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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden moves to a 92% chance on Betfair following the Sanders p

SystemSystem Posts: 12,169
edited April 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden moves to a 92% chance on Betfair following the Sanders pull-out & Harris remains VP favourite

Following last night’s Wisconsin primary the big WH2020 news today has been the widely expected withdrawal from the race by Bernie Sanders. This means that Biden now has a clear run into to what would have been the convention in three and a half months.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    First, again!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Gretchen for VP.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    If Harris is veep favourite why is she available at 190 for next POTUS?

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    Wot no Nighthawks? And 3rd like Priti Patel, maybe.

    It's under lockdown.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    Wot no Nighthawks? And 3rd like Priti Patel, maybe.

    or maybe not :wink:
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    edited April 2020
    From the last thread :smile:

    Beelzebub v Trump.

    https://cthulhuforamerica.com/

    Why not vote for the Greater evil?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    RobD said:

    Wot no Nighthawks? And 3rd like Priti Patel, maybe.

    It's under lockdown.
    Maybe I was referring to Patel, maybe to Nighhawks... who knows?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    MaxPB said:
    :o I'm utterly shocked that adding extra layers of bureaucracy on things makes things go slower.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    MaxPB said:
    It doesn't sound too different to the situation here...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Wot no Nighthawks? And 3rd like Priti Patel, maybe.

    It's under lockdown.
    Maybe I was referring to Patel, maybe to Nighhawks... who knows?
    I'd assumed that she was under lockdown, after having been sat between Johnson and Hancock at the last PMQs. However unless she developed symptoms she should be out by now.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217
    stodge said:

    rcs1000 said:



    The question is not "will we see another wave of CV-19 cases?", but "how rapidly will CV-19 cases grow once restrictions are eased?"

    And that's why restrictions are going to be gradually removed, perhaps with different rules for different regions. The goal is not to have R of 0.1 (which would be amazing), but to have it in the 0.8 to 1.5 range. In other words, to ensure that instead of each infection turning into 3+ infections, to make sure than it's 1 or 1 and a bit.

    If the second "wave" sees doubling of cases every 15 days, rather than every 3 days, then it can be managed rather better. It moves to being something chronic that we deal with, while treatment is improved and (hopefully) a vaccine created.

    As a classically educated overweight man in his late 50s, I am frankly scared if I contract this virus it won't end well for me.

    In London I don't see how social distancing works once the restrictions are eased - it's not really effective now. The Underground will be as crowded as ever once businesses are allowed to re-open and as I've said before it will be those who will have no option but to go back to work who will be at the greatest risk.
    Well, I think that's easy.

    Firstly, you're not allowed to travel on public transport without face covering.

    Secondly, you have hand sanitisers stations everywhere.

    Thirdly, you encourage working from home

    Fourthly, you don't let people into tube stations (or onto buses) when they're near full

    Fifthly, you limit the number of people allowed in stores and bars and restaraunts,

    Remember, when this started you'd pass the virus onto 3 people on average. The goal is to minimise the chance that someone has it passes it on to more than one. These measures would dramatically reduce the number of people you're likely to pass the virus on to.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:
    It doesn't sound too different to the situation here...
    For sure, though the government seem to have gone for manufacturing rather than procurement so if both schemes take a similar amount of time to deliver then I'd rather have our scheme.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited April 2020
    Jesus, Nevada just suddenly announced 22k new cases out of nowhere.
    Edit: typo at worldometers?
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:
    It doesn't sound too different to the situation here...
    Er yer wrong.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Andrew said:

    Jesus, Nevada just suddenly announced 22k new cases out of nowhere.
    Edit: typo at worldometers?

    2,500 to 24,500 in a day...?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Andrew said:

    Jesus, Nevada just suddenly announced 22k new cases out of nowhere.
    Edit: typo at worldometers?

    Probably. My wife was talking to her sister in Las Vegas just now: b-i-l is an ER doc there so I think she would have mentioned it!

    In fact b-i-l may have to take a pay cut because currently ER usage rates are way down as non-CV patients are steering clear. Whether he'll get a pay rise when the inevitable CV surge hits is unclear.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    TGOHF666 said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:
    It doesn't sound too different to the situation here...
    Er yer wrong.
    You mean the 300 new ventilators from China?

    Just checking on the Yellowperilometer, is that a good or a bad thing?
  • TGOHF666 said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:
    It doesn't sound too different to the situation here...
    Er yer wrong.
    The EU are really experiencing disagreements left right and centre, but if you express it you are likely to come under fire from those who see the EU as utopia and cannot be criticised

    I would respect those who are in love with the EU if they would at times act as a friend and provide constructive criticism but you do not see it
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    alex_ said:

    Andrew said:

    Jesus, Nevada just suddenly announced 22k new cases out of nowhere.
    Edit: typo at worldometers?

    2,500 to 24,500 in a day...?
    Think it's actually, er +129
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,335
    Can I just say thanks to all the posters on here who ran down Joe Biden because they failed to get what the guys appeal was always going to be. One of the great joys of the primary season is sometimes how too much is read too early

    All being well, I can soon cash the chips in

    Out of the field that dropped out Harris and Klobuchar probably have the best chance of getting the running mate position
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    TGOHF666 said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:
    It doesn't sound too different to the situation here...
    Er yer wrong.
    You mean the 300 new ventilators from China?

    Just checking on the Yellowperilometer, is that a good or a bad thing?
    New ventilators have been designed are being manufactured at pace in the Uk. The efforts and pace has been a miracle.

    Final sign off from regulators is imminent.


  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,335

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Wot no Nighthawks? And 3rd like Priti Patel, maybe.

