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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If this Ipsos-MORI polling is right then the Westminster village, and me, got the Autumn Statement wrong
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Well worth watching for those historical illiterates on here. Terry Dicks thought he should have been hanged. He said this today
As I've said before, 2015 could be similar to 1945 when a coalition government, having survived several years of peril expected to reap a reward. To their surprise, the electorate said "OK, you're done well, but move aside now for those cuddly socialists."
Still, 2020 would then be changeover time again
We old gits will be fine whoever gets in because we vote, don't we?
Faisal Islam @faisalislam 6m
De Klerk says that Thatchers engagement with the National Party helped end apartheid #c4news
Now, who to believe, Roger or FW De Klerk, the man who actually ended Apartheid?
Perhaps the YouGov in the Sunday Times will give us some more info.
But doesn't this fit the rough polling for a few years.
The voters prefer the Tories/Osborne over Lab/Balls to run the economy overall, but when it comes to whom they think would better for them personally, it's Lab/Balls.
Besides, if we’re going to start feeling sorry for politicians subjected to shouting in the Chamber, then surely we could find a slightly worthier candidate than Ed Balls? He exists as his own Anti-Treasury Support Group, with a catalogue of famous gestures and facial expressions.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/12/ed-balls-champion-heckler-complains-about-heckling/
Looking forward to pouring myself a drink and catching up with the Autumn Statement / Ed Balls is crap threads.
Until they move on things like the minimum wage and boost pay growth for basic rate public sector employees they will continue to lose the ground war and eventually lose the election, once again leaving behind a decentish economic legacy for Labour to ruin or make hay with to buy votes.
GDP growth statistics mean nothing to Mondeo man and his family. What matters to him is the shocking rise in all utility bills over the last 5-7 years, what matters to him is the fact that he seems to be working longer and harder but his pay has not gone up and finally what matters to him is that his children seem to have worse prospects in education and jobs than he did when growing up. The Tories and Lib Dems need to get back to basics and examine exactly what man on the street is all about. He cares little for the minutia of economic statistics and the Chancellor can parrot "1.4% growth" until he is blue in the face, but when people's incomes aren't going up quickly and every other cost is, either people don't believe it or they think the benefit is minimal.
Raising the minimum wage and forcing essential utility companies to invest x% of their gross income in UK infrastructure is the only way to win the hearts and minds of the general public. For too long have corporate profits been rising at the expense of the working person. The government must, must take up the cause of the working person. There are 25m people who work in the private sector and each and every one of those people should be seen as a potential voter, they must work out exactly what working people need to get on in life and enact policies to that end.
If there is a Tory strategist out there reading this, then understand that if policies that only appeal to a narrow set of people (business owners, who were the main beneficiaries of the measures in the AS) are enacted by this government then 2015 will see the last Conservative PM for at least 15 years while the party has a civil war and decides whether it is a modern, liberal party or stuck in the stone ages with UKIP.
But Parliamentary speeches don't shift votes, nor even do the personalities of prospective Chancellors (fortunately for the toxic George Osborne).
Arguments shift votes, and on that score Labour are winning.
I travelled to Southport on Saturday to see the Boston lads knock the home team out of the FA Trophy. Free travel for oldies, of course, and a discounted admission on production of said Merseyrail "old git's pass".
Oh, and the winter fuel allowance arrived too.
You young 'uns, you don't know you're born.
Which made us think: has Mandela's body being taken to a cave from where, on Sunday, he will mysteriously rise again?
The coverage is getting silly ...
The Tories should - no, need - to listen to supporters like you Max. After the next election, preferably, then they can modernise in opposition and the British electorate can have the genuine choice they deserve.
This rotten old lot need to go, the Tories need to radically change.
No wonder the PB Kinnocks are praising your post.
Any chance of taking that excellent post about the Tories and turning it into a thread header?
The nature of the current Tory Party, its outlook and policies, is much under-discussed.
It *is* 5 days, yes? Or maybe it just feels that long.
Both policies would be fiscally neutral or positive, but be tough for big business to take. Hardly the end of the world.
And having 4 PPEs amongst SCotE, CotE, PM and LOTO is probably helping fuel the rise of UKIP.
