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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage says that in many seats at GE2015 only UKIP will be

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    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Richard Nanavi is still peddling the line that UKIP 'cannot want to leave the EU because a strong electoral showing is likely to lead to a labour govt'. And as only the tories (currently) are promising an in/out referendum, UKIP must therefore be 'frightened' of losing the referendum.

    1 UKIP does not believe that Cameron is the man to lead Britain out of the EU. And most people, of all political opinions, agree with that assessment of Cameron.

    2 Are we likely to win an out vote with all three of the other party leaders and the BBC scaremongering and frightening the electorate to vote in? We think that would be a tough ask. If we lose an in/out referendum, we will never be offered a second opportunity. We have to get our ducks in a row. That requires strong and growing votes for UKIP, in any and all elections.

    So in summary - UKIP are chicken.
    When the new owners bought Man City and said they wanted to be the Champions of Europe, should they have challenged the current Champions to a one off match away from home there and then and give up if they lost, or try and build a squad that could compete first?

    Except the game wouldn't be played until May 2017.

    Which is ages away - even Eck Salmond manned up and went for it in a referendum.

    At least you are honest though - admitting you are scared.
    Did SNP do a deal with their enemies to get a referendum?

    As if helping to put someone opposed to leaving the EU in government would be sensible for a party that want to leave... You must think UKIP are crazy... The dwindling number of Tory members mostly do I suppose!

    I am a v honest person, but I can't see where I admitted to being scared... Where was that?

    I am a member of UKIP but not just for EU withdrawal although I obviously want that.
    With you 100%.
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,804
    I'd like to see a poll of current UKIP supporters asking how many voted Yes in the AV referendum.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,917
    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:

    There is one way, and one way only, to get a referendum on the EU, which is to vote Conservative and get a Conservative majority in 2015. It is as simple as that.

    One can only conclude, therefore, that by trying to prevent this happening, UKIP don't want a referendum on the EU and don't want the UK to leave the EU. If they did, they'd be urging their supporters to vote Conservative, and regrouping themselves as a well-organised pressure group campaigning for an Out result in 2017.

    What makes their behaviour even odder is that, on all the other things which they raise as issues (grammar schools, political correctness, immigration, the nanny state, public spending, taxation), the Labour government which they seem to want would take the UK in the exact opposite direction from what they want.

    It is a funny old world, but sadly this particular brand of irrationality could have seriously detrimental effects on the country.

    Many voters want more than a binary choice between Conservative and Labour. UKIP speaks for a lot of them.

    Interesting because that of course was the position that the LDs occupied.

    So what do those non-binary-choice-wanting voters actually want? As we have seen by the scorn poured upon the LDs they manifestly obviously do not want to be successful.

    The LDs in govt you would have thought would be the apogee of their hopes and ambitions, but no.

    At the risk of repeating myself, therefore, UKIP is the current NOTA and, come GE2015, will struggle to get 5% of the vote.

    And their position on Europe, as several including @RichardNabavi have pointed out, is perversely self-defeating.
    Thought you were joking re the 5% claim before so ignored it.. but are you a betting man?
    I am a betting man in that I am waging my entire net worth on the outcome of the next election.

    But I don't like to besmirch the cut and thrust of political debate with dollars and cents.

    I did think about your most recent offer and thought it extraordinarily generous but I eventually declined to take your money offer. :)

    I hope it doesn't diminish the pleasure we take in anticipating the GE2015 results.
    Really?! Well that is impressive!

    All on one result, or building a book?

    I take it you were referring to my 4/6 LD/UKIP, the best odds on offer in the world, that RCS100 said were not generous and invented a new price (7/9?) to try me with.. oh well

    If you are interested in taking EVS about UKIP 6% or less and Ill have UKIP 9% and above with 6.01-8.99% VOID, Ill bet ye!!
    Thanks Sam it is a great offer but I won't take it up.

    Somewhat illogically as far as you're concerned I'm sure, I remain convinced that UKIP will poll <5% at GE2015!
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    Indeed, the Mandela joke arrest is disturbing.

