We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
We are locked in for years...in some way shape or form....
The over 70's....if they want to stay alive stay at home....they'll never get insurance to go abroad....and they would be mad to take a trip longer than a walk around the block...
Life has changed for the foreseeable future....maybe the next 10 years or more....
I have this view...not from Eadric.....but from a very good source....
You're being too pessimistic IMO.
I wish I could tell you who told me this.....
I can't......
This virus is out and horrible....and kills....and it has probably only worked it's way through 2-5% of the population- and that is optimistic....
How do you expect people who are vulnerable to be able to safely go outside when they can catch something that leads to a terrible, excruciating death a month later?
Tell me how that one works.....
Tyson, friend whom I don't know personally, I think you're very upset and should take a break and think about something else. No matter who your source, they can't be sure about future treatments and vaccines simply because nobody is sure about anything. And this virus doesn't kill everyone even at the moment, let alone when we have worked out optimal treatments.
Try not to despair. It's still the early chapters of this story.
The EU does not seem to have distinguished itself during this crisis. No doubt Tusk and Juncker would have achieved more than their replacements, or maybe not.
They will be ready for the second wave, no doubt.....
The second wave theory is nonsense....this pandemic is going to be this horrible invisible enemy...terrifying the shit out of, until we get a vaccine that could be years away....
If Eadric turns up tonight he’s going to seem almost sane.
I don't know if anyone saw the news from ABC in the US suggesting intelligence reports that an outbreak was going on in Wuhan reached officials desks in November.
So how long was it going on before US Intelligence put 2 and 2 together to get 4 back then?
So it started October?
September?
And when did it first leave China?
I don't buy it. If it was widespread before Feb then the amount presenting with respiratory failure would have been obvious.
The EU does not seem to have distinguished itself during this crisis. No doubt Tusk and Juncker would have achieved more than their replacements, or maybe not.
They will be ready for the second wave, no doubt.....
The second wave theory is nonsense....this pandemic is going to be this horrible invisible enemy...terrifying the shit out of, until we get a vaccine that could be years away....
Our family story tonight of my son in laws elderly father (87) is horrific as he falls every day, his catheter leaks, he has lost a stone, and is confused. He has four carers every day and my son in law and his sister have to go and check him when he falls before an ambulance is called and even then they do not want him in hospital and he is refused admission to a care home
And to add to the agony he does not have covid and cannot understand why his son and daughter wear protective gear when they visit him, and his daughter has only just recovered from covid type symptons
And I agree Tyson this evil virus will not be slain without a vaccine
There is not going to be a vaccine. So the human race, as do all species, will adapt and work around the virus. Or learn how to treat it. Or gradually become immune.
That's a terribly confident assertion around vaccines. What's the basis of that statement?
It is contrary to many experts in the field who do seem hopeful one will be found in the next 12 months or so
The EU does not seem to have distinguished itself during this crisis. No doubt Tusk and Juncker would have achieved more than their replacements, or maybe not.
They will be ready for the second wave, no doubt.....
The second wave theory is nonsense....this pandemic is going to be this horrible invisible enemy...terrifying the shit out of, until we get a vaccine that could be years away....
Our family story tonight of my son in laws elderly father (87) is horrific as he falls every day, his catheter leaks, he has lost a stone, and is confused. He has four carers every day and my son in law and his sister have to go and check him when he falls before an ambulance is called and even then they do not want him in hospital and he is refused admission to a care home
And to add to the agony he does not have covid and cannot understand why his son and daughter wear protective gear when they visit him, and his daughter has only just recovered from covid type symptons
And I agree Tyson this evil virus will not be slain without a vaccine
There is not going to be a vaccine. So the human race, as do all species, will adapt and work around the virus. Or learn how to treat it. Or gradually become immune.
That's a terribly confident assertion around vaccines. What's the basis of that statement?
It is more a working assumption. Better treatments are very likely. Vaccines less so.
I think both are likely to be honest. Timeframe is hard to assess, but the vaccine work has been incredibly rapid and does have strong foundations to build upon. For the better treatment, it may take more clinical trials than the first few to get an answer, but there will be helpful therapies I think.
The recent modelling in the East Midlands has reduced by 50% the number needing ventilation. In Leicester we are forecasting peaking at about 150 in ICU (usual capacity around 50) now. We should be able to manage that.
There is some controversy over the merits of intubated ventilation vs CPAP and high flow nasal oxygen. On the one hand the former is more invasive, and more personnel intensive, on the other hand the latter can exceed the oxygen supply bandwidth of the hospital (or particular wards) and aerosolises the area around the patient with the Coronavirus.
East Mids news said tonight that Nightingale Birmingham would be used for overflow from Derby (as well as W Mids). No mention of overflow from Notts and Leics?
We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
We are locked in for years...in some way shape or form....
The over 70's....if they want to stay alive stay at home....they'll never get insurance to go abroad....and they would be mad to take a trip longer than a walk around the block...
Life has changed for the foreseeable future....maybe the next 10 years or more....
I have this view...not from Eadric.....but from a very good source....
You're being too pessimistic IMO.
I wish I could tell you who told me this.....
I can't......
This virus is out and horrible....and kills....and it has probably only worked it's way through 2-5% of the population- and that is optimistic....
How do you expect people who are vulnerable to be able to safely go outside when they can catch something that leads to a terrible, excruciating death a month later?
Tell me how that one works.....
5% of population?
No idea who your top source is, but that sounds wrong to me.
The top figure was the high end...and a kind of optimistic guesstimate....the view was that this is going to slowly work it's way through the population over a number of years until we get a vaccine....
The reality is that this is a virus that probably kills about 10% plus of people with chronic symptoms and people aged over 75- and if it doesn't kill them- it causes them to be seriously unwell, requiring hospitalisation....
I don't know if anyone saw the news from ABC in the US suggesting intelligence reports that an outbreak was going on in Wuhan reached officials desks in November.
So how long was it going on before US Intelligence put 2 and 2 together to get 4 back then?
So it started October?
September?
And when did it first leave China?
The report was apparently from the end of November. Remember China first acknowledged it at the end of December with several dozens cases of pneumonia, and it takes a while for symptoms to develop.
Can anybody point me to a place online I can buy a thermometer, that doesn't have 3 reviews from a brand nobody has every heard of?
The £9.98 yinuoday one I got from Amazon seems to work fine. Although my temperature has only been normal so far, so I can’t actually prove it works. There are about 25 reviews.
Can anybody point me to a place online I can buy a thermometer, that doesn't have 3 reviews from a brand nobody has every heard of?
The £9.98 yinuoday one I got from Amazon seems to work fine. Although my temperature has only been normal so far, so I can’t actually prove it works. There are about 25 reviews.
Says delivery 28th April....I need one by the end of this week.
Wonder how many people are paying income tax at the moment.
Everyone being paid a salary on PAYE.
And how many of those are left?
Even with unemployment at 10% that would still be tens of millions on PAYE.
Only 10%? And excluding the public sector?
I'm not sure what you are trying to say. Do you think there are fewer than 10 million people left on PAYE? Care to calculate what unemployment rate that would correspond to? And as for private vs. public, that doesn't mater as both are on PAYE.
Can anybody point me to a place online I can buy a thermometer, that doesn't have 3 reviews from a brand nobody has every heard of?
The £9.98 yinuoday one I got from Amazon seems to work fine. Although my temperature has only been normal so far, so I can’t actually prove it works. There are about 25 reviews.
Ebay and Amazon have effective ones for under £10. We use them twice a day to check everything is still OK.
Kansas Republican leaders on Wednesday revoked Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly’s order limiting religious gatherings to 10 people, paving the way for churches to meet on Easter Sunday – a scenario health officials fear will further spread the deadly coronavirus across the state.
Wonder how many people are paying income tax at the moment.
I am and a little more following our state pension increase this week
Hardly a net contributor to the state in that case. If companies are making a profit, companies are not paying salaries and people are not spending on VATable goods - who is paying the bills right now?
Kansas Republican leaders on Wednesday revoked Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly’s order limiting religious gatherings to 10 people, paving the way for churches to meet on Easter Sunday – a scenario health officials fear will further spread the deadly coronavirus across the state.
Is the ventilator thing an example of focusing on the easily understood while ignoring the much more important but harder to figure out problem? The example I've seen is company boards spending half an hour talking about whether to refurbish the head office cycle parking, and just 3 minutes on a critical decision on investing in project A or B.
Parkinson's law of triviality is C. Northcote Parkinson's 1957 argument that members of an organization give disproportionate weight to trivial issues.[1] Parkinson provides the example of a fictional committee whose job was to approve the plans for a nuclear power plant spending the majority of its time on discussions about relatively minor but easy-to-grasp issues, such as what materials to use for the staff bike shed, while neglecting the proposed design of the plant itself, which is far more important and a far more difficult and complex task.
The law has been applied to software development and other activities.[2] The terms bicycle-shed effect, bike-shed effect, and bike-shedding were coined as metaphors to illuminate the law of triviality; it was popularised in the Berkeley Software Distribution community by the Danish software developer Poul-Henning Kamp in 1999[3] and has spread from there to the whole software industry.
The concept was first presented as a corollary of his broader "Parkinson's law" spoof of management. He dramatizes this "law of triviality" with the example of a committee's deliberations on an atomic reactor, contrasting it to deliberations on a bicycle shed. As he put it: "The time spent on any item of the agenda will be in inverse proportion to the sum [of money] involved." A reactor is so vastly expensive and complicated that an average person cannot understand it, so one assumes that those who work on it understand it. On the other hand, everyone can visualize a cheap, simple bicycle shed, so planning one can result in endless discussions because everyone involved wants to add a touch and show personal contribution.[4]
Problems arise after a suggestion of building something new for the community, like a bike shed, causes everyone involved to argue about the details. This is a metaphor indicating that it is not necessary to argue about every little feature based simply on the knowledge to do so. Some people have commented that the amount of noise generated by a change is inversely proportional to the complexity of the change.[3]
The recent modelling in the East Midlands has reduced by 50% the number needing ventilation. In Leicester we are forecasting peaking at about 150 in ICU (usual capacity around 50) now. We should be able to manage that.
There is some controversy over the merits of intubated ventilation vs CPAP and high flow nasal oxygen. On the one hand the former is more invasive, and more personnel intensive, on the other hand the latter can exceed the oxygen supply bandwidth of the hospital (or particular wards) and aerosolises the area around the patient with the Coronavirus.
Very interesting! Is that because there will be fewer patients, or that ventilators are just not that helpful?
Fewer patients mostly. The spread is very patchy geographically, and we are running at about half the English average.
Even so, it will be a close run thing. The limiting factors are staff and oxygen supply at the moment. Also running out of long-sleeved PPE, and none expected.
The EU does not seem to have distinguished itself during this crisis. No doubt Tusk and Juncker would have achieved more than their replacements, or maybe not.
They will be ready for the second wave, no doubt.....
The second wave theory is nonsense....this pandemic is going to be this horrible invisible enemy...terrifying the shit out of, until we get a vaccine that could be years away....
If Eadric turns up tonight he’s going to seem almost sane.
We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
We are locked in for years...in some way shape or form....
The over 70's....if they want to stay alive stay at home....they'll never get insurance to go abroad....and they would be mad to take a trip longer than a walk around the block...