Cameron is far too tied at the hip to Osborne for either to go though. If one goes, they both do and Cameron isn't going !
Increased productivity - what are Labour's policies on how to do that?
The coalition has been pursuing increased productivity in the public sector - and despite Labour's shroud waving, doing some good work (Police numbers down, crime also down - the reverse of what Labour claimed) but in the fundamentals of "how do we make Britain richer" (to pay higher minimum wages and public sector salaries) Labour has no answer.
Why oh why has Pope Francis not canonised him? The Pontiff needs to pull his finger out.
You think the problem is 'the Tories'?
I don't have to think about it read about it look at a tax return or even listen to Osborne speak. It's just a FACT. Until Tories realize that this Alice in Wonderland world doesn't make sense to normal people they'll have to endure coming second best to people like Balls however inarticulate
::D-Y-O-R::
@FraserNelson: More income tax paid by best-paid 29,000 than the lowest-paid 15 million. A factoid FOI'd for my @telegraph column: http://t.co/YK8fPYl7RU
I think there is just something that simply grates with the general public when they see GO standing and talking about how wonderfully we are doing.
As for the investment stuff, it is far too easy to invest in UK utility companies. Guaranteed returns for basically zero risk. No UK utility company is going bankrupt and the regulators are all toothless and will allow corporate profits to rise without issues. It is a zero sum game for taxpayers and consumers. The government must act either by changing the regulation to force x% of gross profit to be invested or by introducing a new 40% tax rate on essential utility companies if x% of their gross profits are not invested. As the market is today, there is no incentive for private companies to spend shareholder money on investing in the UK, not when returns are effectively guaranteed by the state/regulator.
It is about who is PERCIEVED to be benefiting the rich or the poor.
::D-Y-O-R::
And yet the world didn't end when the minimum wage was introduced. Theory and reality, there is a difference between them. You ought to look it up.
There seems to be a disconnect between journos in their newsrooms and their readers on this going by the comments after various newspaper articles.
And so does Labour.
All we have at the moment is the choice between Notting Hill and Primrose Hill.
"Like the ones who wrote that white minority rule in Rhodesia ended under a Labour government and had nothing to do with Thatcher, Roger?"
White minority rule was effectively over in 1977/78. The new government was inaugurated in 1980 though it had nothing to do with the new Tory government. It was in train long before her arrival and she couldn't have stopped it if she'd wanted to.
I'm not sure what point you are trying to make. British governments change but the world doesn't stop.
The UK standard-of-living has - most likely - been falling since 2003: If you don't count the denominator then.... What the OBR is doing is correcting this falacy: What you are doing is mistaking the reality with some idealistic dream.
As I am a supporter - along with Junior and antifrank - of open-borders, I don't see your point. If we are to allow an open-market in labour why constrict it in price-and-income regulations...?
Case against.
http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2013/12/unprecedented-minimum-wage-hike-would-hurt-jobs-and-the-economy
More interference from the state for little real benefit.
Household income "will surely still be below its 2010 level by the time we get to the election in 2015," the IFS said.
Yes it was because Labour completely fecked up but people won't be thinking of that come GE2015. Also there is the phenomenon that London where I assume things will be better tends to go more Labour the richer it gets whereas the key midland/northern marginals definitely won't be better off. Add this to the potent electoral geography in Labour's favour and I am definitely ruling out a Conservative majority for sure !
None of them have, had or will have any interest in the working poor, a group which will expand year by year.
What we have is government by the quangocrat, of the celebrity and for the banker.
"De Klerk says that Thatchers engagement with the National Party helped end apartheid"
A ludicrous fig leaf. Of course it suited him to say that. Find someone who wanted to end white majority rule who agrees with him
I think the Primrose Hill/Notting Hill would be a good theme to on for UKIP along with the 4 PPEs for GE2015. Resonates as you can see by my comment in http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100249146/the-tragedy-of-london-a-world-class-city-with-world-class-ignorance-of-real-life/#disqus_thread SeanT's blogpost.
Not sure I've ever had 51 votes/likes for a comment before...
