Play the games behind closed doors. Give everyone emergency access to football / sport via the BBC.
That's what is happening in Japan at the weekend where the horse racing meetings will all be held at empty venues. Doesn't stop off-track or online wagering of course - crowds at Happy Valley and Sha Tin have been severely restricted but racing has continued because of the value of off-track wagering.
Could Cheltenham races be held at an empty racecourse? The course wouldn't like the hit on hospitality and especially the bar takings.
Its quite extraordinary that you take tweets like that at face value. Neither the person nor the company are named. Could easily be a complete fabrication.
No idea about that account, but I have thought for a few weeks that the airline industry is (at least in public) underestimating the risk of coronavirus. Even if it doesn't reach the worst estimates it could be widespread enough for long enough that there's a big hit to summer holiday bookings. The industry is infamously low margin and capital-heavy with lots of leveraged assets. I don't know how big a general decline in demand it could endure for a key season without a bunch of airlines just going bust. It's an industry where some airlines go bust even in the good years due to cashflow problems and competition.
I know lots of people anxious about holidays they have booked, and very few people still making new bookings. Everyone is waiting to see how it goes, and there's only so long that can happen before a bunch of airlines run out of cash. And if the virus does get worse and a lot of people decide against ever making that foreign trip this summer, I worry for the airlines.
IF those death rate numbers are correct then authorities might be better off telling elderly people to stay at home rather than stopping young people travelling.
Good candidate but I'm suspicious of the idea that they'll go for a random non-runner. If you're trying to get 51% of votes at the convention it's easier to start with someone who's already got delegates, and since Bernie and Biden look like the front-runners in a scenario like this, and they have excellent Being Likely To Die skills, it's easier to just buy off another runner with the VP slot.
Bernie, Biden and Bloomberg are too effing old
Is there any polling on whether US voters think candidate being very old is good, bad or irrelevant? Genuine question.
It is not inconceivable that Boris could shut off all our borders to any non UK citizen by May, and have Remainers cheering him all the way! What price that last December?
Israel is advising its citizens to avoid ALL foreign travel
I am due to go to Israel a week on Sunday. I have had no advice from anyone not to, so off I will trot. If they let people in, what's the pont of advising citizens not to leave?
How many more days do people think the stock market correction has yet to run? I reckon so far Asia’s Q1 gdp yoy could be as much as high single digit percents down. Nothing is getting done here. And it sounds like the rest of the world is now organising similar curtailments of economic activity.
I still think (and hope) this will be a relatively short lived health crisis, in the order of a few months. But the economic impact could be quite outsized. But when does Mr Market feel the risk has been priced in I wonder?
It is not inconceivable that Boris could shut off all our borders to any non UK citizen by May, and have Remainers cheering him all the way! What price that last December?
Israel is advising its citizens to avoid ALL foreign travel
I am due to go to Israel a week on Sunday. I have had no advice from anyone not to, so off I will trot. If they let people in, what's the pont of advising citizens not to leave?
Isn't that standard though? EG the FCO may advise against "non-essential travel" but then doesn't enforce it or stop people coming. Its just stating the risk and letting people then make their mind up - plus it activates insurance policies so trips can be legally cancelled without super steep surcharges.
I think our government should do the same thing. I know of people who no longer wish to fly but their insurance won't cancel the flight without FCO advice to not travel.
It is not inconceivable that Boris could shut off all our borders to any non UK citizen by May, and have Remainers cheering him all the way! What price that last December?
It's not much use sealing the borders if you still let UK citizens in.
Yeah I guess. I doubt we would be allowed to force other countries to keep them though would we?
What I don't get is that Warren has some decent national numbers (as in she is hitting 3rd place in some polls) but state polling, like this one, looks absolutely horrific for her. Is there a group of states she is going to come first in that haven't been polled?
No. But there are states where she does as well as, or better than, her national average. They tend to be ones with an affluent, white, culturally liberal voter base. Eg MA, NY
The only compromise candidate I think Bernie supporters would even consider is Warren. The dems have more chance with Bernie than with a Sherrod with no mandate.
How many more days do people think the stock market correction has yet to run? I reckon so far Asia’s Q1 gdp yoy could be as much as high single digit percents down. Nothing is getting done here. And it sounds like the rest of the world is now organising similar curtailments of economic activity.
I still think (and hope) this will be a relatively short lived health crisis, in the order of a few months. But the economic impact could be quite outsized. But when does Mr Market feel the risk has been priced in I wonder?
Hopefully not much longer , I am down another 30K today. Been an expensive week, will be in 6 figures soon.
Good candidate but I'm suspicious of the idea that they'll go for a random non-runner. If you're trying to get 51% of votes at the convention it's easier to start with someone who's already got delegates, and since Bernie and Biden look like the front-runners in a scenario like this, and they have excellent Being Likely To Die skills, it's easier to just buy off another runner with the VP slot.
Bernie, Biden and Bloomberg are too effing old
Is there any polling on whether US voters think candidate being very old is good, bad or irrelevant? Genuine question.
63% of Americans would vote for a candidate over 70, 71% would vote for a candidate under 40.
How many more days do people think the stock market correction has yet to run? I reckon so far Asia’s Q1 gdp yoy could be as much as high single digit percents down. Nothing is getting done here. And it sounds like the rest of the world is now organising similar curtailments of economic activity.
I still think (and hope) this will be a relatively short lived health crisis, in the order of a few months. But the economic impact could be quite outsized. But when does Mr Market feel the risk has been priced in I wonder?
Hopefully not much longer , I am down another 30K today. Been an expensive week, will be in 6 figures soon.
You'll soon have lost enough money to justify being as grumpy as you invariably are....
It is not inconceivable that Boris could shut off all our borders to any non UK citizen by May, and have Remainers cheering him all the way! What price that last December?
Israel is advising its citizens to avoid ALL foreign travel
I am due to go to Israel a week on Sunday. I have had no advice from anyone not to, so off I will trot. If they let people in, what's the pont of advising citizens not to leave?
Isn't that standard though? EG the FCO may advise against "non-essential travel" but then doesn't enforce it or stop people coming. Its just stating the risk and letting people then make their mind up - plus it activates insurance policies so trips can be legally cancelled without super steep surcharges.
I think our government should do the same thing. I know of people who no longer wish to fly but their insurance won't cancel the flight without FCO advice to not travel.
Its quite extraordinary that you take tweets like that at face value. Neither the person nor the company are named. Could easily be a complete fabrication.
No idea about that account, but I have thought for a few weeks that the airline industry is (at least in public) underestimating the risk of coronavirus. Even if it doesn't reach the worst estimates it could be widespread enough for long enough that there's a big hit to summer holiday bookings. The industry is infamously low margin and capital-heavy with lots of leveraged assets. I don't know how big a general decline in demand it could endure for a key season without a bunch of airlines just going bust. It's an industry where some airlines go bust even in the good years due to cashflow problems and competition.