Life has changed for the foreseeable future....maybe the next 10 years or more....
I have this view...not from Eadric.....but from a very good source....
You're being too pessimistic IMO.
I wish I could tell you who told me this.....
I can't......
This virus is out and horrible....and kills....and it has probably only worked it's way through 2-5% of the population- and that is optimistic....
How do you expect people who are vulnerable to be able to safely go outside when they can catch something that leads to a terrible, excruciating death a month later?
Tell me how that one works.....
Tyson, friend whom I don't know personally, I think you're very upset and should take a break and think about something else. No matter who your source, they can't be sure about future treatments and vaccines simply because nobody is sure about anything. And this virus doesn't kill everyone even at the moment, let alone when we have worked out optimal treatments.
Try not to despair. It's still the early chapters of this story.
--AS
I don't know what I have said that should come as any kind of surprise...
A vaccine could be years away...fingers crossed we get one in a year or a year and a half...but if it's longer we have a terrible virus that can kill you if you pop to the shops to buy the milk....
We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
We are locked in for years...in some way shape or form....
The over 70's....if they want to stay alive stay at home....they'll never get insurance to go abroad....and they would be mad to take a trip longer than a walk around the block...
Life has changed for the foreseeable future....maybe the next 10 years or more....
I have this view...not from Eadric.....but from a very good source....
You're being too pessimistic IMO.
I wish I could tell you who told me this.....
I can't......
This virus is out and horrible....and kills....and it has probably only worked it's way through 2-5% of the population- and that is optimistic....
How do you expect people who are vulnerable to be able to safely go outside when they can catch something that leads to a terrible, excruciating death a month later?
Tell me how that one works.....
5% of population?
No idea who your top source is, but that sounds wrong to me.
The top figure was the high end...and a kind of optimistic guesstimate....the view was that this is going to slowly work it's way through the population over a number of years until we get a vaccine....
The reality is that this is a virus that probably kills about 10% plus of people with chronic symptoms and people aged over 75- and if it doesn't kill them- it causes them to be seriously unwell, requiring hospitalisation....
I just don't think we know this. 50% of us could have had it without noticing. We need more data.
When I next have anybody round to do work on Chez Urquhart and they tell me it will take x weeks, I think I might have to show them that video....now chop chop, I only want a bit of plastering or a wall building, not a 4000 bed hospital.
Wonder how many people are paying income tax at the moment.
I am and a little more following our state pension increase this week
Hardly a net contributor to the state in that case. If companies are making a profit, companies are not paying salaries and people are not spending on VATable goods - who is paying the bills right now?
You are correct but I have paid huge sums of tax into the system over my working days
But as far as your last paaragraph is concerned it is an economic armageddon
I don't know if anyone saw the news from ABC in the US suggesting intelligence reports that an outbreak was going on in Wuhan reached officials desks in November.
So how long was it going on before US Intelligence put 2 and 2 together to get 4 back then?
So it started October?
September?
And when did it first leave China?
I've always had a thought, with no scientific foundation, that it was spread well out of China in January/February but if you aren't looking for it you aren't going to see it
But the UK was looking for it. They did thousands of random tests then, practically all were negative.
Kansas Republican leaders on Wednesday revoked Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly’s order limiting religious gatherings to 10 people, paving the way for churches to meet on Easter Sunday – a scenario health officials fear will further spread the deadly coronavirus across the state.
God's will etc etc...
Given that there are multiple examples of churches, choirs, weddings and the like resulting in dozens of infections and multiple deaths, it's utterly irresponsible to sanction such meetings.
Is the ventilator thing an example of focusing on the easily understood while ignoring the much more important but harder to figure out problem? The example I've seen is company boards spending half an hour talking about whether to refurbish the head office cycle parking, and just 3 minutes on a critical decision on investing in project A or B.
Parkinson's law of triviality is C. Northcote Parkinson's 1957 argument that members of an organization give disproportionate weight to trivial issues.[1] Parkinson provides the example of a fictional committee whose job was to approve the plans for a nuclear power plant spending the majority of its time on discussions about relatively minor but easy-to-grasp issues, such as what materials to use for the staff bike shed, while neglecting the proposed design of the plant itself, which is far more important and a far more difficult and complex task.
The law has been applied to software development and other activities.[2] The terms bicycle-shed effect, bike-shed effect, and bike-shedding were coined as metaphors to illuminate the law of triviality; it was popularised in the Berkeley Software Distribution community by the Danish software developer Poul-Henning Kamp in 1999[3] and has spread from there to the whole software industry.
The concept was first presented as a corollary of his broader "Parkinson's law" spoof of management. He dramatizes this "law of triviality" with the example of a committee's deliberations on an atomic reactor, contrasting it to deliberations on a bicycle shed. As he put it: "The time spent on any item of the agenda will be in inverse proportion to the sum [of money] involved." A reactor is so vastly expensive and complicated that an average person cannot understand it, so one assumes that those who work on it understand it. On the other hand, everyone can visualize a cheap, simple bicycle shed, so planning one can result in endless discussions because everyone involved wants to add a touch and show personal contribution.[4]
Problems arise after a suggestion of building something new for the community, like a bike shed, causes everyone involved to argue about the details. This is a metaphor indicating that it is not necessary to argue about every little feature based simply on the knowledge to do so. Some people have commented that the amount of noise generated by a change is inversely proportional to the complexity of the change.[3]
But how many of these measures are actually practical? You can’t just shut tube stations when they get a bit busy, you’ll just get huge crowds outside the station which will spread the virus there instead.
And how many restaurants, bars are economically viable if they can only be 25% occupied at once?
You may need to find another way to ration tube use (if crowded trains turns out to be a serious vector, not sure we know that), eg you have to book online the day before, if oversubscribed it's a lottery, etc.
A lot of restaurants and bars are going out of business, I don't think there's any way around that. Although their rents should also drop...
Wonder how many people are paying income tax at the moment.
I am and a little more following our state pension increase this week
Hardly a net contributor to the state in that case. If companies are making a profit, companies are not paying salaries and people are not spending on VATable goods - who is paying the bills right now?
You are correct but I have paid huge sums of tax into the system over my working days
But as far as your last paaragraph is concerned it is an economic armageddon
When you contributed you paid other people’s pensions, who is paying yours today?
There were 30M income tax payers in the UK. Around 10M are now furloughed. 16% of workforce are public sector.
The recent modelling in the East Midlands has reduced by 50% the number needing ventilation. In Leicester we are forecasting peaking at about 150 in ICU (usual capacity around 50) now. We should be able to manage that.
There is some controversy over the merits of intubated ventilation vs CPAP and high flow nasal oxygen. On the one hand the former is more invasive, and more personnel intensive, on the other hand the latter can exceed the oxygen supply bandwidth of the hospital (or particular wards) and aerosolises the area around the patient with the Coronavirus.
Very interesting! Is that because there will be fewer patients, or that ventilators are just not that helpful?
Fewer patients mostly. The spread is very patchy geographically, and we are running at about half the English average.
Even so, it will be a close run thing. The limiting factors are staff and oxygen supply at the moment. Also running out of long-sleeved PPE, and none expected.
It will be really interesting to look to investigate the factors behind just large differences in transmission. I got an update from a friend who works on the CV front line of a major urban hospital this evening, and just like last week, still no tsunami. They are ready, they were told 3 weeks ago, get ready its coming next week, and still hasn't.
We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
We are locked in for years...in some way shape or form....
The over 70's....if they want to stay alive stay at home....they'll never get insurance to go abroad....and they would be mad to take a trip longer than a walk around the block...
Life has changed for the foreseeable future....maybe the next 10 years or more....
I have this view...not from Eadric.....but from a very good source....
You're being too pessimistic IMO.
I wish I could tell you who told me this.....
I can't......
This virus is out and horrible....and kills....and it has probably only worked it's way through 2-5% of the population- and that is optimistic....
How do you expect people who are vulnerable to be able to safely go outside when they can catch something that leads to a terrible, excruciating death a month later?
Tell me how that one works.....
5% of population?
No idea who your top source is, but that sounds wrong to me.
The top figure was the high end...and a kind of optimistic guesstimate....the view was that this is going to slowly work it's way through the population over a number of years until we get a vaccine....
The reality is that this is a virus that probably kills about 10% plus of people with chronic symptoms and people aged over 75- and if it doesn't kill them- it causes them to be seriously unwell, requiring hospitalisation....
@tyson just so you know we are very happy to be your venting outlet but I can't believe it's all doing you any good.
Tomorrow get out for your permitted exercise, look around you at nature and the wonders of the world and try not to let your imagination run away too much.
Wonder how many people are paying income tax at the moment.
I am and a little more following our state pension increase this week
Hardly a net contributor to the state in that case. If companies are making a profit, companies are not paying salaries and people are not spending on VATable goods - who is paying the bills right now?
You are correct but I have paid huge sums of tax into the system over my working days
But as far as your last paaragraph is concerned it is an economic armageddon
When you contributed you paid other people’s pensions, who is paying yours today?
There were 30M income tax payers in the UK. Around 10M are now furloughed. 16% of workforce are public sector.
Who is paying the bills today?
Tomorrow is paying for it, as usual? What's your point though... do you think the government should be spending less?
We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
We are locked in for years...in some way shape or form....
The over 70's....if they want to stay alive stay at home....they'll never get insurance to go abroad....and they would be mad to take a trip longer than a walk around the block...
Life has changed for the foreseeable future....maybe the next 10 years or more....
I have this view...not from Eadric.....but from a very good source....
You're being too pessimistic IMO.
I wish I could tell you who told me this.....
I can't......
This virus is out and horrible....and kills....and it has probably only worked it's way through 2-5% of the population- and that is optimistic....
How do you expect people who are vulnerable to be able to safely go outside when they can catch something that leads to a terrible, excruciating death a month later?
Tell me how that one works.....
5% of population?
No idea who your top source is, but that sounds wrong to me.
The top figure was the high end...and a kind of optimistic guesstimate....the view was that this is going to slowly work it's way through the population over a number of years until we get a vaccine....
The reality is that this is a virus that probably kills about 10% plus of people with chronic symptoms and people aged over 75- and if it doesn't kill them- it causes them to be seriously unwell, requiring hospitalisation....
I just don't think we know this. 50% of us could have had it without noticing. We need more data.
That is what I was told....until we get a vaccine this is a war that is going to fundamentally change the way we live and our economy....
Can anybody point me to a place online I can buy a thermometer, that doesn't have 3 reviews from a brand nobody has every heard of?
Just buy one. Thermometers are known technolgy and even if miscalibrated, you are probably more interested in changes than absolute values. Or get two and compare them.
If you go down the buy two route, then buy from two different manufacturers.
Wonder how many people are paying income tax at the moment.
I am and a little more following our state pension increase this week
Hardly a net contributor to the state in that case. If companies are making a profit, companies are not paying salaries and people are not spending on VATable goods - who is paying the bills right now?
You are correct but I have paid huge sums of tax into the system over my working days
But as far as your last paaragraph is concerned it is an economic armageddon
When you contributed you paid other people’s pensions, who is paying yours today?
There were 30M income tax payers in the UK. Around 10M are now furloughed. 16% of workforce are public sector.
