for the South West of England are lowest; the East is in a similar place to Wales, which has a lower population but where most of the people are concentrated in the far South; and Scotland is running well above the East of England and only a little below the (significantly more populous) South East in terms of the current total numbers hospitalised.

    I doubt if the differences are attributable to issues such as Governmental competence because London and the devolved administrations have mostly been singing from the same hymn sheet through this crisis, and nor does it seem to be anything to do with resourcing because per capita public spending is not radically different between the various parts of the UK (Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all do better than the mean for the English regions on this metric, but it's not as if they vary by a factor of 2 or 3.) Thus, I wondered if the most obvious explanation might be population density? Obviously Scotland has a greater percentage of its population clustered in conurbations and a correspondingly lower percentage in the countryside than in the East of England or the West Country.

    I'm not aware of there being any major difference in the procedures for the reporting of Covid-19-related deaths between Scotland and the rest of the country, but not being an expert on that topic there might well be.
    The population density of the SW is probably less of an issue than the age profile: the place is full of old, independent people who are happy to lock down rather than die, thank you very much. We had the first hotspot in the country. Now we have the lowest number of cases (It was literally a tenth of the Yorkshire numbers per 100,000 when I last checked). They started self-isolating sooner and harder than anywhere else. But we still can't come out becuase of the risk of the virus being brought in from outside.
    The map from the app shows Dartmoor and Exmoor as hotspots for symptoms: https://covid.joinzoe.com/data
    Second homers?
    Possibly, but as every second home in the South Hams seems to be occupied, I would have though we would have been hit harder.

    Transmission by sheep been ruled out?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    More journalists on the ball: "Will that data (on Covid deaths outside hospitals) be released to the public?"

    "All ONS data is public".....
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    malcolmg said:

    ukpaul said:

    Midlands deaths higher than London in the latest set. And North West up there as well.

    It seems to be kicking off more up here in Yorkshire now, as well. It appears that the focus may well be moving north of Birmingham for the next stage. Still not up to the level of London’s problem though.
    One would expect the number of cases as a proportion of total population to end up varying by region, with the most urbanized areas suffering the worst. We have all been asked to practice social distancing for a reason, after all. This is why, for example, it's no surprise that the East of England, which has no large cities, is suffering less badly than Scotland, which has approximately the same population but where most of the people inhabit the central belt.
    however Scotland count all deaths , care homes etc, as far as I am aware England do not , they only count hospital and then only if tested so not a great comparison. Deaths in Scotland are significantly below England even counting those factors, why is that.
    I've just been noticing the trends in the numbers of Covid-19 cases in hospital, as displayed in one of the charts that we're shown in the daily UK Government press briefing. The numbers for the South West of England are lowest; the East is in a similar place to Wales, which has a lower population but where most of the people are concentrated in the far South; and Scotland is running well above the East of England and only a little below the (significantly more populous) South East in terms of the current total numbers hospitalised.

    I doubt if the differences are attributable to issues such as Governmental competence because London and the devolved administrations have mostly been singing from the same hymn sheet through this crisis, and nor does it seem to be anything to do with resourcing because per capita public spending is not radically different between the various parts of the UK (Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all do better than the mean for the English regions on this metric, but it's not as if they vary by a factor of 2 or 3.) Thus, I wondered if the most obvious explanation might be population density? Obviously Scotland has a greater percentage of its population clustered in conurbations and a correspondingly lower percentage in the countryside than in the East of England or the West Country.

    I'm not aware of there being any major difference in the procedures for the reporting of Covid-19-related deaths between Scotland and the rest of the country, but not being an expert on that topic there might well be.
    The population density of the SW is probably less of an issue than the age profile: the place is full of old, independent people who are happy to lock down rather than die, thank you very much. We had the first hotspot in the country. Now we have the lowest number of cases (It was literally a tenth of the Yorkshire numbers per 100,000 when I last checked). They started self-isolating sooner and harder than anywhere else. But we still can't come out becuase of the risk of the virus being brought in from outside.
    The map from the app shows Dartmoor and Exmoor as hotspots for symptoms: https://covid.joinzoe.com/data
    Second homers?
    The granulation of the color bar is a bit misleading there. 2.96% and 3.09% have very different colors.
    Having checked the colours with the eye dropper extension in Chrome, Dartmoor and Exmoor are 3-4% in a sea of 0-2%. Actually I can't find anywhere on the map in the 2-3% band.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    isam said:

    ...

    IshmaelZ said:

    Coronavirus: Thirteen die at Stanley care home

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-52268841

    72 bed home so that's 18% of entire population, with undisclosed number of further unresolved cases. Sobering.

    Over 50% of hospital deaths from Covid-19 are aged over 80, and the unreported deaths from care homes are estimated to be 50% of the total, so likely 2/3rds of all Covid deaths are 80+, and 6% under 40
    People over 80 don't matter - in fact, think of the money we're going save because they've died.
    Some Age UK stats:

    Older people in care homes
    • 400,000 older people
    • Average age 85 years
    • 66% Cognitive impairment
    • 40% depression
    • 75% classified “severely
    disabled”

    That depression stat is frightening (they all are). Personal decision but if that was me I'd wanna be euthanased. Not that that should dictate our policy in this instance.
    Truth be told, most people over 50 would probably be better off dead.

    And yes, you're right that ideally it would be a personal decision. But in the present situation we're getting to the point where younger people are being inconvenienced.
    What a dreadful thing to think let alone say
    Blimey, that's a relief! When I said 80 it was met with a chorus of approval. I wondered how low I'd have to go before anyone disagreed ...
    I assumed, at both levels, that you were just a bit of a d1ck who was bored and trolling. So I ignored you. Suspect that applies to most.
    For "trolling", surely read "accurately representing the sentiments of those who want the lockdown lifted to ease the effect on their bank balances"?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,358
    Charles said:

    malcolmg said:
    You know his Dad didn’t leave him £10bn right? From memory he and his sisters each inherited about £12m (a very nice amount to be clear)
    That was for the taxman Charles , how much in the tax havens.
  • Oh Lord, Raab just called it PPI.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    It's time for the government to dump Huawei from 5G.

    I'm looking forward to getting my Huawei Mate Xs this week.
    There's been rumours at work that the company is about to ban Huawei devices for any work correspondence. Not such a big deal for me as I get a device, but loads of junior level people don't and you need to be contactible pretty much at any time and have access to work emails at any time too. Then again, I haven't seen a lot of people with Huawei devices, mostly iPhones and Samsungs.
    Staff are expected to purchase their own device in order to access work emails?

