For all the excitement about stock market corrections, I have to say I don’t think we’ve seen anything yet. Sure, Apple has lost 15% since this began. But so frothy were markets in 2020 so far, all that’s done is take it back to its price in mid Dec 2019.
If we have a situation where schools close in Europe and America as well, on top of cancellation of basically all business travel and new hiring, who knows where this goes.
S&P has retraced back to July 2019 but is still 18% above its Dec 2018 trough. That looks like the obvious short term target to me. Overall I think it’s easy peasy to imagine a 30-40% further decline from here but potentially with an overshoot that is even worse.
We’ll see some big households names fail from this before it’s done. Airlines, German & Detroit auto, and no doubt a Silicon Valley unicorn or two as well.
Huge mistakes have been made with Corona. The WHO has been shown to be not fit for purpose.
I'm extremely disappointed by our response. Whilst I think they think they are doing a good job because cases are low so far, they have not invested enough in getting people ready. The British public are not ready for this culturally or socially.
PHE should have been cranking up the information far sooner. Most people I speak to are totally ignorant. Most of the highly educated people on here were wilfully blind for weeks.
In other news, has anyone caught Chris Witty's comments? They will cancel everything eventually but the timing is crucial. Do it as early as you can and prepare for a long lock down.
We've done nearly 8,000 tests and found 16 infections. The US has done under 150 tests and found 60 infections. While no doubt there are lessons to be learned, so far we're doing ok.
Huge mistakes have been made with Corona. The WHO has been shown to be not fit for purpose.
I'm extremely disappointed by our response. Whilst I think they think they are doing a good job because cases are low so far, they have not invested enough in getting people ready. The British public are not ready for this culturally or socially.
PHE should have been cranking up the information far sooner. Most people I speak to are totally ignorant. Most of the highly educated people on here were wilfully blind for weeks.
In other news, has anyone caught Chris Witty's comments? They will cancel everything eventually but the timing is crucial. Do it as early as you can and prepare for a long lock down.
Emergency planning is done at a local level. Every LA, nhs trust, and emergency services have established protocols and chains of command.
Amongst other things, that analysis is a very fine example of scientific writing in plain but lucid English prose, entirely accessible to the intelligent layman.
It also suggests he knows whereof he speaks. We cannot rely on warmer skies.
Yep. We are not out of the woods yet, by a long stretch.
I fear we are just about to go into the woods
Only people in their late 80s and 90s will have any memory of living through this kind of massive level crisis.
Well, it’s not nailed on yet. But it is now highly possible. A crisis equivalent to a serious war (not an Iraq misjudgment).
If nothing else, it will give us perspective
I don't think you should rein back now that you are being proven right. This is probably going to be far worse than those apparently bleak posts you put up a week ago.
It's not necessarily the human toll that will be the biggest wipeout but the hammering of the global economy. We have never been so exposed to global markets and everything is being affected. I could see the stock markets losing another 25% before they bottom out, and even that may be optimistic.
And Malcom McAngry calling you a 'snowflake' would be hilarious if it didn't show what a shrivelled old Scottish prune he is. Ignore the idiot. He will eat his words before too long.
Alastair, I apologised to Eadric for mocking your doomsday thread the other day and I now do so to you. Sadly, I think you too are being proven right.
You and I were discussing this on 27th Jan, well before eadric first posted.
Huge mistakes have been made with Corona. The WHO has been shown to be not fit for purpose.
I'm extremely disappointed by our response. Whilst I think they think they are doing a good job because cases are low so far, they have not invested enough in getting people ready. The British public are not ready for this culturally or socially.
PHE should have been cranking up the information far sooner. Most people I speak to are totally ignorant. Most of the highly educated people on here were wilfully blind for weeks.
In other news, has anyone caught Chris Witty's comments? They will cancel everything eventually but the timing is crucial. Do it as early as you can and prepare for a long lock down.
Amongst other things, that analysis is a very fine example of scientific writing in plain but lucid English prose, entirely accessible to the intelligent layman.
It also suggests he knows whereof he speaks. We cannot rely on warmer skies.
Yep. We are not out of the woods yet, by a long stretch.
I fear we are just about to go into the woods
Only people in their late 80s and 90s will have any memory of living through this kind of massive level crisis.
Well, it’s not nailed on yet. But it is now highly possible. A crisis equivalent to a serious war (not an Iraq misjudgment).
If nothing else, it will give us perspective
I don't think you should rein back now that you are being proven right. This is probably going to be far worse than those apparently bleak posts you put up a week ago.
It's not necessarily the human toll that will be the biggest wipeout but the hammering of the global economy. We have never been so exposed to global markets and everything is being affected. I could see the stock markets losing another 25% before they bottom out, and even that may be optimistic.
And Malcom McAngry calling you a 'snowflake' would be hilarious if it didn't show what a shrivelled old Scottish prune he is. Ignore the idiot. He will eat his words before too long.
Alastair, I apologised to Eadric for mocking your doomsday thread the other day and I now do so to you. Sadly, I think you too are being proven right.
You and I were discussing this on 27th Jan, well before eadric first posted.
We've done nearly 8,000 tests and found 16 infections. The US has done under 150 tests and found 60 infections. While no doubt there are lessons to be learned, so far we're doing ok.
Yes I think the PHE are believing their own propaganda. A rolling count of tests, starting from January is not informative. It's good that we are doing lots of testing but who cares about quantifying the denominator?
