So Italy hopefully appears to have peaked at around 4000 cases in ICU. How many ICU beds do we have in the UK?
I think about 5000 where available, with more being added
We had 7000 at the start with about 80-85% being used....
The problem has always been about capacity....once the health system cannot function everyone else becomes more vulnerable...the 50 year old with a heart attack, the 2 year old with sepsis......aside from Covid...there are many more ways can die without timely treatment...
Yes. Plus the 1500 from the private sector that could be used. We also have > 8000 ventilators now, so fingers crossed that suffices. I'm somewhat encouraged (also, tbh, surprised!) by the latest data from London on new admissions stabilising (maybe even falling); @tyson are your nephews seeing this yet or is it all just too manic to make that sort of assessment?
Do we know how many UK COVID Cases are in ICU at the moemnt?
So Italy hopefully appears to have peaked at around 4000 cases in ICU. How many ICU beds do we have in the UK?
I think about 5000 where available, with more being added
We had 7000 at the start with about 80-85% being used....
The problem has always been about capacity....once the health system cannot function everyone else becomes more vulnerable...the 50 year old with a heart attack, the 2 year old with sepsis......aside from Covid...there are many more ways can die without timely treatment...
Yes. Plus the 1500 from the private sector that could be used. We also have > 8000 ventilators now, so fingers crossed that suffices. I'm somewhat encouraged (also, tbh, surprised!) by the latest data from London on new admissions stabilising (maybe even falling); @tyson are your nephews seeing this yet or is it all just too manic to make that sort of assessment?
Do we know how many UK COVID Cases are in ICU at the moemnt?
No. But in Scotland yesterday 176 of the 3001 cases were in the ICU. If that percentage roughly holds, ~6% of UK patients would be in ICU, so maybe 2460 in ICU at present? But that's a very rough measure...
I don't know what Kier Starmer sounds like. Never heard him interviewed or a speech. Haven't been going out there to avoid him, but equally can't be bothered to seek out something to watch. Never heard RLB either. I've heard Lisa Nandy and Emily Thornberry quite a lot. The latter before the leadership election, the former only during it.
He sounds bunged up, a bit like Ed Miliband or the bloke in the Tunes advert in the 80s.
So Italy hopefully appears to have peaked at around 4000 cases in ICU. How many ICU beds do we have in the UK?
I think about 5000 where available, with more being added
We had 7000 at the start with about 80-85% being used....
The problem has always been about capacity....once the health system cannot function everyone else becomes more vulnerable...the 50 year old with a heart attack, the 2 year old with sepsis......aside from Covid...there are many more ways can die without timely treatment...
Yes. Plus the 1500 from the private sector that could be used. We also have > 8000 ventilators now, so fingers crossed that suffices. I'm somewhat encouraged (also, tbh, surprised!) by the latest data from London on new admissions stabilising (maybe even falling); @tyson are your nephews seeing this yet or is it all just too manic to make that sort of assessment?
I really appreciate your interest....the main issue remains the PPE for one nephew who is working on a respiratory ward but is managing...and still getting some good results with patients
The other nephew is being tested today...he's had all the symptoms and is at home...his girlfriend is being tested today too...but no symptoms..and due to be deployed on a vicious London ward....
I think the NHS capacity is holding up...it has mobilised....and I think it will cope in the next month (everything crossed).....
My sister though lives on a link to St Thomas's.....and she says it is full on emergency vehicles speeding past....I live on a major road to the JR in Oxford...and it's quiet
I don't know what Kier Starmer sounds like. Never heard him interviewed or a speech. Haven't been going out there to avoid him, but equally can't be bothered to seek out something to watch. Never heard RLB either. I've heard Lisa Nandy and Emily Thornberry quite a lot. The latter before the leadership election, the former only during it.
He sounds bunged up, a bit like Ed Miliband or the bloke in the Tunes advert in the 80s.
Keir's speaking voice sounds a bit like a 70's Pythonesque Eric Idle accountant on the radio...
That said...he was voted QC of the year, and headed the CPS. He is of humble origins, has a great back story and is perhaps the most formidable, able and experienced political leader we have seen in generations.....I don't want to big him up...but I think he is the real deal...
Do not forget...he managed to completely demolish the Corbyn project in one quick move, take over the full control of the Labour Party...and do this when many people here though all was lost to the Corbynite mob....
We're living through unprecedented, unpredictable times. So I'm very happy that we now have an intelligent leader of the opposition, who has the country's best interests at heart.
Party politics is rightly taking a backseat at the moment as we face the current crisis, but once some semblance of normality is resumed, there will be big policy choices to be made on our recovery that are firmly in the political sphere. There will be plenty of scope for Starmer to take advantage of this from left-of-centre. This means the Tories can no longer take having an incompetent opposition for granted.
But let's not get carried away. There's plenty of challenges ahead for Starmer before he's seen as a credible alternative PM by the wider country. His choice of Shadow Cabinet will be an interesting first test...
No...I think the nature of their totalitarian regime is that people at a local level wanted to create the impression that it was all under control...and when they realised it wasn't it was too late.....human nature....
So I do believe the bat, the pangolin, the horrific nature of their live markets, their antiquated taste for wildlife..spread this terrible disease into human beings...
That algebraic proof has a divide by zero error in it which is what causes the error to permit 1 to equal 2.
Do you divide by the hypotenuse?
It is obvious the mathematicians are not about.
i is the squareroot of -1. For this triangle, the origin (0,0) is placed at the right angle and the coordinates of the other vertices are (0,i) and (1,0i). To get the LENGTH of the sides you take the complex conjugates which are trivial for (1,0i) as it has no imaginary part.
For the other coordinate, its length |(0,i)| is given by (0, i)(0, -i) = 0 + -1xi^2 = 1
So the length of both sides are 1 and the hypotenuse is sqrt(2) = 1.41(ish)
Unless I'm mistaken, the virus reached France and Germany at about the same time. Today France posted 1,053 deaths and Germany 169. I look forward to the research on why this is.
We might as well lash ourselves to the EU given the other big trading weights are China and the USA. Neither of which has covered themselves in glory to put it mildly during this crisis.
Unless I'm mistaken, the virus reached France and Germany at about the same time. Today France posted 1,053 deaths and Germany 169. I look forward to the research on why this is.
Germany got privet companys involved in testing and there for expanded testing and got this things sort-off isolated it, maybe not quite as well as South Korea but a good effort, nobody else did.
Unless I'm mistaken, the virus reached France and Germany at about the same time. Today France posted 1,053 deaths and Germany 169. I look forward to the research on why this is.
I don't know what Kier Starmer sounds like. Never heard him interviewed or a speech. Haven't been going out there to avoid him, but equally can't be bothered to seek out something to watch. Never heard RLB either. I've heard Lisa Nandy and Emily Thornberry quite a lot. The latter before the leadership election, the former only during it.
He sounds bunged up, a bit like Ed Miliband or the bloke in the Tunes advert in the 80s.
Keir's speaking voice sounds a bit like a 70's Pythonesque Eric Idle accountant on the radio...
That said...he was voted QC of the year, and headed the CPS. He is of humble origins, has a great back story and is perhaps the most formidable, able and experienced political leader we have seen in generations.....I don't want to big him up...but I think he is the real deal...
Do not forget...he managed to completely demolish the Corbyn project in one quick move, take over the full control of the Labour Party...and do this when many people here though all was lost to the Corbynite mob....
I can’t really see it to be honest. I think he is continuity Miliband if Corbyn hadn’t happened, a comfort blanket for Remain types. His position on Brexit and Human Rights lawyer type opinions will alienate the voters lost to Boris at the last GE
So Italy hopefully appears to have peaked at around 4000 cases in ICU. How many ICU beds do we have in the UK?
I think about 5000 where available, with more being added
We had 7000 at the start with about 80-85% being used....
The problem has always been about capacity....once the health system cannot function everyone else becomes more vulnerable...the 50 year old with a heart attack, the 2 year old with sepsis......aside from Covid...there are many more ways can die without timely treatment...
Yes. Plus the 1500 from the private sector that could be used. We also have > 8000 ventilators now, so fingers crossed that suffices. I'm somewhat encouraged (also, tbh, surprised!) by the latest data from London on new admissions stabilising (maybe even falling); @tyson are your nephews seeing this yet or is it all just too manic to make that sort of assessment?
Do we know how many UK COVID Cases are in ICU at the moemnt?
No. But in Scotland yesterday 176 of the 3001 cases were in the ICU. If that percentage roughly holds, ~6% of UK patients would be in ICU, so maybe 2460 in ICU at present? But that's a very rough measure...
You are wasting your time BigG, PT couldn't see any problem with 3000 fans coming over from the Madrid virus hotspot to watch a game of football in Liverpool on March 11th when Coronorvirus was already rampaging across Europe,
I note the Public Health director of Liverpool Council has gone on record a couple of days ago arguing what a mistake it was for Liverpool to have gone on with that game.
What I actually said was that it was the responsibility of the scientists advising the government to advise whether the games should go ahead or not and if they don't think it is safe they should say so.