    The employer needs to be told to feck right off.
    Lol as if anyone who works for us doesn't have a smartphone.
    That’s not the point. You have highlighted that the company may decide that some people have the wrong make of phone and expect them to buy a replacement. That is simply not acceptable.
    I've actually had that at work -

    Employee - "The login token app won't install on my phone"
    Support - "You need to have a phone of the following spec x"
    E - "I refuse to replace my phone"
    S - "Nothing we can do"
    E - "I'll call my manager"
    Manger - "You don't qualify for a company phone. We have stopped handing out hard tokens. either change your phone or no remote working"
    So then the manager can't let their employee know that the meeting in London has been cancelled, and they waste half the day and £300 on a pointless journey.

    False economy not giving staff a phone.
    The Government has told employers that people should be working from home if they are able to do so.

    The employee should therefore shop the employer to the police.

    If they're really lucky the employer will be located in Derbyshire, which should help to move things along a bit... :smile:
    Alternatively, the employee failed to answer the phone call/text from the manager. So travelled for a non-urgent purpose.

    Sadly he/she was shot as a precautionary measure by Cambridge police, following a risk assessment into the threat they represented.

    His/her replacement was strongly advised by the line manager to have a phone of the correct type.
    Granted, the Cambridgeshire Constabulary are also especially zealous. They're particularly effective at harassing people on their way to work, including staff from Addenbrookes Hospital who have been interrogated as to the necessity of their journeys even after producing their NHS staff passes.

    Living in Hertfordshire but right on the border, I can confirm that there is, as yet, no evidence of a flow of refugees fleeing this brutal new regime, but I fear it may merely be a matter of time.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    This is f*****g hilarious - nice to have some light relief from the pandemic with the party that never knowingly gets its priorities wrong.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    edited April 2020

    More journalists on the ball: "Will that data (on Covid deaths outside hospitals) be released to the public?"

    "All ONS data is public".....

    Released to the public seems to mean spoken about by the in gang of trendy journalists rather than freely and quickly available to anyone.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    A journo just asked if the ONS deaths data from death certificates will be put in the public domain.

    I mean, Christ, how do they get these journalism jobs?

    I stopped watching the Q&As, which esteemed publication is this particular genius from?
    I missed that detail.

    Pretty sure a basic journalism course would cover public sources of basic data for local news e.g. births/deaths, coroners office, police station overnight reports etc.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    malcolmg said:

    Charles said:

    Anybody still thinks we are going to get a South Korean type system without certain sections of the media making a hell of a racket and special interest grouping mounting long winded legal challenges....

    Somebody clearly very keen to leak to the Guardian all this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/nhs-coronavirus-app-memo-discussed-giving-ministers-power-to-de-anonymise-users

    Just wanted to check: the Edward Snowden they quote, he’s the international fugitive from justice who is hanging out with Putin right?
    I remember the days when Julian Assange was the darling of the Guardianistas...whatever happened to him?
    Is he not currently being waterboarded in some jail before being sent off to the USA so they can send him to Guantamo
    We can only hope....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    malcolmg said:

    ukpaul said:

    Midlands deaths higher than London in the latest set. And North West up there as well.

    It seems to be kicking off more up here in Yorkshire now, as well. It appears that the focus may well be moving north of Birmingham for the next stage. Still not up to the level of London’s problem though.
    One would expect the number of cases as a proportion of total population to end up varying by region, with the most urbanized areas suffering the worst. We have all been asked to practice social distancing for a reason, after all. This is why, for example, it's no surprise that the East of England, which has no large cities, is suffering less badly than Scotland, which has approximately the same population but where most of the people inhabit the central belt.
    however Scotland count all deaths , care homes etc, as far as I am aware England do not , they only count hospital and then only if tested so not a great comparison. Deaths in Scotland are significantly below England even counting those factors, why is that.
    I've just been noticing the trends in the numbers of Covid-19 cases in hospital, as displayed in one of the charts that we're shown in the daily UK Government press briefing. The numbers for the South West of England are lowest; the East is in a similar place to Wales, which has a lower population but where most of the people are concentrated in the far South; and Scotland is running well above the East of England and only a little below the (significantly more populous) South East in terms of the current total numbers hospitalised.

    I doubt if the differences are attributable to issues such as Governmental competence because London and the devolved administrations have mostly been singing from the same hymn sheet through this crisis, and nor does it seem to be anything to do with resourcing because per capita public spending is not radically different between the various parts of the UK (Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all do better than the mean for the English regions on this metric, but it's not as if they vary by a factor of 2 or 3.) Thus, I wondered if the most obvious explanation might be population density? Obviously Scotland has a greater percentage of its population clustered in conurbations and a correspondingly lower percentage in the countryside than in the East of England or the West Country.

    I'm not aware of there being any major difference in the procedures for the reporting of Covid-19-related deaths between Scotland and the rest of the country, but not being an expert on that topic there might well be.
    The population density of the SW is probably less of an issue than the age profile: the place is full of old, independent people who are happy to lock down rather than die, thank you very much. We had the first hotspot in the country. Now we have the lowest number of cases (It was literally a tenth of the Yorkshire numbers per 100,000 when I last checked). They started self-isolating sooner and harder than anywhere else. But we still can't come out becuase of the risk of the virus being brought in from outside.
    The map from the app shows Dartmoor and Exmoor as hotspots for symptoms: https://covid.joinzoe.com/data
    Second homers?
    The granulation of the color bar is a bit misleading there. 2.96% and 3.09% have very different colors.
    Having checked the colours with the eye dropper extension in Chrome, Dartmoor and Exmoor are 3-4% in a sea of 0-2%. Actually I can't find anywhere on the map in the 2-3% band.
    You can mouse over the region and it gives you the exact percentage. Those two are neighbouring regions (Torridge and Oakhampton) in the South west where that supposed hotspot is. My point is they look like a hotspot just because of the arbitrary choice of the color bins.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    More journalists on the ball: "Will that data (on Covid deaths outside hospitals) be released to the public?"

    "All ONS data is public".....

    Nor is it exactly the first time we've had this same question about the death in care homes reporting issue raised at one of these briefings, to which one or other of the Government advisers has given a slow and patient response.

    Still doesn't seem to be sinking in though.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,358
    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    isam said:

    ...

    IshmaelZ said:

    Coronavirus: Thirteen die at Stanley care home

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-52268841

    72 bed home so that's 18% of entire population, with undisclosed number of further unresolved cases. Sobering.

