"According to reports this weekend, the British government has been told the Chinese may have lied about the extent of their own outbreak by a factor of 40."
Picture an Island in the river. On it hundreds of thousands of our most vulnerable. Above them a creaking damn that if it goes will obliterate the island. And a government doing diddly zilch about the situation.
That’s the care home crisis of this lazy governments own making.
And what do you want the government to do exactly?
I think he wants the government to put hundreds of thousands on a small island in the Thames.
I mean, it seems a bit cruel to me, but presumably @egg has his reasons.
Egg has some Rum ideas...
Some might just say he was Barra'n of ideas....
Skye's the limit.
I'll Mull that one over....
I hope i don't ever have to en-jura-nother pun thread like this one.
Today's US figures look pretty horrible. I just don't see how the Government is ever going to implement the kind of lockdown measures that have worked elsewhere.
Right this minute, I wouldn't like to put an upper limit on the number of US deaths due the virus or how long the crisis will last there. Is it too extreme to imagine a world that puts the US in quarantine?
32 out of 50 US states are now in lockdown, Canada, the Netherlands and Sweden are still not in lockdown at all. South Korea prioritised mass testing and has also avoided lockdown
The Netherlands and Sweden now have pretty horrifying death tolls, worse than there neighbours
Not sure that's true... the deaths per million people are, at present, very similar in Netherlands, France and Belgium. And Sweden is very similar, on the same measure, to Denmark.
The Netherlands has the 3rd highest deaths per capita on that chart behind Italy and Spain. The US is not in the top 10 yet, the UK is 10th and all are European nations bar Iran (though China in reality should also probably be there)
Quite
My hunch is that, in the end, Western European nations will be a wash. No one will do that much better, or worse, and all of them will end in some kind of lockdown, because the death tolls are too traumatic, otherwise.
I think it will be pretty similar economically, but probably the biggest factor in mortality will be geography. Big cities will get it worst, and rural areas get off lightly, though far from unscathed.
Abode type might have an impact too. Flats being particularly lethal.
Picture an Island in the river. On it hundreds of thousands of our most vulnerable. Above them a creaking damn that if it goes will obliterate the island. And a government doing diddly zilch about the situation.
That’s the care home crisis of this lazy governments own making.
And what do you want the government to do exactly?
I think he wants the government to put hundreds of thousands on a small island in the Thames.
I mean, it seems a bit cruel to me, but presumably @egg has his reasons.
Egg has some Rum ideas...
Some might just say he was Barra'n of ideas....
Skye's the limit.
I'll Mull that one over....
I hope i don't ever have to en-jura-nother pun thread like this one.
You might have Wight’ed until @ydoetur gets back from Coats Island...
Picture an Island in the river. On it hundreds of thousands of our most vulnerable. Above them a creaking damn that if it goes will obliterate the island. And a government doing diddly zilch about the situation.
That’s the care home crisis of this lazy governments own making.
And what do you want the government to do exactly?
I think he wants the government to put hundreds of thousands on a small island in the Thames.
I mean, it seems a bit cruel to me, but presumably @egg has his reasons.
Today's US figures look pretty horrible. I just don't see how the Government is ever going to implement the kind of lockdown measures that have worked elsewhere.
Right this minute, I wouldn't like to put an upper limit on the number of US deaths due the virus or how long the crisis will last there. Is it too extreme to imagine a world that puts the US in quarantine?
32 out of 50 US states are now in lockdown, Canada, the Netherlands and Sweden are still not in lockdown at all. South Korea prioritised mass testing and has also avoided lockdown
The Netherlands and Sweden now have pretty horrifying death tolls, worse than there neighbours
Not sure that's true... the deaths per million people are, at present, very similar in Netherlands, France and Belgium. And Sweden is very similar, on the same measure, to Denmark.
The Netherlands has the 3rd highest deaths per capita on that chart behind Italy and Spain. The US is not in the top 10 yet, the UK is 10th and all are European nations bar Iran (though China in reality should also probably be there)
Quite
My hunch is that, in the end, Western European nations will be a wash. No one will do that much better, or worse, and all of them will end in some kind of lockdown, because the death tolls are too traumatic, otherwise.
I think it will be pretty similar economically, but probably the biggest factor in mortality will be geography. Big cities will get it worst, and rural areas get off lightly, though far from unscathed.
Abode type might have an impact too. Flats being particularly lethal.
I think Netherlands restrictions arent that disimilar to ours now. pubs and bars closed, hair salon and beauty parlours closed. ban on gatherings.
but a key difference is you can have up to 3 visitors to your home if they stay 1.5m away from you. that's a hard one to police. you just have to hope people understand why and comply.
Picture an Island in the river. On it hundreds of thousands of our most vulnerable. Above them a creaking damn that if it goes will obliterate the island. And a government doing diddly zilch about the situation.
That’s the care home crisis of this lazy governments own making.
And what do you want the government to do exactly?
I think he wants the government to put hundreds of thousands on a small island in the Thames.
