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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting markets still thinking Trump will get re-elected but the gap is closing

The big development in what is by far the biggest betting market of all, who’ll won WH2020 has not been the emergence of Biden as the clear Dem contender but the growing doubts about how the White House is handling it. His recent boasts have not helped perceptions. This from the Washington Post.

Read the full story here

Benpointer

First, unlike Trump , hopefully.

tyson

@foxinsoxuk

The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....

IanB2

Second

Or third. Like the sheepdog.

tyson

Katie Tempest is superb on 6 music live

RobD

eadric said:

fpt for alex

The advice on masks is completely wrong.

The point of compulsory mask wearing is not to reduce the risk of infection for the wearer (the effect is debatable and marginal), it is to reduce the risk of spreading (through sneezes and coughs) by the carrier.

It's that simple. Yet you haven't grasped this.

Quite a leap of faith to think that brits will keep it on to sneeze/cough, and won't wipe their nose and mouth afterwards.

TGOHF666

Crude oil $35 a barrel and falling - surely that helps Trump.

IanB2

eadric said:

fpt for alex

The advice on masks is completely wrong.

The point of compulsory mask wearing is not to reduce the risk of infection for the wearer (the effect is debatable and marginal), it is to reduce the risk of spreading (through sneezes and coughs) by the carrier.

It's that simple. Yet you haven't grasped this.

But medics say that if they are not used properly - as tends to be the case by untrained people - they can be positively harmful. Most people keep fiddling with it and adjusting with it such that it becomes a repository for germs

Monkeys

How does the betting work if VP's or presidential candidates start dying, or being hospitalised to the point they're out of the game? I can see why the virus is bad for Trump purely due to his almost refusal to be statesmanlike, but it's too messy. If Trump is out of the running and Pence steps in, or Biden is out and his VP steps in....

I'm not sure that there aren't too many acts of God in the offing to make a prediction.

FrancisUrquhart

RobD said:

eadric said:

fpt for alex

The advice on masks is completely wrong.

The point of compulsory mask wearing is not to reduce the risk of infection for the wearer (the effect is debatable and marginal), it is to reduce the risk of spreading (through sneezes and coughs) by the carrier.

It's that simple. Yet you haven't grasped this.

Quite a leap of faith to think that brits will keep it on to sneeze/cough, and won't wipe their nose and mouth afterwards.

I was on a peasant wagon a few weeks ago and the person opposite spent more time messing about with the mask than actually having it on. I think the big problem is that in Asian it has been social norm that if you are sick you wear a mask to protect others, here we just don't do that.

kle4

RobD said:

eadric said:

fpt for alex

The advice on masks is completely wrong.

The point of compulsory mask wearing is not to reduce the risk of infection for the wearer (the effect is debatable and marginal), it is to reduce the risk of spreading (through sneezes and coughs) by the carrier.

It's that simple. Yet you haven't grasped this.

Quite a leap of faith to think that brits will keep it on to sneeze/cough, and won't wipe their nose and mouth afterwards.

As established yesterday we cannot even be trusted to cook pasta properly.

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/skarlamangla/status/1236776516396040192

Monkeys

tyson said:

@foxinsoxuk

The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....

According to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ a German has died, but having arrived in Egypt with the virus. It makes me wonder.

Anabobazina

If everyone who can work from home does so for a few weeks, then that will do a great deal to reduce the spread. Not everyone can, but many can, and should.

TGOHF666

https://twitter.com/oilsheppard/status/1236774656721510402?s=21

IshmaelZ

What the government should do:

Advise against all but essential travel to EVERYWHERE, NOW. Broad brush, high impact but advice not mandatory so not counterproductively authoritarian.

RobD

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/skarlamangla/status/1236776516396040192

Gone from denial to stage two quicker than the UK.

Chameleon

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter. com/skarlamangla/status/1236776516396040192

It's news to us all that the US was ever in the containment stage.

FrancisUrquhart

Anabobazina said:

If everyone who can work from home does so for a few weeks, then that will do a great deal to reduce the spread. Not everyone can, but many can, and should.

As I posted on previous thread, I was contacted by a friend at a leading university, who were told this evening this was now the preferred option for spending their days. No meetings, no presentations, etc with research done from home.

I think we are going to see this rolled out pretty quickly now. Continuing university activities as normal seems a terrible terrible idea, they are massive germ factories at the best of times.

Chameleon

eadric said:

tyson said:

@foxinsoxuk

The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....

You're probably right. In the end it will be a wash.

If I had to construct a plan B (given that my North Korean autarky won't work) then I would do this: I would say to any 70 year old (or older) who presents with coronavirus; "Sorry, we cannot treat you in a hospital, here is a load of antibiotics and heroin, go home and pray".

Let God decide. But mitigate the pain.

We risk overwhelming the health system with hundreds of thousands of oldsters who may or may not live, at the expense of younger people who still have a life to live and babies to breed. Triage needs to get a bit medieval.

Italy is starting triage of patients for ICU facilities from tomorrow iirc. 100 deaths a day may become a pipe dream

kle4

eadric said:

tyson said:

@foxinsoxuk

The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....

Let God decide.

Caedite eos. Novit enim Dominus qui sunt eius!

Just kidding.

alex_

eadric said:

tyson said:

@foxinsoxuk

The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....

You're probably right. In the end it will be a wash.

If I had to construct a plan B (given that my North Korean autarky won't work) then I would do this: I would say to any 70 year old (or older) who presents with coronavirus; "Sorry, we cannot treat you in a hospital, here is a load of antibiotics and heroin, go home and pray".

Let God decide. But mitigate the pain.

We risk overwhelming the health system with hundreds of thousands of oldsters who may or may not live, at the expense of younger people who still have a life to live and babies to breed. Triage needs to get a bit medieval.

Eh? The whole point is that younger people aren't dying from it in any sort of significant numbers! So you'd be clearing the hospitals of old people for... who?

RobD

eadric said:

RobD said:

eadric said:

fpt for alex

The advice on masks is completely wrong.

The point of compulsory mask wearing is not to reduce the risk of infection for the wearer (the effect is debatable and marginal), it is to reduce the risk of spreading (through sneezes and coughs) by the carrier.

It's that simple. Yet you haven't grasped this.

Quite a leap of faith to think that brits will keep it on to sneeze/cough, and won't wipe their nose and mouth afterwards.

If you've got a big mask on you can't constantly touch your mouth and nose. It's fairly basic stuff.

Implying it's somehow firmly attached to ones face. That would be a drastic move for the government...

edmundintokyo

These numbers are way too high for Trump even *before* you price in a deadly pandemic that he's completely botched and a huge resulting economic shock.

Biden is popular. He has consistent head-to-head polling leads agains Trump, he has strong appeal with the demographics Hillary couldn't get (both black people and low-education white people), and he has strong appeal in the right places. He will probably win.

