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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Even Tory leavers are giving Starmer positive approval ratings

SystemSystem Posts: 12,169
edited April 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Even Tory leavers are giving Starmer positive approval ratings

Just a week after becoming Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has this weekend seen his first approval ratings and the numbers are certainly hugely different from those of his predecessor. He starts with an opinion net 26% lead for those saying he’s has their approval against those who say he doesn’t have their approval.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    First.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,250
    edited April 2020
    It was 1st on the other 'puter.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354
    Seconded.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    The message of this polling to supporters of Jeremy Corbyn could not be more clear and is therefore certain to be ignored by them.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020
    Anybody still thinks we are going to get a South Korean type system without certain sections of the media making a hell of a racket and special interest grouping mounting long winded legal challenges....

    Somebody clearly very keen to leak to the Guardian all this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/nhs-coronavirus-app-memo-discussed-giving-ministers-power-to-de-anonymise-users
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Fifth. For all the difference it makes.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    I guess Tories are impressed by his calm, statesmanlike, non-partisan "don't criticize the government for their colossal, lethal blunders" strategy. I'm not really convinced it's the way to win an election but we'll see.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    What are the don't know figures like on this poll?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    FPT:
    Mysticrose said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mysticrose said:

    I feel it's time to make an outlandish prediction:

    Boris Johnson will become to the Right what Tony Blair is to the Left.

    That is what separates them from Labour. Labour care about abstract ideas. Tories care about winning.
    Just look at the fury today now that Boris has told the country how magnificent the NHS is.
    Citation required.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002
    https://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1249637045296926721
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,250
    FPT:
    Mysticrose said:

    DAlexander said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Central Bedfordshire police a couple of days ago.

    https://twitter.com/CentralBedsCPT/status/1249003469098319873

    I must be the only person who doesn't understand why people social distancing while having a picnic is wrong, but police walking up and talking to hundreds of people a day for these offences, whilst potential spreading the virus is a good thing.
    Quite.

    You're not alone.
    Some sympathy with the argument you make, especially if it were a construct of the 'guidance' rather then the law, the guidance not being legally binding.

    AIUI it is not necessarily an offence for being a picnic, or necessarily a risk. It can be argued as not being a "reasonable excuse"; you need to justify why it is so, which would be decided by a court (presumably).

    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/made
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    RobD said:

    What are the don't know figures like on this poll?

    Large as I indicate in the text.
  • DensparkDenspark Posts: 68
    Deaths in England 667 up 10 from yesterday.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    edmundintokyo said:

    I guess Tories are impressed by his calm, statesmanlike, non-partisan "don't criticize the government for their colossal, lethal blunders" strategy. I'm not really convinced it's the way to win an election but we'll see.

    An election is a long way off.
    People are looking for reassurance right now, not attacks on the government. There will come a time for that, but given their large majority, sniping form the sidelines now would merely underline the opposition’s current impotence.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    edited April 2020
    MikeSmithson said:

    RobD said:

    What are the don't know figures like on this poll?

    Large as I indicate in the text.
    Ah, the end got snipped off on the vanilla website.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edmundintokyo said:

    I guess Tories are impressed by his calm, statesmanlike, non-partisan "don't criticize the government for their colossal, lethal blunders" strategy. I'm not really convinced it's the way to win an election but we'll see.

    Starmer isn’t supposed to win. He’s supposed to put someone younger in contention.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    edited April 2020
    Clearly dividing by Referendum vote, the division is no longer between support for Socialism and Capitalism as it was under Corbyn but between support for Leave and Remain under Starmer, hence both 2019 Tory and LD voting Remainers give Starmer higher approval ratings than 2019 Labour Leave voters and 2019 Tory Leave voters give Starmer the lowest approval ratings of all.

    Has not yet filtered through to voting intention though, beyond a fractional move from LD to Labour.
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1249251910940491786?s=20
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    IanB2 said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    I guess Tories are impressed by his calm, statesmanlike, non-partisan "don't criticize the government for their colossal, lethal blunders" strategy. I'm not really convinced it's the way to win an election but we'll see.

    Starmer isn’t supposed to win. He’s supposed to put someone younger in contention.
    You mean RBL of course :smiley: or Zarah Sultana or Lloyd Russell-Moyle :wink::smiley::smile:
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Anybody still thinks we are going to get a South Korean type system without certain sections of the media making a hell of a racket and special interest grouping mounting long winded legal challenges....