It's not the job of a football club to make those decisions it's the responsibility of the government to do so.
I also said that if tourists shouldn't be coming from Spain that should apply to all tourists not just Madrid fans.
Liverpool FC could easily have prioritised people's health ahead instead of their own interests and asked for the game to be called off or played behind closed doors but they didn't. Sometimes you have to take responsibility and not find excuses for not acting.
It is hard to look at the world tonight and not be very, very pessimistic.
I feel the opposite. Well, almost.
I stared into the abyss months ago, long before the rest of of you - as you all know. And I saw potentially millions dead in Europe alone.
That is now very unlikely. In Europe at least.
We will beat this, 100.000s will die, but not millions. And maybe society will be better as a result, despite endless individual tragedies.
I am now a flinty eyed realist, even a modest optimist. It’s going to hurt but it is not doomsday. And we could not continue on the path we had chosen.
The government is not receiving any tax and is spending freely. If it stopped tomorrow we would have a very major economic problem. It is not ending tomorrow.
Unless I'm mistaken, the virus reached France and Germany at about the same time. Today France posted 1,053 deaths and Germany 169. I look forward to the research on why this is.
The French figure was again skewed by a large chunk of nursing home deaths being all filed under today's figures. Not sure Germany is including those.
Of course even with that taken into account there's still a large gap - guessing that's a lot more infections rather than a treatment difference.
Unless I'm mistaken, the virus reached France and Germany at about the same time. Today France posted 1,053 deaths and Germany 169. I look forward to the research on why this is.
It is quite bizarre. If I had to point to a large country that would do well it would be France. Excellent health system, quite healthy population, warmer climate.
Yet no.
I wonder how much the ethnic minority factor is skewing stats (in ways I can’t quite work out). The West Midlands is probably the worst hotspot in the UK and there is much speculation this is because of particular demographics. Asian people live in more multigenerational households. Go to mosques, gudwaras, etc. Cf Orthodox Jews in london
But then Berlin should be a German Hotspot, but iits not. Instead that well known ethnivh melting pot Baden-Würtenburg is one of the German hotspots.
No...I think the nature of their totalitarian regime is that people at a local level wanted to create the impression that it was all under control...and when they realised it wasn't it was too late.....human nature....
So I do believe the bat, the pangolin, the horrific nature of their live markets, their antiquated taste for wildlife..spread this terrible disease into human beings...
IIRC the consumption of this fad shit is expensive so likely to be the domain of rich therefore influential people. How will or just will, China approach this?
Unless I'm mistaken, the virus reached France and Germany at about the same time. Today France posted 1,053 deaths and Germany 169. I look forward to the research on why this is.
Germany got privet companys involved in testing and there for expanded testing and got this things sort-off isolated it, maybe not quite as well as South Korea but a good effort, nobody else did.
To be honest, it does not fell like South Korea here.
You begin to wonder whether some hawks want a war to reset the economy.
It's incredible really because my wife works on medical journals and she says the level of transparency from Chinese doctors is really quite incredible...I've posted this a number of times, but people seem to think the Chinese are sitting on a monumental cover up....
I think this crisis is beyond the capacity of some countries to manage...Iran...and there will be many more....
China covered it up at the start...
Don't read too much into transparency in China: everything is subject to almost unlimited political interference.
It is hard to look at the world tonight and not be very, very pessimistic.
I feel the opposite. Well, almost.
I stared into the abyss months ago, long before the rest of of you - as you all know. And I saw potentially millions dead in Europe alone.
That is now very unlikely. In Europe at least.
We will beat this, 100.000s will die, but not millions. And maybe society will be better as a result, despite endless individual tragedies.
I am now a flinty eyed realist, even a modest optimist. It’s going to hurt but it is not doomsday. And we could not continue on the path we had chosen.
You sound like those billboard twerps selling golf equipment or the end of the world. But I agree with you so maybe I'm the twerp.
Unless I'm mistaken, the virus reached France and Germany at about the same time. Today France posted 1,053 deaths and Germany 169. I look forward to the research on why this is.
It is quite bizarre. If I had to point to a large country that would do well it would be France. Excellent health system, quite healthy population, warmer climate.
Yet no.
I wonder how much the ethnic minority factor is skewing stats (in ways I can’t quite work out). The West Midlands is probably the worst hotspot in the UK and there is much speculation this is because of particular demographics. Asian people live in more multigenerational households. Go to mosques, gudwaras, etc. Cf Orthodox Jews in london
Do we have the data by racial and religious demographics, not just by age?
We might as well lash ourselves to the EU given the other big trading weights are China and the USA. Neither of which has covered themselves in glory to put it mildly during this crisis.
What I don't understand is this. Why do we need to lash ourselves to anyone? Cant we just try and develop self sufficiency in large parts of the economy?
I don't know what Kier Starmer sounds like. Never heard him interviewed or a speech. Haven't been going out there to avoid him, but equally can't be bothered to seek out something to watch. Never heard RLB either. I've heard Lisa Nandy and Emily Thornberry quite a lot. The latter before the leadership election, the former only during it.
He sounds bunged up, a bit like Ed Miliband or the bloke in the Tunes advert in the 80s.
Keir's speaking voice sounds a bit like a 70's Pythonesque Eric Idle accountant on the radio...
That said...he was voted QC of the year, and headed the CPS. He is of humble origins, has a great back story and is perhaps the most formidable, able and experienced political leader we have seen in generations.....I don't want to big him up...but I think he is the real deal...
Do not forget...he managed to completely demolish the Corbyn project in one quick move, take over the full control of the Labour Party...and do this when many people here though all was lost to the Corbynite mob....
I can’t really see it to be honest. I think he is continuity Miliband if Corbyn hadn’t happened, a comfort blanket for Remain types. His position on Brexit and Human Rights lawyer type opinions will alienate the voters lost to Boris at the last GE
We might as well lash ourselves to the EU given the other big trading weights are China and the USA. Neither of which has covered themselves in glory to put it mildly during this crisis.
I don't know what Kier Starmer sounds like. Never heard him interviewed or a speech. Haven't been going out there to avoid him, but equally can't be bothered to seek out something to watch. Never heard RLB either. I've heard Lisa Nandy and Emily Thornberry quite a lot. The latter before the leadership election, the former only during it.
He sounds bunged up, a bit like Ed Miliband or the bloke in the Tunes advert in the 80s.
Keir's speaking voice sounds a bit like a 70's Pythonesque Eric Idle accountant on the radio...
That said...he was voted QC of the year, and headed the CPS. He is of humble origins, has a great back story and is perhaps the most formidable, able and experienced political leader we have seen in generations.....I don't want to big him up...but I think he is the real deal...
Do not forget...he managed to completely demolish the Corbyn project in one quick move, take over the full control of the Labour Party...and do this when many people here though all was lost to the Corbynite mob....
I can’t really see it to be honest. I think he is continuity Miliband if Corbyn hadn’t happened, a comfort blanket for Remain types. His position on Brexit and Human Rights lawyer type opinions will alienate the voters lost to Boris at the last GE
Who knows what the fuck he is? He never says anything which doesn't sound like a hedge. We'll see, but don't hold your breath.
That algebraic proof has a divide by zero error in it which is what causes the error to permit 1 to equal 2.
Do you divide by the hypotenuse?
It is obvious the mathematicians are not about.
i is the squareroot of -1. For this triangle, the origin (0,0) is placed at the right angle and the coordinates of the other vertices are (0,i) and (1,0i). To get the LENGTH of the sides you take the complex conjugates which are trivial for (1,0i) as it has no imaginary part.
For the other coordinate, its length |(0,i)| is given by (0, i)(0, -i) = 0 + -1xi^2 = 1
So the length of both sides are 1 and the hypotenuse is sqrt(2) = 1.41(ish)
QED
Proof that mathematicians have better things to do on a Saturday night even in the Corona Era. But fear not, one of us is back!
This is a counter example of Pythagoras' Theorem. You are right that i=sqrt(-1), but the sum of the squares of the two sides is i^2+1^2=-1+1=0. But the length of the hypotenuse is sqrt(2) not zero.
How "can that be?" you ask incredulously. As every decent mathematician knows you need to specify your conditions before presenting a theorem. Pythagoras' theroemm works in the R^2 plane but not in the complex plane. It also does not work on a curved surface such as on the surface of the Earth.
We might as well lash ourselves to the EU given the other big trading weights are China and the USA. Neither of which has covered themselves in glory to put it mildly during this crisis.
What I don't understand is this. Why do we need to lash ourselves to anyone? Cant we just try and develop self sufficiency in large parts of the economy?
It depends how you define the 'self'. It's easiest if you start with a definition that is capable of achieving your objectives.
Unless I'm mistaken, the virus reached France and Germany at about the same time. Today France posted 1,053 deaths and Germany 169. I look forward to the research on why this is.
It is quite bizarre. If I had to point to a large country that would do well it would be France. Excellent health system, quite healthy population, warmer climate.
Yet no.