I know lots of people anxious about holidays they have booked, and very few people still making new bookings. Everyone is waiting to see how it goes, and there's only so long that can happen before a bunch of airlines run out of cash. And if the virus does get worse and a lot of people decide against ever making that foreign trip this summer, I worry for the airlines.
It is not inconceivable that Boris could shut off all our borders to any non UK citizen by May, and have Remainers cheering him all the way! What price that last December?
Israel is advising its citizens to avoid ALL foreign travel
The only compromise candidate I think Bernie supporters would even consider is Warren. The dems have more chance with Bernie than with a Sherrod with no mandate.
The NYT had a quote from a Dem senior activist saying the Sherrod idea was like something out of a political novel. But added that Trump was like something out of a nightmare, so why not go novel?
We've just had the email to take our laptops home every evening in case London is locked down and everyone told to stay home by the government.
My firm sent an email today with the same. All work-related foreign trips are presumed cancelled unless we hear otherwise, and all UK-based conferences or similar are likely to follow. All trips (work or personal) to a dozen countries including Northern Italy now require 14 days of working from home regardless of if we have symptoms. And just like you we have to take our laptops home every night now in case we suddenly close the office.
2024 Dem primary: AOC vs Chelsea Clinton vs Joe Kennedy vs Elon Musk
2024 GOP Primary Ivanka Trump by acclamation.
If Boris Johnson truly is 'Britain's Trump', and Boris Johnson was born in America...
Funny thought but Johnson has renounced his US citizenship. Even if he regained it somehow now he's no longer be a "natural born" citizen.
That's correct. There is no mechanism to "undo" voluntarily relinquishing US citizenship. other than maybe trying to convince the US courts that the act was made under duress or without sound mind or something. (I believe the UK does allow those who have renounced British citizenship to resume it under certain circumstances.)
Even if Boris could find some wheeze to undo his relinquishment though, he'd still have to move to the US and stay there for fourteen years to become eligible to be POTUS.
The only compromise candidate I think Bernie supporters would even consider is Warren. The dems have more chance with Bernie than with a Sherrod with no mandate.
Quite, and I think they will know that.
In which case they're better off gambling on Bernie - at least there's the upside, from the Democratic establishment POV, of discrediting his politics if he loses.
Good candidate but I'm suspicious of the idea that they'll go for a random non-runner. If you're trying to get 51% of votes at the convention it's easier to start with someone who's already got delegates, and since Bernie and Biden look like the front-runners in a scenario like this, and they have excellent Being Likely To Die skills, it's easier to just buy off another runner with the VP slot.
Bernie, Biden and Bloomberg are too effing old
Is there any polling on whether US voters think candidate being very old is good, bad or irrelevant? Genuine question.
A 51 year old candidate would be at a massive disadvantage. Past that though the older you get the stronger your chances. You need to wait till you're over 63 before your chances are as good as they were at 38 mind.
2024 Dem primary: AOC vs Chelsea Clinton vs Joe Kennedy vs Elon Musk
2024 GOP Primary Ivanka Trump by acclamation.
If Boris Johnson truly is 'Britain's Trump', and Boris Johnson was born in America...
Funny thought but Johnson has renounced his US citizenship. Even if he regained it somehow now he's no longer be a "natural born" citizen.
That's correct. There is no mechanism to "undo" voluntarily relinquishing US citizenship. other than maybe trying to convince the US courts that the act was made under duress or without sound mind or something. (I believe the UK does allow those who have renounced British citizenship to resume it under certain circumstances.)
Even if Boris could find some wheeze to undo his relinquishment though, he'd still have to move to the US and stay there for fourteen years to become eligible to be POTUS.
He could unrevoke because he wasn't of sound mind when he revoked?
UK schools could shut for two months England’s chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, has said that there could be a "social cost" if the virus intensifies and leads to the reduction of mass gatherings and school closures for more than two months.
He added:
"One of the things that's really clear with this virus, much more so than flu, is that anything we do we're going to have to do for quite a long period of time, probably more than two months.
"The implications of that are non-trivial, so we need to think that through carefully.
"This is something we face as really quite a serious problem for society potentially if this goes out of control. It may not but if it does globally then we may have to face that."
How many more days do people think the stock market correction has yet to run? I reckon so far Asia’s Q1 gdp yoy could be as much as high single digit percents down. Nothing is getting done here. And it sounds like the rest of the world is now organising similar curtailments of economic activity.
I still think (and hope) this will be a relatively short lived health crisis, in the order of a few months. But the economic impact could be quite outsized. But when does Mr Market feel the risk has been priced in I wonder?
Hopefully not much longer , I am down another 30K today. Been an expensive week, will be in 6 figures soon.
You'll soon have lost enough money to justify being as grumpy as you invariably are....
Good candidate but I'm suspicious of the idea that they'll go for a random non-runner. If you're trying to get 51% of votes at the convention it's easier to start with someone who's already got delegates, and since Bernie and Biden look like the front-runners in a scenario like this, and they have excellent Being Likely To Die skills, it's easier to just buy off another runner with the VP slot.
Bernie, Biden and Bloomberg are too effing old
Is there any polling on whether US voters think candidate being very old is good, bad or irrelevant? Genuine question.
63% of Americans would vote for a candidate over 70, 71% would vote for a candidate under 40.
IF those death rate numbers are correct then authorities might be better off telling elderly people to stay at home rather than stopping young people travelling.
But the young can then pass it on to the old (and are more likely to be asymptomatic carriers)....
If you're going to shut things down temporarily to stop the spread, then you need to shut down across the age gamut.
Honest source at least Rob, none of your unionist muck involved. The Tory Deputy Leader made a right tit of herself, told Sturgeon they needed to spend 15.4M on drugs and when Sturgeon advised that they were adding 20M the dummy said it wasn't enough. Ran out of fingers and toes.
It is not inconceivable that Boris could shut off all our borders to any non UK citizen by May, and have Remainers cheering him all the way! What price that last December?
Israel is advising its citizens to avoid ALL foreign travel
Private companies making decisions to protect their employees is really excellent news.
Tick tock PHE / Hancock / DoH - where is your information? Where is the sense of urgency. Time is of the essence.
An extra school holiday, perhaps ? (Japanese schools are now out until April - though of course the disease spread is already much more advanced there.)
How many more days do people think the stock market correction has yet to run? I reckon so far Asia’s Q1 gdp yoy could be as much as high single digit percents down. Nothing is getting done here. And it sounds like the rest of the world is now organising similar curtailments of economic activity.
