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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ConHome survey: Tory party members getting more gloomy about their prospects for GE 2015

The totals in the chart above aggregate those expecting a majority (now 24%), those expecting a CON minority government (20%) and those who think that there’ll be another coalition (18%).

Read the full story here

Quincel

Just to clarify, is this a sampled poll of members?

edmundintokyo

How low do we reckon it has to go for 45 MPs to send letters to the chairman of the 1922 committee? Presumably he already has a bunch on file.

SouthamObserver

edmundintokyo said:

How low do we reckon it has to go for 45 MPs to send letters to the chairman of the 1922 committee? Presumably he already has a bunch on file.

Any Tory MP doing that would be close to certifiably insane and completely unfit to hold any kind of elected office.

Quincel

edmundintokyo said:

How low do we reckon it has to go for 45 MPs to send letters to the chairman of the 1922 committee? Presumably he already has a bunch on file.

Nah, not a chance. Not only do Tory MPs know full well how bad disunity looks to the public, but as long as the economy is growing at a good pace they will believe that the recovery will bring the voters back to them.

They may even be right, though for my bets I hope not.

MikeSmithson

Quincel said:

Just to clarify, is this a sampled poll of members?

This is how ConHome describes their method "Over 700 of them responded to the survey. Their replies are checked against those received from our control panel, which was put together by YouGov."

SouthamObserver

tim said:

SouthamObserver said:

edmundintokyo said:

How low do we reckon it has to go for 45 MPs to send letters to the chairman of the 1922 committee? Presumably he already has a bunch on file.

Any Tory MP doing that would be close to certifiably insane and completely unfit to hold any kind of elected office.

Well there's a hundred of them to choose from.

It's so like Labour in the 70s and 80s.

MaxPB

Not surprising. The Tories don't have an answer on the strong "cost of living" message. The AS did little to nothing to address it. Ripping my own post yesterday:

GDP growth statistics mean nothing to Mondeo man and his family. What matters to him is the shocking rise in all utility bills over the last 5-7 years, what matters to him is the fact that he seems to be working longer and harder but his pay has not gone up and finally what matters to him is that his children seem to have worse prospects in education and jobs than he did when growing up. The Tories and Lib Dems need to get back to basics and examine exactly what man on the street is all about. He cares little for the minutia of economic statistics and the Chancellor can parrot "1.4% growth" until he is blue in the face, but when people's incomes aren't going up quickly and every other cost is, either people don't believe it or they think the benefit is minimal.

That's the problem. The party leadership have lost touch with the man on the street, the white van man who reads The Sun. Members have realised this already and know that without those votes it is a one way ticket to opposition.

perdix

Yebut, this article shows data that disposable income is rising. Lefties, don't count your chickens yet....
http://www.brackenworld.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/what-chancellors-do-and-dont-influence.html

Scrapheap_as_was

Nice axis! A bit of context would be to see this longer than just 4 data points too perhaps???

Today's result heaps even more pressure on Spurs and AVB - we couldn't beat relegation fodder like Man U even when we were playing at the Lane last week!

Mind you, no shame losing at home to the Geordies 1-0.....

The Goners defeat at OT was some achievement.

Millsy

Still higher than the low point in March when only 26% thought the Tories will be in power after 2015. The figure now is 55%.

http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2013/03/only-7-of-tory-members-think-cameron-can-win-a-majority-in-2015.html

MaxPB

perdix said:

Yebut, this article shows data that disposable income is rising. Lefties, don't count your chickens yet....
http://www.brackenworld.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/what-chancellors-do-and-dont-influence.html

The OBR statistic for disposable income includes a bunch of unrelated stuff according to the IFS who have looked at the detail. I'll side with the IFS over Osborne on this because he loves to use dodgy statistics.

The simple facts are - costs are rising, corporate profits are rising, and the net cash position of businesses is appreciably better than previously. All the while wages have risen slower than inflation. That is why Labour's message has resonated so well with voters, even if their energy policy is a load of crap, it has hit home because it gets a message across, companies making huge profits on the back of ripping off consumers. Companies are making huge profits on the back of ripping off their employees. Anecdotally, we are finding it very, very easy to poach top talent from British software firms at the moment because pay growth in UK firms has been very, very poor so global companies are finding it easy to poach top talent.

Until the Tories come up with an answer to this question they will continue to get beaten over and over again.

Scrapheap_as_was

So tempted to lump on Man C at 3/4 at the injury ravaged Saints... £75 for each £100...

perdix

@MaxPB - you obviously choose the data source which suits your political bias!

Scrapheap_as_was

Scrapheap_as_was said:

So tempted to lump on Man C at 3/4 at the injury ravaged Saints... £75 for each £100...

Didn't take long. Chelsea up too...

AndreaParma_82

Lucy Frazer is selected by South East Cambridgeshire Conservatives to replace retiring MP. She will defend a 10.3% majority over LD in 2015.

Jo McCarron wins Labour selection in Kingswood (Con maj 5.1%).

AveryLP

MaxPB said:

perdix said:

Yebut, this article shows data that disposable income is rising. Lefties, don't count your chickens yet....
http://www.brackenworld.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/what-chancellors-do-and-dont-influence.html

The OBR statistic for disposable income includes a bunch of unrelated stuff according to the IFS who have looked at the detail. I'll side with the IFS over Osborne on this because he loves to use dodgy statistics.

...

Max

The Real Households' Disposable Income (RHDI) statistic is produced by the ONS not the OBR although the latter quotes ONS outcomes and produces its own forecasts of future RHDI levels.

RHDI is a composite statistic based on higher level, previously publisihed official metrics, such as the inflation indices and employee compensation figures.