    Over 50% of hospital deaths from Covid-19 are aged over 80, and the unreported deaths from care homes are estimated to be 50% of the total, so likely 2/3rds of all Covid deaths are 80+, and 6% under 40
    People over 80 don't matter - in fact, think of the money we're going save because they've died.
    Some Age UK stats:

    Older people in care homes
    • 400,000 older people
    • Average age 85 years
    • 66% Cognitive impairment
    • 40% depression
    • 75% classified “severely
    disabled”

    That depression stat is frightening (they all are). Personal decision but if that was me I'd wanna be euthanased. Not that that should dictate our policy in this instance.
    I`m with you - though I`d have topped myself before getting to that stage.
    My son in laws parents, both in their late eighties, are in a terrible way with his mother in dementia care and his father needing hospital or nursing care and not able to get either, but both are fighting to live

    When you arrive in old age you may find it harder to face your own death
    Yes, I hear you BigG.

    My mum and dad are in their 80s. Mum is in a nursing home. Dad is on his own (with brief daily carer visits) and has Alzheimer`s desease. Under lockdown, of course, I can`t visit either. It`s tragic. I may never see them again and, equally importantly, they may never see each other again. They`ve been married for over 50 years and never been apart.

    My experience with mum`s nursing home has been an experience and an education. Mum exists. I wouldn`t call it a life. The living dead. The home banned visitors before the government advised them to do so. The care home manager was honest - she said "if the virus gets it it would be bad for business". These private homes are farming old folk for profit. Sorry - but that`s how I see it. I`m generally not for state ownership of things, but I`ve come to believe that private companies shouldn`t be allowed anywhere near this sector.
    Stocky, that is absolutely tragic for you, not something you will get over , inadequate but my best wishes to you and your parents. @stocky
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020

    A journo just asked if the ONS deaths data from death certificates will be put in the public domain.

    I mean, Christ, how do they get these journalism jobs?

    I stopped watching the Q&As, which esteemed publication is this particular genius from?
    I missed that detail.

    Pretty sure a basic journalism course would cover public sources of basic data for local news e.g. births/deaths, coroners office, police station overnight reports etc.
    Not even knowing ONS data is freely available, chances they have managed to read any stuff off the likes of medRxiv......

    No wonder they repeat the shit from Imperial about 7,000 deaths or UW about 66,000, when even a cursory look at the models showed them hugely problematic.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    malcolmg said:

    ukpaul said:

    Midlands deaths higher than London in the latest set. And North West up there as well.

    It seems to be kicking off more up here in Yorkshire now, as well. It appears that the focus may well be moving north of Birmingham for the next stage. Still not up to the level of London’s problem though.
    One would expect the number of cases as a proportion of total population to end up varying by region, with the most urbanized areas suffering the worst. We have all been asked to practice social distancing for a reason, after all. This is why, for example, it's no surprise that the East of England, which has no large cities, is suffering less badly than Scotland, which has approximately the same population but where most of the people inhabit the central belt.
    however Scotland count all deaths , care homes etc, as far as I am aware England do not , they only count hospital and then only if tested so not a great comparison. Deaths in Scotland are significantly below England even counting those factors, why is that.
    I've just been noticing the trends in the numbers of Covid-19 cases in hospital, as displayed in one of the charts that we're shown in the daily UK Government press briefing. The numbers for the South West of England are lowest; the East is in a similar place to Wales, which has a lower population but where most of the people are concentrated in the far South; and Scotland is running well above the East of England and only a little below the (significantly more populous) South East in terms of the current total numbers hospitalised.

    I doubt if the differences are attributable to issues such as Governmental competence because London and the devolved administrations have mostly been singing from the same hymn sheet through this crisis, and nor does it seem to be anything to do with resourcing because per capita public spending is not radically different between the various parts of the UK (Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all do better than the mean for the English regions on this metric, but it's not as if they vary by a factor of 2 or 3.) Thus, I wondered if the most obvious explanation might be population density? Obviously Scotland has a greater percentage of its population clustered in conurbations and a correspondingly lower percentage in the countryside than in the East of England or the West Country.

    I'm not aware of there being any major difference in the procedures for the reporting of Covid-19-related deaths between Scotland and the rest of the country, but not being an expert on that topic there might well be.
    The population density of the SW is probably less of an issue than the age profile: the place is full of old, independent people who are happy to lock down rather than die, thank you very much. We had the first hotspot in the country. Now we have the lowest number of cases (It was literally a tenth of the Yorkshire numbers per 100,000 when I last checked). They started self-isolating sooner and harder than anywhere else. But we still can't come out becuase of the risk of the virus being brought in from outside.
    The map from the app shows Dartmoor and Exmoor as hotspots for symptoms: https://covid.joinzoe.com/data
    Second homers?
    Possibly, but as every second home in the South Hams seems to be occupied, I would have though we would have been hit harder.

    Transmission by sheep been ruled out?
    Good point. I don't trust the app at all.
  • Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    isam said:

    ...

    IshmaelZ said:

    Coronavirus: Thirteen die at Stanley care home

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-52268841

    72 bed home so that's 18% of entire population, with undisclosed number of further unresolved cases. Sobering.

    Over 50% of hospital deaths from Covid-19 are aged over 80, and the unreported deaths from care homes are estimated to be 50% of the total, so likely 2/3rds of all Covid deaths are 80+, and 6% under 40
    People over 80 don't matter - in fact, think of the money we're going save because they've died.
    Some Age UK stats:

    Older people in care homes
    • 400,000 older people
    • Average age 85 years
    • 66% Cognitive impairment
    • 40% depression
    • 75% classified “severely
    disabled”

    That depression stat is frightening (they all are). Personal decision but if that was me I'd wanna be euthanased. Not that that should dictate our policy in this instance.
    I`m with you - though I`d have topped myself before getting to that stage.
    My son in laws parents, both in their late eighties, are in a terrible way with his mother in dementia care and his father needing hospital or nursing care and not able to get either, but both are fighting to live

    When you arrive in old age you may find it harder to face your own death
    Yes, I hear you BigG.

    My mum and dad are in their 80s. Mum is in a nursing home. Dad is on his own (with brief daily carer visits) and has Alzheimer`s desease. Under lockdown, of course, I can`t visit either. It`s tragic. I may never see them again and, equally importantly, they may never see each other again. They`ve been married for over 50 years and never been apart.

