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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the South Carolina betting Bernie moves from a 57.5% chance

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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,343

    Jonathan said:

    I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress

    Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem

    So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly

    Nandy will make a huge contribution win or lose. My hunch is that the leadership is a thankless burden and she will be freer and more effective in a senior cabinet post developing policy and forensically pulling apart the government. Playing Robin Cook to Starmers Smith.
    The debate is the first time I have listened to Starmer and I was surprised at how he struggled at times and just seems that he does not want to upset anyone

    I am not at all sure he will be able to hold Boris to account but we will see
    I think that's just the challenge of being the clear leader. Its not that long since Boris was trying very hard not to give any hostages to fortune in a very similar position.

    I find Starmer a little dull but he's still a million times better than Corbyn. Politics in the Commons will return to something like normal when he takes over with a government struggling to cope with a variety of complex issues but not under any actual threat given their majority. Frankly the sooner this happens the better. Corbyn's self indulgence wore thin a long, long time ago.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,897

    If I can distract everyone from the world-ending plague for a moment, Baldur's Gate 3 is looking pretty good.

    Surprised that it might be out at the end of this year, according to some. My own view was something like 2021-2022 would be likelier. Might still be, of course, but it's going to be next gen.

    Theres going to be a Baldurs Gate 3? How is this the first I've heard of it?!

    I played the first 2 for the first time a few years back, very good
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    Jonathan said:

    I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress

    Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem

    So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly

    Nandy will make a huge contribution win or lose. My hunch is that the leadership is a thankless burden and she will be freer and more effective in a senior cabinet post developing policy and forensically pulling apart the government. Playing Robin Cook to Starmers Smith.
    The debate is the first time I have listened to Starmer and I was surprised at how he struggled at times and just seems that he does not want to upset anyone

    I am not at all sure he will be able to hold Boris to account but we will see
    Bit of confirmation bias there Big_G? :wink:
    No not really.

    I am trying to be fair and it is the case Lisa Nandy would be a better leader and cause Boris far more problems. Indeed, the audience gave Lisa a massive win leaving both Starmer and RLB out in the cold

    And I do want a sensible labour party to hold Boris to account
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    Nigelb said:

    Be bloody, bold and resolute.
    Nah. Sell everything.
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    HYUFD said:

    I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress

    Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem

    So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly

    Nandy is a republican and opposes Trident and a complete lightweight, as a Tory she would be almost as good as Long Bailey for me
    You are unwise to dismiss Lisa Nandy - she would hold Boris to account far better than Starmer
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    As I wrote yesterday, if it does go the way it is looking, then only people in the 80s and 90s will have experienced crisis times like it.

    The generations after are about to be severely tested.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,897
    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress

    Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem

    So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly

    Nandy will make a huge contribution win or lose. My hunch is that the leadership is a thankless burden and she will be freer and more effective in a senior cabinet post developing policy and forensically pulling apart the government. Playing Robin Cook to Starmers Smith.
    The debate is the first time I have listened to Starmer and I was surprised at how he struggled at times and just seems that he does not want to upset anyone

    I am not at all sure he will be able to hold Boris to account but we will see
    I think that's just the challenge of being the clear leader. Its not that long since Boris was trying very hard not to give any hostages to fortune in a very similar position.

    I find Starmer a little dull but he's still a million times better than Corbyn. Politics in the Commons will return to something like normal when he takes over with a government struggling to cope with a variety of complex issues but not under any actual threat given their majority. Frankly the sooner this happens the better. Corbyn's self indulgence wore thin a long, long time ago.
    Self indulgence and vanity. He did not spend his career seeking power, he has that, but given his later leadership, his post leadership and the nature of his support it seems like his main goal is to be a venerated grandee, sitting back and doling out his wisdom to admiring fans telling him he should have been PM. I have my bias of course but I cant help shake the view that he loves the treatment he gets from this outcome more than hes concerned about anything else.
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    Mr. kle4, until a day or two ago there was practically no info at all beyond the fact it was being made.

    Best news is that Larian Studios, who made Divinity Original Sin 2, are doing it.
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    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress

    Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem

    So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly

    Nandy will make a huge contribution win or lose. My hunch is that the leadership is a thankless burden and she will be freer and more effective in a senior cabinet post developing policy and forensically pulling apart the government. Playing Robin Cook to Starmers Smith.
    The debate is the first time I have listened to Starmer and I was surprised at how he struggled at times and just seems that he does not want to upset anyone

    I am not at all sure he will be able to hold Boris to account but we will see
    I think that's just the challenge of being the clear leader. Its not that long since Boris was trying very hard not to give any hostages to fortune in a very similar position.

    I find Starmer a little dull but he's still a million times better than Corbyn. Politics in the Commons will return to something like normal when he takes over with a government struggling to cope with a variety of complex issues but not under any actual threat given their majority. Frankly the sooner this happens the better. Corbyn's self indulgence wore thin a long, long time ago.
    Self indulgence and vanity. He did not spend his career seeking power, he has that, but given his later leadership, his post leadership and the nature of his support it seems like his main goal is to be a venerated grandee, sitting back and doling out his wisdom to admiring fans telling him he should have been PM. I have my bias of course but I cant help shake the view that he loves the treatment he gets from this outcome more than hes concerned about anything else.
    Very good post
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,736

    HYUFD said:

    I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress

    Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem

    So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly

    Nandy is a republican and opposes Trident and a complete lightweight, as a Tory she would be almost as good as Long Bailey for me
    You are unwise to dismiss Lisa Nandy - she would hold Boris to account far better than Starmer
    The has at least three major problems: 1) doesn`t look or sound like a prime minister, 2) is now part of woke lobbying groups (e.g. transgender activists), 3) is opposed to our royal family. She is unelectable. If 2) or 3) were known by Wigan voters prior to the GE I doubt she would have won the seat.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    nichomar said:

    How will leaving the transition period on WTO rules fair in a global recession?

    You’re not believing in Brexit enough. Our new points-based system will keep Coronavirus our.
    If you have Coronavirus you'll lose ten points?
    You joke but in other countries points based systems health conditions can be points related. Having long term health conditions can prevent you getting a visa rather than free movement where you can be diagnosed with cancer for example, move here under free movement and get free NHS treatment you never contributed towards prior to moving.
    There is a usual residency test for such cases. Health tourism is largely a myth.
    How frequently does the NHS check?
    You're missing the point there... The checks could be done now without a points system; having a points system won't mean the checks are done.
    When they tried to introduce checks there was huge push back from the NHS (“we’re healthcare professionals not policemen”)

    The border is easier
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    As I wrote yesterday, if it does go the way it is looking, then only people in the 80s and 90s will have experienced crisis times like it.

    The generations after are about to be severely tested.
    Do you mean in 'their' 80s .........
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    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress

    Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem

    So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly

    Nandy is a republican and opposes Trident and a complete lightweight, as a Tory she would be almost as good as Long Bailey for me
    You are unwise to dismiss Lisa Nandy - she would hold Boris to account far better than Starmer
    The has at least three major problems: 1) doesn`t look or sound like a prime minister, 2) is now part of woke lobbying groups (e.g. transgender activists), 3) is opposed to our royal family. She is unelectable. If 2) or 3) were known by Wigan voters prior to the GE I doubt she would have won the seat.
    I accept 2 and 3 are very negative for her
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,731

    Nigelb said:

    Be bloody, bold and resolute.
    Nah. Sell everything.
    Don’t remember that from the play. :smile:
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,461
    edited February 2020

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress

    Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem

    So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly

    Nandy will make a huge contribution win or lose. My hunch is that the leadership is a thankless burden and she will be freer and more effective in a senior cabinet post developing policy and forensically pulling apart the government. Playing Robin Cook to Starmers Smith.
    The debate is the first time I have listened to Starmer and I was surprised at how he struggled at times and just seems that he does not want to upset anyone

    I am not at all sure he will be able to hold Boris to account but we will see
    I think that's just the challenge of being the clear leader. Its not that long since Boris was trying very hard not to give any hostages to fortune in a very similar position.

