The Nightingale Hospital in London really looks incredible. What a fantastic achievement all around.
Let's hope against hope that it was all a complete waste of time.
That's the irony though, isn't it? If the number of deaths and people in ICU remains low, everyone will think it's been a waste of time.
If they don't, people will squeal about the government's lack of resolve.
I have thought for some weeks this is a no-win situation for the government.
But, helpfully, the United States has demonstrated what happens if you cock up the response. That may adjust matters considerably.
I rather think that if the Nightingale Hospitals are sitting empty, there will be loud cheering.
We'll have to have another Crimean War just to fill it. Nadine Dorries could wander the wards with a lamp.
Jeez you still have your head buried in the Normalcy bias desert?
The last of the rapidly disappearing deniers.
What?
Sorry, I read this from you "We'll have to have another Crimean War just to fill it" as suggesting that this was incredibly unlikely? My apologies if that's not how you intended it to be read.
I think we will be filling the Nightingale 10x over. And that's just London.
For those of you interested in the stock markets, I think we are now about to have a long, long, bear run. The little peaks of unreality, to which the US is particularly prone, are going to be flattened as the reality bites.
We are in WW2 and Great Depression territory. A once-in-a-generation or even century event, the magnitude of which is only slowly dawning on some commentators.
My advice? Don't touch stocks and shares until at least the autumn, possibly longer. Although be ready to go big if a vaccine is proven.
As for withdrawing cash to buy other commodities, that is fantastically daft. Unless you think the banking system is about to crash why get out of cash when the world economies are deflationary? Cash is going up in relative value, not down.
I mean, obviously, Gold would have been great in January when I advised buying it but I'm not sure that it's great value now.
Do you even look at the markets when you think up this drivel?
You're lecturing someone who has been near 100% correct about this pandemic and predicted the crash back in January? Chutzpah!
Obviously last week saw a dead-cat bounce across the pond, hence Gold dipped.
Yes you should never lecture the world modesty champion of 2022.
The Nightingale Hospital in London really looks incredible. What a fantastic achievement all around.
It seems a good model for London full stop. Why build all these pissy little local general hospitals? Having said that Whipps Cross is a bit of a mega hospital and certainly used to be a shit hole (my grandparents spent time there, and my grandfather died there) so maybe there is a size you don't want to go above for the long term.
If you were building hospitals from scratch today, then that is the model you would go for. The issue is everyone likes having a hospital nearby so if you try and close or downgrade a smaller hospital everyone is up in arms.
If you think London has a lot of hospitals, then you haven't been to Scotland, where every small rural town still has a 10 bed cottage hospital.
But the costs of travel to and from these larger, distant hospitals, including the significant cost of visiting friends and family who are in one, is mostly (apart from ambulance costs) an externality to the NHS, which can therefore ignore it, but a very real cost to society.
The troible is there isn't much in a 10 bed cottage hospital except 10 beds and some very nice staff. If you are ill you want multibillion pound tech which has to be centralised.
The Nightingale Hospital in London really looks incredible. What a fantastic achievement all around.
It seems a good model for London full stop. Why build all these pissy little local general hospitals? Having said that Whipps Cross is a bit of a mega hospital and certainly used to be a shit hole (my grandparents spent time there, and my grandfather died there) so maybe there is a size you don't want to go above for the long term.
I think there are the problems of a monolithic service.
Because criticism of the NHS means you are an *evil* person, and also perhaps problems with the internal culture, when things go wrong, they go wrong really badly and large numbers of people are killed or maimed by mistake. Admitting to the issue, never mind correcting it, becomes very very difficult.
A more granular service is one way of managing that risk.
I can't work out if we're going to have rampant deflation or rampant inflation from this. I think house prices could take a hit mind.
Who knows. But I reckon it will be inflation.
There's almost no velocity of money now though. Unless you're trying to buy PPE, inflation needs to have a large velocity of money and that has almost stopped.
High unemployment + negative economic growth = downwards pressure on inflation, usually. Oil prices are also at recent lows, and as you say spending is grinding to a halt. The main upwards indicator right now is low interest rates, bu they were already pretty low to start with, so the minor cut shouldn't change much. The massive increase in government spending is mostly just replacing what would've been regular income. My vote is for deflation.
So those people who spent all weekend moving money out of their bank accounts are ahead of the game and writing mug on our foreheads for being slow to act on this? Moving it it to what though? What assets won’t depreciate? jewellery? Water?
Remember again there's someone still working in Downing Street who said Britain didn't really need its farms and fishing fleet.
Sigh - that was in the context of an extreme hypothetical - quite common in Operational Research. You ask - if we take X to an extreme, what is the result Y.
In the case of farming - a large amount of money is spent on subsidy. What do we get for it? What would the landscape be, if we removed it?
A classic in this field was the study in WWII proposing to remove all defensive armament from RAF bombers. If you went all the way to redesigning the planes to not have the structural capability to carry the armament, then they would be 100mph faster and have half the crew. While not adopted, due to the politics of the matter, it is noteworthy that the Air Ministry dropped defensive armament for future designs.
If I recall correctly that was the Mossie, and de Havilland had to virtually build it themselves (full size mockup?) before the Air Ministry would order a single prototype.
Nope - later, after the Mosquito. The idea had been mooted several times by aircraft designers - the basic reasoning was that if you designed for speed, a bomber would be as fast as a fighter. Or nearly. So the intercept curve would be close to impossible.
The Mosquito was nearly binned by the failure of the Blenheim to do exactly that - survive by speed. It worked because the onset of compression effects made speeds above 400mph really, really difficult - otherwise by the time it was in production, speeds would have jumped again, and it would have been another Blenheim. The Mosquito survived with clever lobbying and the promise of testing armament - got as far as a mocked up turret in one prototype IIRC.
De Havilland had some idea of compression issues. As did Supermarine. Famously, Hawker didn't.
The study to remove all defensive armament was after Mosquitos demonstrated *cruise* speeds north of 300, while loaded.
The Mosquito is one of my two fave aircraft of WW2, the other being the Short Sunderland.
A few years I did knock up a spreadsheet of the (my estimated) cumulative effect of hypothentically replacing all our 4 engned bombers with Mossies. The initial total bombload was much lower but with a much smaller rate of loss I think I had the Mosquitoes overtaking within about 6-12 months. Can't remember my input parameters though.
Not enough piano makers...
The study I am talking of was essentially - 4 Merlins, 10K payload, 3 crew, metal construction. Think Lancaster with a much smaller and lighter fuselage.
IIRC De Havilland did some sketches for a 4 engined Super Mosquito. Along with a Sabre engined derivative.
The Mosquito got its performance from being the minimum aircraft to carry the load, not from the wooden construction.
At a tangent, has anyone looked at giving Coastal Command some Lancasters to close the submarine gap much earlier in the Battle of the Atlantic?
Yes - war-gamed by the pros quite frequently. Just keeping the uboats underwater all the time, crawling around at 5 knots makes a huge difference.
For those of you interested in the stock markets, I think we are now about to have a long, long, bear run. The little peaks of unreality, to which the US is particularly prone, are going to be flattened as the reality bites.
We are in WW2 and Great Depression territory. A once-in-a-generation or even century event, the magnitude of which is only slowly dawning on some commentators.
My advice? Don't touch stocks and shares until at least the autumn, possibly longer. Although be ready to go big if a vaccine is proven.
As for withdrawing cash to buy other commodities, that is fantastically daft. Unless you think the banking system is about to crash why get out of cash when the world economies are deflationary? Cash is going up in relative value, not down.
I mean, obviously, Gold would have been great in January when I advised buying it but I'm not sure that it's great value now.
Do you even look at the markets when you think up this drivel?
You're lecturing someone who has been near 100% correct about this pandemic and predicted the crash back in January? Chutzpah!
Obviously last week saw a dead-cat bounce across the pond, hence Gold dipped.
More hubris and BS. You haven't predicted anything of any specificity or worth.
The gold price rose 1.8% over last week, as well, although it did fall for the latter part of the week.
The reason for seeking to get out of cash is the imposition of negative interest on cash balances. Far fetched, perhaps, but some fear it (imposing a cashless society is achievable, now), and everything happening right now would once have seemed far fetched.
I get the impression social distancing is a personal responsibility in Sweden rather than government enforced. You are expected to do it.
I wouldn't interpret any Swedish success in minimising infection as a green light to remove restrictions elsewhere, unless people take a similar personal responsibility.
Presumably the Swedish government reserves the right to impose measures if the the advisory ones aren't effective.
It does highlight the personal liberty question. We need to take more personal responsibility if we want to avoid governments removing our liberties.
No, they are doing things substantively differently. guardian 2 days ago
While every other country in Europe has been ordered into ever more stringent coronavirus lockdown, Sweden has remained the exception. Schools, kindergartens, bars, restaurants, ski resorts, sports clubs, hairdressers: all remain open, weeks after everything closed down in next door Denmark and Norway.
How can renewable energy stay profitable if oil keeps dumping?
It is the capital cost that is the issue with alternative energy, so no new windmills will be built. But those that already exist will continue to turn because there is close to zero marginal cost of production.
More optimistically, an example of catastrophic market failure will finally get the world to introduce a carbon tax, which should be a no-brainer anyway.
Unfortunately, with the most dangerous criminal organisation in history running the most powerful country in the world, it's hard to be optimistic.
I agree. How do we solve a problem like China?
Glad you agree that the US Republican party is the most dangerous organisation in history, and that we need a carbon tax. As for Chinese issues, If you mean by "we" the rest of the world outside China, then good leadership from the USA is also an essential factor.
Agreed. 'We' don't solve a problem like China, unless 'we' is a relatively united front of democracies.
I am not quite sure what you are proposing, but surely this is a particularly poor time to have a trade war.
Certainly, I for one would be grateful for some of that Chinese made PPE.
Even after the Dutch and Italian experiences?
Compared to masks 7 years out of date? Yes.
And as China makes around half the world's masks, there isn't a way to avoid that (at least in the short term) anyway.
For those of you interested in the stock markets, I think we are now about to have a long, long, bear run. The little peaks of unreality, to which the US is particularly prone, are going to be flattened as the reality bites.
We are in WW2 and Great Depression territory. A once-in-a-generation or even century event, the magnitude of which is only slowly dawning on some commentators.
My advice? Don't touch stocks and shares until at least the autumn, possibly longer. Although be ready to go big if a vaccine is proven.
As for withdrawing cash to buy other commodities, that is fantastically daft. Unless you think the banking system is about to crash why get out of cash when the world economies are deflationary? Cash is going up in relative value, not down.
I mean, obviously, Gold would have been great in January when I advised buying it but I'm not sure that it's great value now.
Any suggestions for my pension fund, which is currently sitting in cash? :-o
I can't work out if we're going to have rampant deflation or rampant inflation from this. I think house prices could take a hit mind.
Who knows. But I reckon it will be inflation.
There's almost no velocity of money now though. Unless you're trying to buy PPE, inflation needs to have a large velocity of money and that has almost stopped.
High unemployment + negative economic growth = downwards pressure on inflation, usually. Oil prices are also at recent lows, and as you say spending is grinding to a halt. The main upwards indicator right now is low interest rates, bu they were already pretty low to start with, so the minor cut shouldn't change much. The massive increase in government spending is mostly just replacing what would've been regular income. My vote is for deflation.
So those people who spent all weekend moving money out of their bank accounts are ahead of the game and writing mug on our foreheads for being slow to act on this? Moving it it to what though? What assets won’t depreciate? jewellery? Water?
Remember again there's someone still working in Downing Street who said Britain didn't really need its farms and fishing fleet.
Sigh - that was in the context of an extreme hypothetical - quite common in Operational Research. You ask - if we take X to an extreme, what is the result Y.
In the case of farming - a large amount of money is spent on subsidy. What do we get for it? What would the landscape be, if we removed it?