In fact it is merely proving the point I am making. It has totally fooled the public into thinking the risk is low - oh look at all these tests we have done and we only have 8 or 9 positive.
We've done nearly 8,000 tests and found 16 infections. The US has done under 150 tests and found 60 infections. While no doubt there are lessons to be learned, so far we're doing ok.
Controversial opinion.... US healthcare systems are so over resourced, inefficient and have excess capacity that they’ll cope better than the nhs, which works with hardly any overhead capabilities in a pandemic.
Amongst other things, that analysis is a very fine example of scientific writing in plain but lucid English prose, entirely accessible to the intelligent layman.
It also suggests he knows whereof he speaks. We cannot rely on warmer skies.
Yep. We are not out of the woods yet, by a long stretch.
I fear we are just about to go into the woods
Only people in their late 80s and 90s will have any memory of living through this kind of massive level crisis.
Well, it’s not nailed on yet. But it is now highly possible. A crisis equivalent to a serious war (not an Iraq misjudgment).
If nothing else, it will give us perspective
I don't think you should rein back now that you are being proven right. This is probably going to be far worse than those apparently bleak posts you put up a week ago.
It's not necessarily the human toll that will be the biggest wipeout but the hammering of the global economy. We have never been so exposed to global markets and everything is being affected. I could see the stock markets losing another 25% before they bottom out, and even that may be optimistic.
And Malcom McAngry calling you a 'snowflake' would be hilarious if it didn't show what a shrivelled old Scottish prune he is. Ignore the idiot. He will eat his words before too long.
Alastair, I apologised to Eadric for mocking your doomsday thread the other day and I now do so to you. Sadly, I think you too are being proven right.
You and I were discussing this on 27th Jan, well before eadric first posted.
Huge mistakes have been made with Corona. The WHO has been shown to be not fit for purpose.
I'm extremely disappointed by our response. Whilst I think they think they are doing a good job because cases are low so far, they have not invested enough in getting people ready. The British public are not ready for this culturally or socially.
PHE should have been cranking up the information far sooner. Most people I speak to are totally ignorant. Most of the highly educated people on here were wilfully blind for weeks.
In other news, has anyone caught Chris Witty's comments? They will cancel everything eventually but the timing is crucial. Do it as early as you can and prepare for a long lock down.
Agreed.
Unfortunately I think it goes a long way back to the 'Doctor knows best' mentality that even Harold Shipman didn't manage to destroy.
As for the F.O. that supercilious attitude oozes out of every pore of their being.
I've been on the receiving end of the latter's crap old colonial attitudes and it's not funny. If Cummings wants to shake up a couple of institutions with my support, he could start with PHE and the F.O.
Amongst other things, that analysis is a very fine example of scientific writing in plain but lucid English prose, entirely accessible to the intelligent layman.
It also suggests he knows whereof he speaks. We cannot rely on warmer skies.
Yep. We are not out of the woods yet, by a long stretch.
I fear we are just about to go into the woods
Only people in their late 80s and 90s will have any memory of living through this kind of massive level crisis.
Well, it’s not nailed on yet. But it is now highly possible. A crisis equivalent to a serious war (not an Iraq misjudgment).
If nothing else, it will give us perspective
I don't think you should rein back now that you are being proven right. This is probably going to be far worse than those apparently bleak posts you put up a week ago.
It's not necessarily the human toll that will be the biggest wipeout but the hammering of the global economy. We have never been so exposed to global markets and everything is being affected. I could see the stock markets losing another 25% before they bottom out, and even that may be optimistic.
And Malcom McAngry calling you a 'snowflake' would be hilarious if it didn't show what a shrivelled old Scottish prune he is. Ignore the idiot. He will eat his words before too long.
Alastair, I apologised to Eadric for mocking your doomsday thread the other day and I now do so to you. Sadly, I think you too are being proven right.
You and I were discussing this on 27th Jan, well before eadric first posted.
Amongst other things, that analysis is a very fine example of scientific writing in plain but lucid English prose, entirely accessible to the intelligent layman.
It also suggests he knows whereof he speaks. We cannot rely on warmer skies.
Yep. We are not out of the woods yet, by a long stretch.
I fear we are just about to go into the woods
Only people in their late 80s and 90s will have any memory of living through this kind of massive level crisis.
Well, it’s not nailed on yet. But it is now highly possible. A crisis equivalent to a serious war (not an Iraq misjudgment).
If nothing else, it will give us perspective
I don't think you should rein back now that you are being proven right. This is probably going to be far worse than those apparently bleak posts you put up a week ago.
It's not necessarily the human toll that will be the biggest wipeout but the hammering of the global economy. We have never been so exposed to global markets and everything is being affected. I could see the stock markets losing another 25% before they bottom out, and even that may be optimistic.
And Malcom McAngry calling you a 'snowflake' would be hilarious if it didn't show what a shrivelled old Scottish prune he is. Ignore the idiot. He will eat his words before too long.
Alastair, I apologised to Eadric for mocking your doomsday thread the other day and I now do so to you. Sadly, I think you too are being proven right.
LOL Eadric's snowflake partner has awoken, posting the usual drivel, assuming they are not just the same person doing shifts.
