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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And so to South Carolina where anything other than a big Biden

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,768

    HYUFD said:

    Biden currently leading in South Carolina with 70% of the vote, Steyer second with 12% and Sanders third with 10% with less than 1% in
    https://www.nytimes.com

    Go Biden.

    Will this be enough to persuade the powers-that-be to 'have a word' with other moderates?
    I should add that I think Buttigieg should be the nominee, but it seems Dems are not ready for a whole new generation.

    His time will come.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    edited March 2020
    I haven't checked the polls but I assume this result for Biden means he'll be hoping to win on Tuesday in other southern states like Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597

    Looking dismal for Warren. Surely time's up?

    Is she ahead anywhere apart from Mass?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,768
    Andy_JS said:

    I haven't checked the polls but I assume this result for Biden means he'll be hoping to win on Tuesday in other southern states like Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

    Yep. That is the strategy. Southern wall. Not sure about Texas.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,768
    dodrade said:

    Looking dismal for Warren. Surely time's up?

    Is she ahead anywhere apart from Mass?
    Last I read she is panicking about her home state.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,120
    Will there even be a GE if the US has to go into lock down because of coronavirus?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,768
    5 precincts - Buttigieg is second.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,768

    Will there even be a GE if the US has to go into lock down because of coronavirus?

    The billion dollar question.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Will there even be a GE if the US has to go into lock down because of coronavirus?

    Almost definitely, you'd need GOP and Dem to agree to cancel it.

    A more relevant question is whether Trump will allow Dem voters to leave their houses and vote in it...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,622
    tyson said:

    Andy_JS said:

    eadric said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    In this thread, HYUFD will be arguing that falling off a roof never kills anyone. It is the secondary effect of hitting the pavement that is fatal.

    And that is correct, if you fall off a roof onto a net you survive, if you fall off a roof and hit the pavement from 100 feet you die
    You are an idiot.

    COVID19 is a primary viral pneumonitis/pneumonia. It kills by asphyxiation, hence the need for oxygen and multi system life support in 10% of cases.

    By all means sit it out with paracetamol and chicken soup yourself, but do not discourage others from seeking appropriate life saving interventions.
    HYUFD isn't an idiot. He's absolutely right that panic is the biggest potential problem re coronavirus.
    No, the biggest potential problem with coronavirus is coronavirus. Don't Panickers like you are making it worse, by enabling governments not to enact the stringent quarantines we sadly need.

    This is not a rehearsal. The "fear mongering" epidemiologists' predictions have proven to be accurate, even as the plague grows. We can no longer ignore their warnings. And their advice is that we need to self isolate, etc, and cancel mass gatherings, close schools, and so on.

    If we want to get through intact as a society it looks like that's what we've got to do.
    Point taken. What we really need to know is whether the virus is killing people with no pre-existing serious health conditions.
    30-40% of Italians in the north have been admitted to hospital- it has completely overloaded the Chinese health system...this isn't panic...these are people who need acute treatments
    Have you got any backup for your claim that 30-40% of Italians in the north have been admitted to hospital ?

    Given the population of northern Italy is over 25 million that doesn't seem likely to me.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148

    Andy_JS said:

    I haven't checked the polls but I assume this result for Biden means he'll be hoping to win on Tuesday in other southern states like Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

    Yep. That is the strategy. Southern wall. Not sure about Texas.
    One thing this seems to suggest is that Trump would trounce Sanders in the South, maybe even adding Virginia to his tally.

    The North East and West (especially the West coast) seem to be leaning Sanders though and the Midwest will again decide the election
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    In this thread, HYUFD will be arguing that falling off a roof never kills anyone. It is the secondary effect of hitting the pavement that is fatal.

    And that is correct, if you fall off a roof onto a net you survive, if you fall off a roof and hit the pavement from 100 feet you die
    You are an idiot.

    COVID19 is a primary viral pneumonitis/pneumonia. It kills by asphyxiation, hence the need for oxygen and multi system life support in 10% of cases.

