Of course. Although he's widely hated ("Wall Street Pete"), Buttigieg has been the real star of this nomination process. He's been more articulate than any other candidate, and better organised than any bar Sanders.
If Bloomberg hadn't interjected himself into the process, then I think Buttigieg would be vying with Biden for the role of moderate going into Super Tuesday.
He also, unlike many other candidates (cough, Amy Klobuchar, cough...) knows when to quit.
I think he ran eight years too early. He needed some senate experience first.
And he has an unpronounceable name.
Otherwise I agree.
It surely was too early, but its mega impressive he did so well despite being so early.
Basically says that White House wanted to calm markets, paint the whole thing as a third world problem, and knew it didn’t have the will to take the sorts of actions (cordoning off towns, closing facilities etc.) that other countries are taking when they find an outbreak,
Anyhow pre-markets are now going up.
VP Pence is in charge. The same Pence who refused to act against AIDS and who voted against President Bush's rescue package in the global financial crisis. If the US response is led by a man philosophically opposed to government action then what do you (or what does Trump) expect?
Yes. Thinking about the markets, I guess we can expect the next plunge when the US, and specifically its popular media, starts worrying about the crisis finally breaking back home.
At least it will put a stop to almost every American due to travel to Europe in the next four months posting questions on travel forums asking whether it is safe.
Yep.
I'm anticipating a bounce for a short time then another mahooosive crash or prolonged slide as the reality grips.
Except that it is still more likely than not that this becomes normalised as a more severe form of normal flu, and still may subside as the northern hemisphere warms, rather than hundred of thousands of bodies lying in the street as a certain PB’er delights in predicting.
The US question is whether its relative inactivity to date hides an Italian-style crisis somewhere along the west coast, remembering that isn’t that long since a Italy only had a few cases. Now that would send markets down.
There is a reasonable probability that it is well beyond the west coast by now.
For sure, there have been cases in the North East and Chicago also. But if there's a hidden Italian-style outbreak I'd have thought the odds are it'll be on the west coast.
With the way the US is handling it, it will be nationwide very soon after, unless they step up their game massively and immediately.
You might suggest that this is nothing new (and de facto that’s right) but one can see wider consequences and similar (if more limited) measures being enacted in more liberal jurisdictions.
Final £2.20 spent on Buttigieg. He's probably not going to succumb to Corona virus, hasn't had a recent heart attack and is compus mentis. At a contested convention it's not completely inconcievable he could come back...
The betting dream right now is that Biden wins the nom and he's forced to pull out with either Buttigieg or Harris (More likely) as the presidential candidate.
Both UK and US are up in the pre-markets. I think it'll take breaking bad news to turn today into a torrid market day.
Let’s hope a new season isn’t announced today then.
I'm looking forward to the new Better Call Saul season just released.
And a note for all the Buffet-like sages on here who sold out of their equity positions. Good trading call. But the fact remains that the market, and by that I mean funds looking to be invested, like equities. There are few other homes for them to go to.
If net net people get the out then in call right and frictional and tax costs are manageable then well done them.
But I would say it's not a sustainable investment strategy.
I've reversed my lay position of Trump for 2020 POTUS at a small loss. May still have been a smart bet but too many uncertainties make it feel far too random to predict the outcome.
Cementing the impression that he us actually a sensible politician. Takes some guts to pull out so close to super Tuesday even though he had so little chance now.
George Eustice may be known as George Useless among farmers, but he isn’t going to be sacked just for being dim and incompetent.
Johnson can’t afford to let people think government ministers should know what they’re doing or he will come under threat himself.
Unfair criticism of Mr Johnson who has been tirelessly working in his yellow housecoat at the Public Health England Laboratory in Colindale to win the fight against Covid 19.
turning up to his first meeting on the matter this morning?
He can't be working like a dog in Colindale and chairing Cobra meetings at the same time. I saw the picture, the camera never lies.
Cementing the impression that he us actually a sensible politician. Takes some guts to pull out so close to super Tuesday even though he had so little chance now.
Should help Biden and possibly Bloomberg.