    My experience with mum`s nursing home has been an experience and an education. Mum exists. I wouldn`t call it a life. The living dead. The home banned visitors before the government advised them to do so. The care home manager was honest - she said "if the virus gets it it would be bad for business". These private homes are farming old folk for profit. Sorry - but that`s how I see it. I`m generally not for state ownership of things, but I`ve come to believe that private companies shouldn`t be allowed anywhere near this sector.
    That, Mr S is a dreadful situation, and you have my total sympathy. I used to inspect Care Homes as part of my work duties, and then in retirement went on to advise them on medication handling, staff training and whatever. I have seen some really crap homes, and some really good ones. IME the worst private homes are the worst, but the best private ones were the best. The ex Local Authority ones, run by a not for profit company were OK, but a lot depended on the staff. One of the best I visited was run by nuns.
    My sister died in a nursing home run by nuns and they were wonderful
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    Why are the media continuing to bang on about how the lockdown will be lifted? They hammered the Government for alleged poor communication yet want them to give out mixed messages which would undermine the lockdown's effectiveness.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Jezza hasn’t signed - splitter !
  • DougSeal said:

    malcolmg said:

    DougSeal said:

    malcolmg said:

    ukpaul said:

    Midlands deaths higher than London in the latest set. And North West up there as well.

    It seems to be kicking off more up here in Yorkshire now, as well. It appears that the focus may well be moving north of Birmingham for the next stage. Still not up to the level of London’s problem though.
    One would expect the number of cases as a proportion of total population to end up varying by region, with the most urbanized areas suffering the worst. We have all been asked to practice social distancing for a reason, after all. This is why, for example, it's no surprise that the East of England, which has no large cities, is suffering less badly than Scotland, which has approximately the same population but where most of the people inhabit the central belt.
    however Scotland count all deaths , care homes etc, as far as I am aware England do not , they only count hospital and then only if tested so not a great comparison. Deaths in Scotland are significantly below England even counting those factors, why is that.
    No Malc. The daily death results in England come from hospitals but over time the Office for National Statistics add the total deaths in England from death certificates to get a true picture.

    In Scotland the situation is very similar indeed - although not exactly the same. We won't know the true figure in Scotland until the National Records of Scotland update us on Wednesday -

    https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/covid19stats

    As this site itself confirms their "...number is different from the count of deaths published daily on the gov.scot website, because the latter is based on deaths of those who have tested positive for COVID-19 whereas these figures include all deaths where COVID-19 (included suspected cases) was mentioned on the death certificate". So those that pass away in care homes, north and south of the border, will only be included in the daily updates if they had previously tested positive for Covid-19. Huge numbers of those who have died untested in Scotland will not have been included in the figures.

    But why let the facts get in the way of your Anglophobic narrative, eh?
    Away you twisted nasty halfwit, I was having a serious conversation with someone about the numbers and how counted etc and don't need retreads like you butting in with your unionist jingoism. If you cannot have a decent conversation F**K off.
    I am not a Unionist - at least not in the UK sense. Happy for the Scots to decide their own destiny. You, however, are an Anglophobe, you just dress it up in plausably deniable terms like "Unionist" and "Southerner". I am just pointing out some facts that don't meet your narrative. Troll away. You wouldn't know a serious or civil conversation if it bit you in the arse.
    You started the abuse
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    More journalists on the ball: "Will that data (on Covid deaths outside hospitals) be released to the public?"

    "All ONS data is public".....

    Nor is it exactly the first time we've had this same question about the death in care homes reporting issue raised at one of these briefings, to which one or other of the Government advisers has given a slow and patient response.

    Still doesn't seem to be sinking in though.
    Press need to be sent an FAQ on deaths in carer homes.

    Are deaths in carer homes recorded?

    Yes, we gather the data via ONS from death certificates.

    Why can't you tell us those numbers on same day as hospital deaths?

    Because the death certificate process takes a few days.

    Does the ONS publish this data for the public?

    Yes.

  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited April 2020
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    isam said:

    ...

    IshmaelZ said:

    Coronavirus: Thirteen die at Stanley care home

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-52268841

    72 bed home so that's 18% of entire population, with undisclosed number of further unresolved cases. Sobering.

    Over 50% of hospital deaths from Covid-19 are aged over 80, and the unreported deaths from care homes are estimated to be 50% of the total, so likely 2/3rds of all Covid deaths are 80+, and 6% under 40
    People over 80 don't matter - in fact, think of the money we're going save because they've died.
    Some Age UK stats:

    Older people in care homes
    • 400,000 older people
    • Average age 85 years
    • 66% Cognitive impairment
    • 40% depression
    • 75% classified “severely
    disabled”

    That depression stat is frightening (they all are). Personal decision but if that was me I'd wanna be euthanased. Not that that should dictate our policy in this instance.
    Truth be told, most people over 50 would probably be better off dead.

    And yes, you're right that ideally it would be a personal decision. But in the present situation we're getting to the point where younger people are being inconvenienced.
    What a dreadful thing to think let alone say
    Blimey, that's a relief! When I said 80 it was met with a chorus of approval. I wondered how low I'd have to go before anyone disagreed ...
    I assumed, at both levels, that you were just a bit of a d1ck who was bored and trolling. So I ignored you. Suspect that applies to most.
    For "trolling", surely read "accurately representing the sentiments of those who want the lockdown lifted to ease the effect on their bank balances"?
    What a comment. What a comment of astonishing stupidity, crassness and ignorance.

    Millions are going to lose their jobs and businesses in the next few weeks if we go on with this lockdown.

    The economy is set to shrink by 30% on the chancellors own estimations, an amount completely unprecedented in British history.

    Debt is set to soar.

    IF you call 'caring about your bank balance' avoiding complete destitution for months and years then I suppose you are right.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited April 2020
    dodrade said:

    Why are the media continuing to bang on about how the lockdown will be lifted? They hammered the Government for alleged poor communication yet want them to give out mixed messages which would undermine the lockdown's effectiveness.

    Gotcha journalism and bias against the government. I`m convinced that if an alien life form was watching these daily briefings it would conclude that in the battle of The Virus v The Government/Scientists that the media is rooting for the virus.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Charles said:

    malcolmg said:
    You know his Dad didn’t leave him £10bn right? From memory he and his sisters each inherited about £12m (a very nice amount to be clear)
    A mere £12 million? Truly a self made man.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    edited April 2020

    IshmaelZ said:

    malcolmg said:

    ukpaul said:

    Midlands deaths higher than London in the latest set. And North West up there as well.