    By all means sit it out with paracetamol and chicken soup yourself, but do not discourage others from seeking appropriate life saving interventions.
    HYUFD isn't an idiot. He's absolutely right that panic is the biggest potential problem re coronavirus.
    If you have an acute respiratory illness your best chance of survival will be being treated in hospital.....

    Your ignorance on this matter is reckless, ignorant and dangerous....
    99.5% of those under 50 will survive coronavirus without hospital treatment.

    Your panic demands that everyone who gets it should go to hospital is the reckless, ignorant and dangerous advice that will hamper efforts to treat those who do need hospital treatment
    Do you not think hospitals triage those who need to be admitted??....honestly your absolute ignorance on this matter is shocking, yet you choose just to plough on ignorantly and shamelessly....

    I hope this disease is contained....but if it's not we need to ensure that our health system saves people's lives..even if they have conditions or are elderly....it doesn't matter..a life is a life
    How much time and resources are they going to have to spend filtering out those who do not need to be admitted if everyone with coronavirus goes to hospital?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited March 2020


    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    In this thread, HYUFD will be arguing that falling off a roof never kills anyone. It is the secondary effect of hitting the pavement that is fatal.

    And that is correct, if you fall off a roof onto a net you survive, if you fall off a roof and hit the pavement from 100 feet you die
    You are an idiot.

    COVID19 is a primary viral pneumonitis/pneumonia. It kills by asphyxiation, hence the need for oxygen and multi system life support in 10% of cases.

    By all means sit it out with paracetamol and chicken soup yourself, but do not discourage others from seeking appropriate life saving interventions.
    HYUFD isn't an idiot. He's absolutely right that panic is the biggest potential problem re coronavirus.
    No, the biggest potential problem with coronavirus is coronavirus. Don't Panickers like you are making it worse, by enabling governments not to enact the stringent quarantines we sadly need.

    This is not a rehearsal. The "fear mongering" epidemiologists' predictions have proven to be accurate, even as the plague grows. We can no longer ignore their warnings. And their advice is that we need to self isolate, etc, and cancel mass gatherings, close schools, and so on.

    If we want to get through intact as a society it looks like that's what we've got to do.
    Fine, self isolate with broth, just do not deluge your GP and hospital just because you have a bad cough
    Do you have investments in Hot Broth, Inc?
    As you said earlier, invest in soup companies like Campbells, they will be one of the few winners from coronavirus
    You know that soup isn't actually an anti-viral right?
    There is no cure for coronavirus, hot soup just helps ride it out
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,120
    edited March 2020
    For the hand egg fans...christ alive...must have been in a growth bag as a kid.

    And then there is big-man speed like Louisville tackle Mekhi Becton flashed Friday night. Becton, who is the biggest player at this year's combine having checked in at 6-foot-7⅜ and 364 pounds, put up an official 5.10 clocking in the 40-yard dash.

    https://www.espn.co.uk/nfl/story/_/id/28802975/ot-mekhi-becton-364-pounds-posts-510-40-yard-dash
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148

    Will there even be a GE if the US has to go into lock down because of coronavirus?

    Trump could declare martial law I suppose
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,768

    Will there even be a GE if the US has to go into lock down because of coronavirus?

    Almost definitely, you'd need GOP and Dem to agree to cancel it.

    A more relevant question is whether Trump will allow Dem voters to leave their houses and vote in it...
    An answer on Quora:

    There is no circumstance whatosever in the Constitution that allows a president to postpone elections for any reason. The fact that some emergency powers are stated (suspension of habeous corpus in case of a rebellion) only makes it harder to postpone elections, because postponement of elections is not mentioned even under emergency powers.

    All of which is good news. And there are other reasons:

    This is one of those cases in which “federalism” is probably helpful. Elections are run exclusively at the state and local level, and the Electoral College (despite being such a horrible institution in so many ways), reinforces this. The bottom line is, no election official in the country reports to the President of the United States… The president would need to have all 50 governors and their Secretaries of State in his pocket.
    A president who even tried to postpone elections would likely be very quickly impeached… even if the Congress was of the same party.
    All these facts help explain why Lindoln never seriously considered postponing the election of 1864, even though six months out, it looked liley he was going to lose!
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    eadric said:

    tyson said:

    Andy_JS said:

    eadric said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    In this thread, HYUFD will be arguing that falling off a roof never kills anyone. It is the secondary effect of hitting the pavement that is fatal.