Helps Biden because it potentially makes Bloomberg, Biden and Warren 15% viable in more states. Indiana was a much later state too - so no home state spoiler effect removal for Sanders.
Basically says that White House wanted to calm markets, paint the whole thing as a third world problem, and knew it didn’t have the will to take the sorts of actions (cordoning off towns, closing facilities etc.) that other countries are taking when they find an outbreak,
Anyhow pre-markets are now going up.
VP Pence is in charge. The same Pence who refused to act against AIDS and who voted against President Bush's rescue package in the global financial crisis. If the US response is led by a man philosophically opposed to government action then what do you (or what does Trump) expect?
Yes. Thinking about the markets, I guess we can expect the next plunge when the US, and specifically its popular media, starts worrying about the crisis finally breaking back home.
At least it will put a stop to almost every American due to travel to Europe in the next four months posting questions on travel forums asking whether it is safe.
My colleagues are already asking if they need to come.
I’ve also deliberately not scheduled my next US trip until end April
Bloomberg had horrific favorability numbers in the South Carolina exit poll, so this anecdote matches the data.
Here's Texas with and without Bloomberg
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1232822731730771968 - basically Biden could well beat Sanders in a straight up fight but Bloomberg's presence means he'll probably be short on delegates and thus need them from other candidates at the convention if Sanders is short. Basically Bloomberg is ratfucking the entire Dem nomination process with his $$$ to the benefit, ultimately of Donald Trump.
Both UK and US are up in the pre-markets. I think it'll take breaking bad news to turn today into a torrid market day.
Let’s hope a new season isn’t announced today then.
I'm looking forward to the new Better Call Saul season just released.
And a note for all the Buffet-like sages on here who sold out of their equity positions. Good trading call. But the fact remains that the market, and by that I mean funds looking to be invested, like equities. There are few other homes for them to go to.
If net net people get the out then in call right and frictional and tax costs are manageable then well done them.
But I would say it's not a sustainable investment strategy.
No, it was a bet, like any other discussed here. Last week paid off, but it gets more difficult from here.
Arms outstretched, Messiah-like and a confident 'it will be fantastic!' whilst holding a broom and wearing a stethoscope around his neck covers the flooding and Covid19 comfortably.
Final £2.20 spent on Buttigieg. He's probably not going to succumb to Corona virus, hasn't had a recent heart attack and is compus mentis. At a contested convention it's not completely inconcievable he could come back...
The betting dream right now is that Biden wins the nom and he's forced to pull out with either Buttigieg or Harris (More likely) as the presidential candidate.
One of my few unbacked lays of this process so no thank you.
Spitting feathers that I laid Biden yesterday at 3.8 rather than the delightful 3.15 today.
I fail to see any reason whatsoever the EU should be meddling in this.
This isn't a European issue its a global one. We shouldn't have the EU as some jumped up middleman, we should be coordinating our response locally in line with global coordination via the World Health Organisation whose job it literally is to coordinate that.
Any resources going to the EU for this should be going to the WHO. It makes no difference to us whether someone carrying an epidemic bug is travelling from Milan or Cairo or Berlin or Washington or Paris or Beijing.
So you know more than those who work in the NHS ? They wanted to remain in that . Do you seriously think the public will riot if the UK stayed in this . Would this not be proper Brexit!
It would make sense
But the EU not unless you accept free movement of people
Institutional overreach
The free movement of people wouldn't have been quite so bad were it not for our need based rather than contribution based welfare system.
Yes.
But our politicians chose not to address that. So the voters solved the problem another way.
I fail to see any reason whatsoever the EU should be meddling in this.
This isn't a European issue its a global one. We shouldn't have the EU as some jumped up middleman, we should be coordinating our response locally in line with global coordination via the World Health Organisation whose job it literally is to coordinate that.
Any resources going to the EU for this should be going to the WHO. It makes no difference to us whether someone carrying an epidemic bug is travelling from Milan or Cairo or Berlin or Washington or Paris or Beijing.
So you know more than those who work in the NHS ? They wanted to remain in that . Do you seriously think the public will riot if the UK stayed in this . Would this not be proper Brexit!
