The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....
You're probably right. In the end it will be a wash.
If I had to construct a plan B (given that my North Korean autarky won't work) then I would do this: I would say to any 70 year old (or older) who presents with coronavirus; "Sorry, we cannot treat you in a hospital, here is a load of antibiotics and heroin, go home and pray".
Let God decide. But mitigate the pain.
We risk overwhelming the health system with hundreds of thousands of oldsters who may or may not live, at the expense of younger people who still have a life to live and babies to breed. Triage needs to get a bit medieval.
Comrade...why should a 70 year old or 80 year old pass over treatment in preference to a younger person???
Surely the clinical presentation takes priority--and on that basis the elderly and those with co-morbidity must be prioritised.....
No, that's wrong. This is beyond normal protocol. Save the young.
The young will largely be saved anyway, coronavirus has a 0.2% death rate for under 40s, barely different from normal flu but an 8% death rate for over 70s and a 15% death rate for over 80s
If 0.2% of under 40's are dying then probably 0.5% need ICU, or 1 in 200.
If we have 1000 of those under 40's getting the virus at one time, then all those beds are gone, just on that bit of the population.
This is why the public health measures need to be harsh and soon too.
There is a vast difference between 1 in 200 needing an ICU for under 40s and potentially almost 1 in 2 over 80s needing an ICU.
You're reading, but you're not understanding. Two patients present, both identically ill - in desperate need of an ECMO to survive (the U40 being the 1 in 200, the O80 being the 1 in 2). Do you give it to the U40 or the O80, given that they're identically ill?
Depends if the U40 has serious pre existing conditions, is single and the O80 is a parent or grandparent and you could even look at whether the U40 is employed or not and whether the O80 has a private pension if you really want to be that brutal.
However the vast majority of U40s will not need hospital treatment to survive, even most O80s will not either but more will
Identical in every way. Both are siblingless married parents to one child. No pre-existing conditions. There is no difference between the two patients in any way, bar their age. Who do you pick?
Again, a cost benefit analysis would need to be done of their net worth, claiming of state benefits, how dependent their children were on them etc. It could be the older patient is happily married and close to his children and grandchildren and the younger patient is separated from his partner, never sees his children and an alcoholic
Err, No.
That is not how it works. NHS treatment decisions are made on medical not social grounds.
Stay safe Foxy and thanks to you and your colleagues for your efforts
The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....
You're probably right. In the end it will be a wash.
If I had to construct a plan B (given that my North Korean autarky won't work) then I would do this: I would say to any 70 year old (or older) who presents with coronavirus; "Sorry, we cannot treat you in a hospital, here is a load of antibiotics and heroin, go home and pray".
Let God decide. But mitigate the pain.
We risk overwhelming the health system with hundreds of thousands of oldsters who may or may not live, at the expense of younger people who still have a life to live and babies to breed. Triage needs to get a bit medieval.
Comrade...why should a 70 year old or 80 year old pass over treatment in preference to a younger person???
Surely the clinical presentation takes priority--and on that basis the elderly and those with co-morbidity must be prioritised.....
No, that's wrong. This is beyond normal protocol. Save the young.
The young will largely be saved anyway, coronavirus has a 0.2% death rate for under 40s, barely different from normal flu but an 8% death rate for over 70s and a 15% death rate for over 80s
If 0.2% of under 40's are dying then probably 0.5% need ICU, or 1 in 200.
If we have 1000 of those under 40's getting the virus at one time, then all those beds are gone, just on that bit of the population.
This is why the public health measures need to be harsh and soon too.
There is a vast difference between 1 in 200 needing an ICU for under 40s and potentially almost 1 in 2 over 80s needing an ICU.
You're reading, but you're not understanding. Two patients present, both identically ill - in desperate need of an ECMO to survive (the U40 being the 1 in 200, the O80 being the 1 in 2). Do you give it to the U40 or the O80, given that they're identically ill?
Depends if the U40 has serious pre existing conditions, is single and the O80 is a parent or grandparent and you could even look at whether the U40 is employed or not and whether the O80 has a private pension if you really want to be that brutal.
However the vast majority of U40s will not need hospital treatment to survive, even most O80s will not either but more will
Identical in every way. Both are siblingless married parents to one child. No pre-existing conditions. There is no difference between the two patients in any way, bar their age. Who do you pick?
Again, a cost benefit analysis would need to be done of their net worth, claiming of state benefits, how dependent their children were on them etc. It could be the older patient is happily married and close to his children and grandchildren and the younger patient is separated from his partner, never sees his children and an alcoholic
If everyone who can work from home does so for a few weeks, then that will do a great deal to reduce the spread. Not everyone can, but many can, and should.
As I posted on previous thread, I was contacted by a friend at a leading university, who were told this evening this was now the preferred option for spending their days. No meetings, no presentations, etc with research done from home.
I think we are going to see this rolled out pretty quickly now.
They've already stopped classes at Stanford. Lectures through WebEx is the new norm.
I would be surprised if that doesn't happen here very soon. In fact, they will be off for Easter anyway shortly. I would just cut the term now.
A lot of Universities are 2 weeks into a 3 week lecturer strike which may prove something of a blessing.
Only in humanities. Shutting Universities, or letting them shut for Easter could be a disaster. If there's a cluster in even one uni, when it's Easter time they disperse all over the country to go home, which is obviously extremely problematic.
For example, I live in a house with two people that work in a hospital seemingly with community spread. When university is cancelled I'll go home, so will my housemate from Bristol, my housemate from Manchester, my housemate from London etc.
This is actually End Times stuff, isn't it? I mean, less than three years ago we thought NOM in a General Election was a major upset. And that Brexit mattered.
No it isn't.
We have short memories.
In 1968 Hong Kong Flu killed 80,000 people in the UK in just a few months - 4 million people globally. Yet the world did not end. The economy did not collapse and most people today, even those who lived through it, would not look back on 1968 as being a 'plague year'.
Yes this will probably be terrible and we should all be prepared for it. But on the current projections it will only be slightly worse than the 1968 flu epidemic. Shitty, particularly if you lose loved ones, but certainly not the end of life as we know it.
The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....
You're probably right. In the end it will be a wash.
If I had to construct a plan B (given that my North Korean autarky won't work) then I would do this: I would say to any 70 year old (or older) who presents with coronavirus; "Sorry, we cannot treat you in a hospital, here is a load of antibiotics and heroin, go home and pray".
Let God decide. But mitigate the pain.
We risk overwhelming the health system with hundreds of thousands of oldsters who may or may not live, at the expense of younger people who still have a life to live and babies to breed. Triage needs to get a bit medieval.
Eh? The whole point is that younger people aren't dying from it in any sort of significant numbers! So you'd be clearing the hospitals of old people for... who?
Young people who have a life ahead of them.
Read that doctor from Italy. Young people are getting this. And badly.
If we are faced with a terrible choice (and it is terrible) we have to save the young and the future.
One personal report vs all the medical evidence.
Death rates amongst the young are a tiny fraction of those of the elderly. You would end up with far more avoidable deaths following your plan.
There's a real possibility that the base number of infections grows so large that the tiny fraction of the young approaches the total capacity of the health care system. At that point Sir Eadrics deliberations become acutely relevant.
Mia Farrow sounds absolutely catastrophically damaged, from that piece. I always found her coldness and over-keen eyes off-putting.
Allen may not formally have been in the position of Soon-Yi's father. But he was in a long-term relationship with Mia Farrow, and he was party to the decision to adopt and bring up children as members of the family.