I mean, it seems a bit cruel to me, but presumably @egg has his reasons.
Egg has some Rum ideas...
Some might just say he was Barra'n of ideas....
Skye's the limit.
I'll Mull that one over....
I hope i don't ever have to en-jura-nother pun thread like this one.
You might have Wight’ed until @ydoetur gets back from Coats Island...
Picture an Island in the river. On it hundreds of thousands of our most vulnerable. Above them a creaking damn that if it goes will obliterate the island. And a government doing diddly zilch about the situation.
That’s the care home crisis of this lazy governments own making.
And what do you want the government to do exactly?
I think he wants the government to put hundreds of thousands on a small island in the Thames.
I mean, it seems a bit cruel to me, but presumably @egg has his reasons.
Egg has some Rum ideas...
Some might just say he was Barra'n of ideas....
Skye's the limit.
I'll Mull that one over....
I hope i don't ever have to en-jura-nother pun thread like this one.
You might have Wight’ed until @ydoetur gets back from Coats Island...
Picture an Island in the river. On it hundreds of thousands of our most vulnerable. Above them a creaking damn that if it goes will obliterate the island. And a government doing diddly zilch about the situation.
That’s the care home crisis of this lazy governments own making.
And what do you want the government to do exactly?
I think he wants the government to put hundreds of thousands on a small island in the Thames.
I mean, it seems a bit cruel to me, but presumably @egg has his reasons.
Egg has some Rum ideas...
Some might just say he was Barra'n of ideas....
Skye's the limit.
I'll Mull that one over....
I hope i don't ever have to en-jura-nother pun thread like this one.
Desperate times, desperate measures.... In normal times, this would be considered absolutely unethical. I’d be interested in @Foxy ‘s take on this.
Human challenge studies to accelerate coronavirus vaccine licensure https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiaa152/5814216?searchresult=1 Controlled human challenge trials of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates could accelerate the testing and potential rollout of efficacious vaccines. By replacing conventional Phase 3 testing of vaccine candidates, such trials may subtract many months from the licensure process, making efficacious vaccines available more quickly. Obviously, challenging volunteers with this live virus risks inducing severe disease and possibly even death. However, we argue that such studies, by accelerating vaccine evaluation, could reduce the global burden of coronavirus-related mortality and morbidity. Volunteers in such studies could autonomously authorize the risks to themselves, and their net risk could be acceptable if participants comprise healthy young adults, who are at relatively low risk of serious disease following natural infection, they have a high baseline risk of natural infection, and during the trial they receive frequent monitoring and, following any infection, the best available care.
Picture an Island in the river. On it hundreds of thousands of our most vulnerable. Above them a creaking damn that if it goes will obliterate the island. And a government doing diddly zilch about the situation.
That’s the care home crisis of this lazy governments own making.
And what do you want the government to do exactly?
I think he wants the government to put hundreds of thousands on a small island in the Thames.
I mean, it seems a bit cruel to me, but presumably @egg has his reasons.
Egg has some Rum ideas...
Some might just say he was Barra'n of ideas....
Skye's the limit.
I'll Mull that one over....
I hope i don't ever have to en-jura-nother pun thread like this one.
You might have Wight’ed until @ydoetur gets back from Coats Island...
buzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz - deviation. not scottish.
OP said “island in a river”. So buzz back at you! A severe outbreak of Tasmania on here this morning... #CornyvirusPundemic
The police are going to use this crisis as an excuse to beef up their drone units, aren't they? Gotta keep themselves safe whilst looking for criminals somehow!
I hope it's the opposite actually and the Government step in to regulate their use by police forces.
"According to reports this weekend, the British government has been told the Chinese may have lied about the extent of their own outbreak by a factor of 40."
It's ok. Foxy has told us this is all nonsense because a couple of Chinese medics helped contribute to a nice article in the Lancet back in January, and it's our Government that's really at fault.
Really noticeable today that the press are turning on the Gov't. The headlines are not good. The two biggest gripes are 1. Lack of testing and 2. Lack of safety equipment.
As it happens, I'm not putting the boot in. But the Gov't should be worried by this.
Desperate times, desperate measures.... In normal times, this would be considered absolutely unethical. I’d be interested in @Foxy ‘s take on this.
Human challenge studies to accelerate coronavirus vaccine licensure https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiaa152/5814216?searchresult=1 Controlled human challenge trials of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates could accelerate the testing and potential rollout of efficacious vaccines. By replacing conventional Phase 3 testing of vaccine candidates, such trials may subtract many months from the licensure process, making efficacious vaccines available more quickly. Obviously, challenging volunteers with this live virus risks inducing severe disease and possibly even death. However, we argue that such studies, by accelerating vaccine evaluation, could reduce the global burden of coronavirus-related mortality and morbidity. Volunteers in such studies could autonomously authorize the risks to themselves, and their net risk could be acceptable if participants comprise healthy young adults, who are at relatively low risk of serious disease following natural infection, they have a high baseline risk of natural infection, and during the trial they receive frequent monitoring and, following any infection, the best available care.