Luckyguy1983

By the way, I do wonder if a hydrogen peroxide/distilled water protocol should be considered as a potential treatment for Coronavirus. I think this for two reasons. Firstly, hydrogen peroxide is extremely effective against all sorts of pathogens. Secondly because hydrogen peroxide releases masses of oxygen into the body, and Foxy told us this morning that low oxygen in the blood is a symptom of Coronavirus. The effect I note when using it is that it behaves like an internal version of hyperbaric oxygen therapy.

This is not medical advice, and I wouldn't have the ability to know how it could be administered safely and effectively. In a country like Iran, if health services are at breaking point, and hydrogen peroxide could be safely administered, it could prove to be a cheap and effective first line of defence.

RobD

FrancisUrquhart said:

Anabobazina said:

If everyone who can work from home does so for a few weeks, then that will do a great deal to reduce the spread. Not everyone can, but many can, and should.

As I posted on previous thread, I was contacted by a friend at a leading university, who were told this evening this was now the preferred option for spending their days. No meetings, no presentations, etc with research done from home.

I think we are going to see this rolled out pretty quickly now.

They've already stopped classes at Stanford. Lectures through WebEx is the new norm.

TGOHF666

Cheltenham Festival this week - no sign of that being canned.

FrancisUrquhart

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Anabobazina said:

If everyone who can work from home does so for a few weeks, then that will do a great deal to reduce the spread. Not everyone can, but many can, and should.

As I posted on previous thread, I was contacted by a friend at a leading university, who were told this evening this was now the preferred option for spending their days. No meetings, no presentations, etc with research done from home.

I think we are going to see this rolled out pretty quickly now.

They've already stopped classes at Stanford. Lectures through WebEx is the new norm.

I would be surprised if that doesn't happen here very soon. In fact, they will be off for Easter anyway shortly. I would just cut the term now.

tyson

eadric said:

tyson said:

@foxinsoxuk

The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....

You're probably right. In the end it will be a wash.

If I had to construct a plan B (given that my North Korean autarky won't work) then I would do this: I would say to any 70 year old (or older) who presents with coronavirus; "Sorry, we cannot treat you in a hospital, here is a load of antibiotics and heroin, go home and pray".

Let God decide. But mitigate the pain.

We risk overwhelming the health system with hundreds of thousands of oldsters who may or may not live, at the expense of younger people who still have a life to live and babies to breed. Triage needs to get a bit medieval.

Comrade...why should a 70 year old or 80 year old pass over treatment in preference to a younger person???

Surely the clinical presentation takes priority--and on that basis the elderly and those with co-morbidity must be prioritised.....

RobD

Luckyguy1983 said:

By the way, I do wonder if a hydrogen peroxide/distilled water protocol should be considered as a potential treatment for Coronavirus. I think this for two reasons. Firstly, hydrogen peroxide is extremely effective against all sorts of pathogens. Secondly because hydrogen peroxide releases masses of oxygen into the body, and Foxy told us this morning that low oxygen in the blood is a symptom of Coronavirus. The effect I note when using it is that it behaves like an internal version of hyperbaric oxygen therapy.

This is not medical advice, and I wouldn't have the ability to know how it could be administered safely and effectively. In a country like Iran, if health services are at breaking point, and hydrogen peroxide could be safely administered, it could prove to be a cheap and effective first line of defence.

Perhaps your disclaimer should have been at the front? Leave finding the treatment to the experts rather than speculating. Putting something like that out there is dangerous, as some people will be desperate to try any quackery.

alex_

eadric said:

tyson said:

@foxinsoxuk

The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....

You're probably right. In the end it will be a wash.

So basically you seem to believe it will all be a wash, all countries affected equally, but also there are all sorts of measures we should be taking to improve our outcomes. These are two fundamentally contradictory positions unless all countries react in exactly the same way.

IshmaelZ

This is actually End Times stuff, isn't it? I mean, less than three years ago we thought NOM in a General Election was a major upset. And that Brexit mattered.

alex_

eadric said:

alex_ said:

eadric said:

tyson said:

@foxinsoxuk

The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....

You're probably right. In the end it will be a wash.

If I had to construct a plan B (given that my North Korean autarky won't work) then I would do this: I would say to any 70 year old (or older) who presents with coronavirus; "Sorry, we cannot treat you in a hospital, here is a load of antibiotics and heroin, go home and pray".

Let God decide. But mitigate the pain.

We risk overwhelming the health system with hundreds of thousands of oldsters who may or may not live, at the expense of younger people who still have a life to live and babies to breed. Triage needs to get a bit medieval.

Eh? The whole point is that younger people aren't dying from it in any sort of significant numbers! So you'd be clearing the hospitals of old people for... who?

Young people who have a life ahead of them.

Read that doctor from Italy. Young people are getting this. And badly.

And not dying.

FrancisUrquhart

Five more people have tested positive for coronavirus in Northern Ireland, the Department of Health said.

FrancisUrquhart

IshmaelZ said:

This is actually End Times stuff, isn't it? I mean, less than three years ago we thought NOM in a General Election was a major upset. And that Brexit mattered.

Remember all those scare stories of what if the French try to delay ferries for a day over requiring more paperwork....and there will be a big lorry park. And that was the end of times.

I actually wonder if this is hurting people concerns about this. I have literally had yet another highly educated friend dismiss problem in Italy of well they have lots of oldies and flu kills twice as many there as here.

Foxy

eadric said:

tyson said:

@foxinsoxuk

The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....

You're probably right. In the end it will be a wash.

If I had to construct a plan B (given that my North Korean autarky won't work) then I would do this: I would say to any 70 year old (or older) who presents with coronavirus; "Sorry, we cannot treat you in a hospital, here is a load of antibiotics and heroin, go home and pray".

I would not recommend that approach. Diamorphine does relieve respiratory distress, but is a respiratory depressant so will kill some who would otherwise scrape through. I would recommend avoiding all respiratory depressants such as opiates, barbiturates, even benzodiazepines and alcohol.

When ICU capacity is reached, we will use operating theatres and recovery areas for overflow, but after that it gets to be a form of rationing, probably based on who is most likely to make it.

Big_G_NorthWales

TGOHF666 said:

Cheltenham Festival this week - no sign of that being canned.

I expect it to be cancelled sometime this week

rottenborough

eadric said:

alex_ said:

eadric said:

tyson said:

@foxinsoxuk

The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....

You're probably right. In the end it will be a wash.

If I had to construct a plan B (given that my North Korean autarky won't work) then I would do this: I would say to any 70 year old (or older) who presents with coronavirus; "Sorry, we cannot treat you in a hospital, here is a load of antibiotics and heroin, go home and pray".

Let God decide. But mitigate the pain.

We risk overwhelming the health system with hundreds of thousands of oldsters who may or may not live, at the expense of younger people who still have a life to live and babies to breed. Triage needs to get a bit medieval.

Eh? The whole point is that younger people aren't dying from it in any sort of significant numbers! So you'd be clearing the hospitals of old people for... who?

Young people who have a life ahead of them.