I wonder how much the ethnic minority factor is skewing stats (in ways I can’t quite work out). The West Midlands is probably the worst hotspot in the UK and there is much speculation this is because of particular demographics. Asian people live in more multigenerational households. Go to mosques, gudwaras, etc. Cf Orthodox Jews in london
Do we have the data by racial and religious demographics, not just by age?
There was some talk a week ago of 25% of victims being Muslim and 5% being Jewish.
And there were the doctors and nurses who had died - 4/5 of them seemed to be Asian Muslim.
The oldest rule in politics. If things get really, really bad, blame foreigners.
Quite. The Chinese Government are absolutely blameless in all of this.
We should be writing them a thank you letter.
No of course not, but neither do we have much to gain from bellicose language and posturing. The very last thing we need.
I think what everyone should be focussed on is massive economic and political pressure for China to put their house in order.
Long term I think supporting the demise of the Chinese Communist Party and a transition to democracy in China should be the primary Western policy goal.
You begin to wonder whether some hawks want a war to reset the economy.
It's incredible really because my wife works on medical journals and she says the level of transparency from Chinese doctors is really quite incredible...I've posted this a number of times, but people seem to think the Chinese are sitting on a monumental cover up....
I think this crisis is beyond the capacity of some countries to manage...Iran...and there will be many more....
China covered it up at the start...
Don't read too much into transparency in China: everything is subject to almost unlimited political interference.
I simply do not find it credible that China has had 1000 less deaths throughout this whole crisis than the UK has had already.
China really needs to be given a route toward redemption - this should, if we are clever, involve some form of financial endowment. As opposed to being condemned and reparations demanded,which won't work. They are not a defeated aggressor - any demands are likely to harden their resistance.
Unless I'm mistaken, the virus reached France and Germany at about the same time. Today France posted 1,053 deaths and Germany 169. I look forward to the research on why this is.
The French figure was again skewed by a large chunk of nursing home deaths being all filed under today's figures. Not sure Germany is including those.
Of course even with that taken into account there's still a large gap - guessing that's a lot more infections rather than a treatment difference.
Comparisons are being made using different data whilst pretending it's the same.
The oldest rule in politics. If things get really, really bad, blame foreigners.
Quite. The Chinese Government are absolutely blameless in all of this.
We should be writing them a thank you letter.
No of course not, but neither do we have much to gain from bellicose language and posturing. The very last thing we need.
I think what everyone should be focussed on is massive economic and political pressure for China to put their house in order.
Long term I think supporting the demise of the Chinese Communist Party and a transition to democracy in China should be the primary Western policy goal.
Regime change? Ok. Since we have less than no money, how are we going to achieve this through economic means?
You begin to wonder whether some hawks want a war to reset the economy.
It's incredible really because my wife works on medical journals and she says the level of transparency from Chinese doctors is really quite incredible...I've posted this a number of times, but people seem to think the Chinese are sitting on a monumental cover up....
I think this crisis is beyond the capacity of some countries to manage...Iran...and there will be many more....
China covered it up at the start...
Don't read too much into transparency in China: everything is subject to almost unlimited political interference.
China apologists are probably motivated by their pockets.
Unless I'm mistaken, the virus reached France and Germany at about the same time. Today France posted 1,053 deaths and Germany 169. I look forward to the research on why this is.
It is quite bizarre. If I had to point to a large country that would do well it would be France. Excellent health system, quite healthy population, warmer climate.
Yet no.
I wonder how much the ethnic minority factor is skewing stats (in ways I can’t quite work out). The West Midlands is probably the worst hotspot in the UK and there is much speculation this is because of particular demographics. Asian people live in more multigenerational households. Go to mosques, gudwaras, etc. Cf Orthodox Jews in london
Do we have the data by racial and religious demographics, not just by age?
There was some talk a week ago of 25% of victims being Muslim and 5% being Jewish.
And there were the doctors and nurses who had died - 4/5 of them seemed to be Asian Muslim.
Didn't Germany begin targeted testing very early? If that is the explanation, they benefited partly by luck as well as judgement.
Unless I'm mistaken, the virus reached France and Germany at about the same time. Today France posted 1,053 deaths and Germany 169. I look forward to the research on why this is.
It is quite bizarre. If I had to point to a large country that would do well it would be France. Excellent health system, quite healthy population, warmer climate.
Yet no.
I wonder how much the ethnic minority factor is skewing stats (in ways I can’t quite work out). The West Midlands is probably the worst hotspot in the UK and there is much speculation this is because of particular demographics. Asian people live in more multigenerational households. Go to mosques, gudwaras, etc. Cf Orthodox Jews in london
Do we have the data by racial and religious demographics, not just by age?
There was some talk a week ago of 25% of victims being Muslim and 5% being Jewish.
And there were the doctors and nurses who had died - 4/5 of them seemed to be Asian Muslim.
Didn't Germany begin targeted testing very early? If that is the explanation, they benefited partly by luck as well as judgement.
Germans don’t do luck. They do have a scientist in charge.
Unless I'm mistaken, the virus reached France and Germany at about the same time. Today France posted 1,053 deaths and Germany 169. I look forward to the research on why this is.
It is quite bizarre. If I had to point to a large country that would do well it would be France. Excellent health system, quite healthy population, warmer climate.
Yet no.
I wonder how much the ethnic minority factor is skewing stats (in ways I can’t quite work out). The West Midlands is probably the worst hotspot in the UK and there is much speculation this is because of particular demographics. Asian people live in more multigenerational households. Go to mosques, gudwaras, etc. Cf Orthodox Jews in london
Do we have the data by racial and religious demographics, not just by age?
There was some talk a week ago of 25% of victims being Muslim and 5% being Jewish.
And there were the doctors and nurses who had died - 4/5 of them seemed to be Asian Muslim.
Didn't Germany begin targeted testing very early? If that is the explanation, they benefited partly by luck as well as judgement.
Germans don’t do luck. They do have a scientist in charge.
We might as well lash ourselves to the EU given the other big trading weights are China and the USA. Neither of which has covered themselves in glory to put it mildly during this crisis.
What I don't understand is this. Why do we need to lash ourselves to anyone? Cant we just try and develop self sufficiency in large parts of the economy?
We deal with nations we trust. Whatever you think of Trump, China or USA is not daddy or chips.
Unless I'm mistaken, the virus reached France and Germany at about the same time. Today France posted 1,053 deaths and Germany 169. I look forward to the research on why this is.
It is quite bizarre. If I had to point to a large country that would do well it would be France. Excellent health system, quite healthy population, warmer climate.
Yet no.
I wonder how much the ethnic minority factor is skewing stats (in ways I can’t quite work out). The West Midlands is probably the worst hotspot in the UK and there is much speculation this is because of particular demographics. Asian people live in more multigenerational households. Go to mosques, gudwaras, etc. Cf Orthodox Jews in london
I also think it's a factor. Did some Googling about it today and came across this:
The coronavirus crisis is giving fresh life to an old conspiracy theory about a totalitarian world government seeking to kill most of the world’s population as part of a United Nations plot dating back to 1992.
A BuzzFeed News analysis of Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and Instagram shows a sharp uptick in posts mentioning "Agenda 21" in recent weeks as the coronavirus crisis has taken hold around the world, although posts are often removed for breaching the platforms’ rules.
These posts and videos often link Agenda 21 with other tried and tested tropes of anti-government conspiracy theories, including vaccinations, Bill Gates, George Soros and 5G networks,
The oldest rule in politics. If things get really, really bad, blame foreigners.
Quite. The Chinese Government are absolutely blameless in all of this.
We should be writing them a thank you letter.
No of course not, but neither do we have much to gain from bellicose language and posturing. The very last thing we need.
I think what everyone should be focussed on is massive economic and political pressure for China to put their house in order.
Long term I think supporting the demise of the Chinese Communist Party and a transition to democracy in China should be the primary Western policy goal.
Regime change? Ok. Since we have less than no money, how are we going to achieve this through economic means?
If China continues as is, we will face an even WORSE pandemic in the future (if we as humanity survive this one).
The very least we can do is demand that they close all wet/wildlife markets. And show transparency in health reporting. With foreign and neutral assessment.
If they find this humiliating and refuse to comply (really, they can’t stop eating BATS?) then fuck them, we can do without them. We will be a lot poorer but we won’t die from another Chinese plague.
These markets have been around forever. Humans historically eat and fuck anything. I am not sure I buy the market origin story.
Meanwhile, the wildlife roaming the U.K. is escalating.
You begin to wonder whether some hawks want a war to reset the economy.
It's incredible really because my wife works on medical journals and she says the level of transparency from Chinese doctors is really quite incredible...I've posted this a number of times, but people seem to think the Chinese are sitting on a monumental cover up....
I think this crisis is beyond the capacity of some countries to manage...Iran...and there will be many more....
China covered it up at the start...
Don't read too much into transparency in China: everything is subject to almost unlimited political interference.
I simply do not find it credible that China has had 1000 less deaths throughout this whole crisis than the UK has had already.
I think there's a reason you don't find it credible.
Unless I'm mistaken, the virus reached France and Germany at about the same time. Today France posted 1,053 deaths and Germany 169. I look forward to the research on why this is.