The "bunch of unrelated stuff" includes net property income (rents, mortgage interest etc), as well as taxes and benefits . I find it difficult to believe how such additional components of disposable income can be "unrelated" to the costs of living and would be interested in seeing how the IFS reached this conclusion.

The idea that Osborne is using "dodgy statistics" when he uses RHDI as a metric for household living costs is absurd. The RHDI figures are produced by the ONS and not the Treasury. There is no reason to believe that the ONS is anything but an independent, competent and reliable source of information upon which the government, economics commentators and public can rely.

If the RHDI has any weakness it is that it is that the components are aggregated and averaged for the entire population and therefore do not reflect regional or socio-demographic variations. That said they are the most reliable source of official data on the living costs that we have available to us.

Here is a youtube video produced by the ONS in 2011 which explains how the RHDI is constructed:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e2eQPzTyApY

Verulamius

My feeling is that the current bounce in the economy has been caused by the borrowing for lending scheme which started 18 months ago. This has loosened monetary policy, helped cheaper mortgages, reduced saving rates and created a small consumer boom.

But borrowing for lending is now going to be focused on business lending, not housing. Will that mean the foot has been taken off the accelerator, causing the economy to slow?

AndyJS

This is new — Twitter links for Labour candidates selected for GE2015:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDR1NHZVS0ozZkpaYVlPV2d4WHR5ZXc&usp=drive_web#gid=0

AndyJS

Su Maddock selected for Labour in Torbay:

twitter.com/Sumaddock/status/409316818051145728

AndreaParma_82

Council leader David Mackintosh selected by Northampton South Tories

isam

The stats and data say the economy is improving, but it doesn't feel that way to the man in the street.. Labour posters point out the man on the street and smear the stats

The stats and data say mass immigration is a good thing economically, but it doesn't feel that way to the man in the street... Labour posters smear the man in the street and point out the stats

SouthamObserver

isam said:

The stats and data say the economy is improving, but it doesn't feel that way to the man in the street.. Labour posters point out the man on the street and smear the stats

The stats and data say mass immigration is a good thing economically, but it doesn't feel that way to the man in the street... Labour posters smear the man in the street and point out the stats

If you look at the polls there is actually a big disconnect in findings on immigration. A lot of people think it is a big issue facing the country, a far lower percentage believe it is one that affects them and their families. The gap between the two is very wide.

AndyJS

Maria Caulfield selected by the Tories in Lewes to take on LD MP Norman Baker:

https://twitter.com/mariacaulfield

rcs1000

isam said:

The stats and data say the economy is improving, but it doesn't feel that way to the man in the street.. Labour posters point out the man on the street and smear the stats

The stats and data say mass immigration is a good thing economically, but it doesn't feel that way to the man in the street... Labour posters smear the man in the street and point out the stats

Facts and data say homeopathy doesn't work. Doesn't seem like that to the man on the street.

AndyJS

Good few days for women candidates being selected for GE2015, for both the Tories and Labour.

perdix

AveryLP said:

MaxPB said:

perdix said:

Yebut, this article shows data that disposable income is rising. Lefties, don't count your chickens yet....
http://www.brackenworld.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/what-chancellors-do-and-dont-influence.html

The OBR statistic for disposable income includes a bunch of unrelated stuff according to the IFS who have looked at the detail. I'll side with the IFS over Osborne on this because he loves to use dodgy statistics.

...

Max

The Real Households' Disposable Income (RHDI) statistic is produced by the ONS not the OBR although the latter quotes ONS outcomes and produces its own forecasts of future RHDI levels.

RHDI is a composite statistic based on higher level, previously publisihed official metrics, such as the inflation indices and employee compensation figures.

The "bunch of unrelated stuff" includes net property income (rents, mortgage interest etc), as well as taxes and benefits . I find it difficult to believe how such additional components of disposable income can be "unrelated" to the costs of living and would be interested in seeing how the IFS reached this conclusion.

The idea that Osborne is using "dodgy statistics" when he uses RHDI as a metric for household living costs is absurd. The RHDI figures are produced by the ONS and not the Treasury. There is no reason to believe that the ONS is anything but an independent, competent and reliable source of information upon which the government, economics commentators and public can rely.

If the RHDI has any weakness it is that it is that the components are aggregated and averaged for the entire population and therefore do not reflect regional or socio-demographic variations. That said they are the most reliable source of official data on the living costs that we have available to us.

Here is a youtube video produced by the ONS in 2011 which explains how the RHDI is constructed:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e2eQPzTyApY

Once again ARL sorts out the facts .

rcs1000

AndreaParma_82 said:

Lucy Frazer is selected by South East Cambridgeshire Conservatives to replace retiring MP. She will defend a 10.3% majority over LD in 2015.

Jo McCarron wins Labour selection in Kingswood (Con maj 5.1%).

Is that Lucy Frazer, QC? if so, I was at university with her, and she was terrifically nice

Scrapheap_as_was

This doesn't fit the smears...

Tim Montgomerie‏@TimMontgomerie5s
Mrs Thatchjer opposed sanctions but always opposed apartheid --- and supported release of Nelson Mandela …http://fc95d419f4478b3b6e5f-3f71d0fe2b653c4f00f32175760e96e7.r87.cf1.rackcdn.com/6D1A4F11C9AD4BD58A3493B01077D862.pdff00f32175760e96e7.r87.cf1.rackcdn.com/6D1A4F11C9AD4B… … (PDF)

isam

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

The stats and data say the economy is improving, but it doesn't feel that way to the man in the street.. Labour posters point out the man on the street and smear the stats

The stats and data say mass immigration is a good thing economically, but it doesn't feel that way to the man in the street... Labour posters smear the man in the street and point out the stats

If you look at the polls there is actually a big disconnect in findings on immigration. A lot of people think it is a big issue facing the country, a far lower percentage believe it is one that affects them and their families. The gap between the two is very wide.