    I find Starmer a little dull but he's still a million times better than Corbyn. Politics in the Commons will return to something like normal when he takes over with a government struggling to cope with a variety of complex issues but not under any actual threat given their majority. Frankly the sooner this happens the better. Corbyn's self indulgence wore thin a long, long time ago.
    Self indulgence and vanity. He did not spend his career seeking power, he has that, but given his later leadership, his post leadership and the nature of his support it seems like his main goal is to be a venerated grandee, sitting back and doling out his wisdom to admiring fans telling him he should have been PM. I have my bias of course but I cant help shake the view that he loves the treatment he gets from this outcome more than hes concerned about anything else.
    Very good post
    Not really. It misses the lessons of 2017 when Corbyn-led Labour vastly outperformed polls and expectations. Boris and CCHQ did not miss this.

    People deride Corbynistas for saying they won the argument -- what use is winning arguments if you lose the election? But in a sense, they are right. Boris won not by being a better Theresa May but by being a better Jeremy Corbyn.
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    I like Lisa Nandy a lot and she has huge potential. This campaign, however, has shown that she is not yet ready for the role of leader. She's made quite a few avoidable mistakes. I think she will be ready in time, but she has some learning to do yet.

    Of the choices available, the Labour party looks set to choose the current best option.
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    GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123

    As I wrote yesterday, if it does go the way it is looking, then only people in the 80s and 90s will have experienced crisis times like it.

    The generations after are about to be severely tested.
    We are. Each one of us is going to learn a lot about ourselves and how we respond in crisis. As a society and country, the same.
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,363
    edited February 2020

    I like Lisa Nandy a lot and she has huge potential. This campaign, however, has shown that she is not yet ready for the role of leader. She's made quite a few avoidable mistakes. I think she will be ready in time, but she has some learning to do yet.

    Of the choices available, the Labour party looks set to choose the current best option.

    and God help them (not literally) The head may change but a snake is still a snake
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    HYUFD said:
    Who cares what he has to say about anything? I do wish overpaid privileged actors would stick to acting. Not once has any of them had something substantial or useful to add to public discourse.
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    Anyway, we haven't had a good "stock up on nuts and berries" stock market panic for over a decade. It makes me feel nostalgic for the credit crunch.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    Dura_Ace said:

    nichomar said:

    How will leaving the transition period on WTO rules fair in a global recession?

    Just fine because we'll have the 𝐀𝐔𝐒𝐓𝐑𝐀𝐋𝐈𝐀 𝐃𝐄𝐀𝐋!
    Great isn't it? Austalia trades just fine and isn't some apocalyptic wasteland.

    Calling it the Australia deal puts into context that its not awful as people make out pretending we'll be like North Korea etc
    Why not just call it the WTO No deal deal rather than try to make up stuff to pretend you have actually done something. Bunch of liars.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    Jonathan said:

    I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress

    Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem

    So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly

    Nandy will make a huge contribution win or lose. My hunch is that the leadership is a thankless burden and she will be freer and more effective in a senior cabinet post developing policy and forensically pulling apart the government. Playing Robin Cook to Starmers Smith.
    The debate is the first time I have listened to Starmer and I was surprised at how he struggled at times and just seems that he does not want to upset anyone

    I am not at all sure he will be able to hold Boris to account but we will see
    G, given Boris is just an unprincipled lying cheating toerag , he will only be held to account when he is chucked out on his fat derriere.
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    malcolmg said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    nichomar said:

    How will leaving the transition period on WTO rules fair in a global recession?

    Just fine because we'll have the 𝐀𝐔𝐒𝐓𝐑𝐀𝐋𝐈𝐀 𝐃𝐄𝐀𝐋!
    Great isn't it? Austalia trades just fine and isn't some apocalyptic wasteland.

    Calling it the Australia deal puts into context that its not awful as people make out pretending we'll be like North Korea etc
    Why not just call it the WTO No deal deal rather than try to make up stuff to pretend you have actually done something. Bunch of liars.
    Morning Malc

    It is a WTO, but Australia deal is just pure politics that even Nicola would be proud of
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    malcolmg said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    nichomar said:

    How will leaving the transition period on WTO rules fair in a global recession?

    Just fine because we'll have the 𝐀𝐔𝐒𝐓𝐑𝐀𝐋𝐈𝐀 𝐃𝐄𝐀𝐋!
    Great isn't it? Austalia trades just fine and isn't some apocalyptic wasteland.

    Calling it the Australia deal puts into context that its not awful as people make out pretending we'll be like North Korea etc
    Why not just call it the WTO No deal deal rather than try to make up stuff to pretend you have actually done something. Bunch of liars.
    It's the North Korea deal. Leavers haven't actually identified any area where they can reach agreement with the EU on terms that the EU would accept. It's a visceral hatred of the EU.

    When they start looking at how WTO terms work, they'll decide that those are altogether too EU-friendly and agitate to leave that too.
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    The Swiss has banned all gatherings over 1,000 people, over covid 19
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    F1: last day of pre-season testing.

    Not reading too much into things. Suspect Mercedes will, again, be top dog. The fact their steering shenanigans are banned in 2021 indicates it works pretty well.
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    malcolmg said:

    Jonathan said:

    I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress

    Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem

    So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly

    Nandy will make a huge contribution win or lose. My hunch is that the leadership is a thankless burden and she will be freer and more effective in a senior cabinet post developing policy and forensically pulling apart the government. Playing Robin Cook to Starmers Smith.
    The debate is the first time I have listened to Starmer and I was surprised at how he struggled at times and just seems that he does not want to upset anyone

    I am not at all sure he will be able to hold Boris to account but we will see
    G, given Boris is just an unprincipled lying cheating toerag , he will only be held to account when he is chucked out on his fat derriere.
    Not uncommon in all politicians including SNP ones
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    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:
    In the betting, but not in the national polls.
    My prediction is that a strong showing by Biden in SC pushes his price down to @3.5
    It’s tempting to lay Biden at 4.1 at the moment to be honest
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    Mr. Meeks, do you think the EU desire to be able to impose their ongoing changes in EU regulation upon us is a reasonable demand?
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,758
    edited February 2020
    malcolmg said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    nichomar said:

    How will leaving the transition period on WTO rules fair in a global recession?

    Just fine because we'll have the 𝐀𝐔𝐒𝐓𝐑𝐀𝐋𝐈𝐀 𝐃𝐄𝐀𝐋!
    Great isn't it? Austalia trades just fine and isn't some apocalyptic wasteland.