Also assumes adequate masks are widely available. Which, TBH, I don't think they are!
I've just given some material we had to the local tailor who is sewing face masks (cotton so washable at higher temperatures) for local care homes, as well as selling them to locals. He gave me a child-size one for my kid. Probably adequate to help stop you spreading it to others.
There might be a slightly more relaxed definition of which shops are "essential" and therefore allowed to stay open here in Cologne. I was happily surprised to see the local flower shop, which also sells a nice selection of plants, is still open.
"According to reports this weekend, the British government has been told the Chinese may have lied about the extent of their own outbreak by a factor of 40."
Article making unsubstantiated claims about China complains how China is making unsubstantiated claims.
It comes from our intelligence and security services. It's they who are telling the British Government about the true figures based on GCHQ analysis and intelligence sources. Further, those same agencies have evidence of a coordinated international misinformation campaign by the Chinese government to blame others, or muddy the waters, which judging by your moronic post they are being quite successful at.
Petrol at my local filling station has just dropped below a £1 per litre
99.7p
I might actually be able to drive my R35 GTR at this rate. (8-10mpg)
If you get that much fuel economy out of it, you're not driving hard enough!
I could not drive it any harder (on the road). Mine is +100hp and -100kg on a stock one and has a level mechanical grip that could only be described as frightening.
Today's US figures look pretty horrible. I just don't see how the Government is ever going to implement the kind of lockdown measures that have worked elsewhere.
Right this minute, I wouldn't like to put an upper limit on the number of US deaths due the virus or how long the crisis will last there. Is it too extreme to imagine a world that puts the US in quarantine?
32 out of 50 US states are now in lockdown, Canada, the Netherlands and Sweden are still not in lockdown at all. South Korea prioritised mass testing and has also avoided lockdown
The Netherlands and Sweden now have pretty horrifying death tolls, worse than there neighbours
Not sure that's true... the deaths per million people are, at present, very similar in Netherlands, France and Belgium. And Sweden is very similar, on the same measure, to Denmark.
The Netherlands has the 3rd highest deaths per capita on that chart behind Italy and Spain. The US is not in the top 10 yet, the UK is 10th and all are European nations bar Iran (though China in reality should also probably be there)
Quite
My hunch is that, in the end, Western European nations will be a wash. No one will do that much better, or worse, and all of them will end in some kind of lockdown, because the death tolls are too traumatic, otherwise.
I think it will be pretty similar economically, but probably the biggest factor in mortality will be geography. Big cities will get it worst, and rural areas get off lightly, though far from unscathed.
Abode type might have an impact too. Flats being particularly lethal.
I think Netherlands restrictions arent that disimilar to ours now. pubs and bars closed, hair salon and beauty parlours closed. ban on gatherings.
but a key difference is you can have up to 3 visitors to your home if they stay 1.5m away from you. that's a hard one to police. you just have to hope people understand why and comply.
That's an odd one. Best way is to act as if you have the virus and only carry out strictly necessary social interactions with others. I wouldn't feel comfortable in anyone else's house atm tbh
Also assumes adequate masks are widely available. Which, TBH, I don't think they are!
For something that is just a string of DNA in a funky shell, it really does act smart. It's like battling the Alien herself.
If you had asked a group of writers to come up with the traits of a real bastard of a bug, they'd have been hard-pressed to create something nastier. Asymptomatic in some people, others stricken down in hours. Debilitating, requiring intensive care - by lots of other people who can be exposed. Travellling through the air, yet viable up to 72 hours on some surfaces. Passed on hand to hand, then taking advantage of our unconscious movement to touch our faces umpteen times an hour.
The only weakness I'd address guys - you can kill it with soap? That's so lame. Make it like hydrochloric acid or something. Some chemical you couldn't possibly use on your skin.
But other than that - good job. That is proper nasty.
Trump dumping all over the UK government last night was an interesting one. Geopolitically we are going to emerge from this crisis with huge questions over how far we can ever trust the American and Chinese administrations again. We need regime change in both countries.
Desperate times, desperate measures.... In normal times, this would be considered absolutely unethical. I’d be interested in @Foxy ‘s take on this.
Human challenge studies to accelerate coronavirus vaccine licensure https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiaa152/5814216?searchresult=1 Controlled human challenge trials of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates could accelerate the testing and potential rollout of efficacious vaccines. By replacing conventional Phase 3 testing of vaccine candidates, such trials may subtract many months from the licensure process, making efficacious vaccines available more quickly. Obviously, challenging volunteers with this live virus risks inducing severe disease and possibly even death. However, we argue that such studies, by accelerating vaccine evaluation, could reduce the global burden of coronavirus-related mortality and morbidity. Volunteers in such studies could autonomously authorize the risks to themselves, and their net risk could be acceptable if participants comprise healthy young adults, who are at relatively low risk of serious disease following natural infection, they have a high baseline risk of natural infection, and during the trial they receive frequent monitoring and, following any infection, the best available care.