You just bought your first flat, and I suspect that the improving economy and your own job security had a big impact in the timing of this major personal decision. Its going to be interesting to watch the underlying trend in public opinion as the economy continues to improve, and it finally starts to feed into the public's own sense of personal employment/financial security. A lot of people took a drop in their wages and working hours during the toughest period of that last recession to hang onto their jobs. You just have to dip your toes into PB these days to get a real sense that people are beginning to see a positive light at the end of the tunnel. Go back a few years, and it was quite grim on here for some posters who were made redundant and who were really worried about finding another job.
The Labour party remains in complete public denial of their own incompetence and the dreadful economic legacy they bequeathed to this Government, that is what dents their own credibility on this issue. Their latest wheeze on the cost of living not improving far enough, fast enough is just yet another statement of the obvious when it comes to severity of the mess they left behind in May 2010. And this Government has been specifically targeting and helping the lowest paid during the last few years, especially after the last Labour Government cynical withdrew the 10p tax band to give middle incomes an income tax cut. Osborne's biggest bit of luck is going to be a UK economy outperforming most of the Eurozone in the next couple of years.
Cameron and Osborne were posh in 2010 - didn't stop them getting 7% lead at GE.
Cameron and Osborne were posh in late 2011 / early 2012 - didn't stop them pulling back to around level pegging.
Most people on here over analyse things and many people on here seem to have a massive chip on their shoulder re all this posh nonsense.
The reason Con are still well behind is that people aren't feeling the recovery. If they do start feeling it over the next 18 months, Con has a good chance. If they don't feel it, Con will lose.
The result will not be determined by whether people think they are posh.
I saw your name and thought I'd give a bit of PB solidarity.
Certainly the PPE of Notting Hill and the PPE of Primrose Hill is a good slogan for UKIP to campaign on.
I think the Nigella trial is also having an effect with the 1% seemingly believing they are above the law - which leads to politicans' expenses etc.
Just asking....
Now its all change, GO and DC are in Gov't so the focus is far more on them rather than the opposition. And Osbourne is a massive electoral liability.
A Birmingham councillor has just posted the following information on a forum:
"I learnt yesterday two things
1) One in twelve women giving birth at a Birmingham hospital have suffered FGM
2) The police still feel that it is not a priority and this was from quite a high level."
http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/3482/fgm?page=7#scrollTo=123138
Bottom 50%/Top 50%/Top 1%
Share of total income:
2009/10: 22.9/77.1/13.9
2013/14: 24.2/75.8/13.7
Share of total tax:
2009/10: 11.2/88.8/26.5
2013/14: 9.7/90.3/29.8
Labour - do as I say, not do as I do......
http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/statistics/tax-statistics/table2-4.pdf
Tricky one.
For now he is doing a magnificent job of getting UK plc on the road to recovery without creating mass unemployment.
A remarkable feat and way beyond the wit of Blanchflowers, Balls and the Kinnochios on here.
Man, do the Tories have a big problem.
4 decades between outright election victories? 5? What do you fancy?
He was on a boat. The Tories are doomed.
He was on a train. Disaster.
He got out of a car. How can they possibly recover.
He ate a burger. How posh is that?
He cried at a funeral. Nobody likes that.
Strongest recovery in the developed World. That's the last straw...
There are two economies. The first economy is what Osborne projects. For a few things are good and they are getting better. You can't deny this economy isn't real because all the data insists that it is. This economy is occupied by a small percentage of the population, and aspired towards by another percentage of right-leaning voters who'd like it to be true. In reality these voters occupy the second economy along with the rest of us in broke as fuck land.
In Broke as Fuck land you work your arse off, with wages rising at half the official rate of inflation at best. Then you look at prices skyrocketing and laugh at the official rate of inflation which clearly occupies the official economy and not the fuckland economy. In this economy we carry on as best we can, and even maybe join in the "kick a begger" agenda we read in the Daily Mail, but can't get away from running an ever tighter budget due to the ever decreasing amount of money.
Governments of the right have successfully farmed votes in their millions from people in this economy - yes its tough but its genuinely getting better and here is your ladder, look you can actually feel it in your hands, see how its getting easier and you can have some nice things to show for your graft. Sadly for this government there is no ladder, no recognition that there is any other economy than the official one.