It would make sense
But the EU not unless you accept free movement of people
Institutional overreach
The free movement of people wouldn't have been quite so bad were it not for our need based rather than contribution based welfare system.
Philip: Judging by all your posts that I have read, you will never question anything that Johnson et al do. Where is your "red line"?
If that’s aimed at me, i don’t like or respect Johnson. I preferred Hunt. However, I have been positively surprised that he hadn’t collapsed the whole thing yet so I’m prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt. But I don’t have a “red line” as such.
And I’m bored of people who criticise every negotiating position that the UK takes while giving the EU a free pass
Final £2.20 spent on Buttigieg. He's probably not going to succumb to Corona virus, hasn't had a recent heart attack and is compus mentis. At a contested convention it's not completely inconcievable he could come back...
The betting dream right now is that Biden wins the nom and he's forced to pull out with either Buttigieg or Harris (More likely) as the presidential candidate.
One of my few unbacked lays of this process so no thank you.
Spitting feathers that I laid Biden yesterday at 3.8 rather than the delightful 3.15 today.
I'm in a mess for this market through seeing all the good arguments for laying the leading contenders without noticing that there doesn't seem to be anyone else in the running.
I fail to see any reason whatsoever the EU should be meddling in this.
This isn't a European issue its a global one. We shouldn't have the EU as some jumped up middleman, we should be coordinating our response locally in line with global coordination via the World Health Organisation whose job it literally is to coordinate that.
Any resources going to the EU for this should be going to the WHO. It makes no difference to us whether someone carrying an epidemic bug is travelling from Milan or Cairo or Berlin or Washington or Paris or Beijing.
So you know more than those who work in the NHS ? They wanted to remain in that . Do you seriously think the public will riot if the UK stayed in this . Would this not be proper Brexit!
It would make sense
But the EU not unless you accept free movement of people
Institutional overreach
The free movement of people wouldn't have been quite so bad were it not for our need based rather than contribution based welfare system.
Yes.
But our politicians chose not to address that. So the voters solved the problem another way.
Immigration was not causing the problems the UK is experiencing. Certainly not EU migrants who make a net contribution.
I’m so modest I didn’t even mention in the thread header the time I correctly tipped Amber Rudd as next out of the cabinet at 33/1 and backed Sajid Javed as her replacement at 33/1.
"2024! 2024!" Doesn't sound like Mayor Pete's supporters think the other candidates have a chance against Trump.
If Joe Kennedy III wins the Massachusetts Senate race this year he might have something to say about that, a Kennedy-Buttigieg ticket to take on VP Pence in 2024 though would be a great ticket, assuming Trump is re elected
I see the markets are up nearly 2.5% this morning but the pound is having a bad time
Meanwhile we have covid 19, floods, and a crisis on the Greek/ EU border and all Sky and Kay Burley can do with their early morning news is to diasappear to the US for the next four days to cover US politics
I understand this forum focuses on the US and it is a betting site, but if Sky think the vast majority of people going to work this morning have any interest in US politics then they only add to the narrative of an elite out of touch media
Mind you Burley in the morning (or at anytime) is hard to listen to anyway
Final £2.20 spent on Buttigieg. He's probably not going to succumb to Corona virus, hasn't had a recent heart attack and is compus mentis. At a contested convention it's not completely inconcievable he could come back...
The betting dream right now is that Biden wins the nom and he's forced to pull out with either Buttigieg or Harris (More likely) as the presidential candidate.
So goodbye to Buttigeig then, maybe we’ll see him in the future sometime.
Now down to six layable candidates on Betfair, still bizzarely including the two former First Ladies. Back prices on the six add to 93.8%, so there’s still an under-round.
R4 saying markets are rallying today on the back of co-ordinated "will take all actions necessary" statements from central banks around the world.
Haha. If only pandemics were so easy to control.
Dead cat springs to mind.
Perhaps - but there is an argument that the economic implications are overstated by the doom mongers.