The description in the article that "She [Soon-Yi] is not Woody’s daughter (adopted, step, or otherwise)" is in my opinion only true in a very formal legal sense.
In practice, he did play the role of father, then lover.
This is actually End Times stuff, isn't it? I mean, less than three years ago we thought NOM in a General Election was a major upset. And that Brexit mattered.
No it isn't.
We have short memories.
In 1968 Hong Kong Flu killed 80,000 people in the UK in just a few months - 4 million people globally. Yet the world did not end. The economy did not collapse and most people today, even those who lived through it, would not look back on 1968 as being a 'plague year'.
Yes this will probably be terrible and we should all be prepared for it. But on the current projections it will only be slightly worse than the 1968 flu epidemic. Shitty, particularly if you lose loved ones, but certainly not the end of life as we know it.
I tend to agree on this. However, our global economic structure is very different now. For those predicting significant economic after-effects, for that I tend to agree on.
Britain, in turn, will also be one of the countries most vulnerable to those international economic after-effects at the end of this year, because of a decision it has made.
Mia Farrow sounds absolutely catastrophically damaged, from that piece. I always found her coldness and over-keen eyes off-putting.
Allen may not formally have been in the position of Soon-Yi's father. But he was in a long-term relationship with Mia Farrow, and he was party to the decision to adopt and bring up children as members of the family.
The description in the article that "She [Soon-Yi] is not Woody’s daughter (adopted, step, or otherwise)" is in my opinion only true in a very formal legal sense.
In practice, he did play the role of father, then lover.
He did, but that article still makes a convincing case that he only played a distant step-father role, before Farrow projected her own abusive family background, which seems have to damaged her terribly, onto him.
The multiple stories of emotional and physical abuse by Farrow in that article are dreadful, and most tellingly of all the ones concerning her treatment of Soon-Yi.
Mia Farrow sounds absolutely catastrophically damaged, from that piece. I always found her coldness and over-keen eyes off-putting.
Allen may not formally have been in the position of Soon-Yi's father. But he was in a long-term relationship with Mia Farrow, and he was party to the decision to adopt and bring up children as members of the family.
The description in the article that "She [Soon-Yi] is not Woody’s daughter (adopted, step, or otherwise)" is in my opinion only true in a very formal legal sense.
In practice, he did play the role of father, then lover.
It is of course, entirely possible that Allen sexually abused Dylan, and that Mia Farrow was an abusive mother.
This is actually End Times stuff, isn't it? I mean, less than three years ago we thought NOM in a General Election was a major upset. And that Brexit mattered.
No it isn't.
We have short memories.
In 1968 Hong Kong Flu killed 80,000 people in the UK in just a few months - 4 million people globally. Yet the world did not end. The economy did not collapse and most people today, even those who lived through it, would not look back on 1968 as being a 'plague year'.
Yes this will probably be terrible and we should all be prepared for it. But on the current projections it will only be slightly worse than the 1968 flu epidemic. Shitty, particularly if you lose loved ones, but certainly not the end of life as we know it.
I tend to agree on this. However, our global economic structure is very different now. For those predicting significant economic after-effects, for that I tend to agree on.
Britain, in turn, will also be one of the countries most vulnerable to those international economic after-effects at the end of this year, because of a decision it has made.
Oh I agree on that. The economic hit will be vast. But that does not appear to be what the panic merchants were talking about.
I see no way for Italy to avoid a long long depression while remaining in the Euro. Tourism is 13% of their GDP. Their fiscal and monetary toolboxes are empty and taken away and free movement will just drive emigration towards better economies.
Mia Farrow sounds absolutely catastrophically damaged, from that piece. I always found her coldness and over-keen eyes off-putting.
Allen may not formally have been in the position of Soon-Yi's father. But he was in a long-term relationship with Mia Farrow, and he was party to the decision to adopt and bring up children as members of the family.
The description in the article that "She [Soon-Yi] is not Woody’s daughter (adopted, step, or otherwise)" is in my opinion only true in a very formal legal sense.
In practice, he did play the role of father, then lover.
He did, but that article makes a convincing case that he only played a very distant step-father role, before Farrow projecting her own abusive family background, which seems have to damaged her terribly, onto him.
The multiple stories of emotional and physical abuse by Farrow in that article are dreadful.
I think the description of Allen's role in the article is misleading (as you partially agree, as you acknowledge he was a stepfather whereas the article says he wasn't).
So I am inclined to treat the rest of the article with some scepticism, until it is corroborated.
These numbers are way too high for Trump even *before* you price in a deadly pandemic that he's completely botched and a huge resulting economic shock.
Biden is popular. He has consistent head-to-head polling leads agains Trump, he has strong appeal with the demographics Hillary couldn't get (both black people and low-education white people), and he has strong appeal in the right places. He will probably win.
You have to factor in the chance he will catch coronavirus.
Yup, but that's probably not crazy high, and if it happens there's a good chance the Dems substitute somebody else with some similar properties.
Taking into account the dreaded lurgy and its knock-on economic effects I reckon Trump's chances of re-election are below 30%. (That's not an offer to bet.)
This is actually End Times stuff, isn't it? I mean, less than three years ago we thought NOM in a General Election was a major upset. And that Brexit mattered.
No it isn't.
We have short memories.
In 1968 Hong Kong Flu killed 80,000 people in the UK in just a few months - 4 million people globally. Yet the world did not end. The economy did not collapse and most people today, even those who lived through it, would not look back on 1968 as being a 'plague year'.
Yes this will probably be terrible and we should all be prepared for it. But on the current projections it will only be slightly worse than the 1968 flu epidemic. Shitty, particularly if you lose loved ones, but certainly not the end of life as we know it.
I tend to agree on this. However, our global economic structure is very different now. For those predicting significant economic after-effects, for that I tend to agree on.
Britain, in turn, will also be one of the countries most vulnerable to those international economic after-effects at the end of this year, because of a decision it has made.
Oh I agree on that. The economic hit will be vast. But that does not appear to be what the panic merchants were talking about.
I am not a panic merchant, and it was the scale of the economic hit I was talking about. It dwarfs whet I thought was the worst case brexit scenario.
Few European countries have bans on travelers from the most affected areas and, apart from France and the U.K., none so far is systematically testing all patients with respiratory distress.
This is actually End Times stuff, isn't it? I mean, less than three years ago we thought NOM in a General Election was a major upset. And that Brexit mattered.
No it isn't.
We have short memories.
In 1968 Hong Kong Flu killed 80,000 people in the UK in just a few months - 4 million people globally. Yet the world did not end. The economy did not collapse and most people today, even those who lived through it, would not look back on 1968 as being a 'plague year'.
Yes this will probably be terrible and we should all be prepared for it. But on the current projections it will only be slightly worse than the 1968 flu epidemic. Shitty, particularly if you lose loved ones, but certainly not the end of life as we know it.
I tend to agree on this. However, our global economic structure is very different now. For those predicting significant economic after-effects, for that I tend to agree on.
Britain, in turn, will also be one of the countries most vulnerable to those international economic after-effects at the end of this year, because of a decision it has made.
Oh I agree on that. The economic hit will be vast. But that does not appear to be what the panic merchants were talking about.
I am not a panic merchant, and it was the scale of the economic hit I was talking about. It dwarfs whet I thought was the worst case brexit scenario.
The economic hit scares me far more as well. Most countries have barely recovered from 2008. Italy's real GDP per capita is still below 2000 levels iirc. How will they take another 10%+ hit to it? I'd suggest that it'd be a turn to extreme radicalism.