I still think (and hope) this will be a relatively short lived health crisis, in the order of a few months. But the economic impact could be quite outsized. But when does Mr Market feel the risk has been priced in I wonder?
Hopefully not much longer , I am down another 30K today. Been an expensive week, will be in 6 figures soon.
You'll soon have lost enough money to justify being as grumpy as you invariably are....
I will be super grumpy
The world may be getting prepared for COVID-19 lock down, but it sure as hell ain't remotely ready for super grumpy malcyg!!
How many more days do people think the stock market correction has yet to run? I reckon so far Asia’s Q1 gdp yoy could be as much as high single digit percents down. Nothing is getting done here. And it sounds like the rest of the world is now organising similar curtailments of economic activity.
I still think (and hope) this will be a relatively short lived health crisis, in the order of a few months. But the economic impact could be quite outsized. But when does Mr Market feel the risk has been priced in I wonder?
That’s a tough one. It’s been another good day for my sell positions and I’m now up around £4.5k.
Markets respond to mood, and I am picking up first signs of a more level headed approach to the virus at least starting to emerge, and people are starting to normalise the risk, There is also growing realisation that as the weather starts to warm, the risk is very likely to fall away (with risk of big crisis next winter, when there is no way a vaccine will be ready).
I am taking some profits this afternoon and holding a minimum position overnight, to see how the land lies tomorrow.
On the other hand, markets were already overvalued, especially in the US (which I have mostly been trading), and this has prompted the long awaited correction. And the medium term economic damage of all the ceased economic activity is still being underestimated. There isnt going to be a bounce back.
My instinct is that we have probably seen the worst for this week, and may have an indecisive Friday.
It’s then a race against time as the virus spreads but the northern hemisphere warms. More bad news next week could send markets down again.
Medium term, I don’t think this is going to be a good year for investment, with a depressed market as the poor economic news filters through the system over the summer, and risk of a further crash in the autumn as summer weather recedes and Corona returns.
So, unlike some previous crises (for example 9/11) I don’t think the lower prices represent a great buying opportunity, and I won’t be rushing to buy back the shares I sold earlier in the month.
2024 Dem primary: AOC vs Chelsea Clinton vs Joe Kennedy vs Elon Musk
2024 GOP Primary Ivanka Trump by acclamation.
If Boris Johnson truly is 'Britain's Trump', and Boris Johnson was born in America...
Funny thought but Johnson has renounced his US citizenship. Even if he regained it somehow now he's no longer be a "natural born" citizen.
That's correct. There is no mechanism to "undo" voluntarily relinquishing US citizenship. other than maybe trying to convince the US courts that the act was made under duress or without sound mind or something. (I believe the UK does allow those who have renounced British citizenship to resume it under certain circumstances.)
Even if Boris could find some wheeze to undo his relinquishment though, he'd still have to move to the US and stay there for fourteen years to become eligible to be POTUS.
By which point he'd only have to wait a few more years before being old enough to be considered a candidate....
The US election aint gonna happen this year is it?
Has to happen by January 20th 2021[1], absent a constitutional amendment.
[1] Actually probably before, as I think the constitution specifies when the electoral college is supposed to meet, but I CBA to look it up.
The course of this thing will probably be done one way or another by November... and even the Democratic Convention in July ought to be fine. And Super Tuesday will be out of the way before it takes hold.
Surprised not to see more discussion about Heathrow today.
Personally I think its time to bring back the idea of Boris Island. Doesn't necessarily have to be explicitly in the Thames Estuary, but at this time of infrastructure investments a new purpose built 4-runway airport with good purpose built transport links rather than constantly messing around with an overcrowded airport in an overcrowded residential area could be a good idea now.
We've just had the email to take our laptops home every evening in case London is locked down and everyone told to stay home by the government.
My firm sent an email today with the same. All work-related foreign trips are presumed cancelled unless we hear otherwise, and all UK-based conferences or similar are likely to follow. All trips (work or personal) to a dozen countries including Northern Italy now require 14 days of working from home regardless of if we have symptoms. And just like you we have to take our laptops home every night now in case we suddenly close the office.
The surprise will be if all the cancelled conferences and business travel creates a boost in productivity as everyone works away at their desk (or from home)
Its quite extraordinary that you take tweets like that at face value. Neither the person nor the company are named. Could easily be a complete fabrication.
No idea about that account, but I have thought for a few weeks that the airline industry is (at least in public) underestimating the risk of coronavirus. Even if it doesn't reach the worst estimates it could be widespread enough for long enough that there's a big hit to summer holiday bookings. The industry is infamously low margin and capital-heavy with lots of leveraged assets. I don't know how big a general decline in demand it could endure for a key season without a bunch of airlines just going bust. It's an industry where some airlines go bust even in the good years due to cashflow problems and competition.
I know lots of people anxious about holidays they have booked, and very few people still making new bookings. Everyone is waiting to see how it goes, and there's only so long that can happen before a bunch of airlines run out of cash. And if the virus does get worse and a lot of people decide against ever making that foreign trip this summer, I worry for the airlines.
It'll doubtless please Greta and her Green chums
Hopefully if there is a general suspension of business travel by corporations, it will make them reassess how much is actually necessary. My (Swedish-based) company has already pledged to cut business travel by 25% this year because Greta, and is (reluctantly) opening up to more remote working because we're growing faster than we can acquire office space. We have our annual internal tech conference scheduled for April here in NYC. Currently the official line is that it's still going ahead, but we shall see.
Good candidate but I'm suspicious of the idea that they'll go for a random non-runner. If you're trying to get 51% of votes at the convention it's easier to start with someone who's already got delegates, and since Bernie and Biden look like the front-runners in a scenario like this, and they have excellent Being Likely To Die skills, it's easier to just buy off another runner with the VP slot.
Bernie, Biden and Bloomberg are too effing old
Is there any polling on whether US voters think candidate being very old is good, bad or irrelevant? Genuine question.
63% of Americans would vote for a candidate over 70, 71% would vote for a candidate under 40.
Have the Iranians yet alleged it is a bio-weapon targetting a specific Iranian DNA trait? Which they long predicted and so they were justified in trying to build the Bomb.
In a few months Jimmy Smits (ideas on who?) will win the brokered convention. And after that it’s Kevin Spacey suspending the election (aka Mike Pence).
Which leaves us with Harrison Ford throwing a terrorist out of a plane, followed by Bill Pullman shooting down a UFO.
And thus we have my 5 top US screen president moments of all time come true in real life.
It's not much use sealing the borders if you still let UK citizens in.
I think if we're doing it we need to do it. No half measures. Nobody with a sniffle gets in regardless of who they are.
Fortress Britain until there's a vaccine.