    Somebody clearly very keen to leak to the Guardian all this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/nhs-coronavirus-app-memo-discussed-giving-ministers-power-to-de-anonymise-users

    Surely the major problem with this app is that it is next to useless unless it is compulsory. A compulsory app and compulsory use of a smartphone if you are outside your house would work. Someone needs to buy me a smartphone, though. :)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    It's time for the government to dump Huawei from 5G.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    RobD said:

    What are the don't know figures like on this poll?

    SKS
    Con:
    Strongly approve: 7%
    Somewhat Approve: 19%
    Neither: 61%
    Somewhat disapprove: 5%
    Strongly disapprove: 8%

    Con Remainers:
    Strongly approve: 10%
    Somewhat Approve: 26%
    Neither: 55%
    Somewhat disapprove: 6%
    Strongly disapprove: 2%

    Con Leavers:
    Strongly approve: 4%
    Somewhat Approve: 15%
    Neither: 63%
    Somewhat disapprove: 6%
    Strongly disapprove: 11%



  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    edited April 2020
    The World Health Organisation wants everyone to wear face masks.

    Public Health England's advice on face masks:

    "Face masks play a very important role in clinical settings, such as hospitals but there’s very little evidence of widespread benefit from their use outside of these clinical settings."

    https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2020/01/23/wuhan-novel-coronavirus-what-you-need-to-know/
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,878
    ukpaul said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Anybody still thinks we are going to get a South Korean type system without certain sections of the media making a hell of a racket and special interest grouping mounting long winded legal challenges....

    Somebody clearly very keen to leak to the Guardian all this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/nhs-coronavirus-app-memo-discussed-giving-ministers-power-to-de-anonymise-users

    Surely the major problem with this app is that it is next to useless unless it is compulsory. A compulsory app and compulsory use of a smartphone if you are outside your house would work. Someone needs to buy me a smartphone, though. :)
    Making smartphone possession and download of apps I think is a step that goes far too far
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    MaxPB said:

    It's time for the government to dump Huawei from 5G.

    +1
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    ukpaul said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Anybody still thinks we are going to get a South Korean type system without certain sections of the media making a hell of a racket and special interest grouping mounting long winded legal challenges....

    Somebody clearly very keen to leak to the Guardian all this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/nhs-coronavirus-app-memo-discussed-giving-ministers-power-to-de-anonymise-users

    Surely the major problem with this app is that it is next to useless unless it is compulsory. A compulsory app and compulsory use of a smartphone if you are outside your house would work. Someone needs to buy me a smartphone, though. :)
    South Korea must be one of the most technologically advanced societies in the world. Almost everyone has smartphones and I think I’m right in saying their average internet speed is something crazy like 2.5 Gbps.

    In this country, things would be rather different.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    edmundintokyo said:

    I guess Tories are impressed by his calm, statesmanlike, non-partisan "don't criticize the government for their colossal, lethal blunders" strategy. I'm not really convinced it's the way to win an election but we'll see.

    This made me chuckle.

    But my guess is Labour need to look like they're giving the government a chance. Attacking Boris as he's just back from hospital might not be the smartest move.

    Either way, I don't think we will have to wait too long before Starmer starts criticizing the govt.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Andy_JS said:

    MaxPB said:

    It's time for the government to dump Huawei from 5G.

    +1
    Needs to be done as part of a package of measures to reboot our relationship with China
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1249637045296926721

    What a snowflake Peter Hitchens is.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    MaxPB said:

    It's time for the government to dump Huawei from 5G.

    Why is it only time to do that now? What has changed?
    (Is it spreading coronavirus ;-) )
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675
    On topic he’s a lawyer and the public love lawyers.

    Cf Tony Blair.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,878
    logical_song said:

    MaxPB said:

    It's time for the government to dump Huawei from 5G.

    Why is it only time to do that now? What has changed?
    (Is it spreading coronavirus ;-) )
    Isn't part of the current problem that by and large huawei are the only providers of the kit and other firms are still developing theirs?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,250
    felix said:

    IanB2 said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    I guess Tories are impressed by his calm, statesmanlike, non-partisan "don't criticize the government for their colossal, lethal blunders" strategy. I'm not really convinced it's the way to win an election but we'll see.