Death rates amongst the young are a tiny fraction of those of the elderly. You would end up with far more avoidable deaths following your plan.
For the "which lucky patient gets the respirator" question you need to divide by people needing the respirator, not total number of sufferers. Do you have any data for that?
Death rates amongst the young are a tiny fraction of those of the elderly. You would end up with far more avoidable deaths following your plan.
For the "which lucky patient gets the respirator" question you need to divide by people needing the respirator, not total number of sufferers. Do you have any data for that?
Singapore
There are 150 confirmed cases to date, of which 90 have fully recovered and been discharged from hospital. No patients were discharged on Sunday.
Of the 60 still in hospital, most are stable or improving. Nine are in critical condition in the intensive care unit.
As of noon on Sunday, the Health Ministry has identified 3,649 close contacts, who have been quarantined. Of these, 615 are currently quarantined, and 3,034 have completed their quarantine.
Hey Matthias, what's the thinking in Germany about how you've managed to keep the fatality rate so low there so far?
Some days ago authorities announced that test capacity had been raised to 12,000 a day. I don't have hard numbers but I think we're well into six figures range, therefor more finds. The quality and especially capacity of health care is quite decent, but once it really kicks off, we will probably be overwhelmed as well.
It's an impressive effort, though. Presumably a problem is that you have to keep re-testing. In Britain the test are I think focused on people with lung disorders, to see which of them in fact have the virus. Are the Germans testing other people, and on what basis?
I'm surprised more people aren't advocating using our island status by refusing entry to anyone who doesn't test negative (including Brits returning home) - anyone who refuses or tests positive goes into quarantine. But it's probably sufficiently spread by now for that to be too late.
Death rates amongst the young are a tiny fraction of those of the elderly. You would end up with far more avoidable deaths following your plan.
For the "which lucky patient gets the respirator" question you need to divide by people needing the respirator, not total number of sufferers. Do you have any data for that?
Singapore
There are 150 confirmed cases to date, of which 90 have fully recovered and been discharged from hospital. No patients were discharged on Sunday.
Of the 60 still in hospital, most are stable or improving. Nine are in critical condition in the intensive care unit.
As of noon on Sunday, the Health Ministry has identified 3,649 close contacts, who have been quarantined. Of these, 615 are currently quarantined, and 3,034 have completed their quarantine.
Hey Matthias, what's the thinking in Germany about how you've managed to keep the fatality rate so low there so far?
Some days ago authorities announced that test capacity had been raised to 12,000 a day. I don't have hard numbers but I think we're well into six figures range, therefor more finds. The quality and especially capacity of health care is quite decent, but once it really kicks off, we will probably be overwhelmed as well.
It's an impressive effort, though. Presumably a problem is that you have to keep re-testing. In Britain the test are I think focused on people with lung disorders, to see which of them in fact have the virus. Are the Germans testing other people, and on what basis?
I'm surprised more people aren't advocating using our island status by refusing entry to anyone who doesn't test negative (including Brits returning home) - anyone who refuses or tests positive goes into quarantine. But it's probably sufficiently spread by now for that to be too late.
I think testing strategies will vary depending on the situation. If you're dealing with single cases you will try to identify every contact and test them. Once clusters are forming you may begin to focus on the symptomatic ones, maybe depending on severity. You have to remember how limited resources are. In the UK there are 1-2k tests reported/day. It's barely possible to test all suspicious cases already in the country, testing anyone entering is logistically impossible.
It seems that the WA outbreak could be massive. So, someone caught coronavirus off of someone from WA, who then went on the PH, and passed it onto someone else.
Well, actually, you have to take some responsibility for your actions yourself.
Federico Gatti is grossly irresponsible.
Lombardy is under quarantine. He has evaded quarantine.
ATC at Milan Airport cleared the flight - they broke quarantine?
In the current circumstances, I would say his actions were completely irresponsible.
You can go into a supermarket and pile forty jumbo sized packs of toilet rolls on your trolley. No-one will stop you. But it is completely irresponsible.
You can fly into Lombardy and two days later fly out, even though you know the Italian Gov't has advised against travel out of Lombardy. It is completely irresponsible.
Well, actually, you have to take some responsibility for your actions yourself.
Federico Gatti is grossly irresponsible.
Lombardy is under quarantine. He has evaded quarantine.
ATC at Milan Airport cleared the flight - they broke quarantine?
In the current circumstances, I would say his actions were completely irresponsible.
You can go into a supermarket and pile forty jumbo sized packs of toilet rolls on your trolley. No-one will stop you. But it is completely irresponsible.
You can fly into Lombardy and two days later fly out, even though you know the Italian Gov't has advised against travel out of Lombardy. It is completely irresponsible.
So why did ATC clear the flight if they're not meant to?
Well, actually, you have to take some responsibility for your actions yourself.
Federico Gatti is grossly irresponsible.
Lombardy is under quarantine. He has evaded quarantine.
ATC at Milan Airport cleared the flight - they broke quarantine?
In the current circumstances, I would say his actions were completely irresponsible.
You can go into a supermarket and pile forty jumbo sized packs of toilet rolls on your trolley. No-one will stop you. But it is completely irresponsible.
You can fly into Lombardy and two days later fly out, even though you know the Italian Gov't has advised against travel out of Lombardy. It is completely irresponsible.
So why did ATC clear the flight if they're not meant to?
Just because you can do something does not mean that you should do it. You must take responsibility for your own actions.
It is not enough to say the Gov't did not prevent me from doing this.
It was possible to leave Lombardy last night by train, even though the Italian Gov't advised against it and were putting restrictions in place.
Many Italians did so. It was grossly irresponsible.
Well, actually, you have to take some responsibility for your actions yourself.
Federico Gatti is grossly irresponsible.
Lombardy is under quarantine. He has evaded quarantine.
ATC at Milan Airport cleared the flight - they broke quarantine?
In the current circumstances, I would say his actions were completely irresponsible.
You can go into a supermarket and pile forty jumbo sized packs of toilet rolls on your trolley. No-one will stop you. But it is completely irresponsible.
You can fly into Lombardy and two days later fly out, even though you know the Italian Gov't has advised against travel out of Lombardy. It is completely irresponsible.
So why did ATC clear the flight if they're not meant to?
Just because you can do something does not mean that you should do it. You must take responsibility for your own actions.
It is not enough to say the Gov't did not prevent me from doing this.
It was possible to leave Lombardy last night by train, even though the Italian Gov't advised against it and were putting restrictions in place.
Many Italians did so. It was grossly irresponsible.
So why did ATC clear the flight if they're not meant to allow flights out of Milan?
Well, actually, you have to take some responsibility for your actions yourself.
Federico Gatti is grossly irresponsible.
Lombardy is under quarantine. He has evaded quarantine.
ATC at Milan Airport cleared the flight - they broke quarantine?
In the current circumstances, I would say his actions were completely irresponsible.
You can go into a supermarket and pile forty jumbo sized packs of toilet rolls on your trolley. No-one will stop you. But it is completely irresponsible.
You can fly into Lombardy and two days later fly out, even though you know the Italian Gov't has advised against travel out of Lombardy. It is completely irresponsible.
So why did ATC clear the flight if they're not meant to?
Just because you can do something does not mean that you should do it. You must take responsibility for your own actions.
It is not enough to say the Gov't did not prevent me from doing this.
It was possible to leave Lombardy last night by train, even though the Italian Gov't advised against it and were putting restrictions in place.
Many Italians did so. It was grossly irresponsible.