Fortress Britain hasn't been very good at stopping large numbers of, er, Iranians crossing the Channel in little boats.
Maybe as part of COVID-19 measures we need to mine the Kent/Essex coast....
This is a stupid comment. If there were to be a travel ban it would stop very large numbers of people crossing the UK border, even if the number of little boats crossing the channel increased 100-fold.
UK schools could shut for two months England’s chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, has said that there could be a "social cost" if the virus intensifies and leads to the reduction of mass gatherings and school closures for more than two months.
He added:
"One of the things that's really clear with this virus, much more so than flu, is that anything we do we're going to have to do for quite a long period of time, probably more than two months.
"The implications of that are non-trivial, so we need to think that through carefully.
"This is something we face as really quite a serious problem for society potentially if this goes out of control. It may not but if it does globally then we may have to face that."
Telegraph blog
The cost of shutting schools for two months would be massively less than that of a full scale pandemic. They've probably got a couple of weeks or so to think about it, and should be doing so very seriously.
Good candidate but I'm suspicious of the idea that they'll go for a random non-runner. If you're trying to get 51% of votes at the convention it's easier to start with someone who's already got delegates, and since Bernie and Biden look like the front-runners in a scenario like this, and they have excellent Being Likely To Die skills, it's easier to just buy off another runner with the VP slot.
Bernie, Biden and Bloomberg are too effing old
Is there any polling on whether US voters think candidate being very old is good, bad or irrelevant? Genuine question.
63% of Americans would vote for a candidate over 70, 71% would vote for a candidate under 40.
100% of Americans are going to have no option but to vote for a candidate over 70.....
It is extraordinary. All of Britain's postwar PMs were between 40 and 65 when taking office, with the exception of Churchill who was coming back for a second term.
If anything our average has probably edged downwards as 3 of the last 6 were in their 40s when becoming PM (Major, Blair and Cameron)
It's not much use sealing the borders if you still let UK citizens in.
I think if we're doing it we need to do it. No half measures. Nobody with a sniffle gets in regardless of who they are.
Fortress Britain until there's a vaccine.
Fortress Britain hasn't been very good at stopping large numbers of, er, Iranians crossing the Channel in little boats.
Maybe as part of COVID-19 measures we need to mine the Kent/Essex coast....
This is a stupid comment. If there were to be a travel ban it would stop very large numbers of people crossing the UK border, even if the number of little boats crossing the channel increased 100-fold.
I don't think I implied it was ever anything but a stupid comment.....
I've just seen a graphic of Coronavirus death rates (Obviously an early study) but it does suggest it is dangerous for elderly people with existing health problems.
The death rate for 80 plus people is 14.8 per cent, which is very considerable
Lower down the ages it plummets however.
50/59 is 1.3% 40/49 is 0.40% 20/29 is 0.20%.
Its an early study but those are pretty low numbers.
The source is worldometers.info
To put that in context, from a random google (so I haven't checked authenticity of this site) the all-cause death rate for 80-84 year olds in Us in 2017 was 6.9% male, 5.1% female; for 85 and over 14.7% and 13.0% male/female. Many many illnesses (and life itself) are dangerous for elderly people with existing health problems.
The US seems to be a perfect storm for Coronavirus.
1. Patients have to pay for healthcare -> will lead to sick people avoiding testing and treatment 2. Large percentage of the population over 75, where mortality rises sharply to 10-15% (our 75+ is 9%, vs China 3.3%) 3. Epidemic of low savings - people in the early stages of it may continue working trying to push through. 4. Fractured healthcare system 5. Massive rates of obesity. Obese people are 40% more likely to develop pneumonia, people with a BMI over 35 are more than twice as likely to develop it compared to a healthy person. This will lead to a substantially higher demand on resources. About 20-25% of the US are in the 35+ BMI bracket. 5. A President very keen on keeping the stock market on a short term high. 6. Gun nuts that won't be keen on quarantine.
The US seems to be a perfect storm for Coronavirus.
1. Patients have to pay for healthcare -> will lead to sick people avoiding testing and treatment 2. Large percentage of the population over 75, where mortality rises sharply to 10-15% (our 75+ is 9%, vs China 3.3%) 3. Epidemic of low savings - people in the early stages of it may continue working trying to push through. 4. Fractured healthcare system 5. Massive rates of obesity. Obese people are 40% more likely to develop pneumonia, people with a BMI over 35 are more than twice as likely to develop it compared to a healthy person. This will lead to a substantially higher demand on resources. 5. A President very keen on keeping the stock market on a short term high. 6. Gun nuts that won't be keen on quarantine.
The USA has three things working in its favour though:
1: Very low population density (35 per square km in USA vs 117 per square km in EU and 274 per square km in UK) 2: A geographically very spread out nature. The distances between US states and cities is massive compared to here, will make quarantine much easier. 3: Much lower rates of international travel.
If coronavirus does become an epidemic in America its more likely to affect blue states before the red ones.
And to go all materialistic about things this is an absolute bummer as we have share options that are vesting soon which are going to lose a lot of value.
UK schools could shut for two months England’s chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, has said that there could be a "social cost" if the virus intensifies and leads to the reduction of mass gatherings and school closures for more than two months.
He added:
"One of the things that's really clear with this virus, much more so than flu, is that anything we do we're going to have to do for quite a long period of time, probably more than two months.
"The implications of that are non-trivial, so we need to think that through carefully.
"This is something we face as really quite a serious problem for society potentially if this goes out of control. It may not but if it does globally then we may have to face that."
Telegraph blog
The cost of shutting schools for two months would be massively less than that of a full scale pandemic. They've probably got a couple of weeks or so to think about it, and should be doing so very seriously.
Good candidate but I'm suspicious of the idea that they'll go for a random non-runner. If you're trying to get 51% of votes at the convention it's easier to start with someone who's already got delegates, and since Bernie and Biden look like the front-runners in a scenario like this, and they have excellent Being Likely To Die skills, it's easier to just buy off another runner with the VP slot.
Bernie, Biden and Bloomberg are too effing old
Is there any polling on whether US voters think candidate being very old is good, bad or irrelevant? Genuine question.
63% of Americans would vote for a candidate over 70, 71% would vote for a candidate under 40.
100% of Americans are going to have no option but to vote for a candidate over 70.....
It is extraordinary. All of Britain's postwar PMs were between 40 and 65 when taking office, with the exception of Churchill who was coming back for a second term.
If anything our average has probably edged downwards as 3 of the last 6 were in their 40s when becoming PM (Major, Blair and Cameron)
We're raising the retirement age though, in part at any rate because of longevity.