    And that is correct, if you fall off a roof onto a net you survive, if you fall off a roof and hit the pavement from 100 feet you die
    You are an idiot.

    COVID19 is a primary viral pneumonitis/pneumonia. It kills by asphyxiation, hence the need for oxygen and multi system life support in 10% of cases.

    By all means sit it out with paracetamol and chicken soup yourself, but do not discourage others from seeking appropriate life saving interventions.
    HYUFD isn't an idiot. He's absolutely right that panic is the biggest potential problem re coronavirus.
    No, the biggest potential problem with coronavirus is coronavirus. Don't Panickers like you are making it worse, by enabling governments not to enact the stringent quarantines we sadly need.

    This is not a rehearsal. The "fear mongering" epidemiologists' predictions have proven to be accurate, even as the plague grows. We can no longer ignore their warnings. And their advice is that we need to self isolate, etc, and cancel mass gatherings, close schools, and so on.

    If we want to get through intact as a society it looks like that's what we've got to do.
    Point taken. What we really need to know is whether the virus is killing people with no pre-existing serious health conditions.
    30-40% of Italians in the north have been admitted to hospital- it has completely overloaded the Chinese health system...this isn't panic...these are people who need acute treatments
    Have you got any backup for your claim that 30-40% of Italians in the north have been admitted to hospital ?

    Given the population of northern Italy is over 25 million that doesn't seem likely to me.
    I'm fairly sure tyson means 30-40% of INFECTED Italians need hospital treatment.

    Not a proportion of the entire nation.

    He is right to highlight this, even if he made an error. The Italian strain of the disease seems to be more malignant than the Chinese. Who knows if this because of mutation, or because the Italians are generally older?
    It's because Italians talk with their hands. :smiley:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,120
    edited March 2020

    Will there even be a GE if the US has to go into lock down because of coronavirus?

    Almost definitely, you'd need GOP and Dem to agree to cancel it.

    A more relevant question is whether Trump will allow Dem voters to leave their houses and vote in it...
    An answer on Quora:

    There is no circumstance whatosever in the Constitution that allows a president to postpone elections for any reason. The fact that some emergency powers are stated (suspension of habeous corpus in case of a rebellion) only makes it harder to postpone elections, because postponement of elections is not mentioned even under emergency powers.

    All of which is good news. And there are other reasons:

    This is one of those cases in which “federalism” is probably helpful. Elections are run exclusively at the state and local level, and the Electoral College (despite being such a horrible institution in so many ways), reinforces this. The bottom line is, no election official in the country reports to the President of the United States… The president would need to have all 50 governors and their Secretaries of State in his pocket.
    A president who even tried to postpone elections would likely be very quickly impeached… even if the Congress was of the same party.
    All these facts help explain why Lindoln never seriously considered postponing the election of 1864, even though six months out, it looked liley he was going to lose!
    Lets just imagine for a second, absolute worst case scenario and the US is forced into a Chinese style lockdown, how can you run a GE?

    I would presume if it wasn't Trump, both parties would probably agree to some sort of temporary suspension. But given how divisive he is and untrusted to stick to his word, I doubt they would.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I haven't checked the polls but I assume this result for Biden means he'll be hoping to win on Tuesday in other southern states like Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

    Yep. That is the strategy. Southern wall. Not sure about Texas.
    One thing this seems to suggest is that Trump would trounce Sanders in the South, maybe even adding Virginia to his tally.

    The North East and West (especially the West coast) seem to be leaning Sanders though and the Midwest will again decide the election
    Surely the point is to pick the candidate who will win the swing states, not one who will lose by slightly less in safe Republican ones?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,622
    edited March 2020
    Though if it was only Biden vs Sanders then it might be an 80-20 or 70-30 split.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    A president who even tried to postpone elections would likely be very quickly impeached… even if the Congress was of the same party.

