It doesn't sound too different to the situation here...
Er yer wrong.
You mean the 300 new ventilators from China?
Just checking on the Yellowperilometer, is that a good or a bad thing?
We have gone from 5000 pre-CV to over 10,000 now. Another 1500 coming in less than 2 weeks from abroad. And that is before any of the Dyson new style ones or knocks off come of the Smiths made ones come on stream.
I think there is a little bit of smoke and mirrors about the 5>10k
Iirc they define it as “available to the NHS” or something.
Obviously it’s a good thing, but it’s just redeploying private, military and OR systems rather than “new” ventilators
Question about self isolation. I've had it and done the 7 days and the rest of the family are almost done with the 14. However my wife now suspects she has it too. If she develops the symptoms does that mean my children now need to do another 14 days?
Question about self isolation. I've had it and done the 7 days and the rest of the family are almost done with the 14. However my wife now suspects she has it too. If she develops the symptoms does that mean my children now need to do another 14 days?
Yes, because her infectious period will run later than yours
Question about self isolation. I've had it and done the 7 days and the rest of the family are almost done with the 14. However my wife now suspects she has it too. If she develops the symptoms does that mean my children now need to do another 14 days?
Yes, because her infectious period will run later than yours
That's what I assumed but the 111 website isn't all that specific.
It seems to me that there is a message about viral load which is a route to moving out of lockdown. The variance in deaths vs infection rates in different countries is to great to be explained by variances in healthcare provision and capacity. The question of course is how much it is down to levels of testing.
If there is a message to be put out (assuming true - one for the experts) that you have generally little to fear from catching the virus, as long as you catch it in the “right” way and avoid high viral load then there is advice that can go with that. And businesses can reopen on the basis that they, and individual operate within these parameters.
I don't know if anyone saw the news from ABC in the US suggesting intelligence reports that an outbreak was going on in Wuhan reached officials desks in November.
So how long was it going on before US Intelligence put 2 and 2 together to get 4 back then?
So it started October?
September?
And when did it first leave China?
I've always had a thought, with no scientific foundation, that it was spread well out of China in January/February but if you aren't looking for it you aren't going to see it
Wasn’t it in free circulation in Lombardy in December?
“We had milder interventions in place,” said Edmunds, because no one thought it would be acceptable politically “to shut the country down.” He added: “We didn’t model it because it didn’t seem to be on the agenda. And Imperial (College) didn’t look at it either.” The NERVTAG committee agreed, noting in its minutes that tough measures in the short term would be pointless, as they “would only delay the UK outbreak, not prevent it.”
That limited approach mirrored the UK’s longstanding pandemic flu strategy. The Department of Health declined a request from Reuters for a copy of its updated pandemic plan, without providing a reason. But a copy of the 2011 “UK Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy 2011,” which a spokesman said was still relevant, stated the “working presumption will be that Government will not impose any such restrictions...
It’s quite long, but worth reading in full. A theme which emerges is that a government rightly making policy on the basis of scientific advice received advice from scientists which derives to some extent from some assumptions which themselves are not science based.
The recent modelling in the East Midlands has reduced by 50% the number needing ventilation by 50%. In Leicester we are forecasting peaking at about 150 in ICU (usual capacity around 50) now. We should be able to manage that.
There is some controversy over the merits of intubated ventilation vs CPAP and high flow nasal oxygen. On the one hand the former is more invasive, and more personnel intensive, on the other hand the latter can exceed the oxygen supply bandwidth of the hospital (or particular wards) and aerosolises the area around the patient with the Coronavirus.
I think the Guardian report the government think they now need 18,000 ventilators (down from what about 30,000 they initially talked about) and are at about 12,000 by next week.
Smith knock-offs and Dyson models are suppose to be ramping up production shortly.
Could still be short, but Vallance the other day seemed again to be much more confident in terms of capacity, talking instead about some hospitals hitting max capacity, but spare elsewhere.
I believe the Excel centre is where in a real emergency they will fly people to.
My understanding is that Excel was going to be used only for patients who are sedated and on ventilators. Minimises need for ancillary functions there and frees up capacity elsewhere
Wonder how many people are paying income tax at the moment.
I am and a little more following our state pension increase this week
Hardly a net contributor to the state in that case. If companies are making a profit, companies are not paying salaries and people are not spending on VATable goods - who is paying the bills right now?
You are correct but I have paid huge sums of tax into the system over my working days
But as far as your last paaragraph is concerned it is an economic armageddon
When you contributed you paid other people’s pensions, who is paying yours today?
There were 30M income tax payers in the UK. Around 10M are now furloughed. 16% of workforce are public sector.
Who is paying the bills today?
Tomorrow is paying for it, as usual? What's your point though... do you think the government should be spending less?