Why exactly would those 900,000, unless they're combatants, want to escape the regime, given that every other place that has come back under their control has gone from Islamist hell hole to happier and freer? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBa8xJyO_xI&app=desktop
Viral-Induced Enhanced Disease Illness https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2018.02991/full Understanding immune responses to viral infections is crucial to progress in the quest for effective infection prevention and control. The host immunity involves various mechanisms to combat viral infections. Under certain circumstances, a viral infection or vaccination may result in a subverted immune system, which may lead to an exacerbated illness. Clinical evidence of enhanced illness by preexisting antibodies from vaccination, infection or maternal passive immunity is available for several viruses and is presumptively proposed for other viruses. Multiple mechanisms have been proposed to explain this phenomenon....
So, having looked far and wide for an alternative to Sanders without success, having been underwhelmed by the untested realities of Bloomberg despite his wall of money, the moderate Dems are heading back to plan A which is Biden.
Do they really think that the multitude of reasons that they looked at options B, C, D etc, the evident senility, the almost incomprehensible speaking style, the inappropriate hugs and touching, the inability to relate to anything post about 2000, the dodgy son and whiff of corruption, etc etc have been forgotten? This seems a cry of despair to me. Sanders will win the nomination by default. He is not best placed to win against Trump but some of the posts on this very thread suggest Trump is moving on from incompetence and dishonesty to being completely demented so anything is possible in November.
Leftie in Grauniad struggles with concept that Uncle Tom British Indians could possibly vote Conservative (let alone occupy three top Cabinet posts) - critiqued in thread:
Leftie in Grauniad struggles with concept that Uncle Tom British Indians could possibly vote Conservative (let alone occupy three top Cabinet posts) - critiqued in thread:
Amongst other things, that analysis is a very fine example of scientific writing in plain but lucid English prose, entirely accessible to the intelligent layman.
It also suggests he knows whereof he speaks. We cannot rely on warmer skies.
Yep. We are not out of the woods yet, by a long stretch.
I fear we are just about to go into the woods
Only people in their late 80s and 90s will have any memory of living through this kind of massive level crisis.
Well, it’s not nailed on yet. But it is now highly possible. A crisis equivalent to a serious war (not an Iraq misjudgment).
If nothing else, it will give us perspective
I don't think you should rein back now that you are being proven right. This is probably going to be far worse than those apparently bleak posts you put up a week ago.
It's not necessarily the human toll that will be the biggest wipeout but the hammering of the global economy. We have never been so exposed to global markets and everything is being affected. I could see the stock markets losing another 25% before they bottom out, and even that may be optimistic.
And Malcom McAngry calling you a 'snowflake' would be hilarious if it didn't show what a shrivelled old Scottish prune he is. Ignore the idiot. He will eat his words before too long.
Alastair, I apologised to Eadric for mocking your doomsday thread the other day and I now do so to you. Sadly, I think you too are being proven right.
LOL Eadric's snowflake partner has awoken, posting the usual drivel, assuming they are not just the same person doing shifts.
Sean’s problem is that he only reads the headlines, then runs screaming into the street.
The paper he attached in the OP is worth a read; it doesn’t contain anything like the certainty of Sean’s summary. Indeed it concedes transmission will likely be slower in the summer. It also says that as a ‘new’ virus, transmission may not drop away as fast in the summer as happens with an established virus (but is somewhat hazy as to why, except for the much larger pool of people with no immunity). Most importantly, all of its conclusions are hedged by the uncertainty and qualifications that any sensible commentator would make.
This doesn’t rule out a summer SeanT apocalypse, but doesn’t confirm one either.
Leftie in Grauniad struggles with concept that Uncle Tom British Indians could possibly vote Conservative (let alone occupy three top Cabinet posts) - critiqued in thread:
If I can distract everyone from the world-ending plague for a moment, Baldur's Gate 3 is looking pretty good.
Surprised that it might be out at the end of this year, according to some. My own view was something like 2021-2022 would be likelier. Might still be, of course, but it's going to be next gen.
Leftie in Grauniad struggles with concept that Uncle Tom British Indians could possibly vote Conservative (let alone occupy three top Cabinet posts) - critiqued in thread:
It doesn't surprise me. Indian culture is quite entrepreneurial, has a strong work ethic, but also caste ridden, and poor people deserve what they get because karma.
For all the excitement about stock market corrections, I have to say I don’t think we’ve seen anything yet. Sure, Apple has lost 15% since this began. But so frothy were markets in 2020 so far, all that’s done is take it back to its price in mid Dec 2019.
If we have a situation where schools close in Europe and America as well, on top of cancellation of basically all business travel and new hiring, who knows where this goes.
S&P has retraced back to July 2019 but is still 18% above its Dec 2018 trough. That looks like the obvious short term target to me. Overall I think it’s easy peasy to imagine a 30-40% further decline from here but potentially with an overshoot that is even worse.
We’ll see some big households names fail from this before it’s done. Airlines, German & Detroit auto, and no doubt a Silicon Valley unicorn or two as well.
The reason I have mostly been trading the Dow is that the US clearly had further to fall, having been pumped up by the Trump bubble, whereas the FTSE has been depressed by Brexit.
We've done nearly 8,000 tests and found 16 infections. The US has done under 150 tests and found 60 infections. While no doubt there are lessons to be learned, so far we're doing ok.
Controversial opinion.... US healthcare systems are so over resourced, inefficient and have excess capacity that they’ll cope better than the nhs, which works with hardly any overhead capabilities in a pandemic.