    Starmer isn’t supposed to win. He’s supposed to put someone younger in contention.
    You mean RBL of course :smiley: or Zarah Sultana or Lloyd Russell-Moyle :wink::smiley::smile:
    Verily, a generation to be taken seriously.

    Er ...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,805
    Mr. Eagles, hmm.
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    Pagan2 said:

    ukpaul said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Anybody still thinks we are going to get a South Korean type system without certain sections of the media making a hell of a racket and special interest grouping mounting long winded legal challenges....

    Somebody clearly very keen to leak to the Guardian all this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/nhs-coronavirus-app-memo-discussed-giving-ministers-power-to-de-anonymise-users

    Surely the major problem with this app is that it is next to useless unless it is compulsory. A compulsory app and compulsory use of a smartphone if you are outside your house would work. Someone needs to buy me a smartphone, though. :)
    Making smartphone possession and download of apps I think is a step that goes far too far
    The choice being between, on the one hand, relative safety plus free movement or, on the other, either a longer lockdown or having to gamble with your health/life? Surely the vast majority of people would prefer the former?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic he’s a lawyer and the public love lawyers.

    Cf Tony Blair.

    Mrs Brooke, who is something of a middle of the road floating voter, has taken a dislike to Starmer.

    No idea why,
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    ukpaul said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Anybody still thinks we are going to get a South Korean type system without certain sections of the media making a hell of a racket and special interest grouping mounting long winded legal challenges....

    Somebody clearly very keen to leak to the Guardian all this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/nhs-coronavirus-app-memo-discussed-giving-ministers-power-to-de-anonymise-users

    Surely the major problem with this app is that it is next to useless unless it is compulsory. A compulsory app and compulsory use of a smartphone if you are outside your house would work. Someone needs to buy me a smartphone, though. :)
    If you persuaded Android and Apple to force a prompt with the default as "install" nearly everyone would end up opted in.

    There's also the option of getting data direct from the mobile companies, you can get pretty close to a location even without GPS. (Maybe that's what this report is talking about? Hard to say, it's quite vague.)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic he’s a lawyer and the public love lawyers.

    Cf Tony Blair.

    Michael Howard might disagree and he was a better lawyer than Blair was
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    edited April 2020
    The figures in most European countries seem to be on a downward trend which is encouraging news.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,878
    ukpaul said:

    Pagan2 said:

    ukpaul said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Anybody still thinks we are going to get a South Korean type system without certain sections of the media making a hell of a racket and special interest grouping mounting long winded legal challenges....

    Somebody clearly very keen to leak to the Guardian all this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/nhs-coronavirus-app-memo-discussed-giving-ministers-power-to-de-anonymise-users

    Surely the major problem with this app is that it is next to useless unless it is compulsory. A compulsory app and compulsory use of a smartphone if you are outside your house would work. Someone needs to buy me a smartphone, though. :)
    Making smartphone possession and download of apps I think is a step that goes far too far
    The choice being between, on the one hand, relative safety plus free movement or, on the other, either a longer lockdown or having to gamble with your health/life? Surely the vast majority of people would prefer the former?
    What percentage of people would have to install the app though? I know I wouldn't but then I don't carry my phone with me anyway when out and about
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 64
    I rather like this. In this era of polarisation people are saying give the guy a chance even if they have next to no intention of voting for him. Would you get this in the US?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020
    # of tests well down. I think Wednesday is when we will see if deaths really are trailing off.

    https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1249693469733421056?s=20
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Curiously the least enthused by SKS are his age cohort:

    Net positive:
    18-34: +26
    35-44: +29
    45-54: +22
    55-64: +21
    65+: +28

    "Neithers" range from 53% (65+) to 69% (55-64)
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    # of tests well down.

    https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1249693469733421056?s=20

    Hancock must be tearing what is left of his hair out.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Alanbrooke said:

    Mrs Brooke, who is something of a middle of the road floating voter, has taken a dislike to Starmer.

    No idea why,

    Have you asked her?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,878
    Frank_Booth said:

    I rather like this. In this era of polarisation people are saying give the guy a chance even if they have next to no intention of voting for him. Would you get this in the US?