    It's under lockdown.
    Maybe I was referring to Patel, maybe to Nighhawks... who knows?
    I'd assumed that she was under lockdown, after having been sat between Johnson and Hancock at the last PMQs. However unless she developed symptoms she should be out by now.
    Patel is the Kim Jong Un of the Cabinet, she will defeat all enemies including virii.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149
    alex_ said:

    We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
    Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    TGOHF666 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:
    It doesn't sound too different to the situation here...
    Er yer wrong.
    You mean the 300 new ventilators from China?

    Just checking on the Yellowperilometer, is that a good or a bad thing?
    New ventilators have been designed are being manufactured at pace in the Uk. The efforts and pace has been a miracle.

    Final sign off from regulators is imminent.
    You didn't answer my question.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
    Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
    I got the impression last weekend that the media were gagging for the Govt to toughen the lockdown to ban exercise etc. They've probably got dozens of stories just ready to run of the dreadful living conditions many experience, for whom a daily dose of fresh air is the only thing keeping them sane. But to maximise the story the Govt has to clamp down first...
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    TGOHF666 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:
    It doesn't sound too different to the situation here...
    Er yer wrong.
    You mean the 300 new ventilators from China?

    Just checking on the Yellowperilometer, is that a good or a bad thing?
    New ventilators have been designed are being manufactured at pace in the Uk. The efforts and pace has been a miracle.

    Final sign off from regulators is imminent.
    You didn't answer my question.
    Didn’t I ? Have a tissue.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020

    TGOHF666 said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:
    It doesn't sound too different to the situation here...
    Er yer wrong.
    You mean the 300 new ventilators from China?

    Just checking on the Yellowperilometer, is that a good or a bad thing?
    We have gone from 5000 pre-CV to over 10,000 now. Another 1500 coming in less than 2 weeks from abroad. And that is before any of the Dyson new style ones or knocks off come of the Smiths made ones come on stream.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    TGOHF666 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:
    It doesn't sound too different to the situation here...
    Er yer wrong.
    You mean the 300 new ventilators from China?

    Just checking on the Yellowperilometer, is that a good or a bad thing?
    New ventilators have been designed are being manufactured at pace in the Uk. The efforts and pace has been a miracle.

    Final sign off from regulators is imminent.
    You didn't answer my question.
    Didn’t I ? Have a tissue.
    You ok Hun? You seem a little tetchy.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    TGOHF666 said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:
    It doesn't sound too different to the situation here...
    Er yer wrong.
    You mean the 300 new ventilators from China?

    Just checking on the Yellowperilometer, is that a good or a bad thing?
    We have gone from 5000 to over 10,000 now. Another 1500 coming in less than 2 weeks. And that is before any of the Dyson new style ones or knocks off come of the Smiths made ones come on stream.
    I wonder how many of those would have been forfeit in the EU scheme.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    TGOHF666 said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:
    It doesn't sound too different to the situation here...
    Er yer wrong.
    You mean the 300 new ventilators from China?

    Just checking on the Yellowperilometer, is that a good or a bad thing?
    We have gone from 5000 pre-CV to over 10,000 now. Another 1500 coming in less than 2 weeks from abroad. And that is before any of the Dyson new style ones or knocks off come of the Smiths made ones come on stream.
    Covid - like Brexit - has given some the opportunity to indulge in their favourite pastime - sneering at their own country.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    RobD said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:
    It doesn't sound too different to the situation here...
    Er yer wrong.
    You mean the 300 new ventilators from China?

    Just checking on the Yellowperilometer, is that a good or a bad thing?
    We have gone from 5000 to over 10,000 now. Another 1500 coming in less than 2 weeks. And that is before any of the Dyson new style ones or knocks off come of the Smiths made ones come on stream.
    I wonder how many of those would have been forfeit in the EU scheme.
    I think it is fairly clear that the government told porky pies about joining the EU scheme, and more than likely for the reason we would have to share.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020
    It of course should be added that the new F1 CPAP masks as well, what did they say they could make of those, a 1000 a day?

    And we know now that ventilators are a bit of a red herring. Getting people on CPAP seems to give people a much better chance of not having to go on a ventilator (so crucial we have loads of them) and unfortunately for many oldies they won't survive even if they get put on one.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608

    MaxPB said:
    The EU does not seem to have distinguished itself during this crisis. No doubt Tusk and Juncker would have achieved more than their replacements, or maybe not.
    They will be ready for the second wave, no doubt.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    It is not California Biden needs but Michigan, he should pick Whitmer
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    RobD said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:
    It doesn't sound too different to the situation here...
    Er yer wrong.
    You mean the 300 new ventilators from China?

    Just checking on the Yellowperilometer, is that a good or a bad thing?
    We have gone from 5000 to over 10,000 now. Another 1500 coming in less than 2 weeks. And that is before any of the Dyson new style ones or knocks off come of the Smiths made ones come on stream.
    I wonder how many of those would have been forfeit in the EU scheme.
    I think it is fairly clear that the government told porky pies about joining the EU scheme, and more than likely for the reason we would have to share.
    They would be arguing over the pork barrels.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217
    RobD said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:
    It doesn't sound too different to the situation here...
    Er yer wrong.
    You mean the 300 new ventilators from China?

    Just checking on the Yellowperilometer, is that a good or a bad thing?
    We have gone from 5000 to over 10,000 now. Another 1500 coming in less than 2 weeks. And that is before any of the Dyson new style ones or knocks off come of the Smiths made ones come on stream.
    I wonder how many of those would have been forfeit in the EU scheme.
    My understanding was that national governments were perfectly free to pursue their own purchasing strategies in addition to the EU one. (And it wouldn't even make sense otherwise, given most of the purchasing in Germany happens at the local level.)

    Ultimately, we'll only know in six months time who was right and who was wrong. If we have plenty of ventilators - as seems to be the case - then it will be clear the government was in the right.