    It seems to be kicking off more up here in Yorkshire now, as well. It appears that the focus may well be moving north of Birmingham for the next stage. Still not up to the level of London’s problem though.
    One would expect the number of cases as a proportion of total population to end up varying by region, with the most urbanized areas suffering the worst. We have all been asked to practice social distancing for a reason, after all. This is why, for example, it's no surprise that the East of England, which has no large cities, is suffering less badly than Scotland, which has approximately the same population but where most of the people inhabit the central belt.
    however Scotland count all deaths , care homes etc, as far as I am aware England do not , they only count hospital and then only if tested so not a great comparison. Deaths in Scotland are significantly below England even counting those factors, why is that.
    I've just been noticing the trends in the numbers of Covid-19 cases in hospital, as displayed in one of the charts that we're shown in the daily UK Government press briefing. The numbers for the South West of England are lowest; the East is in a similar place to Wales, which has a lower population but where most of the people are concentrated in the far South; and Scotland is running well above the East of England and only a little below the (significantly more populous) South East in terms of the current total numbers hospitalised.

    I doubt if the differences are attributable to issues such as Governmental competence because London and the devolved administrations have mostly been singing from the same hymn sheet through this crisis, and nor does it seem to be anything to do with resourcing because per capita public spending is not radically different between the various parts of the UK (Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all do better than the mean for the English regions on this metric, but it's not as if they vary by a factor of 2 or 3.) Thus, I wondered if the most obvious explanation might be population density? Obviously Scotland has a greater percentage of its population clustered in conurbations and a correspondingly lower percentage in the countryside than in the East of England or the West Country.

    I'm not aware of there being any major difference in the procedures for the reporting of Covid-19-related deaths between Scotland and the rest of the country, but not being an expert on that topic there might well be.
    The population density of the SW is probably less of an issue than the age profile: the place is full of old, independent people who are happy to lock down rather than die, thank you very much. We had the first hotspot in the country. Now we have the lowest number of cases (It was literally a tenth of the Yorkshire numbers per 100,000 when I last checked). They started self-isolating sooner and harder than anywhere else. But we still can't come out becuase of the risk of the virus being brought in from outside.
    The map from the app shows Dartmoor and Exmoor as hotspots for symptoms: https://covid.joinzoe.com/data
    Second homers?
    Isn't that where Johnson Snr relocated to?
    Yes, Exmoor. (Although I know he had been planning to go to Africa and India before this all hit, so he might have returned from one or the other and self-isolated in London before heading to his main residence on Exmoor. We still don't know what contact he had with Boris, but I think we would have heard by now if Stanley had the virus.)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    92 carer homes where an outbreak has happened.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Well at least the leaked Labour report will give all the journalists give them something to get their teeth into that isn't full of all those very difficult numbers and statistical models and stuff, party infighting.

    Which requires not much more than phoning their contacts to get somebody to sound off about much of a bastard x is and putting together these quotes.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Patrick Vallance continues to await definitive evidence that preventing Covid patients coughing on people will reduce infections ...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Message to Messrs TSE and BJO.
    a) I've no idea who that is and
    b) Can't you find a smaller picture?

    c) Is it not possible that Ms Patel is being given just enough rope to hang herself, rather than anyone else?

    Anthony Hopkins playing Hannibal.
    Hannibal Lector not Hannibal the best general of the ancient world @Morris_Dancer @TheScreamingEagles
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    Well at least the leaked Labour report will give all the journalists give them something to get their teeth into that isn't full of all those very difficult numbers and statistical models and stuff, party infighting.

    Which requires not much more than phoning their contacts to get somebody to sound off about much of a bastard x is and putting together these quotes.

    They might even ask about it at tomorrow's Covid-19 presser.....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    OK fellers, if there is anyone who can help I'd be grateful.

    I've got a lenovo desktop computer, about three years old (2017) which isn't top of the range but has always worked perfectly well. Today, instead of starting up, it sits there with its LED on, and its fan spinning, and nothing getting through to either monitor.

    It's not the cables, it's not the monitors, it's not anything I've plugged in and I haven't done any software updates recently (Microsoft may of course have attempted one without asking me, which is not unusual for them). So I think it might be a hardware problem, which would be bloody annoying as it would be a nightmare to get it fixed right now.

    However, I wondered if anyone had come across something similar and might know of a fix?

    If worst comes to worst, I can manage without it, but it makes life more difficult.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,358
    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    ukpaul said:

    Midlands deaths higher than London in the latest set. And North West up there as well.

    It seems to be kicking off more up here in Yorkshire now, as well. It appears that the focus may well be moving north of Birmingham for the next stage. Still not up to the level of London’s problem though.
    One would expect the number of cases as a proportion of total population to end up varying by region, with the most urbanized areas suffering the worst. We have all been asked to practice social distancing for a reason, after all. This is why, for example, it's no surprise that the East of England, which has no large cities, is suffering less badly than Scotland, which has approximately the same population but where most of the people inhabit the central belt.
    however Scotland count all deaths , care homes etc, as far as I am aware England do not , they only count hospital and then only if tested so not a great comparison. Deaths in Scotland are significantly below England even counting those factors, why is that.
    You didn't listen to the FM today then?

    Scotland announces daily deaths - hospital deaths tested positive for Covid-19.

    The same way as England & Wales.

    Then there is a weekly update which covers all deaths based on death certificates. This will cover any death that mentions Covid-19 on the death certificate, wherever they died, hospital, care home or at home. As it takes time for death certificates to filter through there is a lag,

    The same way as England & Wales.
    I did indeed and knew how Scotland counted , but have seen varying articles on what is counted in England, some say care homes included some say not, some say only if tested some say all. Given they will not bother testing in care homes it could make a huge difference to the actual numbers reported.
    The daily NHS stats are in-hospital only, whereas the weekly ONS stats include all deaths. I don't think that has ever changed.
    we should be looking at ONS for accurate numbers then
    Of course, but they take time to compile. I don't think there is much material difference between the approach in England and Scotland.
    Am I missing something Rob, ONS appear to be England and Wales only
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    More journalists on the ball: "Will that data (on Covid deaths outside hospitals) be released to the public?"

    "All ONS data is public".....

    Nor is it exactly the first time we've had this same question about the death in care homes reporting issue raised at one of these briefings, to which one or other of the Government advisers has given a slow and patient response.

    Still doesn't seem to be sinking in though.
    Press need to be sent an FAQ on deaths in carer homes.

    Are deaths in carer homes recorded?

    Yes, we gather the data via ONS from death certificates.