Read that doctor from Italy. Young people are getting this. And badly.

If we are faced with a terrible choice (and it is terrible) we have to save the young and the future.

The young people getting it badly in Italy is a mystery. Has it mutated?

FrancisUrquhart

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TGOHF666 said:

Cheltenham Festival this week - no sign of that being canned.

I expect it to be cancelled sometime this week

When Boris speak tomorrow. If it isn't canned, that is absolutely idiotic.

kle4

IshmaelZ said:

This is actually End Times stuff, isn't it? I mean, less than three years ago we thought NOM in a General Election was a major upset. And that Brexit mattered.

Things matter even in such times. Given the death rates in many historical pandemics its incredible to think that civilization survived at all, sometimes with remarkably little deviation at least in proportion to the catastrophic loss of life in such short periods of time.

Edit: But one of the most profound (to me) comments on humanity that has stuck with me, was actually in Watership Down, and it was about our ability to weather disaster. Collectively at any rate.

IshmaelZ

Foxy said:

eadric said:

tyson said:

@foxinsoxuk

The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....

You're probably right. In the end it will be a wash.

If I had to construct a plan B (given that my North Korean autarky won't work) then I would do this: I would say to any 70 year old (or older) who presents with coronavirus; "Sorry, we cannot treat you in a hospital, here is a load of antibiotics and heroin, go home and pray".

I would not recommend that approach. Diamorphine does relieve respiratory distress, but is a respiratory depressant so will kill some who would otherwise scrape through. I would recommend avoiding all respiratory depressants such as opiates, barbiturates, even benzodiazepines and alcohol.

When ICU capacity is reached, we will use operating theatres and recovery areas for overflow, but after that it gets to be a form of rationing, probably based on who is most likely to make it.

I don't think he intends the heroin to relieve respiratory distress.

tyson

IshmaelZ said:

This is actually End Times stuff, isn't it? I mean, less than three years ago we thought NOM in a General Election was a major upset. And that Brexit mattered.

Not quite end of times stuff...but fucking horrible all the same....

Life is going to change....there will be a before and after...but the zombie apocalypse, possibly not....

Big_G_NorthWales

eadric said:

alex_ said:

eadric said:

tyson said:

@foxinsoxuk

The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....

You're probably right. In the end it will be a wash.

If I had to construct a plan B (given that my North Korean autarky won't work) then I would do this: I would say to any 70 year old (or older) who presents with coronavirus; "Sorry, we cannot treat you in a hospital, here is a load of antibiotics and heroin, go home and pray".

Let God decide. But mitigate the pain.

We risk overwhelming the health system with hundreds of thousands of oldsters who may or may not live, at the expense of younger people who still have a life to live and babies to breed. Triage needs to get a bit medieval.

Eh? The whole point is that younger people aren't dying from it in any sort of significant numbers! So you'd be clearing the hospitals of old people for... who?

Young people who have a life ahead of them.

Read that doctor from Italy. Young people are getting this. And badly.

If we are faced with a terrible choice (and it is terrible) we have to save the young and the future.

You are simply disgusting and should be ashamed of yourself

All life is precious

IanB2

kle4 said:

IshmaelZ said:

This is actually End Times stuff, isn't it? I mean, less than three years ago we thought NOM in a General Election was a major upset. And that Brexit mattered.

Things matter even in such times. Given the death rates in many historical pandemics its incredible to think that civilization survived at all, sometimes with remarkably little deviation at least in proportion to the catastrophic loss of life in such short periods of time.

Throughout history people were used to random death, up until the later twentieth century.

alex_

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TGOHF666 said:

Cheltenham Festival this week - no sign of that being canned.

I expect it to be cancelled sometime this week

You do know it starts on Tuesday?

Monkeys

alex_ said:

eadric said:

tyson said:

@foxinsoxuk

The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....

You're probably right. In the end it will be a wash.

So basically you seem to believe it will all be a wash, all countries affected equally, but also there are all sorts of measures we should be taking to improve our outcomes. These are two fundamentally contradictory positions unless all countries react in exactly the same way.

I'm wondering about globally now. Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan have no functioning health system, which then impacts on Pakistan but......

Our health system might break down but it ought to contain some of it. So even if we're infected equally we should have very different outcomes, including societally. Though we will have to make choices and might have civil disorder but not as horrific as Syria which is on a whole other level.

Anabobazina

FrancisUrquhart said:

Anabobazina said:

If everyone who can work from home does so for a few weeks, then that will do a great deal to reduce the spread. Not everyone can, but many can, and should.

As I posted on previous thread, I was contacted by a friend at a leading university, who were told this evening this was now the preferred option for spending their days. No meetings, no presentations, etc with research done from home.

I think we are going to see this rolled out pretty quickly now. Continuing university activities as normal seems a terrible terrible idea, they are massive germ factories at the best of times.

Seems eminently sensible

FrancisUrquhart

alex_ said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TGOHF666 said:

Cheltenham Festival this week - no sign of that being canned.

I expect it to be cancelled sometime this week

You do know it starts on Tuesday?

It will get canned tomorrow, nailed on.

alex_

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

alex_ said:

eadric said:

tyson said:

@foxinsoxuk

The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....

You're probably right. In the end it will be a wash.

If I had to construct a plan B (given that my North Korean autarky won't work) then I would do this: I would say to any 70 year old (or older) who presents with coronavirus; "Sorry, we cannot treat you in a hospital, here is a load of antibiotics and heroin, go home and pray".

Let God decide. But mitigate the pain.

We risk overwhelming the health system with hundreds of thousands of oldsters who may or may not live, at the expense of younger people who still have a life to live and babies to breed. Triage needs to get a bit medieval.

Eh? The whole point is that younger people aren't dying from it in any sort of significant numbers! So you'd be clearing the hospitals of old people for... who?

Young people who have a life ahead of them.

Read that doctor from Italy. Young people are getting this. And badly.

If we are faced with a terrible choice (and it is terrible) we have to save the young and the future.

The young people getting it badly in Italy is a mystery. Has it mutated?

Some young people I think. Not all young people.

Big_G_NorthWales

alex_ said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TGOHF666 said:

Cheltenham Festival this week - no sign of that being canned.

I expect it to be cancelled sometime this week

You do know it starts on Tuesday?

Sorry I thought it was next week.

Foxy

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

alex_ said:

eadric said:

tyson said:

@foxinsoxuk

The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....

You're probably right. In the end it will be a wash.

If I had to construct a plan B (given that my North Korean autarky won't work) then I would do this: I would say to any 70 year old (or older) who presents with coronavirus; "Sorry, we cannot treat you in a hospital, here is a load of antibiotics and heroin, go home and pray".

Let God decide. But mitigate the pain.

We risk overwhelming the health system with hundreds of thousands of oldsters who may or may not live, at the expense of younger people who still have a life to live and babies to breed. Triage needs to get a bit medieval.

Eh? The whole point is that younger people aren't dying from it in any sort of significant numbers! So you'd be clearing the hospitals of old people for... who?