It is quite bizarre. If I had to point to a large country that would do well it would be France. Excellent health system, quite healthy population, warmer climate.
Yet no.
I wonder how much the ethnic minority factor is skewing stats (in ways I can’t quite work out). The West Midlands is probably the worst hotspot in the UK and there is much speculation this is because of particular demographics. Asian people live in more multigenerational households. Go to mosques, gudwaras, etc. Cf Orthodox Jews in london
Do we have the data by racial and religious demographics, not just by age?
There was some talk a week ago of 25% of victims being Muslim and 5% being Jewish.
And there were the doctors and nurses who had died - 4/5 of them seemed to be Asian Muslim.
Didn't Germany begin targeted testing very early? If that is the explanation, they benefited partly by luck as well as judgement.
Weren't many of the early German infections among young, healthy skiers ?
If there is materially different infection rates within different communities within the same country then it will greatly matter where the initial infections occur.
This is a counter example of Pythagoras' Theorem. You are right that i=sqrt(-1), but the sum of the squares of the two sides is i^2+1^2=-1+1=0. But the length of the hypotenuse is sqrt(2) not zero.
How "can that be?" you ask incredulously. As every decent mathematician knows you need to specify your conditions before presenting a theorem. Pythagoras' theroemm works in the R^2 plane but not in the complex plane. It also does not work on a curved surface such as on the surface of the Earth.
Good night and sweet dreams.
The error in this example is that the length of a line from the origin to a point Z in the complex plane is given by the complex conjugate |Z| = Z Z* and not by squaring the coordinate.
Once the scalar lengths are calculated, Pythagoras can be applied as long as the reference system is flat in a Euclidean sense.
The oldest rule in politics. If things get really, really bad, blame foreigners.
Quite. The Chinese Government are absolutely blameless in all of this.
We should be writing them a thank you letter.
No of course not, but neither do we have much to gain from bellicose language and posturing. The very last thing we need.
I think what everyone should be focussed on is massive economic and political pressure for China to put their house in order.
Long term I think supporting the demise of the Chinese Communist Party and a transition to democracy in China should be the primary Western policy goal.
Regime change? Ok. Since we have less than no money, how are we going to achieve this through economic means?
We need to understand that there is a real ideological competition between political systems, and hold ourselves to higher standards.
The oldest rule in politics. If things get really, really bad, blame foreigners.
Quite. The Chinese Government are absolutely blameless in all of this.
We should be writing them a thank you letter.
No of course not, but neither do we have much to gain from bellicose language and posturing. The very last thing we need.
I think what everyone should be focussed on is massive economic and political pressure for China to put their house in order.
Long term I think supporting the demise of the Chinese Communist Party and a transition to democracy in China should be the primary Western policy goal.
Regime change? Ok. Since we have less than no money, how are we going to achieve this through economic means?
We need to understand that there is a real ideological competition between political systems, and hold ourselves to higher standards.
I don't know what Kier Starmer sounds like. Never heard him interviewed or a speech. Haven't been going out there to avoid him, but equally can't be bothered to seek out something to watch. Never heard RLB either. I've heard Lisa Nandy and Emily Thornberry quite a lot. The latter before the leadership election, the former only during it.
He sounds bunged up, a bit like Ed Miliband or the bloke in the Tunes advert in the 80s.
Keir's speaking voice sounds a bit like a 70's Pythonesque Eric Idle accountant on the radio...
That said...he was voted QC of the year, and headed the CPS. He is of humble origins, has a great back story and is perhaps the most formidable, able and experienced political leader we have seen in generations.....I don't want to big him up...but I think he is the real deal...
Do not forget...he managed to completely demolish the Corbyn project in one quick move, take over the full control of the Labour Party...and do this when many people here though all was lost to the Corbynite mob....
Just watched the fourth or fifth news story on BBC1 News. Laura's analysis of Starmer's victory and the future of the Labour Party on his watch. To say she is underwhelmed would be a distinct understatement. And earlier in the day, in the midst of this pandemic, I saw Starmer's win and the back of Corbyn as a tiny glimmer of hope for the future.
You begin to wonder whether some hawks want a war to reset the economy.
It's incredible really because my wife works on medical journals and she says the level of transparency from Chinese doctors is really quite incredible...I've posted this a number of times, but people seem to think the Chinese are sitting on a monumental cover up....
I think this crisis is beyond the capacity of some countries to manage...Iran...and there will be many more....
China covered it up at the start...
Don't read too much into transparency in China: everything is subject to almost unlimited political interference.
I simply do not find it credible that China has had 1000 less deaths throughout this whole crisis than the UK has had already.
I think there's a reason you don't find it credible.
That reason is the stuff leaking out of Wuhan that there have been 40,000 deaths there alone, a French documentary highlighted it a couple of days ago,
Unless I'm mistaken, the virus reached France and Germany at about the same time. Today France posted 1,053 deaths and Germany 169. I look forward to the research on why this is.
It is quite bizarre. If I had to point to a large country that would do well it would be France. Excellent health system, quite healthy population, warmer climate.
Yet no.
I wonder how much the ethnic minority factor is skewing stats (in ways I can’t quite work out). The West Midlands is probably the worst hotspot in the UK and there is much speculation this is because of particular demographics. Asian people live in more multigenerational households. Go to mosques, gudwaras, etc. Cf Orthodox Jews in london
Do we have the data by racial and religious demographics, not just by age?
There was some talk a week ago of 25% of victims being Muslim and 5% being Jewish.
And there were the doctors and nurses who had died - 4/5 of them seemed to be Asian Muslim.
Didn't Germany begin targeted testing very early? If that is the explanation, they benefited partly by luck as well as judgement.
Any half decent targeting must be better than no targeting and if it's not substantially better then you sack the bloke responsible for targeting.
I don't know what Kier Starmer sounds like. Never heard him interviewed or a speech. Haven't been going out there to avoid him, but equally can't be bothered to seek out something to watch. Never heard RLB either. I've heard Lisa Nandy and Emily Thornberry quite a lot. The latter before the leadership election, the former only during it.
He sounds bunged up, a bit like Ed Miliband or the bloke in the Tunes advert in the 80s.
Unless I'm mistaken, the virus reached France and Germany at about the same time. Today France posted 1,053 deaths and Germany 169. I look forward to the research on why this is.
It is quite bizarre. If I had to point to a large country that would do well it would be France. Excellent health system, quite healthy population, warmer climate.
Yet no.
I wonder how much the ethnic minority factor is skewing stats (in ways I can’t quite work out). The West Midlands is probably the worst hotspot in the UK and there is much speculation this is because of particular demographics. Asian people live in more multigenerational households. Go to mosques, gudwaras, etc. Cf Orthodox Jews in london
I also think it's a factor. Did some Googling about it today and came across this:
Unless I'm mistaken, the virus reached France and Germany at about the same time. Today France posted 1,053 deaths and Germany 169. I look forward to the research on why this is.
It is quite bizarre. If I had to point to a large country that would do well it would be France. Excellent health system, quite healthy population, warmer climate.
Yet no.
I wonder how much the ethnic minority factor is skewing stats (in ways I can’t quite work out). The West Midlands is probably the worst hotspot in the UK and there is much speculation this is because of particular demographics. Asian people live in more multigenerational households. Go to mosques, gudwaras, etc. Cf Orthodox Jews in london
I also think it's a factor. Did some Googling about it today and came across this:
Unless I'm mistaken, the virus reached France and Germany at about the same time. Today France posted 1,053 deaths and Germany 169. I look forward to the research on why this is.
It is quite bizarre. If I had to point to a large country that would do well it would be France. Excellent health system, quite healthy population, warmer climate.
Yet no.
I wonder how much the ethnic minority factor is skewing stats (in ways I can’t quite work out). The West Midlands is probably the worst hotspot in the UK and there is much speculation this is because of particular demographics. Asian people live in more multigenerational households. Go to mosques, gudwaras, etc. Cf Orthodox Jews in london
Do we have the data by racial and religious demographics, not just by age?
There was some talk a week ago of 25% of victims being Muslim and 5% being Jewish.
And there were the doctors and nurses who had died - 4/5 of them seemed to be Asian Muslim.
Didn't Germany begin targeted testing very early? If that is the explanation, they benefited partly by luck as well as judgement.
Weren't many of the early German infections among young, healthy skiers ?
If there is materially different infection rates within different communities within the same country then it will greatly matter where the initial infections occur.
And random sampling might not pick this up.
But the apparent youth of early German infections is just a function of Germany doing a lot of early testing. If you don't test much more than people showing up in hospitals with severe symptoms, then of course you're going to miss most of the young healthy people who got infected.
Unless I'm mistaken, the virus reached France and Germany at about the same time. Today France posted 1,053 deaths and Germany 169. I look forward to the research on why this is.
It is quite bizarre. If I had to point to a large country that would do well it would be France. Excellent health system, quite healthy population, warmer climate.
Yet no.