    Why can't you tell us those numbers on same day as hospital deaths?

    Because the death certificate process takes a few days.

    Does the ONS publish this data for the public?

    Yes.

    You wonder what they do with all their time. Does anybody on here not know this?

    I wonder if they even realise those daily death figures aren't actually all the people who died yesterday.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    New Statesman guy actually asking worthy questions.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    ukpaul said:

    Midlands deaths higher than London in the latest set. And North West up there as well.

    It seems to be kicking off more up here in Yorkshire now, as well. It appears that the focus may well be moving north of Birmingham for the next stage. Still not up to the level of London’s problem though.
    One would expect the number of cases as a proportion of total population to end up varying by region, with the most urbanized areas suffering the worst. We have all been asked to practice social distancing for a reason, after all. This is why, for example, it's no surprise that the East of England, which has no large cities, is suffering less badly than Scotland, which has approximately the same population but where most of the people inhabit the central belt.
    however Scotland count all deaths , care homes etc, as far as I am aware England do not , they only count hospital and then only if tested so not a great comparison. Deaths in Scotland are significantly below England even counting those factors, why is that.
    You didn't listen to the FM today then?

    Scotland announces daily deaths - hospital deaths tested positive for Covid-19.

    The same way as England & Wales.

    Then there is a weekly update which covers all deaths based on death certificates. This will cover any death that mentions Covid-19 on the death certificate, wherever they died, hospital, care home or at home. As it takes time for death certificates to filter through there is a lag,

    The same way as England & Wales.
    I did indeed and knew how Scotland counted , but have seen varying articles on what is counted in England, some say care homes included some say not, some say only if tested some say all. Given they will not bother testing in care homes it could make a huge difference to the actual numbers reported.
    Deaths in Scotland and England are reported in the same way.

    Daily deaths from hospitals of people who tested positive for Covid-19

    Weekly deaths from death certificates which mention Covid-19 at all, wherever the death occurred, whether or not they were tested. Where outbreaks are reported in care homes testers go in to identify those infected.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Charles said:

    Message to Messrs TSE and BJO.
    a) I've no idea who that is and
    b) Can't you find a smaller picture?

    c) Is it not possible that Ms Patel is being given just enough rope to hang herself, rather than anyone else?

    Anthony Hopkins playing Hannibal.
    Hannibal Lector not Hannibal the best general of the ancient world @Morris_Dancer @TheScreamingEagles
    Trust you to Caesarn opportunity to cause an argument...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,358

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    ukpaul said:

    Midlands deaths higher than London in the latest set. And North West up there as well.

    It seems to be kicking off more up here in Yorkshire now, as well. It appears that the focus may well be moving north of Birmingham for the next stage. Still not up to the level of London’s problem though.
    One would expect the number of cases as a proportion of total population to end up varying by region, with the most urbanized areas suffering the worst. We have all been asked to practice social distancing for a reason, after all. This is why, for example, it's no surprise that the East of England, which has no large cities, is suffering less badly than Scotland, which has approximately the same population but where most of the people inhabit the central belt.
    however Scotland count all deaths , care homes etc, as far as I am aware England do not , they only count hospital and then only if tested so not a great comparison. Deaths in Scotland are significantly below England even counting those factors, why is that.
    You didn't listen to the FM today then?

    Scotland announces daily deaths - hospital deaths tested positive for Covid-19.

    The same way as England & Wales.

    Then there is a weekly update which covers all deaths based on death certificates. This will cover any death that mentions Covid-19 on the death certificate, wherever they died, hospital, care home or at home. As it takes time for death certificates to filter through there is a lag,

    The same way as England & Wales.
    Can we therefore say that at some point of the week the numbers will be accurate for all countries in the UK and all will have been collated using the same methodology etc. If so do we know what day that is.
    ONS and Ntional Records in Scotland will probably have the accurate numbers about 2 weeks behind, for any given date.

    There will be additional changes after that - post mortum completed tests and inquests may add/subtract.

    See -
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
    thanks, so I need to look at ONS plus Scottish data
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    In this spectacularly complacent press conference. Even business Insider has no interest in the enormous impact the government's measures will have on.....er.....business.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    isam said:

    ...

    IshmaelZ said:

    Coronavirus: Thirteen die at Stanley care home

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-52268841

    72 bed home so that's 18% of entire population, with undisclosed number of further unresolved cases. Sobering.

    Over 50% of hospital deaths from Covid-19 are aged over 80, and the unreported deaths from care homes are estimated to be 50% of the total, so likely 2/3rds of all Covid deaths are 80+, and 6% under 40
    People over 80 don't matter - in fact, think of the money we're going save because they've died.
    Some Age UK stats:

    Older people in care homes
    • 400,000 older people
    • Average age 85 years
    • 66% Cognitive impairment
    • 40% depression
    • 75% classified “severely
    disabled”

    That depression stat is frightening (they all are). Personal decision but if that was me I'd wanna be euthanased. Not that that should dictate our policy in this instance.
    Truth be told, most people over 50 would probably be better off dead.

    And yes, you're right that ideally it would be a personal decision. But in the present situation we're getting to the point where younger people are being inconvenienced.
    What a dreadful thing to think let alone say
    Blimey, that's a relief! When I said 80 it was met with a chorus of approval. I wondered how low I'd have to go before anyone disagreed ...
    I assumed, at both levels, that you were just a bit of a d1ck who was bored and trolling. So I ignored you. Suspect that applies to most.
    For "trolling", surely read "accurately representing the sentiments of those who want the lockdown lifted to ease the effect on their bank balances"?
    Nah, trolling‘s a better fit
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    In this spectacularly complacent press conference. Even business Insider has no interest in the enormous impact the government's measures will have on.....er.....business.

    Too awful to contemplate?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    malcolmg said:

    ukpaul said:

    Midlands deaths higher than London in the latest set. And North West up there as well.

    It seems to be kicking off more up here in Yorkshire now, as well. It appears that the focus may well be moving north of Birmingham for the next stage. Still not up to the level of London’s problem though.
    One would expect the number of cases as a proportion of total population to end up varying by region, with the most urbanized areas suffering the worst. We have all been asked to practice social distancing for a reason, after all. This is why, for example, it's no surprise that the East of England, which has no large cities, is suffering less badly than Scotland, which has approximately the same population but where most of the people inhabit the central belt.
    however Scotland count all deaths , care homes etc, as far as I am aware England do not , they only count hospital and then only if tested so not a great comparison. Deaths in Scotland are significantly below England even counting those factors, why is that.
    I've just been noticing the trends in the numbers of Covid-19 cases in hospital, as displayed in one of the charts that we're shown in the daily UK Government press briefing. The numbers for the South West of England are lowest; the East is in a similar place to Wales, which has a lower population but where most of the people are concentrated in the far South; and Scotland is running well above the East of England and only a little below the (significantly more populous) South East in terms of the current total numbers hospitalised.