    Calling it the Australia deal puts into context that its not awful as people make out pretending we'll be like North Korea etc
    Why not just call it the WTO No deal deal rather than try to make up stuff to pretend you have actually done something. Bunch of liars.
    Yup. Australia already trades with the EU on better than WTO terms, it has agreed and will shortly implement a framework with the EU that goes well beyond those those and includes commitments this government has rejected. It is currently negotiating a full FTA. Australia doesn't want to trade with the EU on "Australia Rules"

    The interesting thing is why Australia is the only foreign country Brexiteers approve of. Presumably because it is (perceived) white, English speaking and was rightfully a colony. Canada refuses to play along with the Brexiteer rhetoric and so is ostracised at the moment.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,080
    FF43 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    nichomar said:

    How will leaving the transition period on WTO rules fair in a global recession?

    Just fine because we'll have the 𝐀𝐔𝐒𝐓𝐑𝐀𝐋𝐈𝐀 𝐃𝐄𝐀𝐋!
    Great isn't it? Austalia trades just fine and isn't some apocalyptic wasteland.

    Calling it the Australia deal puts into context that its not awful as people make out pretending we'll be like North Korea etc
    Why not just call it the WTO No deal deal rather than try to make up stuff to pretend you have actually done something. Bunch of liars.
    Yup. Australia already trades with the EU on better than WTO terms, it has agreed and will shortly implement a framework with the EU that goes well beyond those those and includes commitments this government has rejected. It is currently negotiating a full FTA. Australia doesn't want to trade with the Australia on "Australia Rules"

    The interesting thing is why Australia is the only foreign country Brexiteers approve of. Presumably because it is (perceived) white, English speaking and was rightfully a colony. Canada refuses to play along with the Brexiteer rhetoric and so is ostracised at the moment.
    Boris wants a Canada style FTA, Barnier has refused demanding more alignment than Canada has with the EU for a UK FTA let alone what Australia will have to comply with
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    I must be the only person buying stocks at the moment..
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited February 2020

    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:
    In the betting, but not in the national polls.
    My prediction is that a strong showing by Biden in SC pushes his price down to @3.5
    It’s tempting to lay Biden at 4.1 at the moment to be honest
    You will note that I have not defined what 'strong' means so I can execute a smooth reverse ferret should this not happen.

    Given the improvement of my cashout value I am tempted to hit the cashout button and rebuild by book, but I simply wouldn't be able to get the level of green on Biden I have now without putting me at unnacceptable risk elsewhere.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    malcolmg said:

    Jonathan said:

    I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress

    Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem

    So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly

    Nandy will make a huge contribution win or lose. My hunch is that the leadership is a thankless burden and she will be freer and more effective in a senior cabinet post developing policy and forensically pulling apart the government. Playing Robin Cook to Starmers Smith.
    The debate is the first time I have listened to Starmer and I was surprised at how he struggled at times and just seems that he does not want to upset anyone

    I am not at all sure he will be able to hold Boris to account but we will see
    G, given Boris is just an unprincipled lying cheating toerag , he will only be held to account when he is chucked out on his fat derriere.
    Not uncommon in all politicians including SNP ones
    G, come on , most politicians have some principles , he is the worst I have ever seen in my life , totally unfit to hold any public office.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,080

    HYUFD said:

    I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress

    Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem

    So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly

    Nandy is a republican and opposes Trident and a complete lightweight, as a Tory she would be almost as good as Long Bailey for me
    You are unwise to dismiss Lisa Nandy - she would hold Boris to account far better than Starmer
    Rubbish, she is a complete lightweight and Boris would trounce her, Starmer was the ex DPP and far more forensic
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,997

    Mr. Meeks, do you think the EU desire to be able to impose their ongoing changes in EU regulation upon us is a reasonable demand?

    Do you think it would be reasonable for the UK to impose ongoing changes in UK regulations on say food standards or safety standards on countries wanting to export to the UK?

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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,728
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    nichomar said:

    How will leaving the transition period on WTO rules fair in a global recession?

    You’re not believing in Brexit enough. Our new points-based system will keep Coronavirus our.
    If you have Coronavirus you'll lose ten points?
    You joke but in other countries points based systems health conditions can be points related. Having long term health conditions can prevent you getting a visa rather than free movement where you can be diagnosed with cancer for example, move here under free movement and get free NHS treatment you never contributed towards prior to moving.
    There is a usual residency test for such cases. Health tourism is largely a myth.
    How frequently does the NHS check?
    You're missing the point there... The checks could be done now without a points system; having a points system won't mean the checks are done.
    When they tried to introduce checks there was huge push back from the NHS (“we’re healthcare professionals not policemen”)

    The border is easier
    The checks are done by the admin team, not frontline staff. They sometimes clarify with me whether something is an emergency or not, but generally just get on with charging non-residents, and cancel routine admissions if they won't pay.

    The ones that we miss are mostly the older Brits living in Spain. Often these maintain a ghost address and GP address in the UK.
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    FF43 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    nichomar said:

    How will leaving the transition period on WTO rules fair in a global recession?

    Just fine because we'll have the 𝐀𝐔𝐒𝐓𝐑𝐀𝐋𝐈𝐀 𝐃𝐄𝐀𝐋!
    Great isn't it? Austalia trades just fine and isn't some apocalyptic wasteland.

    Calling it the Australia deal puts into context that its not awful as people make out pretending we'll be like North Korea etc
    Why not just call it the WTO No deal deal rather than try to make up stuff to pretend you have actually done something. Bunch of liars.
    Yup. Australia already trades with the EU on better than WTO terms, it has agreed and will shortly implement a framework with the EU that goes well beyond those those and includes commitments this government has rejected. It is currently negotiating a full FTA. Australia doesn't want to trade with the EU on "Australia Rules"

    The interesting thing is why Australia is the only foreign country Brexiteers approve of. Presumably because it is (perceived) white, English speaking and was rightfully a colony. Canada refuses to play along with the Brexiteer rhetoric and so is ostracised at the moment.
    Because Canada was never perceived as white, English speaking and rightfully a colony.

    I don’t think there’s any ostracism of Canada - we signed all sorts of bilateral foreign and defence cooperation deals with them under Cameron and Hague, and they remain extremely friendly - I think the beef is with the EU changing their tune on offering a Canada-type deal to the UK.
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    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:
    In the betting, but not in the national polls.
    My prediction is that a strong showing by Biden in SC pushes his price down to @3.5
    It’s tempting to lay Biden at 4.1 at the moment to be honest
    You will note that I have not defined what 'strong' means so I can execute a smooth reverse ferret should this not happen.

    Given the improvement of my cashout value I am tempted to hit the cashout button and rebuild by book, but I simply wouldn't be able to get the level of green on Biden I have now without putting me at unnacceptable risk elsewhere.
    I’ve laid him off a little bit.

    He’s still yet to be tested.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,343

    I must be the only person buying stocks at the moment..

    Err, no you're not. It is one of the Stock market illusions aided by the media. For every seller there is a buyer and the same number of shares at the end of the day as there was at the start.
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    HYUFD said:
    That's almost the only national poll I've seen with BIden ahead - he better hope for more.
    Love how the Yang Gang aren't going to let a little thing like Yang withdrawing from the race stop them from voting for him
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,526
    edited February 2020
    Before you post about Covid-19 remember this.