I wonder how much the ethnic minority factor is skewing stats (in ways I can’t quite work out). The West Midlands is probably the worst hotspot in the UK and there is much speculation this is because of particular demographics. Asian people live in more multigenerational households. Go to mosques, gudwaras, etc. Cf Orthodox Jews in london
I also think it's a factor. Did some Googling about it today and came across this:
The oldest rule in politics. If things get really, really bad, blame foreigners.
Quite. The Chinese Government are absolutely blameless in all of this.
We should be writing them a thank you letter.
No of course not, but neither do we have much to gain from bellicose language and posturing. The very last thing we need.
I think what everyone should be focussed on is massive economic and political pressure for China to put their house in order.
Long term I think supporting the demise of the Chinese Communist Party and a transition to democracy in China should be the primary Western policy goal.
Regime change? Ok. Since we have less than no money, how are we going to achieve this through economic means?
If China continues as is, we will face an even WORSE pandemic in the future (if we as humanity survive this one).
The very least we can do is demand that they close all wet/wildlife markets. And show transparency in health reporting. With foreign and neutral assessment.
If they find this humiliating and refuse to comply (really, they can’t stop eating BATS?) then fuck them, we can do without them. We will be a lot poorer but we won’t die from another Chinese plague.
These markets have been around forever. Humans historically eat and fuck anything. I am not sure I buy the market origin story.
Meanwhile, the wildlife roaming the U.K. is escalating.
Unless I'm mistaken, the virus reached France and Germany at about the same time. Today France posted 1,053 deaths and Germany 169. I look forward to the research on why this is.
It is quite bizarre. If I had to point to a large country that would do well it would be France. Excellent health system, quite healthy population, warmer climate.
Yet no.
I wonder how much the ethnic minority factor is skewing stats (in ways I can’t quite work out). The West Midlands is probably the worst hotspot in the UK and there is much speculation this is because of particular demographics. Asian people live in more multigenerational households. Go to mosques, gudwaras, etc. Cf Orthodox Jews in london
I also think it's a factor. Did some Googling about it today and came across this:
Apologies if this Spiegel piece (in English!) has been discussed to death on here but it's a must-read. Testing testing testing.... Interesting how in Britain the complaint is "our testing strategy is dysfunctional, why can't we be like Germany" while in Germany the complaint from some corners at least is "our testing strategy is dysfunctional, why can't we be like South Korea"...
FPT but if you're discussing German testing it is worth reading the Spiegel piece.
German system has some serious flaws, for one thing it isn't clear they even are testing 500k a week (yes I'm going to do that Darrell Huff playbook trick of quoting the German figure as per week so it looks immensely bigger than a UK figure usually quoted per day) as it seems nobody really knows what's happening due to the decentralisation. May well be several times smaller than that apparently and not orders of magnitudes above the UK after all. It is also clear not all the testing there is high quality and much of it is being badly targeted at the "worried well". They'll also be getting an awful lot of false negatives and that's potentially very dangerous indeed - UK system of getting people to self-isolate "just in case" their cough is actually COVID may well be better in some respects than going for a test in which a substantial proportion of infected people test negative then resume daily activities.
To be clear I'm not saying the German system has no advantages over the UK one or that there's nothing we could learn from it but I do wonder how many people are just impressed by the quoted numbers. It isn't even obvious that it's their testing system which is responsible for their apparent (at least so far, and long may it remain so) low death count - what's being done in South Korea seems a more coherent overall system.
The oldest rule in politics. If things get really, really bad, blame foreigners.
Quite. The Chinese Government are absolutely blameless in all of this.
We should be writing them a thank you letter.
No of course not, but neither do we have much to gain from bellicose language and posturing. The very last thing we need.
I think what everyone should be focussed on is massive economic and political pressure for China to put their house in order.
Long term I think supporting the demise of the Chinese Communist Party and a transition to democracy in China should be the primary Western policy goal.
Regime change? Ok. Since we have less than no money, how are we going to achieve this through economic means?
If China continues as is, we will face an even WORSE pandemic in the future (if we as humanity survive this one).
The very least we can do is demand that they close all wet/wildlife markets. And show transparency in health reporting. With foreign and neutral assessment.
If they find this humiliating and refuse to comply (really, they can’t stop eating BATS?) then fuck them, we can do without them. We will be a lot poorer but we won’t die from another Chinese plague.
These markets have been around forever. Humans historically eat and fuck anything. I am not sure I buy the market origin story.
Meanwhile, the wildlife roaming the U.K. is escalating.
You begin to wonder whether some hawks want a war to reset the economy.
It's incredible really because my wife works on medical journals and she says the level of transparency from Chinese doctors is really quite incredible...I've posted this a number of times, but people seem to think the Chinese are sitting on a monumental cover up....
I think this crisis is beyond the capacity of some countries to manage...Iran...and there will be many more....
China covered it up at the start...
Don't read too much into transparency in China: everything is subject to almost unlimited political interference.
I simply do not find it credible that China has had 1000 less deaths throughout this whole crisis than the UK has had already.
I think there's a reason you don't find it credible.
That reason is the stuff leaking out of Wuhan that there have been 40,000 deaths there alone, a French documentary highlighted it a couple of days ago,
We'll never know the true number but you can be sure it will be a significant multiple of the "official" number.
Unless I'm mistaken, the virus reached France and Germany at about the same time. Today France posted 1,053 deaths and Germany 169. I look forward to the research on why this is.
It is quite bizarre. If I had to point to a large country that would do well it would be France. Excellent health system, quite healthy population, warmer climate.
Yet no.
I wonder how much the ethnic minority factor is skewing stats (in ways I can’t quite work out). The West Midlands is probably the worst hotspot in the UK and there is much speculation this is because of particular demographics. Asian people live in more multigenerational households. Go to mosques, gudwaras, etc. Cf Orthodox Jews in london
I also think it's a factor. Did some Googling about it today and came across this:
You begin to wonder whether some hawks want a war to reset the economy.
It's incredible really because my wife works on medical journals and she says the level of transparency from Chinese doctors is really quite incredible...I've posted this a number of times, but people seem to think the Chinese are sitting on a monumental cover up....
I think this crisis is beyond the capacity of some countries to manage...Iran...and there will be many more....
China covered it up at the start...
Don't read too much into transparency in China: everything is subject to almost unlimited political interference.
I simply do not find it credible that China has had 1000 less deaths throughout this whole crisis than the UK has had already.
I think there's a reason you don't find it credible.
That reason is the stuff leaking out of Wuhan that there have been 40,000 deaths there alone, a French documentary highlighted it a couple of days ago,
We'll never know the true number but you can be sure it will be a significant multiple of the "official" number.
Given that even Mr Keqiang doesn't pay any attention to the official GDP figures, I see no reason to pay any attention to any of CHina's figures on this.
Unless I'm mistaken, the virus reached France and Germany at about the same time. Today France posted 1,053 deaths and Germany 169. I look forward to the research on why this is.
It is quite bizarre. If I had to point to a large country that would do well it would be France. Excellent health system, quite healthy population, warmer climate.
Yet no.
I wonder how much the ethnic minority factor is skewing stats (in ways I can’t quite work out). The West Midlands is probably the worst hotspot in the UK and there is much speculation this is because of particular demographics. Asian people live in more multigenerational households. Go to mosques, gudwaras, etc. Cf Orthodox Jews in london
I also think it's a factor. Did some Googling about it today and came across this:
Unless I'm mistaken, the virus reached France and Germany at about the same time. Today France posted 1,053 deaths and Germany 169. I look forward to the research on why this is.
It is quite bizarre. If I had to point to a large country that would do well it would be France. Excellent health system, quite healthy population, warmer climate.
Yet no.
I wonder how much the ethnic minority factor is skewing stats (in ways I can’t quite work out). The West Midlands is probably the worst hotspot in the UK and there is much speculation this is because of particular demographics. Asian people live in more multigenerational households. Go to mosques, gudwaras, etc. Cf Orthodox Jews in london
I also think it's a factor. Did some Googling about it today and came across this:
The oldest rule in politics. If things get really, really bad, blame foreigners.
Quite. The Chinese Government are absolutely blameless in all of this.
We should be writing them a thank you letter.
No of course not, but neither do we have much to gain from bellicose language and posturing. The very last thing we need.
I think what everyone should be focussed on is massive economic and political pressure for China to put their house in order.
Long term I think supporting the demise of the Chinese Communist Party and a transition to democracy in China should be the primary Western policy goal.
Regime change? Ok. Since we have less than no money, how are we going to achieve this through economic means?
If China continues as is, we will face an even WORSE pandemic in the future (if we as humanity survive this one).
The very least we can do is demand that they close all wet/wildlife markets. And show transparency in health reporting. With foreign and neutral assessment.
If they find this humiliating and refuse to comply (really, they can’t stop eating BATS?) then fuck them, we can do without them. We will be a lot poorer but we won’t die from another Chinese plague.
These markets have been around forever. Humans historically eat and fuck anything. I am not sure I buy the market origin story.
Meanwhile, the wildlife roaming the U.K. is escalating.
The oldest rule in politics. If things get really, really bad, blame foreigners.
Quite. The Chinese Government are absolutely blameless in all of this.
