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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage says that in many seats at GE2015 only UKIP will be able to beat Labour
In the Independent this morning Nigel Farage seeks to deal with what will be a big negative for his party at GE2015 – the notion that a vote for UKIP is a wasted vote and could let Ed Miliband in.
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I still think that UKIP are making a major strategic error if they're aiming to concentrate on a handful of constituencies rather than maximising their vote across the country, but then that depends on what they think their party is for. Has Caroline Lucas winning really made that much difference to the Greens? Probably not, but even if you accept that she has, the Greens are in a wholly different position to UKIP: the eco-communists lose most of their deposits across the country; UKIP have piled up second places in by-elections this parliament. It made sense for the Greens to concentrate on their few possibilities when the mood of the country was so far from being with them; UKIP, on the other hand, could well achieve their principle objective - withdrawal from the EU - without needing any MPs if they can produce enough political pressure on those parties in parliament to grant a referendum. That pressure won't come from an MP or two in Westminster; it comes from affecting hundreds of results all over the country.
One thing I guess voters are pretty good at working out is that where a party has an incumbent MP, that person is probably the best tactical choice. This would explain a decent part of the incumbency benefit that LibDem MPs get. So if UKIP fight all over the country you'd expect Con incumbents to out-perform the national party by more than normal. Meanwhile in Lab-held seats the Tories will be trading mendacious bar-charts with UKIP and splitting the opposition to the incumbent Lab MP.
All this seems to point to a very "sticky" election, where either side will need quite a serious improvement on their 2010 position to effect any change to the status quo.
And if they start succeeding in places the Tories are beyond hope (oop north) well maybe the day will come when a Tory / UKIP coalition is feasible. That'd be a laugh!
It makes me think that these polls are not about political intelligence but are just about marketing. And they are specifically anti-Tory, whereas the polling data suggests that UKIP has potential to be much more than that.
It seems to me that there are 3 options: Farage doesn't care about letting Labour in (in which case he is naive); Farage has a grudge against the Tories (who knows); or that he just likes the publicity and knows that attacking the Tories will get his disproportionate attention from the media.
I suspect a combination of all 3.
But they are not that serious about winning seats.
How many councils and councillors did UKIP win in this year's council elections? How many council seats has it won since and indeed how many has it lost?
Brighton was natural fertile territory for the Greens in 2010, exiled politically-correct London chatterati types. Is the so called "typical" Northern English voter really a potential UKIP voter at a GE rather than the odd council by-election where the turnout is sub30%?
TNS Sifo/SVT
Re-nationalise schools?
Yes 61%
No 12%
http://www.svt.se/nyheter/sverige/svenskarna-vill-aterforstatliga-skolan
The Education Minister Jan Björklund (from the Peoples' Party, ie. Lib Dem) has gone on national TV to say he supports re-nationalisation.
The supporters of every single parliamentary party (there are 8 of them) back re-nationalisation. Support is weakest among the tiny Christian Democrats, but even among these supporters half of respondents want to re-nationalise.
Nationalisation of education has been talked about in Scotland, but I'm not aware of any support for it in England.
The deployment of the constituency polls is clever, as is releasing them one at a time - the first time a party has used polling nationally over a long period to make a particular point. The methodology (giving UKIP equal billing on the voting slip) maximises the UKIP response without being anything you could really call bias. Mrs Duffy, who is a forgiving soul, is I believe a member of the Labour Party. I think UKIP has a decent chance of being the main opposition to Labour in various Northern seats, pushing up their poll rating overall. I can't see them winning any, but it serves Farage's intention of increasing their overall rating and credibility.
My understanding is that Farage is deadly serious about getting Westminster MPs. He can't come out of another general election with a duck.
"LABOUR has selected former MSP Karen Whitefield as the party’s Falkirk candidate to replace the disgraced MP Eric Joyce at the next general election in 2015. Ms Whitefield, 43, who lost her Airdrie and Shotts seat in the 2011 Holyrood election, was previously chairwoman of the education committee in the Scottish Parliament."
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/falkirk-labour-choose-karen-whitefield-as-candidate-1-3225127
Falkirk is one of the very few Labour Westminster seats which has been mentioned as a possible SNP gain.
Ladbrokes - next UK GE
Over 6.5 SNP seats? 4/5
Under 6.5 seats? 11/10
In Scotland, the unionists need to win hearts, not minds
An economic argument won't decide the independence referendum. What matters is whether Scots feel British
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/dec/08/scotland-unionists-hearts-independence-referendum?commentpage=1
But if you believe that political advertising has any effect at all (and I would assume that it does, but that it has a very short half life) then advertising aggressively immediately befor taking a poll is similar to a push poll (although with a less obvious bias)
HOLYROOD authorities are poised to sever the link between the salaries of MSPs and MPs after a proposed 11% increase in pay at Westminster prompted widespread condemnation.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/wider-political-news/holyrood-set-to-cut-pay-link-after-planned-11-rise-for-mps.22897959
Mr. G, I'm not sure I entirely agree, and not just because Huhne's a dubious fellow.