So why did ATC clear the flight if they're not meant to allow flights out of Milan?
Well, actually, you have to take some responsibility for your actions yourself.
Federico Gatti is grossly irresponsible.
Lombardy is under quarantine. He has evaded quarantine.
ATC at Milan Airport cleared the flight - they broke quarantine?
In the current circumstances, I would say his actions were completely irresponsible.
You can go into a supermarket and pile forty jumbo sized packs of toilet rolls on your trolley. No-one will stop you. But it is completely irresponsible.
You can fly into Lombardy and two days later fly out, even though you know the Italian Gov't has advised against travel out of Lombardy. It is completely irresponsible.
So why did ATC clear the flight if they're not meant to?
Just because you can do something does not mean that you should do it. You must take responsibility for your own actions.
It is not enough to say the Gov't did not prevent me from doing this.
It was possible to leave Lombardy last night by train, even though the Italian Gov't advised against it and were putting restrictions in place.
Many Italians did so. It was grossly irresponsible.
So why did ATC clear the flight if they're not meant to allow flights out of Milan?
Obviously it isn't against the law for them to clear the flight, although you'd think it would be by now.
Thoughts on FTSE and DOW by Friday close? And low point this year?
Im thinking 5500/20000 by Friday hitting 5000/17000 as lows in late March/April
Thinking about when to get long, perhaps drip it in through the 5750 to 5000 range?
I was annoyed I didn’t get to take profits before Friday’s pre-close surge, but am pleased I didn’t now.
From the beginning I have had 24,000 as the short term target, and it looks like we will reach that this week. We need to factor in that the US and central banks will be doing everything they can to prop up the markets - another surprise US interest rate is quite likely, as is rushing out some news on a vaccine or cure before they should. I am going to hold my sell positions to 24,000 and then take a view as to what to do next. The lower the market goes, the greater the risk of a bounce, even if the longer term trend is downward.
Previous crises, the market has been on the way back well before the underlying crisis is resolved. So it’s right to be looking for the turn. But I wouldn’t however think of buying back in just yet, there is clearly worse news to come.
Thanks, think you might hit your 24000 by the open tomorrow.
Futures currently trading at 24700.
I also missed the chance to close out before the end of Friday's session, but it doesn't seem to have mattered much.
Now 24,600 and holding steady. I am taking a bit of profit now, just because it’s hard not to when you wake up in the night and find them £1000 up. Tomorrow looks like a rocky day; I really wouldn’t be surprised to see some announcement in the US before markets open there, or shortly after, so am wary of carrying too big a position thru being too greedy.
The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....
You're probably right. In the end it will be a wash.
If I had to construct a plan B (given that my North Korean autarky won't work) then I would do this: I would say to any 70 year old (or older) who presents with coronavirus; "Sorry, we cannot treat you in a hospital, here is a load of antibiotics and heroin, go home and pray".
Let God decide. But mitigate the pain.
We risk overwhelming the health system with hundreds of thousands of oldsters who may or may not live, at the expense of younger people who still have a life to live and babies to breed. Triage needs to get a bit medieval.
Comrade...why should a 70 year old or 80 year old pass over treatment in preference to a younger person???
Surely the clinical presentation takes priority--and on that basis the elderly and those with co-morbidity must be prioritised.....
No, that's wrong. This is beyond normal protocol. Save the young.
I wonder if we can resurrect Goebbels et al....the gypsies and the jews...let's not treat those...
Sorry...but just where your argument takes us Ead
Triage will have to happen at some point. If you have two candidates for the last ECMO bed, both equally ill but one is 25, the other 65 there's no contest as to which should get the bed.
The reality is that most people appearing critically ill will be older and admitted...
If this crisis forces us to lose our compassion to old people...then sadly it is a country that has lost its perspective.....
That's all very well, so are you advocating letting the 25 year old die to let the equally ill 65 year old survive, especially considering that with treatment the 25 year old should recover faster? They're hours away from having to make those calls in Italy.
The 25 year old will almost certainly survive at home with hot broth in bed anyway, the 65 year old however may need that hospital bed to survive
And that is a very important point to be honest
However - we're talking about two identically ill patients, one 25, one 65. Both will almost certainly die without the last ECMO machine. Which one do you give it to?
That is a choice for the medics as it raises a serious question of ethics
But this subject is just distastful and I would question the need to even raise it
It could be someones mother or father or close relative whose life is being discounted because they are not young
It is distasteful, and I'm not sure how it got raised. However it is a question our medics will soon be having to answer.
The younger patient could be a father, a son, a brother etc. As utterly brutal as it is, age is probably the fairest filter when deciding between identically ill patients. Young people are generally more likely to pull through, and if they do will recover quicker.
Priority 1 needs to be minimising loss of life, priority two minimising loss of years.
On both priorities is there a clear case that the younger patient should get the last ECMO.
It is unlikely it would arise as it is the elderly mainly with pre existing conditions that are falling to covid 19
But I repeat, it is distasteful and we need to move on
Move on to what?? Care home wage structure?
You're a nice guy Big G, and I wish you well. You probably think I am Satan. I don't care.
Coronavirus is the biggest story of the year and possibly the decade (and so on). No sensible political betting debate can be had without referencing it. So your appeal is fruitless and silly.
I do not think you are satan.
However, you seem to want to be sensational when a little more common sense would be wise
Also I strongly object to the abusive language you use from time to time to your fellow posters
We all need to be kinder and gentler and it does you no credit to indulge in unnnecessary language
Big G, I do sometimes get a pissed off with the constant abuse I get, for simply stating the truth as I see it.
This particularly irks when I have been largely but not entirely right for about five weeks now, and they have all been mostly wrong. I am the messenger and I keep getting shot. In the end I lose my rag.
Pff. It matters not in the end. This crisis dwarfs us all. I wish you and yours well.
If this wretched virus pans out as I fear it will, then it could take many people that I love (including me). I pray that I am wrong. But they are prayers.
You’ve said this so often that I had a scan of your comments log.
For the first week of February you were obsessed with your own predicament in being one of the earliest Corona victims anywhere outside China, Nevertheless your comments on the virus were actually the opposite of alarmist - you predict it will be “contagious but benign” and poo poo suggestions of a death rate of 2%, saying 0.2% would be more credible.
This continues after you recover from your cold, through to the middle of the month. As you start to say more about how it’s going to be a big news story, you aren’t predicting disaster.
In mid February, when I suggest selling the stock market, you comment under my thread but only to say that Trump’s election is now “guaranteed”. I don’t see any financial warnings from you at all.
Something clearly happened to you mid February, since when you have acquired a morbid fascination with the virus and have been enthusiastically posting every piece of bad news you can find. And starting to claim that you had been warning of the economic consequences weeks earlier.
I couldnt see any evidence to support such claims, and apologise in advance if I missed it. The record is there for everyone to see, as is my own.
You’re not getting abuse for your long-standing warnings, even if they exist. You are getting abuse for your childish obsession with this news story and utter callousness when it comes to the potential impact on anyone other than yourself and your own family, as we can clearly see from your comments late last night, which are shameful.
Crude oil $35 a barrel and falling - surely that helps Trump.
$45 not $35
It is $35 right now.
Slightly strange as the BBC are showing $45
Monday's market opened at 11pm GMT. BBC won't have caught up yet.
Uk Crude closed Friday at 4,600 and is now trading out of hours at 3150, which is an utterly staggering collapse in one trading day (indeed not yet even that). Too late to jump in now, the risk of a rebound is too great.