Wonder how many people are paying income tax at the moment.
I am and a little more following our state pension increase this week
Hardly a net contributor to the state in that case. If companies are making a profit, companies are not paying salaries and people are not spending on VATable goods - who is paying the bills right now?
You are correct but I have paid huge sums of tax into the system over my working days
But as far as your last paaragraph is concerned it is an economic armageddon
When you contributed you paid other people’s pensions, who is paying yours today?
There were 30M income tax payers in the UK. Around 10M are now furloughed. 16% of workforce are public sector.
Who is paying the bills today?
Tomorrow is paying for it, as usual?
Boy, I wouldn't want to be those guys, they're screwed!
Can anybody point me to a place online I can buy a thermometer, that doesn't have 3 reviews from a brand nobody has every heard of?
Just buy one. Thermometers are known technolgy and even if miscalibrated, you are probably more interested in changes than absolute values. Or get two and compare them.
If you go down the buy two route, then buy from two different manufacturers.
I can't even find one that will deliver this week.
The recent modelling in the East Midlands has reduced by 50% the number needing ventilation. In Leicester we are forecasting peaking at about 150 in ICU (usual capacity around 50) now. We should be able to manage that.
There is some controversy over the merits of intubated ventilation vs CPAP and high flow nasal oxygen. On the one hand the former is more invasive, and more personnel intensive, on the other hand the latter can exceed the oxygen supply bandwidth of the hospital (or particular wards) and aerosolises the area around the patient with the Coronavirus.
East Mids news said tonight that Nightingale Birmingham would be used for overflow from Derby (as well as W Mids). No mention of overflow from Notts and Leics?
Derbyshire has 112 deaths compared to 62 in Leics and 67 in Notts, so seems to have it worse. I am not sure why.
Is the ventilator thing an example of focusing on the easily understood while ignoring the much more important but harder to figure out problem? The example I've seen is company boards spending half an hour talking about whether to refurbish the head office cycle parking, and just 3 minutes on a critical decision on investing in project A or B.
Parkinson's law of triviality is C. Northcote Parkinson's 1957 argument that members of an organization give disproportionate weight to trivial issues.[1] Parkinson provides the example of a fictional committee whose job was to approve the plans for a nuclear power plant spending the majority of its time on discussions about relatively minor but easy-to-grasp issues, such as what materials to use for the staff bike shed, while neglecting the proposed design of the plant itself, which is far more important and a far more difficult and complex task.
The law has been applied to software development and other activities.[2] The terms bicycle-shed effect, bike-shed effect, and bike-shedding were coined as metaphors to illuminate the law of triviality; it was popularised in the Berkeley Software Distribution community by the Danish software developer Poul-Henning Kamp in 1999[3] and has spread from there to the whole software industry.
The concept was first presented as a corollary of his broader "Parkinson's law" spoof of management. He dramatizes this "law of triviality" with the example of a committee's deliberations on an atomic reactor, contrasting it to deliberations on a bicycle shed. As he put it: "The time spent on any item of the agenda will be in inverse proportion to the sum [of money] involved." A reactor is so vastly expensive and complicated that an average person cannot understand it, so one assumes that those who work on it understand it. On the other hand, everyone can visualize a cheap, simple bicycle shed, so planning one can result in endless discussions because everyone involved wants to add a touch and show personal contribution.[4]
Problems arise after a suggestion of building something new for the community, like a bike shed, causes everyone involved to argue about the details. This is a metaphor indicating that it is not necessary to argue about every little feature based simply on the knowledge to do so. Some people have commented that the amount of noise generated by a change is inversely proportional to the complexity of the change.[3]
thank you! I didn't know the proper phrase for it. And also to the pessimistic comment about coups, wars, breakdown etc. There is a non-trivial chance of that. There are worst case discussions that are truly terrifying. The huge leverage in our economy all works when things go up, when they break not so much.
Off the top of my head we have car finance ($1 Trillion in US alone), commercial real estate collateralisation (several trillion), alt banking loan to loan stuff in PE world (crap knows), residential real estate under water valuations (more than all the above). When you turn off income and render assets unvaluable things can get very bad very quickly.
on the upside my bulbs and seedlings are looking good. :-)
Can anybody point me to a place online I can buy a thermometer, that doesn't have 3 reviews from a brand nobody has every heard of?
Just buy one. Thermometers are known technolgy and even if miscalibrated, you are probably more interested in changes than absolute values. Or get two and compare them.
If you go down the buy two route, then buy from two different manufacturers.
I can't even find one that will deliver this week.
Let's suppose you get one and it shows you have a mild temperature. What then?
Wonder how many people are paying income tax at the moment.
I am and a little more following our state pension increase this week
Hardly a net contributor to the state in that case. If companies are making a profit, companies are not paying salaries and people are not spending on VATable goods - who is paying the bills right now?
You are correct but I have paid huge sums of tax into the system over my working days
But as far as your last paaragraph is concerned it is an economic armageddon
When you contributed you paid other people’s pensions, who is paying yours today?
There were 30M income tax payers in the UK. Around 10M are now furloughed. 16% of workforce are public sector.
Who is paying the bills today?
Tomorrow is paying for it, as usual?
Boy, I wouldn't want to be those guys, they're screwed!
It was only a few years ago that we finished paying for WW2.
Wonder how many people are paying income tax at the moment.
I am and a little more following our state pension increase this week
Hardly a net contributor to the state in that case. If companies are making a profit, companies are not paying salaries and people are not spending on VATable goods - who is paying the bills right now?
You are correct but I have paid huge sums of tax into the system over my working days
But as far as your last paaragraph is concerned it is an economic armageddon
When you contributed you paid other people’s pensions, who is paying yours today?
There were 30M income tax payers in the UK. Around 10M are now furloughed. 16% of workforce are public sector.
Who is paying the bills today?
Tomorrow is paying for it, as usual? What's your point though... do you think the government should be spending less?
My point is that economic position is far, far worse than currently discussed. We talk about the extra spending, but we don’t talk about the total collapse of tax income.
Can anybody point me to a place online I can buy a thermometer, that doesn't have 3 reviews from a brand nobody has every heard of?
Just buy one. Thermometers are known technolgy and even if miscalibrated, you are probably more interested in changes than absolute values. Or get two and compare them.
If you go down the buy two route, then buy from two different manufacturers.
I can't even find one that will deliver this week.
Let's suppose you get one and it shows you have a mild temperature. What then?
Well I am currently stuck away from home self isolating, so I would have to stay away for another week.
Can anybody point me to a place online I can buy a thermometer, that doesn't have 3 reviews from a brand nobody has every heard of?
Just buy one. Thermometers are known technolgy and even if miscalibrated, you are probably more interested in changes than absolute values. Or get two and compare them.
If you go down the buy two route, then buy from two different manufacturers.
I can't even find one that will deliver this week.
Let's suppose you get one and it shows you have a mild temperature. What then?
Well I am currently stuck away from home self isolating, so I would have to stay away for another week.
Kansas Republican leaders on Wednesday revoked Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly’s order limiting religious gatherings to 10 people, paving the way for churches to meet on Easter Sunday – a scenario health officials fear will further spread the deadly coronavirus across the state.
God's will etc etc...
Given that there are multiple examples of churches, choirs, weddings and the like resulting in dozens of infections and multiple deaths, it's utterly irresponsible to sanction such meetings.
It's criminal. This is Iran-level theocracy in action. It totally negates all other measures that are preventing the spread.
All that will be rising after Easter will be very many people's temperatures.....
Wonder how many people are paying income tax at the moment.
I am and a little more following our state pension increase this week
Hardly a net contributor to the state in that case. If companies are making a profit, companies are not paying salaries and people are not spending on VATable goods - who is paying the bills right now?
You are correct but I have paid huge sums of tax into the system over my working days
But as far as your last paaragraph is concerned it is an economic armageddon
When you contributed you paid other people’s pensions, who is paying yours today?
There were 30M income tax payers in the UK. Around 10M are now furloughed. 16% of workforce are public sector.
Who is paying the bills today?
The chancellor
Cute. But try again. To create cash you either print, devalue or you borrow from someone else.
Wonder how many people are paying income tax at the moment.
I am and a little more following our state pension increase this week
Hardly a net contributor to the state in that case. If companies are making a profit, companies are not paying salaries and people are not spending on VATable goods - who is paying the bills right now?
You are correct but I have paid huge sums of tax into the system over my working days
But as far as your last paaragraph is concerned it is an economic armageddon
When you contributed you paid other people’s pensions, who is paying yours today?
There were 30M income tax payers in the UK. Around 10M are now furloughed. 16% of workforce are public sector.
Who is paying the bills today?
Tomorrow is paying for it, as usual?
Boy, I wouldn't want to be those guys, they're screwed!
It was only a few years ago that we finished paying for WW2.
That's nothing, George Osborne was Chancellor when we paid off some debts from the 1720s
Wonder how many people are paying income tax at the moment.
I am and a little more following our state pension increase this week
Hardly a net contributor to the state in that case. If companies are making a profit, companies are not paying salaries and people are not spending on VATable goods - who is paying the bills right now?
You are correct but I have paid huge sums of tax into the system over my working days
But as far as your last paaragraph is concerned it is an economic armageddon
When you contributed you paid other people’s pensions, who is paying yours today?
There were 30M income tax payers in the UK. Around 10M are now furloughed. 16% of workforce are public sector.
Who is paying the bills today?
Tomorrow is paying for it, as usual? What's your point though... do you think the government should be spending less?
My point is that economic position is far, far worse than currently discussed. We talk about the extra spending, but we don’t talk about the total collapse of tax income.
Of course there is going to be an effect on tax revenue, I don't think anyone has suggested otherwise. Currently, the focus is on helping people get through this, so it isn't all that surprising that there hasn't been much discussion on tax revenue in the next financial year.
We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
We are locked in for years...in some way shape or form....
The over 70's....if they want to stay alive stay at home....they'll never get insurance to go abroad....and they would be mad to take a trip longer than a walk around the block...
Life has changed for the foreseeable future....maybe the next 10 years or more....
I have this view...not from Eadric.....but from a very good source....
You're being too pessimistic IMO.
I wish I could tell you who told me this.....
I can't......
This virus is out and horrible....and kills....and it has probably only worked it's way through 2-5% of the population- and that is optimistic....
How do you expect people who are vulnerable to be able to safely go outside when they can catch something that leads to a terrible, excruciating death a month later?
Tell me how that one works.....
When you are able to quote your source come back to us. With or without the multiple elipsis for effect.
Well said, sir
Some absolute Duncan Smith being spouted on here tonight
The recent modelling in the East Midlands has reduced by 50% the number needing ventilation. In Leicester we are forecasting peaking at about 150 in ICU (usual capacity around 50) now. We should be able to manage that.
There is some controversy over the merits of intubated ventilation vs CPAP and high flow nasal oxygen. On the one hand the former is more invasive, and more personnel intensive, on the other hand the latter can exceed the oxygen supply bandwidth of the hospital (or particular wards) and aerosolises the area around the patient with the Coronavirus.
The recent modelling in the East Midlands has reduced by 50% the number needing ventilation. In Leicester we are forecasting peaking at about 150 in ICU (usual capacity around 50) now. We should be able to manage that.