That's because most people don't live in areas affected by mass immigration, but they are worried about its affect on the whole country, and IW Would think they worry about it affecting their neighbourhood in the future.

But my point is, when Question Time audiences in Boston tell of their despair at living in a disjointed community, posters on here are quick to dismiss their feelings and quote economic data. That is because mass immigration is a left wing favourite, although I know you have admitted it was a failure, fair play to you.

When the economy is recovering according to stats, Labour posters point out how it feels to an ordinary man on the street.

When ordinary people tell of mass immigration ruining their lives, Labour point to the stats

isam

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

The stats and data say the economy is improving, but it doesn't feel that way to the man in the street.. Labour posters point out the man on the street and smear the stats

The stats and data say mass immigration is a good thing economically, but it doesn't feel that way to the man in the street... Labour posters smear the man in the street and point out the stats

Facts and data say homeopathy doesn't work. Doesn't seem like that to the man on the street.

The troll button doesn't seem to be working, but this nonsense about homeopathy from the unfunny RCS is trolling

AndyJS

rcs1000 said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

Lucy Frazer is selected by South East Cambridgeshire Conservatives to replace retiring MP. She will defend a 10.3% majority over LD in 2015.

Jo McCarron wins Labour selection in Kingswood (Con maj 5.1%).

Is that Lucy Frazer, QC? if so, I was at university with her, and she was terrifically nice

She's a barrister and deputy chairman of Hampstead & Kilburn Conservatives:

http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2013/12/from-harryph-lucy-frazer-chosen-as-conservative-candidate-for-south-east-cambridgeshire.html

http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/News/Barrister-Lucy-Frazer-to-succeed-Sir-Jim-Paice-as-Conservative-candidate-for-South-East-Cambridgeshire-20131207144322.htm

http://www.southsquare.com/2010/06/lucy-frazer/

JohnO

rcs1000 said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

Lucy Frazer is selected by South East Cambridgeshire Conservatives to replace retiring MP. She will defend a 10.3% majority over LD in 2015.

Jo McCarron wins Labour selection in Kingswood (Con maj 5.1%).

Is that Lucy Frazer, QC? if so, I was at university with her, and she was terrifically nice

It is. So we have a terrifically nice candidate for the terrifically nice party.

SouthamObserver

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

The stats and data say the economy is improving, but it doesn't feel that way to the man in the street.. Labour posters point out the man on the street and smear the stats

The stats and data say mass immigration is a good thing economically, but it doesn't feel that way to the man in the street... Labour posters smear the man in the street and point out the stats

If you look at the polls there is actually a big disconnect in findings on immigration. A lot of people think it is a big issue facing the country, a far lower percentage believe it is one that affects them and their families. The gap between the two is very wide.

That's because most people don't live in areas affected by mass immigration, but they are worried about its affect on the whole country, and IW Would think they worry about it affecting their neighbourhood in the future.

But my point is, when Question Time audiences in Boston tell of their despair at living in a disjointed community, posters on here are quick to dismiss their feelings and quote economic data. That is because mass immigration is a left wing favourite, although I know you have admitted it was a failure, fair play to you.

When the economy is recovering according to stats, Labour posters point out how it feels to an ordinary man on the street.

When ordinary people tell of mass immigration ruining their lives, Labour point to the stats

Fair enough. Labour got it wrong on immigration. The Tories are getting it wrong on the recovery. In both cases perception and experience are politically much more powerful than stats - and, in many ways, rightly so.

isam

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

The stats and data say the economy is improving, but it doesn't feel that way to the man in the street.. Labour posters point out the man on the street and smear the stats

The stats and data say mass immigration is a good thing economically, but it doesn't feel that way to the man in the street... Labour posters smear the man in the street and point out the stats

If you look at the polls there is actually a big disconnect in findings on immigration. A lot of people think it is a big issue facing the country, a far lower percentage believe it is one that affects them and their families. The gap between the two is very wide.

That's because most people don't live in areas affected by mass immigration, but they are worried about its affect on the whole country, and IW Would think they worry about it affecting their neighbourhood in the future.

But my point is, when Question Time audiences in Boston tell of their despair at living in a disjointed community, posters on here are quick to dismiss their feelings and quote economic data. That is because mass immigration is a left wing favourite, although I know you have admitted it was a failure, fair play to you.

When the economy is recovering according to stats, Labour posters point out how it feels to an ordinary man on the street.

When ordinary people tell of mass immigration ruining their lives, Labour point to the stats

Fair enough. Labour got it wrong on immigration. The Tories are getting it wrong on the recovery. In both cases perception and experience are politically much more powerful than stats - and, in many ways, rightly so.

"In both cases perception and experience are politically much more powerful than stats - and, in many ways, rightly so."

Happy to say I wholeheartedly agree with you.

Governments aren't just the nations bank manager, the feelings of individuals and families should outweigh balance sheets and long term projections. Well that's how I see it anyway.

MaxPB

Scrapheap_as_was said:

This doesn't fit the smears...