    I suspect for most it will be give him a chance and wait and see if he purges the corbynite tendency. They will give him a fair time to do so but as long as that harder left tendency exists will not necessarily vote for him
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    https://twitter.com/Egbert_PengWu/status/1249694449770336256
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Ms Sturgeon is popular with everyone except Con voters:

    Net Approve:
    Con: -34
    Lab: +44
    LibD: +42
    SNP: +92

    "Neithers" are about half Starmers
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    kinabalu said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Mrs Brooke, who is something of a middle of the road floating voter, has taken a dislike to Starmer.

    No idea why,

    Have you asked her?
    Generally speaking I chose not to poke the bear. She'll volunteer it eventually.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    # of tests well down. I think Wednesday is when we will see if deaths really are trailing off.

    https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1249693469733421056?s=20

    I think the test number is OK for Easter monday. Should pick up next week.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic he’s a lawyer and the public love lawyers.

    Cf Tony Blair.

    Mrs Brooke, who is something of a middle of the road floating voter, has taken a dislike to Starmer.

    No idea why,
    My experience, the more time people spend with lawyers or see more of them on the telly, they love them more.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    On whether Starmer could be Prime Minister

    Net "Yes"
    OA: +4
    Con: -28
    Lab: +60
    LibD: +46
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic he’s a lawyer and the public love lawyers.

    Cf Tony Blair.

    Mrs Brooke, who is something of a middle of the road floating voter, has taken a dislike to Starmer.

    No idea why,
    My experience, the more time people spend with lawyers or see more of them on the telly, they love them more.
    Until they get the bill......
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    contrarian said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    # of tests well down.

    https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1249693469733421056?s=20

    Hancock must be tearing what is left of his hair out.
    Why? It was Easter Sunday. The relevant figure is testing capacity, which I doubt has gone down.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    edited April 2020
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic he’s a lawyer and the public love lawyers.

    Cf Tony Blair.

    Mrs Brooke, who is something of a middle of the road floating voter, has taken a dislike to Starmer.

    No idea why,
    My experience, the more time people spend with lawyers or see more of them on the telly, they love them more.
    Depends what the lawyer is doing in my experience. My clients think I'm okay until they get the bill.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675
    Have we discussed this?

    https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1249433780512849921
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1249637045296926721

    What a snowflake Peter Hitchens is.
    Or corn(based)flake in this case.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675
    edited April 2020
    DougSeal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic he’s a lawyer and the public love lawyers.

    Cf Tony Blair.

    Mrs Brooke, who is something of a middle of the road floating voter, has taken a dislike to Starmer.

    No idea why,
    My experience, the more time people spend with lawyers or see more of them on the telly, they love them more.
    Depends what the lawyer is doing in my experience. My clients think I'm okay until they get the bill.
    Explaining disbursements was my highlight.

    Or why when they spoke to me for a minute they got billed for six minutes.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    edited April 2020
    The number of cases in the UK has dropped by about 20% today compared with yesterday.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,242
    I think the British people are fair minded and will give Starmer a fair crack of the whip.

    I still feel I would struggle to pin him down and what he stands for. He is not Corbyn. He is not Blair. But who is he?

    He needs to define himself before his opponents do so for him
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Has anyone got the data by date of death?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    The number of cases in the UK has dropped by about 20% today compared with yesterday.

    And so has the amount of tests. The rate of positive is basically the same as it has been for a number of days now.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Has anyone got the data by date of death?

    http://england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic he’s a lawyer and the public love lawyers.

    Cf Tony Blair.

    Mrs Brooke, who is something of a middle of the road floating voter, has taken a dislike to Starmer.

    No idea why,
    My experience, the more time people spend with lawyers or see more of them on the telly, they love them more.
    Is this apology for any offence caused from a parody account, or from a long standing Tory who worked for David Cameron and says he is Europe editor at The Economist?

    https://twitter.com/chrislockwd/status/1249590097252663297?s=21
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    I approve of Starmer, because I feel unthreatened by him. I can't tell if that's because I can't see him winning an election, or because I'm relaxed about the consequences of him winning an election.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic he’s a lawyer and the public love lawyers.

    Cf Tony Blair.

    Mrs Brooke, who is something of a middle of the road floating voter, has taken a dislike to Starmer.