    That's so cute...

    But like I say I can't see Trump unconstitutionally trying to postpone the election, when that seems procedurally and practically harder than using the crisis to rig it, Frank-Underwood-style.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,622
    eadric said:

    tyson said:

    Andy_JS said:

    eadric said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    In this thread, HYUFD will be arguing that falling off a roof never kills anyone. It is the secondary effect of hitting the pavement that is fatal.

    And that is correct, if you fall off a roof onto a net you survive, if you fall off a roof and hit the pavement from 100 feet you die
    You are an idiot.

    COVID19 is a primary viral pneumonitis/pneumonia. It kills by asphyxiation, hence the need for oxygen and multi system life support in 10% of cases.

    By all means sit it out with paracetamol and chicken soup yourself, but do not discourage others from seeking appropriate life saving interventions.
    HYUFD isn't an idiot. He's absolutely right that panic is the biggest potential problem re coronavirus.
    No, the biggest potential problem with coronavirus is coronavirus. Don't Panickers like you are making it worse, by enabling governments not to enact the stringent quarantines we sadly need.

    This is not a rehearsal. The "fear mongering" epidemiologists' predictions have proven to be accurate, even as the plague grows. We can no longer ignore their warnings. And their advice is that we need to self isolate, etc, and cancel mass gatherings, close schools, and so on.

    If we want to get through intact as a society it looks like that's what we've got to do.
    Point taken. What we really need to know is whether the virus is killing people with no pre-existing serious health conditions.
    30-40% of Italians in the north have been admitted to hospital- it has completely overloaded the Chinese health system...this isn't panic...these are people who need acute treatments
    Have you got any backup for your claim that 30-40% of Italians in the north have been admitted to hospital ?

    Given the population of northern Italy is over 25 million that doesn't seem likely to me.
    I'm fairly sure tyson means 30-40% of INFECTED Italians need hospital treatment.

    Not a proportion of the entire nation.

    He is right to highlight this, even if he made an error. The Italian strain of the disease seems to be more malignant than the Chinese. Who knows if this because of mutation, or because the Italians are generally older?
    And what you mean is a 30-40% of people KNOWN to be infected.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,768
    Thomas Kaplan, in Charlotte, N.C. 6m ago

    Biden’s win — especially if it’s a commanding one — is certainly not good news for Bloomberg, who will speak soon at a Democratic Party dinner here.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,768
    Nick Corasaniti, in Portland, Maine Just now

    The Biden campaign said they’ve just had their best fund-raising hour ever.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Nick Corasaniti, in Portland, Maine Just now

    The Biden campaign said they’ve just had their best fund-raising hour ever.

    They claim to have raised $1 million a day for the last week.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,120

    Paging HYUFD...

    twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1233864458411184128

    Quite scary that Luntz is so ill informed. Imagine what little the normal members of the US public know...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,768
    eadric said:
    "Are there any extra symptoms that make it more dangerous than that?"

    Just the dying bit.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    dodrade said:

    Looking dismal for Warren. Surely time's up?

    Is she ahead anywhere apart from Mass?
    Recent polls put Bernie ahead in Massachusetts.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,622

    eadric said:
    "Are there any extra symptoms that make it more dangerous than that?"

    Just the dying bit.
    People die of flu.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,768

    Paging HYUFD...

    twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1233864458411184128

    Quite scary that Luntz is so ill informed. Imagine what little the normal members of the US public know...
    God's retribution is upon us.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited March 2020

    eadric said:
    "Are there any extra symptoms that make it more dangerous than that?"

    Just the dying bit.
    People die from the regular flu too. Thousands in the UK annually.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,120
    Perhaps Bloomberg could use all his wasted tv ads buys to instead do the US a service and run PSA ads about coronavirus instead.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,768
    Tim_B said:

    Nick Corasaniti, in Portland, Maine Just now

    The Biden campaign said they’ve just had their best fund-raising hour ever.

