The double digit drops in Tory share don't match up too well with the national polls which show them down by about 4-5 points. They must be doing a lot better elsewhere to compensate.
They won't be doing better elsewhere - Con vote change isn't going to vary that much.
This is what happens if you prompt UKIP in the question - and remember 25% of people are getting UKIP listed FIRST in the voting options.
Then in April / May 2015 they will see literally hundreds of news reports not mentioning UKIP - it's blindingly obvious what is going to happen.
A question that will rear its head next year if the Labour lead persists is whether the Tories will persist with their 40-40 strategy (defend 40 seats, attack 40 seats). In a comparable situation in 2005, Labour started by supporting all its marginals but ended up pulling central support away from places like Broxtowe because they thought we were doomed and "safer" seats needed to be protected. If I was the Tory in their 41st safest seat, I'd be getting restless.
If UKIP are doing this well in polls in late 2014, there will be INTENSE pressure on Cameron to submit to an electoral pact with Farage, whatever it takes. That's when it gets seriously interesting.
Farage has already said he couldn't work with Cameron. What would Cameron offer them to make a pact in their interests?
Ten seats. This brings us to the practical problem: Who are the altruistic Tory candidates in winnable seats who are going to stand down to make way for their enemy?
There's also a strategic problem there, which is that you've gone and given your enemy a huge leg up for future FPTP elections. Once you give UKIP those seats, good luck dislodging their incumbents when the partnership breaks up.
It will be interesting to see what turnout in these seats are come the GE on the back of this type of constituency polling getting some local coverage, its creating a narrative whereby these key marginals sound like safe Labour holds. The danger for the Labour party is that it might dampen down their GTVO operation if it becomes regarded as a nailed on Labour hold. On the other hand, it might not be so helpful to the UKIP cause if its also perceived that a vote for them will in fact be a wasted vote, and simple make it far easier for Labour to comfortable hold on.
But Bown says his polling challenges the findings of polling by Lord Ashcroft, the former Conservative deputy chairman, suggesting Ukip is weakening Tory chances of an overall majority, and is only likely to put Ed Miliband into Number 10.
To be fair these are two seats the Tories were never going to win in 2015 despite coming close in 2010. I hope we get polls from seats like Birmingham Edgbaston, Hampstead & Kilburn, Camborne & Redruth in future.
That is an easy one, Fitaloon was born there while his Dad was stationed nearby in the RAF. Well you did ask. I noted that Financier posted earlier today that his lads went to the same school as Fitaloon too, the RGS in High Wycombe. Fitaloon was a border as his Dad was stationed in some far flung part of the British Empire at the time where there was no secondary school provision. Its a small world.
Another Yougov with Labour on 40%. When does one of the many election strategists who they are paying hundreds of thousands of pounds puts their hand up at one of the many meetings and says "err, I think this is not going to plan....what do we do now"?
Or is it just a cabal of PB Hodges who keep saying to each other "Don't worry the economy will win us the election.... it will be all ok on the night.....just waiting for swingback".
I have to say that I regard Alastair Darling as just an occasionally involved Labour figure head in the Better Together campaign, and Margaret Curran an annoying Glasga bint who sweeps up the road from Westminster to keep her face on the Scottish Telly too often with little effect. What I am finding far more interesting, is the fact that on both sides of the debate we are now seeing 'new' activists on the ground who have not been motivated before to get into the far more local and partisan political campaigning. But the Indy debate has now energised this new group of former bystanders into becoming more active in a political cause, and that is going to make the GE and Holyrood elections a bit more interesting if they stay around and engaged after the Indy Referendum result.
Alistair Darling has been dubbed “comatose” by senior Conservatives, amid signs of growing frustration in Downing Street over the former Labour chancellor’s leadership of the “Better Together” Scottish campaign.
With just 10 months to go before the referendum on Scotland’s independence, the Tory top command is growing increasingly concerned that Mr Darling is not pressing the case for the union hard enough.