    No idea why,
    My experience, the more time people spend with lawyers or see more of them on the telly, they love them more.
    Is this apology for any offence caused from a parody account, or from a long standing Tory who worked for David Cameron and says he is Europe editor at The Economist?

    https://twitter.com/chrislockwd/status/1249590097252663297?s=21
    It was a pretty shocking error of judgement to post it in the first place.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Have we discussed this?

    https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1249433780512849921

    It seems incredible to me that Labour party officials could be so right-wing.
    I guess I'm really naive but I'm really shocked by this.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    Andy_JS said:

    The number of cases in the UK has dropped by about 20% today compared with yesterday.

    hospital inpatients has been broadly flat for 5 days now. That's where you'll see the first signs of improvements.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DougSeal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic he’s a lawyer and the public love lawyers.

    Cf Tony Blair.

    Mrs Brooke, who is something of a middle of the road floating voter, has taken a dislike to Starmer.

    No idea why,
    My experience, the more time people spend with lawyers or see more of them on the telly, they love them more.
    Depends what the lawyer is doing in my experience. My clients think I'm okay until they get the bill.
    Explaining disbursements was my highlights.

    Or why when they spoke to me for a minute they got billed for six minutes.
    Bit of self puffery, but I agree with that, I try and do work for a fixed fee whenever I can these days. Litigation remains a pain when your nice straightforward unfair dismissal ends up in the Court of Appeal, but advising on anything transactional shouldn't be done on hourly rates anymore IMHO.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,878
    Endillion said:

    I approve of Starmer, because I feel unthreatened by him. I can't tell if that's because I can't see him winning an election, or because I'm relaxed about the consequences of him winning an election.

    I don't think you can be relaxed about him winning until he has dealt with momentum. It is possible he could win then get ousted by that wing of the party
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1249699254500810753?s=21
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020
    Midlands deaths higher than London in the latest set. And North West up there as well.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    edited April 2020
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The number of cases in the UK has dropped by about 20% today compared with yesterday.

    And so has the amount of tests. The rate of positive is basically the same as it has been for a number of days now.
    True. I can't see any signs though that the situation is going to be worse in the UK than Spain and Italy as the person was claiming yesterday.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    The disaggregated data (England only) is well summarised here

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The number of cases in the UK has dropped by about 20% today compared with yesterday.

    And so has the amount of tests. The rate of positive is basically the same as it has been for a number of days now.
    True. I can't see any signs though that the situation is going to be worse in the UK than Spain and Italy as that person was claiming yesterday.
    I don't either. I know they were an expert, but perhaps again swayed by that dodgy UW model that has been widely quoted and every day looks more and more bollocks.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2020
    An AC Grayling retweet

    I’m not a conspiracy theorist, but...

    https://twitter.com/russincheshire/status/1249587870215659520?s=21
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    edited April 2020
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The number of cases in the UK has dropped by about 20% today compared with yesterday.

    And so has the amount of tests. The rate of positive is basically the same as it has been for a number of days now.
    True. I can't see any signs though that the situation is going to be worse in the UK than Spain and Italy as that person was claiming yesterday.
    I don't either. I know they were an expert, but perhaps again swayed by that dodgy UW model that has been widely quoted and every day looks more and more bollocks.
    That was the one predicting 3000 deaths per day today?
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    isam said:

    An AC Grayling retweet

    I’m not a conspiracy theorist, but...

    https://twitter.com/russincheshire/status/1249587870215659520?s=21

    I'm not a XXXX but YYYY
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020
    isam said:

    An AC Grayling retweet

    I’m not a conspiracy theorist, but...

    twitter.com/russincheshire/status/1249587870215659520?s=21

    Boris has clearly lost a load of weight and he was in a less than a week, rather than 2.
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    Pagan2 said:

    ukpaul said:

    Pagan2 said:

    ukpaul said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Anybody still thinks we are going to get a South Korean type system without certain sections of the media making a hell of a racket and special interest grouping mounting long winded legal challenges....

    Somebody clearly very keen to leak to the Guardian all this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/nhs-coronavirus-app-memo-discussed-giving-ministers-power-to-de-anonymise-users

    Surely the major problem with this app is that it is next to useless unless it is compulsory. A compulsory app and compulsory use of a smartphone if you are outside your house would work. Someone needs to buy me a smartphone, though. :)
    Making smartphone possession and download of apps I think is a step that goes far too far
    The choice being between, on the one hand, relative safety plus free movement or, on the other, either a longer lockdown or having to gamble with your health/life? Surely the vast majority of people would prefer the former?
    What percentage of people would have to install the app though? I know I wouldn't but then I don't carry my phone with me anyway when out and about
    Even 95% takeup would suggest that every time 20 people meet then that group could be compromised. Could businesses make it a condition of employment?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    "Spain loosens COVID-19 lockdown as number of cases keeps falling

    The move will be closely watched by other countries as they also try to plan for how to end their own restrictions."