A classic in this field was the study in WWII proposing to remove all defensive armament from RAF bombers. If you went all the way to redesigning the planes to not have the structural capability to carry the armament, then they would be 100mph faster and have half the crew. While not adopted, due to the politics of the matter, it is noteworthy that the Air Ministry dropped defensive armament for future designs.
If I recall correctly that was the Mossie, and de Havilland had to virtually build it themselves (full size mockup?) before the Air Ministry would order a single prototype.
Nope - later, after the Mosquito. The idea had been mooted several times by aircraft designers - the basic reasoning was that if you designed for speed, a bomber would be as fast as a fighter. Or nearly. So the intercept curve would be close to impossible.
The Mosquito was nearly binned by the failure of the Blenheim to do exactly that - survive by speed. It worked because the onset of compression effects made speeds above 400mph really, really difficult - otherwise by the time it was in production, speeds would have jumped again, and it would have been another Blenheim. The Mosquito survived with clever lobbying and the promise of testing armament - got as far as a mocked up turret in one prototype IIRC.
De Havilland had some idea of compression issues. As did Supermarine. Famously, Hawker didn't.
The study to remove all defensive armament was after Mosquitos demonstrated *cruise* speeds north of 300, while loaded.
The Mosquito is one of my two fave aircraft of WW2, the other being the Short Sunderland.
A few years I did knock up a spreadsheet of the (my estimated) cumulative effect of hypothentically replacing all our 4 engned bombers with Mossies. The initial total bombload was much lower but with a much smaller rate of loss I think I had the Mosquitoes overtaking within about 6-12 months. Can't remember my input parameters though.
Not enough piano makers...
The study I am talking of was essentially - 4 Merlins, 10K payload, 3 crew, metal construction. Think Lancaster with a much smaller and lighter fuselage.
IIRC De Havilland did some sketches for a 4 engined Super Mosquito. Along with a Sabre engined derivative.
The Mosquito got its performance from being the minimum aircraft to carry the load, not from the wooden construction.
At a tangent, has anyone looked at giving Coastal Command some Lancasters to close the submarine gap much earlier in the Battle of the Atlantic?
Yes - war-gamed by the pros quite frequently. Just keeping the uboats underwater all the time, crawling around at 5 knots makes a huge difference.
Another win for questioning the conventional wisdom of Captain Obvious
A story on the BBC website today suggests that the emergency laws limiting our movements even prevent the ancient right of any free born Englishman to drive around with his wife in the boot.
I'm somewhat puzzled by this. But then, I wasn't expecting it to fall so much either.
Non-insane government* vs Insane government
*Even those criticising the UK government and its response to the crisis would have to allow that it is several orders of magnitude better than Trump & Co fighting the individual States.
The Nightingale Hospital in London really looks incredible. What a fantastic achievement all around.
It seems a good model for London full stop. Why build all these pissy little local general hospitals? Having said that Whipps Cross is a bit of a mega hospital and certainly used to be a shit hole (my grandparents spent time there, and my grandfather died there) so maybe there is a size you don't want to go above for the long term.
Time from incident to ED being a survival factor I would have thought would be the answer to why have lots of local hospitals
On the contrary, the extra time taken to get to designated trauma centres pays off with much better survival. For the same reason stroke care is done in 4 London hospitals, rather than everywhere.
It is the more humdrum and elective stuff that needs local provision.
Interesting and noted, I was surmising it might be a factor but you are the expert
On checking, it is 8 stroke units. The paper on benefits is here, both financially and clinical.
The problem is that such provision requires expertise and facilities such as 24 hour interventional Radiology, and can only be staffed in units serving a million population or more.
Places like the IoW with 120 000 population have much worse outcomes, but geography is the issue there, and in places like Cornwall. Less so in some of the smaller NHS Trusts in the UK, surviving as in marginal constituencies despite poor outcomes.
For those of you interested in the stock markets, I think we are now about to have a long, long, bear run. The little peaks of unreality, to which the US is particularly prone, are going to be flattened as the reality bites.
We are in WW2 and Great Depression territory. A once-in-a-generation or even century event, the magnitude of which is only slowly dawning on some commentators.
My advice? Don't touch stocks and shares until at least the autumn, possibly longer. Although be ready to go big if a vaccine is proven.
As for withdrawing cash to buy other commodities, that is fantastically daft. Unless you think the banking system is about to crash why get out of cash when the world economies are deflationary? Cash is going up in relative value, not down.
I mean, obviously, Gold would have been great in January when I advised buying it but I'm not sure that it's great value now.
Do you even look at the markets when you think up this drivel?
You're lecturing someone who has been near 100% correct about this pandemic and predicted the crash back in January? Chutzpah!
Obviously last week saw a dead-cat bounce across the pond, hence Gold dipped.
The Dow rebounded off its low of around 18000 a week ago, and the recovery ran out of steam on Friday. It's now at 21000-ish, just off last week's high of 22000.
Gold started the same period sub-1500 and increased steadily through last week, pretty much matching the stock market. It capped out at around 1600 sometime on Thursday, and has been there ever since.
The mini-crash in the gold price took place during the second week in March, at a time when stock markets were also falling. The two have been pretty closely correlated the whole way through March.
I repeat: do you actually look at the markets before posting your predictions?
Price control in the funeral sector: the Government of Spain prohibits the prices of funeral services from increasing. During the period of validity of the state of alarm, the prices of funeral services may not be higher than those that existed before March 14. The measure is retroactive from the start of the state of alarm and companies that have charged more must return the difference, reports the Ministry of Consumer Affairs in a statement
There will come a time (possibly not too far away) when I’d prefer to take my chances with Covid19 - even at risk to my own life - than spend one more day locked down inside my house.
It’s no life.
This is not a personal criticism but it is not about "you". If people respond in this way the more vulnerable members of our society are at increased risk as the virus will have more vectors to facilitate spread.
I can sympathise with your state of mind, indeed I share it. I am lucky enough to live in a place where I can go for a fairly long walk each day with absolutely minimal proximity to anyone. Without that I would be going mad and I still miss meeting up with friends, going for coffee or lunch together, etc enormously. I have some written work to do but I find it incredibly hard to focus on it. My productivity has collapsed. I recognise precursors to depression in this.
It does suggest that the behavioural psychologists who argued that it was important that we didn't lock down too soon rather knew what they were talking about, doesn't it?
Like when people retire. I started working from home, and being single, about ten years ago and it does change you
Apparently a big change in retirement was the take up in activities and hobbies by the retired. Previously, the model was very much people retiring and lapsing into inactivity and going downhill quite rapidly.
The difference between the previous generations and the current lot of 70s is staggering.
My parents are both 73 and neither have retired for fear of what would have happened to them... it seems playing computer games on a a retro Atari is the answer to their fears
I can't work out if we're going to have rampant deflation or rampant inflation from this. I think house prices could take a hit mind.
Who knows. But I reckon it will be inflation.
There's almost no velocity of money now though. Unless you're trying to buy PPE, inflation needs to have a large velocity of money and that has almost stopped.
High unemployment + negative economic growth = downwards pressure on inflation, usually. Oil prices are also at recent lows, and as you say spending is grinding to a halt. The main upwards indicator right now is low interest rates, bu they were already pretty low to start with, so the minor cut shouldn't change much. The massive increase in government spending is mostly just replacing what would've been regular income. My vote is for deflation.
So those people who spent all weekend moving money out of their bank accounts are ahead of the game and writing mug on our foreheads for being slow to act on this? Moving it it to what though? What assets won’t depreciate? jewellery? Water?
Remember again there's someone still working in Downing Street who said Britain didn't really need its farms and fishing fleet.
Sigh - that was in the context of an extreme hypothetical - quite common in Operational Research. You ask - if we take X to an extreme, what is the result Y.
In the case of farming - a large amount of money is spent on subsidy. What do we get for it? What would the landscape be, if we removed it?
A classic in this field was the study in WWII proposing to remove all defensive armament from RAF bombers. If you went all the way to redesigning the planes to not have the structural capability to carry the armament, then they would be 100mph faster and have half the crew. While not adopted, due to the politics of the matter, it is noteworthy that the Air Ministry dropped defensive armament for future designs.
If I recall correctly that was the Mossie, and de Havilland had to virtually build it themselves (full size mockup?) before the Air Ministry would order a single prototype.
Nope - later, after the Mosquito. The idea had been mooted several times by aircraft designers - the basic reasoning was that if you designed for speed, a bomber would be as fast as a fighter. Or nearly. So the intercept curve would be close to impossible.
The Mosquito was nearly binned by the failure of the Blenheim to do exactly that - survive by speed. It worked because the onset of compression effects made speeds above 400mph really, really difficult - otherwise by the time it was in production, speeds would have jumped again, and it would have been another Blenheim. The Mosquito survived with clever lobbying and the promise of testing armament - got as far as a mocked up turret in one prototype IIRC.
De Havilland had some idea of compression issues. As did Supermarine. Famously, Hawker didn't.
The study to remove all defensive armament was after Mosquitos demonstrated *cruise* speeds north of 300, while loaded.
The Mosquito is one of my two fave aircraft of WW2, the other being the Short Sunderland.
A few years I did knock up a spreadsheet of the (my estimated) cumulative effect of hypothentically replacing all our 4 engned bombers with Mossies. The initial total bombload was much lower but with a much smaller rate of loss I think I had the Mosquitoes overtaking within about 6-12 months. Can't remember my input parameters though.
Not enough piano makers...
The study I am talking of was essentially - 4 Merlins, 10K payload, 3 crew, metal construction. Think Lancaster with a much smaller and lighter fuselage.
IIRC De Havilland did some sketches for a 4 engined Super Mosquito. Along with a Sabre engined derivative.
The Mosquito got its performance from being the minimum aircraft to carry the load, not from the wooden construction.
At a tangent, has anyone looked at giving Coastal Command some Lancasters to close the submarine gap much earlier in the Battle of the Atlantic?
Yes - war-gamed by the pros quite frequently. Just keeping the uboats underwater all the time, crawling around at 5 knots makes a huge difference.
Another win for questioning the conventional wisdom of Captain Obvious
The B24 Liberator, with its longer range was extensively used for that role as I recall.
I'm somewhat puzzled by this. But then, I wasn't expecting it to fall so much either.
Maybe enough US traders believed Trump and thought they were safe from it. One of the polls two of weeks ago had only 40% of republicans thinking the situation would get worse. Quite remarkable for an exponential growth virus and the data available at the time.
Now Trump has changed his mind, the traders are safe to reflect reality as well and still be accepted as republicans.
How can renewable energy stay profitable if oil keeps dumping?
It is the capital cost that is the issue with alternative energy, so no new windmills will be built. But those that already exist will continue to turn because there is close to zero marginal cost of production.
More optimistically, an example of catastrophic market failure will finally get the world to introduce a carbon tax, which should be a no-brainer anyway.
Unfortunately, with the most dangerous criminal organisation in history running the most powerful country in the world, it's hard to be optimistic.
I agree. How do we solve a problem like China?
Glad you agree that the US Republican party is the most dangerous organisation in history, and that we need a carbon tax. As for Chinese issues, If you mean by "we" the rest of the world outside China, then good leadership from the USA is also an essential factor.
Agreed. 'We' don't solve a problem like China, unless 'we' is a relatively united front of democracies.
I am not quite sure what you are proposing, but surely this is a particularly poor time to have a trade war.
Certainly, I for one would be grateful for some of that Chinese made PPE.
Even after the Dutch and Italian experiences?
Compared to masks 7 years out of date? Yes.
And as China makes around half the world's masks, there isn't a way to avoid that (at least in the short term) anyway.
Batches should be quality control inspected on arrival, but otherwise sourced from whoever's can provide.
Personally, I do not blame China for the current pandemic, just a tiny number of people in Wuhan market.