I think that people looking to the future (ie when they're dead and their children and grandchildren are living with the union or independence) will weigh money more heavily. Older people are likelier to vote, and most old people are women so I imagine more women will consider the money argument over sentiment. Men are more prone to risk-taking, so are probably more willing to upset the apple-cart and go for independence (well, that's my sleepy view, anyway).
On a related note, if we had a trebuchet-based justice system Chris Huhne would have had a much briefer, although rather soggier, sentence for his actions.
Edited extra bit: on an unrelated note, the Terracotta Army programme on Ch4 was rather good, better than I'd expected. Glad I watched it. I didn't realise it was quite so recent (middle/late 3rd century BC) and that the Han Dynasty [the end of which is depicted in the classic Three Kingdoms] arrived almost as soon as Qin Shihuangdi (why has the 'di' disappeared? I'm sure that was his name in Fear Effect) died.
Lot of economic fear out there.
And conversely, the SNP need to win the minds, not the hearts.
And they're not doing too good a job of it. There are too many unanswered questions, although I expect howls of anguish and complaint from you and others.
(BTW, I wish we could just remove Huhne out of politics. Why doesn't he just go back to one of his many houses and relax a little instead of pretending he is anything other than an odious little man?)
And they're not doing too good a job of it. There are too many unanswered questions, although I expect howls of anguish and complaint from you and others.
(BTW, I wish we could just remove Huhne out of politics. Why doesn't he just go back to one of his many houses and relax a little instead of pretending he is anything other than an odious little man?)
Howls of anguish and complaint from me? Hardly. I do not feel the slightest compunction to respond to any of your "unanswered questions" (ho ho), far less howl about it.
The goal of the Yes campaign is to win a majority for Scotland on Thursday 18 September 2014. Nothing more. Nothing less.
The goal of the No campaign appears to be to "win" opinion polls. Fine.They can win as many opinion polls they like. In fact, the more the better, because with each poll they become more arrogant and more complacent.
I have a spare postage stamp if that helps....
Has Huhne been lost to politics. His self rehabilitation has been a remarkable triumph of will over reality. He probably has more influence today than when he was in govt, or opposition.
Generous?
The likes of Huhne is exactly the reason that so many politicians are wrongly held in contempt, tarred with the same brush.
He's had his chance. He blew it, big time.
I'm sorry if you think it is nasty, but just look at the way he has led his personal and political life to see that 'nasty' best befits him. Remember 'Calamity Clegg'? Remember the brave way he told his wife he was leaving her?
I stick by my words: he is an odious little man.
The more he is in the public eye, the more he damages the Lib Dems. He knows it (it will be a form of revenge), and so does the Guardian.
' Huhne who is a great loss to politics. His weekly Guardian columns have become a must read.
Someone who thinks they are above the law and drags their entire family down with their lies ,is a great loss to politics?
Bill Walker, for instance?
The guy has done his time. Let him get on with his life.
The likes of Huhne is exactly the reason that so many politicians are wrongly held in contempt, tarred with the same brush.
He's had his chance. He blew it, big time.
I'm sorry if you think it is nasty, but just look at the way he has led his personal and political life to see that 'nasty' best befits him. Remember 'Calamity Clegg'? Remember the brave way he told his wife he was leaving her?
I stick by my words: he is an odious little man.
The more he is in the public eye, the more he damages the Lib Dems. He knows it (it will be a form of revenge), and so does the Guardian.
Huhne obviously regards himself as to important to choose this method of atonement:
" After his resignation, Profumo began to work as a volunteer cleaning toilets at Toynbee Hall, a charity based in the East End of London, and continued to work there for the rest of his life.[1] Eventually, he volunteered as the charity's chief fundraiser. These charitable activities helped to restore the fallen politician's reputation; he was appointed a Commander of the Order of the British Empire (CBE) in 1975 "
Pensions are a big problem. Scottish life expectancy, I believe, is shorter than that elsewhere in the UK, so higher pension ages would be worse (relatively) for the Scots than other Britons. It's also not something that would really change if we had a new UK government. However, if Scotland does become independent unravelling the pensions of Britons and Scots could be very difficult indeed. (Imagine someone with an English mother and Scottish father, registered to vote in Scotland, who lives in Scotland and commutes across the border to work in England every day. Who pays the pension?)
There will be targeted districts of course, but don't make the mistake of thinking that UKIP will not stand everywhere they can.