    Indeed the thought police are waiting for your every written and spoken word - a bit like living under the Stasi or KGB or the Red Guard. Of course, suspicion and punishment comes only if your thoughts are deemed politically incorrect. If they are deemed to be politically correct - then insult whom you like.

    The question is: who is the authority of what is politically correct and who sets up their mimics who wish to inculcate children and the weak-minded into repeating their doctrine to intimidate others.

    N Korean brainwashers would be envious of its success.

    Be afraid, be very afraid for our future freedoms.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    This is nonsense. Arrested for making a Mandela joke.

    http://t.co/UzNmUyGxNR

    Bad taste and not very funny. But if that's the bar for arrest, then PB would become very empty indeed ... ;-)
    It's a symptom of the problem I was highlighting yesterday, which Nick Palmer didn't seem to get. The police should have no role in the political process.

    An elected official making a complaint to the police about an unfunny and poor taste joke is just ludicrous. And the police should also have some flexibility to decide how to address things - I am sure a 'don't be such a stupid idiot' talk would be more sensible than arresting, questioning, and submitting a file to the CPS
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,166
    Edin_Rokz said:

    Reading the comments about edumacation and the UK's slipping down the "leagues" makes me want to consider what we want to put our kids through.

    Having watched the report of the education system in South Korea where children from age 4 were put a system where they were in lessons of one kind or another for 11 hours a day to at age 14 to 16, up to 18 hours a day. The result, a group of teenagers given a copy of an GCSE maths exam, completed it in under half the time required with nearly all getting answers 100% correct.

    The kids are permanently tired, their families expect top marks all, repeat ALL the time, then the suicide rate among children is extremely high and is beginning to lead the South Koreans to question what is going on.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25193551

    Similar situation in most of Asia at the moment - do we want to copy this?

    Sounds like Michael Gove's vision of heaven (bar the suicide bit which I suspect he'd find inexplicable).
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    currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171

    taffys said:

    Any labour supporter wanting to defend their record on education has to explain Wales, where a generation of education under that party's unbroken tutelage has resulted in producing the dumbf8cks of Europe. A situation which, according to the labour education minister, isn';t going to change any time soon (in other words not at all).

    Wales raises some interesting issues, two of which challenge conventional wisdom and one which might be explained by it.

    Class -- we know education correlates with class and that Wales is more working class.

    Language -- conventional wisdom is that learning other languages should boost other subjects. If this is true, why no boost from learning Welsh?

    Test rehearsal -- it has been suggested Welsh students are simply unfamiliar with taking tests. Of course, if practice really does make perfect, or at least better, then this may provide a partial explanation for grade inflation -- more tests in schools (including targeted practice at GCSE and A-level questions) would lead to better outcomes even without easier exams or brighter pupils.

    Wales really sums up the tories electoral problems. The Welsh Labour Government is failing miserably yet Labour will be miles ahead in Wales in 2015. If the coalition was performing to the same standard as the Welsh Government Tim would be so excited he might even get out of his chair.

    Unfortunately from the tories perspective there is nothing as funny as a voter, they are happy to vote for failure.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:

    There is one way, and one way only, to get a referendum on the EU, which is to vote Conservative and get a Conservative majority in 2015. It is as simple as that.

    One can only conclude, therefore, that by trying to prevent this happening, UKIP don't want a referendum on the EU and don't want the UK to leave the EU. If they did, they'd be urging their supporters to vote Conservative, and regrouping themselves as a well-organised pressure group campaigning for an Out result in 2017.

    What makes their behaviour even odder is that, on all the other things which they raise as issues (grammar schools, political correctness, immigration, the nanny state, public spending, taxation), the Labour government which they seem to want would take the UK in the exact opposite direction from what they want.

    It is a funny old world, but sadly this particular brand of irrationality could have seriously detrimental effects on the country.

    Many voters want more than a binary choice between Conservative and Labour. UKIP speaks for a lot of them.

    Interesting because that of course was the position that the LDs occupied.

    So what do those non-binary-choice-wanting voters actually want? As we have seen by the scorn poured upon the LDs they manifestly obviously do not want to be successful.

    The LDs in govt you would have thought would be the apogee of their hopes and ambitions, but no.