For those of you interested in the stock markets, I think we are now about to have a long, long, bear run. The little peaks of unreality, to which the US is particularly prone, are going to be flattened as the reality bites.
We are in WW2 and Great Depression territory. A once-in-a-generation or even century event, the magnitude of which is only slowly dawning on some commentators.
My advice? Don't touch stocks and shares until at least the autumn, possibly longer. Although be ready to go big if a vaccine is proven.
As for withdrawing cash to buy other commodities, that is fantastically daft. Unless you think the banking system is about to crash why get out of cash when the world economies are deflationary? Cash is going up in relative value, not down.
I mean, obviously, Gold would have been great in January when I advised buying it but I'm not sure that it's great value now.
Do you even look at the markets when you think up this drivel?
You're lecturing someone who has been near 100% correct about this pandemic and predicted the crash back in January? Chutzpah!
Obviously last week saw a dead-cat bounce across the pond, hence Gold dipped.
I repeat: do you actually look at the markets before posting your predictions?
I told friends to get out of the stock market in January because it was about to crash. I wouldn't touch stocks and shares with a bargepole right now.
I'm not really sure why you think you should take a pop when I've been so spot on about this virus except either a) you're grumpy about lockdown b) you're losing money or c) jealousy. Or a combination of all three. But take a pop at something else not someone who has got this right.
The markets are on a bear run. Normally you get mini peaks as people short but even the dead cat bounces are likely now to go as reality finally dawns: stocks and shares are going to slide and slide.
As I mentioned a while back, I don't think we will bottom out on the markets before November and I predict the FTSE 100 will do so below 2000.
I've been right all the way on this, so think what you like.
For those of you interested in the stock markets, I think we are now about to have a long, long, bear run. The little peaks of unreality, to which the US is particularly prone, are going to be flattened as the reality bites.
We are in WW2 and Great Depression territory. A once-in-a-generation or even century event, the magnitude of which is only slowly dawning on some commentators.
My advice? Don't touch stocks and shares until at least the autumn, possibly longer. Although be ready to go big if a vaccine is proven.
As for withdrawing cash to buy other commodities, that is fantastically daft. Unless you think the banking system is about to crash why get out of cash when the world economies are deflationary? Cash is going up in relative value, not down.
I mean, obviously, Gold would have been great in January when I advised buying it but I'm not sure that it's great value now.
Any suggestions for my pension fund, which is currently sitting in cash? :-o
Cash is great. Hold onto it for as long as we're deflationary.
For those of you interested in the stock markets, I think we are now about to have a long, long, bear run. The little peaks of unreality, to which the US is particularly prone, are going to be flattened as the reality bites.
We are in WW2 and Great Depression territory. A once-in-a-generation or even century event, the magnitude of which is only slowly dawning on some commentators.
My advice? Don't touch stocks and shares until at least the autumn, possibly longer. Although be ready to go big if a vaccine is proven.
As for withdrawing cash to buy other commodities, that is fantastically daft. Unless you think the banking system is about to crash why get out of cash when the world economies are deflationary? Cash is going up in relative value, not down.
I mean, obviously, Gold would have been great in January when I advised buying it but I'm not sure that it's great value now.
Do you even look at the markets when you think up this drivel?
You're lecturing someone who has been near 100% correct about this pandemic and predicted the crash back in January? Chutzpah!
Obviously last week saw a dead-cat bounce across the pond, hence Gold dipped.
The Dow rebounded off its low of around 18000 a week ago, and the recovery ran out of steam on Friday. It's now at 21000-ish, just off last week's high of 22000.
Gold started the same period sub-1500 and increased steadily through last week, pretty much matching the stock market. It capped out at around 1600 sometime on Thursday, and has been there ever since.
The mini-crash in the gold price took place during the second week in March, at a time when stock markets were also falling. The two have been pretty closely correlated the whole way through March.
I repeat: do you actually look at the markets before posting your predictions?
The one thing I would recommend people do, when we get fed this "I told you so" BS, is to take a peek at the comment history. It's easy to do. Especially in Mystic's case, as there are hardly any posts for January.
None of them predict a stock market crash.
What Mystic did predict in January is:
- Trump's re-election is near certain. A "shoo-in" (quote). - the UK's future lies in trading with China; Huawei should go ahead - Byronic is SeanT
There will come a time (possibly not too far away) when I’d prefer to take my chances with Covid19 - even at risk to my own life - than spend one more day locked down inside my house.
It’s no life.
This is not a personal criticism but it is not about "you". If people respond in this way the more vulnerable members of our society are at increased risk as the virus will have more vectors to facilitate spread.
I can sympathise with your state of mind, indeed I share it. I am lucky enough to live in a place where I can go for a fairly long walk each day with absolutely minimal proximity to anyone. Without that I would be going mad and I still miss meeting up with friends, going for coffee or lunch together, etc enormously. I have some written work to do but I find it incredibly hard to focus on it. My productivity has collapsed. I recognise precursors to depression in this.
It does suggest that the behavioural psychologists who argued that it was important that we didn't lock down too soon rather knew what they were talking about, doesn't it?
Like when people retire. I started working from home, and being single, about ten years ago and it does change you
Apparently a big change in retirement was the take up in activities and hobbies by the retired. Previously, the model was very much people retiring and lapsing into inactivity and going downhill quite rapidly.
The difference between the previous generations and the current lot of 70s is staggering.
My parents are both 73 and neither have retired for fear of what would have happened to them... it seems playing computer games on a a retro Atari is the answer to their fears
The difference you see in the previous generations between those who kept active vs those who sat in a corner is staggering. I've seen some relatives of friends - siblings where the active ones look and act 20-30 years younger.
For those of you interested in the stock markets, I think we are now about to have a long, long, bear run. The little peaks of unreality, to which the US is particularly prone, are going to be flattened as the reality bites.
We are in WW2 and Great Depression territory. A once-in-a-generation or even century event, the magnitude of which is only slowly dawning on some commentators.
My advice? Don't touch stocks and shares until at least the autumn, possibly longer. Although be ready to go big if a vaccine is proven.
As for withdrawing cash to buy other commodities, that is fantastically daft. Unless you think the banking system is about to crash why get out of cash when the world economies are deflationary? Cash is going up in relative value, not down.
I mean, obviously, Gold would have been great in January when I advised buying it but I'm not sure that it's great value now.
Do you even look at the markets when you think up this drivel?
You're lecturing someone who has been near 100% correct about this pandemic and predicted the crash back in January? Chutzpah!
Obviously last week saw a dead-cat bounce across the pond, hence Gold dipped.
More hubris and BS. You haven't predicted anything of any specificity or worth. .
I'd love to show you all my messages in January telling friends to get out of the stock market. My friend, heavily invested in Tesla and is now sitting on a loss in the 10x000's.
So, yes I have. Sorry you can't swallow your pride to admit that Eadric and I were right and you were wrong.
Envy isn't a good trait.
Mind you, nor is pride
Have a good day and don't buy shares unless you zone in on some very specific firms who are making hay.
I'm somewhat puzzled by this. But then, I wasn't expecting it to fall so much either.
It's curious that the market seems to respond positively to those countries that shutdown their economies.
Letting a pandemic rip doesn't seem to be a benign approach economically either. Indeed may economically worse than titrated lockdowns and social distancing.
That is very worrying polling. Do we know where the comparable polling for Clinton is?
My guess would be the 'very enthusiastic' rating is less important than the 'not so/not at all' rating -> they are the people at greatest risk of not voting...
For those of you interested in the stock markets, I think we are now about to have a long, long, bear run. The little peaks of unreality, to which the US is particularly prone, are going to be flattened as the reality bites.
We are in WW2 and Great Depression territory. A once-in-a-generation or even century event, the magnitude of which is only slowly dawning on some commentators.
My advice? Don't touch stocks and shares until at least the autumn, possibly longer. Although be ready to go big if a vaccine is proven.
As for withdrawing cash to buy other commodities, that is fantastically daft. Unless you think the banking system is about to crash why get out of cash when the world economies are deflationary? Cash is going up in relative value, not down.
I mean, obviously, Gold would have been great in January when I advised buying it but I'm not sure that it's great value now.
Gold spent most of the last few weeks trading below where it was at any point in January, and has recently recovered to around 3-4% above that point.
Do you even look at the markets when you think up this drivel?
How is social distancing being managed on the trading floors and in the bear pits in the city?
For those of you interested in the stock markets, I think we are now about to have a long, long, bear run. The little peaks of unreality, to which the US is particularly prone, are going to be flattened as the reality bites.
We are in WW2 and Great Depression territory. A once-in-a-generation or even century event, the magnitude of which is only slowly dawning on some commentators.
My advice? Don't touch stocks and shares until at least the autumn, possibly longer. Although be ready to go big if a vaccine is proven.
As for withdrawing cash to buy other commodities, that is fantastically daft. Unless you think the banking system is about to crash why get out of cash when the world economies are deflationary? Cash is going up in relative value, not down.
I mean, obviously, Gold would have been great in January when I advised buying it but I'm not sure that it's great value now.
Do you even look at the markets when you think up this drivel?
You're lecturing someone who has been near 100% correct about this pandemic and predicted the crash back in January? Chutzpah!
Obviously last week saw a dead-cat bounce across the pond, hence Gold dipped.
The Dow rebounded off its low of around 18000 a week ago, and the recovery ran out of steam on Friday. It's now at 21000-ish, just off last week's high of 22000.
Gold started the same period sub-1500 and increased steadily through last week, pretty much matching the stock market. It capped out at around 1600 sometime on Thursday, and has been there ever since.
The mini-crash in the gold price took place during the second week in March, at a time when stock markets were also falling. The two have been pretty closely correlated the whole way through March.
I repeat: do you actually look at the markets before posting your predictions?
The one thing I would recommend people do, when we get fed this "I told you so" BS, is to take a peek at the comment history. It's easy to do. Especially in Mystic's case, as there are hardly any posts for January.
None of them predict a stock market crash.
What Mystic did predict in January is:
- Trump's re-election is near certain. A "shoo-in" (quote). - the UK's future lies in trading with China; Huawei should go ahead - Byronic is SeanT
One out of three isn't bad, I suppose.
Fair cop on @Mysticrose's January predictions but where do you see the markets going over the coming months? I can only see down, up, down, down, with an overall bear trend until the autumn at the earliest.
For those of you interested in the stock markets, I think we are now about to have a long, long, bear run. The little peaks of unreality, to which the US is particularly prone, are going to be flattened as the reality bites.
We are in WW2 and Great Depression territory. A once-in-a-generation or even century event, the magnitude of which is only slowly dawning on some commentators.
My advice? Don't touch stocks and shares until at least the autumn, possibly longer. Although be ready to go big if a vaccine is proven.
As for withdrawing cash to buy other commodities, that is fantastically daft. Unless you think the banking system is about to crash why get out of cash when the world economies are deflationary? Cash is going up in relative value, not down.
I mean, obviously, Gold would have been great in January when I advised buying it but I'm not sure that it's great value now.
Do you even look at the markets when you think up this drivel?
You're lecturing someone who has been near 100% correct about this pandemic and predicted the crash back in January? Chutzpah!
Obviously last week saw a dead-cat bounce across the pond, hence Gold dipped.
I repeat: do you actually look at the markets before posting your predictions?
I told friends to get out of the stock market in January because it was about to crash. I wouldn't touch stocks and shares with a bargepole right now.
I'm not really sure why you think you should take a pop when I've been so spot on about this virus except either a) you're grumpy about lockdown b) you're losing money or c) jealousy. Or a combination of all three. But take a pop at something else not someone who has got this right.
The markets are on a bear run. Normally you get mini peaks as people short but even the dead cat bounces are likely now to go as reality finally dawns: stocks and shares are going to slide and slide.
As I mentioned a while back, I don't think we will bottom out on the markets before November and I predict the FTSE 100 will do so below 2000.