We should be writing them a thank you letter.
No of course not, but neither do we have much to gain from bellicose language and posturing. The very last thing we need.
I think what everyone should be focussed on is massive economic and political pressure for China to put their house in order.
Long term I think supporting the demise of the Chinese Communist Party and a transition to democracy in China should be the primary Western policy goal.
Regime change? Ok. Since we have less than no money, how are we going to achieve this through economic means?
If China continues as is, we will face an even WORSE pandemic in the future (if we as humanity survive this one).
The very least we can do is demand that they close all wet/wildlife markets. And show transparency in health reporting. With foreign and neutral assessment.
If they find this humiliating and refuse to comply (really, they can’t stop eating BATS?) then fuck them, we can do without them. We will be a lot poorer but we won’t die from another Chinese plague.
These markets have been around forever. Humans historically eat and fuck anything. I am not sure I buy the market origin story.
Meanwhile, the wildlife roaming the U.K. is escalating.
You begin to wonder whether some hawks want a war to reset the economy.
It's incredible really because my wife works on medical journals and she says the level of transparency from Chinese doctors is really quite incredible...I've posted this a number of times, but people seem to think the Chinese are sitting on a monumental cover up....
I think this crisis is beyond the capacity of some countries to manage...Iran...and there will be many more....
China covered it up at the start...
Don't read too much into transparency in China: everything is subject to almost unlimited political interference.
I simply do not find it credible that China has had 1000 less deaths throughout this whole crisis than the UK has had already.
I think there's a reason you don't find it credible.
That reason is the stuff leaking out of Wuhan that there have been 40,000 deaths there alone, a French documentary highlighted it a couple of days ago,
We'll never know the true number but you can be sure it will be a significant multiple of the "official" number.
Given that even Mr Keqiang doesn't pay any attention to the official GDP figures, I see no reason to pay any attention to any of CHina's figures on this.
Me neither but people do and they constitute a line on many graphs.
Unless I'm mistaken, the virus reached France and Germany at about the same time. Today France posted 1,053 deaths and Germany 169. I look forward to the research on why this is.
It is quite bizarre. If I had to point to a large country that would do well it would be France. Excellent health system, quite healthy population, warmer climate.
Yet no.
I wonder how much the ethnic minority factor is skewing stats (in ways I can’t quite work out). The West Midlands is probably the worst hotspot in the UK and there is much speculation this is because of particular demographics. Asian people live in more multigenerational households. Go to mosques, gudwaras, etc. Cf Orthodox Jews in london
Do we have the data by racial and religious demographics, not just by age?
There was some talk a week ago of 25% of victims being Muslim and 5% being Jewish.
And there were the doctors and nurses who had died - 4/5 of them seemed to be Asian Muslim.
Didn't Germany begin targeted testing very early? If that is the explanation, they benefited partly by luck as well as judgement.
Weren't many of the early German infections among young, healthy skiers ?
If there is materially different infection rates within different communities within the same country then it will greatly matter where the initial infections occur.
And random sampling might not pick this up.
Not skiers but carnivalists. In the second cluster forming there was a carnival party infected by a superspreader. Among the 30 people affected the average age was a tad below 40, that skewed the earliest numbers downwards.
Since then, testing here has placed a greater emphasis on contact tracing, compared to the UK where resource scarcity has demanded to concentrate testing on symptomatic + risk factor (often age), thus, missing much of asymptomatic community transmission, presumably younger aged.
A couple of days ago the average age of identified cases was 47 here and still above 60 in the UK.
Unless I'm mistaken, the virus reached France and Germany at about the same time. Today France posted 1,053 deaths and Germany 169. I look forward to the research on why this is.
It is quite bizarre. If I had to point to a large country that would do well it would be France. Excellent health system, quite healthy population, warmer climate.
Yet no.
I wonder how much the ethnic minority factor is skewing stats (in ways I can’t quite work out). The West Midlands is probably the worst hotspot in the UK and there is much speculation this is because of particular demographics. Asian people live in more multigenerational households. Go to mosques, gudwaras, etc. Cf Orthodox Jews in london
Do we have the data by racial and religious demographics, not just by age?
There was some talk a week ago of 25% of victims being Muslim and 5% being Jewish.
And there were the doctors and nurses who had died - 4/5 of them seemed to be Asian Muslim.
Didn't Germany begin targeted testing very early? If that is the explanation, they benefited partly by luck as well as judgement.
Weren't many of the early German infections among young, healthy skiers ?
If there is materially different infection rates within different communities within the same country then it will greatly matter where the initial infections occur.
And random sampling might not pick this up.
Not skiers but carnivalists. In the second cluster forming there was a carnival party infected by a superspreader. Among the 30 people affected the average age was a tad below 40, that skewed the earliest numbers downwards.
Since then, testing here has placed a greater emphasis on contact tracing, compared to the UK where resource scarcity has demanded to concentrate testing on symptomatic + risk factor (often age), thus, missing much of asymptomatic community transmission, presumably younger aged.
A couple of days ago the average age of identified cases was 47 here and still above 60 in the UK.
Is there any data as to how many of the infected were asymptomatic ?
The oldest rule in politics. If things get really, really bad, blame foreigners.
Quite. The Chinese Government are absolutely blameless in all of this.
We should be writing them a thank you letter.
No of course not, but neither do we have much to gain from bellicose language and posturing. The very last thing we need.
I think what everyone should be focussed on is massive economic and political pressure for China to put their house in order.
Long term I think supporting the demise of the Chinese Communist Party and a transition to democracy in China should be the primary Western policy goal.
Regime change? Ok. Since we have less than no money, how are we going to achieve this through economic means?
If China continues as is, we will face an even WORSE pandemic in the future (if we as humanity survive this one).
The very least we can do is demand that they close all wet/wildlife markets. And show transparency in health reporting. With foreign and neutral assessment.
If they find this humiliating and refuse to comply (really, they can’t stop eating BATS?) then fuck them, we can do without them. We will be a lot poorer but we won’t die from another Chinese plague.
These markets have been around forever. Humans historically eat and fuck anything. I am not sure I buy the market origin story.
Meanwhile, the wildlife roaming the U.K. is escalating.
I don't know what Kier Starmer sounds like. Never heard him interviewed or a speech. Haven't been going out there to avoid him, but equally can't be bothered to seek out something to watch. Never heard RLB either. I've heard Lisa Nandy and Emily Thornberry quite a lot. The latter before the leadership election, the former only during it.
He sounds bunged up, a bit like Ed Miliband or the bloke in the Tunes advert in the 80s.
Keir's speaking voice sounds a bit like a 70's Pythonesque Eric Idle accountant on the radio...
That said...he was voted QC of the year, and headed the CPS. He is of humble origins, has a great back story and is perhaps the most formidable, able and experienced political leader we have seen in generations.....I don't want to big him up...but I think he is the real deal...
Do not forget...he managed to completely demolish the Corbyn project in one quick move, take over the full control of the Labour Party...and do this when many people here though all was lost to the Corbynite mob....
Just watched the fourth or fifth news story on BBC1 News. Laura's analysis of Starmer's victory and the future of the Labour Party on his watch. To say she is underwhelmed would be a distinct understatement. And earlier in the day, in the midst of this pandemic, I saw Starmer's win and the back of Corbyn as a tiny glimmer of hope for the future.
Ah well, back to lockdown reality.
Laura K is normally so enthusiastic about Labour, too...
The oldest rule in politics. If things get really, really bad, blame foreigners.
Quite. The Chinese Government are absolutely blameless in all of this.
We should be writing them a thank you letter.
No of course not, but neither do we have much to gain from bellicose language and posturing. The very last thing we need.
I think what everyone should be focussed on is massive economic and political pressure for China to put their house in order.
Long term I think supporting the demise of the Chinese Communist Party and a transition to democracy in China should be the primary Western policy goal.
Regime change? Ok. Since we have less than no money, how are we going to achieve this through economic means?
We need to understand that there is a real ideological competition between political systems, and hold ourselves to higher standards.
I congratulate Johnson on his government's response to Covid-19. It hasn't been without its shortcomings, and the tardy decision to lockdown knocks a point or two off their total. On the whole the action taken has been sensible, and long may Johnson and his team's resolve continue.
In the USA however, irrespective of the final statistics,the response has been absolutely abysmal. Trump is personally ill-equipped for any sort of national disaster, his earlier dismantling of precautions already in place from earlier administrations, and his own denial of a problem ate up valuable weeks. Spurred on by his lapdogs within the GOP and from Fox News the US reaction has been nothing short of parody. Many, many thousands will needlessly die.
In defence of Trump, I am not sure the American psyche stands up to scrutiny when illiberal actions have to be taken to minimise the virus. Hero of the hour Andrew Cuomo was issued a get out of jail free card (quite literally) by Trump, who decided not to lock down the Eastern Seaboard, after Trump said he might. Cuomo himself having earlier rejected the quarantineing of New York to prevent contagion spreading. If Americans get so animated at the thought of their owning automatic weapons being curtailed, I can't see them taking kindly to being locked indoors for three months.