    On the other hand, if the EU countries are drowning in the things, and we're seeing a lot of excess deaths due to lack of them, then we'll be able to conclude the government made a mistake.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608
    RobD said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:
    It doesn't sound too different to the situation here...
    Er yer wrong.
    You mean the 300 new ventilators from China?

    Just checking on the Yellowperilometer, is that a good or a bad thing?
    We have gone from 5000 to over 10,000 now. Another 1500 coming in less than 2 weeks. And that is before any of the Dyson new style ones or knocks off come of the Smiths made ones come on stream.
    I wonder how many of those would have been forfeit in the EU scheme.
    That EU ventilator policy in full: What's yours is mine and what's mine's my own....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    HYUFD said:

    It is not California Biden needs but Michigan, he should pick Whitmer
    I'm green on both.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    edited April 2020

    MaxPB said:
    The EU does not seem to have distinguished itself during this crisis. No doubt Tusk and Juncker would have achieved more than their replacements, or maybe not.
    They will be ready for the second wave, no doubt.....
    The second wave theory is nonsense....this pandemic is going to be this horrible invisible enemy...terrifying the shit out of, until we get a vaccine that could be years away....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:
    The EU does not seem to have distinguished itself during this crisis. No doubt Tusk and Juncker would have achieved more than their replacements, or maybe not.
    They will be ready for the second wave, no doubt.....
    Tbh, even if our own scheme is successful, this isn't the time for triumphalism. If we have spare production capacity then we should help our friends in Europe. I wouldn't want the government to withhold any help on ideological grounds, it would be be completely unethical and I'd hope we are above that. If we are in a position to help, then we absolutely have to.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:
    The EU does not seem to have distinguished itself during this crisis. No doubt Tusk and Juncker would have achieved more than their replacements, or maybe not.
    They will be ready for the second wave, no doubt.....
    Tbh, even if our own scheme is successful, this isn't the time for triumphalism. If we have spare production capacity then we should help our friends in Europe. I wouldn't want the government to withhold any help on ideological grounds, it would be be completely unethical and I'd hope we are above that. If we are in a position to help, then we absolutely have to.
    Isn't that Dyson's plan? They will make 10,000 for the UK and 5,000 for whoever else needs them.

    But we have to be realistic, most countries are prioritising their own. We are short of reagents in the UK, because we normally get a lot of them from a German facility (as does most of Europe). I think we can guess where they ensure are adequately supplied first.

    It would be shocking poor governance if you let your own people and country go short.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217
    Yokes said:

    Can I just say thanks to all the posters on here who ran down Joe Biden because they failed to get what the guys appeal was always going to be. One of the great joys of the primary season is sometimes how too much is read too early

    All being well, I can soon cash the chips in

    Out of the field that dropped out Harris and Klobuchar probably have the best chance of getting the running mate position

    Biden won because the non-Biden moderate vote didn't coalesce around a single candidate. That Bloomberg, Klobuchar and Buttigieg were all going after the same votes left him space to still be relevant come South Carolina.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,930
    Yokes said:

    Can I just say thanks to all the posters on here who ran down Joe Biden because they failed to get what the guys appeal was always going to be. One of the great joys of the primary season is sometimes how too much is read too early

    All being well, I can soon cash the chips in

    Out of the field that dropped out Harris and Klobuchar probably have the best chance of getting the running mate position

    By any objective standard, Biden ought to have been toast, and that I can aftertime a price over 300 for the presidency shows that. (Oddly I did not back him at all for Democratic nominee so I'm not really sure what went on there.)

    Biden is 1.08 to be Dem nominee, and Trump 1.07 to be GOP pick. Both look generous in normal circumstances but these are not ordinary times. Probably Trump should be shorter than Biden.

    For VP, Gretchen Whitmer looks most plausible of the women recently suggested but there is time. I'm sceptical of beaten candidates because it opens the risk of the VP pick having attacked the nominee during the primaries.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:
    The EU does not seem to have distinguished itself during this crisis. No doubt Tusk and Juncker would have achieved more than their replacements, or maybe not.
    They will be ready for the second wave, no doubt.....
    Tbh, even if our own scheme is successful, this isn't the time for triumphalism. If we have spare production capacity then we should help our friends in Europe. I wouldn't want the government to withhold any help on ideological grounds, it would be be completely unethical and I'd hope we are above that. If we are in a position to help, then we absolutely have to.
    Isn't that Dyson's plan? They will make 10,000 for the UK and 5,000 for whoever else needs them.
    Whoever needs them.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878

    TGOHF666 said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:
    It doesn't sound too different to the situation here...
    Er yer wrong.
    You mean the 300 new ventilators from China?

    Just checking on the Yellowperilometer, is that a good or a bad thing?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_re-education_camps
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:
    It doesn't sound too different to the situation here...
    Er yer wrong.
    You mean the 300 new ventilators from China?

    Just checking on the Yellowperilometer, is that a good or a bad thing?
    We have gone from 5000 to over 10,000 now. Another 1500 coming in less than 2 weeks. And that is before any of the Dyson new style ones or knocks off come of the Smiths made ones come on stream.
    I wonder how many of those would have been forfeit in the EU scheme.
    My understanding was that national governments were perfectly free to pursue their own purchasing strategies in addition to the EU one. (And it wouldn't even make sense otherwise, given most of the purchasing in Germany happens at the local level.)

    Ultimately, we'll only know in six months time who was right and who was wrong. If we have plenty of ventilators - as seems to be the case - then it will be clear the government was in the right.