"According to reports this weekend, the British government has been told the Chinese may have lied about the extent of their own outbreak by a factor of 40."
Article making unsubstantiated claims about China complains how China is making unsubstantiated claims.
It comes from our intelligence and security services. It's they who are telling the British Government about the true figures based on GCHQ analysis and intelligence sources. Further, those same agencies have evidence of a coordinated international misinformation campaign by the Chinese government to blame others, or muddy the waters, which judging by your moronic post they are being quite successful at.
Although it's also worth remembering that newspaper headlines are not necessarily exactly what are reported by our intelligence services. So, if the intelligence service says "we believe China has underreported deaths by 4 to 40-times", then the headline will be "China's death toll could be 40x higher than reported".
I have a friend at the Asia Development Bank in Beijing, and he travels fairly regularly to Shanghai. His view is that - while the airports have temperature scanners, and pretty much everyone is wearing masks in public - China seems to have removed the most severe restrictions in the last couple of weeks.
It is weird. Clearly there is a massive difference in host response to the virus. Affected by age, sex, BMI, and a host of other factors. Indeed an over exuberant cytokine response by the immune system is probably part of the pathology.
Are there any other infectious diseases which have such a weird age profile, in particular not affecting children much?
HIV?
HIV is far more likely to kill you if you catch it at 18 than if you catch it at 90.
18 isn’t a child
What a silly thing to post. Sounds like the last defence of a paedophile rather than something sensible.
Today's US figures look pretty horrible. I just don't see how the Government is ever going to implement the kind of lockdown measures that have worked elsewhere.
Right this minute, I wouldn't like to put an upper limit on the number of US deaths due the virus or how long the crisis will last there. Is it too extreme to imagine a world that puts the US in quarantine?
32 out of 50 US states are now in lockdown, Canada, the Netherlands and Sweden are still not in lockdown at all. South Korea prioritised mass testing and has also avoided lockdown
The Netherlands and Sweden now have pretty horrifying death tolls, worse than there neighbours
Not sure that's true... the deaths per million people are, at present, very similar in Netherlands, France and Belgium. And Sweden is very similar, on the same measure, to Denmark.
The Netherlands has the 3rd highest deaths per capita on that chart behind Italy and Spain. The US is not in the top 10 yet, the UK is 10th and all are European nations bar Iran (though China in reality should also probably be there)
Quite
My hunch is that, in the end, Western European nations will be a wash. No one will do that much better, or worse, and all of them will end in some kind of lockdown, because the death tolls are too traumatic, otherwise.
I think it will be pretty similar economically, but probably the biggest factor in mortality will be geography. Big cities will get it worst, and rural areas get off lightly, though far from unscathed.
Abode type might have an impact too. Flats being particularly lethal.
Some stats on household size here: https://population.un.org/Household/index.html#/countries/356 It includes this information: "HOUSEHOLDS WITH AT LEAST ONE MEMBER UNDER 20 YEARS AND ONE MEMBER 65 YEARS OR OVER" which might be relevant for numbers of multi-generational households. In India this is 16% In the UK 1% UK average household size is 2.3 people, Germany 2.1, Spain 2.6, India 4.6, Iraq 7.7, Senegal 8.7
There's a very good i.e. straightforward piece on Sky (which is doing very well) on the data, suggesting that are all western countries are on the same trajectory
"According to reports this weekend, the British government has been told the Chinese may have lied about the extent of their own outbreak by a factor of 40."
It's ok. Foxy has told us this is all nonsense because a couple of Chinese medics helped contribute to a nice article in the Lancet back in January, and it's our Government that's really at fault.
No, I haven't really commented on the Chinese case and mortality numbers*.
Just pointed out that the transmission rate, severity of disease and clinical features were all accurately reported by Chinese researchers at the end of January in a British Journal, the Lancet.
* I think they are under counting both cases and mortality, though I think that true of nearly every country, including our own.
"According to reports this weekend, the British government has been told the Chinese may have lied about the extent of their own outbreak by a factor of 40."
Article making unsubstantiated claims about China complains how China is making unsubstantiated claims.
It comes from our intelligence and security services. It's they who are telling the British Government about the true figures based on GCHQ analysis and intelligence sources. Further, those same agencies have evidence of a coordinated international misinformation campaign by the Chinese government to blame others, or muddy the waters, which judging by your moronic post they are being quite successful at.
I distrust the Chinese government as much as the next guy, but do we have any actual evidence for this? China was locking down cities thousands of miles away, cancelling CNY, and basically shutting down their economy in January. And the CCP aren't a bunch of snowflakes, they clearly wouldn't have done this if it wasn't bloody serious. Considering I managed to work this out at the time, I would imagine the CIA/GCHQ could have.
Picture an Island in the river. On it hundreds of thousands of our most vulnerable. Above them a creaking damn that if it goes will obliterate the island. And a government doing diddly zilch about the situation.
That’s the care home crisis of this lazy governments own making.
And what do you want the government to do exactly?