There is some controversy over the merits of intubated ventilation vs CPAP and high flow nasal oxygen. On the one hand the former is more invasive, and more personnel intensive, on the other hand the latter can exceed the oxygen supply bandwidth of the hospital (or particular wards) and aerosolises the area around the patient with the Coronavirus.
Very interesting! Is that because there will be fewer patients, or that ventilators are just not that helpful?
Fewer patients mostly. The spread is very patchy geographically, and we are running at about half the English average.
Even so, it will be a close run thing. The limiting factors are staff and oxygen supply at the moment. Also running out of long-sleeved PPE, and none expected.
It will be really interesting to look to investigate the factors behind just large differences in transmission. I got an update from a friend who works on the CV front line of a major urban hospital this evening, and just like last week, still no tsunami. They are ready, they were told 3 weeks ago, get ready its coming next week, and still hasn't.
The regional variations are fascinating. Devon had one of the very first clusters - but now, the stats are literally 1/10th of those of the Black Country.
Wonder how many people are paying income tax at the moment.
I am and a little more following our state pension increase this week
Hardly a net contributor to the state in that case. If companies are making a profit, companies are not paying salaries and people are not spending on VATable goods - who is paying the bills right now?
You are correct but I have paid huge sums of tax into the system over my working days
But as far as your last paaragraph is concerned it is an economic armageddon
When you contributed you paid other people’s pensions, who is paying yours today?
There were 30M income tax payers in the UK. Around 10M are now furloughed. 16% of workforce are public sector.
Who is paying the bills today?
The chancellor
Cute. But try again. To create cash you either print, devalue or you borrow from someone else.
Your new concern regarding fiscal prudence is touching. I trust you never once complained about austerity.
Wonder how many people are paying income tax at the moment.
I am and a little more following our state pension increase this week
Hardly a net contributor to the state in that case. If companies are making a profit, companies are not paying salaries and people are not spending on VATable goods - who is paying the bills right now?
You are correct but I have paid huge sums of tax into the system over my working days
But as far as your last paaragraph is concerned it is an economic armageddon
When you contributed you paid other people’s pensions, who is paying yours today?
There were 30M income tax payers in the UK. Around 10M are now furloughed. 16% of workforce are public sector.
Who is paying the bills today?
Tomorrow is paying for it, as usual? What's your point though... do you think the government should be spending less?
My point is that economic position is far, far worse than currently discussed. We talk about the extra spending, but we don’t talk about the total collapse of tax income.
Of course there is going to be an effect on tax revenue, I don't think anyone has suggested otherwise. Currently, the focus is on helping people get through this, so it isn't all that surprising that there hasn't been much discussion on tax revenue in the next financial year.
It’s more than an effect, there is next to no tax revenue. It’s and Only Fools and Horses economy. No income tax, no vat, no corp tax, no fuel duty.
Wonder how many people are paying income tax at the moment.
I am and a little more following our state pension increase this week
Hardly a net contributor to the state in that case. If companies are making a profit, companies are not paying salaries and people are not spending on VATable goods - who is paying the bills right now?
You are correct but I have paid huge sums of tax into the system over my working days
But as far as your last paaragraph is concerned it is an economic armageddon
When you contributed you paid other people’s pensions, who is paying yours today?
There were 30M income tax payers in the UK. Around 10M are now furloughed. 16% of workforce are public sector.
Who is paying the bills today?
Tomorrow is paying for it, as usual? What's your point though... do you think the government should be spending less?
My point is that economic position is far, far worse than currently discussed. We talk about the extra spending, but we don’t talk about the total collapse of tax income.
Of course there is going to be an effect on tax revenue, I don't think anyone has suggested otherwise. Currently, the focus is on helping people get through this, so it isn't all that surprising that there hasn't been much discussion on tax revenue in the next financial year.
It is the perfect storm...a need for Keynesian economic stabiliser spending on meths....and a catastrophic decline in the tax intake....a replica of 2008 x10....
The only reason why the stock market is hovering where it is is because people are making money dipping in and out...the real economy must be circa 33-40% lower, and maybe more....
Wonder how many people are paying income tax at the moment.
I am and a little more following our state pension increase this week
Hardly a net contributor to the state in that case. If companies are making a profit, companies are not paying salaries and people are not spending on VATable goods - who is paying the bills right now?
You are correct but I have paid huge sums of tax into the system over my working days
But as far as your last paaragraph is concerned it is an economic armageddon
When you contributed you paid other people’s pensions, who is paying yours today?
There were 30M income tax payers in the UK. Around 10M are now furloughed. 16% of workforce are public sector.
Who is paying the bills today?
The chancellor
Cute. But try again. To create cash you either print, devalue or you borrow from someone else.
Your new concern regarding fiscal prudence is touching. I trust you never once complained about austerity.
I fear this crisis makes the last crisis look like a rounding error. I guess you were giving the government full support back in 2008 as it got us out of that mess. Your steadfast support will no doubt be a model for others to follow now.
The recent modelling in the East Midlands has reduced by 50% the number needing ventilation. In Leicester we are forecasting peaking at about 150 in ICU (usual capacity around 50) now. We should be able to manage that.
There is some controversy over the merits of intubated ventilation vs CPAP and high flow nasal oxygen. On the one hand the former is more invasive, and more personnel intensive, on the other hand the latter can exceed the oxygen supply bandwidth of the hospital (or particular wards) and aerosolises the area around the patient with the Coronavirus.
East Mids news said tonight that Nightingale Birmingham would be used for overflow from Derby (as well as W Mids). No mention of overflow from Notts and Leics?
Derbyshire has 112 deaths compared to 62 in Leics and 67 in Notts, so seems to have it worse. I am not sure why.
Maybe it's due to the fact that Derbyshire is slightly more centrally-located.
We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
We are locked in for years...in some way shape or form....
The over 70's....if they want to stay alive stay at home....they'll never get insurance to go abroad....and they would be mad to take a trip longer than a walk around the block...
Life has changed for the foreseeable future....maybe the next 10 years or more....
I have this view...not from Eadric.....but from a very good source....
Under those circumstances I honestly believe most of the elderly I know will end up saying fuck it and go back to living their lives as they did before. The thinking being you have to die of something and a life of permanent incarceration is not one worth living measured against the risk of getting CV and dying.
Give them the light at the end of the tunnel - 3 months, 6 months or even 9 months and they will probably stick it out. Tell them this is the new norm and they will show you what they think of that.
I don't know. I'm just thinking the government should be best to say, after the next month or two, 'okay, you can go out if you want, it's risky and you might catch it but it's your decision'. It passes the choice test, it would help to contribute to herd immunity and we could probably keep the overflow hospitals ready to use. Maybe if it gets to six months. A lot would probably have had enough, take that risk and the greatest of good luck to them.
In a way I'm in a decent position, I can take retirement in six months or so (although it would badly affect any pension that I get, as I still have mortgage to pay off, that is the easiest decision to take ever) so I'm probably not going to have to make that terrible choice.
The lockdown was always going to last for at least 6 weeks, not 3 weeks. The question is whether it can be relaxed at that point. Some of the data is encouraging that it may be possible to do so.
We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
We are locked in for years...in some way shape or form....
The over 70's....if they want to stay alive stay at home....they'll never get insurance to go abroad....and they would be mad to take a trip longer than a walk around the block...
Life has changed for the foreseeable future....maybe the next 10 years or more....
I have this view...not from Eadric.....but from a very good source....
Under those circumstances I honestly believe most of the elderly I know will end up saying fuck it and go back to living their lives as they did before. The thinking being you have to die of something and a life of permanent incarceration is not one worth living measured against the risk of getting CV and dying.
Give them the light at the end of the tunnel - 3 months, 6 months or even 9 months and they will probably stick it out. Tell them this is the new norm and they will show you what they think of that.
You cannot give the message out I have just given to the population...
People knew the PM was struggling....and they couldn't let that be known until they had to...
It will be drips and drabs...we are easing off bit, and this will happen and that will happen..and then we need to tighten a bit, and then....
But...the old and vulnerable...you need to take care of yourselves....and stay in doors
We are possibly between 2-5% of this virus slowly working it's way through the population....
It doesn't matter. People have a finite ability to remain incarcerated. Whatever you do or do not tell them, eventually - and much sooner than you seem to think - they will take either an educated or uneducated risk and resume their normal lives.
The EU does not seem to have distinguished itself during this crisis. No doubt Tusk and Juncker would have achieved more than their replacements, or maybe not.
They will be ready for the second wave, no doubt.....
The second wave theory is nonsense....this pandemic is going to be this horrible invisible enemy...terrifying the shit out of, until we get a vaccine that could be years away....
Our family story tonight of my son in laws elderly father (87) is horrific as he falls every day, his catheter leaks, he has lost a stone, and is confused. He has four carers every day and my son in law and his sister have to go and check him when he falls before an ambulance is called and even then they do not want him in hospital and he is refused admission to a care home
And to add to the agony he does not have covid and cannot understand why his son and daughter wear protective gear when they visit him, and his daughter has only just recovered from covid type symptons
And I agree Tyson this evil virus will not be slain without a vaccine
There is not going to be a vaccine. So the human race, as do all species, will adapt and work around the virus. Or learn how to treat it. Or gradually become immune.
That's a terribly confident assertion around vaccines. What's the basis of that statement?
It is more a working assumption. Better treatments are very likely. Vaccines less so.
In other words you have no evidence whatsoever.
Good to clear that up!
You are right I have no evidence but it is notoriously hard to prove a negative. I do have some historical evidence to show that human life goes on even in the face of far deadlier pandemics without a vaccine. Our ancestors faced far more deadly pandemics without even knowing what vaccines were. The second plague pandemic (mortality rate 80% plus) lasted from the 1340s to the 1770s in Europe, during which time (between outbreaks) Europeans managed to cook up the Renaissance, the Enlightenment, and the start of the Industrial Revolution. The 1918/19 H1N1 outbreak was followed by the Roaring 20s In our own time the far more deadly ebola virus, before a vaccine was developed, did not shut down life in Central Africa. It's ludicrous to suggest we will be locked down for a decade or more in the face of a virus that is horrible but, even so, has a very high survival rate in all age groups. Indeed, even the older people who bear the brunt of this, given the option of spending their last several years cooped up at home and taking their chances, most will likely mostly choose the latter. And the young will tolerate it even less.
There's normalcy bias, but people tonight are displaying the equally damaging exaggeration bias.
I don't know if anyone saw the news from ABC in the US suggesting intelligence reports that an outbreak was going on in Wuhan reached officials desks in November.
So how long was it going on before US Intelligence put 2 and 2 together to get 4 back then?
So it started October?
September?
And when did it first leave China?
I've always had a thought, with no scientific foundation, that it was spread well out of China in January/February but if you aren't looking for it you aren't going to see it
Earlier today, the BBC interviewed (via Skype) a British bloke living in Wuhan (he's an English teacher) who claimed he had Covid symptoms "back in late November/early December".
We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
We are locked in for years...in some way shape or form....
The over 70's....if they want to stay alive stay at home....they'll never get insurance to go abroad....and they would be mad to take a trip longer than a walk around the block...