    On the other hand, if the EU countries are drowning in the things, and we're seeing a lot of excess deaths due to lack of them, then we'll be able to conclude the government made a mistake.
    Please don't obstruct the usual suspects in their slavering certainty that the EU is terrible. It at least provides some light relief from the same folks' slavering certainty that the PRC deliberately unleashed Covid 19 upon the world and has covered up tens of thousands of deaths.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Can anybody point me to a place online I can buy a thermometer, that doesn't have 3 reviews from a brand nobody has every heard of?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,930
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:
    The EU does not seem to have distinguished itself during this crisis. No doubt Tusk and Juncker would have achieved more than their replacements, or maybe not.
    They will be ready for the second wave, no doubt.....
    Tbh, even if our own scheme is successful, this isn't the time for triumphalism. If we have spare production capacity then we should help our friends in Europe. I wouldn't want the government to withhold any help on ideological grounds, it would be be completely unethical and I'd hope we are above that. If we are in a position to help, then we absolutely have to.
    If we are going to be triumphalist we need first to check we are talking about the same things as the term ventilator seems to cover a very wide range.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
    Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
    We are locked in for years...in some way shape or form....

    The over 70's....if they want to stay alive stay at home....they'll never get insurance to go abroad....and they would be mad to take a trip longer than a walk around the block...

    Life has changed for the foreseeable future....maybe the next 10 years or more....

    I have this view...not from Eadric.....but from a very good source....
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    edited April 2020
    tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
    Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
    We are locked in for years...in some way shape or form....

    The over 70's....if they want to stay alive stay at home....they'll never get insurance to go abroad....and they would be mad to take a trip longer than a walk around the block...

    Life has changed for the foreseeable future....maybe the next 10 years or more....

    I have this view...not from Eadric.....but from a very good source....
    You're being too pessimistic IMO. I wouldn't pay any attention to the doom-mongers at the Daily Mail.
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 500
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:
    The EU does not seem to have distinguished itself during this crisis. No doubt Tusk and Juncker would have achieved more than their replacements, or maybe not.
    They will be ready for the second wave, no doubt.....
    Tbh, even if our own scheme is successful, this isn't the time for triumphalism. If we have spare production capacity then we should help our friends in Europe.
    Why should we be helping "our friends in Europe" when Nigeria has 500 ventilators for 200 million people?

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Yokes said:

    Can I just say thanks to all the posters on here who ran down Joe Biden because they failed to get what the guys appeal was always going to be. One of the great joys of the primary season is sometimes how too much is read too early

    All being well, I can soon cash the chips in

    Out of the field that dropped out Harris and Klobuchar probably have the best chance of getting the running mate position

    I say this as someone who backed Biden on the 24th of Feb @17.0 - it took a near perfect storm of events to keep Biden in the race (I have thought about it some more and now think that without the Ukraine impeachment events Biden would have withdrawn pre Iowa), his polling had the horrific pattern of going down as primaries got closer. In 99 other Universes Biden limped out going no where.

  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:
    The EU does not seem to have distinguished itself during this crisis. No doubt Tusk and Juncker would have achieved more than their replacements, or maybe not.
    They will be ready for the second wave, no doubt.....
    Tbh, even if our own scheme is successful, this isn't the time for triumphalism. If we have spare production capacity then we should help our friends in Europe.
    Why should we be helping "our friends in Europe" when Nigeria has 500 ventilators for 200 million people?

    DfiD are all over these new sources.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,708
    Germany is slowly but surely starting to look like everywhere else with the fatality rate for confirmed cases creeping up towards 2%.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Andy_JS said:

    tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
    Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
    We are locked in for years...in some way shape or form....

    The over 70's....if they want to stay alive stay at home....they'll never get insurance to go abroad....and they would be mad to take a trip longer than a walk around the block...

    Life has changed for the foreseeable future....maybe the next 10 years or more....

    I have this view...not from Eadric.....but from a very good source....
    You're being too pessimistic IMO. I wouldn't pay any attention to the doom-mongers at the Daily Mail.
    Well I have only volunteered (censored) of my time. Mrs U ain't going to be happy if it is years.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:
    The EU does not seem to have distinguished itself during this crisis. No doubt Tusk and Juncker would have achieved more than their replacements, or maybe not.
    They will be ready for the second wave, no doubt.....
    Tbh, even if our own scheme is successful, this isn't the time for triumphalism. If we have spare production capacity then we should help our friends in Europe. I wouldn't want the government to withhold any help on ideological grounds, it would be be completely unethical and I'd hope we are above that. If we are in a position to help, then we absolutely have to.
    If we are going to be triumphalist we need first to check we are talking about the same things as the term ventilator seems to cover a very wide range.
    I think in this context, "ventilator" means anything you would be happy to use if you were struggling to breathe....
  • tyson said:

    MaxPB said:
    The EU does not seem to have distinguished itself during this crisis. No doubt Tusk and Juncker would have achieved more than their replacements, or maybe not.
    They will be ready for the second wave, no doubt.....
    The second wave theory is nonsense....this pandemic is going to be this horrible invisible enemy...terrifying the shit out of, until we get a vaccine that could be years away....
    Our family story tonight of my son in laws elderly father (87) is horrific as he falls every day, his catheter leaks, he has lost a stone, and is confused. He has four carers every day and my son in law and his sister have to go and check him when he falls before an ambulance is called and even then they do not want him in hospital and he is refused admission to a care home

    And to add to the agony he does not have covid and cannot understand why his son and daughter wear protective gear when they visit him, and his daughter has only just recovered from covid type symptons

    And I agree Tyson this evil virus will not be slain without a vaccine
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020

    Germany is slowly but surely starting to look like everywhere else with the fatality rate for confirmed cases creeping up towards 2%.

    I heard a report on Sky News earlier saying even with their much larger capacity than the rest of Europe, their ICUs are now getting very full. Not Italy bursting, but some are at max capacity.