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-spain-to-lift-some-of-its-covid-19-lockdown-rules-11972473
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    isam said:

    An AC Grayling retweet

    I’m not a conspiracy theorist, but...

    https://twitter.com/russincheshire/status/1249587870215659520?s=21

    Given he was in ICU for two weeks and the PM for three days, I'm not sure how his anecdote is at all relevant.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Wonder if the Govt will listen?

    Preventing flights from virus hotspots arriving in the UK
    Net "Necessary":
    OA: +82
    Con: +93
    Lab: +87
    LD: +74

    Ironically, area most affected by international arrivals has lowest support at +68.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020
    RobD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The number of cases in the UK has dropped by about 20% today compared with yesterday.

    And so has the amount of tests. The rate of positive is basically the same as it has been for a number of days now.
    True. I can't see any signs though that the situation is going to be worse in the UK than Spain and Italy as that person was claiming yesterday.
    I don't either. I know they were an expert, but perhaps again swayed by that dodgy UW model that has been widely quoted and every day looks more and more bollocks.
    That was the one predicting 3000 deaths per day today?
    That's the one, with confidence intervals so wide even predicting a day or two into the future you could park a container ship through them.

    For today in the US, their model is predicting anywhere between ~450 and ~5,500 deaths. If your model spits out that kind of prediction looking only a day into the future (given you have 3 months of historical data to go on) , you need to think about what it is actually doing.

    Any model that doesn't have increasingly wide confidence intervals looking further into the future is arse about face. You should be much more confident about tomorrow than a month into the future.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,708
    RobD said:

    isam said:

    An AC Grayling retweet

    I’m not a conspiracy theorist, but...

    https://twitter.com/russincheshire/status/1249587870215659520?s=21

    Given he was in ICU for two weeks and the PM for three days, I'm not sure how his anecdote is at all relevant.
    In ICU for something different.

    https://twitter.com/russincheshire/status/720957475403509760?s=21
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675
    DougSeal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DougSeal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic he’s a lawyer and the public love lawyers.

    Cf Tony Blair.

    Mrs Brooke, who is something of a middle of the road floating voter, has taken a dislike to Starmer.

    No idea why,
    My experience, the more time people spend with lawyers or see more of them on the telly, they love them more.
    Depends what the lawyer is doing in my experience. My clients think I'm okay until they get the bill.
    Explaining disbursements was my highlights.

    Or why when they spoke to me for a minute they got billed for six minutes.
    Bit of self puffery, but I agree with that, I try and do work for a fixed fee whenever I can these days. Litigation remains a pain when your nice straightforward unfair dismissal ends up in the Court of Appeal, but advising on anything transactional shouldn't be done on hourly rates anymore IMHO.
    One of the best things about working for a company for the last decade is that I don't have to worry about that sort of stuff anymore*.

    Not having to account for your working day in six minute blocks is the most liberating thing ever.

    *Except when external counsel bills a lot
  • DAlexanderDAlexander Posts: 815
    Could he have a problem with Labour leavers? I know of some that were pretty angry about attempts to prevent Brexit, which he was heavily involved in.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    I still can't believe OGH voted for the electorally toxic predecessor.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,878
    ukpaul said:

    Pagan2 said:

    ukpaul said:

    Pagan2 said:

    ukpaul said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Anybody still thinks we are going to get a South Korean type system without certain sections of the media making a hell of a racket and special interest grouping mounting long winded legal challenges....

    Somebody clearly very keen to leak to the Guardian all this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/nhs-coronavirus-app-memo-discussed-giving-ministers-power-to-de-anonymise-users

    Surely the major problem with this app is that it is next to useless unless it is compulsory. A compulsory app and compulsory use of a smartphone if you are outside your house would work. Someone needs to buy me a smartphone, though. :)
    Making smartphone possession and download of apps I think is a step that goes far too far
    The choice being between, on the one hand, relative safety plus free movement or, on the other, either a longer lockdown or having to gamble with your health/life? Surely the vast majority of people would prefer the former?
    What percentage of people would have to install the app though? I know I wouldn't but then I don't carry my phone with me anyway when out and about
    Even 95% takeup would suggest that every time 20 people meet then that group could be compromised. Could businesses make it a condition of employment?
    The reason why I broadly support the lockdown measures but would baulk at compulsory app and smart phone usage is purely that while I fully expect lockdown measures to be rolled back I do not trust the uk governement of any colour not to quite like the idea of compulsory apps to monitor us.