Certainly many more ICU beds, for those who can afford them.
Well, it’s not nailed on yet. But it is now highly possible. A crisis equivalent to a serious war (not an Iraq misjudgment).
If nothing else, it will give us perspective
I don't think you should rein back now that you are being proven right. This is probably going to be far worse than those apparently bleak posts you put up a week ago.
It's not necessarily the human toll that will be the biggest wipeout but the hammering of the global economy. We have never been so exposed to global markets and everything is being affected. I could see the stock markets losing another 25% before they bottom out, and even that may be optimistic.
And Malcom McAngry calling you a 'snowflake' would be hilarious if it didn't show what a shrivelled old Scottish prune he is. Ignore the idiot. He will eat his words before too long.
Alastair, I apologised to Eadric for mocking your doomsday thread the other day and I now do so to you. Sadly, I think you too are being proven right.
LOL Eadric's snowflake partner has awoken, posting the usual drivel, assuming they are not just the same person doing shifts.
Sean’s problem is that he only reads the headlines, then runs screaming into the street.
The paper he attached in the OP is worth a read; it doesn’t contain anything like the certainty of Sean’s summary. Indeed it concedes transmission will likely be slower in the summer. It also says that as a ‘new’ virus, transmission may not drop away as fast in the summer as happens with an established virus (but is somewhat hazy as to why, except for the much larger pool of people with no immunity). Most importantly, all of its conclusions are hedged by the uncertainty and qualifications that any sensible commentator would make.
This doesn’t rule out a summer SeanT apocalypse, but doesn’t confirm one either.
I thought that that was a very sensible piece which was really pointing out that Trump's blithe assumption that this would all go away in the summer time has no proper scientific basis. Although certain factors in the summer reduce contagion (such as the schools being closed) the evidence that this has a major effect on viruses in general and in particular new viruses with no herd immunity is weak.
It is far from a "we're all doomed" piece, its a don't be complacent or stupid piece. Probably a bit optimistic in Trump's case.
We've done nearly 8,000 tests and found 16 infections. The US has done under 150 tests and found 60 infections. While no doubt there are lessons to be learned, so far we're doing ok.
Yes I think the PHE are believing their own propaganda. A rolling count of tests, starting from January is not informative. It's good that we are doing lots of testing but who cares about quantifying the denominator?
In fact it is merely proving the point I am making. It has totally fooled the public into thinking the risk is low - oh look at all these tests we have done and we only have 8 or 9 positive.
No, so far so good from PHE, despite the substantial budget cuts over the last decade, and being shunted to local authorities with perpetual reorganisation.
I remember a conversation with a school friend in the mid eighties.
Q: "Foxy, how much of a risk to hetero-sexuals is this new AIDS thing?"
A: "Not much at present, it is pretty rare at present, but may well spread to become a risk"
Q: "So you are saying that I should screw around as much as possible in the next year before the opportunity goes?"
True story. My friend is still alive working as a boiler fitter, and no AIDS. It was a correct interpretation of the data!
We are in the early stage of Covid 19. We should remember how previous epidemic threats such as AIDS and BSE were contained, by mass education, changes in behaviour and later medical research.
I think society and economy will be quite disrupted this year, but the disease will be controllable.
How will leaving the transition period on WTO rules fair in a global recession?
We will have blue passports and a commemorative 50p coin, what more do we need.
Watching Boris PM do Brexit really does resemble an episode of 3-2-1, where the numptiest contestants have ridden their luck through the early knockout rounds and now seem hell bent on winning the bin.
How will leaving the transition period on WTO rules fair in a global recession?
You’re not believing in Brexit enough. Our new points-based system will keep Coronavirus our.
If you have Coronavirus you'll lose ten points?
You joke but in other countries points based systems health conditions can be points related. Having long term health conditions can prevent you getting a visa rather than free movement where you can be diagnosed with cancer for example, move here under free movement and get free NHS treatment you never contributed towards prior to moving.
Amongst other things, that analysis is a very fine example of scientific writing in plain but lucid English prose, entirely accessible to the intelligent layman.
It also suggests he knows whereof he speaks. We cannot rely on warmer skies.
Yep. We are not out of the woods yet, by a long stretch.
I fear we are just about to go into the woods
Only people in their late 80s and 90s will have any memory of living through this kind of massive level crisis.
Well, it’s not nailed on yet. But it is now highly possible. A crisis equivalent to a serious war (not an Iraq misjudgment).
If nothing else, it will give us perspective
I don't think you should rein back now that you are being proven right. This is probably going to be far worse than those apparently bleak posts you put up a week ago.
It's not necessarily the human toll that will be the biggest wipeout but the hammering of the global economy. We have never been so exposed to global markets and everything is being affected. I could see the stock markets losing another 25% before they bottom out, and even that may be optimistic.
And Malcom McAngry calling you a 'snowflake' would be hilarious if it didn't show what a shrivelled old Scottish prune he is. Ignore the idiot. He will eat his words before too long.
Alastair, I apologised to Eadric for mocking your doomsday thread the other day and I now do so to you. Sadly, I think you too are being proven right.
LOL Eadric's snowflake partner has awoken, posting the usual drivel, assuming they are not just the same person doing shifts.
Sean’s problem is that he only reads the headlines, then runs screaming into the street.