    I doubt if the differences are attributable to issues such as Governmental competence because London and the devolved administrations have mostly been singing from the same hymn sheet through this crisis, and nor does it seem to be anything to do with resourcing because per capita public spending is not radically different between the various parts of the UK (Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all do better than the mean for the English regions on this metric, but it's not as if they vary by a factor of 2 or 3.) Thus, I wondered if the most obvious explanation might be population density? Obviously Scotland has a greater percentage of its population clustered in conurbations and a correspondingly lower percentage in the countryside than in the East of England or the West Country.

    I'm not aware of there being any major difference in the procedures for the reporting of Covid-19-related deaths between Scotland and the rest of the country, but not being an expert on that topic there might well be.
    The population density of the SW is probably less of an issue than the age profile: the place is full of old, independent people who are happy to lock down rather than die, thank you very much. We had the first hotspot in the country. Now we have the lowest number of cases (It was literally a tenth of the Yorkshire numbers per 100,000 when I last checked). They started self-isolating sooner and harder than anywhere else. But we still can't come out becuase of the risk of the virus being brought in from outside.
    The map from the app shows Dartmoor and Exmoor as hotspots for symptoms: https://covid.joinzoe.com/data
    Second homers?
    The granulation of the color bar is a bit misleading there. 2.96% and 3.09% have very different colors.
    Having checked the colours with the eye dropper extension in Chrome, Dartmoor and Exmoor are 3-4% in a sea of 0-2%. Actually I can't find anywhere on the map in the 2-3% band.
    You can mouse over the region and it gives you the exact percentage. Those two are neighbouring regions (Torridge and Oakhampton) in the South west where that supposed hotspot is. My point is they look like a hotspot just because of the arbitrary choice of the color bins.
    Ah, got you (you have to mouse over and left click in Chrome). I think the hotspot was down on the South Coast, though, not Torridge and Okehampton.

    The map colouring is screwed up. Cornwall for instance is coloured 0-2% (verified by checking RGB numbers) but comes up as 2.73% on mouse over.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    isam said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    isam said:

    ...

    IshmaelZ said:

    Coronavirus: Thirteen die at Stanley care home

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-52268841

    72 bed home so that's 18% of entire population, with undisclosed number of further unresolved cases. Sobering.

    Over 50% of hospital deaths from Covid-19 are aged over 80, and the unreported deaths from care homes are estimated to be 50% of the total, so likely 2/3rds of all Covid deaths are 80+, and 6% under 40
    People over 80 don't matter - in fact, think of the money we're going save because they've died.
    Some Age UK stats:

    Older people in care homes
    • 400,000 older people
    • Average age 85 years
    • 66% Cognitive impairment
    • 40% depression
    • 75% classified “severely
    disabled”

    That depression stat is frightening (they all are). Personal decision but if that was me I'd wanna be euthanased. Not that that should dictate our policy in this instance.
    Truth be told, most people over 50 would probably be better off dead.

    And yes, you're right that ideally it would be a personal decision. But in the present situation we're getting to the point where younger people are being inconvenienced.
    What a dreadful thing to think let alone say
    Blimey, that's a relief! When I said 80 it was met with a chorus of approval. I wondered how low I'd have to go before anyone disagreed ...
    I assumed, at both levels, that you were just a bit of a d1ck who was bored and trolling. So I ignored you. Suspect that applies to most.
    For "trolling", surely read "accurately representing the sentiments of those who want the lockdown lifted to ease the effect on their bank balances"?
    Nah, trolling‘s a better fit
    Let`s not be rude to each other - Chris is usually a great poster.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    ukpaul said:

    Midlands deaths higher than London in the latest set. And North West up there as well.

    It seems to be kicking off more up here in Yorkshire now, as well. It appears that the focus may well be moving north of Birmingham for the next stage. Still not up to the level of London’s problem though.
    One would expect the number of cases as a proportion of total population to end up varying by region, with the most urbanized areas suffering the worst. We have all been asked to practice social distancing for a reason, after all. This is why, for example, it's no surprise that the East of England, which has no large cities, is suffering less badly than Scotland, which has approximately the same population but where most of the people inhabit the central belt.
    however Scotland count all deaths , care homes etc, as far as I am aware England do not , they only count hospital and then only if tested so not a great comparison. Deaths in Scotland are significantly below England even counting those factors, why is that.
    You didn't listen to the FM today then?

    Scotland announces daily deaths - hospital deaths tested positive for Covid-19.

    The same way as England & Wales.

    Then there is a weekly update which covers all deaths based on death certificates. This will cover any death that mentions Covid-19 on the death certificate, wherever they died, hospital, care home or at home. As it takes time for death certificates to filter through there is a lag,

    The same way as England & Wales.
    Can we therefore say that at some point of the week the numbers will be accurate for all countries in the UK and all will have been collated using the same methodology etc. If so do we know what day that is.
    Usually Wednesday - may be affected by the bank holiday weekend. Check ONS.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    felix said:

    I saw earlier someone saying that the Spanish lockdown had been relaxed today. It has, but it remains significantly more severe than what is operating in the UK. So please don't get carried away!

    I wonder if it will bear any resemblance to this. From a mate who lives in Spain


  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited April 2020
    You can tell from this press conference that the doctors are firmly in control of policy.

    So imagine the worst hit the economy could take from this, your absolute worst nightmare, and assume its going to be worse than that.

    For two million job losses read four million, in other words.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    isam said:

    ...

    IshmaelZ said:

    Coronavirus: Thirteen die at Stanley care home

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-52268841

    72 bed home so that's 18% of entire population, with undisclosed number of further unresolved cases. Sobering.

    Over 50% of hospital deaths from Covid-19 are aged over 80, and the unreported deaths from care homes are estimated to be 50% of the total, so likely 2/3rds of all Covid deaths are 80+, and 6% under 40
    People over 80 don't matter - in fact, think of the money we're going save because they've died.
    Some Age UK stats:

    Older people in care homes
    • 400,000 older people
    • Average age 85 years
    • 66% Cognitive impairment
    • 40% depression
    • 75% classified “severely
    disabled”

    That depression stat is frightening (they all are). Personal decision but if that was me I'd wanna be euthanased. Not that that should dictate our policy in this instance.
    Truth be told, most people over 50 would probably be better off dead.