'Jonathan, There is but people are starting to realise it is either YES for a chance or NO for poverty. The tide has turned'
So if the tide has turned & after Salmond's white paper a couple of weeks ago,what changes are you expecting in the next batch of polls?
That is undoubtedly one route to power but it's one that's taken the Lib Dems sixty years to take them from a taxicab-full of MPs to government, wheras UKIP have the potential to overtake the Lib Dems in votes come 2015 (I don't think they will, for what it's worth, but it certainly might happen).
We're also assuming that all voters care about affecting who is returned, which is patently untrue. There is bags of evidence that while some voters clearly care supporting a party that might be elected, or stopping one that might be, it's very far from all of them. For one thing, if that motivation were true, the same logic would apply at a national level and only Conservatives or Labour would ever be elected. UKIP can fish happily in this pool of voters without having to resort to barcharts: they simply need to campaign on rejecting the other three parties. Given that around 40% of the electorate didn't support any of them last time - either because they didn't vote at all or because they supported a minor party - and given that the Lib Dem option of 'not the others' is far less in play, I'd have thought that across most of the country 'Protest Now' or 'Vote Against the Lot of Them' would be more effective.
Any idea what it was called? [I appreciate this is an obscure question. Something like the 2nd century AD is the timezone I think it was used].
I think Farage is aiming for those Northern Labour voters who are economically left wing and socially right wing, and there are a lot of them. The Mrs Duffys - Phil Woolas territory. My auntie from Yorkshire was a union activist and Labour party member but probably too extreme for Ukip.
They vote Labour despite disagreeing with many of their policies. It's an emotional tie and Farage thinks it can be broken. Hence the Labour MPs queuing up to apologise for elements of the last government
If you want to read anything else into it, then that's your problem.
The way I see it is this: we are citizens. We are all flawed; some in large ways, some in small ways. If you have 1,000 citizens in a room, there will be a small number of wife beaters, rapists, swindlers, fraudsters, drunkards, and any other number of flawed characters. There will be a very small number of 'good' characters with few, if any, significant flaws. (*)
Politicians put themselves forward for election from that pool. The idea that the people willing to put themselves through the hardship and uncertainty of an election campaign all being in the latter 'good' pool than the former 'flawed' pool is laughable.
We all go on about wanting our politicians to be 'like us'. In all too many cases, they are. That is both a glory of the system and a big problem.
(*) On this, I must congratulate John Woodcock on his statement about his depression. A brave move, and one the media have thankfully responded very humanely to.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25252795
Apparently the protestors want an unelected People's Council.
'The polls are mince, the weighting they use is useless. I expect nothing from them, unionists will keep kidding themselves they are doing well till the spring when the panic will set in as they see the light.'
So lets get this right,you say the tide has turned,only a YES vote will get Scotland out of poverty,we had the spectacular launch of the independence white paper by Salmond,but the polling companies are rubbish and will show none of this?
Are you having a laugh?
2) I would not have him in the stocks. But Huhne has lost all credibility. There are better - and wiser - people to whom we should listen, on all sides of politics. Give them their chance.
3) He has served his time. But that does not mean he is rehabilitated.
Surprising then that the SNP haven't asked a reputable firm to carry out their own polling for the SNP ?
Both the Tories and Ukip are right - voting for the latter will let Labour in to many seats, but most Ukip supporters aren't natural Tory voters anyway. It will be a shame to see Ukip poll second to Labour in many urban, particularly northern seats, as it will just emphasise where the Conservatives have gone wrong.
The best thing Cameron and Co could do would be to give these disaffected voters something to vote for in the first place. A lot more to do there, but I hope we will get something closer to the election.
A very solid set of consumer expenditure figures for November reported in the "Visa Europe: UK Expenditure Index". Few will now be doubting that the economic recovery has solid foundations but it is always comforting to see this assumption confirmed by the latest metrics.
As Huhne attracts attention by opining on Scotland and Farage continues his search for a winnable constituency, George Osborne continues to deliver his good cheer through our shops.
Headline figures from Visa Report:
• Month-on-month consumer spending increased by +1.0% in November, following a modest decline in October (-1.4%).
• Year-on-year spending rose at the second-strongest rate for over three years (+1.5%), following a slight increase in October (+0.5%).
• Quarterly spending figures signalled that underlying expenditure improved at the strongest rate for seven months (+1.1%), following an increase in October (+0.8%).
• Non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year expenditure increased across all three monitored spending channels in November: Face-to-Face (+1.3%), Online (+1.0%) and Mail/Telephone Order (+2.6%).