    They claim to have raised $1 million a day for the last week.
    I am perplexed as to why Biden is short of money. Where else is it going> Mayor Pete - yeh obviously a bit, but after that?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,120
    edited March 2020

    Tim_B said:

    Nick Corasaniti, in Portland, Maine Just now

    The Biden campaign said they’ve just had their best fund-raising hour ever.

    They claim to have raised $1 million a day for the last week.
    I am perplexed as to why Biden is short of money. Where else is it going> Mayor Pete - yeh obviously a bit, but after that?
    If you were a rich Democrat and have seen Biden's performances so far would you have been quick to write a big cheque? I know its a tax write-off and all that, but it definitely feels like lighting money on fire.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    dodrade said:



    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I haven't checked the polls but I assume this result for Biden means he'll be hoping to win on Tuesday in other southern states like Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

    Yep. That is the strategy. Southern wall. Not sure about Texas.
    One thing this seems to suggest is that Trump would trounce Sanders in the South, maybe even adding Virginia to his tally.

    The North East and West (especially the West coast) seem to be leaning Sanders though and the Midwest will again decide the election
    Surely the point is to pick the candidate who will win the swing states, not one who will lose by slightly less in safe Republican ones?
    Florida, North Carolina and Virginia are all southern swing states that voted for Obama
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    eadric said:

    Will there even be a GE if the US has to go into lock down because of coronavirus?

    Almost definitely, you'd need GOP and Dem to agree to cancel it.

    A more relevant question is whether Trump will allow Dem voters to leave their houses and vote in it...
    An answer on Quora:

    There is no circumstance whatosever in the Constitution that allows a president to postpone elections for any reason. The fact that some emergency powers are stated (suspension of habeous corpus in case of a rebellion) only makes it harder to postpone elections, because postponement of elections is not mentioned even under emergency powers.

    All of which is good news. And there are other reasons:

    This is one of those cases in which “federalism” is probably helpful. Elections are run exclusively at the state and local level, and the Electoral College (despite being such a horrible institution in so many ways), reinforces this. The bottom line is, no election official in the country reports to the President of the United States… The president would need to have all 50 governors and their Secretaries of State in his pocket.
    A president who even tried to postpone elections would likely be very quickly impeached… even if the Congress was of the same party.
    All these facts help explain why Lindoln never seriously considered postponing the election of 1864, even though six months out, it looked liley he was going to lose!
    Lets just imagine for a second, absolute worst case scenario and the US is forced into a Chinese style lockdown, how can you run a GE?

    I would presume if it wasn't Trump, both parties would probably agree to some sort of temporary suspension. But given how divisive he is and untrusted to stick to his word, I doubt they would.
    The amazing thing is, this is not the ABSOLUTE worst case scenario. this is the REASONABLE worst case scenario (with which I think we all have to deal, so we can make an opinion on the best course ahead).

    The REASONABLE worst case scenario for the UK is tens or hundreds of thousands of dead and critically ill, and a health service that barely survives.

    The WORST case is, probably, partial or even total break down of society and civilisation. That is where we are.

    By nature, worst case, either reasonable or extreme, is unlikely. But increasingly plausible.
    Civilisation did not break down even after Spanish flu which had a death rate 10 times higher than coronavirus
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,120
    HYUFD said:

    twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1233916595392712704?s=20

    Is Bloomberg not even standing?
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 757
    HYUFD said:


    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    In this thread, HYUFD will be arguing that falling off a roof never kills anyone. It is the secondary effect of hitting the pavement that is fatal.

    And that is correct, if you fall off a roof onto a net you survive, if you fall off a roof and hit the pavement from 100 feet you die
    You are an idiot.

    COVID19 is a primary viral pneumonitis/pneumonia. It kills by asphyxiation, hence the need for oxygen and multi system life support in 10% of cases.

    By all means sit it out with paracetamol and chicken soup yourself, but do not discourage others from seeking appropriate life saving interventions.
    HYUFD isn't an idiot. He's absolutely right that panic is the biggest potential problem re coronavirus.
    No, the biggest potential problem with coronavirus is coronavirus. Don't Panickers like you are making it worse, by enabling governments not to enact the stringent quarantines we sadly need.