“The man has never run a campaign,” said one very senior Tory figure. “He is comatose most of the time.” One Downing Street source described Mr Darling as a “dreary figurehead” for such an important campaign.
A Tory whispering campaign against Mr Darling has been growing in recent weeks. While party insiders accept that the head of the unionist campaign has to be a Labour politician, some Conservatives have been arguing the Labour heavyweight is treating Alex Salmond, Scottish first minister and leader of the Scottish National party, too gently.
"On the face of it you’d think that if the red team was continuing to get the blame with less than a year and a half to go then it would start to appear in the voting numbers. Yet that doesn’t seem to be happening. Labour continue to have good solid leads across all the firms while the Tories continue to struggle."
That is why Labour (in mid term) is only on 40% instead of 50%.
The Express, Sun and the Daily Mail will ask one question, what can a vote for UKIP to do to deliver press freedom in the UK when Ed Miliband and his Union pals would so love to see them muzzled by legislation.
(OT) Programme on BBC4 about Logic. It mostly enjoyable, but it was very annoying when the presenter kept saying "boo-LEE-an" instead of "BOO-li-an". He must be a booliak.
Terrible for the Tories, and, yet, remarkably, EVEN WORSE for the LDs.
UKIP are now, I sense, pretty close to an amazing breakthrough. They are not going away. The electoral odds are still hideously against them - but its now conceivable they could transform UK politics in 2015.
A UKIP-Tory Coalition winning in 2018-2020 is now very possible. Then we leave the EU.
Fascinating.
Fascinating indeed. But I think leaping ahead to a Tory-UKIP coalition might be a tiny bit premature.
The tactical position of many who remain on the Tory right and those who have departed to UKIP is uncannily similar to that of the Labour left in the 1970s. They believe that their party has been taken over by people who are not genuine Tories (genuine socialists). The government is not worth saving because it is really a continuation of nulab (the Tories). What the Tories (Labour) need is a period in opposition during which the sell-out leadership can be purged, the party can return to the true values of 1979 (1945), values which led to landslide victory in the past and can do so again at the election after next. It is obvious that a Miliband (Thatcher) government will be a disaster and couldn't possibly last more than one term.
The Labour left were proved comprehensively wrong on all counts and it took them 18 years to see the error of their ways. The Tory right is in danger repeating the same mistakes.
The interesting one for me are change to the A50 around Uttoxeter. They weren't even on my radar, so I've got no idea what they are. There are two roundabouts on the dual carriageway, and my mum had a very nasty smash at one of them over twenty years ago.
Also interesting is the rebalancing of green subsidies towards offshore power. Not sure what I think about this atm, and is it a reaction to the recent announcement by RWE not to go ahead with their £4 billion windfarm off the Devon coast?
Nobody has yet suggested that the Tories might not necessarily prefer defeat under the Chumocracy to ridding themselves of the Cameron Clique. Besides the Osborne placemen who would be sorry to see them out?
Tricky though, isn't it? Ditching a Prime Minister is a very risky move, and there's just enough reason for hope to stop them rolling the dice.
NIMBYwankers shifting money to offshore wind subsidies from cheaper onshore and solar.
Why not put all the electricity pylons underground while we're at it just in case these people who are offended by barn conversions decide they are upset by unsightly wires.
I think that was pretty much what anoyhernick was saying. That there are some on the right who want Cameron to be defeated so that they can take over the party.
Nobody has yet suggested that the Tories might not necessarily prefer defeat under the Chumocracy to ridding themselves of the Cameron Clique. Besides the Osborne placemen who would be sorry to see them out?
NIMBYwankers shifting money to offshore wind subsidies from cheaper onshore and solar.
Why not put all the electricity pylons underground while we're at it just in case these people who are offended by barn conversions decide they are upset by unsightly wires.