Well, actually, you have to take some responsibility for your actions yourself.
Federico Gatti is grossly irresponsible.
Lombardy is under quarantine. He has evaded quarantine.
ATC at Milan Airport cleared the flight - they broke quarantine?
In the current circumstances, I would say his actions were completely irresponsible.
You can go into a supermarket and pile forty jumbo sized packs of toilet rolls on your trolley. No-one will stop you. But it is completely irresponsible.
You can fly into Lombardy and two days later fly out, even though you know the Italian Gov't has advised against travel out of Lombardy. It is completely irresponsible.
So why did ATC clear the flight if they're not meant to?
From his twitter feed it is clear he works in the UK. Foreign visitors to Lombardy aren’t covered by the lock in. Whether Italy was worried about the legality or the burden, I don’t know.
It is surprising the desks appear to be empty in his photo, although who can blame the staff for making themselves scarce when a plane load of people in from Milan comes by?
I've just had a cheeky flutter on Pence being the next president.
Odds are/were 190-1 on Betfair.
My reasoning is that Trump is in daily contact with lots of people who were at CPAC (or even his rallies). He's got a worse than 10% chance of dying and Pence taking over if he gets it. I'm not much of a gambler but I know my deadpools :-)
If Trump so much as sneezes in the next few weeks those odds will come crashing down...
If you want to be even braver, Nancy Pelosi is 1000-1. Imagine if Pence and Trump end up in ICU at the same time...
The face masks keep you alive. The mob don’t want you breathing, coughing sneezing over them, will beat the life out of you if you don’t put one on. And then make off with the andrex 8pack you hid under the blanket in the pram.
So what we need is not too expensive, but the the cheapest most aesthetically convincing looking thing. I’m getting mine today. Any suggestions.
Here’s the parlour game. The nursery rhyme they will sing 800 years hence about this great plaque year 2020.
I got this one line “Covid Covid the oldies fell down”. The following lines should be on the idea the kiddies didn’t? They inherited the wealth the oldies been sitting on from the days people could afford to buy property, mummified the oldies in toilet roll, reversed brexit, saved the polluted environment, and elected Greta as the worlds first global president.
Here’s the parlour game. The nursery rhyme they will sing 800 years hence about this great plaque year 2020.
I got this one line “Covid Covid the oldies fell down”. The following lines should be on the idea the kiddies didn’t? They inherited the wealth the oldies been sitting on from the days people could afford to buy property, mummified the oldies in toilet roll, reversed brexit, saved the polluted environment, and elected Greta as the worlds first global president.
I've just had a cheeky flutter on Pence being the next president.
Odds are/were 190-1 on Betfair.
My reasoning is that Trump is in daily contact with lots of people who were at CPAC (or even his rallies). He's got a worse than 10% chance of dying and Pence taking over if he gets it. I'm not much of a gambler but I know my deadpools :-)
If Trump so much as sneezes in the next few weeks those odds will come crashing down...
If you want to be even braver, Nancy Pelosi is 1000-1. Imagine if Pence and Trump end up in ICU at the same time...
It definitely won’t be Pelosi. The rules of the “Next President” market refer to the result of the election in November, as opposed to who’s the next person to hold the office. Which is why Trump is favourite.
That’s different to the UK “Next PM” market, which is simply who’s the next person to kiss the Queen’s hand, so the incumbent is a non-runner.
Here’s the parlour game. The nursery rhyme they will sing 800 years hence about this great plaque year 2020.
I got this one line “Covid Covid the oldies fell down”. The following lines should be on the idea the kiddies didn’t? They inherited the wealth the oldies been sitting on from the days people could afford to buy property, mummified the oldies in toilet roll, reversed brexit, saved the polluted environment, and elected Greta as the worlds first global president.
A ring, a ring-a 111, Hand sanitiser has all gone The issue? No tissue And the Mall's closed down.....
The paper said many of his statements dated back years, but that Labour’s general secretary, Jennie Formby, had suspended him as a matter of urgency to “protect the party’s reputation”.
Thoughts on FTSE and DOW by Friday close? And low point this year?
Im thinking 5500/20000 by Friday hitting 5000/17000 as lows in late March/April
Thinking about when to get long, perhaps drip it in through the 5750 to 5000 range?
I was annoyed I didn’t get to take profits before Friday’s pre-close surge, but am pleased I didn’t now.
From the beginning I have had 24,000 as the short term target, and it looks like we will reach that this week. We need to factor in that the US and central banks will be doing everything they can to prop up the markets - another surprise US interest rate is quite likely, as is rushing out some news on a vaccine or cure before they should. I am going to hold my sell positions to 24,000 and then take a view as to what to do next. The lower the market goes, the greater the risk of a bounce, even if the longer term trend is downward.
Previous crises, the market has been on the way back well before the underlying crisis is resolved. So it’s right to be looking for the turn. But I wouldn’t however think of buying back in just yet, there is clearly worse news to come.
Thanks, think you might hit your 24000 by the open tomorrow.
Futures currently trading at 24700.
I also missed the chance to close out before the end of Friday's session, but it doesn't seem to have mattered much.
Now 24,600 and holding steady. I am taking a bit of profit now, just because it’s hard not to when you wake up in the night and find them £1000 up. Tomorrow looks like a rocky day; I really wouldn’t be surprised to see some announcement in the US before markets open there, or shortly after, so am wary of carrying too big a position thru being too greedy.
I concur, and had already done the same.
Although I think we may have reached the point where any announcement results in the briefest of relief rallies, followed by another downward plunge. Any action taken by the authorities is viewed as proof there is something to be really worried about.
The paper said many of his statements dated back years, but that Labour’s general secretary, Jennie Formby, had suspended him as a matter of urgency to “protect the party’s reputation”.
Better day yesterday for new cases outside China - 3,847 vs 4,005 the previous day - OK only down a bit but some way from growing exponentially.
However yesterday was very bad indeed for deaths - 228 - approx double all recent days.
Yes, but ... The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 69 new cases, continuing a downward trend. The death toll rose by one to 51....
With the right control measures.
Of course we don’t have the ROK’s capability for tracking citizens, which is probably equal to Singapore, and second only to China ( though somewhat less oppressive). How big of a factor that might be isn’t quite clear.
The paper said many of his statements dated back years, but that Labour’s general secretary, Jennie Formby, had suspended him as a matter of urgency to “protect the party’s reputation”.
....as the home of the bat-shit crazy."
This is what happens when you go with the "suspend first, ask questions later" policy urged over the antisemitism crisis.
The paper said many of his statements dated back years, but that Labour’s general secretary, Jennie Formby, had suspended him as a matter of urgency to “protect the party’s reputation”.
What the...? Not sure the Labour Party has much of a reputation left.
The paper said many of his statements dated back years, but that Labour’s general secretary, Jennie Formby, had suspended him as a matter of urgency to “protect the party’s reputation”.
How can her statement that it was a matter of urgency not be a lie if some comments go back years? Has he said something particularly egregious very recently?
Here’s the parlour game. The nursery rhyme they will sing 800 years hence about this great plaque year 2020.
I got this one line “Covid Covid the oldies fell down”. The following lines should be on the idea the kiddies didn’t? They inherited the wealth the oldies been sitting on from the days people could afford to buy property, mummified the oldies in toilet roll, reversed brexit, saved the polluted environment, and elected Greta as the worlds first global president.
How unpleasant.
Meh. Gallows humour is always going to walk a fine line.
Corona virus: HMG might do well to announce that it will buy any booked but unused holidays to covid-19 hotspots, so that people do not face any financial loss from doing the right thing.