The paper he attached in the OP is worth a read; it doesn’t contain anything like the certainty of Sean’s summary. Indeed it concedes transmission will likely be slower in the summer. It also says that as a ‘new’ virus, transmission may not drop away as fast in the summer as happens with an established virus (but is somewhat hazy as to why, except for the much larger pool of people with no immunity). Most importantly, all of its conclusions are hedged by the uncertainty and qualifications that any sensible commentator would make.
This doesn’t rule out a summer SeanT apocalypse, but doesn’t confirm one either.
How will leaving the transition period on WTO rules fair in a global recession?
You’re not believing in Brexit enough. Our new points-based system will keep Coronavirus our.
If you have Coronavirus you'll lose ten points?
You joke but in other countries points based systems health conditions can be points related. Having long term health conditions can prevent you getting a visa rather than free movement where you can be diagnosed with cancer for example, move here under free movement and get free NHS treatment you never contributed towards prior to moving.
There is a usual residency test for such cases. Health tourism is largely a myth.
For all the excitement about stock market corrections, I have to say I don’t think we’ve seen anything yet. Sure, Apple has lost 15% since this began. But so frothy were markets in 2020 so far, all that’s done is take it back to its price in mid Dec 2019.
If we have a situation where schools close in Europe and America as well, on top of cancellation of basically all business travel and new hiring, who knows where this goes.
S&P has retraced back to July 2019 but is still 18% above its Dec 2018 trough. That looks like the obvious short term target to me. Overall I think it’s easy peasy to imagine a 30-40% further decline from here but potentially with an overshoot that is even worse.
We’ll see some big households names fail from this before it’s done. Airlines, German & Detroit auto, and no doubt a Silicon Valley unicorn or two as well.
The reason I have mostly been trading the Dow is that the US clearly had further to fall, having been pumped up by the Trump bubble, whereas the FTSE has been depressed by Brexit.
Yes, I think that correct. The Dow is just back to the end of 2019, which does tend to confirm a bubble since.
The FTSE is substantially made up of companies earning overseas though, the FTSE250 is perhaps more representative of the British economy, and could soon be oversold.
How will leaving the transition period on WTO rules fair in a global recession?
Not ideal but probably not a major impact and the disruption as we transition to WTO rules would get absorbed by the global recession before we then bounce back and grow strongly afterwards.
We've done nearly 8,000 tests and found 16 infections. The US has done under 150 tests and found 60 infections. While no doubt there are lessons to be learned, so far we're doing ok.
Yes I think the PHE are believing their own
No, so far so good from PHE, despite the substantial budget cuts over the last decade, and being shunted to local authorities with perpetual reorganisation.
I remember a conversation with a school friend in the mid eighties.
Q: "Foxy, how much of a risk to hetero-sexuals is this new AIDS thing?"
A: "Not much at present, it is pretty rare at present, but may well spread to become a risk"
Q: "So you are saying that I should screw around as much as possible in the next year before the opportunity goes?"
True story. My friend is still alive working as a boiler fitter, and no AIDS. It was a correct interpretation of the data!
We are in the early stage of Covid 19. We should remember how previous epidemic threats such as AIDS and BSE were contained, by mass education, changes in behaviour and later medical research.
I think society and economy will be quite disrupted this year, but the disease will be controllable.
Respectfully disagree. I don't think we can take people to 5 from 0 without going to 10. The difference between this and your examples is the speed of action. Days and weeks matter, not months and years.
The societies in East Asia have living memory of epidemics and so it is in their social norms to behave in useful ways. Compare and contrast with the Brits in Tenerife. That's the case study of behaviour we will see here.
I'll send that paper today by the way. If you want anything else behind a paywall just let me know.
Sean’s problem is that he only reads the headlines, then runs screaming into the street.
The paper he attached in the OP is worth a read; it doesn’t contain anything like the certainty of Sean’s summary. Indeed it concedes transmission will likely be slower in the summer. It also says that as a ‘new’ virus, transmission may not drop away as fast in the summer as happens with an established virus (but is somewhat hazy as to why, except for the much larger pool of people with no immunity). Most importantly, all of its conclusions are hedged by the uncertainty and qualifications that any sensible commentator would make.
This doesn’t rule out a summer SeanT apocalypse, but doesn’t confirm one either.
That's a very fair post.
It's going to be the same as flu then isn't it. It won't die out over the summer but as autumn and winter arrives it's going to start spreading again. And with no fixed starting point it could and will appear in clusters randomly
Sean’s problem is that he only reads the headlines, then runs screaming into the street.
The paper he attached in the OP is worth a read; it doesn’t contain anything like the certainty of Sean’s summary. Indeed it concedes transmission will likely be slower in the summer. It also says that as a ‘new’ virus, transmission may not drop away as fast in the summer as happens with an established virus (but is somewhat hazy as to why, except for the much larger pool of people with no immunity). Most importantly, all of its conclusions are hedged by the uncertainty and qualifications that any sensible commentator would make.
This doesn’t rule out a summer SeanT apocalypse, but doesn’t confirm one either.
That's a very fair post.
It's going to be the same as flu then isn't it. It won't die out over the summer but as autumn and winter arrives it's going to start spreading again. And with no fixed starting point it could and will appear in clusters randomly
Yes, the real crisis point (and further risk to financial markets) may well come in the autumn
I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress
Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem
So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly
For all the excitement about stock market corrections, I have to say I don’t think we’ve seen anything yet. Sure, Apple has lost 15% since this began. But so frothy were markets in 2020 so far, all that’s done is take it back to its price in mid Dec 2019.