  • Options
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Jonathan said:

    I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress

    Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem

    So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly

    Nandy will make a huge contribution win or lose. My hunch is that the leadership is a thankless burden and she will be freer and more effective in a senior cabinet post developing policy and forensically pulling apart the government. Playing Robin Cook to Starmers Smith.
    The debate is the first time I have listened to Starmer and I was surprised at how he struggled at times and just seems that he does not want to upset anyone

    I am not at all sure he will be able to hold Boris to account but we will see
    G, given Boris is just an unprincipled lying cheating toerag , he will only be held to account when he is chucked out on his fat derriere.
    Not uncommon in all politicians including SNP ones
    G, come on , most politicians have some principles , he is the worst I have ever seen in my life , totally unfit to hold any public office.
    Maybe but he still commands an 80 seat majority
  • Options

    I must be the only person buying stocks at the moment..

    I must be the only person (on pb) not handling his own investments; no stockbroker on the end of the phone; no pile of gold bars under the mattress. I just hope the pension people know what they are doing. Redundancy looms, which does not help.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,343

    Before you post about Covid-19 remember this.


    Very good letter.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,758

    FF43 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    nichomar said:

    How will leaving the transition period on WTO rules fair in a global recession?

    Just fine because we'll have the 𝐀𝐔𝐒𝐓𝐑𝐀𝐋𝐈𝐀 𝐃𝐄𝐀𝐋!
    Great isn't it? Austalia trades just fine and isn't some apocalyptic wasteland.

    Calling it the Australia deal puts into context that its not awful as people make out pretending we'll be like North Korea etc
    Why not just call it the WTO No deal deal rather than try to make up stuff to pretend you have actually done something. Bunch of liars.
    Yup. Australia already trades with the EU on better than WTO terms, it has agreed and will shortly implement a framework with the EU that goes well beyond those those and includes commitments this government has rejected. It is currently negotiating a full FTA. Australia doesn't want to trade with the EU on "Australia Rules"

    The interesting thing is why Australia is the only foreign country Brexiteers approve of. Presumably because it is (perceived) white, English speaking and was rightfully a colony. Canada refuses to play along with the Brexiteer rhetoric and so is ostracised at the moment.
    Because Canada was never perceived as white, English speaking and rightfully a colony.

    I don’t think there’s any ostracism of Canada - we signed all sorts of bilateral foreign and defence cooperation deals with them under Cameron and Hague, and they remain extremely friendly - I think the beef is with the EU changing their tune on offering a Canada-type deal to the UK.
    Canada refused to roll over its CETA deal to the UK, as it didn't see the benefit of doing so. The UK government is annoyed with Canada.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress

    Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem

    So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly

    Nandy is a republican and opposes Trident and a complete lightweight, as a Tory she would be almost as good as Long Bailey for me
    You are unwise to dismiss Lisa Nandy - she would hold Boris to account far better than Starmer
    Rubbish, she is a complete lightweight and Boris would trounce her, Starmer was the ex DPP and far more forensic
    You are so wrong on this
  • Options

    Mr. Meeks, do you think the EU desire to be able to impose their ongoing changes in EU regulation upon us is a reasonable demand?

    I think the question is entirely misconceived and reflects a fundamental naivete / insularity on the part of Leavers even to ask.

    I may do a thread header on this.
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,736

    I like Lisa Nandy a lot and she has huge potential. This campaign, however, has shown that she is not yet ready for the role of leader. She's made quite a few avoidable mistakes. I think she will be ready in time, but she has some learning to do yet.

    Of the choices available, the Labour party looks set to choose the current best option.

    Agreed, though Thornberry is almost as well suited in my view. I susoect that if Starmer hadn`t run, and it was between Thornberry/RLB/Nandy, we`d be saying similar things about Thornberry as we are about Starmer.
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,997
    edited February 2020

    The Swiss has banned all gatherings over 1,000 people, over covid 19

    That is bizarre. More sensible is the Chinese ruling that the density of shoppers in supermarkets should not exceed one person per two square metres and the queue outside should be spaced two metres apart.

    I'll feel much safer skiing empty wide pistes in North Italy in 8 days time than travelling on the London tube which I did yesterday. Wore gloves, didn't touch my face, washed my hands afterwards and used "First Defence". I can't wait to get out to a safer place.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,897
    edited February 2020

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    I have just watched ress

    Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem

    So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly

    Nandy will make a huge contribution win or lose. My hunch is that the leadership is a thankless burden and she will be freer and ith.
    The debate is the first time I have listened to ne

    I am not at all sure he will be able to hold Boris to account but we will see
    I think that's just the challenge of being the clear leader. Its not that long since Boris was trying very hard not to give any hostages to fortune in a very similar position.

    I find Starmer a little dull but he's still a million times better than Corbyn. Politics in the Commons will return to something like normal when he takes over with a government struggling to cope with a variety of complex issues but not under any actual threat given their majority. Frankly the sooner this happens the better. Corbyn's self indulgence wore thin a long, long time ago.
    Self indulgence and vanity. He did not spend his career seeking power, he has that, but given his later leadership, his post leadership and the nature of his support it seems like his main goal is to ore than hes concerned about anything else.
    Very good post
    Not really. It misses the lessons of 2017 when Corbyn-led Labour vastly outperformed polls and expectations. Boris and CCHQ did not miss this.

    People deride Corbynistas for saying they won the argument -- what use is winning arguments if you lose the election? But in a sense, they are right. Boris won not by being a better Theresa May but by being a better Jeremy Corbyn.
    My post had nothing to do with 2017 or about his comments on winning the argument. So it only missed thr point in the sense that it was completely unrelated. It wasnt to do with his performance but my personal view of him.

    People will disagree with my view, I acknowledge my bias against him although I'm nicer to him than many and thought hed outperform the polls in 2019, but it wasnt an analysis of his performance but his character, which I don't think is as humble and saintly as he clearly thinks of himself and is happier basking in a comfort zone.

    Whether he transformed the party and if that is good or bad and if he did well in 2017 compared to expectations, is a separate debate entirely.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,340
    edited February 2020
    First COVID confirmed in Wales

    And it is not me
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,080
    edited February 2020

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress

    Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem

    So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly

    Nandy is a republican and opposes Trident and a complete lightweight, as a Tory she would be almost as good as Long Bailey for me
    You are unwise to dismiss Lisa Nandy - she would hold Boris to account far better than Starmer
    Rubbish, she is a complete lightweight and Boris would trounce her, Starmer was the ex DPP and far more forensic
    You are so wrong on this
    No I am right, having watched Nandy I wouldn't put her in contention to lead Epping Council let alone the country she is a complete lightweight.

    Starmer also has a +5% rating with the public not -1% like Nandy or -25% like Long Bailey

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/low-public-awareness-all-labour-leadership-candidates-although-keir-starmer-starting-stronger
  • Options

    First COVID confirmed in Wales

    Sheep to human transmission?

    If so we might have to quarantine Wales.
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,736
    DavidL said:

    Before you post about Covid-19 remember this.


    Very good letter.
    Yes, I agree. The reaction to this is more damaging to markets and the global economy than the virus itself. Sentiment rules, but is fickle. Looks like the end of the world now but markets will recover - but when?
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress

    Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem

    So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly

    Nandy is a republican and opposes Trident and a complete lightweight, as a Tory she would be almost as good as Long Bailey for me
    You are unwise to dismiss Lisa Nandy - she would hold Boris to account far better than Starmer
    Rubbish, she is a complete lightweight and Boris would trounce her, Starmer was the ex DPP and far more forensic
    They said the same about the barrister Michael Howard QC MP and it did not help him against Blair. Boris's blustering style might come across as bullying a woman LotO, be that Lisa Nandy or Rebecca Long-Bailey. I doubt we shall find out.

  • Options
    Mr. Barnesian, the demand from the EU isn't for exports but domestic law, as I understand it.