    At the risk of repeating myself, therefore, UKIP is the current NOTA and, come GE2015, will struggle to get 5% of the vote.

    And their position on Europe, as several including @RichardNabavi have pointed out, is perversely self-defeating.
    Thought you were joking re the 5% claim before so ignored it.. but are you a betting man?
    I am a betting man in that I am waging my entire net worth on the outcome of the next election.

    But I don't like to besmirch the cut and thrust of political debate with dollars and cents.

    I did think about your most recent offer and thought it extraordinarily generous but I eventually declined to take your money offer. :)

    I hope it doesn't diminish the pleasure we take in anticipating the GE2015 results.
    Really?! Well that is impressive!

    All on one result, or building a book?

    I take it you were referring to my 4/6 LD/UKIP, the best odds on offer in the world, that RCS100 said were not generous and invented a new price (7/9?) to try me with.. oh well

    If you are interested in taking EVS about UKIP 6% or less and Ill have UKIP 9% and above with 6.01-8.99% VOID, Ill bet ye!!
    Thanks Sam it is a great offer but I won't take it up.

    Somewhat illogically as far as you're concerned I'm sure, I remain convinced that UKIP will poll <5% at GE2015!</p>
    No problemo
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,166
    currystar said:

    taffys said:

    Any labour supporter wanting to defend their record on education has to explain Wales, where a generation of education under that party's unbroken tutelage has resulted in producing the dumbf8cks of Europe. A situation which, according to the labour education minister, isn';t going to change any time soon (in other words not at all).

    Wales raises some interesting issues, two of which challenge conventional wisdom and one which might be explained by it.

    Class -- we know education correlates with class and that Wales is more working class.

    Language -- conventional wisdom is that learning other languages should boost other subjects. If this is true, why no boost from learning Welsh?

    Test rehearsal -- it has been suggested Welsh students are simply unfamiliar with taking tests. Of course, if practice really does make perfect, or at least better, then this may provide a partial explanation for grade inflation -- more tests in schools (including targeted practice at GCSE and A-level questions) would lead to better outcomes even without easier exams or brighter pupils.

    Wales really sums up the tories electoral problems. The Welsh Labour Government is failing miserably yet Labour will be miles ahead in Wales in 2015. If the coalition was performing to the same standard as the Welsh Government Tim would be so excited he might even get out of his chair.

    Unfortunately from the tories perspective there is nothing as funny as a voter, they are happy to vote for failure.
    The voting system in Wales really helps Labour. Even when they lost a lot of support it sprays in different directions (Plaid, Tory, Lib Dem a little bit of UKIP) but no single party can beat them.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,166
    Labour's low point in Assembly elections, 2007, saw them scrape just over 30%. 21% Tory, 21% Plaid, 12% Lib Dem. Hardly the sign of a population in love with Labour but not sure who else to back. When it comes to a GE, the mind will focus primarily on Labour vs Tory and whatever the misigivings about Eds or the reds, they'll prevail.
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    Edin_Rokz said:

    Reading the comments about edumacation and the UK's slipping down the "leagues" makes me want to consider what we want to put our kids through.

    Having watched the report of the education system in South Korea where children from age 4 were put a system where they were in lessons of one kind or another for 11 hours a day to at age 14 to 16, up to 18 hours a day. The result, a group of teenagers given a copy of an GCSE maths exam, completed it in under half the time required with nearly all getting answers 100% correct.

    The kids are permanently tired, their families expect top marks all, repeat ALL the time, then the suicide rate among children is extremely high and is beginning to lead the South Koreans to question what is going on.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25193551

    Similar situation in most of Asia at the moment - do we want to copy this?

    On the other hand, Finland starts school at age 7 (as every linux geek knows).


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    Mr Dancer, You can't have it both ways, either you have a society in which family expectations requires that their children achieve academic excellence or you do not. It doesn't matter how much you tweak the school and education system or how much money you flush in to the school pot or even how much you denigrate the teaching profession for not being able to turn the proverbial sow's ears in to genius silk purses.

    Your choice.

    Mr. Rokz, it's not a binary choice between what we have and South Korean academic excellence and high stress/suicide rates. We can improve the system without moving to 12 hour schooldays.

This discussion has been closed.