Tim Montgomerie‏@TimMontgomerie5s
Mrs Thatchjer opposed sanctions but always opposed apartheid --- and supported release of Nelson Mandela …http://fc95d419f4478b3b6e5f-3f71d0fe2b653c4f00f32175760e96e7.r87.cf1.rackcdn.com/6D1A4F11C9AD4BD58A3493B01077D862.pdff00f32175760e96e7.r87.cf1.rackcdn.com/6D1A4F11C9AD4B… … (PDF)

Fixed link:

Letter from Margaret Thatcher to South African President, P.W. Botha

AndreaParma_82

According to a tweet by a Dollis Hill Cllr (Alison Hopkins), LD shortlist for Brent Central is

Lauren Keith (local activist)
Ibrahim Taguri (LD fundraiser)
Anuja Prashar (Lecturer for emerging economies, globalisation, cross culture communication & compartive business cultures, Transnational Business future)
Ajmal Masroor (London based Imam and broadcaster)

AndyJS

AndreaParma_82 said:

According to a tweet by a Dollis Hill Cllr (Alison Hopkins), LD shortlist for Brent Central is

Lauren Keith (local activist)
Ibrahim Taguri (LD fundraiser)
Anuja Prashar (Lecturer for emerging economies, globalisation, cross culture communication & compartive business cultures, Transnational Business future)
Ajmal Masroor (London based Imam and broadcaster)

It would have been helpful if they'd also given a date for the selection.

MaxPB

tim said:

Reads more like advice to PW Botha on tactics to shore up white rule, any mention of one person one vote or free and fair elections?

I read it. Not sure where you are getting that idea. Points raised.

1 - The Commonwealth Action group is going to say stuff you are going to hate, but you have to listen to it regardless and do what they say or there will be sanctions.

2 - The speech you gave went nowhere near as far as what you told me in private, that is very disappointing. Must do much more to give black people a political role.

3 - Release Nelson Mandela and end the state of emergency.

General point - there must be a fundamental change to SA society, cannot go on like it is currently and ensure you oversee this change without violence and Britain will keep away the damaging sanctions.

AveryLP

Reading down the thread I come to Robert's use of homepathy to distinguish between perception and reality.

It sets off a fit of giggles.

I can't quite work out whether the cause of this reaction was Robert's original joke or the thought of isam angrily deeming it unfunny.

And so on to Lucy Frazer.

Telegenically blessed; prized at Newnham for her academic ability; unconscionably young to be wrapped in silk; and pronounced "terrifically nice" the gods of PB.

The only mark against seems that insolvency appears to be her area of legal experience. Surely this experience would be more useful to Labour?

Nonetheless, she appears to have won all the glittering prizes, so a question for Robert.

In your experience of Miss Frazer at Cambridge would you say she will go the whole distance?

Are we looking at a future PM?

richardDodd

Reads to me that Maggie is telling him to get his act together ..or else..in diplomatic language..which most lefties will not really understand.

Scrapheap_as_was

Just as well I didn't bet on Man C then!!!

Spurs seem to be running out of defenders, lucky we score so many

Charles

MaxPB said:

tim said:

Reads more like advice to PW Botha on tactics to shore up white rule, any mention of one person one vote or free and fair elections?

I read it. Not sure where you are getting that idea. Points raised.

1 - The Commonwealth Action group is going to say stuff you are going to hate, but you have to listen to it regardless and do what they say or there will be sanctions.

2 - The speech you gave went nowhere near as far as what you told me in private, that is very disappointing. Must do much more to give black people a political role.

3 - Release Nelson Mandela and end the state of emergency.

General point - there must be a fundamental change to SA society, cannot go on like it is currently and ensure you oversee this change without violence and Britain will keep away the damaging sanctions.

Also, a suspension of violence on both sides and a negotiated settlement (which, in reality, would create a dynamic towards one man one vote).

But you forget that tim has his prejudices. He's not interested in the facts

isam

AveryLP said:

Reading down the thread I come to Robert's use of homepathy to distinguish between perception and reality.

It sets off a fit of giggles.

I can't quite work out whether the cause of this reaction was Robert's original joke or the thought of isam angrily deeming it unfunny.

And so on to Lucy Frazer.

Telegenically blessed; prized at Newnham for her academic ability; unconscionably young to be wrapped in silk; and pronounced "terrifically nice" the gods of PB.

The only mark against seems that insolvency appears to be her area of legal experience. Surely this experience would be more useful to Labour?

Nonetheless, she appears to have won all the glittering prizes, so a question for Robert.

In your experience of Miss Frazer at Cambridge would you say she will go the whole distance?

Are we looking at a future PM?

Haha if it was his joke that caused you to laugh you must be a very good audience!

MaxPB

tim said:

Mandela refused release on Bothas terms for obvious reasons in 1985, Botha and Thatcher regarding the ANC as a terrorist organisation.
Give black people a political role meaning what, second class status.

And yet she was advocating for his release essentially by whatever means necessary.

It doesn't say what the role is, but considering that she had just said that Botha's speech was wholly unsatisfactory and didn't go nearly far enough on black rights, I would guess she meant equal representation which we know Botha was not willing to give. However, we can't be sure because she doesn't spell it out, unsurprisingly given the diplomatic situation at the time.

Alanbrooke

tim said:

@MaxPB

The bottom line there is that Thatcher regarded the organisation representing the vast majority of the South African population whose armed wing deliberately avoided targeting civilians for thirty years as a terrorist organisation, while regarding the representatives of 10% of the population which deliberately targeted civilians for thirty years as its legitimate govt.

I doubt Churchill would've written to the Vichy govt advising them on how to stay in power while describing the French resistance as a terrorist movement.

still boring everyone with history you don't understand ?

CD13

Robert,

What makes you think the the "man in the street" believes in homeopathy? I'd say that's restricted to middle class women, but I'd be interested in any reliable polling.

richardDodd

To some idiots on the left Maggie would have been a collaborator if she had flown down there, shot Botha and personally released Mandela. The same people who though t Mitterands time in the collaborator government of Vichy France made him a statesman of the 20th century.

AndreaParma_82

Oh dear, Labour selected Dawn Butler again in Brent Central

AndyJS

Dawn Butler reselected for Brent Central:

twitter.com/RichardOsley/status/409374329105698817

Surely she can't lose it again?