    Every nation/trading bloc has criteria that must be met by others wishing to export to it. That's fine. A desire to dictate domestic law, particularly by a trading bloc upon a nation state that has voted to leave it, is not.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,080
    edited February 2020

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress

    Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem

    So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly

    Nandy is a republican and opposes Trident and a complete lightweight, as a Tory she would be almost as good as Long Bailey for me
    You are unwise to dismiss Lisa Nandy - she would hold Boris to account far better than Starmer
    Rubbish, she is a complete lightweight and Boris would trounce her, Starmer was the ex DPP and far more forensic
    They said the same about the barrister Michael Howard QC MP and it did not help him against Blair. Boris's blustering style might come across as bullying a woman LotO, be that Lisa Nandy or Rebecca Long-Bailey. I doubt we shall find out.

    Howard often bested Blair actually and gained 32 seats at the 2005 general election and might well have won most seats in 2010 against Brown had he stayed leader
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress

    Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem

    So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly

    Nandy is a republican and opposes Trident and a complete lightweight, as a Tory she would be almost as good as Long Bailey for me
    You are unwise to dismiss Lisa Nandy - she would hold Boris to account far better than Starmer
    Rubbish, she is a complete lightweight and Boris would trounce her, Starmer was the ex DPP and far more forensic
    You are so wrong on this
    No I am right, having watched Nandy I wouldn't put her in contention to lead Epping Council let alone the country she is a complete lightweight.

    Starmer also has a +5% rating with the public not -1% like Nandy or -25% like Long Bailey

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/low-public-awareness-all-labour-leadership-candidates-although-keir-starmer-starting-stronger
    No you are wrong as you are quite often.

    We therefore disagree
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,997

    I must be the only person buying stocks at the moment..

    I must be the only person (on pb) not handling his own investments; no stockbroker on the end of the phone; no pile of gold bars under the mattress. I just hope the pension people know what they are doing. Redundancy looms, which does not help.
    I'm taking a big loss on my equities but I'll feel it is worth it if this drop in stock markets denies Trump a second term.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,080
    edited February 2020

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress

    Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem

    So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly

    Nandy is a republican and opposes Trident and a complete lightweight, as a Tory she would be almost as good as Long Bailey for me
    You are unwise to dismiss Lisa Nandy - she would hold Boris to account far better than Starmer
    Rubbish, she is a complete lightweight and Boris would trounce her, Starmer was the ex DPP and far more forensic
    You are so wrong on this
    No I am right, having watched Nandy I wouldn't put her in contention to lead Epping Council let alone the country she is a complete lightweight.

    Starmer also has a +5% rating with the public not -1% like Nandy or -25% like Long Bailey

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/low-public-awareness-all-labour-leadership-candidates-although-keir-starmer-starting-stronger
    No you are wrong as you are quite often.

    We therefore disagree
    No I am right and the evidence as I linked to supports me.

    You came round to my view on Boris eventually if I recall too
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited February 2020

    HYUFD said:
    That's almost the only national poll I've seen with BIden ahead - he better hope for more.
    Love how the Yang Gang aren't going to let a little thing like Yang withdrawing from the race stop them from voting for him
    It's very interesting to see whether Sanders would contemplate having Yang as a Vice-Preseidetial candidate, as quite of few the "Yang Gang" apparently want. It could broaden his appeal without necessarily strongly diluting it, as Yang represents a very conscientious business constituency, and his UBI campaign could be a good fit for Sanders, only as a potentiak problem just costing too much money on top of Sanders' other commitments. The problem is the symbolism of it with women voters and democrats.

    Meanwhile, in what was supposed to Biden's gently Clintonite constituency of black sympathy, this is what's going on in African-American communities communities countrywide. Independents, never-Trumpers and centre democrats may not be enough for Biden, just as we don't know at all so far the strength of the potential anti-Sanders backlash and what the significance of that is.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ikgh4JbAWUU

  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress

    Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem

    So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly

    Nandy is a republican and opposes Trident and a complete lightweight, as a Tory she would be almost as good as Long Bailey for me
    You are unwise to dismiss Lisa Nandy - she would hold Boris to account far better than Starmer
    Rubbish, she is a complete lightweight and Boris would trounce her, Starmer was the ex DPP and far more forensic
    You are so wrong on this
    No I am right, having watched Nandy I wouldn't put her in contention to lead Epping Council let alone the country she is a complete lightweight.

    Starmer also has a +5% rating with the public not -1% like Nandy or -25% like Long Bailey

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/low-public-awareness-all-labour-leadership-candidates-although-keir-starmer-starting-stronger
    No you are wrong as you are quite often.

    We therefore disagree
    No I am right and the evidence as I linked to supports me.

    You came round to my view on Boris eventually if I recall too
    Parroting opinion polls does not make you right. The difference between +5 and -1 on a hypothetical like this is meaningless fluff.

    And I backed Boris too - but didn't have your track record of backing JRM, Biden and a Corbyn recovery in Scotland so I'm counting that as a win.
  • Options

    First COVID confirmed in Wales

    Sheep to human transmission?

    If so we might have to quarantine Wales.
    And New Zealand.
  • Options
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    nichomar said:

    How will leaving the transition period on WTO rules fair in a global recession?

    Just fine because we'll have the 𝐀𝐔𝐒𝐓𝐑𝐀𝐋𝐈𝐀 𝐃𝐄𝐀𝐋!
    Great isn't it? Austalia trades just fine and isn't some apocalyptic wasteland.

    Calling it the Australia deal puts into context that its not awful as people make out pretending we'll be like North Korea etc
    Why not just call it the WTO No deal deal rather than try to make up stuff to pretend you have actually done something. Bunch of liars.
    Yup. Australia already trades with the EU on better than WTO terms, it has agreed and will shortly implement a framework with the EU that goes well beyond those those and includes commitments this government has rejected. It is currently negotiating a full FTA. Australia doesn't want to trade with the EU on "Australia Rules"

    The interesting thing is why Australia is the only foreign country Brexiteers approve of. Presumably because it is (perceived) white, English speaking and was rightfully a colony. Canada refuses to play along with the Brexiteer rhetoric and so is ostracised at the moment.
    Because Canada was never perceived as white, English speaking and rightfully a colony.

    I don’t think there’s any ostracism of Canada - we signed all sorts of bilateral foreign and defence cooperation deals with them under Cameron and Hague, and they remain extremely friendly - I think the beef is with the EU changing their tune on offering a Canada-type deal to the UK.
    Canada refused to roll over its CETA deal to the UK, as it didn't see the benefit of doing so. The UK government is annoyed with Canada.
    Canada pursued CETA as one of its primary objectives was to get free trade with the UK. Now it’s gone they will need to replace it:

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/theconversation.com/amp/canada-u-k-free-trade-a-post-brexit-opportunity-130970

  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress

    Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem

    So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly

    Nandy is a republican and opposes Trident and a complete lightweight, as a Tory she would be almost as good as Long Bailey for me
    You are unwise to dismiss Lisa Nandy - she would hold Boris to account far better than Starmer
    Rubbish, she is a complete lightweight and Boris would trounce her, Starmer was the ex DPP and far more forensic
    You are so wrong on this
    No I am right, having watched Nandy I wouldn't put her in contention to lead Epping Council let alone the country she is a complete lightweight.