Life has changed for the foreseeable future....maybe the next 10 years or more....
I have this view...not from Eadric.....but from a very good source....
You're being too pessimistic IMO.
I wish I could tell you who told me this.....
I can't......
This virus is out and horrible....and kills....and it has probably only worked it's way through 2-5% of the population- and that is optimistic....
How do you expect people who are vulnerable to be able to safely go outside when they can catch something that leads to a terrible, excruciating death a month later?
Tell me how that one works.....
When you are able to quote your source come back to us. With or without the multiple elipsis for effect.
His figure of 2-5% is on the low side of conventional thinking. Neil Ferguson thought 2-3% nine days ago: Asked how many people may have been infected in the UK, Prof Ferguson said it varied across the country. "(In) Central London it could be as many as 3% to 5% of the population has been infected, maybe more in individual hotspots. In the country as a whole, the UK, maybe 2% or 3%." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52087452
Wonder how many people are paying income tax at the moment.
I am and a little more following our state pension increase this week
Hardly a net contributor to the state in that case. If companies are making a profit, companies are not paying salaries and people are not spending on VATable goods - who is paying the bills right now?
You are correct but I have paid huge sums of tax into the system over my working days
But as far as your last paaragraph is concerned it is an economic armageddon
When you contributed you paid other people’s pensions, who is paying yours today?
There were 30M income tax payers in the UK. Around 10M are now furloughed. 16% of workforce are public sector.
Who is paying the bills today?
Tomorrow is paying for it, as usual? What's your point though... do you think the government should be spending less?
My point is that economic position is far, far worse than currently discussed. We talk about the extra spending, but we don’t talk about the total collapse of tax income.
Of course there is going to be an effect on tax revenue, I don't think anyone has suggested otherwise. Currently, the focus is on helping people get through this, so it isn't all that surprising that there hasn't been much discussion on tax revenue in the next financial year.
It’s more than an effect, there is next to no tax revenue. It’s and Only Fools and Horses economy. No income tax, no vat, no corp tax, no fuel duty.
plus no business rates, no booze duty, no passenger duty, no gambling duty, no capital gains tax, no stamp duty, no NI, no nothing. A distasteful thought around growth in inheritance tax strikes me, but I shall push that to one side.
This is Napleonic wars, Great Depression stuff. We don't want to face it but is is coming down the line like a freight train.
I’m afraid I have been tupping the wife, so unable to contribute
I think Tyson is half right, half wrong
Yes the virus is going to ravage us for many months, maybe years. Vaccines are a long while away, treatments some time off.
But in the end we will just accept this, we won’t accept the destruction of our economies. Societies pre-antibiotics did not cower at home in fear of tonsillitis, they just factored in the risk and got on with it, knowing that a bug could kill them (tho it probably wouldn’t)
We will adapt and prosper, in the end.
Too much info....
Anyhow...third world countries with less regard for human life will come through this possibly much more quickly.
We could just motor our way through it....and say anyone with Covid- stay at home and hope for the best..and we'll be through it in a year....
Or we slow the rate of infection over years by self isolating, self distancing, keeping the old and infirm at home....until we get a vaccine
I was told this today by someone who is quite close to it all...
But what he or she told me is hardly fucking rocket science either
And I was surprised that I met the response I encountered here....
The recent modelling in the East Midlands has reduced by 50% the number needing ventilation. In Leicester we are forecasting peaking at about 150 in ICU (usual capacity around 50) now. We should be able to manage that.
There is some controversy over the merits of intubated ventilation vs CPAP and high flow nasal oxygen. On the one hand the former is more invasive, and more personnel intensive, on the other hand the latter can exceed the oxygen supply bandwidth of the hospital (or particular wards) and aerosolises the area around the patient with the Coronavirus.
East Mids news said tonight that Nightingale Birmingham would be used for overflow from Derby (as well as W Mids). No mention of overflow from Notts and Leics?
Derbyshire has 112 deaths compared to 62 in Leics and 67 in Notts, so seems to have it worse. I am not sure why.
Maybe it's due to the fact that Derbyshire is slightly more centrally-located.
Though Stoke still looks OK. Coventry getting bad. It is not obvious why at present. The SW and Wessex is doing well, apart from Cornwall.
We went from 22 to 62 deaths in a week, and are still half the national average. Maybe we are just a week behind Derby.
We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
We are locked in for years...in some way shape or form....
The over 70's....if they want to stay alive stay at home....they'll never get insurance to go abroad....and they would be mad to take a trip longer than a walk around the block...
Life has changed for the foreseeable future....maybe the next 10 years or more....
I have this view...not from Eadric.....but from a very good source....
You're being too pessimistic IMO.
I wish I could tell you who told me this.....
I can't......
This virus is out and horrible....and kills....and it has probably only worked it's way through 2-5% of the population- and that is optimistic....
How do you expect people who are vulnerable to be able to safely go outside when they can catch something that leads to a terrible, excruciating death a month later?
Tell me how that one works.....
When you are able to quote your source come back to us. With or without the multiple elipsis for effect.
His figure of 2-5% is on the low side of conventional thinking. Neil Ferguson thought 2-3% nine days ago: Asked how many people may have been infected in the UK, Prof Ferguson said it varied across the country. "(In) Central London it could be as many as 3% to 5% of the population has been infected, maybe more in individual hotspots. In the country as a whole, the UK, maybe 2% or 3%." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52087452
I don't know if anyone saw the news from ABC in the US suggesting intelligence reports that an outbreak was going on in Wuhan reached officials desks in November.
So how long was it going on before US Intelligence put 2 and 2 together to get 4 back then?
So it started October?
September?
And when did it first leave China?
The report was apparently from the end of November. Remember China first acknowledged it at the end of December with several dozens cases of pneumonia, and it takes a while for symptoms to develop.
That report was, if correctly reported, also a 2+2 = 4 report and comprehensive with it.
Bear in mind the following:
a) the lag in US intelligence sources picking it up, which could be days if they have many snippets from intercepts or good human sources but it could be weeks.
b) the lag in raw feed versus analysis and then into a firm report with a firm position of what was going on and its impacts, which reportedly this was. You could be looking at a week or two there alone
That there appears to have been no demur from this within any section of the US intelligence community as this worked its was along the bureaucratic chain suggests a good analysis picture by mid-November at least and intelligence picking it up consistently days or weeks before that.
Work backwards, China acknowledges a problem to the world late December, US intelligence has a firm output circulated on desks at end of November reportedly stating an epidemic that could threaten US forces in East Asia. If the US concluded that scale of a problem then there is no viable case to make that lag in cases meant that the Chinese didn't pick up on it until December and were really very good at telling the world about it.
Even if you take the view that the US intelligence was so good it had its first indicators within a day or two of the start of messages passing through the functionary chain in China then the chances are the Chinese knew there was something exceptional was going on as far back as late October.
One final point, c80% of actionable US intelligence is SIGINT. Taking that as the likely type of initial take and allowing the shortest time (ie a few days) from something happening in Wuhan making its way along the CCP channels to be intercepted, then they would have been taking it from conversations between Chinese government officials, who by that stage would have known of a problem.
They were not picking up calls from a couple of stressed out personnel at hospitals in Wuhan. It was likely already well along the CCP chain at the point of intercept.
We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
We are locked in for years...in some way shape or form....
The over 70's....if they want to stay alive stay at home....they'll never get insurance to go abroad....and they would be mad to take a trip longer than a walk around the block...
Life has changed for the foreseeable future....maybe the next 10 years or more....
I have this view...not from Eadric.....but from a very good source....
Under those circumstances I honestly believe most of the elderly I know will end up saying fuck it and go back to living their lives as they did before. The thinking being you have to die of something and a life of permanent incarceration is not one worth living measured against the risk of getting CV and dying.
Give them the light at the end of the tunnel - 3 months, 6 months or even 9 months and they will probably stick it out. Tell them this is the new norm and they will show you what they think of that.
You cannot give the message out I have just given to the population...
People knew the PM was struggling....and they couldn't let that be known until they had to...
It will be drips and drabs...we are easing off bit, and this will happen and that will happen..and then we need to tighten a bit, and then....
But...the old and vulnerable...you need to take care of yourselves....and stay in doors
We are possibly between 2-5% of this virus slowly working it's way through the population....
It doesn't matter. People have a finite ability to remain incarcerated. Whatever you do or do not tell them, eventually - and much sooner than you seem to think - they will take either an educated or uneducated risk and resume their normal lives.
That was my point Richard...there is not a normal life to go back to....there will not be pubs and clubs, and football and gigs and glasto....
There is a post Covid life that is going to be very strange...until we get a vaccine....and that could be years....
if this illness killed you suddenly..it might be different...but people know the lingering horror, over a month or so, where people die alone, knowing they are dying and in absolute fear....
Wonder how many people are paying income tax at the moment.
I am and a little more following our state pension increase this week
Hardly a net contributor to the state in that case. If companies are making a profit, companies are not paying salaries and people are not spending on VATable goods - who is paying the bills right now?
You are correct but I have paid huge sums of tax into the system over my working days
But as far as your last paaragraph is concerned it is an economic armageddon
When you contributed you paid other people’s pensions, who is paying yours today?
There were 30M income tax payers in the UK. Around 10M are now furloughed. 16% of workforce are public sector.
Who is paying the bills today?
Tomorrow is paying for it, as usual? What's your point though... do you think the government should be spending less?
My point is that economic position is far, far worse than currently discussed. We talk about the extra spending, but we don’t talk about the total collapse of tax income.
Of course there is going to be an effect on tax revenue, I don't think anyone has suggested otherwise. Currently, the focus is on helping people get through this, so it isn't all that surprising that there hasn't been much discussion on tax revenue in the next financial year.
It’s more than an effect, there is next to no tax revenue. It’s and Only Fools and Horses economy. No income tax, no vat, no corp tax, no fuel duty.
plus no business rates, no booze duty, no passenger duty, no gambling duty, no capital gains tax, no stamp duty, no NI, no nothing. A distasteful thought around growth in inheritance tax strikes me, but I shall push that to one side.
This is Napleonic wars, Great Depression stuff. We don't want to face it but is is coming down the line like a freight train.
If we’re going to be apocalyptic I had an evil, contrarian, Malthusian thought today.
What if an economy just let the virus do it’s thang. How bad would it be? Maybe not that awful. You’d lose a few million pensioners. Who provide relatively little economically. Also the disabled, the morbidly obese, the smokers, the mad.
Is this a disaster in Darwinian terms? Probably the opposite.
I am not espousing this, but if you a flinty-nosed eugenicist, them’s the facts. The society that first accepts the realities of corona might thrive in contrast to a society which tries desperately to suppress it.
In darker moments i have thought same. When the dust settles who survives society wise. Right now I'm thinking China not US or Europe. Eugenics is rightly vilified, but Darwin himself dabbled with it but rejected it as undermining the type of society we would want to live in. I do fear that choice is about to be taken away from us.
Jared Diamond in Collapse describes how Nordic Greenland became extinct largely because the colonisers stuck with old but no longer valid world views. Trying to raise beef in the blooming tundra whilst not going fishing. I wonder how a world historian of 2100 will judge our reaction to this.
We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
We are locked in for years...in some way shape or form....