Roger

@Alanbrooke

" (Tim) still boring everyone with history you don't understand ?"

He actually seems to understand it well. it is sad and disingenuous to see all these right-wing Thatchites trying to make black white. Thatcher's letter under the circumstances of the time was exactly what you'd expect. 'I'm doing all I can for you (the white majority government) but I can't hold out single handedly for much longer. Please help by by appearing to give just a little'.

Listen to Bob Hawke who spoke eloquently about the UK attitude the other night. Then watch the Ch4 News where her colleague's spoke honestly then cast your mind back. I remember it well. It made me an anti Conservative for life as it did many I knew at that time.

AndyJS

Labour targets still to select:

Bradford East
Cleethorpes

(Also Corby may need to re-confirm by-election winner Andy Sawford).

Alanbrooke

Roger said:

@Alanbrooke

" (Tim) still boring everyone with history you don't understand ?"

He actually seems to understand it well. it is sad and disingenuous to see all these right-wing Thatchites trying to make black white. Thatcher's letter under the circumstances of the time was exactly what you'd expect. 'I'm doing all I can for you (the white majority government) but I can't hold out single handedly for much longer. Please help by by appearing to give just a little'.

Listen to Bob Hawke who spoke eloquently about the UK attitude the other night. Then watch the Ch4 News where her colleague's spoke honestly then cast your mind back. I remember it well. It made me an anti Conservative for life as it did many I knew at that time.

Just bollox Roger. if you want to accuse Thatcher of installing a corrupt African regime which muders its own people be my guest. But it was called Zimbabawe not South Africa and no doubt you were marching to say what a pukka guy Bob Mugabe was.

But the current droning on about Thatcher just shows once again how totally crippled the Left are by the woman. Get over it, move on, instead of trying to pretend you're 19 again and can change the past.

CarlottaVance

Alanbrooke said:

Roger said:

@Alanbrooke

" (Tim) still boring everyone with history you don't understand ?"

He actually seems to understand it well. it is sad and disingenuous to see all these right-wing Thatchites trying to make black white. Thatcher's letter under the circumstances of the time was exactly what you'd expect. 'I'm doing all I can for you (the white majority government) but I can't hold out single handedly for much longer. Please help by by appearing to give just a little'.

Listen to Bob Hawke who spoke eloquently about the UK attitude the other night. Then watch the Ch4 News where her colleague's spoke honestly then cast your mind back. I remember it well. It made me an anti Conservative for life as it did many I knew at that time.

Just bollox Roger. if you want to accuse Thatcher of installing a corrupt African regime which muders its own people be my guest. But it was called Zimbabawe not South Africa and no doubt you were marching to say what a pukka guy Bob Mugabe was..

In fairness, Roger does argue that Thatcher had no part in the end of White rule in Rhodesia.....

Alanbrooke

CarlottaVance said:

Alanbrooke said:

Roger said:

@Alanbrooke

" (Tim) still boring everyone with history you don't understand ?"

He actually seems to understand it well. it is sad and disingenuous to see all these right-wing Thatchites trying to make black white. Thatcher's letter under the circumstances of the time was exactly what you'd expect. 'I'm doing all I can for you (the white majority government) but I can't hold out single handedly for much longer. Please help by by appearing to give just a little'.

Listen to Bob Hawke who spoke eloquently about the UK attitude the other night. Then watch the Ch4 News where her colleague's spoke honestly then cast your mind back. I remember it well. It made me an anti Conservative for life as it did many I knew at that time.

Just bollox Roger. if you want to accuse Thatcher of installing a corrupt African regime which muders its own people be my guest. But it was called Zimbabawe not South Africa and no doubt you were marching to say what a pukka guy Bob Mugabe was..

In fairness, Roger does argue that Thatcher had no part in the end of White rule in Rhodesia.....

Funny that. Everyone arguing that their side was 100 % correct and moral instead of the stumbles, fudges and mind changing that it actually was,

NickPalmer

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

If you look at the polls there is actually a big disconnect in findings on immigration. A lot of people think it is a big issue facing the country, a far lower percentage believe it is one that affects them and their families. The gap between the two is very wide.

That's because most people don't live in areas affected by mass immigration, but they are worried about its affect on the whole country, and IW Would think they worry about it affecting their neighbourhood in the future.

But my point is, when Question Time audiences in Boston tell of their despair at living in a disjointed community, posters on here are quick to dismiss their feelings and quote economic data. That is because mass immigration is a left wing favourite, although I know you have admitted it was a failure, fair play to you.

When the economy is recovering according to stats, Labour posters point out how it feels to an ordinary man on the street.

When ordinary people tell of mass immigration ruining their lives, Labour point to the stats

Not really. Obviously people react differently to immigration, but the polls regularly show that people living in highly-mixed areas (as I do in Holloway) are much less bothered by it than people living in purely white areas. It's possible to theorise why that might be - perhaps people who are really bothered by it move away, or people in white areas go by the Daily Mail rather than real experience? But serious racism tends to die away when it encounters reality: it's too tiring to react with hostility and suspicion to half the people you meet. Eventually you get to the healthy point where people stop thinking about whether the bloke they're talking to is white British-born, Polish-born, Pakistani-born or whatever, any more than their height or weight, and just take them as individuals.

The dangerous situation is when you get different ethnic communities living in separate communities near each other - that breeds suspicion and jealousy. It reinforces itself, too, since if one community is full of people like you and another has nobody like you, it's natural to live in the former. But a mixture generally works pretty well in my experience.

Roger

@Alanbrooke

"Just bollox Roger. if you want to accuse Thatcher of installing a corrupt African regime which muders its own people be my guest. But it was called Zimbabawe not South Africa and no doubt you were marching to say what a pukka guy Bob Mugabe was."