I think he wants the government to put hundreds of thousands on a small island in the Thames.
I mean, it seems a bit cruel to me, but presumably @egg has his reasons.
Egg has some Rum ideas...
Some might just say he was Barra'n of ideas....
Skye's the limit.
I'll Mull that one over....
I hope i don't ever have to en-jura-nother pun thread like this one.
You might have Wight’ed until @ydoetur gets back from Coats Island...
buzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz - deviation. not scottish.
OP said “island in a river”. So buzz back at you! A severe outbreak of Tasmania on here this morning... #CornyvirusPundemic
Really noticeable today that the press are turning on the Gov't. The headlines are not good. The two biggest gripes are 1. Lack of testing and 2. Lack of safety equipment.
As it happens, I'm not putting the boot in. But the Gov't should be worried by this.
Really noticeable today that the press are turning on the Gov't. The headlines are not good. The two biggest gripes are 1. Lack of testing and 2. Lack of safety equipment.
As it happens, I'm not putting the boot in. But the Gov't should be worried by this.
they're bored, they got their lockdown, its taken over a week to have an effect so they're bored.
its rather like in a GE when they'll spend 3 or 4 days broadly supporting one side - or at the very least, easing off for a bit - before absolutely putting the boot in.
Today's US figures look pretty horrible. I just don't see how the Government is ever going to implement the kind of lockdown measures that have worked elsewhere.
Right this minute, I wouldn't like to put an upper limit on the number of US deaths due the virus or how long the crisis will last there. Is it too extreme to imagine a world that puts the US in quarantine?
32 out of 50 US states are now in lockdown, Canada, the Netherlands and Sweden are still not in lockdown at all. South Korea prioritised mass testing and has also avoided lockdown
The Netherlands and Sweden now have pretty horrifying death tolls, worse than there neighbours
Not sure that's true... the deaths per million people are, at present, very similar in Netherlands, France and Belgium. And Sweden is very similar, on the same measure, to Denmark.
The Netherlands has the 3rd highest deaths per capita on that chart behind Italy and Spain. The US is not in the top 10 yet, the UK is 10th and all are European nations bar Iran (though China in reality should also probably be there)
Quite
My hunch is that, in the end, Western European nations will be a wash. No one will do that much better, or worse, and all of them will end in some kind of lockdown, because the death tolls are too traumatic, otherwise.
I think it will be pretty similar economically, but probably the biggest factor in mortality will be geography. Big cities will get it worst, and rural areas get off lightly, though far from unscathed.
Abode type might have an impact too. Flats being particularly lethal.
I think Netherlands restrictions arent that disimilar to ours now. pubs and bars closed, hair salon and beauty parlours closed. ban on gatherings.
but a key difference is you can have up to 3 visitors to your home if they stay 1.5m away from you. that's a hard one to police. you just have to hope people understand why and comply.
That's an odd one. Best way is to act as if you have the virus and only carry out strictly necessary social interactions with others. I wouldn't feel comfortable in anyone else's house atm tbh
me neither. maybe it's aimed at extended families but doesn't specify that.
Banneninn ... I think it's the stark, grim, reality that hundreds are now dying every day here and that's likely to rise into thousands. At the current trajectory the UK would be very, very, fortunate to exit this with 20,000 deaths. It's likely to be far higher.
This amazingly developed, highly successful, dominant species is currently floored by a vicious microscopic organism. We are powerless.
Picture an Island in the river. On it hundreds of thousands of our most vulnerable. Above them a creaking damn that if it goes will obliterate the island. And a government doing diddly zilch about the situation.
That’s the care home crisis of this lazy governments own making.
And what do you want the government to do exactly?
I think he wants the government to put hundreds of thousands on a small island in the Thames.
I mean, it seems a bit cruel to me, but presumably @egg has his reasons.
Egg has some Rum ideas...
Some might just say he was Barra'n of ideas....
Skye's the limit.
I'll Mull that one over....
I hope i don't ever have to en-jura-nother pun thread like this one.
Islay a pound to a penny you do....
If the requirement is for Scottish islands, it will be hard to keep it going. How many people can make a pun on ‘Inchgarvie?’ It will require blue Skye thinking to make it work, or we might all end up with Ban.
It should be strictly repatriation and freight at this point, and past a certain date the repatriation should stop, people will have to ride out the virus wherever they are in the world
Surely the test, test, test maxim has been taken over by events. It provides information about where the virus is and allows you to target the specific people carrying it. Very useful in the early stages. Later on, it's useful to know who can work in the frontline and who can't. But that's all.
The antibody test, when it comes, will be the more useful test now.
PPE should be available but it is always used at faster rates than people anticipate.
Air-supplied helmets should be standard but the capital cost is much higher. They need filter replacement at intervalss but they incorporate both respiratory protection and a visor, not to mention comfort. That means it will be used more effectively.
I remain doubtful about routine mask use for the general population. The marginal gains can be undone by sloppy use and a false feeling of confidence.