The over 70's....if they want to stay alive stay at home....they'll never get insurance to go abroad....and they would be mad to take a trip longer than a walk around the block...
Life has changed for the foreseeable future....maybe the next 10 years or more....
I have this view...not from Eadric.....but from a very good source....
Under those circumstances I honestly believe most of the elderly I know will end up saying fuck it and go back to living their lives as they did before. The thinking being you have to die of something and a life of permanent incarceration is not one worth living measured against the risk of getting CV and dying.
Give them the light at the end of the tunnel - 3 months, 6 months or even 9 months and they will probably stick it out. Tell them this is the new norm and they will show you what they think of that.
You cannot give the message out I have just given to the population...
People knew the PM was struggling....and they couldn't let that be known until they had to...
It will be drips and drabs...we are easing off bit, and this will happen and that will happen..and then we need to tighten a bit, and then....
But...the old and vulnerable...you need to take care of yourselves....and stay in doors
We are possibly between 2-5% of this virus slowly working it's way through the population....
It doesn't matter. People have a finite ability to remain incarcerated. Whatever you do or do not tell them, eventually - and much sooner than you seem to think - they will take either an educated or uneducated risk and resume their normal lives.
That was my point Richard...there is not a normal life to go back to....there will not be pubs and clubs, and football and gigs and glasto....
There is a post Covid life that is going to be very strange...until we get a vaccine....and that could be years....
if this illness killed you suddenly..it might be different...but people know the lingering horror, over a month or so, where people die alone, knowing they are dying and in absolute fear....
No I disagree. All those things will return - and sooner than they should. You forget that the last few decades have been very unusual in terms of our ability to grow old without the fear of contagious disease. You only have to go back 50 years or so to find polio and TB - both of which did very similar slow and nasty things to our bodies and yet people accepted them as a risk and got on with their lives. For better or worse this will be the same.
The old world may have gone and things may have changed but the old world was the exception in history not the rule. Things are just changing back to how they were when those 70 year olds were children.
We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
We are locked in for years...in some way shape or form....
The over 70's....if they want to stay alive stay at home....they'll never get insurance to go abroad....and they would be mad to take a trip longer than a walk around the block...
Life has changed for the foreseeable future....maybe the next 10 years or more....
I have this view...not from Eadric.....but from a very good source....
Under those circumstances I honestly believe most of the elderly I know will end up saying fuck it and go back to living their lives as they did before. The thinking being you have to die of something and a life of permanent incarceration is not one worth living measured against the risk of getting CV and dying.
Give them the light at the end of the tunnel - 3 months, 6 months or even 9 months and they will probably stick it out. Tell them this is the new norm and they will show you what they think of that.
You cannot give the message out I have just given to the population...
People knew the PM was struggling....and they couldn't let that be known until they had to...
It will be drips and drabs...we are easing off bit, and this will happen and that will happen..and then we need to tighten a bit, and then....
But...the old and vulnerable...you need to take care of yourselves....and stay in doors
We are possibly between 2-5% of this virus slowly working it's way through the population....
It doesn't matter. People have a finite ability to remain incarcerated. Whatever you do or do not tell them, eventually - and much sooner than you seem to think - they will take either an educated or uneducated risk and resume their normal lives.
That was my point Richard...there is not a normal life to go back to....there will not be pubs and clubs, and football and gigs and glasto....
There is a post Covid life that is going to be very strange...until we get a vaccine....and that could be years....
if this illness killed you suddenly..it might be different...but people know the lingering horror, over a month or so, where people die alone, knowing they are dying and in absolute fear....
Glastonbury isn't normal life. You have to be a millionaire to get in these days.
Wonder how many people are paying income tax at the moment.
I am and a little more following our state pension increase this week
Hardly a net contributor to the state in that case. If companies are making a profit, companies are not paying salaries and people are not spending on VATable goods - who is paying the bills right now?
You are correct but I have paid huge sums of tax into the system over my working days
But as far as your last paaragraph is concerned it is an economic armageddon
When you contributed you paid other people’s pensions, who is paying yours today?
There were 30M income tax payers in the UK. Around 10M are now furloughed. 16% of workforce are public sector.
Who is paying the bills today?
Tomorrow is paying for it, as usual? What's your point though... do you think the government should be spending less?
My point is that economic position is far, far worse than currently discussed. We talk about the extra spending, but we don’t talk about the total collapse of tax income.
Of course there is going to be an effect on tax revenue, I don't think anyone has suggested otherwise. Currently, the focus is on helping people get through this, so it isn't all that surprising that there hasn't been much discussion on tax revenue in the next financial year.
It’s more than an effect, there is next to no tax revenue. It’s and Only Fools and Horses economy. No income tax, no vat, no corp tax, no fuel duty.
plus no business rates, no booze duty, no passenger duty, no gambling duty, no capital gains tax, no stamp duty, no NI, no nothing. A distasteful thought around growth in inheritance tax strikes me, but I shall push that to one side.
This is Napleonic wars, Great Depression stuff. We don't want to face it but is is coming down the line like a freight train.
If we’re going to be apocalyptic I had an evil, contrarian, Malthusian thought today.
What if an economy just let the virus do it’s thang. How bad would it be? Maybe not that awful. You’d lose a few million pensioners. Who provide relatively little economically. Also the disabled, the morbidly obese, the smokers, the mad.
Is this a disaster in Darwinian terms? Probably the opposite.
I am not espousing this, but if you a flinty-nosed eugenicist, them’s the facts. The society that first accepts the realities of corona might thrive in contrast to a society which tries desperately to suppress it.
In darker moments i have thought same. When the dust settles who survives society wise. Right now I'm thinking China not US or Europe. Eugenics is rightly vilified, but Darwin himself dabbled with it but rejected it as undermining the type of society we would want to live in. I do fear that choice is about to be taken away from us.
If China has succeeded in preventing the pandemic from spreading across the country, and keeping it out is a source of national pride, they may be compelled to become more insular even if this is against their economic interests.
The recent modelling in the East Midlands has reduced by 50% the number needing ventilation. In Leicester we are forecasting peaking at about 150 in ICU (usual capacity around 50) now. We should be able to manage that.
There is some controversy over the merits of intubated ventilation vs CPAP and high flow nasal oxygen. On the one hand the former is more invasive, and more personnel intensive, on the other hand the latter can exceed the oxygen supply bandwidth of the hospital (or particular wards) and aerosolises the area around the patient with the Coronavirus.
East Mids news said tonight that Nightingale Birmingham would be used for overflow from Derby (as well as W Mids). No mention of overflow from Notts and Leics?
Derbyshire has 112 deaths compared to 62 in Leics and 67 in Notts, so seems to have it worse. I am not sure why.
Maybe it's due to the fact that Derbyshire is slightly more centrally-located.
Though Stoke still looks OK. Coventry getting bad. It is not obvious why at present. The SW and Wessex is doing well, apart from Cornwall.
We went from 22 to 62 deaths in a week, and are still half the national average. Maybe we are just a week behind Derby.
Do you have a theory why corona is hitting BAME communities so hard?
The evidence is now undeniable and it can’t just be explained by poverty etc. Eg nearly all of the brave NHS doctors who have died (and we salute them) have been Asian/Muslim. Asian doctors are no poorer than their white counterparts
It’s very odd. Is it cultural?
I think it is to do with expression of ACE receptors, the entry site for the virus. People of African heritage respond less well to ACEi and ARB drugs for blood pressure.
Poverty and living in inner cities is a big part of the overall BME death rate though.
We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
We are locked in for years...in some way shape or form....
The over 70's....if they want to stay alive stay at home....they'll never get insurance to go abroad....and they would be mad to take a trip longer than a walk around the block...
Life has changed for the foreseeable future....maybe the next 10 years or more....
I have this view...not from Eadric.....but from a very good source....
Under those circumstances I honestly believe most of the elderly I know will end up saying fuck it and go back to living their lives as they did before. The thinking being you have to die of something and a life of permanent incarceration is not one worth living measured against the risk of getting CV and dying.
Give them the light at the end of the tunnel - 3 months, 6 months or even 9 months and they will probably stick it out. Tell them this is the new norm and they will show you what they think of that.
You cannot give the message out I have just given to the population...
People knew the PM was struggling....and they couldn't let that be known until they had to...
It will be drips and drabs...we are easing off bit, and this will happen and that will happen..and then we need to tighten a bit, and then....
But...the old and vulnerable...you need to take care of yourselves....and stay in doors
We are possibly between 2-5% of this virus slowly working it's way through the population....
It doesn't matter. People have a finite ability to remain incarcerated. Whatever you do or do not tell them, eventually - and much sooner than you seem to think - they will take either an educated or uneducated risk and resume their normal lives.
That was my point Richard...there is not a normal life to go back to....there will not be pubs and clubs, and football and gigs and glasto....
There is a post Covid life that is going to be very strange...until we get a vaccine....and that could be years....
if this illness killed you suddenly..it might be different...but people know the lingering horror, over a month or so, where people die alone, knowing they are dying and in absolute fear....
No I disagree. All those things will return - and sooner than they should. You forget that the last few decades have been very unusual in terms of our ability to grow old without the fear of contagious disease. You only have to go back 50 years or so to find polio and TB - both of which did very similar slow and nasty things to our bodies and yet people accepted them as a risk and got on with their lives. For better or worse this will be the same.
The old world may have gone and things may have changed but the old world was the exception in history not the rule. Things are just changing back to how they were when those 70 year olds were children.
CS Lewis on pain. We forget that until VERY recently pain and death were the norm. Get an abscess, break a leg, breech birth, infected wound. Pain and death. Just pain and death. We aren't used to this but were until 100 years ago. Hence religion.
We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
We are locked in for years...in some way shape or form....
The over 70's....if they want to stay alive stay at home....they'll never get insurance to go abroad....and they would be mad to take a trip longer than a walk around the block...
Life has changed for the foreseeable future....maybe the next 10 years or more....
I have this view...not from Eadric.....but from a very good source....
Under those circumstances I honestly believe most of the elderly I know will end up saying fuck it and go back to living their lives as they did before. The thinking being you have to die of something and a life of permanent incarceration is not one worth living measured against the risk of getting CV and dying.
Give them the light at the end of the tunnel - 3 months, 6 months or even 9 months and they will probably stick it out. Tell them this is the new norm and they will show you what they think of that.
You cannot give the message out I have just given to the population...
People knew the PM was struggling....and they couldn't let that be known until they had to...
It will be drips and drabs...we are easing off bit, and this will happen and that will happen..and then we need to tighten a bit, and then....
But...the old and vulnerable...you need to take care of yourselves....and stay in doors
We are possibly between 2-5% of this virus slowly working it's way through the population....
It doesn't matter. People have a finite ability to remain incarcerated. Whatever you do or do not tell them, eventually - and much sooner than you seem to think - they will take either an educated or uneducated risk and resume their normal lives.
That was my point Richard...there is not a normal life to go back to....there will not be pubs and clubs, and football and gigs and glasto....
There is a post Covid life that is going to be very strange...until we get a vaccine....and that could be years....
if this illness killed you suddenly..it might be different...but people know the lingering horror, over a month or so, where people die alone, knowing they are dying and in absolute fear....
Did western life end during smallpox? No. We carried on. We priced in the risk and went down the pub.