By all means, call China out for the creation of and reaction to the Coronavirus, however time spent getting its own house in order first would be wise for those running the USA.
Unless I'm mistaken, the virus reached France and Germany at about the same time. Today France posted 1,053 deaths and Germany 169. I look forward to the research on why this is.
It is quite bizarre. If I had to point to a large country that would do well it would be France. Excellent health system, quite healthy population, warmer climate.
Yet no.
I wonder how much the ethnic minority factor is skewing stats (in ways I can’t quite work out). The West Midlands is probably the worst hotspot in the UK and there is much speculation this is because of particular demographics. Asian people live in more multigenerational households. Go to mosques, gudwaras, etc. Cf Orthodox Jews in london
Do we have the data by racial and religious demographics, not just by age?
There was some talk a week ago of 25% of victims being Muslim and 5% being Jewish.
And there were the doctors and nurses who had died - 4/5 of them seemed to be Asian Muslim.
Didn't Germany begin targeted testing very early? If that is the explanation, they benefited partly by luck as well as judgement.
Weren't many of the early German infections among young, healthy skiers ?
If there is materially different infection rates within different communities within the same country then it will greatly matter where the initial infections occur.
And random sampling might not pick this up.
Not skiers but carnivalists. In the second cluster forming there was a carnival party infected by a superspreader. Among the 30 people affected the average age was a tad below 40, that skewed the earliest numbers downwards.
Since then, testing here has placed a greater emphasis on contact tracing, compared to the UK where resource scarcity has demanded to concentrate testing on symptomatic + risk factor (often age), thus, missing much of asymptomatic community transmission, presumably younger aged.
A couple of days ago the average age of identified cases was 47 here and still above 60 in the UK.
Is there any data as to how many of the infected were asymptomatic ?
From press conferences last week I remember numbers mentioned of 45% and 60% for different kinds of tests.
(just search for the above in Google to evade the paywall)
But there's an interesting bit at the end on a different note: While some are neglected, others are going off grid on purpose. For Berliners in the know, an underground scene continues to rage, replete with full bars, lighting and DJ sets. The raves are held in warehouses and remote apartments, dealers say, with the events co-ordinated via secret chat groups that alert people of the time and place the night before. Pre-paid tickets can cost up to €100 each and special lookouts are hired to watch out for police.
“DJs, promoters: they all still want to make money during this,” said Dave. “There was a big warehouse party last night — I’ve got a couple of mates who went and I haven’t heard back from them yet. They’re probably still going.”
Wonder how much of that kind of thing is going on in London.
I don't know what Kier Starmer sounds like. Never heard him interviewed or a speech. Haven't been going out there to avoid him, but equally can't be bothered to seek out something to watch. Never heard RLB either. I've heard Lisa Nandy and Emily Thornberry quite a lot. The latter before the leadership election, the former only during it.
He sounds bunged up, a bit like Ed Miliband or the bloke in the Tunes advert in the 80s.
Keir's speaking voice sounds a bit like a 70's Pythonesque Eric Idle accountant on the radio...
That said...he was voted QC of the year, and headed the CPS. He is of humble origins, has a great back story and is perhaps the most formidable, able and experienced political leader we have seen in generations.....I don't want to big him up...but I think he is the real deal...
Do not forget...he managed to completely demolish the Corbyn project in one quick move, take over the full control of the Labour Party...and do this when many people here though all was lost to the Corbynite mob....
Just watched the fourth or fifth news story on BBC1 News. Laura's analysis of Starmer's victory and the future of the Labour Party on his watch. To say she is underwhelmed would be a distinct understatement. And earlier in the day, in the midst of this pandemic, I saw Starmer's win and the back of Corbyn as a tiny glimmer of hope for the future.
Ah well, back to lockdown reality.
Laura K is normally so enthusiastic about Labour, too...
The oldest rule in politics. If things get really, really bad, blame foreigners.
The China push back is really quite shocking... The last thing we want after this horror show is a Cold War with China....it seems that many people do though....
And if you're gonna have one, at least wait until you're through the situation where you've shut down basically your entire production of everything, and the Chinese are the only place that are capable of making anything...
The oldest rule in politics. If things get really, really bad, blame foreigners.
The China push back is really quite shocking... The last thing we want after this horror show is a Cold War with China....it seems that many people do though....
And if you're gonna have one, at least wait until you're through the situation where you've shut down basically your entire production of everything, and the Chinese are the only place that are capable of making anything...
(just search for the above in Google to evade the paywall)
But there's an interesting bit at the end on a different note: While some are neglected, others are going off grid on purpose. For Berliners in the know, an underground scene continues to rage, replete with full bars, lighting and DJ sets. The raves are held in warehouses and remote apartments, dealers say, with the events co-ordinated via secret chat groups that alert people of the time and place the night before. Pre-paid tickets can cost up to €100 each and special lookouts are hired to watch out for police.
“DJs, promoters: they all still want to make money during this,” said Dave. “There was a big warehouse party last night — I’ve got a couple of mates who went and I haven’t heard back from them yet. They’re probably still going.”
Wonder how much of that kind of thing is going on in London.
(just search for the above in Google to evade the paywall)
But there's an interesting bit at the end on a different note: While some are neglected, others are going off grid on purpose. For Berliners in the know, an underground scene continues to rage, replete with full bars, lighting and DJ sets. The raves are held in warehouses and remote apartments, dealers say, with the events co-ordinated via secret chat groups that alert people of the time and place the night before. Pre-paid tickets can cost up to €100 each and special lookouts are hired to watch out for police.
“DJs, promoters: they all still want to make money during this,” said Dave. “There was a big warehouse party last night — I’ve got a couple of mates who went and I haven’t heard back from them yet. They’re probably still going.”
Wonder how much of that kind of thing is going on in London.
It's these indoor venues that are really lethal, we need to bring back that thing from the 80s where everybody drives around the M25 for a bit then has a party in a field
Unless I'm mistaken, the virus reached France and Germany at about the same time. Today France posted 1,053 deaths and Germany 169. I look forward to the research on why this is.
It is quite bizarre. If I had to point to a large country that would do well it would be France. Excellent health system, quite healthy population, warmer climate.
Yet no.
I wonder how much the ethnic minority factor is skewing stats (in ways I can’t quite work out). The West Midlands is probably the worst hotspot in the UK and there is much speculation this is because of particular demographics. Asian people live in more multigenerational households. Go to mosques, gudwaras, etc. Cf Orthodox Jews in london
Do we have the data by racial and religious demographics, not just by age?
There was some talk a week ago of 25% of victims being Muslim and 5% being Jewish.
And there were the doctors and nurses who had died - 4/5 of them seemed to be Asian Muslim.
Didn't Germany begin targeted testing very early? If that is the explanation, they benefited partly by luck as well as judgement.
Unless I'm mistaken, the virus reached France and Germany at about the same time. Today France posted 1,053 deaths and Germany 169. I look forward to the research on why this is.
It is quite bizarre. If I had to point to a large country that would do well it would be France. Excellent health system, quite healthy population, warmer climate.
Yet no.
I wonder how much the ethnic minority factor is skewing stats (in ways I can’t quite work out). The West Midlands is probably the worst hotspot in the UK and there is much speculation this is because of particular demographics. Asian people live in more multigenerational households. Go to mosques, gudwaras, etc. Cf Orthodox Jews in london
Do we have the data by racial and religious demographics, not just by age?
There was some talk a week ago of 25% of victims being Muslim and 5% being Jewish.
And there were the doctors and nurses who had died - 4/5 of them seemed to be Asian Muslim.
Didn't Germany begin targeted testing very early? If that is the explanation, they benefited partly by luck as well as judgement.
Not extensively. My best mates room mate had a really bad cough with temperature couple of weeks ago. Wasn't tested. Then She had a vicious dry cough without temperature with inability to breathe. Wasn't tested. Both in Germany. She has diagnosis of bronchitis from GP home visit. Room mate no diagnosis though completely recovered. They may well be testing more than us, but it is far from saturation.
The oldest rule in politics. If things get really, really bad, blame foreigners.
Quite. The Chinese Government are absolutely blameless in all of this.
We should be writing them a thank you letter.
No of course not, but neither do we have much to gain from bellicose language and posturing. The very last thing we need.
I think what everyone should be focussed on is massive economic and political pressure for China to put their house in order.
Long term I think supporting the demise of the Chinese Communist Party and a transition to democracy in China should be the primary Western policy goal.
Regime change? Ok. Since we have less than no money, how are we going to achieve this through economic means?
We need to understand that there is a real ideological competition between political systems, and hold ourselves to higher standards.
The oldest rule in politics. If things get really, really bad, blame foreigners.
The China push back is really quite shocking... The last thing we want after this horror show is a Cold War with China....it seems that many people do though....
And if you're gonna have one, at least wait until you're through the situation where you've shut down basically your entire production of everything, and the Chinese are the only place that are capable of making anything...
One thing that is funny me (but I have the sense of humour of Amos from The Expanse) is that tyson is pleading that the the docs his wife knows are so open, so kind...