    The unfortunate reality is when you start talking about 10,000s of cases, that is widespread community transmission, and that means lots coming to ICU and nobody has a magic wand. Doesn't matter if it is Italy, France, Spain, UK or Germany, they are basically going to get the same treatment at the moment, and for oldies it isn't very effective.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    edited April 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
    Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
    We are locked in for years...in some way shape or form....

    The over 70's....if they want to stay alive stay at home....they'll never get insurance to go abroad....and they would be mad to take a trip longer than a walk around the block...

    Life has changed for the foreseeable future....maybe the next 10 years or more....

    I have this view...not from Eadric.....but from a very good source....
    You're being too pessimistic IMO.
    I wish I could tell you who told me this.....

    I can't......

    This virus is out and horrible....and kills....and it has probably only worked it's way through 2-5% of the population- and that is optimistic....

    How do you expect people who are vulnerable to be able to safely go outside when they can catch something that leads to a terrible, excruciating death a month later?

    Tell me how that one works.....
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441
    tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
    Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
    We are locked in for years...in some way shape or form....

    The over 70's....if they want to stay alive stay at home....they'll never get insurance to go abroad....and they would be mad to take a trip longer than a walk around the block...

    Life has changed for the foreseeable future....maybe the next 10 years or more....

    I have this view...not from Eadric.....but from a very good source....
    Hmm... Does that assume no medical advances? Feels a bit negative - not sure I've read any epidemiologists or virologists who are so pessimistic...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,930

    Can anybody point me to a place online I can buy a thermometer, that doesn't have 3 reviews from a brand nobody has every heard of?

    Just buy one. Thermometers are known technolgy and even if miscalibrated, you are probably more interested in changes than absolute values. Or get two and compare them.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,335
    I don't know if anyone saw the news from ABC in the US suggesting intelligence reports that an outbreak was going on in Wuhan reached officials desks in November.

    So how long was it going on before US Intelligence put 2 and 2 together to get 4 back then?

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
    Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
    We are locked in for years...in some way shape or form....

    The over 70's....if they want to stay alive stay at home....they'll never get insurance to go abroad....and they would be mad to take a trip longer than a walk around the block...

    Life has changed for the foreseeable future....maybe the next 10 years or more....

    I have this view...not from Eadric.....but from a very good source....
    I was thinking of how life would be after the lockdown... people being much more distant with each other, little booths in pubs, open plan offices partitioned, more home soirées than visiting restaurants... spoke to a mate tonight who loves a booze and he says if it is ended mid summer, everyone will be out down the pub, it will be wall to wall, he’ll be there...
  • blairfblairf Posts: 98
    Is the ventilator thing an example of focusing on the easily understood while ignoring the much more important but harder to figure out problem? The example I've seen is company boards spending half an hour talking about whether to refurbish the head office cycle parking, and just 3 minutes on a critical decision on investing in project A or B.

    We like to latch onto simple easily understood decisions/problems. The ventilator capacity thing is important but not really that important. What we do with the cluster f**k heading our way in terms of jobs, productivity, wealth, financial contagion etc. are far more important. If the world trips over the loan to loan, cross-collateralised assets, alt lending stuff.... it gets really horrible.

    Hopefully it won't happen and we can carry on arguing the toss over EU ventilator schemes.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:
    It doesn't sound too different to the situation here...
    Er yer wrong.
    You mean the 300 new ventilators from China?

    Just checking on the Yellowperilometer, is that a good or a bad thing?
    We have gone from 5000 to over 10,000 now. Another 1500 coming in less than 2 weeks. And that is before any of the Dyson new style ones or knocks off come of the Smiths made ones come on stream.
    I wonder how many of those would have been forfeit in the EU scheme.
    My understanding was that national governments were perfectly free to pursue their own purchasing strategies in addition to the EU one. (And it wouldn't even make sense otherwise, given most of the purchasing in Germany happens at the local level.)

    Ultimately, we'll only know in six months time who was right and who was wrong. If we have plenty of ventilators - as seems to be the case - then it will be clear the government was in the right.

    On the other hand, if the EU countries are drowning in the things, and we're seeing a lot of excess deaths due to lack of them, then we'll be able to conclude the government made a mistake.
    Please don't obstruct the usual suspects in their slavering certainty that the EU is terrible. It at least provides some light relief from the same folks' slavering certainty that the PRC deliberately unleashed Covid 19 upon the world and has covered up tens of thousands of deaths.
    Is there any actual detail on the EU plan? We know the UK government is pursuing multiple strands:

    - More from the traditional suppliers
    - More of the original designs from new manufacturers
    - Novel designs
    - From abroad
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    blairf said:

    Is the ventilator thing an example of focusing on the easily understood while ignoring the much more important but harder to figure out problem? The example I've seen is company boards spending half an hour talking about whether to refurbish the head office cycle parking, and just 3 minutes on a critical decision on investing in project A or B.

    We like to latch onto simple easily understood decisions/problems. The ventilator capacity thing is important but not really that important. What we do with the cluster f**k heading our way in terms of jobs, productivity, wealth, financial contagion etc. are far more important. If the world trips over the loan to loan, cross-collateralised assets, alt lending stuff.... it gets really horrible.

    Hopefully it won't happen and we can carry on arguing the toss over EU ventilator schemes.

    Yup. We're worried about ventilators when the whole economy is on life support.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2020
    tyson said:

    Andy_JS said:

    tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
    Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
    We are locked in for years...in some way shape or form....

    The over 70's....if they want to stay alive stay at home....they'll never get insurance to go abroad....and they would be mad to take a trip longer than a walk around the block...

    Life has changed for the foreseeable future....maybe the next 10 years or more....

    I have this view...not from Eadric.....but from a very good source....
    You're being too pessimistic IMO.
    I wish I could tell you who told me this.....

    I can't......

    This virus is out and horrible....and kills....and it has probably only worked it's way through 2-5% of the population- and that is optimistic....