The paper said many of his statements dated back years, but that Labour’s general secretary, Jennie Formby, had suspended him as a matter of urgency to “protect the party’s reputation”.
How can her statement that it was a matter of urgency not be a lie if some comments go back years? Has he said something particularly egregious very recently?
Cheltenham is now only around 4/1 against being abandoned. The weather forecast is not helping!
Does being abandoned also cover the event being held behind closed doors? That’s looking like the most likely option, not cancelling the event itself but just cancelling the local crowd.
The paper said many of his statements dated back years, but that Labour’s general secretary, Jennie Formby, had suspended him as a matter of urgency to “protect the party’s reputation”.
....as the home of the bat-shit crazy."
This is what happens when you go with the "suspend first, ask questions later" policy urged over the antisemitism crisis.
Or in this case, wait several years, then suspend, then ask questions.
Cheltenham is now only around 4/1 against being abandoned. The weather forecast is not helping!
Does being abandoned also cover the event being held behind closed doors? That’s looking like the most likely option, not cancelling the event itself but just cancelling the local crowd.
Not much point in running Cheltenham without the crowd. It’s not like eg. Football where cancellation cause disruption to a wider season and have significant implications outside of the cancelled event,
On-topic, are we sure Covid-19 will play badly for Trump? He has put Pence in charge; new funding has been announced; the view this is a foreign and specifically Chinese bug might chime with Trump's isolationism.
That's pretty-much the only way I can describe it right now.
I agree with the points below. China and South Korea may be through the worst only because they have taken incredibly stringent controlling measures. The west is way too laissez-faire and we could come a bigger cropper. The US especially.
Thoughts on FTSE and DOW by Friday close? And low point this year?
Im thinking 5500/20000 by Friday hitting 5000/17000 as lows in late March/April
Thinking about when to get long, perhaps drip it in through the 5750 to 5000 range?
I was annoyed I didn’t get to take profits before Friday’s pre-close surge, but am pleased I didn’t now.
From the beginning I have had 24,000 as the short term target, and it looks like we will reach that this week. We need to factor in that the US and central banks will be doing everything they can to prop up the markets - another surprise US interest rate is quite likely, as is rushing out some news on a vaccine or cure before they should. I am going to hold my sell positions to 24,000 and then take a view as to what to do next. The lower the market goes, the greater the risk of a bounce, even if the longer term trend is downward.
Previous crises, the market has been on the way back well before the underlying crisis is resolved. So it’s right to be looking for the turn. But I wouldn’t however think of buying back in just yet, there is clearly worse news to come.
Thanks, think you might hit your 24000 by the open tomorrow.
Futures currently trading at 24700.
I also missed the chance to close out before the end of Friday's session, but it doesn't seem to have mattered much.
Now 24,600 and holding steady. I am taking a bit of profit now, just because it’s hard not to when you wake up in the night and find them £1000 up. Tomorrow looks like a rocky day; I really wouldn’t be surprised to see some announcement in the US before markets open there, or shortly after, so am wary of carrying too big a position thru being too greedy.
I concur, and had already done the same.
Although I think we may have reached the point where any announcement results in the briefest of relief rallies, followed by another downward plunge. Any action taken by the authorities is viewed as proof there is something to be really worried about.
Certainly any significant rally presents a buying opportunity.
Worth noting that, despite expectations that last week would be a second torrid week (incl predictions made on this site), the Dow saw its biggest one day rise last week and actually closed the week marginally higher. I don’t see this week repeating the trick, but we are now more likely on a rollercoaster than a steady sink, even if (as is surely the case if other counties follow the Italian path) the trend must be downward.
The paper said many of his statements dated back years, but that Labour’s general secretary, Jennie Formby, had suspended him as a matter of urgency to “protect the party’s reputation”.
How can her statement that it was a matter of urgency not be a lie if some comments go back years? Has he said something particularly egregious very recently?
Probably only reported (complained of) recently.
I suppose, though correct action or not it doesnt seem a very urgent matter.
Cheltenham is now only around 4/1 against being abandoned. The weather forecast is not helping!
Does being abandoned also cover the event being held behind closed doors? That’s looking like the most likely option, not cancelling the event itself but just cancelling the local crowd.
Not much point in running Cheltenham without the crowd. It’s not like eg. Football where cancellation cause disruption to a wider season and have significant implications outside of the cancelled event,
Betfair's market seems to be on abandonment of the whole meeting, not just one day, not on whether there is a crowd. You would need to check the conditions of any bookmaker's bet.
I've just had a cheeky flutter on Pence being the next president.
Odds are/were 190-1 on Betfair.
My reasoning is that Trump is in daily contact with lots of people who were at CPAC (or even his rallies). He's got a worse than 10% chance of dying and Pence taking over if he gets it. I'm not much of a gambler but I know my deadpools :-)
If Trump so much as sneezes in the next few weeks those odds will come crashing down...
If you want to be even braver, Nancy Pelosi is 1000-1. Imagine if Pence and Trump end up in ICU at the same time...
It definitely won’t be Pelosi. The rules of the “Next President” market refer to the result of the election in November, as opposed to who’s the next person to hold the office. Which is why Trump is favourite.
That’s different to the UK “Next PM” market, which is simply who’s the next person to kiss the Queen’s hand, so the incumbent is a non-runner.
Yes, laying Trump is the better bet, offering other ways to win.
Although if Martin’s scenario comes to pass, who would be the Rep nominee?
Corona virus: HMG might do well to announce that it will buy any booked but unused holidays to covid-19 hotspots, so that people do not face any financial loss from doing the right thing.
The paper said many of his statements dated back years, but that Labour’s general secretary, Jennie Formby, had suspended him as a matter of urgency to “protect the party’s reputation”.
How can her statement that it was a matter of urgency not be a lie if some comments go back years? Has he said something particularly egregious very recently?
They should have announced it at 9.45am today. It's not like there's anything else going on....
The paper said many of his statements dated back years, but that Labour’s general secretary, Jennie Formby, had suspended him as a matter of urgency to “protect the party’s reputation”.
....as the home of the bat-shit crazy."
This is what happens when you go with the "suspend first, ask questions later" policy urged over the antisemitism crisis.
Or in this case, wait several years, then suspend, then ask questions.
That would depend when the complaint was made. Perhaps a Times subscriber can tell us.
Crude oil $35 a barrel and falling - surely that helps Trump.
$45 not $35
It is $35 right now.
Slightly strange as the BBC are showing $45
Monday's market opened at 11pm GMT. BBC won't have caught up yet.
Uk Crude closed Friday at 4,600 and is now trading out of hours at 3150, which is an utterly staggering collapse in one trading day (indeed not yet even that). Too late to jump in now, the risk of a rebound is too great.
That's pretty-much the only way I can describe it right now.
I agree with the points below. China and South Korea may be through the worst only because they have taken incredibly stringent controlling measures. The west is way too laissez-faire and we could come a bigger cropper. The US especially.
I don't think South Korea is impossibly stringent? It sounds pretty much the same as Japan: Ask people to cancel large events and work from home, expand school holidays to shut down schools early/late etc.
If this works - and there should be data from Japan in the next week or two - it's very encouraging, as it's pretty much life continuing as normal. Factories are still running, deliveries are still working, people are still getting their jobs done. A lot of face-to-face stuff has to move online, but that may actually turn out to be *positive* for productivity.
I don't think there's anything there that couldn't easily be implemented in the UK, and TBH I'm mildly mystified that they're not doing it already.