    This is not a rehearsal. The "fear mongering" epidemiologists' predictions have proven to be accurate, even as the plague grows. We can no longer ignore their warnings. And their advice is that we need to self isolate, etc, and cancel mass gatherings, close schools, and so on.

    If we want to get through intact as a society it looks like that's what we've got to do.
    Fine, self isolate with broth, just do not deluge your GP and hospital just because you have a bad cough
    Do you have investments in Hot Broth, Inc?
    As you said earlier, invest in soup companies like Campbells, they will be one of the few winners from coronavirus
    You know that soup isn't actually an anti-viral right?
    There is no cure for coronavirus, hot soup just helps ride it out
    Isn't it soup that caused it in the first place?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,120
    Britbox has 300k subscribers in the US...not in the game.

    Disney is expected to get off to the same roaring start in Europe as its Mandalorian-fuelled launch in the US last year. The company hit 10 million sign-ups on day one and 26.5 million after three months– a number that Netflix took five years to reach.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/mar/01/disney-plus-coming-soon-to-uk-galaxy-netflix-challenge
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,768
    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    Will there even be a GE if the US has to go into lock down because of coronavirus?

    Almost definitely, you'd need GOP and Dem to agree to cancel it.

    A more relevant question is whether Trump will allow Dem voters to leave their houses and vote in it...
    An answer on Quora:

    There is no circumstance whatosever in the Constitution that allows a president to postpone elections for any reason. The fact that some emergency powers are stated (suspension of habeous corpus in case of a rebellion) only makes it harder to postpone elections, because postponement of elections is not mentioned even under emergency powers.

    All of which is good news. And there are other reasons:

    snip
    A president who even tried to postpone elections would likely be very quickly impeached… even if the Congress was of the same party.
    All these facts help explain why Lindoln never seriously considered postponing the election of 1864, even though six months out, it looked liley he was going to lose!
    Lets just imagine for a second, absolute worst case scenario and the US is forced into a Chinese style lockdown, how can you run a GE?

    I would presume if it wasn't Trump, both parties would probably agree to some sort of temporary suspension. But given how divisive he is and untrusted to stick to his word, I doubt they would.
    The amazing thing is, this is not the ABSOLUTE worst case scenario. this is the REASONABLE worst case scenario (with which I think we all have to deal, so we can make an opinion on the best course ahead).

    The REASONABLE worst case scenario for the UK is tens or hundreds of thousands of dead and critically ill, and a health service that barely survives.

    The WORST case is, probably, partial or even total break down of society and civilisation. That is where we are.

    By nature, worst case, either reasonable or extreme, is unlikely. But increasingly plausible.
    Civilisation did not break down even after Spanish flu which had a death rate 10 times higher than coronavirus
    A point worth debating. But that was then. A world in which expectations were very different to today. Vast numbers died in India iirc, in a country that was still mainly subsistent farming.

    Today, people have a meltdown if their Virgin Internet is down for a day.

  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    And if there's no ICU beds available, that 2% triples.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,120


    A point worth debating. But that was then. A world in which expectations were very different to today. Vast numbers died in India iirc, in a country that was still mainly subsistent farming.

    Today, people have a meltdown if their Virgin Internet is down for a day.

    Also news travelled very slowly and could be "managed" by the authorities. Now with social media, it does the opposite and easy to causes instant panic.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,210
    Sanders numbers improving now, over that crucial 15%
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,768
    Biden on 70% in some counties (early results).

    Enjoy this Joe.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,768
    Pulpstar said:

    Sanders numbers improving now, over that crucial 15%

    Just.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,768
    Chameleon said:

    And if there's no ICU beds available, that 2% triples.
    Well, that's ok, because the NHS has a ton of ICU beds.

    Oh wait..
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,622

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    Will there even be a GE if the US has to go into lock down because of coronavirus?