    How do you expect people who are vulnerable to be able to safely go outside when they can catch something that leads to a terrible, excruciating death a month later?

    Tell me how that one works.....
    Yes. My Dad is 73 & was out and about all the time until recently, is quite frightened by it all, and I can’t see him venturing out much for a long time. As long as he gets to see his Grandson again I don’t think he cares
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    ABZ said:

    tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
    Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
    We are locked in for years...in some way shape or form....

    The over 70's....if they want to stay alive stay at home....they'll never get insurance to go abroad....and they would be mad to take a trip longer than a walk around the block...

    Life has changed for the foreseeable future....maybe the next 10 years or more....

    I have this view...not from Eadric.....but from a very good source....
    Hmm... Does that assume no medical advances? Feels a bit negative - not sure I've read any epidemiologists or virologists who are so pessimistic...
    Pretty much....from what I've heard we could be years from a vaccine.....
    And until we get a vaccine....anti viral treatments are not great.....

    This one is a slow burner that is going to fundamentally change our way of life
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,563
    tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
    Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
    We are locked in for years...in some way shape or form....

    The over 70's....if they want to stay alive stay at home....they'll never get insurance to go abroad....and they would be mad to take a trip longer than a walk around the block...

    Life has changed for the foreseeable future....maybe the next 10 years or more....

    I have this view...not from Eadric.....but from a very good source....
    Under those circumstances I honestly believe most of the elderly I know will end up saying fuck it and go back to living their lives as they did before. The thinking being you have to die of something and a life of permanent incarceration is not one worth living measured against the risk of getting CV and dying.

    Give them the light at the end of the tunnel - 3 months, 6 months or even 9 months and they will probably stick it out. Tell them this is the new norm and they will show you what they think of that.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    tyson said:

    Andy_JS said:

    tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
    Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
    We are locked in for years...in some way shape or form....

    The over 70's....if they want to stay alive stay at home....they'll never get insurance to go abroad....and they would be mad to take a trip longer than a walk around the block...

    Life has changed for the foreseeable future....maybe the next 10 years or more....

    I have this view...not from Eadric.....but from a very good source....
    You're being too pessimistic IMO.
    I wish I could tell you who told me this.....

    I can't......

    This virus is out and horrible....and kills....and it has probably only worked it's way through 2-5% of the population- and that is optimistic....

    How do you expect people who are vulnerable to be able to safely go outside when they can catch something that leads to a terrible, excruciating death a month later?

    Tell me how that one works.....
    When you are able to quote your source come back to us. With or without the multiple elipsis for effect.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608
    Yokes said:

    I don't know if anyone saw the news from ABC in the US suggesting intelligence reports that an outbreak was going on in Wuhan reached officials desks in November.

    So how long was it going on before US Intelligence put 2 and 2 together to get 4 back then?

    So it started October?

    September?

    And when did it first leave China?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    tyson said:

    MaxPB said:
    The EU does not seem to have distinguished itself during this crisis. No doubt Tusk and Juncker would have achieved more than their replacements, or maybe not.
    They will be ready for the second wave, no doubt.....
    The second wave theory is nonsense....this pandemic is going to be this horrible invisible enemy...terrifying the shit out of, until we get a vaccine that could be years away....
    Our family story tonight of my son in laws elderly father (87) is horrific as he falls every day, his catheter leaks, he has lost a stone, and is confused. He has four carers every day and my son in law and his sister have to go and check him when he falls before an ambulance is called and even then they do not want him in hospital and he is refused admission to a care home

    And to add to the agony he does not have covid and cannot understand why his son and daughter wear protective gear when they visit him, and his daughter has only just recovered from covid type symptons

    And I agree Tyson this evil virus will not be slain without a vaccine
    There is not going to be a vaccine. So the human race, as do all species, will adapt and work around the virus. Or learn how to treat it. Or gradually become immune.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    DougSeal said:

    tyson said:

    Andy_JS said:

    tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
    Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
    We are locked in for years...in some way shape or form....

    The over 70's....if they want to stay alive stay at home....they'll never get insurance to go abroad....and they would be mad to take a trip longer than a walk around the block...

    Life has changed for the foreseeable future....maybe the next 10 years or more....

    I have this view...not from Eadric.....but from a very good source....
    You're being too pessimistic IMO.
    I wish I could tell you who told me this.....

    I can't......

    This virus is out and horrible....and kills....and it has probably only worked it's way through 2-5% of the population- and that is optimistic....

    How do you expect people who are vulnerable to be able to safely go outside when they can catch something that leads to a terrible, excruciating death a month later?

    Tell me how that one works.....
    When you are able to quote your source come back to us. With or without the multiple elipsis for effect.
    No single person is responsible for making those sort of decisions. What tyson is listing is someones opinion of what will happen.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    Anyone know if Frank Booth sought medical advice about his situation this afternoon?

    It sounded rather concerning. Hope everything is OK.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Looks like the Pope has Greta envy..

    https://twitter.com/cnn/status/1247929724304850948?s=21
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Newsnight impressively hard hitting.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
    Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
    We are locked in for years...in some way shape or form....

    The over 70's....if they want to stay alive stay at home....they'll never get insurance to go abroad....and they would be mad to take a trip longer than a walk around the block...

    Life has changed for the foreseeable future....maybe the next 10 years or more....

    I have this view...not from Eadric.....but from a very good source....
    Under those circumstances I honestly believe most of the elderly I know will end up saying fuck it and go back to living their lives as they did before. The thinking being you have to die of something and a life of permanent incarceration is not one worth living measured against the risk of getting CV and dying.

    Give them the light at the end of the tunnel - 3 months, 6 months or even 9 months and they will probably stick it out. Tell them this is the new norm and they will show you what they think of that.
    Yep.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,335

    Yokes said:

    I don't know if anyone saw the news from ABC in the US suggesting intelligence reports that an outbreak was going on in Wuhan reached officials desks in November.