If you have come out with better one liners on pbcom than "We priced in the risk and went down the pub.." let me know...
It's a much better one liner than saying...I was tupping the missus.....earlier
Wonder how many people are paying income tax at the moment.
I am and a little more following our state pension increase this week
Hardly a net contributor to the state in that case. If companies are making a profit, companies are not paying salaries and people are not spending on VATable goods - who is paying the bills right now?
You are correct but I have paid huge sums of tax into the system over my working days
But as far as your last paaragraph is concerned it is an economic armageddon
When you contributed you paid other people’s pensions, who is paying yours today?
There were 30M income tax payers in the UK. Around 10M are now furloughed. 16% of workforce are public sector.
Who is paying the bills today?
Tomorrow is paying for it, as usual? What's your point though... do you think the government should be spending less?
My point is that economic position is far, far worse than currently discussed. We talk about the extra spending, but we don’t talk about the total collapse of tax income.
Of course there is going to be an effect on tax revenue, I don't think anyone has suggested otherwise. Currently, the focus is on helping people get through this, so it isn't all that surprising that there hasn't been much discussion on tax revenue in the next financial year.
It’s more than an effect, there is next to no tax revenue. It’s and Only Fools and Horses economy. No income tax, no vat, no corp tax, no fuel duty.
plus no business rates, no booze duty, no passenger duty, no gambling duty, no capital gains tax, no stamp duty, no NI, no nothing. A distasteful thought around growth in inheritance tax strikes me, but I shall push that to one side.
This is Napleonic wars, Great Depression stuff. We don't want to face it but is is coming down the line like a freight train.
If we’re going to be apocalyptic I had an evil, contrarian, Malthusian thought today.
What if an economy just let the virus do it’s thang. How bad would it be? Maybe not that awful. You’d lose a few million pensioners. Who provide relatively little economically. Also the disabled, the morbidly obese, the smokers, the mad.
Is this a disaster in Darwinian terms? Probably the opposite.
I am not espousing this, but if you a flinty-nosed eugenicist, them’s the facts. The society that first accepts the realities of corona might thrive in contrast to a society which tries desperately to suppress it.
Partly what is happening with the cutting loose of care homes to take care of themselves. The problem is the more you let the virus rage unchecked the more the health service falls over and the more brutal you have to be in triaging people out of meaningful treatment. So what do you do with them? Put them in temporary hospitals which are effectively death camps? Send them back to their not yet infected families? Weld them in? It is one thing to imagine how society might be "improved" if a million old and/or fat people magically disappeared, but another to supervise their gradual removal by the virus without a societal meltdown.
Wonder how many people are paying income tax at the moment.
I am and a little more following our state pension increase this week
Hardly a net contributor to the state in that case. If companies are making a profit, companies are not paying salaries and people are not spending on VATable goods - who is paying the bills right now?
You are correct but I have paid huge sums of tax into the system over my working days
But as far as your last paaragraph is concerned it is an economic armageddon
When you contributed you paid other people’s pensions, who is paying yours today?
There were 30M income tax payers in the UK. Around 10M are now furloughed. 16% of workforce are public sector.
Who is paying the bills today?
Tomorrow is paying for it, as usual? What's your point though... do you think the government should be spending less?
My point is that economic position is far, far worse than currently discussed. We talk about the extra spending, but we don’t talk about the total collapse of tax income.
Of course there is going to be an effect on tax revenue, I don't think anyone has suggested otherwise. Currently, the focus is on helping people get through this, so it isn't all that surprising that there hasn't been much discussion on tax revenue in the next financial year.
It’s more than an effect, there is next to no tax revenue. It’s and Only Fools and Horses economy. No income tax, no vat, no corp tax, no fuel duty.
plus no business rates, no booze duty, no passenger duty, no gambling duty, no capital gains tax, no stamp duty, no NI, no nothing. A distasteful thought around growth in inheritance tax strikes me, but I shall push that to one side.
This is Napleonic wars, Great Depression stuff. We don't want to face it but is is coming down the line like a freight train.
If we’re going to be apocalyptic I had an evil, contrarian, Malthusian thought today.
What if an economy just let the virus do it’s thang. How bad would it be? Maybe not that awful. You’d lose a few million pensioners. Who provide relatively little economically. Also the disabled, the morbidly obese, the smokers, the mad.
Is this a disaster in Darwinian terms? Probably the opposite.
I am not espousing this, but if you a flinty-nosed eugenicist, them’s the facts. The society that first accepts the realities of corona might thrive in contrast to a society which tries desperately to suppress it.
In darker moments i have thought same. When the dust settles who survives society wise. Right now I'm thinking China not US or Europe. Eugenics is rightly vilified, but Darwin himself dabbled with it but rejected it as undermining the type of society we would want to live in. I do fear that choice is about to be taken away from us.
If China has succeeded in preventing the pandemic from spreading across the country, and keeping it out is a source of national pride, they may be compelled to become more insular even if this is against their economic interests.
and so the isolationism that destroyed 1929 to 1939 begins :-( and we know how that ended. double :-(
I watched an episode of Detectorists tonight, and when a character gave someone a camera to take a photo of him with a find, my honest thought was ‘is he mad? that could be covered in germs’
Tyson's stick poking in the nest of disaster reminds me of Danny Baker's view of the BBC 5 Live, espoused whilst he worked for it. 'If you aren't terrified, we aren't doing our job'
Minorities are more likely to live in high density areas, and in the USA I think they're more likely to have obesity.
Also more likely to be communally religious than equivalent urban whites. Viruses will spread more easily in such environments, as we saw in South Korea.
Hence Orthodox Jews being particularly affected in Israel.
Thanks to Eadric and Ishmael Z for two excellent posts . Both really thought provoking in their own way for putting in a nutshell one eugenicist view and one reflecting on the moral dilemmas and effect on society of that .
We were told that the lock down would last potentially 12 weeks/3 months. It's not been 3 weeks.
Yes, I distinctly remember that. Mediapeople seem really surprised. I know they said they'd review things periodically but I don't think that many people expected an out any time soon.
We are locked in for years...in some way shape or form....
The over 70's....if they want to stay alive stay at home....they'll never get insurance to go abroad....and they would be mad to take a trip longer than a walk around the block...
Life has changed for the foreseeable future....maybe the next 10 years or more....
I have this view...not from Eadric.....but from a very good source....
Under those circumstances I honestly believe most of the elderly I know will end up saying fuck it and go back to living their lives as they did before. The thinking being you have to die of something and a life of permanent incarceration is not one worth living measured against the risk of getting CV and dying.
Give them the light at the end of the tunnel - 3 months, 6 months or even 9 months and they will probably stick it out. Tell them this is the new norm and they will show you what they think of that.
You cannot give the message out I have just given to the population...
People knew the PM was struggling....and they couldn't let that be known until they had to...
It will be drips and drabs...we are easing off bit, and this will happen and that will happen..and then we need to tighten a bit, and then....
But...the old and vulnerable...you need to take care of yourselves....and stay in doors
We are possibly between 2-5% of this virus slowly working it's way through the population....
It doesn't matter. People have a finite ability to remain incarcerated. Whatever you do or do not tell them, eventually - and much sooner than you seem to think - they will take either an educated or uneducated risk and resume their normal lives.
That was my point Richard...there is not a normal life to go back to....there will not be pubs and clubs, and football and gigs and glasto....
There is a post Covid life that is going to be very strange...until we get a vaccine....and that could be years....
if this illness killed you suddenly..it might be different...but people know the lingering horror, over a month or so, where people die alone, knowing they are dying and in absolute fear....
Did western life end during smallpox? No. We carried on. We priced in the risk and went down the pub.
If you have come out with better one liners on pbcom than "We priced in the risk and went down the pub.." let me know...
It's a much better one liner than saying...I was tupping the missus.....earlier
Its not a one-liner.
The NHS isn't set up to deal with this pandemic, no healthcare system is. We lack the ventilators etc as does everyone.
We have weeks, months maybe to sort out the NHS. This lockdown wil not and can not last forever. Eventually either the virus will burn out, or we will get a vaccine, or we will adapt to it. We will not cower forever.
Wonder how many people are paying income tax at the moment.
I am and a little more following our state pension increase this week
Hardly a net contributor to the state in that case. If companies are making a profit, companies are not paying salaries and people are not spending on VATable goods - who is paying the bills right now?
You are correct but I have paid huge sums of tax into the system over my working days
But as far as your last paaragraph is concerned it is an economic armageddon
When you contributed you paid other people’s pensions, who is paying yours today?
There were 30M income tax payers in the UK. Around 10M are now furloughed. 16% of workforce are public sector.
Who is paying the bills today?
Tomorrow is paying for it, as usual? What's your point though... do you think the government should be spending less?
My point is that economic position is far, far worse than currently discussed. We talk about the extra spending, but we don’t talk about the total collapse of tax income.
Of course there is going to be an effect on tax revenue, I don't think anyone has suggested otherwise. Currently, the focus is on helping people get through this, so it isn't all that surprising that there hasn't been much discussion on tax revenue in the next financial year.
It’s more than an effect, there is next to no tax revenue. It’s and Only Fools and Horses economy. No income tax, no vat, no corp tax, no fuel duty.
plus no business rates, no booze duty, no passenger duty, no gambling duty, no capital gains tax, no stamp duty, no NI, no nothing. A distasteful thought around growth in inheritance tax strikes me, but I shall push that to one side.
This is Napleonic wars, Great Depression stuff. We don't want to face it but is is coming down the line like a freight train.
If we’re going to be apocalyptic I had an evil, contrarian, Malthusian thought today.
What if an economy just let the virus do it’s thang. How bad would it be? Maybe not that awful. You’d lose a few million pensioners. Who provide relatively little economically. Also the disabled, the morbidly obese, the smokers, the mad.
Is this a disaster in Darwinian terms? Probably the opposite.
I am not espousing this, but if you a flinty-nosed eugenicist, them’s the facts. The society that first accepts the realities of corona might thrive in contrast to a society which tries desperately to suppress it.
In darker moments i have thought same. When the dust settles who survives society wise. Right now I'm thinking China not US or Europe. Eugenics is rightly vilified, but Darwin himself dabbled with it but rejected it as undermining the type of society we would want to live in. I do fear that choice is about to be taken away from us.
Jared Diamond in Collapse describes how Nordic Greenland became extinct largely because the colonisers stuck with old but no longer valid world views. Trying to raise beef in the blooming tundra whilst not going fishing. I wonder how a world historian of 2100 will judge our reaction to this.
It was China who allowed the virus to grow in the first place and the Chinese have also covered up the number of cases and deaths there.
South Korea and Germany have managed this far better than China has with mass testing etc rather than just authoritarian lockdown
The recent modelling in the East Midlands has reduced by 50% the number needing ventilation. In Leicester we are forecasting peaking at about 150 in ICU (usual capacity around 50) now. We should be able to manage that.
There is some controversy over the merits of intubated ventilation vs CPAP and high flow nasal oxygen. On the one hand the former is more invasive, and more personnel intensive, on the other hand the latter can exceed the oxygen supply bandwidth of the hospital (or particular wards) and aerosolises the area around the patient with the Coronavirus.
