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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden trailing badly in terms of the enthusiasm of his backers
This is a good polling question and one that I attach importance to – just how enthusiastic are your backers. This, surely is something that will show when it comes to election day and how many of your backers will actually be bothered to turn out. The comparison with Trump supporters is striking.
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Edit: Ah damn and blast!
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1244314312602202114
See the replies.
First line is weekly deaths in 2020, next line is average over the last 5 years for the corresponding week
Any data yet how the “whatever it takes money” flowing to where it’s needed?
A starting point would be those whose income is now zero, won’t get any virus support till June, to at least have the knowledge they are now signed on for state aid not 103,657th in a queue?
Says "good things" will be happening by 1 June.
Sounds like major backtracking.
Brave effort to set us all off again, but we've moved on.
He keeps saying 2.2m dead over and over again.
Massive back track from Trump here I reckon.
This one looks to be pretty efficient at getting into us already, though, so in this case you’re possibly right.
It’s not mutating at a fast rate, either.
I think house prices could take a hit mind.
Eventually we might be able to deliberately modify pandemic-causing viruses ourselves to a benign form and then get to herd immunity by exposing enough people to it before they can get infected by the real version. I think our understanding of RNA/DNA has a way to go before that leaves the realms of science fiction, though.
"That's enough."
Something along these lines:
https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/national-coronavirus-response-a-road-map-to-reopening/
Trigger to Move to Phase II. To guard against the risk that large outbreaks or epidemic spread could reignite once we lift our initial efforts to “slow the spread,” the trigger for a move to Phase II should be when a state reports a sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days (i.e., one incubation period); and local hospitals are safely able to treat all patients requiring hospitalization without resorting to crisis standards of care4; and the capacity exists in the state to test all people with COVID-19 symptoms, along with state capacity to conduct active monitoring of all confirmed cases and their contacts....
Fuck knows, everyone is guessing right now tbh. It IS the biggest event since WWII I think though.
9-11; the GFC, Chernobyl, fall of the Berlin wall, end of the cold war are all smaller than this methinks.
https://twitter.com/ianssmart/status/1244370837119152135?s=19
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=punqdlHMDjo
Does it? 🤔
Oil has been trading at negative 19 cents a barrel.
https://twitter.com/DTAPCAP/status/1243955823585492993
I guess systems break. Deflation?
But usually you seek safe havens (ie: things that preserve their value in real terms) when prices are going up, not down. Cash in bank accounts becomes better value during deflationary periods, not worse.
https://twitter.com/maxlambertson/status/1243525558157352970
http://www.basicinstructions.net/basic-instructions/2017/8/1/how-to-prepare-for-the-apocalypse
https://twitter.com/mirrorfootball/status/1244376715729797121?s=21
People in every industry including entertainment will be considering contingency plans to get their regular stuff done if at all possible. I'm not confident, but we'll see.
Maybe you could do what your ancestors did back in ye goode olde dayes, invite some Anglish migrants to take care of the troublemakers.
That's down 10p in approx the last week.
However neither Romney nor Kerry could match the enthusiasm with their voters Presidents Obama and Bush had with their voters and it seems Biden is facing the same enthusiasm gap with his voters relative to the supporters of President Trump.
The last candidate nominated to take on an incumbent President who had more of a vote for them than against the incumbent was Bill Clinton in 1992 and before him Reagan in 1980, it is notable they both beat the incumbents
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52087002
https://covid19japan.com/#prefecture-trajectory-container
1. Lower the current number infected
2. Slow future outbreaks
3. Prevent it from being too fatal to those who catch it
The key to 1 is to ensure that the number of people "doing the infecting" is a small one. This means we lockdown for 4-6 weeks to result in few new infections, and lots of death or cure.
For 2, we use a combination of track and trace, enforced masks, regular testing for people who come into contact with lots of people, prohibition on certain activities etc. The goal is here is to lower R0 below 1, so that while CV-19 is not be eliminated, it cannot infect in an out of control manner.
And 3 is a matter of having enough ventilators, and improving our treatment regimes.
None of these are easy. 1 and 2, in particular, are extremely expensive.
But together they allow us to turn CV-19 from an @eadric-level crisis into a painful, but not existential. shock.
They're basically scratching around for work, politics being essentially suspended.
There's only one way to halt this virus. A vaccine. Until we get one it will kill millions.
https://twitter.com/rickeyst/status/1244321509402988544
We may have a long wait for a vaccine. If that goes on for more than a year, as seems plausible, millions will die.
I’m staggered. I never thought anyone living other than me had read A Prince of the Captivity.
One of the few Buchan books to have gone out of print - and it’s very easy to see why.
Unfortunately, with the most dangerous criminal organisation in history running the most powerful country in the world, it's hard to be optimistic.
I also see re-configuration in our personal lives. People are networking in new ways and finding different opportunities to be resourceful. They are also facing up to death: the possibility that it might strike is not something most people consider. Learning a little humility in the face of our mortality is not always a bad thing.
The mighty are being laid low.
And, on the 'learning something new' tack, I'm surprised to learn that 'karmic' is a word. 'Karma', of course is fine. As a word, anyway!