If we have a situation where schools close in Europe and America as well, on top of cancellation of basically all business travel and new hiring, who knows where this goes.
S&P has retraced back to July 2019 but is still 18% above its Dec 2018 trough. That looks like the obvious short term target to me. Overall I think it’s easy peasy to imagine a 30-40% further decline from here but potentially with an overshoot that is even worse.
We’ll see some big households names fail from this before it’s done. Airlines, German & Detroit auto, and no doubt a Silicon Valley unicorn or two as well.
The reason I have mostly been trading the Dow is that the US clearly had further to fall, having been pumped up by the Trump bubble, whereas the FTSE has been depressed by Brexit.
Yes, I think that correct. The Dow is just back to the end of 2019, which does tend to confirm a bubble since.
The FTSE is substantially made up of companies earning overseas though, the FTSE250 is perhaps more representative of the British economy, and could soon be oversold.
Today I am being more cautious, particularly as the modest positions I took out to hold overnight have earned another £500.
One thing that is clear - from the minute by minute volatility and the lags on the trading platform - is that a lot more people are trying to play the market today than at the start of the week. There is bottom hunting going on. More players means more scope for panic, so I wouldn't discount a further plunge toward my short-term target of 24,000. Buy my guess (and short-term market forecasts are just guesses) is that we'll have an indecisive day today, after a week of sustained falls. Whether or not the falls resume on Monday will depend on the weekend news.
An annoying thing is that I know I would have made more under the old margin rules; since early last year you now have to deposit thousands into a spread betting account to take out even modest positions, which limited my ability on Monday to take advantage of what was probably the surest thing I'll ever see.
We've done nearly 8,000 tests and found 16 infections. The US has done under 150 tests and found 60 infections. While no doubt there are lessons to be learned, so far we're doing ok.
Controversial opinion.... US healthcare systems are so over resourced, inefficient and have excess capacity that they’ll cope better than the nhs, which works with hardly any overhead capabilities in a pandemic.
Certainly many more ICU beds, for those who can afford them.
Not unique to them but the US really delights in turning fundamental needs (health, education) into great big money factories.
I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress
Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem
So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly
Certainly Boris would have to be very careful in how he treats an opposing woman. And care isn't a card in his pack.
I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress
Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem
So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly
Nandy will make a huge contribution win or lose. My hunch is that the leadership is a thankless burden and she will be freer and more effective in a senior cabinet post developing policy and forensically pulling apart the government. Playing Robin Cook to Starmers Smith.
Amongst other things, that analysis is a very fine example of scientific writing in plain but lucid English prose, entirely accessible to the intelligent layman.
It also suggests he knows whereof he speaks. We cannot rely on warmer skies.
Yep. We are not out of the woods yet, by a long stretch.
I fear we are just about to go into the woods
Only people in their late 80s and 90s will have any memory of living through this kind of massive level crisis.
Well, it’s not nailed on yet. But it is now highly possible. A crisis equivalent to a serious war (not an Iraq misjudgment).
If nothing else, it will give us perspective
I don't think you should rein back now that you are being proven right. This is probably going to be far worse than those apparently bleak posts you put up a week ago.
It's not necessarily the human toll that will be the biggest wipeout but the hammering of the global economy. We have never been so exposed to global markets and everything is being affected. I could see the stock markets losing another 25% before they bottom out, and even that may be optimistic.
And Malcom McAngry calling you a 'snowflake' would be hilarious if it didn't show what a shrivelled old Scottish prune he is. Ignore the idiot. He will eat his words before too long.
Alastair, I apologised to Eadric for mocking your doomsday thread the other day and I now do so to you. Sadly, I think you too are being proven right.
You don’t have anything to apologise for. If I were to apologise every time I took a view that didn’t age well I’d be here a long time.
Absolutely. Nothing wrong with getting things wrong, and no need to apologise for it. It's just about reaction to being wrong.
How will leaving the transition period on WTO rules fair in a global recession?
You’re not believing in Brexit enough. Our new points-based system will keep Coronavirus our.
If you have Coronavirus you'll lose ten points?
You joke but in other countries points based systems health conditions can be points related. Having long term health conditions can prevent you getting a visa rather than free movement where you can be diagnosed with cancer for example, move here under free movement and get free NHS treatment you never contributed towards prior to moving.
There is a usual residency test for such cases. Health tourism is largely a myth.
It is beginning to sound like one of the original Planet Of The Apes movies. And not one of the good ones. About all the pets dying so we enslave apes.
I'm not sure there were any good ones. Entertaining, sure.
By the way, for those of you who prefer betting to speculating, the bet on "will there be a US recession in 2020?" is still up and "Yes" is at 2.88.
The rules are two successive quarters of negative GDP growth. Which is quite a tall hurdle. But surely that 2.88 will come in sharply once others spot the opportunity?
Neither is going to be good for dogs if it’s decided they can be a reservoir for the virus.
In the absolutely bonkers tv show 'zoo', in which all animals in the world start becoming more intelligent and violent due to an infection, I seem to recall the 'heroes' sought to save the animals like their precious dogs, but accidentally sterilized the human race at the same time. Best be cautious
He's restored huge leads in the S Carolina polls, and punters are presumably reckoning that a thumping win there will pull him back into contention on Super Tuesday. At present there's little sign of that, but frankly who knows?