LOL. The fiascos over the hospitals in Glasgow and Edinburgh, plus the withdrawal of maternity services in places like Elgin and Wick has had Jeane Freeman (Scot Health Secretary) in permanent crisis mode. However even this is small beer compared to the education disaster. Remember Nicola has over £1,000 per head more to spend up here than down south.
And to go all materialistic about things this is an absolute bummer as we have share options that are vesting soon which are going to lose a lot of value.
Both my sons work in industries where there's a lot of air travel. I wonder what's going to happen.
UK schools could shut for two months England’s chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, has said that there could be a "social cost" if the virus intensifies and leads to the reduction of mass gatherings and school closures for more than two months.
He added:
"One of the things that's really clear with this virus, much more so than flu, is that anything we do we're going to have to do for quite a long period of time, probably more than two months.
"The implications of that are non-trivial, so we need to think that through carefully.
"This is something we face as really quite a serious problem for society potentially if this goes out of control. It may not but if it does globally then we may have to face that."
Telegraph blog
The cost of shutting schools for two months would be massively less than that of a full scale pandemic. They've probably got a couple of weeks or so to think about it, and should be doing so very seriously.
The US seems to be a perfect storm for Coronavirus.
1. Patients have to pay for healthcare -> will lead to sick people avoiding testing and treatment 2. Large percentage of the population over 75, where mortality rises sharply to 10-15% (our 75+ is 9%, vs China 3.3%) 3. Epidemic of low savings - people in the early stages of it may continue working trying to push through. 4. Fractured healthcare system 5. Massive rates of obesity. Obese people are 40% more likely to develop pneumonia, people with a BMI over 35 are more than twice as likely to develop it compared to a healthy person. This will lead to a substantially higher demand on resources. 5. A President very keen on keeping the stock market on a short term high. 6. Gun nuts that won't be keen on quarantine.
The USA has three things working in its favour though:
1: Very low population density (35 per square km in USA vs 117 per square km in EU and 274 per square km in UK) 2: A geographically very spread out nature. The distances between US states and cities is massive compared to here, will make quarantine much easier. 3: Much lower rates of international travel.
If coronavirus does become an epidemic in America its more likely to affect blue states before the red ones.
Lack of intra-city public transport may also be a plus.
The US seems to be a perfect storm for Coronavirus.
1. Patients have to pay for healthcare -> will lead to sick people avoiding testing and treatment 2. Large percentage of the population over 75, where mortality rises sharply to 10-15% (our 75+ is 9%, vs China 3.3%) 3. Epidemic of low savings - people in the early stages of it may continue working trying to push through. 4. Fractured healthcare system 5. Massive rates of obesity. Obese people are 40% more likely to develop pneumonia, people with a BMI over 35 are more than twice as likely to develop it compared to a healthy person. This will lead to a substantially higher demand on resources. About 20-25% of the US are in the 35+ BMI bracket. 5. A President very keen on keeping the stock market on a short term high. 6. Gun nuts that won't be keen on quarantine.
I think the biggest problem in the USA will be the absence of systematic testing and systematic contact tracing. That is what worked in Singapore as containment, and is the reason for the rapid detection of new cases in ROK and Italy. I think Public Health England are pretty good at it to.
The US seems to be a perfect storm for Coronavirus.
1. Patients have to pay for healthcare -> will lead to sick people avoiding testing and treatment 2. Large percentage of the population over 75, where mortality rises sharply to 10-15% (our 75+ is 9%, vs China 3.3%) 3. Epidemic of low savings - people in the early stages of it may continue working trying to push through. 4. Fractured healthcare system 5. Massive rates of obesity. Obese people are 40% more likely to develop pneumonia, people with a BMI over 35 are more than twice as likely to develop it compared to a healthy person. This will lead to a substantially higher demand on resources. About 20-25% of the US are in the 35+ BMI bracket. 5. A President very keen on keeping the stock market on a short term high. 6. Gun nuts that won't be keen on quarantine.
And the availability of testing varies considerably by state, it seems some states are finding the testing kits they have (apparently there is a range of types) aren’t working properly, and a lot of states are still having to mail the samples off to Atlanta where they wait for ages before being processed.
That guy in California who got his positive result today apparently was tested way back.
The US seems to be a perfect storm for Coronavirus.
1. Patients have to pay for healthcare -> will lead to sick people avoiding testing and treatment 2. Large percentage of the population over 75, where mortality rises sharply to 10-15% (our 75+ is 9%, vs China 3.3%) 3. Epidemic of low savings - people in the early stages of it may continue working trying to push through. 4. Fractured healthcare system 5. Massive rates of obesity. Obese people are 40% more likely to develop pneumonia, people with a BMI over 35 are more than twice as likely to develop it compared to a healthy person. This will lead to a substantially higher demand on resources. About 20-25% of the US are in the 35+ BMI bracket. 5. A President very keen on keeping the stock market on a short term high. 6. Gun nuts that won't be keen on quarantine.
I think the biggest problem in the USA will be the absence of systematic testing and systematic contact tracing. That is what worked in Singapore as containment, and is the reason for the rapid detection of new cases in ROK and Italy. I think Public Health England are pretty good at it to.
The US seems to be a perfect storm for Coronavirus.
1. Patients have to pay for healthcare -> will lead to sick people avoiding testing and treatment 2. Large percentage of the population over 75, where mortality rises sharply to 10-15% (our 75+ is 9%, vs China 3.3%) 3. Epidemic of low savings - people in the early stages of it may continue working trying to push through. 4. Fractured healthcare system 5. Massive rates of obesity. Obese people are 40% more likely to develop pneumonia, people with a BMI over 35 are more than twice as likely to develop it compared to a healthy person. This will lead to a substantially higher demand on resources. 5. A President very keen on keeping the stock market on a short term high. 6. Gun nuts that won't be keen on quarantine.
The USA has three things working in its favour though:
1: Very low population density (35 per square km in USA vs 117 per square km in EU and 274 per square km in UK) 2: A geographically very spread out nature. The distances between US states and cities is massive compared to here, will make quarantine much easier. 3: Much lower rates of international travel.
If coronavirus does become an epidemic in America its more likely to affect blue states before the red ones.
Americans move about a lot, by road and air. Small town America has pretty poor health facilities. Sure there will be Survivalists Militias in Montana kitted up for this event, but Appalachia not so much.
The US seems to be a perfect storm for Coronavirus.
1. Patients have to pay for healthcare -> will lead to sick people avoiding testing and treatment 2. Large percentage of the population over 75, where mortality rises sharply to 10-15% (our 75+ is 9%, vs China 3.3%) 3. Epidemic of low savings - people in the early stages of it may continue working trying to push through. 4. Fractured healthcare system 5. Massive rates of obesity. Obese people are 40% more likely to develop pneumonia, people with a BMI over 35 are more than twice as likely to develop it compared to a healthy person. This will lead to a substantially higher demand on resources. 5. A President very keen on keeping the stock market on a short term high. 6. Gun nuts that won't be keen on quarantine.