I've been right all the way on this, so think what you like.
What I think, is that you're a doom and gloom merchant, whose standard reaction is invariably to predict the most negative possible outcome imaginable. Occasionally you'll be right for a while, but thankfully usually not for very long.
Given that you're airing predictions in a public forum that others might take seriously, and taking action over, it's important to challenge obvious nonsense. Like when you're claiming a success over something you weren't actually right over. People deserve the context.
For those of you interested in the stock markets, I think we are now about to have a long, long, bear run. The little peaks of unreality, to which the US is particularly prone, are going to be flattened as the reality bites.
We are in WW2 and Great Depression territory. A once-in-a-generation or even century event, the magnitude of which is only slowly dawning on some commentators.
My advice? Don't touch stocks and shares until at least the autumn, possibly longer. Although be ready to go big if a vaccine is proven.
As for withdrawing cash to buy other commodities, that is fantastically daft. Unless you think the banking system is about to crash why get out of cash when the world economies are deflationary? Cash is going up in relative value, not down.
I mean, obviously, Gold would have been great in January when I advised buying it but I'm not sure that it's great value now.
Gold spent most of the last few weeks trading below where it was at any point in January, and has recently recovered to around 3-4% above that point.
Do you even look at the markets when you think up this drivel?
How is social distancing being managed on the trading floors and in the bear pits in the city?
Does any such thing still exist? Surely it's all on-line trading now?
For those of you interested in the stock markets, I think we are now about to have a long, long, bear run. The little peaks of unreality, to which the US is particularly prone, are going to be flattened as the reality bites.
We are in WW2 and Great Depression territory. A once-in-a-generation or even century event, the magnitude of which is only slowly dawning on some commentators.
My advice? Don't touch stocks and shares until at least the autumn, possibly longer. Although be ready to go big if a vaccine is proven.
As for withdrawing cash to buy other commodities, that is fantastically daft. Unless you think the banking system is about to crash why get out of cash when the world economies are deflationary? Cash is going up in relative value, not down.
I mean, obviously, Gold would have been great in January when I advised buying it but I'm not sure that it's great value now.
Do you even look at the markets when you think up this drivel?
You're lecturing someone who has been near 100% correct about this pandemic and predicted the crash back in January? Chutzpah!
Obviously last week saw a dead-cat bounce across the pond, hence Gold dipped.
More hubris and BS. You haven't predicted anything of any specificity or worth. .
I'd love to show you all my messages in January telling friends to get out of the stock market. My friend, heavily invested in Tesla and is now sitting on a loss in the 10x000's.
So, yes I have. Sorry you can't swallow your pride to admit that Eadric and I were right and you were wrong.
Envy isn't a good trait.
Mind you, nor is pride
Have a good day and don't buy shares unless you zone in on some very specific firms who are making hay.
xx
As I recall it, Ian and eadric suggested selling shares on the same day. I started buying some put options two days later.
Their disagreement was on the hyperbole of 1-2 million deaths in the UK, not whether shares were a sell.
For those of you interested in the stock markets, I think we are now about to have a long, long, bear run. The little peaks of unreality, to which the US is particularly prone, are going to be flattened as the reality bites.
We are in WW2 and Great Depression territory. A once-in-a-generation or even century event, the magnitude of which is only slowly dawning on some commentators.
My advice? Don't touch stocks and shares until at least the autumn, possibly longer. Although be ready to go big if a vaccine is proven.
As for withdrawing cash to buy other commodities, that is fantastically daft. Unless you think the banking system is about to crash why get out of cash when the world economies are deflationary? Cash is going up in relative value, not down.
I mean, obviously, Gold would have been great in January when I advised buying it but I'm not sure that it's great value now.
Do you even look at the markets when you think up this drivel?
You're lecturing someone who has been near 100% correct about this pandemic and predicted the crash back in January? Chutzpah!
Obviously last week saw a dead-cat bounce across the pond, hence Gold dipped.
The Dow rebounded off its low of around 18000 a week ago, and the recovery ran out of steam on Friday. It's now at 21000-ish, just off last week's high of 22000.
Gold started the same period sub-1500 and increased steadily through last week, pretty much matching the stock market. It capped out at around 1600 sometime on Thursday, and has been there ever since.
The mini-crash in the gold price took place during the second week in March, at a time when stock markets were also falling. The two have been pretty closely correlated the whole way through March.
I repeat: do you actually look at the markets before posting your predictions?
The one thing I would recommend people do, when we get fed this "I told you so" BS, is to take a peek at the comment history. It's easy to do. Especially in Mystic's case, as there are hardly any posts for January.
None of them predict a stock market crash.
What Mystic did predict in January is:
- Trump's re-election is near certain. A "shoo-in" (quote). - the UK's future lies in trading with China; Huawei should go ahead - Byronic is SeanT
One out of three isn't bad, I suppose.
Fair cop on @Mysticrose's January predictions but where do you see the markets going over the coming months? I can only see down, up, down, down, with an overall bear trend until the autumn at the earliest.
That seems to me nailed on. Any form of investing now is gambling with money you should be bloody certain you are prepared to lose. Earnings and yields on everything are going to zero.
I can't work out if we're going to have rampant deflation or rampant inflation from this. I think house prices could take a hit mind.
Who knows. But I reckon it will be inflation.
There's almost no velocity of money now though. Unless you're trying to buy PPE, inflation needs to have a large velocity of money and that has almost stopped.
High unemployment + negative economic growth = downwards pressure on inflation, usually. Oil prices are also at recent lows, and as you say spending is grinding to a halt. The main upwards indicator right now is low interest rates, bu they were already pretty low to start with, so the minor cut shouldn't change much. The massive increase in government spending is mostly just replacing what would've been regular income. My vote is for deflation.
So those people who spent all weekend moving money out of their bank accounts are ahead of the game and writing mug on our foreheads for being slow to act on this? Moving it it to what though? What assets won’t depreciate? jewellery? Water?
Remember again there's someone still working in Downing Street who said Britain didn't really need its farms and fishing fleet.
Sigh - that was in the context of an extreme hypothetical - quite common in Operational Research. You ask - if we take X to an extreme, what is the result Y.
In the case of farming - a large amount of money is spent on subsidy. What do we get for it? What would the landscape be, if we removed it?
A classic in this field was the study in WWII proposing to remove all defensive armament from RAF bombers. If you went all the way to redesigning the planes to not have the structural capability to carry the armament, then they would be 100mph faster and have half the crew. While not adopted, due to the politics of the matter, it is noteworthy that the Air Ministry dropped defensive armament for future designs.
If I recall correctly that was the Mossie, and de Havilland had to virtually build it themselves (full size mockup?) before the Air Ministry would order a single prototype.
Nope - later, after the Mosquito. The idea had been mooted several times by aircraft designers - the basic reasoning was that if you designed for speed, a bomber would be as fast as a fighter. Or nearly. So the intercept curve would be close to impossible.
The Mosquito was nearly binned by the failure of the Blenheim to do exactly that - survive by speed. It worked because the onset of compression effects made speeds above 400mph really, really difficult - otherwise by the time it was in production, speeds would have jumped again, and it would have been another Blenheim. The Mosquito survived with clever lobbying and the promise of testing armament - got as far as a mocked up turret in one prototype IIRC.
De Havilland had some idea of compression issues. As did Supermarine. Famously, Hawker didn't.
The study to remove all defensive armament was after Mosquitos demonstrated *cruise* speeds north of 300, while loaded.
The Mosquito is one of my two fave aircraft of WW2, the other being the Short Sunderland.
A few years I did knock up a spreadsheet of the (my estimated) cumulative effect of hypothentically replacing all our 4 engned bombers with Mossies. The initial total bombload was much lower but with a much smaller rate of loss I think I had the Mosquitoes overtaking within about 6-12 months. Can't remember my input parameters though.
Not enough piano makers...
The study I am talking of was essentially - 4 Merlins, 10K payload, 3 crew, metal construction. Think Lancaster with a much smaller and lighter fuselage.
IIRC De Havilland did some sketches for a 4 engined Super Mosquito. Along with a Sabre engined derivative.
The Mosquito got its performance from being the minimum aircraft to carry the load, not from the wooden construction.
At a tangent, has anyone looked at giving Coastal Command some Lancasters to close the submarine gap much earlier in the Battle of the Atlantic?
Yes - war-gamed by the pros quite frequently. Just keeping the uboats underwater all the time, crawling around at 5 knots makes a huge difference.
Another win for questioning the conventional wisdom of Captain Obvious
The B24 Liberator, with its longer range was extensively used for that role as I recall.
It certainly was. And with hindsight Coastal Command should have got more of them, faster.
I get the impression social distancing is a personal responsibility in Sweden rather than government enforced. You are expected to do it.
I wouldn't interpret any Swedish success in minimising infection as a green light to remove restrictions elsewhere, unless people take a similar personal responsibility.
Presumably the Swedish government reserves the right to impose measures if the the advisory ones aren't effective.
It does highlight the personal liberty question. We need to take more personal responsibility if we want to avoid governments removing our liberties.
No, they are doing things substantively differently. guardian 2 days ago
While every other country in Europe has been ordered into ever more stringent coronavirus lockdown, Sweden has remained the exception. Schools, kindergartens, bars, restaurants, ski resorts, sports clubs, hairdressers: all remain open, weeks after everything closed down in next door Denmark and Norway.
I think you (and others) are missing my point. And because of that people are likely to draw the wrong conclusions from the Swedish experiment.Swedes are working from home just as they are elsewhere. If they do go to cafes etc they maintain strict social distancing on their personal responsibility. Whether it works in reducing transmissions depends on the effectiveness of that collective personal responsibility.
I'm somewhat puzzled by this. But then, I wasn't expecting it to fall so much either.
It's curious that the market seems to respond positively to those countries that shutdown their economies.
Letting a pandemic rip doesn't seem to be a benign approach economically either. Indeed may economically worse than titrated lockdowns and social distancing.
Perhaps - but I find it interesting that the market takes such a nuanced view.
For those of you interested in the stock markets, I think we are now about to have a long, long, bear run. The little peaks of unreality, to which the US is particularly prone, are going to be flattened as the reality bites.
We are in WW2 and Great Depression territory. A once-in-a-generation or even century event, the magnitude of which is only slowly dawning on some commentators.
My advice? Don't touch stocks and shares until at least the autumn, possibly longer. Although be ready to go big if a vaccine is proven.
As for withdrawing cash to buy other commodities, that is fantastically daft. Unless you think the banking system is about to crash why get out of cash when the world economies are deflationary? Cash is going up in relative value, not down.
I mean, obviously, Gold would have been great in January when I advised buying it but I'm not sure that it's great value now.
Gold spent most of the last few weeks trading below where it was at any point in January, and has recently recovered to around 3-4% above that point.
Do you even look at the markets when you think up this drivel?
How is social distancing being managed on the trading floors and in the bear pits in the city?
Does any such thing still exist? Surely it's all on-line trading now?
I think LIFFE was one of the last with open outcry - and that's long gone.
For those of you interested in the stock markets, I think we are now about to have a long, long, bear run. The little peaks of unreality, to which the US is particularly prone, are going to be flattened as the reality bites.
We are in WW2 and Great Depression territory. A once-in-a-generation or even century event, the magnitude of which is only slowly dawning on some commentators.
My advice? Don't touch stocks and shares until at least the autumn, possibly longer. Although be ready to go big if a vaccine is proven.
As for withdrawing cash to buy other commodities, that is fantastically daft. Unless you think the banking system is about to crash why get out of cash when the world economies are deflationary? Cash is going up in relative value, not down.
I mean, obviously, Gold would have been great in January when I advised buying it but I'm not sure that it's great value now.
Do you even look at the markets when you think up this drivel?
You're lecturing someone who has been near 100% correct about this pandemic and predicted the crash back in January? Chutzpah!