My point is that economic position is far, far worse than currently discussed. We talk about the extra spending, but we don’t talk about the total collapse of tax income.
Of course there is going to be an effect on tax revenue, I don't think anyone has suggested otherwise. Currently, the focus is on helping people get through this, so it isn't all that surprising that there hasn't been much discussion on tax revenue in the next financial year.
It’s more than an effect, there is next to no tax revenue. It’s and Only Fools and Horses economy. No income tax, no vat, no corp tax, no fuel duty.
plus no business rates, no booze duty, no passenger duty, no gambling duty, no capital gains tax, no stamp duty, no NI, no nothing. A distasteful thought around growth in inheritance tax strikes me, but I shall push that to one side.
This is Napleonic wars, Great Depression stuff. We don't want to face it but is is coming down the line like a freight train.
If we’re going to be apocalyptic I had an evil, contrarian, Malthusian thought today.
What if an economy just let the virus do it’s thang. How bad would it be? Maybe not that awful. You’d lose a few million pensioners. Who provide relatively little economically. Also the disabled, the morbidly obese, the smokers, the mad.
Is this a disaster in Darwinian terms? Probably the opposite.
I am not espousing this, but if you a flinty-nosed eugenicist, them’s the facts. The society that first accepts the realities of corona might thrive in contrast to a society which tries desperately to suppress it.
Partly what is happening with the cutting loose of care homes to take care of themselves. The problem is the more you let the virus rage unchecked the more the health service falls over and the more brutal you have to be in triaging people out of meaningful treatment. So what do you do with them? Put them in temporary hospitals which are effectively death camps? Send them back to their not yet infected families? Weld them in? It is one thing to imagine how society might be "improved" if a million old and/or fat people magically disappeared, but another to supervise their gradual removal by the virus without a societal meltdown.
Indeed. Which is why I am not espousing this. The maths of social Darwinism in a pandemic doesn’t embrace the emotional trauma of, say, half a million excess British deaths in a season - many of them painfully young.
Note how even China could not accept this. So they locked down.
There is no easy answer. There isn’t even a bad answer. All the options are grim. I really don’t envy politicians anywhere who have to carry this can over the next few years.
Even though you have retreated to 500,000, this is still way above all official projections. Indeed the forecast for the US - which has mismanaged this from the beginning - has today been reduced to 60,000 deaths, total, not excess. The large majority of these being already elderly or ill.
Sad though every death is, when we look back at this period it will be a story of healthcare in crisis, and of social and economic disruption, not of large numbers of extra deaths.
Wonder how many people are paying income tax at the moment.
I am and a little more following our state pension increase this week
Hardly a net contributor to the state in that case. If companies are making a profit, companies are not paying salaries and people are not spending on VATable goods - who is paying the bills right now?
You are correct but I have paid huge sums of tax into the system over my working days
But as far as your last paaragraph is concerned it is an economic armageddon
When you contributed you paid other people’s pensions, who is paying yours today?
There were 30M income tax payers in the UK. Around 10M are now furloughed. 16% of workforce are public sector.
Who is paying the bills today?
Tomorrow is paying for it, as usual? What's your point though... do you think the government should be spending less?
My point is that economic position is far, far worse than currently discussed. We talk about the extra spending, but we don’t talk about the total collapse of tax income.
Of course there is going to be an effect on tax revenue, I don't think anyone has suggested otherwise. Currently, the focus is on helping people get through this, so it isn't all that surprising that there hasn't been much discussion on tax revenue in the next financial year.
It’s more than an effect, there is next to no tax revenue. It’s and Only Fools and Horses economy. No income tax, no vat, no corp tax, no fuel duty.
plus no business rates, no booze duty, no passenger duty, no gambling duty, no capital gains tax, no stamp duty, no NI, no nothing. A distasteful thought around growth in inheritance tax strikes me, but I shall push that to one side.
This is Napleonic wars, Great Depression stuff. We don't want to face it but is is coming down the line like a freight train.
If we’re going to be apocalyptic I had an evil, contrarian, Malthusian thought today.
What if an economy just let the virus do it’s thang. How bad would it be? Maybe not that awful. You’d lose a few million pensioners. Who provide relatively little economically. Also the disabled, the morbidly obese, the smokers, the mad.
Is this a disaster in Darwinian terms? Probably the opposite.
I am not espousing this, but if you a flinty-nosed eugenicist, them’s the facts. The society that first accepts the realities of corona might thrive in contrast to a society which tries desperately to suppress it.