"According to reports this weekend, the British government has been told the Chinese may have lied about the extent of their own outbreak by a factor of 40."
Article making unsubstantiated claims about China complains how China is making unsubstantiated claims.
It comes from our intelligence and security services. It's they who are telling the British Government about the true figures based on GCHQ analysis and intelligence sources. Further, those same agencies have evidence of a coordinated international misinformation campaign by the Chinese government to blame others, or muddy the waters, which judging by your moronic post they are being quite successful at.
I distrust the Chinese government as much as the next guy, but do we have any actual evidence for this? China was locking down cities thousands of miles away, cancelling CNY, and basically shutting down their economy in January. And the CCP aren't a bunch of snowflakes, they clearly wouldn't have done this if it wasn't bloody serious. Considering I managed to work this out at the time, I would imagine the CIA/GCHQ could have.
Indeed, and the Chinese state has both the will and the means to enforce quarantine restrictions via phone Apps that we simply do not have.
Other Eastern societies, notably Korea, but also Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore have also manage to substantially reduce transmission and mortality, but everything in the PRC is on a bigger scale.
I remain doubtful about routine mask use for the general population. The marginal gains can be undone by sloppy use and a false feeling of confidence.
I agree with all of your post except that.
It's only because we are so ill-trained in their use. I have suspected for some years an underlying racism about this: 'look at those Chinese in masks' and outright antipathy.
A good tight-fitting filtered mask worn correctly is clearly a strong preventative for the spread, especially when accompanied by goggles. It takes about 10 seconds of self-discipline to teach yourself never to touch it with your hands. Once you learn that you're a hell of a lot safer.
Masks are excellent and we should have been teaching that from the outset.
p.s. I've had people asking me where I bought mine whilst I've been on my daily walk. Sadly it's no longer available.
Surely the test, test, test maxim has been taken over by events. It provides information about where the virus is and allows you to target the specific people carrying it. Very useful in the early stages. Later on, it's useful to know who can work in the frontline and who can't. But that's all.
The antibody test, when it comes, will be the more useful test now.
PPE should be available but it is always used at faster rates than people anticipate.
Air-supplied helmets should be standard but the capital cost is much higher. They need filter replacement at intervalss but they incorporate both respiratory protection and a visor, not to mention comfort. That means it will be used more effectively.
I remain doubtful about routine mask use for the general population. The marginal gains can be undone by sloppy use and a false feeling of confidence.
Except that after a very good quarantine for two or three weeks. It should be possible to resume the original approach based on testing, tracing and isolation
There's a very good i.e. straightforward piece on Sky (which is doing very well) on the data, suggesting that are all western countries are on the same trajectory
I'm not sure it's that deep an analysis eg It's looking at number of deaths and comes to the conclusion that "Sweden is a about 5 days behind Germany" Sweden deaths per million: 18 Germany deaths per million: 9 It does later on say that the figures in the article aren't adjusted for population, but when assessing how many days ahead/behind countries are it needs to be included. Otherwise you'll end up saying San Marino (total deaths 26) is weeks behind the UK, when deaths per million in San Marino is 766 (UK 26). It's also very relevant when looking at whether health systems are likely to be completely overwhelmed (depends a bit on whether population is a proxy for capacity of health system to deal with epidemic...)
Epidemiologists in Germany seem to be tentatively confident of avoiding the health system getting quite as overwhelmed as in Lombardy. I think this is on the basis of starting off from a slightly better position (ICU and ventilator numbers), having more time to prepare, and having a flatter peak due to more testing and hopefully the lock down starting to work in time. I'm worried about hospitals running out of PPE and trained staff. As well as the virus spreading in care homes.
Trump dumping all over the UK government last night was an interesting one. Geopolitically we are going to emerge from this crisis with huge questions over how far we can ever trust the American and Chinese administrations again. We need regime change in both countries.
If only there was a third major economy in the world we hadn't recently pissed off?
Trump dumping all over the UK government last night was an interesting one. Geopolitically we are going to emerge from this crisis with huge questions over how far we can ever trust the American and Chinese administrations again. We need regime change in both countries.
If only there was a third major economy in the world we hadn't recently pissed off?
Picture an Island in the river. On it hundreds of thousands of our most vulnerable. Above them a creaking damn that if it goes will obliterate the island. And a government doing diddly zilch about the situation.
That’s the care home crisis of this lazy governments own making.
And what do you want the government to do exactly?
I think he wants the government to put hundreds of thousands on a small island in the Thames.
I mean, it seems a bit cruel to me, but presumably @egg has his reasons.
Egg has some Rum ideas...
Some might just say he was Barra'n of ideas....
Skye's the limit.
I'll Mull that one over....
I hope i don't ever have to en-jura-nother pun thread like this one.
Islay a pound to a penny you do....
If the requirement is for Scottish islands, it will be hard to keep it going. How many people can make a pun on ‘Inchgarvie?’ It will require blue Skye thinking to make it work, or we might all end up with Ban.