Obviously last week saw a dead-cat bounce across the pond, hence Gold dipped.
The Dow rebounded off its low of around 18000 a week ago, and the recovery ran out of steam on Friday. It's now at 21000-ish, just off last week's high of 22000.
Gold started the same period sub-1500 and increased steadily through last week, pretty much matching the stock market. It capped out at around 1600 sometime on Thursday, and has been there ever since.
The mini-crash in the gold price took place during the second week in March, at a time when stock markets were also falling. The two have been pretty closely correlated the whole way through March.
I repeat: do you actually look at the markets before posting your predictions?
The one thing I would recommend people do, when we get fed this "I told you so" BS, is to take a peek at the comment history. It's easy to do. Especially in Mystic's case, as there are hardly any posts for January.
None of them predict a stock market crash.
What Mystic did predict in January is:
- Trump's re-election is near certain. A "shoo-in" (quote). - the UK's future lies in trading with China; Huawei should go ahead - Byronic is SeanT
One out of three isn't bad, I suppose.
Fair cop on @Mysticrose's January predictions but where do you see the markets going over the coming months? I can only see down, up, down, down, with an overall bear trend until the autumn at the earliest.
I was 90% cash from early Feb, but started buying up a few recovery type stocks, particularly ones with low debt and resilient cash flow through this period.
Too early? Perhaps, but some good quality companies are quite cheap at the moment. Less so in the USA, where the market was much more pesky.
I get the impression social distancing is a personal responsibility in Sweden rather than government enforced. You are expected to do it.
I wouldn't interpret any Swedish success in minimising infection as a green light to remove restrictions elsewhere, unless people take a similar personal responsibility.
Presumably the Swedish government reserves the right to impose measures if the the advisory ones aren't effective.
It does highlight the personal liberty question. We need to take more personal responsibility if we want to avoid governments removing our liberties.
No, they are doing things substantively differently. guardian 2 days ago
While every other country in Europe has been ordered into ever more stringent coronavirus lockdown, Sweden has remained the exception. Schools, kindergartens, bars, restaurants, ski resorts, sports clubs, hairdressers: all remain open, weeks after everything closed down in next door Denmark and Norway.
I think you (and others) are missing my point. And because of that people are likely to draw the wrong conclusions from the Swedish experiment.Swedes are working from home just as they are elsewhere. If they do go to cafes etc they maintain strict social distancing on their personal responsibility. Whether it works in reducing transmissions depends on the effectiveness of that collective personal responsibility.
I understood that that was your point, I just think it is wrong. You cannot replicate what we have by voluntary social distancing while schools, hairdressers and sports clubs remain open and are visited. It can't physically be done. Ever had your hair cut from 2 metres away?
Life hasn't stopped completely. If things can still be progressed in some fashion they should be.
How on Earth can that be justified as a priority. If government has spare capacity there is no shortage of more urgent and more important things for the government to work on.
I dont know how much resource it would take up or whether it is being treated as a priority or not. It may be it does not take up all that much given the early stages of the process, and there may be limits to how many people can be usefully diverted onto more critical Covid 19 tasks. Its like getting 1000 volunteers - it might be great, but you probably cannot use them all effectively.
You're acting like literally nothing else may be permitted to happen while this is going on.
I dont think it's a priority. But that doesnt mean it's an outrage that its happening nor a sign that focus on more important things is not being given due attention.
Jonathan would prefer that Michael Gove concentrated his considerable intellect on steering the ship of state - he's always been such a fan.
I can't work out if we're going to have rampant deflation or rampant inflation from this. I think house prices could take a hit mind.
Who knows. But I reckon it will be inflation.
There's almost no velocity of money now though. Unless you're trying to buy PPE, inflation needs to have a large velocity of money and that has almost stopped.
High unemployment + negative economic growth = downwards pressure on inflation, usually. Oil prices are also at recent lows, and as you say spending is grinding to a halt. The main upwards indicator right now is low interest rates, bu they were already pretty low to start with, so the minor cut shouldn't change much. The massive increase in government spending is mostly just replacing what would've been regular income. My vote is for deflation.
So those people who spent all weekend moving money out of their bank accounts are ahead of the game and writing mug on our foreheads for being slow to act on this? Moving it it to what though? What assets won’t depreciate? jewellery? Water?
Remember again there's someone still working in Downing Street who said Britain didn't really need its farms and fishing fleet.
Sigh - that was in the context of an extreme hypothetical - quite common in Operational Research. You ask - if we take X to an extreme, what is the result Y.
In the case of farming - a large amount of money is spent on subsidy. What do we get for it? What would the landscape be, if we removed it?
A classic in this field was the study in WWII proposing to remove all defensive armament from RAF bombers. If you went all the way to redesigning the planes to not have the structural capability to carry the armament, then they would be 100mph faster and have half the crew. While not adopted, due to the politics of the matter, it is noteworthy that the Air Ministry dropped defensive armament for future designs.
If I recall correctly that was the Mossie, and de Havilland had to virtually build it themselves (full size mockup?) before the Air Ministry would order a single prototype.
Nope - later, after the Mosquito. The idea had been mooted several times by aircraft designers - the basic reasoning was that if you designed for speed, a bomber would be as fast as a fighter. Or nearly. So the intercept curve would be close to impossible.
The Mosquito was nearly binned by the failure of the Blenheim to do exactly that - survive by speed. It worked because the onset of compression effects made speeds above 400mph really, really difficult - otherwise by the time it was in production, speeds would have jumped again, and it would have been another Blenheim. The Mosquito survived with clever lobbying and the promise of testing armament - got as far as a mocked up turret in one prototype IIRC.
De Havilland had some idea of compression issues. As did Supermarine. Famously, Hawker didn't.
The study to remove all defensive armament was after Mosquitos demonstrated *cruise* speeds north of 300, while loaded.
The Mosquito is one of my two fave aircraft of WW2, the other being the Short Sunderland.
A few years I did knock up a spreadsheet of the (my estimated) cumulative effect of hypothentically replacing all our 4 engned bombers with Mossies. The initial total bombload was much lower but with a much smaller rate of loss I think I had the Mosquitoes overtaking within about 6-12 months. Can't remember my input parameters though.
Not enough piano makers...
The study I am talking of was essentially - 4 Merlins, 10K payload, 3 crew, metal construction. Think Lancaster with a much smaller and lighter fuselage.
IIRC De Havilland did some sketches for a 4 engined Super Mosquito. Along with a Sabre engined derivative.
The Mosquito got its performance from being the minimum aircraft to carry the load, not from the wooden construction.
At a tangent, has anyone looked at giving Coastal Command some Lancasters to close the submarine gap much earlier in the Battle of the Atlantic?
Yes - war-gamed by the pros quite frequently. Just keeping the uboats underwater all the time, crawling around at 5 knots makes a huge difference.
Another win for questioning the conventional wisdom of Captain Obvious
The B24 Liberator, with its longer range was extensively used for that role as I recall.
It certainly was. And with hindsight Coastal Command should have got more of them, faster.
The PB4Y-2 (B24 reworked for naval patrol) could and should have been mass produced much earlier.
I get the impression social distancing is a personal responsibility in Sweden rather than government enforced. You are expected to do it.
I wouldn't interpret any Swedish success in minimising infection as a green light to remove restrictions elsewhere, unless people take a similar personal responsibility.
Presumably the Swedish government reserves the right to impose measures if the the advisory ones aren't effective.
It does highlight the personal liberty question. We need to take more personal responsibility if we want to avoid governments removing our liberties.
No, they are doing things substantively differently. guardian 2 days ago
While every other country in Europe has been ordered into ever more stringent coronavirus lockdown, Sweden has remained the exception. Schools, kindergartens, bars, restaurants, ski resorts, sports clubs, hairdressers: all remain open, weeks after everything closed down in next door Denmark and Norway.
I think you (and others) are missing my point. And because of that people are likely to draw the wrong conclusions from the Swedish experiment.Swedes are working from home just as they are elsewhere. If they do go to cafes etc they maintain strict social distancing on their personal responsibility. Whether it works in reducing transmissions depends on the effectiveness of that collective personal responsibility.
the Swedes crossing daily to work in Danish nursing homes etc makes a total mockery of the lockdown here - Swedes are very compliant but still going to bars etc means they are an interesting case study - in 3 weeks or so we will see if it worked out or not - lots of pressure already in Denmark on economic cost of the lockdown and the government is getting a lot of stick over testing as they basically lied about the change in testing strategy which restricted the amount of testing going on.
For those of you interested in the stock markets, I think we are now about to have a long, long, bear run. The little peaks of unreality, to which the US is particularly prone, are going to be flattened as the reality bites.
We are in WW2 and Great Depression territory. A once-in-a-generation or even century event, the magnitude of which is only slowly dawning on some commentators.
My advice? Don't touch stocks and shares until at least the autumn, possibly longer. Although be ready to go big if a vaccine is proven.
As for withdrawing cash to buy other commodities, that is fantastically daft. Unless you think the banking system is about to crash why get out of cash when the world economies are deflationary? Cash is going up in relative value, not down.
I mean, obviously, Gold would have been great in January when I advised buying it but I'm not sure that it's great value now.
Do you even look at the markets when you think up this drivel?
You're lecturing someone who has been near 100% correct about this pandemic and predicted the crash back in January? Chutzpah!
Obviously last week saw a dead-cat bounce across the pond, hence Gold dipped.
More hubris and BS. You haven't predicted anything of any specificity or worth. .
I'd love to show you all my messages in January telling friends to get out of the stock market. My friend, heavily invested in Tesla and is now sitting on a loss in the 10x000's.
So, yes I have. Sorry you can't swallow your pride to admit that Eadric and I were right and you were wrong.
Envy isn't a good trait.
Mind you, nor is pride
Have a good day and don't buy shares unless you zone in on some very specific firms who are making hay.
xx
I've just been looking at your January messages (there aren't that many) so, yes, please be my guest.....
I wasn't wrong, I was more right than either of you, hence my annoyance. I just try not to shout about it quite so much, as no-one likes an "I told you so". But an "I told you so" who actually didn't is far worse.
What's the point in that? Why are they wasting time on shit like this?
One thing I’d fervently like to see in a post-virus world is no more of this sort of nonsense, no more asking celebrities what they think of things they know nothing about, no more tweets from them telling us of their feelings, no more arse licking of people whose main talent is having make up applied to them etc, no more of all this fake concern and emoting etc. It is all so vapid and empty.
I hesitate to say this but even the NHS Clapathon made me feel a little uneasy. I am hugely in awe of those working in the NHS especially at this time and expressing our appreciation is a good thing. But providing them with proper equipment and paying them properly is more useful than a clap.
Gestures instead of practical help are cruel.
And what about all the others doing vital work: farmers, delivery drivers, supermarket staff etc etc?
I get the impression social distancing is a personal responsibility in Sweden rather than government enforced. You are expected to do it.
I wouldn't interpret any Swedish success in minimising infection as a green light to remove restrictions elsewhere, unless people take a similar personal responsibility.
Presumably the Swedish government reserves the right to impose measures if the the advisory ones aren't effective.
It does highlight the personal liberty question. We need to take more personal responsibility if we want to avoid governments removing our liberties.
No, they are doing things substantively differently. guardian 2 days ago
While every other country in Europe has been ordered into ever more stringent coronavirus lockdown, Sweden has remained the exception. Schools, kindergartens, bars, restaurants, ski resorts, sports clubs, hairdressers: all remain open, weeks after everything closed down in next door Denmark and Norway.
I think you (and others) are missing my point. And because of that people are likely to draw the wrong conclusions from the Swedish experiment.Swedes are working from home just as they are elsewhere. If they do go to cafes etc they maintain strict social distancing on their personal responsibility. Whether it works in reducing transmissions depends on the effectiveness of that collective personal responsibility.