This is the malformation of the spirit that dictatorships produce - an external personality that is open, kind etc - within the limits. China practises familial punishment - step out of line and your nieces may be thrown out of university.... And that is a long, long lever.
I have mentioned - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sverdlovsk_anthrax_leak - one thing from that - the foreign observers were clear that it was all as Moscow said. The local doctors said so. After things changed, someone asked the local doctors - they described how it is to talk, with a state official reading the reports produced. Knowing that one word wrong would damn anyone of their name.
(just search for the above in Google to evade the paywall)
But there's an interesting bit at the end on a different note: While some are neglected, others are going off grid on purpose. For Berliners in the know, an underground scene continues to rage, replete with full bars, lighting and DJ sets. The raves are held in warehouses and remote apartments, dealers say, with the events co-ordinated via secret chat groups that alert people of the time and place the night before. Pre-paid tickets can cost up to €100 each and special lookouts are hired to watch out for police.
“DJs, promoters: they all still want to make money during this,” said Dave. “There was a big warehouse party last night — I’ve got a couple of mates who went and I haven’t heard back from them yet. They’re probably still going.”
Wonder how much of that kind of thing is going on in London.
Apparently you can get your dealer to pop into the local off-licence on the way to the door. All hearsay you understand.
Comments
The other nephew is being tested today...he's had all the symptoms and is at home...his girlfriend is being tested today too...but no symptoms..and due to be deployed on a vicious London ward....
I think the NHS capacity is holding up...it has mobilised....and I think it will cope in the next month (everything crossed).....
My sister though lives on a link to St Thomas's.....and she says it is full on emergency vehicles speeding past....I live on a major road to the JR in Oxford...and it's quiet
That said...he was voted QC of the year, and headed the CPS. He is of humble origins, has a great back story and is perhaps the most formidable, able and experienced political leader we have seen in generations.....I don't want to big him up...but I think he is the real deal...
Do not forget...he managed to completely demolish the Corbyn project in one quick move, take over the full control of the Labour Party...and do this when many people here though all was lost to the Corbynite mob....
Party politics is rightly taking a backseat at the moment as we face the current crisis, but once some semblance of normality is resumed, there will be big policy choices to be made on our recovery that are firmly in the political sphere. There will be plenty of scope for Starmer to take advantage of this from left-of-centre. This means the Tories can no longer take having an incompetent opposition for granted.
But let's not get carried away. There's plenty of challenges ahead for Starmer before he's seen as a credible alternative PM by the wider country. His choice of Shadow Cabinet will be an interesting first test...
Night all.
So I do believe the bat, the pangolin, the horrific nature of their live markets, their antiquated taste for wildlife..spread this terrible disease into human beings...
It is obvious the mathematicians are not about.
i is the squareroot of -1. For this triangle, the origin (0,0) is placed at the right angle and the coordinates of the other vertices are (0,i) and (1,0i). To get the LENGTH of the sides you take the complex conjugates which are trivial for (1,0i) as it has no imaginary part.
For the other coordinate, its length |(0,i)| is given by (0, i)(0, -i) = 0 + -1xi^2 = 1
So the length of both sides are 1 and the hypotenuse is sqrt(2) = 1.41(ish)
QED
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Of course even with that taken into account there's still a large gap - guessing that's a lot more infections rather than a treatment difference.
Keep your chin up.
We should be writing them a thank you letter.
https://twitter.com/rufusjones1/status/1246563759910522884?s=20
This is a counter example of Pythagoras' Theorem. You are right that i=sqrt(-1), but the sum of the squares of the two sides is i^2+1^2=-1+1=0. But the length of the hypotenuse is sqrt(2) not zero.
How "can that be?" you ask incredulously. As every decent mathematician knows you need to specify your conditions before presenting a theorem. Pythagoras' theroemm works in the R^2 plane but not in the complex plane. It also does not work on a curved surface such as on the surface of the Earth.
Good night and sweet dreams.
And there were the doctors and nurses who had died - 4/5 of them seemed to be Asian Muslim.
Long term I think supporting the demise of the Chinese Communist Party and a transition to democracy in China should be the primary Western policy goal.
Maybe America is going to an even darker place?
https://www.expressandstar.com/news/health/coronavirus-covid19/2020/04/03/mp-warned-by-police-after-attending-funeral-with-up-to-100-mourners-amid-coronavirus-lockdown/
Funeral for nearly 100 attended by MP?
A BuzzFeed News analysis of Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and Instagram shows a sharp uptick in posts mentioning "Agenda 21" in recent weeks as the coronavirus crisis has taken hold around the world, although posts are often removed for breaching the platforms’ rules.
These posts and videos often link Agenda 21 with other tried and tested tropes of anti-government conspiracy theories, including vaccinations, Bill Gates, George Soros and 5G networks,
https://www.buzzfeed.com/joeydurso/coronavirus-agenda-21-5g
Meanwhile, the wildlife roaming the U.K. is escalating.
https://twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/1246145580402966528
If there is materially different infection rates within different communities within the same country then it will greatly matter where the initial infections occur.
And random sampling might not pick this up.
Once the scalar lengths are calculated, Pythagoras can be applied as long as the reference system is flat in a Euclidean sense.
https://twitter.com/HuXijin_GT/status/1246130343402340352
Ah well, back to lockdown reality.
German system has some serious flaws, for one thing it isn't clear they even are testing 500k a week (yes I'm going to do that Darrell Huff playbook trick of quoting the German figure as per week so it looks immensely bigger than a UK figure usually quoted per day) as it seems nobody really knows what's happening due to the decentralisation. May well be several times smaller than that apparently and not orders of magnitudes above the UK after all. It is also clear not all the testing there is high quality and much of it is being badly targeted at the "worried well". They'll also be getting an awful lot of false negatives and that's potentially very dangerous indeed - UK system of getting people to self-isolate "just in case" their cough is actually COVID may well be better in some respects than going for a test in which a substantial proportion of infected people test negative then resume daily activities.
To be clear I'm not saying the German system has no advantages over the UK one or that there's nothing we could learn from it but I do wonder how many people are just impressed by the quoted numbers. It isn't even obvious that it's their testing system which is responsible for their apparent (at least so far, and long may it remain so) low death count - what's being done in South Korea seems a more coherent overall system.
https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2020/apr/04/marianne-faithfull-hospitalised-with-coronavirus
Since then, testing here has placed a greater emphasis on contact tracing, compared to the UK where resource scarcity has demanded to concentrate testing on symptomatic + risk factor (often age), thus, missing much of asymptomatic community transmission, presumably younger aged.
A couple of days ago the average age of identified cases was 47 here and still above 60 in the UK.
In the USA however, irrespective of the final statistics,the response has been absolutely abysmal. Trump is personally ill-equipped for any sort of national disaster, his earlier dismantling of precautions already in place from earlier administrations, and his own denial of a problem ate up valuable weeks. Spurred on by his lapdogs within the GOP and from Fox News the US reaction has been nothing short of parody. Many, many thousands will needlessly die.
In defence of Trump, I am not sure the American psyche stands up to scrutiny when illiberal actions have to be taken to minimise the virus. Hero of the hour Andrew Cuomo was issued a get out of jail free card (quite literally) by Trump, who decided not to lock down the Eastern Seaboard, after Trump said he might. Cuomo himself having earlier rejected the quarantineing of New York to prevent contagion spreading. If Americans get so animated at the thought of their owning automatic weapons being curtailed, I can't see them taking kindly to being locked indoors for three months.
By all means, call China out for the creation of and reaction to the Coronavirus, however time spent getting its own house in order first would be wise for those running the USA.
Berlin’s drug dealers adapt to life under coronavirus lockdown
Vendors face a shifting landscape as supply routes close and users’ habits change
(just search for the above in Google to evade the paywall)
But there's an interesting bit at the end on a different note:
While some are neglected, others are going off grid on purpose. For Berliners in the know, an underground scene continues to rage, replete with full bars, lighting and DJ sets. The raves are held in warehouses and remote apartments, dealers say, with the events co-ordinated via secret chat groups that alert people of the time and place the night before. Pre-paid tickets can cost up to €100 each and special lookouts are hired to watch out for police.
“DJs, promoters: they all still want to make money during this,” said Dave. “There was a big warehouse party last night — I’ve got a couple of mates who went and I haven’t heard back from them yet. They’re probably still going.”
Wonder how much of that kind of thing is going on in London.
Then She had a vicious dry cough without temperature with inability to breathe. Wasn't tested. Both in Germany. She has diagnosis of bronchitis from GP home visit. Room mate no diagnosis though completely recovered.
They may well be testing more than us, but it is far from saturation.
This is the malformation of the spirit that dictatorships produce - an external personality that is open, kind etc - within the limits. China practises familial punishment - step out of line and your nieces may be thrown out of university.... And that is a long, long lever.
I have mentioned - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sverdlovsk_anthrax_leak - one thing from that - the foreign observers were clear that it was all as Moscow said. The local doctors said so. After things changed, someone asked the local doctors - they described how it is to talk, with a state official reading the reports produced. Knowing that one word wrong would damn anyone of their name.