That could only be written by someone with no understanding of what a pernicious regime Apartheid was. I had the good fortune to be school friends with a white South African whose journalist father was kicked out of the country so at least I had some understanding.

FrankBooth

Here's a Tory commentator (admittedly one who likes being contrarian) who thinks the Tories got it wrong on Apartheid.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/peteroborne/100249502/few-human-beings-can-be-compared-to-jesus-christ-nelson-mandela-was-one/

'The Conservative Party also has a confession to make. For too many years it failed to understand Mandela and what he stood for. British Conservatives, if they are honest, have no choice but to admit that some of them were terribly wrong about South Africa. Some of them still refuse, privately, to admit it.
It was easy, but facile, to label Mandela a terrorist or a communist who deserved to be locked up. Too many did. Throughout the 1980s the Thatcher government, almost alone in the Commonwealth, held out against the imposition of sanctions on white South Africa.
The Conservative Party stood on the right side of most of the great ideological struggles of the 20th century. On South Africa, it was wrong, and honourable Conservatives should feel a sense of shame as well as sadness at the news of Nelson Mandela’s death.'

Y0kel

Syria:

There appears to be a state of alert in the Golan and UN observers forces are evacuating a couple of areas.

Something is up, I would guess an Israeli strike is rumored, if the UN guys are getting out.

CarlottaVance

tim said:

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:

Alanbrooke said:

Roger said:

@Alanbrooke

" (Tim) still boring everyone with history you don't understand ?"

He actually seems to understand it well. it is sad and disingenuous to see all these right-wing Thatchites trying to make black white. Thatcher's letter under the circumstances of the time was exactly what you'd expect. 'I'm doing all I can for you (the white majority government) but I can't hold out single handedly for much longer. Please help by by appearing to give just a little'.

Listen to Bob Hawke who spoke eloquently about the UK attitude the other night. Then watch the Ch4 News where her colleague's spoke honestly then cast your mind back. I remember it well. It made me an anti Conservative for life as it did many I knew at that time.

Just bollox Roger. if you want to accuse Thatcher of installing a corrupt African regime which muders its own people be my guest. But it was called Zimbabawe not South Africa and no doubt you were marching to say what a pukka guy Bob Mugabe was..

In fairness, Roger does argue that Thatcher had no part in the end of White rule in Rhodesia.....

Funny that. Everyone arguing that their side was 100 % correct and moral instead of the stumbles, fudges and mind changing that it actually was,

There were collaborators with the Soviet Union on the left, and collaborators with Apartheid on the right, I'm not sure why the Tories on here can't see that, plenty of normal Tories can.

Do feel free to post a letter from a Labour PM to Brezhnev telling him to change the Soviet Union......

MikeSmithson

Exactly 17 months from now there will be 3 hours and 50 minutes left to vote.

Those GOTV operations in the marginals will be working flat-out.

AveryLP

tim said:

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:

Alanbrooke said:

Roger said:

@Alanbrooke

" (Tim) still boring everyone with history you don't understand ?"

He actually seems to understand it well. it is sad and disingenuous to see all these right-wing Thatchites trying to make black white. Thatcher's letter under the circumstances of the time was exactly what you'd expect. 'I'm doing all I can for you (the white majority government) but I can't hold out single handedly for much longer. Please help by by appearing to give just a little'.

Listen to Bob Hawke who spoke eloquently about the UK attitude the other night. Then watch the Ch4 News where her colleague's spoke honestly then cast your mind back. I remember it well. It made me an anti Conservative for life as it did many I knew at that time.

Just bollox Roger. if you want to accuse Thatcher of installing a corrupt African regime which muders its own people be my guest. But it was called Zimbabawe not South Africa and no doubt you were marching to say what a pukka guy Bob Mugabe was..

In fairness, Roger does argue that Thatcher had no part in the end of White rule in Rhodesia.....

Funny that. Everyone arguing that their side was 100 % correct and moral instead of the stumbles, fudges and mind changing that it actually was,

There were collaborators with the Soviet Union on the left, and collaborators with Apartheid on the right, I'm not sure why the Tories on here can't see that, plenty of normal Tories can.

tim

You are equivocating.

The Thatcher family has always sought justice in Southern Africa through regime change.

Sunil_Prasannan

Ha! Dave couldn't even win a majority against Gurning Gordon (despite having massive poll leads in the run up to 2010)!

He's hardly likely to win a majority against Super Ed!

AndyJS

"Henry SmithVerified account ‏@henrysmithmp 5h

I'm honoured to have been re-selected as Conservative parliamentary candidate for #Crawley. Serving my community and country is a privilege":

twitter.com/HenrySmithMP/status/409312408893935616

Sunil_Prasannan

I don't know why we're so scared of playing Italy at the World Cup. They are ranked only one place ahead of us in the FIFA rankings (9th v. 10th).

AndyJS

"Matthew Dorrance ‏@matthewdorrance 5h

Delighted to be selected as @uklabour's Prospective Parliamentary Candidate for Brecon & Radnorshire @bandrlabour pic.twitter.com/ItMhbaJrPL":

twitter.com/MatthewDorrance/status/409310577291694080

isam

NickPalmer said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

If you look at the polls there is actually a big disconnect in findings on immigration. A lot of people think it is a big issue facing the country, a far lower percentage believe it is one that affects them and their families. The gap between the two is very wide.

That's because most people don't live in areas affected by mass immigration, but they are worried about its affect on the whole country, and IW Would think they worry about it affecting their neighbourhood in the future.