I understood that that was your point, I just think it is wrong. You cannot replicate what we have by voluntary social distancing while schools, hairdressers and sports clubs remain open and are visited. It can't physically be done. Ever had your hair cut from 2 metres away?
Got you. Personal responsibility only takes you so far. Ultimately governments have to order people to behave in a particular way.
One of the times to buy is when nearly everyone is pessimistic and cant see any reason to buy. To me that seems most likely to peak when US deaths are close to their peak - the caveat being if the situation in Italy and Spain improves faster than expected then it might be a bit earlier. So buy mid April perhaps?
For those of you interested in the stock markets, I think we are now about to have a long, long, bear run. The little peaks of unreality, to which the US is particularly prone, are going to be flattened as the reality bites.
We are in WW2 and Great Depression territory. A once-in-a-generation or even century event, the magnitude of which is only slowly dawning on some commentators.
My advice? Don't touch stocks and shares until at least the autumn, possibly longer. Although be ready to go big if a vaccine is proven.
As for withdrawing cash to buy other commodities, that is fantastically daft. Unless you think the banking system is about to crash why get out of cash when the world economies are deflationary? Cash is going up in relative value, not down.
I mean, obviously, Gold would have been great in January when I advised buying it but I'm not sure that it's great value now.
From the selfish perspective of my pension a bear run probably isn't that bad. I'm still more than two, maybe three, decades from retirement, so I can continue to drip money in each month while prices are low in the hope that there will be a recovery before the end of the decade.
I can't work out if we're going to have rampant deflation or rampant inflation from this. I think house prices could take a hit mind.
Who knows. But I reckon it will be inflation.
There's almost no velocity of money now though. Unless you're trying to buy PPE, inflation needs to have a large velocity of money and that has almost stopped.
High unemployment + negative economic growth = downwards pressure on inflation, usually. Oil prices are also at recent lows, and as you say spending is grinding to a halt. The main upwards indicator right now is low interest rates, bu they were already pretty low to start with, so the minor cut shouldn't change much. The massive increase in government spending is mostly just replacing what would've been regular income. My vote is for deflation.
So those people who spent all weekend moving money out of their bank accounts are ahead of the game and writing mug on our foreheads for being slow to act on this? Moving it it to what though? What assets won’t depreciate? jewellery? Water?
Remember again there's someone still working in Downing Street who said Britain didn't really need its farms and fishing fleet.
Sigh - that was in the context of an extreme hypothetical - quite common in Operational Research. You ask - if we take X to an extreme, what is the result Y.
In the case of farming - a large amount of money is spent on subsidy. What do we get for it? What would the landscape be, if we removed it?
A classic in this field was the study in WWII proposing to remove all defensive armament from RAF bombers. If you went all the way to redesigning the planes to not have the structural capability to carry the armament, then they would be 100mph faster and have half the crew. While not adopted, due to the politics of the matter, it is noteworthy that the Air Ministry dropped defensive armament for future designs.
If I recall correctly that was the Mossie, and de Havilland had to virtually build it themselves (full size mockup?) before the Air Ministry would order a single prototype.
Yep. And when they did add armament it was offensive rather than defensive. A great plane. I dimly remember seeing one flying at an air show years ago. Wonder if there still are any flying examples around.
There was a major worrying development in the current crisis this weekend. My mum has worked out how to make WhatsApp video calls.
Whoever is out there in the land teaching these skills, we need to isolate them....from all technology.
Talking of learning skills this would be a good time for those who claim they can’t cook to learn, as with the washing machine etc. Also those that leave the ‘finances’ to the other half to get a grip on where they are and how it’s spent. You never know when you are going to need these skills.
There was a major worrying development in the current crisis this weekend. My mum has worked out how to make WhatsApp video calls.
Whoever is out there in the land teaching these skills, we need to isolate them....from all technology.
Talking of learning skills this would be a good time for those who claim they can’t cook to learn, as with the washing machine etc. Also those that leave the ‘finances’ to the other half to get a grip on where they are and how it’s spent. You never know when you are going to need these skills.
For those of you interested in the stock markets, I think we are now about to have a long, long, bear run. The little peaks of unreality, to which the US is particularly prone, are going to be flattened as the reality bites.
We are in WW2 and Great Depression territory. A once-in-a-generation or even century event, the magnitude of which is only slowly dawning on some commentators.
My advice? Don't touch stocks and shares until at least the autumn, possibly longer. Although be ready to go big if a vaccine is proven.
As for withdrawing cash to buy other commodities, that is fantastically daft. Unless you think the banking system is about to crash why get out of cash when the world economies are deflationary? Cash is going up in relative value, not down.
I mean, obviously, Gold would have been great in January when I advised buying it but I'm not sure that it's great value now.
Do you even look at the markets when you think up this drivel?
You're lecturing someone who has been near 100% correct about this pandemic and predicted the crash back in January? Chutzpah!
Obviously last week saw a dead-cat bounce across the pond, hence Gold dipped.
The Dow rebounded off its low of around 18000 a week ago, and the recovery ran out of steam on Friday. It's now at 21000-ish, just off last week's high of 22000.
Gold started the same period sub-1500 and increased steadily through last week, pretty much matching the stock market. It capped out at around 1600 sometime on Thursday, and has been there ever since.
The mini-crash in the gold price took place during the second week in March, at a time when stock markets were also falling. The two have been pretty closely correlated the whole way through March.
I repeat: do you actually look at the markets before posting your predictions?
The one thing I would recommend people do, when we get fed this "I told you so" BS, is to take a peek at the comment history. It's easy to do. Especially in Mystic's case, as there are hardly any posts for January.
None of them predict a stock market crash.
What Mystic did predict in January is:
- Trump's re-election is near certain. A "shoo-in" (quote). - the UK's future lies in trading with China; Huawei should go ahead - Byronic is SeanT
One out of three isn't bad, I suppose.
Fair cop on @Mysticrose's January predictions but where do you see the markets going over the coming months? I can only see down, up, down, down, with an overall bear trend until the autumn at the earliest.
On the medium term picture I actually agree with Mystic (but not as low as 2000) - and have said so multiple times - so why she is offering me a bet on it, I don't know.
It seems to be a failing of this site that we take more notice of the posters who scream in panic - even if the detail (such as it is) in such posts turns out mostly wrong - than of those who make calm and reasoned predictions that turn out nearer the mark?
Markets are notoriously short term in their outlook. They have now normalised the virus crisis and the measures taken so far. They have more faith in the rescue package as an economic stimulus than is justified. But they have yet to take in the likely duration of this crisis and its associated lockdown, nor of the severity of what looks likely to hit the US.
One fact worth noting is that most of the biggest one-day jumps in the US stock market happened in the aftermath of major crises, and before we reached the bottom. We've already had one such, with the Dow's biggest daily rise earlier this month. I suspect we are in for some big swings, up and down, and agree that we surely haven't reached the bottom.
The caveat is that a surprise vaccine or cure breakthrough sends everything back up.
There was a major worrying development in the current crisis this weekend. My mum has worked out how to make WhatsApp video calls.
Whoever is out there in the land teaching these skills, we need to isolate them....from all technology.
Talking of learning skills this would be a good time for those who claim they can’t cook to learn, as with the washing machine etc. Also those that leave the ‘finances’ to the other half to get a grip on where they are and how it’s spent. You never know when you are going to need these skills.
A post appeared on my Facebook page, to the effect that at the end of this crisis 50% of us will have become excellent cooks and 50% alcoholics.
What's the point in that? Why are they wasting time on shit like this?
One thing I’d fervently like to see in a post-virus world is no more of this sort of nonsense, no more asking celebrities what they think of things they know nothing about, no more tweets from them telling us of their feelings, no more arse licking of people whose main talent is having make up applied to them etc, no more of all this fake concern and emoting etc. It is all so vapid and empty.
I hesitate to say this but even the NHS Clapathon made me feel a little uneasy. I am hugely in awe of those working in the NHS especially at this time and expressing our appreciation is a good thing. But providing them with proper equipment and paying them properly is more useful than a clap.
Gestures instead of practical help are cruel.
And what about all the others doing vital work: farmers, delivery drivers, supermarket staff etc etc?
Lady Gaga is not my cup of tea either, but getting people with large social media followings to support social distancing is not facile, it is a good public health approach. You need to reach people where they are.
For those of you interested in the stock markets, I think we are now about to have a long, long, bear run. The little peaks of unreality, to which the US is particularly prone, are going to be flattened as the reality bites.
We are in WW2 and Great Depression territory. A once-in-a-generation or even century event, the magnitude of which is only slowly dawning on some commentators.
My advice? Don't touch stocks and shares until at least the autumn, possibly longer. Although be ready to go big if a vaccine is proven.
As for withdrawing cash to buy other commodities, that is fantastically daft. Unless you think the banking system is about to crash why get out of cash when the world economies are deflationary? Cash is going up in relative value, not down.
I mean, obviously, Gold would have been great in January when I advised buying it but I'm not sure that it's great value now.
Do you even look at the markets when you think up this drivel?
You're lecturing someone who has been near 100% correct about this pandemic and predicted the crash back in January? Chutzpah!
Obviously last week saw a dead-cat bounce across the pond, hence Gold dipped.
The Dow rebounded off its low of around 18000 a week ago, and the recovery ran out of steam on Friday. It's now at 21000-ish, just off last week's high of 22000.
Gold started the same period sub-1500 and increased steadily through last week, pretty much matching the stock market. It capped out at around 1600 sometime on Thursday, and has been there ever since.
The mini-crash in the gold price took place during the second week in March, at a time when stock markets were also falling. The two have been pretty closely correlated the whole way through March.
I repeat: do you actually look at the markets before posting your predictions?
The one thing I would recommend people do, when we get fed this "I told you so" BS, is to take a peek at the comment history. It's easy to do. Especially in Mystic's case, as there are hardly any posts for January.
None of them predict a stock market crash.
What Mystic did predict in January is:
- Trump's re-election is near certain. A "shoo-in" (quote). - the UK's future lies in trading with China; Huawei should go ahead - Byronic is SeanT
One out of three isn't bad, I suppose.
Fair cop on @Mysticrose's January predictions but where do you see the markets going over the coming months? I can only see down, up, down, down, with an overall bear trend until the autumn at the earliest.
Perhaps you should check which posters *did* predict a stock market crash. Might be interesting.
I can't work out if we're going to have rampant deflation or rampant inflation from this. I think house prices could take a hit mind.
Who knows. But I reckon it will be inflation.
There's almost no velocity of money now though. Unless you're trying to buy PPE, inflation needs to have a large velocity of money and that has almost stopped.
High unemployment + negative economic growth = downwards pressure on inflation, usually. Oil prices are also at recent lows, and as you say spending is grinding to a halt. The main upwards indicator right now is low interest rates, bu they were already pretty low to start with, so the minor cut shouldn't change much. The massive increase in government spending is mostly just replacing what would've been regular income. My vote is for deflation.
So those people who spent all weekend moving money out of their bank accounts are ahead of the game and writing mug on our foreheads for being slow to act on this? Moving it it to what though? What assets won’t depreciate? jewellery? Water?
Remember again there's someone still working in Downing Street who said Britain didn't really need its farms and fishing fleet.
Sigh - that was in the context of an extreme hypothetical - quite common in Operational Research. You ask - if we take X to an extreme, what is the result Y.
In the case of farming - a large amount of money is spent on subsidy. What do we get for it? What would the landscape be, if we removed it?
A classic in this field was the study in WWII proposing to remove all defensive armament from RAF bombers. If you went all the way to redesigning the planes to not have the structural capability to carry the armament, then they would be 100mph faster and have half the crew. While not adopted, due to the politics of the matter, it is noteworthy that the Air Ministry dropped defensive armament for future designs.
If I recall correctly that was the Mossie, and de Havilland had to virtually build it themselves (full size mockup?) before the Air Ministry would order a single prototype.