Picture an Island in the river. On it hundreds of thousands of our most vulnerable. Above them a creaking damn that if it goes will obliterate the island. And a government doing diddly zilch about the situation.
That’s the care home crisis of this lazy governments own making.
And what do you want the government to do exactly?
I think he wants the government to put hundreds of thousands on a small island in the Thames.
I mean, it seems a bit cruel to me, but presumably @egg has his reasons.
Egg has some Rum ideas...
Some might just say he was Barra'n of ideas....
Skye's the limit.
I'll Mull that one over....
I hope i don't ever have to en-jura-nother pun thread like this one.
Islay a pound to a penny you do....
If the requirement is for Scottish islands, it will be hard to keep it going. How many people can make a pun on ‘Inchgarvie?’ It will require blue Skye thinking to make it work, or we might all end up with Ban.
Picture an Island in the river. On it hundreds of thousands of our most vulnerable. Above them a creaking damn that if it goes will obliterate the island. And a government doing diddly zilch about the situation.
That’s the care home crisis of this lazy governments own making.
And what do you want the government to do exactly?
I think he wants the government to put hundreds of thousands on a small island in the Thames.
I mean, it seems a bit cruel to me, but presumably @egg has his reasons.
Egg has some Rum ideas...
Some might just say he was Barra'n of ideas....
Skye's the limit.
I'll Mull that one over....
I hope i don't ever have to en-jura-nother pun thread like this one.
Islay a pound to a penny you do....
If the requirement is for Scottish islands, it will be hard to keep it going. How many people can make a pun on ‘Inchgarvie?’ It will require blue Skye thinking to make it work, or we might all end up with Ban.
Hoy! D'yer hear Vartersay? Iona this contest. It's a Bute. I'll never Tiree. I Canna stop.
Picture an Island in the river. On it hundreds of thousands of our most vulnerable. Above them a creaking damn that if it goes will obliterate the island. And a government doing diddly zilch about the situation.
That’s the care home crisis of this lazy governments own making.
And what do you want the government to do exactly?
I think he wants the government to put hundreds of thousands on a small island in the Thames.
I mean, it seems a bit cruel to me, but presumably @egg has his reasons.
Egg has some Rum ideas...
Some might just say he was Barra'n of ideas....
Skye's the limit.
I'll Mull that one over....
I hope i don't ever have to en-jura-nother pun thread like this one.
Islay a pound to a penny you do....
If the requirement is for Scottish islands, it will be hard to keep it going. How many people can make a pun on ‘Inchgarvie?’ It will require blue Skye thinking to make it work, or we might all end up with Ban.
Hoy! D'yer hear Vartersay? Iona this contest. It's a Bute. I'll never Tiree. I Canna stop.
Instead of quickly using a network of public and private laboratories, the UK used just one lab — Public Health England’s Colindale facility in north London.
Clear evidence for privatising the NHS then. (No?)
Picture an Island in the river. On it hundreds of thousands of our most vulnerable. Above them a creaking damn that if it goes will obliterate the island. And a government doing diddly zilch about the situation.
That’s the care home crisis of this lazy governments own making.
And what do you want the government to do exactly?
I think he wants the government to put hundreds of thousands on a small island in the Thames.
I mean, it seems a bit cruel to me, but presumably @egg has his reasons.
Egg has some Rum ideas...
Some might just say he was Barra'n of ideas....
Skye's the limit.
I'll Mull that one over....
I hope i don't ever have to en-jura-nother pun thread like this one.
Islay a pound to a penny you do....
If the requirement is for Scottish islands, it will be hard to keep it going. How many people can make a pun on ‘Inchgarvie?’ It will require blue Skye thinking to make it work, or we might all end up with Ban.
Hoy! D'yer hear Vartersay? Iona this contest. It's a Bute. I'll never Tiree. I Canna stop.
Comments
It appears that social distancing measures have reduced them at the end of March. Though that could just mean they’ve managed to reduce seasonal flu....
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/31/metro/social-distancing-may-already-be-working-smart-thermometer-company-data-suggests/
but a key difference is you can have up to 3 visitors to your home if they stay 1.5m away from you. that's a hard one to police. you just have to hope people understand why and comply.
In normal times, this would be considered absolutely unethical. I’d be interested in @Foxy ‘s take on this.
Human challenge studies to accelerate coronavirus vaccine licensure
https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiaa152/5814216?searchresult=1
Controlled human challenge trials of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates could accelerate the testing and potential rollout of efficacious vaccines. By replacing conventional Phase 3 testing of vaccine candidates, such trials may subtract many months from the licensure process, making efficacious vaccines available more quickly. Obviously, challenging volunteers with this live virus risks inducing severe disease and possibly even death. However, we argue that such studies, by accelerating vaccine evaluation, could reduce the global burden of coronavirus-related mortality and morbidity. Volunteers in such studies could autonomously authorize the risks to themselves, and their net risk could be acceptable if participants comprise healthy young adults, who are at relatively low risk of serious disease following natural infection, they have a high baseline risk of natural infection, and during the trial they receive frequent monitoring and, following any infection, the best available care.