    While some companies might make it compulsory I am sure not all would and I don't see it being a popular thing to encourage you to work for those that do.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic he’s a lawyer and the public love lawyers.

    Cf Tony Blair.

    Mrs Brooke, who is something of a middle of the road floating voter, has taken a dislike to Starmer.

    No idea why,
    My experience, the more time people spend with lawyers or see more of them on the telly, they love them more.
    Is this apology for any offence caused from a parody account, or from a long standing Tory who worked for David Cameron and says he is Europe editor at The Economist?

    https://twitter.com/chrislockwd/status/1249590097252663297?s=21
    It was a pretty shocking error of judgement to post it in the first place.
    The apology is from the same source as the original tweet, so it could still be the parody account @TheScreamingEagles claimed it to be last night.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic he’s a lawyer and the public love lawyers.

    Cf Tony Blair.

    Mrs Brooke, who is something of a middle of the road floating voter, has taken a dislike to Starmer.

    No idea why,
    My experience, the more time people spend with lawyers or see more of them on the telly, they love them more.
    Is this apology for any offence caused from a parody account, or from a long standing Tory who worked for David Cameron and says he is Europe editor at The Economist?

    https://twitter.com/chrislockwd/status/1249590097252663297?s=21
    It is a weird acccount because there is no Chris Lockwood listed as being Europe editor at the Economist

    http://mediadirectory.economist.com/

    And the Chris Lockwood who worked there says he was US and Asia, but not Europe, editor...

    http://www.csap.cam.ac.uk/network/christopher-lockwood/

    I don't get it myself.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    DougSeal said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic he’s a lawyer and the public love lawyers.

    Cf Tony Blair.

    Mrs Brooke, who is something of a middle of the road floating voter, has taken a dislike to Starmer.

    No idea why,
    My experience, the more time people spend with lawyers or see more of them on the telly, they love them more.
    Is this apology for any offence caused from a parody account, or from a long standing Tory who worked for David Cameron and says he is Europe editor at The Economist?

    https://twitter.com/chrislockwd/status/1249590097252663297?s=21
    It is a weird acccount because there is no Chris Lockwood listed as being Europe editor at the Economist

    http://mediadirectory.economist.com/

    And the Chris Lockwood who worked there says he was US and Asia, but not Europe, editor...

    http://www.csap.cam.ac.uk/network/christopher-lockwood/

    I don't get it myself.
    I think he used to be their Europe editor, you can find articles by him on their website.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675
    DougSeal said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic he’s a lawyer and the public love lawyers.

    Cf Tony Blair.

    Mrs Brooke, who is something of a middle of the road floating voter, has taken a dislike to Starmer.

    No idea why,
    My experience, the more time people spend with lawyers or see more of them on the telly, they love them more.
    Is this apology for any offence caused from a parody account, or from a long standing Tory who worked for David Cameron and says he is Europe editor at The Economist?

    https://twitter.com/chrislockwd/status/1249590097252663297?s=21
    It is a weird acccount because there is no Chris Lockwood listed as being Europe editor at the Economist

    http://mediadirectory.economist.com/

    And the Chris Lockwood who worked there says he was US and Asia, but not Europe, editor...

    http://www.csap.cam.ac.uk/network/christopher-lockwood/

    I don't get it myself.
    I know a few people who know Chris, I asked around last night if it was him, most of don't think it is, but some people are making checks.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    ukpaul said:

    Pagan2 said:

    ukpaul said:

    Pagan2 said:

    ukpaul said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Anybody still thinks we are going to get a South Korean type system without certain sections of the media making a hell of a racket and special interest grouping mounting long winded legal challenges....