    Starmer also has a +5% rating with the public not -1% like Nandy or -25% like Long Bailey

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/low-public-awareness-all-labour-leadership-candidates-although-keir-starmer-starting-stronger
    No you are wrong as you are quite often.

    We therefore disagree
    No I am right and the evidence as I linked to supports me.

    You came round to my view on Boris eventually if I recall too
    No you are not.

    It is time you are called out for constant reliance on polls and blind belief you are never wrong

    You are wrong quite often
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    I must be the only person buying stocks at the moment..

    Err, no you're not. It is one of the Stock market illusions aided by the media. For every seller there is a buyer and the same number of shares at the end of the day as there was at the start.
    Well, quite. And price balances it out.

    It would have been more accurate to say I’m the only one (on here) willing to talk about buying stock.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress

    Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem

    So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly

    Nandy is a republican and opposes Trident and a complete lightweight, as a Tory she would be almost as good as Long Bailey for me
    You are unwise to dismiss Lisa Nandy - she would hold Boris to account far better than Starmer
    Rubbish, she is a complete lightweight and Boris would trounce her, Starmer was the ex DPP and far more forensic
    They said the same about the barrister Michael Howard QC MP and it did not help him against Blair. Boris's blustering style might come across as bullying a woman LotO, be that Lisa Nandy or Rebecca Long-Bailey. I doubt we shall find out.

    Howard often bested Blair actually and gained 32 seats at the 2005 general election and might well have won most seats in 2010 against Brown had he stayed leader
    Howard might have won a majority in 2010 against a flawed prime minister and the economic aftermath of the global financial crisis. With hindsight, Cameron's failure to do so might have been the first sign he was a terrible campaigner, before he almost lost SindyRef and did lose EURef.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,080
    edited February 2020

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress

    Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem

    So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly

    Nandy is a republican and opposes Trident and a complete lightweight, as a Tory she would be almost as good as Long Bailey for me
    You are unwise to dismiss Lisa Nandy - she would hold Boris to account far better than Starmer
    Rubbish, she is a complete lightweight and Boris would trounce her, Starmer was the ex DPP and far more forensic
    You are so wrong on this
    No I am right, having watched Nandy I wouldn't put her in contention to lead Epping Council let alone the country she is a complete lightweight.

    Starmer also has a +5% rating with the public not -1% like Nandy or -25% like Long Bailey

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/low-public-awareness-all-labour-leadership-candidates-although-keir-starmer-starting-stronger
    No you are wrong as you are quite often.

    We therefore disagree
    No I am right and the evidence as I linked to supports me.

    You came round to my view on Boris eventually if I recall too
    Parroting opinion polls does not make you right. The difference between +5 and -1 on a hypothetical like this is meaningless fluff.

    And I backed Boris too - but didn't have your track record of backing JRM, Biden and a Corbyn recovery in Scotland so I'm counting that as a win.
    I never backed JRM just said he was a contender, you were certainly not pro Boris before I was but often quite pro Hunt if I recall. Biden is going to win SC big on Saturday and is now back in contention in national polls (anyway I said Sanders would still likely be nominee but Biden better for the general) and Corbyn gained 6 seats in Scotland in 2017 too.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1233290092061634560?s=20


    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1233253863635005440?s=20
    So I don't need any pontificating from you thankyou very much
  • Options

    I must be the only person buying stocks at the moment..

    I must be the only person (on pb) not handling his own investments; no stockbroker on the end of the phone; no pile of gold bars under the mattress. I just hope the pension people know what they are doing. Redundancy looms, which does not help.
    Not at all. I leave it all to other people. Investment managers are scarily bright and scarily well-informed. Even they struggle to show that they make a difference as compared with their peers or as compared with tracker funds.

    I'm not going to try to compete with them. If I beat them, it would mostly be by accident.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,080

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress

    Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem

    So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly

    Nandy is a republican and opposes Trident and a complete lightweight, as a Tory she would be almost as good as Long Bailey for me
    You are unwise to dismiss Lisa Nandy - she would hold Boris to account far better than Starmer
    Rubbish, she is a complete lightweight and Boris would trounce her, Starmer was the ex DPP and far more forensic
    You are so wrong on this
    No I am right, having watched Nandy I wouldn't put her in contention to lead Epping Council let alone the country she is a complete lightweight.

    Starmer also has a +5% rating with the public not -1% like Nandy or -25% like Long Bailey

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/low-public-awareness-all-labour-leadership-candidates-although-keir-starmer-starting-stronger
    No you are wrong as you are quite often.

    We therefore disagree
    No I am right and the evidence as I linked to supports me.

    You came round to my view on Boris eventually if I recall too
    No you are not.

    It is time you are called out for constant reliance on polls and blind belief you are never wrong

    You are wrong quite often
    I say what I think and more often than not right, if you dislike it BigG tough
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    Can anyone make the case for Bloomberg or Buttigieg to me at current prices ?
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress

    Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem

    So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly

    Nandy is a republican and opposes Trident and a complete lightweight, as a Tory she would be almost as good as Long Bailey for me
    You are unwise to dismiss Lisa Nandy - she would hold Boris to account far better than Starmer
    Rubbish, she is a complete lightweight and Boris would trounce her, Starmer was the ex DPP and far more forensic
    You are so wrong on this
    No I am right, having watched Nandy I wouldn't put her in contention to lead Epping Council let alone the country she is a complete lightweight.

    Starmer also has a +5% rating with the public not -1% like Nandy or -25% like Long Bailey

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/low-public-awareness-all-labour-leadership-candidates-although-keir-starmer-starting-stronger
    No you are wrong as you are quite often.

    We therefore disagree
    No I am right and the evidence as I linked to supports me.

    You came round to my view on Boris eventually if I recall too
    Parroting opinion polls does not make you right. The difference between +5 and -1 on a hypothetical like this is meaningless fluff.

    And I backed Boris too - but didn't have your track record of backing JRM, Biden and a Corbyn recovery in Scotland so I'm counting that as a win.
    I bever backed JRM just said he was a contender, you were certainly not pro Boris before I was but often quite pro Hunt if I recall. Biden is going to win SC big on Saturday and is now back in contention in national polls (anyway I said Sanders would still likely be nominee but Biden better for the general) and Corbyn gained 6 seats in Scotland in 2017 too.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1233290092061634560?s=20


    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1233253863635005440?s=20
    So I don't need any pontificating from you thankyou very much
    You are being called out for blind acceptance of polls and inability to accept you are wrong on occasions.

    Your post makes the case
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    kamskikamski Posts: 4,261

    malcolmg said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    nichomar said:

    How will leaving the transition period on WTO rules fair in a global recession?

    Just fine because we'll have the 𝐀𝐔𝐒𝐓𝐑𝐀𝐋𝐈𝐀 𝐃𝐄𝐀𝐋!
    Great isn't it? Austalia trades just fine and isn't some apocalyptic wasteland.

    Calling it the Australia deal puts into context that its not awful as people make out pretending we'll be like North Korea etc
    Why not just call it the WTO No deal deal rather than try to make up stuff to pretend you have actually done something. Bunch of liars.
    It's the North Korea deal. Leavers haven't actually identified any area where they can reach agreement with the EU on terms that the EU would accept. It's a visceral hatred of the EU.

    When they start looking at how WTO terms work, they'll decide that those are altogether too EU-friendly and agitate to leave that too.
    Certainly abiding by wto rules involves an unacceptable loss of sovereignty.
    Or if you're a lexiter then it's obvious the wto is just a capitalist club designed to prevent countries from implementing socialism.
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    malcolmg said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    nichomar said:

    How will leaving the transition period on WTO rules fair in a global recession?