Crafty little bastard, this virus!
Also assumes adequate masks are widely available. Which, TBH, I don't think they are!
As it happens, I'm not putting the boot in. But the Gov't should be worried by this.
https://news.sky.com/story/wednesdays-national-newspaper-front-pages-11966566
There might be a slightly more relaxed definition of which shops are "essential" and therefore allowed to stay open here in Cologne. I was happily surprised to see the local flower shop, which also sells a nice selection of plants, is still open.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6tyQtlvKG5k
If you had asked a group of writers to come up with the traits of a real bastard of a bug, they'd have been hard-pressed to create something nastier. Asymptomatic in some people, others stricken down in hours. Debilitating, requiring intensive care - by lots of other people who can be exposed. Travellling through the air, yet viable up to 72 hours on some surfaces. Passed on hand to hand, then taking advantage of our unconscious movement to touch our faces umpteen times an hour.
The only weakness I'd address guys - you can kill it with soap? That's so lame. Make it like hydrochloric acid or something. Some chemical you couldn't possibly use on your skin.
But other than that - good job. That is proper nasty.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-the-data-suggests-the-uk-is-on-course-for-many-thousands-of-deaths-11966517 As I understand it they're not prototyping live vaccines anyway?
I have a friend at the Asia Development Bank in Beijing, and he travels fairly regularly to Shanghai. His view is that - while the airports have temperature scanners, and pretty much everyone is wearing masks in public - China seems to have removed the most severe restrictions in the last couple of weeks.
https://population.un.org/Household/index.html#/countries/356
It includes this information:
"HOUSEHOLDS WITH AT LEAST ONE MEMBER UNDER 20 YEARS AND ONE MEMBER 65 YEARS OR OVER" which might be relevant for numbers of multi-generational households.
In India this is 16%
In the UK 1%
UK average household size is 2.3 people, Germany 2.1, Spain 2.6, India 4.6, Iraq 7.7, Senegal 8.7
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-the-data-suggests-the-uk-is-on-course-for-many-thousands-of-deaths-11966517
Just pointed out that the transmission rate, severity of disease and clinical features were all accurately reported by Chinese researchers at the end of January in a British Journal, the Lancet.
* I think they are under counting both cases and mortality, though I think that true of nearly every country, including our own.
The downside is a a morning like today. A really grim catch-up from around the world. In some ways the most interesting is Trump's volte-face.
The markets will go south again today.
its rather like in a GE when they'll spend 3 or 4 days broadly supporting one side - or at the very least, easing off for a bit - before absolutely putting the boot in.
Press are having a truly poor war.
https://twitter.com/alexinair/status/1245223209982664706?s=21
This amazingly developed, highly successful, dominant species is currently floored by a vicious microscopic organism. We are powerless.
G'day to y'all. Try and stay safe.
xx
The antibody test, when it comes, will be the more useful test now.
PPE should be available but it is always used at faster rates than people anticipate.
Air-supplied helmets should be standard but the capital cost is much higher. They need filter replacement at intervalss but they incorporate both respiratory protection and a visor, not to mention comfort. That means it will be used more effectively.
I remain doubtful about routine mask use for the general population. The marginal gains can be undone by sloppy use and a false feeling of confidence.
Other Eastern societies, notably Korea, but also Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore have also manage to substantially reduce transmission and mortality, but everything in the PRC is on a bigger scale.
It's only because we are so ill-trained in their use. I have suspected for some years an underlying racism about this: 'look at those Chinese in masks' and outright antipathy.
A good tight-fitting filtered mask worn correctly is clearly a strong preventative for the spread, especially when accompanied by goggles. It takes about 10 seconds of self-discipline to teach yourself never to touch it with your hands. Once you learn that you're a hell of a lot safer.
Masks are excellent and we should have been teaching that from the outset.
p.s. I've had people asking me where I bought mine whilst I've been on my daily walk. Sadly it's no longer available.
Sweden deaths per million: 18
Germany deaths per million: 9
It does later on say that the figures in the article aren't adjusted for population, but when assessing how many days ahead/behind countries are it needs to be included. Otherwise you'll end up saying San Marino (total deaths 26) is weeks behind the UK, when deaths per million in San Marino is 766 (UK 26). It's also very relevant when looking at whether health systems are likely to be completely overwhelmed (depends a bit on whether population is a proxy for capacity of health system to deal with epidemic...)
Epidemiologists in Germany seem to be tentatively confident of avoiding the health system getting quite as overwhelmed as in Lombardy. I think this is on the basis of starting off from a slightly better position (ICU and ventilator numbers), having more time to prepare, and having a flatter peak due to more testing and hopefully the lock down starting to work in time.
I'm worried about hospitals running out of PPE and trained staff. As well as the virus spreading in care homes.
But after this crisis there probably won’t be.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1245114272537096192?s=20
The US Medical establishment really shouldn’t be throwing stones....
locked down
But you play Fair, Isle play fair....