If coronavirus proves controllable, then we could be back to normal within a matter of months; if not, we could also be back to some kind of normality within a matter of moths, as there will no longer be any point in massive lockdowns/quarantines.
And to put it brutally, most of the active workforce will be far less affected than the retired.
Central banks acting to prevent liquidity crises in a co-ordinated manner is simply common sense.
Both UK and US are up in the pre-markets. I think it'll take breaking bad news to turn today into a torrid market day.
Let’s hope a new season isn’t announced today then.
I'm looking forward to the new Better Call Saul season just released.
And a note for all the Buffet-like sages on here who sold out of their equity positions. Good trading call. But the fact remains that the market, and by that I mean funds looking to be invested, like equities. There are few other homes for them to go to.
If net net people get the out then in call right and frictional and tax costs are manageable then well done them.
But I would say it's not a sustainable investment strategy.
I should be ok as my investment strategy has a 10-20 year horizon to fund my daughter’s education.
It may just mean I can buy cheaper stocks for the next year or two.
So the USA, having conducted 472 tests has found 89 cases and has had two deaths. Meanwhile the UK has conducted 11,750 tests, found 35 and so far has had no deaths.
We need to be careful interpereting the nearly 12 000 tests in the UK, compared to other countries. AFAI understand, the UK have done lots of random background tests to see if there were undetected cases in the population before and soon after the first UK cases. Most other countries have only been testing suspected positives and people who might have been near actual positives.
This is great, and the US lack of testing is shameful, but we can't go thinking the much lower proportion of positive tests is directly comparable to other countries.
In other COVID-19 news, the numbrer of cases in Germany has doubled over the weekend with over 60 new cases. Nevermind, ... there have been no cases yet in eastern Germany,.... until this morning. the first case in Berlin has been announced, in the same "borough" as I live in! :Scream:
I see the markets are up nearly 2.5% this morning but the pound is having a bad time
Meanwhile we have covid 19, floods, and a crisis on the Greek/ EU border and all Sky and Kay Burley can do with their early morning news is to diasappear to the US for the next four days to cover US politics
I understand this forum focuses on the US and it is a betting site, but if Sky think the vast majority of people going to work this morning have any interest in US politics then they only add to the narrative of an elite out of touch media
Mind you Burley in the morning (or at anytime) is hard to listen to anyway
I've cashed in my GBP/CHF positions at a profit, as the flight to safety looks like being stemmed, temporarily, by the central bank announcements.
Both UK and US are up in the pre-markets. I think it'll take breaking bad news to turn today into a torrid market day.
Let’s hope a new season isn’t announced today then.
I'm looking forward to the new Better Call Saul season just released.
And a note for all the Buffet-like sages on here who sold out of their equity positions. Good trading call. But the fact remains that the market, and by that I mean funds looking to be invested, like equities. There are few other homes for them to go to.
If net net people get the out then in call right and frictional and tax costs are manageable then well done them.
But I would say it's not a sustainable investment strategy.
it doesn't have to be a strategy, just getting it right once is pretty bloody satisfying. The trick is not to think you can do it twice. No Ishmael Patient Capital on the horizon.
I still think we'll see ftse 5000 this year btw, but I'm not investing in this insight.
Of course. Although he's widely hated ("Wall Street Pete"), Buttigieg has been the real star of this nomination process. He's been more articulate than any other candidate, and better organised than any bar Sanders.
If Bloomberg hadn't interjected himself into the process, then I think Buttigieg would be vying with Biden for the role of moderate going into Super Tuesday.
He also, unlike many other candidates (cough, Amy Klobuchar, cough...) knows when to quit.
Final £2.20 spent on Buttigieg. He's probably not going to succumb to Corona virus, hasn't had a recent heart attack and is compus mentis. At a contested convention it's not completely inconcievable he could come back...
The betting dream right now is that Biden wins the nom and he's forced to pull out with either Buttigieg or Harris (More likely) as the presidential candidate.
Bloomberg had horrific favorability numbers in the South Carolina exit poll, so this anecdote matches the data.