    Just fine because we'll have the 𝐀𝐔𝐒𝐓𝐑𝐀𝐋𝐈𝐀 𝐃𝐄𝐀𝐋!
    Great isn't it? Austalia trades just fine and isn't some apocalyptic wasteland.

    Calling it the Australia deal puts into context that its not awful as people make out pretending we'll be like North Korea etc
    Why not just call it the WTO No deal deal rather than try to make up stuff to pretend you have actually done something. Bunch of liars.
    Because context matters. People have drawn a panic about WTO or "No Deal" like its the end of the frigging world. Its not. Calling it "Australian style trade" (which is the term I've seen used more than "Australia deal" and is entirely accurate) puts WTO into context.

    There's a lot of similarities between the paranoia and overreactions over COVID and WTO. Its a new and exotic change but unlikely to actually lead to much in the end and we'll probably look back and wiser heads will wonder what all the fuss was about. Yes its got the
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,343
    I think he's right about this. I also wonder if Hunt might be persuaded to come back to be the Virus czar. He seemed to be at important meetings the other day and interdepartmental organisation is going to be important here.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,997
    Pulpstar said:

    Can anyone make the case for Bloomberg or Buttigieg to me at current prices ?

    Trump wants Pete as his opponent. Does that count?



  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    Can anyone make the case for Bloomberg or Buttigieg to me at current prices ?

    I'm not going to try. I feel slightly sorry for Pete Buttigieg because he would have had a lot more momentum from Iowa if the count hadn't been completely screwed up. But he failed to establish himself as the leading moderate and he's slipped back into the also-rans now.

    Michael Bloomberg unravelled the moment the candidate rather than his adverts got scrutinised. The only thing he's got going for him is his money. That now doesn't look likely to be enough.
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    FF43 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    nichomar said:

    How will leaving the transition period on WTO rules fair in a global recession?

    Just fine because we'll have the 𝐀𝐔𝐒𝐓𝐑𝐀𝐋𝐈𝐀 𝐃𝐄𝐀𝐋!
    Great isn't it? Austalia trades just fine and isn't some apocalyptic wasteland.

    Calling it the Australia deal puts into context that its not awful as people make out pretending we'll be like North Korea etc
    Why not just call it the WTO No deal deal rather than try to make up stuff to pretend you have actually done something. Bunch of liars.
    Yup. Australia already trades with the EU on better than WTO terms, it has agreed and will shortly implement a framework with the EU that goes well beyond those those and includes commitments this government has rejected. It is currently negotiating a full FTA. Australia doesn't want to trade with the EU on "Australia Rules"

    The interesting thing is why Australia is the only foreign country Brexiteers approve of. Presumably because it is (perceived) white, English speaking and was rightfully a colony. Canada refuses to play along with the Brexiteer rhetoric and so is ostracised at the moment.
    And we don't want Aussie Rules as our first choice, it is our fallback option, our safety net so to speak.

    Our first choice is termed Canada style which rather makes a mockery of your ludicrous second paragraph.

    The advantage of Aussie Rules trade is that it doesn't require EU consent to make it happen. So we're saying we can agree a Canada style deal if they co-operate but if they don't we know what our Plan B is. The lack of a credible Plan B for May was her downfall.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,731

    Pulpstar said:

    Can anyone make the case for Bloomberg or Buttigieg to me at current prices ?

    I'm not going to try. I feel slightly sorry for Pete Buttigieg because he would have had a lot more momentum from Iowa if the count hadn't been completely screwed up. But he failed to establish himself as the leading moderate and he's slipped back into the also-rans now.

    Michael Bloomberg unravelled the moment the candidate rather than his adverts got scrutinised. The only thing he's got going for him is his money. That now doesn't look likely to be enough.
    There is the edge case of all the candidates becoming infected with coronavirus.
    Pete's odds would look pretty good in those circumstances.
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,363

    I must be the only person buying stocks at the moment..

    who would you like to put into them?
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,220
    DavidL said:

    I think he's right about this. I also wonder if Hunt might be persuaded to come back to be the Virus czar. He seemed to be at important meetings the other day and interdepartmental organisation is going to be important here.
    Absolutely right. Ministers’ petulant refusal to appear on the BBCis now risks being negligent and dangerous.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758
    Oh for those innocent days when Brexit was going to crash the economy and stock markets and we were all going to die because there was no food.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited February 2020
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress

    Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem

    So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly

    Nandy is a republican and opposes Trident and a complete lightweight, as a Tory she would be almost as good as Long Bailey for me
    You are unwise to dismiss Lisa Nandy - she would hold Boris to account far better than Starmer
    Rubbish, she is a complete lightweight and Boris would trounce her, Starmer was the ex DPP and far more forensic
    You are so wrong on this
    No I am right, having watched Nandy I wouldn't put her in contention to lead Epping Council let alone the country she is a complete lightweight.

    Starmer also has a +5% rating with the public not -1% like Nandy or -25% like Long Bailey

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/low-public-awareness-all-labour-leadership-candidates-although-keir-starmer-starting-stronger
    No you are wrong as you are quite often.

    We therefore disagree
    No I am right and the evidence as I linked to supports me.

    You came round to my view on Boris eventually if I recall too
    Parroting opinion polls does not make you right. The difference between +5 and -1 on a hypothetical like this is meaningless fluff.

    And I backed Boris too - but didn't have your track record of backing JRM, Biden and a Corbyn recovery in Scotland so I'm counting that as a win.
    I never backed JRM just said he was a contender, you were certainly not pro Boris before I was but often quite pro Hunt if I recall. Biden is going to win SC big on Saturday and is now back in contention in national polls (anyway I said Sanders would still likely be nominee but Biden better for the general) and Corbyn gained 6 seats in Scotland in 2017 too.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1233290092061634560?s=20


    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1233253863635005440?s=20
    So I don't need any pontificating from you thankyou very much
    You recall wrong.

    6 seats in Scotland was now a Corbyn led recovery, it was a result of the SNP fallback from their high water mark, the Tories gained 12 seats.
  • Options
    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,900
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress

    Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem

    So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly

    Nandy is a republican and opposes Trident and a complete lightweight, as a Tory she would be almost as good as Long Bailey for me
    You are unwise to dismiss Lisa Nandy - she would hold Boris to account far better than Starmer
    Rubbish, she is a complete lightweight and Boris would trounce her, Starmer was the ex DPP and far more forensic
    They said the same about the barrister Michael Howard QC MP and it did not help him against Blair. Boris's blustering style might come across as bullying a woman LotO, be that Lisa Nandy or Rebecca Long-Bailey. I doubt we shall find out.

    Howard often bested Blair actually and gained 32 seats at the 2005 general election and might well have won most seats in 2010 against Brown had he stayed leader
    Corporal Jones could have gained 32 seats for the Tories in 2005.
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    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can anyone make the case for Bloomberg or Buttigieg to me at current prices ?

    I'm not going to try. I feel slightly sorry for Pete Buttigieg because he would have had a lot more momentum from Iowa if the count hadn't been completely screwed up. But he failed to establish himself as the leading moderate and he's slipped back into the also-rans now.