Young people who have a life ahead of them.

Read that doctor from Italy. Young people are getting this. And badly.

If we are faced with a terrible choice (and it is terrible) we have to save the young and the future.

The young people getting it badly in Italy is a mystery. Has it mutated?

To a degree, but enough young people get it badly to fill ICU fairly quickly it seems, though fortunately most make it as a result.

Luckyguy1983

RobD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

By the way, I do wonder if a hydrogen peroxide/distilled water protocol should be considered as a potential treatment for Coronavirus. I think this for two reasons. Firstly, hydrogen peroxide is extremely effective against all sorts of pathogens. Secondly because hydrogen peroxide releases masses of oxygen into the body, and Foxy told us this morning that low oxygen in the blood is a symptom of Coronavirus. The effect I note when using it is that it behaves like an internal version of hyperbaric oxygen therapy.

This is not medical advice, and I wouldn't have the ability to know how it could be administered safely and effectively. In a country like Iran, if health services are at breaking point, and hydrogen peroxide could be safely administered, it could prove to be a cheap and effective first line of defence.

Perhaps your disclaimer should have been at the front? Leave finding the treatment to the experts rather than speculating. Putting something like that out there is dangerous, as some people will be desperate to try any quackery.

You think someone is going to be convinced enough by my post to try a new medical approach on themselves but not to read to the end of the post? Ok then.

And I utterly disagree with the general tenor of your post. Our health is our own responsibility. Insofar as we depend on the medical profession for treatment, we should still understand fully how everything works so we can make informed choices.

IanB2

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TGOHF666 said:

Cheltenham Festival this week - no sign of that being canned.

I expect it to be cancelled sometime this week

Back up to 11 on BFE

kle4

another_richard said:

A friend of my mother has just booked a cruise.

It seems they're going cheap at the moment.

I had been planning to go on one myself. Even being in a lower risk age bracket, probably not worth it.

edmundintokyo

FrancisUrquhart said:

IshmaelZ said:

This is actually End Times stuff, isn't it? I mean, less than three years ago we thought NOM in a General Election was a major upset. And that Brexit mattered.

Remember all those scare stories of what if the French try to delay ferries for a day over requiring more paperwork....and there will be a big lorry park. And that was the end of times.

Happy days when Britain's worst problems were self-inflicted

rottenborough

TGOHF666 said:

Crude oil $35 a barrel and falling - surely that helps Trump.

Isn't there a figure below which vast swathes of US fracking system becomes unviable and they are heavily in debt?

alex_

Monkeys said:

alex_ said:

eadric said:

tyson said:

@foxinsoxuk

The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....

You're probably right. In the end it will be a wash.

So basically you seem to believe it will all be a wash, all countries affected equally, but also there are all sorts of measures we should be taking to improve our outcomes. These are two fundamentally contradictory positions unless all countries react in exactly the same way.

I'm wondering about globally now. Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan have no functioning health system, which then impacts on Pakistan but......

Our health system might break down but it ought to contain some of it. So even if we're infected equally we should have very different outcomes, including societally. Though we will have to make choices and might have civil disorder but not as horrific as Syria which is on a whole other level.

Places like Syria would probably "cope" far better simply because societal breakdown is a fact of life. It's not a diversion from the norm.

Big_G_NorthWales

eadric said:

tyson said:

eadric said:

tyson said:

@foxinsoxuk

The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....

You're probably right. In the end it will be a wash.

If I had to construct a plan B (given that my North Korean autarky won't work) then I would do this: I would say to any 70 year old (or older) who presents with coronavirus; "Sorry, we cannot treat you in a hospital, here is a load of antibiotics and heroin, go home and pray".

Let God decide. But mitigate the pain.

We risk overwhelming the health system with hundreds of thousands of oldsters who may or may not live, at the expense of younger people who still have a life to live and babies to breed. Triage needs to get a bit medieval.

Comrade...why should a 70 year old or 80 year old pass over treatment in preference to a younger person???

Surely the clinical presentation takes priority--and on that basis the elderly and those with co-morbidity must be prioritised.....

No, that's wrong. This is beyond normal protocol. Save the young.

Just outrageous and you are so wrong.

RobD

Luckyguy1983 said:

RobD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

By the way, I do wonder if a hydrogen peroxide/distilled water protocol should be considered as a potential treatment for Coronavirus. I think this for two reasons. Firstly, hydrogen peroxide is extremely effective against all sorts of pathogens. Secondly because hydrogen peroxide releases masses of oxygen into the body, and Foxy told us this morning that low oxygen in the blood is a symptom of Coronavirus. The effect I note when using it is that it behaves like an internal version of hyperbaric oxygen therapy.

This is not medical advice, and I wouldn't have the ability to know how it could be administered safely and effectively. In a country like Iran, if health services are at breaking point, and hydrogen peroxide could be safely administered, it could prove to be a cheap and effective first line of defence.

Perhaps your disclaimer should have been at the front? Leave finding the treatment to the experts rather than speculating. Putting something like that out there is dangerous, as some people will be desperate to try any quackery.

You think someone is going to be convinced enough by my post to try a new medical approach on themselves but not to read to the end of the post? Ok then.

And I utterly disagree with the general tenor of your post. Our health is our own responsibility. Insofar as we depend on the medical profession for treatment, we should still understand fully how everything works so we can make informed choices.

People believe all sorts of things. And as for the tenor of my post, drinking god knows what in the hope it might prevent/cure a disease without any clinical trials or testing is just insane. Informed choices my arse.

alex_

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TGOHF666 said:

Cheltenham Festival this week - no sign of that being canned.

I expect it to be cancelled sometime this week

Back up to 11 on BFE

This betting market is probably largely populated by punters with great antepost bets.

tyson

eadric said:

tyson said:

eadric said:

tyson said:

@foxinsoxuk

The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....

You're probably right. In the end it will be a wash.

If I had to construct a plan B (given that my North Korean autarky won't work) then I would do this: I would say to any 70 year old (or older) who presents with coronavirus; "Sorry, we cannot treat you in a hospital, here is a load of antibiotics and heroin, go home and pray".

Let God decide. But mitigate the pain.

We risk overwhelming the health system with hundreds of thousands of oldsters who may or may not live, at the expense of younger people who still have a life to live and babies to breed. Triage needs to get a bit medieval.

Comrade...why should a 70 year old or 80 year old pass over treatment in preference to a younger person???

Surely the clinical presentation takes priority--and on that basis the elderly and those with co-morbidity must be prioritised.....

No, that's wrong. This is beyond normal protocol. Save the young.

I wonder if we can resurrect Goebbels et al....the gypsies and the jews...let's not treat those...

Sorry...but just where your argument takes us Ead

TOPPING

eadric said:

alex_ said:

eadric said:

tyson said:

@foxinsoxuk

The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....

You're probably right. In the end it will be a wash.