    Somebody clearly very keen to leak to the Guardian all this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/nhs-coronavirus-app-memo-discussed-giving-ministers-power-to-de-anonymise-users

    Surely the major problem with this app is that it is next to useless unless it is compulsory. A compulsory app and compulsory use of a smartphone if you are outside your house would work. Someone needs to buy me a smartphone, though. :)
    Making smartphone possession and download of apps I think is a step that goes far too far
    The choice being between, on the one hand, relative safety plus free movement or, on the other, either a longer lockdown or having to gamble with your health/life? Surely the vast majority of people would prefer the former?
    What percentage of people would have to install the app though? I know I wouldn't but then I don't carry my phone with me anyway when out and about
    Even 95% takeup would suggest that every time 20 people meet then that group could be compromised. Could businesses make it a condition of employment?
    Isn't one approach to start lockdown relaxation by allowing it first to people willing to carry a phone with the app? We could all choose whether the surveillance was so worrying that we preferred to stay at home until further relaxation later. I'd guess that most people would be OK with it, and that would get the economy off the floor.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    DougSeal said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic he’s a lawyer and the public love lawyers.

    Cf Tony Blair.

    Mrs Brooke, who is something of a middle of the road floating voter, has taken a dislike to Starmer.

    No idea why,
    My experience, the more time people spend with lawyers or see more of them on the telly, they love them more.
    Is this apology for any offence caused from a parody account, or from a long standing Tory who worked for David Cameron and says he is Europe editor at The Economist?

    https://twitter.com/chrislockwd/status/1249590097252663297?s=21
    It is a weird acccount because there is no Chris Lockwood listed as being Europe editor at the Economist

    http://mediadirectory.economist.com/

    And the Chris Lockwood who worked there says he was US and Asia, but not Europe, editor...

    http://www.csap.cam.ac.uk/network/christopher-lockwood/

    I don't get it myself.
    Possibly a fraudulent account.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020
    NickPalmer said:

    ukpaul said:

    Pagan2 said:

    ukpaul said:

    Pagan2 said:

    ukpaul said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Anybody still thinks we are going to get a South Korean type system without certain sections of the media making a hell of a racket and special interest grouping mounting long winded legal challenges....

    Somebody clearly very keen to leak to the Guardian all this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/nhs-coronavirus-app-memo-discussed-giving-ministers-power-to-de-anonymise-users

    Surely the major problem with this app is that it is next to useless unless it is compulsory. A compulsory app and compulsory use of a smartphone if you are outside your house would work. Someone needs to buy me a smartphone, though. :)
    Making smartphone possession and download of apps I think is a step that goes far too far
    The choice being between, on the one hand, relative safety plus free movement or, on the other, either a longer lockdown or having to gamble with your health/life? Surely the vast majority of people would prefer the former?
    What percentage of people would have to install the app though? I know I wouldn't but then I don't carry my phone with me anyway when out and about
    Even 95% takeup would suggest that every time 20 people meet then that group could be compromised. Could businesses make it a condition of employment?
    Isn't one approach to start lockdown relaxation by allowing it first to people willing to carry a phone with the app? We could all choose whether the surveillance was so worrying that we preferred to stay at home until further relaxation later. I'd guess that most people would be OK with it, and that would get the economy off the floor.
    How would you enforce this? You would need to spy on all those out and about to check if they have the app / bluetooth is on.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    DAlexander said:

    Could he have a problem with Labour leavers? I know of some that were pretty angry about attempts to prevent Brexit, which he was heavily involved in.

    +27 net with them, apparently. I doubt if that will be an issue in 2024.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217
    Congratulations to @Jam_Monkey and @rkrkrk who between them discovered three examples of Senatorial candidates beating the winning vote count from the previous Presidential election.

    I have contacted them both and they will both be getting Amazon vouchers :smile:
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    DAlexander said:

    Could he have a problem with Labour leavers? I know of some that were pretty angry about attempts to prevent Brexit, which he was heavily involved in.

    If the electorate in England really does end up cleaving along a durable Leave/Remain faultline, in much the same way as the Yes/No split has become set in stone in Scotland, then Labour might as well give up and go home.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,931
    edited April 2020
    felix said:

    The message of this polling to supporters of Jeremy Corbyn could not be more clear and is therefore certain to be ignored by them.

    The message of this poll is that Corbyn was toxic but says nothing about policy so unless Corbyn's supporters see the man himself as the king across the water, surely they should be encouraged by this.
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Midlands deaths higher than London in the latest set. And North West up there as well.

    It seems to be kicking off more up here in Yorkshire now, as well. It appears that the focus may well be moving north of Birmingham for the next stage. Still not up to the level of London’s problem though.
This discussion has been closed.