    And yes, you're right that ideally it would be a personal decision. But in the present situation we're getting to the point where younger people are being inconvenienced.
    What a dreadful thing to think let alone say
    Blimey, that's a relief! When I said 80 it was met with a chorus of approval. I wondered how low I'd have to go before anyone disagreed ...
    I assumed, at both levels, that you were just a bit of a d1ck who was bored and trolling. So I ignored you. Suspect that applies to most.
    For "trolling", surely read "accurately representing the sentiments of those who want the lockdown lifted to ease the effect on their bank balances"?
    What a comment. What a comment of astonishing stupidity, crassness and ignorance.

    Millions are going to lose their jobs and businesses in the next few weeks if we go on with this lockdown.

    The economy is set to shrink by 30% on the chancellors own estimations, an amount completely unprecedented in British history.

    Debt is set to soar.

    IF you call 'caring about your bank balance' avoiding complete destitution for months and years then I suppose you are right.
    Evidently you feel the cap fits!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,358
    ydoethur said:

    OK fellers, if there is anyone who can help I'd be grateful.

    I've got a lenovo desktop computer, about three years old (2017) which isn't top of the range but has always worked perfectly well. Today, instead of starting up, it sits there with its LED on, and its fan spinning, and nothing getting through to either monitor.

    It's not the cables, it's not the monitors, it's not anything I've plugged in and I haven't done any software updates recently (Microsoft may of course have attempted one without asking me, which is not unusual for them). So I think it might be a hardware problem, which would be bloody annoying as it would be a nightmare to get it fixed right now.

    However, I wondered if anyone had come across something similar and might know of a fix?

    If worst comes to worst, I can manage without it, but it makes life more difficult.

    most likely is HDD issue
    have you tried all the remove battery leave for a bit etc. If not SSD , do you hear drive spinning trying etc. It should load BIOS and go to HDD for OS.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    Chris said:

    Patrick Vallance continues to await definitive evidence that preventing Covid patients coughing on people will reduce infections ...

    It did rather sound as if he was preparing the ground for a U-Turn.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    ydoethur said:

    OK fellers, if there is anyone who can help I'd be grateful.

    I've got a lenovo desktop computer, about three years old (2017) which isn't top of the range but has always worked perfectly well. Today, instead of starting up, it sits there with its LED on, and its fan spinning, and nothing getting through to either monitor.

    It's not the cables, it's not the monitors, it's not anything I've plugged in and I haven't done any software updates recently (Microsoft may of course have attempted one without asking me, which is not unusual for them). So I think it might be a hardware problem, which would be bloody annoying as it would be a nightmare to get it fixed right now.

    However, I wondered if anyone had come across something similar and might know of a fix?

    If worst comes to worst, I can manage without it, but it makes life more difficult.

    Have you tried switching it off and switching it back on again?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    OK fellers, if there is anyone who can help I'd be grateful.

    I've got a lenovo desktop computer, about three years old (2017) which isn't top of the range but has always worked perfectly well. Today, instead of starting up, it sits there with its LED on, and its fan spinning, and nothing getting through to either monitor.

    It's not the cables, it's not the monitors, it's not anything I've plugged in and I haven't done any software updates recently (Microsoft may of course have attempted one without asking me, which is not unusual for them). So I think it might be a hardware problem, which would be bloody annoying as it would be a nightmare to get it fixed right now.

    However, I wondered if anyone had come across something similar and might know of a fix?

    If worst comes to worst, I can manage without it, but it makes life more difficult.

    most likely is HDD issue
    have you tried all the remove battery leave for a bit etc. If not SSD , do you hear drive spinning trying etc. It should load BIOS and go to HDD for OS.
    A desktop, Malcolm, not a laptop!

    The drive is engaging at start up, but doesn't seem to be kicking on.

    I was rather afraid it was an HDD problem.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    OK fellers, if there is anyone who can help I'd be grateful.

    I've got a lenovo desktop computer, about three years old (2017) which isn't top of the range but has always worked perfectly well. Today, instead of starting up, it sits there with its LED on, and its fan spinning, and nothing getting through to either monitor.

    It's not the cables, it's not the monitors, it's not anything I've plugged in and I haven't done any software updates recently (Microsoft may of course have attempted one without asking me, which is not unusual for them). So I think it might be a hardware problem, which would be bloody annoying as it would be a nightmare to get it fixed right now.

    However, I wondered if anyone had come across something similar and might know of a fix?

    If worst comes to worst, I can manage without it, but it makes life more difficult.

    most likely is HDD issue
    have you tried all the remove battery leave for a bit etc. If not SSD , do you hear drive spinning trying etc. It should load BIOS and go to HDD for OS.
    A desktop, Malcolm, not a laptop!

    The drive is engaging at start up, but doesn't seem to be kicking on.

    I was rather afraid it was an HDD problem.
    Have you tried a boot in safe mode? Which OS?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    ydoethur said:

    OK fellers, if there is anyone who can help I'd be grateful.

    I've got a lenovo desktop computer, about three years old (2017) which isn't top of the range but has always worked perfectly well. Today, instead of starting up, it sits there with its LED on, and its fan spinning, and nothing getting through to either monitor.

    It's not the cables, it's not the monitors, it's not anything I've plugged in and I haven't done any software updates recently (Microsoft may of course have attempted one without asking me, which is not unusual for them). So I think it might be a hardware problem, which would be bloody annoying as it would be a nightmare to get it fixed right now.

    However, I wondered if anyone had come across something similar and might know of a fix?

    If worst comes to worst, I can manage without it, but it makes life more difficult.

    Have you tried switching it off and switching it back on again?
    Yes. And unplugging it before turning it back on. And pressing the power key while it is unplugged. And booting it with various function keys held down.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Don’t get either Neil’s or Hodges’ responses. The reports of what is in the report do not suggest a culture that will be productive to Labour actually winning a general election.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    edited April 2020

    You can tell from this press conference that the doctors are firmly in control of policy.

    So imagine the worst hit the economy could take from this, your absolute worst nightmare, and assume its going to be worse than that.

    For two million job losses read four million, in other words.

    I think Boris Johnson will start taking charge again in a couple of weeks' time, and he's likely to take the economy into account a lot more than is presently the case.
This discussion has been closed.