If I had to construct a plan B (given that my North Korean autarky won't work) then I would do this: I would say to any 70 year old (or older) who presents with coronavirus; "Sorry, we cannot treat you in a hospital, here is a load of antibiotics and heroin, go home and pray".

Let God decide. But mitigate the pain.

We risk overwhelming the health system with hundreds of thousands of oldsters who may or may not live, at the expense of younger people who still have a life to live and babies to breed. Triage needs to get a bit medieval.

Eh? The whole point is that younger people aren't dying from it in any sort of significant numbers! So you'd be clearing the hospitals of old people for... who?

Young people who have a life ahead of them.

Read that doctor from Italy. Young people are getting this. And badly.

If we are faced with a terrible choice (and it is terrible) we have to save the young and the future.

Finally twigged. This is a project of yours. Not sure to what end - a book? - but this is all too calculated and contrived.

This was a careless post of yours. Try to be a bit more careful in future if you want the thing to continue. Although goodness knows plenty of people on here are providing you with material.

alex_

Big_G_NorthWales said:

eadric said:

tyson said:

eadric said:

tyson said:

@foxinsoxuk

The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....

You're probably right. In the end it will be a wash.

If I had to construct a plan B (given that my North Korean autarky won't work) then I would do this: I would say to any 70 year old (or older) who presents with coronavirus; "Sorry, we cannot treat you in a hospital, here is a load of antibiotics and heroin, go home and pray".

Let God decide. But mitigate the pain.

We risk overwhelming the health system with hundreds of thousands of oldsters who may or may not live, at the expense of younger people who still have a life to live and babies to breed. Triage needs to get a bit medieval.

Comrade...why should a 70 year old or 80 year old pass over treatment in preference to a younger person???

Surely the clinical presentation takes priority--and on that basis the elderly and those with co-morbidity must be prioritised.....

No, that's wrong. This is beyond normal protocol. Save the young.

Just outrageous and you are so wrong.

It's late. eadric is back into this being Black Death mk III mode.

another_richard

Trumps' behaviour has been bizarre.

With weeks to plan his response all he had to do was claim that 'Chinese Coronovirus' was a deliberate Chinese attack on the world and that only he could 'Save America Again'.

edmundintokyo

what the fuck is going on

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1236778368533700609?s=19

tyson

Big_G_NorthWales said:

eadric said:

tyson said:

eadric said:

tyson said:

@foxinsoxuk

The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....

You're probably right. In the end it will be a wash.

If I had to construct a plan B (given that my North Korean autarky won't work) then I would do this: I would say to any 70 year old (or older) who presents with coronavirus; "Sorry, we cannot treat you in a hospital, here is a load of antibiotics and heroin, go home and pray".

Let God decide. But mitigate the pain.

We risk overwhelming the health system with hundreds of thousands of oldsters who may or may not live, at the expense of younger people who still have a life to live and babies to breed. Triage needs to get a bit medieval.

Comrade...why should a 70 year old or 80 year old pass over treatment in preference to a younger person???

Surely the clinical presentation takes priority--and on that basis the elderly and those with co-morbidity must be prioritised.....

No, that's wrong. This is beyond normal protocol. Save the young.

Just outrageous and you are so wrong.

I'm still sort of youngish.. and healthy...but this perspective by Ead is utter bolllocks

Big_G_NorthWales

tyson said:

eadric said:

tyson said:

eadric said:

tyson said:

@foxinsoxuk

The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....

You're probably right. In the end it will be a wash.

If I had to construct a plan B (given that my North Korean autarky won't work) then I would do this: I would say to any 70 year old (or older) who presents with coronavirus; "Sorry, we cannot treat you in a hospital, here is a load of antibiotics and heroin, go home and pray".

Let God decide. But mitigate the pain.

We risk overwhelming the health system with hundreds of thousands of oldsters who may or may not live, at the expense of younger people who still have a life to live and babies to breed. Triage needs to get a bit medieval.

Comrade...why should a 70 year old or 80 year old pass over treatment in preference to a younger person???

Surely the clinical presentation takes priority--and on that basis the elderly and those with co-morbidity must be prioritised.....

No, that's wrong. This is beyond normal protocol. Save the young.

I wonder if we can resurrect Goebbels et al....the gypsies and the jews...let's not treat those...

Sorry...but just where your argument takes us Ead

I cannot recall any poster with such obnoxious views on this crisis

I despair at the lack of empathy and selfishness

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1236785911616200704

Foxy

tyson said:

eadric said:

tyson said:

eadric said:

tyson said:

@foxinsoxuk

The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....

You're probably right. In the end it will be a wash.

If I had to construct a plan B (given that my North Korean autarky won't work) then I would do this: I would say to any 70 year old (or older) who presents with coronavirus; "Sorry, we cannot treat you in a hospital, here is a load of antibiotics and heroin, go home and pray".

Let God decide. But mitigate the pain.

We risk overwhelming the health system with hundreds of thousands of oldsters who may or may not live, at the expense of younger people who still have a life to live and babies to breed. Triage needs to get a bit medieval.

Comrade...why should a 70 year old or 80 year old pass over treatment in preference to a younger person???

Surely the clinical presentation takes priority--and on that basis the elderly and those with co-morbidity must be prioritised.....

No, that's wrong. This is beyond normal protocol. Save the young.

I wonder if we can resurrect Goebbels et al....the gypsies and the jews...let's not treat those...

Sorry...but just where your argument takes us Ead

I think the decision will be more nuanced, and will vary with the capacity of the ICU, but the clinicians there will have to decide who to treat on medical grounds. This is something they do on a regular basis.

another_richard

rottenborough said:

TGOHF666 said:

Crude oil $35 a barrel and falling - surely that helps Trump.

Isn't there a figure below which vast swathes of US fracking system becomes unviable and they are heavily in debt?

There's also a figure below which various Middle Eastern countries collapse.

FrancisUrquhart

Scott_xP said:

twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1236785911616200704

Its lucky nobody now cares about what the nutters in the Labour Party are doing.

Luckyguy1983

RobD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

RobD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

By the way, I do wonder if a hydrogen peroxide/distilled water protocol should be considered as a potential treatment for Coronavirus. I think this for two reasons. Firstly, hydrogen peroxide is extremely effective against all sorts of pathogens. Secondly because hydrogen peroxide releases masses of oxygen into the body, and Foxy told us this morning that low oxygen in the blood is a symptom of Coronavirus. The effect I note when using it is that it behaves like an internal version of hyperbaric oxygen therapy.

This is not medical advice, and I wouldn't have the ability to know how it could be administered safely and effectively. In a country like Iran, if health services are at breaking point, and hydrogen peroxide could be safely administered, it could prove to be a cheap and effective first line of defence.

Perhaps your disclaimer should have been at the front? Leave finding the treatment to the experts rather than speculating. Putting something like that out there is dangerous, as some people will be desperate to try any quackery.

You think someone is going to be convinced enough by my post to try a new medical approach on themselves but not to read to the end of the post? Ok then.