    So how long was it going on before US Intelligence put 2 and 2 together to get 4 back then?

    So it started October?

    September?

    And when did it first leave China?
    I've always had a thought, with no scientific foundation, that it was spread well out of China in January/February but if you aren't looking for it you aren't going to see it
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
    Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
    We are locked in for years...in some way shape or form....

    The over 70's....if they want to stay alive stay at home....they'll never get insurance to go abroad....and they would be mad to take a trip longer than a walk around the block...

    Life has changed for the foreseeable future....maybe the next 10 years or more....

    I have this view...not from Eadric.....but from a very good source....
    Under those circumstances I honestly believe most of the elderly I know will end up saying fuck it and go back to living their lives as they did before. The thinking being you have to die of something and a life of permanent incarceration is not one worth living measured against the risk of getting CV and dying.

    Give them the light at the end of the tunnel - 3 months, 6 months or even 9 months and they will probably stick it out. Tell them this is the new norm and they will show you what they think of that.
    Exactly. The world will accept the risk. People will not accept being locked in for that length of time whatever their risk.
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441
    DougSeal said:

    tyson said:

    MaxPB said:
    The EU does not seem to have distinguished itself during this crisis. No doubt Tusk and Juncker would have achieved more than their replacements, or maybe not.
    They will be ready for the second wave, no doubt.....
    The second wave theory is nonsense....this pandemic is going to be this horrible invisible enemy...terrifying the shit out of, until we get a vaccine that could be years away....
    Our family story tonight of my son in laws elderly father (87) is horrific as he falls every day, his catheter leaks, he has lost a stone, and is confused. He has four carers every day and my son in law and his sister have to go and check him when he falls before an ambulance is called and even then they do not want him in hospital and he is refused admission to a care home

    And to add to the agony he does not have covid and cannot understand why his son and daughter wear protective gear when they visit him, and his daughter has only just recovered from covid type symptons

    And I agree Tyson this evil virus will not be slain without a vaccine
    There is not going to be a vaccine. So the human race, as do all species, will adapt and work around the virus. Or learn how to treat it. Or gradually become immune.
    That's a terribly confident assertion around vaccines. What's the basis of that statement?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    tyson said:

    Andy_JS said:

    tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
    Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
    We are locked in for years...in some way shape or form....

    The over 70's....if they want to stay alive stay at home....they'll never get insurance to go abroad....and they would be mad to take a trip longer than a walk around the block...

    Life has changed for the foreseeable future....maybe the next 10 years or more....

    I have this view...not from Eadric.....but from a very good source....
    You're being too pessimistic IMO.
    I wish I could tell you who told me this.....

    I can't......

    This virus is out and horrible....and kills....and it has probably only worked it's way through 2-5% of the population- and that is optimistic....

    How do you expect people who are vulnerable to be able to safely go outside when they can catch something that leads to a terrible, excruciating death a month later?

    Tell me how that one works.....
    5% of population?

    No idea who your top source is, but that sounds wrong to me.

  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117

    tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
    Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
    We are locked in for years...in some way shape or form....

    The over 70's....if they want to stay alive stay at home....they'll never get insurance to go abroad....and they would be mad to take a trip longer than a walk around the block...

    Life has changed for the foreseeable future....maybe the next 10 years or more....

    I have this view...not from Eadric.....but from a very good source....
    Under those circumstances I honestly believe most of the elderly I know will end up saying fuck it and go back to living their lives as they did before. The thinking being you have to die of something and a life of permanent incarceration is not one worth living measured against the risk of getting CV and dying.

    Give them the light at the end of the tunnel - 3 months, 6 months or even 9 months and they will probably stick it out. Tell them this is the new norm and they will show you what they think of that.
    You cannot give the message out I have just given to the population...

    People knew the PM was struggling....and they couldn't let that be known until they had to...

    It will be drips and drabs...we are easing off bit, and this will happen and that will happen..and then we need to tighten a bit, and then....

    But...the old and vulnerable...you need to take care of yourselves....and stay in doors

    We are possibly between 2-5% of this virus slowly working it's way through the population....




  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    rcs1000 said:



    The question is not "will we see another wave of CV-19 cases?", but "how rapidly will CV-19 cases grow once restrictions are eased?"

    And that's why restrictions are going to be gradually removed, perhaps with different rules for different regions. The goal is not to have R of 0.1 (which would be amazing), but to have it in the 0.8 to 1.5 range. In other words, to ensure that instead of each infection turning into 3+ infections, to make sure than it's 1 or 1 and a bit.

    If the second "wave" sees doubling of cases every 15 days, rather than every 3 days, then it can be managed rather better. It moves to being something chronic that we deal with, while treatment is improved and (hopefully) a vaccine created.

    As a classically educated overweight man in his late 50s, I am frankly scared if I contract this virus it won't end well for me.

    In London I don't see how social distancing works once the restrictions are eased - it's not really effective now. The Underground will be as crowded as ever once businesses are allowed to re-open and as I've said before it will be those who will have no option but to go back to work who will be at the greatest risk.
    Well, I think that's easy.

    Firstly, you're not allowed to travel on public transport without face covering.

    Secondly, you have hand sanitisers stations everywhere.

    Thirdly, you encourage working from home

    Fourthly, you don't let people into tube stations (or onto buses) when they're near full

    Fifthly, you limit the number of people allowed in stores and bars and restaraunts,

    Remember, when this started you'd pass the virus onto 3 people on average. The goal is to minimise the chance that someone has it passes it on to more than one. These measures would dramatically reduce the number of people you're likely to pass the virus on to.
    But how many of these measures are actually practical? You can’t just shut tube stations when they get a bit busy, you’ll just get huge crowds outside the station which will spread the virus there instead.