    Almost definitely, you'd need GOP and Dem to agree to cancel it.

    A more relevant question is whether Trump will allow Dem voters to leave their houses and vote in it...
    An answer on Quora:

    There is no circumstance whatosever in the Constitution that allows a president to postpone elections for any reason. The fact that some emergency powers are stated (suspension of habeous corpus in case of a rebellion) only makes it harder to postpone elections, because postponement of elections is not mentioned even under emergency powers.

    All of which is good news. And there are other reasons:

    snip
    A president who even tried to postpone elections would likely be very quickly impeached… even if the Congress was of the same party.
    All these facts help explain why Lindoln never seriously considered postponing the election of 1864, even though six months out, it looked liley he was going to lose!
    Lets just imagine for a second, absolute worst case scenario and the US is forced into a Chinese style lockdown, how can you run a GE?

    I would presume if it wasn't Trump, both parties would probably agree to some sort of temporary suspension. But given how divisive he is and untrusted to stick to his word, I doubt they would.
    The amazing thing is, this is not the ABSOLUTE worst case scenario. this is the REASONABLE worst case scenario (with which I think we all have to deal, so we can make an opinion on the best course ahead).

    The REASONABLE worst case scenario for the UK is tens or hundreds of thousands of dead and critically ill, and a health service that barely survives.

    The WORST case is, probably, partial or even total break down of society and civilisation. That is where we are.

    By nature, worst case, either reasonable or extreme, is unlikely. But increasingly plausible.
    Civilisation did not break down even after Spanish flu which had a death rate 10 times higher than coronavirus
    A point worth debating. But that was then. A world in which expectations were very different to today. Vast numbers died in India iirc, in a country that was still mainly subsistent farming.

    Today, people have a meltdown if their Virgin Internet is down for a day.

    Which is why talking about lockdowning the country for a month is pointless.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,210
    Trump's punditry on the Dem race has been superb
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    Monkeys said:

    HYUFD said:


    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    In this thread, HYUFD will be arguing that falling off a roof never kills anyone. It is the secondary effect of hitting the pavement that is fatal.

    And that is correct, if you fall off a roof onto a net you survive, if you fall off a roof and hit the pavement from 100 feet you die
    You are an idiot.

    COVID19 is a primary viral pneumonitis/pneumonia. It kills by asphyxiation, hence the need for oxygen and multi system life support in 10% of cases.

    By all means sit it out with paracetamol and chicken soup yourself, but do not discourage others from seeking appropriate life saving interventions.
    HYUFD isn't an idiot. He's absolutely right that panic is the biggest potential problem re coronavirus.
    No, the biggest potential problem with coronavirus is coronavirus. Don't Panickers like you are making it worse, by enabling governments not to enact the stringent quarantines we sadly need.

    This is not a rehearsal. The "fear mongering" epidemiologists' predictions have proven to be accurate, even as the plague grows. We can no longer ignore their warnings. And their advice is that we need to self isolate, etc, and cancel mass gatherings, close schools, and so on.

    If we want to get through intact as a society it looks like that's what we've got to do.
    Fine, self isolate with broth, just do not deluge your GP and hospital just because you have a bad cough
    Do you have investments in Hot Broth, Inc?
    As you said earlier, invest in soup companies like Campbells, they will be one of the few winners from coronavirus
    You know that soup isn't actually an anti-viral right?
    There is no cure for coronavirus, hot soup just helps ride it out
    Isn't it soup that caused it in the first place?
    Open meat markets and experimenting on bats caused it, not chicken soup
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,768
    Monkeys said:

    HYUFD said:


    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    In this thread, HYUFD will be arguing that falling off a roof never kills anyone. It is the secondary effect of hitting the pavement that is fatal.

    And that is correct, if you fall off a roof onto a net you survive, if you fall off a roof and hit the pavement from 100 feet you die
    You are an idiot.

    COVID19 is a primary viral pneumonitis/pneumonia. It kills by asphyxiation, hence the need for oxygen and multi system life support in 10% of cases.