And what is the thing that annoys the tens of millions of us in fuckland? Being told by condescending sneering wassocks that black is white, a bill rise is a cut, and there is no cost of living / unemployment / poor wages / global businesses taking us for a ride / don't own anything problem after all, its all just a figment of our imaginations due to our low IQs.
Until Tories of PB or elsewhere get this, you are doomed. You will sit inside your ever-contracting bubble and gnash and snarl at the ingrates out there who don't get it. The Tory party for decades connected with the working man, understood their lot, and not only delivered policies for them but were seen to do so. This financial crisis has succeeded in kicking over the working class / middle class divider for many of us - we are all in this together but not in the way that Cameron originally meant it (as it excludes his government from the equation). You don't get ordinary people and how we live, and frankly give no signs of ever getting it. And thats why this MORI poll is such a shock for you.
Try this. Don't tell people what a wonderful job the economy is, how austerity has succeeded. From your gold throne. Go and do a Major, walk round Brixton market and ask if it is succeeding. Then do something about it. A clue - Osborne has the second most punchable face in politics behind Clegg. You want to connect with fuckland voters and win the election, fire Osborne.
But he does come across as repellant.
He exudes the smug aura of someone who believes he's highly talented but who has only achieved his position through his privileged background.
And millions of people can associate someone in their lives with George Osborne and Osborne becomes a magnet for the resulting resentment.
If the voters want people who will lie to them, they are free to vote for them.
This.
The current Tory lot Just. Don't. Get. It. They're not only obsessed with Thatcherism, they've warped it into something else entirely.
Modernise or die, Tories.
Do you deliver free-of-charge? Where in Yellow-Pages is the number...?
Frankly I think virtually anyone who saw the travesty in the Commons yesterday would've just been repelled by politics as a whole, but for anyone who did pay attention to the arguments, millionaires smugly telling people on the breadline that their poverty is in their imagination, that they should just be grateful for what they've got, was always going to go down like a lead balloon.
In the heirarchy of rights, cultural traditions trump feminism.
Has Harriet, noted fighter for feminism, made this an issue for the Labour manifesto?
Long may the Boy rattle your cage and jangle your nerves.
'If the voters want people who will lie to them, they are free to vote for them.'
Cost of living cut at a stroke,benefits up,more of that fairer stuff,what's not to like?
Clearly the way to show the punters that you aren't the elite sneering down your nose at the peasants is to scream and holler at any suggestion you are elite. That'll show them.
Or perhaps Tebbit has it right. Remember he was the on yer bike employment secretary with a hard message for the working man who at that time was somewhat under the cosh. Not too dissimilar to today if you think about it. Yet the working man connected with him and his party. Why do they not connect with IDS and the current Tory party.
Again with the apology for saying what some don't want to hear, but we are into naked emperor territory here.
They really did want a change in 2010, there was pent up resentment at a few things:
- The inertia that set in in the final term of the last government
- Political correctness
- Bureaucracy
People saw in the Tories (and the Lib Dems) parties that were energised, ready to change things, to bring some common sense back in and let people get on with their lives.
And that was good for a few years, and they made some sensible changes, but now they too have run out of steam and lost focus from the ordinary people Cameron worked so, so hard for so long to connect with.
Town hall meetings. Webcameron. Huskies. Reconciliation with difficult past issues. Social liberalism. All stomped on, like a stale pasty being crushed into the pavement outside Leeds railway station.
Osborne really has got the usual suspects frothing tonight
Isn't the fact that Brown wanted to be politically adored rather than hated as a nasty Chancellor in the Treasury making our lives hell just to keep the economy on the straight and narrow the reason he got us into this economic mess in the first place? And look where it got Brown when he finally did move next door to No10, a decade of economic mismanagement blew up and booted him and his Government out of Office. Like most Conservative Chancellors, I suspect that Osborne doesn't mind being unpopular as long as his economic policies are working.
IDS is a chump, that's why they don't let him get anywhere near TVs. No, the Tories next great hope is Sajid Javid. He is from Rochdale, he grew up in relative poverty as a second generation immigrant. He can speak to ordinary people because he understands what it is to be working class.
There are a lot of working class Tories, very few have been finding success under the current leadership. Javid is one of few. Liz Truss is another. She would be my pick for next leader of the Conservatives and Javid my pick for shadow Chancellor.
But you know and you're frightened.