    Michael Bloomberg unravelled the moment the candidate rather than his adverts got scrutinised. The only thing he's got going for him is his money. That now doesn't look likely to be enough.
    There is the edge case of all the candidates becoming infected with coronavirus.
    Pete's odds would look pretty good in those circumstances.
    What probability do you ascribe to that?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,731
    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    I think he's right about this. I also wonder if Hunt might be persuaded to come back to be the Virus czar. He seemed to be at important meetings the other day and interdepartmental organisation is going to be important here.
    Absolutely right. Ministers’ petulant refusal to appear on the BBCis now risks being negligent and dangerous.
    It is utterly pathetic from a government which professes a desire to 'reunite' the country.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,220
    kamski said:

    malcolmg said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    nichomar said:

    How will leaving the transition period on WTO rules fair in a global recession?

    Just fine because we'll have the 𝐀𝐔𝐒𝐓𝐑𝐀𝐋𝐈𝐀 𝐃𝐄𝐀𝐋!
    Great isn't it? Austalia trades just fine and isn't some apocalyptic wasteland.

    Calling it the Australia deal puts into context that its not awful as people make out pretending we'll be like North Korea etc
    Why not just call it the WTO No deal deal rather than try to make up stuff to pretend you have actually done something. Bunch of liars.
    It's the North Korea deal. Leavers haven't actually identified any area where they can reach agreement with the EU on terms that the EU would accept. It's a visceral hatred of the EU.

    When they start looking at how WTO terms work, they'll decide that those are altogether too EU-friendly and agitate to leave that too.
    Certainly abiding by wto rules involves an unacceptable loss of sovereignty.
    Or if you're a lexiter then it's obvious the wto is just a capitalist club designed to prevent countries from implementing socialism.
    All trade agreements involve a loss of sovereignty.

    We could bet on which will come first: a vaccine for coronavirus or the penny dropping with Brexiteers on this.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,343
    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    I think he's right about this. I also wonder if Hunt might be persuaded to come back to be the Virus czar. He seemed to be at important meetings the other day and interdepartmental organisation is going to be important here.
    Absolutely right. Ministers’ petulant refusal to appear on the BBCis now risks being negligent and dangerous.
    Is it the BBC generally, I thought it was just the Today program. Which frankly isn't missing non answers from Ministers very much. But whoever is fronting this needs to get the public messaging right and I think Hunt would be a good choice.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,731

    DavidL said:

    I must be the only person buying stocks at the moment..

    Err, no you're not. It is one of the Stock market illusions aided by the media. For every seller there is a buyer and the same number of shares at the end of the day as there was at the start.
    Well, quite. And price balances it out.

    It would have been more accurate to say I’m the only one (on here) willing to talk about buying stock.
    'When the blood is running in the streets' .. ie possibly not quite yet.
    But you're thinking along the right lines.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    Warren's ris

    Pulpstar said:

    Can anyone make the case for Bloomberg or Buttigieg to me at current prices ?

    I'm not going to try. I feel slightly sorry for Pete Buttigieg because he would have had a lot more momentum from Iowa if the count hadn't been completely screwed up. But he failed to establish himself as the leading moderate and he's slipped back into the also-rans now.

    Michael Bloomberg unravelled the moment the candidate rather than his adverts got scrutinised. The only thing he's got going for him is his money. That now doesn't look likely to be enough.
    Minds seem to be being focussed for Democrats that definitely don't want Sanders. It's likely Biden.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,731
    edited February 2020

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can anyone make the case for Bloomberg or Buttigieg to me at current prices ?

    I'm not going to try. I feel slightly sorry for Pete Buttigieg because he would have had a lot more momentum from Iowa if the count hadn't been completely screwed up. But he failed to establish himself as the leading moderate and he's slipped back into the also-rans now.

    Michael Bloomberg unravelled the moment the candidate rather than his adverts got scrutinised. The only thing he's got going for him is his money. That now doesn't look likely to be enough.
    There is the edge case of all the candidates becoming infected with coronavirus.
    Pete's odds would look pretty good in those circumstances.
    What probability do you ascribe to that?
    Low.
    In the face of a major US outbreak, I think any public appearances would dry up very quickly.

    But greater than zero.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The coming presidential election will be hard to call? Why? Turnout.

    In 2018 us midterm turnout was 49.3%. An unbelievable increase on 2014. Just enormous.

    If the same thing happens between 2016 and 2020 then things get off the hook.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The mid-term turnout was so large some people are struggling to accept it still.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,220
    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    I think he's right about this. I also wonder if Hunt might be persuaded to come back to be the Virus czar. He seemed to be at important meetings the other day and interdepartmental organisation is going to be important here.
    Absolutely right. Ministers’ petulant refusal to appear on the BBCis now risks being negligent and dangerous.
    Is it the BBC generally, I thought it was just the Today program. Which frankly isn't missing non answers from Ministers very much. But whoever is fronting this needs to get the public messaging right and I think Hunt would be a good choice.
    They’re not appearing on Newsnignt or WATO or the 5 pm news programme on Radio 4, as far as I can tell.

    This is potentially serious and a government which puts its ego above the need to use all possible means of communication about this issue is providing another example of its essential frivolity and unseriousness.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,731

    malcolmg said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    nichomar said:

    How will leaving the transition period on WTO rules fair in a global recession?

    Just fine because we'll have the 𝐀𝐔𝐒𝐓𝐑𝐀𝐋𝐈𝐀 𝐃𝐄𝐀𝐋!
    Great isn't it? Austalia trades just fine and isn't some apocalyptic wasteland.

    Calling it the Australia deal puts into context that its not awful as people make out pretending we'll be like North Korea etc
    Why not just call it the WTO No deal deal rather than try to make up stuff to pretend you have actually done something. Bunch of liars.
    Because context matters. People have drawn a panic about WTO or "No Deal" like its the end of the frigging world. Its not. Calling it "Australian style trade" (which is the term I've seen used more than "Australia deal" and is entirely accurate) puts WTO into context.

    There's a lot of similarities between the paranoia and overreactions over COVID and WTO. Its a new and exotic change but unlikely to actually lead to much in the end and we'll probably look back and wiser heads will wonder what all the fuss was about. Yes its got the
    Tell that to our motor industry.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,731
    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    I think he's right about this. I also wonder if Hunt might be persuaded to come back to be the Virus czar. He seemed to be at important meetings the other day and interdepartmental organisation is going to be important here.
    Absolutely right. Ministers’ petulant refusal to appear on the BBCis now risks being negligent and dangerous.
    Is it the BBC generally, I thought it was just the Today program. Which frankly isn't missing non answers from Ministers very much. But whoever is fronting this needs to get the public messaging right and I think Hunt would be a good choice.
    They’re not appearing on Newsnignt or WATO or the 5 pm news programme on Radio 4, as far as I can tell.

    This is potentially serious and a government which puts its ego above the need to use all possible means of communication about this issue is providing another example of its essential frivolity and unseriousness.
    One might add that it looks like an attempt to impose editorial control by the back door.
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited February 2020
    Alistair said:

    The coming presidential election will be hard to call? Why? Turnout.

    In 2018 us midterm turnout was 49.3%. An unbelievable increase on 2014. Just enormous.

    If the same thing happens between 2016 and 2020 then things get off the hook.

    And not only that, there's four reasons for potential vast turnout by historic standards - Trump has a huge and emotionally committed campaigning base, and a large, but not clearly quantifiable number of Never-Trumpers, and Sanders may have show himself to have exactly the same two. If Biden is chosen I think turnout may be lower across the board, both from the left and the right, leading to a different kind of election.
This discussion has been closed.