The USA has three things working in its favour though:
1: Very low population density (35 per square km in USA vs 117 per square km in EU and 274 per square km in UK) 2: A geographically very spread out nature. The distances between US states and cities is massive compared to here, will make quarantine much easier. 3: Much lower rates of international travel.
If coronavirus does become an epidemic in America its more likely to affect blue states before the red ones.
But on 1, a lot of their population is very concentrated in urban areas, and they travel about a lot. Ditto 2 - the volume of internal flights mean that the distance between cities is in itself immaterial. The virus doesn’t have to walk. On 3. it only needs a little International travel - the whole Italian thing appears to have started from one couple.
The US election aint gonna happen this year is it?
There are of course people working in the UK who don't have sick pay and who literally cannot afford to miss a day's work so that will be how the coronavirus has or will spread here.
People who cannot afford to miss work won't take any notice of calls to self-isolate. They'll keep going to work no matter how sick they are because they have no choice.
Is the Today programme a major media outlet? I don't think I know a single person who listens to it. And its approach makes it impossible for interviewees to get their message across.
We're raising the retirement age though, in part at any rate because of longevity.
But part of the expectation - or at least hope - with that is that older employees would have a fade-out farewell, going to a part-time basis or reducing responsibilities before retiring altogether. The theory is that their replacements get to learn from the expert, while the older person transitions into retirement and adapts to relative old age, without suddenly going from five days a week (or more) to zero.
The idea wasn't really that people would be right at the top of their professions doing high pressure jobs into their old age.
Bloomberg, Biden and Sanders would all be octogenarians well before the end of their first term. Increase in life expectancy notwithstanding, that is OLD. Not just that, but there are pretty clear signs the first two aren't at the peak of their powers mentally, and that the last isn't physically (having had a heart attack recently).
It is pretty extraordinary when the job of President really is as high pressure as they come.
You could point out that Gladstone was 85 and Churchill 81 when they left office. But they were different times, and the truth is that neither was on the top of their game by their final flings; Churchill to the point of really being PM in name only towards the end.
Is the Today programme a major media outlet? I don't think I know a single person who listens to it. And its approach makes it impossible for interviewees to get their message across.
6 or 7 million audience. Your comment is just silly.
It's not much use sealing the borders if you still let UK citizens in.
I think if we're doing it we need to do it. No half measures. Nobody with a sniffle gets in regardless of who they are.
Fortress Britain until there's a vaccine.
Fortress Britain hasn't been very good at stopping large numbers of, er, Iranians crossing the Channel in little boats.
Maybe as part of COVID-19 measures we need to mine the Kent/Essex coast....
This is a stupid comment. If there were to be a travel ban it would stop very large numbers of people crossing the UK border, even if the number of little boats crossing the channel increased 100-fold.
I don't think I implied it was ever anything but a stupid comment.....
I've just seen a graphic of Coronavirus death rates (Obviously an early study) but it does suggest it is dangerous for elderly people with existing health problems.
The death rate for 80 plus people is 14.8 per cent, which is very considerable
Lower down the ages it plummets however.
50/59 is 1.3% 40/49 is 0.40% 20/29 is 0.20%.
Its an early study but those are pretty low numbers.
The source is worldometers.info
To put that in context, from a random google (so I haven't checked authenticity of this site) the all-cause death rate for 80-84 year olds in Us in 2017 was 6.9% male, 5.1% female; for 85 and over 14.7% and 13.0% male/female. Many many illnesses (and life itself) are dangerous for elderly people with existing health problems.
The doctor who spoke to us this morning said that the provisional view is that adult men appear significantly more susceptible to catch the virus than women or children. The history of some of the well publicised early cases suggests this also.
Is the Today programme a major media outlet? I don't think I know a single person who listens to it. And its approach makes it impossible for interviewees to get their message across.
When someone begins a sentence "I don't think I know a single person who..." the immediate reaction is "it's not all about you, mate... and you probably want to broaden your echo chamber".
I've just seen a graphic of Coronavirus death rates (Obviously an early study) but it does suggest it is dangerous for elderly people with existing health problems.
The death rate for 80 plus people is 14.8 per cent, which is very considerable
Lower down the ages it plummets however.
50/59 is 1.3% 40/49 is 0.40% 20/29 is 0.20%.
Its an early study but those are pretty low numbers.
The source is worldometers.info
To put that in context, from a random google (so I haven't checked authenticity of this site) the all-cause death rate for 80-84 year olds in Us in 2017 was 6.9% male, 5.1% female; for 85 and over 14.7% and 13.0% male/female. Many many illnesses (and life itself) are dangerous for elderly people with existing health problems.
The doctor who spoke to us this morning said that the provisional view is that adult men appear significantly more susceptible to catch the virus than women or children. The history of some of the well publicised early cases suggests this also.
Not unusual with viral infections. I think the figures currently suggest around 60% more men than women.
Oh thank goodness the beard trend will come to an end then.
Not that I am actually opposed to the resurgence in beards in the last decade, far from it, I'm just unable to grow a convincing one myself so I'm vindictive.
I've just seen a graphic of Coronavirus death rates (Obviously an early study) but it does suggest it is dangerous for elderly people with existing health problems.
The death rate for 80 plus people is 14.8 per cent, which is very considerable
Lower down the ages it plummets however.
50/59 is 1.3% 40/49 is 0.40% 20/29 is 0.20%.
Its an early study but those are pretty low numbers.
The source is worldometers.info
To put that in context, from a random google (so I haven't checked authenticity of this site) the all-cause death rate for 80-84 year olds in Us in 2017 was 6.9% male, 5.1% female; for 85 and over 14.7% and 13.0% male/female. Many many illnesses (and life itself) are dangerous for elderly people with existing health problems.
The doctor who spoke to us this morning said that the provisional view is that adult men appear significantly more susceptible to catch the virus than women or children. The history of some of the well publicised early cases suggests this also.
I don't think that is correct. The male/ female infection rate in China is more or less equal, but the fatality rate in males is nearly twice that of females.
And to go all materialistic about things this is an absolute bummer as we have share options that are vesting soon which are going to lose a lot of value.
Spread betting companies offer bets on individual shares. You had - and probably still have - the opportunity to insure yourself, should you wish.
Surprised not to see more discussion about Heathrow today.
Personally I think its time to bring back the idea of Boris Island. Doesn't necessarily have to be explicitly in the Thames Estuary, but at this time of infrastructure investments a new purpose built 4-runway airport with good purpose built transport links rather than constantly messing around with an overcrowded airport in an overcrowded residential area could be a good idea now.