And I utterly disagree with the general tenor of your post. Our health is our own responsibility. Insofar as we depend on the medical profession for treatment, we should still understand fully how everything works so we can make informed choices.

People believe all sorts of things. And as for the tenor of my post, drinking god knows what in the hope it might prevent/cure a disease without any clinical trials or testing is just insane. Informed choices my arse.

Ludicrous straw man argument. Nobody is drinking 'God knows what'. Good luck with having zero understanding of how your body works and leaving it all to someone with a stethoscope - let me know how that goes for you.

Malmesbury

rottenborough said:

TGOHF666 said:

Crude oil $35 a barrel and falling - surely that helps Trump.

Isn't there a figure below which vast swathes of US fracking system becomes unviable and they are heavily in debt?

That's what the anti-fracking groups like to say - but when the Saudis tried to break the fracking operations by dropping the price, they adapted extremely well. In the end the Saudis backed off.

alex_

edmundintokyo said:

what the fuck is going on

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1236778368533700609?s=19

Trump's next predicted play. "We did everything we could, but this is uncontrollable. Man the lifeboats, every man for himself".

Or he's going to drop a bomb on someone.

Anabobazina

Even by Trumpton’s wacko standards the violin retweet is beyond bizarre

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1236786662111248385

Chameleon

tyson said:

eadric said:

tyson said:

eadric said:

tyson said:

@foxinsoxuk

The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....

You're probably right. In the end it will be a wash.

If I had to construct a plan B (given that my North Korean autarky won't work) then I would do this: I would say to any 70 year old (or older) who presents with coronavirus; "Sorry, we cannot treat you in a hospital, here is a load of antibiotics and heroin, go home and pray".

Let God decide. But mitigate the pain.

We risk overwhelming the health system with hundreds of thousands of oldsters who may or may not live, at the expense of younger people who still have a life to live and babies to breed. Triage needs to get a bit medieval.

Comrade...why should a 70 year old or 80 year old pass over treatment in preference to a younger person???

Surely the clinical presentation takes priority--and on that basis the elderly and those with co-morbidity must be prioritised.....

No, that's wrong. This is beyond normal protocol. Save the young.

I wonder if we can resurrect Goebbels et al....the gypsies and the jews...let's not treat those...

Sorry...but just where your argument takes us Ead

Triage will have to happen at some point. If you have two candidates for the last ECMO bed, both equally ill but one is 25, the other 65 there's no contest as to which should get the bed.

noneoftheabove

Thoughts on FTSE and DOW by Friday close? And low point this year?

Im thinking 5500/20000 by Friday hitting 5000/17000 as lows in late March/April

Thinking about when to get long, perhaps drip it in through the 5750 to 5000 range?

RobD

Luckyguy1983 said:

RobD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

RobD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

By the way, I do wonder if a hydrogen peroxide/distilled water protocol should be considered as a potential treatment for Coronavirus. I think this for two reasons. Firstly, hydrogen peroxide is extremely effective against all sorts of pathogens. Secondly because hydrogen peroxide releases masses of oxygen into the body, and Foxy told us this morning that low oxygen in the blood is a symptom of Coronavirus. The effect I note when using it is that it behaves like an internal version of hyperbaric oxygen therapy.

This is not medical advice, and I wouldn't have the ability to know how it could be administered safely and effectively. In a country like Iran, if health services are at breaking point, and hydrogen peroxide could be safely administered, it could prove to be a cheap and effective first line of defence.

Perhaps your disclaimer should have been at the front? Leave finding the treatment to the experts rather than speculating. Putting something like that out there is dangerous, as some people will be desperate to try any quackery.

You think someone is going to be convinced enough by my post to try a new medical approach on themselves but not to read to the end of the post? Ok then.

And I utterly disagree with the general tenor of your post. Our health is our own responsibility. Insofar as we depend on the medical profession for treatment, we should still understand fully how everything works so we can make informed choices.

People believe all sorts of things. And as for the tenor of my post, drinking god knows what in the hope it might prevent/cure a disease without any clinical trials or testing is just insane. Informed choices my arse.

Ludicrous straw man argument. Nobody is drinking 'God knows what'. Good luck with having zero understanding of how your body works and leaving it all to someone with a stethoscope - let me know how that goes for you.

And you do? Your repeated recommendation for drinking hydrogen peroxide, most lately as a supposed cure for the coronavirus, suggests otherwise.

rottenborough

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:

twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1236785911616200704

Its lucky nobody now cares about what the nutters in the Labour Party are doing.

I care what they are doing with the voting papers. Sounds mighty fishy to me.

alex_

Anabobazina said:

Even by Trumpton’s wacko standards the violin retweet is beyond bizarre

I don't think he gets the reference. I presume it's a fiddle...

kle4

alex_ said:

edmundintokyo said:

what the fuck is going on

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1236778368533700609?s=19

Trump's next predicted play. "We did everything we could, but this is uncontrollable. Man the lifeboats, every man for himself".

So it's Yes Minister's foreign policy path applied to a health issue?

1) Nothing is going to happen
2) Something is going to happen but we should do nothing about it
3) Maybe there's something we should do, but there's nothing we can do
4) Maybe there was something we could have done, but it's too late now.

noneoftheabove

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1236786662111248385

Is that graph not pretty meaningless without the context of what each country is doing in terms of testing?

FrancisUrquhart

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1236786662111248385

I don't really get that graph. China covered it up, so they were starting from a different stage. Korea have been testing like crazy, where as US haven't. Thus, I am not really sure what we can take from it.

TGOHF666

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:

twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1236785911616200704

Its lucky nobody now cares about what the nutters in the Labour Party are doing.

Read the text - Labour are terrified of those that point out the obvious about grooming gangs .

Big_G_NorthWales

eadric said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

eadric said:

alex_ said:

eadric said:

tyson said:

@foxinsoxuk

The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....

You're probably right. In the end it will be a wash.

If I had to construct a plan B (given that my North Korean autarky won't work) then I would do this: I would say to any 70 year old (or older) who presents with coronavirus; "Sorry, we cannot treat you in a hospital, here is a load of antibiotics and heroin, go home and pray".

Let God decide. But mitigate the pain.

We risk overwhelming the health system with hundreds of thousands of oldsters who may or may not live, at the expense of younger people who still have a life to live and babies to breed. Triage needs to get a bit medieval.

Eh? The whole point is that younger people aren't dying from it in any sort of significant numbers! So you'd be clearing the hospitals of old people for... who?

Young people who have a life ahead of them.

Read that doctor from Italy. Young people are getting this. And badly.

If we are faced with a terrible choice (and it is terrible) we have to save the young and the future.

You are simply disgusting and should be ashamed of yourself

All life is precious

You've had a rich life. You are lucky. If this is your time, I advise a tenbag of heroin, three large lines of coke, and two bottles of really good Macedonian red.