Seasonal tinsel was added to the good cheer when Paul Smith, Senior Economist at Markit, commented:
“November’s UK Expenditure Index turned in a notable performance, with growth recorded on the high street and online. An overall annual rate of expansion of 1.5% is the best since June, and the data are consistent with the economy heading in Q4 for another quarter of least 0.8% q-o-q growth.
Should Cameron follow the Heineken strategy and give UKIP a run at some labour seats ?
The problem would of course be it would be seen as giving up on the North and cities, and he and Farage have just let it get too personal.
You mean he isn't ? :-)
I'd say the whole case for 'Free' Schools - flimsy thought it always was - has been completely demolished.
There is but a smoking ruin of an ideology and policy, which will be swept away by an incoming Labour government.
http://www.conservativehome.com/the-deep-end/2013/12/the-british-economy-where-did-it-all-go-right.html
Demolished in comment 1.
The current Unionist narrative suits the Yes campaign just fine. When the No side are digging such a fine hole for themselves there is no need to disrupt them.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25219453
"Labour's plans to freeze fuel prices could bankrupt investors in energy companies, the head of the OECD has told Panorama.
Forcing firms to absorb wholesale price increases could put investors in financial danger, said Angel Gurria, the organisation's secretary-general."
""They'll probably go bankrupt. How are you going to get people to come in and invest to get their money back in 30, 40 years' time when you say there's going to be a freeze?
"I think this is simply not consistent, not economically objective.""
Ultimately most output is 'consumed' by households, so rising sales indicate that more factories and people are working. We shouldn't assume that increased consumer expenditure is automatically undesirable: it is a sign of growing confidence in the economy and slowly improving household finances.
A growth in consumer credit too, or, at this stage of the recovery, more likely a fall in savings, is also a sign of the economic recovery bedding in. It all depends on the balance and rates of change and there is nothing so far in the BoE figures on household sector finances to suggest that consumer credit figures or even the savings ratio are changing at an abnormal rate or creating dangers for the future.
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/2013/12/by-george-britains-austerity-experiment-didnt-work.html
And Labour's state education legacy......a stunning bottom of the global league.
'Research by the respected Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) found that 16- to 24-year-olds lag close to the bottom of global league tables in literacy and numeracy.
According to figures, England is ranked 22nd out of 24 western countries in terms of literacy and 21st for numeracy – being outperformed by nations such as Estonia, Poland and Slovakia.'
Also interesting to see the strongest growth in the Midlands.
"The latest Report on Jobs from the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) and KPMG has identified an easing in staff placements while salaries have risen at their sharpest rate in six years. Permanent and temporary appointments having continued to rise at strong, albeit slower rates with overall vacancies increasing at the fastest pace since July 1998. Permanent salary growth is now at a six-year high reflecting the decline in candidate availability.
Regionally speaking the increase in permanent placements was experienced in all four monitored English regions with the Midlands continuing to register the fastest growth. The Midlands also led a broad-based expansion of temporary/contract staff billings during November.
Private sector demand for staff remained stronger than public sector demand. Growth of demand was broad-based across all nine types of permanent staff monitored by the survey in November. The strongest rate of expansion was signalled for Engineering workers, as was the case in October."
http://www.theglobalrecruiter.com/news/latest-jobs-report-from-rec-shows-result-of-declining-candidate-availability/4755
The toxic side effect of free schools that Conservative supporters should worry about is they have distracted Michael Gove from the school places shortage that developed while his eye was off the ball.
Looks like we're going tinto reverse in Education under the Tories. Again.
If something is failing to such a degree, it is worth trying a different approach. Just because it fails in one place, does not mean the same concepts applied differently will not work. But it is a worrying indication.
But a return to the 1997-2010 status quo is also not an option.
Consumption is being supported by heavy government borrowing. If HMG stopped borrowing a lot of households would have less money and consumption would fall off a cliff. Our growth is not being driven by industry selling more than it did pre recession or by a sudden improvement in the BoP. All things being equal these last two factors continue to be real worries for our future well being, since by whichever measure we take we're still not paying our way in the world. It is to be regretted that HMG didn't tackle these Achilles heels of the british economy early in this Parlt when it had the public in a mind to take on major change.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-25268451
Will Labour in Wales deprive Ed Milliband of an attack line on the UK Government? Toby suggested that a few days ago in the Telegraph. An issue of "least worst"?
If UKIP secure 14% but win no seats, I'd say it's far more likely that there'll be an In/Out EU referendum than if they win one seat on 5%. That, for them, is a very good thing.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/shortcuts/2013/dec/05/pig-semen-china-piers-morgan-embarassing-british-exports
And what people outside the Tory bubble fear from Tory meddling in education is that kind of slump again.
History did not start in 1997.
Not a chance.
Spending on schools went up so standards must have improved... Simple.