But my point is, when Question Time audiences in Boston tell of their despair at living in a disjointed community, posters on here are quick to dismiss their feelings and quote economic data. That is because mass immigration is a left wing favourite, although I know you have admitted it was a failure, fair play to you.

When the economy is recovering according to stats, Labour posters point out how it feels to an ordinary man on the street.

When ordinary people tell of mass immigration ruining their lives, Labour point to the stats

Not really. Obviously people react differently to immigration, but the polls regularly show that people living in highly-mixed areas (as I do in Holloway) are much less bothered by it than people living in purely white areas. It's possible to theorise why that might be - perhaps people who are really bothered by it move away, or people in white areas go by the Daily Mail rather than real experience? But serious racism tends to die away when it encounters reality: it's too tiring to react with hostility and suspicion to half the people you meet. Eventually you get to the healthy point where people stop thinking about whether the bloke they're talking to is white British-born, Polish-born, Pakistani-born or whatever, any more than their height or weight, and just take them as individuals.

The dangerous situation is when you get different ethnic communities living in separate communities near each other - that breeds suspicion and jealousy. It reinforces itself, too, since if one community is full of people like you and another has nobody like you, it's natural to live in the former. But a mixture generally works pretty well in my experience.

Yes, really.

(I see you managed to introduce racism when it hadn't been mentioned there, well done.)

Old fashioned views like yours, that confuse race worries with immigration concerns, are fading fast hopefully.

People living in highly mixed areas live there in the main because they are immigrants, or people that have chosen to live in a multicultural district, and are rarely people that are born in the area (I am thinking of non Londoners who have moved to the capital for university or their (skilled, well paid) work) London, as you well know, is less than 50% white British, so it stands to reason that most people there are going to be relaxed about living in a mixed community.

" Eventually you get to the healthy point where people stop thinking about whether the bloke they're talking to is white British-born, Polish-born, Pakistani-born or whatever, any more than their height or weight, and just take them as individuals."

...or, if you are part of a family that have lived in the area for generations and think of it as home, rather than a place you live at the moment, you move away...

AndyJS

I think we're heading for at least 200 female MPs in 2015.

malcolmg

Sunil_Prasannan said:

I don't know why we're so scared of playing Italy at the World Cup. They are ranked only one place ahead of us in the FIFA rankings (9th v. 10th).

How many times have they humped England previously

rcs1000

AndyJS said:

I think we're heading for at least 200 female MPs in 2015.

I'm hoping to see six friends elected as MPs in 2015, including Nick Palmer. My count should be 3 Conservative, 2 Labour, 1 Lib.

For the record, I would be keen to see at least one Ukip mp elected. Any pber in with a shout?

richardDodd

SP A little reminder .. Brown is wandering around in the Political wIlderness.. Cameron is PM.

CarlottaVance

I note the thread has not touched on the NATS fiasco today......another botched Tory privatisation.....

SMukesh

Can I just point out pb.com still takes one to December 4 thread,atleast on Chrome!

Next

Immigration vs Living Wage (blog post)

Alanbrooke

Roger said:

@Alanbrooke

"Just bollox Roger. if you want to accuse Thatcher of installing a corrupt African regime which muders its own people be my guest. But it was called Zimbabawe not South Africa and no doubt you were marching to say what a pukka guy Bob Mugabe was."

That could only be written by someone with no understanding of what a pernicious regime Apartheid was. I had the good fortune to be school friends with a white South African whose journalist father was kicked out of the country so at least I had some understanding.

sanctimonious twaddle.

you knew a bloke who lived somewhere a bit iffy. All of us can say that.

Sunil_Prasannan

richardDodd said:

SP A little reminder .. Brown is wandering around in the Political wIlderness.. Cameron is PM.

But for how much longer....?

rcs1000

Smukesh. Hit refresh on your browser. The new site includes instructions not to cache the page

Sunil_Prasannan

malcolmg said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

I don't know why we're so scared of playing Italy at the World Cup. They are ranked only one place ahead of us in the FIFA rankings (9th v. 10th).

How many times have they humped England previously

Remind me which group are Scotland in, malcolm?

AndyJS

I would probably vote for Nick if I lived in Broxtowe, even though I disagree with him on a lot of policy issues.

AndyJS

The higher the percentage of immigrants in London, the lower the homicide rate.

Bit of a headache for UKIP, that.

CarlottaVance

Alanbrooke said:

Roger said:

@Alanbrooke

"Just bollox Roger. if you want to accuse Thatcher of installing a corrupt African regime which muders its own people be my guest. But it was called Zimbabawe not South Africa and no doubt you were marching to say what a pukka guy Bob Mugabe was."

That could only be written by someone with no understanding of what a pernicious regime Apartheid was. I had the good fortune to be school friends with a white South African whose journalist father was kicked out of the country so at least I had some understanding.

sanctimonious twaddle.

you knew a bloke who also went to a posh school and who lived somewhere a bit iffy. Not All of us can say that

Life_ina_market_town

tim said:

The bottom line there is that Thatcher regarded the organisation representing the vast majority of the South African population whose armed wing deliberately avoided targeting civilians for thirty years as a terrorist organisation, while regarding the representatives of 10% of the population which deliberately targeted civilians for thirty years as its legitimate govt.

This is a particularly sophistical argument from a Labour supporter. Let us not forget that according to the definition of terrorism enacted by the Labour party in 2000, there is no doubt that the ANC were a terrorist organisation.

SMukesh

rcs1000 said:

Smukesh. Hit refresh on your browser. The new site includes instructions not to cache the page

Not working.Might put off newbies.

CarlottaVance

Life_ina_market_town said:

tim said:

The bottom line there is that Thatcher regarded the organisation representing the vast majority of the South African population whose armed wing deliberately avoided targeting civilians for thirty years as a terrorist organisation, while regarding the representatives of 10% of the population which deliberately targeted civilians for thirty years as its legitimate govt.