You really are losing it and in the process losing your credibility

You have no idea about my life and frankly are sounding as if you have lost it altogether

glw

alex_ said:

edmundintokyo said:

what the fuck is going on

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1236778368533700609?s=19

Trump's next predicted play. "We did everything we could, but this is uncontrollable. Man the lifeboats, every man for himself".

Or he's going to drop a bomb on someone.

We came close to Trump starting a war with Iran only a couple of months ago — perhaps only averted by some judiciously slow reporting of injuries — imagine that sort of conflict with a pandemic as the backdrop.

tyson

Chameleon said:

tyson said:

eadric said:

tyson said:

eadric said:

tyson said:

@foxinsoxuk

The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....

You're probably right. In the end it will be a wash.

If I had to construct a plan B (given that my North Korean autarky won't work) then I would do this: I would say to any 70 year old (or older) who presents with coronavirus; "Sorry, we cannot treat you in a hospital, here is a load of antibiotics and heroin, go home and pray".

Let God decide. But mitigate the pain.

We risk overwhelming the health system with hundreds of thousands of oldsters who may or may not live, at the expense of younger people who still have a life to live and babies to breed. Triage needs to get a bit medieval.

Comrade...why should a 70 year old or 80 year old pass over treatment in preference to a younger person???

Surely the clinical presentation takes priority--and on that basis the elderly and those with co-morbidity must be prioritised.....

No, that's wrong. This is beyond normal protocol. Save the young.

I wonder if we can resurrect Goebbels et al....the gypsies and the jews...let's not treat those...

Sorry...but just where your argument takes us Ead

Triage will have to happen at some point. If you have two candidates for the last ECMO bed, both equally ill but one is 25, the other 65 there's no contest as to which should get the bed.

The reality is that most people appearing critically ill will be older and admitted...

If this crisis forces us to lose our compassion to old people...then sadly it is a country that has lost its perspective.....

Anabobazina

RobD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

RobD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

RobD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

By the way, I do wonder if a hydrogen peroxide/distilled water protocol should be considered as a potential treatment for Coronavirus. I think this for two reasons. Firstly, hydrogen peroxide is extremely effective against all sorts of pathogens. Secondly because hydrogen peroxide releases masses of oxygen into the body, and Foxy told us this morning that low oxygen in the blood is a symptom of Coronavirus. The effect I note when using it is that it behaves like an internal version of hyperbaric oxygen therapy.

This is not medical advice, and I wouldn't have the ability to know how it could be administered safely and effectively. In a country like Iran, if health services are at breaking point, and hydrogen peroxide could be safely administered, it could prove to be a cheap and effective first line of defence.

Perhaps your disclaimer should have been at the front? Leave finding the treatment to the experts rather than speculating. Putting something like that out there is dangerous, as some people will be desperate to try any quackery.

You think someone is going to be convinced enough by my post to try a new medical approach on themselves but not to read to the end of the post? Ok then.

And I utterly disagree with the general tenor of your post. Our health is our own responsibility. Insofar as we depend on the medical profession for treatment, we should still understand fully how everything works so we can make informed choices.

People believe all sorts of things. And as for the tenor of my post, drinking god knows what in the hope it might prevent/cure a disease without any clinical trials or testing is just insane. Informed choices my arse.

Ludicrous straw man argument. Nobody is drinking 'God knows what'. Good luck with having zero understanding of how your body works and leaving it all to someone with a stethoscope - let me know how that goes for you.

And you do? Your repeated recommendation for drinking hydrogen peroxide, most lately as a supposed cure for the coronavirus, suggests otherwise.

He’s a crank, best ignored. This is the same guy who believes Jo Cox’s murder was a false flag operation.

Foxy

Rationing decisions will certainly be uncomfortable, which is all the more reason to do everything possible to avoid getting there. Those public health measures need to happen this week.

williamglenn

edmundintokyo said:

These numbers are way too high for Trump even *before* you price in a deadly pandemic that he's completely botched and a huge resulting economic shock.

Biden is popular. He has consistent head-to-head polling leads agains Trump, he has strong appeal with the demographics Hillary couldn't get (both black people and low-education white people), and he has strong appeal in the right places. He will probably win.

You have to factor in the chance he will catch coronavirus.

Big_G_NorthWales

tyson said:

Chameleon said:

tyson said:

eadric said:

tyson said:

eadric said:

tyson said:

@foxinsoxuk

The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....

You're probably right. In the end it will be a wash.

If I had to construct a plan B (given that my North Korean autarky won't work) then I would do this: I would say to any 70 year old (or older) who presents with coronavirus; "Sorry, we cannot treat you in a hospital, here is a load of antibiotics and heroin, go home and pray".

Let God decide. But mitigate the pain.

We risk overwhelming the health system with hundreds of thousands of oldsters who may or may not live, at the expense of younger people who still have a life to live and babies to breed. Triage needs to get a bit medieval.

Comrade...why should a 70 year old or 80 year old pass over treatment in preference to a younger person???

Surely the clinical presentation takes priority--and on that basis the elderly and those with co-morbidity must be prioritised.....

No, that's wrong. This is beyond normal protocol. Save the young.

I wonder if we can resurrect Goebbels et al....the gypsies and the jews...let's not treat those...

Sorry...but just where your argument takes us Ead

Triage will have to happen at some point. If you have two candidates for the last ECMO bed, both equally ill but one is 25, the other 65 there's no contest as to which should get the bed.

The reality is that most people appearing critically ill will be older and admitted...

If this crisis forces us to lose our compassion to old people...then sadly it is a country that has lost its perspective.....

Well said Tyson and fortunately there is only one or two on this forum who is guilty of losing it and compassion as well

IshmaelZ

edmundintokyo said:

what the fuck is going on

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1236778368533700609?s=19

I think "what's coming" is intended to be, victory over Biden. Just a failure to focus on the wider picture.

FrancisUrquhart

Foxy said:

Rationing decisions will certainly be uncomfortable, which is all the more reason to do everything possible to avoid getting there. Those public health measures need to happen this week.

I would have thought (I bloody hope) that if there was any fence sitting in regards to balancing economy vs restrictions, the news from Italy would tip the balance to faster and more aggressive action.

HYUFD

eadric said:

tyson said:

eadric said:

tyson said:

@foxinsoxuk

The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....

You're probably right. In the end it will be a wash.

If I had to construct a plan B (given that my North Korean autarky won't work) then I would do this: I would say to any 70 year old (or older) who presents with coronavirus; "Sorry, we cannot treat you in a hospital, here is a load of antibiotics and heroin, go home and pray".

Let God decide. But mitigate the pain.

We risk overwhelming the health system with hundreds of thousands of oldsters who may or may not live, at the expense of younger people who still have a life to live and babies to breed. Triage needs to get a bit medieval.

Comrade...why should a 70 year old or 80 year old pass over treatment in preference to a younger person???

Surely the clinical presentation takes priority--and on that basis the elderly and those with co-morbidity must be prioritised.....

No, that's wrong. This is beyond normal protocol. Save the young.