Corona virus: HMG might do well to announce that it will buy any booked but unused holidays to covid-19 hotspots, so that people do not face any financial loss from doing the right thing.
But then, won't Boris use them?
Most people who can afford holidays of this kind will be well able to absorb any losses out of their own funds. And should do so. Given the looming crisis government support should be focussed where there is real need and it can do real good.
Cheltenham is now only around 4/1 against being abandoned. The weather forecast is not helping!
Does being abandoned also cover the event being held behind closed doors? That’s looking like the most likely option, not cancelling the event itself but just cancelling the local crowd.
Not much point in running Cheltenham without the crowd. It’s not like eg. Football where cancellation cause disruption to a wider season and have significant implications outside of the cancelled event,
Betfair's market seems to be on abandonment of the whole meeting, not just one day, not on whether there is a crowd. You would need to check the conditions of any bookmaker's bet.
The bookmakers would want it run, crowd or not.
It’s a thin market and the odds are now lengthening again,
I see there’s a BFE market on whether the Japan Olympic opening ceremony will take place on the scheduled date. No is already favourite.
Cheltenham is now only around 4/1 against being abandoned. The weather forecast is not helping!
Does being abandoned also cover the event being held behind closed doors? That’s looking like the most likely option, not cancelling the event itself but just cancelling the local crowd.
Not much point in running Cheltenham without the crowd. It’s not like eg. Football where cancellation cause disruption to a wider season and have significant implications outside of the cancelled event,
Betfair's market seems to be on abandonment of the whole meeting, not just one day, not on whether there is a crowd. You would need to check the conditions of any bookmaker's bet.
I read it as applying to racing on the first day only. The bet is only won for No if no race at all takes place that day.
I've just had a cheeky flutter on Pence being the next president.
Odds are/were 190-1 on Betfair.
My reasoning is that Trump is in daily contact with lots of people who were at CPAC (or even his rallies). He's got a worse than 10% chance of dying and Pence taking over if he gets it. I'm not much of a gambler but I know my deadpools :-)
If Trump so much as sneezes in the next few weeks those odds will come crashing down...
If you want to be even braver, Nancy Pelosi is 1000-1. Imagine if Pence and Trump end up in ICU at the same time...
It definitely won’t be Pelosi. The rules of the “Next President” market refer to the result of the election in November, as opposed to who’s the next person to hold the office. Which is why Trump is favourite.
That’s different to the UK “Next PM” market, which is simply who’s the next person to kiss the Queen’s hand, so the incumbent is a non-runner.
Yes, laying Trump is the better bet, offering other ways to win.
Although if Martin’s scenario comes to pass, who would be the Rep nominee?
Point taken about Pelosi (and that's why I didn't bet on her).
My bet on Pence is in effect a lay on Trump but with better short-term upside. I doubt Pence could win in November (though who knows - he has the evangelical base, and both Sanders and Biden may look too old) but the more I hear about CPAC, how the confirmed case was in the green room and at Shabbat dinner with a lot of people who have close contact with Trump (e.g. Kellyanne Conway, Rhona McDaniels), the more likely it is that Trump catches it.
If Trump did get 25th-ed then it's very likely Pence would be the nominee mainly because there's no time to organize anything else.
In answer to your question, Nikki Haley is shorter odds than Pence presumably in the theory that Trump will dump Pence and then not make it to the election. That seems the wrong order of events, if anything.
On-topic, are we sure Covid-19 will play badly for Trump? He has put Pence in charge; new funding has been announced; the view this is a foreign and specifically Chinese bug might chime with Trump's isolationism.
If the US contains COVID-19 while the rest of the world suffers, then Trump will be able to claim a great success.
If, on the other hand, the rest of the world contains COVID-19, while the US allows it spread unchecked for a month before implementing any measures to control it, then... well, questions will be asked.
The US is particularly susceptible because (a) there's no social safety net, (b) lots of illegal immigrants who have to work, (c) no ready availability of testing (or decent medical care), and (d) a government denying the severity of the outbreak.
Now, it's possible Trump can play on the "if only we'd closed the borders..." line, and get away with it. But if you get sick, and someone you know dies, and things seem to be much worse in the US than elsewhere... well, you might just ask questions.
Corona virus: HMG might do well to announce that it will buy any booked but unused holidays to covid-19 hotspots, so that people do not face any financial loss from doing the right thing.
But then, won't Boris use them?
Most people who can afford holidays of this kind will be well able to absorb any losses out of their own funds. And should do so. Given the looming crisis government support should be focussed where there is real need and it can do real good.
Hell of a job trying to work out where that will be. If Thomas Cook hadn't already gone, this would have given it the final shove. Do we save remaining travel agents? Flybe has already gone, but how about regional airports they served - do you save them? Bicester Village retail outlets - a big earner when half of China poured through their doors with giant suitcases to fill - but how do you prop them up - and for how long? And as has been mentioned here before, the University sector - are those students coming back any time soon?
Comments
Its just the flu he said...........
BTW a senior Iranian health official said earlier today that there were over 200 deaths in just one city.........
WTF does anyone gain by lying about this .
For example, I live in a house with two people that work in a hospital seemingly with community spread. When university is cancelled I'll go home, so will my housemate from Bristol, my housemate from Manchester, my housemate from London etc.
We have short memories.
In 1968 Hong Kong Flu killed 80,000 people in the UK in just a few months - 4 million people globally. Yet the world did not end. The economy did not collapse and most people today, even those who lived through it, would not look back on 1968 as being a 'plague year'.
Yes this will probably be terrible and we should all be prepared for it. But on the current projections it will only be slightly worse than the 1968 flu epidemic. Shitty, particularly if you lose loved ones, but certainly not the end of life as we know it.
The description in the article that "She [Soon-Yi] is not Woody’s daughter (adopted, step, or otherwise)" is in my opinion only true in a very formal legal sense.
In practice, he did play the role of father, then lover.
Britain, in turn, will also be one of the countries most vulnerable to those international economic after-effects at the end of this year, because of a decision it has made.
The multiple stories of emotional and physical abuse by Farrow in that article are dreadful, and most tellingly of all the ones concerning her treatment of Soon-Yi.
We were friends, oh yes, we were
And she just took him from my life
Oh yes, she did
So young and vain, she brought me pain
But I'm wise enough to say
She will leave him, one thoughtless day
She'll just leave him and go away
I think the description of Allen's role in the article is misleading (as you partially agree, as you acknowledge he was a stepfather whereas the article says he wasn't).
So I am inclined to treat the rest of the article with some scepticism, until it is corroborated.
Taking into account the dreaded lurgy and its knock-on economic effects I reckon Trump's chances of re-election are below 30%. (That's not an offer to bet.)
https://twitter.com/mmqwalker/status/1236652521600450560?s=21
It is worth remember, of course, that the S&P500 is still up about 7% year-over-year, and valuations are still... toppy... by historic standards.
There are 150 confirmed cases to date, of which 90 have fully recovered and been discharged from hospital. No patients were discharged on Sunday.
Of the 60 still in hospital, most are stable or improving. Nine are in critical condition in the intensive care unit.
As of noon on Sunday, the Health Ministry has identified 3,649 close contacts, who have been quarantined. Of these, 615 are currently quarantined, and 3,034 have completed their quarantine.
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/coronavirus-12-new-cases-in-singapore-including-9-from-safra-jurong-cluster
It's an impressive effort, though. Presumably a problem is that you have to keep re-testing. In Britain the test are I think focused on people with lung disorders, to see which of them in fact have the virus. Are the Germans testing other people, and on what basis?