Here's Texas with and without Bloomberg
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1232822731730771968 - basically Biden could well beat Sanders in a straight up fight but Bloomberg's presence means he'll probably be short on delegates and thus need them from other candidates at the convention if Sanders is short. Basically Bloomberg is ratfucking the entire Dem nomination process with his $$$ to the benefit, ultimately of Donald Trump.
R4 saying markets are rallying today on the back of co-ordinated "will take all actions necessary" statements from central banks around the world.
Haha. If only pandemics were so easy to control.
Dead cat springs to mind.
Perhaps - but there is an argument that the economic implications are overstated by the doom mongers.
If coronavirus proves controllable, then we could be back to normal within a matter of months; if not, we could also be back to some kind of normality within a matter of moths, as there will no longer be any point in massive lockdowns/quarantines.
And to put it brutally, most of the active workforce will be far less affected than the retired.
Central banks acting to prevent liquidity crises in a co-ordinated manner is simply common sense.
There is an argument but not one I would agree with.
But I am increasingly of the view the government is going to try a strategy of no lock down. But it might however get dragged into one because the consequences of its decision would be so severe. By then it would be too late to reap many of the benefits whilst it will still accrue all the costs. Probably the most important decision any government has made in a generation.
It's going to be a brutal few months. Let's hope it passes quickly. God bless all those working in health care.
If Bloomberg delegates ultimately go Biden and Warren delegates ultimately go Sanders then we might end up with a fairly close convention roll call on unbound delegate votes.
I’d still say Sanders would have the advantage as he has the more passionate campaign but it depends how the face-ups look in July.
Final £2.20 spent on Buttigieg. He's probably not going to succumb to Corona virus, hasn't had a recent heart attack and is compus mentis. At a contested convention it's not completely inconcievable he could come back...
The betting dream right now is that Biden wins the nom and he's forced to pull out with either Buttigieg or Harris (More likely) as the presidential candidate.
Apparently Boris Johnson thinks he will drive a "hard bargain" with the US over trade. What a fuckwit he is. It will be like Barry Mcguigan picking a fight with Tyson Fury.
Most people go for the obvious and usually have very low ambitions - it's more make a better live for themselves rather than change the world.
Moving on from that are the new startups that survive long enough to put their competitors out of business in saturated markets, before succumbing themselves and putting supplier businesses at risk too.
I suspect for every significant startup success there are many heartbreaks.
I see the markets are up nearly 2.5% this morning but the pound is having a bad time
Meanwhile we have covid 19, floods, and a crisis on the Greek/ EU border and all Sky and Kay Burley can do with their early morning news is to diasappear to the US for the next four days to cover US politics
I understand this forum focuses on the US and it is a betting site, but if Sky think the vast majority of people going to work this morning have any interest in US politics then they only add to the narrative of an elite out of touch media
Mind you Burley in the morning (or at anytime) is hard to listen to anyway
The disease is getting worse. Now reporting on another country (which happens to be the pre-eminent economic power and a key ally) is an elitist activity?
Do patriotic Brexiteers only report on news that occurs inside the British isles?
Most people go for the obvious and usually have very low ambitions - it's more make a better live for themselves rather than change the world.
Started a business with four other people. Grew it from nothing to a valuation of over £90 million, while building a workforce of over 100 and paying millions in Corporation Tax, as well as paying salaries well above the minimum wage. Now one half of a company with an annual turnover of £50 million, offices in London, Washigton DC and Hong Kong, and a head count approaching 400.
Comments
You might suggest that this is nothing new (and de facto that’s right) but one can see wider consequences and similar (if more limited) measures being enacted in more liberal jurisdictions.
The betting dream right now is that Biden wins the nom and he's forced to pull out with either Buttigieg or Harris (More likely) as the presidential candidate.
And a note for all the Buffet-like sages on here who sold out of their equity positions. Good trading call. But the fact remains that the market, and by that I mean funds looking to be invested, like equities. There are few other homes for them to go to.
If net net people get the out then in call right and frictional and tax costs are manageable then well done them.
But I would say it's not a sustainable investment strategy.
Indiana was a much later state too - so no home state spoiler effect removal for Sanders.