It's not a bad idea. You could extend Crossrail a little out past Abbey Wood and build something in the wastes of Erith.
Some of these states are, in cultural if not political terms, the equivalent of the red wall. However Sanders might fare, and I've no idea whether he or Biden are better placed to beat Trump, most of the Corbyn comparisons do indeed need to be thrown out of the window. He may be as polarising as Trump, but he also seems to have as a big a potential base as Trump. It's actually more equivalent to a closely tied groundswell between Brexit and a successful left in the old industrial heartlands - and that is a situation in which anything could happen.
Is the Today programme a major media outlet? I don't think I know a single person who listens to it. And its approach makes it impossible for interviewees to get their message across.
6 or 7 million audience. Your comment is just silly.
That is the weekly reach - the number who listen for 5 minutes at ANY point in the week.
The programme lasts for 21 hours (?) each week.
So someone listening for 5 minutes out of 21 hours is counted in the weekly reach.
The number listening at any one point in time is a miniscule fraction of that.
There is a reason all radio audiences are published as weekly reach - because if the programme average (on one day) was published (like TV audiences) they would look very small indeed.
Surprised not to see more discussion about Heathrow today.
Personally I think its time to bring back the idea of Boris Island. Doesn't necessarily have to be explicitly in the Thames Estuary, but at this time of infrastructure investments a new purpose built 4-runway airport with good purpose built transport links rather than constantly messing around with an overcrowded airport in an overcrowded residential area could be a good idea now.
It's not a bad idea. You could extend Crossrail a little out past Abbey Wood and build something in the wastes of Erith.
Getting car traffic anywhere around Kent or SE London from the rest of the country would be an absolute nightmare.
The US seems to be a perfect storm for Coronavirus.
1. Patients have to pay for healthcare -> will lead to sick people avoiding testing and treatment 2. Large percentage of the population over 75, where mortality rises sharply to 10-15% (our 75+ is 9%, vs China 3.3%) 3. Epidemic of low savings - people in the early stages of it may continue working trying to push through. 4. Fractured healthcare system 5. Massive rates of obesity. Obese people are 40% more likely to develop pneumonia, people with a BMI over 35 are more than twice as likely to develop it compared to a healthy person. This will lead to a substantially higher demand on resources. About 20-25% of the US are in the 35+ BMI bracket. 5. A President very keen on keeping the stock market on a short term high. 6. Gun nuts that won't be keen on quarantine.
I would add, the extremely large number of illegal immigrants who at the best of times try to avoid any contact with the authorities, and obviously now with Trump rhetoric (even if ICE deportations under Obama were just as high).
They obviously have no health care and given the nature of their work won't be taking days off to self quarantine on the off chance, while also won't be keen on revealing themselves as potentially having the virus to anybody.
I've just seen a graphic of Coronavirus death rates (Obviously an early study) but it does suggest it is dangerous for elderly people with existing health problems.
The death rate for 80 plus people is 14.8 per cent, which is very considerable
Lower down the ages it plummets however.
50/59 is 1.3% 40/49 is 0.40% 20/29 is 0.20%.
Its an early study but those are pretty low numbers.
The source is worldometers.info
To put that in context, from a random google (so I haven't checked authenticity of this site) the all-cause death rate for 80-84 year olds in Us in 2017 was 6.9% male, 5.1% female; for 85 and over 14.7% and 13.0% male/female. Many many illnesses (and life itself) are dangerous for elderly people with existing health problems.
The doctor who spoke to us this morning said that the provisional view is that adult men appear significantly more susceptible to catch the virus than women or children. The history of some of the well publicised early cases suggests this also.
I don't think that is correct. The male/ female infection rate in China is more or less equal, but the fatality rate in males is nearly twice that of females.
Well he was the lead doctor for the regional primary care network and claimed to have just had the NHS Briefing. But you probably have just as good sources,
In the ski chalet where the twelve of them were in close quarters for their holiday, it seems to be mostly men who came down with it?
But maybe I misunderstood fatality rate for infection rate
The US seems to be a perfect storm for Coronavirus.
1. Patients have to pay for healthcare -> will lead to sick people avoiding testing and treatment 2. Large percentage of the population over 75, where mortality rises sharply to 10-15% (our 75+ is 9%, vs China 3.3%) 3. Epidemic of low savings - people in the early stages of it may continue working trying to push through. 4. Fractured healthcare system 5. Massive rates of obesity. Obese people are 40% more likely to develop pneumonia, people with a BMI over 35 are more than twice as likely to develop it compared to a healthy person. This will lead to a substantially higher demand on resources. 5. A President very keen on keeping the stock market on a short term high. 6. Gun nuts that won't be keen on quarantine.
The USA has three things working in its favour though:
1: Very low population density (35 per square km in USA vs 117 per square km in EU and 274 per square km in UK) 2: A geographically very spread out nature. The distances between US states and cities is massive compared to here, will make quarantine much easier. 3: Much lower rates of international travel.
If coronavirus does become an epidemic in America its more likely to affect blue states before the red ones.
But on 1, a lot of their population is very concentrated in urban areas, and they travel about a lot. Ditto 2 - the volume of internal flights mean that the distance between cities is in itself immaterial. The virus doesn’t have to walk. On 3. it only needs a little International travel - the whole Italian thing appears to have started from one couple.
Their population density even in urban areas (barring a few coastal cities hence my blue states remark) is lower than in our comparable urban areas. Plus they tend to drive rather than take mass transit.
Comments
Could Cheltenham races be held at an empty racecourse? The course wouldn't like the hit on hospitality and especially the bar takings.
I know lots of people anxious about holidays they have booked, and very few people still making new bookings. Everyone is waiting to see how it goes, and there's only so long that can happen before a bunch of airlines run out of cash. And if the virus does get worse and a lot of people decide against ever making that foreign trip this summer, I worry for the airlines.
I still think (and hope) this will be a relatively short lived health crisis, in the order of a few months. But the economic impact could be quite outsized. But when does Mr Market feel the risk has been priced in I wonder?
I think our government should do the same thing. I know of people who no longer wish to fly but their insurance won't cancel the flight without FCO advice to not travel.
https://www.nytimes.com/1981/05/17/world/vatican-gets-first-ambassador-from-the-islamic-republic-of-iran.html
*paging Dan Brown.....*
The dems have more chance with Bernie than with a Sherrod with no mandate.
Maybe as part of COVID-19 measures we need to mine the Kent/Essex coast....
https://news.gallup.com/poll/254120/less-half-vote-socialist-president.aspx
https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/1233062522506354689
https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1233050390050099207
Sleepy Joe might be waking up.
Even if Boris could find some wheeze to undo his relinquishment though, he'd still have to move to the US and stay there for fourteen years to become eligible to be POTUS.