These marginals polls just confirm that Ukip are equal parts right-wing breakaway as well as the new protest party, except they can't yet take westminster seats like the Lib Dems regularly did
I think Dave may have done something very strange in political history - got the policies very much right (education, economy, etc) but totally blown the politics. UKIP aren't going to go away. In fact I suspect there is very much a place for a populist right of centre party of the 'non-chum' persuasion (as tim might put it) and at some point they'll start winning seats.
In one sense this is a tragedy as it will allow us to be governed into the dust by lefties for a while. In the longer run it is likely that the right will get its act together and unsplit at some future point. Prepare yourselves personally for a decade of financial bad news, debts, deficits, defaults, etc and get out of cash as it will soon be worth nothing.
How many UKIP voters did actually vote in 2010? That has to be the key question. If they did not vote then, whatever they tell the pollsters now a lot of them are unlikely to vote in 2015.
Alistair Darling has been dubbed “comatose” by senior Conservatives, amid signs of growing frustration in Downing Street over the former Labour chancellor’s leadership of the “Better Together” Scottish campaign.
With just 10 months to go before the referendum on Scotland’s independence, the Tory top command is growing increasingly concerned that Mr Darling is not pressing the case for the union hard enough.
“The man has never run a campaign,” said one very senior Tory figure. “He is comatose most of the time.” One Downing Street source described Mr Darling as a “dreary figurehead” for such an important campaign.
A Tory whispering campaign against Mr Darling has been growing in recent weeks. While party insiders accept that the head of the unionist campaign has to be a Labour politician, some Conservatives have been arguing the Labour heavyweight is treating Alex Salmond, Scottish first minister and leader of the Scottish National party, too gently.
A pretty farcical story after a poll showing Yes on 27 and No on 56, two days after the Nats launch their Big White Paper.
Darling is winning the referendum hands down. If the Tories want to whisper against someone, they could whisper and ask why they elevated the doleful Carmichael to Scottish Sec.
Of course, it could be that he is doing rather too well for the Tories. I have heard it mentioned that the Tories think that by losing Scotland, they would have an inbuilt majority at Westminster.
If the Jocks vote to stay in does that mean there will be no change to the arrangements in Westminster? Would it necessitate Devomax or not? Will we get EV4EL? The questions around a NO are much more interesting than the hypotheticals around a YES. MAybe DAve's plan is to see the referendum lost, grant quasi independence through full Devomax in the UK and pass an EV4EL bill. What's not to like?
Alistair Darling has been dubbed “comatose” by senior Conservatives, amid signs of growing frustration in Downing Street over the former Labour chancellor’s leadership of the “Better Together” Scottish campaign.
With just 10 months to go before the referendum on Scotland’s independence, the Tory top command is growing increasingly concerned that Mr Darling is not pressing the case for the union hard enough.
“The man has never run a campaign,” said one very senior Tory figure. “He is comatose most of the time.” One Downing Street source described Mr Darling as a “dreary figurehead” for such an important campaign.
A Tory whispering campaign against Mr Darling has been growing in recent weeks. While party insiders accept that the head of the unionist campaign has to be a Labour politician, some Conservatives have been arguing the Labour heavyweight is treating Alex Salmond, Scottish first minister and leader of the Scottish National party, too gently.
A pretty farcical story after a poll showing Yes on 27 and No on 56, two days after the Nats launch their Big White Paper.
Darling is winning the referendum hands down. If the Tories want to whisper against someone, they could whisper and ask why they elevated the doleful Carmichael to Scottish Sec.
You need to get out of your bubble more, NO are tanking and Darling is worse than dismal , rarely seen and when he is he is pathetic.
Apart from which in the event of a Yes vote, there could well be three or even four negotiations between the two governments in the eighteen months that Salmond has given for the timescale for independence.
Westminster in May 2015, Labour wins with Scots MP's to make up a majority. They will be withdrawn on Salmond's independence day and a Tory/UKIP government takes over. Also, there is the growing possibility that the SNP may lose the Holyrood election in 2016.