Yep. And when they did add armament it was offensive rather than defensive. A great plane. I dimly remember seeing one flying at an air show years ago. Wonder if there still are any flying examples around.
The project only got the go-ahead after De Havilland promised to try a turret behind the cockpit. One prototype was fitted with a mock up turret - not sure if it flew.
There are several new builds out there - some in progress. Ancient wooden aircraft are quite a danger. The Mosquito was, in fact, quite unpopular in a way with crew - quite a number just fell apart in the air.
The attempts to build a new Hornet highlight the issues..
What's the point in that? Why are they wasting time on shit like this?
One thing I’d fervently like to see in a post-virus world is no more of this sort of nonsense, no more asking celebrities what they think of things they know nothing about, no more tweets from them telling us of their feelings, no more arse licking of people whose main talent is having make up applied to them etc, no more of all this fake concern and emoting etc. It is all so vapid and empty.
I hesitate to say this but even the NHS Clapathon made me feel a little uneasy. I am hugely in awe of those working in the NHS especially at this time and expressing our appreciation is a good thing. But providing them with proper equipment and paying them properly is more useful than a clap.
Gestures instead of practical help are cruel.
And what about all the others doing vital work: farmers, delivery drivers, supermarket staff etc etc?
I agree with you on the clapping, but given that compliance is an important aspect of fighting covid, I can see how celebrity spokespeople could be useful. I'm a little doubtful of how much clout they actually have in influencing behaviour, but the concept seems reasonable.
For those of you interested in the stock markets, I think we are now about to have a long, long, bear run. The little peaks of unreality, to which the US is particularly prone, are going to be flattened as the reality bites.
We are in WW2 and Great Depression territory. A once-in-a-generation or even century event, the magnitude of which is only slowly dawning on some commentators.
My advice? Don't touch stocks and shares until at least the autumn, possibly longer. Although be ready to go big if a vaccine is proven.
As for withdrawing cash to buy other commodities, that is fantastically daft. Unless you think the banking system is about to crash why get out of cash when the world economies are deflationary? Cash is going up in relative value, not down.
I mean, obviously, Gold would have been great in January when I advised buying it but I'm not sure that it's great value now.
Do you even look at the markets when you think up this drivel?
You're lecturing someone who has been near 100% correct about this pandemic and predicted the crash back in January? Chutzpah!
Obviously last week saw a dead-cat bounce across the pond, hence Gold dipped.
The Dow rebounded off its low of around 18000 a week ago, and the recovery ran out of steam on Friday. It's now at 21000-ish, just off last week's high of 22000.
Gold started the same period sub-1500 and increased steadily through last week, pretty much matching the stock market. It capped out at around 1600 sometime on Thursday, and has been there ever since.
The mini-crash in the gold price took place during the second week in March, at a time when stock markets were also falling. The two have been pretty closely correlated the whole way through March.
I repeat: do you actually look at the markets before posting your predictions?
The one thing I would recommend people do, when we get fed this "I told you so" BS, is to take a peek at the comment history. It's easy to do. Especially in Mystic's case, as there are hardly any posts for January.
None of them predict a stock market crash.
What Mystic did predict in January is:
- Trump's re-election is near certain. A "shoo-in" (quote). - the UK's future lies in trading with China; Huawei should go ahead - Byronic is SeanT
One out of three isn't bad, I suppose.
Well, the last one isn`t saying much if Mysticrose is also SeanT.
The Nightingale Hospital in London really looks incredible. What a fantastic achievement all around.
It seems a good model for London full stop. Why build all these pissy little local general hospitals? Having said that Whipps Cross is a bit of a mega hospital and certainly used to be a shit hole (my grandparents spent time there, and my grandfather died there) so maybe there is a size you don't want to go above for the long term.
Lived in the catchment area for Whipps Cross until 2002. The locals actively avoided where possible - to the extent of asking ambulances to take them to North Mid hospital if possible. Notorious for a disorganised A&E and the only decent service was the Maternity. Things got so bad there were rumours they were going to close it down as it was so dysfunctional. Apparently they claim its improved, although my mum who is retired nurse is sceptical.
Life hasn't stopped completely. If things can still be progressed in some fashion they should be.
How on Earth can that be justified as a priority. If government has spare capacity there is no shortage of more urgent and more important things for the government to work on.
I dont know how much resource it would take up or whether it is being treated as a priority or not. It may be it does not take up all that much given the early stages of the process, and there may be limits to how many people can be usefully diverted onto more critical Covid 19 tasks. Its like getting 1000 volunteers - it might be great, but you probably cannot use them all effectively.
You're acting like literally nothing else may be permitted to happen while this is going on.
I dont think it's a priority. But that doesnt mean it's an outrage that its happening nor a sign that focus on more important things is not being given due attention.
who would miss Gove , the squeaky little rat does nothing other than talk bollox anyway.
I get the impression social distancing is a personal responsibility in Sweden rather than government enforced. You are expected to do it.
I wouldn't interpret any Swedish success in minimising infection as a green light to remove restrictions elsewhere, unless people take a similar personal responsibility.
Presumably the Swedish government reserves the right to impose measures if the the advisory ones aren't effective.
It does highlight the personal liberty question. We need to take more personal responsibility if we want to avoid governments removing our liberties.
No, they are doing things substantively differently. guardian 2 days ago
While every other country in Europe has been ordered into ever more stringent coronavirus lockdown, Sweden has remained the exception. Schools, kindergartens, bars, restaurants, ski resorts, sports clubs, hairdressers: all remain open, weeks after everything closed down in next door Denmark and Norway.
I think you (and others) are missing my point. And because of that people are likely to draw the wrong conclusions from the Swedish experiment.Swedes are working from home just as they are elsewhere. If they do go to cafes etc they maintain strict social distancing on their personal responsibility. Whether it works in reducing transmissions depends on the effectiveness of that collective personal responsibility.
I regularly chat to a long time friend in Sweden over skype while she is out for a walk with her baby. She doesn't think people are paying much attention to social distancing over there and its common to hear her shouting at people for not doing so. She also tells me that cafe's and bars are being used as normal.
Is she right? No idea as its voice only but you seem to be making the assumption swedes are actually doing it.
What's the point in that? Why are they wasting time on shit like this?
One thing I’d fervently like to see in a post-virus world is no more of this sort of nonsense, no more asking celebrities what they think of things they know nothing about, no more tweets from them telling us of their feelings, no more arse licking of people whose main talent is having make up applied to them etc, no more of all this fake concern and emoting etc. It is all so vapid and empty.
I hesitate to say this but even the NHS Clapathon made me feel a little uneasy. I am hugely in awe of those working in the NHS especially at this time and expressing our appreciation is a good thing. But providing them with proper equipment and paying them properly is more useful than a clap.
Gestures instead of practical help are cruel.
And what about all the others doing vital work: farmers, delivery drivers, supermarket staff etc etc?
Lady Gaga is not my cup of tea either, but getting people with large social media followings to support social distancing is not facile, it is a good public health approach. You need to reach people where they are.
There is also the thought that people who neither read a newspaper, 'real' or on-line, or watch TV news are quite likely to 'follow' celebrities on line.
What's the point in that? Why are they wasting time on shit like this?
One thing I’d fervently like to see in a post-virus world is no more of this sort of nonsense, no more asking celebrities what they think of things they know nothing about, no more tweets from them telling us of their feelings, no more arse licking of people whose main talent is having make up applied to them etc, no more of all this fake concern and emoting etc. It is all so vapid and empty.
I hesitate to say this but even the NHS Clapathon made me feel a little uneasy. I am hugely in awe of those working in the NHS especially at this time and expressing our appreciation is a good thing. But providing them with proper equipment and paying them properly is more useful than a clap.
Gestures instead of practical help are cruel.
And what about all the others doing vital work: farmers, delivery drivers, supermarket staff etc etc?
Lady Gaga is not my cup of tea either, but getting people with large social media followings to support social distancing is not facile, it is a good public health approach. You need to reach people where they are.
How are you feeling today Foxy and have you got your results back yet?
For those of you interested in the stock markets, I think we are now about to have a long, long, bear run. The little peaks of unreality, to which the US is particularly prone, are going to be flattened as the reality bites.
We are in WW2 and Great Depression territory. A once-in-a-generation or even century event, the magnitude of which is only slowly dawning on some commentators.
My advice? Don't touch stocks and shares until at least the autumn, possibly longer. Although be ready to go big if a vaccine is proven.
As for withdrawing cash to buy other commodities, that is fantastically daft. Unless you think the banking system is about to crash why get out of cash when the world economies are deflationary? Cash is going up in relative value, not down.
I mean, obviously, Gold would have been great in January when I advised buying it but I'm not sure that it's great value now.
Do you even look at the markets when you think up this drivel?
You're lecturing someone who has been near 100% correct about this pandemic and predicted the crash back in January? Chutzpah!
Obviously last week saw a dead-cat bounce across the pond, hence Gold dipped.
The Dow rebounded off its low of around 18000 a week ago, and the recovery ran out of steam on Friday. It's now at 21000-ish, just off last week's high of 22000.
Gold started the same period sub-1500 and increased steadily through last week, pretty much matching the stock market. It capped out at around 1600 sometime on Thursday, and has been there ever since.
The mini-crash in the gold price took place during the second week in March, at a time when stock markets were also falling. The two have been pretty closely correlated the whole way through March.
I repeat: do you actually look at the markets before posting your predictions?
The one thing I would recommend people do, when we get fed this "I told you so" BS, is to take a peek at the comment history. It's easy to do. Especially in Mystic's case, as there are hardly any posts for January.
None of them predict a stock market crash.
What Mystic did predict in January is:
- Trump's re-election is near certain. A "shoo-in" (quote). - the UK's future lies in trading with China; Huawei should go ahead - Byronic is SeanT
One out of three isn't bad, I suppose.
Fair cop on @Mysticrose's January predictions but where do you see the markets going over the coming months? I can only see down, up, down, down, with an overall bear trend until the autumn at the earliest.
I was 90% cash from early Feb, but started buying up a few recovery type stocks, particularly ones with low debt and resilient cash flow through this period.
Too early? Perhaps, but some good quality companies are quite cheap at the moment. Less so in the USA, where the market was much more pesky.
Too early, in the sense that we haven't yet reached the bottom? Most probably. Too early, in the sense that you won't make a profit in the long run, assuming you pick companies that will re-emerge relatively unscathed, no.
What's the point in that? Why are they wasting time on shit like this?
One thing I’d fervently like to see in a post-virus world is no more of this sort of nonsense, no more asking celebrities what they think of things they know nothing about, no more tweets from them telling us of their feelings, no more arse licking of people whose main talent is having make up applied to them etc, no more of all this fake concern and emoting etc. It is all so vapid and empty.
I hesitate to say this but even the NHS Clapathon made me feel a little uneasy. I am hugely in awe of those working in the NHS especially at this time and expressing our appreciation is a good thing. But providing them with proper equipment and paying them properly is more useful than a clap.
Gestures instead of practical help are cruel.
And what about all the others doing vital work: farmers, delivery drivers, supermarket staff etc etc?
Lady Gaga is not my cup of tea either, but getting people with large social media followings to support social distancing is not facile, it is a good public health approach. You need to reach people where they are.
Has Lady Gaga actually said anything useful or is it more about a bureaucrat boasting about speaking to someone he’d never normally get near?
People with enormous houses telling those living in poky flats to social distance is a very Marie Antoinette-ish approach to a serious problem. IMO.
The Nightingale Hospital in London really looks incredible. What a fantastic achievement all around.
It seems a good model for London full stop. Why build all these pissy little local general hospitals? Having said that Whipps Cross is a bit of a mega hospital and certainly used to be a shit hole (my grandparents spent time there, and my grandfather died there) so maybe there is a size you don't want to go above for the long term.