In which case they're better off gambling on Bernie - at least there's the upside, from the Democratic establishment POV, of discrediting his politics if he loses.
A 51 year old candidate would be at a massive disadvantage. Past that though the older you get the stronger your chances. You need to wait till you're over 63 before your chances are as good as they were at 38 mind.
The US election aint gonna happen this year is it?
I'm sure witnesses could be found!
England’s chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, has said that there could be a "social cost" if the virus intensifies and leads to the reduction of mass gatherings and school closures for more than two months.
He added:
"One of the things that's really clear with this virus, much more so than flu, is that anything we do we're going to have to do for quite a long period of time, probably more than two months.
"The implications of that are non-trivial, so we need to think that through carefully.
"This is something we face as really quite a serious problem for society potentially if this goes out of control. It may not but if it does globally then we may have to face that."
Telegraph blog
If you're going to shut things down temporarily to stop the spread, then you need to shut down across the age gamut.
(Japanese schools are now out until April - though of course the disease spread is already much more advanced there.)
Markets respond to mood, and I am picking up first signs of a more level headed approach to the virus at least starting to emerge, and people are starting to normalise the risk, There is also growing realisation that as the weather starts to warm, the risk is very likely to fall away (with risk of big crisis next winter, when there is no way a vaccine will be ready).
I am taking some profits this afternoon and holding a minimum position overnight, to see how the land lies tomorrow.
On the other hand, markets were already overvalued, especially in the US (which I have mostly been trading), and this has prompted the long awaited correction. And the medium term economic damage of all the ceased economic activity is still being underestimated. There isnt going to be a bounce back.
My instinct is that we have probably seen the worst for this week, and may have an indecisive Friday.
It’s then a race against time as the virus spreads but the northern hemisphere warms. More bad news next week could send markets down again.
Medium term, I don’t think this is going to be a good year for investment, with a depressed market as the poor economic news filters through the system over the summer, and risk of a further crash in the autumn as summer weather recedes and Corona returns.
So, unlike some previous crises (for example 9/11) I don’t think the lower prices represent a great buying opportunity, and I won’t be rushing to buy back the shares I sold earlier in the month.
[1] Actually probably before, as I think the constitution specifies when the electoral college is supposed to meet, but I CBA to look it up.
And Super Tuesday will be out of the way before it takes hold.
Personally I think its time to bring back the idea of Boris Island. Doesn't necessarily have to be explicitly in the Thames Estuary, but at this time of infrastructure investments a new purpose built 4-runway airport with good purpose built transport links rather than constantly messing around with an overcrowded airport in an overcrowded residential area could be a good idea now.
Can't be long in coming.
In a few months Jimmy Smits (ideas on who?) will win the brokered convention. And after that it’s Kevin Spacey suspending the election (aka Mike Pence).
Which leaves us with Harrison Ford throwing a terrorist out of a plane, followed by Bill Pullman shooting down a UFO.
And thus we have my 5 top US screen president moments of all time come true in real life.
They've probably got a couple of weeks or so to think about it, and should be doing so very seriously.
Japan just did something along these lines, though only into early April:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/Abe-seeks-nationwide-school-closures-over-coronavirus
If anything our average has probably edged downwards as 3 of the last 6 were in their 40s when becoming PM (Major, Blair and Cameron)
1. Patients have to pay for healthcare -> will lead to sick people avoiding testing and treatment
2. Large percentage of the population over 75, where mortality rises sharply to 10-15% (our 75+ is 9%, vs China 3.3%)
3. Epidemic of low savings - people in the early stages of it may continue working trying to push through.
4. Fractured healthcare system
5. Massive rates of obesity. Obese people are 40% more likely to develop pneumonia, people with a BMI over 35 are more than twice as likely to develop it compared to a healthy person. This will lead to a substantially higher demand on resources. About 20-25% of the US are in the 35+ BMI bracket.
5. A President very keen on keeping the stock market on a short term high.
6. Gun nuts that won't be keen on quarantine.
1: Very low population density (35 per square km in USA vs 117 per square km in EU and 274 per square km in UK)
2: A geographically very spread out nature. The distances between US states and cities is massive compared to here, will make quarantine much easier.
3: Much lower rates of international travel.
If coronavirus does become an epidemic in America its more likely to affect blue states before the red ones.
And to go all materialistic about things this is an absolute bummer as we have share options that are vesting soon which are going to lose a lot of value.
(a thread)
https://twitter.com/MackayIM/status/1232803777289146368
Remember Nicola has over £1,000 per head more to spend up here than down south.
In hundreds... ?
The Yanks are not testing.
https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1232867016991789058?s=19
https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1232954865732681728?s=21
That guy in California who got his positive result today apparently was tested way back.
https://twitter.com/davidalim/status/1233032552056807426
People who cannot afford to miss work won't take any notice of calls to self-isolate. They'll keep going to work no matter how sick they are because they have no choice.
The idea wasn't really that people would be right at the top of their professions doing high pressure jobs into their old age.
Bloomberg, Biden and Sanders would all be octogenarians well before the end of their first term. Increase in life expectancy notwithstanding, that is OLD. Not just that, but there are pretty clear signs the first two aren't at the peak of their powers mentally, and that the last isn't physically (having had a heart attack recently).
It is pretty extraordinary when the job of President really is as high pressure as they come.
You could point out that Gladstone was 85 and Churchill 81 when they left office. But they were different times, and the truth is that neither was on the top of their game by their final flings; Churchill to the point of really being PM in name only towards the end.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/800-000-to-staff-hospital-with-no-patients-j9h8k5mls
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-51340314
https://inverclydenow.com/news/local-news/inverclyde-loses-out-of-hours-doctor-service-under-temporary-contingency-plan
Your comment is just silly.
I think the figures currently suggest around 60% more men than women.
Not that I am actually opposed to the resurgence in beards in the last decade, far from it, I'm just unable to grow a convincing one myself so I'm vindictive.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/18/coronavirus-is-more-fatal-in-men-than-women-major-study-suggests.html
https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1233024837729296386
The programme lasts for 21 hours (?) each week.
So someone listening for 5 minutes out of 21 hours is counted in the weekly reach.
The number listening at any one point in time is a miniscule fraction of that.
There is a reason all radio audiences are published as weekly reach - because if the programme average (on one day) was published (like TV audiences) they would look very small indeed.
They obviously have no health care and given the nature of their work won't be taking days off to self quarantine on the off chance, while also won't be keen on revealing themselves as potentially having the virus to anybody.
In the ski chalet where the twelve of them were in close quarters for their holiday, it seems to be mostly men who came down with it?
But maybe I misunderstood fatality rate for infection rate