People underestimate the personal antipathy towards Brown at the last GE among English WWC voters, and that probably cost Labour 5% in many of their English seats. It looks like that vote has come home, regardless of what they think about Miliband.
The 2010 Lib Demmers who drifted to Labour since the nasty Party reappeared aren't coming back. No matter how much of a fake recovery the chancellor buys with more personal debt.
The 2010 Lib Demmers who drifted to Labour since the nasty Party reappeared aren't coming back. No matter how much of a fake recovery the chancellor buys with more personal debt.
The 2010 Lib Demmers who drifted to Labour since the nasty Party reappeared aren't coming back. No matter how much of a fake recovery the chancellor buys with more personal debt.
Morning Ben.
Interesting post. I have tried to verify your claims that the current economic recovery is being bought with increased personal debt. I am having difficulties.
Here are the latest Bank of England figures for Consumer Credit (both credit card and from other sources):
=================== Bank of England M4 Lending to Households ------------------- Consumer Credit £ millions ------------------- 2012 Q1 344,083 Q2 338,947 Q3 336,053 Q4 333,515
2013 Q1 316,012 Q2 316,092 Q2 323,253 Oct 107,668 ===================
Can you point me to the relevant increases as I seem to have missed them. Perhaps I am reading the column upside down?
The 2010 Lib Demmers who drifted to Labour since the nasty Party reappeared aren't coming back. No matter how much of a fake recovery the chancellor buys with more personal debt.
The 2010 Lib Demmers who drifted to Labour since the nasty Party reappeared aren't coming back. No matter how much of a fake recovery the chancellor buys with more personal debt.
Complacent much?
As complacent as Tories who thought any old growth would guarantee a rapturous thanks from an electorate battered by 3 years Tory flatlining and cuts?
The 2010 Lib Demmers who drifted to Labour since the nasty Party reappeared aren't coming back. No matter how much of a fake recovery the chancellor buys with more personal debt.
Morning Ben.
Interesting post. I have tried to verify your claims that the current economic recovery is being bought with increased personal debt. I am having difficulties.
Here are the latest Bank of England figures for Consumer Credit (both credit card and from other sources):
=================== Bank of England M4 Lending to Households ------------------- Consumer Credit £ millions ------------------- 2012 Q1 344,083 Q2 338,947 Q3 336,053 Q4 333,515
2013 Q1 316,012 Q2 316,092 Q2 323,253 Oct 107,668 ===================
Can you point me to the relevant increases as I seem to have missed them. Perhaps I am reading the column upside down?
The 2010 Lib Demmers who drifted to Labour since the nasty Party reappeared aren't coming back. No matter how much of a fake recovery the chancellor buys with more personal debt.
Morning Ben.
Interesting post. I have tried to verify your claims that the current economic recovery is being bought with increased personal debt. I am having difficulties.
Here are the latest Bank of England figures for Consumer Credit (both credit card and from other sources):
=================== Bank of England M4 Lending to Households ------------------- Consumer Credit £ millions ------------------- 2012 Q1 344,083 Q2 338,947 Q3 336,053 Q4 333,515
2013 Q1 316,012 Q2 316,092 Q2 323,253 Oct 107,668 ===================
Can you point me to the relevant increases as I seem to have missed them. Perhaps I am reading the column upside down?
...and reductions in savings.
Certainly not financed by exports and investment as is usual in a proper recovery (as under Major for example).
The 2010 Lib Demmers who drifted to Labour since the nasty Party reappeared aren't coming back. No matter how much of a fake recovery the chancellor buys with more personal debt.
Morning Ben.
Interesting post. I have tried to verify your claims that the current economic recovery is being bought with increased personal debt. I am having difficulties.