Lived in the catchment area for Whipps Cross until 2002. The locals actively avoided where possible - to the extent of asking ambulances to take them to North Mid hospital if possible. Notorious for a disorganised A&E and the only decent service was the Maternity. Things got so bad there were rumours they were going to close it down as it was so dysfunctional. Apparently they claim its improved, although my mum who is retired nurse is sceptical.
Me too. A&E at a weekend at Whipps was like a refugee camp. Thankfully there are ways to avoid it, and during my long time in East London I got treated at Barts, Royal London, Moorfields, and a couple of private hospitals, and managed almost to avoid Whipps altogether. That said, the hospice operation at Whipps, where my partner died many years ago, is excellent.
The Nightingale Hospital in London really looks incredible. What a fantastic achievement all around.
It seems a good model for London full stop. Why build all these pissy little local general hospitals? Having said that Whipps Cross is a bit of a mega hospital and certainly used to be a shit hole (my grandparents spent time there, and my grandfather died there) so maybe there is a size you don't want to go above for the long term.
Lived in the catchment area for Whipps Cross until 2002. The locals actively avoided where possible - to the extent of asking ambulances to take them to North Mid hospital if possible. Notorious for a disorganised A&E and the only decent service was the Maternity. Things got so bad there were rumours they were going to close it down as it was so dysfunctional. Apparently they claim its improved, although my mum who is retired nurse is sceptical.
Me and David Beckham were born there and we turned out ok. Or at least I did.
For those of you interested in the stock markets, I think we are now about to have a long, long, bear run. The little peaks of unreality, to which the US is particularly prone, are going to be flattened as the reality bites.
We are in WW2 and Great Depression territory. A once-in-a-generation or even century event, the magnitude of which is only slowly dawning on some commentators.
My advice? Don't touch stocks and shares until at least the autumn, possibly longer. Although be ready to go big if a vaccine is proven.
As for withdrawing cash to buy other commodities, that is fantastically daft. Unless you think the banking system is about to crash why get out of cash when the world economies are deflationary? Cash is going up in relative value, not down.
I mean, obviously, Gold would have been great in January when I advised buying it but I'm not sure that it's great value now.
Do you even look at the markets when you think up this drivel?
You're lecturing someone who has been near 100% correct about this pandemic and predicted the crash back in January? Chutzpah!
Obviously last week saw a dead-cat bounce across the pond, hence Gold dipped.
The Dow rebounded off its low of around 18000 a week ago, and the recovery ran out of steam on Friday. It's now at 21000-ish, just off last week's high of 22000.
Gold started the same period sub-1500 and increased steadily through last week, pretty much matching the stock market. It capped out at around 1600 sometime on Thursday, and has been there ever since.
The mini-crash in the gold price took place during the second week in March, at a time when stock markets were also falling. The two have been pretty closely correlated the whole way through March.
I repeat: do you actually look at the markets before posting your predictions?
The one thing I would recommend people do, when we get fed this "I told you so" BS, is to take a peek at the comment history. It's easy to do. Especially in Mystic's case, as there are hardly any posts for January.
None of them predict a stock market crash.
What Mystic did predict in January is:
- Trump's re-election is near certain. A "shoo-in" (quote). - the UK's future lies in trading with China; Huawei should go ahead - Byronic is SeanT
One out of three isn't bad, I suppose.
Fair cop on @Mysticrose's January predictions but where do you see the markets going over the coming months? I can only see down, up, down, down, with an overall bear trend until the autumn at the earliest.
Perhaps you should check which posters *did* predict a stock market crash. Might be interesting.
I asked whether I should sell EasyJet on the spreads at 1115p and was told I’d missed the boat
For those of you interested in the stock markets, I think we are now about to have a long, long, bear run. The little peaks of unreality, to which the US is particularly prone, are going to be flattened as the reality bites.
We are in WW2 and Great Depression territory. A once-in-a-generation or even century event, the magnitude of which is only slowly dawning on some commentators.
My advice? Don't touch stocks and shares until at least the autumn, possibly longer. Although be ready to go big if a vaccine is proven.
As for withdrawing cash to buy other commodities, that is fantastically daft. Unless you think the banking system is about to crash why get out of cash when the world economies are deflationary? Cash is going up in relative value, not down.
I mean, obviously, Gold would have been great in January when I advised buying it but I'm not sure that it's great value now.
Do you even look at the markets when you think up this drivel?
You're lecturing someone who has been near 100% correct about this pandemic and predicted the crash back in January? Chutzpah!
Obviously last week saw a dead-cat bounce across the pond, hence Gold dipped.
The Dow rebounded off its low of around 18000 a week ago, and the recovery ran out of steam on Friday. It's now at 21000-ish, just off last week's high of 22000.
Gold started the same period sub-1500 and increased steadily through last week, pretty much matching the stock market. It capped out at around 1600 sometime on Thursday, and has been there ever since.
The mini-crash in the gold price took place during the second week in March, at a time when stock markets were also falling. The two have been pretty closely correlated the whole way through March.
I repeat: do you actually look at the markets before posting your predictions?
The one thing I would recommend people do, when we get fed this "I told you so" BS, is to take a peek at the comment history. It's easy to do. Especially in Mystic's case, as there are hardly any posts for January.
None of them predict a stock market crash.
What Mystic did predict in January is:
- Trump's re-election is near certain. A "shoo-in" (quote). - the UK's future lies in trading with China; Huawei should go ahead - Byronic is SeanT
One out of three isn't bad, I suppose.
Well, the last one isn`t saying much if Mysticrose is also SeanT.
I'd take it as proof that she isn't (as if being up bright and early each morning isn't sufficient).
There was a major worrying development in the current crisis this weekend. My mum has worked out how to make WhatsApp video calls.
Whoever is out there in the land teaching these skills, we need to isolate them....from all technology.
Talking of learning skills this would be a good time for those who claim they can’t cook to learn, as with the washing machine etc. Also those that leave the ‘finances’ to the other half to get a grip on where they are and how it’s spent. You never know when you are going to need these skills.
A post appeared on my Facebook page, to the effect that at the end of this crisis 50% of us will have become excellent cooks and 50% alcoholics.
Floyd's shade would beg to differ on the idea that you can't do both...
Comments
I think we will be filling the Nightingale 10x over. And that's just London.
Because criticism of the NHS means you are an *evil* person, and also perhaps problems with the internal culture, when things go wrong, they go wrong really badly and large numbers of people are killed or maimed by mistake. Admitting to the issue, never mind correcting it, becomes very very difficult.
A more granular service is one way of managing that risk.
The gold price rose 1.8% over last week, as well, although it did fall for the latter part of the week.
The reason for seeking to get out of cash is the imposition of negative interest on cash balances. Far fetched, perhaps, but some fear it (imposing a cashless society is achievable, now), and everything happening right now would once have seemed far fetched.
While every other country in Europe has been ordered into ever more stringent coronavirus lockdown, Sweden has remained the exception. Schools, kindergartens, bars, restaurants, ski resorts, sports clubs, hairdressers: all remain open, weeks after everything closed down in next door Denmark and Norway.
I'm somewhat puzzled by this. But then, I wasn't expecting it to fall so much either.
It was just on the 28th February he referred it as a 'hoax'
O tempora. O mores.
*Even those criticising the UK government and its response to the crisis would have to allow that it is several orders of magnitude better than Trump & Co fighting the individual States.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3731285/
The problem is that such provision requires expertise and facilities such as 24 hour interventional Radiology, and can only be staffed in units serving a million population or more.
Places like the IoW with 120 000 population have much worse outcomes, but geography is the issue there, and in places like Cornwall. Less so in some of the smaller NHS Trusts in the UK, surviving as in marginal constituencies despite poor outcomes.
Gold started the same period sub-1500 and increased steadily through last week, pretty much matching the stock market. It capped out at around 1600 sometime on Thursday, and has been there ever since.
The mini-crash in the gold price took place during the second week in March, at a time when stock markets were also falling. The two have been pretty closely correlated the whole way through March.
I repeat: do you actually look at the markets before posting your predictions?
Now Trump has changed his mind, the traders are safe to reflect reality as well and still be accepted as republicans.
https://twitter.com/policewarr/status/1244163251799195649?s=21
Personally, I do not blame China for the current pandemic, just a tiny number of people in Wuhan market.
I'm not really sure why you think you should take a pop when I've been so spot on about this virus except either a) you're grumpy about lockdown b) you're losing money or c) jealousy. Or a combination of all three. But take a pop at something else not someone who has got this right.
The markets are on a bear run. Normally you get mini peaks as people short but even the dead cat bounces are likely now to go as reality finally dawns: stocks and shares are going to slide and slide.
As I mentioned a while back, I don't think we will bottom out on the markets before November and I predict the FTSE 100 will do so below 2000.
I've been right all the way on this, so think what you like.
None of them predict a stock market crash.
What Mystic did predict in January is:
- Trump's re-election is near certain. A "shoo-in" (quote).
- the UK's future lies in trading with China; Huawei should go ahead
- Byronic is SeanT
One out of three isn't bad, I suppose.
So, yes I have. Sorry you can't swallow your pride to admit that Eadric and I were right and you were wrong.
Envy isn't a good trait.
Mind you, nor is pride
Have a good day and don't buy shares unless you zone in on some very specific firms who are making hay.
xx
My guess would be the 'very enthusiastic' rating is less important than the 'not so/not at all' rating -> they are the people at greatest risk of not voting...
Will have to pick this up later. I have writing to do.
What are they going to do without London to hold their hands and explain the more difficult bits?
Given that you're airing predictions in a public forum that others might take seriously, and taking action over, it's important to challenge obvious nonsense. Like when you're claiming a success over something you weren't actually right over. People deserve the context.
Their disagreement was on the hyperbole of 1-2 million deaths in the UK, not whether shares were a sell.
Too early? Perhaps, but some good quality companies are quite cheap at the moment. Less so in the USA, where the market was much more pesky.
I wasn't wrong, I was more right than either of you, hence my annoyance. I just try not to shout about it quite so much, as no-one likes an "I told you so". But an "I told you so" who actually didn't is far worse.
I hesitate to say this but even the NHS Clapathon made me feel a little uneasy. I am hugely in awe of those working in the NHS especially at this time and expressing our appreciation is a good thing. But providing them with proper equipment and paying them properly is more useful than a clap.
Gestures instead of practical help are cruel.
And what about all the others doing vital work: farmers, delivery drivers, supermarket staff etc etc?
My coat?
812.
It seems to be a failing of this site that we take more notice of the posters who scream in panic - even if the detail (such as it is) in such posts turns out mostly wrong - than of those who make calm and reasoned predictions that turn out nearer the mark?
Markets are notoriously short term in their outlook. They have now normalised the virus crisis and the measures taken so far. They have more faith in the rescue package as an economic stimulus than is justified. But they have yet to take in the likely duration of this crisis and its associated lockdown, nor of the severity of what looks likely to hit the US.
One fact worth noting is that most of the biggest one-day jumps in the US stock market happened in the aftermath of major crises, and before we reached the bottom. We've already had one such, with the Dow's biggest daily rise earlier this month. I suspect we are in for some big swings, up and down, and agree that we surely haven't reached the bottom.
The caveat is that a surprise vaccine or cure breakthrough sends everything back up.
There are several new builds out there - some in progress. Ancient wooden aircraft are quite a danger. The Mosquito was, in fact, quite unpopular in a way with crew - quite a number just fell apart in the air.
The attempts to build a new Hornet highlight the issues..
Is she right? No idea as its voice only but you seem to be making the assumption swedes are actually doing it.
It's a bit odd 'getting' a 10% pay rise only to see it go away again (although rather low on the priority list right now).
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1244499913347674117?s=19
People with enormous houses telling those living in poky flats to social distance is a very Marie Antoinette-ish approach to a serious problem. IMO.