I’ve also deliberately not scheduled my next US trip until end April
Although I am not a really old narcissistic billionaire. Obviously.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8062717/Churchgoers-Selma-turned-backs-Bloomberg-spoke-Bloody-Sunday-commemoration.html
Bloomberg had horrific favorability numbers in the South Carolina exit poll, so this anecdote matches the data.
Here's Texas with and without Bloomberg
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1232822731730771968 - basically Biden could well beat Sanders in a straight up fight but Bloomberg's presence means he'll probably be short on delegates and thus need them from other candidates at the convention if Sanders is short.
Basically Bloomberg is ratfucking the entire Dem nomination process with his $$$ to the benefit, ultimately of Donald Trump.
The more intriguing question will be if he gets up to change nappies. Or is he a Jacob Rees Mogg?
https://twitter.com/Nightingale_P/status/1234194703681282048
Most people go for the obvious and usually have very low ambitions - it's more make a better live for themselves rather than change the world.
Spitting feathers that I laid Biden yesterday at 3.8 rather than the delightful 3.15 today.
But our politicians chose not to address that. So the voters solved the problem another way.
And I’m bored of people who criticise every negotiating position that the UK takes while giving the EU a free pass
Some job where he can pontificate and not have to do much - senator, governor during an economic upswing - sounds perfect for him.
Dead cat springs to mind.
I see the markets are up nearly 2.5% this morning but the pound is having a bad time
Meanwhile we have covid 19, floods, and a crisis on the Greek/ EU border and all Sky and Kay Burley can do with their early morning news is to diasappear to the US for the next four days to cover US politics
I understand this forum focuses on the US and it is a betting site, but if Sky think the vast majority of people going to work this morning have any interest in US politics then they only add to the narrative of an elite out of touch media
Mind you Burley in the morning (or at anytime) is hard to listen to anyway
I’ve still got Warren fantasies.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=gl99R6FM5s8
Now down to six layable candidates on Betfair, still bizzarely including the two former First Ladies. Back prices on the six add to 93.8%, so there’s still an under-round.
If coronavirus proves controllable, then we could be back to normal within a matter of months; if not, we could also be back to some kind of normality within a matter of moths, as there will no longer be any point in massive lockdowns/quarantines.
And to put it brutally, most of the active workforce will be far less affected than the retired.
Central banks acting to prevent liquidity crises in a co-ordinated manner is simply common sense.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=hJXc8JRB-HA
It may just mean I can buy cheaper stocks for the next year or two.
AFAI understand, the UK have done lots of random background tests to see if there were undetected cases in the population before and soon after the first UK cases. Most other countries have only been testing suspected positives and people who might have been near actual positives.
This is great, and the US lack of testing is shameful, but we can't go thinking the much lower proportion of positive tests is directly comparable to other countries.
In other COVID-19 news, the numbrer of cases in Germany has doubled over the weekend with over 60 new cases. Nevermind, ... there have been no cases yet in eastern Germany,.... until this morning. the first case in Berlin has been announced, in the same "borough" as I live in! :Scream:
I still think we'll see ftse 5000 this year btw, but I'm not investing in this insight.
https://twitter.com/Billbrowder/status/1234204385485479943?s=19
#fuckoffbloomberg
"We understand that children acting like adults can make adults act like children."
Nah, me neither.....
But I am increasingly of the view the government is going to try a strategy of no lock down. But it might however get dragged into one because the consequences of its decision would be so severe. By then it would be too late to reap many of the benefits whilst it will still accrue all the costs. Probably the most important decision any government has made in a generation.
It's going to be a brutal few months. Let's hope it passes quickly. God bless all those working in health care.
I’d still say Sanders would have the advantage as he has the more passionate campaign but it depends how the face-ups look in July.
I suspect for every significant startup success there are many heartbreaks.
NEW THREAD
Do patriotic Brexiteers only report on news that occurs inside the British isles?
Anyway his support is splitting evenly amongst the remaining candidates, which should help Biden get above 15% in California and other states.
https://mobile.twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1234288655067418624