    By all means sit it out with paracetamol and chicken soup yourself, but do not discourage others from seeking appropriate life saving interventions.
    HYUFD isn't an idiot. He's absolutely right that panic is the biggest potential problem re coronavirus.
    No, the biggest potential problem with coronavirus is coronavirus. Don't Panickers like you are making it worse, by enabling governments not to enact the stringent quarantines we sadly need.

    This is not a rehearsal. The "fear mongering" epidemiologists' predictions have proven to be accurate, even as the plague grows. We can no longer ignore their warnings. And their advice is that we need to self isolate, etc, and cancel mass gatherings, close schools, and so on.

    If we want to get through intact as a society it looks like that's what we've got to do.
    Fine, self isolate with broth, just do not deluge your GP and hospital just because you have a bad cough
    Do you have investments in Hot Broth, Inc?
    As you said earlier, invest in soup companies like Campbells, they will be one of the few winners from coronavirus
    You know that soup isn't actually an anti-viral right?
    There is no cure for coronavirus, hot soup just helps ride it out
    Isn't it soup that caused it in the first place?
    Bat soup?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,768
    Trip Gabriel, in Raleigh, N.C. 2m ago

    In the South Carolina results that are in so far, Biden looks to be sweeping across the Upstate, which was supposed to be Sanders’s strongest region.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,768
    Night all.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    With 16% in from South Carolina Biden now ahead with 52% to 17% for Sanders in second place

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/primaries-and-caucuses
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 757
    HYUFD said:

    Monkeys said:

    HYUFD said:


    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    In this thread, HYUFD will be arguing that falling off a roof never kills anyone. It is the secondary effect of hitting the pavement that is fatal.

    And that is correct, if you fall off a roof onto a net you survive, if you fall off a roof and hit the pavement from 100 feet you die
    You are an idiot.

    COVID19 is a primary viral pneumonitis/pneumonia. It kills by asphyxiation, hence the need for oxygen and multi system life support in 10% of cases.

    By all means sit it out with paracetamol and chicken soup yourself, but do not discourage others from seeking appropriate life saving interventions.
    HYUFD isn't an idiot. He's absolutely right that panic is the biggest potential problem re coronavirus.
    No, the biggest potential problem with coronavirus is coronavirus. Don't Panickers like you are making it worse, by enabling governments not to enact the stringent quarantines we sadly need.

    This is not a rehearsal. The "fear mongering" epidemiologists' predictions have proven to be accurate, even as the plague grows. We can no longer ignore their warnings. And their advice is that we need to self isolate, etc, and cancel mass gatherings, close schools, and so on.

    If we want to get through intact as a society it looks like that's what we've got to do.
    Fine, self isolate with broth, just do not deluge your GP and hospital just because you have a bad cough
    Do you have investments in Hot Broth, Inc?
    As you said earlier, invest in soup companies like Campbells, they will be one of the few winners from coronavirus
    You know that soup isn't actually an anti-viral right?
    There is no cure for coronavirus, hot soup just helps ride it out
    Isn't it soup that caused it in the first place?
    Open meat markets and experimenting on bats caused it, not chicken soup
    No more bat soup for me then.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    New thread
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,210
    Biden + Sanders just under 70%
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    In the following 53 countries there have been 639 cases of coronavirus and no deaths so far according to John Hopkins University:

    Singapore, Germany, Kuwait, Spain, Thailand, Bahrain, Australia,
    Malaysia, UK, UAE, Canada, Switzerland, Vietnam, Norway,
    Iraq, Sweden, Macau, Austria, Israel, Oman, Netherlands,
    Croatia, Pakistan, Mexico, Lebanon, Greece, India, Denmark,
    Finland, Romania, Russia, Brazil, Afghanistan, Qatar, Nepal,
    Lithuania, Cambodia, Georgia, Ireland, Nigeria, Algeria, Iceland,
    Belgium, San Marino, N Macedonia, Luxembourg, Monaco, Belarus, NZ,
    Estonia, Egypt, Azerbaijan, Sri Lanka.

    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
This discussion has been closed.