Appalling for Biden there. Likewise things not looking good for Sanders in SC. These two are stuck in what may be a very close battle, to the detriment of the democratic party.
I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress
Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem
So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly
Nandy will make a huge contribution win or lose. My hunch is that the leadership is a thankless burden and she will be freer and more effective in a senior cabinet post developing policy and forensically pulling apart the government. Playing Robin Cook to Starmers Smith.
The debate is the first time I have listened to Starmer and I was surprised at how he struggled at times and just seems that he does not want to upset anyone
I am not at all sure he will be able to hold Boris to account but we will see
How will leaving the transition period on WTO rules fair in a global recession?
You’re not believing in Brexit enough. Our new points-based system will keep Coronavirus our.
If you have Coronavirus you'll lose ten points?
You joke but in other countries points based systems health conditions can be points related. Having long term health conditions can prevent you getting a visa rather than free movement where you can be diagnosed with cancer for example, move here under free movement and get free NHS treatment you never contributed towards prior to moving.
There is a usual residency test for such cases. Health tourism is largely a myth.
How frequently does the NHS check?
You're missing the point there... The checks could be done now without a points system; having a points system won't mean the checks are done.
He's restored huge leads in the S Carolina polls, and punters are presumably reckoning that a thumping win there will pull him back into contention on Super Tuesday. At present there's little sign of that, but frankly who knows?
He looks to me to be the only viable rival for Sanders I mean, am I missing something?
I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress
Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem
So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly
Nandy will make a huge contribution win or lose. My hunch is that the leadership is a thankless burden and she will be freer and more effective in a senior cabinet post developing policy and forensically pulling apart the government. Playing Robin Cook to Starmers Smith.
The debate is the first time I have listened to Starmer and I was surprised at how he struggled at times and just seems that he does not want to upset anyone
I am not at all sure he will be able to hold Boris to account but we will see
I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress
Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem
So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly
Nandy is a republican and opposes Trident and a complete lightweight, as a Tory she would be almost as good as Long Bailey for me
He's restored huge leads in the S Carolina polls, and punters are presumably reckoning that a thumping win there will pull him back into contention on Super Tuesday. At present there's little sign of that, but frankly who knows?
He looks to me to be the only viable rival for Sanders I mean, am I missing something?
Nope. Bloomberg has had it. There would have to be a major surprise, and if the established democrats tried to lever someone like Sherrod Brown in, there could be uproar from both the Bidenites and the Bernie Bros.
The situation in Syria is looking increasingly dangerous - the Turkish counter-strike must be just hours away. I think Turkey should stop prolonging the agony and let Assad take the final province, frankly, but that's easy to say from the UK.
The presidential and nominee betting would be thrown into haywire if one of the contenders comes down with the virus. As it spreads, there must be a significant chance, given how much travelling and meeting they are doing.
I have just watched the labour leader debate on playback and Lisa Nandy was miles ahead and that was shared by the audience. RLB is a lost cause and Starmer had some difficult moments and really did not impress
Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem
So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly
Nandy is a republican and opposes Trident and a complete lightweight, as a Tory she would be almost as good as Long Bailey for me
Also, Nandy`s pledge-signing re transgender lobby disqualifies her as far as I`m concerned. Shame.
How will leaving the transition period on WTO rules fair in a global recession?
You’re not believing in Brexit enough. Our new points-based system will keep Coronavirus our.
If you have Coronavirus you'll lose ten points?
You joke but in other countries points based systems health conditions can be points related. Having long term health conditions can prevent you getting a visa rather than free movement where you can be diagnosed with cancer for example, move here under free movement and get free NHS treatment you never contributed towards prior to moving.
There is a usual residency test for such cases. Health tourism is largely a myth.
How frequently does the NHS check?
You're missing the point there... The checks could be done now without a points system; having a points system won't mean the checks are done.
We could just ask, like the Americans ask if you intend to engage in terrorism?
Comments
If we have a situation where schools close in Europe and America as well, on top of cancellation of basically all business travel and new hiring, who knows where this goes.
S&P has retraced back to July 2019 but is still 18% above its Dec 2018 trough. That looks like the obvious short term target to me. Overall I think it’s easy peasy to imagine a 30-40% further decline from here but potentially with an overshoot that is even worse.
We’ll see some big households names fail from this before it’s done. Airlines, German & Detroit auto, and no doubt a Silicon Valley unicorn or two as well.
I'm extremely disappointed by our response. Whilst I think they think they are doing a good job because cases are low so far, they have not invested enough in getting people ready. The British public are not ready for this culturally or socially.
PHE should have been cranking up the information far sooner. Most people I speak to are totally ignorant. Most of the highly educated people on here were wilfully blind for weeks.
In other news, has anyone caught Chris Witty's comments? They will cancel everything eventually but the timing is crucial. Do it as early as you can and prepare for a long lock down.
They get on and do it.
I can’t keep up with this guy’s aliases....
These ones? So far that is the experience. But yes a few bad sneezes on the tube and the country goes into meltdown.
TrumpPence on top o it:https://twitter.com/ReutersUK/status/1233287833651154944?s=20
In fact it is merely proving the point I am making. It has totally fooled the public into thinking the risk is low - oh look at all these tests we have done and we only have 8 or 9 positive.
Who knew Trump had an inner Gordon Brown?