Here are the latest Bank of England figures for Consumer Credit (both credit card and from other sources):
=================== Bank of England M4 Lending to Households ------------------- Consumer Credit £ millions ------------------- 2012 Q1 344,083 Q2 338,947 Q3 336,053 Q4 333,515
2013 Q1 316,012 Q2 316,092 Q2 323,253 Oct 107,668 ===================
Can you point me to the relevant increases as I seem to have missed them. Perhaps I am reading the column upside down?
How many UKIP voters did actually vote in 2010? That has to be the key question. If they did not vote then, whatever they tell the pollsters now a lot of them are unlikely to vote in 2015.
Lots, I think. It's partly as many didn't have a UKIP or similar candidate and partly that they'd not focused on UKIP as a party to express their "you all suck" message. Their stated certainty to vote this time is usually the highest of all the parties - "at last we can show what we think!" It's an illusion by all the other parties to think they might get lots of their votes - these are not conventional left-right floating voters.
But from the viewpoint of deciding the Lab-Con outcome it doesn't much matter, unless they win lots of seats, which still seems unlikely. If they vote UKIP or don't vote makes no difference to the outcome when they don't win (though naturally it will affect the atmosphere of politics).
The interesting one for me are change to the A50 around Uttoxeter. They weren't even on my radar, so I've got no idea what they are. There are two roundabouts on the dual carriageway, and my mum had a very nasty smash at one of them over twenty years ago.
Yes a surprise to me as well .The A50 is a great road as it is, never congested when I go on it at least. Wonder what they have planned for it?
The traffic cones hotline is open for business today I hope!!
The 2010 Lib Demmers who drifted to Labour since the nasty Party reappeared aren't coming back. No matter how much of a fake recovery the chancellor buys with more personal debt.
Complacent much?
As complacent as Tories who thought any old growth would guarantee a rapturous thanks from an electorate battered by 3 years Tory flatlining and cuts?
The 2010 Lib Demmers who drifted to Labour since the nasty Party reappeared aren't coming back. No matter how much of a fake recovery the chancellor buys with more personal debt.
Complacent much?
As complacent as Tories who thought any old growth would guarantee a rapturous thanks from an electorate battered by 3 years Tory flatlining and cuts?
What cuts?
Tesco off 1.5% in Q3 is good for ed, bad for dave.
The 2010 Lib Demmers who drifted to Labour since the nasty Party reappeared aren't coming back. No matter how much of a fake recovery the chancellor buys with more personal debt.
Morning Ben.
...I
Do those figures include or exclude mortgages ?
They exclude mortgages, Pulpstar.
Main reasons for separating the two is that mortgages are secured (and therefore are a different type of risk to the lending institution) and, more importantly, that the funds disbursed are (mostly) used for investment rather than consumption expenditure.
Anyway here goes. Note that these figures include lending to Housing Associations as well as Households:
=================== Bank of England Lending secured on Dwellings ------------------- £ mn ------------------- 2012 Q1 33,781 Q2 34,488 Q3 37,315 Q4 37,367
2013 Q1 33,790 Q2 41,912 Q2 49,306 Oct 17,620 ===================
There has been an material increase in mortgage lending, though much of this is offset by existing borrowers paying down mortgage balances. It would not be valid on the basis of these figures to claim that that the recovery is based on an increase in consumer expenditure: they demonstrate an increase in household investment and, to the extent that new borrowing exceeds paydowns, an increase in household borrowing.
Just seen the supposed quiz that Boris failed. Some real nonsense questions in there - particularly the last one.
The first one about the bears was clever, tho - I only got it right after several minutes' thought. It's almost impossible to work out immediately as it is deliberately confusing and lateral. No wonder he failed.
Really? My first thought was it must be on the North Pole, just had to guess at the colour of bears that live there.
Got 3/3 but the last one was for the wrong reasons so it wasn't a truly perfect score
Just seen the supposed quiz that Boris failed. Some real nonsense questions in there - particularly the last one.
The first one about the bears was clever, tho - I only got it right after several minutes' thought. It's almost impossible to work out immediately as it is deliberately confusing and lateral. No wonder he failed.