This is a particularly sophistical argument from a Labour supporter. Let us not forget that according to the definition of terrorism enacted by the Labour party in 2000, there is no doubt that the ANC were a terrorist organisation.

The ANC were a terrorist organisation in the USA until 2008.....

MrJones

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

The stats and data say the economy is improving, but it doesn't feel that way to the man in the street.. Labour posters point out the man on the street and smear the stats

The stats and data say mass immigration is a good thing economically, but it doesn't feel that way to the man in the street... Labour posters smear the man in the street and point out the stats

If you look at the polls there is actually a big disconnect in findings on immigration. A lot of people think it is a big issue facing the country, a far lower percentage believe it is one that affects them and their families. The gap between the two is very wide.

People move.

MrJones

AndreaParma_82 said:

Oh dear, Labour selected Dawn Butler again in Brent Central

wonder if Teather is kicking herself

GeoffM

AndyJS said:

I would probably vote for Nick if I lived in Broxtowe, even though I disagree with him on a lot of policy issues.

As an MP Nick personally, and his government as a whole, brought the UK to its knees. They should all be hanging from lampposts, not up for election again. To think that there are some people willing to vote for them again in living memory says a lot for how thick the average person really is.

(Not you AndyJS - from your posts I'm assuming you're more intelligent than that and are just being nice to NPxMP because he is in the room, so to speak)

Sunil_Prasannan

CarlottaVance said:

Life_ina_market_town said:

tim said:

The bottom line there is that Thatcher regarded the organisation representing the vast majority of the South African population whose armed wing deliberately avoided targeting civilians for thirty years as a terrorist organisation, while regarding the representatives of 10% of the population which deliberately targeted civilians for thirty years as its legitimate govt.

This is a particularly sophistical argument from a Labour supporter. Let us not forget that according to the definition of terrorism enacted by the Labour party in 2000, there is no doubt that the ANC were a terrorist organisation.

The ANC were a terrorist organisation in the USA until 2008.....

What attacks did they mount in the US?

richardDodd

SP ..What has that got to do with the rather vacuous point you were making..

AndyJS

GeoffM said:

AndyJS said:

I would probably vote for Nick if I lived in Broxtowe, even though I disagree with him on a lot of policy issues.

As an MP Nick personally, and his government as a whole, brought the UK to its knees. They should all be hanging from lampposts, not up for election again. To think that there are some people willing to vote for them again in living memory says a lot for how thick the average person really is.

(Not you AndyJS - from your posts I'm assuming you're more intelligent than that and are just being nice to NPxMP because he is in the room, so to speak)

I didn't say that I would have voted for Nick in 2010. I probably wouldn't have done.

Sunil_Prasannan

richardDodd said:

SP ..What has that got to do with the rather vacuous point you were making..

Hit the quote button next time you post. I've made rather a number of "Vacuous" posts this evening!

CD13

There's evidence that Margaret Thatcher was not a supporter of Apartheid, but some on the left will never believe that no matter what evidence is produced. Now they could argue that she was against it because it destabilised the country. That would be a legitimate argument, but it's not one they make.

They have pre-judged the issue based on emotional feelings, and that's a definition of prejudice. So it seems they are bigots, as defined. Who'd have thought it?

Sunil_Prasannan

CD13 said:

There's evidence that Margaret Thatcher was not a supporter of Apartheid, but some on the left will never believe that no matter what evidence is produced. Now they could argue that she was against it because it destabilised the country. That would be a legitimate argument, but it's not one they make.

They have pre-judged the issue based on emotional feelings, and that's a definition of prejudice. So it seems they are bigots, as defined. Who'd have thought it?

Well, you see, of course Maggie single-handedly was responsible for Madiba's release! She left office 7 months after he left prison!

Scrapheap_as_was

Super spurs surging !!!

We've nearly got to the same goals for/against as the Villa! We've even matched Stoke's goal mountain so far this season....

Now we need TSE to bet on Liverpool winning next sunday

NickPalmer

Thanks, AndyJS and rcs. Who are your other friendly candidates, rcs? I must say I had a soft spot for David Kendrick, who I've not seen post recently - he sounded eminently reasonable and if UKIP were to elect an MP I'd have been glad to see it was him. I'm afraid the row over the alleged betting ring seems to have put him off.

richardDodd

SP..I know..

Sunil_Prasannan

richardDodd said:

SP..I know..

Hit the quote button! FFS

Smarmeron

@CD13

I never thought Thatcher herself was necessarily racist . Apartheid was a bulwark against a possible massive loss of British investment in S.A..

Morality or money, they can be difficult concepts for some to balance

CD13

Sunil,

"Maggie single-handedly was responsible for Madiba's release! She left office 7 months after he left prison! "

I don't think she had much to do with his release. I voted Labour all through her PM-ship (even when Foot led the party, and I thought he was gormless) so I'm no fan. But she may well have been against Apartheid. To refuse to even consider any evidence that wasn't because it doesn't suit your preconceptions is very childish (or bigoted).

Sunil_Prasannan

CD13 said:

Sunil,

"Maggie single-handedly was responsible for Madiba's release! She left office 7 months after he left prison! "

I don't think she had much to do with his release. I voted Labour all through her PM-ship (even when Foot led the party, and I thought he was gormless) so I'm no fan. But she may well have been against Apartheid. To refuse to even consider any evidence that wasn't because it doesn't suit your preconceptions is very childish (or bigoted).

You did realise I was joking

Ninoinoz

AndyJS said:

The higher the percentage of immigrants in London, the lower the homicide rate.

Bit of a headache for UKIP, that.

Correlation is not the same as causation.