    And how many restaurants, bars are economically viable if they can only be 25% occupied at once?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    ABZ said:

    DougSeal said:

    tyson said:

    MaxPB said:
    The EU does not seem to have distinguished itself during this crisis. No doubt Tusk and Juncker would have achieved more than their replacements, or maybe not.
    They will be ready for the second wave, no doubt.....
    The second wave theory is nonsense....this pandemic is going to be this horrible invisible enemy...terrifying the shit out of, until we get a vaccine that could be years away....
    Our family story tonight of my son in laws elderly father (87) is horrific as he falls every day, his catheter leaks, he has lost a stone, and is confused. He has four carers every day and my son in law and his sister have to go and check him when he falls before an ambulance is called and even then they do not want him in hospital and he is refused admission to a care home

    And to add to the agony he does not have covid and cannot understand why his son and daughter wear protective gear when they visit him, and his daughter has only just recovered from covid type symptons

    And I agree Tyson this evil virus will not be slain without a vaccine
    There is not going to be a vaccine. So the human race, as do all species, will adapt and work around the virus. Or learn how to treat it. Or gradually become immune.
    That's a terribly confident assertion around vaccines. What's the basis of that statement?
    It is more a working assumption. Better treatments are very likely. Vaccines less so.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    edited April 2020
    The recent modelling in the East Midlands has reduced by 50% the number needing ventilation. In Leicester we are forecasting peaking at about 150 in ICU (usual capacity around 50) now. We should be able to manage that.

    There is some controversy over the merits of intubated ventilation vs CPAP and high flow nasal oxygen. On the one hand the former is more invasive, and more personnel intensive, on the other hand the latter can exceed the oxygen supply bandwidth of the hospital (or particular wards) and aerosolises the area around the patient with the Coronavirus.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908
    kyf_100 said:

    blairf said:

    Is the ventilator thing an example of focusing on the easily understood while ignoring the much more important but harder to figure out problem? The example I've seen is company boards spending half an hour talking about whether to refurbish the head office cycle parking, and just 3 minutes on a critical decision on investing in project A or B.

    We like to latch onto simple easily understood decisions/problems. The ventilator capacity thing is important but not really that important. What we do with the cluster f**k heading our way in terms of jobs, productivity, wealth, financial contagion etc. are far more important. If the world trips over the loan to loan, cross-collateralised assets, alt lending stuff.... it gets really horrible.

    Hopefully it won't happen and we can carry on arguing the toss over EU ventilator schemes.

    Yup. We're worried about ventilators when the whole economy is on life support.
    Well if you want to get extra pessimistic then you really ought to consider the potential for fallout from the pandemic like coups, revolutions, and wars. We are still in the very early stages of dealing with this problem.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020
    Foxy said:

    The recent modelling in the East Midlands has reduced by 50% the number needing ventilation by 50%. In Leicester we are forecasting peaking at about 150 in ICU (usual capacity around 50) now. We should be able to manage that.

    There is some controversy over the merits of intubated ventilation vs CPAP and high flow nasal oxygen. On the one hand the former is more invasive, and more personnel intensive, on the other hand the latter can exceed the oxygen supply bandwidth of the hospital (or particular wards) and aerosolises the area around the patient with the Coronavirus.

    I think the Guardian report the government think they now need 18,000 ventilators (down from what about 30,000 they initially talked about) and are at about 12,000 by next week.

    Smith knock-offs and Dyson models are suppose to be ramping up production shortly.

    Could still be short, but Vallance the other day seemed again to be much more confident in terms of capacity, talking instead about some hospitals hitting max capacity, but spare elsewhere.

    I believe the Excel centre is where in a real emergency they will fly people to.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Wonder how many people are paying income tax at the moment.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Lots of very confident rampant speculation on here tonight, drama queenery of the highest order.

  • ABZABZ Posts: 441
    Foxy said:

    The recent modelling in the East Midlands has reduced by 50% the number needing ventilation. In Leicester we are forecasting peaking at about 150 in ICU (usual capacity around 50) now. We should be able to manage that.

    There is some controversy over the merits of intubated ventilation vs CPAP and high flow nasal oxygen. On the one hand the former is more invasive, and more personnel intensive, on the other hand the latter can exceed the oxygen supply bandwidth of the hospital (or particular wards) and aerosolises the area around the patient with the Coronavirus.

    Very interesting! Is that because there will be fewer patients, or that ventilators are just not that helpful?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    DougSeal said:

    ABZ said:

    DougSeal said:

    tyson said:

    MaxPB said:
    The EU does not seem to have distinguished itself during this crisis. No doubt Tusk and Juncker would have achieved more than their replacements, or maybe not.
    They will be ready for the second wave, no doubt.....
    The second wave theory is nonsense....this pandemic is going to be this horrible invisible enemy...terrifying the shit out of, until we get a vaccine that could be years away....
    Our family story tonight of my son in laws elderly father (87) is horrific as he falls every day, his catheter leaks, he has lost a stone, and is confused. He has four carers every day and my son in law and his sister have to go and check him when he falls before an ambulance is called and even then they do not want him in hospital and he is refused admission to a care home

    And to add to the agony he does not have covid and cannot understand why his son and daughter wear protective gear when they visit him, and his daughter has only just recovered from covid type symptons

    And I agree Tyson this evil virus will not be slain without a vaccine
    There is not going to be a vaccine. So the human race, as do all species, will adapt and work around the virus. Or learn how to treat it. Or gradually become immune.
    That's a terribly confident assertion around vaccines. What's the basis of that statement?
    It is more a working assumption. Better treatments are very likely. Vaccines less so.
    In other words you have no evidence whatsoever.

    Good to clear that up!
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