East Mids news said tonight that Nightingale Birmingham would be used for overflow from Derby (as well as W Mids). No mention of overflow from Notts and Leics?
Derbyshire has 112 deaths compared to 62 in Leics and 67 in Notts, so seems to have it worse. I am not sure why.
I have a close relative in a small town in Lincs - crossing fingers for her, but it seems less affected so far, probably because of thinner population density and the fact that there isn't much reason to go there unless you live there. homes like that may be particularly prized in the future.
Saw the remarkable cashj-in that Wimbledon had on its pandemic insurance. Impressive. I know a small business which far-sightedly insured against economic losses caused by pandemics, only to be told that pandemics are defined by the company as a specified list of known types and since Covid-19 wasn't a known type, it doesn't count as a pandemic under the contract. Not one of your REAL pandemics, y'know ^^. The CEO asked me for advice - if that's what the contract says, I guess they're stuck, but suggested naming and shaming since they certainly advertised it as pandemic insurance - classic small print issue.
Wonder how many people are paying income tax at the moment.
I am and a little more following our state pension increase this week
Hardly a net contributor to the state in that case. If companies are making a profit, companies are not paying salaries and people are not spending on VATable goods - who is paying the bills right now?
You are correct but I have paid huge sums of tax into the system over my working days
But as far as your last paaragraph is concerned it is an economic armageddon
When you contributed you paid other people’s pensions, who is paying yours today?
There were 30M income tax payers in the UK. Around 10M are now furloughed. 16% of workforce are public sector.
Who is paying the bills today?
The chancellor
The Chancellor is a very wealthy self-made man and clearly generous to a tee. I am not sure he has the personal resources to dig us out of this hole.
Wonder how many people are paying income tax at the moment.
I am and a little more following our state pension increase this week
Hardly a net contributor to the state in that case. If companies are making a profit, companies are not paying salaries and people are not spending on VATable goods - who is paying the bills right now?
You are correct but I have paid huge sums of tax into the system over my working days
But as far as your last paaragraph is concerned it is an economic armageddon
When you contributed you paid other people’s pensions, who is paying yours today?
There were 30M income tax payers in the UK. Around 10M are now furloughed. 16% of workforce are public sector.
Who is paying the bills today?
Our children and grandchildren.
My 3 and 5 year old daughters are paying the bill.
I’m afraid I have been tupping the wife, so unable to contribute
I think Tyson is half right, half wrong
Yes the virus is going to ravage us for many months, maybe years. Vaccines are a long while away, treatments some time off.
But in the end we will just accept this, we won’t accept the destruction of our economies. Societies pre-antibiotics did not cower at home in fear of tonsillitis, they just factored in the risk and got on with it, knowing that a bug could kill them (tho it probably wouldn’t)
We will adapt and prosper, in the end.
Some of us will adapt and prosper. In the long run we are all dead.
Comments
Try not to despair. It's still the early chapters of this story.
--AS
The reality is that this is a virus that probably kills about 10% plus of people with chronic symptoms and people aged over 75- and if it doesn't kill them- it causes them to be seriously unwell, requiring hospitalisation....
Kansas Republican leaders on Wednesday revoked Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly’s order limiting religious gatherings to 10 people, paving the way for churches to meet on Easter Sunday – a scenario health officials fear will further spread the deadly coronavirus across the state.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhmfNNEUb5w
Parkinson's law of triviality is C. Northcote Parkinson's 1957 argument that members of an organization give disproportionate weight to trivial issues.[1] Parkinson provides the example of a fictional committee whose job was to approve the plans for a nuclear power plant spending the majority of its time on discussions about relatively minor but easy-to-grasp issues, such as what materials to use for the staff bike shed, while neglecting the proposed design of the plant itself, which is far more important and a far more difficult and complex task.
The law has been applied to software development and other activities.[2] The terms bicycle-shed effect, bike-shed effect, and bike-shedding were coined as metaphors to illuminate the law of triviality; it was popularised in the Berkeley Software Distribution community by the Danish software developer Poul-Henning Kamp in 1999[3] and has spread from there to the whole software industry.
The concept was first presented as a corollary of his broader "Parkinson's law" spoof of management. He dramatizes this "law of triviality" with the example of a committee's deliberations on an atomic reactor, contrasting it to deliberations on a bicycle shed. As he put it: "The time spent on any item of the agenda will be in inverse proportion to the sum [of money] involved." A reactor is so vastly expensive and complicated that an average person cannot understand it, so one assumes that those who work on it understand it. On the other hand, everyone can visualize a cheap, simple bicycle shed, so planning one can result in endless discussions because everyone involved wants to add a touch and show personal contribution.[4]
Problems arise after a suggestion of building something new for the community, like a bike shed, causes everyone involved to argue about the details. This is a metaphor indicating that it is not necessary to argue about every little feature based simply on the knowledge to do so. Some people have commented that the amount of noise generated by a change is inversely proportional to the complexity of the change.[3]
Even so, it will be a close run thing. The limiting factors are staff and oxygen supply at the moment. Also running out of long-sleeved PPE, and none expected.
A vaccine could be years away...fingers crossed we get one in a year or a year and a half...but if it's longer we have a terrible virus that can kill you if you pop to the shops to buy the milk....
But as far as your last paaragraph is concerned it is an economic armageddon
A lot of restaurants and bars are going out of business, I don't think there's any way around that. Although their rents should also drop...
There were 30M income tax payers in the UK. Around 10M are now furloughed. 16% of workforce are public sector.
Who is paying the bills today?
Tomorrow get out for your permitted exercise, look around you at nature and the wonders of the world and try not to let your imagination run away too much.
I'm off to bed and I suggest you do the same.
In different beds. Obvs.
That is what I was told....until we get a vaccine this is a war that is going to fundamentally change the way we live and our economy....
Off the top of my head we have car finance ($1 Trillion in US alone), commercial real estate collateralisation (several trillion), alt banking loan to loan stuff in PE world (crap knows), residential real estate under water valuations (more than all the above). When you turn off income and render assets unvaluable things can get very bad very quickly.
on the upside my bulbs and seedlings are looking good. :-)
'You fucking stupid morons. I. Was. Right!'
'We're going to hit Armageddon in three days, aren't we.'
'Children born today will grow up in a world the like of which humanity has never known.'
'That Adam Boulton really is a...'
All that will be rising after Easter will be very many people's temperatures.....
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/repayment-of-26-billion-historical-debt-to-be-completed-by-government
Some absolute Duncan Smith being spouted on here tonight
The only reason why the stock market is hovering where it is is because people are making money dipping in and out...the real economy must be circa 33-40% lower, and maybe more....
In a way I'm in a decent position, I can take retirement in six months or so (although it would badly affect any pension that I get, as I still have mortgage to pay off, that is the easiest decision to take ever) so I'm probably not going to have to make that terrible choice.
There's normalcy bias, but people tonight are displaying the equally damaging exaggeration bias.
Asked how many people may have been infected in the UK, Prof Ferguson said it varied across the country.
"(In) Central London it could be as many as 3% to 5% of the population has been infected, maybe more in individual hotspots. In the country as a whole, the UK, maybe 2% or 3%."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52087452
This is Napleonic wars, Great Depression stuff. We don't want to face it but is is coming down the line like a freight train.
Anyhow...third world countries with less regard for human life will come through this possibly much more quickly.
We could just motor our way through it....and say anyone with Covid- stay at home and hope for the best..and we'll be through it in a year....
Or we slow the rate of infection over years by self isolating, self distancing, keeping the old and infirm at home....until we get a vaccine
I was told this today by someone who is quite close to it all...
But what he or she told me is hardly fucking rocket science either
And I was surprised that I met the response I encountered here....
We went from 22 to 62 deaths in a week, and are still half the national average. Maybe we are just a week behind Derby.
https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1165/rr-2
Bear in mind the following:
a) the lag in US intelligence sources picking it up, which could be days if they have many snippets from intercepts or good human sources but it could be weeks.
b) the lag in raw feed versus analysis and then into a firm report with a firm position of what was going on and its impacts, which reportedly this was. You could be looking at a week or two there alone
That there appears to have been no demur from this within any section of the US intelligence community as this worked its was along the bureaucratic chain suggests a good analysis picture by mid-November at least and intelligence picking it up consistently days or weeks before that.
Work backwards, China acknowledges a problem to the world late December, US intelligence has a firm output circulated on desks at end of November reportedly stating an epidemic that could threaten US forces in East Asia. If the US concluded that scale of a problem then there is no viable case to make that lag in cases meant that the Chinese didn't pick up on it until December and were really very good at telling the world about it.
Even if you take the view that the US intelligence was so good it had its first indicators within a day or two of the start of messages passing through the functionary chain in China then the chances are the Chinese knew there was something exceptional was going on as far back as late October.
One final point, c80% of actionable US intelligence is SIGINT. Taking that as the likely type of initial take and allowing the shortest time (ie a few days) from something happening in Wuhan making its way along the CCP channels to be intercepted, then they would have been taking it from conversations between Chinese government officials, who by that stage would have known of a problem.
They were not picking up calls from a couple of stressed out personnel at hospitals in Wuhan. It was likely already well along the CCP chain at the point of intercept.
There is a post Covid life that is going to be very strange...until we get a vaccine....and that could be years....
if this illness killed you suddenly..it might be different...but people know the lingering horror, over a month or so, where people die alone, knowing they are dying and in absolute fear....
Jared Diamond in Collapse describes how Nordic Greenland became extinct largely because the colonisers stuck with old but no longer valid world views. Trying to raise beef in the blooming tundra whilst not going fishing. I wonder how a world historian of 2100 will judge our reaction to this.
The old world may have gone and things may have changed but the old world was the exception in history not the rule. Things are just changing back to how they were when those 70 year olds were children.
Poverty and living in inner cities is a big part of the overall BME death rate though.
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1247768098196742144?s=09
If you have come out with better one liners on pbcom than "We priced in the risk and went down the pub.." let me know...
It's a much better one liner than saying...I was tupping the missus.....earlier
Hence Orthodox Jews being particularly affected in Israel.
The NHS isn't set up to deal with this pandemic, no healthcare system is. We lack the ventilators etc as does everyone.
We have weeks, months maybe to sort out the NHS. This lockdown wil not and can not last forever. Eventually either the virus will burn out, or we will get a vaccine, or we will adapt to it. We will not cower forever.
South Korea and Germany have managed this far better than China has with mass testing etc rather than just authoritarian lockdown
Saw the remarkable cashj-in that Wimbledon had on its pandemic insurance. Impressive. I know a small business which far-sightedly insured against economic losses caused by pandemics, only to be told that pandemics are defined by the company as a specified list of known types and since Covid-19 wasn't a known type, it doesn't count as a pandemic under the contract. Not one of your REAL pandemics, y'know ^^. The CEO asked me for advice - if that's what the contract says, I guess they're stuck, but suggested naming and shaming since they certainly advertised it as pandemic insurance - classic small print issue.
My 3 and 5 year old daughters are paying the bill.
EDIT: Their future children could be too.
Not glad a dementia-ridden old fart who even at his prime was America's answer to Neil Kinnock is the alternative.
Even more not glad that dementia-Kinnock is infinitely better than the incumbent.
What a mess.