Ha, just seen the 2015 Trump cannon tweet. Once again, Morris Dancer leads the way!
https://twitter.com/FrDe2059/status/1233290194809475072?s=20
Unfortunately I think it goes a long way back to the 'Doctor knows best' mentality that even Harold Shipman didn't manage to destroy.
As for the F.O. that supercilious attitude oozes out of every pore of their being.
I've been on the receiving end of the latter's crap old colonial attitudes and it's not funny. If Cummings wants to shake up a couple of institutions with my support, he could start with PHE and the F.O.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ixMWhpg0iXU#
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBa8xJyO_xI&app=desktop
https://www.twitter.com/JimmyGomezCA/status/1233203776170987521
Viral-Induced Enhanced Disease Illness
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2018.02991/full
Understanding immune responses to viral infections is crucial to progress in the quest for effective infection prevention and control. The host immunity involves various mechanisms to combat viral infections. Under certain circumstances, a viral infection or vaccination may result in a subverted immune system, which may lead to an exacerbated illness. Clinical evidence of enhanced illness by preexisting antibodies from vaccination, infection or maternal passive immunity is available for several viruses and is presumptively proposed for other viruses. Multiple mechanisms have been proposed to explain this phenomenon....
Do they really think that the multitude of reasons that they looked at options B, C, D etc, the evident senility, the almost incomprehensible speaking style, the inappropriate hugs and touching, the inability to relate to anything post about 2000, the dodgy son and whiff of corruption, etc etc have been forgotten? This seems a cry of despair to me. Sanders will win the nomination by default. He is not best placed to win against Trump but some of the posts on this very thread suggest Trump is moving on from incompetence and dishonesty to being completely demented so anything is possible in November.
Uncle TomBritish Indians could possibly vote Conservative (let alone occupy three top Cabinet posts) - critiqued in thread:https://twitter.com/sunny_hundal/status/1232989275416932352?s=20
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/19/scotland-drugs-problem-westminster-policy
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-51656545
... there are around 50 older women alive.
The paper he attached in the OP is worth a read; it doesn’t contain anything like the certainty of Sean’s summary. Indeed it concedes transmission will likely be slower in the summer. It also says that as a ‘new’ virus, transmission may not drop away as fast in the summer as happens with an established virus (but is somewhat hazy as to why, except for the much larger pool of people with no immunity). Most importantly, all of its conclusions are hedged by the uncertainty and qualifications that any sensible commentator would make.
This doesn’t rule out a summer SeanT apocalypse, but doesn’t confirm one either.
Surprised that it might be out at the end of this year, according to some. My own view was something like 2021-2022 would be likelier. Might still be, of course, but it's going to be next gen.
It is far from a "we're all doomed" piece, its a don't be complacent or stupid piece. Probably a bit optimistic in Trump's case.
I remember a conversation with a school friend in the mid eighties.
Q: "Foxy, how much of a risk to hetero-sexuals is this new AIDS thing?"
A: "Not much at present, it is pretty rare at present, but may well spread to become a risk"
Q: "So you are saying that I should screw around as much as possible in the next year before the opportunity goes?"
True story. My friend is still alive working as a boiler fitter, and no AIDS. It was a correct interpretation of the data!
We are in the early stage of Covid 19. We should remember how previous epidemic threats such as AIDS and BSE were contained, by mass education, changes in behaviour and later medical research.
I think society and economy will be quite disrupted this year, but the disease will be controllable.
Calling it the Australia deal puts into context that its not awful as people make out pretending we'll be like North Korea etc
The FTSE is substantially made up of companies earning overseas though, the FTSE250 is perhaps more representative of the British economy, and could soon be oversold.
Respectfully disagree. I don't think we can take people to 5 from 0 without going to 10. The difference between this and your examples is the speed of action. Days and weeks matter, not months and years.
The societies in East Asia have living memory of epidemics and so it is in their social norms to behave in useful ways. Compare and contrast with the Brits in Tenerife. That's the case study of behaviour we will see here.
I'll send that paper today by the way. If you want anything else behind a paywall just let me know.
It's going to be the same as flu then isn't it. It won't die out over the summer but as autumn and winter arrives it's going to start spreading again. And with no fixed starting point it could and will appear in clusters randomly
Yes, the real crisis point (and further risk to financial markets) may well come in the autumn
Starmer also seemed to have a problem arguing with Lisa and it occurred to me that Boris would have the same problem
So labour, elect Lisa Nandy and do the right thing, but then this is labour who just cannot get it right, sadly
One thing that is clear - from the minute by minute volatility and the lags on the trading platform - is that a lot more people are trying to play the market today than at the start of the week. There is bottom hunting going on. More players means more scope for panic, so I wouldn't discount a further plunge toward my short-term target of 24,000. Buy my guess (and short-term market forecasts are just guesses) is that we'll have an indecisive day today, after a week of sustained falls. Whether or not the falls resume on Monday will depend on the weekend news.
An annoying thing is that I know I would have made more under the old margin rules; since early last year you now have to deposit thousands into a spread betting account to take out even modest positions, which limited my ability on Monday to take advantage of what was probably the surest thing I'll ever see.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128161111
https://twitter.com/batsub1/status/1233311392926720000
The rules are two successive quarters of negative GDP growth. Which is quite a tall hurdle. But surely that 2.88 will come in sharply once others spot the opportunity?
I am not at all sure he will be able to hold Boris to account but we will see