Really? My first thought was it must be on the North Pole, just had to guess at the colour of bears that live there.
Got 3/3 but the last one was for the wrong reasons so it wasn't a truly perfect score
Then you are smarter than me. Took me a couple of minutes to work out it had to be on the North Pole, at first it seemed logically impossible to have a house with four south-facing walls.
Sort out PB! If I'm going to be up half the night watching cricket, I want to lurk over a Sean T v Tim battle! It might be more intense than the cricket!
Comments
There's also a strategic problem there, which is that you've gone and given your enemy a huge leg up for future FPTP elections. Once you give UKIP those seats, good luck dislodging their incumbents when the partnership breaks up.
Or is it just a cabal of PB Hodges who keep saying to each other "Don't worry the economy will win us the election.... it will be all ok on the night.....just waiting for swingback".
On a personal note....I am with the PB Hodges.
Keep up the good work.
"On the face of it you’d think that if the red team was continuing to get the blame with less than a year and a half to go then it would start to appear in the voting numbers. Yet that doesn’t seem to be happening. Labour continue to have good solid leads across all the firms while the Tories continue to struggle."
That is why Labour (in mid term) is only on 40% instead of 50%.
It will not be all bad. Indeed it may have some positive aspects, though not for the economy if Balls keeps his position.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25201064
Also interesting is the rebalancing of green subsidies towards offshore power. Not sure what I think about this atm, and is it a reaction to the recent announcement by RWE not to go ahead with their £4 billion windfarm off the Devon coast?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100026127/oecd-educational-report-pisa-fever-is-causing-east-asias-demographic-collapse/
They're very very good at maths but very very bad at reproducing in the Far East!
In one sense this is a tragedy as it will allow us to be governed into the dust by lefties for a while. In the longer run it is likely that the right will get its act together and unsplit at some future point. Prepare yourselves personally for a decade of financial bad news, debts, deficits, defaults, etc and get out of cash as it will soon be worth nothing.
Westminster in May 2015, Labour wins with Scots MP's to make up a majority. They will be withdrawn on Salmond's independence day and a Tory/UKIP government takes over. Also, there is the growing possibility that the SNP may lose the Holyrood election in 2016.
Interesting timings.
Labour never went away.
Interesting post. I have tried to verify your claims that the current economic recovery is being bought with increased personal debt. I am having difficulties.
Here are the latest Bank of England figures for Consumer Credit (both credit card and from other sources): Can you point me to the relevant increases as I seem to have missed them. Perhaps I am reading the column upside down?
Or was the £120bn increase in personal debt in 2007 in some way acceptable that the £20bn increase in personal debt in 2013 isn't ?
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?week=nov24.2013#graph=46204
Certainly not financed by exports and investment as is usual in a proper recovery (as under Major for example).
But from the viewpoint of deciding the Lab-Con outcome it doesn't much matter, unless they win lots of seats, which still seems unlikely. If they vote UKIP or don't vote makes no difference to the outcome when they don't win (though naturally it will affect the atmosphere of politics).
They really are in crisis. The complacency of their supporters on here and in the discredited rightwing press is amusing.
The 2015 fallout will be an entertaining watch.
Tesco off 1.5% in Q3 is good for ed, bad for dave.
Main reasons for separating the two is that mortgages are secured (and therefore are a different type of risk to the lending institution) and, more importantly, that the funds disbursed are (mostly) used for investment rather than consumption expenditure.
Anyway here goes. Note that these figures include lending to Housing Associations as well as Households: There has been an material increase in mortgage lending, though much of this is offset by existing borrowers paying down mortgage balances. It would not be valid on the basis of these figures to claim that that the recovery is based on an increase in consumer expenditure: they demonstrate an increase in household investment and, to the extent that new borrowing exceeds paydowns, an increase in household borrowing.
Got 3/3 but the last one was for the wrong reasons so it wasn't a truly perfect score