Partly what is happening with the cutting loose of care homes to take care of themselves. The problem is the more you let the virus rage unchecked the more the health service falls over and the more brutal you have to be in triaging people out of meaningful treatment. So what do you do with them? Put them in temporary hospitals which are effectively death camps? Send them back to their not yet infected families? Weld them in? It is one thing to imagine how society might be "improved" if a million old and/or fat people magically disappeared, but another to supervise their gradual removal by the virus without a societal meltdown.
Indeed. Which is why I am not espousing this. The maths of social Darwinism in a pandemic doesn’t embrace the emotional trauma of, say, half a million excess British deaths in a season - many of them painfully young.
Note how even China could not accept this. So they locked down.
There is no easy answer. There isn’t even a bad answer. All the options are grim. I really don’t envy politicians anywhere who have to carry this can over the next few years.
Even though you have retreated to 500,000, this is still way above all official projections. Indeed the forecast for the US - which has mismanaged this from the beginning - has today been reduced to 60,000 deaths, total, not excess. The large majority of these being already elderly or ill.
Sad though every death is, when we look back at this period it will be a story of healthcare in crisis, and of social and economic disruption, not of large numbers of extra deaths.
Those estimates are for deaths in the first wave. Without a vaccine, there will be several more.
A mild, calm night last night, but the big moon was a distraction for the moths from the trap. Two new species for the year however: Nut-tree Tussock and Brindled Beauty.
Almost all the clusters are linked to low wage worker dormitories. And Singapore has now banned all foreign arrivals - even non-Singapore national residents are not being allowed back in unless they are working in key sectors like medicine. Meanwhile, the U.K. is wide open with no checks on arrivals and no mandatory self quarantine of arrivals.
The latest analysis of data from the COVID Symptom Tracker app, used by over 2 million people, shows the rate of new symptoms being reported nationally has slowed down significantly in the past few days. The latest figures estimate that 1.4 million people in the UK aged 20-69 have symptomatic COVID, a fall from 1.9 million on the 1st April. https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-isolation
A mild, calm night last night, but the big moon was a distraction for the moths from the trap. Two new species for the year however: Nut-tree Tussock and Brindled Beauty.
A very naive question. Why are moths attracted by lights?
The latest analysis of data from the COVID Symptom Tracker app, used by over 2 million people, shows the rate of new symptoms being reported nationally has slowed down significantly in the past few days. The latest figures estimate that 1.4 million people in the UK aged 20-69 have symptomatic COVID, a fall from 1.9 million on the 1st April. https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-isolation
The latest analysis of data from the COVID Symptom Tracker app, used by over 2 million people, shows the rate of new symptoms being reported nationally has slowed down significantly in the past few days. The latest figures estimate that 1.4 million people in the UK aged 20-69 have symptomatic COVID, a fall from 1.9 million on the 1st April. https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-isolation
So overall herd immunity up to, what, 5%?
Well if 2-3million have had symptomatic CV, then doesn’t that mean that est. 10-15m have had it in total?
Comments
Ministers discuss relaxing work restrictions and reopening schools after Easter"
https://www.ft.com/content/fb1a6279-a3f8-4181-ac64-3369b2ed1ae2
A Government of National Unity isn't something I hear on many people's lips?
Iirc they define it as “available to the NHS” or something.
Obviously it’s a good thing, but it’s just redeploying private, military and OR systems rather than “new” ventilators
If there is a message to be put out (assuming true - one for the experts) that you have generally little to fear from catching the virus, as long as you catch it in the “right” way and avoid high viral load then there is advice that can go with that. And businesses can reopen on the basis that they, and individual operate within these parameters.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-path-speci-idUSKBN21P1VF
As they watched China impose its lockdown, the British scientists assumed that such drastic actions would never be acceptable in a democracy like the UK. Among those modelling the outbreak, such stringent counter-measures were not, at first, examined.
“We had milder interventions in place,” said Edmunds, because no one thought it would be acceptable politically “to shut the country down.” He added: “We didn’t model it because it didn’t seem to be on the agenda. And Imperial (College) didn’t look at it either.” The NERVTAG committee agreed, noting in its minutes that tough measures in the short term would be pointless, as they “would only delay the UK outbreak, not prevent it.”
That limited approach mirrored the UK’s longstanding pandemic flu strategy. The Department of Health declined a request from Reuters for a copy of its updated pandemic plan, without providing a reason. But a copy of the 2011 “UK Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy 2011,” which a spokesman said was still relevant, stated the “working presumption will be that Government will not impose any such restrictions...
It’s quite long, but worth reading in full. A theme which emerges is that a government rightly making policy on the basis of scientific advice received advice from scientists which derives to some extent from some assumptions which themselves are not science based.
Sad though every death is, when we look back at this period it will be a story of healthcare in crisis, and of social and economic disruption, not of large numbers of extra deaths.
Without a vaccine, there will be several more.
https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-isolation