The young will largely be saved anyway, coronavirus has a 0.2% death rate for under 40s, barely different from normal flu but an 8% death rate for over 70s and a 15% death rate for over 80s

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-age-older-people-higher-risk-2020-2?r=US&IR=T

glw

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1236786662111248385

I don't really get that graph. China covered it up, so they were starting from a different stage. Korea have been testing like crazy, where as US haven't. Thus, I am not really sure what we can take from it.

I'm certainly no expert, but when I had a closer look I didn't think it was really comparing like with like. It's extremely difficult to make comparison unless you account for reporting differences, demographics, locale differences etc. I don't think there will be truly useful comparisons until after it is all over.

Chameleon

tyson said:

Chameleon said:

tyson said:

eadric said:

tyson said:

eadric said:

tyson said:

@foxinsoxuk

The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....

You're probably right. In the end it will be a wash.

If I had to construct a plan B (given that my North Korean autarky won't work) then I would do this: I would say to any 70 year old (or older) who presents with coronavirus; "Sorry, we cannot treat you in a hospital, here is a load of antibiotics and heroin, go home and pray".

Let God decide. But mitigate the pain.

We risk overwhelming the health system with hundreds of thousands of oldsters who may or may not live, at the expense of younger people who still have a life to live and babies to breed. Triage needs to get a bit medieval.

Comrade...why should a 70 year old or 80 year old pass over treatment in preference to a younger person???

Surely the clinical presentation takes priority--and on that basis the elderly and those with co-morbidity must be prioritised.....

No, that's wrong. This is beyond normal protocol. Save the young.

I wonder if we can resurrect Goebbels et al....the gypsies and the jews...let's not treat those...

Sorry...but just where your argument takes us Ead

Triage will have to happen at some point. If you have two candidates for the last ECMO bed, both equally ill but one is 25, the other 65 there's no contest as to which should get the bed.

The reality is that most people appearing critically ill will be older and admitted...

If this crisis forces us to lose our compassion to old people...then sadly it is a country that has lost its perspective.....

That's all very well, so are you advocating letting the 25 year old die to let the equally ill 65 year old survive, especially considering that with treatment the 25 year old should recover faster? They're hours away from having to make those calls in Italy.

In a pandemic situation such as the one we're about to face we need to (1) prioritise minimising loss of life, then (2) prioritise minimising loss of years.

tyson

noneoftheabove said:

Thoughts on FTSE and DOW by Friday close? And low point this year?

Im thinking 5500/20000 by Friday hitting 5000/17000 as lows in late March/April

Thinking about when to get long, perhaps drip it in through the 5750 to 5000 range?

We are in for a shellacking tomorrow morning......and then a topsy turvy week because no one really knows what the fuck is going on....

Endillion

edmundintokyo said:

These numbers are way too high for Trump even *before* you price in a deadly pandemic that he's completely botched and a huge resulting economic shock.

Biden is popular. He has consistent head-to-head polling leads agains Trump, he has strong appeal with the demographics Hillary couldn't get (both black people and low-education white people), and he has strong appeal in the right places. He will probably win.

There are only two black voters left in the US?

Blimey, Republican voter suppression is even further advanced that I thought.

In other news, I have a cold. Which I really hope is just a cold.

Luckyguy1983

RobD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

RobD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

RobD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

By the way, I do wonder if a hydrogen peroxide/distilled water protocol should be considered as a potential treatment for Coronavirus. I think this for two reasons. Firstly, hydrogen peroxide is extremely effective against all sorts of pathogens. Secondly because hydrogen peroxide releases masses of oxygen into the body, and Foxy told us this morning that low oxygen in the blood is a symptom of Coronavirus. The effect I note when using it is that it behaves like an internal version of hyperbaric oxygen therapy.

This is not medical advice, and I wouldn't have the ability to know how it could be administered safely and effectively. In a country like Iran, if health services are at breaking point, and hydrogen peroxide could be safely administered, it could prove to be a cheap and effective first line of defence.

Perhaps your disclaimer should have been at the front? Leave finding the treatment to the experts rather than speculating. Putting something like that out there is dangerous, as some people will be desperate to try any quackery.

You think someone is going to be convinced enough by my post to try a new medical approach on themselves but not to read to the end of the post? Ok then.

And I utterly disagree with the general tenor of your post. Our health is our own responsibility. Insofar as we depend on the medical profession for treatment, we should still understand fully how everything works so we can make informed choices.

People believe all sorts of things. And as for the tenor of my post, drinking god knows what in the hope it might prevent/cure a disease without any clinical trials or testing is just insane. Informed choices my arse.

Ludicrous straw man argument. Nobody is drinking 'God knows what'. Good luck with having zero understanding of how your body works and leaving it all to someone with a stethoscope - let me know how that goes for you.

And you do? Your repeated recommendation for drinking hydrogen peroxide, most lately as a supposed cure for the coronavirus, suggests otherwise.

I have mentioned it twice, in reference to what I myself do, never a recommendation, always with a dyor caveat. I have speculated, not supposed, that H2O2 may have a role to play in Coronavirus treatment - I've always found it puzzling when people attempt to misrepresent a statement when it's quoted in black and white?

Yes, I have a pretty good understanding of how my body works, and it could always be better, so I approach everything with an open and questioning mind. If you don't want to do the same, best of luck to you.

HYUFD

Chameleon said:

tyson said:

Chameleon said:

tyson said:

eadric said:

tyson said:

eadric said:

tyson said:

@foxinsoxuk

The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....

You're probably right. In the end it will be a wash.

If I had to construct a plan B (given that my North Korean autarky won't work) then I would do this: I would say to any 70 year old (or older) who presents with coronavirus; "Sorry, we cannot treat you in a hospital, here is a load of antibiotics and heroin, go home and pray".

Let God decide. But mitigate the pain.

We risk overwhelming the health system with hundreds of thousands of oldsters who may or may not live, at the expense of younger people who still have a life to live and babies to breed. Triage needs to get a bit medieval.

Comrade...why should a 70 year old or 80 year old pass over treatment in preference to a younger person???

Surely the clinical presentation takes priority--and on that basis the elderly and those with co-morbidity must be prioritised.....

No, that's wrong. This is beyond normal protocol. Save the young.

I wonder if we can resurrect Goebbels et al....the gypsies and the jews...let's not treat those...

Sorry...but just where your argument takes us Ead

Triage will have to happen at some point. If you have two candidates for the last ECMO bed, both equally ill but one is 25, the other 65 there's no contest as to which should get the bed.

The reality is that most people appearing critically ill will be older and admitted...

If this crisis forces us to lose our compassion to old people...then sadly it is a country that has lost its perspective.....

That's all very well, so are you advocating letting the 25 year old die to let the equally ill 65 year old survive, especially considering that with treatment the 25 year old should recover faster? They're hours away from having to make those calls in Italy.

The 25 year old will almost certainly survive at home with hot broth in bed anyway, the 65 year old however may need that hospital bed to survive