I'm surprised more people aren't advocating using our island status by refusing entry to anyone who doesn't test negative (including Brits returning home) - anyone who refuses or tests positive goes into quarantine. But it's probably sufficiently spread by now for that to be too late.
Night everyone!
Federico Gatti is grossly irresponsible.
Lombardy is under quarantine. He has evaded quarantine.
I'm surprised more people aren't advocating using our island status by refusing entry to anyone who doesn't test negative (including Brits returning home) - anyone who refuses or tests positive goes into quarantine. But it's probably sufficiently spread by now for that to be too late.
I think testing strategies will vary depending on the situation.
If you're dealing with single cases you will try to identify every contact and test them. Once clusters are forming you may begin to focus on the symptomatic ones, maybe depending on severity.
You have to remember how limited resources are. In the UK there are 1-2k tests reported/day. It's barely possible to test all suspicious cases already in the country, testing anyone entering is logistically impossible.
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1236801355181748224
It seems that the WA outbreak could be massive. So, someone caught coronavirus off of someone from WA, who then went on the PH, and passed it onto someone else.
You can go into a supermarket and pile forty jumbo sized packs of toilet rolls on your trolley. No-one will stop you. But it is completely irresponsible.
You can fly into Lombardy and two days later fly out, even though you know the Italian Gov't has advised against travel out of Lombardy. It is completely irresponsible.
It is not enough to say the Gov't did not prevent me from doing this.
It was possible to leave Lombardy last night by train, even though the Italian Gov't advised against it and were putting restrictions in place.
Many Italians did so. It was grossly irresponsible.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1236785911616200704
https://twitter.com/metpoliceuk/status/1236833681571971072?s=20
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/09/air-new-zealand-says-impact-from-coronavirus-likely-to-be-bigger-than-estimated
Brent Crude now $35 a barrel, down 30% in a few hours after Russia refused to cut supply.
For the first week of February you were obsessed with your own predicament in being one of the earliest Corona victims anywhere outside China, Nevertheless your comments on the virus were actually the opposite of alarmist - you predict it will be “contagious but benign” and poo poo suggestions of a death rate of 2%, saying 0.2% would be more credible.
This continues after you recover from your cold, through to the middle of the month. As you start to say more about how it’s going to be a big news story, you aren’t predicting disaster.
In mid February, when I suggest selling the stock market, you comment under my thread but only to say that Trump’s election is now “guaranteed”. I don’t see any financial warnings from you at all.
Something clearly happened to you mid February, since when you have acquired a morbid fascination with the virus and have been enthusiastically posting every piece of bad news you can find. And starting to claim that you had been warning of the economic consequences weeks earlier.
I couldnt see any evidence to support such claims, and apologise in advance if I missed it. The record is there for everyone to see, as is my own.
You’re not getting abuse for your long-standing warnings, even if they exist. You are getting abuse for your childish obsession with this news story and utter callousness when it comes to the potential impact on anyone other than yourself and your own family, as we can clearly see from your comments late last night, which are shameful.
However yesterday was very bad indeed for deaths - 228 - approx double all recent days.
And of course it's in the US so interesting if this starts to change perceptions amongst US public.
It is surprising the desks appear to be empty in his photo, although who can blame the staff for making themselves scarce when a plane load of people in from Milan comes by?
Odds are/were 190-1 on Betfair.
My reasoning is that Trump is in daily contact with lots of people who were at CPAC (or even his rallies). He's got a worse than 10% chance of dying and Pence taking over if he gets it. I'm not much of a gambler but I know my deadpools :-)
If Trump so much as sneezes in the next few weeks those odds will come crashing down...
If you want to be even braver, Nancy Pelosi is 1000-1. Imagine if Pence and Trump end up in ICU at the same time...
So what we need is not too expensive, but the the cheapest most aesthetically convincing looking thing. I’m getting mine today. Any suggestions.
I got this one line “Covid Covid the oldies fell down”.
The following lines should be on the idea the kiddies didn’t? They inherited the wealth the oldies been sitting on from the days people could afford to buy property, mummified the oldies in toilet roll, reversed brexit, saved the polluted environment, and elected Greta as the worlds first global president.
That’s different to the UK “Next PM” market, which is simply who’s the next person to kiss the Queen’s hand, so the incumbent is a non-runner.
Hand sanitiser has all gone
The issue? No tissue
And the Mall's closed down.....
The paper said many of his statements dated back years, but that Labour’s general secretary, Jennie Formby, had suspended him as a matter of urgency to “protect the party’s reputation”.
Although I think we may have reached the point where any announcement results in the briefest of relief rallies, followed by another downward plunge. Any action taken by the authorities is viewed as proof there is something to be really worried about.
That's always been a tried and true method of propping up prices and injecting liquidity into the economy.
Of course, it always ends badly, but that's for (the day after) tomorrow.
The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 69 new cases, continuing a downward trend. The death toll rose by one to 51....
With the right control measures.
Of course we don’t have the ROK’s capability for tracking citizens, which is probably equal to Singapore, and second only to China ( though somewhat less oppressive). How big of a factor that might be isn’t quite clear.
That's pretty-much the only way I can describe it right now.
I agree with the points below. China and South Korea may be through the worst only because they have taken incredibly stringent controlling measures. The west is way too laissez-faire and we could come a bigger cropper. The US especially.
Worth noting that, despite expectations that last week would be a second torrid week (incl predictions made on this site), the Dow saw its biggest one day rise last week and actually closed the week marginally higher. I don’t see this week repeating the trick, but we are now more likely on a rollercoaster than a steady sink, even if (as is surely the case if other counties follow the Italian path) the trend must be downward.
Although if Martin’s scenario comes to pass, who would be the Rep nominee?
If this works - and there should be data from Japan in the next week or two - it's very encouraging, as it's pretty much life continuing as normal. Factories are still running, deliveries are still working, people are still getting their jobs done. A lot of face-to-face stuff has to move online, but that may actually turn out to be *positive* for productivity.
I don't think there's anything there that couldn't easily be implemented in the UK, and TBH I'm mildly mystified that they're not doing it already.
It’s a thin market and the odds are now lengthening again,
I see there’s a BFE market on whether the Japan Olympic opening ceremony will take place on the scheduled date. No is already favourite.
My bet on Pence is in effect a lay on Trump but with better short-term upside. I doubt Pence could win in November (though who knows - he has the evangelical base, and both Sanders and Biden may look too old) but the more I hear about CPAC, how the confirmed case was in the green room and at Shabbat dinner with a lot of people who have close contact with Trump (e.g. Kellyanne Conway, Rhona McDaniels), the more likely it is that Trump catches it.
If Trump did get 25th-ed then it's very likely Pence would be the nominee mainly because there's no time to organize anything else.
In answer to your question, Nikki Haley is shorter odds than Pence presumably in the theory that Trump will dump Pence and then not make it to the election. That seems the wrong order of events, if anything.
If, on the other hand, the rest of the world contains COVID-19, while the US allows it spread unchecked for a month before implementing any measures to control it, then... well, questions will be asked.
The US is particularly susceptible because (a) there's no social safety net, (b) lots of illegal immigrants who have to work, (c) no ready availability of testing (or decent medical care), and (d) a government denying the severity of the outbreak.
Now, it's possible Trump can play on the "if only we'd closed the borders..." line, and get away with it. But if you get sick, and someone you know dies, and things seem to be much worse in the US than elsewhere... well, you might just ask questions.