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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the South Carolina betting Bernie moves from a 57.5% chance
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the South Carolina betting Bernie moves from a 57.5% chance to a 14% one in less than 5 days
With the South Carolina primary taking place on Saturday there have been three new polls today all of them showing ex-VP Joe Biden with a clear lead. One poll has him 20% ahead of Bernie Sanders, another one 16% while a final one has the gap just at 4%
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Super Tuesday will really shake out his odds and Bloomberg’s still further.
Dems finally getting a grip of the need to beat Trump, not live in Sander's Narnia?
Turkey is using the refugee threat to bring the European members of NATO into backing it in its confrontation in Syria. This refugee threat has turned up again hours after an airstrike killed about 20 Turkish troops in Idlib in Syria. Erdogan is due to address the nation at 1.30am local time apparently.
Turkey is threatening all kinds of retaliation but it wants NATO cover at least politically. Its been asking for such support for weeks now but this heavy death toll in a single incident is going to make those calls louder. Its also going to put Turkey on the spot to put up or shut up and its equally as possible they will wimp out by throwing up some artillery for a bit rather than retaliate heavily and to effect.
Virus news sweeps across US in next few days, stocks crashing etc etc.
A nation turns its lonely eyes to sense and security and Biden?
https://twitter.com/RBReich/status/1233131148340940800
South Carolina will be interesting.
Are you here all week?
https://twitter.com/RBReich/status/1233113404400754689
I expect him to undershoot his best polling.
But I think Romney is biding his time. Setting himself up to rescue the GOP from the car crash of the second term of Trump.
Haley vs Romney GOP primary 2024?
https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/
No doubt someone, whether on the Democratic ticket, a GOP rebellion ticket or even a Bloomberg 3rd party ticket should it come about will have knocked on Mattis' door.
But Romney does have enough popularity in Utar to be in the lead there in presidential election, such that media will have to give him some attention. unlike other 3rd party candadits.
But he's also a very fit 72. He regularly skis, and skis well.
Maybe significant for the media narrative, if the media paid attention to local government by-election.
https://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/02/sherrod-brown-doesnt-rule-out-accepting-democratic-nomination-at-contested-convention.html
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/485064-centrist-democrats-insist-sanders-would-need-delegate-majority-to-win
Dem nom:
Sanders 2
Biden 4.8
Bloomberg 6
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128161111
In this scenario, the choice between BIden and Sanders may become more ideological, and if it is that could have potentially huge reverberations for the unity of the democratic party. To a certain extent it would be much better for the democratic establishment if either Sanders or Biden was very clearly ahead, as a runner against Trump, or if one of them does become that in future.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1233172824921165826?s=20
There's quite a few in the Democrat establishment, but not all, who would be happier if Super Tuesday brings clarity either way, than if Biden does unexpectedly but inconclusively well. Picking either Sanders or BIden on what appears to be ideological grounds , could either spark a massive backlash from the centrist establishment democrats, or Sanders' new grassroots movement.
The appearance of pragmatism based purely on very clear voting patterns would just about hold things together, on the other hand.
https://twitter.com/JakeDaveWebster/status/1233185231072444416?s=20
However, in general I am quite prone to normalcy bias, so I've plan for the worst: that I'll have to feed myself, my diabetic pneumonia prone mother and younger sister for a month on 1500kcals/day/person. If quarantine is any longer than that I'll have to venture out. If (and probably when) the food supplies are not needed they'll go to the food back. And the moment the virus looks to have taken hold in the UK I'll be driving back.
Politicians meet lots of people.
20,000 is assuming 1% get infected, and 4% of them die.
Yeah I suppose so, I'm just struggling to get to terms with the fact that something really quite bad, of the scale we normally see in films, might be about to happen. The high end expert reasonable worst case of up to 70% getting it implies near enough 2-3 million UK deaths, which as Mr Meeks put it, will make it a serious before/after event like 9/11. I guess by this time next week we'll have a pretty good idea of where Europe is at.
256 new cases of coronavirus in South Korea, they've now topped 2,000 and doubled in about 2 days.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8053317/Bill-Clinton-fretting-Bernie-Obama-pitches-unified-support.html
At this point you're way beyond the kind of numbers that the hospitals can help with, so the mortality rate gets worse not better.
It is the latest phenomenon to fulfil our weird and growing appetite for doom
Ross Clark" (£)
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2020/02/the-most-dangerous-thing-about-coronavirus-is-the-hysteria/
MoT.
The fact is well over 90% of those who get coronavirus will recover from it, it is no deadlier than the risk from most surgery
Funnily enough, this is another article put out by the spectator:
https://twitter.com/Spectator_LIFE/status/1233083372601106432
I'll take the Doctor's opinion over the clueless journalist.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1233208695099666433?s=20
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1233218304271167489?s=20
Medical professionals nearly always focus on the scientific and medical aspects of systems risks, but very rarely look as social behaviours beyond the epidemiological model. While the doctor is no doubt correct in his assessment of the risks relevant to his own expertise, it is also true that our response to irrational risks is often more damaging than the original hazard.
For example, in the evacuations from the Fukushima reactor explosions, it was subsequently assessed that more people died from the evacuation (from eg not having access to medications left behind in the rush to leave) than would have died from the radiation had they stayed.
So I'd rather compliment the Spectator on reporting on two equally valid aspects of the risks.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1233256774964273152?s=20
Universities need to lose 'sense of entitlement'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-51662983
One of my lecturers had a drawing of Clarke on his door. The caption was, ‘Some people are paid by the state, and contribute nothing to society...
...but enough of me.’
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-specified-countries-and-areas/covid-19-specified-countries-and-areas-with-implications-for-returning-travellers-or-visitors-arriving-in-the-uk
https://mashable.com/article/twitch-fake-copyright-claim-democratic-debate/
This might be significant if it is found that the firm that made the claims is linked to one of the other candidates. Or not.
It's not necessarily the human toll that will be the biggest wipeout but the hammering of the global economy. We have never been so exposed to global markets and everything is being affected. I could see the stock markets losing another 25% before they bottom out, and even that may be optimistic.
And Malcom McAngry calling you a 'snowflake' would be hilarious if it didn't show what a shrivelled old Scottish prune he is. Ignore the idiot. He will eat his words before too long.
Alastair, I apologised to Eadric for mocking your doomsday thread the other day and I now do so to you. Sadly, I think you too are being proven right.
https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2696066#Comment_2696066
I've topped up.
https://twitter.com/casinoroyalepb/status/1220091232518578181?s=19